Finance Assignment
Finance Assignment
Finance Assignment
Owing to the above volatility of the GBP/USD exchange rate, there can be the multiple factors
causing for this but some are as under;
Inflation
Inflation refers to as the rising prices of the commodities etc. Inflation is one the major reason for
the exchange rate volatility because it directly influence the currency value in the economy.
Inflation is inversely proportionate to the currency value (Aishworth, 2020). Low inflation leads
to the higher currency value because it increase the purchasing power parity of the people and
hence investors have sufficient funds to purchase the foreign currency and higher inflation
lowers the purchasing power parity of the people and hence lowering of the business in the stock
market. Inflation is mostly accompanied by the interest rates. There are multiple reason behind
the inflation in the country which turns the attention towards other variables which are the part of
the vicious circle of inflation in economy (Auboin, 2013).
Interest rates
Interest rate is another economic variable causing the exchange rate volatility. The high interest
rate always beneficial for the investors as it generates the more interest income and for the lender
it causes for the increase in the foreign capital. Hence exchange rates are directly influenced by
the interest rates in the country (team, 2020).
When an economy has strong economic, financial and monetary policy, this depicts the stability
in the economy. Hence it inclines the confidence of the investors in that economy. This in turn
increase the demand of the local currency which appreciate the currency value. So in this way
monetary and other economic policies plays a vital role in the exchange rate volatility (TWIN,
2022).
Tourism
Tourism is another factor causing the exchange rate volatility. For example if a US citizen visits
the UK then he will get the money transfer from USD to GBP. If the USD appreciates in
comparison to the GBP, more people will try to visit and hence the demand of the GBP will
increase and the exchange rate of GBP/USD will variate (Aishworth, 2020).
The failure of the Bretton Woods System leads the exchange rates to impact the international
business and trade. The exchange rate is the variable which is quite uncertain and affecting all of
the economies in the world as well as global trade. Because the prices at the international levels
are greatly impacted by the exchange rate variation. In today’s global village, every business is
dealing in international trade in different type of activities which indirectly make the production
of goods and services more expensive. Initially there was a free floating type of the exchange
rate regime where the exchange rate was set by the market forces like demand and supply but in
long run it was causing the economies to be bankrupts. So now the government take the
interference in controlling the exchange rate to touch the sky or lowering a lot. This is referred to
as the managed floating (Auboin, 2013).
(Doğanlar, 2002) suggested that the relationship between the exchange rate volatility and the
international trade is negative. This was suggested on the basis of some assumption like perfect
competition prevalence, a higher risk aversion or no use of imported goods or services etc..
(Giannellis, 2011) studied and found that there is a relationship of the international trade and
exchange rate volatility. It is found that higher the volatility in the exchange rate will lower the
international trade but when we remove the assumption of the risk aversion then this negative
relationship becomes positive for the traders who are more risk takers. It is also noted that
exchange rate volatility is cause by the economic, financial and monetary policy of the
government. She studied different countries like Czech Republic and Spain to assess the
relationship behavior of the exchange rate volatility and international trade. (Azim, 2014) they
studied the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade. They conducted a panel
study. They found that traders dealing in the international trade make the portfolio among
different business activities in different countries. This is being done to mitigate the risk in trade
due to exchange rate volatility.
In conclusion, the exchange rate volatility has the negative impact on the international trade.
Where there is high volatility of exchange rate in country, the business investors will reconsider
the business opportunities. Hence lowering of the business volume because of this uncertain
situation. However, there is another fact which is the risk. If the businessmen or traders are risk
takers then the relationship significance is compromised.
Question 2: Part A
Foreign currency exposure is the risk which is faced by every international trader or
multinational firms. This is should be known by them whenever they are dealing in more than
one currency. So the currency exposure is refers to the risk which company or traders face while
making the dealings or transactions in the foreign currency other than the domestic currency. So
before going to involve in the transaction of dealing with different foreign currencies, it is best to
assess the intensity of the risk associate with such transaction and better to adopt the risk
mitigation strategy. Following are the different categories of the currency exposures (Allayannis,
2001)
Transaction risk
Transaction risk is short term in nature because it is the risk which is faced by the companies or
traders only when they are about to deal in the foreign currency only for few transactions.
Transaction risk arises which the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the foreign currency
companies are dealing in, and the domestic currency. The upward movement or downward
movement may have the negative impact on the business profitability. Because of the sole
objective of profit maximization of the business, this transaction risk could impact the bottom
line, if the transaction is being made in a huge volume (Allen, 2003).
