NIGERIA'S

2023
PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS
Most Preferred Candidate and
Issues Shaping Voter's Decision

Poll Results
17th September 2022
NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Table of Contents

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NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

2023 NIGERIA ELECTIONS

Who Should Become the President?
Introduction Study Rationale
O n S at u rd ay , 2 5 t h F e b r u a r y 2 0 2 3 , With insights from this survey, analysts will
Nigerians will elect a new president. The be able to have a better understanding of
country is charged with political activities Nigerian citizens' preferences for the 2023
and many candidates are posturing for the elections. Further discussions about the
presidency. At the moment 18 persons competing candidates' plans for Nigeria,
have declared their intentions to run or are and their ability to address the key socio-
canvassing support surreptitiously. economic challenges need to be explored
in the build-up to the 2023 elections.
Ahead of the upcoming Presidential
elections, an opinion poll was conducted Study Methodology
on registered voters by the We2Geda Study Design
Foundation. This survey provides crucial The research team used an empirical
insights into issues at play in Nigeria's 2023 methodology to narrow the field of
election. candidates from the top 12 to a more
manageable number that could be
Study Objectives included in the survey instrument. This
The opinion poll aimed to: approach was adopted to ensure that the
• Identifying Nigerians' preferences for a survey provided meaningful insights.
presidential candidate at the outset.
• Understanding the key socio-
economic issues that influence their
choice for President.
• Understanding how, or even if at all,
ethnic and gender biases influence the
choice for President.

The team used a five-step process to narrow the field to 5 candidates. This process
included (a) generating a comprehensive list of candidates, (b) outlining the critical issues
that will shape a candidate's electability in the 2023 elections, (c) agreeing on the
candidates' selection criteria, including a weighting system, (d) evaluating the long list of
candidates, and (e) categorising the candidates by tier. Only the candidates in Tier 1 are
evaluated in this poll.

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Study Population, Sample Size and

Sampling Technique
We2Geda randomly surveyed a total of customised Customer Relationship
17,053 registered voters in 36 states and Management tool (CRM) for data analysis.
the FCT. This was done entirely through
fully randomised direct phone calls in local No discriminatory criteria were used in
languages, to achieve real representation administering the survey. All respondents
of registered voters across Nigeria and had equal opportunities to participate in
NOT just people on the internet. the survey, and all responses were
independent of the respondent's volition.
Respondents came from across local
governments and were stratified Data Analysis
proportionally by key demographics, e.g. We2gedaNG used analytic tools to clean
rural vs. urban, gender, age. The proportion up and analyze the data using simple
of Nigerians polled from each state was descriptive statistics. The team then used
equal to the state's contribution to the Pentaho and Excel to virtualize the data for
national voters' register, as published by ease of understanding. Aggregation and
INEC. enhancements of the data were done
using various modelling tools such as R-
For instance, as Abia contributes 2.3% of Models and AI.
the national voters register, Abia also
made up 2.3% of respondents in the Ethical Consideration
randomised poll. The same process Response to the survey was taken as
applied in every state, and polls within consent. Respondents were guaranteed
each state were 100% randomised. anonymity as the team did not collect any
information or data that could breach the
Survey Instrument respondent's privacy or confidentiality.
The team used a structured survey
questionnaire comprising 8 questions. The The respondents to this survey were not
first part of the survey elicited skewed more in favour of persons from
demographic information. The second any geopolitical zone. We generated data
section reviewed respondents' preferred based on the percentage contribution of
candidate for the office of president. The each local government to the state and
third section interrogated respondents' national voters' register. This ensures that
biases in deciding who they vote for as d at a u s e d i n t h e s u r v ey i s a t r u e
president. representation of voters in Nigeria.
Data Collection Data Collection & Study Limitations
Quality Assurance The study used a combination of cluster
Interviews were conducted at the and random sampling techniques to
We2Geda contact centre by a 30-person ensure responses from each of the six
multilingual team of agents speaking local geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Nonetheless,
languages including - Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba, a total of 17,053 persons responded to the
Pidgin and English. study.
The survey process consisted of feeding
smart numbers using a predictive dialer
into an Interactive Voice Response (IVR).
T h i s p ro m p t e d a n A u t o m a t i c C a l l
Distributor (ACD) to hand off the call to a
contact center agent. The agent then
inputted their survey response into a
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Survey Findings:
Preferences for
President
NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Most Preferred Presidential Candidates Most Preferred President

