Dalal Streer
Dalal Streer
Dalal Streer
28
Cover Story 23
Contrarian
Investing
Is For All
Seasons!
Recommendations Regulars
10 12 13 06
07
08
Editor’s Keyboard
Company Index
Market View
Choice Scrip Low Priced Scrip Hot Chips 14 Technicals
38 Tax Column
16 Analysis
41
44 Reviews
45 Kerbside
QueryBoard
Poonawalla Fincorp
Potential To Outpace National Growth Subscribers can access
the complete databank
18
consisting of more than
3500 companies on our
Special Feature website www.DSIJ.in
The risk-off trade has already pushed FIIs on the back foot, leading to withdrawal of capital
from the markets. Added to this is the recent announcement of the Federal Reserve tapering
expected to commence earlier than anticipated. We continue to believe that the bulls are not
out of the woods yet. Yes, the markets correcting substantially will lead to creation of pockets
that can deliver outperformance in time to come. Nonetheless, it may be premature to buy
into such pockets as yet. Remain cautious as of now as the sentiment has once again entered
unknown territory. The new unknown may not negatively impact the market moods as it did
at the beginning of 2020.
On the positive side, the market that was relentlessly holding on to its levels at the top is now
providing some rational levels where investors can start negotiating for bargains. Cash, my
dear readers, will be worth in gold in the coming weeks as the equity market starts to get
attractive again. In our cover story on contrarian investing, we have spelt out in no
unambiguous manner the qualities one must possess to beat the markets and to be a
successful contrarian investor. It is in times like today that spell high volatility when the
qualities of a contrarian investor will ensure that you not only stay focused on your original
investment philosophy but also make handsome money.
In our special stories we have highlighted the additional efforts one must make to take
exposure in micro-cap companies. Micro-cap investing can lead your path to discover
multibaggers. The kind of returns one can gain by micro-cap investing is mindboggling;
however, the path towards micro-cap investing is not convenient and traditional investment
parameters may not apply most of the times. The current issue also carries an in-depth report
on the plastic industry and covers the various opportunities the plastic industry stands to
offer from an investor’s perspective. The bright outlook may excite some of our long-term
investor readers. Looking at the market condition which is in a corrective mood, it is
important that you stay away from the popular stocks that are over-owned.
It is easy to be clingy in times like now where our recent memory of select popular stocks’
outperformance does not allow us to get rid of them even when the so-called stocks are
showing weakness. It is time to be unemotional and it is time to protect gains and have some
cash to buy when the risk-reward ratio is utterly in favour of the investors. Trading by
headlines regarding the new variant of the virus in the past few days shows the lack of
confidence on the part of the bulls and it is likely that bears will have an upper hand in the
coming weeks. However, this does not mean one should short in the market. Churn your
portfolio and stick with high-quality defensive names for the moment. Pharmaceutical and
IT stocks can provide the alpha. A slow and staggered investment approach spread across the
next 4-6 weeks can be a strategy to consider.
RAJESH V PADODE
Managing Director & Editor
www.dsij.in/apps.aspx
Vol. 37. No. 01 • DEC 06 - 19, 2021 enquiry@dsij.in linkedin.com/in/DalalStreetInvestmentJournal
Founder Graphics
Late V B Padode Vipin Bendale
Current Assets and Liabilities
Managing Director & Editor Subscription & Customer Service
Rajesh V Padode Utkarsh Sawale The cover story in your latest issue on the relevance of value investing was
simply bona fide. A particular criterion for stock selection using value investing
Executive Editors Compliances and Internal Audit
Arvind Manor
principles was that current assets should be at least two times the current
Yogesh Supekar
Shashikant Singh
liabilities. Could you elucidate the same? -
Marketing & Sales
Farid Khan - VP
- Parul Agarwal
Copy Editors
Avalokita Pandey Mumbai:
Huned Contractor Editor Responds: We appreciate your query and are pleased to hear that you
Anand Chinchole - Sr. Manager
found our cover story in the recent issue fruitful. Current assets are those assets of
Research Delhi: a company that are expected to be sold or used as a result of standard business
Srinivasa Sharan Shammo Teshwar - Sr. Manager operations over the next year. These include cash, cash equivalents, accounts
Karan Bhojwani
Domain Experts receivable, inventory, marketable securities and other liquid assets. Current
Vinayak Gangule
Anthony Fernandes Hemant Rustagi liabilities are a company’s short-term financial obligations that are due and
Shreya Chaware Jayesh Dadia expected to be settled within the next one year. These include accounts payable,
short-term debt, dividend payable and tax payable and are typically settled using
current assets. If a company has current assets at least two times its current
liabilities, it illustrates that the company is highly capable of remaining solvent for
a longer period and will rarely face problems to meet its short-term financial
obligations. Hope this helps. Keep writing to us!
DSIJ Private Limited
Recommendations
For Customer Service Company/Scheme Reco. Price (`) Column Page No
Affle (India) Ltd l Buy 1149.25 Queryboard 42
020-66663803 OR service@DSIJ.in
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise l Buy 5726.65 Technicals 15
Mumbai Office
419-A, 4th Floor, Arun Chambers, Tardeo, Next to AC Market
Goodyear India Ltd l Buy 966.55 Queryboard 43
Mumbai - 400034 022-43476012/16/17 HDFC l Hold 2676.40 Reviews 44
I
India’s economic recovery
ndian frontline equity indices
BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 tumbled
Indian stock market history. has likely strengthened in
by ~5.90 per cent each during the The Paytm debacle dimmed the mood the previous quarter,
fortnight. These benchmarks fell and added woes to investor sentiment.
to their lowest level in three As a consequence, other technology boosted by services
months, suffering their worst single-day
drop since April 12, 2021 on November
start-ups such as MobiKwik and Oyo
may delay their IPO by a few months.
activity that recovered
26, 2021 on weak global cues as a Goldman Sachs in its recent Macro after pandemic-related
consequence of the detection of the new Outlook 2022 note has revised its
corona virus variant, the Omicron, projection for gross domestic product mobility restrictions were
which could possibly be vaccine-
resistant. Nifty 50 briefly dropped below
(GDP) to 9.1 per cent from the earlier
estimate of 8 per cent for calendar year
eased.
its key psychological level of 17,000 to hit 2022, while for FY22 it has pegged to boost average revenue per user
an intraday low of 16,985 and Sensex economic growth at 8.5 per cent. The (ARPU) and improve its financial
plunged by as much as 3 per cent i.e. global research and brokerage house health. Immediately following Bharti
1,801 points. On similar lines, BSE expects a rise in core inflation as Airtel’s price hike, Vodafone Idea raised
Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices plunged manufacturers pass on input cost its prepaid tariff plans today by 25 per
5.77 per cent and 3.97 per cent to close at increases to consumers and pegs India’s cent. Likewise, later in the week Reliance
24,846.51 and 28,071.41, respectively. headline consumer price inflation at 5.8 Jio announced up to 21 per cent hike in
per cent on a year-on-year basis in 2022 its prepaid tariffs starting December 1,
BSE Realty index nosedived 10.68 per from 5.2 per cent in 2021. 2021, indicating an end to the low tariff
cent over the recent two-week period, regime in the telecom sector. Trading
emerging as the top loser. BSE Metal and Over the fortnight, Bharti Airtel data shows that both DIIs and FIIs were
Auto indices corrected by ~7.60 per cent announced that it will raise tariffs for all net buyers during the fortnight to the
each to close at 18,703.68 and 24,330.73, its prepaid users by up to 25 per cent tune of `15,712.70 crore and 9,805.89
respectively. Only the BSE Healthcare from November 26, 20221 in a major bid crore, respectively.
index ended in the green territory with
gains of 1.86 per cent. As per the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI), India’s foreign
exchange reserves increased by USD 289
million to USD 640.401 billion for the
week ended November 19, 2021. Foreign
currency assets (FCA), a major
component of the overall reserves,
increased by USD 225 million to touch
USD 575.712 billion.
CHARGED FOR GROWTH `95.04 crore which saw a rise of 27 per cent
QoQ and an increase of 71 per cent YoY.
I
High returns for stakeholders’ capital
a drop in its annual profitability. The
earnings have been rising consecutively
ndian Energy Exchange (IEX) is the year on year. The EPS recorded in fiscal
first and largest energy exchange in 2011 was at `0.69 while in fiscal 2021 it
India providing a nationwide, has grown to 8.87. This consistent growth
automated trading platform for in profitability has led to exceptional
physical delivery of electricity. The returns for its stakeholders such that the
exchange platform enables efficient price ROE stood at 47.37 per cent and the
discovery and increases the accessibility ROCE at 61.6 per cent. The company is
and transparency of the power market in almost debt-free. The stock is trading
India while also enhancing the speed and near the PE level of 84.
efficiency of trade execution. It has the
Best of LAST ONE Year
following product offerings: Day-Ahead The company enjoys a near monopoly
Name of Reco Exit/CMP Absolute Annual
Market (DAM) for next day delivery, Company Price Price (`) Gains Returns status. IEX has an overall market share of
Term-Ahead Market (TAM) for delivery (`) (%) (%) more than 95 per cent, (RTM – 99.9 per
up to 11 days, Real Time Market for Trent Ltd. 659.20 928.80 40.90 3471.63 cent, GTAM – 99.9 per cent, DAM+TAM
delivery within one hour, Green Term- KPIT Tech. Ltd. 134.95 198.95 47.42 451.20 – 92 per cent). Electricity volume has
Ahead Market for intraday, daily and Gujarat Gas Ltd. 288.20 435.10 50.97 297.24 grown with a CAGR of 32 per cent since
weekly, and renewable energy certificates Polycab India Ltd. 824.95 1144.40 38.72 282.80 2008, increasing from 2,616 units in FY09
(REC) along with energy saving certifi- ICICI Bank Ltd. 497.45 674.00 35.49 252.48 to 74,638 in FY21. In FY21, highest yearly
cates (ESCERTS). volumes have been recorded at 74 BU.
increased by 17 per cent. The net profit IEX is leveraging and steadily investing in
All these products offer traders various margin for the year ended FY21 stood at technology and deepening the power
opportunities for strategic trading and 64.6 per cent, which is phenomenal. market through new products such as
investing. The company reported net Real-Time Market (RTM). IEX is
sales of `317.85 crore in FY21 compared A strong operational performance with expected to launch some new products
to `257.13 crore in FY20. That is a efficient working capital management was like Long-Duration Contracts, Cross
reasonable growth of nearly 24 per cent. witnessed with a growth of nearly 142 per Border Trade, Green TAM and DAM, and
IEX’s electricity traded volume in FY21 cent in the cash flows from operating Exchange-Based Ancillary Market. With
grew by 37 per cent on a YoY basis. The activities increasing from India’s power consumption expected to
PBIDT stood at `289.01 crore in FY21 as `306 crore in FY20 to `126 crore in FY21. grow at 8-9 per cent during FY 2022, its
against `242.43 crore in the previous Net sales for the quarter ended September management expects significant growth
year. That is a growth of around 20 per 2021 stood at almost for the exchange markets. By virtue of all
cent. Also, the PAT stood at `205 crore `110.38 crore. That’s a growth of 21.26 per these factors, we recommend our
while it stood at `175 crore in FY20. PAT cent QoQ basis and a growth of 55.64 per reader-investors to BUY the scrip. DS
CMP
Monthly Stock Market Returns Shareholding Pattern Last Five Quarters (`/Cr) ( Consolidated)
BSE Code: 540750 CMP: `744.05 (`)
FV: `1 BSE Volume: 6,48,490
as of Sept., 2021 Particulars Sep-21 Jun-21 Mar-21 Dec-20 Sep-20
Date: 30/11/2021 Total Income 110.38 91.03 93.82 85.23 70.92
Promoters --
Other Income 11.92 11.85 6.52 10.86 7.79
Public 90.69 Operating Profit 106.97 86.71 83.97 80.45 63.25
Interest 0.47 0.55 0.48 0.52 0.51
Others 0.31
Net Profit 77.39 62.10 60.86 58.14 44.34
Total 100 Equity 29.86 29.86 29.85 29.85 29.84
N
at 21.71 per cent while the ROCE was
even better at 29.65 per cent. The stock is
MDC Ltd. engages in the trading at a price to earnings multiple of
exploration of minerals. It just 3.76 versus industry PE of 6.46. It
operates through the has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07.
following segments: iron PRICED SCRIP NMDC’s operational performance is
ore, pellets, other minerals expected to remain strong over the next
and reconciliation items. NMDC is Best of LAST ONE Year
two years with the potential to ramp up
under the administrative control of the Name of Reco Exit/CMP Absolute Annual
in iron production given the recent
Ministry of Steel, Government of India. Company Price Price (`) Gains Returns resumption of production from the
The company is India’s single largest iron (`) (%) (%) Donimalai mine and above historical
AVT Natural 43.65 66.00 51.20 11071.27%
ore producer. Since 2008 the company average domestic high iron ore prices.
has been categorised by the Department Indraprastha Medical 54.40 71.75 31.89 1852.67% Potential value unlocking from demerg-
of Public Enterprises as ‘Navratna’ public Ashoka Buildcon 80.25 116.95 45.73 525.13% er and strategic sale of its steel plant is a
sector enterprise. NMDC also operates a Bharat Electronics 96.65 145.90 50.96 336.53% key near-term catalyst.
diamond mine, Diamond Mining Project Marksans Pharma 58.00 79.80 37.59 270.09%
at Panna in Madhya Pradesh, which is The company has a history of paying
the only mechanised diamond mine in huge dividends. The dividend yield was
Asia, with yearly production of around activities increasing from `2,125.97 crore recorded at 5.75 per cent. NMDC’s
38,149 carats as of FY 2019. It also has a in FY20 to `7,266.11 crore in FY21. In dividend payout could improve consid-
sponge iron unit of 200 TPD at Paloncha Q2FY22, revenue grew by 204.66 per erably as the strategic sale of the steel
in Telangana. cent YoY to `6,793.51 crore from plant would improve its cash position
`2,229.89 crore in Q2FY21. However, on while the core iron ore mining business
The company recorded net sales of a sequential basis the top-line grew by 4.3 is expected to generate steady EBITDA.
