NYISO 2023 Power Trends

New York ISO
2023 Power Trends
A Balanced
Approach to
a Clean and
Reliable Grid
THE NEW YORK ISO ANNUAL GRID & MARKETS REPORT
New York ISO
POWER TRENDS 2023 is the NYISO’s annual analysis of factors influencing New York
State’s power grid and wholesale electricity markets. Begun in 2001 as Power Alert,
the report provides a yearly review of key developments and emerging issues.
POWER TRENDS 2023 DATA is from the 2023 Load & Capacity
Data Report (also known as the Gold Book), unless otherwise noted.
Published annually by the NYISO, the Gold Book presents

New York Control Area system, transmission and generation data
and NYISO load forecasts of peak demand, energy requirements,
energy efficiency, and emergency demand response; existing and
proposed resource capability; and existing and proposed
transmission facilities.
The Gold Book and other NYISO publications are available

on the NYISO website, visit www.nyiso.com
THE NEW YORK INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR, INC. (NYISO)

is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the state’s bulk electricity grid,
administering New York’s competitive wholesale electricity markets, conducting
comprehensive long-term planning for the state’s electric power system, and advancing
the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State.
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Permission to use for fair use purposes, such as educational, political, public policy or news coverage, is granted.
Proper attribution is required: “Power Trends 2023, published by the New York Independent System Operator.” All rights expressly reserved.
From
the CEO
On behalf of our team at the
New York Independent System
Operator, welcome to the
2023 edition of Power Trends.
Power Trends is our flagship publication, summarizing and discussing key issues
shaping the grid of the future. In Power Trends you will learn about our Mission of ensuring
power system reliability and competitive markets for New York in a clean-energy future.
You will also come to understand our Vision of working with all stakeholders to build the
cleanest, most reliable electric system in the nation.
New York’s public policies are increasingly prioritizing

clean energy production and a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.
As articulated in Power Trends, it is imperative that during this time
of rapid change we maintain adequate supply necessary to meet a
growing demand for electricity. Achieving this balance will be the central
challenge to the industry and New York State in the coming years.
The electric system is the backbone of our economy. It preserves the health and safety
of all New Yorkers. At the NYISO, we are champions of the essential role the grid provides
in our daily lives. Since the NYISO’s inception in 1999, preserving electric system reliability
has been our top priority in the face of great change, whether it be societal, policy-based, or
more frequent extreme weather. As new resources transform the way the system responds,
this commitment will remain. Further, competitive electric markets will continue to provide
cost efficiencies and strong investment signals while shifting that investment risk away
from the consumer.
POWER TRENDS 2023 | 1 New Yor

From the CEO
All of us at the NYISO are committed to a continued strong partnership with lawmakers,
policymakers, market participants and industry stakeholders to address priorities set forth
under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). In keeping with our
objective as the authoritative source of information on the electric industry, this year’s
Power Trends provides a summary of opportunities for success in this regard. Power Trends
also presents long-term solutions to address the various challenges facing New York’s grid
and achievement of the state’s climate mandates.
Our promise is always to provide our independent, fact-based perspective and expertise
to assist in the reliable transition to a zero-emission power system. We are proud of that work,
the role we play in serving New York, and we are excited for the future.
Finally, thank you for reading.
Rich Dewey
Rich Dewey,
President & CEO
Information For Policymakers

Through expert system operations, planning, and wholesale electricity market design, the NYISO is working to identify
the reliability needs of the future grid envisioned by New York’s nation-leading climate policy goals. We will continue to
engage policymakers and our stakeholders to design and implement the operations, planning and market enhancements
necessary for the grid in transition, consistent with our mission and vision.
Learn more about the issues currently impacting New York’s grid and the NYISO’s role in this transition:
Planning Wholesale Our Independence

For Reliability Electricity Markets and Transparency
> Grid in Transition >C
ompetitive Wholesale > History
> Addressing Transmission Needs Electricity Markets >R
egulatory and Reliability
> Interconnection Process >H
ow Markets Can Support Organization Oversight
Climate Goals > Independence
> Planning Process
> Electricity Prices in New York
Visit Now: www.nyiso.com/policymakers Follow Us: YouTube, Twitter, and LinkedIn
New YorkTRENDS
2 | POWER ISO 2023
Contents
From the CEO ........................................................................................................ 1
Executive Summary................................................................................................ 5
Figure 1: NYISO 2022 Reliability Needs Assessment Reliability Risk Scenarios ....................... 6
New York’s Electricity Landscape.............................................................................10

Figure 2: Additions, Uprates, & Deactivations Since Approval of the CLCPA
. (Nameplate Capacity).................................................................................................... 13
Planning for the Future Grid....................................................................................14

Reliability Planning Process.................................................................................................... 16
Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR)................................................................... 16
Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA)............................................................................... 16
Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) ............................................................................. 17
System & Resource Outlook .................................................................................................... 17
Figure 3: Outlook Report Renewable Generation Pockets ................................................... 17
Public Policy Transmission Planning ........................................................................................ 18
Figure 4: New Transmission Projects in New York State ..................................................... 19
Interconnection Planning........................................................................................................ 20
New York’s Wholesale Markets Support Reliability and a Clean Energy Transition ...........23
Figure 5: Emission Rates from Electric Generation in New York: 2000-2022 .......................... 24
How NYISO’s Wholesale Electricity Markets Work ....................................................................... 24
Figure 6: Average Annual Natural Gas & Wholesale

Electricity Prices In New York: 2000-2022........................................................................ 25
Figure 7: Historic Average Hourly Demand vs. Actual Yearly Peak Demand (MW) .................. 26

Contents
Figure 8: Statewide Resource Availability: Summer 2023................................................... 26
Figure 9: Historic Average Capacity Spot Auction Clearing Prices: 2018-2022...................... 27
Enhancing Wholesale Electricity Market Design.......................................................................... 28
Accreditation of Capacity Resources ........................................................................................ 28
Enhancing Market Rules for Supply Reserves............................................................................. 29
What to Expect: Next Steps.....................................................................................30

Appendix: NYISO By the Numbers ...........................................................................32
Demand Trends ....................................................................................................32
Figure 10: Actual & Forecast Load (GWh): 2022-2053 ....................................................... 32
Figure 11: Actual & Forecast Annual Peak Demand (MW): 2022-2053.................................. 33
Figure 12: Summer & Winter Peak Demand Forecasts (MW): 2022-2053.............................. 33
Figure 13: Seasonal Hourly Demand Patterns (MW): 2022 ................................................. 34
Figure 14: Projected vs. Current Seasonal Loads (MW)...................................................... 34
Figure 15: Electric Vehicle Energy & Peak Impacts: 2023-2043 .......................................... 35
Supply Trends ......................................................................................................35

Figure 16: Summer & Winter Behind-the-Meter Solar Performance ..................................... 35
Figure 17: Wind Generation & Curtailment (GWh): 2004-2022 ............................................ 36
Figure 18: Energy Storage Nameplate Capacity – BTM Storage Only (MW) ........................... 36
Figure 19: Summer 2023 Installed Capacity (MW) by Fuel Source –

Statewide, Upstate, & Downstate New York ...................................................................... 37
Figure 20: 2022 Energy Production (GWh) by Fuel Source –

. Statewide, Upstate, & Downstate New York ...................................................................... 38
Figure 21: Historical Generating Capacity Fuel Mix in New York State: 2000-2023 ................ 39
Glossary..............................................................................................................40
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4 | POWER ISO 2023
Executive Power Trends
Key Messages
Summary > Public Policies are driving rapid

change in the electric system in the
state, impacting how electricity is
produced, transmitted, and consumed.
> Reliability margins are shrinking.

Electrification programs are driving
demand for electricity higher.
The reliability of the electric system is an essential Generators are retiring at a faster pace
component for a vibrant economy, and necessary to than new renewable supply is entering
ensure the health and safety for all New Yorkers. At the service. The potential for delays
same time, battling the detrimental effects of climate in construction of new supply and
transmission, higher than forecasted
change is imperative. The NYISO is committed to a
demand, and extreme weather could
carefully planned approach to enable a reliable grid threaten reliability and resilience to
transition. We are also committed to meeting state and the grid.
federal policy objectives.
> Driven by public polices, new supply,
State climate and energy policy objectives are driving load and transmission projects are
rapid and dynamic change to decarbonize New York’s seeking to interconnect to the grid at
electric system, building stock and transportation sector. record levels. NYISO's interconnection
The New York State power system is operated to the process balances developer needs with
grid reliability. Efforts are underway to
strictest reliability standards in the nation. This places
make this process more efficient while
New York at the forefront in balancing the need to address protecting grid reliability.
the harmful impacts of climate change, while delivering
> To achieve the mandates of the
reliable electric service to consumers.
CLCPA, new emission-free supply with
The pace of change is accelerating with the increased the necessary reliability services will
adoption of electric vehicles, and electric heating be needed to replace the capabilities of
equipment to replace fossil fuel sources of building heat. today's generation. Such new supply is
In the New York City metropolitan area, data shows a not yet available on a commercial scale.
continued rise in economic activity coming out of the
> New wholesale electricity market
pandemic. Across upstate New York, energy intensive rules are supporting the grid in
microchip manufacturing facilities are developing in transition. These markets are critical
several locations. Together, these elements are increasing for a reliable transition.
The NYISO is committed to a carefully planned, balanced approach

to enable a reliable grid transition. We are also
committed to meeting state and federal policy objectives.