Translational Risk
As the name signifies that it is the risk which is arise when entering the records of the transaction
being completed in foreign currency. This risk is faced by the companies while preparing the
books of accounts and translating the transaction of foreign currency records to the domestic
currency in the books of accounts (Papaioannou, 2001). This is risk is associate with the
preparation of account for presenting them before the competent authorities or shareholders etc.
If the exchange rate of foreign currency and domestic currency moves to unfavorable direction,
this will directly impact the business profitability at the time of translation or vice versa. This
risk impact the company face value in terms of external environment. However, this risk seems
to be temporary because the exchange rate used to move up and down (Deventer, 2004).
Economic Risk
The third category of the currency exposure is the economic risk. This is the risk which prevails
in long run. It is the risk which largely impacts the business. The impact of this risk on the
business are huge in long run. The risk is associate with the economic policies dealing with
foreign exchange. Due to this economic risk has high level of the ramification on business. It is
different from the two earlier discussed. Those are short term risks but this is long term and it
impact the business in overall. It impact the business value, investment, cash flows, as well as all
other matters. If the companies are exposed to this risk, it might take the business to shut down
or near to shut down. But this type of risk can be mitigated by the different, operational as well
as the effective management strategies (Holton, 2003).
Question 2: Part B
Cross Hedge
Hedging is the risk mitigation technique which is being used by the investors to cover the risk
related to currency exposure. In cross hedging, the traders take the opposite position to shift the
risk to other partner. For example, if we take an example of the company where fuel is the main
raw material for production (Haushalter, 2000). As the fuel prices are uncertain in the
international market, the company would be doing future contract with fuel suppliers to buy the
fuel in future at a prices which is locked at the time of the contract. The company will buy the
fuel as per need in future at the set price regardless of what current prices are in the market. In
this way the cross hedging is beneficial technique for the companies dealing in the international
market or foreign currencies (Howten, 2008).
Currency diversification:
Currency diversification is the process of dealing in more than two currencies for the purpose of
investment and business activities. The main aim behind currency diversification is to reduce the
currency risk associated with a single currency. The international traders or multinational
companies used to deal in the different foreign currencies to mitigate the currency risk. In
overall, the loss in one currency due to fluctuation of the exchange rate is covered by the other
currency profit and hence overall risk is mitigated by currency diversification (Modigliani,
2005).
Question 2: Part C
An option is a contract which gives the holder of the option buy or sell the stock or currency or
commodity at a strike price, set in the contract, at a time in future on or before expiration of the
option. There are two options namely as call or put. Call option gives the right to buy an put
option gives the right to sell. International traders or multinational firms used to hedge the risk
using the option contracts rather than the future contracts or forward contract (Haushalter, 2000).
Companies or the international traders used to hedge using the options contract for multiple
reasons. But there is one main reason is that option contract gives the rights to the companies or
investors in comparison to the forward contract which is an obligation. Option contract differs
from the future contract in the way that holder of the option can exercise his or her right
irrespective of the expiration date while in the future contract, the transaction is fixed in terms of
strike price as well as the execution date. So option contract can be executed at any time or on
expiration as the holder of the option thinks fit for it to mitigate the risk (Papaioannou, 2001).
Question 3
The interest rate and other economic policy are the key drivers for the capital movement from
one country to another country. Where there is difference prevails in interest rates among two or
more countries, then capital flows from the country of lower interest rate to the country of higher
interest rate. So the stock markets of these countries behave accordingly. Because the difference
of the interest among countries directly impact the exchange rates which in turn impact the
country’s balance of payment and some other key economic variables (Allen, 2003). It is also
known that central bank is the key authority who can manipulate the economic variables like
interest rates and exchange rates to stabilize the situation of the country. So the intervention of
the central bank in the economic variable directly impact the stock or capital market. The
phenomena is same at the international level (Allayannis, 2001).
The other thing which can impact the international capital or stock market is the easing of the
operations. When a country, gives facilitations and relax the strict rules for the various business
activities, the investment begins to incline in that country. This flow of capital raise the demand
for the foreign currency and hence the capital market or stock market behavior is subjected to the
scenarios (Deventer, 2004).
Interest rate in short time span are seems to be volatile in the money as well as capital market.