`15,370.06 crore in FY21, a 31.38 per per cent. Valuation of the core iron ore business is
cent increase YoY. PBIDT was recorded attractive given a steep discount to global
at `8,789.27 crore, higher by 46.44 per PBIDT except for other income was mining peers. NMDC has made a
cent. PAT increased significantly by 73.47 reported at `3,112.51 crore, up by 202.53 comprehensive plan to enhance iron ore
per cent when compared to the previous per cent as compared to the year-ago production capacity to 67 MTPA to meet
fiscal to reach `6,247.47 crore.A strong period and the corresponding margin the growing requirements of iron ore of
cash balance was witnessed with a was reported at 45.82 per cent, contract- the Indian steel sector. By virtue of all
growth of nearly 241 per cent as can be ing by 32 basis points YoY. On a QoQ these factors, we recommend our
seen in the cash flows from operating basis, the EBITDA declined by 25.5 per reader-investors to BUY the scrip. DS
CMP
Monthly Stock Market Returns Last Five Quarters (`/Cr) (Consolidated)
Shareholding Pattern
BSE Code:(`)
526371 CMP: `133.25 as of Sept., 2021 Particulars Sep-21 Jun-21 Mar-21 Dec-20 Sep-20
FV: `1 BSE Volume: 349,743
Total Income 6793.51 6512.21 6847.57 4355.10 2229.89
Date: 30/11/2021 Promoters 60.79
Other Income 88.93 144.09 85.18 105.87 88.78
Public 39.21 Operating Profit 3201.44 4320.33 4325.45 2872.64 1117.62
Interest 1.72 3.00 4.13 1.64 1.72
Others --
Net Profit 2338.63 3191.30 2835.54 2108.05 772.53
Total 100 Equity 293.07 293.07 293.07 306.19 306.19
S
tarted in 1993, Suryaamba Spinning Scrip’s Movement
Mills Ltd. is a leading manufacturer
of speciality synthetic spun yarns. The
core competitive strength of the company
is its innovative product range, specifically
tailor-made for its customers. On a
quarterly basis, net sales and operating
income were posted at `51.17 crore in
Q2FY22, a significant rise from `25.55 2021
T
Roadmap for the next 15 trading sessions
he global and domestic Ideas Nifty Levels Action to be Initiated Probable Targets
equity markets are breaking Trading above 17,280 on a weekly closing basis
down as fears of the new Resistance for the medium-term 17,280
would give momentum to the bulls
17,478-17,600
Omicron variant send shivers Close below 16,760 on the weekly chart would
down the spine across the Support for the medium-term 16,760
change the trend and trigger a retreat
16,694
globe. As the bears tightened their grip,
equity benchmarks across the globe correction was limited to 8.3 per cent. the RSI reached 32.2. The weekly RSI is
nosedived during last week. Barring the Any correction above 10 per cent is below the April swing low. This is a clear
pharmaceutical sector, all the sectoral categorised as a clear downtrend. A sign that strength is weakening in the
indices collapsed over 3-5 per cent last majority of corrections were limited to market. The index closed much below
week. Lack of leadership from the just 5 per cent. Forming a bearish the lower Bollinger band and there is a
defensive stocks and heavyweights pulled engulfing candle on a monthly chart possibility of bouncing back into the
down the market to its 13-week low. It confirmed the previous months’ shooting bands. Any recovery in market sentiment
registered one of the biggest weekly falls star candle’s bearish implications. To may lead to a technical bounce towards
in the last 18 months as the Nifty went avoid the bearish implications of this 17,478.
*LEGEND: n EMA - Exponential Moving Average. n MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence n RMI - Relative Momentum Index
n ROC - Rate of Change n RSI - Relative Strength Index (Closing price as of Nov 29, 2021)
Disclaimer : Above recommendations are based on various technical parameters and any fundamental input has not been considered for the recommendations. Follow strict stop loss for the recommendation.
POONAWALLA FINCORP
POTENTIAL TO OUTPACE NATIONAL GROWTH
The company is a diversified asset financier both in term of products as well as geographies, which helps
mitigate risks. It possesses a sound business model with a presence in high-yield, high-growth business
segments and superior sustainable returns
P
oonawalla Fincorp Limited (formerly known as orientation and prompt provision of services have typically
Magma Fincorp Limited) is a non-deposit taking, differentiated NBFCs from banks. Considering the reach and
non-banking finance company (NBFC), registered expanse of NBFCs, these are well-suited for bridging the financ-
with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Magma Fincorp ing gap. Systemically important NBFCs have demonstrated
Limited went into business in 1988. In more than three decades, agility, innovation and frugality to provide formal financial
the company emerged as a trusted NBFC, addressing the services to millions of Indians.
growing and widening needs of more than 5 million customers,
largely rural and semi-urban. The Poonawalla Group of Over the last decade, NBFCs have witnessed phenomenal
Companies acquired a majority stake in Magma Fincorp growth. From being around 12 per cent of the balance-sheet
Limited in the first quarter of FY 2021-22, following which it size of banks in 2010, these are now more than a quarter of the
emerged as the promoter group of the company. size of banks. The business model of the NBFC sector was
severely tested in FY21. The overall loans and advances
The new promoter owns 60 per cent of the company’s equity. contracted in H1FY21 due to weak demand on the back of
The company has a widespread coverage and presence across 21 nationwide lockdown. However, as the economic activities
states, 297 branches and the customer base stands at approxi- gradually resumed, loan disbursements gained momentum in
mately 5.4 million with a loan book of more than `14,000 crore. H2FY21. Collection efficiency also gradually improved to be
They offer a bouquet of financial products including SME near normal in Q4FY21. The fact that many NBFCs have
finance, mortgage finance, unsecured loans and general managed to overcome these severe stresses without significant
insurance. The company’s physical presence is complemented impact is a testimony to their resilience.
by a digital footprint that empowers field executives to conduct
business from channel and customer locations, enhancing sales The growth in FY22 is envisaged to be driven by the improve-
productivity, deepening market coverage and improving the ment in demand from all key target segments vis-à-vis the
customer experience. current fiscal, which was impacted by the pandemic-related
lockdown. Growth would be contingent upon access to
Sector Overview adequate funding lines i.e. incremental bank loans to non-
NBFCs have become important constituents of the financial banks, which would in turn depend on overall bank credit
sector and have been recording higher credit growth than growth. With superior capital adequacy, better margins, frugal
scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) over the past few years. cost management and lower non-performing assets (NPAs), the
NBFCs are continuously leveraging their superior understand- NBFC sector is well-poised to seize the opportunity provided in
ing of regional dynamics, well-developed collection system and the post-pandemic revival cycle. The revised regulatory
personalised services to expedite financial inclusion in India. framework proposed by the RBI intends to make the NBFC
Lower transaction costs, quick decision-making, customer sector more resilient.
W
hen it comes to equity investing, one of the Micro-Cap Portfolio Building
important questions every investor struggles to To start with, it is important to distinguish between penny
find an answer to is how much of the total stocks and micro-cap stocks. Penny stocks are the ones whose
portfolio money should be allocated to small- share price is less than `10 per share or even `20 for that matter
caps, mid-caps and large-caps. Often the fine judgement of and the market capitalisation is lower than the small-caps.
portfolio allocation across market capitalisation comes with Micro-cap stocks have low market capitalisation and usually
experience and after studying the risk profile of individual trade with low volumes on the bourses. Typically, micro-cap
investors. For a conservative investor it is recommended that 90 companies can be the ones below market capitalisation of
per cent of the portfolio money allocated for equity investments `1,000 crore. Then we also have something called nano-caps.
should be parked in large-caps and the remaining 10 per cent in Stocks with market capitalisation less than `100 crore or even
mid-caps and small-caps. If the investor’s risk profile suggests `200 crore are at times called nano-caps. Historically speaking,
higher risk-taking ability, in that case the allocation can be 50 we find that micro-cap companies are almost always risky for
per cent in small-caps and mid-caps with 50 per cent in investment.
large-caps.
This is not only due to inherent volatility but also on account of
For a moderate risk-taker, the recommended portfolio the probability of wiping out of the complete capital. Says
allocation is 70 per cent in large-caps and 30 per cent in Chetan Tupe, a micro-cap investor: “I think micro-cap
small-caps and mid-caps. If one sticks to the above suggested investing is grossly underrated by individual investors. There is
portfolio allocation derived after a thorough risk profiling is lot of money to be made in micro-cap stocks and the so called
done, chances are the experience in the equity market will be nano-cap stocks. If one applies the basics of investing principles
good as the portfolio will be aligned to the risk-taking ability of to micro-cap stocks, a market-beating portfolio can be
the individual investors. Now, how does one accommodate constructed. Yes, there is a risk of not only capital erosion but a
micro-cap stocks in a portfolio that shows promise? What are complete wiping out of the capital if a wrong micro-cap is
micro-cap stocks and should micro-cap stocks be included in selected, but overall if a portfolio is constructed of hand-picked
the portfolio at all? It is perceived that micro-cap stocks are micro-cap stocks after through research, beating market returns
highly risky and not for conservative investors. However, for is a cake-walk.”
those investors with higher risk-taking ability, micro-cap
investing is not untouchable. “As to whether it is a high-risk, high-reward game, definitely
We Have Been What is flexible packaging? What is your take on global
flexible packaging markets and business outlook of UFlex?
Of Expansion
food from degrading and extending its shelf life. Flexible
packaging delivers several other virtues and values such as
barrier properties, aesthetics, convenience of transportation,
storage and use, security and easy recyclability to all its
stakeholders that includes manufacturers, brands and
In this exclusive interaction, Rajesh Bhatia, consumers and finally for the environment as well. Common
Group CFO, UFlex, outlines the company’s examples of flexible packaging include bags, pouches, shrink
strategy in terms of sustainability while also films, tubes, blister packs, etc.
sharing information about how the company has
As per a report by Allied Market Research, the global flexible
been on an expansion spree in recent times both packaging market has been valued at USD 182.3 billion in 2020
in India and outside and owing to its CAGR of 6.2 per cent is projected to reach
USD 325.6 billion by the year 2030. This growth is witnessed on
account of higher per capita income, increased focus on hygiene
and packaged foods since the outbreak of the pandemic and
innovation-driven focus of packaging converters and brands.
Also, the ease of recycling flexible packaging has seen an
increased shift from rigid to flexible packaging.
