2022

Advanced Statistics

PROJECT REPORT
VARUN SAINI

DSBA | 13/11/2022
Contents

Criteria Points

1.1 What is the probability that a randomly chosen player would suffer an injury? 2

1.2 What is the probability that a player is a forward or a winger? 2

1.3 What is the probability that a randomly chosen player plays in a striker position and has a foot injury? 2

1.4 What is the probability that a randomly chosen injured player is a striker? 2

1.5 What is the probability that a randomly chosen injured player is either a forward or an attacking midfielder? 2

2.1 What are the probabilities of a fire, a mechanical failure, and a human error respectively? 2

2.2 What is the probability of a radiation leak? 2

2.3 Suppose there has been a radiation leak in the reactor for which the definite cause is not known. What is the probability that it has been
caused by: • A Fire. • A Mechanical Failure. • A Human Error. 2

3.1 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength less than 3.17 kg per sq cm? 2

3.2 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength at least 3.6 kg per sq cm.? 2

3.3 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength between 5 and 5.5 kg per sq cm.? 2

3.4 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength NOT between 3 and 7.5 kg per sq cm.? 2

4.1 What is the probability that a randomly chosen student gets a grade below 85 on this exam? 2

4.2 What is the probability that a randomly selected student scores between 65 and 87? 2

4.3 What should be the passing cut-off so that 75% of the students clear the exam? 2

5.1 Earlier experience of Zingaro with this particular client is favorable as the stone surface was found to be of adequate hardness. However,
Zingaro has reason to believe now that the unpolished stones may not be suitable for printing. Do you think Zingaro is justified in thinking so? 3

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Criteria Points

5.2 Is the mean hardness of the polished and unpolished stones the same? 3

6. Aquarius health club, one of the largest and most popular cross-fit gyms in the country has been advertising a rigorous program for body
conditioning. The program is considered successful if the candidate is able to do more than 5 push-ups, as compared to when he/she enrolled
in the program. Using the sample data provided can you conclude whether the program is successful? (Consider the level of Significance as 6
5%) Note that this is a problem of the paired-t-test. Since the claim is that the training will make a difference of more than 5, the null and
alternative hypotheses must be formed accordingly.

7.1 Test whether there is any difference among the dentists on the implant hardness. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Note that
both types of alloys cannot be considered together. You must state the null and alternative hypotheses separately for the two types of 2
alloys.?

7.2 Before the hypotheses may be tested, state the required assumptions. Are the assumptions fulfilled? Comment separately on both alloy
types.? 0

7.3 Irrespective of your conclusion in 7.2, we will continue with the testing procedure. What do you conclude regarding whether implant
hardness depends on dentists? Clearly state your conclusion. If the null hypothesis is rejected, is it possible to identify which pairs of dentists 2
differ?

7.4 Now test whether there is any difference among the methods on the hardness of dental implant, separately for the two types of alloys.
What are your conclusions? If the null hypothesis is rejected, is it possible to identify which pairs of methods differ? 2

7.5 Now test whether there is any difference among the temperature levels on the hardness of dental implant, separately for the two types
of alloys. What are your conclusions? If the null hypothesis is rejected, is it possible to identify which levels of temperatures differ? 2

7.6 Consider the interaction effect of dentist and method and comment on the interaction plot, separately for the two types of alloys? 2

7.7 Now consider the effect of both factors, dentist, and method, separately on each alloy. What do you conclude? Is it possible to identify
which dentists are different, which methods are different, and which interaction levels are different? 2

Quality of Business Report (Please refer to the Evaluation Guidelines for Business report checklist. Marks in this criteria are at the
moderator's discretion) 6

Points 60

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Problem 1

A physiotherapist with a male football team is interested in studying the relationship between foot injuries
and the positions at which the players play from the data collected

Striker Forward Attacking Midfielder Winger Total

Players Injured 45 56 24 20 145

Players Not Injured 32 38 11 9 90

Total 77 94 35 29 235

1.1 What is the probability that a randomly chosen player would suffer an injury?

𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
 P(E) =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

𝟏𝟒𝟓
P(Players Injured) = = 0.6170
𝟐𝟑𝟓

1.2 What is the probability that a player is a forward or a winger?

 P(forward U Winger) = P(Forward) + P(Winger) - P(Forward n Winger)

𝟗𝟒 𝟐𝟗 𝟏𝟐𝟑
P(forward U Winger) = + = = 0.5234
𝟐𝟑𝟓 𝟐𝟑𝟓 𝟐𝟑𝟓

1.3 What is the probability that a randomly chosen player plays in a striker position and has a foot injury?
 P(Stricker and Has foot injury)
𝟒𝟓
P(Stricker n Foot injury) = = 0.1914
𝟐𝟑𝟓

