VisionMobile-Developer Economics 2011
VisionMobile-Developer Economics 2011
VisionMobile-Developer Economics 2011
com
1
About VisionMobile Contents
Key takeaways 3
VisionMobile is a leading market analysis and strategy firm,
for all the things connected. We offer competitive analysis,
Chapter 1:
market due diligence, industry maps, executive training and
Developer Mindshare:
strategy, ranging from the industry's hottest trends to under
winners and losers in the platform race 11
the radar market sectors. Our mantra: distilling market
noise into market sense.
Chapter 2:
VisionMobile Ltd. Taking applications to market 26
90 Long Acre, Covent Garden,
London WC2E 9RZ Chapter 3:
+44 845 003 8742 The building blocks of mobile apps 43
www.visionmobile.com/blog
Chapter 4:
Follow us: @visionmobile
Brands go mobile 51
About BlueVia
BlueVia is the new global developer platform from
Telefonica that helps developers take apps, web services,
and ideas to market. BlueVia is built on four Founding
principles: Scale, Tools, Business Models, and Path to
Market. BlueVia offers ground breaking, zero risk, business
models for developers, along with 'mix & match' models to
create multiple revenue streams.
Disclaimer
VisionMobile believes the statements contained in this
publication to be based upon information that we consider
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions
expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing on
this publication only and the information, including the
opinions contained herein, are subject to change without
notice.
Windows is not yet the third horse in the three-horse mobile race. Use of
Windows Mobile has dropped among developers in the last year, while Windows Phone
is not yet seen by developers as a commercially viable platform. Yet Windows Phone 7
has managed to establish itself in the number two spot after Android in our Developer
Intentshare Index, among platforms where developers plan to invest. Microsoft’s
advantage comes from the influx of PC and Xbox developers, Microsoft’s best-in-class
tools and the promise of a substantial user base with the Nokia deal.
Symbian, Java abandoned. Symbian and Java ME are the two platforms with the
highest developer abandonment rates; nearly 40% of developers currently using
Symbian and 35% of developers currently using Java ME are planning to drop the
platforms. Java ME is suffering from negative hype despite having been embedded on
more than three billion handsets. Symbian is now officially a platform with an expiry
date, with the Nokia Symbian handset line-up set to be discontinued.
Losing money. In the gold rush to the applications economy, not everyone is making
money. About a third of respondents make less than $1,000 USD per application in
total, which is loss-making given that an application often takes months to develop.
Platform revenue potential. Not all platforms are born with equal revenue
potential. Our research revealed large discrepancies across platforms in terms of the
revenues applications are bringing to developers. iOS topped the chart, making 3.3x
App stores deliver reach. Reach is by far the most important reason behind
developers’ preference for app stores as a distribution channel. More than 50% of
developers distributing through Apple, Google, Nokia or BlackBerry app stores cite the
ability to sell to more users as the primary reason for app store selection.
Developer-market balance. Android is the one and only platform that is tri-
laterally adopted by developers across all three major continents active in application
development - Europe, North America and Asia. On all other platforms, there is an
imbalance of developer supply and market demand across the globe. iOS is lagging in
developer mindshare in Asia while BlackBerry developers are almost completely lacking
Cloud APIs. Cloud connectivity is not just a fad among developers; it’s also where a lot
of the innovation is taking place. We found that iOS, Android and mobile web
developers are the most active users of cloud APIs, while BlackBerry and Java
developers were the late adopters of the ‘cloud’.
Brand journey through mobile. Despite the diversity across verticals and regions,
we found that all companies go through a three-stage journey as they extend their
digital strategies into mobile. In their first steps in going mobile, “newbie” brands think
of an app as a way to ‘advertise’ whatever product or service they are providing. As they
get Street Smart, brands ask, “How can we use apps to drive our core business?” And
The platform conundrum. For brands, extending their presence to mobile is a very
different beast, compared to any other digital medium. Whereas on the web one needs
compatibility with two or three mainstream browsers to reach 80% of users, going
mobile means using the top three or four mainstream native platforms (iOS, Android,
Symbian and BlackBerry) to reach just over 20% of the devices sold, on average.
Platform priorities For companies going mobile, platform priorities are mixed, but
the core challenge is common – market penetration and reach across the customer
base. Organisations developing B2C apps (targeted at consumers) are extending their
offering first Apple and then to Android, to mobile web, to BlackBerry and finally to
Windows Phone 7. For B2B apps (applications paid by the corporate IT manager or
CIO), HTML is already the platform of choice- not just for deployment on mobile web
browsers, but also by converting HTML and JavaScript into native iPhone and Android
apps using tools from companies such as Appcelerator, PhoneGap, RhoMobile and
Sencha.
Developer Economics 2011 takes the reader across the entire developer journey, from
the shift of mindshare and why “users can buy you love,” to how money is made in
mobile. It covers the hottest issues, from app design and promotion to monetisation
and user support.
In this year’s research, we have delved into the world of brands that are going mobile,
to understand what makes them tick, and how they are planning to conquer the mobile
world. While app stores initially kick-started the mobile app economy, it is brands that
are now fuelling it.
We spent the last few months quizzing developers and industry executives about the
future of mobile. Our research included 20+ industry executives, along with 900+
developers from 75+ countries working on 8+ major platforms.
We believe our work has yielded important insights about the future of mobile
development and hope you enjoy reading this report as much we enjoyed writing it!
Thank you!
We‘d like to thank the executives and developers who helped make this report a reality
– those who spent the time on the phone or online to offer a glimpse of the world
through their eyes, with its ups and downs. You know who you are.
We’d also like to thank the many companies who helped us reach out to developers –
Distimo, Enough Software, Flurry, Funambol, GetJar, LiMo Foundation, MEX,
Microsoft, Mobile Monday London, Nokia, Oracle, Qualcomm, RIM, WAC, WIP –
without which we would not have been able to reach such a diverse spectrum of
developers.
