[Document title]

Table of Contents

Global Ore Production of Chromium Ore..................................................................................................... 3

All about Chromium Ore.......................................................................................................................... 3
Sources of chromite................................................................................................................................. 3
WORLD CHROMITE ORE SCENARIO............................................................................................................ 4
INDIAN CHROMITE ORE SCENARIO............................................................................................................ 4
FUTURE OUTLOOK OF CHROMITE PRODUCTION.....................................................................................5
High carbon ferrochrome............................................................................................................................. 6
Categories of specifications in High carbon ferrochrome.........................................................................7
High carbon ferrochrome production of key countries............................................................................7
Stainless steel.............................................................................................................................................. 8
A Short Overview of Stainless Steel and Its Production...........................................................................8
Sensitivity Analysis............................................................................................................................... 14
Production and forecasting of stainless steel by key countries................................................................16
Substitution............................................................................................................................................ 16
Ferrochrome industry................................................................................................................................. 17
Type Outlook......................................................................................................................................... 17
Grade Outlook....................................................................................................................................... 18
Application Outlook............................................................................................................................... 18
Regional Outlook................................................................................................................................... 19
Competitive Landscape.......................................................................................................................... 20
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Global Ore production (Author, 2022)........................................................................................... 5
Figure 2: High carbon ferrochrome production (Author, 2022)....................................................................8
Figure 3: Flow chart for metals used in the production of stainless steel in WORLD6, showing the
additions to the model for making alloyed steel using iron, manganese, chromium and nickel.................10
Figure 4: The scheme applied for producing MnCrNi type of stainless steel, and if the resources are not
efficient, substitute with MnCr stainless steel, where molybdenum and niobium are used to substitute for
nickel......................................................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 5: The general context of industry as a supplier to society and the public as a consumer creating
demand in the model system and an aggregated CLD of the basic market model in WORLD6..................12
Figure 6: Causal loop diagram for the resource extraction dynamics. In the present version of the model, a
fraction of the GDP is used as a proxy for disposable income....................................................................13
Figure 7: settings for the sensitivity analysis. a) The nickel resource and b) stainless steel demand
variations used in the sensitivity analysis................................................................................................... 14
Figure 8: A sensitivity analysis based on nickel resource sizes and demand levels for stainless steel.........15
Figure 9: The stainless-steel supply in kg per person and per year (a) and the amount stainless steel in use
in society as kg per person from the sensitivity simulation (b)...................................................................15
Figure 10: This figure is using the WORLD6 model to explore one possibility on what could happen in the
very long term based on simulation outputs.............................................................................................. 16
Figure 11: Production and forecasting of stainless steel by key countries (Author, 2022)..........................17
Global Ore Production of Chromium Ore

All about Chromium Ore

Chromium is one of the modern industry’s essential elements and important raw material for
the production of special steel and ferrochrome alloys. Around 90% of mined chromite ore is
con-verted into different grades of ferrochrome by the metallurgical industry. Stainless steel
industry consumes about 80% of ferrochrome produced (mainly high-carbon/charge grade).
Chromite varies widely in composition according to the chemical formula (Mg, Fe+2) (Cr,
Al, Fe+3)2O4. Chromium occurs as chromium spinel, a complex mineral containing
magnesium, iron, aluminium and chromium in varying proportions depending upon the
deposit. Iron is replaced by magnesium and similarly chromium by ferric iron and
aluminium. It is this replacement that improves Cr:Fe ratio in chromite. Chromium ore occurs
exclusively in ultramafic igneous rocks. Commercial chromite deposits are found in two
forms stratiform seams and irregular podiform/lenticular deposits. With the richness of silica
and iron, chromite ore deposit can be classified as siliceous type (silica rich) and ferruginous
type (iron rich). Major associated gangue minerals are talc, quartz, hematite, goethite,
limonite, gabbro, serpentine, anorthosite, dunnite, and pyroxenite. Most of the chromite
reserves in the world are concentrated in Africa and Asia followed by Europe, Australia and
Brazil.

