equity

research R E S E A R C H R E P O R T

(USD mn) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F

Revenue (USD mn) 402 322 321 390 376
EBITDA (USD mn) 160 115 116 172 164
Net profit (USD mn) 69 29 24 71 70
EPS (USD/share) 0.0032 0.0013 0.0011 0.0033 0.0032
ROE (%) 13.2 5.1 3.9 11.6 11.4
P/E ratio (x) 65.4 156.8 187.0 63.5 64.6
P/BV ratio (x) 8.6 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 26.7 37.2 37.0 24.8 26.0
 2021F 2022F Changes
Old New Old New 2021F 2022F
Revenue 390 321 375 390 -17.7% 4.0%
Gross profit 150 121 158 173 -19.4% 9.5%
EBITDA 143 116 157 172 -19.3% 9.5%
Net profit 36 24 62 71 -33.4% 15.8%
 2

70,000 2,500
64,030 63,672
60,000 54,151 54,672 1,910 1,894
2,000 1,779
48,825 1,725
50,000 46,515 1,558
42,997 1,463 1,486
1,500 1,298 1,331
40,000

30,000 1,000
20,000 16,585
11,027 500
10,000

- -
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20F 1Q21 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21
Gold volume Gold (USD/oz)

Company Company

5,000 4,616 4,596

4,417 9,000
4,500 7,883
8,000 7,191
4,000
7,000 6,217 6,165 6,339
3,500 3,148 5,815 5,791 5,797
6,000 5,169
3,000
2,489 5,000
2,500
4,000
2,000 1,785
1,434 3,000
1,500 1,141 1,112 2,000
1,000 1,000
500 -
- 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20F 1Q21
Copper (USD/tonnes)
Copper volume

10,000 9,340 9,240 1,600

9,000 8280 1,400 1,342
8200
8,000
1,200
7,000
6,000
1,000
5,340
4,760
5,000 4,120 800 656 658 648 669
641 640
4,000 554 561
2,980 2,980 600
3,000
400
2,000
1,000 200
- -
1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21
AISC Copper (USD/ton) AISC Gold (USD/oz)
Profit & loss 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Balance Sheet (IDR bn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Revenue 402 322 321 390 376 Cash and equivalents 50 51 88 75 78
Cost of revenue (247) (208) (200) (217) (210) Trade receivables 7 6 7 7 8
Gross profit 155 114 121 173 166 Inventories 96 101 108 116 124
Selling expenses - - - - - Net- Fixed assets 320 297 267 347 312
G&A expenses (20) (20) (25) (22) (22) Other assets 478 475 548 718 800
Operating profit 135 94 96 151 143 Total Assets 951 930 1,019 1,264 1,322
EBITDA 160 115 116 172 164 Trade payables 33 20 22 23 25
Other op. income/exp (7) (20) (29) (21) (14) Short-term debt + CMLTD 141 130 139 149 160
Finance expense (20) (18) (19) (20) (21) Long-term debt 98 101 121 145 175
Inc/loss from assoc. - - - - - Other liabilties 154 114 121 384 393
Pre-tax profit 108 56 47 110 108 Total Liabilities 427 366 403 702 752
Tax expense (39) (27) (23) (38) (38) Minority interest 31 29 29 30 30
Minority interest - - - - - Paid capital 287 287 458 458 458
Net profit 69 29 24 71 70 Retained earnings 20 26 12 12 12
EPS (IDR) 46 19 16 47 46 Other equities 0 0 0 0 0
Total Equity 524 564 615 561 570

Cash Flow (IDR bn) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Key Ratios (%) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Net income 69 29 24 71 70 Revenue growth 36.8 (19.9) (0.4) 21.6 (3.7)
Depreciation & amortization 25 21 20 22 21 EBIT growth 9.8 (30.5) 1.7 57.3 (4.7)
Change in working capital 47 (55) 3 3 4 EBITDA growth 15.3 (28.2) 0.7 48.9 (4.5)
Cash flow from operations 141 (5) 47 96 95 Net profit growth 32.0 (58.3) (16.2) 194.6 (1.8)
Capex (119) 8 (39) (30) (42) Gross margin 38.7 35.5 37.8 44.3 44.1
Others (68) (10) (47) (110) (85) EBIT margin 33.7 29.2 29.8 38.6 38.2
Cash flow from investments (187) (2) (86) (139) (127) EBITDA margin 39.8 35.7 36.1 44.2 43.8
Changes in debt (20) (0) 25 29 35 Net margin 17.2 9.0 7.6 18.3 18.7
Changes in equity 102 39 51 1 1 ROA 7.3 3.1 2.4 5.6 5.3
Dividends paid - - - - - ROE 13.2 5.1 3.9 12.7 12.3
Others - - - - - Net gearing (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Cash flow from financing 82 39 76 30 35 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.7 2.7 3.6 4.1
Net Cash Flow 36 32 37 (13) 3 Interest coverage ratio (x) 8.2 6.3 6.0 8.5 7.7