Pricing
Pricing
Pricing
April 1, 2009
Prepared by
Leonard Herchen, P. Eng.
4100, 400 - Third Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 4H2
Internet: http://www.GLJPC.com
April 1, 2009
GLJ Petroleum Consultants has prepared the enclosed price and market forecasts after a
comprehensive review of information available through to March 2009. Information sources
include numerous government agencies, industry publications, Canadian oil refiners and natural
gas marketers. The accuracy of all factual data, from all sources has been accepted as represented
without detailed investigation by GLJ Petroleum Consultants. The forecasts presented herein are
based on an informed interpretation of currently available data. While they are considered
reasonable at this time, users of these forecasts should understand the inherent high uncertainty in
forecasting any commodity or market. These forecasts will be revised periodically as market,
economic and political conditions change. These future revisions may be significant.
GLJ Petroleum Consultants has completed our commodity price forecasts as presented on the
attachments. Revisions in the forecasts reflective of current market conditions have been
incorporated. Widely followed benchmarks are presented graphically below:
20.00 1.05
18.00 0.95
16.00 0.85
Exchange Rate ($US/$Cdn)
14.00 0.75
12.00 0.65
l n
u
t d
b C
M 10.00 0.55 $
/
M S
/ U
$ $
8.00 0.45
AECO-C ($Cdn/MMbtu)
6.00 0.35
4.00 0.25
2.00 0.15
Henry Hub ($US/MMbtu)
0.00 0.05
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
160.00 1.05
145.00 0.95
130.00 0.85
Exchange Rate ($US/$Cdn)
115.00 0.75
100.00 0.65
l n
e d
rr 85.00 C
a 0.55 /$
/B S
U
$ $
70.00 Light Sweet @ Edmonton 0.45
55.00 0.35
40.00 0.25
WTI ($US/Bbl)
25.00 0.15
10.00 0.05
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Historical futures contract price is an average of the daily settlement price of the near month contract over the calendar month.
Revised 03-31-09
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GLJ Petroleum Consultants
Table 2
GLJ Petroleum Consultants
Natural Gas and Sulphur
Price Forecast
Effective April 1, 2009
Henry Hub Nymex Midwest Alberta Plant Gate Saskatchewan Plant Gate British Columbia Alberta
Near Month Contract Price @ Chicago AECO/NIT Spot Spot Sulphur Sulphur
Constant Then Then Then Constant Then Westcoast Spot FOB at Plant
2009 $ Current Current Current 2009 $ Current ARP Aggregator Alliance SaskEnergy Spot Sumas Spot Station 2 Plant Gate Vancouver Gate
Year $US/mmbtu $US/mmbtu $US/mmbtu $Cdn/mmbtu $/mmbtu $/mmbtu $/mmbtu $/mmbtu $/mmbtu $/mmbtu $/mmbtu $US/mmbtu $/mmbtu $/mmbtu $US/LT $Cdn/LT
1996 3.26 2.51 2.73 1.39 1.63 1.26 1.63 N/A N/A 1.52 1.28 1.32 1.49 1.47 36.28 6.48
1997 3.17 2.47 2.75 1.85 2.18 1.70 1.97 N/A N/A 1.85 1.75 1.71 1.90 1.98 34.75 5.12
