MATH 322 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL

METHODS

LECTURE SLIDES
CHAPTER 2

PROBABILITY

2
  Sample Space
 Events
 Counting Sample Points
 Probability of an Event
 Additive Rules
 Conditional Probability,
PROBABILITY Independence, and the
Product Rule
 Bayes’ Rule
 Potential Misconceptions
and Hazards;
Relationship to Material
in Other Chapter
Exercises
DEFINITION 2.1

DEFINITION 2.2
Sample Point Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a sample
point of the sample space.
EXAMPLE 2.1
a) Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. The sample space S of possible outcomes may be written as
S= 𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇 .
b) Consider the experiment of flipping a die. Then the elements of the sample space S is listed as

a) S= 1,2,3,4,5,6 .
c) Now consider the experiment of tossing a die and then a coin once. The resultant sample space can be obtained
using TREE DIAGRAM.

Therefore the sample sample S is

S= 1𝐻𝐻, 1𝑇𝑇, 2𝐻𝐻, 2𝑇𝑇, 3𝐻𝐻, 3𝑇𝑇, 4𝐻𝐻, 4𝑇𝑇, 5𝐻𝐻, 5𝑇𝑇, 6𝐻𝐻, 6𝑇𝑇 .
 For the experiment of flipping two coins, the sample space is {HH, HT, TH,T T)}. This sample space has four
elements.

 For the experiment of flipping three coins,

the sample space is

S= {HHH, HHT,HTH,THH,HTT,THT,TTH,TTT}. This
sample space has eight elements.
a) For the experiment of flipping n coins, where n is a positive whole number, the sample space consists of
2n elements. There are a total of C (n, k) ways to obtain k heads and n - k tails for each number k from 0
to n.

b) For the experiment of rolling two six-sided dice, the sample space consists of the set of the 36 possible
pairings of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6

c) For the experiment of rolling three six-sided dice, the sample space consists of the set of the 216
possible triples of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

b) For the experiment of rolling n six-sided dice, where n is a positive whole number, the sample space
consists of 6n elements.
EXAMPLE 2.2
An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on
the first flip, then a die is tossed once. To list the elements of the sample space providing the most information,
we construct the tree diagram of Figure 2.1. The various paths along the branches of the tree give the distinct
sample points. Starting with the top left branch and moving to the right along the first path, we get the sample
point HH, indicating the possibility that heads occurs on two successive flips of the coin. Likewise, the sample
point T3 indicates the possibility that the coin will show a tail followed by a 3 on the toss of the die. By
proceeding along all paths, we see that the sample space is

S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}.

Definition 2.3.
Event An event is a subset of a sample space.

For example 𝐴𝐴 = 4𝐻𝐻, 6𝑇𝑇 is an event defined on S. One can define 212 events on S.
Empty set ∅, is an impossible event and S is a sure event. Any subset of S is represented by capital letters such as A,
B, C…
Definition 2.4.

 The Complement of an Event The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all elements of
S that are not in A. The complement of A is denoted by the symbol 𝐴𝐴𝐴 or 𝐴𝐴𝑐𝑐 .

 The Intersection of Events The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 is the event
containing all elements that are common to A and B

 Mutually Exclusive Events Two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint if 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 = ∅, that is if A
and B have no common elements.

 The Union of Events The union of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A∪B is the event containing
all elements that belong to A or B or both
IMPORTANT NOTES.

The following results may easily be verified by means of Venn diagrams.