And of course – a huge thank you to James Parton and the team at Telefonica, without
whose financial support this research would simply not have been possible.
Last year we, like VisionMobile, felt there was a real gap in the market for a piece of
research that credibly identified the issues facing developers in the mobile space.
Based on the response to 2010’s inaugural report, it seems you agreed with us. The
success of the publication really surpassed our expectations. The report was
downloaded over 10 thousand times, while TechCrunch called it “one of the most
profound [reports on mobile development]…to date”.
We’re delighted to be supporting the project once again in 2011, as this allows the
research to be made freely available for download. Telefonica remains steadfastly
committed to understanding the needs of developers, in order to help shape the
BlueVia roadmap, and 2010’s Developer Economics findings were a key input into the
thinking that produced the initial release of BlueVia.
This year’s edition delves into the hottest issues in mobile apps: which platforms gained
and lost developer mindshare, what are the most popular revenue models, which go-to-
market channels are the fastest to pay, how apps in smartphones vs. tablets vs. TVs will
play a role in the future, and more.
We have more than doubled the number of respondents, compared to 2010’s research,
with developers now representing 75 countries. For the first time, we have added
insight into digital strategies from over 50 leading international and regional brands,
through 20 one-to-one interviews with digital agencies, media, retail and Internet
companies.
I hope you enjoy reading the report as much as we have enjoyed working with
VisionMobile to deliver it.
Among the 900+ participating developers, 850+ took our online survey. These
developers represented 75 countries, across eight major platforms: Android, iOS,
Windows Phone, Symbian, Java ME, MeeGo, mobile web (HTML and JavaScript) and
Qt. Each platform was represented by at least 50 developers who reported spending the
majority of their time on that platform. To remove platform bias, we averaged all
results presented in this research across these eight major platforms.
The developers that took part in our online survey came in their majority (90%) from
Europe, North America and Asia while another 10% came from South America, Africa
and Oceania. Respondents included both novice and seasoned developers, with an
average of three years mobile experience, and six years PC development experience.
In addition to the online survey, one-to-one interviews were carried out with over 40
developers. This group ranged from hobbyists to CEOs of games companies, and from
one-person startups to technology giants.
Moreover, 21 one-to-one interviews were carried out with senior executives from a wide
spectrum of commercial organisations and digital agencies. All the executives we talked
to had decision-making authority, and the majority worked within or with marketing
and strategy departments. Sectors covered directly or indirectly included digital
agencies, media, retail, pure Internet, telecoms, FMCGs (fast-moving consumer goods),
sports, banking & financial, marketing & communication, health, automotive, travel,
leisure, and music.
1. Developer Mindshare:
winners and losers in the platform race
The impact of apps and software ecosystems in the mobile industry has been nothing
short of astonishing.
Apps have turned the handset manufacturer business upside down in the last two years,
as players with strong software ecosystems like Apple and Google replaced the weakest
of the 'old guard’ in the leaderboard of top-five handset vendors by unit sales. Nokia
had clung for too long to the 10-year-old Symbian platform – and at the last minute it
had to “jump off a burning platform” by partnering with the lesser of two evils
(Microsoft rather than Google) to salvage its smartphone line. Sony Ericsson and
Motorola failed to recapture the glory of the RAZR and Cybershot days, and are
dropping off the top-ten chart.
Software has also disrupted the network operator world in many ways. Today, software
innovation outpaces network innovation by at least a factor of five: application
developers often reach market in only three to six months, while operators take 18-24
months to launch a new service. In other words, it has become impossible to innovate
outside software. Any such innovation will be outrun and marginalised by more agile,
more nimble software-led players.
More importantly, software-led players like Apple and Google have benefited at the
expense of the very network operators who funded their entry into mobile; the vast
majority of Android handset models produced in 2008-2010 have been sponsored by
operators in order to attract new subscribers, while the majority of iPhones have been
subsidised as part of a 12-24 month telco contract. It is these same software-led players
that are now competing with operator services and challenging their established control
points, including location look-ups, billing, service discovery, authentication. Software-
led players are even questioning the operator hold on mobile termination (see Google
C2DM) and subscriber activation (see soft SIMs).
As telecoms players are dragged to the software era, network operators and handset
OEMs need to become ‘platforms’ (enablers) for developer innovation. They also need
to rebuild their strategies on the game rules of software economics, as we shall see next.
The single biggest surprise that software has brought to the mobile industry has been
the change of economics – from supply-side economies of scale to demand-side
economies of scale.
The mobile industry has been built from the ground-up on supply side economies of
scale; billion-dollar investments behind handset vendors have created production
powerhouses where the few are able to dramatically drop supply and manufacturing
costs. This is why Nokia has been able to buy handset components in far higher
volumes and at far lower prices than everyone else, allowing Nokia to dominate
emerging markets in terms of price points. Supply-side economics of scale are common
sense: the bigger the company, the lower the costs; the lower the prices, the bigger the
sales.
The textbook ‘worst practice’ here is Nokia: the Finnish OEM has been excelling at
creating supply-side economies of scale. With over 400 million devices shipped in
2010, Nokia can demand unbeatable pricing from its suppliers, and thus has an
inherent advantage in cost-sensitive emerging markets.
At the same time, Nokia – like most of the traditional top-five OEMs including
Motorola and Sony Ericsson - failed to understand the demand-side economies of scale
practiced by Google and Apple. For too long, developers were a second priority for
Nokia’s Symbian and Java platforms. Lacking in the attractiveness of both its route to
market (Ovi) and its platforms, Nokia quickly saw developer mindshare migrate to iOS
and Android. Both these competing platforms managed to build self-sustaining
network effects of unprecedented scale; for example, Apple reached 10 billion app
downloads in the space of 30 months. Eventually, Nokia had to backtrack against 20
years of corporate strategy and outsource its smartphone platform to a coopetitor –
Microsoft – whose Windows business has flourished due to network effects.