Sources of chromite

Chromium ore occurs exclusively in rocks formed by the intrusion and solidification of
molten lava or magma which is very rich in the heavy, iron containing minerals such as
pyroxenes and olivine’s. The chromium spinel is a heavy mineral and it concentrates through
gravity separation from most of the other molten material in the magma during crystallization
from the cooling magma. Commercial chromite deposits are found mainly in two forms
namely stratiform and podiform. Stratiform seams in basin-like intrusions, often multiple
seams through repeated igneous injections. The best-known example of a stratiform deposit is
the Bushveld Igneous Complex of South Africa. This complex contains most of the world’s
chromite reserves. Other stratiform deposits occur in Madagascar and in the Orissa state of
India. The podiform deposits are relatively small in comparison. They are generally richer in
chromium than the stratiform deposits and have higher Cr:Fe ratios. Ore reserves in
Kazakhstan are of the podiform type. Podiform ores were originally highly sought after, as
the best source of metallurgical grade chromite for high-carbon ferrochromium. These ores
also tend to be massive (hard lumpy), as opposed to the softer, more friable ores from the
stratiform deposits. There is a third type of chromite deposit but of very limited commercial
significance. These are the eluvial deposits that have been formed by weathering of chromite-
bearing rock and release of the chromite spinels with subsequent gravity concentration by
flowing water.
WORLD CHROMITE ORE SCENARIO

Figure 1: Global Ore production (Author, 2022)

There are ample Cr Ore deposits worldwide, However, majority of them are possessed by
Africa. The key take-aways from this forecasting are:
 The Global Ore Production is growing at a CAGR (2011-2020) 11.02% and CAGR
(2017-2026) is projected to be 10.90%

 The projected ore production is:

o 2023: 32,774
o 2024: 33,585
o 2025: 34,781
o 2026: 35,425

INDIAN CHROMITE ORE SCENARIO

Chromite deposits occur in several Indian states like Tamil Nadu, Goa, Karnataka,
Maharashtra and Orissa in the form of discontinuous bands, lenses and pockets in different
host rock associations. Though insignificant in the context of world resources, India is
endowed with appreciable quantities of good grade chrome ores. Around 90% of the chromite
resources of India are concentrated in Suchinda valley of Jaipur district and BoulaNuasahi
belt of Orissa state. The Indian deposits are typically characterized as ferruginous and
siliceous type ores. The ores of Suchinda valley are mostly high grade, soft and friable in
nature besides few quantities of hard lumpy ore, formed in separate bands. These are mainly
associated with laterite, altered ultramafic rock, nickeliferous limonite, goethite and talc
serpentine schist. Based on physical characteristics, Orissa chrome ores are broadly classified
as:
 Lumpy and granular: This type of ore is hard, compact, medium to fine grained
 Friable ore: This is soft, powdery in nature, mostly of high grade (Cr2O3> 50%) with
very small gangue minerals and is the bulk constituent of all brown ore horizons in
Sukinda Belt
 Ferruginous ore: Considerable portion of ore bodies in the Suchinda belt and Boula
Nuasahi complex are lateralised giving rise to ferruginous chrome ore where goethite
and to some extent hematite form the gangue minerals

