Current and Emerging Trends in Aerospace
Current and Emerging Trends in Aerospace
Current and Emerging Trends in Aerospace
emerging trends in
the aerospace sector
How shifting priorities and developing technologies
are shaping the industry today and into the future
Author
Matthew Price
Client Manager
July 2018
About us
SNC-Lavalin’s Atkins business is one of the world’s
most respected design, engineering and project
management consultancies. Together, SNC-Lavalin, a
global fully integrated professional services and project
management company, and Atkins help our clients
plan, design and enable major capital projects, and
provide expert consultancy that covers the full
lifecycle of projects.
Driven by that dynamic, the two big aircraft & Whitney particularly exposed. In addition,
manufacturers – Airbus and Boeing – are both pricing pressure from the airframe equipment
looking at taking narrowbody production to manufacturers is driving a new wave of
unprecedented levels and challenging the consolidation in the supply chain.
supply chain to meet the demand. This is a
Recently, Safran successfully acquired cabin
signifcant issue, bearing in mind engine and
and seating specialist Zodiac Aerospace, and
interior manufacturing have both proved to be
United Technologies took on a $23 billion pursuit
recent production bottlenecks – then we could
of avionics and in-fight entertainment systems
see a monthly output of a combined 130 aircraft
provider Rockwell Collins – itself bolstered
from 2020 onwards.
by the 2017 acquisition of interiors frm B/E
Aerospace. In addition, Boeing has recently
The supply announced several initiatives to enter the
supply chain, developing auxiliary power units,
chain’s challenge actuators, seating and avionics, alone or with
partners. Aside from vertical integration, these
It’s not just the big two who face this supply
moves are driven by the frms’ desires to capture
chain challenge, both Canada’s Bombardier and
more of the maintenance and services market.
Brazilian manufacturer Embraer have begun
deliveries of their respective CSeries and E-Jet
E2 aircraft, which are both powered by variants Looking to the
of the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engines.
Also, new types from Irkut (MC-21), Comac next generation
(C919) and Mitsubishi Aircraft (MRJ) are all in
Aircraft development also continues, albeit at
fight test, with service entries scheduled for the
a slower pace. With the exception of the Boeing
next fve years.
777X, and potentially their as-yet unlaunched
As a result, the supply chain has made mid-market airplane , there is no other ‘clean-
signifcant investment to meet the proposed sheet’ aircraft currently in development by the
output hikes, with narrow-body engine big two, although a Sino-Russian collaboration
manufacturers CFM International, which is to produce a next-generation widebody is
a joint venture between US frm GE Aviation in the pipeline.
and Safran Aero Engines of France, and Pratt
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
What is also certain, is that engine co-operate on a future combat air system,
manufacturers are all investing in research and adding to other next-generation development
technology for the next generation of aircraft, efforts from Japan, South Korea and Turkey,
and in the mid-term all of them appear to be for example.
banking on the current turbofan architecture
to improve fuel-effciency. But any fuel-
burn savings from propulsion systems will Maintenance, repair
undoubtedly be driven by the employment of
increasingly exotic materials – ceramic matrix
and operational issues
composites, for example – to allow better What sets the new generation of aircraft apart
thermal effciency in the hot section of the from its predecessors are innovations in both
engine, or the use of a gearing system – as seen materials and systems – innovations that
on Pratt & Whitney PW1000-series engines – to pose both opportunities and challenges for
separate the fan and turbomachinery, allowing the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO)
each to operate at its optimum speed. sector, too. While most of the current crop of
narrowbodies feature conventional aluminium
On that note, Rolls-Royce is working on its
wings and fuselages, the newest widebodies, the
geared UltraFan programme, coupled with
Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787, both feature
development of a more effcient core as part
majority composite constructions.
of its advance research. Assuming there is no
dramatic change of course over the coming Although previous-generation aircraft have
years, thee most recent forecasts from successfully utilised composite material
Airbus, Boeing and independent consultancy – around 17% of the 777 is carbon fbre,
FlightGlobal Ascend predict deliveries of around for example – this proportion is set only to
35,000 to 39,000 passenger and freighter increase. While the properties of metallic and
aircraft over the next 20 years. Although composite structures are well understood, and
forecasts have some variance, they are broadly many airlines and MROs will have expertise
in agreement in terms of overall numbers. in the repair techniques required for both, it
is the increasing prevalence and scale of use
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
“Airbus estimates that over the Clearly digitisation will have to play a signifcant
part in helping to address this challenge, for
next 20 years, the maintenance, example, technicians using virtual reality will
repair and operations sector will be able to better visualise how components
ft together – enabling them to ‘step inside’
be worth $120 billion annually. an assembly or view it from multiple angles.
