DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011
MARKET EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 2

ENTRY LEVEL 1.4420

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3660/1.3410 (Entered on 06/07/2011) Await fresh signal, with a mild bearish bias. Await fresh signal.

1.4305

Sell limit 3

0.8330

0.8200/0.8080/0.7800 Await buy trade setup (neutral). Await fresh signal.

0.8400

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY SHORT 3 SHORT 1 Sell limit 3 SHORT 1 128.00 117.70 0.8900 1.1805

127.00/124.65/122.36 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 1.1000 (Entered on 11/07/2011) Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal.

129.00 115.70 0.9005 1.1805

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/GBP EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com

MIG BANK Tel +41 32 722 81 00

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EUR/USD EUR/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 Rises back into the confines of the old triangular consolidation.
EUR/USD resumed its bearish activity breaking out of the triangular consolidation pattern earlier in the week. This has since been reversed in what is currently viewed as a corrective swing higher. Back over 1.4376 will warn of a stronger recovery. Our short position favours sustained weakness to potentially unlock an accelerated impulsive (wave 3) into 1.3670 (61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 uptrend). Only a sustained close above 1.4653 and most importantly 1.4711/30 will lead us to re-evaluate. Inversely, the US dollar index has broken above 76.36 (23rd May high),

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

possibly confirming a multi-month w-shaped base pattern for an extension into 77.01 and 78.03 (50%/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 Decline). Back under 74.00 will begin to weaken the outlook again.

SPECIAL REPORT : EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. Please select link: REPORT
VIDEO

EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 2 at 1.4420, Objs: 1.3660/1.3410, Stop: 1.4305

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 Sharp reversal re-tests triangular support as resistance.
Short stopped. GBP/USD Broke briefly under the 200 day moving average. However, a sharp bout of strength has seen a return to the old triangular support, potentially re-testing it as resistance. Although we remain mildly bearish this return over the 200 day moving average returns us to the sidelines awaiting the evolution of structure that can assist us in our directional view. We also note that the 50 week moving average continues to contain the price on the downside, so await resolution there too. A reasonable downside target lies at 1.5345.

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal with a mild bearish bias.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
Another failed breakout.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011

USD/JPY has suffered yet another failed breakout above our second trigger point at 81.40 (multi-week triangle pattern). We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more cautious footing, watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bullcycle. We note that this cycle would be negated on a push under 76.25. To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close above strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high). The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).

USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 A further test of channel support is now favoured.
USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge, after failing to gain momentum last week following the minor beak over wedge resistance. Shorter-term structure suggests scope for a re-test of the channel support which has seen one test already. In fact, a break under this support is eventually sought ahead of a potential recovery. We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8330, Objs: 0.8200/0.8080/0.7800, Stop: 0.8400

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
Resumes downtrend.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011

USD/CAD unwound from oversold conditions, amidst key support near 0.9550. Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA). Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by a failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern. Indeed the bulls must recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing high/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March high) and 1.0000 (parity level). USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP In the meantime, a resumption of the larger downtrend appears possible.

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 Reactive bounce still weighed by exhaustion signal.
Short stopped. AUD/USDs reactive bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), is still weighed down by a DeMark exhaustion signal last seen at the May peak. Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator has also flagged exhaustion sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime, our downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), to unlock extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990. Back over 1.1012 will negate our bearish bias. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar,

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

after its recovery failed into key resistance at 1.3169 (61.8% Fib). The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath this level. The Aussie dollar has also weakend against the Japanese yen, after triggering a daily reversal pattern. The bearish signal is now pushing back lower into the multi-week triangle pattern. We continue to favour a potential downside breakout, which would signal further risk aversion in the financial community.

AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 A return towards channnel support remains favoured.
GBP/JPY has tested below the 61.8% retrace of the 122.36-140.03 rise seen earlier in the year and broken clearly under it. This now alters the near-term structure in favour of a relapse towards 122.36, thus also greatly weakening the longer-term recovery structure that we had previously expected. Focus remains on the daily bear channel that has been developing for the last three months. A lower high is now in place at 130.85 for a continuation of near-term weakness. Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, we continue to favour a return to this region and potentially a clear break under this support ahead of any potential recovery.

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 3 at 128.00, Objs: 127.00/124.65/122.36, Stop: 129.00

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 Further weakness anticipated while below 113.50.
EUR/JPY has likely completed an extended recovery from the 2010 low at 105.44 after reaching 123.33 and then failing to hold over 116.00. Recent trade has seen a break under the platform near 113.42/50, which also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average. The structure present since 117.90 now warns of the potential for a shallow retrace and a further extension lower back towards 105.44. This is however dependent on the perception of risk as partially dictated by periphery spreads versus bunds. We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 week moving average. This turns the longer-term outlook negative again. Although further losses are anticipated we are maintaining our stop on our final short unit at 115.70 to protect a portion of the profit already generated.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 115.70.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 Under 0.8848 weakens near-term bullish structure.
EUR/GBP has suffered in the same manner as other EUR crosses given the stresses experienced in the periphery bond markets. With this in mind, the break higher that occurred at the beginning of the month to 0.9084 may mark the end of the recovery structure seen since 0.8285, with a return to the 200 day moving average now favoured. This currently lies near 0.8665. It is thus our strategy to wait for a bounce higher to evolve for the creation of a lower high and the resumption of weakness. A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term bullish structure.

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 Under 1.1806 negates multiple bullish signals.
EUR/CHF had exhibited a number of bullish reversal signals in different timeframes. All of these were negated with the push under 1.1806. Given the continued uncertainty regarding periphery spreads versus bunds, we continue to view the downside as being vulnerable. With this in mind we next target the 1.1000 region. The close link between movements in EUR/CHF and periphery spreads versus bunds makes this pair a prime candidate for sharp moves as new information regarding events in the periphery becomes available.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND
Short 1 at 1.1805, Obj: 1.1000, Stop: 1.1805.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
Prints fresh highs.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011

Yesterdays break over 1577.57 now suggests a resumption of the larger rising trend is now in force, negating our prior bearish bias for the nearterm. Infact, while the 200 day moving average remains below the price action the trend is likely to be biased to the upside.

The next immediate target lies at 1600.00 from where a pullback of sorts may materialise.

Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Breaks over the 38.8000 ceiling.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011

Silver has broken back over the 38.8000 ceiling that we have been referring to in recent reports. This now warns of a larger corrective phase, with scope for a further rise to re-test the 45.0000 region

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact. We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.

Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Now above 38.8475 (26th May high), we next target 39.4825 (11th May high), ahead of 40.0000 (old psychological level).

Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011 Limitation of liability
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DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Material Interests
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

14 July, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15