Executive Summary
FIGURE 1: NYISO 2022 RELIABILITY NEEDS demand for electricity. However, pursuant to
ASSESSMENT RELIABILITY RISK SCENARIOS public policies, fossil fuel generation is retiring
faster than renewable resources are entering
2023 service, leading to declining reliability margins
across the state, but most acutely in the New
York City area.
State policies, specifically the Climate
Leadership and Community Protection Act
2025 (CLCPA), require an emission-free electric
system by 2040. As the independent grid
NYC reliability Potential operator in New York, our mission is to ensure
margin narrows reliability risks
a reliable electric grid during the transition to
to 50 MW due in prolonged
to "peaker" heatwave
the new clean energy technologies that will
retirements scenarios support the economy and the health and safety
of New Yorkers. To achieve this, new clean
energy supply will need to interconnect to the
2026 grid at a pace commensurate with the departure
CHPE proposed of existing supply. Just as importantly, new
in-service date supply in total must provide reliability services
expected to deliver comparable to departing supply so that, in
1,250 MW from
aggregate, the grid remains reliable and
Hydro Quebec to
New York City
resilient through this transition and beyond.
The NYISO evaluates the reliability
2028-2029 implications of this transition on a regular
basis, conducting a variety of studies that
Gas shortages
help determine if reliability could be at risk in
and extreme
winter weather the future. Our Reliability Needs Assessment
Reliability (RNA) and Comprehensive Reliability Plan
could trigger
concerns arise if (CRP) regularly assess the state of change on
reliability
CHPE is delayed
concerns the grid and determine what new resources
beyond 2026
starting as early and transmission upgrades may be needed to
as 2028 and
maintain reliability. Of note, the RNA discusses
extend for years
the importance to reliability of the Champlain
to come
Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project, which
2031-2032 will connect generation in Quebec to New York
City beginning in 2026. The 2022 RNA finds
Expected New York
reliability margins within New York City may
City reliability
not be sufficient even for expected weather if the
margin to be
roughly 100 MW CHPE project experiences a significant delay. A
under assumed delay in this project could result in substantially
conditions increased risks to reliability by 2028.
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6 | POWER ISO 2023
Executive Summary
We also perform quarterly Short-Term Assessments of Reliability (STAR) that look ahead five
years to identify risks to reliability. These reports and others help us determine the steps necessary to
prepare for future grid demand and to inform policymakers, developers, and stakeholders.
A balanced and carefully planned transition from the power system of today to the clean-energy
grid is essential to avoid the risks to reliability experienced recently in other areas of the United States.
According to the NYISO’s System and Resource Outlook report, fulfilling the objectives of the CLCPA and
other state, federal and local climate policies will require an unprecedented level of investment in new
supply and transmission infrastructure at a time when reliability margins are thinning. NYISO’s System
and Resource Outlook report and New York State estimates indicate that our state will need to triple the
amount of clean energy supply currently on the grid by 2040 to achieve the zero-emission electricity
supply required by the CLCPA. Economic and technological uncertainties, geopolitical issues, siting and
permitting uncertainties, and persistent supply chain constraints affecting the power industry on a
global scale are impacting the pace of investment in New York.
The CLCPA mandates decarbonization of the electric system as well as the transportation and building
sectors. Protecting the economy and the health and safety of all New Yorkers also demands that
the electric system must remain reliable during the transition. The NYISO’s core mission is to ensure
reliability of the grid in New York. Recent electric system outages in other areas of the United States are
reminders of the humanitarian and economic crises that arise from extended large-scale outages.
To avoid these risks, a balanced approach that considers reliability and clean energy objectives is
essential. For example, in response to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation’s
“Peaker Rule,” fossil fuel generation is deactivating faster than
new clean energy resources are connecting to the grid, putting > Energy Storage
reliability margins at risk. As of May 2023, the Peaker Rule has Resources (ESRs)
resulted in the closure of 950 megawatts of inefficient generation in are devices used to capture
environmental justice areas, where the health impacts of exposure energy produced at one time
for use at a later time. ESRs
to emissions are well-documented. Additional closures stemming
include technologies like
from the rule are expected in 2025. The Peaker Rule includes batteries and pumped hydro
provisions which allow generation to remain in operation for storage. ESRs promote
limited timeframes to address reliability needs arising from their reliability and efficiency, shift
deactivation. These important provisions of the DEC’s rule serve load, manage intermittent
as a model for policymakers to consider when developing new renewable energy, and reduce
transmission congestion.
requirements impacting the retirement of fossil generation and
the associated reliability of the grid.
Electric supply from solar and wind resources is intermittent because those resources are
dependent upon weather conditions and are unable to increase output to respond to changing
system conditions. Energy Storage Resources (ESRs) offer great promise, but the amount of energy
they can contribute to the grid, and the length of time they can perform, is limited today. By 2040, to
achieve the mandates of the CLCPA, new emission-free generating technologies with the necessary
reliability service attributes will be needed to replace the flexible, dispatchable capabilities of fossil
fuel generation, and sustain production for extended periods of time. Such emission-free technologies,
either individually or in aggregate, are not yet available on a commercial scale.

Executive Summary
The NYISO’s first quarter 2023 STAR report shows that the growth in demand due to
electrification coupled with the retirement of fossil fuel based peaker plants is leading to declining
reliability margins statewide and most acutely in New York City. This STAR report notes that the
confluence of these events presents significant challenges and risks to the reliability of the electric
system in New York beginning in 2025. It concludes that, because of these conditions, the NYISO will
likely need to designate peaker plants affected by the DEC’s Peaker Rule to remain in service beyond
2025, until other permanent solutions are completed to maintain a reliable grid.
In response to the CLCPA and other public policies, the number of transmission and supplier
projects seeking to interconnect to the grid in New York has more than quadrupled since 2019. The
interconnection process ensures open access for new supply, transmission, and large consumers of
electricity, and is an essential element in maintaining the performance and reliability of the grid. The
process is coordinated by the NYISO but requires significant involvement by both the electric utilities
and developers. Each party plays an important role in the success of the process. To address the
increase in projects, the NYISO is working with stakeholders to implement improvements to the
efficiency of the interconnection study process while maintaining grid reliability.
Several transmission projects are under construction and expected to be in operation by 2026.
These projects are essential to achieving the state's climate and energy goals and expanding the delivery
of clean energy to consumers. However, additional transmission investments will be necessary to
efficiently integrate offshore wind resources and address transmission constraints throughout the
state that otherwise limit the ability to deliver renewable energy to consumers. NERC’s 2023 Summer
Reliability Assessment identifies reduced supply reserve margins in regions neighboring the NYISO in its
risk analysis. These reduced margins potentially limit the ability to import electricity from neighboring
regions, putting greater importance on available supply and transmission within New York.
The competitive wholesale electricity markets administered by the NYISO are an important tool to
help mitigate the developing risks described above by incentivizing the most cost-effective solutions
for consumers. The markets send price signals for new market entry and retention of resources
necessary for maintaining reliability at the lowest cost. Future reliability risks and resource needs may
Managing the grid reliably through this transition

is the NYISO's mission.
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POWER ISO 2023
TRENDS 2023
Executive Summary
be resolved by new supply coming into service, construction

of additional transmission facilities, and/or increased energy
Mission
efficiency and integration of demand response resources. Ensure power system reliability
and competitive markets for New
A balanced approach to the retirement and addition
York in a clean energy future.
of resources is essential for grid reliability, economic
efficiency, and the environment.
Vision
The NYISO’s wholesale electricity markets continue
Working together with
to lead the way toward a cleaner, resilient, and efficient
stakeholders to build the cleanest,
electricity grid. In 2022, the Federal Regulatory Energy most reliable electric system
Commission (FERC) accepted the NYISO’s groundbreaking in the nation.
proposal to enhance capacity markets for investment in
new clean energy technologies. These reforms serve as a A Powerful
new national model for wholesale electricity market design,
addressing the issue of federal versus state oversight of
Purpose
capacity markets while also strengthening reliability and Maintaining
economic efficiency. Additional market enhancements are and enhancing
underway to help meet the requirements of public policy, regional reliability
strengthen the grid, and position the competitive markets
for future technologies. Operating
Managing the grid reliably through this transition is open and fair wholesale
electricity markets
the NYISO’s mission. The NYISO’s expertise in operating
the power system in the state is essential for a reliable
grid in transition. The NYISO’s independent, fact-based Planning
the bulk power
planning studies will continue to inform market participants,
system for the future
developers, and policymakers on the implications of
public policies, technological advancements, and economic
Providing
investment conditions impacting the needs of the grid and factual information
the pace of change on the electric system. to policymakers,
stakeholders and investors
Regulatory & Reliability Shared Governance Independence

Organization Oversight This process engages The NYISO is transparent, open,
The NYISO serves New Yorkers under suppliers, transmission owners, and independent of its stakeholders.
the oversight of the Federal Energy consumers, environmental and We are a registered 501(c)3 not-for-
Regulatory Commission, the New environmental justice interests, profit corporation. NYISO and its
York Public Service Commission, the and state organizations to directors, executives ad employees
North American Electric Reliability facilitate the development of are prohibited from having
Corp., the New York State Reliability the rule and processes for financial interests in any company
Council, and the Northeast Power a reliable and economically- participating in New York wholesale
Coordinating Council. efficient grid in New York. competitive electricity markets.

New York's
Electricity
Landscape
New York’s renewable energy and environmental requirements are driving profound changes on
the electric system. State and local requirements have created what are arguably the most ambitious
energy and environmental policies in the nation. The questions of how to maintain system reliability
and cost efficiency as we progress towards the state’s objectives are central issues for the NYISO, our
stakeholders, and policymakers
Each second, every day, the NYISO operates the New York power system to the strictest reliability
standards in the nation. The NYISO’s markets, operations, and planning responsibilities are regulated
by the FERC and, in certain aspects, by the New York State Public Service Commission (NYPSC).
Reliability standards and rules established by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation
(NERC) and the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) shape our operations, planning, and
cybersecurity rules and practices. Given the unique aspects of the New York power system, and New
York City’s importance as an economic center for the nation, the New York State Reliability Council
(NYSRC) was created to establish state-specific reliability rules.
Each second, every day, the NYISO operates

the New York power system to the
strictest reliability standards in the nation.
New York TRENDS

10 || POWER
POWERISO
TRENDS2023
2023
New York's Electricity Landscape
State Energy Policy Mandates

STATE ENERGY POLICY MANDATES
2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
6,000 MW 185 Trillion 10,000 MW 70% 3,000 MW 9,000 MW 100% 85%

