Development of Electricity Pricing

Criteria at Residential Community Level

Item Type Article

Authors Ihbal, Abdel-Baset M.I.; Rajamani, Haile S.; Abd-Alhameed, Raed

A.; Jalboub, Mohamed K.; Elmeshregi, A.S.; Aljaddal, M.A.

Citation Ihbal AM, Rajamani HS, Abd-Alhameed RA, Jalboub MK,

Elmeshregi AS and Aljaddal MA (2014) Development of electricity
pricing criteria at residential community level. Universal Journal
of Electrical and Electronic Engineering. 2(2): 81-89.

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Citation: Ihbal AM, Rajamani HS, Abd-Alhameed RA, Jalboub MK, Elmeshregi AS and Aljaddal MA
(2014) Development of electricity pricing criteria at residential community level. Universal Journal
of Electrical and Electronic Engineering. 2(2): 81-89.

Copyright statement: © Horizon Research Publishing. Full-text reproduced in accordance with

the publisher’s self-archiving policy.
Universal Journal of Electrical and Electronic Engineering 2(2): 81-89, 2014 http://www.hrpub.org
DOI: 10.13189/ujeee.2014.020205

Development of Electricity Pricing Criteria at Residential

Community Level
A. M. Ihbal1,*, H. S. Rajamani2, R. A. Abd-Alhameed2, M. K. Jalboub1, A. S. Elmeshregi1, M. A. Aljaddal3

1
Faculty of Engineering, Azzawiya University, Azzawiya, Libya
2
School of engineering, Design and Technology University of Bradford, Bradford, BD7 1DP, UK
3
High Vocational Institute for instructors, Regdaleen, Libya
*Corresponding Author: malabdo@yahoo.co.uk

Copyright © 2014 Horizon Research Publishing All rights reserved.

Abstract In the UK there is no real time retail market, their customers need).
and hence no real time retail electricity pricing. Therefore There are four components to the electricity industry.
domestic electricity consumers in the UK pay electricity These components are generation, transmission, distribution
prices that do not vary from hour to hour, but are rather some and retailers. The generation sector is the production
kind of average price. Real time pricing information was process of electricity in power stations. Transmission refers
identified as a barrier to understanding the effectiveness of to the transportation of electricity through high voltage
various incentives and interventions. The key question is cables. Distribution is the transportation of electricity at
whether we can evaluate energy management and renewable lower voltages and facilities to the final customers. Retailers
energy intervention in the behaviour of customers in real are the people who make the sales of electricity to the final
market terms. Currently only behaviour changes with respect customers. Electricity markets can also be divided into
to total consumption can be evaluated. Interventions cannot wholesale, retail and balancing markets.
be defined for peak load behaviour. The effectiveness of the The wholesale market in the UK is the market for the sale
introduction of renewable energy is also hard to assess. and purchase of electricity between retailers and generators
Therefore, it is hard to justify introducing of renewable and of electricity. The current trading arrangements in the
demand side management at local community level, apart wholesale market allow suppliers to buy the electricity they
from when following government approved schemes, need to meet their customer’s needs from the generating
subsidies, and other initiatives. In this paper, a new criteria company of their choice, i.e. this is a competitive market.
has been developed to help developers and planners of local The retail market is the market for the sale and purchase of
residential communities to understand the cost of electricity between consumers of electricity (customers) and
intervention, in order to evaluate where the load is when the retailers of electricity (suppliers). Retailers and generators
prices are high. try to match their demand and generation, respectively, to
their contract levels so that they do not have a surplus or
Keywords Real Time Pricing, Renewable Energy deficit of electricity. This is one of the key objectives of the
Intervention, Demand Side Management, Local Community trading arrangements in encouraging all participants to have
contracts covering all of their generation and/or demand.
The generators may generate more or less energy than
they have sold through bilateral contracts during the process
1. Introduction of electricity production and trading. Retailers may purchase
more or less power through bilateral contracts than their
The restructuring of power markets has been ongoing in customers’ actual consumption, and traders may buy more or
various countries around the world, including the UK, over less energy than they have sold. Such circumstances are
the last two decades. Since the early 1990's the UK’s regarded as being in imbalance. This energy imbalance is
electricity industry has changed from a government also bought or sold.
controlled monopoly to a competitive market in order to The balancing mechanism market is through the National
deliver a lower cost to the consumers, giving consumers the Grid Company (NGC). The National Grid Company (NGC)
choice to select their energy supplier. In the process a will accept offers and bids for electricity close to real time to
commodity market for wholesale electricity transactions was maintain energy balance, and also to deal with other
established. Here electricity is traded in large volumes, operational constraints of the transmission system. The
mostly between electricity producers (selling the output of balancing mechanism allows electricity companies and
their power stations) and electricity suppliers (buying what traders to submit offers to sell energy (by increasing
82 Development of Electricity Pricing Criteria at Residential Community Level

