Eadlines: US Unemployment Inches Up To 9.2%
Eadlines: US Unemployment Inches Up To 9.2%
Eadlines: US Unemployment Inches Up To 9.2%
Headlines
(Global Economy) (Indian Economy) (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) (Technical Analysis) Nifty June Futures closed at 5672.30 Nifty Support levels are at 5530-5470 and resistance 5740-5800. US unemployment inches up to 9.2%. Exports & Imports jumped 57% and 54% in May respectively.
(Weekly Recommendations) SYNDIBANK AND TATA POWER (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
US
EU
Japan
UK
China
Brazil
Russia
Headline Inflation b y WPI (Ma y11) Annualized Rate (Current) Headline Inflation (W PI) Primary Produc ts Fuel Power and Lubric ants Manufac tured Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on Jul y 8, 2011) Current USD GBP Euro Yen 44.33 70.74 63.65 54.55 1 Week Change Weekly 1 Year 46.68 70.79 58.29 53.03 8.42% 8.08% Change Annual -5.03% -0.07% 9.20% 2.87%
44.59 -0.58% 71.75 -1.41% 64.80 -1.77% 55.33 -1.41% Debt Market Yields
1700 1600 1500 1400 Gold ($/OZ) 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Silver ($/OZ)
390 110 380 370 360 90 350 340 80 330 320 310 60 Jul-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 300
70
15 10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Silver Feb-11 Gold Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11
Inventory
Crude Oil
Currencies
1.8 1.75
0.013 0.0125
Currencies
1.7 1.65
0.012
USD / GBP
1 USD / JPY 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.0105 0.8 0.01 0.0095 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 0.75 0.7 USD / AUD 0.0115 0.011
1.6 1.3 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11
USD / EUR
USD / GBP
Economic Calendar
India Date 12-Jul 14-Jul 14-Jul 14-Jul 14-Jul Event Industrial Production (YoY) Monthly Wholesale Prices (YoY) Food Articles WPI YoY Fuel Power Light WPI YoY Primary Articles WPI YoY Period MAY JUN 02-Jul 02-Jul 02-Jul Prior 6.3% 9.06% 7.61% 12.67% 11.56% US Date 12-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul 14-Jul 14-Jul 14-Jul 14-Jul 14-Jul 15-Jul 15-Jul 15-Jul 15-Jul Event Trade Balance Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes Import Price Index (YoY) Producer Price Index (YoY) Advance Retail Sales Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Business Inventories Consumer Price Index (YoY) Empire Manufacturing Industrial Production U. of Michigan Confidence Period MAY JUN JUN JUN 09-Jul 02-Jul MAY JUN JUN JUN JUL P Prior -$43.7B 12.5% 7.3% -0.2% 9.1% 0.8% 0.8% 3.6% -7.79 0.1% $6.25B
Inventory
(Million Barrels)
120
Crude Oil
400
Sectoral Indices BSE AUTO BSE METALS BSE BANKEX BSE IT 9,101.5 14,963.8 12,920.4 6,199.2 Weekl y Gainers (BSE100) Unitech United Spirits 36.55 1077.3 11.9% 9.9% 3.6% -1.2% 0.5% 0.8%
Weekl y Losers (BSE100) LIC Housing Finance Coal India 216.7 362 -9.7% -5.7%
Outlook
Indian markets gained steadily over the week on continuous FII buying. Some selloff in Metal and Mining counters was seen on Friday as the new Mining Bill proposed profit sharing with people affected by their projects. Food inflation also fell for the week. Silver rose above the crucial support level of 50,000. On the derivatives front, put writing is seen at 5400-5500 and call writing is seen at 5700-5800, suggesting 5400-5800 to the trading zone for the short term. Last week saw good gains in sugar stocks. Agrochemical stocks are likely to see some upsides. Metal and Mining stocks should be avoided in short term. With FIIs remaining bullish on Indian Markets, the markets are likely to consolidate in short term. Cash based buying is seen in midcap and smallcap stocks. IIP data would be keenly watched in the coming week which would give further direction to markets.
Weekl y Turnover (in INR Bn) BSE NSE CASH NSE F&O 152.3 548.9 3944.4
Institutional Activit y in INR Bn (Weekl y) Institutions FIIs DIIs Net Inflow 35.6 -18.9
Market Snapshot Nifty July Futures closed at 5672.30 (Premium of 1.65 over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 28 July): 22.45 mn. Open interest BankNifty FUTIDX (Expiry 28 July): 1.02 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 18.67, up 0.46 from previous weeks close (18.21). In the week VIX touched low of 17.35 and high of 18.79. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option)
6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1 ,000,000 5200 5300 5500 5000 5700 51 00 6000 5400 5600 5800 5900
Across all expiries, open interest is highest at the 5700, 5600, 5800 call options, while open interest in the put options is highest at 5300, 5000, 5400 strike prices, suggesting 5300-5700 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term.
