GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

Why should we care? Earth Climate 101

• Greenhouse emission concentrations have increased from anthropogenic activity and pasted the 350 ppm CO2 mark, where it
has never reached this level in the geological time scale
o Predictive climate models all reveal concerning scenarios about the future

Earth’s climate system consists of complex feedbacks

• External forcing – changes in tectonics, Earth’s orbit, sun’s strength and human activity
• Internal responses – changes in atmosphere, oceans, ice, biosphere and lithosphere
• Positive feedback – amplify initial climate response
• Negative feedback – reduce initial climate response

Variations in temperature are evident in the temporal scale however historical and deglacial show that temperature has been increasing

Long history of Climate Model evolution has focused on ‘what determines climate?’

19th century belief that climate was stable and self-regulating

• Basic physics
o Joseph Fourier (1820) – atmosphere retains heat radiation (frozen otherwise)
o Tyndall (1862) – first to prove Earth’s atmosphere having a greenhouse effect and measured night time
temperatures
o Problem was that atmosphere was treated as a unit
• First ‘models’
o Arrhenius (1986) – first energy budget calculations and included feedbacks; decreased CO2 caused cooling
o Problem was that no latitude or longitude heat transport, ignored clouds and climate processes
o Thomas Chamberlain (1897) – CO2 weathering model and global movements of carbon in rocks and oceans
o Problem was that long timescales and atmosphere was already saturated with CO2 and water vapour
1900 – 1950 – little progress
1950s, 1960s and 1970s – weathering and the emergence of the computer
1970 – 1988 – ocean circulation, supercomputer, real world observations
After 1988 – international transparency and fully coupled
Present – Major convergence of AO-GCMs and climate system modules; problems associated with uncertainities in assumptions
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

Atmospheric General Circulation Models (A-GCM’s), Ocean General Circulation Models (O-
GCM’s) and Coupled Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AO-GCM’s) are key
tools to global climate change hind and forecasting
• Trying to quantify how energy is transferred and expressed through Climate
System
• Models have become more accurate over time as computer power increases ten times
every 1 to 2 years
• Models were correct about
o Surface warming with stratosphere cooling
o Warming of troposphere despite initial incorrect satellite data
o Warming of surface ocean waters
o Faster increase in night time temperature
o Large warming in Arctic
o Short-term cooling after volcanic eruptions

Atmospheric General Circulation Models (A-GCM’s) describe energy transfer in atmosphere

• Models atmospheric processes, variability of climate and its
responses to changes in sea-surface temperature
o Shows relationship between incoming solar radiation and
back radiation
o Organised on lines of longitude and latitude and many
vertical layers

Ocean General Circulation Models (O-GCMs) show energy transfer in the

ocean
• Models ocean circulation, interior processes and variability response
to surface air temperature and other atmospheric processes
o Air-sea factors that interact are water vapour, heat,
momentum (wind) and those that oscillate between air and
sea

Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AO-GCMs)

combines both atmospheric and oceanic models
• Most complex model with variability and physical processes;
prediction and rate of rate of future climate
• Used to examine ice sheet dynamics, plant response, atmospheric
chemistry, soil, ocean biology and chemistry
• Atmospheric exchanges
o Vertical and horizontal – between momentum, heat and
moisture
• Oceanic exchanges
o Vertical – between momentum, heal and salts by diffusion, convection and upwelling
o Horizontal – diffusion and advection

Major uncertainties and problems

• Variations in solar energy
o Some influence, but shown to be less important than
greenhouse gases
• Behaviour of hydrosphere and cryosphere (cloud and ice sheet
dynamics) -> largest uncertainty
o Cloud albedo response & affect, accelerated ice decay
• Sulphate aerosols and dust (natural + anthropogenic)
o Cooling effect, volcano, dirty coal, interaction with clouds
• CO2 fertilisation effect + changes in forest carbon
o Negative feedback on warming, seasonal effect on CO2, changes in forest distribution
• Changes in soil organic matter
o Current 10% C in atmosphere, soil respiration, positive feedbacks on warming
• Ocean feedbacks
o Heat -> negative feedback for ocean, but CO2 and CH4 become less soluble
o More CO2 in atmosphere -> warming positive feedback, gas hydrate
• Over all carbon cycle feedbacks
o Reduced terrestrial and ocean uptake of CO2
• Human dimension (emissions depend on population and economic growth) -> major uncertainties
o Technology reduce or sequester, mitigation or adaptation, international arena
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

AO-GCM’s can stimulate impacts fairly well, but future impact will depend on three main questions
• What will be our greenhouse emissions and pathway?
• What is the climate sensitivity?
• What are the uncertainties about some feedbacks?