The movement of the interest rates in the money market can easily be impacting the capital
markets. In the case, when the prices or the market value of the capital market instrument depicts
the present value of the discounted cash flow of the future revenues, whereby the interest rate
remains to be the denominator, then there is always a pattern of interest rates which moving in
opposite way in comparison to the share and bonds prices or vice versa (Deventer, 2004). In
addition to this, in longer time span the movement of the price in the capital market is greater
than the short term market. Now the question is if the interest rate remains the same the prices of
the shares, stocks and bonds also move same accordingly and with same intensity. It is noted that
as per the developed capital market predicts that the variation in the interest rates is
hypersensitive to the capital market in terms of prices of the capital market instruments. It is
logical, since the prices of shares, based on company’s prosperity, record a long-term growth
tendency. Consequently, any change in price of shares caused by changes in short-term interest
rates will be offset by a rise in price, as a result of corporate economic performance. Stock prices
react more to changes in long-term interest rates (Modigliani, 2005). Long-term interest rates rise
has also direct microeconomic impact. By and large, the real interest rates rise is associated with
a reduction in investments because financing costs increase and the returns on capital fall.
Investment reduction causes lower earnings, which in turn leads to dividend cuts or no dividends
at all. Lower dividends or no dividends are reflected in a fall of stock prices. In case of a long
reduction of interest rates is the situation converse (Howten, 2008).
Changes in interest rates directly affect also shifts in capital between short-term money market
and long-term capital market. A rise in interest rates makes equity investors to shift their
investment capital from equity market to fixed-income securities market. Moreover, after a while
they leave also the bond market for money market speculations. This is noticeable in increased
bank savings or rising short-term investments on money market (Allen, 2003). Conversely,
greater reduction in interest rates make invest ors to shift their investments to capital markets
because securities traded in capital markets provide higher rates of capital appreciation than
money market instruments. This fact is used also by central banks in their monetary policies
(„cheap or dear money“) in maintaining equilibrium between money supply and demand.
(Holton, 2003).
Question 4:
Information plays a vital role in every walk of life either it is personal or professional. In finance
profession, this is the key role to make the major decisions which decides the future of the
investments, traders or the corporations. There are a lot of information available in the market,
sometime it is integrated and some time it is not integrated. Therefore, there is a model which is
used to assess the impact of the information on the capital market and this is referred to as the
efficient market hypothesis. According to this model, the current prices of the stocks in the
market indicates the all available information which represent the fair market value of the stock.
However, like every other model, there are some assumptions to this model, which includes, a)
all the stocks in the market are fairly valued, b) the information available in the market is all
relevant, c) stock in the market nether are undervalued nor overvalued, d) and no investor can lag
behind the market by using different investment strategies.
As the shares and bonds are found to be the corporate financial assets, the availability of the
public information can affect the revenues from these assets as well as the market values of these
assets. However, if among money market and capital market, any of the market is more efficient,
this will the information of efficient market will be faster than the other market. So, the return of
the assets of such markets have more predicted power for the estimation of the future returns on
these assets.
The reason behind the difference of the information efficiency among the two market is the
investors play their part in addition to the international environment in the market. For examples,
the investors playing the bond market are seems to be more sophisticated as well as well-
organized while the investors in the stock markets are mostly private and has not access to the
all available information unlike investors of the bond market (Nguyen, 2016). So, when the
investors in the bond market have the more efficient information and hence they can process it
faster than the investors of the stock market. But there is another point that mostly the financial
analysts prefers the stock rather than bond investment. Therefore, research related to stock
market is being conducted regularly and disseminated to the investors but in the bond related
market research is not so regular and it is disseminated to the limited numbers of the investors
which are mostly the credit rating agencies (Azim, 2014). Furthermore, the financial analysts of
the stock have different predictions for a firm while the credit rating agencies have different
prediction for the same firm. Therefore, the prices of the stock should provide information
speedily rather than the bond prices. So, the stock market found to be more efficient in terms of
information in comparison to the bond market. Whatever the scenario is, the main point to
observe carefully is the lead-lag relationship in both markets. There are a lot studies conducted
on this issue and they found that the information in the stock market is not fully integrated to
come to a decision instantly. (Doğanlar, 2002) (Nguyen, 2016). Owing to this, it can be
concluded that the stock market has a restricted ability to incorporate the information in
comparison to the leading market of bonds. There is also a possibility that in bond market, one
information can be incorporated particularly in efficient manner while the other information may
not be incorporated in that way. For example, bond market may give the efficient information of
the variation in the probability of default but may fail in providing the efficient information
regarding the sales revenue. Therefore, the traders having market information are found to be
dealing in the bond or stock depending on the multiple factors including trading commission,
marginal taxes, liquidity and other alike (Modigliani, 2005).
For the purpose of the investigation of the impact of efficient market information on stock
market, we used the model of (Ngoc Hung Dang, 2018), they also assessed the impact of market
information efficiency on the capital market. For the purpose of the research, three companies
stock are being selected. These companies are registered with London Stock Exchange.
