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Demand

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Demand-pull inflation arises when the total demand for goods and services (i.e.

‘aggregate demand’) increases to exceed the supply of goods and services (i.e.
‘aggregate supply’) that can be sustainably produced. The excess demand puts upward
pressure on prices across a broad range of goods and services and ultimately leads to
an increase in inflation – that is, it ‘pulls’ inflation higher.

Aggregate demand might increase because there is an increase in spending by


consumers, businesses or government, or an increase in net exports. As a result,
demand for goods and services will increase relative to their supply, providing scope for
firms to increase prices (and their margins – which is their mark-up on costs). At the
same time, firms will seek to employ more workers to meet this extra demand. With
increased demand for labour, firms may have to offer higher wages to attract new staff
and retain their existing employees. Firms may also increase the prices of their goods
and services to cover their higher labour costs. [ 2 ]  More jobs and higher wages increase
household incomes and lead to a rise in consumer spending, further increasing
aggregate demand and the scope for firms to increase the prices of their goods and
services. When this happens across a large number of businesses and sectors, this leads
to an increase in inflation.

The opposite will happen when aggregate demand decreases; firms facing lower
demand will either pause hiring or make staff redundant which means that fewer staff
are required. This puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. More workers
searching for jobs means that firms can offer lower wages, putting downward pressure
on household incomes, consumer spending and the prices of their goods and services.
As a result, inflation will decrease.

The supply of goods and services that can be sustainably produced is also known as the
economy's potential output or full capacity. At this level of output, factors of production,
such as labour and capital (which includes the machines and equipment firms use to
produce their goods and services) are being used as intensively as possible without
putting upward pressure on inflation. When aggregate demand exceeds the economy's
potential output, this will put upward pressure on prices. When aggregate demand is
below potential output, this will put downward pressure on prices.

So how can we measure how far the economy is from its potential output (or full
capacity) and what does this mean for inflation? While we can fairly accurately measure
aggregate demand on a quarter to quarter basis using gross domestic product (GDP)
data from the national accounts (see Explainer: Economic Growth), potential output is
not directly observable − that is, we have to infer it from other evidence about the
behaviour of the economy. For instance, just as there is a level of output where inflation
is stable, there is also a level of the unemployment rate that is consistent with stable
inflation. It is known as the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment or NAIRU
for short (see Explainer: The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment
(NAIRU)). When unemployment is below the NAIRU, inflation will increase and when it
is above the NAIRU inflation will decrease.

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