Example 7: Annotated student work

IB Environmental Systems and Societies

IA Task
Word Count: 2247
Identifying the Contest
Research Question:
What impact does the implementation of "Hoy No Circula" have on levels of CO, S02. PM10, NO2
and Ozone in Mexico City over time? A clear research question that is linked to context and
environmental issue.
Hypothesis-
If the Implementation of "Hoy No Cireula" is effective then, pollution levels for CO, S02, PM10,
NO2 and Ozone will decrease in Mexico City over time because there will be less % of cars
circulating.

Mexico City is one of the largest metropolis in the world, and has struggled with air pollution
for the past decades. According to Mexico City's air pollution agency, 37.4 % of air pollution is
caused by cars The fact that the city is located in a valley, trapping the pollution inside makes
the problem worst.
In order to fight the ever increasing pollution, Mexico City's government implemented
"Hoy No Circula” in 1989 (Mario Molina) which translates to "Today [your car] does not
circulate" (abbreviated to HNC). This is a law stating that all cars older than 6 years of age could
not be driven once per week. In 2011, to further combat air pollution, the government decided
to discard the 6 year rule, opting for a harsher one: Cars that exceed a I% CO volume could not
be driven once a week. Context for environmental issue given. A clear statement of
the environmental issue.
This lab focuses on illustrating the relation between "HNC" and five air pollutants (CO,
NO2, Ozone, PM10, and S02) to see if the legislation was successful. The pollutants were chosen
because these are the ones produced mostly by cars. These 5 variables help tighten the scope.
So there can be a closer correlation between air quality and cars.
By finding the trend of pollutants before and after the law, one can tell if this has had any effect
on mitigating pollutants. The lab will also seek to see if there is a correlation between the
number of cars that were kept off the streets because of "HNC" and pollution levels. Link to research question

It is important that we measure the success of this law because it can help the lives of
millions of Mexicans. These pollutant levels directly affect the health of people living in the city.
According to Mario Molina Center. "long-term exposure shows an increase between 6 and 17%
in all-cause mortality for the entire population”. Measuring the success of the program matters
because, if it's not working, the government must look for other solutions in order to limit the

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health hazard. If this project is successful, then it can be replicated in cities that suffer from
similar cases. Justification for the research question as a link to
environmental issue.

Illustration 1: Effects of Pollution on Human Health (Translated from

http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx, 2014 air quality report)

Planning
The time range (1986-2015) is to see a relationship of contaminants before and after "HNC", as
well as looking for a relationship between the number of cars that were not driven that year
and the pollution level, and the average percent change. The parameters of the variables are mentioned.

Procedure:
1) Obtain the levels of pollution for CO, S02, PM10, NO2 and Ozone from 1986-2015.
(aire.cdmx.gob) The choice of the data source needs to be mentioned in a
sampling strategy.
2) Calculate percent difference yearly from each pollutant. (equation, explanation below)
3) Find the average of percent difference for each pollutant before and after HNC (explained
below)
4) Obtain the number of cars that circulated yearly in Mexico City (INEGI) Justification of the reliability and validity of this
secondary data source is required.
5) Obtain the number of cars that did not circulate once a year in Mexico City due to "HNC"
(INEGI.)
6) Find the average of cars that did not circulate per year by dividing the number of cars that
did not circulate in that year by the total number of cars.

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7) Make a chart with the data from steps 4-6. Make sure that the data used begins in 1986 up
to 2015. (one column per step)
8) Create a bar graph from data found in step 3. Compare percent difference average before
and after the law.
9) Create a scatter plot comparing levels of one pollutant with the percentage number of cars
that did not circulate. X axis the the % of cars for that given year, and the y axis will be
the pollution level for that same year. (data found in steps 1 and 6)
10) Make the same scatter plot for the 4 other pollutants
11) Add straight line of best fit (if possible) for the graphs made in steps 9, 10, to see if there
is a correlation between the percentage of cars and the pollution levels.
*No risk or ethical considerations apply- Justifications for procedure listed below. The student should have mentioned the reliability and
validity of the secondary data sources.
Variables Table
Named Variable Units Equipment or Procedure for
measurement/
control

Independent HNC implementation- Years relative to number of Published data

Number of cars that do not cars- percentage
circulate because of this. Derive percentage of cars
that did not circulate (given
below)

Dependent Pollutant level of CO = PPM Published data.

CO, NO2, Ozone, PM10, SO2 NO2, Ozone, SO2 = PPB
PM10= yg m3

Control Variable Table The justifications here are brief.

What is being controlled? Why is it being controlled? How is it being controlled?