1.4 What is the probability that a randomly chosen injured player is a striker?
 Total injured player = 145
Total Stricker who were injured = 45
𝟒𝟓
P(chosen injured player is a striker) = = 0.3103
𝟏𝟒𝟓

1.5 What is the probability that a randomly chosen injured player is either a forward or an attacking
midfielder?
 Total injured player = 145
Total forward or attacking midfielder who were injured = 56+24 = 80
𝟖𝟎
P(injured player is either a forward or an attacking midfielder) = = 0.5517
𝟏𝟒𝟓

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Problem 2
An independent research organization is trying to estimate the probability that an accident at a nuclear
power plant will result in radiation leakage. The types of accidents possible at the plant are, fire hazards,
mechanical failure, or human error. The research organization also knows that two or more types of
accidents cannot occur simultaneously.
According to the studies carried out by the organization, the probability of a radiation leak in case of a fire is
20%, the probability of a radiation leak in case of a mechanical 50%, and the probability of a radiation leak
in case of a human error is 10%. The studies also showed the following;
 The probability of a radiation leak occurring simultaneously with a fire is 0.1%.
 The probability of a radiation leak occurring simultaneously with a mechanical failure is 0.15%.
 The probability of a radiation leak occurring simultaneously with a human error is 0.12%.
On the basis of the information available, answer the questions below:

Lets define all the events,

F = Fire
M = Mechanical Fire
R = Radiation Leak
N = No Accident
H = Human Error

The following probabilities are given,

P(R|F) + 20% = 0.2

P(R|M) = 50% = 0.5
P(R|H) = 10% = 0.1

P(R∩F) = 0.1% = 0.001

P(R∩M) = 0.15% 0.0015
P(R∩H) = 0.12% = 0.0012

2.1 What are the probabilities of a fire, a mechanical failure, and a human error respectively?

 The probabilities of a fire, a mechanical failure, and a human error respectively are,

𝐏(𝐑∩𝐅) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏
P(F) = = = 0.005
𝐏(𝐑|𝐅) 𝟎.𝟐

𝐏(𝐑∩𝐌) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟓
P(M) = = = 0.003
𝐏(𝐑|𝐌) 𝟎.𝟓

𝐏(𝐑∩𝐇) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟐
P(H) = = = 0.012
𝐏(𝐑|𝐇) 𝟎.𝟏

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2.2 What is the probability of a radiation leak?
 Since, the types of accidents possible at the plant are, fire hazards, mechanical failure, or human error.
P(N) = 1 – (0.005 + 0.003 + 0.012) = 0.98
P(R|N) = 0
P(R∩N) = P(R|N)P(N) = 0

Using total probability theorem,

 P(R) = P(R∩F) + P(R∩M) + P(R∩H) + P(R∩N)

P(R) = 0.001 + 0.0015 + 0.0012 + 0
P(R) = 0.0037

2.3 Suppose there has been a radiation leak in the reactor for which the definite cause is not known. What
is the probability that it has been caused by:
 A Fire.

𝐏(𝐑∩𝐅) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏
P(F|R) = = = 0.2702
𝐏(𝐑) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟕

 A Mechanical Failure.

𝐏(𝐑∩𝐌) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟓
P(M|R) = = = 0.4054
𝐏(𝐑) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟕

 A Human Error.

𝐏(𝐑∩𝐇) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟐
P(H|R) = = = 0.3243
𝐏(𝐑) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟕

Problem 3:

The breaking strength of gunny bags used for packaging cement is normally distributed with a mean of 5 kg
per sq. centimeter and a standard deviation of 1.5 kg per sq. centimeter. The quality team of the cement
company wants to know the following about the packaging material to better understand wastage or
pilferage within the supply chain; Answer the questions below based on the given information; (Provide an
appropriate visual representation of your answers, without which marks will be deducted)
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3.1 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength less than 3.17 kg per sq cm?
Population mean (u) = 5
Standard deviation (σ)= 1.50
Value of score (x) = 3.17

σz=x−uσ

p(x<3.17)
𝟑.𝟏𝟕 𝟓
=p(z< )
𝟏.𝟓𝟎
=p(z<−1.22)
=0.1112
So, the proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking
strength less than 3.17 kg per sq cm is 11.12%

3.2 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength at least 3.6 kg per sq cm.?
The proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking
strength at least 3.6 kg per sq cm. is 82.46%

3.3 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength between 5 and 5.5 kg per sq cm.?
The proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking streng
th between 5 and 5.5 kg per sq cm. is 13.05%

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3.4 What proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking strength NOT between 3 and 7.5 kg per sq cm.?
The proportion of the gunny bags have a breaking
strength NOT between 3 and 7.5 kg per sq cm. is 13.90%

