How Fast Can Your Company Afford To Grow
How Fast Can Your Company Afford To Grow
How Fast Can Your Company Afford To Grow
How Fast
Can Your
Company Afford to ?
by Neil C. Churchill and John W. Mullins
MAY 2 0 0 1 135
TOOL KIT • How Fast Can Your Company Afford to Crow?
lins's ability to grow from internally and grow from internal sources. (See the 30-day credit terms with its suppliers,
generated funds. To determine the SFG exhibit "Components of an Operating so cash is not actually expended for
rate, we must first calculate each of the Cash Cycle") inventory the moment it arrives but,
three factors that compose it. To calculate Chullins's OCC, take a rather, 30 days afterward, when the sup-
The Operating Cash Cycle. Every look at its most recent income state- plier is paid. This shortens the time the
business has an operating cash cycle ment and balance sheet, shown in the cash is tied up for inventory and ac-
(OCC), essentially the length of time a exhibit "Chiallins Distributors' Financial counts receivable (ultimately, therefore,
company's cash is tied up in working Statements." At tbe right side ofthe bal- for cost of sales) to only 120 days, or 80%
capital before that money is finally re- ance sheet, we see that customers pay ofthe 150-day cycle.
turned when customers pay for the prod- their invoices in 70 days and that in- Of course, in addition to working
ucts sold or services rendered. Compa- ventory is held for an average of 80 days capital, we must also account for the
nies that require little inventory and are before it's sold. So the cash that Chullins cash needed for everyday operating
paid by their customers immediately in invests in working capital is tied up for expenses - payroll, marketing and sell-
cash, like many servicefirms,have a rel- a total of 150 days. That's Chullins's op- ing costs, utilities, and the like. These
atively short OCC. But companies that erating cash cycle. expenses are paid from time to time
must tie up funds in components and in- Fortunately, Chullins's cash isn't throughout the cycle, and the cash for
ventory at one end and then wait to col- really tied up for the entire OCC. We them may be tied up anywhere from
lect accounts receivable at tbe other need to take into account the delay be- 150 days (for bills paid on the first day of
have a fairly long OCC. All other things tween the time Chullins receives suf)- the cycle) to zero days (for invoices paid
being equal, the shorter the cycle, the plies and tbe time it pays for them. As on the same day the company receives
faster a company can redeploy its cash tbe exhibit shows, the company is on its cash from customers). We shall as-
sume, though, that bills are paid more or
less uniformly throughout the cycle and
Chullins Distributors'Operating Cash Cycle so are outstanding, on average, for half
the period, or 75 days. A summary ofthe
Base Case
duration Chullins's cash is tied up for
cost of sales and operating expenses
Duration Cash Is Tied Up (in days) appears in the exhibit "Chullins Distrib-
Accounts receivable 70 utors' Operating Cash Cycle"; to sim-
Inventory 80 plify this first example, we've included
OCC income taxes within operating expenses
Accounts payable 30 and ignored depreciation.
Cost of sales 120 The Amount of Cash Tied Up per
Operating expenses 75 Cycie. Now that we know how long
Chullins's cash will be tied up, we next
Income Statement calculate how much cash is involved.
Sales $1,000 The income statement shows that to
Cost of sales 0.600 produce one dollar of sales, Chullins in-
Operating expenses 0.350 curs 60 cents in cost of sales, money that
Total costs $0,950 / Chullins must invest in working capital,
Profit (cash) $0,050 which we've already determined is tied
up for 80% of the 150-day cycle. The av-
Amount of Cash Tied Up per Saies Doliar erage amount of cash needed for cost of
Cost of sales $0,600 X (120 ^150) = $0,480 sales over the entire cycle is thus 80%
Operations . $0,350 X (75-r 150) = $0,175 of 60 cents, or 48 cents per dollar of sales.
Cash required for each OCC i $0,655 The income statement also shows
that Cbullins must invest 35 cents per
Cash Generated per Saies Dollar $0,050 dollar of sales to pay its operating ex-
penses throughout the cycle. Since
SFG Rate Caicuiations we've calculated that this cash is tied
OCC SFC rate $0,050 v $0,655 = 7.63% up, on average, for half the cycle, or
OCCs per year 1 3 6 5 ^ 1 5 0 = ___ 2.433 75 days, the average amount of cash
Annual SFC rate 7.63% X 2.433 = 18.58% needed for operating expenses over the
Compounded annual SFG rate (1 + 0 . 0 7 6 3 ^ " " - 1 = 19.60% entire cycle is 17.5 cents per dollar of
sales. So all in all, Chullins must invest
MAY 2 0 0 1 137
TOOL KIT • How Fast Can Your Company Afford to Crow?
