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NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY

PLANNING PROCESS AND FORMULATION METHODOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

1. The National Security Policy aims at developing and using the political,
economic and psychological powers of a nation together with its armed forces
during peace and war to secure national objectives. In other words it is the
nation’s plan for using all its instruments and resources of power to protect and
advance its national interests most effectively. The national security policy
provides a unifying concept to a nation’s foreign policy, economic policy,
defence policy and all domestic policies to operate within one and the same
framework. Therefore, the goals that any nation sets for itself must be consistent
with national aspirations as well as available means.

2. There is no institutionalised planning process for National Security Policy

in vogue in Pakistan, hence having studied various models of planning process
and the methodology, an effort has been made to evolve a format to assist
strategic planners in formulating one. This Chapter will focus on some aspects
like; One, various models of Planning Process being followed by developed and
developing countries; Two, methodology / evolution process for formulating one;
Three, Imperatives; Fourth, strategic appraisal, and Fifth, a possible format for
writing / evolving National Security Policy.

NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY PLANNING PROCESS

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Academic Model
3. The simplistic academic model for National Security Policy Planning
Process would involve a three-tier process. First tier involves departmental,
political and intellectual input. In the Second tier these inputs are collated by a
co-ordinating body, which also formulates security policy of the country. And in
the Third tier chief executive of the country would accord his approval. In the
recent history, security advisory bodies have been formed to advise the chief
executive independent of the co-ordinating body. In certain models these advisory
bodies have been acting as the co-ordinating bodies. The first tier inputs fed to the
co-ordinating body/advisory body are described in succeeding paragraphs. This
model is diagrammatically explained below: -

Tier 3 Country’s Chief Executive

Advisory
Coordinating Body
Tier 2 Body

Departmental Political Intellectual

Tier 1 Inputs Inputs Inputs

4. Departmental Inputs. These inputs come from various ministries like

those of defence, external affairs, internal affairs, and finance. For example in the
case of departmental inputs, foreign office would give a strategic appraisal on
external environment; interior office would provide input on domestic
environment including internal political situation; economic ministry would cover
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overall international and domestic economic situation. Input from security

agencies, intelligence agencies and special organisations in the form of strategic
intelligence appraisal on both the external as well as internal security scenarios
are equally important.

5. Political Input. Cabinet ministers, upper and lower houses and special
committees provide political inputs. This would largely include the thinking of
political organs / parties of the country and their assumptions, presumptions and
perceptions about national security in the wake of geo-strategic and domestic
environment. Such inputs should sufficiently help strategy / policy makers in
understanding the degree of consensus on issues of national security. In some
cases special committees are formed to critically analyse the security challenges
vis-à-vis political parties thinking / manifestos and public aspiration / reaction /
mood. A strategist should be able to build environment of consensus before
rendering a decision, which would be in the best interest of the country.

6. Intellectual Inputs. Inputs from think tanks, distinguished scholars

and strategic institutions, NGOs and media contribute immensely towards the
national security planning process. These inputs include independent appraisal of
global, regional and domestic environment or even specific themes. In some
scenarios, think tanks, strategic institutions and even distinguished scholars are
assigned to analyse and offer recommendations on important security issues.
Recently, NGOs and media have emerged as strong instruments for both
identifying public aspiration / interests and forming public opinion. Nevertheless,
strategist must be able to differentiate between popular decision (public mood)
and pragmatic decision (based on logic and national interest).

National Security Policy World Models

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7. Based on the academic model described above we will now see the models
of the USA, China, India, and Turkey. Without indulging in their description,
these are diagrammatically shown below: -

a. The US Model

White House

Security
National Security Council
Advisor

Departmental Inputs Political Inputs Intellectual Inputs

. State Department . Secretaries . Think Tanks
. Pentagon . Congress . Media
. CIA . Political Bodies
. Other Departments . Special Projects

b. Chinese Model

President Chairman CPC

Prime Minister

National Security Council

Departmental Inputs Political Inputs Intellectual Inputs

. Central Military . National . Think Tanks
Commission Congress (Headed by
. Foreign Office . Communist Military)
. Other Ministries Party . Special Bodies
. Security Agencies . Other Parties
c. Indian Model
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Prime Minister

Cabinet Committee on Security

Departmental Inputs Political Inputs Intellectual Inputs

. Ministries . Lok Saba . National Security
. Defence Services . Rajia Saba Advisory Board
. Raw and IB . Special . Study Centres
. Defence Intelligence Committees
Agencies

d. Turkish Model

President
. PM & Selected
Ministers
National Security Council . All Services
Chiefs
. Minimum Once a
Cabinet Year

Departmental Inputs Political Inputs Intellectual Inputs

. Ministers . Parliament . Institute of
. General Staff HQ . Committees Strategic Studies
. National Intelligence . Media
Organisations
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National Security Policy Planning Process in Pakistan

8. In the case of Pakistan, though no formal policy like the one being
regularly published in the US has been made so far, but here we would just
identify the available model. In Pakistan’s case, Tier 1 involving inputs from
various departments, political organs, and intellectuals remains the same.
However, in Tier 2 these inputs are received and collated by Defence Committee
of the Cabinet (DCC), who drafts and discusses / debates the issues. Having
developed consensus, it is then presented to the Chief Executive of the country.
After approval by the Chief Executive, the National Security Policy would be
published and copies sent to all concerned for developing their respective policies
and strategies. Another salient difference is that recently National Security
Council has been put in place. It is neither any kind of supra body nor it falls in
the vertical chain of policy formulation / decision-making loop. It is an advisory
council, which can be tasked by the chief executive for comments / advice on any
issue of national importance including national policies / strategies.

President / Prime Minister

National Security Council (NSC)

Defence Committee of the Cabinet (DCC)

Departmental Inputs Political Inputs Intellectual Inputs

. Ministries . Study Centres
. Senate
. Military . National . NDC/Think Tanks
. ISI and IB Assembly . Media
. Military Intelligence . Special . Renowned
Committees Scholars
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FORMULATION METHODOLOGY / EVOLUTION PROCESS

9. National Security Policy formulation is a complex as well as an interesting

process. Contrary to numerous principles and elements of military and operational
strategies evolved by military philosophers, there are no set principles or rules
defined for formulating NS Policy. Every Nation State and its Government
follows methodology most suitable to them. Further, it is influenced by the
strategic vision and outlook of the personalities evolving it. However, generally
accepted methodology would include strategic appraisal of environment in
keeping with the particular features of the time, place and personalities involved.
Nevertheless, the US Air War College (USAWC) has structured some guidelines
for strategy formulation. In this part of the Chapter some guidelines have been
listed, which would offer an approach and structured methodology for the
strategists attempting to achieve the coherence, continuity, and consensus that
policy makers seek in designing, developing and executing national security.