FUTURE OUTLOOK OF CHROMITE PRODUCTION

The current status of chromite production and consumption is on anticipated lines, but the
consumption could increase alarmingly in the coming years and the country may have to
depend on imports even for the domestic needs of chromite. Depletion of reserves is bound to
create a serious problem for the future of the Chromite Industry in the country. An Expert
Committee constituted by the Ministry of Steel, Government of India, in its recommendations
put forth the need for detailed exploration of chromite in all the potential areas in Odisha,
Karnataka and in the ophiolite belt of North-Eastern region with a view to prognosticate
resources to a depth of 500 m in Suchinda belt and estimate resources in all other potential
areas. Addressing concerns in ferrochrome production which is energy - intensive segment is
also essential. Setting up of such plant must strike a cost balance between raw materials and
electrical energy supply. There are other imminent issues like consistent supply of chrome
ore at the right cost, steady power supply and other input materials like low phosphorous met
coke and good market conditions that need redressal in respect of the continuous and
unscrupulous exploitation of chromite.
In coming days, increase in royalty on domestically produced chromite from 10% to 15% by
Government of India is also bound to have its impact on the industry. It will see radical
transformation in the efforts undertaken to meet the challenges. Adherence to stringent
pollution control norms, innovations in the process technology and plant equipment design
would become inevitable for the future of the industry. Besides, environmental concerns
associated with Chromite Industry are too many which would attract considerable attention.
Each and every anthropogenic activity that contributes hexavalent chromium to the
environment should be regulated in such a manner so that the adverse impacts are contained
within reasonable limits. For this, regular monitoring is highly essential by regulatory
authorities to control the contamination caused by Cr.
High carbon ferrochrome

High carbon ferrochrome is one of the most common ferroalloys produced and is almost
exclusively used in the production of stainless steel and high chromium steels. Production
takes place primarily in countries with substantial chromite ore supply. Relatively cheap
electricity and reductants also contribute to the viability of high carbon ferrochrome. The
most common production technology utilized is submerged arc smelting in AC furnaces,
although open arc smelting in DC furnaces is becoming increasingly common. A more
advanced technology route that includes a prereduction step is only utilized at significant
scale by one producer. Production processes have become more energy and metallurgically
efficient by utilizing advanced processes such as prereduction, preheating, agglomeration of
ore, and CO gas utilization.

High carbon ferrochrome does not have a single specification, as the ores in different regions
differ, which impacts on certain components in the alloy (e.g., Cr, Fe, and C). Furthermore,
the smelting process (slag metallurgy or technology route) employed also impacts on
particular components in the alloy (e.g., Si, S). Finally, the type of reductant used will also
impact on particular components (e.g., P). Therefore, rather than a universal standard
specification, producers generally have their own specifications, which depend on their
particular process and set of raw materials. Minor elements in the alloy are not normally
specified, but could attract premiums from particular specialty steel producers.
Categories of specifications in High carbon ferrochrome

There are two broad categories of specifications, which follow the classical distinction
between high carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome.

Sizing specifications are typically in accordance with the client’s requirements, which, in
some cases, depend on the transport and product-charging infrastructure at their facilities. A
lumpy product would typically have a bottom size limit of 6 or 10 mm and top size limit of
50 mm or larger. Material below 6 or 10 mm is classified as fines and normally attracts a
discount. Weight adjustments are made for moisture content.
Granulated material follows the same size pattern, but the size distribution is not determined
by the crushing and screening process but rather by the granulation process. Unlike the cast
product, granulated material is porous and could entrap some moisture, which could be
viewed as being a process risk for the client. Granulated material generally also has a lower
bulk density.
High carbon ferrochrome is historically primarily produced in submerged arc AC furnaces,
utilizing a number of process routes as shown in the next section. For obvious cost reasons
these production facilities are primarily in countries with sufficient resources of chromite ore,
but other factors, such as relatively cheap electricity, may also facilitate production in other
countries

High carbon ferrochrome production of key countries

 Figure 2: High carbon ferrochrome production (Author, 2022)
Key take-aways from the analysis:
 The production of HC FeCr is steady, 11.73 % CAGR (2011-2020) and the CAGR for
2017-2026 is expected to be 11.71 %.

