Indian Poultry And Its Future Prospects

It is believed that the indian Poultry Industry is 5,000 years old, since last 4 decades it began to witness remarkable growth from backyard to poultry industry. The organised sector of poultry industry is contributing nearly 70% of the total output and the rest 30% in the unorganized sector. The broiler industry is well dominated in southern states in our country with nearly 60-70% total output coming from these states. The layer industry once again is represented more in southern states especially, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra producing nearly 70% of the country's egg production. India's 75% of egg produce is consumed by the 25% population living in urban and semi-urban areas. Presently about 800 hatcheries are operating in the country.

Per capita consumption

The National Institute of Nutrition has recommended 180 eggs and 11 kg of meat per capita consumption for our country. At present, Per capita availability of meat is 1.6 kg. Per capita availability of egg is 1.8 kg or 42 eggs. Average consumption of eggs in major cities is 170 eggs Average consumption of eggs in smaller cities is 40 eggs Average consumption of developed rural areas is 20 eggs Average consumption of undeveloped rural areas is only 5 eggs. While 20% of Indian population is vegetarian. In spite of this, with the rise of middle class and increased urbanization people prefer to go for nonvegetarian. About 3 million farmers and 15 million agrarian farmers are employed in the poultry industry that grow poultry ingredients for feed and contribute about Rs 26,000 crore to the national income. India is the fifth largest producer of egg and ninth largest producer of poultry meat. India was positioned 17th in the world poultry production. The Indian poultry production is considered to be the cheapest in the world. Leading broiler integrators in India are as follows:

Venkateswara Group, Pune Suguna Poultry Farms Ltd, Coimbatore Pioneer Poultry Group, Coimbatore Godrej Agrovet Ltd, Mumbai Sky Lark group, North India Jafa com feed

These companies account for nearly 40% of broiler industry integrators and contracts. Pioneer Poultry group introduced the concept of contract farming in the year 1980 and the concept of integration was introduced by Suguna farms in 1990. Poultry farming came to be accepted as a viable activity by mid 60s and the real thrust to development came in 1971 with the establishment of Venkateswara Hatcheries Pvt Ltd. The Central Poultry Breeding Farms laid the foundation for the development of poultry industry during 1959. Other agencies such as ICAR (CARI) contributed much in the R&D sector.

Commercial Poultry

India has emerged as the only country in the developing world a self-reliant, technology driven industry, with capability to produce every essential input for successful poultry farming including indigenous genetic resource and breeding, world class poultry vaccines and medicines, specific pathogen free eggs (SPF), farms and hatchery automation systems, pelleted feed, egg processing, poultry processing, nationwide network of disease diagnostic laboratories and facilities for entrepreneurial development and training in both private and public sectors.

Rural Poultry Production

Rural poultry production constitutes important component of agricultural economy in India, small poultry holder are practically capable of more significant contribution to alleviate malnutrition, poverty and unemployment. A spectacular progress has been made from subsistence to sustainable production system. Indian backyard population increase is only by 16% in the last 30 years from 60 to 70 million. China's 76% of total egg comes from rural backyard production. India requires both mass production as well as production by masses.

Egg Scenario
India produces 3.6% of global egg production, i.e., 61 million tonnes. The annual growth rate of egg is 5 to 8%. India has the lowest cost of egg production in the world at 2.55 US cents per egg.

Value added products

The introduction of new poultry products and perceptible shift in eating habits are moving people to branded food such as chicken yummiez, cold cuts, breaded and coated snacks, marinated snacks, chicken nuggets, canned chicken curry, freeze dried chicken pulao, meat soup, powder omlette and scrambled egg mixtures, sandwich, pizza, burger and dial-a-chicken and fast food joints, Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC), McDonald's, Wimpy, Pizza Hut all these are going to change the palatability of the chicken consumer.