Strategy Evolution Models

10. Policy and Strategy Relationship. Policy is “a specific course of action

designed to achieve national objectives”, whereas Strategy is “systematic
development and employment of national power potential to secure national
objectives”. At national level National Security Policy is evolved. Based on this
policy, government departments / ministries derive their respective policies and
then formulate their ministerial or departmental strategies.

11. Basic Model of Strategy Evolution Process. Based on the above

elaboration, the systematic approach to National Security Policy evolution
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process, National Security Policy formulation methodology is diagrammatically

shown below: -

National Purpose
 Step-1. Formulate
National Security Policy
National Interests .
 Step-2. Formulate
Various National Policies
National Aims / Objectives
 Step-3. Derive
Strategies to Support
National Policy National Policies

Foreign Economic Defence Domestic Media

Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy

Foreign Economic Defence Domestic Media

Strategy Strategy Strategy Strategy Strategy

Land Strategy Naval Strategy Air Strategy

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12. Advanced Model of Policy Evolution Process. The advanced

Model of Policy Evolution Process is shown on the next page. This model has
three distinct features than any other basic model, which are (1) Strategic
Appraisal, (2) External (Global and Regional) and Domestic Environment, and
(3) Risk Assessment. The process of Strategic Appraisal, which is first in the
chain having determined National Interests, is being discussed in detail separately
in this Chapter and therefore not being explained here. The External and
Domestic Environment encompass numerous Forces and Trends, which impinge
upon the whole process at every stage and are tabulated in blocks on both sides of
the model diagram. Sufficient discussions on Global, Regional and Domestic
Environment are held during various studies of the course. Keeping these Forces
and Trends in mind during our debates, one can clearly identify the areas of
challenges and opportunities thereby enhancing or limiting our liberty of action
for policy / strategy formulation process. The third important aspect is of Risk
Assessment. Risk is defined as difference between the threats posed to a
country’s security by adversaries / potential adversaries and the country’s
capabilities to counter these threats. When adequate resources are available, risk
can be reduced and security increased, and when resources are inadequate, either
objectives have to be curtailed or resources / capabilities have to be developed to
blunt the threats. It is pertinent to mention here that as long as the resources are
scarce and allocation of resources to reduce the risk in one contingency does not
necessarily reduce other risks as well, the problem of policy will be risk
management rather than risk alleviation. How one wisely devices plan of actions
and capabilities in support of these plans is thus the heart of the matter.
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External
National Values and Purpose Domestic
Environment Environment
National Interests
(Forces & Trends) (Forces & Trends)

Strategic Appraisal
Alliances Policies
National Power Potential Polity
International
Organisations Diplomatic
Interests
Economic Military Groups
Globalisation
Domestic Bureaucracy

Economic Law
National Objectives
Economic
Information Conditions
National Security Policy
Technology
Social Needs

International National Security Strategy Public Attitude

Law
Media/Public
Calculated relationship between: Opinion
Coercion
Information

Intelligence National Style

ENDS MEANS
Objectives Resources
WAYS Ethics
Geography Strategic / Policy
Ideology
Sanctions National Policies
Foreign, Economics, Defence, Domestic, Media, etc Sustaining Base

Trans-National Strategies Environmental/

Threats Foreign, Economics, Defence, Domestic, Media, etc Natural
Disasters
Terrorism
Risk Assessment Terrorism
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13. Factors Influencing the Evolution Process. The following four

factors complicate the strategy planning process: -

a. First. The steps of the process are neither neat nor

compartmentalized but they tend to blend and flow from national
objectives to tactics. Terms as grand tactics, low-level strategy, and
high-level tactics are unnecessary if one bears in mind that the
strategy process is a series of interrelated decisions rather than a
group of loosely related planning events.

b. Second. The reverse flow or feedback system is the most

essential ingredient of the process, which necessitates changes in the
grand strategy, military strategy, operational strategy, and tactics.

c. Third. The global (external) and domestic (internal)

environment (forces and trends) with numerous factors have been
graphically portrayed in the Advanced Model of Policy Evolution
Process. These have greater influence by way of causing constriction
and twisting onto the process of planning national to lower level of
strategies, even to the tactics in the battle field. Most of these factors
are beyond the control of the strategist. The importance of any
particular influence is situational. For example, economic
considerations are highly significant at the grand-strategy step
because budget allocation accompany the assignment of roles and
missions. In the same manner, economic factors have a heavy impact
on military strategy because of the costs involved in developing
forces. However, the economic influence on tactics is only indirect.
External influences tend to constrain the number of options at each
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step of the process. Although economic factors are the most obvious,
other influences also limit the strategist’s options.

d. Fourth Factor. The fourth factor that complicates the process

revolves around the questions of where and by whom decisions are
made within the process. Who determines national objectives either
in a broad sense or as they pertain to a specific situation? Who
determines grand strategy? One might assume grand strategy would
be the purview of an organisation such as the National Security
Council, but is that true? What role does the Senate/Congress/Upper
House play in those decisions? How is military strategy determined?
How do the military services, the Office of the Secretary of Defence,
and the Joint Chiefs of Staff fit into the process? The same sorts of
questions can be asked at the operational strategy level, and even at
the tactical level. Problems exist even where one might assume that
the commander on the battlefield would make the decisions. An
example from the Vietnam War can be quoted, where tactics for the
air war over North Vietnam were often dictated in the White House
rather than the local commander.

IMPERATIVES OF NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY

14. There are certain imperatives, which act as the foundation and essentially
help carving the NS Policy. These imperatives can be grouped into two. First,
which are indigenous to a nation state and second are the external compulsions.
Indigenous imperatives are National Purpose /Values, National Interests, and
National Aims and Objectives. External compulsions would include the Trends
and Challenges, International Economic Environment, Global and Regional
Politico-Strategic Environment, and Threat to the State. A strategic appraisal of
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the prevailing domestic, regional and international environment and blending

these with the indigenous imperatives greatly help in evolving most viable
national policies and strategies to ensure security. A detailed discussion on these
indigenous imperatives is carried out during Study on Strategy and Statecraft.
However, these are being repeated in the subsequent paragraphs for the purpose
of refreshing our knowledge and developing further clarity, and laying emphasis
in the context of NS Policy formulation.