generation or decreasing consumption) to the system. These the PJM market efficiently and accurately.
participants can also submit bids to buy energy (by Autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) model was
decreasing generation or increasing consumption) from the adopted in [4] to reveal the linear relationship between
system, at a price of the company's choosing. The National power load and electricity price.
Grid Company will take the lowest priced offers and accept A study in [5] established the lack of fairness principles
the highest priced bids. The imbalance prices, the system buy within the Demand response (DR) programs, as perceived by
price (SBP) and system sell price (SSP), applied to the customers to be one of the key restrictions. Fair Demand
imbalances, are derived largely as the weighted average response (FDR) scheme criteria are defined and compared
prices of these accepted balancing mechanism offers and with existing pricing schemes. In this context, a simplified
bids. pricing model that takes into consideration fairness criteria
System Buy Price (SBP) is an imbalance price at which for residential category has been also proposed. The
retailers settle the deficit in electricity by buying electricity proposed pricing model was simulated and the results were
to meet the demands of their customers from the suppliers. If compared with that of the flat and the price based pricing
the retailer's actual demand is lower than it has contracted for, schemes. In [6], a hybrid methodology that combines both
it pays the system sell price (SSP) for the excess. ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for
Figure 1 shows the average UK household fuel price predicting short-term electricity prices was provided. A new
from 1970 to 2009. The real price of electricity has price forecasting method based on wavelet transform
increased by over a quarter since 1970, and the rise since combined with ARIMA and GARCH model was proposed
2003 has been much steeper: a jump of about 63 percent in in [7]. In [8], a hybrid time-series and adaptive wavelet
only six years [1]. The cost of electricity is higher because neural network (AWNN) model for the day-ahead electricity
of the costs associated with conversion, transmission, market clearing price forecast was presented. The reference
distribution and profit margins of private companies. [9] proposed a novel technique to forecast day-ahead
electricity prices based on the wavelet transform and
ARIMA models.
The previous review has shown that there are various
forecasting tools which exist for planners at national level.
However, at a local community level, where energy demand
patterns may significantly differ from the national picture,
planners would be unable to justify local and more
appropriate intervention due to the lack of appropriate
planning tools.
In this paper, The SBP was suggested to be used as an
indicator of electricity real time price. To better capture the
price fluctuations that can occur in real markets, this work
took into consideration the diversification in prices the
market might have.

Figure 1. Average UK Household Fuel Price [1]

2. System Buy Price
There have been numerous investigations dealing with
electricity load profiles and electricity prices [2-9]. A tool System Buy Price (SBP) is the price at which retailers
was developed to investigate the use of tariff schemes to settle the deficit in electricity by buying electricity from
modify the behavior of consumers in order to achieve suppliers to meet the demands of their customers. It is
changes in the load profile for a local community in [2]. A possible to use the System Buy Price (SBP) as an indicator of
technique of artificial neural network (ANN) model based on electricity real price.
similar days method in order to forecast day-ahead electricity Figure 2 shows a sample of the half-hourly electricity
price in the PJM market was explored in [3]. The factors System Buy Price for one week, for the time period 09th Jan
impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time 2010 to 15th Jan 2010 [10]. The figure shows the half
factors, load factors, and historical price factors were hourly electricity SBP data in pounds per megawatt hour
discussed. Comparison of forecasting performance of the (£/MWh). As can be seen from the figure, there are two key
proposed ANN model with that of forecasts obtained from peaks. Monday is an unusual event and has large spikes.
similar day's method was presented. Simulation results show This might be due to a sudden failure in the power grid
that the proposed ANN model based on similar days method which led to a high increase in prices in a very short period
is capable of forecasting locational marginal price (LMP) in of time.
 Universal Journal of Electrical and Electronic Engineering 2(2): 81-89, 2014 83