Distributed BTU Distributed Renewable Battery Offshore Zero-Emissions Reduction
solar Reduction solar Energy Storage Wind Electricity in GHG
Energy 6,000 MW Economy-
efficiency announced wide
In addition to establishing technology and emissions

targets, the CLCPA’s Final Scoping Plan anticipates that annual
electricity demand “will more than double by 2050” and
calls for enhancements to the electric grid to “improve the
efficiency, delivery, and reliability of electricity, facilitate the
integration of renewable energy, and prioritize clean resources
consistent with the Climate Act.” This combination of mandates
for clean energy production and significant added demand on Planning for
the grid is creating challenges and complications for balancing
load with supply.
the Peaker Rule
Adding to the challenge is pressure to eliminate fossil > Quarterly, the NYISO and
fuel generating resources from the grid, which has the net the impacted utilities evaluate
effect of causing generation to exit the grid faster than new the reliability needs from
deactivations, load growth,
resources can be added. The most pressing example of these
changes to the transmission
forces is the New York State Department of Environmental system, other factors.
Conservation’s “Peaker Rule.” Adopted at the end of 2019,
the Peaker Rule is impacting approximately 3,300 megawatts > If a reliability need is
(MW) of dispatchable and flexible electricity generation, identified, the NYISO
solicits and selects solutions
primarily downstate. The rule, which imposes stricter nitrogen
to address the need.
oxide emission rate caps, takes effect in 2023 and imposes
even stricter limits in 2025. This reduction in supply is coming > Following the evaluation,
at a time when demand is expected to grow in response to the NYISO will likely need to
electrification policies and economic conditions. designate affected peaker
plants to remain in service
Importantly, the Peaker Rule includes a reliability beyond 2025, until other
consideration that allows for generation to remain in permanent solutions are
operation for up to four additional years if reliability needs completed.

arise from their deactivation. On a quarterly basis, the NYISO and

the responsible impacted utilities evaluate whether any reliability
Wholesale needs arise from generator deactivations, load growth, changes

to the transmission system, and other factors. Should a reliability
Electricity need be identified, the NYISO solicits and selects the solutions
Prices to address the need. Following the evaluation of any proposed
solutions, the NYISO will likely need to designate affected peaker
are directly influenced by the
plants to remain in service beyond 2025, until other permanent
cost of the fuels used to
solutions are completed to maintain a reliable grid.
produce electricity. Spiking
global demand for fossil fuels, While the CLCPA and the Peaker Rule were put into place
lagging supply, and instability prior to the economic disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic,
caused by war, have combined subsequent geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated supply-chain
to bring fossil fuel prices to
constraints, price volatility, and inflationary pressures. And while
historic high levels.
those events could not have been foreseen by policymakers when
> Wholesale electricity prices the CLCPA or the Peaker Rule were put into place, the current
also rise and fall with power investment landscape is driving increased costs and delays in
demand. Lower demand for
the development of new supply and transmission necessary to
electricity allows a larger
decarbonize the grid and support reliability.
proportion of electricity to be
generated by more efficient and Wholesale electricity markets in New York are designed
less costly facilities, resulting to meet the electricity needs of consumers in the most cost-
in lower wholesale prices. efficient and reliable manner possible, even when the factors
And higher demand results in
that influence those costs, like fuel, materials, and labor,
higher prices.
put upward pressure on prices. Since 1999, when wholesale
> The wholesale cost of electricity markets were established in New York, consumers have
electricity is often reflected in seen considerable benefits. Market prices serve as a transparent
the “Supply” portion of a typical
signal to suppliers, consumers, developers, and policymakers of
retail consumer’s electricity
system needs. The NYISO uses a competitive auction structure
bill. How wholesale electricity
prices influence the “Supply” to establish the wholesale cost of electricity supplied to the grid.
portion of a retail bill varies The benefit of the NYISO-administered competitive wholesale
between providers, depending electricity markets directly benefit customers by procuring
on their procurement and electricity services to maintain grid reliability in the most
cost-hedging strategies. cost-efficient manner available for consumers.
The components of retail
electricity bills are regulated The structure of the NYISO-administered competitive
by the NYPSC. wholesale electricity markets is particularly advantageous for
lower emitting energy suppliers with lower fuel costs like wind,
hydro, and nuclear because they are more likely to be selected
to supply electricity any time they are capable of producing
energy. This market design has also historically incentivized
existing resources to improve efficiency and reduce costs to
increase their chances of being selected by the NYISO market to
meet demand. As new resources enter the market and existing
resources improve their efficiency, competitive forces effectively
push less-efficient, higher-cost resources out of the market.
New York ISO

12 | POWER TRENDS 2023
Additions
& Uprates
2,034 MW
FIGURE 2:
ADDITIONS,
UPRATES, &
DEACTIVATIONS
SINCE
APPROVAL OF
THE CLCPA
(NAMEPLATE
Deactivations
CAPACITY)
-4,705 MW
In this manner, wholesale competitive markets provide a structure

for continuous improvement in overall efficiency, which benefits
consumers, achieves lower emissions and supports reliability. Environmental
Wholesale electricity prices rise and fall reflecting the balance
of supply and demand. With generator deactivations accelerating
Justice and
in response to public policies, the thinning margin between supply A Just
and demand is driving prices upward. This has served as a strong Transition
and clear signal for investment in new, efficient supply. The CLCPA
> Meeting the environmental
and other state policies limit the type of supply that can be built to justice objectives of the CLCPA
non-emitting sources that do not offer the same reliability services is critical to the state’s policies.
provided by the departing resources. A just transition must consider
reliability and the toll on public
In addition, in the absence of the ability to reinvest in existing
health, safety, and welfare if
generation, aging units that will continue to operate and be
reliability is not maintained.
depended on for reliability throughout the transition of the grid Balancing reliability with the
may be more prone to mechanical failures. need for a cleaner power system
If reliability margins decrease to a level in violation of any will be key to realizing
a successful transition.
applicable reliability rules, the NYISO is obligated under its
federally regulated tariffs to pursue solutions to resolve the > Expanding our understanding of
reliability issue. The peaker plants located in New York City environmental justice concerns
protect system reliability, but are located in environmental justice will be necessary as we plan
communities that have limited access to cleaner electric supply the system, enhance wholesale
from other areas of the state due to transmission limitations. electricity markets, and integrate
clean energy. To this end, the
Sustaining reliability in these communities throughout the
NYISO is expanding the expertise
transition towards cleaner resources will be critical to achieving a
provided by our long-standing
just transition of the electric system as envisioned by the CLCPA. Environmental Advisory Council
Achieving state policy mandates reliably while also protecting to provide insight into the state’s
communities from the risk of power outages is a NYISO priority. social justice challenges.

Planning
for the
Future Grid
The NYISO’s planning processes are an essential element of the NYISO’s mission of ensuring
power system reliability and competitive markets for New York in a clean energy future. The
NYISO’s planning processes serve this mission by identifying future system needs and enabling
investment to meet those needs long before there is an impact to consumers. The NYISO’s planning
function has taken on even greater complexity as reliability is increasingly impacted by public policy
mandates, advancing technology and more frequent extreme weather.
NYISO planners continuously study the electric system to identify and address changes that risk
reliability. The NYISO takes a comprehensive approach to studying the grid’s reliability, using near-term
and longer-range forecasts to monitor changes and identify concerns. The NYISO is required to perform
these planning functions consistent with our FERC-regulated tariffs and all applicable reliability
standards. These functions include several studies and reports that analyze the system in the near
and the long term. NYISO planners evaluate the reliability of the system by assessing available supply,
expected demand, and risks such as the effects of extreme weather. Planners also evaluate the system
The NYISO's planning processes serve the mission

by identifying future system needs and
enabling investment to meet those needs
long before there is an impact to consumers.
New York TRENDS

14 || POWER
POWERISO
TRENDS2023
2023
Planning for the Future Grid
from an economic investment perspective, identifying investment

opportunities that may improve the efficiency of the grid. Further,
NYISO planners evaluate transmission expansion needs driven Planning,
by public policies. If the state formally identifies such policies, the Reports &
NYISO then solicits and selects projects to address the identified
needs.
Studies
Forecasting future demand on the power grid often begins > We conduct numerous studies
by understanding how things like weather and temperature and reports to prepare for
changes can influence demand. For instance, air conditioning New York's future energy needs,
is largely responsible for driving summer peak demand, as well as provide detailed
information to policymakers,
and, increasingly, heating load will drive winter demand.
stakeholders and investors
Understanding that relationship is important to prepare the grid
in the power system.
to reliably meet peak demand conditions. Decades of experience
on how temperatures influence demand from air conditioning > Comprehensive Reliability
helps the NYISO accurately forecast future load, but little data Report (CRP): Integrates all of
exists on newer technologies like heat pumps and electric the planning studies into a ten
vehicles with changes on demand patterns from consumer year reliability for New York.
behavior and adoption rates. Extreme weather associated
with climate change is an additional risk factor impacting grid > Reliability Needs Assessment
planning efforts. (RNA): Evaluates the reliability
of the New York bulk electric
The CLCPA and new clean energy policies approved in 2023
system considering forecasts
require significant electrification of the building sector, which of peak power demand, planned
has historically relied almost exclusively on fossil fuels for upgrades to the transmission
heating needs. In fact, only 10% of New York’s homes rely on system, and changes to the
electricity for heat today. To meet state policy targets, electric generation mix over the next
heating penetration would need to grow to 90% by 2050. ten years.
Electric heat pumps are considered the leading technology to
convert fossil-fuel-based furnaces and boilers. As heat pump > System & Resource Outlook
technology proliferates, peak demand on New York’s grid is (Outlook): The Outlook will
expected to shift from summer to winter. provide a comprehensive
overview of system resources
The NYISO continues to conduct a series of important and transmission constraints
planning initiatives to identify risks and opportunities to throughout New York,
transition the grid in a reliable and efficient manner. We have highlighting opportunities for
issued a series of reports that reveal a growing need to achieve a transmission investment driven
careful balance between closing traditional thermal generation by economics and public policy.
and adding new intermittent resources as electrification
advances. Those studies and reports address reliability planning, > Short-Term Assessment of
economic planning, and public policy planning processes. Reliability (STARs): Conducted
every quarter to assess
reliability needs within a
five-year horizon to determine
90%
whether the grid will be able
of New York's homes will need to rely on electricity to supply enough power to
for heating to meet state policy target by 2050. meet demand.

