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Module 6 Common Continuous Probability Distribution

This document provides an outline and examples for understanding continuous probability distributions, including the continuous uniform, normal, and exponential distributions. It begins by covering the continuous uniform distribution, its probability density function, cumulative distribution function, and how to calculate mean and variance. Several examples are then provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities for uniformly distributed random variables. Next, it describes the characteristics of the normal distribution and how to transform a normally distributed random variable to the standard normal distribution. More examples demonstrate calculating areas under the normal curve to find probabilities. The document concludes with additional examples applying the normal distribution to find values that satisfy given probabilities or percentage of areas.

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Kejeindrran
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© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
43 views

Module 6 Common Continuous Probability Distribution

This document provides an outline and examples for understanding continuous probability distributions, including the continuous uniform, normal, and exponential distributions. It begins by covering the continuous uniform distribution, its probability density function, cumulative distribution function, and how to calculate mean and variance. Several examples are then provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities for uniformly distributed random variables. Next, it describes the characteristics of the normal distribution and how to transform a normally distributed random variable to the standard normal distribution. More examples demonstrate calculating areas under the normal curve to find probabilities. The document concludes with additional examples applying the normal distribution to find values that satisfy given probabilities or percentage of areas.

Uploaded by

Kejeindrran
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 45

C S

T I
T I S )
TA 14 N
S 30 S IO
G
N C C U T
O BU
R I E U I
E E 4 & I N
T R
N 00 T S
GI O
N I
N 3 6 C D
E NG L E N ITY
(E O D U MO IL
M M BAB
O
C RO
P

1
OUTLINE
In this module, only these type of distributions will be covered
in the lecture:

§ Continuous Uniform Distribution


§ Continuous Normal Distribution
§ Continuous Exponential Distribution
§ Applications in Engineering

https://towardsdatascience.com/understanding-boxplots-
5e2df7bcbd51

2
CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
(RECTANGULAR DISTRIBUTION)
§ The simplest of all continuous distributions in statistics is Continuous
Uniform Distribution.
§ It is characterized by a density function that is “flat” in a closed
interval, say [a,b]

The density function of the continuous


uniform random variable 𝑋 on the interval
[A,B] is CDF :
ì 1 ⎧
0, x<a
ï b - a , a £ x £ b, ⎪
f ( x; a, b) = í ⎪ x−a
ï0, elsewhere F(X ) = ⎨ , a≤ x≤b
î ⎪ b−a
⎪ 1, x≥b
The mean and variance are: ⎩
a+b (b − a)2
E( X ) = µ = , 2
Var( X ) = σ =
2 12 3
CONT…

Figure 1 The density function for a continuous uniform


random variable on the interval [a,b]

4
EXAMPLE 6.1
Suppose that a large conference room for a certain company
can be reserved for no more than 4 hours. However, the use
of the conference room is such that both long and short
conferences occur quite often. In fact, it can be assumed that
length X of a conference has a uniform distribution on the
interval [0, 4].

(a) What is the probability density function?

(b) What is the probability that any given conference lasts at


least 3 hours?
(c) What is the mean and variance?

5
SOLUTION
a) The appropriate density function for the uniformly
distributed random variable X in this situation is
⎧ 1
⎪ , 0≤ x≤4
f (x) = ⎨ 4

⎩ 0, otherwise

a) the probability that any given conference lasts at least 3


hours
4
1 1
P[ X ≥ 3] = ∫ dx =
3 4 4
6
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
§ The most important continuous probability distribution in
the entire field of statistics is the normal distribution.
§ Its graph, called the normal curve, is the bell-shaped curve,
which describes approximately many phenomena that occur
in nature, industry, and research.
§ Can be used to approximate discrete probability
distributions
§ Basis for classical statistical inference
§ Often referred to as the Gaussian distribution

7
CHARACTERISTICS OF NORMAL DIST.
§ Bell-shaped and symmetrical; single peak with only one
mode
§ Mean is at center
§ Mean = median = mode
§ Tails expand infinitely and never touch the horizontal axis
§ Described by two parameters: mean and standard deviation
§ Total area under the curve is 1

Figure 2 The normal curve


8
9
STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

§ The distribution of a normal random variable with mean 0


and variance 1 is called a standard normal distribution

X −µ
§ So, if X ~ N (µ ,σ 2 ) then, Z= is N(0,1)
σ

§ The empirical rule:


§ Around 68% of scores are within 1 standard deviation of the mean
§ Around 95% of scores are within 2 standard deviations of the mean
§ Around 99.7% of scores are within 3 standard deviations of the mean.

10
Figure 3 Normal curves with Figure 4 Normal curves with
µ1 < µ2 and s1 = s2 µ1 = µ2 and s1 < s2

Programming practice:
Using Scilab, plot graphs in
Figure 3, 4 and 5 with different
values of means and variances

Figure 5 Normal curves with


µ1 < µ2 and s1 < µ2
11
SCILAB CODE EXAMPLE
x = [-3:.1:3];
mu=0; %mean
sigma=1; %standard deviation
y = exp(-0.5 * ((x - mu)./sigma).^2) ./ (sqrt(2*%pi) .* sigma)
figure;
plot(x,y)

The normal distribution of


random variable 𝑋 lies between
[-3,3] with mean 0 and standard
deviation 1

Can you write a Scilab code


to plot cdf function?

12
PROPERTIES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

13
CONT…
To evaluate the mean,

14
CONT…
To evaluate variance,

15
AREAS UNDER NORMAL CURVE

Figure 6 P(x1 < X < x2) = area


of the shaded region

16
17
CONT…

Figure 8 The original and transformed normal distributions

18
EXAMPLE 6.2
Given a standard normal distribution, find the area under the
curve that lies
a) to the right of 𝑧 = 1.84, and
b) between 𝑧 = −1.97 and 𝑧 = 0.86.