P R E S E N T
Special Feature
on Plastic Industry
Special Feature
Plastic Takes A Profitable Turn
Even if activists around the world would rather put a complete ban on plastic products, several triggers
such as the pandemic-driven change in work and lifestyle, increasing urbanisation, growth in
infrastructure and demand from the agriculture industry, among other factors, have boosted production
in the plastic pipe and packaging sectors. In this report, Armaan Madhani highlights the salient growth
drivers while also pointing out the key challenges
M
arket growth and diversification – these are the demand in the chemical as well as the oil and natural gas
two factors that have contributed to the rapid sectors. Other industries such as automotive and mining are
strides taken by the Indian plastic industry in also likely to boost the demand for plastic pipes. The growth
recent years. Latest reports indicate that the drivers are as follows:
industry is likely to see increasing demand in the post-pandem-
ic era. In fact, among the very few industries to have done so, n Low Per Capita Consumption : Globally, the average per
the Indian plastic industry has shown resilience by staging capita consumption of plastic is around 30 kg while that of
healthy recovery from the pandemic-induced slowdown in the India is only about 11 kg, which is relatively very low. Tradi-
first two quarters of FY21. In this special feature, we delve tional materials dominate the applications of plastic. However,
deeper to understand the plastic piping and plastic packaging over the past 3-4 years, low crude oil prices and superior
sectors. properties of plastic have increased the usage of plastic in India.
Hence, it is expected that the per capita consumption will inch
Plastic Piping Sector closer to the global average. CRISIL Research expects demand
for polymers to grow at a healthy 7-9 per cent CAGR from
The global plastic piping market is valued at USD 55.96 billion 2019-2024.
and expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.8 per cent from 2021 to
2025 to reach USD 62.41 billion by 2025. In terms of volume, n Substitution and Replacement Demand : Superior real
the global PVC pipe market has reached 24.51 million tonnes in estate properties and low prices have led to the substitution of
2020 and is expected to reach a volume of 30.25 million tonnes metal pipes by plastic pipes. The increase in the availability of
by 2025. The Indian plastic pipe and fittings industry is raw materials such as PVC, PE and PPR followed by the
expected to reach `500-550 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR commissioning of new petrochemical facilities in India will
of 10 per cent from the current level of `290-300 billion. The further support the plastic pipe industry. Also replacement of
primary driver of growth in the piping and fitting industry is older pipes with plastic pipes will help in driving the demand.
the rapid pace of urbanisation and infrastructure development.
Increasing urbanisation calls for larger and cost-effective n Sectoral Consolidation : In recent times, several smaller
sewage lines, among other applications. This has also led to players in the PVC pipe sector have been impacted by volatility
in PVC prices, liquidity crisis and working capital constraints,
which has led them to close their operations. It has been
observed that the market share of top players has increased due
to the shutdown of operations by the smaller unorganised
players. This creates an opportunity for sectoral consolidation.
It is likely that going forward, market consolidation, steadiness With the arrival of the pandemic, people have become more
in higher PVC prices, opportunities in the infrastructure pipe conscious of the food products they consume. The food
segment that is expected to pick up with the government’s industry has increased its focus towards better and safer
strong emphasis on infrastructure in the budget and the packaging for its consumers, resulting in robust demand for
Contrarian
Investing Is
For All
Seasons!
The market is finally showing signs
of weakness after a one-way
movement from the time it hit the
lows in March 2020. This correction
in stock prices will create
opportunities for investors. However,
the question is about which strategy
will work best in the current market
situation. Will contrarian investing
approach suit in the current market
conditions? Yogesh Supekar
explains why contrarian investing
approach is for all seasons and how it
works
T
he benchmark index Sensex has fallen by
about 8 per cent from its all-time high In the recent fall we have seen that metal stocks too have
levels. This fall has been across merely 27 tumbled along with those of private banks. The BSE Metal
trading sessions. Thus, a sudden change in index is down by more than 10 per cent in the past one month.
trend has taken several bulls by surprise Interestingly, even real estate and energy stocks have been a
even though, to be fair, a correction was part of this correction. If we look at the performance on YTD
expected by market participants. It is the
depth of the correction and the speed that
has surprised a few. What is interesting to note is the
performance of the private banks. BSE Private Banks index is
The trend is your friend, at least
now the worst performing sectoral index and is down by more until the bend in the end.
than 13 per cent in the past one month. Banks have indeed
underperformed the markets even though PSU Banks has
shown relative strength when compared to private peers. Anonymous
When you observe the investments done by Warren Buffet, it Any investor willing to exploit a contrarian approach can
is not difficult to recognize that he is countercyclical. It is benefit by observing Warren Buffet’s investing pattern and
emotionally easy to invest when the economy is improving, behaviour.
while investing the contrarian way: 20 per cent since June 2021. Here, a contrarian investor
will avoid stocks that are popular or in favour by
1) It is observed that when a stock begins to hit the investors.
headlines, the positives are already factored in and there
is very little room left in the stock to outperform. In the 2) Buy when everyone wants to sell and sell when everyone
case of many stocks that create a buzz, by the time wants to buy. When adopting a contrarian style, it is
investors make up their mind to invest in them the stock important to have an independent view which is opposite
starts underperforming as it is over-owned. For example, to what the majority of investors think. When the market
the shares of Praj Industries climbed from `87 per share is at an all-time high and trending, it is common to see
in November 2020 to `398 per share in June 2021, thus investors actively participating since most are trend
generating 326 per cent returns in quick time. The stock followers. The uptrend and price momentum ensures
started attracting investors’ attention and was in the news that more and more investors get on board on the long
almost on a daily basis. However, after being highlighted side and that is where the contrarian investor must take a
by the media and analysts, it began to view that goes against the market view. Contrarian
heavily underperform the market. It is down by about investors can use advance decline indicators and track
INTERVIEW
Roop Bhootra, CEO - Investment Services, Anand Rathi Shares and Stockbrokers
What is contrarian investing according to you and does it work in a bullish market environment like the current one?
Contrarian investing is a style of investing in stocks, sectors or themes that are currently out of flavour in the market. This investing
style works well even in bull markets, but it totally depends on the stock-picking ability of the investor. Yes, contrarian stock
selection works in any kind of market scenario, including the current one. The key trigger points can be the turn of an economic
cycle or a company’s business cycle
What contrarian bets would you suggest in the current market condition?
PSU banks, other PSUs, real estate and capital goods were out of favour for many years now and can be interesting contrarian bets
with a timeframe of 2-3 years. So far, in the last 3-5 years we have seen a strong performance in the consumption theme but now
may be the time to look at the investment theme. But focus more on stock selection and bet on those companies where there is
strong visibility of earnings with good corporate governance.
What are the most important things to keep in mind while taking a contrarian bet?
Contrarian investing requires deep understanding of the business cycles, future moats for business and management quality and a
track record of who is at the helm of the business. In a way contrarian bets are also known as turnaround stories. The contrarian
bets in your portfolio may underperform the market in the short term but over a long term can be a big positive surprise on the
upside. One should do a review of contrarian bets at least on a quarterly basis.
We are focusing on increasing
our market presence globally
We are focusing on improving our product mix to better value-
added products over the next few years, says Parag Jhaveri,
Managing Director and CEO, Yasho Industries Limited.
Our expertise lies in the express logistics
space, backed by a hub and spoke model
In this interview, Aneel Gambhir, CFO, Blue Dart, outlines the operational strategy of the company in the
logistics sector that is increasingly tilting towards providing sustainable solutions and cost-efficient delivery
Anuj Puri
Chairman, ANAROCK Property Consultants
Technology Disrupting
The Construction Sector
By adopting innovative technologies like automation in construction, innovative
designs, sustainability, use of prefabricated material and online marketing, developers
can value-engineer their product, opines Anuj Puri, Chairman, ANAROCK Group
T
echnology has disrupted almost every facet of the real Given the rapid rate at which technology is reimaging everything
estate business today. However, the creation of the in modern life, it would perhaps be rash to tag 3D printing in
core product is and will remain the most important construction as ‘hopelessly futuristic’. It will happen sooner than
aspect of this business, and advanced technologies are we may expect. While 3D printing in the construction sector is
certainly playing a major role there. By adopting innovative yet to kick-start in India, robotic construction company Apis
technologies like automation in construction, innovative Cor built the world’s largest 3D-printed two-storey office
designs, sustainability, use of prefabricated material and online building in Dubai. As proclaimed by the company, it took 17
marketing, developers can value-engineer their product. More days to print the basic form of this 2,690 sq. feet office building,
so, with labour shortage looming large across cities due to the which was made of a layered cement mixture. Interestingly, the
pandemic, developers may look for alternate construction labour cost was claimed to be nearly 50 per cent less than a
methods that focus on saving time or subverting costs. If not conventional building of similar size.
entirely, at least some stages of the entire construction cycle
may become labour-free. Let’s look at some of the existing and Likewise, in Mexico, a gigantic 3D printer was used to print a
upcoming technology disruptions in real estate construction. new neighbourhood with each house taking just 24 hours to
complete. The potential of this highly disruptive construction
3D Printing technology is therefore beyond dispute. Of course, there are
Among the many new technologies already adopted by the considerable costs involved in this technology. 3D printing
construction sector, 3D printing which is the large-scale machines usable in the construction sector can cost as much as
printing of homes is anticipated to change the way real estate is USD 2 million. Also, their current capacities are limited to
built over the next decade. Though still very nascent, 3D structures of less than 33 feet (10 metres) in height, with a
printing can potentially replace a substantial amount of throughput of less than 550 pounds (250 kilograms) per hour.
construction across major segments, including residential, In other words, 3D printing technology in the construction
commercial or even retail. This will be a massive paradigm shift sector can change the way real estate functions but currently it
in real estate development. Apart from seriously reducing is largely limited to printing small buildings. For large-size
waste, cost and labour requirements, 3D printing will help buildings, including multi-storey offices or large malls,
builders penetrate the hitherto inaccessible areas of dense machines of considerably higher capacities would be needed.
urban centres, where it is impossible to set up heavy machinery
for construction. 3D printing technology will eventually also Building Information Modelling (BIM)
involve the printing of internal structures such as walls, An existing construction technology which is fast gaining
plumbing, electrical systems, venting, and so on. ground is Building Information Modelling (BIM) software that
Virus Strikes
Again!
The threat furnished by the new virus variant is a
further addition to existing investor woes such as
slowing growth, spiralling inflation and possible
tightening of monetary policy in the near future
T
he new corona virus variant, Omicron, first detected GLOBAL INDICES
from South Africa last week, was recently designated as a Indices 12-Nov-21 26-Nov-21 Gain / Loss (%)
‘variant of concern’ by the World Health Organization Dow Jones Ind 36,100.31 34,899.34 -3.33%
(WHO). A ‘variant of concern’ is the WHO’s top S&P 500 4,682.85 4,594.62 -1.88%
category of worrying virus variants. Omicron is the fifth variant to Nasdaq 15,860.96 15,491.66 -2.33%
carry such a designation. The WHO has said that Omicron has a FTSE 100 7,347.91 7,044.03 -4.14%
large number of mutations, some of which are worrisome and DAX 16,094.07 15,257.04 -5.20%
preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of re-infection CAC 40 7,091.40 6,739.73 -4.96%
with this variant, in comparison to other variants. There are Hang Seng 25,327.97 24,080.52 -4.93%
growing concerns globally that the pandemic and associated Nikkei 29,609.97 28,751.62 -2.90%
lockdown restrictions will persist for far longer than hoped. Shanghai 3,539.10 3,564.09 0.71%
Straits Times Index 3,228.45 3,166.27 -1.93%
News of the Omicron variant triggered an alarm of heavy BOVESPA 106,334.54 102,224.26 -3.87%
selling pressure which resulted in global equity indices falling S&P/TSX Composite 21,768.53 21,125.90 -2.95%
sharply. The US frontline benchmark indices Dow Jones, S & P OMX Copenhagen 20 1,897.09 1,806.59 -4.77%
500 and Nasdaq ended the fortnight in the red territory, down SET Index (SETI) 1,633.94 1,610.61 -1.43%
by 3.33 per cent, 1.88 per cent and 2.33 per cent, respectively. SZSE Component Index 14,705.37 14,777.17 0.49%
London Stock Exchange’s FTSE 100 index tumbled by 4.14 per Kospi 2,968.80 2,936.44 -1.09%
cent and on the last trading day of the two-week period suffered
S&P/ASX 200 7,443.00 7,279.30 -2.20%
its biggest one-day sell-off in percentage terms since June 2020.