Reliability Planning Process

Maintaining Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR)
Four times each year, we conduct a Short-Term
a reliable grid Assessment of Reliability, which focuses on identifying
reliability needs up to five years into the future. This
> Monitor Risk Factors:
helps to quickly evaluate changes to the system, such
Through our reliability planning
processes, we will continue to
as generator deactivations, changes to the transmission
identify and address risks to system, or changes in demand that could affect reliability.
reliability and resilience. As we perform our study work and look closely at how
the grid is changing in response to policies to reduce
> Monitor & Track Local
fossil fuel dependence, it will be particularly important
Transmission Owner Plans: Local
to monitor the STAR process, as its quarterly reporting
transmission owners need to
enables it to reflect rapid changes in terms of generator
complete the projects identified
in their Local Transmission Owner supply, transmission capability, and load forecasts.
Plans (LTPs), on schedule.
Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA)
> Enhance Grid Interconnection For a longer-term view, our Reliability Needs
Processes: The NYISO is engaged
Assessment looks ahead 10-years. The RNA looks at both
in a significant effort to further
the adequacy of energy resources and limitations of the
improve the interconnection
transmission grid to determine whether the system will
process to drive efficiencies for
new developers seeking to be able to supply enough power to meet demand.
interconnect to the grid while The recent report emphasizes that already-thinning
maintaining reliability. reliability margins could deteriorate further based
> Consider Enhancements to
on identified risk factors, including the potential for
Reliability and Resilience Rules & delays in planned infrastructure investments, more
Procedures: Revisions to current extreme weather, or unexpected generator outages or
reliability rules, procedures, and retirements.
practices may be necessary as
the impacts of climate change,
Key takeaways from the 2022 RNA include:
along with changes to economic
New York City faces the greatest risk from limited
conditions and public policies,
generation and transmission. While the 2022 RNA
place new demands on the grid.
previously identified reliability margins as little as
> Continue Coordination with the 50 MW, based on an updated load forecast, the
New York State Public Service NYISO anticipates that its 2023 second quarter
Commission: Transmission needs STAR will identify reliability needs starting in the
declared by the NYPSC to support summer 2025.
the CLCPA are leading to the largest
investment in decades. If the
The Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE)
NYPSC determines an additional
project, delivering power from Quebec to New
public policy need for new
York City, is proposed to come into service in
transmission, the NYISO will
solicit projects from developers 2026. If CHPE is delayed, the absence of this
to fulfill that need. resource could result in substantially increased
risks to reliability by 2028.
New York ISO

Extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold snaps, or gas shortages could result in
deficiencies to serve demand statewide, especially in New York City where such conditions
could significantly increase the magnitude of emerging reliability concerns.
Increasing levels of intermittent generation combined with increasing demand in response to

electrification are expected to result in at least 17,000 MW of existing fossil-fueled generating
capacity which must be retained to continue to reliably serve forecasted “peak” demand days
in 2030.
Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP)

The CRP integrates STAR reports and the most recent RNA to develop a 10-year reliability analysis
and will be completed in late 2023.
System & Resource Outlook

To analyze how changes in supply and demand will affect the grid of the future and understand
what types of investments will be needed to enable achievement of state policy, in 2022 the
NYISO issued the 2021 – 2040 System & Resource Outlook (the Outlook). This study includes a 20-
year forecast that examines multiple cases and scenarios identifying transmission investment
opportunities and project resource mixes for achieving 2030 and 2040 policy mandates while
maintaining reliability. The Outlook will be updated every two years.
FIGURE 3: OUTLOOK
REPORT RENEWABLE NORTH
GENERATION POCKETS COUNTRY
WESTERN
NEW YORK CAPITAL
REGION
SOUTHERN
Pocket Curtailment Risks TIER Renewable
Resource
High Medium Low Regions
NYC
Off-Shore
Wind
Off-Shore
LI Wind

The Outlook examines a wide range of potential future system conditions and compares possible
pathways to a cleaner resource mix. Under each scenario, the Outlook concludes that unprecedented
levels of investment in generation will be necessary to reliably deliver sufficient energy to meet future
demand. The Outlook concludes that by 2040 New York’s grid would need the following to reliably
meet the goals of the CLCPA and expected peak demand:
■ 111-124 GW of generating capacity, or roughly three times the current capacity connected to the
system.
■ 27-45 GW of this capacity must be from non-emitting resources capable of performing like today’s
fossil fuel-fired generation fleet depending on the scenario. It is especially important to note that
commercially available technologies to provide dispatchable, non-emitting supply do not exist at
scale at this time.
Furthermore, the report finds that extensive transmission investments will be necessary to
deliver renewable energy across the state to consumers and address new constraints that appear
across the electric system resulting from significant new resource additions. The Outlook groups these
constraints into “generation pockets” based on their geographical locations, as shown on the map in
Figure 3. The findings of The Outlook offer insight into where transmission expansion would have the
greatest impact on reducing curtailments of renewable energy production so it can be delivered to
consumers. Pockets exhibiting high risks for curtailment represent transmission needs that must be
addressed to achieve the public policy targets of the CLCPA. The NYISO plans to begin development
the next iteration of the Outlook in 2023.
Public Policy Transmission Planning

In addition to the reliability planning studies and the Outlook, the NYISO also works with the
state and stakeholders to identify transmission expansion needs driven by public policies. New York
has seen the most significant investment in new transmission in decades through the NYISO’s
Public Policy Transmission Planning Process. While the process has been a great success, the NYISO
has called for significant additional transmission investment through its Public Policy Transmission
Planning Process to support the achievement of public policy requirements.
New York has seen the most significant investment

in new transmission in decades through the NYISO's
Public Policy Transmission Planning Process
New York TRENDS

18 || POWER
POWERISO
TRENDS2023
2023
FIGURE 4: NEW TRANSMISSION

PROJECTS IN NEW YORK STATE Champlain Hudson
Power Express (CHPE)
Awarded a Tier 4 REC contract by
NYSERDA in 2022, the 339-mile
cable will deliver 1,250 MW of
emissions-free electricity from
Hydro-Quebec to New York City.
Smart Path Connect The project is scheduled to come
The NYPSC designated development of online in 2026. NYISO reliability
transmission in northern NY to expand reports note that any delays in the
delivery of clean energy to central NY
completion of this project could
by more than 1,000 MW. The project is
lead to reliability challenges in
under construction and expected to
enter service in 2025. the New York City area.
AC Transmission
Public Policy
Transmission Need
The NYPSC identified the need
for transmission investment to
increase power flow of energy
from upstate to downstate by
at least 1,000 MW. Through a
competitive process, the NYISO
selected two teams of developers
to build out the 150-mile project
that is expected to be in service
Western New York by December 2023.
Public Policy
Transmission Need Clean Path NY
A second Tier 4 project
After the NYPSC declared a
selected by NYSERDA in
public policy need for expanded 2022 to deliver clean energy
transmission to enable greater to New York City, the
delivery of hydro resources 174-mile project will deliver
from Niagara, the NYISO 1,300 MW from upstate.
selected a 20-mile, $181 million The project is currently
project through an extensive, undergoing permitting and Long Island Public Policy Transmission Need
competitive process. The interconnection analysis, In 2021, the NYPSC identified a need to expand the transmission
project entered operation in with an expected in-service
capability between Long Island, NYC, and the rest of the state by
June 2022. date of 2027.
at least 3,000 MW to support the CLCPA’s offshore wind requirements.
Expanded transmission is needed to move offshore wind energy
from Long Island to the rest of NY. The NYISO reviewed proposals
and expects to make a final determination in 2023.
A public policy requirement is a federal or state law or regulation, including a NYPSC rulemaking
order, which identifies the need for additional transmission capability in the state. Once the NYPSC
identifies a specific public policy need, the NYISO requests proposals and evaluates the viability and
sufficiency of proposed solutions, selecting the more efficient or cost-effective transmission solution.
In recent years, the NYPSC has identified four specific transmission investment needs being driven
by state policy. One project, located in western New York, was completed last year to expand delivery
of emissions free hydropower to consumers across the state. Two additional projects are under
construction in the Mohawk and Hudson Valley regions and, upon completion, will deliver more than
1,000 MW of additional power from upstate generators to downstate consumers. Together, these three
projects represent the largest investment in transmission infrastructure in New York State in more
than 30 years.

The fourth transmission need identified by the NYPSC seeks to export at least 3,000 MW of
future offshore wind energy from Long Island to New York City and the rest of the state. The NYISO
has issued a solicitation for projects to address this need and identified 16 viable and sufficient
transmission projects for further evaluation and expects to make a final determination by the second
quarter of 2023.
There are several additional transmission development
efforts underway that are driven by state policies but are not
> Renewable
part of the NYISO’s Public Policy Transmission Planning Process.
Energy Credits (RECs)
A mechanism to link the For instance, the Smart Path Connect Transmission Project, is
environmental attributes under development pursuant to New York State’s Accelerated
associated with certain forms Renewable Energy Growth and Community Benefit Act, which
of renewable energy generators enabled the NYPSC to authorize the development of transmission
with the energy produced enhancements to increase delivery of renewable energy from
by those generators. One northern New York and Canada to consumers. Further, two Tier
REC equates to one MWh of 4 transmission projects are under development. In 2020, the
energy generated from eligible NYPSC established a new Tier 4 Renewable Energy Credit (REC)
renewable energy resources. product as part of its Clean Energy Standard for resources that
In New York State, NYSERDA can deliver qualified renewable energy into New York City. Last
procures RECs from eligible
year, the NYPSC approved two Tier 4 contracts. One represents
resources to incentivize
the Champlain-Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project to deliver
development of renewable
Canadian hydropower directly to Queens, and the second is
resources and measure
compliance with the renewable known as Clean Path NY, which proposes to deliver renewable
energy goals. energy from upstate New York directly to New York City. Ground
has been broken for the CHPE project, with a projected in-service
date in 2026. The Clean Path NY project is in the latter stages
of the interconnection process, and is awaiting Article VII certification from the NYPSC, which is a
required predicate to commencing construction of the project.
Interconnection Planning
The number of projects seeking to connect to the grid has more than quadrupled since
enactment of the CLCPA in 2019.
The NYISO must perform a rigorous analysis of all projects seeking to connect to the transmission
system to understand the impact of new resources on the system from a reliability perspective. This is
known as the “interconnection study process.” Projects seeking to connect to the grid are tracked in an
"interconnection queue."
The interconnection process ensures “open access” to the transmission grid for new supply
resources seeking to enter operation and is an essential element in maintaining the performance
and reliability of the electric system. Studying the impacts of each new proposed facility is a major
responsibility, requiring expertise and careful analysis to determine if upgrades are necessary to
maintain the reliability and safety of the electric system. The interconnection process is coordinated
by the NYISO but requires significant involvement by both the electric utilities and the developers.
Each party has an important role to play, and success of the process depends on coordination and
timely delivery of information by all participants.
New York ISO