Figure 9 Areas for Example 6.2 19


Solution:
a) The area in Figure (a) to the right of 𝑧 = 1.84 is equal to 1
minus the area in Table A.3 to the left of 𝑧 = 1.84,
namely, 1 − 0.9671 = 0.0329.

b) The area in Figure (b) between 𝑧 = −1.97 and 𝑧 = 0.86 is


equal to the area to the left of 𝑧 = 0.86 minus the area to
the left of 𝑧 = −1.97. From Table A.3 we find the desired
area to be 0.8051 − 0.0244 = 0.7807

20
EXAMPLE 6.3
Given a standard normal distribution, find the value of 𝑘 such
that
a) 𝑃(𝑍 > 𝑘) = 0.3015 and
b) 𝑃(𝑘 < 𝑍 < −0.18) = 0.4197

Figure 10 Areas for Example 6.3


21
Solution:
a) In Figure (a) we see that the 𝑘 value leaving an area of
0.3015 to the right must then leave an area of 0.6985 to
the left. From the Table A.3 it follows that 𝑘 = 0.52.

b) From Table A.3 we note that the total area to the left of
− 0.18 is equal to 0.4286. In Figure 10 (b) we see that the
area between k and −0.18 is 0.4197 so that the area to
the left of 𝑘 must be 0.4286 − 0.4197 = 0.0089. Hence,
from Table A.3, we have 𝑘 = −2.37

22
EXAMPLE 6.4
Given a random variable having a normal distribution with
and , find the probability that assumes a value between and
.
Transform to
standard normal Z
Solution:
P(45 < X < 62) = P(z1 < Z < z2 )

Figure 11 Area for Example 6.4


23
EXAMPLE 6.5
Given that 𝑋 has a normal distribution with 𝜇 = 300 and 𝜎 =
50, find the probability that 𝑿 assumes a value greater than
362.
Solution:
Figure 12 Area for Example 6.5
362 − 300
Z= = 1.24
50

24
EXAMPLE 6.6
Given a normal distribution with 𝜇 = 40 and σ = 6, find the
value of 𝑥 that has
a) 45% of the area to the left, and
b) 14% of area to the right

Figure 13 Areas for Example 6.6

25
Solution:

a)

b)

26
EXAMPLE 6.7

27
EXAMPLE 6.8

28
EXAMPLE 6.9
In an industrial process the diameter of a ball bearing is an important component
part. The buyer sets specifications on the diameter to be 3.0 ± 0.01 cm. The
implication is that no part falling outside these specifications will be accepted. It is
known that in the process the diameter of a ball bearing has a normal distribution
with mean 𝜇 = 3.0 and standard deviation σ = 0.005. On average, how many
manufactured ball bearings will be scrapped?

29
EXAMPLE 6.10
Gauges are used to reject all components for which a certain
dimension is not within the specification 1.50 ± d. It is known
that this measurement is normally distributed with mean 1.50
and standard deviation 0.2. Determine the value d such that
the specifications “cover” 95% of the measurements.

30
EXAMPLE 6.11
A certain machine makes electrical resistors having a mean
resistance of 40 ohms and a standard deviation of 2 ohms.
Assuming that the resistance follows a normal distribution
and can be measured to any degree of accuracy, what
percentage of resistors will have a resistance exceeding 43
ohms?

Answer:
6.68% of the resistors will have a resistance exceeding 43 ohms.
31
EXAMPLE 6.12
Find the percentage of resistances exceeding 43 ohms for
Example 6.11 if resistance is measured to the nearest ohm.

32
EXAMPLE 6.13
The average grade for an exam is 74, and the standard
deviation is 7. If 12% of the class is given As, and the grades
are curved to follow a normal distribution, what is the lowest
possible A and the highest possible B?

Answer:
The lowest A is 83 and the highest B is 82.
33
NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO THE
BINOMIAL

A common rule of thumb is that the normal approximation works well when np
> 5 and n(1-p) > 5

Figure 6.22 Normal approximation of b(x; 15,0.4)


34
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
§ Although the normal distribution can be used to solve many
problems in engineering and science, there are still numerous
situations that require different types of density functions.
§ Exponential Distribution can be used to model the amount of
time until a specific event occurs or to model the time between
independent events
§ Has memoryless property (waiting time)
q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKF-RJ_bPVY

§ It is a special case of the gamma distribution 𝒇 𝒙; 𝜶, 𝜷 when


𝜶 = 𝟏.
§ Some examples where an exponential distribution is appropriate
are:
q The time until the computer locks up

q The time between arrivals of telephone calls

q The time until a part fails.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT-0oCOQrBY 35
36
37
EXAMPLE 6.17
Suppose that a system contains a certain type of component
whose time, in years, to failure is given by 𝑇. The random
variable 𝑇 is modelled nicely by the exponential distribution
with mean time to failure β = 5. If 5 of these components are
installed in different systems, what is the probability that at
least 2 are still functioning at the end of 8 years?
Solution:
The probability whether the component is still functioning at
the end of 8 years 1
¥
-8 5
P(T > 8) = ò e-t 5dt = e » 0.2
58
The probability whether at least 2 out of 5 such component
are still functioning at the end of 8 years
5 1
P( X ³ 2) = å b( x;5, 0.2) = 1 - å b( x;5, 0.2) = 1 - 0.7373 = 0.2627
x=2 x =0
38
EXAMPLE

39
EXAMPLE

40
EXAMPLE

Solution:

41
SOME CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS

42
EXERCISES
§ Do all related exercises from the textbook

43
44
45

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