The longevity

of the Royal Family

A tale of two dynasties

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 1

Note on the author
Professor Les Mayhew is Head of Global Research at ILC UK and
a professor of statistics in the Faculty of Actuarial Science and
Insurance at Bayes Business School, City, University of London. He
is an Honorary Fellow of the Faculty of Actuaries and a member of
the Royal Economic Society. He is a former senior civil servant in
the Department of Health and Social Security, Department of Social
Security, and the Treasury as well as a Director in the Office for
National Statistics. His interest in the longevity of families stems from
the belief that families are a fundamental building block in society
and their longevity is not simply a matter of whether you are born rich
or poor.

Acknowledgements
ILC is grateful to Bayes Business School for supporting this research
and for the many useful conversations the author has had with people
interested in family longevity. He is particularly grateful to Professor
Ruth Harvey of Royal Holloway University of London, to Li Webster,
editor, and to Oscar Hedgecoe, former ILC intern, for his help in
compiling the data.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 2

Contents
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................... 4

Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 7

1. Measuring longevity and defining our dynasties........................................... 12

2. The Royal Family....................................................................................................................18

3. The Kennedy family ............................................................................................................24

4. Discussion...................................................................................................................................33

Annex A.............................................................................................................................................. 36

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 3

Executive summary
In February 2022, the UK will celebrate the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee,
marking the 70th anniversary of her accession to the throne and
becoming Head of the Commonwealth. Born in 1926, the Queen has
dutifully served as our monarch and Head of State since 1952. The
length of her reign is unmatched in the modern era, being even longer
than that of Queen Victoria, her great-grandmother. She has reigned
through countless periods of celebration and crisis, and worked with
15 prime ministers.
As we write this report, the Queen is in her 96th year: we estimate
that only 0.15% of the UK population are older (approximately 100,000
people). For around 85% of the UK population, she’s the only Head
of State they have ever known. Around 6 million people alive today
should have memories of the coronation, whether as direct spectators
or having seen it broadcast live on television or in cinemas.
During the period covered by our study, there have been many
changes. In 1952, the UK population was almost entirely white; today
around 15% are Black, Asian, or from other ethnic minorities. During
this period, the country has also transformed from being virtually of
one single faith to having all religions represented in society. But the
Queen is still also Supreme Governor of the Church of England.

A tale of two dynasties

In this research, we compare the longevity of the Queen and her
bloodline with that of another preeminent family of the twentieth
century. The Kennedys are sometimes feted as ‘US royalty’. We
compare the constitutional positions of these dynasties in the UK and
the US, and examine their influences on the development of both
countries for over a century.
We find two powerful dynasties which are effectively polar opposites.
We look at their positions of privilege, the pressures of elected
office versus being born into a hereditary monarchy, the tension
between tradition and celebrity, and the role played by wealth in
their development and success. We ask whether these different
backgrounds are reflected in the lives and careers of their members.
In our comparison of these two dynasties, we centre on a ‘focal
woman’ for each, looking up and down her direct bloodline to her
predecessors and antecedents. For the Royal Family, this is of course

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 4

the Queen, born in 1926 and still heading her family to this day. For the
Kennedys, it’s Rose, who was born in 1890 and died aged 104 in 1995.

What we found
We found that the Royal Family enjoys greater longevity than either
the general public or the Kennedys. Someone born into the Royal
Family could expect to live 26% longer than someone in the general
public based our longevity index. However, we also see that the gap is
closing pointing to improvements in population health and we would
expect this trend to continue.
When we compare the longevity of the Kennedy family we initially
see a similar pattern - unsurprising given their comparative wealth
and privilege. But over the last 75 years we see this trend reversing,
with Kennedys living shorter lives than the general public, suggesting
there are other factors at play. In this period, there were a series of
unrelated premature deaths - the so-called ‘Kennedy curse’. But is
this soley down to bad luck or are there other factors underpinning
the differences between these two dynasties?
We make some further intriguing comparisons, for instance between
the Queen’s role as Supreme Governor of the Church of England
and Rose Kennedy’s devout Catholic beliefs, the Queen’s sense
of public duty versus the Kennedys’ political engagement, and the
two women’s roles as mothers of large families. We investigate
these differences through the lens of the family histories of their
children and grandchildren, and their impact on public life and
society in general. We support these with detailed demographic and
genealogical analyses of both families and a synopsis of their lives
and devotion to public duty.
Starting with the grandparents of the Queen and Rose Kennedy, we
introduce each generation in turn. For the Queen, we close with her
first great-grandchildren; for Rose Kennedy, with her great-great-
grandchildren. We draw attention to the huge inequalities in longevity
when comparing the influential and wealthy with the poor: for
example, in 1880, 25% of the population of England and Wales would
be expected to die before they reached the age of five. This was
related to high rates of slum dwelling, poor sanitation and prevalence
of childhood disease.
At the heart of this study is a comparison of two dynasties originally
established by men but dominated by women who outlived the men

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 5

in their families. Their overlapping longevity has allowed them to live
through and influence an extraordinary period of world history and
change – a feat unlikely to be repeated by future matriarchs.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 6

Introduction
ILC was founded to investigate longevity and the consequences of
living in an ageing world, both for society as a whole and the individuals
within it. We have mostly addressed topics with obvious connections
to this subject, like health and social care, and pensions. These papers
generally study individuals by age group rather than by their individual
interests or occupations. Recently we have branched out into more
tangential topics, such as investigating whether sporting success
relates to increased longevity – and these principles can be applied to
many other subjects.
In that vein, this research examines whether members of the UK Royal
Family enjoy increased longevity compared to the general public,
as well as their impact on public life and society in general. We also
compare their lives and circumstances to those of another notable
family, the Kennedys – who have often been feted as ‘US royalty’. The
aim is to compare their lives. We also look at the differences arising
from their roles: one family within a constitutional monarchy and the
other being political figures in a republic where the president has huge
executive powers.
Members of both families share a commitment to public duty and
service, but they have very different private lives. Other contrasting
qualities include: privilege versus power; the political pressures of
elected office versus those of hereditary, life-long roles; the tension
between tradition and celebrity; and the ability of family members
to carve out a private life away from the public gaze. We investigate
whether members of these families live longer or shorter lives than the
general public, and whether they seem to be at a greater or lower risk
of an early death.
Our key finding is that the Royal Family enjoys greater longevity than
either the general public or the Kennedy family.