1. 𝑨𝑨 ∩ ∅ = ∅
2. 𝑨𝑨 ∪ ∅ = 𝑨𝑨
3. 𝑨𝑨 ∩ 𝑨𝑨′ = ∅
4. 𝑨𝑨 ∪ 𝑨𝑨′ = 𝑺𝑺
5. 𝑺𝑺′ = ∅
6. ∅′ = 𝑺𝑺
7. 𝑨𝑨′ ′ = 𝑨𝑨
8. 𝑨𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑩 ′ = 𝑨𝑨𝑨 ∪ 𝑩𝑩𝑩 1st De Morgan Rule
9. 𝑨𝑨 ∪ 𝑩𝑩 ′ = 𝑨𝑨𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑩𝑩 2nd De Morgan Rule
EXAMPLE 2.3

If 𝑆𝑆 = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 𝐴𝐴 = 0,2,4,6,8 , 𝐵𝐵 = 1,3,5,7,9 , 𝐶𝐶 = 2,3,4,5 and 𝐷𝐷 = 1,6,7 , list the elements
of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(a) 𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵 = 𝑆𝑆
(b) 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 = ∅ (𝐴𝐴 and 𝐵𝐵 are mutually exclusive events)
(c) 𝐶𝐶𝐶 = 0,1,6,7,8,9
(d 𝐶𝐶𝐶 ∩ 𝐷𝐷 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 = 0,1,6,7,8,9 ∩ 1,6,7 ∩ 1,3,5,7,9 = 1,6,7 ∩ 1,3,5,7,9 = 1,7

(e) 𝑆𝑆 ∩ 𝐶𝐶 ′ = 𝐶𝐶𝐶 = 0,1,6,7,8,9

(f) 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐶𝐶 ∩ 𝐷𝐷𝐷 = 2,4 ∩ 0,2,3,4,5,8,9

= 2,4
= 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐶𝐶
 COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS

Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be performed in 𝑛𝑛1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be
performed in 𝑛𝑛2 ways, then the two operations can be performed together in 𝑛𝑛1 𝑛𝑛2 ways.

Example 2.4. How many breakfasts consisting of a drink and a sandwich are possible if we can select from 3 drinks
and 4 kinds of sandwiches?

Solution : 𝑛𝑛1 = 3 and 𝑛𝑛2 = 4, therefore there are 𝑛𝑛1 𝑥𝑥𝑛𝑛2 = 3𝑥𝑥𝑥 = 12 different ways to choose a breakfast.

Example 2.5 A certain shoe comes in 5 different styles with each style available in 4 distinct colors. If the store
wishes to display pairs of these shoes showing all of its various styles and colors, how many different pairs would
the store have on display?

Solution : 5 × 4 = 20 different pairs are available.

THE GENERALIZED MULTIPLICATION RULE COVERING K OPERATIONS IS STATED IN THE FOLLOWING.

Example 2.6. In how many ways can a true-false test consisting of 9 questions be answered?

Solution : There are 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 29 different answers for this test.

Example 2.7. A simple survey consists of three multiple choice questions. The first question has 3 possible answers,
the second has 4 possible answers and the third has 3 possible answers. What is the total number of different ways in
which this survey could be completed?

Solution : There are 3 × 4 × 3 = 36 different ways for completing the survey.

Example 2.8. How many even three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 1,2,3,4, and 5 if
(a) each digit can be used only once?
(b) each digit can be repeated?

Solution : (a) Since the number must be even we have only 2 choices for the units position. For each of these
there are 4 choices for hundreds position and 3 choices for tens positions. Therefore we can form a total of 2 × 4 × 3 =
24 even three-digit numbers.

(b) Similarly for the units position there are 2 choices, since the numbers can be repeated we have 5 choices for the
hundreds and 5 choices for the tens positions. Hence, totally there are 2 × 5 × 5 = 50 even three-digit numbers.
Permutation .
A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.

Theorem 2.1.
a) The number of permutations of 𝑛𝑛 distinct objects is 𝑛𝑛!.
b) The number of permutations of 𝑛𝑛 distinct objects taken 𝑟𝑟 at a time is
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛!
𝑛𝑛𝑃𝑃𝑟𝑟 = =
𝑟𝑟 𝑛𝑛−𝑟𝑟 !

Example 2.9 . In how many ways can a Society schedule 3 speakers for 3 different meetings if they are available on any
of 5 possible dates?