Problem 4:
Grades of the final examination in a training course are found to be normally distributed, with a mean of 77
and a standard deviation of 8.5. Based on the given information answer the questions below.
Let X be a random variable which denotes the grades of the final test in a training course. We have
been given that X is normally distributed with a mean of 77 and a standard deviation of 8.5.
Hence we have
X∼N(μ = 77, σ = 8.5)
4.1 What is the probability that a randomly chosen student gets a grade below 85 on this exam?
 We need the probability that a student gets a grade below 85. This is given as
P(X < 85)
Standardizing, we have
𝟖𝟓 𝟕𝟕
=P(Z < ) =P(Z < 0.9411765)
𝟖.𝟓

Using z-table values, we have =0.8266

Hence the required probability is given as 82.66%
4.2 What is the probability that a randomly selected student scores between 65 and 87?
 We need the probability that the score is between 65 and 87. This is given as
P(65 ≤ X ≤ 87) = P(X ≤ 87)− P(X < 65)
Standardizing, we have
𝟖𝟕 𝟕𝟕 𝟔𝟓 𝟕𝟕
=P(Z ≤ ) − P(Z < )
𝟖.𝟓 𝟖.𝟓

=P(Z ≤ 1.176471)−PZ(<−1.411765)

Using z-table values, we have =0.88029656−0.07900963 =0.8012869

Hence the required probability is given as 80.12%
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4.3 What should be the passing cut-off so that 75% of the students clear the exam?
 The passing cut-off so that 75% of the students clear is,
Z=75%=0.75
75% of Z-score is 0.68
We all know that ,
𝐱 𝛍
Z=
𝛔
𝐱 𝟕𝟕
0.68 =
𝟖.𝟓
(0.68)(8.5)=x-77
5.78+77=x
x=82.78
The passing cut-off so that 75% of the students clear is 82.78
The passing cut-off so that 75% of the students clear the exam should be 82.78

Problem 5:

Zingaro stone printing is a company that specializes in printing images or patterns on polished or unpolished
stones. However, for the optimum level of printing of the image the stone surface has to have a Brinell's
hardness index of at least 150. Recently, Zingaro has received a batch of polished and unpolished stones
from its clients. Use the data provided to answer the following (assuming a 5% significance level);
5.1 Earlier experience of Zingaro with this particular client is favorable as the stone surface was found to be
of adequate hardness. However, Zingaro has reason to believe now that the unpolished stones may not be
suitable for printing. Do you think Zingaro is justified in thinking so?

Hypothesis:
Ho : µ ≥ 150

Null hypothesis: Unpolished stone is suitable for printing

Ha : µ < 150

Alternative Hypothesis: Unpolished stone is not suitable for printing

 Test statistics:
𝒙 µ
𝒁𝒙 =
𝛔 / √𝒏
𝒙= mean of a random sample
µ = value stated in H0
n = sample size
σ = population standard deviation
α : Preset level of significance

𝟏𝟑𝟒.𝟏𝟏𝟎𝟓 𝟏𝟓𝟎
t= 𝟑𝟑.𝟎𝟒𝟏𝟖𝟕𝟓
√𝟕𝟓
t= −15.88953.815339
t = −4.16463
so, test statistics = -4.16463

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degree of freedom (df):
df= n - 1 = 75 - 1 = 74

α = 0.05
Crtical value = 1.6657 (from t-table)
since, absolute t statistics is greater than critical value

so, Null hypothesis should be rejected and alternative hypothesis should be accepted.

Zingaro is justified in thinking that unpolished stones may not be suitable for printing.

5.2 Is the mean hardness of the polished and unpolished stones the same?
 As per the given data,

Mean for Unpolished is 134.110527

Mean for Treated and Polished is 147.78117

It is explicitly evident that mean of both differs.

Problem 6:

Aquarius health club, one of the largest and most popular cross-fit gyms in the country has been advertising
a rigorous program for body conditioning. The program is considered successful if the candidate is able to
do more than 5 push-ups, as compared to when he/she enrolled in the program. Using the sample data
provided can you conclude whether the program is successful? (Consider the level of Significance as 5%)
Note that this is a problem of the paired-t-test. Since the claim is that the training will make a difference of
more than 5, the null and alternative hypotheses must be formed accordingly.

Variable 1 Variable 2
Mean 26.94 32.49
Variance 77.55191919 77.08070707
Observations 100 100
Pearson Correlation 0.946652136
Hypothesized Mean Difference 5
df 99
-
t Stat 36.73038541
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.00
t Critical one-tail 1.660391156
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.00
t Critical two-tail 1.984216952
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  With the help of given data, we get the p value,
It is found that,
alpha is greater than p value, it implies that Null Hypothesis is rejected.

