NAME: MUHAMMAD JEANTEL HABIB

CLASS: A (INTER)

NIM : C1B020117

Find a review of concepts related to probability. 

Let's take a look at an example that illustrates how the concepts of probability can even be applied in 
certain situations. 

Before we discuss about probability, we have to know what is probability?

Probability is defined as the chance or occurrence of an event. This is supported by Lind [2002] who
defines probability as a measure of the likelihood that events will occur in the future. Probability is
expressed as between 0 and 1 or as a proportion.

Probability is expressed as a fraction from 0 to 1 or as a proportion. Probability 0 indicates something that

is unlikely to happen, while probability 1 indicates that the event is certain to happen.

Background of probability

Probability [better known as chance] was first introduced by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat in the
17th century through the game of dice. It was from this dice game that eventually developed other games
such as coin tossing, bridge card game [playing] and other games. Therefore, the concept of opportunity
is born through a game. During its development, the calculation of opportunities received serious
attention from scientists because it had a very important role in the development of other sciences, such as
modern physics, statistics, and others.

Benefit of probability

Probability is very useful for making the right decisions, because life in the world is not certain, so it is
necessary to see how much probability an event will occur. Probability is expressed as a fraction between
0 and 1 or as a proportion.
The following concepts are used in probability:

1. Probability with a Classic Approach.

According to the classical approach, probability is defined as the quotient of the number of events
referred to as all possible events. According to the classical approach, probability is formulated:

X
P(A) = n
Information:

 P (A) = probability of occurrence of activity A.

 X = The event in question.
 n = The number of events possible.

Example:

Two dice are thrown up at the same time. Determine the probability of number 5!

Solution:

The results in question (X) = 4, namely (1,4), (4,1), (2,3), (3,2)

The possible results (n) = 36, namely (1,1), (1,2), ..., (6,5), (6,6).

4
P(X = 4) =
36

P(X = 4) = 0,11
2. Probability with Relative Frequency Approach.

According to the relative frequency approach, probability is defined as:

 The proportion of time that an event occurs in the long run, if conditions are stable;
or
 Relative frequency of all events in a large number of experiments.

Probabilities based on the relative frequency approach are often referred to as empirical
probabilities. The probability value is determined experimentally, so that the probability
value is the limit of the relative frequency of the event. According to the relative frequency
approach, probability is formulated:

fi
P(Xi) = lim
n→∞ n

Information:

 P(Xi) = probability of event i

 fi = frequency of events i
 n = many problematic events

In practice, the relative frequency itself can be used to estimate the probability value of the
event in question.

Example :
From the results of the probability theory examination, 27 mathematics study program
students obtained the following values:

X 5,0 6,5 7,4 8,3 8,8 9,5

f 4 6 7 5 3 2

X = statistical value
Determine the probability that a student has a statistical score of 8.3!
 Solution:

The frequency of students with a score of 8.3 is f = 5

Number of students (n) = 27

5
P (X = 8.3) =
27
P (X = 8.3) = 0.19

3. Probability with a Subjective Approach

According to the subjective approach, probability is defined as the level of individual

confidence based on past events in the form of guesswork.

Problems example:

A director will select a supervisor from four candidates who have passed the screening
exam. The four candidates are just as smart, just as agile, and all of them can be trusted.
The highest probability [of acceptance] of becoming a supervisor is determined subjectively
by the director.
From these definitions, a general understanding of probability can be drawn up, namely as
follows:

Probability is an index or value used to determine the rate at which an event is random.

Because probability is an index or value, probability has limits, starting from 0 to 1 (0≤P≤1)
.
 If P = 0, it is called impossibility probability, it means that the event or event will not
occur.
 If P = 1, it is called the probability of certainty, it means that the event or event is
certain to occur.
 If 0≤P≤1, it is called probability probability, meaning that the event or event can or
cannot occur.
The Elements of Probability

To help us see and assess the main characteristics of data sets, we have studied how to present and
summarize data. Our main goal is to study data not only to present and summarize data, but also to carry
out analysis in order to absorb the information contained in the data sample and draw conclusions on the
population from which the sample originates. The logical basis of the process of taking statistical
inference about a population by analyzing sample data is probability. For example, a low probability
indicates that it is unlikely that an event will occur.