Of the respondents that disclosed their 1. Peter Obi – LP
preferred presidential candidate, 51%
selected Peter Obi for president. Atiku 2. Atiku Abubakar – PDP
Abubakar was second with 25%, while Bola 3. Bola Tinubu – APC
Ahmed Tinubu was third with 19%, Rabiu 4. Rabiu Kwankwaso – NNPP
Kwankwaso received 3% voter support,
with all the other candidates securing a 5. Yusuf Mamman Dan Talle – APM
total of 2% of the votes. 6. Omoyele Sowore – AAC
7. Prince Malik Ado-Ibrahim – YPP
Survey respondents ranked their top 12
candidates in order of their preferred 8. Christopher Imumulen – AP
presidential candidate. 9. Peter Umeadi- APGA
10. Kola Abiola – PRP
11. Dumebi Kachikwu – ADC
12. Prince Adewole Adebayo - SDP

Preference - broken down into Geo-Political contribution

A review of all the respondents across the regions shows that Peter Obi is a consistent
favourite, leading in 4 regions: North Central, South-South, South-West and South-East. At
the same time, Atiku Abubakar leads in North East and North West zones respectively.

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51%
VOTERS’
PREFERENCE
Results of fully randomized phone call survey
conducted on registered voters in all 36 states
and FCT, as at September 12, 2022. South-West

25%
South-South

South-East

19% North-West

North-East

North Central

3%
2%
OTHERS RABIU KWANKWASO BOLA TINUBU ATIKU ABUBAKAR PETER OBI
NNPP APC PDP LP

POLLING RESULTS PER REGION (i.e. candidates' split of each region)

North Central

53% of respondents from North Central Nigeria prefer Peter Obi for president. Atiku
Abubakar came in second with 24% of the responses. Bola Ahmed Tinubu secured 19% of
the respondents. Rabiu Kwankwaso got 2% while others secured 2%.

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NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

North East

Atiku Abubakar got 41% of the respondents' votes from this region, Peter Obi received 34%,
while Bola Ahmed Tinubu secured 30% of the respondents. It should be noted that Atiku
Abubakar is from this region hence expected to get a significant percentage of votes.

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North West

Atiku Abubakar received 38% of the prospective voters from this region with Peter Obi
getting 30% while Bola Ahmed Tinubu secured 23% of the respondents.

South South

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70% of respondents from the South South region prefer Peter Obi, with Atiku Abubakar
coming a distant second with 16%. Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the third most preferred
candidate with 10%.

South West

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NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

47% of respondents preferred Peter Obi over Bola Ahmed Tinubu who scored 33% of
prospective voters. Atiku Abubakar scored a distant 17% of respondents' vote.

South East

A review of all the respondents from South East shows that Peter Obi is a clear favourite.
82% of respondents from the South East prefer Peter Obi as president. Atiku Abubakar came
in distant second at 8%, with Bola Ahmed Tinubu at third with 6%.

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Survey Findings:
Most Critical
Development
Challenges
NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Analysis of the survey responses shows that Nigerians are most concerned with the high
level of insecurity in Nigeria. 42% of the respondents indicated that insecurity is the most
important challenge in the country. Corruption ranked second with 18%, jobs ranked third
with 9 percent, while education ranked fourth with 8 percent of respondents stating their
dissatisfaction with the Federal Government's response to the ASUU strike.

The ranking of the key challenges remains relatively the same across responses from all
geopolitical zones. These issues would likely shape the 2023 political campaign season.
The electorate expects to hear the candidates provide pragmatic answers to these
challenges. See below for a list of the other developmental challenges.