Defining longevity, what we include in our dynasties, and our

period of study
We’re interested in the longevity of both families. We aim to show
whether longevity among both is greater or less than for the average
person and if we can point to reasons for those differences.
Because life expectancy has increased so much over the last 100
years, we need to define both longevity and our ‘dynasty’ for the

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 7

purposes of our study. To compare differences in family size and
longevity we need clear definitions of who to include or exclude, along
with the start and end points of our interest. Our approach is to centre
our analysis on the lives, ancestors and descendants of two pivotal
figures in these families.
Our research covers the life and times of Elizabeth II, Queen of the
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Head of the
Commonwealth, and Defender of the Faith. Born in 1926, the Queen
has served as monarch since 1952. Her family name is Windsor; this
was changed in 1917, making her grandfather King George V the first
Windsor monarch, which is where our dynasty starts. The equivalent
pivotal figure in the Kennedy dynasty is matriarch Rose Kennedy, born
in 1890, who died aged 104 in 1995.
Comparing the Windsors with the Kennedys
There are many interesting parallels between the Royal Family and the
Kennedys, not least the affection in which they are both held. Much like
the Queen and her predecessors, the Kennedy name is remembered
around the world on plaques, bridges, squares, streets and buildings,
named after US President John F. Kennedy.
The differences between our dynasties make for some intriguing
contrasts. For example, the ages to which they live versus that of the
general population, privilege versus power, old money versus new, the
protestant roots of the Anglican tradition versus Catholicism, public
duty versus politics, work versus motherhood, and so on. Whereas
the Queen only has ceremonial and constitutional duties, the US
presidency bestows supreme power, such as the ability to launch a
nuclear war.
Circumstances of royalty
As we write this report, the Queen is in her 96th year: we estimate
that only 0.15% of the UK population are older (approximately 100,000
people). For around 86% of the UK population, she’s the only Head
of State they have ever known. Around 6 million people alive today
should have memories of the coronation, whether as direct spectators
or having seen it live on television or in cinemas.
Her reign has seen 15 prime minsters, the first being Winston Churchill,
although there have been 21 during her lifetime. She has lived through
countless crises: political, economic, and armed conflicts. Her service is
unmatched in the modern era, as the longest-living leader in the world.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 8

Her reign has lasted longer than that of Queen Victoria, her great-
grandmother.
Around the world, ships, schools, hospitals, sporting events and
awards, monuments and sculptures all bear her name – even a
mountain range. Postage stamps bear her image. Her presence is
such a common part of normal life that we take it for granted. We
will celebrate her Platinum Jubilee in February 2022, marking the 70th
anniversary of her accession to the throne, with many celebrations
planned for later in the year, including a national holiday.
The UK monarchy is an unelected institution which follows strict
rules of succession. The Succession to the Crown Act (2013) ended the
system by which a younger son could displace an older daughter in
the line of succession, as well as the provisions by which those who
marry Roman Catholics were disqualified from succession.
The family members currently in line of succession are Prince
Charles, aged 73, and his son Prince William, aged 39. The Act means
that Princess Charlotte, William’s six-year-old daughter, will be fourth
in line, rather than her younger brother Louis. These are significant
changes which will steer the monarchy for the next century and more.
Longevity might be associated with royalty: in 2021, the Queen’s
husband Prince Phillip died just 62 days short of his hundredth
birthday, while her mother died aged 101, in 2002. But her
predecessors haven’t been as long-lived. We investigate whether
privilege and devotion to duty are linked to a longer life, and whether
this increased longevity might be key to the survival of the monarchy
as an institution. But nothing is guaranteed; we recall that monarchy
was abolished between 1649 and 1660 following a constitutional row
between the monarchy and Parliament.

Circumstances of elected office

In contrast to the Windsors, the Kennedy clan’s continued prominence
depends on electoral success and access to high positions in public
office. John F. Kennedy rose to global eminence when he faced down
the Soviet Union during the Cuban missile crisis, avoiding nuclear war,
and committed the nation to landing a man on the Moon by the end
of the 1960s.
But it’s arguable that the Kennedys were only enshrined in the hearts
of the public after the assassinations of first John and then Bobby by

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 9

gunmen. John served only part of his first term as US president before
his death in 1963, while Robert died on the presidential campaign trail
in 1968.
While deaths of this nature would be far less likely in the UK due to
our gun controls, the Queen has also been subject to assassination
attempts. One took place in London at Trooping of the Colour 1981,
when a teenager fired six blank shots at her, and another in New
Zealand in the same year.

Comparing wealth
Wealth has an obvious link to longevity. Both dynasties are wealthy,
but the reality of whether this has enhanced their longevity is
complicated. In addition, we can see a clear contrast between ‘old’
and ‘new’ money with these two families.
In 1760, George III reached an agreement with the Government
in which Crown property would be managed on behalf of the
Government, with surplus revenue going to the Treasury. In return, the
King would receive a fixed annual payment: the Civil List. In 2012, this
agreement was superseded by the Sovereign Grant, which is used to
maintain the palaces, pay employees, and support the royal family.
The Queen isn’t taxed on this income but does pay taxes on her
private income (known as the Privy Purse) generated from the Duchy
of Lancaster, as well as on her personal investments.
The monarch generally holds the palaces, royal art collections and
other artefacts in trust rather than owning them personally. The
Queen owns Sandringham House and Balmoral Castle, where she
spends a great deal of time. Assets such as these cannot be disposed
of, exported or used to fund more eccentric activities like space
exploration!
In contrast, the Kennedy family’s wealth derives from the highly
successful but sometimes dubious business activities and political
influence of Rose’s husband, Joseph P. Kennedy. In addition to its
protection from inheritance tax via the creation of trusts, their wealth
continues to grow through new blood and new money introduced
through marriage.

Comparing matriarchs
The Queen was educated by tutors and didn’t attend university.
Rose was convent-educated in the Netherlands, before returning

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 10

to the US where she served as her father’s companion – she didn’t
go to college either. During the war, the Queen joined the Women’s
Auxiliary Territory Service, which brought her into contact with
‘ordinary people’. Although Rose did not have a career herself in the
conventional sense, she was fiercely ambitious, competitive and
helped her children to achieve career success, especially in politics.
Rose’s Catholic faith was a significant part of her life; she brought up
her nine children to be devout Catholics, met the Pope and was even
given the title of ‘Countess’ for services to Catholicism. The Queen’s
ambitions were ultimately constrained by her duties and the protocols
of the Royal family and as Head of the Church of England. She had a
much less ‘hands on’ role in bringing up her children than Rose; they
were sent to educational institutions. Their daily routines couldn’t have
been more different.
The Queen never gives interviews or expresses opinions. She never
comments on public matters or gets involved in any way with politics,
any of which would compromise her impartiality. She intends to rule to
the end and is reputed to have said that only a stroke or Alzheimer’s
disease would change that view. If that did happen, Prince Charles
would become Prince Regent until her death. There is no biography of
the Queen and one won’t be written until after she has died.
Rose Kennedy was very different. She loved being in the headlines
and frequently gave interviews. She supported her children in
whatever way she could, for example helping her sons to campaign.
After the deaths of her husband and four of her children, she
published her memoir, Times to Remember, in 1974. As her official
biographer Barbara Perry wrote in 2013, she loved the spotlight and
was highly skilled on the campaign trail. Currently there‘s no obvious
candidate to take over her dynastic role – nor is there another obvious
presidential candidate.
Weakened by a stroke in 1984, Rose Kennedy spent the last decade
of her life at the family home in Hyannis Port, Massachusetts. She
died due to complications of pneumonia on 22 January 1995. Events
that unfolded after her death included the untimely deaths of five
more family members, aged between 8 and 51. The Queen has faced
similar situations in her early years such as the death of her father and
later the deaths of her sister and mother in 2002. Probably the most
difficult from a public viewpoint was her daughter-in-law Diana’s death
due to the publicity and criticism it raised.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 11

1. Measuring longevity and defining our dynasties
To get us started, we need clear definitions explaining who to include
and how far back in time we should go, and also how to measure
longevity itself and what we mean by ‘family’ and our ‘dynasty’.