Core Values / National Purpose

15. Core Values. Values represent the cultural norms of the society or are
derived from them, and have a deep and firm grip on the individual and the
society in terms of attitudes and behaviour. Although, these tend to be rather
abstract, they are important for the determination of national security policy, since
values constitute the fundamental essence of a country and determine the basic
character of a society. Core values of a society or a nation are most cherished on
which its entire structure is founded. These are the values whose repudiation,
encroachment or abrogation would be construed by the people as a serious threat
to their society or nation. While evolution of our core values may have been
inhibited by our diverse plurality as well as colonial rule, they have been a part of
our religion and civilization from times immemorial. It is difficult to determine
the relative importance of specific values and, therefore, it is difficult to establish
accurately as to how these will influence the policies of the country. No doubt
values are the collective will of the people yet the pluralistic nature of our society
may accord different priorities to these values. However, the survival of the
nation as a sovereign political and democratic entity, prosperity of the nation,
equality, freedom and an honourable place in the comity of nations are the values
which will be dear to the majority of our people.
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16. National Purpose. The national purpose is in essence “the desire of

a people to order their lives according to their beliefs and values”. The state
is means of achieving what the people desire. Aristotle believed; “the purpose of
the state was not to extend its dominion or enrich its people, but to widen
knowledge, promote virtue and secure justice for all". National Purpose lays the
foundation for all the national structure as well as serves as the foundation stone
for formulating and deriving National Aims and Objectives. In another equation,
it impacts upon the national interests and objectives that a country seeks to
achieve. So, it has to be permanent in nature and be in sync with the potential of
the state or the potential of the state has to be built for that purpose. The purpose
of a nation is reflected in the State Constitution.

17. Elements of National Purpose. The National Purpose of a nation is

founded on six elements. These are: 1) The historical perspective of a nation, 2)
Socio political environment, 3) Beliefs and values, 4) Religious leaning, 5)
National power potential, and 6) Vision of the founding father of the nation. In
the context of sixth element, the vision of Founder of Pakistan, Quaid-e-Azam
Muhammad Ali Jinnah was “Pakistan would be a democratic state based on
Islamic principles of social justice”. From the nation’s values and enduring
purpose and an understanding of its current domestic and global needs, the
strategist would derive national interests.

National Interest

18. Interest – Definition and Implication. To simply define, National

Interest is "the general and continuing end for which a state acts." National
Interests are a nation’s perceived needs and aspirations in relation to its
international environments. On the other hand what is good for the nation as a
whole in domestic affairs is the public interest. However, the term national
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interest is loosely used to encompass both. These interests are expressed as

desired continuing end states. Interests determine involvement and reaction to
regional and global scenarios with a view to assure their protection.
Fundamentally, these are the basis for defining national security objectives,
followed by formulating national security policy and strategy, and then carrying
out the assessment and calculation of the power necessary to support that policy.
The concept of national interests at first seems simple, crisp clear and objective.
However, upon reflection, one realizes how hard it is to turn concepts of national
interests into working strategy.

19. National Interest - An Instrument of Assessment. Interests are a

good instrument to evaluate the reaction and responses of your allies and
adversaries. For example if Kashmir is our national interest what is China’s
interest in Kashmir? These are determined by governments and keep varying
from time to time. For example, Jimmy Carter believed that SALT-II was in
American interest where as Ronald Reagan believed otherwise.

20. Expressing Interest. In broad terms, National Interests encompass

defence, economic, political and ideological concerns. Indeed these are
fundamental concerns of the nation and are stated as desirable conditions. From
expression point of view, these are written without verbs, action modifiers, or
intended actions. A few examples are listed below: -

a. National Independence and Territorial Integrity.

b. A region free of internal conflict.

c. National integration or communal harmony.

d. Economic well-being.
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e. One of the US interests could be “Access to raw materials – Not as -

protecting sources of raw materials”. Like wise China’s national
interest might be stated as “resolution of territorial disputes through
peaceful means” Another interest can be defined as “Unrestricted
passage through international waters – Not as - securing Sea Lanes
of Communications (SLOCs)”.

21. Categories of Interests. In the US Model of NSS, national interests

have been grouped into four broad categories. Within these categories, these are
further classified into three degrees (may be more in the case of other nations)
according to their level/degree of intensity. Categories help us to organize
interests. These four categories of interests are sometimes referred to as “core”
national interests or “long-term” national interests from which the nation’s
specific, or more transitory interests are derived. The four categories are: -

a. Defence of the Homeland.

b. Economic Well-Being.

c. Favourable Regional / World Order.

d. Promotion of Values.

22. The breakdown or categorisation given above is not rigid but it is flexible
and artificial. One interest falling in one category will frequently interlock with
the other categories. Therefore, though each interest would have its set place in a
category, yet it may have to be reviewed in the context of others for the purpose
of comprehensive and coherent scheme of policy formulation. For example, while
"Unrestricted access to Persian Gulf Oil" could be the U.S. national interest
primarily falling in the category of "Economic Well-being" for the U.S. and its
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allies, it would also interlock with the category of “Defence of the Homeland”
and “Favourable World Order”.

23. Building on to the definitions and explanations given by Donald

Nuechterlein, a US scholar, the above mentioned broad categories of interests are
further elaborated as follows: -

a. Defence of the Homeland. It refers to “protection against attack

on the territory and people of a nation state in order to ensure
survival with fundamental values and political systems intact”. It
generally means physical security. It can also be said to be
“Protection of the people, territory, and institutions of the United
States against potential foreign dangers”.

b. Economic Well Being / Prosperity. It refers to the attainment of

conditions in the international environment that ensure the economic
well being of the nation. It can also be explained as “Promotion of
international trade and investment, including protection of private
interests in foreign countries”.

c. Favourable Regional / World Order. In the context of

Regional Order, it refers to those end states that promote conditions
that are favourable to the values and fundamental purposes of the
nation, such as stability in the region, and good friendly relations
with immediate neighbours and near abroad. In the global arena, this
implies the international security by establishment of a peaceful
international environment in which disputes between nations can be
resolved without resort to war and in which collective security rather
than unilateral action is employed to deter or cope with aggression.
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d. Promotion of Values. It relates to ideology and refers to

establishment of the legitimacy of or the expansion of the
fundamental values of the nation such as free trade, human rights,
democracy, etcetera. In the U.S. perceptions, it implies promulgation
of a set of values that the U.S. leaders believe to be universally good
and worthy of emulation by other countries.

24. Intensity of Interests. Intensity of interests help us to determine priority,

recognizing that without prioritisation, there is the potential for unlimited
derivative objectives and the consequent mismatch of those objectives (ends) with
resources (means), which are always finite. The US model considers three
degrees of intensity, which are VITAL, IMPORTANT and PERIPHERAL.
Pakistan and few other countries consider four degrees of intensity. In addition to
these three degrees, the fourth one is MOST IMPORTANT OR VERY
IMPORTANT and sequentially falls in priority between Vital and Important
Interests. These degrees of intensity are determined by answering the question:
What happens if the interest is not realized? Let us have a look at these degrees of
intensity one by one: -

a. Vital Interests. These are directly connected to the survival,

safety, and vitality of a nation. If these are unfulfilled, it will have
immediate consequence for core national interests. To preserve vital
interest, there can be no compromise or hesitation about going to
war. Vital national interests are relatively easy to define like security
as a free and independent nation and protection of institutions,
assets, people and fundamental values. If a certain interest is
declared as vital, it must be backed up by military power; otherwise
the opponent may consider it as a bluff. The vital interest transcends
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to the shade of survival interest where the very existence of the

nation is in peril. This condition arises, when there is an imminent
credible threat of massive destruction to the homeland if another
state’s demands are not met. Therefore, the nation must be ready to
fight a war in case the vital interests are threatened.