Figure 2. System Buy Price vs. Time

The half-hourly national demand data over two days is predicting their own market demand. It also gives us an
shown in Figure 3. The data was taken from the National indication of the price retailers would be prepared to pay in
Grid website [11]. real time rather than in ahead (via contracts).
If, through contractual agreement, the retailer purchases
more electricity than required, then the retailer has to sell it
back. The price of selling it back therefore indicates whether
he is making a profit or a loss. The selling back price
therefore would logically be below the contractual price or
else market would naturally underbuy on contract. Therefore,
the fluctuation in prices indicates the ability of the retailer to
accurately forecast his demand in the future and hence the
value of his contractual purchases. In other words the
retailers’ ability to accurately predict will help him to enter
contracts in a strong position so that he does not have to buy
or sell in the market. In practice, it is not possible to be
perfectly accurate as that would require significant
Figure 3. System Demand vs. Time management and simulation tools. The market behaviour
resolves this in an elegant way. The fact that all companies
From Figure 3 it can be seen that the demand is more face the same issues makes the system work to the benefit of
predictable, with less variations between days. The amount all.
of daily demand for the whole data sets (for January, The SBP prices were plotted against national demand to
February and March) is approximately the same (ranging give an indication of the way prices rise as demand comes
from 2244 GW to about 2250 GW). Furthermore, there is close to the fundamental limits of supply capacity (Figure 4).
only one key peak. We can use the demand as an indicator of From the figure we can see that big variations occur on
price. Monday and slightly higher price on higher demand points.
Considering Figure 2 and Figure 3, despite national In order to model this further, a per unit system is developed
demand not changing much, we notice peaks at different in the next section.
times of the day. This indicates variations in retailers
84 Development of Electricity Pricing Criteria at Residential Community Level

Figure 4. System Buy Price vs. demand

3. Per Unit System by the abnormal situation.

Using per unit values allows essential characteristics of 3.2. Base National Demand
the data sets to be compared on the same diagram. This
allows data on different scales to be compared, by bringing The base national demand (BND) is the average half
them to a common scale. Moreover, different systems can be hourly demand. It is calculated as shown in Equation (3).
compared. The per unit system is based on the formula N 48
shown in Equation (1).
∑∑ D d ,i
Actual Quantity BND = d =1 i =1
(3)
per unit = N × 48
Base Quantity (1)
Where Dd,i = national demand in day d at time i.

3.1. Base Price

3.3. Base Community Demand
The base price (BP) is the average half-hourly price. It is
The base community demand (BCD) is the average half
calculated as shown in Equation (2).
hourly community demand for a day. It is calculated as
N 48 shown in Equation (4).
∑∑ P d ,i 48
BP = ∑D
d =1 i =1
(2)
N × 48 i
BCD = i =1
(4)
Where Pd,i = SBP rate in day d at time i, N= Number of days. 48
If Equation (2) is used in abnormal situation (in sampled Where, Di = Half hourly community demand at time i.
case) would result in a big error unless filter out the extremes The base values were calculated for the time period 11th
or use much wider widowed data to reduce the error caused Jan 2010 to 14th Jan 2010 as shown in Table 1.
 Universal Journal of Electrical and Electronic Engineering 2(2): 81-89, 2014 85

Table 1. Summary of Base Values

Base Price (£/Mwh) 86

Base National Demand (Mw) 46787

Base Community Demand (Kwh) 75.3

The results of the calculated per unit values for system buy
price are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 6. SBP Rate Vs. Community Demand

The electricity costs of the community have been

calculated for each day. The results are shown in Figure 7.
Figure 5. System Buy Price In Per Unit vs. Time Figure 7 shows variations in electricity cost. If we use
From the Figure 5, it is clear that Monday (11/01/2010) is Monday’s prices we notice a very high cost around 18:00 and
an unusual event and the peaks on other days reach near to 19:00 of about 4.5 pu, but if we use Tuesday’s prices the cost
1.9 pu. Note that, 1 pu is the average. is much lower than on Monday and reaches about 2.3 pu
around 21:00 PM. Also, it can be seen that the electricity cost
on Thursday is high at 19:00 and 21:00 with a value of about
2.8 pu. Moreover, the peak cost on Friday of about 1.45 pu
4. Community Electricity Cost under occurs at 17:00 and 21:00.
SBP The load has a similar cycle but the system buy price (SBP)
has a different cycle with different values for each day. As a
The generated load profile for the local community of 400
result, the cost of electricity is different each day (Monday to
households presented in [12,13 ] has been used to investigate
Friday) reflecting the fluctuation in price. From the results
the effect of SBP as an indicator of real time price on the
we can conclude that it is very difficult to manage as
electricity cost for the whole community. We are in need of a
indication of price keeps changing. Therefore, it is not a
measure of dynamic load cost over the day, in order to look
reliable tool for the planners.
at the peak load shaving and a potential for a market.
The community load with SBP prices in per unit for
Monday to Friday is shown in Figure 6 in a radar chart. As
can be seen from the figure, the prices change basically
during days and week.
The electricity cost is the sum of the products of the
individual period rates and the energy consumed. Equation
(5) gives the electricity cost on a time interval.
48
C= ∑ P .D
j =1
j j
(5)
Where: C = total electricity cost to time period T in pu.
Pj = SBP rate at time j in pu.
Dj = Electricity consumed at time j in pu.
If high SBP rates occur during periods of high power
demand, consumers can see electricity cost increases above
those seen with a fixed rate. Figure 7. Community Demand and Electricity Cost Under SBP
86 Development of Electricity Pricing Criteria at Residential Community Level