Mobile web (the platform for apps written in HTML or JavaScript) is continually
increasing in terms of developer attention and media hype. At the same time, HTML
apps can’t compete on equal grounds with native platforms, in terms of user experience
or depth of API reach. Meanwhile Java, with its broken promise of write-once-run-
anywhere, is fast being eclipsed out of the smartphone-centric mobile developer
agenda, with Java’s advantages in the feature phone market largely being ignored by
developers.
All in all, the platform race has not only intensified, but also sped up. Yet, amidst all the
industry hype, there is no accurate metric of how mobile platforms are falling in or out
of favour with developers.
Our Developer Mindshare Index does exactly that, by tracking which mobile platforms
are mostly used among developers. The next chart shows the top eight mobile
platforms, and how the Developer Mindshare Index has changed in the last year.
Developers are increasingly experimenting with more and more platforms. Developers
use on average 3.2 platforms concurrently based on our sample of 850+ online
respondents. This represents a 15% increase from last year’s figure, indicating how
developers are more willing to experiment with new platforms and actively
transitioning to new ones. In parallel, more experienced developers are entering the
mobile app economy, which helps boost the average platform numbers.
Android and iOS have further solidified their top two positions in the Mindshare Index,
and are now established in a league of their own in terms of both developer ecosystem
and user base. Apple’s iOS stands at over 350,000 apps and 110 million devices sold,
while Android stands at over 200,000 apps and 110 million devices sold, as of Q1 2011.
Mobile web as a platform has seen an impressive upturn in usage over the last year, and
is now in third position in the Developer Mindshare Index. The popularity of mobile
web as a platform is driven by four factors:
1. Mobile web is the primary choice for cross-platform development and for addressing
the long tail of device models beyond iPhone and Android.
2. Segments of web developers familiar with HTML and JavaScript development are
being attracted to develop for mobile devices. Moreover, web developers deal with
fragmentation (resolution, aspect ratio, input methods) as part of their day-to-day work
and so are well equipped to deal with the multi-platform nature of mobile.
3. Companies across industry verticals – from brands to banks – who are extending
their digital strategies into mobile apps are using the mobile web as a low-cost, mass-
reach platform across devices globally. Similarly, corporate IT departments that need to
Windows is not yet the third horse in the three-horse mobile race. Use of Windows
Mobile has dropped among developers in the last year, due to two reasons. First, the
older Windows Mobile has been dying a slow death in the last two years, with Microsoft
unable to match Apple or Google in terms of device sales or developer hype. A large
number of Windows Mobile MVPs (most valuable professionals - the acknowledged
community opinion leaders) have been attracted by the strength of Apple’s consumer
apps proposition and switched to developing iPhone apps. Second, the newer Windows
Phone is suffering from lacklustre sales, estimated at just over three million handsets
sold by the end of Q1, 2011, according to Gartner and IDC figures.
Java ME and Symbian platforms show a steady mindshare decline. Java ME is suffering
from negative hype despite having been embedded on more than three billion handsets.
Symbian is now officially a platform with an expiry date, with the Nokia Symbian
handset line-up set to be discontinued.
Across mobile platforms, Android is not just the king of developer mindshare, it’s also
the easiest platform for developers to experiment with. This is for several reasons:
1. Android has fewer restrictions on ‘deep’ APIs like access to the home screen,
multimedia codecs, SMS texting, telephony and streaming functions when
compared to the iPhone.
3. Applications on the Android are easy to sideload (i.e., to install from a connected
PC, rather than from an official app store). This facilitates beta testing among peers,
without having to meet quality standards needed for publishing an app to the Apple
App Store.
What’s even more telling of the future of the platform race? Our Developer Intentshare
Index, tracking the top-eight mobile platforms developers are planning to use.
Combined an indication of which platforms developers are abandoning, it shows the
ebb end flow of developer interest across mobile platforms.
Despite being a young, six-month old platform, Windows Phone 7 has managed to
establish itself in the number two spot, claiming nearly 35% in the Developer
Intentshare Index. Microsoft’s advantage comes from the strength of the XNA and
Silverlight developer tools and the promise of a substantial user base with the Nokia
deal. Microsoft has also cleverly targeted its Windows Phone platform - not to existing
Windows Mobile developers who are disillusioned with the legacy platform, but to
Google’s Chrome OS ranks highly with the promise to follow Android’s market
penetration with nearly one in four developer stating they plan to use - Google’s
Chrome OS ranks highly with the promise to follow Android’s market penetration with
nearly one in four developer stating they plan to use the platform.
MeeGo and Qt still garner developer optimism. Nokia has left developers with no
guidance as to the future of MeeGo and Qt, and yet developers show more interest in
these two platforms than BlackBerry, on which RIM is spending hundreds of millions in
acquisitions.
As the platform abandonment chart shows, Symbian and Java ME are the two
platforms with the highest developer abandonment rates; nearly 40% of developers
currently using Symbian and 35% of developers currently using Java ME are planning
to drop the platforms.
Qualcomm’s BREW is perhaps the biggest surprise amidst platforms being abandoned.
With the latest BREW MP platform, Qualcomm made a platform investment of
hundreds of millions of dollars, including a development team of over three hundred
people. And, it managed a major feat, in closing deals for AT&T and Verizon feature
phone devices. Yet, with BREW remaining an aging development environment,
Qualcomm has not managed to retain developer mindshare and compete in the new
rules of the game, where apps and APIs matter over and above devices and carrier
deals. Already 25% of respondents using BREW are planning to abandon the platform.
Before WAC has managed to ship its first device (see our case study on Smart’s
Netphone), developers are already abandoning the widget-based, operator-backed
platform. This comes as little surprise given the poor track record of operator-driven
software platforms, including SavaJe, the i-mode alliance, LiMo Foundation, and now
WAC. Creating a developer ecosystem requires very different culture and organisational
DNA than what’s needed to build a telecoms network.