What do you think are the most important issues/challenges

you face in Nigeria?

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NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Have you collected your PVC?

Analysis of the survey responses shows
that 93% of respondents have collected
their PVCs and are planning to vote in the
upcoming 2023 elections.

Do you plan to vote?

How important is the 2023 presidential election to you?

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NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Preferred Language

Analysis of the survey responses shows that

43% responded in English and Hausa ranked
2nd with 22%.

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NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Analysis &
Conclusion
The survey yielded interesting insights on Nigerians' preference for president.
• It is important to restate that the respondents were evenly distributed across all
geopolitical zones. Currently, Peter Obi is the most preferred candidate among more
than the required 25% of voters in more than 24 states of the federation, Atiku Abubakar
is more preferred in the Northern geopolitical zones, and Bola Ahmed Tinubu holds
sway in some South-West states but comes second in the entire region.

• Additionally, unlike previous elections, repondents to this survey indicated a strong

willingness to vote. When asked the question, “Do you plan to vote?”, 94% of the
respondents surveyed said “yes”, 2% said no, and 4% were undecided.

• Another key takeaway from this survey is that insecurity is the most important issue to
voters across all the geopolitical zones of the federation.

• Finally, while the polling result reflects the respondents who had a clear preference, it
is important to note that a significant percentage of voters (38%) remain undecided or
non-commital to a candidate and. Ultimately, this group could decide conclusively
which candidate emerges the winner of the 2023 presidential election.

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Appendix
Appendix 1. Statewise Data

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Appendix 2. List of Top 12 Candidates and their Parties

Appendix 3. Script used in the contact centre

Good (Morning/Afternoon/Evening)
My name is xxxxx. I am calling on behalf of the We2geda Foundation. We would like to
know your ideas and opinions about the quality of life and political issues in Nigeria.
I know you love our beloved nation and it is important that we try to improve the lives of
people who live here. This survey will only take a few minutes.
1. Which language is okay for you?
• English
• Pidgin
• Hausa
• Yoruba
• Igbo
2. Do you plan to vote?
• If Yes – Note answer
• If No – Note answer
3. Have you collected your PVC?
• If Yes – Note answer
• If No – Note answer
4. What do you think are the three (3) most important issues/challenges you face in
Nigeria? (Note the responses)
• Crime/Security
• Education
• Healthcare
• Water supply
• Electricity
• Corruption
• Roads
• Housing
• Transportation

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NIGERIA'S 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

• Jobs
• Oil Spillage
• Other (Include a space to clarify “Other”)
5. How important is the 2023 presidential election to you?
• Very Important
• Important
• Not Important
• Indifferent
6. Who will you be voting for in the 2023 presidential election?
[free response]

On behalf of We2geda Foundation, I would like to thank you for your time and wish you a
wonderful day.

Hang up.

Appendix 4. Other reports

Respondents' Geopolitical Regions

Respondents are from a fully randomised selection of registered voters in every local
government in Nigeria. The population of voters randomly polled from each local
government is varied to match the % contribution of that local government to the full
voter's register as published by INEC. Highest number of respondents were from the North
West followed by the South West while least respondents were from the South East.

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Respondent Age Range

Almost 25% of respondents are aged between 18 and 30 years. The highest respondent
group - by a small margin - is between 41 and 50 years (29 percent). Another high
respondent group (25 percent) is in the age group of 31 to 40 years. Respondents aged 26
to 30 years made up 15 percent of the respondents.

Recent data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) shows that over
1.2 million of the 1.73 million Nigerians that completed their registration in November 2021
are young people aged between 18 and 34 years. This age group accounts for about 22
percent of the population. This age group is critical to Nigeria's future as the country has a
median age of 18.1 years, and 76.7 percent of the population is less than 34 years.

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Respondent by Gender

51% of respondents were male while 49%

represented the female gender. This
shows almost an even distribution of both
genders.

Respondent Age range by Geopolitical Region

Total of all percentages = 100%

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Respondent Gender by Region

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