Medical uses
Chicken eggs are used to produce source of molecules to treat snakebite. Duck embryos are used in manufacturing anti-rabies vaccine. Diet eggs or designer eggs are going to boost special eggs for vitamin E substitution, Omega fatty acids and antioxidant requirements. Poultry eggs and meat have got sensorial, curative, nutritive and therapeutic potential. Poultry is labour intensive and has a potential to create 25,000 more jobs on the consumption of one more egg per capita and similarly 25,000 additional jobs on the consumption of 100 gm more chicken meat. By the year 2010 India is expected to produce 260 million layers (77700 million eggs) and 3500 million broilers (5.9 million tonnes). Per capita consumption of meat will be around 3.5 to 4.5 kg and eggs will be around 65 and it is expected to contribute Rs 60,000 crore. No agriculture sector is growing as fast as the Indian poultry, making it the most dynamic rapidly emerging sector of livestock economy. The export of poultry meat at present is worth Rs 150 crore and is expected to reach Rs 1,500 crore by 2010. Indian agriculture contributes 28 per cent to the GDP of which 17% is contributed by poultry. Poultry is the only industry where modern technology co-exists with the traditional poultry keeping because poultry technology is appropriate, adaptable, accessible, available and affordable both for the rich and the poor.

Recent positive developments of poultry industry

NABARD has committed to bring about rural prosperity through poultry.

 Meeting of sub-group of poultry has asked for funds of Rs1095 crore for poultry development during the 11th Plan and Rs 30,000 crore for the entire livestock sector under various schemes of the Government of India. India has resumed egg export. IFC (Washington based International Finance Corporation) picked up stake in Suguna Poultry farms. Suguna Poultry paves the way for North Indian expansion and introduces dial-a-chicken concept to promote value added products. Thousands of broiler farmers will reap the benefit. Venkateswara Hatcheries has decided to use tennis to promote their brand Venky's. Poultry farmers to get maize on concessional rate to use it as feed in poultry. Kerala livestock development board chalked out plan for poultry tourism in Munnar. Poultry litter to fetch carbon credit in Andhra Pradesh with 3.5 mw power plant. Godrej Agrovet Ltd introduced wide range of processed chicken in the brand name of Godrej Real Good Chicken.
The poultry production and consumption in the domestic market is slated to grow. Indian poultry industry has been a major contributor to the food-processing sector in the country. From backyard activity to major commercial operation the poultry sector has undergone a paradigm shift. Indian poultry industry has been growing at annual varying rates of 8-15% and this growth in the past few decades made India fifth largest producer of eggs and ninth largest producer of poultry broiler. At present the industry is estimated at over Rs 30,000 crore and is expected to grow over Rs 60,000 crore by 2010. India produces 1,400 million chickens a year, which is close to 27 million a week, of which 95% is traded alive. According to a market report the poultry production and consumption in the domestic markets is slated to grow by 66% to approximately 2.3 million tonnes by 2010. Poultry sector is one of the fastest growing industries of the Indian economy than any other sector contributing about $230 million to the Gross National Product. But in statistical terms the industry has reported a loss of over Rs 4,000 crore as an aftermath effect of the bird flu crisis. The contribution of the small rural farmers points out the importance of integration of the poultry farming and the allied sector. Suguna Poultry Farm is the pioneer in poultry integration and contract poultry farming in India, with presence in nine states and membership of about 15,000 contract farmers. Suguna has set an example of integration and contract farming before the industry and has proved to be beneficial for the company. Integration could be the way forward for the entire industry towards expansion and success. Presently 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is permitted in the food processing sector. Also FDI in food retailing, covering dairy, poultry, marine, vegetables and fruits might help the entire food processing industry grow. Poultry farming in India has transformed from a mere tool of supplementary income and nutritious food for the family to the major commercial activity generating the required revenue. The growth of the industry with steady production of 1,800 million kg of poultry meat, 40 billion egg per year and employment generation of about 3 million people indicates the future prospects for the industry. Changing food habits, rising income of the middle class Indian, presence of

private players, rising market demand of the Indian poultry produce in the export market are some of the contributing factors to the growth of the industry.