Flash is another platform that appears to be losing the battle for mobile developer
mindshare. While overall mindshare for the Flash platform increased in 2011, we
believe this is due to new segments of ActionScript developers and Flash designers who
are starting to develop for mobile. In parallel, Flash runs sixth among platforms
developers plan to abandon. The root cause is nothing else other than Adobe’s own
mobile strategy, who much like Sun failed to materialise the vision of a write-once-run-
At the other end of the application economy, brands and companies across verticals
have had a slower, less refined approach to platform selection. Apple and, to a certain
extent, Android are the preferred entry point for brands and publishers who want to
extend their digital strategies to mobile with a ‘premium’ experience. Moreover, as
brands and organisations increase their understanding of mobile, so their digital
strategies demand reach into the mass-market. This demand for reach is usually served
through three means: mobile websites (developed internally or outsourced), and in
some cases use of mobile app publishing platforms (e.g. Communology, Conmio,
Mobiletech) or magazine-style publishing platforms like Flipboard, Taptu and Zite.
We found that developers have become even more business-savvy in the last year.
Among the top five reasons for selecting a platform, there is just one technical reason
and four commercial ones, as shown in the next graph.
Money can't buy you love, but users can! Large market penetration (the ability to reach
users) was the most crucial factor for platform selection: half of the respondents across
Platform selection criteria do not vary significantly by company size, either. The only
notable insight is that as companies grow, platform selection criteria shift away from
market penetration and into prioritising the platform the client has requested.
However, before platform vendors go out and start adapting their marketing messages
to emphasize user reach, there is some very important small print here: platform
selection criteria differ considerably across developers using different platforms.
In our research, almost 50% of respondents who develop for smartphones also develop
for mid-range (messaging and Internet capable) phones. Moreover, we saw a four-fold
increase in the number of developers planning to develop apps for TV or set-top boxes,
indicating that the market for living room apps is developing momentum. Nearly a
quarter of Android, iOS, Java, mobile web and Qt respondents are planning to target
TV and set-top boxes in the future.
Java, the king of cross-platform apps, has lost its allure. Java developers come third in
planning to target multiple screens. Moreover, Java developers show a very strong
intent in transitioning from mid-range to smartphones, away from the stronghold of
the Java platform.
The next graph shows the developers currently targeting different screen types.
Currently iOS developers show strongest preference for targeting smartphones,
whereas Java developers show strongest preference for targeting mid-range phones.
But future intent is very different; iOS and Blackberry developers show least interest in
a multi-screen future, whereas Qt and Android developers show most interest towards
coding for multiple screens.
Most network operators, handset OEMs or consumer brands often use the word
“developer” to attach a label to anyone developing mobile applications, whether a
hobbyist or a programmer within a Fortune-500 company. However, in today’s world,
where developers are the foremost mobile innovators, we need to become more savvy in
understanding who exactly these “developers” are.
There are many ways to segment “developers”: by geographical region, platform used,
level of experience, criteria for platform selection, by the category of applications they
are developing or by industry verticals they are catering to. Developer segmentation is
as sophisticated as consumer segmentation. But in whatever metric or measure is used,
We next look at some of the ways developers differ based on app categories, level of
experience and geographical location.
This implies that platform vendors need to cover their soft spots, in terms of app
categories that developers are less active in. Operators, meanwhile, need to tap into the
right developers to address their service portfolio. Finally, for developers, genre gaps on
specific platforms may provide opportunities to stand out.
Experience matters
Every self-respecting software platform today needs to have a fast learning curve (more
on that in Chapter 3). At the same time, there’s no substitute for experience – and the
distribution of development experience is anything but balanced across the developer
ecosystem. We see platform vendors lacking sophistication in their targeting of the
developer ecosystem as we discuss next.
With the shift away from Symbian, Nokia is bleeding high-calibre mobile developers.
Symbian developers are on average the most experienced in mobile software, with these
developers being 15% more likely to have seven-plus years of mobile experience.
We can also quantify the signs of Apple’s allure towards experienced PC and Internet
developers, since the iOS platform attracts significantly more developers with seven-
plus years PC/Internet experience, compared to other platforms. This confirms that
experienced software developers are moving into mobile, using iOS as an entry
platform, in what we believe is driven by the sudden rise in demand for developer
talent, especially in North America.
Since launching in late 2010, Windows Phone 7 has done pretty well in attracting
seasoned developers. We see experienced mobile developers coming to Windows
Phone, with a significant bias of current Windows Phone developers having between
three and six years of mobile experience - an indication that Microsoft’s strategy to tap
into PC and Xbox developer segments is paying off.
BlackBerry developers are naturally concentrated in North America, with 16% more
respondents from that region; but in addition, they are almost completely lacking in
Europe. This reveals a major gap in RIM’s developer marketing efforts.
The traditional sweet spot for Java developers has moved out of Europe to emerging
markets: Asia, Africa and South America, with 42% more respondents from these
regions. This is due to low penetration of iOS and Android in Asia, Africa, and South
America, and also to Java having suffered from negative hype in the traditional
development hubs of Europe and North America.
Flash Lite is another platform that exhibits a huge gap between markets (demand) and
developers (supply). The sweet spot for Flash Lite is in emerging markets where the
platform delivers best-in-class experiences on mass-market Nokia Series 40 handsets -
and not on the iPhone or Android platform where Flash can’t compete with native apps
in terms of user experience. Yet there are very few Flash developers targeting such
emerging markets. “We are one of very few developers for Nokia handsets in the South
East Asia region. The Flash Lite theme market for low-end phones is a blue ocean,”
notes Stefan Wessels, co-founder of Breakdesign, a company with more than 7 million
app downloads.
Android is the one and only platform that is tri-laterally adopted by developers across
all three major continents active in application development: Europe, North America
and Asia. “Entry to Android is very very easy. There will be a stampede of developers on
Android” notes Kishore Karanala, a seasoned Symbian developer with 5+ years of
mobile app experience working for Teleca India. In contrast, iOS is lagging in developer
mindshare in Asia, due to the relatively low penetration of Apple devices in Asian
countries.