Transparent and robust rules for reliably connecting

to the grid provide essential information for developers.
Working closely with developers and affected utilities,
studies identify necessary system upgrades and estimated A Growing
costs to allow new resource developers to make informed
investment decisions. Costs identified as necessary to
Volume of
maintain reliability are borne by developers and not Projects
consumers under the NYISO’s interconnection process. Seeking
The focus of the process is on balancing the demands
of open access to the electric system with grid reliability, to Connect
at the most efficient cost to consumers. to the Grid
When studying the interconnection of new generating
resources, each project is studied individually before > The NYISO interconnection
study process is evolving to
eventually being grouped into a “Class Year.” These
address a greater volume of
studies enable developers to make design changes of their
requests. The state's climate
individual projects as they learn about the possible impacts
goals, and the substantial influx
associated with their proposal. of new projects means that
Developers choosing to remain in the queue based additional reforms are needed.
on the results of initial interconnection studies enter a
> Interconnection queue:
“Class Year” where detailed analysis precisely identifies the
A queue of transmission and
reliability impact the group of projects have on the grid.
generation projects that have
The NYISO then assigns the cost of necessary upgrades submitted an Interconnection
to each developer to mitigate the impact on reliability Request to the NYISO to be
of the system. In January 2023, the NYISO completed interconnected to the state’s
Class Year studies for 27 new wind, solar, storage, and electric system. Depending on
transmission expansion projects totaling nearly 7,500 the level of proposed capacity,
MW of clean energy capacity that can proceed towards most projects must undergo
three studies before intercon-
commercial operations."
necting to the grid: a Feasibility
In anticipation that state policies would drive an influx Study (unless parties agree to
of new interconnection requests, the NYISO worked with forego it), a System Reliability
stakeholders to implement a comprehensive redesign of Impact Study (SRIS), and a
the interconnection study process in 2019, offering greater Facilities Study.
flexibility and expedited study options to developers. The
> Class Year: A group of supply
NYISO is engaged in a significant effort in 2023 to further
projects seeking to interconnect
improve the interconnection process through what may be to the transmission system in
wholesale changes to the process to drive efficiencies for similar timeframes, and which
new developers seeking to interconnect to the grid. have reached similar milestones
in their development efforts.
These projects are studied to
500+
assess the cumulative impact
interconnection requests are in the queue they may have on the system
today compared to approximately 120 in 2018. and determine the costs to
mitigate those impacts.

Public Policies Shaping the Grid
Multiple factors outside the scope of the NYISO’s control can impact whether a project
elects to move forward with the interconnection process, including the status of siting and
other regulatory matters, investment risks, eligibility for RECs, and supply-chain concerns.
These factors can result in developers electing to defer or drop out of a Class Year, even after the
final interconnection studies have been completed and interconnection costs have been allocated
and accepted. The Class Year process requires a great deal of time and resources by all parties.
While flexibility may benefit some developers, it may create
inefficiencies for other projects more committed to development.
> Additionalstaff has Going forward, the NYISO and its stakeholders must weigh
been added to address the benefits of this flexibility against the additional resources,
increasing workloads time, and study costs incurred by developers, impacted utilities,
and the NYISO has launched
and the NYISO. To address the increase in projects seeking to
a series of customer focus
connect to the grid, the NYISO is working with stakeholders to
groups, providing for an ongoing
exchange of ideas and informa- implement improvements to the interconnection study process.
tion with all stakeholders. Additional engineers and project management staff have been
hired in the Planning Department to support existing engineers
who are currently shouldering the increased workload. Additional
staff will also help manage timelines and customer service functions. Focus groups with developers
are ongoing to identify additional areas for enhancements. New technology is being developed that
will create efficiencies in managing demands for applicants as well as NYISO staff.
Multiple factors outside the scope of the NYISO's control

can impact whether a project elects to move forward
with the interconnection process.
New York TRENDS

22 || POWER
POWERISO
TRENDS2023
2023
New York's
Wholesale
Markets Safeguarding
Market
Competition
Support Reliability and
> The NYISO has a team of
engineers and economists that
review market performance to
a Clean Energy Transition make sure that prices reflect

market conditions, such as
fuel costs to produce energy.
The NYISO can modify market
participant offers to reference
values if they do not meet
competitive market rules that
Competitive wholesale electricity markets have successfully require that offers appropriately
facilitated efficiency gains on the grid by reducing fuel reflect market conditions.
consumption and lowering consumer costs. Competitive wholesale
electricity markets also shift the risk and cost consequences of > An independent market
resource investment and operational decisions from consumers to monitor evaluates the
performance of the NYISO's
electricity suppliers.
markets each day to make sure
An added benefit of wholesale markets is that competition market outcomes reflect system
by resources rewards economic efficiency. Historically, this conditions. The market rules
has resulted in more modern supply coming onto the grid and and how they are administered
displacing older, less efficient supply. Since 2000, the power are also subject to review by
the independent market monitor
sector’s CO2 emission rate decreased by 42%. Recent increases in
to make sure our market design
the CO2 emission rate coincide with the phased closure of Indian is as efficient as possible.
Point nuclear units 2 and 3 in 2020 and 2021, and corresponding
increases in production from fossil resources needed to meet > FERC's Office of Enforcement
demand and maintain reliability. is active in evaluating markets
and how they are administered.
Competitive wholesale electricity markets are fundamental to
FERC can issue penalties to
providing consumers reliable, lowest-cost power and an essential entities that violate market
mechanism for achieving public policy objectives. rules.

New York's Wholesale Markets
FIGURE 5: EMISSIONS RATES FROM ELECTRIC GENERATION IN NEW YORK: 2000-2022
4.5 0.45
4.0 0.40
NOx and SO2 Emissions Rate (lbs/net MWh)
CO2 Emissions Rate (tons/net MWh)

3.5 0.35
3.0 0.30
2.5
CO2 0.25
2.0
SO2 0.20
1.5 0.15
1.0 0.10
0.5 NOx 0.05
0.0 0.00
2021
2022
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Sources: U.S. EPA, U.S. EIA, RGGI
Wholesale markets are also designed to attract and retain enough supply in the most beneficial
locations to provide needed reliability services. Within today’s system there is a predominance of
large-scale controllable resources that can be dispatched by operators to respond to system needs.
The NYISO is taking numerous steps to ensure its markets continue to attract investment in
resources that are controllable and can respond quickly to changing system conditions that will
be necessary to balance the varying supply from wind and solar in the future.
How NYISO’s Wholesale Electricity Markets Work

Each day, the NYISO conducts wholesale electricity auctions
for market participants to buy and sell electricity. These auctions
> Ancillary Services
ensure sufficient electricity is scheduled to match consumer
are services necessary to
support the transmission of
demand, delivering reliable electricity with the least-cost mix of
capacity and energy from resources available to the grid.
generation resources to Suppliers with lower costs to provide electricity and ancillary
consumers, while maintaining services offer into the market at lower prices. The NYISO calculates
the reliable operation of New market prices by determining the expected demand and evaluating
York's transmission system. offers from suppliers. These offers are ranked by cost from lowest
These services include to highest, with the NYISO’s market software selecting the least
Regulation and Operating
costly resources first, and then continuing to select supply resources
Reserve, Energy imbalance
until the total demand is met and reliability maintained. This means
(using market-based pricing),
that demand also influences prices ― lower demand levels result
and the cost-based services
of Scheduling, System
in selecting resources lower in the cost-ranked stack of supplies.
Control and Dispacth, Voltage Higher demand levels mean higher cost resources need to be
Control and Black Start. selected to meet demand reliably. This auction process results in all
selected suppliers receiving the price set by the last supplier needed
to meet demand ― this is known as the marginal clearing price.
New York ISO

These daily electricity auctions provide for minute-to-minute reliability, with market signals
responding to changing conditions and continuously adjusting output levels of suppliers to match the
instant needs of the grid.
For these daily auctions to function efficiently, operators need a longer-term view into what supply
resources will be available to the grid. The NYISO achieves this certainty through its Installed Capacity
(ICAP) market, which promotes reliability by compensating suppliers for committing to be available to
the grid whenever needed. The NYISO conducts capacity market auctions on a seasonal and monthly
basis to offer suppliers and developers transparent locational pricing signals that reward availability,
performance, and the resource’s contribution towards reliably serving load.
FIGURE 6: AVERAGE ANNUAL NATURAL GAS AND WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY PRICES

IN NEW YORK: 2000-2022
$100 $12
$90
Average Annual Natural Gas Price ($/MMBtu)

$89.23 $10
Average Annual Electricity Price ($/MWH)
$80
$70
$8
$60
$50 $7.01 $6
$40
$30 $4
$20
$10 $2
$0 $0
2021
2022
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Wholesale capacity auctions are conducted in much the same way as wholesale electricity
markets. The NYISO’s monthly capacity spot auctions select the least cost mix of capacity available to
meet resource adequacy needs, which are established every year by the NYSRC in setting the Installed
Reserve Margin (IRM) for the system. The IRM represents the minimum level of capacity, beyond the
forecasted peak demand, which must be procured to serve consumers.
The IRM is established for each capability year (May 1 through April 30) and is used to quantify
the minimum capacity required to meet the NPCC and NYSRC resource adequacy rules. The NYISO, in
assisting the NYSRC, analyzes forecasted demand, supplier performance, transmission capability, and
factors such as extreme weather, to measure the grid’s ability to meet reliability requirements. NYSRC
has noted in several of its annual Installed Capacity Requirement Technical Study reports that the
inclusion of intermittent resources to the grid is a leading factor in establishing higher IRM
requirements.
The IRM for the 2023-2024 capability year is 20.0% of the forecasted NYCA peak load, an increase
from 19.6% last year. Based on a projected summer 2023 peak demand of 32,048 MW and the IRM,
the total installed capacity requirement for the upcoming summer capability period is 38,458 MW.