India's Poultry Industry Outlook is Bright

INDIA - The country's poultry industry has been through hard times but stakeholders are looking ahead with optimism. After going through a trying period, the poultry sector is now on a roll, according toThe Hindu Business Line. The price of an egg has stabilised around 2.75 rupees (INR), while broiler producers are witnessing good profits. Broiler producers were, in particular, affected last year due to a variety of reasons, including the Kerala government's decision to slap a higher value-added tax on poultry products import. It hurt even established players in the sector. All that seems to have gone-by now with the producers move, in particular, to cut production in the wake of fall in demand last year paying off. For example, live birds are quoting at INR60 per kilo, higher than the production cost of INR45. Not just that, farmers are getting huge orders for growing birds. The poultry industry is showing promise. The INR400-billion plus industry has transformed itself from a mere backyard agricultural activity to a profitable, dynamic commercial industry. One of the fastest growing segments of Indian agricultural sector, its growth is driven by an increasing urban population, a growing middle-class with increasing per capita and disposable income apart from rising cereal prices and stable poultry prices. Companies such as Venky's India, Srinivasa Hatcheries, SKM Eggs and Hester Biosciences are the ones that could benefit investors. A word of caution, however, is that these companies' fortunes are linked to the poultry prices and industry. According to The Hindu Business Line, India, with a poultry population of 489 million and estimated more than 532 billion eggs production, ranks among the top three countries in egg production in the world. While the production of agricultural crops has been rising at 1.5 to 2.0 per cent a year, the broiler production is growing at the rate of nearly eight to 10 per cent every year and growth in production of poultry/chicken meat increased from mere 0.12 million tonnes in 1981 to 2.2 million tonnes presently. The annual per-capita availability of eggs and chicken meat has also increased from a mere 10 eggs and 146g in 1970s to around 43 eggs and 1.6kg respectively and is set to double by 2015. The changing eating habits and growth of fast-food outlets and quick-service restaurants speak highly in favour of improvement in levels of poultry production over the next many years.

The poultry industry has suffered major losses with problems such as bird flu, spiralling costs of feed materials such as maize and soya because of low production. Going by the Met Dept outlook of good monsoon this year and with the crop cycle improving for these crops coupled with a rationalisation of prices, this industry holds promise although a word of caution that though livestock is an industry where diseases such as avian flu can mar the best laid plans. With the prices of pulses, a cheap source of protein, ruling high, consumers are now turning to poultry for their health needs. The sector will stand to gain as long as this trend continues. Hyderabad-based Srinivasa Hatcheries was in the red last year due to a spurt in rising input costs and avian flu threat, reports The Hindu Business Line. However, this year it has bounced back with a PAT of INR79 million for nine months, as against a loss of INR6.8 million in the corresponding period of previous year. A fully export-orientated unit with its base in Erode, the company manufactures egg powders for the confectionery and fast-food segments. As an EOU, the biggest risk associated with SKM these days is the currency fluctuation. It is currently ruling at INR18.60 posting a 3.3 per cent gain over previous day's close. Although billed as the most prominent player in the egg powder segment across the country, there is no word of dividend. The Ahmedabad-based poultry vaccines manufacturer has shown a good performance over the years. Although its sales dropped in financial year 2008-09 on low demand as poultry units slashed their production owing to sluggish demand, Hester should be able to do well in the coming days on the impending growth in poultry industry, reports The Hindu Business Line.

Government Promotes Coloured Poultry

ORISSA, INDIA - The Government has decided to promote coloured birds, targeting increased egg production as well as employment generation in the poultry sector. The Animal Resources Development (ARD) Department has decided to develop hatcheries, exclusively for the coloured birds, on public private partnership (PPP) mode, reports IBN Live. Of the 48 new hatcheries being established in the districts, 36 would be handed over to entrepreneurs for which tenders would be floated soon. This was decided in the first State-level review meeting of the Animal Husbandry sector presided over by newly appointed Fisheries and ARD Minister, Ramesh Chandra Majhi, on Tuesday (24 May). The Government has completed construction of the hatcheries and