To illustrate the intricacies of app development, we’ve put together the Developer
Journey, a chart showing the tens of touch points in the life of a mobile developer. The
Developer Journey is an important tool, not just for appreciating the complexity of
mobile development, but also for helping platform vendors map the competitive
landscape of supply and demand, and understand how to differentiate.
The Developer Journey consists of the following six stages. Note that the Developer
Journey presents a comprehensive model covering every possible touch point – which
implies that most developers will selectively touch on some of the stages below, but not
all.
2. Develop & debug, is where the hard work takes place: coding the application,
designing the UI, testing and porting. This stage is where the vast majority of developer
programs are focused today.
3. Market readiness, an often under-hyped part of the developer journey where the
application is readied for publishing to the market – including localisation, packaging,
variant management, certification and submission.
6. In-life use is the final stage, in which developers need to track sales and usage
analytics, support users and manage ratings, as well as update the application with bug
fixes and features.
Chapter 1 in this report has looked at the application planning stage. Chapter 3 will look
at the develop & debug stage. The rest of this chapter will examine the last four stages
of the developer journey, i.e., the challenges and opportunities in taking applications to
market.
App stores have irreversibly changed the landscape of mobile application distribution
today. In the last year, use of other application distribution channels has consistently
declined across the board; most notable are the year-on-year 20-30% declines in app
distribution via third party aggregators, on-device preloads, and via developers’
website.
Operator portals, whose ‘walled gardens’ once dominated content distribution, are
paling in significance compared to app stores. “Downloads through operator portals are
still less than one million per month on average per operator,” notes an executive at one
mobile app development house and continues, “Compare that to one billion per-month
downloads from the Apple App Store”.
Use of each channel to market also varies significantly per platform. App stores are
used primarily by iOS (77%) and Android (54%) developers. In contrast, mobile web
and Java ME developers distribute apps primarily through their own websites and
portals, due to the lack of app stores with sufficient reach and discoverability.
Reach is by far the most important reason behind developers’ preference for app stores
as a distribution channel. More than 50% of developers distributing through Apple,
Google, Nokia or BlackBerry app stores cite the ability to sell to more users as the
primary reason for app store selection.
Exclusivity is not a critical reason for app store selection, either; only one in five
Android and Blackberry developers choose an app store because it was the only
distribution channel available. Moreover, neither the revenue share split nor the speed
of payment are cited as important reasons for distributing via an app store. Support for
marketing and promotions is the third most important reason for using app stores as a
distribution medium; we expect marketing support to increase in importance as app
stores develop more sophisticated targeting and promotional programs.
App stores are relatively quick to pay, too. Just over 60% of respondents using app
stores get paid within one month from submission. The only distribution channel that’s
faster to pay is when developers are using their own website, where 75% of respondents
get paid within a month of the purchase.
Drilling down into the ins and outs of the four main app stores, our research reveals
significant differences across Android Market, Apple App Store, BlackBerry App World
and the Nokia Ovi Store – as the next chart reveals.
Apple’s App Store has a notoriously unpredictable quality control and curation process
during app submission, which causes some dissatisfaction across developers. The
mainstream press is peppered with stories of apps whose approval was inexplicably
delayed or even rejected when the apps conflicted with Apple’s own agenda.
The application quality review process is straightforward in the case of Android, but not
so for Nokia’s Ovi Store. Developers that we spoke to report that the Ovi Store
submission process is cumbersome and unnecessarily restrictive. Due to tough
approval criteria, an application typically takes five or more review cycles before it can
Ovi is not alone in being criticised for its problematic “Typically it takes 1-2 days to have
application submission process. “It’s difficult to get a an app published on GetJar and 2-
sign-off for Bada apps. Every week we have a new 4 weeks on the Nokia Ovi Store.”
problem with the Samsung App Store, including
poor documentation, language barriers and Mark Shoebridge
Binu
unreasonable control from Samsung, even on Sydney, Australia
application design issues” notes a developer in the
UK who has already published four Bada apps.
In platforms like Android, where tens of app stores compete for user attention, the
picture is quite complicated. Unfortunately, the vast majority of developers do not have
the resources to distribute their apps through more than one or two app stores. At the
other end of the spectrum, only a dozen or so software houses can deliver apps to the
majority of app stores, with that number typically ranging to 70+ app stores.
We believe that the app economy needs a single entry point for application submission
(one per platform), along with a million distribution channels:
- one app submission process, i.e., a single website, single contract, single approval
process, single billing & settlement and a single mix of business models per platform
An early role model for this single-in, many-out distribution model is perhaps Amazon.
Amazon’s app store addresses many of the challenges of Android Market, including
quality control and curation, relevance and recommendations, as well as device
compatibility, showing only those apps that are compatible with each handset model.
Amazon further leverages its retailing expertise and consumer insights to set the price
for each application, between 70% of the sale price and 20% of the list price.
We believe that app store fragmentation offers two opportunities. First, for app store
brokers with a develop-once-publish-many model, who can take an application and
publish it across multiple app stores. Second, for app stores that offer sophisticated
marketing and promotional channels that can optimise app pricing based on the user,
region or bundle the app appears with.
By far the most popular planning and testing techniques before app launch are peer
reviewing with friends or colleagues and beta testing with customers. Both these
techniques are used on average by about 50% of developers. Use of market research has
significantly increased in the last year, and is most popular among developers who use
app stores as their primary channel to market.
Despite the importance of app planning, most developers still use rather
unsophisticated techniques, like peer reviewing, for establishing whether an application
is ready for launch. And it’s not a question of price; beyond the use of elaborate, costly
techniques, like running focus groups or using scenarios and personas, there are more
accessible planning alternatives that exist today that can help in the stages leading to
the launch of the app. For example, application analytics (e.g. Distimo, PositionApp)
can reveal important competitor intelligence about apps in the same region or genre,
while crowd-sourced beta testing (e.g. Mob4Hire, uTest) can offer crucial, unbiased
feedback to developers before app launch.