In drawing conclusions or information from a set of data, it is necessary to carry out experiments or
samples. The concept of probability is related to the notion of experiments (experiments) that produce
uncertain results. This means that an experiment repeated under the same conditions will produce
different "results". The term experiment that we use here is not limited to experiments in the laboratory,
but experiments as a procedure that is carried out in a certain position, where the condition can be
repeated many times under the same conditions, and after completion of the procedure various results can
be observed. Experimentation is the process of collecting data about a phenomenon that shows variation
in results.

some examples of experiments as follows:

EXPERIMENTS RESULTS
1) Chemical measurement Rx Long Rx
2) Interview with farmers The amount of rice production per
Ha
3) The result of a production There is a production defect
4) Providing drugs against disease Duration of healing

Often times are not only interested in an outcome that will occur, but whether the result is included in a
particular "result set". Here are some definitions and examples that are often used in the experimental
process.
1. Sample Room

The sample space is the set whose elements are the possible results of an experiment. The sample space is
written with the symbol S. If an experiment where a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, ………… .an shows all the results
that have occurred, then the sample space is written as follows.

S = (a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, ……… an)

2. Sample Points

The sample points are all the elements in a sample room, namely a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, ……… an

3. Events / Events / Events

Events are subsets of a sample space. Events are written with the capital letters A, B, and so on and the
events that may appear in the results are listed. For example, only a2 a4 is the result of the event, so that is
written:

A = results received {a2 a4}

An example of using the definition above is as follows.

1) Experiment: Throwing a die

Result: Appeared Die

Sample space: S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)

An event: A visible odd point {1, 3, 5}

B even point that appears {2, 4, 6}

2) Experiment: The selection of a FKM student, the GPA is recorded

Result: The number x which is the magnitude between) and 4

Sample space: S = (0 ≥ X ≤ 4)

An event: A GPA above 3… .. = {3 <X ≤ 4}

3) Experiment: Four workers were both exposed to air pollution

Result: it was recorded whether S or not T was sick

Sample room: {SSSS, SSST, SSTS, STSS, TSSS, SSTT, STST, STTS, TSST,

TSTS, TTSS, STTT, TSTT, TTST, TTTS, TTTT}

An event: A all patients recover {SSSS}

B there are two people who recovered (SSTT, STST, STTS, TSST, TSTS, TTSS}

New events can be formed from existing events using three basic operations, namely union, interaction,
and complementation arising from the use of the words "or", "and", and "no". Here is a further
description.

a). The event union A and B is the set of all the elements that are in it set A and B, written A B

b). The interaction of two events A and B, written A ∩ B, is the set of all existing elements

in A as well as B

c). The complement of event A is written Ac, is the set of all elements that are not inside A

E. Probability Calculation Principle

The probability value denoted by "P" is between the values 0 and 1. The formula is as follows:

0≤P≥1

Probability values always produce positive values, never negative values.

P (x / n) → positive number (+)

For example, the probability of rolling an odd number of dice P (odd / die) = 3/6

The principle of calculating probability has two kinds of calculations, namely the law of addition and the
law of multiplication. Usually in the law of addition if we need a probability in two events, we use the
keyword "or" in the sentence statement. For example, the probability of rolling a 2 or an ata 5 on a single
roll of a die. Meanwhile, the law of multiplication has the key word "and". For example, if a dice and a
coin are rolled together, what is the chance that side H rolls on the coin and side 3 on the die?

The following will explain the principles of probability calculation with various conditions that must be
considered.
1. The Law of Increase

In the law of increase, there are two conditions that must be considered, namely whether these two events
cancel each other out or can occur together. These two conditions are referred to as mutually exclusive or
non mutually exclusive.

a. Mutually exclusive events (mutually exclusive events = disjoint)

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive, if one event occurs it will negate the other event from
occurring, or it is said that these events can cancel each other out.

Examples of mutually exclusive events are as follows:

1. The surface of a coin,

2.Dice surface,

3. The birth of a boy and girl to a mother with pregnancy single.

For a mutually exclusive event, events that occur A and B are a combination of event A and event B
(mutually alien). Thus, the probability for such a condition is the sum of the two probabilities.