European benchmark Brent Crude also plummeted by more month was double the 0.6 per cent gain in the month of
than 10 per cent on Friday, November 26, 2021, hitting a September. Concurrently, consumer prices rose 5 per cent
two-month low as the new variant added to concerns that a compared with the same period last year, the fastest 12-month
supply surplus could swell in the first quarter. gain since the same stretch ending in November 1990. Personal
incomes ascended by 0.5 per cent in October after having slipped
The US central bank policymakers had unanimously decided at by 1 per cent in the previous month, exhibiting a distinct
their meeting held last month to begin reducing the USD 120 reflection of a drop in government support payments.
billion in monthly purchases of treasuries and mortgage-
backed securities, which was initiated in early 2020 to help During the fortnight, the German DAX index and the French
nurse the economy through the pandemic. The minutes of the CAC 40 index corrected sharply by 5.20 per cent and 4.96 per
Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting exhibited that the cent, respectively. Hong Kong’s benchmark index Hang Seng
policymakers would be open to speeding up the elimination of tanked by 4.93 per cent to close at 24,080.52. Technology giants
their bond-buying programme if high inflation held and moved JD and Netease along with China Resources Beer and ENN
more quickly to raise interest rates. Energy Holdings will be added to the Hang Seng index effective
December 6, 2021. The latest update increases the number of
Consumer spending in the United States staged a decent stocks under the main index to 64 from the current 60 stocks.
recovery in October 2021, rising by 1.3 per cent along with The threat furnished by the new virus variant is a further
inflation, rising over the past year at the fastest pace in more than addition to existing investor woes such as slowing growth,
three decades. The country’s commerce department reported on spiralling inflation and possible tightening of monetary policy
November 24, 2021 that the jump in consumer spending last in the near future. DS
Negative
Developments Spook
Global Markets
Increasing supply concerns due to release of oil
reserves following a request by the US amid fresh
virus outbreaks in Europe and increase in inflation
levels might keep oil under pressure
B
eing qualified as a ‘variant of concern’ by the World Commodities 12-Nov-21 26-Nov-21 Gain/Loss (%)
Health Organization’s technical advisory group, the
MCX Cotton 32360.00 31640.00 -2.22
new strain of corona virus has resulted in fresh travel
restrictions around the globe. In the commodity MCX Copper 744.95 727.65 -2.32
markets, investors are worried about hits to demand as MCX Lead 190.10 184.90 -2.74
recoveries potentially face speed bumps. The commodities MCX Gold 49314.00 47960.00 -2.75
were seen trading in negative territory during the recent MCX Zinc 277.20 268.85 -3.01
fortnight and the biggest hit was observed to be for oil prices.
MCX Aluminium 216.40 208.65 -3.58
WTI crude oil rattled by 15.57 per cent whereas Brent crude oil
declined heavily by 11.31 per cent. Oil slipped along with global MCX Silver 67144.00 62965.00 -6.22
equities markets on account of the fear that the variant Brent Oil 81.99 72.72 -11.31
Omicron could dampen economic growth and fuel demand. Crude Oil 80.72 68.15 -15.57
Britain and European countries have restricted travel from to release of oil reserves following a request by the US amid
South Africa where the variant was detected to find out if the fresh virus outbreaks in Europe and increase in inflation levels
mutation is vaccine-resistant. Increasing supply concerns due might keep oil under pressure. On MCX, cotton and copper
futures were squeezed by 2.22 per cent and 2.32 per cent,
respectively. During the fortnight, most of the industrial metals
were seen under pressure as a stronger USD reflecting bets over
a sooner-than-expected rate hike undermined the outlook for
the entire pack. Copper futures faced slowdown amid the
Gold traded lower as the dollar and the US’ decline in global prices.
treasury yield strengthened on expectations of
However, the losses were somewhat curbed for MCX Copper
rate hike by the US central bank. Gold also futures due to weakness in Indian rupee. On the other hand,
MCX Zinc descended by 3.01 per cent whereas MCX
witnessed a fall after US President Joe Biden Aluminium recorded a decrease of 3.58 per cent. Among
nominated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome bullion, MCX Gold dipped 2.75 per cent during the fortnight
whereas MCX Silver contracted 6.22 per cent. Gold traded
Powell for a second four-year term which lower as the dollar and the US’ treasury yield strengthened on
expectations of rate hike by the US central bank. Gold also
increased bets towards an early rate hike witnessed a fall after US President Joe Biden nominated Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a second four-year term which
increased bets towards an early rate hike. DS
EXIT HOLD
BSE/NSE Code 533156 / VASCONEQ BSE Code 532947 / IRB
Face Value `10 Face Value `10
CMP `21.80 CMP `205.80
52-Week High `31.75 / Low `13.30 52-Week High `346.95 / Low `97.75
Your Current (27.33 per cent) Your Current 26.07 per cent
Profit/(Loss) Profit/(Loss)
V I
ascon Engineers has more than 30 years of experience in RB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. (IRB) is India’s largest
conceiving, developing, constructing and managing integrated private toll roads and highways infrastructure
varied projects. It has a presence across multiple sectors. developer in India with an asset base of over `54,000 crore
The latest consolidated quarterly financials of the company show in 10 states across the parent company and two infrastructure
that net sales and other operating income for Q2FY22 stood at investment trusts. The company’s quarterly consolidated
`152.87 crore, growing by 27.92 per cent from `119.50 crore in financials recorded net sales and other operating income for
Q2FY21. Operating profit for Q2FY22 came in at `6.77 crore Q2FY22 of `1,465.24 crore, up by 30.44 per cent from
versus an operating loss of `0.13 crore in Q2FY21. The company `1,123.33 crore in Q2FY21. Operating profit also climbed by
reported net loss of `3.13 crore in Q2FY22 relative to net loss of 26.02 per cent from `600.54 crore in Q2FY21 to `756.85 crore
`10.23 crore in Q2FY21. in Q2FY22. Net profit for Q2FY22 stood at `77.93 crore,
soaring by 3.5 times relative to `22 crore in Q2FY21. In terms of
In terms of annual performance on a consolidated basis, the annual performance, the net sales and other operating income
company recorded net sales and other operating income of were reported to be `5,298.63 crore for FY21, which descended
`506.88 crore in FY21, exhibiting marginal growth of 4.52 per by 22.67 per cent in comparison to `6,852.22 crore in FY20.
cent from `484.98 crore in FY20. Operating profit plunged by Operating profit contracted by `14.68 per cent from `3,166.36
99.68 per cent from `37.93 crore in FY20 to `0.12 crore in FY21. crore in FY20 to `2,701.56 crore in FY21. Consequentially, net
The company recorded net loss of `39.17 crore in FY21 in profit descended by 61.59 per cent from `736.71 crore in FY20
comparison to net profit of `3.80 crore in FY20. The company to `282.94 crore in FY21. With the onset of the festival season in
has delivered a poor sales growth of -2.96 per cent over the past India and more relaxations announced by the government,
five years along with a low return on equity of 0.19 per cent for traffic movement is expected to significantly improve, further
the last three years. Hence, we recommend EXIT. resulting in much stronger earnings in the coming quarters.
Hence, we recommend HOLD.
Readers are requested to send only one query at a time so that more readers get a chance. For complaints regarding non-receipt of
dividend, bonus, rights and other matters, investors may write to www.investor.sebi.gov.in
BUY HOLD
BSE/NSE Code 542752 / AFFLE BSE/NSE Code 532689 / PVR
Face Value `2 Face Value `10
CMP `1,149.25 CMP `1,272.95
52-Week High `1,259.25 / Low `705.09 52-Week High `1,838.00 / Low `961
Your Current -- Your Current (15.76 per cent)
Profit/(Loss) Profit/(Loss)
A P
ffle is a global technology company with a proprietary VR is the largest and the most premium film exhibition
consumer intelligence platform that delivers consumer company in India. Since its inception in 1997, the brand
engagements, acquisitions and transactions through has redefined the way entertainment is perceived in the
relevant mobile advertising. While Affle’s consumer platform is country. PVR currently operates a cinema circuit comprising
used by online and offline companies for measurable mobile 856 screens at 179 properties in 72 cities across India and Sri
advertising, its enterprise platform helps offline companies to Lanka, serving over 100 million patrons annually. PVR offers an
go online through platform-based app development, array of formats in the premium screen category, which stands
enablement of O2O commerce and through its customer data at eight screens of Director’s Cut, 39 screens of LUXE, four
platform. screens of Sapphire, nine screens of IMAX, 18 screens of 4DX,
nine screens of P(XL), 13 screens of Playhouse and one screen
The company’s quarterly consolidated financials recorded of PVR Onyx across the country.
Q2FY22 net sales and other operating income of `274.70 crore,
growing two-fold relative to `134.95 crore in Q2FY21. On The latest consolidated quarterly financials of the company
similar lines, operating profit also soared by 86.6 per cent show that the company recorded three-fold growth in net sales
from `36.04 crore in Q2FY21 to `67.24 crore in Q2FY22. Net and other operating income from `4.45 crore in Q2FY21 to
profit for Q2FY22 stood at `47.82 crore, jumping by 77.26 per `120.32 crore in Q2FY22. Operating profit for Q2FY22 stood at
cent from `26.98 crore in Q2FY21. Their CPCU business `86.76 crore, relative to an operating loss of `14 crore in
continued the growth momentum, delivering 4.9 crore of Q2FY20. The company reported net loss of `153.27 crore in
converted users in Q2FY22, an increase of 73.3 per cent on a Q2FY22 as compared to net loss of `183.62 crore in Q2FY21.
YoY basis. In terms of annual performance on a consolidated During the quarter, PVR continued with its strategy for keeping
basis, net sales and operating income for FY21 came in at operating costs low and maintaining adequate liquidity. In
`516.78 crore, growing by just a little over 50 per cent from terms of annual consolidated financials, the company recorded
`333.78 crore in FY20. net sales and other operating income of `280.01 crore in FY21,
down by 91.8 per cent from `3,414.44 crore in FY20 due to
Operating profit soared by 82.16 per cent from `93.98 crore in countrywide pandemic-related restrictions on theatres, malls
FY20 to `171.19 crore in FY21. Net profit for FY21 stood at and multiplexes.
`135.04 crore, surging two-fold from `65.52 crore in FY20.
With advertisers consistently accelerating their digital spends, The operating profit shrunk by 87.94 per cent from `1,114.38
resulting in broad-based and persistent growth across the top crore in FY20 to `134.14 crore in FY21. The company reported
industry verticals coming from domestic as well as net loss of `747.20 crore in FY21 versus net profit of `27.84 crore
international markets, the company continues to witness strong in FY20. PVR was able to successfully conclude discussions with
optimistic market opportunity. Affle (India) furnishes a landlord partners for rental waivers or discounts in respect of 80
differentiated business model, fundamentally inspired to deliver per cent of its properties and achieved savings of 75 per cent. The
innovation-led profitable growth backed by sustained total available liquidity on the balance-sheet is over `700 crore as
investments in augmenting their strategic defensibility globally of September 30, 2021. A healthy recovery is forecasted from
along with a prudent balance-sheet and robust cash flows. Diwali onwards and business is expected to bounce back strongly.
Hence, we recommend BUY. Hence, we recommend HOLD.
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORP. LTD. GOODYEAR INDIA LTD
I have bought 100 shares of IRCTC at `758.72.
Please advise whether I should sell, hold or book
profit? What is your view on Goodyear India’s shares?