half-hourly national demand representing three months’ data

has been arranged in numerical order from smallest to largest.
The national demand data is divided into 15 groups with
equal intervals of 2250. Each demand group is associated
with system buy price data and treated as a separate data. For
each group the three quartiles of system buy price (SBP) are
calculated. Each quartile is treated as a separate data. The
first or bottom quartile represents the lowest price data, the
second quartile or median represents the median price, and
the third or upper quartile represents the highest price. Each
quartile of SBP associated with demand data are treated as a
dependent variable and an independent variable respectively,
which means we have three dependent variables (bottom,
median and upper). Each dependent variable has a single
value for each demand data interval. The three fitted price
Figure 8. Community Demand vs. National Demand
equations for each scenario (quartile) were estimated using
Figure 8 shows the local demand plotted against national regression analysis. The computer statistical package
demand. From the figure, it can be seen that the national software MINITAB has been used to get the fitted regression
demand is more stable across the day and has a peak around equation. The electricity price curves are of the form:
16:30 to 18:30. The local residential demand would naturally
have peaks at different times of the day. As a result of that, price = a + be cd (6)
investments to reduce bills under standard tariffs would
Where price is the fitted quartile electricity price in p.u and d
therefore not have a significant impact on natural peak load
is the instantaneous national demand in p.u at that day. The
(between 16:30 - 18:30). Therefore it is difficult to
resultant electricity price curves, shown as a function of
understand what intervention in behaviour is required using
demand, can be seen in Figure 10.
purely load behaviour.
The resultant fitted equations for high, medium and low
In order to model further, three possibilities of electricity
electricity price curves are shown in Equations 7, 8 and 9
measure of system price are developed in the next section.
respectively. The determination coefficients for the three
quartiles are 0.96, 0.96 and 0.93 respectively.

5. Price Model Phigh = 0.3365 + 1.565 × 10 −3 e 5.502 d

(7)
When overlaid the system buy prices data for January, Pmedium = 0.3282 + 1.4523 × 10 e −4 7.175 d

February and March (as shown in Figure 9 [1]), the whole (8)
data sets are not visually discernible. It can be seen that the Plow = 0.108e1.47 d (9)
supply capacity is in the range of about 55 to 58 GW, and
that there is a considerable knee in the curve at around the These equations are only valid for the demand data
52GW, £100/MWh region. Also, there is a spread in price ranging from about 0.6 pu to 1.3 pu. The constant (a) could
points for demand between 40 and 58 GW. probably represent the minimum cost of electricity produced,
b is a scaling factor and c represents the rate of change of
pricing.

Figure 9. System Buy Price Vs. Demand (Data Combined)

Figure 9 is not useful in this form; therefore it was decided

to use the quartiles as an indicator of range of prices.
In order to create three quartiles, the sample of 4318 of Figure 10. System Buy Price Vs. Demand (Data Combined)
 Universal Journal of Electrical and Electronic Engineering 2(2): 81-89, 2014 87