1.1: Life expectancy over time – and survivorship

We know that longevity has been increasing for decades across
society; this means that your life expectancy is affected by when
you were born. For example, in 1880 around 25% of the population in
England and Wales would have died before reaching the age of five,
due to poor living conditions (there are no comparable data for the US
at this time).
After 1900, living conditions improved quickly due to slum clearance
and improved sanitation as well as the introduction of immunisation.
The elimination of childhood mortality is considered one of the
greatest achievements of the twentieth century – but note that there
are still stark inequalities in adult life expectancy in the poorest strata
of society to this day.
If someone who was born in 1880 died at 60, they might have been
considered old. But if someone born in 1930 died at 60, it might be
thought an early death. So we need to ensure we’re comparing like
with like. To this end, we use cohort life tables, which are based on the
probability of death by year of birth.
We need to standardise how we define longevity for all the subjects
in our study, by controlling for their year of birth. We can compare the
longevity of deceased subjects with the percentage of deaths in the
equivalent section of the general population – those born in the same
year and who are of the same sex.
Figure 1 shows two individuals: A, born in 1880, and B, born in 1930.
Both die at 60, as indicated by the vertical and horizontal hatched
lines.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 12

Figure
FIGURE1:
1 Comparing the longevity of individuals with the general
population of England and Wales
100
90

80

70
Age at death

60

50

40

30

20
A B
10

0
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year of death

Key: The green line is the 50% percentile or median age of death; the red line is the 25th
percentile
FIGURE 2

For A, dying at 60 would have been considered ‘normal’, since 50%

25
of the population born in 1880 would have died by that age (shown
by the
20
green line, which is the median age of death across the
Queen
population). For B, 60 wouldII have been considered a relatively early
Elizabeth
Family size

age15to die, since onlyborn

25%1926
of the population born in 1930 would have
died by that age (shown by the red line). Any percentile higher than
50 means
10 that longevity is greater than the median, any lower than
50 is less than the median. We give A a ‘longevity score’ of 50, and
5
B a score of 25. We call this the ‘percentile age of death‘, using it to
compare longevity among all the deceased individuals in our dataset.
0
Extending
1840 this1860to other1880 percentiles
1900 (including
1920 1940 10,1960 25, 50,1980
75, 95,2000 99) 2020
Year
means we can easily pick out anyone who lived a comparatively long
or short life by plotting their age of death against their birth year. We
Number of living royals Expected number
can make comparisons for anyone born since 1841 (whenmat. grandfather 1855
records
mat. grandmother 1862 pat. grandfather 1865 pat. grandmother 1867
began) to now. Since the near elimination
father 1895 mother 1900
of childhood mortality
Philip 1921
in
the 1930s, we find that the
Queen Elizabeth 1926 percentiles tend to converge
pat. grandfather 1936 over time,
mat. grandmother 1938
indicating thatmat.life expectancy
grandfather 1944 has been
1st childbecoming
1948 more pat.
equal across1953
grandmother
society. father 1952 youngest child 1964 1st grandchild 1977
sister 2002 mother 2002 1st great-grandchild 2019
We examinePhilip
whether
2021 these improvements apply equally to all the
individuals in our dataset; the extent to which they have kept pace
with the median or average lifespan or exceeded it; and if they
haven’t, why.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 13

Margaret 1930-2002 30
Another important factor is that women generally outlive men –
although this is changing, as men’s longevity gradually catches up with
women. This means that we treat men and women separately when
assigning longevity percentiles, making the results gender-specific.

Survivorship
This view of longevity is based on mortality – completed lives. But
survival is a random process; we need to determine whether the
number surviving at any given point in time is exceptional.
Our study looks at surviving family members as well as those who’ve
died – if we didn’t, we would be excluding many who are in their 70s
or older. To address this, we compare the numbers of living subjects
in any given year with the number we would expect to be alive based
on the life tables for their year of birth. We then sum the probability of
being alive over all birth years and express it as an index. If the index is
greater than 1, more are alive than would be expected. If it’s less than 1,
fewer are alive.
What do we expect to see? The fact that the general population’s
mortality rate was much higher in the nineteenth century means that
we would expect those with more privileged lives to be shielded from
diseases and causes of death that were commonplace in the rest of
society. In 1841, female life expectancy was over seven years higher at
age 8 (50.9 years) than it was at birth (43.8 years). Today life expectancy
at birth is higher than at any other age, thanks to the fall in child and
infant mortality. We would expect the life expectancy at birth for a
member of the Royal Family or any family of wealth born in 1841 to be
much higher – indeed, this is what the data show.
There are no complete data for the US until 1930, but it’s clear that
survivorship is also markedly higher for members of the Kennedy
family at that time. In the absence of better data we use the same life
tables, for the general populace in England and Wales, for comparison
to both the Kennedys and the Windsors.
We also find that the probability of a member of the Kennedy family
being alive was generally greater than one, compared with the general
population. The advantage of a wealthy upbringing has ensured that
the Kennedys continued to outstrip the general population for some
decades. The index peaked in the 1920s and 1930s, before falling back
to a value much closer to one – equality with the rest of the population.
And after 1960 it dipped below one, where it currently remains.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 14

1.2: Defining our dynasties
Studies of historical dynasties often focus on powerful individuals:
usually, but not always men. We take a different approach. Women
live longer than men on average, and the longer they live, generally
the larger the family. We centre our studies on the bloodlines of two
focal women – following their surviving children as they produce their
own offspring. We use this as a point of reference for analysing family
structures with members born before and after our focal women.
We include the focal woman’s partner or husband and her siblings.
We also include her parents and maternal and paternal grandparents.
Only blood descendants count towards the analysis of longevity. We
acknowledge but exclude partners, husbands and wives of the focal
woman’s descendants but they’re included in our data as part of the
historical record, and we may mention them when relevant to our
story. Going forward, we include all the generations born up to and
including 2021.
Figure 2 shows the focal woman, her siblings and partner. The
two generations below are her parents and grandparents, and
the generations above are her children, grandchildren, great-
grandchildren and great-great-grandchildren. Apart from her partner,
all family members are biologically related to our focal woman, either
as parents or grandparents, siblings, children, grandchildren or great-
grandchildren.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 15

Figure 2: Defining ‘the family’ around a focal woman

Great-great- Great-great- Great-great-

grandchild grandchild grandchild
A B C

Great- Great- Great-

grandchild grandchild grandchild
A B C

Grandchild Grandchild Grandchild

A B C

Child Child Child

A B C

Focal
Partner
woman

Sibling A Sibling B

Mother Father

Grandmother Grandfather Grandmother Grandfather

A A B B

This is an example of a ‘kinship’ approach, in which the family is

traced through the female rather than male lineage. The family
members, along with their biological relationship to the focal woman,
are technically referred to as the family pool – but we call this our
dynasty.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 16

Table 1 shows our dataset, based on the schema in Figure 2 and our
selection criteria.

Table 1: Size of families by generation in 2021 (excludes still births)

Queen Elizabeth Rose Kennedy

Relation (b. 1926) (1890 - 1995)
Parents and grandparents 8 8
Siblings 1 5
Children 4 9
Grand children 8 30
Great grandchildren 12 75
Great-great-grandchildren 0 16
Total 33 143

Deceased 8 30
Alive in 2021 25 113

The Royal Family has 33 members and the Kennedy family has 143.
The difference in the sizes of their family pools is not only because the
Kennedys have far more children in each generation, but also because
their dynasty started earlier (the Royal Family doesn’t yet include great-
great-grandchildren of the Queen).