- Samanvay S - Jaya Ramachandran
HOLD BUY
BSE/NSE Code 542830 / IRCTC BSE/NSE Code 500168 / GOODYEAR
Face Value `2 Face Value `10
CMP `794.35 CMP `966.55
52-Week High `1,278.60 / Low `267.19 52-Week High `1,330.30 / Low `823.60
Your Current 4.74 per cent Your Current --
Profit/(Loss) Profit/(Loss)
I G
RCTC as a public sector undertaking provides a single- oodyear India is one of the world’s largest tyre
window solution to all travel, tourism, internet ticketing and companies. It employs about 72,000 people and
hospitality-related services. It has completely redefined manufactures its products in 54 facilities across 23
travel and tourism in India. With a host of services ranging countries around the world. In the farm segment, the company
from online ticket bookings to hotel and flight bookings, the is a market leader in the original equipment segment and
online portal meets varied travel needs with just a few clicks. supplies to all major tractor companies in India. The company
The company operates through four major divisions – catering also trades in passenger car tyres and has been offering
and hospitality, internet ticketing, travel and tourism, and technologically advanced products that offer better driving
packaged drinking water under the brand name ‘Rail Neer’ – experience to its consumers.
offering a comprehensive range of products and services that
meet the needs and expectations of millions. The company’s quarterly standalone financials reveal that net
sales and other operating income for Q1FY22 was at `534.15
As regards the standalone quarterly performance of the crore, recording a rise of 135.38 per cent as compared to net
company, net sales and other operating income for Q2FY22 sales and operating income of `226.93 crore for Q1FY21. The
stood at `404.94 crore, recording a hefty rise as compared to net company recorded an operating profit for Q1FY22 at `50.33
sales and operating income of `88.56 crore for Q2FY21. The crore which zoomed upward significantly as compared to an
company posted an operating profit for Q2FY22 at `227.63 operating profit of `7.9 crore registered for Q1FY21. Net profit
crore which grew significantly as compared to an operating for Q1FY22 was `26.89 crore as against net loss of `4.49 crore in
profit of `14.58 crore registered for Q1FY21. The company Q1FY21. In terms of annual performance, the net sales and
achieved net profit of `158.57 crore in Q1FY22 as compared to other operating income were reported to be `1,791.71 crore for
net profit of `32.64 crore achieved in Q1FY21, clocking FY21, which improved by 2.64 per cent when compared to
attractive gains. In terms of annual performance, the net sales `1,745.57 crore for FY20. FY21 reported an increase of 40.04
and other operating income were reported to be `783.05 crore per cent in operating profit at `239.34 crore as compared to
for FY21, which squeezed by 65.42 per cent when compared to `170.91 crore for FY20.
`2,264.31 crore for FY20.
The net profit stood at `136.26 crore in FY21 in comparison
FY21 reported a decline of 64.55 per cent in operating profit at with net profit of `88.84 crore reported in FY20. The company is
`275.92 crore as compared to `778.44 crore for FY20. The net expecting the farm economy to further grow in financial year
profit stood at `189.90 crore in FY21 in comparison with net 2021-22 based on favourable monsoon outlook and high focus
profit of `513.11 crore reported in FY20, 62.99 per cent lower. from the government. The company will continue to
The company bears a resilient business portfolio that can be concentrate on sustaining leadership delivered by a best-in-class
scaled and based on core competencies. The expansion plans of team. After the opening of the lockdown, the company has seen
the firm indicate signs of potential upside in the stock in the gradual recovery in the passenger tyre industry and this is
long run. Besides, the company has been expanding its business expected to continue to improve. Good Year India is optimistic
to bus, air tickets as well as tour and travel planners. This is about the long-term industry outlook and would focus on
likely to build up new potential opportunity for the firm to various strategic initiatives to strengthen its position in the
strengthen its position. Hence, we recommend HOLD. market. Hence, we recommend BUY.
(Closing price as of Nov 30, 2021)
Change
PI Industries Ltd. HOLD 7.63 Per Cent
CMP - `2,876.70
W
e had recommended PI Operating profit climbed marginally by
Industries Ltd. in Volume 36, 1.91 per cent from `313.70 crore in
Issue No. 12 dated May 10-23, Q2FY21 to `319.70 crore in Q2FY22. Net
2021, under the ‘Choice Scrip’ segment. profit for Q2FY22 came in at `230.10
The recommended price for the stock crore, up by 5.7 per cent from `217.70
was `2,672.80. We had recommended crore recorded in Q2FY21. In terms of
the stock on the basis of the company’s annual consolidated financial perfor-
future growth potential, good return on mance, the company posted net sales and
capital employed and focus on cost operating income for FY21 at `4,577 recent QIP proceeds. The sector outlook
reduction. PI Industries is a leading crore, up by 35.96 per cent from continues to remain positive owing to
player in the agro-chemicals space. The `3,336.50 crore in FY20. Operating profit late rains and adequate water level at
company currently operates a strong ascended by 48.31 per cent from reservoirs. The company’s net sales to
infrastructure set-up consisting 3 `766.70 crore in FY20 to `1,137.10 crore fixed assets ratio has improved to 2.04
formulation facilities as well as 15 in FY21. Consequentially, net profit (September 2021) relative to 1.89 (March
multi-product plants at its four climbed 61.01 per cent from `455.80 2021). Over H1FY22, the company’s
manufacturing locations. The quarterly crore in FY20 to `733.90 crore in FY21. production throughput improved
consolidated financial performance of through process efficiencies, accommo-
the company reveals that net sales and Over Q2YF22, PI Industries has dating the growth of other products. It
operating income for Q2FY22 stood at increased inventory levels to avert supply has also initiated manufacturing of
`1,354.20 crore, exhibiting growth of chain disruptions and meet customer electronic chemicals with global
16.97 per cent in comparison to supply schedules or continued opera- customers. The order book continues to
`1,157.70 crore in Q2FY21. tions. The company has a surplus cash remain robust at USD 1.4 billion. Hence,
net of debt of `2,062 crore including we recommend HOLD.
Change
HDFC LTD. HOLD 4 Per Cent
CMP - `2,676.40
W
e had recommended HDFC relative to `3,493.83 crore in Q2FY22.
Ltd. in Volume 36, Issue No. The dividend income for Q2FY22 came
11, dated April 26, 2021 to in at `1,171 crore, up by more than 3.63
May 9, 2021, under the ‘Cover Story’ times over the same period in the
segment. The recommended price for the previous year. The board has also granted performing assets (GNPAs) improved by
stock was `2,573.55. We had its approval for the issuance of secured 24 basis points to 2 per cent at the end of
recommended the stock on the basis of redeemable non-convertible debentures Q2FY22, from 2.24 per cent in Q1FY22.
the company’s strong balance-sheet, aggregating to `75,000 crore, in various Individual gross NPA declined to 1.1 per
collection efficiency and margin tranches, on a private placement basis. cent from 1.37 per cent and non-
expansion. Incorporated in 1977, HDFC On the annual consolidated financial individual gross NPA fell to 4.69 per cent
is a pioneer in housing finance in India, performance front, FY21 total income from 4.87 per cent sequentially. Collection
engaged in financing the purchase and came in at `1,39,071.24 crore, exhibiting efficiency for individual loans on a
construction of residential houses and a surge of 36.62 per cent relative to cumulative basis improved to 98 per cent
real estate. In terms of quarterly `1,01,795.90 crore in FY20. On similar during the quarter ended September 30,
consolidated financial performance, the lines, net profit descended by 20.58 per 2021. Growth in home loans was seen in
company reported 8.67 per cent growth cent from `17,080.37 crore in FY20 to both the affordable housing segment as
in total income from `64,049.79 crore in `13,566.08 crore in FY21. well as in high-end properties during
Q2FY21 to `69,600.64 crore in Q2FY22. Q2FY22. The demand for home loans
The company’s asset quality improved continues to remain strong. Hence, we
Its net profit climbed marginally by 2.97 sequentially, particularly in respect of recommend HOLD. DS
per cent from `3,392.98 crore in Q2FY21 individual loans. Its gross non- (Closing price as of Nov 30, 2021)
PRODUCTS IN DEMAND
Hindustan Unilever is a
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD. consumer goods company and
BSE Code: 500696 its products include foods,
CMP: `2,318.45 beverages, cleaning agents,
personal care products, water
purifiers and other fast-moving consumer goods.
Considering the high volatility expected in the markets till
there is more clarity about the new variant of the corona
virus and whether the vaccines are effective against it,
defensive stocks are likely to witness buying interest. The
murmur on D-Street is that FMCG stocks could witness good
buying in the coming days. Given the scenario, it would be a
good option to buy stocks of this company at the current
juncture. DS
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Insurance is Must
Lower Your Return I have found your magazine to be very insightful. After going
through the article titled ‘Insurance is a Must’, I realised that I
I
member adds up in a family who is dependent on me?
n the world of investing, it becomes very difficult to - Jaimin Shah
avoid the recency bias. Investors, while making their
Editor Responds : It’s good to know that you immediately
financial plan, extrapolate the recent returns. The reviewed your insurance requirement after reading the article. It
recency bias is more prominent among millennials or is very crucial to review your life insurance plan and implement
those who have started investing recently. They do not it if there are any changes in life. One needs to revise the life plan
have the experience of going through different cycles of in case there are any life changes such as marriage, childbirth,
returns. They believe that the current returns will continue death of any member, changes in standard of living, demise of
in the future too. Nevertheless, returns from investment the spouse, loss of income, etc. In your case, one dependent has
always revert to mean. Currently, about 400 equity- been added and so, you need to revise your life insurance plan
dedicated mutual funds are giving average SIP return of and need to consider the same member in your plan in order to
27.2 per cent for the last three years. protect all your dependents from any financial crisis.
Compare this with the average SIP return of 16 per cent
for five years and 10.64 per cent for 10 years. This shows
that in the long term you cannot expect the recent returns
to continue. Recency bias can lead investors to deviate
Content
from their carefully laid investment plans, which can have
damaging long-term consequences to their finances and
financial goals. For example, in 2019 there were many
Cover Story MF Page
02
funds such as Quant Small-Cap Fund and PGIM India Passive Or Active Funds:
Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund that were giving negative What’s The Right Choice?
SIP returns for a period of five years. The same funds are
now giving SIP returns in excess of 30 per cent for a period
of five years. Financial Planning MF Page
07
So, if you would have selected these funds for any reason at
that time and assumed them to generate similar returns,
you would have made more investment in these funds Special Report MF Page
10
than required. The takeaway is that short-term market Is It The Right Time To
moves caused by recency bias can determine long-term
results, making it more difficult for investors to reach their Invest In Credit Risk Funds?
financial goals. Hence, take a broader view of how the
markets tend to move over time and the larger trends
instead of short-term movements. Hence, the current fall
Special Report MF Page
14
in the equity market should help us to correct our recency Buying A Car? Opt For
bias and adjust our return expectation for future returns,
which should be lower than what we have seen in the last Subscription Instead!
18 months.
Special Report MF Page
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SHASHIKANT A Guide To Claiming Life Insurance
DSIJ.in DEC 06 - 19, 2021 I DALAL STREET INVESTMENT JOURNAL 47
Cover story
MF page - 02
Passive Active
Funds Funds
Passive Or Active Funds:
What’s The Right Choice?
In the last few years we have been witnessing exponential rise in assets under management of
passively managed funds. These have outstripped growth in actively managed funds. Even in
terms of inflows, passively managed funds have seen better inflows than actively managed
counterparts. The report compares the two to know which is better
T
here is a massive shift that is happening globally in cheap index mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs),
the investment world. Since 2008, investors are now which together come under the term passive index funds. ETFs
moving towards passive investment strategies. and index mutual funds are technically different, but they share
Worldwide, after the great financial crisis many the fundamental feature that both seek to replicate existing
investors both at the retail level as well as at the stock indices while minimising expense ratios.
institutional level have started shifting their investments from
relatively expensive actively managed mutual funds to relatively In contrast, active funds employ fund managers who strive to
buy stocks that will outperform, which leads to higher expense AUM (` Cr.)
ratios. Between 2009 and 2020, passively managed funds have Months Passive Funds Active Funds
witnessed their asset under management (AUM) increasing Mar-20 1,54,551.69 5,78,507.69
from USD 6 trillion to USD 22 trillion, showing an annual Apr-20 1,74,003.12 6,60,070.27
growth of 13 per cent compared to 10 per cent overall growth May-20 1,70,609.82 2,90,256.60
witnessed by the mutual fund industry. Passive products Jun-20 1,86,508.87 7,01,016.04
recorded their highest growth in the pandemic-affected year. Jul-20 2,10,551.41 7,37,608.12
Passive AUM rose by 17 per cent globally during 2020 with Aug-20 2,19,002.12 7,69,115.16
strong net inflows and market growth. India has not remained Sep-20 2,17,816.34 7,64,309.50
immune to this tectonic shift. Oct-20 2,23,348.47 7,77,292.19
Nov-20 2,47,969.86 8,57,510.40
In the last few years we have been witnessing exponential rise in Dec-20 2,71,496.33 9,06,766.98
AUM of passively managed funds. These have outstripped Jan-21 2,72,130.76 8,91,399.41
growth in actively managed funds. Even in terms of inflows, Feb-21 2,90,752.78 9,63,358.24
passively managed funds have seen better inflows than actively Mar-21 2,95,094.99 9,79,367.20
managed counterparts. Since the start of March 2020, passively Apr-21 2,97,996.86 9,91,362.64
managed funds, including ETFs and index funds, have seen a May-21 3,22,569.44 10,67,899.26
cumulative inflow of Rs 1.04 lakh crore. Comparatively, actively Jun-21 3,31,265.73 11,10,025.49
managed funds in the same period were able to garner little less Jul-21 3,40,392.75 4,11,901.60
than half of that at Rs 0.5 lakh crore. Aug-21 3,74,342.87 12,33,142.23
Sep-21 3,96,761.17 12,79,647.20
If we look at the monthly inflows we find that out of the last 20 Oct-21 4,07,864.04 12,96,559.44
months ending October 2021, in eight months between July
2020 and February 2021 actively managed equity funds saw a Growing Clout of Passively Managed Funds
continuous net outflow. Whereas in the case of passively The rise of passively managed assets in developed markets such
managed funds we saw that only in the month of October 2021 as the US was mainly due to the underperformance of active
was there some net outflow. The AUM of the passively managed funds compared to their respective benchmarks, the lower cost
funds in the last 20 months has increased by 263 per cent of passive funds measured through expense ratio as compared
compared to 224 per cent of actively managed equity funds. to active funds, and the change in regulations and policies that
They are now 31.5 per cent of the total equity-based mutual favoured passive investments. The same reasons stand true for
fund AUM compared to 26.5 per cent at the start of the Indian investors who are driven to embrace passively managed
pandemic. funds such as index funds and plain vanilla ETFs.
