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RISING TENSION BETWEEN THE US –IRAN: ITS REGIONAL IMPACT AND WAYS
FORWARD

Introduction

1. The US-Iran relations are structurally conflictual since the Islamic Revolution in
1979. The animosity is rooted in the US-hostage crisis, freezing of Iranian assets and
differing views on the security of Middle East. The domestic politics and the US regional
allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia are the major challenges to stress-free relations.
The U.S. - Iran relations have remained very tense and hostile. It deteriorated further as
the Trump administration in May 2018, Donald Trump decided to pull out of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), announcing he would re-impose economic
sanctions on Iran effective from 4 November that year.

2. Since then, Washington and Tehran remain locked in a prolonged standoff with
no end in sight. The US has imposed crushing sanctions on Iran’s economy over its

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support for terrorism and its growing missile program. After withdrawing from the 2015
nuclear deal last year; Iran has fought back by pronouncing to destabilize Straits of
Hormuz and downing an American military drone. The recent suspected attacks of six
oil tankers has also prompted international alarm that stand off could escalate in to an
open confrontation. But very recently the escalation has now reached beyond the
horizon of US-Iran after Iran breached the limit (300kg) of stockpiling enriched Uranium
raising fears over future of imperiled nuclear deal. 2015 nuclear agreement is
considered to bear the significance for strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation
regime. Once, that deal has been broken, it has become globally a very contentious
issue which requires in depth study and monitoring of the situation.

3. At this backdrop, this paper will initially highlight likely causes of recent escalation
between the US and Iran. Thereafter, the paper will unfold the possible outcome of the
conflict. Finally the paper will suggest some ways forward of such rivalry keeping global
energy, regional stability and security in purview.

Aim
4. The aim of this paper is to highlight the possible outcome of US-Iran conflict with
a view to suggesting ways forward keeping global security, regional stability and
security in purview.

Likely Causes of US-Iran Conflict

5. Geographic and Strategic Importance of Iran. Iran's long border with

America's Cold War rival, the Soviet Union, and its position as the largest, most
powerful country in the oil-rich Persian Gulf, made Iran a "pillar" of US foreign policy in
the Middle East. Iran lies at the very heart of the Greater Middle East. Iran is home to
the world’s third largest oil reserves that in fact cannot be fully exploited because of the
country’s long international isolation. Also, Iran’s strategic position makes it able to
blockade the Hormuz strait, a bottleneck on the world’s most important oil sea route.
The Iranian plateau is located between the Caucasus and the Indian Sea. Thus, it could
be a valid alternative to export the oil and gas from the Caspian basin without crossing
Russia. Therefore, Iran has got immense importance both geographically and

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strategically in the region as well as in the world. US since her regeneration always
wanted to exploit Iran and her geo-strategic importance for effective domination on
Middle East and take grip of oil based economy. But Iran, since 1979 never showed
sign of allegiance to US government rather opposed USA and tried building up their
economic and military might. Failing to dominate Iran, US had been always unruly to
Iran.

The 1979 Revolution

6. The 1979 Revolution ousted the pro-American Shah and replaced him with the
anti-American Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who referred to America
as the "Great Satan". The same year Islamic revolutionaries occupied the American
embassy in Tehran and took American diplomats hostage. The 52 American diplomats
were held hostage for 444 days. In the United States, the hostage-taking was seen as a
violation of a centuries-old principle of international law that granted diplomats immunity
from arrest and diplomatic compounds sovereignty in the territory of the host country
they occupy. This incident bear a strong influence on us policy towards Iranian’s present
regime and it is thought of one of the prime reasons behind US-Iran conflict since then.