 The projected HC FeCr production are:

o 2023: 15,717
o 2024: 16,131
o 2025: 16,896
o 2026: 17,229

Stainless steel

The world’s most important synthetic metal is stainless steel, an alloy of nickel, chromium,
manganese and other metals that has iron as its main component. We will show that the long-
term production and supply of stainless steel and the metals it is based on can be assessed by
using an integrated systems dynamics model. We have earlier modelled the extraction,
demand and supply dynamics of iron, manganese, chromium and nickel in a separate study
(Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a, b). A separate study was done on available extractable
resources, and this is published separately (Ragnarsdottir et al. 2017).
A Short Overview of Stainless Steel and Its Production

Above given figure shows the approximate global stainless-steel production 1900–2014 in
million ton of metal per year as well as the market price, observed and reconstructed for
1900–2018. If stainless steel is counted as a separate metal for society, then it is the fourth
largest metal in supplied weight, after simple carbon steel, cast iron and aluminium.
In the 1890’s, the German scientist Hans Goldschmidt invented the alumina-thermic process
for producing stainless steel on an industrial scale. Several researchers, in particular the
Frenchman Leon Guillet developed a number of alloys from 1904 to 1911, laying the
foundation for modern stainless steel. Several British scientists (One was Harry Brearly
developing large gun barrels, ending up with a patent for stainless steel cutlery) did similar
developments at the same time. The German industrialist Alfred Krupp (1812–1887) invented
industrial production on a large scale of modern steel and took part in the invention of new
types of alloyed stainless steel, alloyed into toughness, hardness, heat tolerance and finally
stainlessness. Their first stainless patented alloy (1912) was called “Nirosta”, which translates
as “never-rust”. His large factories became key players in two World Wars and made the best
material for modern warfare hardware, such as modern artillery, battleships, tanks, steel
armour, submarines and other armaments beside many peace-time uses (Cutler and Coates
2012; Kennedy 1987; Rosenqvist 1983).

Figure 3: Flow chart for metals used in the production of stainless steel in WORLD6, showing the additions to
the model for making alloyed steel using iron, manganese, chromium and nickel
 Figure 4: The scheme applied for producing MnCrNi type of stainless steel, and if the resources are not
efficient, substitute with MnCr stainless steel, where molybdenum and niobium are used to substitute for
nickel
Figure 5: The general context of industry as a supplier to society and the public as a consumer creating
demand in the model system and an aggregated CLD of the basic market model in WORLD6
Figure 6: Causal loop diagram for the resource extraction dynamics. In the present version of the model, a
fraction of the GDP is used as a proxy for disposable income
Figure 7: settings for the sensitivity analysis. a) The nickel resource and b) stainless steel demand variations
used in the sensitivity analysis

Figure 8: A sensitivity analysis based on nickel resource sizes and demand levels for stainless steel
 a) Effect on the demand after modification by price the amount MnCrNi stainless steel
produced,
b) Stainless steel actually produced
c) effect on the market supply of stainless steel
d) the degree of recycling as a fraction of supply
e) the market price in $ per ton stainless steel and
f) the cumulative amount stainless steel produce

Figure 9: The stainless-steel supply in kg per person and per year (a) and the amount stainless steel in use in
society as kg per person from the sensitivity simulation (b)

Sensitivity Analysis

Variations in Stainless Steel Demand and Nickel Resource Size

A sensitivity analysis was performed based on many runs with the model and many different
scenarios tested. We show the effect of varying nickel extractable resource sizes (URR) and
different levels of stainless-steel demand after 2020. All runs have the same demand as in the
business-as-usual scenario. For stainless steel, it appears that the limiting factor is nickel
availability, and any potential manganese, chromium and iron shortages are redundant to that.
To untangle the effect of nickel resource, look at the outputs before 2030, most of that
variation is due to difference in resource size. After 2050, the effect of demand variation is
more pronounced. The upper line is the line for the largest nickel resource, and then, it can be
seen how that fans out as different demands kick in. The middle line before 2020 is the
middle resource; this also fans out caused by different demands after 2030. The lowest line is
the lowest resource; this fans out because of the different demands coming in after 2020. For
the demand after price modification both resource variation and demand based on need
variation have an effect on the demand after price feedback. But in terms of stainless steel
actually produced, there is less freedom for variation. That small variation, plus the caused
variation in recycling which is driven by price increases results in variations in actual supply
to the market. Most of that variation is driven by the variation in the demand. To understand
the diagrams, we need to have the causal loop diagrams for the subsystem in our minds
Other variations were tried, but most of these gave little change in the general trends, and are
not worth showing. The reasons for this are twofold. Some of the variations are overruled by
other variations (Nickel limitations occur before chromium limitations, thus varying
chromium demand or resource did not give and difference. And some parameters varied were
simply not very important. Because of all the feedbacks in the system, especially through the
economic modules, the system is compensating for some of the variations made. Thus, a
sensitivity analysis using only parameter variations will only test a part of the sensitivity. It
was considered to be beyond the scope of these study to investigate the sensitivity of the
results with respect to the feedback structure of the integrated WORLD6 model system. The
stainless-steel supply to society in kg stainless steel per person per year is showing the
provision of service from stainless steel per person. This is an indicator for utility in society.
Increasing the stainless-steel demand makes the stainless steel production rate at the peak
higher, and the time of the stainless steel production maximum comes earlier. The stainless-
steel stocks in use will reach a higher level with increased demand. Increasing the nickel
resource make the stainless-steel production rate decline come later, and the decline in
stainless steel stocks in use come later. Increasing the extractable resource extends the supply
curve in time