The knock-on effect means the And, of course, there are simple cost and time
saving improvements, such as paper manuals
aviation industry will need an becoming a thing of the past, and repair staff
extra 548,000 technicians – being able instantly to call-up relevant data
on a handheld device.
and Boeing predicts more
than 640,000.”
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
Drones as Maintenance
maintenance tools version 2.0
Unmanned air vehicles – better known as drones There are many other very positive
– allied to improved imaging technology, are developments in this area. Since 2016, Airbus
also fnding a home in the maintenance sector. has been developing the next generation of
UK low-cost carrier EasyJet, among others, has maintenance technology under its Hangar of the
trialled them to detect surface damage, such Future initiative, located in Singapore. Developed
as from lightning strikes, on its feet. Results from the outset as a response to lower-cost
showed that using drones reduced the time maintenance providers, this project aims to
taken to inspect each aircraft, and freed-up increase operational effciency through the
technicians for other tasks. As such, in 2018 application of lean methodology, plus state-of-
EasyJet began rolling out the system across its the-art technologies – with the latter embracing
network. The company has also been testing automated non-destructive scanning, the
3D-scanning technology and hopes to be able to introduction of augmented and virtual reality,
add this capability to its drone feet. and the use of big data to drive
predictive maintenance.
As a further sign of change in the sector, and a
willingness to embrace disruptive technologies Predictive maintenance is a key advance here.
and digitisation, German maintenance giant By capturing data and performing complex data
Lufthansa Technik announced in April 2018 analytics, it will enable the aviation industry to
that its Malta facility was testing a number of manage demand. As aircraft systems become
technological innovations including mobile 3D more sophisticated, and satellite datalink
scanners and drone inspections. coverage becomes more robust, aircraft are
becoming able to communicate 400,000
separate touchpoints, or parameters, in real
time. That data is invaluable – because time
and cost are of the essence. It’s being captured
faster than ever before, and the next step is to
successfully generate value from it.
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
Looking towards
scheduled for 2024; and half the feet of 36
aircraft will be gone by 2021 – studies by lessor
Avolon suggest the retirement age of aircraft
between 2012 and 2015 remained broadly the
electrification
same, shifting from 25.7 to 25.9 years. It’s worth While current propulsion technologies are still
pointing out, however, that the age of an aircraft wedded to the consumption of fossil fuels,
is less of a determinant of its retirement age, over coming years we will see the increasing
than the degree of utilisation. electrifcation of aircraft. And this poses another
Nonetheless, as Boeing’s 2017 Services Market set of challenges and opportunities for the
Outlook notes, the introduction of new aircraft sector – which can be divided into two strands:
into a feet can frequently be a catalyst for more-electric aircraft, for example, the 787
the operator to also upgrade the interior of or A350 compared with previous-generation
older models in its inventory. Airbus says that wide-bodies, and electrically-powered aircraft.
of the 37,400 new aircraft required, 26,540 Hydraulic and pneumatic systems – such as
are for growth and 10,850 will replace older- those for actuation or air conditioning – are
generation, less fuel-effcient aircraft – with already being replaced by electrical systems to
the company estimating that the market for save weight and improve reliability.
aircraft upgrades over the next 20 years will be Although we’ve seen incremental steps in this
worth some $180 billion. In addition, research feld since the frst Boeing 737 took-off in the
conducted by the Hamburg University of Applied late 1960s, the biggest advance most recently
Sciences in 2010 concluded that the upgrade was the arrival of the Boeing 787 in 2011. This
cycle for passenger aircraft is getting shorter, was the frst large passenger aircraft to use
resulting in a need for 38,000 upgrades projects electricity, rather than engine-bleed air, to
over the period to 2030. power the cabin air conditioning system. It also
featured electrically actuated brakes and an
electric de-icing system.
