Compare and contrast the population

dynamic of HICs and LICs

By: Megharashi Rimjhim

Date: 19 t h August 2022

What is population dynamics?

The study of population dynamics can be defined as the analysis of the factors that affect the
increase, stability, and decrease of populations over time. (Reference;
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/population-dynamics)

Population dynamics in LICs (Low Income Countries):

Low incomes are often associated with characteristics: severe inequality, poor health care and
education, high unemployment, heavy reliance on agriculture, and rapid population growth.
Countries such as Afghanistan, Nepal, Sudan, Yemen are LICs.

Rapid population growth is one of the major challenges LICs faces. Rapid growth has led to
uncontrolled urbanization, which has produced overcrowding, destitution, crime, pollution, and
political turmoil. Rapid growth has outstripped increases in food production, and population
pressure has led to the overuse of arable land and its destruction.

What causes overpopulation in LICs?

1. The rise in the Birth Rate: Due to the advancement in medicine, the average birth rate
has gone up. Due to various fertility treatments available today, there are effective
solutions to infertility problems, which increase the chances of conception. Even if the
parents are sterile, they can opt for test-tube babies and surrogacy methods to have
children of their own. Previously the chances of death of either mother or baby were a
possibility during delivery. Due to modern medicine, pregnancies are safer, which
minimizes the chances of death. In the case of conception after fertility treatment, the
chances of abortion are also minimized, contributing to an increasing birth rate. Early
marriages also contribute to population growth as getting married at an early age
increases the chances of having more children. And especially so with the uneducated
class where family planning is not adopted. This further contributes to overpopulation.
2. Lack of Education/awareness: Illiteracy is another important factor that contributes to
overpopulation. Masses lacking education fail to understand the need to curb the
population explosion. As per the data by the world bank, women with higher education
tend to have fewer children while women with less education have more children. Also,
adults with higher education tend to get married late, while those without higher
 education tend to get married early. It appears that the educated class can make more
responsible decisions about marriage and childbirth. They consider the correlation
between a greater number of children versus quality of life.

3. Cultural Influences: The concept of birth control is not widely accepted. Adopting birth
control measures is considered taboo in certain cultures. Some cultures foster beliefs
that marrying at a certain age or having a certain number of children is ideal. In some
cultures, there is pressure from the family and society to have children. Social norms
influence decisions about starting and extending one’s family. In cultures where a
woman’s role is a child-bearer, large families become the norm.
4. Lack of Family Planning: Most developing nations have many people who are illiterate,
living below the poverty line. They have little or no knowledge about family planning
which is a major cause of overpopulation. The misconception about contraception (fears
of sterility) or lack of economic affordability are also factors. Even getting their children
married at an early age also increases the chances of producing more kids. People do
not understand the harmful effects of overpopulation, and ignorance prompts them to
avoid family planning measures.
5. Religious propagation: Some religion practices are also causing rapid population growth.
It is believed that some religious preachers encourage their community to have more
children.

(Reference; https://www.mindcontroversy.com/causes-of-population-growth/)

Consequences of rapid population growth are:

1. Investment: Faster population growth makes the choice scarcer between higher
consumption now and the investment needed to bring higher consumption in the future.
Economic development depends upon investment. In LICs the resources available for
investment are limited. Therefore, rapid population growth retards investment needed for
higher future consumption.
2. Overuse of Resources: Rapid population growth tends to overuse the country’s natural
resources. This is particularly the case where the majority of people are dependent on
agriculture for their livelihood. With rapidly rising population, agricultural holdings
become smaller and unremunerative to cultivate. There is no possibility of increasing
farm production using new land (extensive cultivation). Consequently, many households
continue to live in poverty. In fact, rapid population growth leads to the overuse of land,
thereby endangering the welfare of future generations. Even in countries where natural
resources are untapped such as Brazil and other Latin American countries, rapidly
increasing population makes it difficult to invest in roads, public services, drainage and
other agricultural infrastructure needed to tap such resources.
3. Urbanization: With rapidly growing population, it becomes difficult to manage the
adjustments that accompany economic and social change. Urbanization in LICs creates
such problems as housing, power, water, transport, etc. Besides, growing population
threatens permanent environmental damage through urbanization in some rural areas.
4. Per Capita Income: The effect of population growth on per capita income is unfavorable.
The growth of population tends to retard the per capita income in three ways:
(i) It increases the pressure of population on land.
(ii) it leads to rise in costs of consumption goods because of the scarcity of the
cooperant factors to increase their supplies
(iii) it leads to a decline in the accumulation of capital because with increase in
family members, expenses increase. These adverse effects of population
growth on per capita income operate more severely if the percentage of
children in the total population is high, as the case in all LICs. Children
involve economic costs in the form of time and money spent in bringing them
up. But they are also a form of investment if they work during childhood as is
the case with most families, and if they support parents in old age which is
rare in the case of majority of children. As these economic gains from having
many children are uncertain, therefore many children in the population entails
a heavy burden on the economy, because these children simply consume
and do not add to the national product. Another factor is the low expectancy
of life in underdeveloped countries. It means that there are more children to
support and few adults to earn thereby bringing down the per capita income.

