Imad A. Moosa - Fintech - A Revolution or A Transitory Hype - Edward Elgar Publishing (2022)
Imad A. Moosa - Fintech - A Revolution or A Transitory Hype - Edward Elgar Publishing (2022)
Imad A. Moosa - Fintech - A Revolution or A Transitory Hype - Edward Elgar Publishing (2022)
Imad A. Moosa
Professor of Economics, Kuwait University, Kuwait
Published by
Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
The Lypiatts
15 Lansdown Road
Cheltenham
Glos GL50 2JA
UK
EEP BoX
Contents
List of figuresvi
List of tablesviii
Prefaceix
Abbreviations and acronymsxi
4 The technology 55
References210
Index227
v
Figures
vi
Figures vii
4.1 AI applications 57
viii
Preface
The word “fintech” (short for “financial technology”) has become a house-
hold term, and not just a word that is used in academic journals. The popular
media often publish stories about fintech and how emerging small firms
utilise state-of-the-art technology to change the world of financial services.
However, the word “fintech” means more than one thing. In one sense it refers
to technology per se, the technology used by financial institutions to provide
financial services. In this sense, fintech is not a new phenomenon but rather
a phenomenon that goes back to the 19th century or even earlier, which means
that it is better to use the full expression “financial technology”. However,
the word is used more appropriately to refer to the industry, the collection of
financial institutions using technology to provide financial services. In this
broad sense, the industry includes already established financial institutions and
the emerging firms that compete with them. In a narrow sense, “fintech” refers
to emerging firms that compete with traditional financial institutions and aim
to disrupt them by providing better-quality and cheaper financial services. The
emergence of these firms creates regulatory problems, as they bring with them
costs and benefits.
This book is mainly about the fintech industry in a narrow sense. Confusion
arises because (as we are going to see in Chapter 1) fintech is defined in so
many ways that any definition may refer to the technology, the industry in
a broad sense or the industry in a narrow sense. In Chapter 2, we look at
the historical evolution of the technology used in the provision of financial
services, which has led to the emergence in the 21st century of the fintech
industry in a narrow sense. The question of whether fintech is an evolution
or a revolution is also examined. In Chapter 3, we look at the structure of the
fintech industry in both a broad and a narrow sense. The types of technology
used by financial institutions are examined in Chapter 4, where it is argued
that the term “financial technology” may be flawed because the same types
of technology are used in other sectors of the economy. It is even argued that
these technologies contribute more to human welfare when used in sectors
other than finance where the contribution is simply some sort of extravaganza.
Chapters 5, 8, 9 and 10 are about the fintech industry in a narrow sense, as the
discussion leads to the inevitable conclusion that fintech is a transitory hype.
In some cases, fintech is a source of scam—nothing exemplifies this better
than the hype and scam of cryptocurrencies, which is the subject of Chapter
ix
x Fintech
7. In Chapter 6, we deal with the war on cash (in which fintechs take part),
arguing that it is a part of an elaborate conspiracy against ordinary people. This
conspiracy, it is argued, has two other components: ultra-low/negative interest
rates and the bail-in legislation.
Writing this book would not have been possible without the help and
encouragement I received from family, friends and colleagues. My utmost
gratitude must go to my wife, Afaf, who bore most of the opportunity cost of
writing this book and helped with the drawing of diagrams. I would also like
to thank my colleagues and friends, including John Vaz, Kelly Burns, Vikash
Ramiah, Liam Lenten, Brien McDonald and Nirav Parikh.
In preparing the manuscript, I benefited from the exchange of ideas with
members of the Table 14 Discussion Group, and for this reason I would like to
thank Bob Parsons, Greg O’Brien, Greg Bailey, Bill Breen, Paul Rule, Peter
Murphy, Bob Brownlee, Jim Reiss and Tony Pagliaro. My thanks also go to
friends and former colleagues who live far away but provide help via means of
telecommunication, including Kevin Dowd (whom I owe big intellectual debt),
Razzaque Bhatti, Ron Ripple, Bob Sedgwick, Sean Holly, Dan Hemmings, Ian
Baxter, Basil Al-Nakeeb, Nabeel Al-Loughani, Khalid Al-Saad and Mike
Dempsey. Last, but not least, I would like to thank Alex Pettifer, Editorial
Director at Edward Elgar Publishing, who encouraged me to write this book.
Naturally, I am the only one responsible for any errors and omissions that
may be found in this book. It is dedicated to my daughter Nisreen, my son
Danny, my grandson Ryan and my granddaughter Ivy.
Imad A. Moosa
December, 2021
Abbreviations and acronyms
ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation
ADBI Asian Development Bank Institute
AGI Artificial general intelligence
AI Artificial intelligence
AIG American International Group
AML Anti-money laundering
ANI Artificial narrow intelligence
ANN Artificial neural network
API Application programming interface
ASI Artificial superintelligence
ASIC Australian Securities and Investments Commission
ATM Automated teller machine
B2B Business-to-business
B2C Business-to-consumer
B2G Business-to-government
BaFin Federal Financial Supervisory Authority
BBC British Broadcasting Corporation
BCBS Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
BFA Bali Fintech Agenda
BIS Bank for International Settlements
BTCA Better Than Cash Alliance
C2C Consumer-to-consumer
CBS Columbia Broadcasting System
CCTV Closed-circuit television
CD Certificate of deposit
CD Compact disc
CDO Collateralised debt obligation
xi
xii Fintech
G2P Government-to-people
GDP Gross domestic product
GFC Global Financial Crisis
GPS Global Positioning System
HKMA Hong Kong Monetary Authority
IaaS Infrastructure as a service
IBM International Business Machines
ICA International Currency Association
ICO Initial coin offering
IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
IMF International Monetary Fund
IOSCO International Organisation of Securities Commissions
IoT Internet of Things
IRS Internal Revenue Service
IT Information Technology
KYC Know Your Customer
LIBOR London Inter-Bank Offered Rate
LMI Lenders Mortgage Insurance
LSE London School of Economics
MAS Monetary Authority of Singapore
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ML Machine learning
MPIfG Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung
NASDAQ National Association of Securities Dealers Automated
Quotations
NBER National Bureau of Economic Research
NLP Natural language processing
NLU Natural language understanding
NSA National Security Agency
NYU New York University
OCC Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OTC Over-the-counter
xiv Fintech
P2P Peer-to-peer
PaaS Platform as a service
PC Personal computer
PIMCO Pacific Investment Management Company
PIN Personal identification number
POS Point-of-sales system
PPP Paycheck Protection Program
PVA Private Vaults Australia
R&D Research and development
SaaS Software as a service
SBA Small Business Administration
SEACEN South East Asian Central Banks
SEC Securities and Exchange Commission
SIFI Systemically important financial institution
SME Small and medium-sized enterprise
SMS Short Message Service
SPNB Special purpose national bank
SSRN Social Science Research Network
SWIFT Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial
Telecommunications
TI Texas Instruments
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNCDF United Nations Capital Development Fund
US United States
USAID United States Agency for International Development
VAT Value Added Tax
WEF World Economic Forum
WMD Weapon of mass destruction
ZIP Zone Improvement Plan
1. Fintech: what is in a definition?
The current system of transferring funds from one country to another is slow,
inconvenient, costly and ambiguous. Consider the process of transferring
$100 from one bank in a rural town in country A (Rural Bank A) to a bank in
a rural town in country B (Rural Bank B). The process starts with the transfer
of $100 from Rural Bank A to a large urban bank in the same country (Urban
Bank A). The transaction is settled via the central bank of country A (Central
Bank A), which debits the account of Rural Bank A and credits the account of
Urban Bank A. Urban Bank A transfers the money to an urban bank in Country
B (Urban Bank B), with which it has a corresponding banking relationship.
With the transfer of funds from Urban Bank B to Rural Bank B, the account
of Urban Bank B with Central Bank B is debited while the account of Rural
Bank B with Central Bank B is credited. Eventually, the beneficiary, who has
an account with Rural Bank B, receives $100 when Rural Bank B credits the
account of the beneficiary. The process is rather cumbersome and expensive
because it involves fees and commissions.
The current international payment system relies on a central “settlement
institution”, which is typically a central bank or a monetary authority of some
sort. The settlement institution holds deposits from each bank that is a party to
a transaction involving the transfer of funds from one bank to another for the
purpose of settling obligations between banks. The process works by adjusting
the balances of the transacting parties, which means that the settlement insti-
tution provides the key mechanism required for the purpose of transferring
funds. Any payment system that depends on a central settlement institution
involves risks and inefficiencies.
Cross-border payments are more complicated to process and involve more
risks than domestic payments in the absence of a global central settlement
institution that holds the accounts of banks across national borders. Instead
of a central settlement institution, cross-border payment systems rely on an
interbank correspondent-banking system. The system involves contractual
arrangements under which a bank located in one country (a correspondent)
holds domestic currency-denominated deposits owned by a foreign bank. The
problem is that most cross-border payments involve two banks that do not have
1
2 Fintech
positive changes to the protocol and because credit and liquidity risks can
only be controlled through the system’s rules and procedures that determine
rights and obligations. There is more to fintech than Ripple and the underlying
technology.
1.2 TERMINOLOGY
While technology has always been an integral part of the financial services
sector, the term “fintech” has only become widely used in the past few years.
It has not been a common expression or a household name for a long time,
as it was added to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary in 2018. However, the
term’s origin can be traced back to the early 1990s with the establishment of
the “Financial Services Technology Consortium” by Citicorp (the predecessor
to Citigroup) to facilitate technological co-operation, in an attempt to alter the
perception of being “out of touch with market preferences” (Hochstein, 2015a,
2015b). This view is challenged by Schueffel (2016), who argues that the term
was used as early as 1972, citing Abraham Leon Bettinger, the vice president
of Manufacturers Hanover Trust, who described fintech as “an acronym which
stands for financial technology, combining bank expertise with modern man-
agement science techniques and the computer” (Bettinger, 1972). Trying to be
diplomatic, Schueffel goes on to suggest that “it still may well be the case that
the imitators of the Fintech project at Citibank in the beginning of 1990s did
not know of Bettinger’s research and used the identical term for their undertak-
ing by coincidence”. However, he points out that “neither academia nor prac-
tice can unambiguously be identified as the birthplace of the term Fintech”.
An indication of the growth of awareness of fintech is the frequency of
Google search where figures are available on Google Trends (https://trends
.google.com/). Frequency is measured as an index taking the maximum value
of 100 during a time period that can be specified in advance. For the purpose
of comparison, data were collected on the frequency of Google search for
“fintech”, “financial technology”, “digital finance” and “digital financial ser-
vices” over the period May 2005 to May 2021. The data are plotted in Figure
1.1, showing exponential growth in the search for “fintech” until November
2019. This kind of explosive growth cannot be seen in the search for “financial
technology”, even though they are the same. As a matter of fact, the search for
“financial technology” has been declining, most likely because people and the
media prefer the abbreviation over the full expression. Another explanation is
that “fintech” may refer not to the technology as such but to a new industry
consisting of new firms using technology to provide financial services. The
search for “digital finance” and “digital financial services” has also been
growing but not at the same pace as the search for “fintech”. In Figure 1.2,
we observe the growth of Google search for the four items using annual data.