a total of 65.5 cents per dollar of sales The Maximum SFG Rate Of course, in each subsequent cycle,
over each operating cash cycle. Chullins is earning more and more, and
The Amount of Cash Coming In per Suppose Chullins decides to invest the this calculation has not taken into ac-
Cycle. Happily, Chullins is a thriving, entire 5 cents in worldng capital and op- count the compounding effect. If it did,
profitable business: after using 60 cents erating expenses to finance additional the SFG would come out to 19.60%.^
of each sales dollar for working capital sales volume. Assuming the company As a practical matter, though, unless
to support cost of sales and another has the productive capacity and mar- your operating cash cycle is very short-
35 cents for operating expenses, it reaps keting capability to generate additional less than about 100 days - the simpler
a full dollar at the end of the cycle. To sales, adding the 5 cents to the 65.5 cents straight-multiplication calculation is
finance another trip around the cycle already invested would increase its in- sufficient That's because our framework
at the same level of sales, it will need to vestment by 7-63% each cycle,' which assumes a company's past performance
reinvest 95 cents of that dollar, 60 cents directly translates into a 7-63% increase is an accurate predictor of its future per-
for cost of sales and 35 cents for operat- in sales volume in the next cycle. formance, which most managers know
ing expenses. The extra 5 cents that each If Cbullins can grow 7-63% every 150 is a tenuous assumption at best So using
dollar of sales produces can be invested days, how much can it grow annually? the more conservative SFG figure offers
in additional working capital and oper- Since there are 2.433 cycles of 150 days some measure of protection from unan-
ating expenses to generate more rev- in a 365-day year, tbe company can af- ticipated slips in performance.
enue in the next cycle. How much more ford tofinancean annual growth rate of What does that 18.58%figuretell us?
revenue? A simple calculation will lead 2.433 times 7.63%, or 18,58%, oA the If Chullins grows more slowly than
us to that number - the SFG rate - for money it generates from its own sales. 18.58% (assuming al! variables remain
each cycle. Its SFG rate, in other words, is 18.58%. constant), it will produce more cash
than it needs to support its growth. But shrinking collection time from 70 days Lever 2: Reducing Costs. Instead of
if it attempts to grow faster than 18.58% to 66. Let's also suppose that manage- speeding up cash flow, management
per year, it must either free up more ment can improve the rate at which It could seek to decrease the amount of
cash from its operations or find addi- turns its inventory, perhaps through bet- cash it needs to invest. Suppose Chul-
tional funding. Otherwise, it could un- ter forecasting, thereby reducing the lins's managers can negotiate better
expectedly find itself strapped for cash.
MAY 2 0 0 1 139
TOOL KIT • How Fast Can Your Company Afford to Grow?
Lever B: Raising Prices. Rather than over a company's OCC (in the United than 5%). But if we assume that the com-
reduce costs, Chullins could achieve es- States, for example, taxes are paid quar- pany spends all of its depreciation al-
sentially the same result by raising terly), and their calculation includes lowance on asset replacement to main-
prices (assuming the market would bear noncash expenses such as depreciation. tain its current sales level, the SFG rate
it). Suppose management thinks it can Let's assume that 40% of pretax prof- fails to 16.25%. This makes sense, be-
raise prices 1.5% without dampening de- its are paid quarterly in income taxes. As cause tbe cash being invested in asset re-
mand. That too raises profit margins we did with operating expenses, we'll placement exceeds the cash generated
from 5 cents to 6.5 cents. If all costs re- treat income taxes as if we paid them from tbe tax break.
main the same, the higher prices would. uniformly throughout the 90-day quar- Making adjustments for taxes, depre-
ciation, and asset replacement can be
tedious, and as their impact on the SFG
The period over which a company finances its fixed rate is generally extremely small, we sug-
assets has a marked effect on its abi-lity to grow, gest that for preliminary, back-of-the-
envelope planning, managers should
perhaps more than many managers would expect omit them, in a spreadsheet analysis, the
calculations are relatively easier, and we
in effect, lower the cost of sales and op- ter such that cash for taxes will be tied include them in our remaining compar-
erating expenses. The result is that Chul- up for 45 days and will accrue for 45 isons to be more precise.
lins would be able to sustain a growth days. To make the example comparable,
rate of 24.15%, slightly lower than it we must adjust the figures so that Investing over Many Cycles
could afford if it instead reduced costs Chullins generates 5% profit from oper- So far, we've assumed that Chullins Dis-
while keeping its price steady, since in ations after taxes ratber than before tributors has enough capacity to ac-
that case, slightly more cash is invested (which we do by raising pretax profits commodate an increase in sales with-
during the cycle. (See the figures for from sales to 8.3%). Cash for cost of sales out increasing fixed assets; we've also
Lever 3 in the exhibit.) and operating expenses remains the assumed that all marketing and R&D
Puliing Muitipie Levers. There is, of same, but we must now include cash for expenditures could remain at their his-
course, nothing to prevent management income taxes (3.3% for 105 ofthe cycle's torical levels as a percentage of sales.