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 17

2. The Royal Family
The royal family can be split into two halves. First, there is the Queen
herself, and her children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. The
other half falls outside our dynastic definition: those descended from
the Queen’s grandfather, George V (1865 – 1936). This includes figures
like the Duke of Gloucester and Prince Michael of Kent.

Our dynasty
Queen Elizabeth II’s parents were the future King George VI (1895 –
1952) and his wife Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon (1900 – 2002). The Queen’s
paternal grandparents were George V (1865 – 1936) and Mary of
Teck (1867 – 1953); her maternal grandparents were Claude Bowes
Lyon (1855 – 1944) and Cecelia Cavendish Bentinck (1862-1938). She
married Philip Mountbatten (1921 – 2021) in 1947; he then received the
titles of Duke of Edinburgh, Earl of Merioneth and Baron Greenwich.
When her father died of lung cancer in 1952, she acceded to the
throne in the same year and was crowned in 1953. She exceeded
Queens Victoria’s reign of 63 years in 2016.
Her mother, Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother, died in 2002 aged
101. Her younger sibling, Princess Margaret, died in 2002 aged 71.
Her husband Prince Philip the Duke of Edinburgh died in 2021, three
months short of his 100th birthday.
She has four children: Charles, Prince of Wales (b. 1948), Princess
Anne (b. 1950), Prince Andrew (b. 1960) and Prince Edward (b. 1964).
The first in line to the throne, Prince Charles, aged 73, looks set to be a
transitional monarch, while his son William could be over 50 before he
becomes king.
Scanning the longevity of her parents and grandparents, including
Edward, George V and George VI, it’s fairly clear that the longest lived
royals were not necessarily descended from Queen Victoria. For
example, the Queen Mother outlived George VI by 50 years.
The Queen’s children have established public personas with honorary
titles and long records of public engagement. For example, Charles
founded the Prince’s Trust, which helps disadvantaged young people.
Princess Anne founded The Princess Royal Trust for Carers. Prince
Philip founded the Duke of Edinburgh Award, which has helped over
5 million children.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 18

The private lives of the Queen’s children have always been subject to
media scrutiny. Prince Charles was ridiculed for championing green
issues and climate causes long before they became fashionable.
Princess Diana, his former wife, and mother of Princes William and
Harry, died in a tragic car accident in 1997; in 2005, Charles married
Camilla Parker Bowles. Princess Anne, who has been twice married,
with two children from her first marriage, survived a kidnap attempt
in 1974. A successful equestrian, she competed in the 1976 Olympics.
Prince Andrew, also divorced, who stepped down from his royal
duties in 2020, also has two children. Prince Edward had a career in
television and theatre production before becoming a full-time royal
family member; he has two children too.
According to our definition, the family includes eight grandchildren:
four boys and four girls. We can also count 12 great-grandchildren as
of December 2021, giving a total of 25 living royals.
Prince William (b. 1982), second in line to the throne, is married to
Kate Middleton; they have received the titles of Duke and Duchess of
Cambridge. They have three children: Princes George and Louis, and
Princess Charlotte. William’s brother Harry spent time in the military
and saw service in Afghanistan, as did Andrew in the Falklands. Harry
married US actor Meghan Markle in 2018 and has since settled in the
United States and has two children. Zara Philips, daughter of Princess
Anne and Mark Phillips, is a successful equestrian like her mother.
Beatrice and Eugenie, daughters of Andrew, are working royals;
Beatrice has one daughter, Sienna.
As the Royal Family has grown in size, there are younger family
members in the line of succession. Princess Anne, third in line of
succession at the time of her birth, drops to 17th in the current ranking.
The Succession to the Crown Act (2013), which ended the precedence
of male heirs over female, applies going forward, but isn’t applied
retroactively to her case. Under the new rules, Princess Charlotte (b.
2015), William’s second child, is now 4th in line, taking precedence over
Prince Louis (b. 2018). These changes guarantee a long line of young
successors available to step up to the plate if necessary.

Public duties
The Queen plays a constitutional role in opening and dissolving
Parliament and approving bills before they become law.
She undertakes various official ceremonial, diplomatic and

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 19

representational duties and bestows a range of civil and military
honours. She also approves Orders and Proclamations through the
Privy Council (which advises the Queen on carrying out her duties),
including exercise of the Royal Prerogative and other functions
assigned to the Sovereign by Acts of Parliament. Royal assent is the
final step required for a parliamentary bill to become law.
The monarch is constitutionally empowered to exercise the Royal
Prerogative against the advice of the Prime Minister or the Cabinet,
but in practice would only do so in emergencies or where existing
precedent doesn’t adequately apply to the circumstances in question.
In practice, it is effectively a vehicle for executive decisions made by
the Government which are then formally issued in the Queen’s name.
The Queen has a special relationship with the Prime Minister, retaining
the right to appoint them, and also meeting with them on a regular
basis.
Theoretically she may choose a new prime minister from a shortlist
provided by the ruling Government, although this isn’t a role she
particularly wants. Instead, these decisions are generally taken
internally by the ruling party (or parties in the case of a hung
parliament). She can refuse permission for dissolution of parliament or
refuse to sign legislation, but no monarch has done this for centuries.
Her role has therefore changed; direct power has given way to
influence and the right to advise, comment or seek information. It can
be argued, however, that her influence has grown in proportion to the
length of her reign.
The Queen is also head of the military, holding numerous military
ranks. She is Supreme Governor of the Church of England,
constituently linking church and state. She is Head of the
Commonwealth of Nations: a voluntary association consisting of 54
sovereign states, most of them former British colonies. Its aim is co-
operation within a framework of common values and goals such as
the promotion of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, free
trade and world peace.
The Queen’s role is very different from that of an elected head of
state. She focuses on the central importance of duty and how she’s
viewed by her subjects. She best described what she stands for in
a speech on her 21st birthday in 1947: “I declare before you all that
my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your
service and the service of our great imperial family to which we all

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 20

belong.” She has stuck faithfully to this promise and refuses to step
down as monarch while able.

2.1 Growth and survivorship

Figure 3 shows how the size of this dynasty (as defined for the
purposes of our research) has changed over time. Centring on the
Queen, we outline the family’s size and the size we would expect it
to be if mortality had conformed to the rates within the equivalent
general population. The first-born according to our definition was
the Queen’s maternal grandfather in 1855. It shows the timing of
all deaths, the timing of the births of the first-born of each new
generation, and their relationship to the Queen.
We can see that the Queen became a mother in 1948 with the birth
of Charles, a grandmother in 1977 with the birth of Peter Phillips, son
of Anne, and a great-grandmother in 2010 with the birth of Savannah,
daughter of Peter Phillips.
Figure 3: Size of the Royal Family over time
25

20
Queen
Elizabeth II
Family size

15 born 1926

10

0
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Number of living royals Expected number mat. grandfather 1855
mat. grandmother 1862 pat. grandfather 1865 pat. grandmother 1867
father 1895 mother 1900 Philip 1921
Queen Elizabeth 1926 pat. grandfather 1936 mat. grandmother 1938
mat. grandfather 1944 1st child 1948 pat. grandmother 1953
father 1952 youngest child 1964 1st grandchild 1977
sister 2002 mother 2002 1st great grandchild 2010
Philip 2021