Solution : The total number of possible schedules is

5!
5 𝑃𝑃3 = = 5.4.3 = 60.
5−3 !
Theorem 2.2 The number of permutations of 𝑛𝑛 distinct objects arranged in a circle is 𝑛𝑛 − 1 !.

Theorem 2.3. The number of distinct permutations of 𝑛𝑛 things of which 𝑛𝑛1 are of one kind, 𝑛𝑛2 of a second kind,…,
𝑛𝑛𝑘𝑘 of a 𝑘𝑘 𝑡𝑡𝑡 kind is
𝑛𝑛!
𝑛𝑛1 !𝑛𝑛2 !...𝑛𝑛𝑘𝑘 !
Example 6. In how many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree
lights with 9 sockets?
ı
Solution : The total number of distinct arrangements is
9!
= 1260.
3!4!2!

Example 7. Suppose that 10 employees are to be divided among three jobs with 3 employees going to job I, 4 to job
II, and 3 to job III. In how many ways can the job assignment be made?

10!
Solution. =4200
3!4!3!

Example 8. How many different ways can we rearrange the letters of MISSISSIPPI?

Solution. We have 11 letters in total, of which 4 are ‘I’, 4 are ‘S’ and ‘2’ are ‘P’. In this situation, the total number of
11!
different rearrangements is
4!4!2!
.
Example 9. In how many ways can 7 graduate students be assigned to 1 triple and 2 double hotel rooms during a
conference?
Solution : The total number of possible partitions would be
In many problems, we are interested in the number of ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to order. These
selections are called combinations. A combination is actually a partition with two cells, the one cell containing the r
objects selected and the other cell containing the (n−r) objects that are left.

Theorem 2.4. The number of combinations of 𝑛𝑛distinct objects taken 𝑟𝑟 at a time is

𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛!
𝑛𝑛𝐶𝐶𝑟𝑟 = =
𝑟𝑟 (𝑛𝑛 − 𝑟𝑟)! 𝑟𝑟!

Example 2.8. From 4 mathematicians and 6 computer scientists, find the number of committees that can be formed
consisting of 2 mathematicians and 4 computer scientists.

4 6 4! 6! 4.3.2!6.5.4!
Solution. . = = = 3.6.5 = 90
2 4 2!2! 2!4! 2!2.2.4!
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Definition 2.5. Suppose that an experiment has associated with it a sample space S. A probability P is a numerically
valued function that assigns a number 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 to every event 𝐴𝐴 so that the following axioms hold:
(1) 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) ≥ 0
(2) 𝑃𝑃(𝑆𝑆) = 1
(3) If 𝐴𝐴1 , 𝐴𝐴2 , . . . , is a sequence of mutually exclusive events (i.e. 𝐴𝐴𝑖𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝐴𝑗𝑗 = ∅ for any 𝑖𝑖 ≠ 𝑗𝑗), then
𝑃𝑃 ⋃∞ ∞
𝑖𝑖=1 𝐴𝐴𝑖𝑖 = ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴𝑖𝑖 )
Example 2.9. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head occurs?

Solurtion: The sample space for this experiment is 𝑆𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 . If the coin is balanced, each of these
outcomes would be equally likely to occur. Therefore we assign a probability w to each sample point. Then 4w=1 or
w=1/4.If A represents the event of at least one head occurring, then
1 1 1 3
𝐴𝐴 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 and 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = + + = .
4 4 4 4
Example 2.10. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number. If E is the
event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die,
a) find P(E).
b) let A be the event that an even number turns up and let B be the event that a number divisible by 3 occurs. Find P(A
∪ B) and P(A ∩ B).
Solution : a) The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. We assign a probability of w to each odd number and a
probability of 2w to each even number. Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, we have 9w = 1 or w = 1/9.
Hence, probabilities of 1/9 and 2/9 are assigned to each odd and even number, respectively. Therefore,

b) For the events A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {3, 6}, we have A ∪ B = {2, 3, 4, 6} and A ∩ B = {6}.
By assigning a probability of 1/9 to each odd number and 2/9 to each even number,
we have
Theorem 2.5. If an experiment can result in any one of 𝑁𝑁 different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly 𝑛𝑛 of these
outcomes correspond to event 𝐴𝐴, then the probability of event 𝐴𝐴 is

𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) =
𝑁𝑁
Example 2.11. A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10 electrical, and 8 civil engineering
students. If a person is randomly selected by the instructor to answer a question, find the probability that the student
chosen is
(a) An industrial engineering major and
(b) a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.