The gap between the curves at high demand shows the It can be seen that the community demand is higher at 21:00
potential for the market. The curve also shows that at high but the cost is higher at 18:00. The cost variation at peak is
demand the cost is a significant; up to 2 pu, whereas it can ranging from 1.5 pu to 3.5 pu.
possibly be as good as 0.8 pu. The median curve also It can be seen that the cost was about 1.5 pu at 18:00 for
indicates that at peak level of demand the price is about 1.5 the low model, 2.4 pu at 18:00 for the medium model, and
pu. Structurally, this indicates that for generators it would about 3.5 pu at 18:00 for the high model. From the Figure, it
cost more to invest in additional generation, as this indicates can be seen that the load pattern is not correlated with the
infrastructure costs in future. For planners, this indicates price pattern, where maximum consumption periods do not
opportunities via understanding of peak load pricing which is coincide with periods of high price. The electricity cost at
based on real data. Moreover, the margin of cost benefit to a 18:00 is about 3.5 pu with demand of about 2.5 pu. This is
local planner can be quantified in financial terms. The base higher than it is at 21:00 where the cost is about 2.5 pu with
value may change but as the comparison in pu the analysis demand of 3.1pu.
will still be the same. Updated curves can always be obtained The issue is that the peak is costing more so we are
for planners. looking at an idea of costing. The price models are based on
The fitted price curves are used in the following section to national demand where the local community demand has a
forecast the half-hourly SBP which were considered as a very different pattern. Attributable to that, the cost curves do
measure of system price in order to investigate its effect on not follow the demand pattern. Therefore, the storage
daily electricity demand. batteries could be used as an alternative for peak shaving and
load levelling solutions; if we can shift the load a bit we will
save a lot more. The planners can now think where they need
6. Community Electricity Cost under the to make a big effort to evaluate where the load is when the
New Pricing Criteria prices are high. An example, to show how we can actually
use these curves in evaluating the possibility of using storage
In this section we are looking at the community electricity elements at community level, will be provided in the future
cost using the three price curves. The cost of one day work.
(Tuesday) under the three price curves is shown in Figure 11.

Figure 11. Electricity Cost under Three Price Model Options

88 Development of Electricity Pricing Criteria at Residential Community Level

7. Discussion consumers reduce their electricity costs in order to manage

their consumption by taking advantage of lower priced hours
In the UK there is no real-time retail market, and hence no and conserving electricity during hours when prices are
real-time retail electricity pricing. Therefore, consumers do higher.
not pay based on the real-time price but rather some kind of The developed three curves would be used as a tool to
average price, and hence have no sufficient incentives to evaluate the possibility of using storage batteries at
reduce load at times of high prices or to shift their demand to community level as an example. PV cells or other embedded
other periods. could also be studied in a similar way.
A criterion has been developed to help developers and
planners of local communities to understand the cost of
intervention in order to evaluate where the load is when the 8. Conclusion
prices are high. The SBP was suggested to be used as an
indicator of electricity real time price. The conclusions drawn are presented below.
To better capture the price fluctuations that can occur in  Presenting the data in per unit value allows
real markets, this work took into consideration the underlying characteristics of the data sets to be
diversification in prices the market might have by compared.
developing three price curves in Figure 10 using the quartiles  The radar (spider) chart has been proposed as a
of SBP versus national demand. Each quartile presents a standard chart to compare the per unit values of
possible pricing case. There are a number of alternatives demand, price and cost for the local community for
which could be used as an indicator of range of prices such as load shaving aspect.
minimum, maximum or quartiles. The quartiles have been  As no real time retail price exists in the UK, the
used rather than the maximum and minimum values because System Buy Price (SBP) has been used as a measure
there is a need for an indicator that considers all the values, of the real price based on per unit values. In order to
and not just the minimum and the maximum. The minimum better capture the price fluctuations that can occur in
value to the maximum is the range. The difficulty in real markets, the three curves of Figure 10 have been
assessing by range is that an extreme change in just one value developed using the quartiles of SBP versus demand.
drastically changes the range. So, it is not reasonable to use  The tool developed in [4,5] can now be used
the maximum or minimum; they could be abnormal. The alongside SBP to help planners to look at an idea of
three curves are estimated based on the daily national the cost of peak shaving which is essential for
demand data, because the national demand data is developing a financial case for investment in this
predictable and has low variations. These curves are used as market.
an indicator of electricity real time price and demand, and are  As an example of using the tool developed in [4]
presented in pu. These curves can help planners to look at the and system buy pricing, the possibility of using
cost of peak shaving, which is essential for developing a battery storage at residential community level could
financial case for investment in this market. be evaluated.
Presenting the data in per unit value allows underlying  The introduction of such an independent retail
characteristics of the data sets on different scales to be market at local level to enable electricity transactions
compared by bringing them to a common scale and makes between communities with embedded generation
the analysis easier. capabilities requires further research.
The radar chart is proposed as the standard chart to
compare the per unit values of demand, price and cost for the
local community over the full day, at the nationally accepted
half-hourly interval. The chart shows the data around the
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