5. Standard of Living: Since one of the important determinants of the standard of living is
the per capita income, the factors affecting per capita income in relation to population
growth equally apply to the standard of living. A rapidly increasing population leads to an
increased demand for food products, clothes, houses, etc. But their supplies cannot be
increased in the short run due to the lack of cooperant factors like raw materials, skilled
labor, capital, etc. Consequently, their costs and prices rise which raise the cost of living
of the masses. This brings down further the already low standard of living. Poverty
breeds large number of children which increases poverty further, and the vicious circle of
poverty, more children and low standard of living continues.
6. Agricultural Development in LICSs, people mostly live in rural areas. Agriculture is their
main occupation. So, with population growth the land-man ratio is disturbed. Pressure of
population on land increases because the supply of land is inelastic. It adds to disguised
unemployment and reduces per capita productivity further. As the number of landless
workers increases, their wages fall. Thus low per capita productivity reduces the
propensity to save and invest. As a result, the use of improved techniques and other
improvements on land are not possible. Capital formation in agriculture suffers and the
economy is bogged down to the subsistence level. The problem of feeding the additional
population becomes serious due to acute shortage of food products. These must be
imported which increases the balance of payments difficulties.
7. Employment: A rapidly increasing population plunges the economy into mass
unemployment and under-employment. As population increases, the proportion of
workers to total population rises. But in the absence of complementary resources, it is
not possible to expand jobs. The result is that with the increase in labor force,
unemployment and under-employment increases. A rapidly increasing population
reduces incomes, savings and investment.
8. Social Infrastructure: Rapidly growing population necessitates large investments in
social infrastructure and diverts resources from directly productive assets. Due to the
scarcity of resources, it is not possible to provide educational, health, medical, transport
and housing facilities to the entire population. There is over-crowding everywhere. As a
result, the quality of these services goes down. To provide this social infrastructure
requires huge investments.
9. Labor Force: The labor force in an economy is the ratio of working population to total
population. Assuming 50 years as the average life-expectancy in an under-developed
country, the labor force is in effect the number of people in the age-group of 15-50 years.
During the demographic transitional phase, the birth rate is high, and the death rate is on
the decline. The result is that a larger percentage of the total population is in the lower
age-group of 1-15 years. It means that the addition to the lower age-group is larger than
in the working age-group. A large percentage of children in the labor force is a heavy
burden on the economy. It also implies that the labor force tends to increase with the
increase in population. It will grow even faster, if more women seek paid employment.
10. Capital Formation: Population growth retards capital formation. As population increases,
per capita available income declines. People are required to feed more children with the
same income. It means more expenditure on consumption and a further fall in the
already low savings and consequently in the level of investment.
11. Environment Rapid Population Growth Leads to Environmental Damage: Scarcity of land
due to rapidly increasing population pushes large number of people to ecologically
sensitive areas such as hillsides and tropical forests. It leads to overgrazing and cutting
of forests for cultivation leading to severe environmental damage. Besides, rapid
population growth leads to the migration of large numbers to urban areas with
industrialization. This results in severe air, water and noise pollution in cities and towns.
12. World Economy: Rapid population growth also affects LICSs in relation to the world
economy in several ways. First, rapid population growth tends to increase income
disparities between LICSs and developed countries because the per capita incomes
 decline with growth in numbers in the former. Second, rapid population growth
encourages international migration. But these are limited only to the Middle East
countries where there is a dearth of skilled and unskilled labor. But the developed
countries place restrictions on immigration because labor from poor countries adversely
affects the wages of native workers and also creates social and political tensions. Third,
emigration tends to increase wages of workers substantially at home. Fourth, another
beneficial effect of this is that emigrants remit large sums of money back home. This
increases family incomes and their living standards at home. Such families spend more
on food, clothing and on modern household gadgets. (Reference;
https://www.sociologydiscussion.com/demography/population-growth/12-main-
consequences-of-population-growth/3162)

Population dynamics in HICs(High Income Countries)

What are High Income Countries?

A high-income economy is defined by the World Bank as a nation with a gross national income
per capita of US$12,696 or more in 2020, calculated using the Atlas method.

The following are the characteristics of HICs; high per capita income, low incidence of poverty,
high standard of living, narrow income inequalities, low growth rate of population, low level of
unemployment and infrastructural capabilities are present.

What causes low growth rate of population in HICs?

