Normal estimation equation on the employment rate in the Philippines from 1991 – 2016

Dainty Daisy P. Calgas, Lyann M. Leal, Kimberly O. Francisco, Bernadeth G. Nobles, and Audie B. Oliquino

Citation: AIP Conference Proceedings 2043, 020009 (2018); doi: 10.1063/1.5080028

View online: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5080028
View Table of Contents: http://aip.scitation.org/toc/apc/2043/1
Published by the American Institute of Physics

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Normal Estimation Equation on the Employment Rate in the
Philippines from 1991 – 2016
Dainty Daisy P. Calgas1, a), Lyann M. Leal2, b), Kimberly O. Francisco3, c),
Bernadeth G. Nobles4, d), and Audie B. Oliquino5, e)
1
Dangcagan National High School, Dangcagan,Bukidnon, Philippines
2
Math Teacher, Intermediate Department, Bulihan Sites & Services Project Elementary School
Bulihan Silang, Cavite, Philippines
3
Math Teacher, Intermediate Department, Cittadini School-San Pedro Laguna, Philippines
4
Associate Professor V, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science
Chairperson, Master of Science in Mathematics Education, College of Education, Graduate School
Polytechnic University of the Philippines, Philippines
5
Faculty Member, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science
Polytechnic University of the Philippines
a)
daintydaisypactores@gmail.com
b)
leallyann6@gmail.com
c)
khim_1492@yahoo.com
d)
bgnobles_pupcs@yahoo.com
bgnobles@pup.edu.ph
e)
aboliquino@pup.edu.ph

Abstract. The study was undertaken to formulate a statistical model and to study the behavior regarding with
the employment rate in the Philippines. So, in order to explore the factors that affect employment rate, this study
conducted a multiple linear regression and also with the help of MATLAB software, to find out whether the employment
rate declined or goes up. Considering the variables that could affect employment rate in the Philippines are the
following namely: Labor Force Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and
Interest Rate. The data used were acquired from the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) formerly called NSO
and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. So as to meet the objective of the study, the researchers intend to answer the
following question which specifically, sought to formulate a statistical model in Employment Rate in the Philippines:
(a) What is the behavior of the graph for each variables starting from the first quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of
2016; (b) Is there a significant relationship between the dependent and independent variables; (c) What will be the
statistical model for the Employment Rate; (d) Using Multiple Linear Regression, what are the significant factors that
affect Employment Rate; (e) Is there a significant difference between the actual and predicted values. From the result by
means of multiple regression analysis, the five independent variables; Labor Force Participation Rate, Unemployment
Rate, Inflation Rate, GDP and Interest Rate are found to be significant predictors of Employment rate. Using the
Normal Estimation Equation by the help of MATLAB, the said factors can explain Employment Rate by 99 percent.

The 6th International Conference on Science & Engineering in Mathematics, Chemistry and Physics
AIP Conf. Proc. 2043, 020009-1–020009-10; https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5080028
Published by AIP Publishing. 978-0-7354-1769-4/$30.00

020009-1
 INTRODUCTION
“Philippines are one of the most dynamic economies in the East Asia region, with sound economic fundamentals
and globally recognized competitive workforce”, as stated by The World Bank in its October 2015 report [1].
Employment rate are profound to the economic cycle of the Philippines. That is, in every country, employment is
necessarily for an individual to survive for an everyday living. Being employed is one of the people’s paramount in
life nowadays. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data, through Labor Force Survey (LFS), on
the second quarter of the year 1991 has its employment rate lowest record of 85.60% and reaching and all time high
of 95.30% in the fourth quarter of 2016 [2].
Based on the survey, the country’s employment rate grew from 93.4% in January 2015 to 94.2% in January
2016. The figure was equivalent to about 39.2 million employed Filipinos, with an estimated 752,000 additional jobs
generated in between the survey period [3]. However, the employed persons totaling 40.271 million likewise
registered a decline of 1.0 percent (393,000) from (40.664) million a year ago [4].
Furthermore, employment rates are sensitive to the economic cycle, but in a longer term they are significantly
affected by governments’ higher education and income support policies that facilitates employment [5]. It is maybe
the reason of the employment rate fluctuates and faced beaucoup of unemployed person.
This study aims to know the factors that affect the employment rate, and also establish a statistical model on the
employment rate from 1991 to 2016 on a quarterly basis. The researcher wanted to explore the trend of the
employment rate in the Philippines on a quarterly basis wherein according to the resolution approved by NSCB,
Executive Board Series of 2009, it is the closest method to estimates the number of persons who work four times for
an entire year and to be able to understand the need of being employed in country. And wanted to know the cause
why the employment rate goes down or goes up [6]. Base from the trading economics the factors which relatively
affect the Employment Rate are to be determined among the considered variables, namely Labor Force Participation
Rate, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Interest Rate [7]. The relationship
between the dependent and independent variables are also to be identified, whether they affect each other, or have a
long run relationship, or a linear one. Also, the study was taken for the purpose of knowing the trend of employment
rate as well as the situation of employment in the Philippines.

