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    Answer Keys of Quiz 02

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    1) The document contains the answers to two quiz questions. 2) The first question calculates the probability that a randomly selected scientific review was submitted in LaTeX format (66%) and the posterior probabilities it was short, medium, or long if submitted in LaTeX. 3) The second question calculates the probability that at least 10 out of 11 randomly selected flashlights will work (70.8%), given the probability batteries have an acceptable voltage.

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    Answer Keys of Quiz 02

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    1) The document contains the answers to two quiz questions. 2) The first question calculates the probability that a randomly selected scientific review was submitted in LaTeX format (66%) and the posterior probabilities it was short, medium, or long if submitted in LaTeX. 3) The second question calculates the probability that at least 10 out of 11 randomly selected flashlights will work (70.8%), given the probability batteries have an acceptable voltage.

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    1) The document contains the answers to two quiz questions. 2) The first question calculates the probability that a randomly selected scientific review was submitted in LaTeX format (66%) and the posterior probabilities it was short, medium, or long if submitted in LaTeX. 3) The second question calculates the probability that at least 10 out of 11 randomly selected flashlights will work (70.8%), given the probability batteries have an acceptable voltage.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    19 views2 pages

    Answer Keys of Quiz 02

    Uploaded by

    asdsdsafsafdfsd
    1) The document contains the answers to two quiz questions. 2) The first question calculates the probability that a randomly selected scientific review was submitted in LaTeX format (66%) and the posterior probabilities it was short, medium, or long if submitted in LaTeX. 3) The second question calculates the probability that at least 10 out of 11 randomly selected flashlights will work (70.8%), given the probability batteries have an acceptable voltage.

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    Answer Keys of Quiz 02

    Q1. (CLO-1)
    The Reviews editor for a certain scientific journal decides whether the review for any particular
    book should be short (1–2 pages), medium (3–4 pages), or long (5–6 pages). Data on recent
    reviews indicates that 10% of them are short, 30% are medium, and the other 60% are long.
    Reviews are submitted in either Word or LaTeX. For short reviews, 30% are in LaTeX, whereas
    50% of medium reviews are in LaTeX and 80% of long reviews are in LaTeX. Suppose a recent
    review is randomly selected.
    a) What is the probability that the selected review was submitted in LaTeX format?
    (05 points)
    b) If the selected review was submitted in LaTeX format, what are the posterior probabilities of it
    being short, medium, or long?
    (05 points)
    Answer:
    Let A1, A2 and A3 be the events for long, medium, and short reviews, respectively. Then,
    P(A1) = 0.6, P(A2) = 0.30 and P(A3) = 0.1. And let T be the event that the review is in the LaTeX
    format, so,
    P(T/A1) = 0.8, P(T/A2) = 0.5 and P(T/A3) = 0.3

    a) By law of Total Probability:

    P(T) = P(T/A1)P(A1) + P(T/A2)P(A2) + P(T/A3)P(A3)


    Putting values, we got:

    P(T) = 0.8(0.6) + 0.5(0.3) + 0.3(0.1)

    P(T ) = 0.66

    Hence, the probability that the selected review was submitted in LaTeX format is 0.66.

    b)
    Now, if the selected review was submitted in LaTeX format, the posterior probabilities of it being
    long is:

    P(A1/T) = P(A1ՈT)/P(T) = [P(T/A1)P(A1)]/P(T) = [0.8(0.6)]/0.66 = 0.7272

    And, if the selected review was submitted in LaTeX format, the posterior probabilities of it being
    medium is:

    P(A2/T) = P(A2ՈT)/P(T) = [P(T/A2)P(A2)]/P(T) = [0.5(0.3)]/0.66 = 0.2272


    And at last, if the selected review was submitted in LaTeX format, the posterior probabilities of it
    being short is:

    P(A3/T) = P(A3ՈT)/P(T) = [P(T/A3)P(A3)]/P(T) = [0.3(0.1)]/0.66 = 0.04545

    Q2. (CLO-2)
    Certain type of flashlight requires two type-D batteries, and the flashlight will work only if both
    its batteries have acceptable voltages. Suppose that 95% of all batteries from a certain supplier
    have acceptable voltages, and batteries voltage levels are independent. Among eleven randomly
    selected flashlights, what is the probability that at least ten will work?
    (10 points)

    Answer:
    Let X be the number of flashlights that work, and let A be the event that a battery has an
    acceptable voltage. Then, the probability of the flashlight works will be the probability that both
    the batteries work. As batteries voltage levels are independent. So,
    Probability that flashlight works = probability that both batteries work = P(A).P(A) = 0.95(0.95)
    Probability that flashlight works = 0.9025
    Which means probability of success, p = 0.9025
    According to the statement of the question, we have, n = 11.
    Thus, this shows that X is a binomial r.v i.e. X ~ Bin(11, 0.9025).
    Our required result is P(X ≥ 10), this means,
    P(X≥10) = b(10; 11, 0.9025) + b(11; 11, 0.9025)

    11 (0.9025)10 (1 11
    P(X ≥ 10) = ( ) − 0.9025)11−10 + ( ) (0.9025)11 (1 − 0.9025)11−11
    10 11

    P(X ≥ 10) = 0.3845 + 0.3235

    P(X ≥ 10) = 0.708


    Thus, among eleven randomly selected flashlights, the probability that at least ten will work is
    0.708
    THE END

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