4 Fintech
Table 1.1 shows the years in which Google search for the four terms reached
its peak and trough. The peak of Google search for “financial technology” was
reached in 2006, compared with 2019 for “fintech”.
Since around 2010, numerous fintech companies (or fintechs) have been
established with the objective of introducing technology (through apps that
can be installed on mobile devices) to conduct financial operations involving
customers and providers of financial services. The number and variety of new
companies established for this purpose have grown remarkably, both in scale
and scope, and this is why fintech may be defined to cover more than finance.
For example, Leong and Sung (2018) define fintech as “a cross-disciplinary
subject that combines Finance, Technology Management and Innovation
Management”. They argue that this definition “provides audiences better
understanding on what is FinTech and its potential” when presented to “dif-
ferent audiences with different backgrounds, such as students and business
professionals”. This is perhaps the only definition that describes fintech as
“multidisciplinary”, while the use of the terms “technology management”
and “innovation management” does not add anything to the understanding
6 Fintech
ATM, where the ATM could be located 10,000 miles from the bank branch of
the customer. Defining fintech boils down to the formidable task of combining
tens of finance-related activities in one definition.
We have already seen that the term “fintech” was added to the
Merriam-Webster Dictionary in 2018, where it is defined as “products and
companies that employ newly developed digital and online technologies in
the banking and financial services industries”. It has also made it into other
dictionaries. In the Oxford Dictionary, it is defined as “computer programs and
other technology used to support or enable banking and financial services”. In
Dictionary.com, it is defined in two different ways. The first is that it repre-
sents “digital technological innovations utilized by customers or institutions in
the financial services industry”. The second is that it is a “company that uses or
develops such technologies”. In the Collins Dictionary, we find the following
definition: “digital technology used to support banking and financial services”.
We can see that the definition may refer to technology, products or companies
that are related: the fintech industry consists of companies that use specific
technology to come up with products that facilitate financial transactions.
A Google search for “definition of fintech” produces tens of definitions that
refer to technology, industry, companies and ideas. By far, most of the defi-
nitions are put in terms of technology, as displayed in Table 1.2, which is not
exhaustive. One of the definitions under “Technology” contains two important
words that appear frequently in the literature on fintech “start-up” and “dis-
ruption”, referring to emerging companies disrupting the activity of existing
financial institutions. This definition, however, gives the wrong impression that
financial technology is used by new technologically based companies when in
fact existing financial institutions also use technology (this is an issue that will
be dealt with in detail later). Another definition has the words “streamline”
and “digitise” in addition to “disrupt” to imply that new fintech companies do
more than disrupting the status quo. Yet another definition refers to “financial
literacy” to highlight the connection with fintech. The industry-based defini-
tions describe fintech as an “economic industry”, “emerging industry” and a
“new financial industry”. One definition under “Companies” describes fintech
companies as enablers, enhancers and disruptors of financial services. We will
find out as we progress how fintech companies disrupt, streamline, digitise,
enable and enhance the provision of financial services.
A related concept is that of “alternative finance”, which refers to the
financial products and services provided by non-mainstream firms (where
mainstream firms are banks and insurance companies). However, an alter-
native finance business may also be a fintech business. For example, while
peer-to-peer lending is an alternative finance business (because it is not pro-
vided by traditional financial institutions) it is also a fintech business because
an electronic platform is central for borrowers to obtain loans directly from
What is in a definition? 9
Technology
• Computer programs and other technology used to support or enable banking and financial services.
• The technology and innovation that aims to compete with traditional financial methods in the delivery of
financial services.
• New tech that seeks to improve and automate the delivery and use of financial services.
• Technology that is utilised to help companies, business owners and consumers better manage their
financial operations, processes and lives by utilising specialised software and algorithms that are used on
computers and, increasingly, smartphones.
• The integration of technology into offerings by financial services companies in order to improve their use
and delivery to consumers.
• The technology and innovation that aims to compete with traditional financial methods in the delivery of
financial services.
• The technology start-up scene that is disrupting sectors such as mobile payments, money transfers, loans,
fundraising and even asset management.
• The application of new technological advancements to products and services in the financial sector.
• A term used to describe any technology that delivers financial services through software, such as online
banking, mobile payment apps or even cryptocurrency.
• A broad category that encompasses many different technologies, but the primary objectives are to change
the way consumers and businesses access their finances and compete with traditional financial services.
• A catch-all term for any technology that is used to augment, streamline, digitise or disrupt traditional
financial services.
• A general comprehensive term for financial technologies, many of which are rapidly changing the finan-
cial industry.
• Collaboration between finance and technology for better products and efficient processes.
• The technology and innovation that aims to compete with traditional financial methods in the delivery of
financial services.
• Technologies as diverse as cryptocurrency tools, financial transaction platforms and industry-specific
middleware programs.
• Technological innovations that relate to concepts such as financial literacy and education, stock invest-
ment, cyber security, blockchain technology, retail banking, and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ripple,
among other innovations.
• Fintech refers to innovative digital technology solutions that aim to optimise financial services and
banking.
• Technology-enabled innovation in financial services that could result in new business models, applica-
tions, processes or products with an associated material effect on the provision of financial services.
• The technology and innovation intended to compete with traditional financial methods in the delivery of
financial services.
• The use of technology in finance to disrupt traditional business models in financial markets as well as
bringing about new and uncharted risk territories.
10 Fintech
• New and innovative financial services developed by utilising recent advances in information and telecom-
munication technology.
• Technology applied to financial services, which has a significant impact on our daily lives, from facil-
itating payments for goods and services to providing the infrastructure essential to the operation of the
world’s financial institutions.
• Fintech is the term used to describe any technology that delivers financial services through software, such
as online banking, mobile payment apps or even cryptocurrency.
• Fintech is a broad category that encompasses many different technologies, but the primary objectives are
to change the way consumers and businesses access their finances and compete with traditional financial
services.
Industry
• An economic industry composed of companies that use technology to make financial services more
efficient.
• An emerging industry that uses technology to improve activities in finance.
• A new financial industry that applies technology to improve financial activities.
• A service sector that uses mobile-centred information technology to enhance the efficiency of the finan-
cial system.
• Industrial changes forged from the convergence of financial services and IT.
• The application of technology in the financial sector.
• Fintech brings all together: the new business models, processes, products, services and applications that
emerge around the financial services industry and are digitally available for the client in a more efficient
way.
Companies
• Companies that combine innovative business models and technology to enable, enhance and disrupt
financial services.
• Companies are businesses that leverage new technology to create new and better financial services for
both consumers and businesses.
• An umbrella term describing several different companies, products and services.
• A term used to describe companies that use artificial intelligence, data science and blockchain technology
to secure and enhance finances.
• Companies that specialise in providing the services needed to conduct financial transactions through
technology.
• A wide range of companies using software to provide financial services.
• New businesses that aim to challenge existing financial institutions by using technology to deliver value
to the customer in an alternative way.
Ideas
• Any innovative ideas that improve financial service processes by proposing technology solutions accord-
ing to different business situations, while the ideas could also lead to new business models or even new
businesses.
• Ideas that provide solutions for customers unable to get loans from a traditional bank and consumers to
shop online without using a credit card.
What is in a definition? 11
Source Definition/Description
The Independent This is a new and emerging branch of Britain’s financial services industry.
The Telegraph The area where technology and finance intersect, which ought to be an
industry in which Britain excels.
The Guardian The application of technology in financial services to create disruptive
business models and inclusive products.
The Banker The R&D function of financial services in the digital age. It is less to
do with technology, more to do with business model reinvention and
customer-centric design.
The Boston Globe Companies seizing a moment when the needs of the financial industry and
capabilities of technology are coming together, aiming to take advantage
of modern computing speeds, troves of data, and the ubiquity of mobile
devices.
The Economist A slew of start-ups that reckon they can do better and disrupt financial
services.
Forbes Fintech firms are pioneering a distinctive online and digital-based approach
that promises to greatly enhance small businesses access and efficiency to
funding for growth.
The Times Fintechs are broadening access to a range of services that they claim can
help us manage our spending, save more money, and make investments in
our long-term financial security.
Süddeutsche Zeitung An armada of start-ups that want to compete with traditional banks.
The Globe and Mail Fintechs are targeting traditional business models and the banks, investment
companies, and insurance distribution networks upon which they are built.
Business Week Fintech is one of the growth areas in an otherwise shrinking industry.
Tagesanzeiger Fintech is not only a threat to traditional banking business – it is also
a chance, not only in business with end customers.
Neue Zürcher Zeitung The digitalisation of financial services.
The Daily Telegraph Technology that permits new ways of paying for things, money transfers,
loans, fundraising and so on.
Süddeutsche Zeitung Fintechs are digital bank start-ups.
Neue Zürcher Zeitung New digital business models in financial sector.
Süddeutsche Zeitung Fintechs are young distinguished financial start-ups.
Financial Times Fintech, the hope that technology will nurture new ways of doing finance, is
a phenomenon of the moment.
The Times Pretty much anything involving finance and technology.
The Guardian A blend of financial services and digital technology that aims to
revolutionise high-street banking for customers and strip out costs for banks.
What is in a definition? 13
tutions and provide direct products and services to end users, often through
online and mobile channels”. Therefore, the WEF sees fintech both as the use
of technology and as the industry that provides financial services by using
technology.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has opted to use
the Financial Stability Board (FSB)’s working definition: “technologically
enabled financial innovation that could result in new business models, appli-
cations, processes, or products with an associated material effect on financial
markets and institutions and the provision of financial services” (BCBS,
2018). The adoption of this definition is justified on the grounds that it is useful
in the light of the current fluidity of fintech developments. The BCBS notes
that the term “fintech” is used to describe a wide array of innovations, both by
incumbent banks and entrants, be they start-ups or larger technology firms.
Unlike the definition of the WEF, this definition implies that fintech is the use
of technology rather than the industry.
In a survey of supervisory agencies conducted by the BCBS, most of those
agencies have not come up with their own definitions of fintech, on the grounds
that other definitions already exist or that it would be premature to define
a field narrowly while it is evolving rapidly. However, it is noted that the
definitions adopted by supervisory agencies have two characteristics. The first
characteristic is that fintech pertains to an innovative service, a business model
(which can be provided by an incumbent bank or a non-financial company) or
a new-technology start-up in the finance industry. The second characteristic is
that the definitions make clear distinctions between innovation and disruption,
in the sense that innovation fits within existing regulatory frameworks whereas
disruption requires the development of new rules. The BCBS also identifies
innovative fintech services, which are divided into “sectoral innovations”
(credit, payments, investment) and “market support services” (data applica-
tions, distributed ledger, etc.).
The former managing director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, defines
fintech as follows: “Financial technology, or fintech—a term that encompasses
products, developers and operators of alternative financial systems—is chal-
lenging traditional business models” (Lagarde, 2017). The formal definition
adopted by the IMF is spelt out by Taylor et al. (2019) as follows: fintech is
“the advances in technology that have the potential to transform the provision
of financial services spurring the development of new business models, appli-
cations, processes, and products”. This is actually the definition used in the
IMF–World Bank’s Bali Fintech Agenda (BFA), which was launched in 2018
as a framework of high-level issues that countries should consider in their own
domestic fintech policy discussions (see, for example, IMF, 2018).