7. Iran’s Nuclear Program Iran's nuclear program started in 1960 and by the
passage of time they developed number of power plants (Bushehr, Arak, Saghand and
Natanz) which are capable of producing necessary ingredients and alloys for nuclear
reactors. A report of El Baradei’s confirmed, Iran used both enrichment methods to
secretly enrich uranium, enriching to at least 1.2% using centrifuges and up to 15%
using lasers. Given a great chance like this to build nuclear weapon to Iran. But Iran
claims that nuclear power is necessary for them as they have booming population and
their burnt fossil fuel in large amounts harms environment drastically. Since 2002 the
US feels that a nuclear Iran in the region would severely increase the risks to Western
countries (particularly the United States) of nuclear attack and could potentially act as a
catalyst for other Middle Eastern nations to develop weapons of their own. US and P5+1
(France, England, China, Russia, UK and Germany) countries always wanted to control
the nuclear power of Iran and finally Iran agreed to come to an agreement named
JCPOA in 2015 under President Obama’s region. However, that deal was broken by
President Trump in 2018 and he imposed lot of sanctions against Iran. Such sanctions

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doomed Iran’s economy and as retaliation they increased the stockpiling of Uranium
breaching the JCPOA act in the first week of July 2019.

8. Israeli National Security. Iran and Israel has long history of rivalry.
Though Israel is apparently very strong in military might and backed up by nuclear
Warhead Capabilities still Iran has progressed quite a lot in recent years in terms of
military power. Besides Iran has lot of allies in Middle East asia who can support their
cause. USA being only all weather friendly country has always backed the Israel
government. They are always antagonistic to Iran on Israel issue which escalates the
tension.

9. Influence of Regional Allies of USA. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies (UAE,
Bahrain) basked after Washington withdrew from the international nuclear accord with
Tehran. They considered this as a political victory over Iran, their rival for regional
influence. These countries have always interpreted that Iran had been supporting
Militias, spreading terrorism in Middle East and threatening them of Proxy wars. Being a
close ally, USA always took the complaints with cognigence, and it has always been a
cause to escalate tension.

10. US Hegemonies towards Iran. Most of the analysts including the western
countries blame that US is primarily responsible for the rise of tension against Iran. US
first broke the JCPOA deal with Iran in 2018. Then it applied all manner of non-military
pressure using its clout to impose economic sanctions, boycotts, and diplomatic
isolation on that nation. Then it created military pressure by ostentatiously sending its
troops into the region (even though it already has military bases pretty much
everywhere) and even imposing blockades. And then it waited for the inevitable
‘provocation’, where Iran responded. These hegemonies escalated the tension and
brought a war like situation between two countries.

11. Iran’s Aggressive Response. Iran has always been aggressive after USA
withdrew their nuclear accord with Iran. They threatened to destabilize the straits of
Hormuz, strengthened their military alertness and started proxy war. They also

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announced to increase their Uranium stocks and declared that they have crossed the
set limits of stockpiling. Recently they destroyed one of the US Drones which compelled
US president to almost call for deadly strikes against Iran. Recent oil tanker destruction
has further worsened the scenario and it was felt that the trumpet of war is about to be
blown.

12. Favourable Diplomatic Relation of Iran with Few Influential Powers. Iran
has got favourable diplomatic relation with Russia and China in terms of energy
exporting. They allowed UNSC sanctions to be passed against Iran to develop wider rift
between Tehran and Washington. As American-Iranian tensions broaden, Iranian
relations with Russia and China become closer and entrenched. This is why both China
and Russia have refused to join 2012 unilateral sanctions by Washington. The Russians
have also warned the European Union to stop being Washington’s pawns.

Impact of US-Iran Tension

13. General. US president Trumps unilateral withdrawal in May 2018 from Iran
Nuclear deal (JCPOA) and imposition of further sanctions regimes on countries buying
Iranian oil (primarily China, India, and Japan) to economically cripple Iran with
devastating impact on IRGC and Iranian backed proxies in the Middle East has created
enormous impact on Iran and their economy. As a result, Iran has also retaliated with
the stockpiling of uranium, downing one military drone and exhibiting military might. The
trumpet of war has been blown. All these action-counter actions have far reaching
impact on global energy, trade, economy and regional stability.

14. Near War Situation Threatening for Global Security. USA has moved
nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and strategic bombers to the
Gulf region. The US already has her military bases in the Gulf region and Afghanistan,
with her allies like Israel, UAE and KSA ready to join in the war, along with British navy
frigates to beef up US 5th naval fleet already stationed at Bahrain i.e. next door to Saudi
Arabia. This development has given rise to many speculations, military invasion of Iran
being the leading possibility. It has resulted tension in Middle East and tremendously
affected the global security.