App promotion is another thorny issue for developers publishing their own
applications. Developers are clearly discontent with the lack of promotion options
across most app stores; there are very few off-the-shelf tools available to help
developers promote their apps. Four out of five developers do promote their apps, with
Despite the challenges in application promotion, best practices are starting to emerge in
up-selling and cross-selling. A major games house sees a 20% conversion rate from free
to paid with an ad-supported, “full freemium” model. In other words, one in five users
who try a fully functional, ad-supported game, go on to buy the paid, ad-free version of
that game, or buy another game that is advertised. In contrast, ‘light’ or ‘demo’ versions
with limited features or levels result in lower conversion rates.
Given the long tail of hundreds of thousands of application developers, what the app
economy lacks is an out-of-the-box “SDK” for app marketing. Such a toolkit would
allow developers to invest in targeting the right users and increasing exposure. This
lack has prompted tens of startups to offer recommendation and promotion tools that
help connect the right app to the right user; examples include Appaware, Appboy,
Appolicious, Apprupt, Appsfire, FrenzApp, Flurry, Explorapp and Chorus. However,
such tools are still a long way from becoming mainstream, with promotional platforms
like Flurry’s App Circle being used by less than 4% of our respondents.
Moreover, not all platforms are born with equal revenue potential. Our research
revealed large discrepancies across platforms in terms of the revenues applications are
bringing to developers.
iOS topped the chart, making 3.3 times more money per app than Symbian developers
followed by Java ME (2.7x) and BlackBerry (2.4x). Java should come as no surprise
here, given it is still the primary platform for developing games on feature phones
which often have higher price points than smartphone apps. Android (1.7x), mobile web
(1.6x) were the weakest performing platforms in terms of revenue per app and only
ahead of Symbian (1.0). The important insight here is that large device sales do not
translate into higher app monetisation for developers, as the case for Symbian shows.
Note that we excluded developers making more than $100K per app, and those who did
not know or could not indicate revenues.
There are more complexities around monetisation. For example, while Java ME offers
The previous graph is quite telling. The good news? One in three developers see the
level of revenues they expected. The bad news? On average, there are five times more
developers who are dissatisfied with their mobile application revenues than there are
satisfied developers. The platforms do add some colour to the picture; iOS developers
have more positive impressions than any other platform, whereas Java ME has the
most developers dissatisfied with revenues, since feature phone Java games downloads
are in decline.
Besides the revenues individual developers are seeing, how are revenues distributed
across app categories? Games dominate all other application categories bringing in a
total of 45% of revenues from paid downloads and in-app purchases in the Apple iOS
App Store in April 2011, according to analytics firm App Annie. The revenue breakdown
by category is based on a bottom-up statistical model drawn upon more than 40,000
apps, which use the App Annie sales analytics service.
For developers making money directly, the top revenue model is pay-per-download,
followed by advertising and freemium (free download, then pay to upgrade). Despite
the hype surrounding newer revenue models, we found that subscriptions and in-app
The distribution of revenue models varies widely by platform. Among mobile web
developers, advertising was the most popular model, with many Android developers
also using this model. Pay-per-download was most popular among iOS developers.
App stores have radically enabled new revenue models. For example, use of pay-per-
download is three times higher for developers using an app store, as opposed to
developers who primarily distribute apps through their own website. Use of advertising
and in-app purchase is almost double for apps distributed via an app store.
As the innovation in mobile has shifted to software, so network operators have been
keen to re-establish themselves and take part in software-led innovation. As such, the
leading operators in Western, smartphone-populated markets – including Telefonica,
Vodafone, Orange, Telenor, AT&T and Verizon – have launched developer innovation
programs and network API platforms. Many have also launched their own app stores.
The Wholesale Applications Community (WAC) is essentially an operator-centric
initiative to help operators compete against Apple and Google, who dominate the
smartphone innovation and value chain. The WAC aims to help operators develop a
solution that encompasses an application runtime, app stores and APIs.
Traditionally, application developers have been cold and uncertain as to the role the
operators can play in a software world. While the majority of developers agree that the
role of operators is to delivery data access and voice, there is no consensus on the role
of operators in software. For example, developers don’t agree on whether operators
should be a payment gateway, an API platform, build the best mobile services, or just
However, marketing efforts on behalf of operators have been paying off. There is now
much more awareness amongst developers that the role of operators should be to offer
a platform of network APIs.
We are also now seeing important regional differences in how developers perceive
operators. For example in Asia, many more developers (14% above the global average)
see operators as a payment gateway or API platform, and not just a data or voice pipe.
In Europe and North America, developers are showing signs of discontent with
operator-owned services, with many more developers (20% above the global average)
suggesting that the role of operators is to deliver data and voice, and not to own services
or to offer a supermarket-like proposition.
Yet, operators still have a lot of ground to cover in capturing developer mindshare.
In other words, operators need to change their business model from a “developer pays”
model to a “developer gets paid” model. If developers create apps that use telco APIs,
they drive traffic or usage, which benefits both the user and the telco. It’s not the
developer that needs to pay – it’s the user. What needs to happen is a change in what
we call “business model polarity”.
In the “developer gets paid” model, a single API allows the user to pay for both outgoing
and return SMSs in one shot, and the developer gets to use the API for free and even get
a revenue share kick-back in return. The developer can focus on building a viral service,
and won’t have to worry about success costs.
Before we conjure any images of Big Brother here, let’s view this customer intelligence
in a different light. Namely, as helping users find the right applications. We
fundamentally believe that operators can leverage the mountain of customer
intelligence to support developers in solving the discovery problem - which still plagues
the app economy - by helping users find apps relevant to their location, social circle,
and buying habits. In other words, operators can become the best matchmakers
between developers and users, between the right app and the right user.
Android and Qt are by far the easiest platforms to learn, with respondents requiring an
average of under six months to master. In contrast, Java ME and Symbian are the
hardest platforms to get to grips with, taking over 10 months to master.