Research Paradigm

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES DEPENDENT VARIABLES

Quarterly Data of the Independent Variables

from the 1st Quarter of 1991 to the 4th Quarter
of 2016 gathered from Philippine Statistics
Authority & Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas EMPLOYMENT RATE OF THE
PHILIPPINES
1. Labor Force Participation Rate (1991-2016)
2. Unemployment Rate
3. Inflation Rate
4. Gross Domestic Product
5. Interest Rate

FIGURE 1. A research paradigm was charted by the researchers with the intention of attaining the purpose of the study by
following a set of procedures. The paradigm that follows showed the influence of the independent variables to the dependent
variables.

Using the quarterly data of the dependent and independent variables, the researchers aim to construct a statistical
model while using MATLAB or Matrix Laboratory and Multiple Linear Regression. Furthermore, the relationships
of the dependent and independent variables, whether causal, co integration, or linear, are to be identified using
several statistical tests.

020009-2
 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
So as to meet the objective of the study, the researchers intend to answer the following question which
specifically, sought to formulate a statistical model in Employment Rate in the Philippines.
1. What is the behavior of the graph for each variable starting from the first quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of
2016?
a. Employment Rate (y)
b. Labor Force Participation Rate (x1)
c. Unemployment Rate (x2)
d. Inflation Rate (x3)
e. Gross Domestic Product (x4)
f. Interest Rate (x5)
2. Is there a significant relationship between the dependent and independent variables?
3. What will be the statistical model for the Employment Rate?
4. Using Multiple Linear Regression, what are the significant factors that affect Employment Rate?
5. Is there a significant difference between the actual and predicted values?

SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

The study covers the data of the dependent and independent variables starting from the first quarter of 1991 to the
fourth quarter of 2016. There are six variables involved in the study, which were obtained in three different
institutions. Employment Rate, Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, Inflation Rate, Gross domestic
Product (GDP) values per quarter were gathered from the Philippine Statistics Authority, and interest rate from the
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

REVIEW OF RELATED STUDIES AND LITERATURE

A study of Sarra Ben Slimane contributes to the literature on employment-GDP elasticities by assessing the
determinants of cross-country variations in employment elasticities, focusing particularly on the role of demographic
and macroeconomic variables. Long-term employment–GDP elasticities are estimated using an unbalanced panel of
90 developing countries from 1991 to 2011 using a two steps estimation strategy. The most important results are: (i)
Elasticity estimates vary considerably across countries. (ii) Employment elasticities tend to be higher in more
advanced and closed countries. (iii) Macroeconomic policies aimed at reducing macroeconomic (price) volatility are
found to have significant effect in increasing employment elasticities. (vi) Employment intensity of growth tends to
be higher in countries with a larger service sector. (v) Countries with a higher share of urban population are typically
characterized by larger employment elasticities [8].
The paper by Miftahu Idris and Rosni Bakar is designed to explore the inflationary trend in Nigeria with the view
to determining it impact on economic growth. The study adopted a descriptive method and further utilized charts to
show the inflationary trend and GDP growth in order to provide better understanding on how inflation rates in
Nigeria affects the desired level of economic growth. This is necessary because identifying the possible relationship
between inflation and economic growth may expedite the process of realizing the feasible policy options to be
adopted towards achieving sound macroeconomic growth in Nigeria. This study therefore concludes that the current
inflationary trend in Nigeria is negatively affecting the realization of sustainable growth and development [9].
Based from the works of Urrutia, Tampis, Mercado, Baygan and Baccay (2016), Modeling the Philippines’ real
gross domestic product: A normal estimation equation for multiple linear regression, only three of the independent
variables are significant o the dependent variable namely: Consumers’’ Spending (x1), Capital formation (x3) and
Imports (x4), hence, can actually predict Real GDP (y). The regression analysis displays that 98.7% (coefficient of
determination) of the Independent Variables can actually predict the Dependent Variable. With 97.6% of the result
in Paired T-Test, the Predicted Values obtained from the model showed no significant difference from the actual
values of Real GDP [10].
Another study of Urrutia JD., Rivera CI., Quite JA., Belamide JA., Quinto J., (2014) Application of Seasonal
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) in Modeling and Forecasting Philippine Real Gross
Domestic Product state that in forecasting the Real Gross Domestic Product, the best-fitted model obtained is:
SARIMA (5, 2, 1) x (0, 1, 1)4. Predicted Values obtained from the model with 99% coefficient of determination