14 Fintech
Reference to % Examples
Novel, innovative and new 31.4 • Fintech is a new financial industry that applies technology to
technology improve financial activities.
• Fintech designates a currently novel, innovative and emerg-
ing field that attracts attention from the publicity.
• New and innovative financial services developed by utilising
recent advances in information and telecommunications
technology.
Improved performance and 21.4 • A broad category that encompasses many different tech-
efficiency for the benefit of nologies, but the primary objectives are to change the way
customers consumers and businesses access their finances and compete
with traditional financial services.
• Collaboration between finance and technology for better
products and efficient processes.
Risk and regulation 2.9 • Fintech refers to non- or not fully regulated ventures whose
goal is to develop novel, technology-enabled financial ser-
vices with a value-added design that will transform current
financial practices.
• The use of technology in finance to disrupt traditional busi-
ness models in financial markets as well as bringing about
new and uncharted risk territories.
Traditional versus new, 44.3 • The technology and innovation that aims to compete with
emerging business models traditional financial methods in the delivery of financial
and start-ups, disruption and services.
transformation • The technology start-up scene that is disrupting sectors such
as mobile payments, money transfers, loans, fundraising and
even asset management.
• An armada of start-ups that want to compete with traditional
banks.
• A catch-all term for any technology that is used to augment,
streamline, digitise or disrupt traditional financial services.
None of the above 21.4 • The application of technology to finance.
• Computer programs and other technology used to support or
enable banking and financial services.
• Technologies as diverse as cryptocurrency tools, financial
transaction platforms and industry-specific middleware
programs.
• Industrial changes forged from the convergence of financial
services and IT.
• Fintech is one of the growth areas in an otherwise shrinking
industry.
16 Fintech
2.1 AN OVERVIEW
Several accounts have been suggested for the evolution of fintech, in the broad
sense of using technology in the provision of financial services. These accounts
differ with respect to dates, milestones and driving forces. For example, some
accounts trace fintech back to the use of computer technology to facilitate the
back office operations of banks and trading firms. Other accounts trace the use
of technology in the provision of financial services back to the 1950s, when
the finance industry introduced credit cards, data analysis and new forms of
risk assessment. The introduction of credit cards in the 1950s was followed
by several technological innovations, including ATMs, electronic trading
floors and algorithmic trading. Some accounts go back to the 1860s, when
signature-verifying technologies were used by banks for the first time.
However, some observers think that the fintech revolution started in the 21st
century, particularly since the end of its first decade, as the concept of fintech
became broader in its reach and deeper in its scope. Despite its proclaimed
disruptive nature, fintech has not made traditional financial firms obsolete,
perhaps because a large segment of the population still prefer to conduct
financial transactions by talking to real human beings. However, a widespread
belief is that fintech is revolutionising the global financial landscape by forcing
traditional financial institutions to review their business models and come up
with effective, low-cost, customer-centric solutions.
Before the era of the internet, traditional financial institutions thrived on
what may be called “traditional fintech”. In the late 1990s and early 2000s,
online fintech companies, such as PayPal, entered the market but did not
threaten traditional financial institutions seriously until the advent of the global
financial crisis. As a result of the crisis, trust in traditional banking was under-
mined (even eroded) while millennials welcomed free online financial ser-
vices. Tikam (2016) considers millennials as much a driving force of fintech
as talented tech-savvy entrepreneurs, the global financial crisis, technological
innovation and appropriate regulation. The millennials love technology and
they are addicted to their phones at a stage in life where they need financial ser-
18
The evolution and revolution of fintech 19
The Covid-19 pandemic has provided a boost to the fintech industry as lock-
downs and social distancing forced people to resort to digital financial services
and e-commerce. In Table 2.1 we can see the growth rates of fintech start-ups
in 2020 compared with 2019 according to data obtained from Statista. In 2019
growth was anaemic, even negative as in the case of the Asia Pacific region.
In 2020, on the other hand, growth was spectacular. According to the DeVere
Group (2021) the use of fintech apps increased more than 61% between the
start of the pandemic and April 2021. One can only wonder what the situation
would have been if life had continued without the complications brought about
by the pandemic.
Several reasons can be suggested as to why the pandemic provided a boost
for the adoption of fintech. The pandemic has led to an increase in the use of
digital banking that is driven by the ease of use and limited access to traditional
banking services due to restrictions on movements and the shift to working
from home. Furthermore, the pandemic has led to an increase in the demand
for essential goods and e-commerce activities, as consumers strived to mini-
mise in-person contact. In response to the price increases caused by disruptions
in supply chains, consumers might have resorted to hoarding and stockpiling
essential goods, using digital payments for acquiring these goods. To cope
with the situation, regulators supported the shift to digital channels by waiving
fees on digital payments temporarily, increasing limits for digital transfers and
allowing for electronic know-your-customer (e-KYC) instead of in-person
identity verification.
Agur et al. (2020) point out that digital financial services allow for social
distancing and that the services provided by fintech take on added value in
the response to the Covid-19 crisis. These services include connecting entre-
preneurs with banks, employees, suppliers and new markets, and facilitating
peer-to-peer transactions. However, they warn that “attempting to quickly
scale up digital financial services in the short timeframe during which a crisis
response needs to be formulated is not merely challenging but potentially also
risky”. Specifically, they warn of the risks to stability and integrity, arguing
that operational constraints, cyber-attacks, fraud, money laundering, data
and privacy may worsen if the use of digital financial services is scaled up in
response to a crisis. These issues pertain to regulation as well as the question
of costs versus benefits, both of which will be dealt with in detail in other
The evolution and revolution of fintech 21
chapters. For the time being, it suffices to say that scaling up digital financial
services during a crisis involves greater risk if proper safeguards and regula-
tions are not in place.
In response to the financial difficulties created by the pandemic, the US gov-
ernment introduced the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which was par-
tially implemented by using fintech. Erel and Liebersohn (2020) suggest that
fintech was used disproportionately in ZIP codes with fewer bank branches,
lower incomes and a larger minority share of the population, and also in indus-
tries with little ex ante small-business lending. They also found that the role
of fintech in PPP provision is greater in counties where the economic effects
of the pandemic were more severe. Their estimates show that more PPP pro-
vision by traditional banks causes a statistically significant but economically
small substitution away from fintech, implying that fintech mostly expands the
overall supply of financial services, rather than redistributing it.
Even after life returns to “normal”, it is likely that some changes in behaviour
as a result of the pandemic will persist, including the ways in which consumers
do banking, pay bills and conduct transactions. Walden and Foreman (2020)
identify “five pandemic-sparked fintech trends worth keeping an eye on”.
The first is that the adoption of fintech among older populations has gone up.
Temporary closures or reduced hours of bank branches forced some customers
to accept the status quo and download the apps of their financial institutions.
Walden and Foreman report that, in April 2020, Fidelity National Information
Services saw a 200% increase in new mobile banking registrations, while
mobile banking traffic went up 85%. An April 2020 survey revealed that
people over 60 are using technology more frequently to pay bills online, as
77% of the respondents said that they had recently conducted a financial trans-
action online. Another study, conducted by the National Retail Federation,
reported that, as a result of the pandemic, nearly half (45%) of baby boomers
are shopping online more frequently (Gaskin, 2020).
The second trend identified by Walden and Foreman (2020) is that consumer
perceptions of online banking are shifting. They refer to a survey conducted in
June 2020, revealing that 44% of those in the 18–34 years age range enrolled
in online or mobile banking for the first time during the Covid-19 crisis.
They refer to another study revealing that a large segment of the participants
(69%) said that fintech was a “financial lifeline” during the pandemic. The
22 Fintech
Just like the issue of definition, a proposition that is often put forward is that
fintech is still poorly understood and so is the evolution of the sector. This,
however, seems to be an unnecessary dramatisation of the state of affairs.
Technology has been adopted in every other sector of the economy because it
is conducive to rising productivity and profitability. Furthermore, technology
has been adopted by the financial sector since the 19th century, but this adop-
tion has accelerated since the beginning of the internet age. As a matter of fact,
and as Khan (2018) argues, finance and technology have been intertwined ever
since the start of the modern society.
Figure 2.1 displays the milestones of the evolution of fintech (both as an indus-
try and the application of technology to finance) from the 1830s to the 1990s.
The starting point is the invention of the telegraph in the 1830s, cumulating in
the 1990s with the worldwide web. We can see that most of the innovations
cannot be claimed exclusively by the finance industry, with some exceptions
24 Fintech
such as the ATM, SWIFT and travellers cheques. In Figure 2.2 we can see the
evolution milestones over the period 2000–2020, including the establishment
of some fintech companies (such as Robinhood, Square and Venmo) and
apps (such as Apple Pay). Again, some of the innovations (such as the mobile
phone) cannot be claimed exclusively by the finance industry.
The terms “evolution” and “revolution” refer to change, with a distinctive dif-
ference: evolution is a slow and gradual change whereas revolution is a sudden,
dramatic and complete change. Revolution is a rapid triumph of new ideas and
breaking away from old concepts. Evolution is the process of small frequent
changes intended to improve and adapt the environment. Revolution replaces
old ideas with new promising unproven ideas, whereas evolution improves
existing working ideas in a gradual and continuous manner. Evolution involves
a quantitative change whereas revolution involves a qualitative change.
One example of revolution is the move from feudalism to capitalism with
the advent of the industrial revolution, but since then capitalism has been
evolving (for example, positive changes with respect to child labour and
working conditions). The industrial revolution was a revolution because it
involved a change from an agrarian and handicraft economy to an economy
dominated by machine manufacturing. The French Revolution was a rev-
olution because it involved a fundamental political and societal change in
France—it was inspired by aspiration for “liberté, égalité, fraternité” (liberty,
equality, fraternity).
In what way and sense is fintech a revolution? The expression “fintech
revolution” appears in the media quite often, but there is no agreement on what
it means and when the revolution started. If fintech is traced back to the inven-
tion of the telegraph in the 1830s, the process of adopting technology by the
financial services industry has been evolutionary, even though the production
The evolution and revolution of fintech 29
The sectoral innovations include items such as mobile banks, mobile wallets,
digital currencies and robo-advice. The innovative market support services
include data applications, distributed ledger technology and cloud comput-
ing. These innovations and innovative services will be described in detail in
Chapter 4, but for the time being it suffices to note that one has to wonder why
any of these inventions are better (in terms of contributing to human welfare)
than the ATM. In what way are they more revolutionary than the telegraph,
telex and fax? It is not quite clear why telecommunication inventions should be
associated with the finance industry only. Why is it that artificial intelligence
30 Fintech
Another view is that fintech is a revolution in the sense that it is a revolt of new
fintech start-ups against existing traditional financial institutions. For example,
Zavolokina et al. (2016) argue that “FinTech brings new opportunities to give
power to people, for example, by allowing transparency, reducing costs or
cutting middlemen and – what is even more important – to make information
accessible.” Fintech, they suggest, “affects banks which are cautious of being
disrupted and, therefore, try to catch on the FinTech-train, observing all
these thousands of start-ups which create alternatives to traditional banking
services”. Schueffel (2016) describes fintech as the “genie out of the bottle”.
