HARVARD UNIVERSITY SUMMER SCHOOL

GOVT S-1726
Intelligence and International Security

Summer 2022
Online Web Conference (Zoom)
Tuesdays & Thursdays 18:30 – 21:30

Michael David Miner

miner@g.harvard.edu

Teaching Assistants:
Ashley Kelso, akelso@g.harvard.edu
Eliza Edwards, eliza.h.edwards@gmail.com

NOTE: THIS SYLLABUS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE as of 23 June 2022

This course explores the opaque world of intelligence and international security. The course begins with a
survey of disciplines and methods of analysis before reviewing intelligence requirements as a component in
policy processes that drive and inform decision-making within the national security system. Lectures and
discussion consider various intelligence related topics including espionage, covert action, politicization,
counterintelligence, public oversight, intelligence failure, and reform. The course strikes a balance between
contemporary issues and the storied histories of intelligence systems around the world. Though
predominantly focused on the United States the course also considers intelligence activities in the United
Kingdom, Russia, China, and elsewhere. Students grapple with historical and hypothetical problem sets based
upon real-world scenarios to develop assessment capabilities. Required readings and assignments draw on
classic and influential work in addition to declassified documents which illuminate the historical narrative in
a tangible way. Optional readings and content are highlighted for students interested in additional material.
Guest speakers are integrated into class discussion as schedules permit. The course concludes with reflections
on how experience informs current perspectives and might elucidate future requirements to better anticipate
and understand the changing world.

Learning Objectives: (1) Unpack the purpose, nuance, and complexities of intelligence with greater
appreciation for the historical record in the United States and around the world (2) Develop and refine
unbiased assessment capabilities for advanced study in national security and government (3) Enhance writing
capabilities to produce substantive analytical papers on contemporary issues (4) Communicate analyses and
key judgments inside estimates as though writing for a government or military consumer (5) Improve briefing
abilities and comfort level discussing complex though familiar topics.

Expectations: Weekly attendance in the live course, completion of assignments on time, reading of all
assigned materials in advance of class, readiness to discuss intelligence and national security topics, and
weekly participation in an online discussion forum on course website.

Assignments: (1) A national intelligence estimate topic proposal based on an issue selected by the student
from the most recent Intelligence Community Worldwide Threat Assessment (2) A substantive review of an
intelligence book selected by the student (3) An intelligence assessment addressing a developing crisis (4) A
well-developed national intelligence estimate on the issue proposed by the student and approved by the
faculty (5) A succinct class presentation with a brief Q&A session on the estimate as though briefing a
working group of national security professionals.

Faculty Office Hours: Held by appointment. Email to arrange a time as schedules allow.
Required Readings: Available on the course website or in the Harvard Library. All required readings and
assignments should be completed before the start of class it is assigned. They should be read in the order they
are listed from top to bottom unless otherwise directed. Try to keep up.

Recommended Readings: Indicated by * and are included for students who may find a topic interesting or
want to take a deeper dive into the relevant material.

Note on Readings: This is a dynamic course that incorporates current affairs and modern challenges as part
of assigned readings and assignments. You should expect additional timely readings as conditions warrant.

Required Books: Can be purchased, rented, or found in the Harvard Library and elsewhere.
• Loch K. Johnson and James J. Wirtz, Intelligence: The Secret World of Spies (Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 2018)
• Mark Lowenthal, From Secrets to Policy (Los Angeles: CQ Press, 2019)
• Thomas Fingar, Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Palo Alto:
Stanford University Press, 2011)

Highly Recommended Books: For students, professionals, and interested parties.

• David Omand, How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence (Penguin: Viking, 2020)
• James S. Major, Communicating with Intelligence: Writing and Briefing for National Security
(Landham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2014) Any edition is recommended.
• Amy Zegart and Condoleezza Rice, Political Risk: Facing the Threat of Global Insecurity in the
Twenty-first Century (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2018)

Additional Recommend Media: Ongoing series, podcasts, and extra content.

• Intelligence Matters with Michael Morell, Open-Source Report from Cipher Brief, Iron Butterfly
from the National Security Institute, Chatter from Lawfare, Spycast from the International Spy
Museum, World of Intelligence by Janes, I Spy from Foreign Policy, State Secrets by Cipher Brief,
True Spies from Spyscape, Lawfare Podcast by Lawfare.