NB: We centre on the Queen, showing years of births and deaths members of her bloodline.
The hatched line shows what the expected family size would be if survivorship numbers
matched those for the equivalent general population.
(Key: Green = birth; red=death; light blue = birth of Queen)

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 21

0
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

The hatched
Number line shows
of living royalsthat the Royal
ExpectedFamily’s
number average longevity is 1855
mat. grandfather
consistently higher than that of the general population. The dynasty is1867
mat. grandmother 1862 pat. grandfather 1865 pat. grandmother
dominated by1895
father three long-lived members: mother 1900the Queen Mother, Prince
Philip 1921
Queen Elizabeth 1926
Philip, and the Queen herself. pat. grandfather 1936 mat. grandmother 1938
mat. grandfather 1944 1st child 1948 pat. grandmother 1953
We can compare
father 1952 the longevity ofyoungest
deceased members with
child 1964 the
1st grandchild 1977
percentage of deaths
sister 2002 in the equivalent section
mother 2002 (by year and sex) of
1st great-grandchild 2019
the general
Philippopulation.
2021 Figure 4 shows that the percentile longevity
scores of six subjects was higher than the median percentile (50%),
that of four subjects was higher than the 90th percentile.
Figure 4: Ages of death with the relevant percentiles of the general
population that would have died

Margaret 1930-2002 30

Prince Philip 1921-2021 99

Elizabeth Bowes 1900-2002 99

George VI 1895-1952 43

Mary of Teck 1867-1953 91

George V 1865-1936 72

Cecelia 1862-1938 75

Claude 1855 -1944 98

0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentile of the population

The green bars against each name show the percentile age of death
in the equivalent section (by year and sex) of the general population.
Philip and the Queen Mother reached the 99th percentile, while
George VI was in the 43rd and Princess Margaret in the 30th. George
VI died at 57, while the median age of death for a man born in 1895
would have been 61. Princess Margaret died age 71, but the median
age of death for a woman born in 1930 was 82. The average percentile
across all subjects is 76, outliving the median by 26%.
In Figure 5, we test the hypothesis that the Royal Family have outlived
the general population based on the ratio of the number alive in any
given year to the number we would expect to be alive if they followed
the statistics for the general populace.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 22

 Figure 5: Observed versus expected number alive, by year, based on a
FIGURE 4
five-year moving average
2.0
1.8
1.6
Observed/expected

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6 Royal family
0.4 General population
0.2
0.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
NB: A value higher than one indicates that the number alive is higher than one would expect
to find in the general population according to their year of birth.
FIGURE 5
As the index is consistently above 1, we can conclude that members
120
of the Royal Family do live longer than the average, but that the
110 degree of advantage has been declining since the 1910s, as general
100 life expectancy has improved. Another Rosereason
Kennedyfor this is differences in
d. 1995 (age 104)
90 age structure:Rose
for example,
Kennedy if older royals die and younger members
b. 1890
80 are born, this will cause the average family age to fall, bringing it
Family size

70
closer to the general public of similar age.
60
50 The index remains above 1 to this day, indicating that the Royal Family
40 still has an advantage in longevity. One curiosity is that Margaret died
30
a short while before her mother in 2002, suggesting the events may
20
10
have been linked, while Mary of Teck (mother of George VI) died in
0 1953, just a year after his death. Research suggests that the death of a
1860 loved one may
1880 be linked
1900 1920 to one’s
1940 death; the evidence
1960 1980 though,
2000 is2020
only
circumstantial. Year

Actual number of Kennedys mat. grandmother 1904 daughter Patricia 2006

father 1863 daughter Kathleen 1948 1st great great grandchild 2012
mat. grandfather 1900 mother 1964 daughter Jean 2020
son Joseph 1944 1st great grand child 1977 pat. grandfather 1885
son John 1963 daughter Rose Marie 2005 Rose Kennedy born 1890
Rose Kennedy died 1995 granddaughter Kara 2011 youngest child 1932
grandson John Jr. 1999 grandaughter Saoirse 2019 rst grand child 1951
daughter Eunice 2009 pat. grandmother 1879 husband 1969
latest great grandchild 2018 husband 1888 grandson Michael 1997
great great grandson Gideon 2020 first child 1915 son Edward 2009
Expected number father 1950
The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties grandson Christopher 2018
23
mother 1865 son Robert 1968 great granddaughter Maeve 2020
mat. grandmother 1904 grandson David 1984
3. The Kennedy family
Our dynasty
Rose Elizabeth Fitzgerald (1890 – 1995), eldest of six children,
was daughter to second-generation Irish immigrants John Francis
Fitzgerald (1863 – 1950) and Mary Josephine Hannon (1865 – 1964).
John was a Democrat who served as mayor of Boston. In 1914, Rose
married businessman and investor Joseph P. Kennedy Sr., a leading
member of the Democratic Party and the Irish Catholic community. He
served as first chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC) from 1934 to 1935, and later as US Ambassador to the UK
between 1938 and 1940.
In contrast to the Queen, Rose’s life was defined by her life as a
mother and matriarch, rather than a constitutional figure of authority
or a person of elected office. She took prodigious pride in her Roman
Catholic roots and her family, to which she was devoted. In 1951 she
was ennobled by Pope Pius XII, becoming only the sixth American
woman to become a papal countess; she would often sign her name
Countess Rose Kennedy. She was also dubbed a political matriarch by
her biographer Barbara A. Perry in 2013.
Rose’s nine children were Joseph Patrick Jr. (Joe) (1915 – 1944),
John Fitzgerald (Jack or JFK) (1917 – 1963), Rose Marie (alternatively
Rosemary) (1918 – 2005), Kathleen Agnes (Kick) (1920 – 1948), Eunice
Mary (1921 – 2009), Patricia Helen (Pat) (1924 – 2006), Robert Francis
(Bobby) (1925 – 1968), Jean Ann (1928 – 2020), and Edward Moore
(Ted) (1932 – 2009).
Tragedy first struck the family when Joe Jr. died in action during
the Second World War. JFK, elected US President in 1960, was
assassinated in 1963 by Lee Harvey Oswald, and presidential
candidate Bobby by Sirhan Sirhan in 1968. Her fourth son Ted, a
serving Senator, was last of the brothers to die. His political prospects
were ruined after a car accident in 1969 in which his young passenger
Mary Jo Kopechne died – and for which he was deemed negligent.
Her daughters Rose Marie, Eunice and Patricia all lived into their 80s;
the youngest, Jean, lived to see 92. However, Kathleen died aged only
28 in a plane crash. Rose Marie suffered from mental illness. She was
given a prefrontal lobotomy when she was 23 and spent the rest of
her life in an institution. Apart from Kathleen, their much longer lives
are in stark contrast to the shorter lives of Rose’s sons.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 24