However, Maule (2016) argues that, “rather than a staunch rival to current
financial services companies, in reality FinTech just represents a natural evo-
lution of the sector”. It is an evolutionary process in the sense that the financial
services industry has never been static and, like every industry, it is evolving
constantly. This sounds like a more realistic view than the views expressed by
fintech enthusiasts to glorify what is essentially nothing new.
The evolution and revolution of fintech 31
The question whether fintech means revolution or evolution for the banking
sector is raised by Card (2016), who wonders whether fintechs are helping
banks evolve or planning a revolution. He quotes Rich Wagner, the CEO and
founder of Advanced Payment Solutions, saying that “the death of banks will
take a very long time because the finance directors of Fortune 500 and corpo-
rate businesses will stick with retail banks for many years to come”. However,
one line of business that is openly disrupted is international money transfers.
Here, a number of big names have emerged, such as TransferWise, World
Remit and World First. For years, banks made money by charging exorbitant
fees on international payments and hedging against exchange rates. The new
fintech companies providing money transfer services use web platforms to
slash these costs for both businesses and individuals. The CEO of World
First, who worked in banking before establishing his own business in 2004,
expresses the view that businesses were getting a bad service from banking on
foreign exchange and set out to offer them a better one. This, however, does
not make fintech a revolution.
In yet another sense of the fintech revolution, Blakstad and Allen (2018)
emphasise the role fintech plays in enhancing financial inclusion, an issue
that will be examined in detail in Chapter 8. Their argument is that fintech is
a revolution, in the sense that it will provide financial services to those billions
of people who do not have bank accounts. However, the contribution of fintech
to financial inclusion is questionable and exclusion may be a direct outcome
of the lack of access to the internet and unfamiliarity with the underlying tech-
nology. Even in this narrow sense, therefore, fintech may not be a revolution.
Some observers consider fintech to be a revolution only with respect to
a specific financial activity or a class of financial services. For example, some
would argue that Insurtech has revolutionised the insurance sector, which
means that fintech is a revolution because it brought technology to the provi-
sion of insurance services. However, Sentner (2018) argues that, as far as the
insurance sector is concerned, technology has been there all along. He dis-
misses the notion of “insurtech revolution” because “most of the folks involved
in insurance technology today are unaware that insurance was an early adopter
of technology”. In the 1960s, for example, Travelers (an American insurance
company that was the second-largest writer of commercial property casualty
insurance, and the sixth-largest writer of personal insurance through independ-
ent agents) installed one of the very first IBM mainframe computers, and its
peers were not far behind.
of financial services, which may or may not include traditional financial insti-
tutions. In this chapter, fintech seems to refer to the application of technology
as we went back long before the term “fintech” appeared. The modern fintech
industry may be represented by Arner et al.’s Fintech 3.0 and Fintech 3.5, the
episode that witnessed the rapid creation of new firms concentrating on the
provision of specific financial services by using state-of-the-art technology.
As in the case of definitions, the historical evolution of fintech has been
made such a controversial issue. Who cares whether fintech can be traced
back to 1500, 1833, 1860, 1990, 2000 or 2008? What is important is whether
the use of technology in finance at the level witnessed now pays off in terms
of costs and benefits, which also leads to the question of whether or not the
industry should be regulated and to what extent, given that it brings with it
new kinds of risk and perhaps aggravates the risk of fraud. The answer to
these important questions does not depend on when phase 1 started and came
to an end, or whether the definition of fintech is short or long. The task is to
identify certain activities involving the use of technology to provide financial
services, measure the costs and benefits, and take appropriate regulatory action
if necessary. This task does not depend on whether the growth of fintech is
evolutionary or revolutionary.
Some fintech enthusiasts express the view that the development of fintech
was evolutionary for a long time, then it became revolutionary in the 21st
century. These are the same enthusiasts who hold the ludicrous view that
fintech will “give power to people” (presumably by putting them in a vulnera-
ble position in front of hackers and cyber criminals). Fintech is by no means a
“genie”, whether it is inside or outside the bottle. Fintech is not revolutionary
in the sense that banks will disappear as a result. It is undeniable, however,
that the new international money transfer services represent a cheaper alterna-
tive to the services provided by banks that do not shy away from ripping off
customers. However, this does not alter the fact that fintech is the evolutionary
application of the technology created by human endeavour to the provision of
financial services, just like any other economic activity for which technology
is suitable.
3. Functions and market structure
3.1 INTRODUCTION
The fintech industry in a broad sense consists of a variety of players, but many
of them tend to be start-ups that are focused narrowly on applying a particular
technology to enhance or transform a specific financial service. This is why, in
a narrow sense, the fintech industry consists of the start-ups. Examples include
robo-advisors (such as Wealthfront and Betterment), peer-to-peer lending
companies (such as LendingClub), and providers of digital wallets and online
payment services (such as Venmo). In this chapter, however, we consider the
fintech industry in a broad sense, the industry that consists of start-ups and
others.
Another segment of the fintech industry in a broad sense consists of estab-
lished technology companies, including Apple, Google, Facebook, IBM and
Microsoft, which use their knowledge and experience to provide financial
services as a way to expand their activities. Existing providers of finan-
cial infrastructure or payment and transaction technology are also becom-
ing increasingly active in advancing new or emerging technologies, while
a growing number of traditional banks and other financial institutions are
adopting fintech applications to transform their own business models. The
boundaries between these various types of companies are becoming increas-
ingly blurred as they enter into partnerships with each other.
Fintech applications are used in a wide variety of financial areas, from
retail-oriented services to capital markets and financial infrastructure. Several
taxonomies have been developed to classify and map the universe of fintech
applications. For example, the Financial Stability Board (2017) has proposed
a classification into five broad areas: (i) payments, clearing and settlement;
(ii) deposits, lending and capital raising; (iii) insurance; (iv) investment man-
agement; and (v) market support. Fintech companies that participate in core
banking activities (that is, deposits, lending and capital raising as listed under
(ii) above) have to make a strategic choice by deciding whether or not they use
their own balance sheets to fund credit intermediation activities, as this deci-
sion has important risk management implications. Those that use balance-sheet
financing are referred to as “balance sheet lenders”, whereas companies that
act as pure intermediaries between borrowers and lenders are known as “mar-
33
34 Fintech
ketplace lenders”. At this point, fintech companies that are active in this area
tend to adopt a hybrid model. Several other classification schemes have been
suggested, but (broadly speaking) fintech applications fall under four broad
areas: (i) payment and settlement, (ii) investment management, (iii) credit and
deposits, and (iv) insurance.
The word “functions” is used here to refer to the activities that can be classified
as fintech activities, which produce digital financial services. Fintech encom-
passes a variety of financial activities and transactions, such as transferring
money, depositing a cheque by using a mobile phone, bypassing a bank branch
to apply for credit, raising money for a new business by using crowdfunding,
and managing investments without the assistance of a real human being. Table
3.1 provides just a few examples of fintech companies specialising in the
provision of financial services by using state-of-the-art technology. The table
shows that there is more than finance in the activities of fintech companies as
listed by Fintech Weekly. For example, some of these companies provide soft-
ware that is used in the provision of financial services and for other purposes.
The following is a brief description of fintech functions, where overlapping
may be present. The description follows the literature where fintech applica-
tions are portrayed to be useful, revolutionary and life-saving. An alternative
view will be expressed in Chapter 5 where the dark side of fintech is exposed.
Banking
Source: https://fintechweekly.com/fintech-companies
among new banks, neobanks, beta banks and non-banks. New banks have full
banking licenses and compete directly with big traditional banks by offering
similar services and products. Neobanks do not have banking licenses, but
they enter into partnership with financial institutions to offer the services
typically provided by licensed banks. They require customers to have accounts
at an existing licensed bank, and then they offer more user-friendly interfaces
and fee-free services. Beta banks are joint ventures or subsidiaries of existing
banks that offer financial services through the parent company’s license. They
are often set up for the purpose of entering new markets, offering limited
services to a broader customer base. Non-banks (or non-banking financial
companies), which have no connections to traditional licensed banks, provide
financial services by other means, such as an electronic money (or e-money)
license. The services provided by non-banks are related to electronic means of
payment. They may offer loans but do not provide deposit services.
Crowdfunding
to make small or large donations for different causes, typically for charity
purposes. Investors do not receive any ownership of equity, financial benefit,
or reward—instead, they are motivated by various factors, including the desire
to contribute to the achievement of the project’s goals. At most, contributors
realise special recognition in return for their contributions.
website will still need the gateway or payment processor to complete the
transaction. Payment gateways, which have removed the interference of
a bank for every transaction, have the following attractive features: (i) they use
encryption to secure the transactions; (ii) they are compliant with the Payment
Card Industry Data Security Standards established to provide secure payment
solutions by forcing companies to use firewalls on their internal networks;
and (iii) a two-factor authentication feature is a must for payment gateways to
provide an additional security layer to their users. They are therefore a much
more secure mode of transaction, they help businesses expand their reach by
connecting to customers from all over the world, and they allow the settlement
of transactions much more rapidly than the standard manual processing used
by banks.
Fintech has caused an explosion in the number of investing and saving apps.
Barriers to investing are being broken down by companies like Robinhood,
Stash and Acorns. While these apps differ by design, all of them are intended
to introduce small investors to financial markets. The underlying idea is that
investing in financial markets is no longer limited to wealthy people. With
Functions and market structure 39
investment apps like SoFi Active Invest, customers can get started with $1 and
trade stocks directly from mobile devices, without having to pay commissions.
Gone are the days when a customer had to bring a ton of paperwork into
a bank to see whether they qualify for a loan. Now, the entire process can be
done on a laptop or a smartphone. Online marketplaces like LendingTree,
Credible and SoFi provide customers with multiple offers after entering some
basic information. Online mortgage lenders aim to simplify the homebuying
40 Fintech
Insurance
Budgeting
In a broad sense, the fintech industry (or ecosystem) consists of (i) fintech
service providers; (ii) the technology used by fintech service providers to
transform financial services; (iii) intermediaries using fintech to broker finan-
cial services; (iv) regulators; and (v) fintech enablers, providing support for
the growth of the industry. These components of the broad fintech industry are
described in turn.
Service providers are the fintech firms executing the functions described in
the previous section and more. In Figure 3.1 we can see the line of business
of the world’s top 50 fintech companies, most of which are in the lending
business. Users of fintech are of two kinds: business-to-business (B2B)
users and business-to-consumer (B2C) users. B2B services make it possible
to execute financial transactions between two companies without any bank
intermediation. The two companies may be a manufacturer and a wholesaler,
or a wholesaler and a retailer. B2C, on the other hand, pertains to transactions
Functions and market structure 43
Figure 3.2 displays the products and services of B2C and B2B under the
functions of lending, payments, financial management, insurance, and other
functions. Table 3.2 provides a brief description of some of the terms associ-
ated with the products and services that appear in Figure 3.2.
B2C as a business model typically involves a higher volume of customers
conducting small transactions, whereas B2B businesses deal with a small
44 Fintech
Table 3.2 A brief description of the terms associated with products and
services
Product/Service Description
Digital origination A digital origination platform makes the process of applying for a bank product
easier for customers. It is a sales and underwriting system that provides full flexibility
in offering bank products and services. Digital origination provides a consistent and
personalised user experience on all screen sizes.