b. Most Important or Very Important Interests. These include

interests which if unfulfilled will result in damage that will
eventually affect vital national interests. These include issues, which
become so important to the nation’s well being that its leadership
will refuse to compromise beyond the point that it considers to be
tolerable. Potentially these interests can grow in the minds of the
nation until they seem to be vital. For the third world countries such
interests may include the economic prosperity, communal harmony,
national integration and resolution of a dispute with neighbour states.

c. Important Interests. These include those national interests,

which affect national well being of a nation or the world as a whole.
If these are unfulfilled, it will result in damage that is unlikely to
affect vital national interests. These will generally include issues that
a country considers important but not crucial to its well-being and
can be negotiated with an adversary and mutually advantageous
deals worked out provided the adversary is not engaged in
hegemony. If the opponent is a hegemon, compromises on important
interests will not calm matters and may even be read as
appeasement.

d. Peripheral Interests. These include interests, which are harder to

define and one may seek to compromise and are harder to define.
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Typically they may be somewhat removed from our borders and

represent no threat to our sovereignty. These are issues that are of
lower order of political, economic or ideological magnitude and do
not pose any threat to our sovereignty. If these are unfulfilled, it will
result in damage that is unlikely to affect vital national interests.

National Objectives

25. Definition and Implications. The national objectives are future state of
affair (or end state) that is considered desirable by the government, for the
achievement of which it is willing to spend time and effort. In a democratic state,
these are based on national interests and the approval of majority of the
population. It is important to know whether the achievement of a nation's aims
requires a change or whether it involves continuation of status quo. As national
policy is designed to achieve these objectives, that are: -

a. Promoted by the national governments.

b. Shared by a sizable or at least an important segment of national

population.

c. Directed towards or having considerable effect upon the people of other

nations.

26. Linkage with National Interest. The objectives will be developed for
each category of interest and in the similar fashion will be accorded the level of
intensity. Having identified the objectives, these must be ordered, for the tangible
and intangible means to pursue them. The importance accorded to each will be
driven by one’s experience, education and cognitive approach. The objectives
should be appropriate, finite, and achievable and should directly secure one or
more stated interests.
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27. Statement of Objective. An effective step in articulating an

objective is to attach an appropriate verb to each facet of the previously identified
national interests. The following examples will illustrate formulation of national
objectives: -
a. Example 1
(1) National Interest. Territorial Integrity.
(2) Objective. Defend territorial Integrity.
b. Example 2
(1) National Interest. Economic Well Being or Economic
Prosperity.
(2) Objectives
(a) Achieve sustainable economic growth.
(b) Alleviate Poverty.
(c) Invest in human resource development.
c. Example 3
(1) Interest. National Integration.
(2) Objectives
(a) Remove regional disparities.
(b) Ensure proportional regional development.
. d. Example 4
(1) Interest. Favourable Regional / World Order.
(2) Objectives
(a) Strengthen regional forum.
(b) Prevent intra regional conflict.
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STRATEGIC APPRAISAL

General

28. Strategic appraisal is one of the important steps in the entire process of
evolving NS Policy in the context of methodology. A critical and dispassionate
analysis of domestic, regional and global environment is done with a view to
identify challenges and opportunities. Finally, it would lead to drawing logical
conclusions, which would help tremendously in evolving security policies and
strategies for protecting and securing national interests. It must be mentioned here
that all the departments, government machineries, ministries, institutions, etcetera
must carry out Strategic Appraisal of their specific fields, so that pertinent
conclusions in the shape of challenges and opportunities in that specific field are
drawn. At the same time the agency / organisation formulating NS Policy also
carries out an independent Strategic Appraisal and is not exonerated from this
responsibility. A suggested sequential layout of the Strategic Appraisal is
described in the succeeding paragraphs.

Sort Out Interests

29. As a first step the National Interests should be sorted out by their
category and intensity using the general criterion debated above.

30. The degree of intensity of an interest should be determined before a

detailed analysis of threats to those interests is carried out. It is important that
interests do not become a function of a particular threat. If a government begins
with a threat assessment before a conceptualisation of interest intensity, it may
react to a threat with major commitments and resources devoid of any rational
linkage to that intensity. Rational cost-benefit analysis should not be allowed to
affect the intensity of interest. As a matter of fact, cost benefit analysis / risk
assessment should be analytically independent from judgments about how
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important a particular national security interest is. Such an assessment should

logically lead to further redefining the requirement of application of means to
different interests of varying intensities.

Analysis of Environment

31. The domestic, regional and international environments are examined to

ascertain the challenges (forces, trends, opportunities and threats) that affect
national interests. In particular, in assessing the relationship of an external threat
to a national security interest, we use the following criterion to relate the effects
on that interest: -

a. Immediacy in terms of time.

b. Geographic proximity.

c. Magnitude.

d. "Infectious" dimensions.

e. Connectivity - How many links in a chain of events from threat

(situation/event) to core national interest.

Challenges / Threats and Opportunities vis-à-vis Interests

32. The appraisal must be more than a listing of challenges. To be useful, an

appraisal must analyse and explain which and in what ways state’s interests are
affected, identify opportunities and offer recommendations to safeguard the
State’s interests. Identification of threats and opportunities greatly help in
formulation of strategy for promoting national interests. It may be pointed out that
while in the case of superpower or big powers it is usually a threat to their
regional or global interests, which constitutes a threat, in the case of smaller or
weaker states it can be a threat to their national security or even survival. So, the
threat definition and appreciation assumes greater importance in the case of
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weaker/smaller states. When it comes to opportunities, smaller/weaker states have

lesser capacity than big powers to create opportunities. Therefore, they have to
wait for them and avail them, if and when these arise. For this reason, the
leaders/strategists of smaller states need to show greater astuteness then their
counterparts in the big powers. The most difficult task for the leader of a
medium/small power like Pakistan is to appreciate that what is vital for the
country is most often not vital for the super powers and that it is they who set the
rules of the game which a small power or country cannot violate in the pursuit of
its objectives. That, in the last analysis the medium/smaller power has to adjust its
objectives to the world order established by the big powers and orchestrate the
prevalent environment in a manner that its vital interests remain protected.
Strategic appraisal will not be influenced by current national policy, but will help
identify change(s) required in the existing policies.