FIGURE 7: HISTORIC AVERAGE HOURLY DEMAND VS. ACTUAL YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (MW)
40,000
35,000 Peak Demand
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000 Average Hourly Demand
10,000
5,000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
FIGURE 8: STATEWIDE RESOURCE Due to transmission limitations
AVAILABILITY: SUMMER 2023 that restrict the amount of capacity that
can be delivered into certain regions
of the state, the NYISO also establishes
Import
Locational Capacity Requirements (LCRs)
2,142 Capability
for the Hudson Valley (Zones G-J), New
Installed 1,226 Demand
Reserve 6,410 Response
York City (Zone J), and Long Island (Zone
Margin K). Without sufficient local generating
capacity to serve demand, these regions
would face reliability concerns during
periods of higher demand. The NYISO’s
LCRs set the minimum amount of
capacity that must be physically located
In-State
36,894 Generation
within these regions to support reliability.
Load LCRs for the 2023-24 capability year
Forecast 32,048 are 85.4% in the Hudson Valley region,
81.7% in New York City, and 105.2% in
the Long Island capacity region. Given
the planned reduction in generation
capability in response to the Peaker Rule,
capacity market prices in New York City
are expected to be higher this summer
REQUIRED AVAILABLE
RESOURCES RESOURCES than in recent years, reflective of the
tighter margins of capacity available to
38,458 MW 40,262 MW serve customers.
New York ISO

Taken together, competitive wholesale energy, ancillary services, and capacity markets
are fundamental to providing consumers reliable, lowest-cost power and an essential tool for
achieving public policy objectives. The NYISO is continuously working with its stakeholders to
identify ways to refine and enhance its markets in response to policies and the changing resource mix.
FIGURE 9: HISTORIC AVERAGE CAPACITY SPOT AUCTION CLEARING PRICES: 2018-2022
$20
$18 New York Control Area
$16 Zones GHIJ
$14 New York City

$ kw/month
$12 Long Island
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Winter Storm Elliott: How to Keep the

Grid Reliable During Extreme Weather
The Value of Resource Flexibility, Market Operations, and Planning
Winter Storm Elliott rolled through the United States in late December 2022, bringing cold temperatures, strong winds
and massive snowfall totals. New York was especially hard hit from December 23rd through December 27th.
Considering the forecasted impacts of Winter Storm Elliott, NYISO Operations began coordinating with the New York
Transmission Owners and Generation Owners to restore generation and transmission facilities from maintenance
outages. The NYISO also coordinated with regulators and neighboring regions to prepare for the storm, and continued
coordination efforts throughout the event.
The storm impacted New York in several different ways. By Friday afternoon, December 23rd, a strong cold front
moved from the west across the state causing a rapid drop in temperatures, leading to a change in precipitation from
rain to snow and sustained high winds. NYISO load forecasters largely got the forecasts right. While low temperatures
on Saturday, December 24th, were slightly below the NYISO’s forecast, actual peak loads during the event remained
below seasonal forecast conditions due to lower electric demand over the weekend and holiday period.
When the natural gas system became constrained due to demand tied to home and business heating, the dual-fuel
capability of generators, particularly in downstate New York, became key to maintaining reliability during the storm.
Thanks to accurate load forecasts and the responsible efforts of New York’s generators and transmission owners,
the bulk electric system performed well across New York during Winter Storm Elliott.

Enhancing Wholesale Electricity

Market Design
NYISO's Shared The NYISO’s market design must provide proper
Governance incentives to new and existing resources that can respond
and follow dispatch signals in all types of conditions,
> What is it: The NYISO and its harnessing competition to minimize consumer costs
stakeholders utilize a shared while maintaining reliable service and assisting with
governance process to estab- the achievement of policy goals. Further, with many
lish wholesale market rules and
conventional resources slated to retire due to emissions
processes associated with grid
restrictions, markets will also be relied on to sufficiently
planning and operations.
incentivize investments in new technologies which
> Members: Generation Owners, may include long-duration storage, hydrogen fueled
Other Suppliers, Transmission generators, and other non-emitting, dispatchable
Owners, Public Power & technologies.
Environmental Parties, End-Use The NYISO has identified certain key market
Consumers, Non-Voting Entities enhancements to maintain the alignment between
> Benefits: Stakeholders have
emerging reliability needs and market incentives. The
a greater voice in the operation NYISO has and is continuing to work with stakeholders to
& evolution of the electricity address these market enhancements, which include:
marketplace. Transparent,
inclusive, and collaborative Accreditation of Capacity
process, diverse viewpoints Resources
and ideas are exchanged, and
the goal is a to develop market To ensure rules intended to preserve competition in
rule enhancements which improve the capacity market do not interfere with the state’s clean
efficiency and reflect broad energy policies, the NYISO engaged with stakeholders
stakeholder support. and policymakers to revise its buyer-side capacity market
mitigation (BSM) measures. If these rules did not evolve,
they were likely to complicate achievement of the CLCPA
targets by presenting a hurdle for new entrants necessary
to achieve New York State’s policy objectives.
150+ shared governance

members
200+ stakeholder meetings

in 2022
New York ISO

In conjunction with these reforms, the NYISO

also pursued capacity accreditation market rules to
more accurately reflect capacity market suppliers’
contributions to resource adequacy. These new market
Wholesale
rules align compensation for capacity suppliers with Electricity
an individual resource’s expected reliability benefit to
consumers. The groundbreaking proposal was accepted
Markets
by FERC in May 2022. These reforms serve as a new > Every 5 minutes,
national model for wholesale electricity market design, 24/7, 365 days a year
electricity is bought and
addressing long-standing tensions between federal
sold through wholesale
and state oversight of capacity markets while also energy markets.
strengthening reliability and economic efficiency.
> Energy markets: Provide
Further work with stakeholders to enhance wholesale day-ahead and real-time
markets in New York continues. The NYISO is developing commitments to meet load.
enhanced capacity ratings for supply resources that
reflect the marginal contribution to meeting resource > Ancillary services: Every
adequacy criterion, accounting for power grid changes, six seconds resources
resource availability, performance, and correlated compete to respond to
outages. changing system needs.
Enhancing Market Rules for > Capacity markets: Ensure

enough generation is available
Supply Reserves to meet peak demand and
Dynamically determining operating reserve needs encourage generators to invest
in new technology.
is a novel approach being explored by the NYISO that
would result in more efficient scheduling of operating
> Effective and competitive
reserves based on system conditions and transmission wholesale electricity markets
system capability. This will allow for appropriate reserves Align investment signals with
to be procured to support the integration of large system needs, support and
amounts of intermittent resources. It will also allow for enhance grid reliability, create
more reserves to be scheduled in cost-effective regions. a cleaner, more cost-efficient
Resources capable of providing reliability services when grid, and drive needed energy
they are needed due to transmission constraints or infrastructure investment to
potential for sudden losses of supply resources will be achieve the CLCPA goals.
compensated more commensurate with their locational
value.
The NYISO is also working with stakeholders to
expand ancillary services products to better support
reliable grid operations and assist in balancing the
intermittent nature of the anticipated renewable
generation fleet. These products will help signal the grid
attributes that are expected to become scarcer as fossil
fuel generators deactivate.

What to
Expect
Next Steps
The grid in New York is undergoing an unprecedented, historic transformation. The NYISO’s
involvement in this transition is significant: operating a changing electric system with new
intermittent resources, studying, and planning for future changes and designing wholesale
markets for a future of newer technologies that will provide flexibility and diversity. Highly skilled
grid operators continue to support reliability and resilience. Through sophisticated modeling and
expertise, NYISO grid planners support reliability and enable record levels of new transmission and
supply development. The NYISO’s wholesale market design continues to lead the way in innovative
market rules, supporting reliability and minimizing costs for consumers.
The NYISO’s role as an independent, authoritative source of information is essential. As we move

towards a zero-emissions grid, it is critical to understand how the growth of intermittent resources
and extreme weather will impact the ability to maintain reliability of the New York electric system.
The retirement of fossil fueled resources driven by public polices is currently outpacing the
development of new renewable energy and other dispatchable, emissions-free resources. The effect
is that reliability margins have thinned to concerning levels, highlighting the need for a carefully
coordinated and orderly transition to maintain grid reliability and resilience.
The NYISO's role as an independent,

authoritative source of information is essential
as we move towards a zero-emissions grid.
New York TRENDS

30 || POWER
POWERISO
TRENDS2023
2023
Next Steps
Public policies have also focused efforts on electrifying building heating and cooking appliances,
as well as expanding electric vehicle adoption to address climate change. This shift is expected to grow
electric demand in winter, eventually making the cold-weather months the highest-demand period of
the year. The NYISO is already working to understand how these new technologies will perform and
what other system changes may be needed.
For the NYISO, our stakeholders, developers, and policymakers, there are key milestones as
the grid transitions which will both influence and reflect the policy, economic, and technological
landscape before us.
These include:
■ July 2023: NYISO issues second quarter Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) Report
which will evaluate the changing mix of supply, transmission capability, and forecasted demand.
■ Summer 2023: Long Island Public Policy Transmission Need selection process is expected
to be completed.
■ Third quarter 2023: NYISO expected to deploy its DER Participation Model software to
support market participation of new distributed resources.
■ Fourth quarter 2023: NYISO expected to deploy the Constraint-Specific Transmission Shortage
Pricing project to enhance the reliability signals produced in the NYISO’s energy markets.
■ Fourth quarter 2023: NYISO issues the 2023 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP),
which will account for the findings of the 2022 RNA and 2023 STAR evaluations.
As policymakers seek widespread change in how energy is produced and consumed, the NYISO
is providing critical data and information on the reliability implications of current and new policies.
The NYISO will continue to be actively engaged with stakeholders and policymakers on the path to a
reliable and lower emissions grid for New York.
The NYISO is leading the way in meeting the challenges before us. The NYISO’s leadership in
developing innovative market design enhancements demonstrates our focus on innovation. The
expertise of our grid operations is unrivaled, and the importance of the skilled and authoritative
system planning work done by the NYISO demonstrates the value of our independence. That success
also demonstrates our ability to work across all sectors and interested parties to build consensus that
supports reliability, consumer interests, climate policies and new technologies that will help build
the grid of the future.