incubators are being installed. The hatcheries would produce chicks of varieties like Giriraj, Banaraj, Chhapro, Kalinga Brown, Kroiler and Rose Island Red. "The coloured bird varieties can not only lay between 150 and 180 eggs a year but also weigh more. So, they would be more acceptable and palatable in terms of meat thus providing a more rewarding employment option for the rural youth," officials said. The Department has set a target to increase egg production from 4.2 million to 10 million eggs a day by 2020. Poultry meat production is also aimed to be enhanced from 70 tonne to 100 tonne annually by the same year. The Minister also emphasised on increasing feed production for the livestock. Setting a target, the Department officials have been directed to provide 21 tonnes of grain to the farmers before 10 June, failing which disciplinary action would be initiated against the officials concerned. The Department has set sights on achieving feed production of 20 million tonnes per annum by 2020, reports IBN Live.

Government Develops Modern Slaughterhouses

INDIA - The government says the meat and poultry sectors need new investment to the tune of 40 to 50 million rupees (INR) and is currently developing in 10 modern slaughterhouses.

An investment of around INR40 to 50 million is required in the meat and poultry processing sector, according to a senior official from the Ministry of Food Processing Industries (MOFPI), reportsEconomic Times. MOFPI Secretary, Ashok Sinha, told reporters in New Delhi: "The meat and poultry processing industry requires an investment of Rs 4,0005,000 crore." Meat products are a price-sensitive commodity and we need to provide good hygienic products for which the consumer would not mind paying a little extra, he said on the sidelines of the Mayor's conference on meat and poultry sector. Despite strong untapped potential, the sector has not been able to achieve the desired growth due to different marketing mechanisms, no value additions and low investment in processing facilities, he pointed out. The sector needs to be modernised to increase the profits but immediate requirement is for the establishment of modern slaughter houses, Mr Sinha added. Rupali Banerjee Singh, the Chief Executive Officer of the National Meat and Poultry

Processing Board (NMPPB) supported Mr Sinha's comments and added that modernisation will not only boost the income levels in this sector but also expand the export base. He said: "India has 3,600 registered slaughterhouses and 25,000 unregistered ones, but there are only five or six modern slaughter houses." Elaborating on the investments in the meat and poultry sector, Mr Sinha said that about INR30 to 40 million would alone be required to develop modern slaughter houses all over the country. Mr Sinha said: "These slaughter houses would not only be used for slaughtering animals but also to process the products and would be able to safely dispose the waste." He said that the government was developing 10 modern slaughterhouses, of which three were almost complete and would start functioning very soon, reports Economic Times. "The ministry will be submitting an elaborate investment plan to modernise the sector in the 12th five year plan proposals," Mr Sinha concluded.

Poor Quality Chicks Threaten Region's Industry

JAMMU & KASHMIR, INDIA - Strong demand for day-old chicks in the region is causing concerns over poor quality birds from other areas, a situation that is threatening the industry.

With the day-old chick imports to the Valley shooting up sharply, many unscrupulous traders here have started importing poor quality chicks to make some quick bucks, sources told Greater Kashmir. Sources said these traders were using dyes to colour the plumage and the fluff of the tender chicks to dupe the buyers. With number of people going for poultry farming increasing manifold in the Valley, experts said the import of dayold chicks from Punjab and Haryana has increased substantially over the years. Experts said with most of the farmers ignorant about the quality of the day-old chicks they purchase, "the traders taking advantage of this situation import low quality chicks and earn huge profits". Interestingly, these chicks, according to experts, can threaten the entire poultry industry in Kashmir. They explained: "The gullible farmers who are made to purchase the low-quality chicks incur huge losses due to poor viability and heavy mortality of these chicks." Experts said the wholesalers and middlemen purchase the chicks from the sub-standard

hatcheries at throwaway prices and transfer them in the boxes of branded hatcheries already in their possession. The Animal Husbandry Department has a checkpoint at Zig in Lower Munda set up in the wake of outbreak of avian flu in some states in India, to monitor the import of chicks into the Valley. But the experts said it was not practically possible to check all the boxes loaded in vehicles coming to the Valley owing to time limitations and urgency in delivery of the chicks to the farmers. Local experts said: "The government should devise some other procedure to check the quality of chicks at the farms itself," adding that the government can involve the Animal Husbandry Department its teams of experts to certify the quality and standard of chicks and keep watch on the import of the chicks by various dealers from Punjab and Haryana and regulate the daily supply to not more than 75,000 chicks. The government should also educate the poultry farmers to make them well aware about the chicks they should use in their farms. "The marketing of chicken and day-old chicks also need to be regulated in an organised method," experts told Greater Kashmir.