Figure 10: This figure is using the WORLD6 model to explore one possibility on what could happen in the
very long term based on simulation outputs
a) the amount of stainless steel in use in society as kg per person,
b) the stainless-steel supply in kg per person and per year,
c) the amount in use in society as kg per person for nickel, manganese and chromium
and
d) the supply in kg per person and per year for nickel, manganese and chromium
Production and forecasting of stainless steel by key countries

Figure 11: Production and forecasting of stainless steel by key countries (Author, 2022)
Key takeaways from the analysis:
 Stainless steel Production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.35 percent from 2011
to 2020, and 12.10 percent from 2017 to 2026.

 The projected SS production are:

o 2023: 64,782
o 2024: 67,311
o 2025: 69,659
o 2026: 71,522

Substitution

Assuming the GDP growth profiles and mining costs in the model are accurate for the future,
the results imply that nickel production will start to decline in 2050, after peaking at about 68
million to per year (Sverdrup et al. 2018a, b, c). The missing amount of MnCrNi type of
stainless steel can be replaced by a simpler chromium–manganese stainless steel alloy,
enhanced with more molybdenum and niobium. The total supply of molybdenum is 310,000
ton per year (2018), vanadium is 89,000 ton per year (2018) niobium is 85,000 ton per year
(2018) or cobalt is 90,000 ton per year (2018); they are all far too small to act as proper
volume substitutes for nickel (2,300,000 ton per year in 2018), even if less content is used in
new types of stainless steels. The sum of the production rates for molybdenum, vanadium,
niobium and cobalt is about 465,000 ton per year. Substitution of stainless steel for alloys
based on these metals is only possible on a small scale. The stock-in-use of stainless steel in
society will reach a maximum in 2085 and then slowly decline. we have explained the
difference between soft scarcity and hard scarcity that can be seen to be predicted for
stainless steel. Soft scarcity from 2150, and hard scarcity from 2180. Substitution of high-
grade stainless steel with low grade takes stainless steel place from 2140. The development of
the ore grades over time for manganese, chromium, iron and nickel is shown. The market
price for manganese, chromium, iron and nickel all rise during the period. The increase in
nickel price and energy price is the main reason why the price goes up for stainless steel. The
prices for manganese and chromium will be increasing, but they are not at high prices to
begin with and contribute less to the price of stainless steel.