from using more than one lever at a time. 150 days, since we subtract tbe 45 days At some point for almost all compa-
If Chullins could manage to both speed when taxes will not have been paid). nies, however, these assumptions fail to
its cash fiow and reduce costs, it would Chullins's ability to grow according to hold. Plants are working around the
be able to sustain an annual growth rate this more precise treatment, 18.39%, is clock, perhaps. Maybe Chullins's ware-
of 26.64% - 43% more than its original barely less than the 18.58% in our origi- house is bursting at the seams. Or the
growth rate-without going to external nal example. That's because cash tied company needs to embark on a major
sources of capital. (See thefiguresin the up for income taxes is very small relative promotion or costly R&D effort. In such
exhibit for using multiple levere.) to the amount needed for cost of sales cases, a portion ofthe cash generated in
and operating expenses. eacb operating cash cycle must be set
Adding Complexity to Depreciation and Asset Repiace- aside to fund expenses that span a num-
the Framework ment. In most companies, depreciation ber of cycles.
So far, we've considered a simplified expenses are offset wholly or mostly by investing in Additional Fixed As-
situation: the operating cash cycle en- real cash used to maintain their asset sets. Tbe period over which a company
compasses all the cash flows involved in bases. Equipment must be replaced, finances itsfixedassets has a marked ef-
generating saies, and there are no non- facilities updated, and so on, just to fect on its ability to grow, perhaps more
cash expenses, so profit equals cash at maintain a company's current rate of than many managers would expect.
the end of each cycle. We've included in- sales. To include these costs, we will use Let's say that Cbullins needs $400,000
come taxes in operating expenses and ig- the depreciation figure (1% of sales) that to expand its facilities in a year in which
nored depreciation. In reality, however, Chullins historically shows on its in- its annual sales volume is $10 million. It
the effects of taxes and depreciation are come statement, together with our as- must therefore set aside 4 cents of each
more complex than tbis, and we can ac- sumptions about the company's asset annual sales dollar for expansion, i.e.,
count for them within the framework. replacement history. 4 cents in cash for each sales dollar in
(Detailed calculations for the examples If Chullins doesn't need to invest cash Chullins's 150-day cycle. Deducting this
that follow are posted on the Web at to upgrade assets (which may be true amount and the 1 cent for asset replace-
www.hbr.org/explore.) in the Short term), its SFG rate rises to ment from its 5-4% profit leaves 0.4 cents
Income Taxes. Two complications 19.94%. That's because the depreciation to fund growth in subsequent cycles,
arise regarding income taxes for most allowance saves on taxes, yielding more and the SFG rate drops to a mere 1.48%.
companies: taxes are not paid uniformly cashfromoperations (5.4% of sales rather Chullins, therefore, may be unable to
course, the company could, perhaps, give Chullins two product lines to illus-
lease its additional facilities, to avoid the trate how to use theframeworkto mal?e
initial cash outlay entirely. Doing so decisions about their growth potential.
would avoid depressing its SFG rate for Product A is its original line, which
a year or two, as in tbe examples above, bas a net profit margin of 4%. At 7%,
but would add costs over the life of tbe Product B is a higher-margin line of
lease. Projecting the extra costs and customized items sold to a few large cus-
comparing them to any additional cash tomers who require extended terms.
the new facilities would generate would When we calculate the SFG rate for
enable the company to calculate its SFG each in the usual way, wefindthat even
rate for this scenario. though Product A carries lower mar-
Investing in R&D and Mari<eting. gins, the duration of its cash cycle is so
Suppose the company invests a hefty much shorter (92 days versus 271 days)
$400,000 in R&D or marketing, paid tbat its SFG rate comes to 27.08%, nearly
out evenly over the year. How that ex- twice Product B's 13.65%- If we assume
pense is accounted for has a major effect that the prospects for growth are equal
on Chullins's ability to finance future for tbe two product lines, Chullins will
growth. If the investment is treated as grow faster in the long run by pursuing
a capital expenditure, it becomes the the lower-margin Product A. Since its
equivalent of purchasing a fixed asset, annual SFG rate is twice as high, a dol-
and the SFG drops to the same 1.48%. lar of cash invested in efforts to grow
But how about expensing the invest- Product A will bring slightly more net
ment in the current year for tax pur- profit (4% profit on 27.08% additional
poses? That will reduce Chullins's tax- sales will yield 1.08% more net profit)
able income from 7.3% to 3.3%. The than that same doliar would reap if in-
MAY 2 0 0 1
T O O l KIT • How Fast Can Your Company Afford to Crow?