End State of the Strategic Appraisal

33. The appraisal should address some, if not all, of the following questions: -

a. What is current policy or precedent?

b. Who are the other actors?

c. What are their interests and/or policies?

d. With whom does the state have convergence of interest/policy?

e. What are the historical, political, economic, social, religious, and

military characteristics of the region’s environment that impose
constraints and/or opportunities for the state’ actions?

f. Are there feasible options to involve political, military, economic, or

informational elements of power to achieve the policy option(s)
under consideration?
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Format of Strategic Appraisal

34. Strategic Appraisal in itself is a miniaturised form of reappraisal of NS

Policy. In that every interest is analysed under the prevailing, obtaining or
perceived strategic, economic, diplomatic and military context. In the preceding
paragraphs, we have discussed the academic and conceptual frame work of
strategic appraisal. Now we can carve out its concise format, which is expressed
in succeeding paragraphs.

35. Stage 1: Analysis of the Environment

a. A review and analysis of global, regional and domestic environments
b. It should include: -
(1) Controversies over facts and intelligence.
(2) Convergence and divergence of interests with major actors
and regional players in the international arena.
(3) Projections of future trends
36. Stage 2: Challenges and Opportunities

a. Identify and Assess Challenges to the Interests (some of the

challenges are threats as well as opportunities): -

(1) World Order Trends – Political (Threats and

Opportunities).

(2) Economic Trends (Threats & Opportunities).

(3) Defence Trends – Military (Threats & Opportunities).

(4) Promotion of Values Trends (Threats & Opportunities).

b. Constraints and opportunities in domestic system.

c. Assess the relationship of threat to each national interest in terms of :

(1) Immediacy in terms of time.

 26

(2) Geographic proximity.

(3) Magnitude.

(4) Linkages of threats and their infectious dimensions.

(5) Connectivity – How many links in the chain of events from

threat (situation / event) to core national interests.
d. It may be remembered that opportunities which are inconsistent with
objectives or seem to be beyond means available, thus can not be
pursued, should not be considered as such. Similarly the objectives
that lie outside the realm of available resources/means or
opportunities, should not be developed.

37. Stage 3: Reappraisal of the Current National Policy. In the light of

threats and the opportunities, carry out a reappraisal of national interests and the
national policies in vogue. Identify the areas of agreements and disagreements,
and give reasons for both.

38. Stage 4: Policy Recommendations. This is the most important part of

the Strategic Appraisal. This step is built onto Step 3, where assessment of the
current policies has been carried out. Now is the time that recommendations are
offered to change the existing policies concerning political, economic, military,
and media, etc. The recommended changes must protect national interests against
the threats, while exploiting the opportunities. Alternately, altogether fresh
policies can be recommended.
 27

MANIFESTATION / FLOW OF POLICIES AND STRATEGIES

EXAMPLES

39. Having understood the process and methodology for evolving NS Policy,
let us now have a look at the actual manifestation of sequential flow of policies
and strategies. Two examples i.e. of the US Flow of Policy / Strategy and a
Possible Model for Pakistan are broadly described in succeeding paragraphs. The
US model has been extracted and derived from the US QDR (Quadrennial
Defence Review), whereas the Possible Policy / Strategy Flow for Pakistan has
been contrived by applying the US model as well as the methodology for
evolving NS Policy explained in this Chapter.

40. Example 1: The US - Flow of Policy / Strategy

a. US National Interest - Favourable regional and

Global Order

b. US Security Policy - Engagement

c. US Security Strategy

(1) Shape international environment

(2) Respond to full spectrum threat

(3) Prepare now for an uncertain future

d. US Military Strategy

(1) Strategic Agility - For timely response

(2) Overseas Presence - Promote stability and shape

environment

(3) Power Projection - Swift response to crisis

 28

(4) Decisive Force - To overwhelm an adversary

(5) Force Modernisation - To prepare for the future

conflict

41. Example 2: A Possible Policy / Strategy Flow for Pakistan. This

example of a possible sequential flow of policy and strategy for Pakistan is
described in the table.

Step Policy / Explanations

Strategy
Flow
Step 1 National As an independent sovereign state ensure security,
Purpose prosperity and freedom to pursue our culture, religion and
national aspirations
Step 2 National Safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity ensuring
Interest prosperity and well being of the masses
National Ensure Resolve Maintain Ensure
Aims and defence of Kashmir adequate peace and
Objectives the country Issue balance of tranquillity
power
Step 3 National  Deter  Active  Active  Avoi
Policy war internation role in the d war
al support Region
 Defeat  Econ
aggression  Suppo  Strong omic well
rt freedom military being
struggle capability  Inter
 Internat nal peace
ional and
economic
stability
Step 4 Instruments  Foreig  Foreig  Foreign  Forei
n policy n policy policy gn policy
 Defen  Defen  Defenc  Defe
 29

ce Policy ce policy e policy nce policy

 Econo  Econ
mic policy omic
policy
Step 5 National Guidelines to ministries in order to achieve given
Strategy objectives

39. A proposed Format for Evolving National Security Policy is attached as

Annex A. This may be modified by the authors. Other formats like US NSSP –
2002/2006 may be studied and adopted, where convinced.

CONCLUSION

40. The National Security Policy Planning Process is an intricate calculus. It is

not a simple analytical procedure in which changes on one side of formula
automatically produce or suggest changes on the other. Also it must be kept in
mind that the conclusions from one stage / step do not produce axioms and
corollaries for the next stage / step in the process. The conclusions / deductions
from each step need to be logically analysed and interfaced with each other with a
view to reach at final conclusion. This would greatly help in arriving at a policy,
which would cater for all the aspects impinging upon the security policy process.

41. It is also pertinent to mention here that a professional policy and strategy
planner should not get influenced by any elite / interest group who would strive to
impose their will. Rather his strategic orientation should be neutral / unbiased of
any such event and he should endeavour to build consensus through an interplay
of interests and ideas.
 30

ANNEX “A”

PROPOSED FORMAT FOR EVOLVING

NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY

In the preceding Chapters, elaborate discussion on the NS Policy

Formulation Methodology / Evolution Process, imperatives, and Strategic
Appraisal has been carried out. In this Annexure, a Format for Evolving National
Security Policy has been added, which would illustrate step-by-step approach but
without any further elaborate explanation of various terms / notions and the steps
involved in the process. The suggested format / sequence is based on the
Advanced Model of Strategy Flow Chart and described in the succeeding
paragraphs. Remember that the words like Step 1, 2, 3 --- have been used in the
proposed format for the purpose of explaining the chronology, otherwise these are
not to be written as such in any formal NS Policy document.

NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY

General

1. One or two paragraphs of general nature as an introduction to the National

Security Document should be written. It should essentially cover the aspects of
internal and external threats in broader context as well as aspect of Nationhood
and Basis of Ideology.

Step 1: National Core Values / Purpose and National Interests

2. National Purpose

a. Write down the National Purpose, which is derived from the State
Constitution or as agreed in the State Policy.
 31

b. National Purpose is 1) Raison d’etre – reasons to be a nation, 2)

desire / will of the people to lead their lives according to their shared
common values and beliefs, 3) non-verbal consensuses of major
values of the people, or 4) a phrase/statement depicting the
shared/common beliefs and values, usually expressed in the
preamble to the constitution.