Ferrochrome industry

The global Ferrochrome Market is forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.3% in terms of value,
from USD 17.48 billion in 2019 to reach USD 24.57 billion by 2027. The significant factor
driving the market growth is the rise in stainless-steel production across the globe. The
economics of the stainless-steel production plays a significant role in defining ferrochrome
demand. The demand in the Asia Pacific region is fueled primarily by growing stainless-steel
demand in India and China. Ferrochrome is commonly used in the manufacture of stainless-
steel since it is rust-resistant and has an attractive look. Growing production activities and
increasing international investment are among the key drivers of the stainless-steel sector.
Foreign investments help fuel business development, such as manufacturing, heavy
equipment, consumer goods, and automotive.
Production of ferrochrome is a highly intensive process in terms of electrical energy
consumption. One ton of the product's production requires estimated power usage of 4,500
kWh. The latest manufacturing process, which is being used internationally, includes
reducing chromite carbothermic smelting in SAF.
Type Outlook

Based on type, the ferrochrome market is bifurcated into high carbon, medium carbon, and
low carbon. The high carbon ferrochrome held the market with a share of 78.9% in 2019. The
main factor leading to high carbon ferrochrome’s market dominance is its lower cost and easy
availability than other goods and a large-scale consumption by stainless-steel manufacturers.
In terms of sales, low carbon ferrochrome is expected to experience a CAGR of 3.3%. The
low carbon ferrochrome finds usage in carbon & low alloy steels, stainless steel, and tool
steels.
Grade Outlook

The 200 series held a 10.2% share in 2019 and is likely to grow at a significant rate in the
forecast period. It is also deemed cost-effective as nickel, partly substituted by nitrogen and
manganese. 200 series yield output is 40.0% greater than 300 series, which consists of about
6.0% - 20.0% nickel, and 18.0% - 30.0% chromium. The product's popularity is attributed to
its essential features of high-temperature tolerance and excellent corrosion resistance,
commonly used in the heavy industry and the automotive field.
The 400 series is witnessing growing usage in compressor shrouds, pump pins, valve screws,
cutlery, bolts, pistons, and machine parts because it includes high carbon content that gives a
martensitic crystalline structure and is therefore ideal for applications requiring high power,
heat resistance, and mild corrosion. Duplex series is also growing at a high rate due to its
characteristics, including high resilience, pressure resistance, corrosion cracking, and
compact. It is used in various other applications, such as tanks for brewing, structures for the
swimming pool, and tank water. The increase in demand from these above-described
applications was anticipated to boost demand for stainless-steel.

Application Outlook

Stainless-steel dominated the market with a share of 77.2% in 2019. FeCr is used to improve
cosmetic appearance and reduce oxidation. As of 2019, there was no other substitute for
ferrochrome in the stainless-steel application for the purposes mentioned above. As a
consequence, demand for a commodity in the coming years is projected to remain high.
Carbon & low iron, tooling, and high-strength steels are often applied to ferrochrome to
deliver added hardness, durability, wear resistance. Alloy steels are used, especially in the
building & manufacturing sectors.
Regional Outlook

The Asia Pacific dominated the market in 2019, owing to the region's considerable
production of stainless-steel. According to ISSF estimates, in 2018, Asia produced over
68.0% of stainless steel with China occupying 52.6% share of worldwide production. Further,
India is another potential market for FeCr, owing to the rapid growth in the nation’s stainless-
steel output.
Europe, led by Germany & France, is expected to experience a CAGR of 3.6% in the forecast
period. Consequently, there is substantial domestic development of stainless-steel, since
stainless-steel manufactures a range of car parts. Additionally, the recent pattern suggests
protectionist policies that the government has placed in motion to raise domestic steel
production. It is a favorable development for the FeCr market because it would undoubtedly
contribute to higher commodity demand.
In North America, compared to Canada and Mexico, the U.S. is a substantial ferrochrome
market. Owing to the ongoing US-China trade war, declining imports of stainless-steel are
projected to improve stainless-steel demand in the U.S. Nevertheless, can stainless-steel
prices due to higher domestic producers\' market will adversely impact their production and
counter its production. The instability is likely to affect the country\'s ferrochrome industry
dynamics. The Central & South America demand is powered primarily by growing specialty
and stainless-steel production in Brazil.
Competitive Landscape

Samancore Chrome Limited, Glencore, ERG, Xinganglian Metallurgy Group, Jindal

Stainless, IMFA, and Facor have been profiled in the report. They are the major
manufacturers of the product.