There is no enough evidence to support the claim that the training will make a difference of more than 5.

Problem 7:

Dental implant data: The hardness of metal implant in dental cavities depends on multiple factors, such as
the method of implant, the temperature at which the metal is treated, the alloy used as well as on the
dentists who may favour one method above another and may work better in his/her favorite method. The
response is the variable of interest.
1. Test whether there is any difference among the dentists on the implant hardness. State the null and
alternative hypotheses. Note that both types of alloys cannot be considered together. You must
state the null and alternative hypotheses separately for the two types of alloys.?

 In type Alloy 1 case

Checking the impact of Dentists on implant hardness by p-value, it is found that-
alpha(0.05)<p-value(0.116567)
alpha is less than p-value.
Hence, WE FAIL TO REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS and can infer that mean of all Dentists doing implant is same
and there is no difference among dentists on the implant hardness, if checking response with Dentist alone.

Let’s, find out impact of Dentists with other factors.

alpha(0.05) < p-value of dentist(0.052449). Hence WE FAIL TO REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS

alpha(0.05) > p-value of method (0.002271). Hence WE REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS
alpha()0.05 < p-value of Temp(0.328842).Hence WE FAIL TO REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS

In type Alloy 2 case

Checking the impact of Dentists on implant hardness by p-value, it is found that-
alpha(0.05)<p-value(0.718031)
alpha is less than p-value, Hence WE FAIL TO REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS and can infer that mean of all Dentists
doing implant is same and there is no difference among dentists on the implant hardness, if checking
response with Dentist alone.

Let’s, find out impact of Dentists with other factors.

alpha(0.05) < p-value of dentist(0.390625). Hence WE FAIL TO REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS

alpha(0.05) > p-value of method (0.000003). Hence WE REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS
alpha()0.05 < p-value of Temp(0.15547). Hence WE FAIL TO REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS

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 2. Before the hypotheses may be tested, state the required assumptions. Are the assumptions fulfilled?
Comment separately on both alloy types.?
3. Irrespective of your conclusion in 2, we will continue with the testing procedure. What do you
conclude regarding whether implant hardness depends on dentists? Clearly state your conclusion. If
the null hypothesis is rejected, is it possible to identify which pairs of dentists differ?
 No, implant hardness is not depend on dentists. It depends on methods as we found by testing in
7.1

4. Now test whether there is any difference among the methods on the hardness of dental implant,
separately for the two types of alloys. What are your conclusions? If the null hypothesis is rejected,
is it possible to identify which pairs of methods differ?

 From the given data, we have checked

alpha(0.05) > p-value (0.004163)

We can conclude that Null Hypothesis is rejected and this implies that different methods impact distinctly
on Implant hardness.

Alloy 1 Alloy 2

From above bar plot, it is seen that Method 1 and From above line plot and bar plot, it is seen that all
Method 2 are slightly different but Method 3 is entirely methods are distinctly impacting the implant hardness.
different.

5. Now test whether there is any difference among the temperature levels on the hardness of dental
implant, separately for the two types of alloys. What are your conclusions? If the null hypothesis is
rejected, is it possible to identify which levels of temperatures differ?

 Lets, check with the given data

Null and Alternate Hypotheses as follows-
Null Hypothesis: H0= Mean of all Temperature doing implants is same
Alternate Hypothesis: H0= Mean of all Temperature doing implants is not same
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 ALLOY 1
alpha(0.05) < p-value (0.413618)
We can conclude that we fail to reject Null Hypothesis and this implies that Different temperatures at
which metal is treated not impacts distinctly on Implant hardness.

ALLOY 2
alpha(0.05) < p-value (0.067246)
We can conclude that we fail to reject Null Hypothesis and this implies that Different temperatures at
which metal is treated not impacts distinctly on Implant hardness

6. Consider the interaction effect of dentist and method and comment on the interaction plot,
separately for the two types of alloys?

Alloy 1 Alloy 2

alpha(0.05) > p-value of interaction(0.00673) alpha(0.05) < p-value of interaction(0.093234)

It means that there is a significant effect of It means that there is no significant effect of
interaction of Dentist and Methods on implant interaction of Dentist and Methods on implant
hardness. hardness.

7. Now consider the effect of both factors, dentist, and method, separately on each alloy. What do you
conclude? Is it possible to identify which dentists are different, which methods are different, and
which interaction levels are different?
 In the above attached images, we can see that Method 1 and Method 2 are in most use. However,
the variance of method 3 is showing different.
If we analyze the data, we see that for alloy 1 dentist 3 is an interaction point and for alloy 2 it is
also close to the interaction.

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THANK YOU

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