3. National Interests

a. List out national interests, which are being pursued by the state as
per its enunciated policy. In the case of NSS being evolved for the
first time, fresh interests need to be evolved taking into
considerations the influence of domestic environment and resources
available.

b. National Interest is: -

(1) Interpretation of National Purpose, in the prevailing

conditions.

(2) Assessment of future prospects.

(3) General and continuing ends for which a state acts.

(4) A justification for political action.

c. Interests should be grouped under various categories and also

prioritized according to their intensity.

Step 2: Determination of National Objectives

4. National Objectives are derived from the National Interests. In other term,
these are broad goals designed to support national interests.
 32

5. National objectives are defined as targets, conceptual or physical, whose

accomplishment would lead to progressive attainment of national aims.

Vision

6. It is an image of desired future outcome and direction to that outcome,

which will enable the nation to shape and control the change to its benefit. It
provides direction to both formulation and execution of policy. A government
does not have unlimited time and resources for promotion of policies to attain all
the national objectives. Therefore, the Chief executive shall pick up few targets,
for which when achieved, he would desire to be remembered for. Their
desirability is determined by reference to one’s view of the national interest, cost
consideration, and their feasibility is determined by reference to the availability
of mobilized power, and the constraints and opportunities.

7. Vision statement must be :-

a. Clear and unambiguous
b. Paints a vivid picture
c. Memorable and engaging
d. Reflecting aspirations that are realistic.
e. Aligned with the national values and culture
8. Example. “A self sufficient, industrial, developed nation complete with an
economy that will be eightfold stronger by year 2020” (Malaysia 2020)

9. National Scenarios are also debated and perceived in this stage. This is
precisely done to determine which scenario is desirable, for example: -
a. Scenario 1 (Most Desirable) – Internationally well accepted
moderate progressive state.
b. Scenario 2 (Most Dangerous) – Defaulter or rogue state.
 33

Step 3: Strategic Appraisal – Analysis of Environment

10. The format for Strategic Appraisal has been explained in preceding
paragraph 33 to 37.

Step 4: Assessment of Power Potential and Resources

11. This is a very important but tricky stage where realistic and dispassionate
assessment of latent or potential power is carried out. It is here that the power
potential and resource capacity will guide and lead towards correctly
prioritization and segregation of national aims and objectives.

12. The elements of national power potential include National Determinants

and Social Determinants. The National Determinants are Geography, Population
and Natural Resources), whereas the Social Determinants encompass Political
Stability, Economic Sustenance, Military System. Informational Capacity. The
ability of psychological power projection is yet another element.

13. Availability of actual or mobilized power, according to investments in

usable policy tools or instruments is assessed for actual application as per the plan
and priority. These instruments are military forces, covert action, information and
exchange programs, foreign aid, etc.

14. Cost of using resources is worked out, both in terms of absolute

expenditures and of the opportunity costs, i.e. the impact on other domestic and
foreign policy goals.

Step 5: Policy Framework

15. The prioritized list of national issues confronting the nation at the time of
formulation of National Security Policy forms the basis of policy framework.
Keeping in view the relationship of ends to means or power to objectives and
available time, various policy options or courses of action are worked out for each
 34

issue (see chart below) and these policy options are analysed and prioritised in
the light of following factors:-
a. Relationship of ends to means.
b. How best available resources can be applied to achieve the policy
objectives.
c. Time frame for implementation of various courses. Life span of a
government is short term. Long term plans must be analysed in the
light of time and effort required to generate resources, effects of
evolving international environment and political ownership.

Issue Option-1 Option-2 Option-3 Adopted

Defence Deterrence Defence Det&Def Option-3
Internal Reconciliation Use of force Development Option-1
security
Kashmir Accommodation Regression Relegation Option-1
Economy Agriculture Industry Services combination

16. Policy Statement. It is a carefully prepared expression on the selected

issues, representing govt’s view on each issue, while advocating a particular
course of action. It reflects aspirations and responsibilities of govt. e.g. Chief
Executive’s vision “ social uplift of masses through knowledge based economy,
while promoting soft image of the nation” may be translated through policy
framework as follows:-
a. Educate and train future generation of Pakistan through an integrated
system of education by bringing religious and modern schools closer
alongside vocational training institutions to produce useful and
 35

productive members of society contributing towards economic

growth.
b. Dynamic and resilient economy with sustainable high growth
through diversified economic base seeking self reliance with
adequate attention towards social uplift of masses.
c. Promote soft image of country by developing Tourism in a
systematic manner, position it as a major engine of economic growth
and to harness its direct and multiplier effects for employment and
poverty eradication in an environmentally sustainable manner.

Step 6: Risk Assessment

17. This step is vitally important because here the perceived national objectives
are weighed in relation to the resources available. A country like Pakistan will
never have resources sufficient enough to ensure complete success of the strategy.
If the risk is determined to be unacceptable, the strategy must be revised by way
of either, reducing the objectives, or changing the concepts, or increasing the
resources, or reducing the threat. Theoretically risk assessment is done at every
stage of NSP Formulation. However, it becomes vital to embed it in step 5,
where selection of various options are done after risk assessing them.

18. Criteria – Risk Assessment

a. What are you trying to achieve?
b. How does this fit in the (prioritised) list of national objectives
(seeing impact of today’s action on other long term objectives)?
c. Can you make enough means available to ensure achievement of laid
down objectives?
d. Are the costs of achieving desired effects worth the benefits? (degree
of certainty of judgment)
 36

e. Can sufficient support (domestically of internationally) be built for

the policy under consideration?
f. Have a satisfactory answer to “What if”?

Step 7: Policy Guidelines

19. The policy guidelines suggest the principles for conduct of national policy
which lays a broad mandate for acceptable conduct and are subject to
interpretation by concerned ministries as physical targets. The policy guidelines
are formulated on the basis of bottom up approach as the concerned ministries
provide input to NSP in keeping with the policy framework. These may be
expressed in executive way with verb at the beginning or as action plan indicating
the strategies to put the policy into action. Example at Appendix 1.

Conclusion

20. Concluding remarks for the National Security Policy.

Alternate Format – US NSSP

21. General paragraph.

22. National Policy: Broad layout of the national policy spelling out a kind of
strategic concept at national level.

23. Strategy to Advance National Interest-1: Pick up first national interest,

identify immediate security issues, evaluate current strategy success/failure and
give long term / mid term strategy.

24. Strategy to Advance National Interests-2, 3, 4 … (Follow as explained in

paragraph 23 above).