Grades: Given the nature of the national security system, there are no deadline extensions or revision options.
Assignment prompts will provide clear direction and expectations. Late papers or projects will not be
accepted. Grade appeals must be submitted no more than three days after the assignment is returned and must
address the comments and consider the assignment expectations.
• Class Participation and Discussion Posts: 20 percent
o Students will be expected to make at least one comment a week on the discussion board on
the course website in response to a discussion prompt. (10)
o Students are expected to contribute to class discussions and attend live classes as directed.
(10)
• National Intelligence Estimate Proposal: 10 percent
o Students submit a succinct proposal for their final National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
paper on a subject they are interested in writing about in more detail. The subject must be
selected from the most recent declassified Worldwide Threat Assessment.
• Short Intelligence Assessment: 10 percent
o Students will produce a three-page intelligence assessment on a developing crisis.
• Intelligence Book Review: 10 percent
o Students will read a non-assigned intelligence book and write a critical review.
• National Intelligence Estimate Briefing: 20 percent
o Students will present a briefing on their NIE and take questions from class.
• Final National Intelligence Estimate: 30 percent
o Students will produce a substantive NIE to the best of their ability.
Grades reflect the quality and quantity of a student’s work submitted throughout the term. Students registered
for undergraduate or graduate credit who complete the requirements of a course may earn one of the following
grades: A and A–: Earned by work whose superior quality indicates a full mastery of the subject, and in the
case of A, work of extraordinary distinction. There is no grade of A+. B+, B, and B–: Earned by work that
indicates a strong comprehension of the course material, a good command of the skills needed to work with
the course materials, and the student’s full engagement with the course requirements and activities. C+, C,
and C–: Earned by work that indicates an adequate and satisfactory comprehension of the course material
and the skills needed to work with the course materials, and that indicates that the student has met the basic
requirements for completing assigned work and participating in class activities. D+, D, and D–: Earned by
work that is unsatisfactory but that indicates some minimal command of the course materials and some
minimal participation in class activities that is worthy of course credit. E: Earned by work that is
unsatisfactory and unworthy of course credit. This grade may also be assigned to students who do not submit
required work in courses from which they have not officially withdrawn by the withdrawal deadline. Zero or
E grades are assigned to students for missing work.

Harvard University Summer School Policies: You are responsible for understanding Harvard Summer
School policies on academic integrity (http://www.summer.harvard.edu/policies/student-responsibilities) and
how to use sources responsibly. Not knowing the rules, misunderstanding the rules, running out of time,
submitting the wrong draft, or being overwhelmed with multiple demands are not acceptable excuses. To
support your learning about academic citation rules, please visit Resources to Support Academic Integrity
(http://www.summer.harvard.edu/resources-policies/resources-support-academic-integrity) and the Harvard
Guide to Using Sources (https://usingsources.fas.harvard.edu). Accessibility: The Summer School is
committed to providing an accessible academic community. The Accessibility Services Office offers a variety
of accommodations and services to students with documented disabilities. Please visit
http://www.summer.harvard.edu/resources-policies/accessibility-services for more information. Publishing
Or Distributing Course Materials: Students may not post, publish, sell, or otherwise publicly distribute
course materials without the written permission of the course instructor. Such materials include, but are not
limited to, the following: lecture notes, lecture slides, video, or audio recordings, assignments, problem sets,
examinations, other students’ work, and answer keys. Students who sell, post, publish, or distribute course
materials without written permission, whether for the purposes of soliciting answers or otherwise, may be
subject to disciplinary action, up to and including requirement to withdraw from the Summer School. Further,
students may not make video or audio recordings of class sessions for their own use without written
permission of the instructor.

Registration & Enrollment: Undergraduate students should complete all required readings and assignments.
Graduate students may have additional requirements outlined in assignment prompts. Note on Expectations:
This course is designed for undergraduate and graduate students including those entirely new to security
studies and those with some background and/or professional experience. Though previous coursework is
useful you do not require prior experience or courses to do exceptionally well if you adhere to requirements.
Pay close attention to what you are asked to do in assignment prompts and remember near real-time analytical
work is seldom perfect but always requires strong, consistent, pragmatic effort. Do not be intimidated by
assignment expectations designed to help you to maximize your potential as you will develop as a writer and
critical thinker on complex issues. As a reminder, the subject matter we discuss in this course is important to
consider from several perspectives. Challenging topics are reflective of real-world dilemmas faced by
practitioners. Never hesitate to arrange office hours to further engage or if you have other concerns.