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15. Destruction of Fluent Economic Flow US imposed economic sanctions

on Iran has affected the economy of Iran very badly. Their rate of currency has fallen to
a great extent. At the same time the oil importing nations are badly affected as China,
India, Japan are the largest importers of crude oil from Iran. Trump has played a crucial
game which has affected regional economy to a large extent causing economic
recession.

16. Rising of Anti Government Campaign. As US has turned down JCPOA

and imposed sanctions on Iran, the dissidents have raised their voice to bring Rouhani
and his legislation down. This situation has created hue and cry within Iran and put their
solidarity in big question. If the situation further aggravates, US and her allies will be
most beneficiary of exploiting the situation and take a firm grip on Iran and winning the
war without even waging.

17. Exploiting the Tension by Existing Religious Terrorist Group. US-Iran

tension has raised number of militant activities in the region. KSA, Israel and UAE have
already claimed that Hezbollah, Houti group and other terrorist organizations have
started sectarian violence which is going to badly hurt the Arabs. If these out scales, an
impending war will be inevitable where global security will be at stake.

18. Raise of Nuclear Threat. Iran though did not show any sign of nuclear
proliferation since 1979, yet it has breached the scale of stockpiling the uranium since
the tension has escalated. This gives an ominous sign as Israel also threatened of
nuclear strikes against Iran whereas US President was alleged to be 10 minutes away
of launching a strike against Iran. Such escalation might provoke any countries and out
of ego, a nuclear war may be poised which will surely be the last thing the world
expects.

19. Instability in the Global Oil Market. Recent escalation has had its
tremendous effect on trade of crude oil. The Persian Gulf has been threatened number
of times and oil tankers were exploded. Straits of Hormuz was blocked and Iran also
threatened stop the trade route had US not remove sanction. All those have created
instable situation in global oil market which will hurt the economy immensely.

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20. Arms Race in the Middle East. The escalation has opened up an armed race
in the middle-east and billions of dollars are being invested by the belligerent Arabs
buying the expensive guns.

Ways Forward to Reduce Escalation

21. Restoring Diplomatic Relations. US-Iran must attempt to restore their

relations through bilateral talks, negotiations and easing up of existing sanctions.
Members of UN Security Council countries can act as true negotiators to restore
diplomatic relations. The countries need to come to an agreement and both US and Iran
should be positive to allow to maintain other countries status quo in terms of maintaining
JCPOA act, trade economy, control or domination of own territories and influence of the
region.

22. Diplomacy and Possible US Reentry to JCPOA. US reentry to JCPOA and

thereafter enforcing Iran to abide by the terms and conditions of JCPOA should be the
prime focus to ease up the tension between two nations. For this the EU nations can
attempt bolster diplomatic measures to calm USA. On contrary, Russia and China, the
two greater allies of Iran should take pragmatic steps to convince Iranian key
leadership.

23. Checking Own Proxies. Both US and Iran has to settle the issue through
amicable approach. US should reconsider before strengthening troops to its nearest
bases and threatening Iran of the near war. At the same time Iran should also stop
provoking US stopping conflict in straits of Hormuz, cyber threats, and maintaining
stable relationship with US allies.

24. Ensuring Safer Trade through Straits of Hormuz. Both Iran and US should
ensure smooth trade flow through the straits of Hormuz so that it does not add fuel to
fire. Both the countries should reduce their force deployment along the narrow strait to
ensure expected flow of trade.

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25. Ease up Sanctions on Trade of Iranian Crude Oil. US has imposed sanctions
on exporting Iran’s crude oil to the outer world. This sanction affects not only the
economy of Iran but also the affects economy of China, India and other regional
superpower to a great extent. ‘When Trade stops, war starts’-keeping this in mind, US
should be conciliating to ease up economic sanctions against Iran.

26. Maintaining Relationship with US Allies. Iran should endeavor to ease up

tensions with Israel, KSA, UAE, Bahrain and other US allied countries so that a status
quo prevails in middle east and countries are not affected by threats of insecurity.