Strik e
Change in OI
5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000
Sector Wise OI Change: Bank, Oil&Gas, Metal&Mining, CapitalGoods, IT, Pharma sectors saw gains in OI.
OI-Change
2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) (1,500,000) (2,000,000) 6000 5000 5400 5600 5800 5900 5200 5300 5500 5700 5100
Strike
Cement CapitalGoods IT
Sectors
Pharma Auto Metal&Mining Oil&Gas Realty Bank Power -1 00% 1 00% 400% 1 50% 200% 300% 250% 350% -50% 50% 0%
% Change in OI
% Change in OI
Nifty PC Ratio
1.4 1.3 1.2 PCR 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul Date 8-Jul
ORCHIDCHEM SIEMENS ABB ABIRLANUVO DCB ESSAROIL CESC INDUSINDBK TTML HINDZINC
-8.15% 2.50% -0.75% -0.06% 4.59% 5.19% 10.40% 4.55% 8.92% -3.96%
-19.36% 55.27% 6.00% 5.02% 37.09% 14.98% 48.10% -7.31% 12.57% 23.49%
1015.52% 895.15% 657.51% 648.81% 596.26% 581.54% 573.97% 434.07% 384.82% 382.93%
(Source Iris) Conclusion Last week Nifty shut on a marginal positive note @ 5660.65 and up by 33.50 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed doji candle stick pattern, which shows sideways sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 5679.55 and made a low of 5610.75 and made a high of 5740.40 then finally closed positive at 5660.65. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold signaling that selling pressure at resistance levels are possible short-term. The close below the 200 day moving average (5743) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 5470-5750. The next area of resistance is around 5750-5800. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 5530-5470 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 5550 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5740-5800 and supports at 5470-5530. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 18440-18222 and supports at 19075-19200. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 11025-10890 and supports at 11430-11500.
SYNDICATE BANK LTP 118.75 View: Positive Oscillators Analysis: Stochastics and RSI are positive crossover and are in oversold territory on weekly chart reading, which indicate positive sentiment in stock momentum with decent volume support. Pattern Analysis: A clear bullish hammer pattern and support zone at 116, which indicates stock may upside till resistance level, is a confirmation of a trend in that direction. Technical Analysis: SYNDIBANK Ltd has bullish candle stick formation on weekly chart with decent volume support. Stock has closed strong above at multiple supports at 116-114 levels. Weekly stocastics has shown positive crossover into oversold territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market tilt is bullish with the close above strong moving average support at 116 on weekly chart basis. The next area of resistance is around 132-138, while 1st support hits at 116 and below there at 114. It is also heading towards resistance zone at 132.00. We recommended the stock initially above at 122 and declines till 117-116 with stop loss at 110 (closing basis) for a target of Rs. 132-138.
LTP 1290.65 View: Positive Oscillators Analysis: Stochastics and RSI are highly over bought territory and negative crossover from higher levels on daily chart reading, which indicates negative sentiment in stock momentum. Pattern Analysis: A clear bearish pattern and trend line resistance at 1326.00, which indicates stock downside, is a confirmation of a trend in that direction with volume support. Technical Analysis: On Weekly chart Tata Power has been trading below resistance zone at 1326 and below long term moving average (200 DMA) at 1300 levels, which indicates negative sentiment in short term trading and strong selling pressure around resistance zone at Rs.1300-1310, we expect the momentum to continue till multiple support at 1225 on the downside targets. And any genuine rise should see in stock price around resistance at 1310, which should be used as a selling opportunity for the potential target 1225.00. We recommended the stock at market and in the range 1300-1310, with stop loss below at 1330(on closing basis) for a target of Rs. 1225.00.
Information Technology
Tech Mahindra Ltd. has bagged a contract from Microsoft to set up a laboratory for video encoders used in deployment of IPTV solutions in the latters media-room. British Telecom will continue to hold its stake (24.4%) in Tech Mahindra Ltd. for the time being. NIIT Ltd. will partner with technology giant IBM to offer experiential learning to students.
FMCG
Britannia Industries Ltd. is planning a total investment of INR 2 bn in FY12 for setting up two plans in Orissa & Bihar. It is also in the process of reviewing the pricing structure of its products in view of the sharp increase in input costs. Emami Ltd. is gearing up for a major expansion in the healthcare products category with plans to enter the neutraceutical business besides expanding its pharmacy chain in the country.