Algo-based credit The use of algorithms to estimate the probability that an applicant will default by
assessment comparing his or her current and historical data to data on borrowers who have taken
similar loans in the past. An applicant is considered risky if people who share his or
her characteristics have paid late or defaulted.
Theme-based Lending for special purposes such as education and health.
lending
Asset-backed A specialised method of providing companies with working capital and term
finance loans that use accounts receivable, inventory, machinery, equipment or real estate
as collateral. It is essentially any loan to a company that is secured by one of the
company’s assets.
Off-balance The opposite of the traditional form of lending (on-balance lending) in which funds
lending owned by the lender are borrowed. Hybrid lending includes both.
Short-term working A loan to finance working capital is used by a business borrower to pay for inventory,
capital finance advertising and equipment, as well as meeting payroll and other operating expenses.
Invoice discounting A loan secured against outstanding invoices.
Invoice factoring Invoice factoring companies acquire unpaid invoices outright, allowing them to deal
with customers directly.
Point-of-sales A POS system allows a business to accept payments from customers and keep track
systems of sales. Modern POS systems are entirely digital.
Agent networks Financial service providers sometimes use agent networks instead of traditional
branches to reach more customers at a lower cost. Agent networks may comprise an
established distribution network, such as post offices and retail chains.
Micro-insurance The protection of low-income people against specific risks in exchange for regular
premium payments appropriate to the underlying risk. Micro-insurance products offer
coverage to low-income households or to individuals who have little savings. It is
tailored specifically for lower valued assets and compensation for illness, injury or
death.
Farmer insurance The provision of general liability and product liability insurance for farmers.
Hybrid insurance Insurers adopting this business model create an entirely new digital business, while
models leaving their existing one largely untouched.
Functions and market structure 45
Product/Service Description
Cloud-based core A core banking system is used to process banking transactions and post updates
banking system to accounts and other financial records. Cloud-based core banking requires the
migration of the bank’s core to a cloud provider, to exploit the provider’s computing,
tooling and operations power.
KYC support KYC means “know your customer” and sometimes “know your client”. KYC check
is the mandatory process of identifying and verifying the client’s identity when
opening an account and periodically over time. In other words, banks must make sure
that their clients are genuinely who they claim to be.
The Technology
habit out of financial decisions. Learning apps are intended to learn the habits
of users and engage them in learning games to improve their automatic, uncon-
scious spending and saving decisions. Chatbots and AI interfaces are intended
to assist customers with basic tasks and also keep down staffing costs. Fintech
is also used to fight fraud by analysing information about payment history to
flag transactions that fall outside the norm.
The intermediaries using fintech to provide financial services enable con-
sumers to get better deals, using technology to search for the best financial
product at the best price. They also help customers improve the way they
manage their money by consolidating their products. For example, customers
can use an Application Programming Interface (API) to get access to all of
their investments and bank accounts under one roof, allowing them to manage
their investments and day-to-day budgets. APIs and other technologies will be
examined in detail in Chapter 4.
Regulators
Enablers
Fintech enablers take many shapes and forms, including accelerators, incu-
bators, consultants, advisers, investors and the media. Enablers facilitate or
enhance an existing process or solution, motivated by the profit that can be
realised by contributing to the development of the fintech industry. In a narrow
sense, enablers are the technology platforms that rent out their core banking
infrastructure to enhance financial apps and services. In this sense, enablers
help fintech companies by providing them with core banking technology to
enhance compliance, authentication and payment processing.
“leads to a misleading assumption that disruptive Fintech can only come from
start-ups”. In reality, however, traditional banks and incumbent financial
institutions are in a position to leverage the power of fintech for the purpose of
enhancing operational efficiency and improving customer experience.
Tikam (2017) expresses the view that “Fintech startup is a misconception”
because “the Fintech sector has proven to be incredibly lucrative at attracting
entrepreneurs and incumbent players alike”. He argues that incumbent players,
and even some non-financial services corporate giants, are striving to tap this
business to disrupt the status quo, gain operational efficiency and improve cus-
tomer experience. He suggests that they do that by (i) setting up intrapreneurial
fintech start-up ventures within the group, but in a totally separate and auton-
omous business unit; (ii) leveraging their sizeable and highly invested infra-
structure to support new financial services models; (iii) making a better use of
their own customer data by using big data analytics, artificial intelligence and
automation; and (iv) exploring technology that helps them comply efficiently
and effectively with regulatory changes. Intrapreneurship is an entrepreneurial
activity within a large, established business, intended to address a new market
opportunity or develop a new way of doing things, outside the normal scope
of activities.
Related to the concept of start-ups are incubators and accelerators, which are
regarded as fintech enablers. A start-up incubator is a collaborative programme
for start-up companies (typically located in one central workspace) intended
to help start-ups in their infancy by providing workspace, seed funding, men-
toring and training. Start-up incubators are typically non-profit organisations,
often associated with universities and business schools, which extend invita-
tions to students, alumni and members of the community to take advantage of
the programme. Some popular incubator programmes include Y Combinator,
TechStars and Excelerate Labs. Beyond basic business resources, the benefits
of joining a start-up incubator include networking (access to a network of suc-
cessful business partners), mentorship (the opportunity to hear and learn from
the personal experiences of successful mentors in their chosen industry), and
support from other entrepreneurs (the opportunities and experiences shared
with the other members of the incubator).
An accelerator works in partnership with innovative firms exploring the use
of new technology to harness fintech innovations. Working in partnership with
an accelerator, firms have the opportunity to apply their technology to a “real
issue” and engage directly with some subject matter experts. Although the
terms “accelerator” and “incubator” are often used interchangeably, they are
different: accelerators are intended to accelerate business development, while
incubators are designed to nurture innovative business ideas. Ryan (2019)
identifies a number of differences based on purpose, programme design, range
of resources, sponsorship, seed funding, duration and the selection process. For
Functions and market structure 49
Shadow banking has always been a source of concern because shadow banking
institutions are unregulated or lightly regulated compared with traditional
financial institutions, particularly commercial banks and deposit-taking insti-
tutions. This is why shadow banking institutions have been used by traditional
ones to circumvent regulation. If fintech firms are anything close to shadow
banking institutions, regulators should consider the consequences of allowing
fintech firms to operate without or with little regulation.
The shadow banking system consists of non-bank financial institutions that
provide financial services as an alternative to those provided by traditional
commercial banks (which sounds like fintech firms). While traditional banks
are regulated by central banks and their operations are subject to international
banking regulation (such as the Basel accords), the shadow banking system is
not subject to the same regulation, which provides the means whereby regu-
lated banks can circumvent regulation by conducting business through shadow
banking. Effectively, therefore, the shadow banking system is a loophole in
the regulatory framework. Like regular banks, shadow banks provide credit
and boost the liquidity of financial markets but, unlike regulated banks, they
have no access to central bank funding or safety nets such as deposit insurance
and debt guarantees. Bill Gross, president of PIMCO, has the following to say
about shadow banking: “Beware our shadow banking system. … What we are
witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system,
a complex of leveraged lending so hard to understand that Federal Reserve
chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge
fund managers in mid-August” (Gross, 2007). The shadow banking system is
thought to have contributed significantly to the advent of the global financial
crisis (Simkovic, 2009; Gorton, 2010; Harvey, 2010).
The arguments for and against the regulation of the shadow banking system
could well be the arguments for and against the regulation of fintechs. Calls
for the regulation of shadow banking were rampant in the aftermath of the
crisis. The Economist (2014) suggested that “shadow banking certainly has
the credentials to be a global bogeyman” because “it is huge, fast-growing in
certain forms and little understood—a powerful tool for good but, if carelessly
managed, potentially explosive”. Furthermore, most observers agree that the
growth of shadow banking has been largely driven by regulatory arbitrage,
50 Fintech
from the lending of traditional banks, it involves more counterparty risk and
it is perhaps more susceptible to fraud. The common characteristic shared by
shadow banks and fintechs is “innovation”, financial innovation as the product
of shadow banks, and technological innovation as the product of fintechs.
wishful thinking than reason, and in this particular case we are unlikely to see
a triumph of wishful thinking over reason. We will deal with this issue in more
detail in the very last chapter of this book.
The discussion so far shows that “fintech” is a rather loose concept that
is used in different senses to mean different things. The first sense is that
fintech refers to financial technology or the technology as used by financial
institutions. After all, fintech is short for financial technology. In another
sense, fintech refers to the industry comprised of all financial institutions
using technology, which is the fintech industry in a broad sense. The industry
in a narrow sense is made up of the new firms (start-ups) using technology to
provide financial services that are distinct from what is provided by traditional
financial institutions. In chapters 5, 8, 9 and 10 the discussion centres on
fintech in a narrow sense.
4. The technology
4.1 INTRODUCTION
55
56 Fintech
car to take you to the airport as fast as possible). Table 4.1 shows examples of
how AI is used in various fields, including the fight against Covid-19.
Application Description
Agriculture Defects and nutrient deficiencies in the soil
Artificial creativity Composing classical music (for example, MuseNet)
Auditing Continuous auditing of financial statements
Banking Customer support, detecting anomalies and credit card fraud
Chatbots Household virtual assistants such as Siri and Cortana
Covid-19 Using AI to enforce social distance requirements and speed
up testing. AI is also used to develop mathematical models to
determine the transmission rate of Covid-19
Cyber-security Detecting vulnerabilities and anomalous user behaviour
E-commerce Shopping recommendations according to browsing history, virtual
shopping assistants and chatbots, and fraud prevention.
Education AI tutors
Finance Ultra-high-frequency trading and numerous other applications
Government Mass surveillance
Healthcare Detecting diseases and identifying cancer cells
Hospitality Predicting hotel guests’ preferences
Human resources Staff hiring
Law Assessing the likelihood of a defendant becoming a recidivist
Logistics and supply chain Autonomous trucks and robotic picking systems
Marketing Delivery of highly targeted and personalised ads with the help of
behavioural analysis, pattern recognition, etc.
Military Intelligence collection and analysis, logistics, cyber operations,
information operations, command and control, semiautonomous and
autonomous vehicles
Navigation GPS technology, Uber
Retail Customer service
Robotics Carrying goods in factories and warehouses, cleaning offices and
large equipment, inventory management
Social media Removing propaganda and hateful content
Space exploration Identifying distant solar systems
Sports betting Predicting future outcomes
Vehicles Self-driving vehicles
Workplace health and safety Removing workers from hazardous situations
58 Fintech
The finance applications of AI are numerous. Azulay (2019) argues that “the
finance sector has proven itself an early adopter of AI in comparison to other
industries”, describing the applications of AI in finance as “myriad”. He pro-
vides an overview of the most popular and prominent AI capabilities available
to banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions. The applica-
tions include credit decisions (by utilising a variety of factors to more tradi-
tionally underserved borrowers more accurately), risk management (to identify
trends and risks), quantitative trading (identifying patterns that can be used to
make profitable trades), personalised banking (by using AI assistants, such as
chatbots, to generate personalised financial advice), cyber-security, and fraud
detection (using AI-enabled bots to detect compromised login credentials).