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
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Aircraft systems
So, with this increased demand for power, the traditional hydraulic and pneumatic systems,
generation capacity of the aircraft has also another revolution in propulsion technology is
markedly needed to grow. Each 787 can produce currently brewing: driven by both incumbents
around 1,000kVA for its on-board systems, and start-ups, a large number of programmes
according to Boeing’s fgures, markedly more with some form of electric propulsion at their
than previous-generation models. On-board heart are currently in development. These vary
power storage has also grown signifcantly. In from small general aviation aircraft and urban
the military sphere, that step-change has been mobility designs all the way up to proposed
matched, with the F-35 capable of generating commercial airliners.
around 400kVA, and a further step-up required
If an electrically-powered aircraft in the latter
in the future, as increasingly power-hungry
category is to be realised, Airbus believes that
sensors and systems are added to the platform.
it would require 40MW of power for the take
While greater use of electricity to power onboard off phase, dropping to 20MW during cruise.
systems removes the weight and complexity of As a step towards that eventual goal,
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
the manufacturer, along with partners Rolls- mass by around 20%; a huge challenge given the
Royce and Siemens, is developing its E-Fan X mature state of aircraft design, where signifcant
hybrid-electric demonstrator, which should fy in investment is required for minimal gain.
2020. It will replace one of the four engines on a
However, it is an area of research and
BAe 146 regional jet with a 2MW electric motor,
development that is maturing quickly and could
which will be powered by electricity generated
accelerate further. Assuming the uptake of
by a modifed Rolls-Royce turboshaft engine
electric propulsion is a case of when not if, then
mounted in the aft fuselage.
everyone involved in supporting aircraft – be that
at airports or in a maintenance capacity – should
Powering future flight start preparing now.
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
Not all the projects will be successful, however. Industry giant Airbus, which has a signifcant
But, the potential for substantial unit sales presence in the UK in Filton, Bristol and
presents a huge opportunity: eVTOL systems Broughton, North Wales, has recently issued
cannot operate in isolation and will require a warnings about the implications of a so-called
network of landing zones, charging stations, and ‘no-deal Brexit’ – asserting that increased red
extensive maintenance provision. Not to mention tape and delays to parts within its production
the booking technology and changes to airspace system could have a signifcant negative impact
management that will be needed to ensure on the delivery of fnished aircraft. Even with a
successful introduction and growth of drones; trade deal in place, it says, there will still be an
and most participants in the fedgling sector increased cost associated with its UK operation.
are agreed that drone operations need to exist
That analysis follows previous comments
as part of a larger ecosystem in order for the
from UK trade body ADS, which, in its evidence
segment to fourish.
to the House of Commons Business, Energy
?
and Industrial Strategy select committee’s
investigation on the effects of the UK leaving
the European Union, said that the imposition of
additional customs’ checks and bureaucracy
could cost the sector an additional $1.5
billion annually. This would pose a “signifcant
cost-burden” and hamper its “long-term
competitiveness”. Similarly, the industry has
been unanimous in its calls for an end to
uncertainty, which would allow it to at least
Implications of begin to plan with greater clarity for a post-
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
Although, so far, the use of ALM-produced issues of capital costs to set up such a capability
components has generally been restricted to and the time taken to print parts. The change
non-structural components such as brackets in process also promises to allow an effective
and fairings, and non-rotating parts in engines deconsolidation of inventory: parts will no longer
such as fuel nozzles and vanes, the uptake of have to be held in a central warehouse, but
3D printed parts will be rapid: by 2020 engine could be produced at, or much closer to, the
manufacturer GE Aviation estimates it will be repair centre.
producing 100,000 individual components
Production of interior components is clearly an
via 3D printing.
area where ALM techniques will grow. A cabin
“By 2020 engine manufacturer GE update can create gaps between new and old
Aviation estimates it will be producing components. Previously plastic spacer panels
would be produced via injection moulding – a
100,000 individual components via
relatively complex and costly process for the
3D printing.” small number required. However, thanks to
MRO organisations will also beneft from the 3D printing, Airbus has enabled small-batch
additive manufacturing revolution. Rather than manufacturing that is quicker and produces
maintaining costly inventories of spare parts, components that are around 15% lighter than
maintenance providers will, in theory, be able to earlier versions. Similarly, manufacturer ATR is
3D print components as required. And, as older using 3D printing to produce low quantities of
aircraft types become rarer, there will no longer cabin parts for out-of-production variants of its
be a need to maintain legacy tooling in case turboprop airliner family.
new parts are required. However, there remain
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Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector
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About the author
Matthew Price
Client Manager
Further Reading:
The challenges and benefts of the electrifcation of aircraft
James Domone
Image sources
Pg 4:
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transport/395500-uaes-strata-wins-contract-to-build-parts-for-boeing-777x
Pg 15:
https://www.deviantart.com/emigepa/art/A350-1000-648979667