==========================================================
 37

APPENDIX -1

EXAMPLE – POLICY / POLICY GUIDELINES

1. Policy Statement. Educate and train future generation of

Pakistan through an integrated system of education by bringing religious
and modern schools closer alongside vocational training institutions to
produce useful and productive members of society.
2. Policy Guidelines. To attain national objective, the govt will:-
a. Achieve universal primary education through formal and non
formal approaches.
b. Develop technical and vocational education in the country for
human resource development commensurate with the needs
of industry at home and abroad.
c. Disseminate Qur’anic principles and Islamic practices in the
process of education as well as training.
d. Expand basic education qualitatively and quantitatively
ensuring free access to every child.
e. Diversify system to transform it from supply oriented to
demand oriented production of productive and useful citizens.
f. Develop uniform system of education on the basis of
international / national demands.
g. Promote public and private sector partnership.
h. Bridge the existing gulf between formal education and Deeni
Madaris system through integrated approach.
 38

ANNEX “B”

NOTIONS OF STRATEGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY OPTIONS

Accommodation

2. It is a shade lower than reconciliation and compromise and or shade above

surrender. One-sided concessions are made in order to preserve a part of what is
threatened, to avoid war.

Alliances / Super Power Guarantees

3. When more than one state has a common security perception, alliance can
be formed. It is a treaty binding two or more independent states to come to each
other’s aid with armed forces under circumstances specified in the article of the
treaty. Weaker nations tend to form alliance with stronger nations to acquire super
powers’ guarantees for their security, which the latter could provide using all
kinds of instruments.

Appeasement

4. The reduction of tension between the two sides by the methodical removal
of the principal causes of conflict and disagreement between them.

Collective Defence

5. States pursue collective defence by forming alliance of like-minded states.

Collective defence means that states agree to come to the defence of any other
state in their alliance if they are attacked.

Collective Security or Co-operative Security

6. Collective Security. In its ideal form, Collective Security is a system

in which all states join together to punish any state that carries out an aggressive
 39

act. The UN is the closest example of a Collective Security mechanism although a

pure collective security mechanism does not exist even today.

7. Cooperative Security. Cooperative Security can be pursued by

individual states or alliances. It involves adopting mutual, cooperative measures
that when carried out by each side improves the security of each side. It is
designed to ensure that organized aggression cannot start or be carried out on any
large scale. It seeks to devise agreed measures to prevent war; for example,
situation monitoring, observation of military manoeuvres, and so on.

Confrontation / Aggressive Assertion

8. This implies the posture of the state bordering on acts of coercion and
hostility. This is a viable policy option for states with superior or equivalent
power states.

Constructive Engagement

9. Engagement of the target state in dialogue from position of equality on

issues of bilateral friction or interest. It is the best form of policy option for a state
that is genuinely interested in resolving disputes or wants to buy time for
achieving a designated power goal.

Entente

10. The two sides recognize a similarity of views and interests, but the
understandings are limited to certain issues and the improvement in relations
stops short of an alliance.
 40

National Security

11. As a concept it means “The ability of a nation to protect its internal values
from external threats” or “The capacity of society to enjoy and cultivate its
culture and values”.

12. National security comprehends the maintenance of political independence

and territorial integrity as well as internal stability and national unity. It
enunciates policies to guard against external threats of aggression and subversion,
and also internal dangers of conflict and chaos with a view to ensure the condition
in which the national interests of a state are preserved and promoted.

Rapprochement

13. One or both sides express a desire to search for agreements. It is a

condition antecedent to entente and applies only to the beginnings of conflict
reduction and agreement between previously hostile nations.

Reconciliation and Compromise

14. Overtures of amity after a period of confrontation, this policy aims at

normalization of relations with the adversary without compromising sovereignty
and vital interests of the state in order to gain time. Reconciliation is considered
to be negative in shade and it has an in-built element of compromise. This policy
is adopted by weaker nations who may be forced to reconcile to buy time.

Regression

15. To go back on ones policy stand. This is the worst form of policy
formulation and signifies capitulation and perhaps compromising of national
interests. This is the most undesirable option exercised by weak states under
extreme coercion.
 41

Security

16. The concept of Security implies different connotations from nation to

nation. However, one perception is very clear which means “Absence of fear that
vital values will be attacked, and a

n environment, a condition, a feeling “of being secure (no threat) to practice one’s
values.” It is also termed as “absence of threat, or conflict-free environment or the
ability to prevent conflict”. In another perception, security implies “the ability of
a nation to protect its internal values from external threats”.

Few other definitions or explanations of the term “Security" are as under: -

a. “Security, in an objective sense, measures the absence of threats to

acquired values: in a subjective sense, it measures the absence of fear
that such values will be attacked.”

- Arnold Wolfers

b. “It focuses on the underlying unity of the internal & external

activities of states by explicitly recognizing that external behaviour
is an integral part of the total behaviour pattern of the national
system.”

- Roseerance, 1963

c. A nation has security, “When it does not have to sacrifice its

legitimate interests to avoid war, and is able, if challenged, to
maintain them by war”.

- Walter Lippmann
 42

Strategy

17. Strategy is defined as, “The art and science of employing national power
under all circumstances to exert desired degree and type of control over the
opposition through threat, force, indirect pressure, diplomacy and other
imaginative means, thereby satisfying national security interests and objectives”.

18. Strategy is called managing the ends, means and ways. It describes the way
(strategy) in which ends (objectives) are proposed to be achieved, applying
resources (means) at the disposal of the nation. Strategy thus encompasses both
goal setting and resource management.

STRATEGIC THEORIES

Theory of Balance of Power and Soft Power

19. Balance of Power. The dictionary meaning of the word ‘power’ is

“the ability to do anything physical, mental, spiritual, legal etcetera”. The scope
of this word in strategic theory is equally vast. It would by no means be
visualized as confined to military force alone. Power means the strength or
capacity that provides “the ability to influence the behaviour of other actors, in
accordance with own objectives” and this concept is the building block for
understanding and developing strategy. It takes into account all types of forces
available to the two opponents. On the international level, it covers multinational
balances of power between opposing groups. The only time in the history of the
world we have had any extended periods of peace is when there has been balance
of power. It is when one nation becomes infinitely more powerful in relation to its
potential competitor that the danger of war arises. So a world in which the US is
 43

powerful, it will be a safer world and a better world if we have strong, healthy
US, Europe, Soviet Union, China, Japan each balancing the other.

20. Soft Power. Soft power “is the ability to achieve desired outcome in
international affairs through attraction rather than coercion. It works by
convincing others to follow, or getting them to agree to …. that produce the
desired behaviour”. Soft power can rest on the appeal of ones ideas or the ability
to set the agenda in ways that shape the preferences of others. Joseph S. Nyre Jr
in his Book published in 1990, titled Bound to Lead, Changing Nature of
American Power has stated, “If a state can make its power legitimate in the
perception of others and establish international institutions that encourage them to
channel or limit their activities, it may not need to expend as many of its costly
traditional economic or military resources”.

Theory of Détente

21. Theory of Détente implies “relaxation of acute tension that carries with it
danger of war”. It may be accompanied by reduction of hostile behaviour but
does not settle the prevailing disagreements or remove the underlying conflicts of
interest.