Sometimes the terms “artificial intelligence” and “machine leaning” are used
interchangeably, but they are not the same. They are related in that AI encom-
passes ML, the latter being the study of computer algorithms that improve
automatically through experience. Distinction can be made among supervised,
unsupervised and reinforcement learning (for example, Bishop, 2006). Under
supervised learning, the computer is presented with example inputs and their
desired outputs. In unsupervised learning, no labels are given to the learning
algorithm, leaving it on its own to find structure in its input. In reinforcement
learning, a computer program interacts with a dynamic environment in which
it must perform a certain task (such as driving a vehicle or playing a game
against an opponent).
The distinction between AI and ML is described by Marr (2016) as follows:
AI is the broader concept of machines being able to carry out tasks in a way
that is considered to be “smart”, while ML is a current application of AI
based around the idea of giving machines access to data and letting them
learn for themselves. Rather than teaching computers and machines how to
do everything, it would be far more efficient to code them to think like human
beings, and then plug them into the internet to give them access to a vast
amount of information. Machine learning applications can read text and work
out whether the person who wrote it is making a complaint or offering congrat-
ulations. They can also listen to a piece of music, decide whether it is likely
to make someone happy or sad, and find other pieces of music to match the
mood. In some cases, they can even compose their own music, expressing the
same themes or something else that is likely to be appreciated by the admirers
of the original piece.
Differences between AI and ML can be more specific. While AI is a tech-
nology that enables a machine to simulate human behaviour, ML is a subset of
AI that allows a machine to learn automatically from available data. While AI
The technology 59
to recognise images and classify them according to the elements they contain.
Neural networks have been used to teach computers to think and understand
the world like humans do, while retaining the advantages they hold over
humans such as speed, accuracy and unbiasedness. The addition of a feedback
loop enables learning by sensing or being told whether its decisions are right
or wrong, so that the adopted approach can be changed.
ANNs may take several shapes and forms, but the most common type is
the multi-layer feed-forward back-propagation or simply the feed-forward
network. This ANN, as shown in Figure 4.2, consists of layers of four inputs
and one output. In each layer, inputs are connected either to a preceding layer
or they come from the outside world. The input layer, which is connected to
the outside world on the input side, distributes signals from the outside world
to the other layers. The function of the output layer, which is connected to the
outside world on the output side, is to collect the features detected from the
The technology 61
signals and use those features to produce a response. The layers in between
(intermediate, hidden or middle layers) have no input or output connection
with the outside world and perform the function of detecting features of the
signals they receive. They also provide a link between input and output layers.
The network maps inputs into outputs in such a way as to make the signals
flow in one direction only (that is, from the input layer to the middle layer to
the output layer). It is obvious from Figure 4.2 that feed-forward networks are
fully connected, in the sense that each unit is connected to every output from
the preceding layer or one input from the outside world.
Just like ML is a subfield of AI, deep learning is a subfield of machine
learning. Neural networks make up the backbone of deep learning algorithms.
In fact, it is the number of node layers, or depth, of neural networks that dis-
tinguishes a single neural network from a deep learning algorithm, which must
have more than three (Kavlakoglu, 2020). The way in which they differ is in
how each algorithm learns. In deep learning, much of the feature extraction
part of the process is automated, thereby eliminating some of the manual
human intervention required and enabling the use of larger data sets. Classical,
or non-deep, machine learning is more dependent on human intervention to
learn. Most deep neural networks are feed-forward, meaning that they flow
in one direction only from input to output. However, a model can be trained
through back-propagation (that is, move in opposite direction from output to
input). Artificial intelligence, machine learning, neural networks and deep
learning comprise a nested system, as shown in Figure 4.3, such that each item
is a component of the prior item.
ML has numerous applications in day-to-day life. These include virtual per-
sonal assistants (such as Siri and Alexa), traffic predictions, video surveillance,
social media services, email spam and malware filtering, online customer
support, search engine result refining (such as Google), product recommen-
dations (online shopping), and online fraud detection. Other applications are
image recognition, speech recognition, medical diagnosis, and the extraction
of structured information from unstructured data. Numerous applications
can be found in healthcare, including disease identification, medical imaging
diagnosis, robotic surgery, robotic patient support tasks, personalised med-
icine, sharing patient information, patient autonomy, and patient safety and
outcomes. Machine learning is used to transform agriculture and has applica-
tions in animal behaviour studies. In mechanical engineering, ML is used for
mechanical system modelling.
The applications of ML in finance are numerous. The suitability of ML
to finance is attributed by Cheung (2020), who argues that ML is reshaping
the financial services industry like never before, due to the availability of
vast amounts of data generated by the finance industry. Financial institutions
use ML to streamline their processes, optimise portfolios, manage risk and
62 Fintech
The term “big data” refers to a huge data set that cannot be processed effec-
tively with traditional applications due to the challenge of capturing, storing,
transferring, querying and updating data in such large amounts. Simply stated,
humans cannot manage to sift through huge amounts of information and get
insights from it. The OECD (2020b) describes big data as “diverse datasets,
which can be anything from expanded datasets to social media data”, suggest-
ing that “the granularity of data has the potential to give insights into a variety
of predicted behaviours and incidents”. For example, the data set provided by
the 691,000 CCTV cameras found in the streets of London (operating 24/7,
365 days per year) is so huge that even an army cannot effectively sift through
the footage for suspicious activity.
Big data is characterised by volume, variety (data from different sources or
in different formats), velocity (the speed at which data are generated and at
which they need to be available for processing), veracity (trustworthiness of
sources) and value (usefulness for the underlying model). The OECD (2020b)
suggests that a common definition of big data is to view it in the 3Vs (volume,
variety and velocity), which are all “high” in the case of big data. High volume,
as defined by the OECD, is in multiple terabytes (where a terabyte is 1,000
gigabytes, requiring 1,500 CDs or 220 DVDs) or petabytes (one million giga-
bytes). High variety implies structural heterogeneity in a data set containing
structured data (such as tabular data found in spreadsheets or extracted from
databases) and unstructured data (such as text, images, audio and video).
Even though the term “big data” was used during the 1990s, its origin can be
traced to the May 2011 EMC world conference on the theme of “Cloud Meets
Big Data” (for example, Roczniak, 2011). Around the same time, a McKinsey
report was published, expressing the view that analysing large data sets (big
data) “will become a key basis of competition, underpinning new waves of
productivity growth, innovation, and consumer surplus”. The report predicts
that “the increasing volume and detail of information captured by enterprises,
the rise of multimedia, social media, and the Internet of Things will fuel
exponential growth in data for the foreseeable future” (Manyika et al., 2011).
The term “big data” may refer to more than the data itself—more generally to
the storage and fast processing of large amounts of data. The OECD (2020b)
suggests that the term “is not limited to the type of data, but also includes the
data processing and analytic aspect of big data”.
The processing of big data involves artificial intelligence, machine learning
and deep learning whereby it is possible to detect anomalies, calculate the
probability of an outcome and identify patterns. AI and related techniques are
used to take data from multiple sources and paint a picture of what customers
64 Fintech
are looking for. AI and big data have become interdependent, as none can work
without the other. The OECD (2020b) describes the connection between big
data and AI as follows: “Big data and artificial intelligence (AI) are two words
that are widely used when discussing the future of business”. According to
the OECD, “the potential for applying them in diverse aspects of business has
caught the imagination of many, in particular, how AI could replace humans in
the workplace”. Furthermore, the OECD believes that “big data and AI could
customise business processes and decisions better suited to individual needs
and expectations, improving the efficiency of processes and decisions”.
Big data sets are collected primarily from online sources. Google’s Eric
Schmidt notes that “we now create and store more data in 48 hours than was
created from the beginning of human civilisation to 2003” (Siegler, 2010).
Companies can learn what consumers want by analysing the content cus-
tomers share, the pages they like, the reviews they leave, the feedback they
give, and the sites they frequently visit. Big data is analysed for insights that
lead to better decisions and strategic business moves, and to find new growth
opportunities.
Table 4.2 displays the use of big data in finance and other fields. The ability
to collect and analyse big data offers significant benefits for a range of sectors,
including crime prevention, health and commercial enterprise, but it has also
made our most private, intimate and personal information more accessible than
ever before. The development of data-sharing technologies means that our
personal information is traded by data collectors. Information on communi-
cation patterns, social media behaviour and internet histories (with associated
inferences about preferences, political affiliations and sexual orientations) is
amalgamated, and made available to third parties. These are the features of
an advanced surveillance society, where it is difficult to do anything without
producing traceable data. For instance, big data and mass surveillance pose
a threat to liberty by empowering security organisations that excessively inter-
fere in the private lives of innocent citizens. Big data and mass surveillance
may also pose a threat to democratic freedoms by obstructing free expression,
particularly among political activists and journalists. Furthermore, big data
and mass surveillance can threaten social, political and economic opportunities
as our deepest and most personal secrets have become “discoverable” online.
Brown (2015) points out that “the volume of data collected by the NSA and
the associated costs make it the ultimate in Big Data case studies”. She sum-
marises the situation as follows: “Everybody’s a target. There’s the thing about
Big Data”. The connection between “Big Data” and “Big Brother” is quite
conspicuous.
Big data in finance refers to large, diverse (structured and unstructured) and
complex sets of data that can be used to provide solutions to long-standing
business challenges for financial institutions. Chen (2018) argues that big data
The technology 65
technology has become an integral part of the financial services industry and
will continue to drive future innovation. Big data is used in finance for mul-
tiple purposes. It is used for the purpose of generating real-time stock market
insights and predictions. Big data analytics is used to improve predictive
modelling to estimate rates of return and investment outcomes. Financial insti-
tutions use big data to explore customer needs and preferences to anticipate
future behaviour, generate sales leads, take advantage of new channels and
technologies, enhance their products, and improve customer satisfaction. Big
data can also assist risk management and fraud detection. Insurance compa-
nies, for example, access data from social media, past claims, criminal records
and telephone conversations while processing a claim (if anything suspicious
is found, it can flag the claim for further investigation).
The 1950s witnessed the rise of digital (or classical) computing, but, as of the
1980s, scientists started to approach numerical calculations from an entirely
new perspective by using the intrinsic, quantum mechanical properties of
matter to carry out difficult calculations. Quantum computing is based on the
quantum physics observation that specific properties of particles can be found
66 Fintech
in two states, or any combination of the two states, at the same time. While tra-
ditional computers are based on dualistic processing systems (ones and zeros),
quantum systems can be 1 and 0 (or a mixture of 1 and 0) simultaneously.
This property (known as “superposition”) enables the exploration of immense
computational possibilities.
Big data may be so big that even a supercomputer might take a long time
to crack the problem, which means that ever more powerful computers are
required for the purpose of calculating probabilities accurately. This realisa-
tion has forced banks to resort to a new generation of processors that utilise
the principles of quantum physics to perform data crunching at enormous
speed. At the leading edge of quantum computing are companies such as IBM,
Microsoft and Google, which are building quantum computers that aim to do
things that classical computers cannot do. In 2019, Google announced that its
Sycamore quantum processor took a little more than three minutes to perform
a task that would occupy a supercomputer for thousands of years (Backes et
al., 2020).
Quantum computing is used in conjunction with artificial intelligence and
machine learning to solve complex problems very quickly. This combination
can be used to develop various techniques to combat cyber-security threats
and to create encryption methods that are collectively called “quantum
cryptography”. It is (or can be) used in computational chemistry to improve
the nitrogen-fixation process for creating ammonia-based fertilizer, create
a room-temperature superconductor, remove carbon dioxide for a better
climate, and create solid-state batteries. It can also be used in drug design
and development instead of the process that depends on trial and error. Other
applications are in logistics optimisation and weather forecasting.