Potential descriptors for the future

• Increases in global average temperature
• Decreased sea ice
• Decrease in pH – ocean acidification

CO2 concentrations are increasing ~2 ppm/year from emissions and disforestation

• Trend will continue to rise due to population increases
o Increase in C emission = increase in population x change in per/per emissions x changes in efficiency of carbon
use
o Population growth x economic growth x technology
• There are uncertainties associated with this as potential technological advancement could address this factor

Global environment impacts in a likely 3x CO2 world

• Major changes to sea ice and ice sheets (less), mountain glaciers (less), hydrologic cycle (volatile), vegetation (more), ocean
acidification (more), deep ocean circulation (volatile) and evaporation (more)
• Polar influence with Arctic/Greenland having lower margins and rapid melting, Antarctica with faster ice streams and
Western Antarctic ice sheets unstable, Antarctic sea ice increasing while Arctic is decreasing (most vulnerable)
• Main issue with models is that uncertainties exist due to lack of precipitation prediction and different models have different
time scales

Concern is the significant lag/inertia in climate system

• Lag between peaks and drop offs a in hundreds of years as CO2 is cycled through the climate system and ocean

Reading the past to predict the future of global climate and sea-level changes
• General trend in rising sea levels in past 200 years
• Current sea level is rising ~3 mm/year
o Less than during meltwater pulse 1A – 41 mm/year
• Uncertainties about sea-level change as it could be relative to glacial isostatic adjustment
o Bulge formation, gravitational attraction and decreasing ice load
o Bulge collapse, uplift and ice melting

Melting of beneath ice sheet close to grounding line (buttressing) has potential for raising sea-levels and accelerating melting in polar
regions

Case study: abrupt paleo-sea level rise, ocean circulation and global climate change (Last deglaciation 20 – 10 ka)
• Caused by ice sheet collapse, melting and associated sea-level rise
• Concerns include slowdown of thermohaline circulation and mass freshwater input
• Time machine to understand global climate change dynamics
• Abrupt climate change is possible (100s years)
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

Case study: sea-level during Last Interglacial (LIG) – 125 ka

• Global climate was warm with temperatures projected for the late 21st century
• Sea-level was up to 8 – 9 m higher than present day and consisted of rapid sea-level oscillations
• Allows the understanding of future consequences and stability
o Implies sea-level rise in future could be substantially higher and rise fast

Scenario based emission scenarios (expressed as representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and
predictions
• RCP 8.5 (worst)
o Increase global temperature
o Decrease sea ice extent
o Decrease ocean pH
o Increase CO2
• RCP 2.6 (best)
o Slight increase in global temperature
o Slight decrease in sea ice extent
o Slight decrease in ocean pH
o Slight decrease in CO2
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

There is no single pathway for solution as it requires global coordination across a range of socio-economic-scientific-engineering
spheres
• Wedge approach good start but now need to move to negative emissions to have a chance of staying under Paris
Agreement target temperature
• Paris Agreement target temperature – 26 – 28% by 2030 (negative emissions)

Reef is an ecosystem and environment that hosts various marine lifeforms (rainforests of the sea)
• Different perspective of reefs results in different interpretations
o Biologist – short-term snapshot (living vs. dead)
o Geologist – long-term growth of reef (over 100 years)

Zooxanthellae are dinoflagellates (unicellular algal protists) mostly from the genus Symbiodinium
• Yellow – brown, present at 1 million per cm2
• Photosynthesise using CO2 and nutrients from internal fluids of polyps
• Once needs are fulfilled for respiration and growth, surplus released for corals to use
• Photosynthesis greatly enhances the rate of calcium carbonate by corals