Infrastructure
The National Highways Authority of India has shortlisted 114 highway construction companies and developers in the annual technical qualification (valid till Dec11). The shortlisted companies will be able to directly put in financial bids for the particular price bracket they have qualified for, without having to go in for the technical round. Positive, as this would speed up project award activities. ARSS Infrastructure Projects Ltd has secured a new work order for construction of road worth INR 246Mn. Positive as it improves the revenue visibility of the company. Man Infra got order worth INR 1bn, Positive as it improves the revenue visibility of the company. KNR Constructions has received an order worth INR 5.8bn from the Sadbhav Engineering for rehabilitation and up gradation of two lane roads in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Positive, as it improves the revenue visibility of the company. Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd is expected to firm up multiple JVs with foreign partners within the next six months to manufacture railwayrelated products and infrastructure. Positive, as this would lead to incremental business and gear up the company to capture new orders from Indian Railway to modernize laters infrastructure, including freight cars and coaches using state-of-the-art technologies and materials other than conventional steel.
-1-4-
JPMorgan Mutual Fund has decided to revise the exit load structure for both Retail and Institutional Plan under JPMorgan India Active Bond Fund with effect from July 7, 2011. Accordingly, the exit load charge will be 0.50% for any amount if redeemed within three months of allotment of units.
Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity
07-Jul-2011 06-Jul-2011 05-Jul-2011 04-Jul-2011 7.84 4.40 3.63 5.95 6.12 3.45 4.64 4.83 1.72 0.95 -1.01 1.13 56.23 16.18 48.18 91.74 18.15 17.43 20.21 36.68 38.09 -1.25 27.97 55.06
Purchase
Purchase
FII Activity
08-Jul-2011 07-Jul-2011 06-Jul-2011 05-Jul-2011 04-Jul-2011 Source: Accord Fintech 28.49 21.16 26.62 28.39 80.03 20.99 18.35 18.01 16.54 53.26 7.50 2.81 8.61 11.85 26.77 8.07 30.53 14.16 12.36 10.22 5.05 6.68 9.97 15.55 31.03 3.02 23.85 4.20 -3.19 -20.81
27-Jun
11-Jul
Tata FMP-32(G)
27-Jun
11-Jul
Close ended
Mr.Murthy Nagarajan
Tata FTF-2-A(G)
27-Jun
11-Jul
Close ended
Mr. Murthy Nagarajan, Mr. Bhupinder Sethi Mr. Richa Sharma / Mr. Hareshwar Karekar Mr. Manish Joshi / Mr. Amandeep Singh Chopra Mr. Bharat Pareek / Mr. Miten Lathia
29-Jun
11-Jul
Close ended
UTI FTIF-X-I(252D)(G)
06-Jul
11-Jul
Close ended
07-Jul
11-Jul
Close ended
SBI DFS-367D-3(G)
08-Jul
12-Jul
Close ended
DSPBR FMP-33M(G)
04-Jul
12-Jul
Close ended
05-Jul
12-Jul
Close ended
UTI FTIF-XII(369D)-(G)
07-Jul
13-Jul
Close ended
IDFC FMP-YS-44(G)
08-Jul
13-Jul
Close ended
05-Jul
13-Jul
Close ended
01-Jul
15-Jul
Close ended
04-Jul
18-Jul
Open ended
1 Week
1.02 0.26 1.85
1 Month
1.65 1.90 1.00
1 Year
9.07 7.39 6.93
BETA
0.63 0.80 0.68
ALPHA
0.01 0.00 0.00
Expense Ratio
1.81 1.84 1.91
Category: Largecap
Franklin India Bluechip(G) Principal Large Cap(G) DSPBR Top 100 Equity-Reg(G) 217.60 28.58 102.50 0.60 0.63 0.69 1.82 1.67 2.89 10.23 4.12 8.51 25.18 20.40 32.21 0.78 0.84 0.80 0.01 -0.01 0.01 1.83 2.28 1.85
1 Week
0.17 0.17 0.12
1 Month
0.79 0.79 0.53
1 Year
7.73 7.10 6.38
YTM
9.43 0.00 0.00
Expens e Ratio
0.14 0.80 0.61
Category: Liquid
Templeton India TMA-Reg(G) SBI Magnum InstaCash-Cash(G) Tata Liquid-RIP(G) Source: Accord Fintech 2457.52 22.27 2292.18 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.70 0.71 0.68 7.20 7.51 7.17 7.05 6.82 6.66 8.73 8.16 8.55 36.50 18.25 63.30 32.85 18.25 0.00 0.85 0.35 0.65
Category
Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Equity
Record Date
11-Jul-2011 11-Jul-2011 11-Jul-2011 11-Jul-2011 12-Jul-2011 11-Jul-2011
Gross
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.80 15.00
Corporate
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.80 15.00
Non-Corporate
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.80 15.00
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