In a market containing the efficient information, the price of the shares or bond cannot be
projected so the return cannot be predicted as well for the distribution of the dividend. As per the
criteria, the efficient market hypothesis categorize the market in the three categories, one is weak
form of market, second is semi-strong form of market, and third one is the strong form of market
(Asteriou, 2009). In one category named as weak market in terms of efficiency, the current value
or price of the stock depicts the all information regarding the previous years. This pricing reveal
the all of information regarding accounting terms like sales revenue, dividend distribute, earning
per share, cost of production and all others alike.
The association of the price of stock and the related data including the sales revenue, earning per
share, book value and other alike is being studied in the previous research studies. It is found that
the profitability index has the impact on the stock prices of the different companies. It is also
found that the information relating to the EPS and BV of the stock is also has impact on the stock
prices.
This is the thing that information availability regarding the accounting items makes the rumors
and impact the investment decision and consideration of the investors. On the basis of findings of
(Ohlson, 1995) pecuniary facts including gadgets within the balance incidence then earnings
assertion or inventory charge is inspected. So, at that place was once effect of economic data
over inventory price. (Deventer, 2004) investigated the kinship about inventory virtue version
then income and book virtue about fairness into USA for the duration of forty years.
(Sharma, 2012) examined the alliance of inventory value or financial records including e book
charge about stock, EPS, distributed dividend because of the duration beyond 2000 after 2008 in
India. The outcomes showed so much it determinants impact strongly concerning inventory want
value then anticipate strongly according to stock market indices.
Studies performed with the aid of (Khanna, 2014; Deventer, 2004; Nguyen, 2016); confirmed up
to expectation inventory virtue depended actively over book charge yet profits yet it discovering
also agrees including consequences carried out by means of (Nguyen, 2016); (Khanna, 2014);
(Giannellis, 2011) or (Allayannis, 2001). However, this research did no longer characterize the
explanation degrees underneath the mannequin which includes e book virtue yet profits and the
model which include e book cost then dividends.
Based over the model on (Nguyen, 2016), dense empiric research conducted between rising
countries certain as like researches on (Sharma, 2012) within (Khanagha, 2011) into UAE,
(Omokhudu, 2015) within (Khanna, 2014) between India, Pirie & Smith (2008) in Asia
countries. These studies discovered the kindred into accounting data yet inventory worth but
special explanation levels. (Asteriou, 2009) accrued a sample concerning one zero one non-
financial listed corporations of Athens Stock Exchange along data out of 1995 in accordance
with 2004 yet usage on OLS. The end result showed as ratio concerning cause capital care of
assets yet ROS negatively have an impact on inventory virtue inasmuch as ROA positively have
an effect on stock price.
However, Vietnam Stock Exchange is modern resulted from yet has now not ample act referring
to in imitation of accounting data disclosure. (Nguyen, 2016) additionally attached the
mannequin regarding (Ohlson, 1995) because evaluating the kindred in stock prices and
accounting information. Data had been amassed from 430 listed companies concerning Vietnam
Stock Exchange for the financial 12 months over 2009. The consequences confirmed R2 is 43%
and 4 determinants inclusive of e book value, revenue through share, ROE, economic leverage
impacting on the inventory virtue however income through quantity and ROE positively have an
effect on or bear extensive statistics.
(Nguyen, 2016) also investigated the kinship within pecuniary data then inventory virtue over 147
listed firms of HOSE, a stock exchange of Hong Kong and 179 companies of (HNX) because the
period out of 2008 in conformity with 2014. By employing the certain results of previous study,
pecuniary records together with e book charge yet earnings positively affected stock charge
however higher effect of the inventory price belongs to the alternative of profit. The prices of
inventory since 3 months beside year end reflect whole than as at the 12 months end.
Based over stricture regarding literature, almost all studies look at the influence levels of eBook
virtue yet earnings over inventory price, but hardly ever research seem to be of the factors on
accounting records certain as money drift from working things to do by stock, consolidated
volume impacting concerning the stock price. That is why; that research investigates monetary
information of the monetary statements regarding stock value through the usage of the
information about listed corporations regarding Vietnam Stock Exchange (Sharma, 2012).
Regression
Descriptive statistics
Question 4: Part B
The above graph has represented the accounting information availability in the London stock
market. Information available in the market is mostly haphazard, it is very important to make the
information more integrated and well organized. This information then become more efficient
leading to the investment decision for the investors. The study findings are approximately in line
with (Ngoc Hung Dang, 2018) study and uses the same model. The empirical results of the
analysis shows that all of the accounting information available has the impact on the stock
exchange. The from the current analysis it is clear that accounting information like EPS and cash
flows are determining the capital market behavior by stock prices. In overall, it is clear that
whether it’s a bond market or stock market. Further research can be leading using the other
variable for the efficient information on stock exchange.
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