1998 2.73 2.16 2.20 2.03 2.37 1.87 1.94 N/A N/A 2.05 2.13 1.60 2.15 2.00 24.59 -6.51
1999 2.90 2.31 2.33 2.92 3.45 2.75 2.48 N/A N/A 2.82 2.97 2.15 2.93 2.78 33.74 6.93
2000 5.30 4.32 3.96 5.08 6.05 4.93 4.50 4.44 N/A 4.79 5.16 4.15 5.06 4.88 38.14 13.59
2001 4.82 4.03 4.45 6.23 7.27 6.07 5.41 4.97 5.29 5.72 6.20 4.57 6.32 6.29 18.29 -14.67
2002 3.92 3.36 3.25 4.04 4.53 3.88 3.88 3.64 3.66 4.04 4.08 2.68 4.18 3.93 29.38 3.04
2003 6.24 5.47 5.46 6.66 7.41 6.49 6.13 5.87 6.15 6.41 6.68 4.66 6.45 6.32 59.81 39.83
2004 6.87 6.18 6.13 6.88 7.44 6.70 6.31 6.16 6.39 6.48 6.85 5.26 6.56 6.45 62.99 38.61
2005 9.81 9.00 8.24 8.58 9.17 8.42 8.30 8.27 8.29 8.36 8.31 7.13 8.22 8.12 63.50 33.77
2006 7.45 6.99 6.93 7.16 7.42 6.96 6.57 6.36 6.34 6.67 6.97 6.27 6.58 6.45 55.07 19.27
2007 7.44 7.12 6.83 6.65 6.72 6.43 6.20 6.13 5.86 6.18 6.40 6.52 6.40 6.25 81.66 42.03
2008 9.11 8.90 8.91 8.16 8.11 7.92 7.88 7.82 7.84 8.07 8.03 8.33 8.21 8.09 497.39 488.64
2009 Q1 (e) 4.48 4.48 5.06 5.22 5.01 5.01 5.87 4.51 4.83 4.83 4.83 5.17 5.71 5.57 97.94 78.27
2009 Q2 4.00 4.00 4.10 4.01 3.81 3.81 3.77 3.63 3.59 3.90 3.92 3.45 3.81 3.64 50.00 18.73
2009 Q3 4.50 4.50 4.60 4.63 4.42 4.42 4.37 4.22 4.17 4.50 4.54 3.95 4.43 4.25 50.00 18.73
2009 Q4 5.75 5.75 5.85 6.17 5.95 5.95 5.88 5.68 5.64 6.01 6.08 5.20 5.97 5.78 50.00 18.73
2009 Full Year 4.68 4.68 4.90 5.01 4.80 4.80 4.97 4.51 4.56 4.81 4.84 4.44 4.98 4.81 61.99 33.62
2009 Q2-Q4 4.75 4.75 4.85 4.94 4.73 4.73 4.67 4.51 4.47 4.80 4.85 4.20 4.74 4.56 50.00 18.73
2010 6.37 6.50 6.50 6.93 6.57 6.70 6.64 6.46 6.16 6.77 6.84 5.95 6.73 6.53 65.00 35.31
2011 6.97 7.25 7.35 7.71 7.18 7.47 7.40 7.20 6.97 7.53 7.62 6.70 7.51 7.30 75.00 45.24
2012 7.30 7.75 7.85 7.97 7.28 7.73 7.66 7.45 7.23 7.79 7.88 7.20 7.77 7.56 75.00 41.75
2013 7.62 8.25 8.35 8.16 7.32 7.92 7.85 7.64 7.43 7.98 8.07 7.70 7.96 7.76 75.00 38.08
2014 7.93 8.75 8.85 8.47 7.45 8.23 8.16 7.94 7.74 8.29 8.38 8.20 8.27 8.07 75.00 35.95
2015 8.00 9.01 9.11 8.75 7.55 8.50 8.42 8.20 8.00 8.55 8.66 8.46 8.55 8.34 75.00 35.95
2016 8.00 9.19 9.29 8.94 7.56 8.69 8.61 8.38 8.18 8.74 8.85 8.64 8.74 8.53 75.00 35.95
2017 8.00 9.37 9.47 9.13 7.58 8.88 8.80 8.56 8.36 8.93 9.04 8.82 8.93 8.72 75.00 35.95
2018 8.00 9.56 9.66 9.33 7.59 9.07 8.99 8.75 8.55 9.12 9.24 9.01 9.13 8.91 75.00 35.95
2019+ 8.00 +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr
+2.0%/yr+2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr +2.0%/yr
Unless otherwise stated, the gas price reference point is the receipt point on the applicable provincial gas transmission system known as the plant gate.
The plant gate price represents the price before raw gas gathering and processing charges are deducted.
AECO-C Spot refers to the one month price averaged for the year.
Revised 03-31-09
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GLJ Petroleum Consultants