Contrary to popular perception, mobile web isn’t such an easy platform to learn,
ranking sixth in terms of learning curve. This is not due to the complexity of any one
language like HTML or JavaScript, but due to the need for web developers to learn a
complex stack of languages and technology frameworks across client and server
environments, in addition to having to battle with the challenges of cross-browser
portability.
The next chart illustrates the relative learning curve per platform, and how not all
platforms are born equal.
In contrast, our research indicates that Android developers must create six versions of
their apps on average, which is on par with mobile web apps.
The stark difference in fragmentation across Apple and Android devices is also evident
amongst the different platform versions in the installed base of devices. According to
Google data released on May 2011, 25% of active Android handsets run on platform
versions more than 18 months out of date. Meanwhile, according to app analytics firm
Localytics, only 20% of existing Apple 3GS devices had not yet been upgraded, just two
months after the introduction of iOS4. In other words, Apple devices have the youngest
runtime age in the mobile industry.
The intensity of Android fragmentation has been widely discussed, and is often cited as
the biggest sore point for the platform. We analyse Android fragmentation into five
dimensions:
2. Complex incentives: Unlike Apple, Google doesn’t make its own hardware –
meaning Android phone OEMs lack commercial incentive to keep updating handsets
that have already been sold. Instead, they have an incentive to push users to shorten
their device replacement cycles. The commercial update process is especially entangled
when handsets have been produced for a particular mobile operator. Note that Google
recently unveiled a compliance program that will force handset manufacturers to
update their platform for the first 18 months since handset launch.
5. Codebase forking. China Mobile’s Ophone and China Unicom’s Wophone are
‘forked’ (branched) versions of Android for the China market. Other forks include
Cyanogen and MiuiAndroid, which are unofficial, customised versions of Android
targeted at tech enthusiasts.
Our research confirmed that, contrary to popular perception, Android is still relatively
unfragmented. Rather, it is Java and Symbian that are amongst the most problematic
platforms in terms of fragmentation, with developers needing to create on average
about twice the number of app versions for these platforms, compared to Android.
Moreover, BlackBerry – alongside Java ME – is one of the platforms with the greatest
amount of fragmentation. This should come as no surprise, given the diversity across
BlackBerry device capabilities, input mechanisms and screen resolutions. As of March
2011, close to 40% of installed base of BlackBerry devices run versions of the OS that
are older than version 5. Note that only devices running version 5 and above are
capable to support the BlackBerry App World application store.
Localisation is not yet a mainstream issue: nearly 70% of our respondents either have
not tried localizing their apps or have never had any issues with it. But localisation will
soon become a fundamental issue for mobile developers, as it becomes easier to
distribute apps globally and to develop regionally-sensitive apps and content like news,
Overall, the biggest challenge, as reported by one in three developers who address
multiple regions, is that localisation is a completely manual process. The other two
major challenges reported are the cost of localisation and the complexity of managing
language packs. Yet, neither platform vendors nor OEMs have developed frameworks
that allow developers to easily adapt their applications to different languages. We
should note that there are frameworks that facilitate crowd-sourced translation of
software and can be used to localise mobile applications as well – for example
Transifex. This presents an opportunity for mobile platform vendors who want to
differentiate with developers targeting regional markets outside North America.
What’s still not certain is the shape that the app localisation market will take. There are
two prevailing scenarios:
- Superficial: in this scenario, app localisation will resemble the movie business where
only the subtitles are localised.
- Pervasive: in this scenario, localisation will result in pervasive changes across the
application, adapting to region-specific traditions, culture, holidays, and currencies, for
example adapting a shoot-’em-up game to sport a Kalashnikov in Russian markets and
a T3 in Germany.
For now, the future is headed towards pervasive localisation. Already, startups have
sprung up that specialise in localising social games features – from virtual goods to the
entire game – to local markets. These startups include Mentez, which specialises in
localisation for Latin America regions, 6waves, for Asian audiences, and 101XP, for the
Eastern European market.
Developer preferences for marketing and tech support in this year’s Developer
Economics research were very mixed. Approximately one in four developers would be
willing to pay for premium app store placement. Access to device prototypes was
equally important, as was access to hidden APIs. Another important finding was the
decline of interest in operator portals; developers would be twice as willing to pay for
preloading on OEM devices, compared to being listed on operator portals.
We asked developers which cloud APIs they are using, and which they plan on using.
We found that iOS, Android and mobile web developers are the most active users of
cloud APIs, while BlackBerry and Java developers were late adopters of the ‘cloud’.
Map APIs are the most common cloud APIs currently used by developers, as testified by
over 40% of our respondents, followed by social networking and search APIs. The most
active users – iOS developers – use map and social networking APIs in their majority
(55% of respondents).
Besides continuing use of maps, social and search functionality, the most important
cloud APIs developers are planning to use are billing (one in three respondents),
followed by carrier billing and advert management APIs. Multi-player game APIs are
also favoured, with one in five respondents planning to use them in the future.
Newer platforms, like iOS, suffer from different go-to-market issues. Some 38% of
respondents who develop primarily on iOS, report that application approval has
‘unwritten rules’ in the App Store, while over 35% of them find that approval takes too
long.
Android developers are the most indifferent to certification challenges, due to Google’s
‘hands-off’ approach to application approval. Nearly 40% of respondents state they
have no issues, while another 20% state they don't need to certify their apps. Mobile
web is perhaps the easiest platform with regards to certification, since there are (as yet)
no formal requirements for submitting widgets or other web applications.
4. Brands Go Mobile
Brands, from The Times and Burberry, to Gap and BMW, across every single industry
vertical (FMCGs, music, retail, publishing and entertainment), from New York to Seoul,
are jumping on the app express train. Some brands are building their own development
teams to better control and integrate their apps into their core products. A few are even
turning mobile apps into new profit-making business entities.
To understand how brands are going mobile, we looked at over 50 leading international
and regional brands, through 20 one-to-one interviews with digital agencies, media,
retail and Internet companies across five continents.