Class schedule: Please be mindful of the dates and times for class meetings. Be sure and review the syllabus,
assignment prompts, and provided guidance before asking questions already answered. However, if uncertain
please do reach out to the teaching staff and faculty as we are always here to help.
 Course Schedule – Summer 2022

Class 1: Intelligence and International Security

Class 2: Disciplines and the Intelligence Cycle

Class 3: Theories and Approaches in Tradecraft (NIE proposal due)

Class 4: Intelligence as a Component of Policymaking

Class 5: Covert Action

Class 6: Oversight, Ethics, and Accountability

Class 7: Counterintelligence

Class 8: The Lion: Intelligence Traditions in the United Kingdom

Class 9: The Eagle: The United States Intelligence Community (short intelligence assessment due)

Class 10: The Bear: Russian Intelligence Past and Present

Class 11: The Dragon: Intelligence Evolution in a Rising China (book review due)

Class 12: Espionage, Spies, and Secrets in Popular Culture

Class 13: Modern Day Intelligence Operations and Challenges

Class 14: Briefings (presentations due)

Class 15: Conclusion (final NIE due)

 HARVARD UNIVERSITY SUMMER SCHOOL
Intelligence and International Security, Summer 2022

*Recommended content for a deeper dive into the material including select historical documents.
**Individual readings listed are found in Johnson and Wirtz, Intelligence: The Secret World of Spies.

June 21: Intelligence and International Security

• Mark Lowenthal, Secrets to Policy, Chapter 1.
• John N MacGaffin and Peter Oleson, "Decision Advantage: The Why of Intelligence," Journal
of US Intelligence Studies, Fall/Winter 2015.
• Michael Warner, “Wanted: A Definition of Intelligence,” Studies in Intelligence 46, no. 3
(2002) Unclassified Edition.
• Ludwell Lee Montague, "The Origins of National Intelligence Estimating," Studies in
Intelligence 16, no. 2 (Spring 1972).
• Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “Public Attitudes on US Intelligence,” 20 May 2021.

June 23: Disciplines and the Intelligence Cycle

• Mark Lowenthal, Secrets to Policy, Chapters 4-5.
• Loch Johnson and James Wirtz, “Part II: Intelligence Collection.”
• Richard Moore, “Human Intelligence in the Digital Age.” International Institute for Strategic
Studies, 30 November 2021.
• Emily Hardy, “Open-Source Intelligence and Uncovering Secrets in Plain Sight,” Cipher Brief,
20 January 2022.
• Robert M. Clark, “Perspectives on Collection,” Journal of US Intelligence Studies, Fall/Winter
2013.
• Richard Betts, “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable,” World
Politics 31, no. 1 (1978).

June 28: Theories and Approaches in Tradecraft

• Thomas Fingar, Reducing Uncertainty (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2011) Entire.
• Sir David Omand, "Reflections on Intelligence Analysts and Policymakers," International
Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 33, No. 3 (2020).
• Sherman Kent, “Words of Estimative Probability,” Studies in Intelligence 8, no. 4 (1964).
• Joseph W. Gartin, “The Future of Analysis,” Studies in Intelligence 63, no. 2 (2019).
• *Richards J. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Washington, DC: Center for the Study
of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1999) pp.1-30.
• *Jeffrey A. Friedman, Jennifer S. Lerner, and Richard Zeckhauser, “Behavioral Consequences
of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals,”
International Organization 74, No. 4 (2017).

June 30: Intelligence as a Component of Policymaking

• James J. Wirtz, “The Intelligence-Policy Nexus.”
• Robert D. Blackwill and Jack Davis, “A Policymaker’s Perspective on Intelligence Analysis.”
• Martin Petersen, “What I Learned in 40 Years of Doing Intelligence Analysis for US Foreign
Policymakers,” Studies in Intelligence 55, no. 1 (2011).
• Amy Zegart and Condoleezza Rice, Political Risk: Facing the Threat of Global Insecurity in
the Twenty-first Century (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2018) Chapter 1 “The Blackfish
Effect.” Recommend entire book as time allows.
• Robert M. Gates, “Guarding Against Politicization,” Studies in Intelligence 36, no. 1 (1992).
 • *Shay Hershkovitz & David Siman-Tov, “Collaboration Between Intelligence and
Decisionmakers: The Israeli Perspective,” International Journal of Intelligence and
Counterintelligence 31, no. 3 (2018).
• *Douglas Wheeler, “A Guide to the History of Intelligence in the Age of Empires, 1500–
1800,” Journal of US Intelligence Studies, Summer/Fall 2011.