Type of Pollutant To focus on pollutants caused by cars, By only using data from the five
as "HNC" attempts to mitigate these. pollutants.
lf this included other pollutants, they
would have no relationship to the
law.

Location- Mexico City To focus only on the pollution levels Only using published data
of Mexico City. As HNC was made in from Mexico City
Mexico City, the pollutant levels used
must be from this area only to stay
relevant.

Years (1986-2015) To compare the pollution levels Only use published data from these
before and after the program was years.
implemented, see if there is any
correlation between the initiation of
this program and the decrease of
pollutants.

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Results, analysis and conclusion

Table 1: Number of Cars and Pollutant Levels through the years
*No uncertainties were given

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Data Processing
Percent Difference, Justification:
Equation: (new-old)/old x 100
Example: Percent Difference 1990-1991 CO
1990= 4.74 (old)
1991= 6.29 (new)
(6.29-4,74)- 1.55
1.55/4.74 = 0.327
0.327 x 100 = 32.7
"old" is the previous year, "new" is the next year. The processing can be followed from the raw data
presented.
Meaning: 32.7 means that from 1990 to 1991, CO increased by 32%
Importance: Illustrates the yearly change in percentage, which simplifies all the numbers. Helps
see how much a pollutant increased or decreased yearly.
Tells us if the number of cars or pollutants increased compared to the previous year.

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Table 2- Percent Difference per year for number of cars and levels of pollution.

Average Percent Difference, Justification:

Add the percent differences from a category and divide it by the number of years the
percentage differences were obtained from.

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Example for SO2 before "HNC".

7.68+5.56+3.62+0.39= 17.25
17.25/ 4= 4.31
The average will be divided into two sections: One prior to the instauration of "HNC" and one
after "before" covers from 1986-1987 to 1900-1991 and after covers from 1991-1992 to 2014-
2015. These averages will be obtained for two reasons: The first is to "stabilize" the data, as
percentage difference can change a lot from one year to another. The other reason is to
compare pollution before and after *HNC". These results will be concrete evidence to see if the
law helped decrease pollution levels, because it compares before and after.
Average processed data only focuses on the pollutants, as this can tell us if they have decreased
after HNC was created Analysis includes justification for the choices of processing
to allow the research question to be answered.
Table 3: Average Percent Difference of each pollutant before and after the implementation
of "Hoy No Circula"

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Graph 1: Percent Difference for S02, PM10, Ozone, NO2, CO before and after the
implementation of "Hoy No Circula"- Before: 1986-1991. After: 1991-2015.

Graph 1 illustrates the average percent change for all five pollutants before and after the
implementation of "HNC". It is important to consider that some averages are skewed, as the
government began publishing air quality data 4 years before "HNC." This means that the
average for the "before" part is not as reliable, as it is only made up of four numbers, and could
therefore be subject to other variables not considered in this experiment, such as factories. The
area regarding the "after" of the implementation is more reliable because it has averages for
over a decade. eliminating the chance of outside factors. One thing that stands out of this data
is the fact that, after the implementation of "IINC". all pollutants decreased by at least 1%.
Carbon monoxide and Sulphur dioxide were increasing before the program. and decreased after
it. Ozone and nitrogen dioxide were already beginning to decrease before the program, but this
process sped up afterward. The only outlier is PM. which slowed down after the program. It's
an outlier because of lack of data. PM was measured for the first time in 1990, giving the
"before" section only one year to create an average. Because it only had one sample, this is not
reliable data. The analysis looks at trends and patterns, and
mentions anomalies.
Percent of cars that did not circulate once a week, Justification:
Equation: (Cars that did not drive once per week/ Total Number of cars) x 100
Example: % cars for 2010
Cars that did not drive once a week: 941.687
Total number of cars: 4.166,756
941.687/4.166,756 = 0.22744
0.227744 x 100= 22.8%

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Meaning: the 22.8% means that out of all the cars in Mexico City in 2010, 22,8% of these could
not drive once a week.
Importance: Illustrates the number of cars affected by the program % change was chosen
because it demonstrates the effect of "HNC”. It is dependant on the program, not on the
number of cars.

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Table 3 illustrates how the percentage of cars that did not circulate per year. The older the
program, the higher the percentage of cars that did not circulate. This is because the norms A confusing sentence but it is correct in that the longer the
programme is implemented the higher the percentage of
became more strict. 2003 is an outlier, as the % of cars not circulating dropped from 22.1% to cars not on the roads.
8%. This is because the government allowed many more cars to circulate. From 2011 on, the %
spiked, increasing from 22% to 25%. (mentioned in context). Because of this, less cars circulated.