The use of quantum modelling in finance is described by Orús et al. (2019).
Many problems in finance can be expressed as optimisation problems, which
can be very hard for traditional computers. The detection of patterns in past
data can be done more efficiently by using quantum computing, which has led
to the development of quantum machine learning algorithms (Biamonte et al.,
2017). Moreover, the behaviour of some financial systems can be predicted
by applying Monte Carlo methods. The act of sampling a distribution function
can limit the speed, and hence the applicability, of the underlying algorithm. It
has been suggested that this task could be performed efficiently by sampling
a quantum system (for example, Montanaro, 2015).
The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the billions of physical devices that are
connected to the internet for the purpose of collecting and sharing data. Any
physical object can be transformed into an IoT device if it can be connected
The technology 67
4.7 AGGREGATORS
and big data to share information. A bank that receives huge amounts of data
may find it too complex, expensive, and time-consuming to comb through.
A Regtech firm can combine complex information from a bank with data from
previous regulatory failures to predict potential risk areas that the bank should
focus on. Table 4.3 displays examples of Regtech companies and the tools they
have created. A schematic representation of Regtech applications can be found
in Figure 4.4.
Company Activity
IdentityMind Global Provision of anti-fraud and risk management services for digital transactions by
tracking payment entities
Trunomi Secure management of the consent to use customer personal data
Suade Helping banks submit required regulatory reports without disruption to their
architecture
Silverfinch Connecting asset managers and insurers through a fund data utility to meet
solvency requirements.
PassFort Automating the collection and storage of customer due diligence data
Fund Recs Overseeing how data are managed and processed by the fund industry
Blockchain technology can be used for several purposes. The primary use of
blockchains today is as a distributed ledger for cryptocurrencies, most notably
bitcoin. In any industry, blockchain can be used for information-sharing across
organisations, supply chain management, co-ordinating logistics (as well as
payments, financial terms and contract rules), auditing (as records can be ver-
ified instantly and independently), compliance, and business contracts (setting
pre-defined rules for transactions between two or more parties engaged in
The technology 77
Industry/Application Description
Banking and finance Streamlining payment processing, speeding up and securing transactions,
minimising auditing complexity, making credit reports more accurate and
transparent
Charity Tracking donation allocation, reducing overhead and complexity of donation
payment processing, providing auditable trail for donations to prevent fraud
Cloud storage Boosting security through decentralised network, crowdsourcing unused
cloud storage
Education Digitising and verifying academic credentials
Energy Peer-to-peer energy transfer and smart utility metering
Government Reducing voter fraud, minimising government fraud, boosting accountability
and compliance for government officials, validating identity
Healthcare Patient databases, medical supply chain management, clinical trial
provenance
Human resources Background checks, verification of identity and employment history
Insurance Improving multi-party contracts, streamlining claims adjudication, reducing
disputes with transparency of shared data
Law enforcement Integrity of evidence, resistance to falsification of case data, tracking
criminal history
Legal Smart contracts
Media Control of ownership rights, copyright infringement, the use of smart
contracts for artist compensation
Motor vehicles Tracking vehicle history, supply chain parts management
Real estate Transparency of agreements, verification of property information, reducing
paperwork, recording land titles
Transportation Tracking journey stops, creating an immutable ledger of trip data
Travel Passenger identification, airline loyalty programmes
Wills and inheritances Using smart contracts to determine the validity of wills and allocation of
inheritances
5.1 INTRODUCTION
One of the basic principles of finance is that of the risk–return trade-off: anyone
seeking higher returns must be prepared to bear more risk, and anyone wanting
to reduce risk must be willing to accept lower returns. This principle is often
expressed as the adage that there is no such thing as a free lunch. The lunch is
return, which is priced in terms of risk. This adage can be generalised to mean
that benefits bring with them costs, risks or challenges and that advantages
typically come with disadvantages. This applies to technology in general and
financial technology in particular. While fintech enthusiasts typically concen-
trate on the benefits, advantages and pros of fintech, they choose to ignore the
costs, disadvantages and cons of fintech and the risks and challenges associ-
ated with it. In this sense, fintech is defined in a narrow sense, consisting of the
new firms providing financial services by using state-of-the-art technology.
The perceived advantages of fintech stem from the observation that it can
enhance the financial services industry in many ways: by providing a better
customer experience, strengthening critical infrastructure components, boost-
ing access to the financial system, realising efficiencies, and reducing costs
for market participants and the investing public. For all of these benefits,
however, fintech may also produce negative consequences, such as exacer-
bating cyber-security threats and amplifying third-party risks. The desirability
of going all the way with fintech rests on a comparison of costs and benefits,
which is also true of technology in general. The starting point is to consider
the costs and benefits of technology in general from an economic perspective.
81
82 Fintech
Something must be done about the adverse effects, which is why universal
basic income has been suggested to offset the effect of technology on poverty
and inequality. As a matter of fact, the use of technology is one of the fun-
damental arguments for the introduction of universal basic income (see, for
example, Moosa, 2021). These arguments apply as much to fintech as tech-
nology in general. Perhaps the case for fintech is weak because the costs could
outweigh the benefits.
A short list of the advantages and disadvantages (benefits and costs) of fintech
contains several entries. The advantages are faster transactions, low or no fees
for services, minimal paperwork, and a 24/7 mobile access anywhere. The
disadvantages, on the other hand, are the absence of physical branches (which
is also taken as a cost-reduction advantage), the need for internet access, diffi-
cult access to cash, and the lack of a long and reliable track record for fintech
companies. Fintechs, particularly PayPal, are leading an unlawful war on cash,
which is a major issue that will be dealt with in detail in Chapter 6.
Fintech companies provide speed and convenience because their products
are delivered online, which makes them easier and quicker for customers to
access, at least for customers who can use the technology and trust it. Fintechs
provide a greater choice of services because they can be offered remotely,
regardless of location. They offer cheaper deals because fintech companies
do not need to invest in a physical infrastructure like a branch network, which
enables them to offer cost-effective services. Their services are more person-
alised because technology allows them to collect and store more information
on customers, which puts them in a position to offer consumers personalised
products.
One disadvantage of fintech is unclear rights. Fintech companies are typ-
ically new to the finance industry and use different business models from
those adopted by traditional financial institutions, which makes it harder
to ascertain which ones are regulated, and what rights customers have if
something goes wrong. Another disadvantage is the ease of making a rash
decision. When financial products are bought online without anyone ever
meeting face to face, it becomes more likely for consumers to make bad
decisions. Technology-based risks are abundant in digital financial services.
Financial products bought online may leave customers more exposed to
technology-based risks (for example, improper use of personal data and the
possibility of falling victim to cyber-crime). Fintech may result in financial
ruin for those who are not familiar with the underlying technology.
The benefits and costs of fintech 85
or fully appreciate the implications of fintech for the profitability and stability
of traditional financial institutions, particularly the systemically important
financial institutions (SIFIs). There is limited knowledge of and familiarity
with new actors, products and delivery mechanisms. Fintech leads to serious
issues pertaining to data privacy and consumer protection. And there is the
law enforcement problem of dealing with fintech-related or enabled criminal
activity, such as the use of cryptocurrencies by criminals.
Seven key risk areas in digital finance are identified by Lauer and Lyman
(2015): inability to transact due to network/service downtime (interrupted and
incomplete transactions, inaccessible funds, etc.); insufficient agent liquidity
(customers do not have access to their own money); complex and confusing
user interfaces; poor customer recourse (unclear, costly and time-consuming
procedures); opaque fees and other terms (lack of transparency leaves con-
sumers without full understanding of prices as well as the terms and conditions
of the services they are using); fraud perpetrated on the customer; and data
privacy and protection (poor understanding of new uses of personal data, etc.).
Digital financial services, according to Porteous (2006), must be primarily
“transformational” rather than “additive”, which means that unbanked people
can gain access to financial services through their mobile phones without
having prior bank accounts. The promise of digital finance to “bank the
unbanked” pertains to the transformative model.
Now that we have gone through general and preliminary considerations of
the advantages and disadvantages of fintech, it is time to consider these issues
in some detail. The advantages (or benefits) of fintech are discussed in section
5.4, whereas the disadvantages (or costs) are discussed in section 5.5
Fintech helps expedite processes that once took days, weeks or even months,
like requesting a credit score report or transferring money internationally.
Traditional modes of payment, such as cash and bank transfers, had longer
wait times when compared with the modern payment options provided by
fintech. Newer technologies have made it possible for money to change hands
within seconds without compromising security. Fast processing of transactions
The benefits and costs of fintech 87
Fintech firms are in a position to offer cheaper services because they enjoy
lower operating costs and overheads than traditional financial institutions (for
example, they have lower operating costs than traditional financial institutions
because they need less office space and employees). Traditional financial
institutions have enormous operating costs, stemming from multi-layered
management structures and large offices in prime locations. The BCBS (2018)
notes that “innovations from fintech players may speed up transfers and pay-
ments and cut their costs.”
Chen et al. (2021) argue that fintech products are proclaimed to differ along
three dimensions: they require use of new technology and big data, they are
cheaper than what is offered by traditional financial institutions, and they are
designed to cater to specific consumer needs. Furthermore, the products are
offered with minimal paperwork. Noya (2019) suggests that fintech companies
focus on a single product, which they provide superbly, with lower costs and
exceptional user experience. They have a clear customer orientation because,
without the heavy legacy of traditional banks, fintech companies can focus on
solving users’ problems. The BCBS (2018) suggests that fintechs offer “better
and more tailored banking services” and that they “could help the banking
industry improve their traditional offerings in many ways”.
Boosting Competition
Fintech allows small firms to compete with large traditional financial institu-
tions, which must be good for competition and in the interest of consumers.
The BCBS (2018) suggests that fintech has the potential to lower barriers of
entry to the financial services market, elevate the role of data as a key commod-
ity, and drive the emergence of new business models. Noya (2019) notes that
fintech companies typically use some sort of advanced technology to achieve
a competitive advantage. One good example is Kabbage, a small-business
lender that gathers large amounts of data using artificial intelligence to grant
credit in just ten minutes.
Competition between disruptors and incumbents is influenced by regulation
as pointed out by the OECD (2020a). A main issue is whether regulation
88 Fintech
should aim at a level playing field or favour new entrants to promote com-
petition. It seems that governments are making it easier for the (potential)
disruptors to compete with the incumbents. For example, in 2019 the consumer
data right law was passed by the Australian parliament to create a new “open
banking” regime that will “shake up competition for consumers and boost
start-ups against the big banks” (Kehoe, 2019). The new rules require banks to
make customer data available to competitors on credit and debit cards, deposit
and transaction accounts, and mortgages if a consumer wants to move away
from banks and deal with a smaller lender or a fintech company. According to
the BCBS (2018), the competition provided by fintechs may have “potential
positive impact on financial stability” because the entry of new players com-
peting with incumbent banks could eventually fragment the banking services
market and reduce the systemic risk associated with players of systemic size.