July 5: Covert Action

• Mark Lowenthal, Secrets to Policy, Chapter 8.
• Andru Wall, “Demystifying the Title 10 Title 50 Debate: Distinguishing Military Operations,
Intelligence Activities, & Covert Action,” Harvard National Security Journal 3 (2011).
• David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and the Surprising Use of
American Power (Broadway Books: New York, 2012) Part II.
• Ronen Bergman, Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations
(New York: Random House, 2018) Chapter 34.
• Adam Entous and Evan Osnos, "Qassem Suleimani and How Nations Decide to Kill," New
Yorker, 3 February 2020.
• Rory Cormac and Richard Aldrich, “Grey is the New Black, Covert Action and Implausible
Deniability,” International Affairs 94, no. 3 (2018).
• *David F. Rudgers, “The Origins of Covert Action,” Journal of Contemporary History 35, no.
2 (2000).
• *NSC Directive on Covert Operations: NSC 10/2, 18 June 1948.

July 7: Oversight, Ethics, and Accountability

• Gregory F. Treverton, “Intelligence: Welcome to the American Government.”
• Sir David Omand, "The morality of espionage: what distinguishes spying in the service of a
democracy from spying for a dictatorship?" Engelsberg Ideas, February 2021.
• Loch K. Johnson, “Congressional Supervision of America’s Secret Agencies: The Experience
and Legacy of the Church Committee.”
• Claudia Hillenbrand, “The Role of News Media in Intelligence Oversight,” Intelligence and
National Security 27, no. 5 (2012).
• Nigel Inkster, “Snowden Revelations: Myths and Misapprehensions,” Survival 56, no. 1 (2014).
• *Barry Zulauf, “Safeguarding Objectivity in Intelligence Analysis,” Studies in Intelligence 65,
no. 3 (Unclassified Extracts September 2021)
• *Office of the Counselor, “McCain Amendment and U.S. Obligations under Article 16 of the
Convention Against Torture.” United States Department of State. 15 February 2006.

July 12: Counterintelligence

• Lowenthal, Secrets to Policy, Chapter 7.
• David L. Charney and John A. Irvin, "The Psychology of Espionage," Journal of US
Intelligence Studies, Spring 2016.
• James M. Olson, “The 10 Commandments of Counterintelligence: A Never-ending Necessity,”
Studies in Intelligence 45, no. 5 (2001).
• Paul J. Redmond, “The Challenges of Counterintelligence.”
• *The White House, “Allegations of CIA Domestic Activities,” 3 January 1975.

July 14: The Lion: Intelligence Traditions in the United Kingdom

• Percy Cradock, “The British Experience with Intelligence.”
• Sir John Sawers, “Secrecy Is Not a Dirty Word: How Can the Public Have Confidence in Work
Done in Secret?” Vital Speeches of the Day 77. No. 1 (2011).
 • F.H. Hinsley, “The Influence of Ultra in the Second World War.” Lecture at King’s College
London Department of War Studies, 18 February 1992.
• Michael Goodman, “The Foundations of Anglo-American Intelligence Sharing,” Studies in
Intelligence 59, no. 2 (June 2015).
• *Cabinet Office, “National Intelligence Machinery.” 19 November 2010.

July 19: The Eagle: The United States Intelligence Community

• John Whiteclay Chambers II, OSS Training in the National Parks and Service Abroad in World
War II: Wild Bill Donovan and the Origins of the OSS. (2008).
• Loch K. Johnson, “A Conversation with James R. Clapper, Jr., The Director of National
Intelligence in the United States,” Intelligence and National Security 30, no. 1 (2015).
• Stephen B. Slick, “The 2008 Amendments to Executive Order 12333, United States Intelligence
Activities,” Studies in Intelligence 58, no. 2 (2014).
• Daniel R. Coats, “National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America.”
• *[Redacted] “The CIA’s Intelligence sharing with Congress,” Studies in Intelligence [1997,
declassified 2014]
• *Sherman Kent, "Prospects for the National Intelligence Service," Yale Review 36 (1946).
• *Allen W. Dulles, “William J. Donovan and the National Security,” Studies in Intelligence 3,
no. 3 (1959).