1. 1.Economic development: Countries who are in the early stages of economic

development tend to have higher rates of population growth. In agriculturally based
societies, children are seen as potential income earners. From an early age, they can
help with household tasks and collecting the harvest. Also, in societies without state
pensions, parents often want more children to act as an insurance for their old age. It is
expected children will look after parents in old age. Because child mortality rates are
often higher, therefore there is a need to have more children to ensure the parents have
sufficient children to look after them in old age.
2. 2.Education: In developed countries, education is usually compulsory until the age of 16.
As education becomes compulsory, children are no longer economic assets – but
economic costs. In the US, it is estimated a child can cost approx $230,000 by the time
they leave college. Therefore, the cost of bringing up children provides an incentive to
reduce family size.
3. 3.Quality of children: Gary Becker produced a paper in 1973 with H.Gregg Lewis which
stated that parents choose the number of children based on a marginal cost and
marginal benefit analysis. In developed countries with high rates of return from
education, parents have an incentive to have a lower number of children and spend
 more on their education – to give their children not just standard education but a
relatively better education than others. To be able to give children the best start in life, it
necessitates smaller families. Becker noted rising real GDP per capita was generally
consistent with smaller families.
4. 4.Welfare payments/State pensions: A generous state pension scheme means couples
don’t need to have children to provide an effective retirement support when they are old.
Family sizes in developing countries are higher because children are viewed as
‘insurance’ to look after them in old age. In modern societies, this is not necessary and
birth rates fall as a result.
5. 5.Availability of family planning: Increased availability of contraception can enable
women to limit family size closer to the desired level. In the developing world, the
availability of contraception is more limited, and this can lead to unplanned pregnancies
and more rapid population growth. In Africa in 2015, it was estimated that only 33% of
women had access to contraception. Increasing rates would play a role in limiting
population growth.
6. 6.Female labour market participation: In developing economies, female education and
social mobility are often lower. In societies where women gain a better education, there
is a greater desire to put work over starting a family. In the developed world, women
have often chosen to get married later and delay having children or not at all because
they prefer to work and concentrate on their career.
7. 7.Death rates: Level of medical provision. Often death rates are reduced before a
slowdown in birth rates, causing a boom in the population size at a certain point in a
country’s economic development. In the nineteenth and early twentieth century, there
was a rapid improvement in medical treatments which helped to deal with many fatal
diseases. Death rates fell and life expectancy increased.

(Reference; https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/469/development/factors-effect-population-
size-and-growth/#:~:text=Often%20economic%20growth%20and%20economic,can%20play
%20an%20important%20role.)
Effects of low population growth rate

When young people move to bigger towns and cities, the average age of the population in the
place they leave behind automatically goes up. A community with a higher proportion of older
inhabitants may be less attractive to businesses, which may additionally have difficulty finding
suitable staff locally. Other effects of population decline include:

1. Decline in basic services and infrastructure: If the GDP of a community declines, there is
less demand for basic services such as hotels, restaurants and shops. The employment
in these sectors then suffers. A falling GDP also implies a falling tax base that would
support basic infrastructure such as police, fire and electricity. The government may be
forced to abandon some of this infrastructure, like bus and railroad lines, and combine
school districts, hospitals and even townships in order to maintain some level of
economies of scale.
2. Rise in dependency ratio: Dependency ratio is the ratio of those not in the labor force
(the dependent part ages 0 to 14 and 65+) and those in the labor force (the productive
part ages 15 to 64). It is used to measure the pressure on the productive population.
Population decline caused by sub-replacement fertility rates means that every
generation will be smaller than the one before it. Combined with longer life spans the
result can be an increase in the dependency ratio which can put increased economic
pressure on the work force. With the exception of Africa, dependency ratios are forecast
to increase everywhere in the world by the end of the 21st century.
3. Crisis in end of life care for the elderly: A falling population caused by sub-replacement
fertility and/or longer life spans means that the growing size of the retired population
relative to the size of the labor force, known as population ageing, may cause a crisis in
end of life care for the elderly because of insufficient caregivers for them.
4. Difficulties in funding entitlement programs: Population decline can impact the funding
for programs for retirees if the ratio of working age population to the retired population
declines. For example, in Japan, there were 5.8 workers for every retiree in 1990 vs 2.3
in 2017 and a projected 1.4 in 2050. Also, according to new research (2019) China's
main state pension fund will run out of money by 2035 as the available workforce shrinks
due to effects of that country's one-child policy. With the exception of Africa, this trend
prevails, to a greater or lesser extent, everywhere else in the world.
5. Decline in military strength: Big countries, with large populations, assuming technology
and other things being equal, tend to have greater military power than small countries
with small populations. In addition to lowering working age population, population decline
will also lower the military age population, and therefore military power.
6. Decline in innovation: A falling population also lowers the rate of innovation, since
change tends to come from younger workers and entrepreneurs.
7. Strain on mental health: Population decline may harm a population's mental health (or
morale) if it causes permanent recession and a concomitant decline in basic services
and infrastructure.
BASIS FOR HICs LICs
COMPARISON
Unemployment Comparatively Lower Generally Higher
and Poverty
Rates Infant mortality rate, death rate and High infant mortality rate,
birth rate is low while the life death rate and birth rate,
expectancy rate is high. along with low life
expectancy rate.
Living Good Moderate
conditions
Generates Industrial sector Service sector
more revenue
from
Standard of Generally Higher Comparatively Lower
living
Distribution of Equal Unequal
Income
Factors of Effectively utilized Ineffectively utilized
Production
Growth High industrial growth. They rely on the
developed countries for
their growth.
(Reference;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Economic_consequences_of_population_decline#:~:text=In%20addition%20to
%20lowering%20working,Strain%20on%20mental%20health.)
(Reference: https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-developed-countries-and-
developing-countries.html)