Appendix
NYISO By the Numbers
Demand Trends
FIGURE 10: ACTUAL & FORECAST LOAD (GWh): 2022-2053
350,000
High Demand
300,000 Policy Scenario
250,000 Baseline Forecast
200,000 152,681 GWh

2022 ACTUAL LOAD Lower Demand
150,000 Policy Scenario
100,000
50,000
0
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
FIGURE 10 | This figure presents three scenario forecasts, a baseline forecast that the NYISO
assumes is the most likely outcome based on current observations and assumptions, and two policy
scenarios that represent different paths to achieving full compliance with all state policy targets. For
example, the Lower Demand Policy Scenario assumes greater deployment of behind-the-meter solar
resources and non-plug-in zero-emission vehicles, lowering forecasted demand for electricity. Among
other assumptions that could drive future load higher, the Higher Demand Policy Scenario assumes a
greater reliance on electric resistance heating as opposed to air-source heat pumps.
New York ISO

Appendix: NYISO By the Numbers
FIGURE 11: ACTUAL & FORECAST ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND (MW): 2022-2053
80,000
High Demand
70,000
Policy Scenario
60,000
Lower Demand
50,000
Policy Scenario
40,000 Baseline
30,000
Forecast
20,000
30,505 MW
10,000 2022 ACTUAL PEAK
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
FIGURE 11 | This figure presents three scenario forecasts, a baseline forecast that the NYISO assumes is the most likely
outcome based on current observations and assumptions, and two policy scenarios that represent different paths to achieving
full compliance with all state policy targets. Key differences between the policy scenarios include the types of technologies
adopted to comply with policy requirements as well as the expected adoption of peak-mitigating measures. For example, the
Lower Demand Policy Scenario assumes a higher adoption rate of hydrogen-fueled vehicles to support the state’s transportation
goals and that higher percentages of plug-in electric vehicles practice managed charging to avoid charging during peak demand
periods. The Higher Demand Policy Scenario reflects a greater reliance on plug-in vehicles and a greater degree of unmanaged
charging that can contribute to higher peaks.
FIGURE 12: SUMMER & WINTER PEAK DEMAND FORECASTS (MW): 2022-2053
55,000
50,000
45,000 Winter Peaking

System
40,000
35,000
30,000
Summer Peaking
25,000 System
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
FIGURE 12 | Electrification of the transportation and building sectors will drive winter peak demand higher in the future. In fact,
only 10% of New York’s homes rely on electricity for heat today. To meet state policy targets, that level would need to grow to 90%
by 2050, with electric heat pumps considered the leading technology to convert fossil-fuel-based furnaces and boilers. As heat
pump technology proliferates, peak demand on New York’s grid is expected to shift from summer to winter.

FIGURE 13: SEASONAL HOURLY DEMAND PATTERNS (MW): 2022
25,000
24,000
23,000 Summer
22,000
21,000
20,000 Winter
19,000
18,000 Fall
17,000
16,000 Spring
15,000
14,000
13,000
0
3:00 6:00 9:00 3:00 6:00 9:00

MIDNIGHT AM AM AM NOON PM PM PM MIDNIGHT
FIGURE 14: PROJECTED VS. CURRENT SEASONAL LOADS (MW)
50,000
45,000
40,000 Winter Summer
2042/43 2043
35,000
30,000
25,000 Summer
20,000 2022
15,000 Winter
10,000 2022/23
5,000
0
3:00 6:00 9:00 3:00 6:00 9:00

New York ISO

FIGURE 15: ELECTRIC VEHICLE ENERGY & PEAK IMPACTS: 2023-2043
45,000 7,000
40,000
EV Annual 6,000
35,000 Energy GWh
EV Winter
Energy Usage - GWh
30,000 Peak MW 5,000
Peak Usage - MW
EV Summer
25,000 Peak MW 4,000
20,000
3,000
15,000
2,000
10,000
5,000 1,000
0 0
2043
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
Supply Trends
FIGURE 16: SUMMER & WINTER BEHIND-THE-METER SOLAR PERFORMANCE
26,000
Average Hourly
BTM Solar
24,000
22,000
20,000
Average Hourly
BTM Solar
Summer
Average Hourly
18,000 Summer Load (MW)
16,000
Winter
Average Hourly
14,000 Winter Load (MW)
12,000
3:00 6:00 9:00 3:00 6:00 9:00


FIGURE 17: WIND GENERATION & CURTAILMENT (GWh): 2004-2022
6,000 Curtailment Wind Generation
162
5,000
70
43 63 84
29 37 22 67
4,000
50
9
3,000 4
5
2,000
1,000
1,282
2,108
2,533
2,787
3,060
3,541
3,986
3,984
3,943
4,219
3,985
4,454
4,162
4,111
4,825
0 112 101
518
873
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
FIGURE 17 | Ongoing transmission upgrades contributed to greater curtailment of wind resources in 2022.
Much of the curtailment was concentrated in NYISO Zones D and E and impacted by ongoing construction work
on the Smart Path transmission project and the AC Upgrade from the Mohawk Valley to the lower Hudson Valley.
FIGURE 18: ENERGY STORAGE NAMEPLATE CAPACITY - BTM STORAGE ONLY (MW)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
FIGURE 18 | Behind-the-meter storage resources will play a significant role in meeting New York’s objective of 3,000 MW of
storage resources by 2030. By supplying customers directly, these resources can reduce demand levels on the grid during peak
hours. These reductions are offset by increased demand in other hours when storage is charging.
New York ISO

FIGURE 19: SUMMER 2023 INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) BY FUEL SOURCE - STATEWIDE, UPSTATE,
& DOWNSTATE NEW YORK
NYCA Summer Installed Capacity
12%
9%
2023 Capacity MW
Oil 1,995
Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 19,080 12%
Gas 4,592
Nuclear 3,305
Hydro 4,265
Wind 2,051
Solar 154
Other Renewables 330 4%
Hydro Pumped Storage 1,407
TOTAL 37,178
51% 6%
5% <1%
1%
Upstate Downstate
Summer Installed Capacity Summer Installed Capacity
(Zones A-E) (Zones F-K)
74%
24%
2023 Capacity MW
Nuclear 3,305 2023 Capacity MW
Hydro 3,892 29% Gas 3,175
Hydro Pumped Storage 240 Oil 1,196
Wind 2,051 Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 17,319
13% Solar 40 Hydro 373
Other Renewables 124 Hydro Pumped Storage 1,167
Gas 1,417 Solar 114
Oil 798 Other Renewables 205
Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 1,760
TOTAL 23,551
TOTAL 13,627
6% 2% 2%
5%
13% 15% 5%
13% <1%
1% <1% 1%

FIGURE 20: 2022 ENERGY PRODUCTION (GWh) BY FUEL SOURCE - STATEWIDE, UPSTATE, &
DOWNSTATE NEW YORK
NYCA Energy Production
21%
22%
2022 Production GWh

Nuclear 26,883
Hydro 27,354
Wind 4,825
9% Solar 110
3%Renewables
Other 2,368 4%
Oil 143
Dual
2%Fuel (Gas/Oil) 53,547 <1%
Gas 10,913 2%
TOTAL 126,144 <1%
42%
Upstate Energy Downstate Energy

(Zones A-E) (Zones F-K)
84%
41%
2022 Production GWh

Nuclear 26,883 2022 Production GWh
Hydro 25,443 Gas 6,856
Wind 4,825 Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 53,030
Solar 5 Oil 124
Other Renewables 909 Hydro 1,911
Gas 4,057 5% Solar 105
Oil 19 Other Renewables 1,459
Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 517
8% 3%
TOTAL 63,485
TOTAL 62,659
2%
43%
6% <1% <1%
1% 11%
<1%
1% <1%
New York ISO

FIGURE 21: HISTORICAL GENERATING CAPACITY FUEL MIX IN NEW YORK STATE: 2000-2023
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Gas & Dual Fuel Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro & Pumped Storage Other Renewables Solar Wind
A successful transition to a zero-emissions grid

means synchronizing the addition of clean energy
resources with the retirement of fossil-fuel
generators to protect reliability.