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Graph 2: Carbon Monoxide concentration levels (PPM) Vs. Percentage of Cars that did not
Circulate once a week for that same year. This graph is missing.

Graph 3: Nitrogen Dioxide concentration levels (PPB) Vs. Percentage of Cars that did not
Circulate once a week for that same year.

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Graph 4: Ozone concentration levels (PPB) Vs. Percentage of Cars that did not Circulate once a
week for that same year.
Graph 5: Particulate matter 10 concentration levels (yg-m3) Vs. Percentage of Cars that did not
Circulate once a week for that same year.
Graph 6: Sulphur dioxide concentration levels (PPB) Vs. Percentage of Cars that did not Circulate
once a week for that same year.
*Outlier- The point in 8% refers to the 2003 change of procedure, mentioned above.
Graphs 2-6 above show a somewhat clear relationship between the number of cars and
pollution levels. For all five pollutants, as the percentage of cars that did not circulate increased,
the pollution levels decreased sharply. In sulphur dioxide, a change of 2% regarding car
circulation equated to a change of 10 ppb. Line of best fit for the other four contaminants are
not as steep. meaning that the change in % did not affect pollution change as much.
Nonetheless, the data suggests a clear relationship between the two variables. As soon as
"HNC" was implemented the percentage of cars that could not circulate increased, and as a
consequence, pollution levels drop. It can be concluded that the number of cars, and therefore
the implementation of “HNC", has a direct relationship with the amount of pollution. It can be
concluded that the less % of cars circulating, the lower the pollution levels. Even though one graph is missing enough analysis is
given here, and the data can be seen in the tables.
Discussion and Evaluation:
The results of the investigation illustrate that if "HNC- is implemented. then the concentration
levels for CO, S02, PM10, NO2 and Ozone will decrease, supporting the hypothesis. So what does
this mean with regards to the environmental issue of air pollution? What impact does that have
on society? Graph 1 showed how, after this law was implemented, the concentration of
pollutants decreased at a faster rate than before. Graphs 2-6 demonstrated a clear relationship
between the % of cars that were kept of the streets to the levels of pollution. All this is important
because it shows that the program “HNC" has been effective. This law was created to lower air
pollution in Mexico City, and it has been effective in doing so. It could be said that some
pollutants have decreased slowly (Ozone decreased by -1.56 since the program began), yet it
still shows progress. This is significant because it increases the quality of life and the health of
more than 7 million people living in Mexico City. It is impactful because this pioneer program
can serve as a model for other cities around the globe. As this lab demonstrates that the
program has been successful in lowering the concentration levels of pollutants, it could signal a The discussion links the results back to the environmental
issue.
viable option for cities suffering from pollution problems.
However, one must be careful about drawing conclusions from this lab. It is a small
investigation, with weaknesses and limitations:

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Error/ Impact on the lab How to fix it

Limitation
Data Collection Data collected began in 1986, and the law was Look for data from before. This is very
(years) created in 1989. This gives very little room to create hard to do. as the government reports
the average for the "before" percent difference, began in 1986. Finding data prior from
making this part less accurate, as it could be private investigations is the best option
affected by outside variables,

Pollutant The 5 pollutants were chosen because these are Look for pollution levels produced
produced by cars. This does not take into account specifically by cars. This is hard to obtain,
pollution caused by factories. This impacts the lab as the pollutants get mixed up in the
because one must also take into account that the atmosphere and one cannot know where
decrease in pollutants is not just because of "HNC” they came from. There could be reports
-- There are other factors, such as limiting the concerning pollution from cars
factories. It makes the data less reliable because specifically. The limitations and improvements mentions only two
other laws apart from “HNC" can affect pollution elements. More should have been done on the sources
levels. used.

Applications Two solutions are mentioned. But taking the first one it has
all the elements required for this criterion. At the end the
This lab focuses on air pollution, which affects cities all over the world. This is partly caused by student mentions the first solution is the better one to use.
cars. The government has already taken the first step in mitigating these pollutants, yet the job
is still far from done. The most effective way would be to educate the population. By teaching
Mexicans the effects that air pollution can have on your health, as well as the benefits of using
methods of green transport, the number of cars would decrease. However, this would take a
long time, as educating 9 million people can take years. and helping people change their lifestyle
could take decades.
Another solution would be to increase public transportation. By building more metro lines, less
people will use cars, switching to public transport. This would also take at least a decade to
build, and would cost the government millions. Both solutions have limitations, as they would
take years and require heavy spending. However, the most effective solution would be to
educate the population of the negative effects of riding a car. This education would incentivise
people to using other methods of transport, drastically decreasing pollution levels in the long
run.

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Works Cited

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