Al-Qadisiyah University Dr.

Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

3. Mode Choice
Mode choice is the process where the means of traveling is determined. The means
of travel is referred to the travel mode, which may be by private automobile, public
transportation, walking, bicycling, or other means. How desirable a travel mode is
usually is expressed using utilities. In most travel models, mode choice is applied
to travel that has already been estimated, meaning that mode choice is applied to a
trip or tour, or group of trips or tours, where the origin and destination are already
known.

Mode choice is an important part of models that are used for analyses such as:

• Major transportation investment projects since they may attract travelers not
only from competing facilities but also competing modes;
• Transit service changes, which may encourage or discourage travelers from
using transit;
• Long range forecasts, where changes in demographics or in travel conditions
(e.g. increased congestion) may alter the relative worths of different modes
for some or all travelers;
• Pricing policy analyses, which may discourage travelers from using modes
with increased prices; and
• Land use planning analyses, where changes in development patterns may
make certain modes more or less attractive relative to others.

3.1 Types of Mode Choice Models

In a conventional four-step model, mode choice is considered the third step in the
process, following trip distribution and preceding network assignment. In these
models, the outputs of trip distribution are person trip tables, which are matrices of
trips where the rows and columns represent some aggregate geography, usually
transportation analysis zones (TAZ). By convention, at this point in the modeling

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

process, the rows correspond to trip productions and the columns to trip attractions.
The mode choice process determines the percentage of trips made by each mode
for each cell in the matrix (zone pair).

Depending on the level of detail required, three types of transit estimating

procedures are used:

(1) Direct generation of transit trips,

(2) Use of trip end models, and

(3) Trip interchange modal split models.

3.1.1 Direct Generation Models

Transit trips can be generated directly, by estimating either total person trips or
auto driver trips.

Example 12.7 Estimating Mode Choice by Direct Trip Generation

Determine the number of transit trips per day in a zone which has 5000 people
living on 50 acres. The auto ownership is 40% of zero autos per household and
60% of one auto per household.

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

Solution:

1. Calculate the number of persons per acre: 5000 / 50 =100.

2. Determine the number of transit trips per day per 1000 persons (from Figure
12.8) to calculate the total of all transit trips per day for the zone.

This method assumes that the attributes of the system are not relevant. Factors such
as travel time, cost, and convenience are not considered. These so-called “pretrip”
distribution models apply when transit service is poor and riders are “captive,” or
when transit service is excellent, and “choice” clearly favors transit. When
highway and transit modes “compete” for auto riders, then system factors are
considered.

3.1.2 Trip End Models

To determine the percentage of total person or auto trips that will use transit,
estimates are made prior to the trip distribution phase based on land-use or
socioeconomic characteristics of the zone. This method does not incorporate the
quality of service. The procedure follows:
1. Generate total person trip productions and attractions by trip purpose.
2. Compute the urban travel factor.
3. Determine the percentage of these trips by transit using a mode choice curve.
4. Apply auto occupancy factors.
5. Distribute transit and auto trips separately.

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

The mode choice model shown in Figure 12.9 is based on two factors: households
per auto and persons per square mile. The product of these variables is called the
urban travel factor (UTF). Percentage of travel by transit will increase in an S
curve fashion as the UTF increases.

Example 12.8 Estimating Trip Productions by Transit

The total number of productions in a zone is 10,000 trips/day. The number of

households per auto is 1.80, and residential density is 15,000 persons/square mile.
Determine the percent of residents who can be expected to use transit.

Solution: Compute the urban travel factor

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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

3.1.3 Trip Interchange Models

In this method, system level-of-service variables are considered, including relative

travel time, relative travel cost, economic status of the trip maker, and relative
travel service. An example of this procedure is illustrated using the QRS method
which takes account of service parameters in estimating mode choice. The QRS
method is based on the following relationship:

The data required for estimating mode choice include (1) distance between zones
by auto and transit, (2) transit fare, (3) out-of-pocket auto cost, (4) parking cost, (5)
highway and transit speed, (6) exponent values, b, (7) median income, and (8)
excess time, which includes the time required to walk to a transit vehicle and time
waiting or transferring. Assume that the time worked per year is 120,000 min.

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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

Example 12.9 Computing Mode Choice Using the QRS Model.

To illustrate the application of the QRS method, assume that the data shown in
Table 12.21 have been developed for travel between a suburban zone S and a
downtown zone D. Determine the percent of work trips by auto and transit. An
exponent value of 2.0 is used for work travel. Median income is $24,000 per year.

Solution: Use Eq. 12.6.

Thus, the mode choice of travel by transit between zones S and D is 58.4%, and
by highway the value is 41.6%. These percentages are applied to the estimated trip
distribution values to determine the number of trips by each mode. If for example,

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

the number of work trips between zones S and D was computed to be 500, then the
number by auto would be 500 *0.416 = 208, and by transit, the number of trips
would be 500*0.584 =292.