Coralline Algae are many genera of red and green algae incorporating CaCO3 in their tissues
• Some grow close to substrate and are called encrusting forms
• Others have upright, branching form
• Algal crusts and ridges integral parts of reefs
• Estimates suggest that calcium deposits from algae can form 70% of reef
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

Modern reef ‘growth window’ is the specific conditions which corals can happily grow
• If environmental conditions leave this window modern reefs begin to have serious problems
• Understanding these boundaries is important in the interpretation of geological evolution of coral reefs (uniformitarianism)

Most important factors affecting modern coral growth

• Light and symbiosis – used by symbiotic algae, coral (zooxanthellate) limited to photic zone (0 – 100 m); most coral grow
actively only in shallow water (0 – 30 m)
• Temperature – normally thrive in warm, tropical conditions as growth and reproductive processes work most efficiently;
going over 29 or under 19 for any prolonged period of time will result in coral death
• Surface circulation – major control on coral reproductive success; influences distribution of coral reefs through movement
of coral lava on ocean currents
• Substrate availability – suitable substrate (hard rocky) allows colonisation to take place for settling lava
• Tidal regimes – determines the upper limit of reef growth, often gets periodic exposure during low tides
• Sedimentary regimes – high turbidity from sediment input can negatively impact coral growth (reducing light levels,
choking coral polyps); also heavily influenced by energy in the system (trade winds cyclones)

Main currents of the equatorial Pacific flow in a westward direction

• Acts as a catch for all planula larvae -> world’s largest tropical archipelago of islands and contains 37% of world’s reefs
• Same occurs for Caribbean waters

Diversity at species level is the outcome of

• Ocean circulation patterns and geographic and evolutionary changes
General observations for modern zooxanthellate coral reefs
• Arranged near symmetrically in both hemispheres
• Do not occur at latitudes greater than 34
• Concentrated on western margins
• Absent near large river mouths
• Two main realms – Caribbean and West Indo Pacific

General principles – geoscientists

• Factors favouring reef growth – symmetrical in both
hemispheres
• Prefer shallow waters
• Avoid high clastic & nutrient input
• Avoid areas influenced by cool, eastern boundary currents and coastal upwelling

There are exceptions – dirty reefs, which are terrigenous and carbonate

Darwin’s model of reef classification suggested that reefs were genetically connected
• Fringing – youngest, barrier and atoll – oldest
o Relationship between reefs was driven by subsidence of volcanos
o Darwin did not account for glacial and inter-glacial cycles causing sea-level rise and fall
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

New model incorporates subsidence, sea-level, multiple growth phases and active positive feedback
• Sedimentation occurs around volcano while it subsides and eventually producing a lagoon
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

GBR is the largest reef province on earth; 2000 km, 270,000 square kilometres
• Many different shallow water reef types that occur within different physiographic and hydrodynamic settings on shelf edge, in
mid platform and as island and coastal fringing reefs
• Several types include
o Ribbon reefs or barrier reefs (Ribbon Reef 5)
o Crescent reefs (Myrmidon)
o Lagoon reefs (One tree)
o Flat topped reefs (Wreck, Wheeler)
o Patches (Morinda Shoals)
o High island reefs (Lizard Island)
o Low wooded island reefs (The Low Isles)
o Fringing reefs (Hayman)
o Detached reefs (Boot-Portlock Reef)
o Deltaic reefs (Pompey Reef)

Coral reef zonation (biologic and sedimentary zones) are physical

parameters and locations within the ecosystem
• Various organisms will have evolved to be adapted and thrive
under these specific conditions within that zone
o Genetics
o Sunlight intensity
o Wave energy
o Turbidity
o Salinity
o Temperature
o Circulation
o Surrounding growth
o Location of reef
• Different growth forms in response to energy
o Shallow reef systems are energy tolerant and corals can organise themselves to minimise exposure to wave energy
o Pocillopora verrucosa has changed form in response to dominant energy

Case study: Great Barrier Reef Ocean Observing System (GBROOS)