Example:

1). The probability of drawing a 2 or a 5 eye on the one-time throw of a die are:

P (2 5) = P (2) + (5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6

2). There are 5 candidates to be sent to the place of an outbreak of diarrhea (KLB)

(let's call it A B C D E), but only one person will send. Probability

(chances) D or E will be sent are:

P (DE) = 1/5 + 1/5 = 2/5E. Probability Calculation Principle

The probability value denoted by "P" is between the values 0 and 1. The formula is as follows:

0≤P≥1

Probability values always produce positive values, never negative values.

P (x / n) → positive number (+)

For example, the probability of rolling an odd number of dice P (odd / die) = 3/6

The principle of calculating probability has two kinds of calculations, namely the law of addition and the
law of multiplication. Usually in the law of addition if we need a probability in two events, we use the
keyword "or" in the sentence statement. For example, the probability of rolling a 2 or an ata 5 on a single
roll of a die. Meanwhile, the law of multiplication has the key word "and". For example, if a dice and a
coin are rolled together, what is the chance that side H rolls on the coin and side 3 on the die?

The following will explain the principles of probability calculation with various conditions that must be
considered.

1. The Law of Increase

In the law of increase, there are two conditions that must be considered, namely whether these two events
cancel each other out or can occur together. These two conditions are referred to as mutually exclusive or
non mutually exclusive.

a. Mutually exclusive events (mutually exclusive events = disjoint)

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive, if one event occurs it will negate the other event from
occurring, or it is said that these events can cancel each other out.

Examples of mutually exclusive events are as follows:

1. The surface of a coin,

2.Dice surface,

3. The birth of a boy and girl to a mother with pregnancy single.

For a mutually exclusive event, events that occur A and B are a combination of event A and event B
(mutually alien). Thus, the probability for such a condition is the sum of the two probabilities.

Example:

1). The probability of drawing a 2 or a 5 eye on the one-time throw of a die are:

P (2 5) = P (2) + (5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6

2). There are 5 candidates to be sent to the place of an outbreak of diarrhea (KLB)

(let's call it A B C D E), but only one person will send. Probability

(chances) D or E will be sent are:

P (DE) = 1/5 + 1/5 = 2/5

b. Non mutually exclusive (joint) events

Two or more events can occur together (but not always together)

Examples of non mutually exclusive events include the following:

1. Ace and diamond withdrawal

2. A man and a doctor

For non-mutually exclusive events, events that occur A and B are a combination of B. However, since
there are common elements in events A and B, the combined events A and B need to be subtracted from
the events in which A and B have the same elements. Thus, the probability that there are the same
elements between events A and B, the probability of A or B is probability A plus probability B and minus
the probability of the same elements in events A and B.

Example:

On drawing one card from a bridge card set, the chances of being drawn an ace or a diamond are:

P (as) = 4/52

P (diamond) = 13/52

There is an ace and a diamond: P (ace ∩ diamonds) = 1/52

P (as diamond) = P (as) + P (diamond) - P (as ∩ diamond) =

4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52 = 16/52

The following is a description of the three events that occur between events A, B, C, where there are
several elements that are the same between A and B, A and C, as well as B and C. Between A, B, and C
there are also the same elements so that for probability A plus probability B plus probability C minus the
probability of the same elements between A and B minus the same elements between A and C minus the
same elements between B and C minus the same elements between A, B, and C

2. Law of Multiplication

In the law of multiplication there are two conditions that must be considered whether the two events are
mutually independent or conditional. Given the independent and conditional events, the probability
calculation for that event is the law of multiplication. The actual multiplication rule is to find the
probability of a joint event (intersect = slice) between two events. Following are explanations and
examples for the two conditions.

a. Free events (independent)

Two events are said to be independent if the incident or the absence of an event does not affect other
events. This needs to be distinguished from mutually exclusive, in that an independent event will not
affect the other, whereas in mutually exclusive, two events cannot occur simultaneously.

For example, if a coin is rolled twice then the odds of H on the first toss and the second tosser are
independent.