020009-3
reveals no significant difference between the Actual Values of Real Gross Domestic Product examined through
Paired T-Test. The Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression results shows that all the five Independent Variables are
significant factors of Real GDP particularly indicating a positive significant relationship between the Real Gross
Domestic Product (y)and Independent Variables: Consumer Spending (x1) Government Spending (x2), Capital
Formation (x3) and Imports (x5); but have a negative significant relationship on Exports (x4). The Johansen
Cointegration Test results imply that a cointegration exists between the Variables indicating a long run relationship.
The Pairwise Granger Causality test suggests a uni-directional relationship having Real Gross Domestic Product
granger causes Government Spending and Exports [11].

METHODOLOGY
This chapter presents the statistical treatments used by the researchers to be able to come up with the expected
outputs.

MATLAB
MATLAB stands for Matrix Laboratory and the software is built up around vectors and matrices. This makes the
software particularly useful for linear algebra but MATLAB is also a great tool for solving algebraic and differential
equations and for numerical integration [12].

Multiple Linear Regression

Multiple linear regressions were applied to determine which among the five given variables can influence the
employment rate. And also, it used to study the relationship between a dependent variable they predict and one or
more independent variables. Linear regression consists of a set of assumptions that describes how the data set is
produced by data generating process. This assumption includes the following:
1. Linearity. The model is assumed to be linear with respect to the parameters.
2. Multicollinearity. There is no relationship among any of the independent variables in the model.
3. Homoscedasticity. The variances are constant.
4. Normality. The disturbances are normally distributed.
5. Independence of errors. The parameters are independently and identically distributed.
It is based on least squares where the model is fit such that the sum-of-squares of differences of observed and
predicted values is minimized. The model created expresses the value of a predict and variable as a linear function
of one or more predictor variables and an error term [13]:

yi b0  b1 x1i  b2 x 2i  ...  bk x ki  ei (1)

where yi is the predict and in year i, b0 is the regression coefficient, bk is the coefficient on the kth predictor, xik is the
value of kth predictor in year i, ei is the error term, and k is the total number of predictors.

Normal Estimation Equation

In constructing a model, a matrix notation can aid for the computations and manipulations. The whole sample of n
observations can be expressed in the matrix notation:

= +

where y is the n-dimensional column vector, x is a n (k+1) matrix, β is a (k+1)-dimensional column vector of
parameters, and u is a n-dimensional column vector of error terms.

020009-4
 1 ⋯
⎡ ⎤ ⎡1 ⋯ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⋯ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥=⎢1 ⎥×⎢ ⎥+⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋮ ⎥ ⎢⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎥ ⎢⋮⎥ ⎢⋮⎥
⎣ ⎦ ⎣1 ⋯ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦

Ordinary least squares (OLS) minimize the squared distances between the observed and predicted variable y:

( )= ( − ′ ) =( − )′( − )→

The resulting OLS estimator of β is written as:

=( ′ ) ′
Its matrix nature is written in the form of:

This can be used to predict the dependent variable, and the error term called as residual [14].

Paired T-test.
Paired t-test is used to compare two population means where you have two samples in which observations in one
sample can be paired with observations in the other sample. The assumptions must be that the data are normally
distributed, and the sample is randomly selected [15]. The t-statistics is obtained from the formula [16]:

u
t
s2 / n (2)

where ū is the mean difference, s2 is the sample variance, n is the sample size, and t is a student t-quantile with n – 1
degrees of freedom.

Pearson’s r.
The researcher used the linear product-moment correlation coefficient, also known as Pearson’s correlation
coefficient, to express the strength of the relationship. Pearson’s correlation coefficient is denoted by r and is defined
by [17]:
−
=
{ − ( ) }{ −( ) }

The value of r always lies between –1 and 1 inclusive, that is, - 1≤ r ≤1. If Y increases when X increases, we say
that there is positive or direct correlation between them. However, if Y decreases when X increases (or vice versa),
then we say that they are negatively or inversely correlated.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This section provides the interpretation of data and analysis of the results.

