Probabilistic Metaphysics - 2023

Explorations in Probabilistic Metaphysics
Joseph Willrich Lutalo*

jwl@nuchwezi.com
April 14, 2023
Abstract
This paper advances the idea that the mathematical idea of prob-
ability could offer a formal foundation for the exploration of affectant
metaphysics. This foundation is developed using 12 analyses based on an
understanding of logic, mathematics and mystical philosophy.
Keywords: Probability, Philosophy.
1 The 12 Analyses
Analysis 1 (A1: Probability) The probability, P(e) for an event e, is a pos-
itive fractional number [5] P(e) ∈ ℜ+[0,1] with the property

 0 : it is absolutely certain e shall never occur
P(e) = 1 : e is certainly bound to occur always
(0, 1) : it is certain e shall not always occur

Analysis 2 (A2) P(e) = σ associates a number σ to the event e, relative to

the frequency or likelihood of e occurring in a set of observations {e} especially
when |{e}| → ∞
Analysis 3 (A3) If we consider the degree of belief D(e), to be the number

µ that limits the relative frequency of event e, then we could, without loss of
certainty, say that
D(e) = P(e) = µ ∀e ∈ {e}, µ ∈ ℜ+

[0,1]
Analysis 4 (A4: Likelihood Space) {e} is also the set of all possible events
in the likelihood space ⟨e∗ ⟩, which means any event ē other than e, capable
of occurring in the same class or family as e, likewise shares the same basis
properties or characteristics. That is
[ē] = [e] ∀ē, e ∈ ⟨e∗ ⟩

* A Masters student at Makerere University, College of Computing and Information Science
1
Analysis 5 (A5: Effect of Belief on Probability) One of the interesting im-
plications of A3, is that, by altering or increasing the belief that e shall occur,
the likelihood that e occurs likewise increases.
Dt→∞ (e) = n −→ P(e) = n
Analysis 6 (A6: Applications of Belief ) A5 could explain or justify the
methods of mind over matter [1] (in Magick), the placebo effect [3] (in Medicine),
precognition [6] (in Psychology), and belief as a tool [2] (Chaos Magick)
Analysis 7 (A7: Subjectivity of Probability) A3 makes or allows the cer-
tainty of events occurring to be subject to something — essentially, certainty
becomes relative or rather subjective and this, not without justification or rele-
vance.
Analysis 8 (A8: Lucid Dreaming) Consider Lucid Dreaming[4] to be a state
of mind [8] in which the likelihood of e occurring in the awareness space of the
first person observer,Θ1 ; Θ1 (e), entirely depends on Θ1 ’s belief in or desire for
e to occur. Essentially,
Θ1 (e) = D(e)
∴ Θ1 (e) = P(e)
and thus Θ1 biases or determines all or most of ⟨e∗ ⟩
Analysis 9 (A9: The Certain Manifestor) In practice it might not be im-
mediately possible for the consequences of A8 to be fully manifest or exploitable,
however, with careful, calculated or persistent attempts to control or cause the
consequences of A8 to occur, Θ1 or any other actor (or observer with operative
powers) in the same awareness space as Θ1 ; λ(Θ1 ), can start by manipulating
or controlling a limited or constrained event space ⌊⟨e∗ ⟩, and by successfully
archiving A8. That is
λ(Θ1 )(e) ∼ P(e)

Eventually
⌊⟨e∗ ⟩ ∼ ⟨e∗ ⟩
or even
⌊⟨e∗ ⟩ = ⟨e∗ ⟩
such that
λ(Θ1 )(e) = P(e)
and that λ(Θ1 ) or Θ1 is a kind of Omnipotent Actor in the awareness space,
or that they are a Certain Manifestor.
2
Analysis 10 (A10: Relativity to the Certain Manifestor) A Certain Man-
ifestor surely is the most powerful, most exacting thing in any existence frame,
as the occurrence of everything else depends on or is relative to it.
Analysis 11 (A11: Pure Magick) A9 presents a systematic way for one to

attain Certain Manifestation, or rather Pure Magick.
Analysis 12 (A12: Probabilistic Metaphysics) A1 - A11 constitute a for-

mal basis for the branch of Mystical Philosophy we shall call Probabilistic Meta-
physics or Stochastic Alchemy.
2 Concluding Remarks
Considering that much of what we know about the manifested universe is biased
by or tainted by the powers, limits and characteristics of the human mind -
whether in our basal waking states or any other state — altered or not, we
must, as Penrose argues [7], come to a firmer, more certain understanding of
reality, using the best tools at our disposal — philosophy and mathematics.
In this paper, we have attempted to succinctly arrive at a formal foundation
and justification for the belief in and systematic application of probabilistic
thinking in relation to controlling, altering or understanding observed reality.
We for example find that, by focusing on the control or alteration of a small,
constrained part or aspect of one’s reality — we consider subjective reality
mostly, but the arguments could well apply to objective reality as well, it could
become possible for one to extend their influence and control to most, if not all
of reality (see A8). As this isn’t a work on ordinary physics or science, we trust
that these ideas thus presented, could lend themselves wholly or partially, to
those still interested in furthering and applying the ancient wisdom and arcana
still trapped in tomes of philosophy and especially affectant metaphysics.
References
[1] Aleister Crowley and Israel Regardie. Magick without tears. Llewellyn Pub-
lications, 1973.
[2] Colin Duggan. Chaos magick. The Occult World, pages 406–11, 2014.
[3] Dylan Evans. Placebo: Mind over matter in modern medicine. Oxford
University Press, USA, 2004.
[4] Stephen LaBerge and Howard Rheingold. Exploring the world of lucid dream-
ing. Ballantine Books New York, 1990.
[5] Joseph Willrich Lutalo. A General Theory of Number Cardinality. figshare,
05 2020.
3
[6] Julia A Mossbridge and Dean Radin. Precognition as a form of prospection:
A review of the evidence. Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research,
and Practice, 5(1):78, 2018.
[7] Roger Penrose. The road to reality. Random house, 2006.
[8] Timothy Williamson. Is knowing a state of mind? Mind, 104(415):533–565,

1995.

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What are the 12 analyses proposed in the paper?

How does the paper relate probability to belief and subjective reality?

Explorations in Probabilistic Metaphysics

Joseph Willrich Lutalo*

Keywords: Probability, Philosophy.

Analysis 2 (A2) P(e) = σ associates a number σ to the event e, relative to

Analysis 3 (A3) If we consider the degree of belief D(e), to be the number

D(e) = P(e) = µ ∀e ∈ {e}, µ ∈ ℜ+

[ē] = [e] ∀ē, e ∈ ⟨e∗ ⟩

λ(Θ1 )(e) ∼ P(e)

Analysis 11 (A11: Pure Magick) A9 presents a systematic way for one to

Analysis 12 (A12: Probabilistic Metaphysics) A1 - A11 constitute a for-

[8] Timothy Williamson. Is knowing a state of mind? Mind, 104(415):533–565,

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