Glossary
The following glossary offers definitions and explanations
of phrases used in Power Trends 2023, as well as terms generally used
in discussions of electric power systems and energy policy.
Ancillary Services: Services that support the reliable Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP): A study undertaken by
operation of the power system, which can include voltage the NYISO that evaluates projects offered to meet New York’s
support, frequency regulation, operating reserves, and future electric power needs, as identified in the Reliability
blackstart capabilities. Needs Assessment (RNA). The CRP may trigger electric
Behind-the-Meter Generation: A generation unit that supplies utilities to pursue regulated solutions to meet reliability needs
electric energy to an end user onsite without connecting to if market-based solutions will not be available to supply
the bulk power system or local electric distribution facilities. needed resources. It is the second step in the
An example is a rooftop solar photovoltaic system that NYISO’s Reliability Planning Process.
primarily supplies electricity to the facility on which it is Curtailment: In the context of intermittent sources of
located. generation, refers to signals from the NYISO directing an
Bulk Power System: The transmission network over which intermittent resource to reduce its output. Sometimes
electricity flows from suppliers to local distribution systems referred to as economic curtailment, the NYISO’s signal is
that serve end-users. New York’s bulk power system includes based on the intermittent resources’ price offers in the energy
electricity-generating plants, high-voltage transmission lines, market, whereby transmission constraints induce prices
and interconnections with neighboring electric systems that make the continued operation of certain intermittent
located in the New York Control Area (NYCA). Also referred to resources uneconomic, prompting a reduction in output to
as “Bulk Electric system”, “grid”, or “power grid”. alleviate the transmission constraint.
Capability Period: Lasting six months, the Summer Capability Distributed Energy Resource (DER): A broad category
Period runs from May 1 through October 31. The Winter of resources that includes distributed generation, energy
Capability Period runs November 1 through April 30 of the storage technologies, combined heat, and power systems,
following year. A Capability Year begins May 1 and runs and microgrids. A DER is generally customer-sited to serve
through April 30 of the following year. the customer’s power needs, but may, in some instances, sell
excess energy production or ancillary services to the power
Capacity: Capacity is the maximum electric output that a system.
generator can produce. It is measured in megawatts (MW).
Electrification: Adopting technologies that support the
Class Year: A group of projects seeking to interconnect to transition of fossil-fuel-intensive sectors of the economy
the transmission system in similar timeframes, and which to electricity. Sometimes referred to as “beneficial
have reached similar milestones in their development efforts. electrification” due to its underlying goals of promoting
These projects are studied to assess the cumulative impact societal benefits through emissions reductions.
they may have on the system and determine the costs to
mitigate those impacts. Energy: Energy is the amount of electricity a generator
produces over a specific period of time. It is measured in
Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (CLCPA): megawatt-hours (MWh). For example, a generating unit with
A law that requires New York to reduce economy-wide a 1-megawatt capacity operating at full capacity for one hour
greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and no less will produce 1 megawatt-hour of electricity.
than 85% by 2050 from 1990 levels. The law establishes
technology-specific mandates for deploying clean energy Energy Storage Resources (ESRs): Energy storage resources
technologies as well as a Climate Action Council charged are devices used to capture energy produced at one time for
with developing a scoping plan of recommendations to meet use at a later time. ESRs include technologies like batteries
these targets. and pumped hydro storage.
New York ISO

Glossary
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC): The federal New York Control Area (NYCA): The area under the electrical
agency responsible for regulatory oversight of the NYISO’s control of the NYISO. It includes the entire state of New York,
operation of the bulk power system, wholesale electricity divided into 11 load zones.
markets, and planning and interconnection processes. The
NYISO’s tariffs and foundational agreements are overseen North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC): The
and approved by FERC. not-for-profit international regulatory authority whose mission
is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the
Gigawatt (GW): A unit of power or capacity equal to one
reliability and security of the grid. NERC’s jurisdiction includes
billion watts.
users, owners, and operators of the bulk power system.
Gigawatt-Hour (GWh): A gigawatt-hour is equal to one
gigawatt of energy produced or consumed continuously for Peak Load: The maximum power demand on the electric
one hour. grid measured in megawatts (MW). Peak load, also known
as peak demand, reflects the highest average hourly demand
Installed Capacity (ICAP): the capability of a qualifying experienced on the system.
generator or load facility to supply and/or reduce demand
when directed by the NYISO. Peakers: Peaking power plants, also known as peaker plants
or just “peakers,” are power plants that generally run only
Installed Reserve Margin (IRM): The level of capacity that
must be secured, above projected system peak demand, during periods of high demand — known as peak demand —
to maintain reliability after accounting for unplanned and for electricity.
scheduled outages as well as transmission capability Public Policy Transmission Planning: Part of the NYISO’s
limitations. The IRM requirement can be met through a Comprehensive System Planning Process. Public
combination of installed generation, import capabilities, and Policy Transmission Planning consists of two steps: (1)
demand response. The IRM is established by the New York
identification of transmission needs driven by Public Policy
State Reliability Council (NYSRC) and designed to maintain
Requirements that should be evaluated by the NYISO; and
specific resource adequacy criteria.
(2) requests for specific proposed transmission solutions to
Interconnection Queue: A queue of transmission and address those needs, and the evaluation of those specific
generation projects that have submitted an Interconnection solutions. The NYPSC identifies transmission needs driven
Request to the NYISO to be interconnected to the state’s by Public Policy Requirements and warranting evaluation,
electric system. Depending on the level of proposed and the NYISO requests and evaluates specific proposed
capacity, most projects must undergo three studies before transmission solutions to address such needs.
interconnecting to the grid: a Feasibility Study (unless parties
agree to forego it), a System Reliability Impact Study (SRIS), Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA): A report that evaluates
and a Facilities Study. resource adequacy and transmission system security over
years four through 10 of a 10-year planning horizon and
Intermittent Resource: An electric energy source whose
identifies future needs of the New York electricity grid. It is
output varies due to the fluctuating nature of its fuel source.
the first step in the NYISO’s reliability planning process.
Examples include solar energy which is dependent upon
sunlight intensity, or wind turbines where output is dependent Resource Adequacy: The ability of the electric system to
on wind speeds. supply electrical demand and energy requirements at all
Load: A consumer of energy, or the amount of energy times, taking into account scheduled and unscheduled
consumed. Load can also be referred to as demand. outages of system elements. A system is considered
adequate if the probability of having sufficient resources
Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR): A portion of the
statewide installed capacity that must be physically located to meet expected demand is greater than the minimum
within a locality to meet reliability standards. Locational standards to avoid a blackout.
requirements have been established for the New York City Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR): NYISO
(Zone J), Long Island (Zone K), and lower Hudson Valley
V1- PT2023 - 060123 - ACCUPRINT
quarterly process to examine reliability needs over a 5-year

(Zones G-J) capacity zones. period, with a focus on the first three years, including the
Megawatt (MW): A measure of electricity that is the impact of generator deactivations.
equivalent of 1 million watts. It is generally estimated that
Transmission Constraints: Limitations on the ability of a
one megawatt provides enough electricity to supply the
transmission facility to transfer electricity.
power needs of 800 to 1,000 homes.
Megawatt-Hour (MWh): A megawatt-hour is equal to one Transmission Security: The ability of the electric system to
megawatt of energy produced or consumed continuously for withstand disturbances, such as electric short-circuits or
one hour. unanticipated loss of system elements.

New York ISO
The reliability of the electric system

is an essential component for a vibrant economy,
and necessary to ensure the health
and safety for all New Yorkers.
New York TRENDS

42 || POWER
POWERISO
TRENDS2023
2023
About the ISO
The NYISO is subject to the oversight of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
and regulated in certain aspects by the New York State Public Service Commission. NYISO
operations are also overseen by electric system reliability regulators, including the North
American Electric Reliability Corporation, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, and the
New York State Reliability Council.
The NYISO is governed by an independent 10-member Board of Directors. The members
of the NYISO’s Board of Directors have backgrounds in electricity systems, finance,
information technology, communications, and public service. The NYISO is unaffiliated
with any market participant or government entity. The members of the Board, as well as all
employees, have no business, financial, operating, or other direct relationship to any market
participant. The NYISO does not own power plants or transmission lines.
The NYISO engages stakeholders in a robust and transparent shared governance process
that involves representation from a variety of interests, including transmission owners,
generator owners, public authorities and municipal utilities, large and small consumers,
and environmental advocates. Through open engagement and consensus building with
stakeholders, rules and procedures address our wholesale electricity markets, system
planning, and grid operations are developed.
New York ISO
Independent System Operator
For more information, visit:

www.nyiso.com/power-trends
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2023 Power Trends

Published annually by the NYISO, the Gold Book presents

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THE NEW YORK INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR, INC. (NYISO)

FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT:

© COPYRIGHT 2023 NEW YORK INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR, INC.

New York’s public policies are increasingly prioritizing

POWER TRENDS 2023 | 1 New Yor

Finally, thank you for reading.

Information For Policymakers

Planning Wholesale Our Independence

Visit Now: www.nyiso.com/policymakers Follow Us: YouTube, Twitter, and LinkedIn

New York’s Electricity Landscape.............................................................................10

Planning for the Future Grid....................................................................................14

Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR)................................................................... 16

Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA)............................................................................... 16

Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) ............................................................................. 17

System & Resource Outlook .................................................................................................... 17

Figure 3: Outlook Report Renewable Generation Pockets ................................................... 17

Public Policy Transmission Planning ........................................................................................ 18

Figure 4: New Transmission Projects in New York State ..................................................... 19

How NYISO’s Wholesale Electricity Markets Work ....................................................................... 24

Figure 6: Average Annual Natural Gas & Wholesale

POWER TRENDS 2023 | 3 New Yor

Figure 8: Statewide Resource Availability: Summer 2023................................................... 26

Figure 9: Historic Average Capacity Spot Auction Clearing Prices: 2018-2022...................... 27

Enhancing Wholesale Electricity Market Design.......................................................................... 28

Accreditation of Capacity Resources ........................................................................................ 28

Enhancing Market Rules for Supply Reserves............................................................................. 29

What to Expect: Next Steps.....................................................................................30

Figure 13: Seasonal Hourly Demand Patterns (MW): 2022 ................................................. 34

Figure 14: Projected vs. Current Seasonal Loads (MW)...................................................... 34

Supply Trends ......................................................................................................35

Figure 17: Wind Generation & Curtailment (GWh): 2004-2022 ............................................ 36

Figure 19: Summer 2023 Installed Capacity (MW) by Fuel Source –

Figure 20: 2022 Energy Production (GWh) by Fuel Source –

Summary > Public Policies are driving rapid

> Reliability margins are shrinking.

The NYISO is committed to a carefully planned, balanced approach

POWER TRENDS 2023 | 5 New Yor

POWER TRENDS 2023 | 7 New Yor

Managing the grid reliably through this transition

be resolved by new supply coming into service, construction

Regulatory & Reliability Shared Governance Independence

POWER TRENDS 2023 | 9 New Yor

Each second, every day, the NYISO operates

New York TRENDS

State Energy Policy Mandates

2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

6,000 MW 185 Trillion 10,000 MW 70% 3,000 MW 9,000 MW 100% 85%

In addition to establishing technology and emissions

POWER TRENDS 2023 | 11 New Yor

arise from their deactivation. On a quarterly basis, the NYISO and

Wholesale needs arise from generator deactivations, load growth, changes

New York ISO

In this manner, wholesale competitive markets provide a structure

POWER TRENDS 2023 | 13 New Yor

The NYISO's planning processes serve the mission

New York TRENDS