According to S&P Indices versus Active Funds (SPIVA) them to perform better in the long run. It is a well-established
scorecard for India for the period ending June 30, 2021, over 80 fact that expense ratio remains one of the few factors that have a
per cent of the funds in the equity large-cap category have definite impact on the future performance of the funds.
underperformed the benchmark over one, three and five-year
periods. For a ten-year period, almost 66 per cent of the
Category Expense Ratio (%)*
Index Regular 0.68
large-cap funds have underperformed their benchmark. The
SPIVA India scorecard compares the performance of actively Index Direct 0.48
managed Indian mutual funds with their respective benchmark Actively Managed Funds Regular 2.09
indices over one, three, five and ten-year investment horizons. Actively Managed Funds Direct 0.97
*expense ratio of Large Cap and Index funds at the end of October 2021.
The following table depicts that how many funds within the
category underperformed the benchmark in 1-year, 3-year, The table above shows that the difference in expense ratio
5-year and 10-year: between a regular index fund and actively managed fund is
1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year more than 1.4 per cent. This difference may seem insignificant,
Fund Category Comparison Index but over a long period these costs add up. The cost of funds is
(%) (%) (%) (%)
Indian Equity Large-Cap S&P BSE 100 86.21 86.67 82.72 65.93 considered a significant factor in value creation over the long
Indian ELSS S&P BSE 200 53.66 76.19 76.19 48.57 term. For example, if you invest Rs 5,00,000 in a fund that has
Indian Equity Mid-/ S&P BSE 400 an expense ratio of 2.1 per cent per annum, then it means that
Small-Cap MidSmallCap Index
57.14 48.65 69.57 40.3 you need to pay Rs 10,500 per year to the fund to manage your
Indian Government S&P BSE India money. Also, if the fund returns equal 20 per cent and has an
Bond Government Bond Index
70.83 51.85 71.43 86 expense ratio of 2.1 per cent, you would get a return equal to
S&P BSE India Bond 15.9 per cent. The net asset value (NAV) of a fund is reported
Indian Composite Bond
Index
50 97.9 97.87 100 after deducting all fees and expenses.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Morningstar, and Association of Mutual Funds in India.
Data as of June 30, 2021. Returns are shown in per cent The next big factor that is favouring the rise of index funds or
ETFs is government policies and the beneficial regulatory
The table shows the comparison of the performance of different environment that promotes passively managed funds. First, in
fund categories with respect to their benchmarks. It clearly 2017, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) came out
shows that in the last one year most of the equity-based funds with the re-categorisation and rationalisation of mutual fund
have underperformed their benchmarks. The worst underper- schemes, according to which fund houses are required to
formance comes from large-cap funds in the last three-year manage only one product offering in each style category and
period. On the surface, it looks that actively managed funds are also the investment universe. Earlier, a large-cap dedicated fund
not able to outperform their benchmarks in different time would have invested only 50 per cent of its net assets into
periods – which we will explain why this can be misleading – large-cap stocks and rest into mid-cap and small-cap stocks still
and hence investors are moving towards passively managed benchmarked to a large-cap index. This would make large-cap
funds. funds’ performance better than their benchmarks in the long
run assuming that the broader market stock performs better
The second reason why passively managed funds are being than the large-cap stocks.
widely accepted is due to their low cost structure. Passively
managed funds by their construct have lower expense ratio. To Now with rationalisation and categorisation such inconsisten-
manage a passively managed fund, asset management does not cies have been weeded out and apples are being compared to
need a high paying research analyst or need a frequent apples. This has enhanced transparency since investors can
churning to generate alpha – all of this goes into savings for easily compare the performance of fund offerings in each style
passively managed funds and ultimately towards the returns of category. At the same time, it has made it difficult for large-cap
the fund. So every rupee saved will add to the returns of the funds to show outperformance. SEBI also mandated that fund
fund. In case of actively managed funds, a fund manager is managers should benchmark the performance of equity funds
supported by analysts and a research team to carry out research against total return indices (TRI) and not the price return index
and track the performance of the companies in which invest- (PRI). This was done in order to emphasise the importance of
ment is being made. dividend payments in addition to capital appreciation when
evaluating portfolio returns.
Since the people involved in the process are well-paid, it adds to
the cost of the fund management, leading to comparatively Assuming dividend yield of 1.5 per cent, it increased the thresh-
higher expense ratios of actively managed funds. Our study of old level for a fund manager by similar percentage to outper-
expense ratio for the large-cap dedicated funds shows that form their benchmarks. This has also helped passive investment
index funds and ETFs have much lower expense ratio that helps strategies as now even a lower number of funds can show
Caveat Emptor
The report by SPIVA is quite
comprehensive in its coverage;
however, it represents a single
3-Year Rolling Returns Of Mid-Cap Funds & Mid-Cap Index
point of comparison out of many
such possible points. Hence we
decided to check the performance
of the funds and their outperfor-
mance or underperformance
compared to the benchmarks on a
rolling basis. This will give us good
enough points to come to a proper
conclusion. For our analysis we
took the average returns of the
funds on a daily basis and con-
verted them into rolling three-year
and five-year returns. Similarly, we 5-Year Rolling Returns Of Large-Cap Funds & Large-Cap Index
did this for their respective
benchmarks. We did this exercise
for large-cap-dedicated funds and
mid-cap-dedicated funds and took
the regular plan with a longer
history.
period. The rolling return graph of the funds against their The reason for such allocation, as he puts it, is, “Till 2015 many
benchmarks reflects the same. actively managed funds were outperforming passively
Nevertheless, in case of mid-cap-dedicated funds in a longer managed funds; however, the table has turned since then as a
period of five years, we did not see any single period of handful of funds have consistently been able to do so. Since
underperformance by them. Nevertheless, in a three-year the expense ratio of the passively managed funds is significantly
period there were some instances of underperformance by the lesser than the actively managed funds, a more significant
funds. The reason why mid-cap-dedicated funds on an average allocation can be justified.” Nevertheless, in the case of
do better than their benchmarks is because of information mid-cap and small-cap funds, Joshi is of the opinion that
asymmetry that still exists in this category. As compared “many of the funds are consistently outperforming the passive
large-cap stocks, there is very less information asymmetry and funds.”
they are well-researched so that a fund manager has little
chance to generate alpha. Hence, where there is inefficiency in However, a few deliver significant alpha over more extended
the market, it gives opportunities to fund managers to identify timeframes of three and five years. As a result, it may make
investment opportunities and generate superior returns, sense to veer away from passively managed funds and rely more
resulting in a higher preference for actively managed funds on an active investing style as there is a huge room for alpha
versus passive funds. creation in the mid and small-cap space. We believe that the
Indian equity market and investor are yet to mature as a
Passive versus Active developed market and till that time actively managed funds
Now the moot question for an investor is whether he should especially dedicated to the broader market still stand a good
adopt a passive or active strategy to build his portfolio. chance to generate better returns than their benchmarks.
According to Prashant Joshi, Co-Founder and Partner, Therefore, we suggest building a portfolio which is mix of both
Fintrust Advisors LLP, “Given the Indian context, there is no actively and passively managed funds. Beginners would do well
strait-jacket answer to it. In the large-cap space, one can to to mark large-cap allocation towards index funds and
allocate up to 40-60 per cent towards passively managed funds.” well-managed active funds. DS
Director, Eastern Financiers Ltd With FOMO, it’s quite difficult to jump off a speeding equity
train to invest in low-return debt investments. Two, you may
face time constraints in putting your tactical allocation plan
into action. If you own a fairly large portfolio, deciding what to
sell and what to retain, and implementing this, can take time.
You also need to factor in variables such as short versus
long-term capital gains implications and the exit load structure
of your funds, while rebalancing.
Asset Allocator: decision. BAF juggles between equity and debt asset classes by
rebalancing the portfolio as and when required in an attempt to
deliver a smoother return journey to investors.
B
use a combination of pure equity exposures and derivatives to
ull markets can spell tough times for prudent investors make up this equity allocation. When market levels are high,
trying to strike a balance between enjoying the ride in BAFs own a low net equity position, with higher debt assets.
stock prices and shielding the portfolio against a When markets fall, they add to their net equity positions,
sudden fall. The present bull market is no exception. thereby helping an investor to buy low and sell high. In a rising
With the Sensex more than doubling from its March 2020 lows, market, the pure equity portion offers participation in upside.
the last 18 months have certainly been rewarding for investors In falling markets, derivative positions hedge against downside
who have kept faith in equities. But there’s no getting away and in flat markets, the debt allocation props up returns.
from the fact that with market valuations well above long-term
averages and macro risks looming, equity investors need to However, within this category, there is a wide variety in terms of
brace for a bumpier ride ahead. how the house houses choose to manage their portfolio. Broadly,
there are three ways in which funds are managed within this
From the pace of India’s recovery post-pandemic to RBI and category. There are schemes which maintain a high exposure to
Federal Reserve policies on normalising rates, to sticky inflation equities, i.e. upwards of 70 per cent while on the other end there
and state elections, there are quite a few upcoming events that are funds with very conservative equity allocation i.e. less than
could precipitate two-way market moves. Should earnings or 20 per cent and the third option is the middle-of-the-ground
growth disappoint, investors also need to prepare for a valuation approach with equity allocation hovering between 35-40 per
reset. Faced with such known unknowns, investors often tend cent. In an up-trending market, higher equity allocation will
towards extremes. Some over-cautious investors have jumped surely be a winner but as the market turns volatile, middle-of-
completely off the equity bandwagon in early 2020 to wait for a the-ground approach tends to be very helpful.
further correction, but that has led to missed opportunities.
In case an investor is looking to add gold to the mix of asset
Aggressive investors have let their equity allocations rise classes, then an interesting option to consider is the Asset
without check, but they risk losing money as market volatility Allocator Fund. The interesting aspect is that the fund has a
picks up. The solution to this eternal dilemma lies in prudent fund of fund structure which allows the fund manager to take
asset allocation. But this is easier said than done. Even if you exposure to a wide spectrum of market instruments and
are good at timing and have your entry and exit strategy all segments within a single fund. To conclude, if you are an
mapped out in your mind, putting tactical allocation moves investor looking for lump sum investment opportunities in the
into action presents practical difficulties. First, there are current market environment, an asset allocator or BAF can be
behavioural biases that will egg you on to postpone your your first order of consideration. DS
The writer is Director, Eastern Financiers Ltd n Email: Ambrish@easternfin.com n Website: www.easternfin.com
I am a regular reader of DSIJ’s ‘Mutual Funds Unlocked’ section. I have started saving and investing for my child’s education
which is five years away from today. The total amount invested is `5,000 per month via SIP in the following funds: Parag
Parikh Flexi Cap Fund (`1,500), Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund (`1,500), Axis Small Cap Fund (`1,000) and Tata Digital
India Fund (`1,000). This is to request you to kindly review the funds and suggest changes, if any.