Apart from Joe and Rose Marie, all of Rose’s children had large
families, giving her 31 grandchildren: 18 grandsons and 14
granddaughters.
JFK married Jacqueline (Jackie) Lee Bouvier in 1953. After suffering a
stillbirth (Arabella) in 1956, Caroline Bouvier, their only surviving child,
was born in 1957. John Fitzgerald Jr. followed in 1960. Not a politician,
he was probably best known as editor of a magazine called George
which he co-founded in 1995. He died in a plane crash in 1999 along
with his wife and sister in law. Then Patrick was born in 1963, but sadly
only lived two days due to birth complications.
Kathleen (Kick) was clearly fascinated by English nobility. She married
William Cavendish, Marquess of Hartington and future Duke of
Devonshire, who died in action during the Second World War. She
was shunned by the family for this marriage as he wasn’t a Catholic.
She died in a plane crash in 1948, along with her second aristocratic
husband, the 8th Earl Fitzwilliam.
Eunice married Sargent Shriver and had five children with him.
Pat married English-born Hollywood actor Peter Lawford and raised
four children with him until their marriage ended in 1966 – none of
whom went into politics.
Bobby had 11 children with Ethel Skakel: Kathleen (b. 1951), Joseph
Patrick Kennedy II (b. 1952), Robert Jr. (b. 1954), David Anthony (1955
– 1984), Courtney (b. 1956), Michael LeMoyne (1958 – 1997), Mary
Kerry Kennedy (b. 1959), Christopher George Kennedy (b. 1963), Max
(b. 1965), Douglas (b. 1967) and Rory (b. 1968). With the exception of
David and Courtney, all Bobby’s children had several children each.
Courtney married Paul Hill, who was wrongly gaoled for the Guildford
IRA bomb attack in 1974. They had one child, Saoirse Roisin, before
their marriage ended in 2006.
Jean married businessman Stephen Edward Smith. They had two
sons, Stephen Jr. and William, and adopted two daughters, Amanda
and Kym. Stephen died in 1990; Jean survived him by 30 years.
Ted married Joan Bennett and had three children: Kara (1960 – 2011),
Edward (Ted) Jr. (b. 1961) and Patrick Joseph (b. 1967). Kara was a TV
producer who served on the boards of numerous charities; she died
of a heart attack aged 51.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 25

We believe that Rose’s grandchildren have given her 75 great-
grandchildren, the first of which was born 1997, and of whom 44 are
great-granddaughters. We think that her great-great-grandchildren
currently number 17, with the first arriving in 2012. Far less is publicly
known about these generations and some information is quite patchy.
Many of the younger ones are still making their way in life and the
older ones have a mix of careers such as authors, actors, journalists
or models. One with a political pedigree is Rose’s great-grandson and
Bobby’s grandson, Joseph Patrick (Joe) (b. 1980). He served as the US
Representative for Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district between
2013 and 2021.

Public office
Arguably the main link between the two dynasties share is a
commitment to public duty, if not to political office. The most
prominent proponents of this commitment within the Kennedy
dynasty were of course Rose’s most famous sons, but the links with
politics and public duty carried on through the female line as well.
The husband of Rose’s daughter Eunice, Sargent Shriver, was the
1972 Democrat Vice-Presidential nominee; he worked for the Johnson
administration and was prominent in public life for any reasons,
including helping to found the Peace Corps. She herself founded the
Special Olympics for people with physical and intellectual disabilities.
Their youngest daughter, Jean Ann Kennedy, was a diplomat, activist,
humanitarian and author who served as US Ambassador to Ireland
from 1993 to 1998.
The family tradition of political engagement and public office
continued into the next generation.
JFK’s daughter Caroline is an author, attorney, and diplomat who
served as the US ambassador to Japan from 2013 to 2017. While
politically active, she has not achieved elected office, although the
Biden administration nominated her as US ambassador to Australia in
the summer of 2021.
Eunice’s children include: Maria Shriver, who married Arnold
Schwarzenegger, Governor of California; Mark Kennedy Shriver, who
served on the Maryland House of Delegates for eight years to 2003
and is now President of the Save the Children Action Network; and
Robert Shriver, Mayor of Santa Monica, California in 2010.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 26

Kathleen, daughter of Bobby, was Lieutenant Governor of Maryland
for eight years to 2003; today she works with the Biden administration
on retirement and pension issues. Bobby’s son, Joe, was a member
of the US House of Representatives for 12 years to 1999, and now
works in the renewables sector, using the profits to provide energy
savings to low-income families. Another son, Christopher, is also a
politician, having been a candidate in the 2018 Democratic primaries
for Governor of Illinois. Bobby’s daughter, Kerry, is an American
lawyer, author and human rights activist. She’s president of a non-
profit human rights advocacy organization and was married to former
New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, for 15 years – making a political
connection through marriage.
Ted’s eldest son, Ted Jr., is a both a lawyer and a politician who
served on Connecticut’s state senate for four years to 2019, as well
as chairman of the board of directors of the American Association of
People with Disabilities. Ted’s youngest son, Patrick, was the Rhode
Island member of the House of Representatives for many years, as
well as a mental health advocate.

The ‘Kennedy curse’?

The cluster of premature family deaths that permeated Rose’s life,
including four of her children, is often referred to as the ‘Kennedy
curse’. Ordinarily this would have been be enough to destroy the
will of the average family but somehow it kept going, sustained by
achievements of her children especially in politics and public service.
Of her 32 grandchildren, 24 were still alive in 2021 but several died in
tragic circumstances.
The ‘curse’ still afflicts Rose’s family, long after her death. Of Bobby’s
children, David died in 1984, also from an overdose, and Michael
died in a skiing accident in 1997. Maeve Kennedy McKean (1979 –
2020), great-granddaughter of Rose and Bobby’s granddaughter
by Kathleen, was an American public health official, human rights
attorney and academic, who drowned with her son Gideon in a
canoeing accident in 2020. Saoirse, daughter of Bobby’s daughter
Courtney, died from an overdose in 2019. There were also deaths
outside of Rose’s bloodline, such as that of Mary Richardson Kennedy,
who was married to Robert Jr. (son of Bobby); she committed suicide
in 2012.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 27

 1.4

Observed/expecte
1.2

1.0

3.1 Growth and survivorship 0.8

0.6 Royal family

Figure 6 shows
0.4
howGeneral
the size of the Kennedy dynasty (as defined for
population
the purposes
0.2
of our research) has changed over time. Centring on
Rose, we outline the family’s size and the size we would expect it
0.0
to be if mortality had
1900 1910 conformed
1920 1930 1940 1950to 1960
the rates within
1970 1980 1990 the
2000 equivalent
2010 2020
general population. Year

Figure 6: Size of the Kennedy family over time

120
110
100 Rose Kennedy
d. 1995 (age 104)
90
80 Rose Kennedy
b. 1890
Family size

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Actual number of Kennedys Expected number

father 1863 mother 1865
pat. grandmother 1879 pat. grandfather 1885
husband 1888 Rose Kennedy born 1890
mat. grandfather 1900 mat. grandmother 1904
first child 1915 youngest child 1932
son Joseph 1944 daughter Kathleen 1948
father 1950 first grand child 1951
son John 1963 mother 1964
son Robert 1968 husband 1969
1st great-grandchild 1977 grandson David 1984
Rose Kennedy died 1995 grandson Michael 1997
grandson John Jr. 1999 daughter Rose Marie 2005
daughter Patricia 2006 son Edward 2009
daughter Eunice 2009 granddaughter Kara 2011
1st great-great-grandchild 2012 grandson Christopher 2018
latest great-grandchild 2018 grandaughter Saoirse 2019
daughter Jean 2020 great-great-grandson Gideon 2020
great-granddaughter Maeve 2020

NB: We centre on Rose Kennedy, showing years of births and deaths for members of her
bloodline. The solid line shows the size of the family and the hatched line shows what the
expected family size would be if survivorship numbers matched those for the equivalent
general
FIGURE 6population.
Key: Green = birth; red=death; light blue = birth and death of Rose
110
99%
100
The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties
95%
28
90
75%
 90 Rose Kennedy
b. 1890
80