Poultry Industry Set to Continue Growth

INDIA - The growth trend in domestic poultry industry is likely to continue this decade, according to a new market report. According to Financial Chronicle, Indian poultry market size is estimated at more than 470 billion rupees (INR), with broiler meat and table eggs contributing more than 95 per cent of the market. The publication cites a new report from ICRA, which says that, globally, India ranks fourth in broiler meat production with annual production of about 2.9 million metric tonnes, and ranks third in table egg production, after the US and China, with annual production of 57 billion eggs. The poultry sector has transformed from a backyard activity into a major commercial activity in last two decades, with the presence of large integrated players who successfully implemented contract poultry farming on a large scale. Production has remained largely limited to southern India and western Maharashtra, though states like Haryana, Punjab, and parts of West Bengal have seen increased adoption of poultry farming as alternative source of income for largely agrarian economy. ICRA reports that the Indian poultry sector has been growing annually at around eight to 10 per cent over the last decade and at over 15 per cent in the last three years. It projects the domestic broiler meat demand to grow around 15 to 18 per cent, and table egg demand to grow at five to seven per cent in the medium to long term.

Chicken Market Now Over-Supplied

INDIA - Chicken prices have plummeted to below 60 rupees (INR) per kilo because of an oversupply in the market. The current prices have put poultry farmers under pressure, given the rising prices of feed, reports Economic Times. Producers say the glut could remain for a few more months. Egg and poultry prices have been contributing to high food inflation for the last six months. The entry of new players into the fray, following a shortage of broiler chicks last year, has raised production. This has impacted chicken prices which are hovering in the range INR50 to INR60 per kilo in the wholesale market. The prices were higher by INR5 last month and were well above INR100 a few months ago. Shabir Ahmed, secretary of Poultry Federation of India, said: "At present, the cost of production is around INR47 per kg. Taking into account the commission of middlemen, any price lower than INR67 to 68 will not be profitable for producers." With an addition of 10 to 15 million layer birds across Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Haryana, where major investment have been made in the poultry industry, chicken prices have crashed in the past few months. Mr Venkateshwaran, director of Kohinoor Hatcheries in Hyderabad, commented: "The production of broiler chicken has gone up by as much as 25 per cent. Normally, the consumption rises 10 per cent annually. But this time, consumption has doubled and still the excess production has not been covered." While the prices are falling, input costs are likely to rise. Already the price of maize, the main ingredient of chicken feed, has shot up by INR200 to INR1,300 per quintal, he said. The glut is likely to remain for the next few months, according to Economic Times. Rajpura-based poultry farm owner, Sandeep Mehta, said: "There is excess supply of broiler chicks available in the country, which has reduced the prices of live chicken to INR45 to INR50 a kilo." He added that demand from New Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jammu & Kashmir have increased in the past few days. Dressed bird prices were in a range from INR80 to INR150 a kilo, depending on the location, said an National Egg Coordination Committee) official.

New Poultry Business Platform at ILDEX India 2011

INDIA - ILDEX India 2011 is introducing a new conference and exhibition concept for India's poultry and aquaculture industry with special focus in Chennai and its vicinity. The show will offer poultry and aquaculture professionals with international business practice, both industries need to rise to the next level. ILDEX India 2011 will take place on 15 to 17 September 2011, in Chennai.