- Athu Dhakshna
W
e assume that you have properly calculated the your portfolio.
requirement for your child’s education. As
regards to your mutual fund portfolio, these As far as your present allocation is concerned, we suggest you to
funds are more suitable from a long-term continue investing in Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund and Mirae
perspective. When we say long-term what we mean is an Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund. However, we would request you
investment horizon of seven years and above. However, the to either divert your systematic investment plan (SIP) in Axis
investment horizon mentioned by you for your child’s education Small Cap Fund and Tata Digital India Fund towards your
is five years, which according to us is medium-term. Therefore, retirement goal or straightaway stop the SIP in these funds. The
your mutual fund portfolio should be a good mix of equity and rationale behind the same is that these funds are more suitable
debt. That said, you have not mentioned your risk profile to for long-term goals. In fact, Tata Digital India Fund being a
recommend you any asset allocation. Assuming you are a sectoral fund requires active management. In case of debt funds,
moderate risk-taker, we would suggest an asset allocation of 40 we would recommend you to add SIP of `2,000 for Aditya Birla
per cent equity and 60 per cent debt. Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund and `2,500 in Axis Short Term
Fund.
After you assess your risk profile you can tweak the asset
allocation accordingly. If you are an aggressive investor then Assuming you get 12 per cent returns from equity funds and 8
have your portfolio tilted more towards equity and if you are a per cent from debt funds, your total expected portfolio returns
conservative investor, increase your exposure more towards work out to around 10 per cent. So, if we assume you invest
debt. Considering your risk profile to be moderate, in equity as `7,500 (`3,000 in equity plus `4,500 in debt) per month at an
well we would suggest investing in large-cap funds and mid-cap annualised returns of 10 per cent, at the end of five years you
funds and for debt consider investing in short duration funds, would be able to accumulate `5.78 lakhs. Moreover, we would
banking, PSU debt funds and corporate bond funds. We recommend you to move the accumulated amount in equity
recommend having exposure to debt funds because presently we every year to debt. This will help you book profits in equity and
are witnessing a bull run. However, when the markets will be in a comfortable position. It is not advisable to take
correct or move southwards, it is debt funds that would cushion unnecessary risk when it concerns your child’s education.
The market is heading down day by day. So, is it the right time to invest in mutual funds?
- Paras Jain
W
e agree with the observation that indeed the market is into a correction mode. Coming to your question, as a
market (hereon referred as Nifty 50) is not so mutual fund investor you do not need to time the market. In
cheerful. From October 19, 2021 it has been fact, you can simply invest in a Nifty or Sensex index fund via
moving downwards. Moreover, on November SIP and relax. SIP has the benefit of rupee cost averaging which
15, 2021 it failed to move above the high made on October 19, helps you tide the downside risk in the long run. Does this mean
2021. However, it did make a low of 17,216 which is lower than you cannot time the market with mutual funds?
the low made on October 29, 2021. That said, at present its
support zone is placed between the levels of 17,216 and 17,453. No, that’s not the case. In fact, there are sectoral funds which do
On the upside, its resistance zone is between the levels of 18,342 require timing the market. Also, one can try timing the market
and 18,605. Therefore, breaching the abovementioned levels on with index funds as well. However, we do not advocate timing
either side would direct the market’s next move. Moreover, it the market if you are investing for specific financial goals.
takes very good support on 100-day exponential moving Timing the market involves risk which you can take once you
average (EMA) and 50-day EMA. have made provisions for your financial needs. Therefore, we
always recommend dividing a portfolio into core and satellite. A
Therefore, unless it heads below the 100-day EMA it would be core portfolio would be aligned with your goals and more
difficult to say if the market is headed towards a big fall. probably would adopt strategic asset allocation. When it comes
Moreover, a downfall would also be confirmed if it continues to to a satellite portfolio where wealth creation is the main
make lower highs and lower lows. Technically speaking, the objective, tactical allocation is preferred the most.
I
nvesting money judiciously is the key to achieving your knowledge and use it in your investment process. If you find it
investment goals. It is equally important to imbibe certain overwhelming to analyse this information, take the help of an
traits that can, not only help you in starting the process advisor. Once you start working with an advisor, listen to him
right but also in ensuring that it remains on track through or her carefully as that can go a long way in allowing you to
your defined time horizon. However, despite investing money tackle the complexities of the investment world. The
judiciously, you may still have to face a number of challenges unwillingness to listen and allowing behavioural biases to
during your defined time horizon. The level of investment impact your investment decisions can make it difficult for you
success that you may achieve over time will depend upon how to adapt to the ever-changing investment and economic
you manage to either avoid these surprises or tackle them environment.
judiciously. Here’s what you need to do:
Be Open to Realignment
Create a Roadmap Your investment process, as well as options, must provide
You must create a roadmap at the start of your investment the flexibility required to realign the portfolio in line with
process. It is quite common to see investors investing randomly your changing circumstances as well as economic and
in different asset classes and exiting from them depending on political environment. Besides, you may have to contend
how these asset classes behave at certain points. Remember, a with volatility and non-performance of some of the
haphazard approach like this can not only make you miss out investments in your portfolio. Therefore, investing in mutual
on opportunities in the market but also expose you to funds can be a much better option than investing in traditional
unwarranted risks. Therefore, it is always advisable to look at options that do not allow you to the required flexibility.
the bigger picture and establish your goals to be achieved over However, don’t get tempted to make frequent changes just
short, medium and long-term horizons. A goal-based because you have the flexibility to do so. Another important
investment process will encourage you to follow budgeting, aspect is resisting the temptation of discussing your portfolio
give risk management it’s due and follow an asset allocation with all and sundry as conflicting views on your portfolio
model. composition can make you lose your focus and compel you to
make investment decisions that may compromise your
Stay Committed to Time Horizon financial future.
Once it is ascertained how much time you have to achieve each
of your goals, you must remain committed to it. This will help Avoid Emotional Investing
you in keeping focus on your goals without worrying too much You must avoid getting emotionally attached to your
about the impact of intermittent volatility on the portfolio in investments as that would make it difficult for you to make
the short term. Besides, if you continue your investment changes, when required. While tracking the portfolio plays a
process without interruption during market uncertainties, you significant role in keeping investments on track to achieve your
benefit from averaging. investment goals, it is equally important to be open to make
changes in the portfolio in case some of the investments
Keep Learning underperform their peer group and benchmarks for prolonged
Today, a lot of information is available on various investment periods. However, it should be done only after giving sufficient
options and strategies to invest in them through different time to fund managers to perform and prove their worth over
mediums. However, the key is to make efforts to absorb this different market cycles. DS
M
oody’s on October 5, 2021 changed the outlook credit rating, thus giving them the name ‘credit risk’ funds.
on India’s sovereign ratings to stable from Credit risk funds in India are mandated to allocate at least 65
negative and maintained its rating at Baa3 for per cent of their portfolio in debt instruments which are rated
India’s foreign currency, local currency long-term less than ‘AA’.
issuer ratings and the local currency senior unsecured rating.
The change in outlook was because they believed that the Investors began to exit from this category when Franklin
downside risks from negative feedback between the real Templeton shut down its six debt MF schemes in April 2020. As
economy and financial system are declining. As previously of October 2021, the fund house has distributed around 88 per
anticipated by the rating agency, with capital cushions and cent (`23,999 crore) to investors of the total of `27,333 crore
greater liquidity, banks and non-bank financial institutions assets under management (AUM) of the six shut schemes.
carry much lesser risk to the sovereign. Nevertheless, another
rating agency, Fitch reaffirmed its BBB sovereign ratings on
India, which is the lowest investment grade to India’s sovereign
rating. Fitch Ratings maintained its negative outlook as it is of
the opinion that India has a high public debt, a weak financial
sector and some lagging structural issues.
Credit growth among public sector banks remained modest, while there has been some uptick in case of private sector banks that
have provided the bulk (56.7 per cent) of incremental credit extended by scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) on a YoY basis as on
September 24, 2021. On the back of a favourable monsoon and measures to support the farm sector, even public sector banks
recorded credit growth on YoY basis in August 2021.
It is quite evident from the above graphs that the bank credit to industry has started to improve and can see a good improvement
on YoY basis. Credit to infrastructure – which accounts for around 38 per cent of industrial credit – also showed improvement, led
by credit to roads and airports. The primary driver of the overall credit growth to industry was infrastructure, followed by textiles.
Credit growth to the services sector slowed to 3.5 per cent in August 2021 from 10.9 per cent in the same month last year. This can
largely be attributed to the slowdown in credit to NBFCs that have been raising resources mainly from money and debt markets.
Historically we have seen there is a positive relation between debt-weighted credit ratio and returns generated by credit risk funds.
In years 2014 and 2016 we saw credit risk funds generating returns in double-digits and it is no coincidence that both these years
we saw the debt-weighted credit ratio improving. During FY17 we saw that although the credit ratio remained flat, the debt-
weighted credit ratio was at a five-year high. Similarly in 2014, we saw a marked improvement in debt-weighted credit ratio from
below 0.3 to around 0.5.
Rising credit ratio means lower risk and hence higher return as yield declines and value of bond increases. At the end of H1FY22,
debt-weighted credit ratio stands at greater than 2, which is a positive sign for such funds. The year-till-date returns from this
category of funds already give a sense of the returns that we can expect from such funds. The following table shows the calendar
year returns of credit risk funds:
Fund Name 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD On a YTD basis credit risk funds
UTI Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan 11.46 8.86 10.3 6.9 5.45 -4.79 -27.78 20.92
on an average gave 8.56 per cent
Baroda Credit Risk Fund- Plan A - - 11.3 8.43 5.9 2.09 2.4 18.71
returns but there were funds such
IDBI Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan - 8.6 8.94 5.2 5.62 -5.36 -3.5 15.55
as UTI Credit Risk Fund, Baroda
Credit Risk Fund, IDBI Credit
Franklin India Credit Risk Fund 11.89 9.29 8.71 8.27 8.4 3.99 -0.18 12.82
Risk Fund, Franklin India Credit
Nippon India Credit Risk Fund 10.97 8.78 10.01 7.03 6.03 1.94 -5.89 12.8
Risk Fund and Nippon India
BOI AXA Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan - - 11.22 9.32 -0.29 -45.23 -44.43 9.11
Credit Risk Fund that gave
PGIM India Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan - 10.79 9.98 7.27 5.04 3.02 -2.18 8.3
double-digit returns of 20.92 per
HDFC Credit Risk Debt Fund - Regular Plan - 9.01 10.96 6.57 5.33 8.65 10.91 6.43
cent, 18.71 per cent, 15.55 per
Aditya Birla Sun Life Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan - - 10.3 8.09 6.56 2.09 9.36 5.83
cent, 12.82 per cent and 12.80 per
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 10.97 9 9.54 6.77 6.61 9.48 9.79 5.79
cent, respectively.
Axis Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan - 8.7 9.79 6.43 5.86 4.35 8.21 5.51
L&T Credit Risk Fund 11.42 9.41 10.05 7.2 5.55 2.26 4.98 5.36
Kotak Credit Risk Fund Regular Plan 11.13 9.09 10.43 6.56 6.17 8.97 6.61 5.09 Should you Invest in
SBI Credit Risk Fund 10.62 9.71 10.48 6.89 6.15 6.5 9.78 4.56 these Funds?
IDFC Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan - - - - 4.97 9.15 7.44 3.63
To conclude, we believe that still
DSP Credit Risk Fund 10.76 9.64 10.6 6.43 -2.61 4.39 4.83 2.65
there is room for credit risk funds
Invesco India Credit Risk Fund - Regular Plan - 9.09 10.92 7.09 4.07 -4.53 7.98 2.54
to provide better returns as the
spreads between AAA and AA
are still attractive, though not as attractive as they were in the aftermath of the Franklin Templeton fiasco. We are of the opinion
that this is for an aggressive risk-taking investor who should not invest more than 10 per cent of his debt portfolio in credit risk
funds. Moreover, this should be included in the satellite portfolio and not be made a part of your core portfolio. Also, credit risk
funds need to be managed actively depending upon the credit situation and overall performance of the companies and the
economy. So, if you understand these nuances you can always invest in such funds as part of your tactical investment strategy.
1% for redemption within 365 days Shridatta Bhandwalkar & Vishal Mishra
Exit Load Fund Manager
Reason for recommendation TOP 10 Holdings
COMPANY NAME % TO NET ASSETS
The equity market across the world is at present on slippery ICICI Bank 8.01
ground with the emergence of the new variant of the corona
Infosys 7.84
virus. This has also put a question mark on the continuation of
the current pace of economic recovery. Therefore, it makes HDFC Bank 7.32
sense to invest in large-cap-dedicated funds as they have more Reliance Industries 7.29
levers to manage any economic downturn. In such a scenario, HDFC 4.38
Canara Robeco Bluechip Equity Fund remains one of the best Larsen & Toubro 3.73
funds from the large-cap category. What favours the fund is its State Bank of India 3.60
beta of 0.85 which is lower than that of the market i.e. 1 and Axis Bank 3.42
also is less than the category average of 0.95.