Family size
70
60
50
It40shows the timing of all deaths, the timing of the births of the first-
born
30 of each new generation, and their relationship to Rose. Deaths
20
start
10
with that of Rose’s son Joseph in 1944 – those of Rose’s siblings
and0 the three neonatal deaths are excluded.
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
The size of the family increases sharply Year after 1950; the family pool had
113 living Actual
members in 2021.
number of Kennedys
This compares
mat. grandmother 1904
with 78 living members in
daughter Patricia 2006
the year of Rose’s
father 1863 death at agedaughter
105.Kathleen
This1948 can be compared with
1st great great grandchild 2012 the

Royal Family, which has only 25mother

mat. grandfather 1900
living
1964
members, includingdaughter Jean 2020
the Queen
son Joseph 1944 1st great grand child 1977 pat. grandfather 1885
and excluding partners, although
son John 1963 she’s
daughter still
Rose Marie 2005 only in
Roseher 96born
Kennedy
th
year.
1890
Rose Kennedy died 1995 granddaughter Kara 2011 youngest child 1932
The hatched
grandsonline
John Jr. shows
1999 that until around
grandaughter 1960, longevity
Saoirse 2019 within the
rst grand child 1951

Kennedy dynasty was consistently

daughter Eunice 2009
higher than that of the general
pat. grandmother 1879
husband 1888
husband 1969
latest great grandchild 2018 grandson Michael 1997
population.
great After 1960
great grandson Gideonthere
2020 was a reversal
first child 1915 – the son
line representing
Edward 2009

their actual numbers falls below

Expected number
the hatched line,grandson
father 1950
the Christopher
exact 2018
mother 1865 son Robert 1968 great granddaughter Maeve 2020
opposite mat.
ofgrandmother
what we 1904 observedgrandson
in the Windsor
David 1984 dynasty. This broadly
coincides with the ‘Kennedy curse’ years, when several subjects died
prematurely, starting with Rose’s son Joseph in 1944. Family longevity
tends to be dominated by women, including Rose herself, her mother
Mary Josephine Hannon, and her daughters – but not her sons.
Figure 7 puts the longevity of both the dynasties we’re studying into
wider perspective.
Figure 7: Age at death for members of both dynasties, compared with
FIGURE 6
the general population, by year of birth
110
99%
100
95%
90
75%
80
50%
Age at death

70
25%
60
10%
50
Kennedy deaths
40
30 Royals

20
10
0
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year of birth

NB: Solid lines show the cumulative probability of death for different percentiles of the
population according to year of birth. The hatched area encloses data from blood relatives
of Rose Kennedy that are referred to as victims of the ‘Kennedy curse.’ Rose’s siblings aren’t
included in this data.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 29

The blue squares represent deaths within Rose Kennedy’s bloodline,
while the red triangles represent deaths within the Queen’s bloodline.
The solid coloured lines show survivorship in the general male
population by year of birth, with divisions based on the 10th, 25th, 50th,
75th, 95th and 99th percentiles. The upward slopes reflect general
increases in longevity over time, with the inequality gap between
upper and lower percentiles narrowing.
What stands out is how precarious early life was in nineteenth-century
England and Wales (see Section 1, Figure 1). On average, 25% of each
cohort would be expected to die before their 5th birthday. While there
were significant improvements in public health between 1900 and
1930, with longevity inequalities narrowing as a result, the Royal Family
and the Kennedys were shielded from their effects.
Comparing dynasties, we find that the average percentile for royal
deaths is much higher than that for deaths within the Kennedy family
(76 versus 39). But if we separate the deaths in the Kennedy family
into two groups, we see a different picture. Separating out the deaths
often referred to as being part of the ‘Kennedy curse’ (starting with
Rose’s son Joseph in 1944 and ending with her great-granddaughter
Maeve) the average percentile jumps to 73, just slightly lower than
that of the Royal Family. The average percentile for the ‘Kennedy
curse’ deaths is just 9. It’s also telling that a large number of deaths
were the results of accidents, including three plane crashes, a
drowning and two drug overdoses, as well as two murders. This may
suggest a pattern of not just bad luck but also risky behaviour.
Their impact is also clearly seen in Figure 8.
The green bars against each name show the percentile age of deaths,
compared to the same reference population used for the Royal
Family. Any percentile higher than 50 means that this individual’s
longevity is greater than the median age of death for the general
population, any lower than 50 is less than the population median. We
include all family members within Rose’s bloodline who were born
after 1840 (but not her siblings).

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 30

 Figure 8: Ages at death with the percentiles of the relevant general
population that would have died
Gideon Joseph Kennedy McKean 2012-2020 1
Saoirse Kennedy Hill 1997-2019 1
FIGURE 7
Maeve Kennedy Townsend McKean 1979-2020 2
Kara Anne Kennedy 1960-2011 5
John Fitzgerald Kennedy Jr. 1960-1999 5
eon Joseph Kennedy McKean 2012-2020 1
Michael LeMoyne Kennedy 1958-1997 5
Saoirse Kennedy Hill 1997-2019 1
David Anthony Kennedy 1955-1984 4
Kennedy Townsend McKean 1979-2020 2
Christopher
Kara Anne Kennedy Kennedy Lawford
1960-2011 5 1955-2018 15
John Fitzgerald Kennedy Jr. Edward
1960-1999Moore Kennedy
5 1932-2009 51
Michael LeMoyne Kennedy 1958-1997 5
Jean Kennedy Smith 1928-2020 82
David Anthony Kennedy Robert
1955-1984 4
Francis Kennedy 1925-1968 17
Christopher Kennedy Lawford 1955-2018
Patricia Helen Kennedy Lawford 15
1924-2006 56
Edward Moore Kennedy 1932-2009 51
Eunice Kennedy Shriver 1921-2009 75
Jean Kennedy Smith 1928-2020 82
Kathleen
Robert Francis Kennedy Agnes Cavendish
1925-1968 1920-1948
17 18
Rose Marie Kennedy
ricia Helen Kennedy Lawford 1924-2006 1918-2005 56 72
Eunice Kennedy Shriver John Fitzgerald Kennedy
1921-2009 1917-1963 24 75
Kathleen Agnes Cavendish 1920-1948
Joseph Patrick Kennedy Jr. 18
1915-1944 22
Rose Marie Rose
Kennedy 1918-2005
Elizabeth Fitzgerald Kennedy 1890-1995 72 99
John Fitzgerald Kennedy 1917-1963 24
Joseph Patrick Kennedy Sr. 1888-1969 86
Joseph Patrick Kennedy Jr. 1915-1944 22
e Elizabeth Fitzgerald KennedyMary Josephine Hannon
1890-1995 1865-1964 9999
Joseph Patrick Kennedy Sr.John Francis Fitzgerald
1888-1969 1863-1950 86 97
Mary Josephine Hannon 1865-1964 99
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
John Francis Fitzgerald 1863-1950 97
Percentile of deaths
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percentile of deaths
Figure 9 compares the number of living Kennedys with what we
would expect to find in the general population, based on year of birth.
FIGURE 8 Figure 9: Observed
2 versus expected number alive, by year, based on a
five-year moving
1.8 average