27. Change of Tone from Super Powers. Mistrust plays a powerful role in
the US-Iran conflict. As world powers move towards new talks with Iran, the super
powers, especially US must abandon its delusion that the dual track approach, offering
simultaneous carrots and sticks, will work with Tehran. It must instead adopt a more
pragmatic approach that is sensitive to both the Iranian cultural sentiments and political
realities.

28. Change of Western Attitude to Iran’s Nuclear Program. The Western

powers particularly US oppose the present Iranian nuclear program more for geo-
political reasons than any legalities. Nothing has changed significantly since 1979 in
Iran except its political system and governance. So, the reason for US opposition to
Iran’s nuclear program is its present regime. Therefore, change of attitude and positive
posture of western powers can solve the on-going problem.

29. Avoid Unilateral Action. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s

(IAEA) report brings attention to Israel’s potential military action in response to a
belligerent Iran. The US reaction to the report, and the situation as a whole, must show
tremendous restraint in the face of a growing call to military action. US must heed the
lessons of Iraq and wait for international consensus that avoids unilateral action by the
United States.

30. Lessons Learnt from Previous Conflicts. The likely impacts of war and the
lessons learnt from the previous conflicts in the region should be taken into

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consideration by all powers, influencing countries and UNSC to decide on future actions
on this issue.

31. Role of Arab Leaders. Arab leaders should take steps to improve the
relationship between Iran and USA as well as Israel. They should sit with USA
confirming that they are not anxious on Iran’s nuclear project; rather they are anxious of
possible war in Iran which will ultimately break middle-east peace.

Conclusion

32. Since the beginning of his political career Donald Trump has expressed his hard
line attitude towards Iran and more particularly he was against the nuclear deal with
Iran. After one year of U.S. withdrawal from JCPOA the U.S.-IRAN relation has got
more volatile. The U.S. intervention in Iran after the Islamic Revolution was mainly due
to nuclear issues. Besides this nuclear issue there are some other key factors that
brought both the countries in today’s military escalation. Iran being at the heart of
Middle East, having large oil reserve and having control on Strait of Hormuz, which is
the only passage to the ocean from many oil-producing countries is of immense
geographical and strategic importance. U.S. is also concern about global alliance of Iran
which include Iran’s relation with China and Russia. The other causes of the tension
between two countries are Iran’s relation with Israel and US allied Arab nations, relation
with China and India, Iran’s aggressive attitude against US sanction etcetera.

33. US intervention on Iran has got immense impact on Global security, economy
and stability. At the same time, Iran is also adamant to regain her right of economic
trade. Such hegemony has created lot of impacts already. It has influenced force
exhibition, threats of nuclear proliferation, affected global trade and economy, and
raised sectarian violence and extremism, terrorist influence in Middle East and so on. It
can be said that both US and Iran are involved in such a rise of tension which is simply
beyond global acceptance.

34. War should not be the solution to any problem. To minimize the devastating
effects both the countries should be positive to improve bilateral relationship. US should

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re-enter the JCPOA deal and ease up sanctions against Iran. US should allow Iran to
export their crude oil through the Persian Gulf to China, India and the consumer nations.
At the same time Iran should also check the proxy war and bring normalcy to the Gulf.
Positive posture of western powers towards Iran’s nuclear program may bring the
solution to the problem. Number of options should be thought other than war for coming
to a solution during peace talks between all the influential countries. The US must show
tremendous restraint in the face of a growing call to military action and wait for
international consensus that avoids unilateral action by the US. All should decide future
action considering the lessons learnt from past conflicts.

Recommendations

35. Basing on the detail analysis followings are some of the recommendations for the
global peace and world stability:

a. US-Iran both must shift their approach related to JCPOA deal. US must
re-enter JCPOA and Iran must adhere to the nuclear deal for ease of tension.
b. US-Iran key leaders should hold number of bilateral talks and make new
agreements of truce for ensuring global peace, stability and trade balance.

Dhaka Cantonment ABDULLAH RAIF KHAN

Major
July 2019 Student Officer

Distribution:

Directing Staff

Notes:

1. Cut down first gp wordings to one fourth.

2. Cut down second group wordings to half.
3. Keep third group, intro wordings.
4. Increase conclusion.

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5. Link up and tie up loose ends.

6. Add maps, graphs, charts in most appropriate places.

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