020009-5
 Trend of the Variables
Within the span of 25 years, some of the six variables showed fluctuating trends because of some reasons. There are
variables also that exhibits downward trend, but most of the variables revealed an upward trend. The reasons behind
those fluctuations were discussed by the researchers, and the lowest and highest values were also recorded. The
graph of each variable is shown and below is the behavior of each one.

(a) (b)
FIGURE 2. (a) Employment rate. From 1991 to 2007, the average employment rate of the Philippines sat at 90.12%, reaching an
all-time high of 95.30% in (the 4th quarter of) 2016 and was its lowest in (the second quarter of) 1991 at 85.60% [18]. The Labor
Force Survey showed an improvement in the country’s labor and employment conditions. The number of jobless persons
declined by 14.0 %, it was 2.0 million from 2.4 million a year ago. Additional employment created in fourth quarter totaled 1.9
million, due largely to the strong growth in the service and industry sector. The conditions of labor and employment in the
country have been improved based on the preliminary estimates of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA’s) Labor Force
Survey in last quarter of the year 2016 [19]. (b) Labor force participation rate is the proportion of the population ages 15 and
older that is economically active which includes all people who supply labor for the production of goods and services during a
specified period [20]. Base on the report from the Labor Force Survey rounds from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of the
year 2016, the Labor Force Participation rate of 63.6% out of the 68.734 million population 15 years old and over. This is
equivalent to about 43.705 million economically active populations compromising either the employed or unemployed persons.
The movement of the labor force participation rate decreases it was 63.8% in first quarter of the year 2015 before slightly dipping
to 63.3% the year after partly due to the decision among the youth to opt out of labor force to attend school and become full-time
students [21].

(a) (b)
FIGURE 3. (a) Unemployment rate. Unemployment rate in the Philippines and other countries is defined as the number of
unemployed people as percent of the labor force. The labor force includes the people who are either employed or unemployed.
The World Bank provides data for the Philippines from 1991 to 2016. The average value for the Philippines during that period
was 8.44 percent with a minimum of 5.88 percent in 2016 and a maximum of 11.85 percent in 2004 [22]. From the works of
Urrutia, Tampis and Atienza, Labor Force Rate and Population are the significant factors of unemployment rate. These variables

020009-6
can affect the movement of the unemployment rate. Any increase on those variables can cause the unemployment rate [23]. (b)
Inflation rate. During the observation period from 1991 to 2016, it has the average rate of 5.9% per year. The rate of 19.3% in
1991 means, that composed to the previous year and prices have been increased by an average of 19.3%. In compare to the other
countries, the drastic price increases are no longer average. Usually this is a sign of political and economic turmoil [24].
However, Philippines inflation rate fluctuated substantially in recent years, it intended to decrease through 1997 – 2016 period
ending to 1.8% in 2016 [25]. Inflation fell to 1.4 percent in 2015, below the inflation target range (2-4) percent, due to lower food
and fuel prices. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent in 2016 as commodity prices stabilize [26].

(a) (b)
FIGURE 4. (a) Graph of GDP. The Philippines’ growing middle class, strong domestic demand, and stable political environment
emphasize job creation and inclusive economic growth. This results to the continuous rise of GDP. Despite from the slow global
growth, Philippines remained a strong performer in the region. It was started low in the first half of the year 2015 due to weak
government spending the economy bounced back in the second half, bringing full year growth to 5.8 percent in 2015. The
economy has remarkably well in the face of a weaker external environment and global financial turbulence in 2015. Despite a
large drag from net exports, the real GDP growth remained robust in 2015 at 5.8%, reflecting a strong pickup in private
investment and public construction through the year. It was projected that the GDP growth at 6.0 in 2016 [27]. (b) Graph of
Interest Rate. It’s the amount charged, expressed as a percentage of principal, by a lender to borrower for the use of assets. It is
also typically noted on an annual basis, known as the annual percentage rate (APR) [28]. The Monetary Board decided to
maintain the interest rate on the BSP’s overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility at 3.0 percent. The corresponding interest
rates on the overnight lending and deposit facilities were also kept steady. The reserve requirement ratios were likewise left
unchanged [29].