Solution : Denote by I, M, E, and C the students majoring in industrial, mechanical, electrical, and civil engineering,
respectively. The total number of students in the class is 53, all of whom are equally likely to be selected.
(a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in industrial engineering, the probability of event I, selecting an industrial
engineering major at random, is
25
𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼) =
53
(b) Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical engineering majors, it follows
that
18
𝑃𝑃(𝐶𝐶 ∪ 𝐸𝐸) =
53
ADDITIVE RULES
Theorem 2.7
Corollary 2.1

Corollary 2.2

Corollary 2.3
Theorem 2.8

Note:
1. 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴\𝐵𝐵 = 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵𝑐𝑐 = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) − 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
2. 𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵\𝐴𝐴 = 𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝐴𝑐𝑐 = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) − 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
3. 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴𝑐𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝐵𝑐𝑐 = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵)𝑐𝑐
4. 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴𝑐𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝐵𝑐𝑐 = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)𝑐𝑐 .
Theorem 2.9
Example 2.13 What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair dice is tossed?

Solution : Let A be the event that 7 occurs and B the event that 11 comes up. Now, a total of 7 occurs for 6 of the 36
sample points, and a total of 11 occurs for only 2 of the sample points. Since all sample points are equally likely, we
have P(A) = 1/6 and P(B) = 1/18. The events A and B are mutually exclusive, since a total of 7 and
11 cannot both occur on the same toss. Therefore,

This result could also have been obtained by counting the total number of points for the event A ∪ B, namely 8, and
writing
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY, INDEPENDENCE, AND THE PRODUCT RULE

Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is called a conditional
probability and is denoted by P(B|A). The symbol P(B|A) is usually read “the probability that B occurs given that A
occurs” or simply “the probability of B, given A.”

Definition 2.2
Example 2.13 The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83;the probability that it
arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D ∩A) = 0.78. Find the
probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.

Solution.
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time, given that it departed on time, is
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐷𝐷) 0.78
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐷𝐷) = =
𝑃𝑃(𝐷𝐷) 0.83

(b) The probability that a plane departed on time, given that it has arrived on time, is
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐷𝐷) 0.78
𝑃𝑃(𝐷𝐷 |𝐴𝐴) = =
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) 0.82
Independent Events

Definition 2.11

This is equivalent to stating that

𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵).
THE PRODUCT RULE, OR THE MULTIPLICATIVE RULE

Theorem 2.10

Example 2.14 One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and second bag contains 3 white and 5 black balls.
One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the probability that a ball now
drawn from the second bag is black?
Solution. Let 𝐵𝐵1 , 𝐵𝐵2 and 𝑊𝑊1 represent, respectively, the drawing of a black ball from bag1, a black ball from bag 2
and a white ball from bag 1.

𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵1 ∩ 𝐵𝐵2 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑊𝑊1 ∩ 𝐵𝐵2 = 𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵1 ∩ 𝐵𝐵2 + 𝑃𝑃 𝑊𝑊1 ∩ 𝐵𝐵2

= 𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵1 𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵2 �𝐵𝐵1 + 𝑃𝑃 𝑊𝑊1 𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵2 �𝑊𝑊1
3 6 4 5 38
= . + . =
7 9 7 9 63
Theorem 2.11:

Two events A and B are independent if and only if

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵).
Therefore, to obtain the probability that two independent events will both occur, we simply find the product of
their individual probabilities.

Theorem 2.12:
Example 2.15. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find
the probability that the event 𝐴𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴𝐴3 occurs, where 𝐴𝐴1 is the event that the first card is a red ace, 𝐴𝐴2 is the event
that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and 𝐴𝐴3 is the event that the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.