July 21: The Bear: Russian Intelligence Past and Present

• Christopher Andrew, The Sword and the Shield. The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History
of the KGB (1999) “Introduction,” Chapter 14 “Political Warfare: Active Measures and the
Main Adversary,” and “Conclusion: from the One-Party State to the Putin Presidency.”
• Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, “What makes Putin tick, and what the West should do,”
Brookings, 13 January 2017.
• Aaron Bateman, “The KGB and Its Enduring Legacy,” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies
29, no. 1 (2016).
• Calder Walton, “False-Flag Invasions Are a Russian Specialty,” Foreign Policy, 4 February
2022.
• Michael Goodman, David Frey, and David Gioe, “Unforgiven: Russian intelligence vengeance
as political theater and strategic messaging,” Intelligence and National Security 34, no. 4
(2019).
• *Thomas Rid, “Disinformation: A Primer in Russian Active Measures and Influence
Campaigns,” United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 30 March 2017.
• *Intelligence Community Assessment 2017-01D, “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions
in Recent US Elections.” ODNI. 6 January 2017.
• *L. K. Bekrenev, “Operational Contacts: Soviet doctrine on the holding of meetings with
agents,” Studies in Intelligence 9, no. 1 (1995) Adapted from a Top-Secret paper issued by the
Soviet Military-Diplomatic Academy in 1960.
• *George Kennan, “Political Warfare,” Policy Planning Staff Memo, 1948.

July 26: The Dragon: Intelligence Evolution in a Rising China

• Roger Faligot, Chinese Spies: From Chairman Mao to Xi Jinping (London: Hurst, 2019) Pt III.
• Edward Schwarck, “Intelligence and Informatization: The Rise of the Ministry of Public
Security in Intelligence Work in China,” The China Journal, no. 80 (2018).
• Nigel Inkster, “China’s Draft Intelligence Law,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, 26
May 2017.
• *Peter Mattis and Matthew Brazil, Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer
(Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2019).
 • *Ralph D. Sawyer, “Subversive Information: The Historical Thrust of Chinese Intelligence,” in
Intelligence Elsewhere (Washington: Georgetown University Press, 2013).

July 28: Espionage, Spies, and Secrets in Popular Culture

• Amy B. Zegart, “How Fake Spies Ruin Intelligence,” The Atlantic (2022).
• Watch at least one of the following films or two episodes of a series…that you have not seen:
Spione (1928) North by Northwest (1959) Our Man in Havana (1959) Dr. No (1962) The Spy Who Came In From
The Cold (1965) Army of Shadows (1969) The Conversation (1974) Three Days of the Condor (1975) Sandbaggers
(1978) The Hunt for Red October (1990) Sneakers (1992) GoldenEye (1995) Ronin (1998) Thirteen Days (2000)
Spy Game (2001) The Bourne Identity (2002) Spooks (2002) Munich (2005) Syriana (2005) Casino Royale (2006)
The Good Shepherd (2006) The Lives of Others (2006) Charlie Wilson’s War (2007) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
(2011) Homeland (2011) Argo (2012) Skyfall (2012) Zero Dark Thirty (2012) The Americans (2013) A Most Wanted
Man (2014) The Imitation Game (2014) The Honourable Woman (2014) A Most Wanted Man (2014) Bridge of Spies
(2015) The Bureau (2015) Eye in the Sky (2015) The Night Manager (2016) The Catcher Was a Spy (2018) Pine
Gap (2018) The Spy Gone North (2018) Tehran (2020) The Courier (2021) No Time to Die (2021)
• *Christopher Moran and Trevor McCrisken, “The Secret Life of Ian Fleming: Spies, Lies, and
Social Ties,” Contemporary British History 33, no. 3 (2018).

August 2: Modern Day Intelligence Operations and Challenges (Guest)

• Beth Sanner, “A Former Presidential Briefer Rethinks Truth to Power,” Cipher Brief, 13
December 2021.
• Adrian Wolfberg, “The President’s Daily Brief: Managing the Relationship Between
Intelligence and the Policymaker.”
• Paul Kolbe and Maria Robson Morrow, “How Corporate Intelligence Teams Help Businesses
Manage Risk,” Harvard Business Review, 4 January 2022.
• David Oakley, “The Problems of a Militarized Foreign Policy for America’s Premier
Intelligence Agency,” War on the Rocks, 2 May 2019.
• C. Lawrence Meador and Vinton G. Cerf, “Rethinking the President’s Daily Intelligence Brief,”
Studies in Intelligence 57, no. 4 (December 2013).
• *David Priess, The President’s Book of Secrets (New York: PublicAffairs, 2017).

August 4: Briefings
• Stephen Marrin, “Why Strategic Intelligence Analysis Has Limited Influence on American
Foreign Policy.”
• Christopher A. Kojm, “Change and Continuity: The National Intelligence Council, 2009-2014,”
Studies in Intelligence 59, no. 2 (2015).

August 5: Final NIE Due