22. Theory of détente is an outcome of strategy of deterrence. In its application

to super powers, it refers to relaxation of the tensions, which have been
periodically cropping up between them. The theory of détente is also applicable to
those smaller nations, which have been maintaining deterrence against their
opponents. The field of détente encompasses both political and military element.

23. The strategy of détente is adopted by nations as a transitory step. One of

the basic essential in the strategy of détente is the military force, which provides
the strength to undertake successful negotiation without compromising on the
fundamental national interests.
 44

Theory of Deterrence

24. The fundamental characteristic of deterrence is that its use should pose an
unacceptable risk to the opponent. Its success lies in achieving the objective
without actually resorting to its use. Once put into use it no more remains
deterrence. At this point it is quite proper to ask: “what happens if deterrence
fails?” The answer is that strategy of deterrence should not be adopted in
isolation.

25. Deterrence measures are adopted by one state or a group of states,

discouraging hostile action by another state or group of states, by arousing in the
other the fear of a counter action effective enough to be unacceptable to the party
to which such measures are addressed. Since, deterrence is primarily based on the
perception of ones capability by the target state; it may or may not succeed.
Hence, effective deterrence has to be credible. Credible deterrence is an effective
safe guard with smaller states against a threat by stronger adversaries. Deterrence
should have following elements: -

a. Denial and Retaliation. The threat of retaliation both in the

conventional and nuclear field should form the military dimension of
deterrence.

b. Domestic Policy and Deterrence. Projection of national image

through an effective domestic policy and the measures adopted to
project an image of a cohesive and determined nation could enhance
deterrence.

c. Diplomatic Policy. Showing obvious interest in dialogue and

negotiating while simultaneously projecting an image of effective
military deterrence
 45

d. Military Image. An effective military that can project an image of

being efficient and combat ready is necessary to deterrence.
Deterrence works on what the enemy perceives one to be.

Theory of Graduated or Flexible Response

26. This form of strategy is usually an outcome of successful deterrent as it

comes into play during the period when deterrence is sustained and a state of
detente prevails. Nations maintaining a deterrent, if involved in a conflict with
each other will attempt to solve it through a strategy of graduated or flexible
response.

Theory of Limited War

27. Limited war is a conflict short of general war to achieve specific political
objectives, using limited forces. Limited war is an armed conflict in which at least
one protagonist intentionally restricts his objectives and / or means to accomplish
these objectives. More precise perception of limited war can be characterised as;
Limitation of Purpose (selective objectives), Limitation of Levels of Violence
(selected use of weapons), Limitation of Duration (time duration), and Limitation
of Locality (geography / selected zone of war).

POLITICO-MILITARY STRATEGIES

The Direct Threat Strategy

28. When active conflict is to be avoided and sufficiently large military

strength is available, the mere threat of the use of this strength may lead the
enemy to accept the conditions it is desired to impose on him.
 46

Strategy of Indirect Pressure – Coercive Diplomacy

29. If the objective to be achieved against an adversary is of only moderate

importance but resources available are inadequate to exert a decisive threat, an
attempt to attain the objective is made by more insidious methods; these may be
political, diplomatic or economic, while the military strength lends support to
these methods. It is the most suitable pattern when freedom of action is limited.

Strategy of Indirect Approach

30. If an objective of major importance is to be attained, but freedom of action

is restricted and military resources are also limited, then a series of successive
actions are taken in which the direct threat and indirect pressure are combined
with a limited application of force.

Strategy of Protracted Conflict

31. This pattern of strategy is suited if there is adequate freedom of action but
inadequate resources to secure a military decision for an important objective. It is
also called as “The Strategy of Attrition”. This pattern aims at wearing down the
enemy’s morale and tiring him out. It envisages a prolonged struggle with low
intensity military operations. This pattern of strategy demands tremendous
fortitude and moral endurance on part of those applying it.

Strategy of Direct Conflict

32. When the objective or interest is of vital importance and military resources
are available in sufficient strength, the military strategy might seek a quick
decision through military victory.
 47

TYPES OF DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES AND INSTRUMENTS

Arbitration

33. A process in which an outside party draws up a settlement for the parties to
a dispute. In binding arbitration, the parties agree to abide by the settlement
devised by the arbitrator.

Conciliation

34. A process in which a third party tries to bring the parties to agreement by
such things as improving communications, providing technical assistance and
exploring potential solutions.

Fact-finding Missions

35. These are the missions, which are carried out by third parties to determine,
as far as possible, the objective facts at the heart of a dispute.

Good Offices

36. A process in which a third party acceptable to all parties to the dispute
offers his or her aid in opening up communication.

Inspections

37. Arms control and disarmament treaties often have provisions for
inspection. Inspections aim to build confidence and prevent misunderstanding
between parties.

Judicial Settlement

38. A decision rendered by a court or legal panel.

 48

Mediation

39. A process in which a third party assists the parties in conflict to reach a
negotiated settlement. Sometimes used to cover the wide range of roles a third
party can play.

Monitoring

40. An ongoing process of scanning the political environment to detect

potential conflicts in advance.

Negotiation

41. The process of discussion and communication between two or more

parties, which is meant to lead to an agreement.

Preventive Diplomacy

42. Action to try to head off a crisis or conflict.

CONCLUSION

43. It is imperative for a strategist to have understood the essential notions /

terminologies and theories related to national security and defence. It is more
important for a strategist to talk in these terms and use these during the process of
strategic thinking and planning. This annexure has provided their brief
explanation and hopefully it would facilitate the reader in realising true essence of
these connotations. It is recommended that extensive studies of these notions /
terminologies and theories be undertaken as these would be frequently referred to
during discussions on security issues.
 49

ANNEX “C”

NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY

BASIC FLOW CHART – LINKAGES AND EXPLAINATION

1. The Basic Flow Chart with explanation of various terms is shown below:-

National Purpose Raison d’etre.

Desire/will of the people to lead their lives according to their
shared/common beliefs and values.
Non Verbal Consensus of major values of people (State: means
of achieving those desires/beliefs).

General and continuing ends for which a state acts.

National Interests
Interpretation of National Purpose, in prevailing conditions.
Assessment of future prospects.

Conditions in future.
National Aims
Desired and aspired by a nation (i.e. common consent).

Broad Goals are based on certain principles and designed to

National Objectives
support national interests.
Used to define targets or phase whose accomplishment leads to
progressive attainment of National Aims.

Specific course of action designed to achieve National Objective.

National Policy
Means to accomplish ends.

Art and science of developing and using the political, economic

National Strategy
and psychological powers of a nation, together with its armed
forces, during peace or war to secure national objectives.
Systematic development and employment of national power
including military power to secure national aims.
Art of comprehensive direction of power to control situation and
areas in order to attain national objectives.