Bajaj Finance 3.22
In a volatile market it helps to contain loss in case the market Tata Consultancy Services 2.80
falls further. The fund has one of the best Sortino ratios of 1.18 sector. Even in the financial sector it has allocated more
as against the category average of 0.89 and S & P BSE 100 TRI towards banking stocks. Given the underperformance of banks
which is 0.94. If we look at the fund’s one-year rolling returns to the market in the last one and half years, we believe that they
spread across the period November 2015 to November 2021, are going to outperform in the future. Therefore, this fund
only 10 per cent of the times has it given negative returns makes more sense in the current market situation. Moreover,
whereas 36 per cent of the times it generated return between 10 investing in a staggered manner would be more beneficial as
to 20 per cent. In terms of its portfolio, the fund is quite bullish investors won’t have to worry about catching bottom of the
on financial, technology and energy sectors. downward move. Therefore, in view of how the overall
economy is developing at present the fund seems to have the
It has the highest weightage of 34 per cent in the financial highest potential to withstand turbulent times. DS
Monthly Returns
Buying
A Car?
Opt For
Subscription When it comes to owning a car, the first and
sometimes the only option that comes to mind is
that of purchasing it through a vehicle loan that
W
hen it comes to buying a car, all of us wish to In association with Revv, which is engaged in the car subscrip-
possess one that can cater to our needs, be tion business, Hyundai Motor Company offers the scheme
comfortable and not be too heavy on the wallet. across its entire model range but limited only to 20 cities. On
Thus, most people prefer to buy a car through a the other hand, Maruti Suzuki provides such a service in
vehicle loan. A majority of lenders provide 80 per cent of collaboration with Orix Auto Infrastructure Services India,
finance on the on-road price while some go up to 90 per cent which is a subsidiary of Japan-based Orix Corporation.
on the ex-showroom price. There have been instances when Currently, Maruti Suzuki offers its subscription model across
even 100 per cent finance has been provided to buyers with eight cities. The table below offers a comparison between taking
sound financial credentials. The advantage is that such a loan a Hyundai car on loan as against subscription. We have
can be paid off in easy monthly instalments. But there is assumed a loan tenure and subscription period of 36 months
another way of using a car as its owner – the subscription and rate of interest at 7.5 per cent. Moreover, we have assumed
model – which is gaining traction these days. So how does it that an individual can get 90 per cent of the ex-showroom price
work? as a loan while he bears the cost of down payment.
Hyundai's Grand i10 Nios - Sportz - Petrol – Manual
A subscription model for a car works on similar lines to Particulars Loan Subscription
subscribing for a magazine or a direct-to-home (DTH) A] On-Road Cost 7,95,043 7,95,043
connection. When you subscribe to a car, you need to pay a fee B] Ex-Showroom Cost 6,66,950 N/A
every month or for a pre-decided period in order to use the car C] % Loan on ex-showroom price 90.00% N/A
during the specified subscription period. Therefore, a subscrip- D] Loan Amount (90% x B) 6,00,255 N/A
tion service allows an individual to drive home a vehicle of his E] Down Payment (A – D) 1,94,788 N/A
choice for a monthly fee. This gives him full access to the F] Rate of interest 7.50% N/A
vehicle without having to make any down payment. In fact, G] Processing Fees @ 0.25% of Loan Amount 1500 N/A
subscribers only need to pay an all-inclusive monthly fee that H] Loan Tenure (in Months) 36 N/A
takes care of complete maintenance, insurance as well as I] Loan EMI 18672 N/A
roadside assistance. There is an option for the subscriber to opt J] Insurance Renewals (Monthly) 1150 N/A
out for maintenance. While Hyundai Motor Company started K] Maintenance Cost (Monthly) 300 300
such a subscription scheme in March 2019, it was soon L] Net Total Monthly Outflow (I + J + K) 20122 18630
followed by Maruti Suzuki in September 2020.
M] Total outflow during 36 months (L x 36) 7,24,380 6,70,680
With Ranking
T
Key To Databank
he following table lists top-ranked equity funds based on Category Rank: Category wise ranking as on Nov. 26th 2021
DSIJ's proprietary research methodology. We have Scheme Name: This is the name of the mutual fund scheme
evaluated each funds underlying portfolio of stocks and NAV (`): Net asset value per unit of a mutual fund or an exchange-traded fund
ranked them based on their expected portfolio returns. In a similar (ETF) on a specific date
way we calculated the risk of a fund based on its constituents. This AUM (`Crore): This is the total market value of financial assets held by the mutual
helps us to ‘rank’ and assign ‘risk’ to newly launched funds also. fund scheme on a specific date.
We continuously evaluate equity funds based on the changed Weightage: Large-Cap: This is a percentage of total assets held by a fund in the
large-cap stocks as defined by AMFI for the current period.
ratings of their underlying stocks and the change in their prices.
Mid-Cap: This is a percentage of total assets held by a fund in mid-cap stocks as
Therefore, this list is quite dynamic and reflects the best possible
defined by AMFI for the current period.
return potential of the funds for the next two years. Small-Cap: This is a percentage of total assets held by a fund in small-cap stocks as
You can use this ranking to create your own mutual fund defined by AMFI for the current period.
portfolio. Depending on your risk profile, return expectations and Total No of Companies: This is a total number of securities held by a mutual fund
overall asset allocation, you can add the best performing fund scheme at the end of a specific month.
category to your portfolio. For clarity and to include more funds, Expenses Ratio: This is the latest expense ratio disclosed by the mutual fund scheme
we have not included ‘Direct’ and ‘close-ended’ funds. You can visit Return_1Years: This is the past one-year return given by the scheme.
our website (www.dsij.in/mutual-fund) to check the entire list Expected 2-yr return: This is based on our analysis of the portfolio of mutual fund
along with equity-oriented hybrid and close-ended funds. scheme and their expected growth in the next one year, assuming the underlying
remains the same.
This ranking can also be used for reviewing different holdings
Current Rank: Rank as on Nov. 26th 2021
in your fund portfolio. Hence, a consistently laggard performer of a
Previous Rank of Nov. 11th 2021 is shown under bracket ()
category can be looked at as 'Switch' or 'Exit' advice.
Risk : Risk as on Nov.26th 2021
() There are some blanks in the previous ranking column. This is because these funds were not in our last ranking
** These funds are yet to complete one year
Asset Under Management of passively managed funds has significantly risen from 2,49,099.48 Cr. in October
2020 to 4,49,185.82 Cr. in October 2021. That represents 80.32 per cent increase in assets over October 2020.
Net Inflow of passively managed funds has risen from -1,877.74 crores in
October 2020 to 10.758.85 crores in October 2021.
Income/Debt Oriented Fund for the month of October 2021, saw net inflows to the tune of 12,984.38 Cr.
All the NAV figures are for date Nov., 26, 2021. Trailing returns are also calculated for the same date. AUM, weightage of a stocks, number
ofcompanies and expense ratio are for the period ending October 2021.
A Guide To Claiming
Life Insurance
The article explains in detail the kinds of maturity benefits that may be claimed from the insurance company in
N
case a policy has matured or the policy owner has expired before the maturity date
owadays people are well aware about the fact of the surplus ‘with profit’ to the policyholders in the form of
that life insurance is a crucial component of bonus. Insurance companies invest a huge proportion of
their financial planning. A majority of people premiums collected from policyholders in government-secured
possess life insurance in order to secure their debt instruments and a minor proportion in equities. And
dependents and family in case of the based on earnings from the investments and claim experience,
unfortunate demise of a policyholder. Life the company distributes a part of the surplus ‘with-profit’ to the
insurance is a contract that pledges payment of an amount to policyholders, often known as a participating policy, in the
the person assured (or his nominee) on the happening of the form of bonus. The rate of bonus is determined after taking
event insured against. This insurance comes as a breather in into account several factors like return on investments, level of
difficult times. Whenever anyone purchases a life insurance bonus announced in the preceding years and other actuarial
policy, he or she would always want to know how much money assumptions.
would be due to him and when.
preceding accumulated bonuses. with it including protection cover will cease to exist. Therefore,
3. Interim Bonus: Interim bonus is payable for those ideally, you should consider terminating the policy only if you
policies that mature as a result of a death claim in believe that you have been sold a policy that does not fulfil your
between two bonus declaration dates. While the policy requirements, or the features prove to be different from what
has already accrued the bonus declared at the end of the was promised to you.
last financial year, there may be a short period in between
the bonus declaration date and the maturity or claim date Proceeding with the Claim
for which the policy has not received bonus. In such When a family faces any sudden or unfortunate demise of their
cases, a bonus is added on a pro-rata basis using the loved one who is the sole breadwinner of the family then they
interim bonus rates declared by the company. may be in need of immediate cash in order to pay off any
4. Cash Bonus: This provides the policyholder an hospital bills or follow any proceedings related to death. So, in
opportunity to receive the bonus year on year rather than this case, beneficiaries need to know how to collect life
the usual way of accruing till bonus maturity. The insurance payments they are entitled to as proceeds from life
insurance company may decide to give the bonus in cash, insurance policies provide quick income for surviving family
i.e. bonus accruing in a year is paid to the policyholder at members. It is common for the policy beneficiary to deal with
the end of the year. the insurance company directly, get the claim process started as
soon as possible and collect benefits. For the same reason one
The most common types of claims are maturity must have answers to the following questions:
claim and death claim: n What type of life insurance policy or policies did the
deceased have?
1. Maturity Claim: At maturity, the insured gets the sum n Were the policies still in force at the time of death?
assured, vested bonus and loyalty additions, if any. n What benefits they will be entitled to?
Maturity claim is associated with the maturity benefit of n Who are the beneficiaries?
the policy. It means that when the policy completes its n How much claim will the beneficiaries receive?
tenure, a certain amount of money, called maturity claim
amount, is settled towards the life assured. It is paid only To claim life insurance benefits, the beneficiary should contact
if the policy completes its due course of time and the the insurance company’s local agent, office or check the
policy has been continued properly, i.e. all due premiums company’s website. Subsequently, a claim form needs to be
have been paid on time. submitted with detailed information. One should not leave out
any details while filling out the claim form. This can lead to
Maturity Value = Sum Assured + outright rejection of your claim. The companies ask
[(Sum Assured*Bonus per 1,000*Term of Policy)/1000] beneficiaries for the following requirements: claimant’s
statement giving details of the deceased, death certificate, ID
2. Death Claim: The primary feature of a life insurance proof of the beneficiary, insurance policy papers, discharge
policy is the death benefit it provides. Permanent policies form (if any), post-mortem report (if death is due to any
provide a death benefit that is guaranteed for the life of unnatural cause).
the insured, provided the premiums have been paid and
the policy has not been surrendered. The death claim In some cases, insurance companies seek for additional
amount is payable in case of policies where premiums are information in case of suspicious death or a large policy
paid up to date or where the death occurs within the days amount. This additional information is required in order to
of grace. Payment from the policy may be lump sum or as verify the genuineness of the claim. Further, if more than one
an annuity, which is paid in regular instalments for either adult beneficiary was named, each should submit a claim form.
a specified period or for the beneficiary’s lifetime. If the insured’s death is suspicious and the policy amount is
large, the insurer may investigate the circumstances
Surrender Value surrounding the death before deciding whether it has an
If in case any policyholder is not willing to continue his or her obligation to pay the claim.
insurance policy during the policy term then he or she has the
option of surrendering the policy. When the policyholder Conclusion
surrenders a policy before the maturity period for its cash value, To conclude, while making claim one should be aware of
life insurance protection ceases and the insurer has no further various components discussed in the above article as it might
obligation under the policy. When an insured surrenders the help you in receiving the right amount of claim with all the
policy before maturity, he or she does not get 100 per cent of benefits. Before claiming insurance the beneficiary should go
paid-up value but a percentage as mentioned in the policy. through the policy document of the deceased so that he does
What is the disadvantage of exiting the policy before maturity? not miss out on any information and ends up with a rejection of
Once you exit the insurance policy, all the benefits associated the claim from the insurance company. DS