Solution. First we define the events as

𝐴𝐴1 : the first card is a red ace
𝐴𝐴2 : the second card is a 10 or jack
𝐴𝐴3 : the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7

Then,
2 8 12 8
𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴𝐴3 = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴1 )𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴2 �𝐴𝐴1 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴3 �𝐴𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴𝐴2 = . . = .
52 51 50 5525
Example 2.16. A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as atail. If the coin is tossed 3 times, what is
the probability of getting 2 tails and 1 head?

Solution.
The sample space for the experiment consists of the 8 elements,
𝑆𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 .

Let A be the event of getting 2 tails and 1 head in the 3 tosses of an unfair coin. Then
𝐴𝐴 = 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 .
Assigning probabilities of 𝑤𝑤 and 2𝑤𝑤 for getting a tail and a head, respectively, we have 3𝑤𝑤 = 1 or 𝑤𝑤 =
1 2 1
. Hence 𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻) = and 𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇) = . Since the outcomes on each of the 3 tosses are independent, it follows that
3 3 3

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇)𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇)𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻)𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇)𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇)𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻)𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇)

1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2
= . . + . . + . . = .
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 9
BAYES’ RULE
The following theorem, sometimes is called the Theorem of Total Probability or the Rule of Elimination.

Theorem 1. If the events 𝐵𝐵1 , 𝐵𝐵2 , . . . . , 𝐵𝐵𝑘𝑘 constitute a partition of the sample space 𝑆𝑆such that 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵𝑖𝑖 ) ≠ 0 for 𝑖𝑖 =
1,2, . . . 𝑘𝑘, then for any event 𝐴𝐴of 𝑆𝑆,
𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = � 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵𝑖𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝐴) = � 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵𝑖𝑖 )𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴�𝐵𝐵𝑖𝑖 ).

𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖=1
Example 2.16: In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of
the products. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is randomly selected. What is the probability that
it is defective?
Solution : Consider the following events:
A: the product is defective,
𝐵𝐵𝟏𝟏: the product is made by machine B1,
𝐵𝐵𝟐𝟐: the product is made by machine B2,
𝐵𝐵𝟑𝟑: the product is made by machine B3.
Applying the rule of elimination, we can write

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵1)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵1) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵2)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵2) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵3)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵3).

Referring to the tree diagram of Figure , we find that the three
branches give the probabilities

𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵1)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵1) = (0.3)(0.02) = 0.006,

𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵2)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵2) = (0.45)(0.03) = 0.0135,

𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵3 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 𝐵𝐵3 = 0.25 0.02 = 0.005,
and hence
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = 0.006 + 0.0135 + 0.005 = 0.0245.
Instead of asking for P(A) in Example 2.16, by the rule of elimination, suppose that we now consider the problem of
finding the conditional probability P(Bi|A). In other words, suppose that a product was randomly selected and it is
defective. What is the probability that this product was made by machine Bi? Questions of this type can be answered
by using the following theorem, called Bayes’ rule:

Theorem 2.14
Example 2.42: With reference to Example 2.41, if a product was chosen randomly and found to be defective, what is
the probability that it was made by machine B3?

Solution : Using Bayes’ rule to write

and then substituting the probabilities calculated in Example 2.16, we have

In view of the fact that a defective product was selected, this result suggests that it probably was not made by
machine B3.
Example:
Example:
Example: Covid-19 tests are common nowadays, but some results of tests are not true. Let’s assume; a diagnostic test
has 99% accuracy and 60% of all people have Covid-19. If a patient tests positive, what is the probability that they
actually have the disease?
P(positive|covid19) = 0.99
P(covid19) = 0.6
P(positive) = 0.6*0.99+0.4*0.01=0.598

The total units which have positive results= 59.4 + 0.4 = 59.8

59.4 units (true positive) is 59.8 units means 99.3% = 0.993 probability