• Real time wiring of reef to understand modern processes as they happen

Case study: Holocene reef evolution, One Tree Reef

Major geological factors affecting the development of the GBR include subsidence,
substrate, sea-level and climate change, energy (wind, waves and tides), abiological
(sedimentation) and biological accumulation

Can be simplified to four critical factors

• Substrate (shape and depth)
o All reef grows on top of previous reef
o Previous reef shape influences new reef shape (high rims + low
lagoons – patch reef)
o Pleistocene (~125 ka) better living conditions – shallower waters
o Reefs are comprised 90% of sediment

• Sea level (rate and amplitude)

o Sea level has been volatile for the last 500 ka
o Highstand (high sea-level) – mixed with both
carbonate and siliciclastic dominated
o Lowstand (low sea-level) – siliciclastic dominated
o Sea-level rise = seafloor accretion – keep up
o Sea-level rise < seafloor accretion – catch up
o Sea-level rise > seafloor accretion – give up
o One Tree Reef has relatively kept and caught up
with sea level rise in past
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

• Energy (wind, waves and tides)

o Energy influences surface features and expressions, and coral morphology
o One Tree Reef – energy coming from south case sand and rubble to be distributed -> lagoon infill

• Biological (coral) and abiologic (sediments) growth and/or accumulation

o Main factors are space, light and energy affecting biology
o If there is no space at sea level, high energy – dominated by coralline algae with few species of coral and poor
development
o If there is maximum use of space – dominated by coral with diverse species
o For One Tree Reef – biological growth happens throughout southern sand sheet
• Bioerosion is the process which describes the balance between construction (growth, calcification) and destruction
o Describes a recycling process between biology and sediments
o For One Tree Reef – most of the sedimentation is accumulated on the eastern and western side

Much of understanding of ancient reef systems come from examination of Holocene reef growth in last 10 ka
• Most examples discussed can come from GBR, but can also be applied to reefs anywhere

Main phases of growth are vertical, transitional and lateral

• Reef vertically grows (windward) in response to growth in
sea-level rise
o Different parts of reef don’t reach sea-level at the
same time
• After, reef grows laterally (leeward) in response to higher
energy
o Less space – sedimentation and biogrowth

In exposed reef flats, lagoon accretion goes up, then leeward

• Top of the sample gets younger along a leeward direction

In protected reef flats, seaward accretion is prohibited

• Up then seaward, younger towards a seaward direction

Juvenile
• Residual soil and regolith (sediment coverage) – reef
patches (a)
• Submerged reef – crescent reef (b)
• Minor sand patches – open lagoon reef (c)
Mature (One Tree Reef is an example – lagoon infilling)
• Sandy floor to lagoon – infilling closed lagoon reef (d)
• Lagoon infilling – remnant lagoon (e)
Senile
• Sanded reef flat, shallow sand-moated area, rampart –
planar reef (f)
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

Major threats to coral reefs

• Anthropogenic
o Coral mining
o Overfishing, shipping grounding and tourism
o Runoff (chemical) and turbidity
(sedimentation from agriculture) Major uncertainties exist about
• Natural • Natural vs anthropogenic factors
o Sea temperature (bleaching) and level rising • Impacts of observed and predicted changes
(drowning) • 100 to 500-year outlook
o Ocean acidification – increase in CO2 • Geological perspective
concentration
• Big questions
o Which threats are most dangerous?
o What are the predictions for global reefs?
o Are they valid and reasonable?
o Need appropriate geological context

Future global climate changes – impacts and predictions vary depending

on factor considered and over what spatial-temporal scale considered
• Global average temperature (land and sea) and storm intensity
are increasing reef health
o Leads to coral bleaching (worse during ENSO) – 16%
global reefs damaged and bleaching becoming more
widespread
o Coral bleaching occurs from accumulated heat stress –
degree heating weeks; 4-5-week period where reefs are
subject to 1 degree above average temperature
maximum
• Bleaching occurred mostly in the inner and mid shelf in 1998
• Upper and mid shelf were severely affected in 2016 and lower
shelf was exposed to cyclones
o Direct correlation with SST rises and bleaching
• Storm intensity (maximum wind speeds, latitudinal extent) is increasing where frequency is decreasing
o Directly impacts through reef damage
o Indirectly impacts through sediment, runoff and salinity
o Implication for immediate disturbance hypothesis (downwards concaving for species diversity)
• Implications for climate change is the forcing of corals to adapt, hence coral coverage has to decline
o Only more resistant and simpler species of coral will survive or adapt
o Tabular Acropora forms declined and shifted towards brooding Pocillopora