India, the world's second largest developing country, is experiencing rapid growth in its poultry and aquaculture sector. Its poultry sector growth is being driven by rising incomes and a rapidly expanding middle class, together with the emergence of vertically integrated poultry producers that have reduced consumer prices by lowering production and marketing costs. For aquaculture industry, India's aquaculture production has been increasing in the last decade. Although the major part of export of cultured products is shrimps, the contribution of carp, such as rohu, has been increasing over the years. In order for the rising trend to continue, it is crucial for India's poultry and aquaculture industry to upgrade both technical expertise and information. Both industries must rise to the next level in order to overcome the new challenges. ILDEX India 2011 is the best answer of what India's poultry and aquaculture industry need. The event which will take place on 15 to 17 September 2011 at Chennai Trade Centre and Convention Centre, Chennai, India is a combination of technology and information platform for industry. ILDEX India 2011 is a new conference cum exhibition concept that has been design to serve specific needs of poultry and aquaculture professional in Chennai and its vicinity. "We understand that India is a big country. Technological advancement and industrial production for both poultry and aquaculture industry vary from region to region. For the upcoming ILDEX India 2011 our focus will be in Chennai which is one of the fastest growing cities in the world and the capital of Tamil Nadu, which is one of India's main production base for both poultry and aquatic products." said Ms Ladda Mongkolchaivivat, general manager, N.C.C. Exhibition Organizer Co., Ltd., the organizer of ILDEX India 2011. Rajan Sharma, Director, Inter Ads Exhibitions, who are the new Indian Partner for N.C.C. Exhibitions Co. Ltd. (NEO), Thailand, commented that the next edition of ILDEX India will be mix of high-level conference and exhibition and it will provide a strong platform for both Poultry and Aqua sectors. ILDEX India will feature four conference tracks two tracks are dedicated for poultry on breeding and husbandry while another two aim for aquaculture focusing on feed and aquatic health. ILDEX India will be supported by VNU Exhibitions Europe (VNU EE), organisers of the well known VIV Exhibitions in the animal husbandry industry. VNU EE is also organising VIV India 2012 together with NEO and Interads. In addition to conference, the exhibit area will feature international technology on poultry breeding, slaughtering, processing, housing, and equipment; egg production and processing; feed production and management; animal health; fish farming and aquaculture companies and knowledge transfer. ILDEX India 2011 will be a business forum for livestock farms; aquaculture farms; equipment suppliers and distributors; meat slaughtering companies; veterinarians; feed ingredients, additives and animal health companies; and distributors, wholesalers, retailers.

Ms Mongkolchaivivat, added: "ILDEX India 2011 will follow ILDEX main concept of bringing international expertise to serve the local need. We will bring renowned speakers to share their vision and expertise with Indian professionals. At the same time, world top technology leaders will showcase their technology that fit the need of Indian poultry and aquaculture industry."

Strong Demand for Poultry Forecast

INDIA - The country's growing economy is forecast to boost poultry demand. The 47-billion rupee (INR) poultry industry is all set for an uplift as demand for poultry products has been growing steadily fuelled by a confluence of factors such as healthy GDP growth, rapid urbanisation and contract poultry-farming, according to a study by rating agency, Icra. The domestic broiler-market demand is set to grow at 15-18 per cent while table-egg demand will grow at 5-7 per cent, according to Icra, reports Hindu Business Line.

Production rise
The poultry sector has grown at more than 15 per cent in the past three years, according to Icra. The production capacity has gone up with large integrated players taking up contract poultry arming. According to data available with the National Egg Coordination Committee, egg production has risen to 26.7 million a day in 2010-11 from just 9.8 million in 2000-01. South India (led by Andhra Pradesh) produces more than 45 per cent of the country's poultry output while another 20 per cent comes from the Western region (led by Maharashtra). Tamil Nadu leads in poultry consumption in the country, thanks to inclusion of eggs in various mid-day meal programmes.

Soaring feed prices

However, the industry has some challenges, says Icra. Seasonal uncertainties, geopolitical worries and soaring feed prices continue to mar the industry's prospects. Rising prices of maize, a major ingredient in the poultry feed that forms more than 60 per cent of the production cost, is a cause for concern for the industry. Feed prices, which stood at INR806 for 75kg during 2000, are now at a staggering INR1,655.50. The poultry sector consumes 52 per cent of the country's maize production and any monsoonal vagaries tend to hit the profitability of poultry sector, especially broiler farms which are sensitive to feed-price fluctuations.