2 1.6
Observed/expected

1.8 1.4

1.6 1.2
Observed/expected

1.4 1

1.2 0.8
Kennedy family
1 0.6
General population
0.8 0.4
Kennedy family
0.2
0.6
General population
0.4 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0.2
Year
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
NB: A value high than one indicates that the number alive is higher than one would expect to
find in the general population according to their year of birth.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 31

This figure includes all members of the Kennedy family, including
Roses’ five siblings. The equivalent data for the Royal Family (Section
2.1, Figure 5) showed that they enjoyed greater than average longevity
over time. In contrast, while the Kennedys also experienced greater
than average longevity up to 1955, this then fell to below average. The
chart shows evidence of recovery up to the early 2000s due to an
expanding family size, but a slight dip between 2010 and 2020 with
another spate of deaths.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 32

4. Discussion
On 6 February 2022 many parts of the world will celebrate the 70th
anniversary of the Queen’s ascent to the throne. She is already the
UK’s longest-ever reigning monarch, surpassed in Europe only by
Louis XIV of France (1638 – 1715), who reigned for 72 years. The Queen
has left her mark on many lives and on all areas of the UK. For many
of her subjects, she’s the only monarch they’ve ever known, one who
has weathered political storms that have raged around her, national
crises and family issues, with both dignity and devotion to duty. She’s
renowned for her Christmas broadcast to the UK and Commonwealth
and writes congratulatory messages to her subjects who are
celebrating milestones such as turning 100 years of age.
Is the monarchy popular? A UK-wide survey showed that around 62%
of respondents supported the monarchy, rising to 84% of those aged
over 65, whilst 73% thinks she does a good or fairly good job. This
compares with a current approval rating for the UK Government of
26%, having slipped from 50% in April 2020.
The Royal Family has grown in size, with a robust line of succession
including younger and older family members. This was not always the
case, especially in the early part of her reign when the future of the
monarchy was less secure.
There are many ways to compare our two families. In our introduction
we drew attention to the differences between a hereditary monarchy
and a political dynasty. We chose the Kennedy family as our
comparator as the two dynasties share similarities but also have major
differences. We know that the Kennedys have been referred to as the
US equivalent of the Royal Family. President Kennedy remains the
most popular post-war president, which has rubbed off on the rest
of the family and consequently has set a very high bar for them to
succeed.
Commitment to duty and public service
Both families share a commitment to duty, whether through their
hereditary roles or through elected positions. What also draws them
tighter is a shared commitment to public service – this is often through
the voluntary sector or organisations for which they act as patrons (or
in the case of the Kennedy dynasty, where they play an executive role).
The Queen was once patron to over 600 organisations, although she
has recently been relinquishing many of these responsibilities to other
family members.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 33

The Queen’s children have more freedom to operate in the public
arena than the Queen as long as it is not in areas that would be in
conflict with Government policy or would affect the Queen’s neutrality.
The cost of constitutional formats
Another contrast is in the costs of the two political systems for their
countries. The longevity of any US political dynasty must be reaffirmed
regularly at the ballot box. But the US presidency doesn’t come
cheap. The last election is reputed to have cost $14 billion, including
elections to Congress. By contrast the monarchy costs an estimated
£350 million a year, whilst the UK general election in 2017 cost about
£140 million (according to the Electoral Commission). Of course the
US is by far the bigger country, but any independent observer must
be struck by the cost of the US system, even questioning whether it
delivers value for money or the best person for the job.

Longevity and survivorship shape dynasties – and vice versa

We’re interested in whether our dynasties’ constitutional positions in
any way shaped these two families’ longevity down the generations.
We found marked differences in longevity. The series of tragedies
that mark the Kennedy dynasty might be linked sequentially or simply
bad luck. JFK and Bobby Kennedy’s assassinations aside, all other
deaths were accidental: plane crashes, drowning, a skiing accident,
overdoses.
It seems unlikely that so many mishaps can be a coincidence. Could it
be caused by the massive pressure of expectation and public scrutiny
that comes with being a Kennedy? Some factors are likely to be
contextual, like the freedom to own and carry guns in the US, but can’t
be proven definitively.
Our central conclusion is that the Royal Family is longer lived than the
general public, which in turn has been longer lived than the Kennedys
over the total period of study.
The much larger size of the Kennedy family is partly explained by the
fact that Rose was born 36 years before the Queen, but her Catholic
faith is also a critical factor, as this often leads to large families. And
there’s is no exact parallel for the ‘Kennedy curse’ in the Royal Family.
Princes Harry and Andrew served in armed conflicts, being exposed
to mortal danger, and Princess Anne was nearly kidnapped with her
driver and bodyguard being wounded, but all survived.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 34

But for both dynasties it’s also clear that the length of life matters.
Neither the Queen nor Rose would have had such commanding
influence if their lives had been shorter. Their lives and those of their
family members contrast greatly with those of the general public.
Our purpose has been to compare two dynasties, originally
established by men but dominated by the women who far outlasted
any males before them. Their longevity has allowed them to live
through and influence an extraordinary period of world history and
change – a feat unlikely to be repeated by future matriarchs.
Does our study also tell us something about what the UK would have
looked like it if it had been a republic rather than a monarchy? The
jury is out, but it’s clear that the Kennedy dynasty’s political status will
need rejuvenating at the ballot box – not something the Queen or the
monarchy needs to worry about.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 35

Annex A
1. Extracting age of death for a given percentile of
survivors
Our life tables, published by the Office for National Statistics, are
based on a single year of age. To compare survivorship based on year
of birth, we require the age, x p , to which a given percentile of the
population, l P , survives. This is given by interpolation as:

Where x is age, l x is the number surviving to x , and l x +1 is the

number surviving to age x + 1 . Rearranging the equation, we can
solve for values of p given x , or x given p .

2. Testing whether number alive in year T exceeds

expectations
Let the probability of survival to age z for someone born in year t ,
gender i , be:

S i (zt , t)
If nt are born in year t then the expected number surviving to age z
is nii S i ( z t , t )
Let the years range from t 0 to year T where in our case T ranges
from 1900 to 2020.
The total number expected to be alive in year T is:

If the total number expected to be alive is At then the survival ratio in

year T is
ET
AT
An index of 1 or greater means that the number alive is equal to or
greater than expected based on general mortality; if it’s less than 1,
survival is less than expected.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 36

The test used to verify whether the index is significantly different from
unity is called the mid-p exact test whose calculation can be found at:
https://www.openepi.com/SMR/SMR.htm. For further information on
this test, see: O.S. Miettinen, American Journal of Epidemiology, 1974,
99:5, pp 325-332.

The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 37

About the ILC
The International Longevity Centre UK (ILC) is the UK’s specialist think
tank on the impact of longevity on society. The ILC was established in
1997, as one of the founder members of the International Longevity
Centre Global Alliance, an international network on longevity.
We have unrivalled expertise in demographic change, ageing and
longevity. We use this expertise to highlight the impact of ageing
on society, working with experts, policy makers and practitioners
to provoke conversations and pioneer solutions for a society where
everyone can thrive, regardless of age.

International
Longevity Centre UK

Vintage House
36-37 Albert Embankment
London SE1 7TL
Tel : +44 (0) 203 242 0530
www.ilcuk.org.uk

Published in December 2021 © ILC-UK 2021

Registered Charity Number: 1080496.
The longevity of the Royal Family: a tale of two dynasties 38