Case study: sea-level rise

• Sea-level rise alone is probably not a problem, but it depends on the rate and amplitudes of the rise
• Are/will Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets fail?
• Lot of local and reef specific factors

Case study: SST increase and storm activity

• Oceans are warming, and intensity and penetration of cyclones (going N and S) are increasing
• GBR bleaching in 2016 – 2017 led to the massive coral morality in N central GBR (cover loss and loss of complex forms)
• Not a response only to SST increases, but also factors such as ENSO and host vs. symbiont
• Inner shelf and outer shelf respond differently to these changes and bleaching
• Movements of reefs latitudinally further south and north to more comfortable SST environments
• Future outlook may implicate increased frequency and severity of global bleaching, detriment of reef health and type, and
force further coral acclimation
• Geological perspective
o Corals have survived during warmer climates in the past
o ENSO has also occurred, thus why the bleaching
o Key issue is the rate of SST increasing (0.7 vs 0.04 per 100 years) – corals cannot adapt fast enough

Case study: Ocean acidification

• Ocean pH is increasing, and it is getting more difficult for some reef biota to build their skeletons
o Decreased pH -> decreased aragonite state -> decreased calcification
o Reef biota will respond differently – winners and losers (coral up-regulation of calcifying fluid)
GEOS2115 – Reef logging and sea-level change

• Future outlook will concern the synergising effect between OT and STT and its effect on coral and the overall marine
ecosystem
• Geological perspective
o Past atmospheric CO2 was higher during PETM – major ocean extinction
o Rate of pH change and aragonite saturation rate is faster – corals cannot adapt fast enough

Importance of understanding their impact of multiple stresses on coral reef

systems
• Increased CO2
o Ocean pH decrease
o Calcification and aragonite state transition reduces
• Increased atmospheric temperature
o Coral bleaching through rising SST
o Sea-level rise
• Climate change
o Increased storm activity – erosion and breakage of coral
o Increased dust and sediment – increased turbidity and less light

Predictions about future coral reefs may be dire but there are possible solutions
• Predictions
o 40% decline in coral reef calcification
o Increased frequency of bleaching
o Coral drowning
o Geographic/diversity range decrease
o Framework susceptible to breakdown
o Phase shifts
• Solutions
o Drastic and immediate reduction in CO2 emissions – sequestration
o Protection from local and regional stresses – enhance resilience to global stressor, MPAs
o Identify which coral reefs and parts of coral reefs (mesophotic?) are most resilient and protect those; factored into
MPA design
o Better understanding of responses (adaptation?) at organism level
o Improve early warning, seasonal outlooks and real time monitoring (GBROOS) – better idea of impacts and
responses
o More radical assisted evolution approaches (assisted migration, hybridisation of coral host and symbionts to be
more resilient – can we/should we speed up evolution
o Geoengineering solutions (cloud seeding and screening, cold water pumping, re-populations)

What is the geological perspective?

• What can we learn by investigating the response of coral reefs on different timescales?
• Glacial-interglacial 100,000s years vs. centennial-millennial 100s to 1000s years

Useful to objectively view the global change as part of a geological perspective

• Purpose is to identify any past occurrences to allow for better prediction and to study how reefs have responded in the past
to better understand their adaptability
• While the GBR is very young, it has died multiple times in the past and returned with similar coral assemblages as before
• Glacial-interglacial 100,000s years vs. centennial-millennial 100s to 1000s years
o Corals are quite robust over glacial-interglacial timescales
o Corals exhibit dynamism in lateral migration and sensitivity to rising sea levels and temperature over centennial-
millennial timescales
• Main issue of climate change is the high rate of change, which is unprecedented on all timescales