Exports dip
Exports, too, have taken a hit since 2006 due to continual outbreak of bird flu in some pockets of the country. Egg exports plummeted to 44.6 million eggs in 2010-11 after

peaking at 10.19 billion in 2007-08. Table eggs are already off the Gulf menu and the trade is now looking at Africa and Saarc nations, particularly Sri Lanka. But Hindu Business Line reports industry sources saying with an ever-increasing demand outpacing supply, players are keen on catering on home turf and shifting their focus from wet to frozen market, that is, from live birds to processed/dressed chicken, consumption of which is growing at a slow but steady pace.

2010 positive for global poultry production

Date: 2010-01-04
By Mark Clements With the worst of the recession thought to be over, producers can look forward to a healthier year ahead.

For many in the industry, 2009 does not offer a lot of positives to look back on, with oversupply, falling prices and economic stagnation. 2010, however should be brighter. According to forecasts from the United States Department of Agricultures Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), this year, broiler meat production will grow by 3 percent and broiler and turkey meat exports are forecast to be 2 and 4 percent higher, respectively. Chart 1: World broiler meat production recovers FAS notes that Brazil will continue to be the primary supplier in the international arena, as it focuses on growth to non-traditional markets. For the USA, however, FAS paints a different picture, forecasting that the country will face a decline in its broiler shipments on weak demand from major markets. The USA can, at least, expect a modest increase in its turkey exports.

Production

Global broiler meat production is forecast to increase by 3 percent in 2010 to reach 73.7 million tons. While this increase may be far below that recorded only a few years ago, it is, nevertheless, an improvement on 2009. This growth is expected to be driven by Brazil and China, which will reach new historic production levels, achieving increases in output of 4 and 3 percent, respectively. The drivers within the two countries will be different, however. In the case of Brazil, the rise will be fuelled by a combination of strong export and domestic demand, while in China, rising living standards will continue to stimulate internal demand. Chart 2: Major producers: annual production changes (%) The USA is expected to see total output grow by 2 percent this year. Increases are also predicted for a number of other countries, particularly Argentina, India and Russia.

Exports
The global export market is forecast to grow by 2 percent this year. The combination of plentiful supplies, rising consumption levels and an improving macroeconomic outlook will boost the environment for international trade. Brazil, the USA and the EU account for some 90 percent of global trade in poultry meat. However, FAS predicts varying outlooks for the three producers over the year ahead. Chart 3: US and Brazilian exports compared 2005-2010 Brazils expanding exports are expected to end the year 6 percent higher to reach a record in excess of 3.3 million tons as the country continues its strategy of targeting non-traditional markets. US exports, however, are forecast to be 5 percent lower at a little under 2.9 million tons. Increased production in Russia, to substitute imports, and China, to meet growing home consumption, along with lingering non-tariff barriers to trade, are all expected to have a negative impact on the USAs exports. The EU, like the USA, will be hampered by restrictive Russian import policies and face continued competition from lower cost countries. Import demand is expected from a variety of markets in the Middle East and Asia, as well as from efforts to open new markets.

The new importers

The upturn in the global economy that started to emerge in the third quarter of 2009 is expected to stimulate consumption and, consequently, demand for imports will grow. Although Russia, the EU and Japan will remain the largest markets for broiler meat imports, their share of global trade is forecast to stagnate or erode in 2010 as demand increases from other markets. Chart 4: Broiler meat imports by region 2009-2010 Larger imports are forecast to be led by non-traditional developing markets in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, which are slowly accounting for a greater portion of world trade. Demand in these markets is rising as a result of population growth, higher incomes, and an upward trend in meat consumption. Poultry performs particularly well in these markets as it is a lower cost animal protein compared with beef and lamb, and is not associated with any religious taboos.

India produces more than 59.8 billion eggs per year, with per capita availability of 51 eggs per annum. The poultry meat production is estimated to be 1.85 million tonnes in 2008-09