3.2 Logit Models

The Logit Model, widely used for transportation forecasting in various forms. The
logit model is simply a log ratio of the probability of choosing a mode to the
probability of not choosing a mode. With a choice model we are explaining the
share of travelers using a mode (or the probability that an individual traveler uses a
mode multiplied by the number of travelers.

For example, assume that the utility of each mode is:

This form is called the logit model, as illustrated in Figure 12.10 and provides a
convenient way to compute mode choice. Choice models are utilized within the
urban transportation planning process, in transit marketing studies, and to directly
estimate travel demand.

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

Example 12.10 Use of Logit Model to Compute Mode Choice

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

4 Traffic Assignment

The final step in the transportation forecasting process is to determine the actual
street and highway routes that will be used and the number of automobiles and
buses that can be expected on each highway segment.

Traffic assignment models are used to estimate the traffic flows on a network.
These models take as input a matrix of flows that indicate the volume of traffic
between origin and destination (O-D) pairs. They also take input on the network
topology, link characteristics, and link performance functions. The flows for each
O-D pair are loaded onto the network based on the travel time or impedance of the
alternative paths that could carry this traffic.

Traffic assignment is a key element in the urban travel demand forecasting process.
The traffic assignment model predicts the network flows that are associated with
future planning scenarios, and generates estimates of the link travel times and
related attributes that are the basis for benefits estimation and air quality impacts.
The traffic assignment model is also used to generate the estimates of network
performance that are used in the mode choice and trip distribution or destination
choice stages of many models.

To carry out a trip assignment, the following data are required: (1) number of
trips that will be made from one zone to another (this information was determined
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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

in the trip distribution phase), (2) available highway or transit routes between
zones, (3) how long it will take to travel on each route, (4) a decision rule (or
algorithm) that explains how motorists or transit users select a route, and (5)
external trips that were not considered in the previous trip generation and
distribution steps.

4.1 Basic Approaches

Three basic approaches can be used for traffic assignment purposes:

(1) Diversion curves,

(2) Minimum time path (all-or-nothing) assignment, and

(3) Minimum time path with capacity restraint.

4.1.1 Diversion Curves

This method is similar in approach to a mode choice curve. The traffic between
two routes is determined as a function of relative travel time or cost. Figure 12.12
on page 626 illustrates a diversion curve based on travel time ratio.

4.1.2 Minimum Path (all-or-nothing) Algorithm

The traffic assignment process is illustrated using the minimum path algorithm.
This method is selected because it is commonly used, generally produces accurate
results, and adequately demonstrates the basic principles involved. The minimum
time path method assigns all trips to those links that comprise the shortest time
path between the two zones.

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

Example: To find the minimum path from any node to node 1, follow the path
backwards. Thus, for example, the links on the minimum path from zone A to zone
B is (A to B) which is 3 min , and the paths from A to E are (A to B, B to D, D to
E) with 9 min, (A to D, D to E) with 9 min, and (A to C, C to E) with 7 min. This
process is then repeated for the other zones to produce the skim trees for each of
the zones in the study area. So in this case, path (A-C-C-E)produces the lowest
travel time at 7 min.

Example 12.16: Network Loading Using Minimum Path Method

The links that are on the minimum path for each of the nodes connecting node 1
are shown in Table 12.23. Also shown are the number of auto trips between zone 1
and all other zones. From these results, the number of trips on each link is
determined.

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

To illustrate, link 1 to 2 is used by trips from node 1 to nodes 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, l2,

15, and 16. Thus, the trips between these node pairs are assigned to link 1 to 2 as
illustrated in Table 12.23. The volumes are 50, 75, 80, 60, 30, 80, 25, 20, and 85
for a total of 505 trips on link 1 to 2 from node 1.

4.1.3 Minimum time path with capacity restraint

Capacity restraint assignment attempts to approximate an equilibrium solution

by iterating between all-or- nothing traffic loadings and recalculating link travel
times based on a congestion function that reflects link capacity. Using relationships
between volume and travel time (or speed) similar to those derived in Chapter 6, it
is possible to recalculate the new link travel time. A reassignment is then made
based on these new values. The iteration process continues until a balance is
achieved, such that the link travel time based on the loaded volume does not
change with successive assignments.

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College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

The speed–volume relationship most commonly used in computer programs was

developed by the U.S. Department of Transportation and it is called a link
performance function and expressed in the following formula

Example 12.17 Computing Capacity Restrained Travel Times

In Example 12.16, the volume on link 1 to 5 was 485, and the travel time was 2
minutes. If the capacity of the link is 500, determine the link travel time that should
be used for the next traffic assignment iteration.
Solution:

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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture5

The capacity restraint relationship given in Eq. 12.13 can be generalized by

allowing the coefficients to be adjusted to corridor-specific or roadway-type, as
follows.

Overview of the Four-Step Travel Demand Model

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