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    Australian Dollar Outlook 03 August 2011

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    International Business Times AU
    Australian Dollar Outlook 07/12/2011 is published by the International Business Times ( http://au.ibtimes.com/forex ) and is provided by BellFX.

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    Australian Dollar Outlook 03 August 2011

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    International Business Times AU
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    Australian Dollar Outlook 07/12/2011 is published by the International Business Times ( http://au.ibtimes.com/forex ) and is provided by BellFX.

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    Australian Dollar Outlook 07/12/2011 is published by the International Business Times ( http://au.ibtimes.com/forex ) and is provided by BellFX.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    27 views1 page

    Australian Dollar Outlook 03 August 2011

    Uploaded by

    International Business Times AU
    Australian Dollar Outlook 07/12/2011 is published by the International Business Times ( http://au.ibtimes.com/forex ) and is provided by BellFX.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 1

    FX DAILY REPORT

    WEDNESDAY AUGUST 3 2011

    The Australian Dollar has fallen another US cent overnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rates on hold yesterday and the release of weak economic data out of the US.
    Australia: This morning, the Australian Dollar was trading at USD 1.0780, which is 3 US cents below levels seen only last Thursday evening. Its descent has been steady and commenced following the RBA announced no change to the official Cash Rate of 4.75% in Australia. RBA Governor Stevens said while the June quarter inflation figures were high, it (inflation) should stay in the 2 to 3% target range for the rest of the year. Hooray said most market watchers! In their statement, the RBA said it remains concerned about the medium-term outlook for inflation and it considered whether the recent information warranted further policy tightening, a reference to the abovementioned CPI data. The acute sense of uncertainty in global financial markets over recent weeks meant they swayed to remaining on hold. Debate rages if the next move is up or down. The focus for the Australian market today is the release of June retail sales figures and international trade data. Retail sales are expected to be flat while the international trade surplus is expected to increase on the back of strong export growth. Majors: The US Dollar received a boost following the US debt deal. The strength in the USD overnight and the movement back towards it as a safe haven trade was in stark contrast to what we have seen in recent weeks. The debt deal saw the US Senate pass legislation to raise the debt ceiling by 74 votes to 26. President Obama has signed it into law. Yesterday the House of Representatives voted 269-161 to raise the US debt limit by at least US$2.1tio and cut federal spending by US$2.5tio over the next decade. The problem now is debt deal itself is creating fears for the economic outlook, as the deal requires a deep pullback in government spending at a time when the economy remains soft. Stock markets closed significantly lower overnight. The personal spending data for June showed a 0.2% fall (median +0.1%), the first fall in almost two years, while the savings rate rose to 5.4% from 5.0%. Coming after the weak ISM manufacturing data on Monday, is has escalated fears that the US economic recovery is losing momentum. Offshore, the US ADP employment data are released tonight, while services PMIs are due in the US, Europe, UK, China and Australia.
    Economic Calendar 3 AUG

    Bell FX Currency Outlook

    Australian Dollar / US Dollar


    1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 Sep-05

    Sep-06

    Sep-07

    Sep-08

    Sep-09

    Sep-10

    Sep-11

    `````````

    ``

    Todays Forecast Range

    USD 1.0675 - 1.8000


    Currencies AUD / USD USD / JPY EUR / USD GBP / USD NZD / USD AUD Crosses AUD / JPY AUD / EUR AUD / GBP AUD / NZD AUD / CAD Australian Rates Official Cash 3 Month Bill 10 Year Bond US Rates Fed Funds 3 Month Libor 10 Year Bond Commodities Gold (US$ / oz) Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) CRB Index Equities ASX 200 Dow Jones FTSE Hang Seng Nikkei Last 1.0746 77.21 1.4180 1.6279 0.8627 Last 83.03 0.7577 0.6594 1.2443 1.0328 Last 4.75 5.03 4.80 Last 0.25 0.264 2.611 Last 1660.55 93.26 341.82 Last 4434 11867 5718 22421 9845 0.257 2.744 - / + (%) +2.6 -1.7 +0.1 - / + (%) -1.4 -2.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 5.07 4.91 Previous High 1.1009 77.83 1.4283 1.6328 0.8785 High 85.59 0.7709 0.6744 1.2566 1.0517 Previous Low 1.0776 76.96 1.4151 1.6225 0.8634 Low 83.04 0.7592 0.6615 1.2421 1.0357

    AU Retail Sales JUN AU Trade Balance JUN CH China Non-manufacturing PMI JUL US Factory Orders JUN

    Important Disclaimer This may affect your legal rights: This publication has been issued on the basis that it is only for the information and exclusive use of the particular person to whom it is provided by Bell Potter Securities Limited trading in the foreign exchange markets as Bell Foreign Exchange (ACN 004 845 710). As this publication is a private communication to clients, it is not intended for public circulation or for use by any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Foreign Exchange. The Information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources considered and believed to be both reliable and accurate, and no responsibility is accepted for any error or omission, that may have occurred, or for any opinion expressed. The Information is general in nature, and does not take into account, the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential reader. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on, as financial or investment advice, or recommendations (expressed or implied), and is not an invitation to take up securities or other financial products or services. No decision should be made on the basis of the information without seeking expert financial advice. Ranges in this publication are indicative ranges over the past 24 hours. Last is around 9.00am Sydney. Please speak with Bell Foreign Exchange if you require latest pricing and ranges.

    Sally Fisher Kimberly Limbert Rebecca Kelly Nick White

    08 8224 2771 08 8224 2725 08 8224 2772 08 8224 2770

    sfisher@bellfx.com.au klimbert@bellfx.com.au rkelly@bellfx.com.au nwhite@bellfx.com.au

    Bill Giffen Scott Hill Bronson Livingston Scott Fleming

    02 9255 7473 02 8243 3504 02 8243 3503 03 9235 1912

    bgiffen@bellfx.com.au shill@bellfx.com.au blivingston@bellfx.com.au sfleming@bellfx.com.au


    ABN 25 006 390 772 AFS LICENCE NO.243480

    BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED

    GPO BOX 4718 MELBOURNE VIC 3001 AUSTRALIA

    TOLL FREE 1800 003 815 INFO@BELLPOTTER.COM.AU WWW.BELLPOTTER.COM.AU

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