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    Legend Step 1 - Calculate Home Team Strength Rates: Goals Scored GS

    Uploaded by

    Andr Pry
    1. The document outlines steps to calculate team strength ratings and predict match outcomes using expected goals. 2. It provides home and away team statistics for all Premier League teams in a given season and calculates attack, defense, and overall strength ratings. 3. To predict a match, the user enters the home and away teams. Their strength ratings are used to calculate the expected number of goals scored by each team and predict the score, correct score probabilities, and 1X2 match odds.

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    Legend Step 1 - Calculate Home Team Strength Rates: Goals Scored GS

    Uploaded by

    Andr Pry
    486 views6 pages
    1. The document outlines steps to calculate team strength ratings and predict match outcomes using expected goals. 2. It provides home and away team statistics for all Premier League teams in a given season and calculates attack, defense, and overall strength ratings. 3. To predict a match, the user enters the home and away teams. Their strength ratings are used to calculate the expected number of goals scored by each team and predict the score, correct score probabilities, and 1X2 match odds.

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    Excel poisson

    Original Title

    poisson-distribution-football-2

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    1. The document outlines steps to calculate team strength ratings and predict match outcomes using expected goals. 2. It provides home and away team statistics for all Premier League teams in a given season and calculates attack, defense, and overall strength ratings. 3. To predict a match, the user enters the home and away teams. Their strength ratings are used to calculate the expected number of goals scored by each team and predict the score, correct score probabilities, and 1X2 match odds.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    486 views6 pages

    Legend Step 1 - Calculate Home Team Strength Rates: Goals Scored GS

    Uploaded by

    Andr Pry
    1. The document outlines steps to calculate team strength ratings and predict match outcomes using expected goals. 2. It provides home and away team statistics for all Premier League teams in a given season and calculates attack, defense, and overall strength ratings. 3. To predict a match, the user enters the home and away teams. Their strength ratings are used to calculate the expected number of goals scored by each team and predict the score, correct score probabilities, and 1X2 match odds.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    You are on page 1of 6

    Legend Step 1 - Calculate home team strength rates

    Average → Avg.
    Goals against → GA Home team avg.
    # ENTER HOME TEAM STATISTICS
    Goals scored → GS GS and GA
    Matches played → MP Team MP GS GA Avg GS Avg GA
    Arsenal 19 42 16 2.21 0.84
    Bournemouth 19 30 25 1.58 1.32
    Brighton 19 19 28 1.00 1.47
    Burnley 19 24 32 1.26 1.68
    Cardiff 19 21 38 1.11 2.00
    Chelsea 19 39 12 2.05 0.63
    Crystal Palace 19 19 23 1.00 1.21
    Everton 19 30 21 1.58 1.11
    Fulham 19 22 36 1.16 1.89
    Huddersfield 19 10 31 0.53 1.63
    Leicester 19 24 20 1.26 1.05
    Liverpool 19 55 10 2.89 0.53
    Manchester City 19 57 12 3.00 0.63
    Manchester United 19 33 25 1.74 1.32
    Newcastle United 19 24 25 1.26 1.32
    Southampton 19 27 30 1.42 1.58
    Tottenham 19 34 16 1.79 0.84
    Watford 19 26 28 1.37 1.47
    West Ham 19 32 27 1.68 1.42
    Wolverhampton Wanderers 19 28 21 1.47 1.11

    League average - home goals 1.57 1.25


    team strength rates ► Step 2 - Calculate away team strength rates

    Away team avg.


    Home team strength rates # ENTER AWAY TEAM STATISTICS
    GS and GA
    Attack Defense Overall Team MP GS GA Avg GS Avg GA
    1.41 0.67 0.74 Arsenal 19 31 35 1.63 1.84
    1.01 1.05 -0.04 Bournemouth 19 26 45 1.37 2.37
    0.64 1.18 -0.54 Brighton 19 16 32 0.84 1.68
    0.81 1.34 -0.54 Burnley 19 21 36 1.11 1.89
    0.70 1.60 -0.89 Cardiff 19 13 31 0.68 1.63
    1.31 0.50 0.80 Chelsea 19 24 27 1.26 1.42
    0.64 0.97 -0.33 Crystal Palace 19 32 30 1.68 1.58
    1.01 0.88 0.12 Everton 19 24 25 1.26 1.32
    0.74 1.51 -0.77 Fulham 19 12 45 0.63 2.37
    0.34 1.30 -0.97 Huddersfield 19 12 45 0.63 2.37
    0.81 0.84 -0.03 Leicester 19 27 28 1.42 1.47
    1.85 0.42 1.43 Liverpool 19 34 12 1.79 0.63
    1.91 0.50 1.41 Manchester City 19 38 11 2.00 0.58
    1.11 1.05 0.06 Manchester United 19 32 29 1.68 1.53
    0.81 1.05 -0.25 Newcastle United 19 18 23 0.95 1.21
    0.91 1.26 -0.35 Southampton 19 18 35 0.95 1.84
    1.14 0.67 0.47 Tottenham 19 33 23 1.74 1.21
    0.87 1.18 -0.30 Watford 19 26 31 1.37 1.63
    1.07 1.13 -0.06 West Ham 19 20 28 1.05 1.47
    0.94 0.88 0.06 Wolverhampton Wanderers 19 19 25 1.00 1.32

    League average - away goals 1.25 1.57


    team strength rates ► Sheet2 - Match predictions

    Away team strength rates

    Attack Defense Overall


    1.30 1.17 0.13
    1.09 1.51 -0.42
    0.67 1.07 -0.40
    0.88 1.21 -0.33
    0.55 1.04 -0.49
    1.01 0.91 0.10
    1.34 1.01 0.34
    1.01 0.84 0.17
    0.50 1.51 -1.01
    0.50 1.51 -1.01
    1.13 0.94 0.19
    1.43 0.40 1.03
    1.60 0.37 1.23
    1.34 0.97 0.37
    0.76 0.77 -0.02
    0.76 1.17 -0.42
    1.39 0.77 0.61
    1.09 1.04 0.05
    0.84 0.94 -0.10
    0.80 0.84 -0.04
    Step 3 - Pick match, and calculate expected goals (xG) ► Step

    # ENTER THE MATCH Expected number


    Strength rates
    YOU WANT TO PREDICT of goals scored # 0
    Team Attack Defense xG 0 6.4%
    Home Manchester United 1.11 1.05 0.64 1 13.5%
    Away Manchester City 1.60 0.37 2.10 2 14.2%

    Away team goals


    3 10.0%
    4 5.2%
    5 2.2%
    6 0.8%
    7 0.2%
    8 0.1%
    9 0.0%
    10 0.0%
    Step 4 - Predict correct score market ► Step 5 - Predict match od

    Home team goals 1X2 Match odds


    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Chance
    8.7% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Odds
    9.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    6.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Step 5 - Predict match odds market

    1X2 Match odds


    Home (1) Draw (X) Away (2)
    10.1% 18.5% 71.4%
    9.90 5.40 1.40

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