Significant Relationship between Dependent and Independent Variables

TABLE 1. Among the five independent variables, it reveals that all of it has significant relationship with the
dependent variable which is less than the level of significance of 0.01. Conversely, the five variables namely
Labor Force Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, GDP and Interest Rate reveals to have a
weak negative correlation with Employment Rate based on their Pearson coefficient of determination, but shown
to have a significant linear relationship with the dependent variable

Pearson r p-value Interpretation

Labor Force Rate (x1) -0.770 0.000 Significant
Unemployment Rate (x2) -0.999 0.000 Significant
Inflation Rate (x3) -0.308 0.001 Significant
GDP (x4) 0.675 0.000 Significant
Interest Rate (x5) -0.402 0.000 significant

020009-7
FIGURE 5. The scatterplot diagram between the dependent and independent reveal the linear relationship between the dependent
and independent variables. The more points cluster closely around the imaginary line of best fit, the stronger the relationship that
exists between the two variables. It can be seen that Labor Force Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate and
Interest Rate have downward trends indicating an inverse relationship with Employment Rate, which means if the said variables
were decrease the employment rate will increase. While Gross Domestic Product indicates a direct relationship since the
regression line is inclined upward it means that, if the employment rate increase the GDP will also increase.

STATISTICAL MODEL FOR EMPLOYMENT RATE

Normal Estimation

To be able to formulate the estimating model for Employment Rate, the matrix theory was applied to this research
for the mathematical computations and manipulations. Following the formula indicated in the research methodology,
the matrix is written in the form of:

And using the OLS estimator equation,

=( ′ ) ′

Thus, formulating a new estimation equation written in the form of:

. . . . . .
=

This mathematical model has a coefficient of determination of 0.999. This indicates that the factors included in the model can
explain Employment Rate by almost 99 percent. From the model, it can be concluded that a one increase in GDP and Interest
Rate can cause Employment Rate to increase by 1.79843E-08, and 0.002436888 respectively. Moreover, a one increase in Labor
Force Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate, and Inflation Rate can deflate Employment Rate by 0.000441121, 0.991891433
and 0.001037551, correspondingly.

020009-8
 Significant Factors of Employment Rate
After conducting a multiple linear regression using the six variables with the Employment Rate as the dependent
variable, the researchers were able to identify the significant factors of employment rate among the five independent
variables considered.
TABLE 2. Illustrate that all the independent variables revealed to be significant predictor of employment rate that
can actually affect the movement of Employment Rate with the value that is less than the significance level 0.01.
Since the p-values are less than the levels of significance this means that the null hypothesis is rejected and
concluded that the five variables are significant factor of Employment Rate. If there’s an increase or decrease in
the said variable, it can cause the employment either go up or go down.

p-value
Labor Force Participation Rate (x1) 0.000000
Unemployment Rate(x2) 0.000000
Inflation Rate (x3) 0.001442
GDP (x4) 0.000000
Interest Rate (x5) 0.000023

FIGURE 6. Graph of the actual and predicted values of employment rate.Using this model, the researchers are able to predict the
values of the employment rate from 1991 to 2016 in a quarterly basis. Furthermore, the graph of the two values reveals that the
values are closely related to each other indicating that they are closely identical to each other

Predicted Values
Through the chosen model, the predicted value of employment rate was obtained. To test whether there is a difference between
the actual and predicted values of the data series; the researchers used the Paired T-test.

TABLE 3. Paired t-test.

p-value
t-statistic 0.990
Based on the results, it is found out that there is no significant difference between the two values having a p-value
of 0.990. This indicates that the model is actually good enough in estimating the employment rate since the actual
and predicted values are 99 percent identical.

CONCLUSION
Employment rate commonly measured by the ratio of labor force participation and population, it is very important
to scrutinize the value of employed person in order to oversee its state and society on the way for improvement. In
this study, the researchers are able to formulate a mathematical model in estimating Employment rate in the

020009-9
Philippines, as well as identify some of its factors. Based on the result using multiple regression analysis, the five
independent variables; Labor Force Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, GDP and Interest Rate
are found to be significant predictors of Employment rate. From the model formulated using the normal estimation
equation by the help of matrices, the said factors can explain Employment Rate by 99 percent.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was partially supported by the Polytechnic University of the Philippines. The authors thankful to
their Professor Jackie Urrutia who provided expertise that greatly assisted the research. Also the authors immensely
grateful to Jamil Akhtar, P.N. Gajjar and Ford Lumban Gaol for their comments on an earlier version of the
manuscript, although any errors are own by the authors and should not tarnish the reputations of these esteemed
professionals.

REFERENCES
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www.bsp.gov.ph/monetary/monetary_1516.asp

020009-10