The innovation is not just coming from the entrepreneurial developers, who create the
bulk of nearly one billion apps out there. To date, tens of thousands of companies have
“gone mobile,” from physical and online retailers (Walmart, Amazon) to music
companies (Sony), international sports teams (Chelsea FC), newspapers (The
Guardian), transport institutions (TFL), social networks (Facebook) and car
manufacturers (BMW). In going mobile, each has extended the reach of their brand,
while at the same time injecting much-needed funding into the app economy.
Mobile is global. Mobile applications and services are no longer being limited to one
specific country - for example companies that offer a global Internet service provide
global access to their app.
The Newbies
In their first steps in going mobile, most companies think of an app as a way to
‘advertise’ whatever product or service they are providing. Most early apps are
developed for the iPhone, and do not do much more than promote the physical or
digital service the brand is offering. In many cases, it’s the digital agency that
proactively pitches a mobile app as part of an existing digital marketing budget. In
other cases, it’s the CEO who storms into the marketing manager’s office, enquiring
why the company does not have a mobile app yet, when his daughter’s iPhone is
crammed with apps.
During this Newbie life stage, all that brands want to do is experiment and see what is
possible on this new digital medium. Efforts are focused on providing apps that extend
the brand’s PR and advertising efforts. In the more mature cases, apps are extended to
include some kind of service (a ‘brand butler’), but the main objective remains that of
increasing brand awareness.
Time-wise, the initial roll-out takes about three months, with up to one year in some
instances.
As their mobile strategy matures, brands aim toward higher levels of integration with
their digital and, in some cases, their corporate strategy.
The Street-Smarts
Once the first mobile apps are out in the field, senior executives start to demand much
more from the channel. The key question for Street-Smart brands becomes, “How can
we use this mobile channel to provide a better service?” Or, “How can we help
customers make their life easier?” In most cases, the core application is provided for
free, so as to ensure reach.
In the initial stages of any organisation’s foray in mobile apps the tendency has been to
subcontract the app development to a mobile software house or their digital agency.
Now that demand is scaling Street Smarts are bringing more of the design and
development in-house, only outsourcing basic coding functionalities to freelance
developers. The objective behind this is twofold: to provide better integration with the
current digital or overall business strategy, and as importantly, to have tighter control
on cost, process time and overall quality.
Platform-wise, Street Smarts extend their apps to Android handsets, and increasingly,
to those platforms featuring web browsers. Global brands integrate mobile offerings
within their overall advertising strategy, for example viewing apps as an advertising
channel, avenue for community interaction, or even a channel for cross-selling users
from one product to the next.
The Connoisseurs
Connoisseurs are the “experts”, the brands with a successful digital business, whose
move into mobile has been integrated within their overall strategy early on, as another
touch-point. Most verticals have not made it to Connoisseur status yet, except for
games and media companies. Games are one of the most mature verticals, with mobile-
only versions of traditional games and social games being developed for mobile for
more than five years. In turn, media companies have recently become aware that
mobile is one of their top priorities, and that all mobile initiatives must be driven by
clear business objectives. As an example, mobile apps within media companies are
increasingly driven by editorial strategy.
Mobilisation drivers
What drives brands into mobile? There are several reasons brands are using to extend
their digital strategies into mobile:
Most companies across industry “As an app agency for brands, 100%
verticals have focused their mobile of our inbound calls are about
initiatives on the B2C market. Interest iPhone, 60%-70% of these also
in B2B, and more specifically, internal & request Android. iPad is the third
operational efficiency apps, is only platform, with about 50% of calls.”
recently gaining momentum.
Alex Trommen
CEO
In the B2C market, the main reasoning AppsFactory.de
for developing apps focuses on
extending above and below the line PR
and advertising efforts and increasing
brand awareness and accessibility. Brands are commissioning apps to support a
product launch or even create a ‘brand butler’ Most media companies provide a mix of
infotainment services, such as real time football results from Sky Sports. We are also
seeing a rise in branded utility apps, helping a user find the nearest bike shop or store
the details of their loyalty cards. The end goal is usually to aid the user carry into mobile
what they do on other digital or physical channels.
It gets more complex; a platform choice is not just about Apple vs. Android, but a
sophisticated trade-off between functionality, user experience, reaching the right
customer demographic and the cost of rollout.
Beside these dimensions, companies need to consider demographics (who are Apple or
Android users and how do they use apps?), functionality requirements (can we
implement this or that feature?), as well as the cost of rollout (how easy is it to produce
the app and maintain it?) and of course the business model (how does it make money?).
No doubt most brands are finding it very complex to decide which platforms to focus
on.
Apple’s and Google’s mega-marketing campaigns can convince a fair share of marketing
managers that their respective platforms are all that’s needed. After all, most marketing
managers are new to mobile, and underestimate the complexities of this new medium
and the many trade-offs it involves.
Platform priorities are mixed, but the core challenge is common – market penetration
and reach across the brand’s customer base. In our discussions with executives
responsible for digital strategies, we found that hardly any organisation tends to
develop across all platforms.
HTML is already the platform of choice for companies developing B2B (business to
business) apps, i.e. applications paid by the corporate IT manager or CIO - an estimated
40% of which are developed by system integrators. These are point solutions like
applications that connect to Exchange, SAP, sales force and enterprise resource
planning applications to be used by company executives. The default platform for B2B
apps is HTML, not just for deployment on mobile web browsers, but also by converting
HTML and JavaScript into native iPhone and Android apps using tools such as
Appcelerator, PhoneGap, RhoMobile, Sencha and The M Project.
But in storming into mobile, digital strategists need to heed best practices from
companies that have established successful mobile apps.
As always, the mobile app economy is continually evolving – and often in surprising
ways. The platforms race continues in twists and turns, new business models spring up,
and apps take retailing into new levels of sophistication. Apps stand to power the fast
moving digital goods world.
We ‘ll keep watching the app economy closely. You should, too.