The solutions offered by fintech companies are not “one size fits all”. Rather,
these companies offer targeted (often niche) services that fill the gap of a par-
ticular financial need. Furthermore, fintech has created a diversified menu of
options, ultimately resulting in more accessible financial markets for ordinary
people, not just top income earners. In this sense, fintech has levelled the
financial playing field for ordinary people, giving them access to services pre-
viously reserved for the wealthy or individuals of a certain economic stature.
For example, technology and the availability of big data make it much easier
and cheaper to bring investment advice to more people, making a service open
to everyone.
Consider lending, for example. In the past, underwriters only had a few
data sets that they could use to assess risk, which means that a large number
of potential borrowers were turned down or charged a higher interest rate for
a loan. Fintech companies rely on a different set of information to underwrite
customers, looking at indicators that traditional banks do not consider, thereby
providing more people with access to personal and business loans. All of that
could never happen without powerful computer systems and software and
data scientists who can make sense of it all. The problem with this claim is
that there is no guarantee that looking at indicators that traditional banks do
not consider and using larger data sets gives favourable decisions concerning
borrowers who were once denied. It could be the other way round, in the sense
that more data reveal more weaknesses in the ability to pay, such that those
who were previously granted loans are found unqualified.
The benefits and costs of fintech 89
Financial Inclusion
Ozili (2018) suggests that digital finance promises to boost the GDP of digital-
ised economies by providing convenient access to a diverse range of financial
products and services (and credit facilities) for individuals as well as small,
medium and large businesses. According to this line of reasoning, the avail-
ability of credit and financial services encourages people to spend, “thereby
improving GDP levels”. This line of reasoning is flawed because we know
very well that too much debt causes financial crises followed by recessions
(declining GDP levels). The levels of debt are already extremely high, and the
last thing any economy needs is more debt-financed consumption.
Manyika et al. (2016) present “precise” figures on the potential contribution
of fintech to GDP. Their quantitative analysis shows that $3.7 trillion could
be added to the GDP of emerging economies by 2025, a boost of 6%. This
growth, they note, will be associated with 95 million new jobs. Yet, they
suggest that this could be an underestimate as they do not quantify “a number
of long-term effects such as improved health care and education, a reduced
role for the informal economy, and a surge in business innovation”. The source
of this fantastic growth (which sounds too good to be true) is supposed to be
access to financial services by 1.6 billion unbanked people, and an additional
90 Fintech
Reducing Poverty
According to Ozili (2018), “the goal of financial services made available via
digital platforms is to contribute to poverty reduction”, which can be accom-
plished by the availability of “affordable, convenient and secure banking
services to poor individuals”. Ozili argues that “recent improvement in the
accessibility and affordability of digital financial services around the world
can help millions of poor customers move from cash-based transactions to
formal digital financial transactions on secured digital platforms”. In what way
does the move from cash-based transactions to digital financial transactions on
secured digital platforms help the poor? The poor are poor because they do not
have the money to spend on essential goods, not because they use the cash that
they do not have. If digital finance enables the poor to borrow more, they will
be even poorer. If fintech is an enabler of fraud, some not-so-poor people will
become poor if and when they get swindled.
Another exaggerated claim is made by Manyika et al. (2016), who suggest that
fintech can boost the quality and quantity of healthcare and education, leading
The benefits and costs of fintech 91
Manyika et al. (2016), again, suggest that digital payments enable greater
transparency, which (in turn) helps governments reduce the size of the large
informal economies that exist in many emerging economies. In essence what
they call for is to ban cash, which would improve tax collection and compli-
ance with labour laws. They refer to some econometric analysis revealing that
increasing electronic payments by an average of 10% per year could shrink
the size of the shadow economy by up to 5%. However, econometrics is a con
art that can be used to prove anything, particularly prior beliefs. They go on to
claim that reducing the size of the informal economy boosts the productivity
of the entire economy. The fact of the matter is that the informal economy is
a derogatory name for the sector where the under-privileged eke out a living.
As we are going to see, the war on cash is a war on all of us for the benefit
of banks and fintechs (and the consultants who serve them by spreading
propaganda).
Enhancing Liquidity
The list of benefits envisaged by Manyika et al. (2016) goes on and on. Yet
another alleged benefit is that fintech enhances liquidity because “as digital
payments become increasingly common, more transactions and payments can
take place”. In the absence of fintech, they imply, people tend to stash cash
92 Fintech
under the mattress or tucked into wallets, rather than circulating more freely
and channelled to funding investment via lending against deposit balances.
Have they heard of negative interest rates and the threat of confiscation coming
from the bail-in legislation? These are good reasons why wise people tend to
stash cash under the mattress. Wise people also keep cash in their wallets, just
in case the credit card is declined for a number of reasons, or that it cannot be
used because “the system is down”. Why is it that digital payments only are
associated with saving and investment? And what is the role of fintechs in this
flawed argument?
One more advantage that is claimed by Manyika et al. (2016) is that digital
payments enable a range of new business models to emerge, including new
types of financial services, such as P2P lending or new credit scoring methods,
micropayment opportunities for the poor, and new digital businesses including
e-commerce and on-demand services. All these services enable entrepreneur-
ship, innovation and job creation in the economy, spurring long-term growth.
Nice rhetoric, particularly in relation to the poor who will be less poor as
a result of digital payments!
In a special report, the United Nations (2020) identifies three ways whereby
fintech can contribute to sustainable development. To start with, it allows
savings to be channelled easily towards investments. This is, nowadays, an
extremely important issue as falling interest rates have brought the cost of
money close to zero with a persistent excess of liquidity. It is in this context
that retail savers are approaching alternative asset classes that were previously
aimed only at institutional investors. It also allows the mobilisation of inter-
national finance in a global world where the circulation of capital is getting
increasingly simple. Last, but not least, it promotes greater risk measurement
and management capabilities with innovative valuation models. Crowdfunding
is a concrete way of financial inclusion for smaller companies that have credit
needs largely unsatisfied by the traditional credit system (they are marginal-
ised because they are considered unattractive by traditional banks).
These claims are grossly exaggerated. Fintech cannot reverse the adverse
effects of the destructive policy of ultra-low or negative interest rates, which
discourages savings. Crowdfunding may be viable, but it comes at the cost
of a higher level of counterparty risk. I am not sure how fintech allows the
mobilisation of international finance, and I do not know what the innovative
valuation models are (it sounds like pure rhetoric).
The benefits and costs of fintech 93
The fintech evangelists and fintech firms and promoters make it sound as if
fintech promises milk and honey without anything to worry about. The fact of
the matter is that, like financial innovation and shadow banking, fintech can
bring with it more problems than benefits. In this section, the disadvantages of
fintech are discussed in turn.
The proponents claim that fintech boosts financial stability because of the
diversification away from traditional financial institutions. However, fintech
has a potential negative effect on financial stability in the absence of proper
regulation, particularly when financial literacy is low. In a comprehensive
report entitled Fintech and Financial Stability, the DTCC (2017) notes that
“over the last few years, investment in fintech initiatives has grown exponen-
tially across multiple sectors and could materially impact the financial ecosys-
tem and financial stability – either positively or negatively – over the next five
to ten years”. Assessing the impact of fintech on financial stability must be
done on a case-by-case basis, taking into account how each individual applica-
tion may affect the various dimensions of systemic risk. It may be too early to
judge whether fintech innovations are systemically beneficial or harmful. This
is an issue that will be discussed in detail in Chapter 8.
As is the case with financial stability, fintech can create new risks that under-
mine financial inclusion. Despite enthusiasm about fintech and what it prom-
ises, expansion in the provision of digital financial services will not necessarily
lead to adoption by the general public or boost financial inclusion. Someone
without a bank account is unlikely to know how to use a computer or have one.
This person may have a mobile phone, but the possession of a mobile phone
does not necessarily lead to the abandonment of cash transactions. Sahay et al.
(2020) argue that fintech will boost financial inclusion because digital financial
services are faster, more efficient and typically cheaper than traditional finan-
cial services, which means that they are increasingly reaching lower-income
households and small- and medium-sized enterprises. The problem here is the
implicit assumption that most people have a reasonable degree of computer
literacy, which is not the case. Even people who are familiar with technology
are likely to hesitate before executing a financial transaction online.
94 Fintech
Most people, even those who are literate digitally and computer wise, would
rather explore the options of renewing a deposit by talking to someone face
to face than doing it by using internet banking. Even if the financial institu-
tion is trustworthy, people may be afraid that they miss something, such as
a better option, which for some reason does not show on the screen. They may
not understand something, in which case they want to talk to a real person.
Choosing among possible mortgage offers requires understanding of finan-
cial jargon including LMI premium, revert rate, repayment type, discharge
fees, LMI capitalisation, redraw, repayment holiday, and mortgage portable.
A screen may show five options with different parameters from which a cus-
tomer is asked to choose. If the customer does not understand this jargon, they
would most likely want to talk to someone, even on the mobile phone.
Relevant to this point is the concept of “digital divide”, which refers to the
gap between those who are in a position to benefit from the digital age (also
known as the computer age and new media age) and those who are not. Those
who are not in a position to benefit from the digital age do not benefit from
fintech (hence financial exclusion). People without access to the internet and
other information and communication technologies will be disadvantaged,
as they are unable or less able to obtain digital information or shop online.
Distinction is made between the global digital divide (the divide between
countries or regions or between developing and developed countries) and
the divide within countries, which refers to inequalities between individuals,
households, businesses or regions.
The divide is determined by accessibility and digital (or computer) literacy,
which is defined as the knowledge and ability to use computers and related
technology efficiently. A person (aged 5–69) is considered computer literate if
they can use a computer on their own. Computer literacy differs from digital
literacy, which is the ability to communicate or find information on digital
platforms. A person (aged 5–69) is considered digitally literate if he/she/they
can use a computer, laptop, tablet or smartphone on his/her/their own.
Figures released by the US Department of Education show that about 16%
of US adults are not digitally literate, compared with 23% of adults inter-
nationally. The percentage of US adults who are not digitally literate is not
measurably different from the percentages in the UK, Belgium, Canada and
Germany. The Netherlands and several Nordic countries (Sweden, Norway
and Denmark) have some of the lowest percentages of adults who are not digi-
tally literate, ranging from 11 to 14% (Mamedova and Pawlowski, 2018). The
numbers are higher in the developing world, which casts doubt on the validity
of the proposition that fintech will boost financial inclusion. We will come
back to this issue in Chapter 8.
The benefits and costs of fintech 95
Operational Risk
There are good reasons to believe that fintech will aggravate operational risk.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) defines operational
risk as “the risk arising from inadequate or failed internal processes, people
and systems or from external events” (BCBS, 2004). Mestchian (2003) sug-
gests the decomposition of the definition of the BCBS into four components.
Process risk is produced by inefficiency or ineffectiveness in various business
processes within the firm. People risk arises from employee error, employee
misdeeds, employee unavailability, and inadequate employee development
and recruitment. Technology (or system) risk is caused by system failure, data
quality and integrity issues, inadequate capacity, and poor project manage-
ment. External risk is caused by the actions of external parties (for example,
competitor behaviour, external fraud and regulatory changes) as well as mac-
roeconomic and socioeconomic events.
The BCBS (2004) classifies operational loss events under seven different
categories (internal fraud; external fraud; employment practices and workplace
safety; clients, products and business practices; damage to physical assets;
business disruption and system failures; and execution, delivery and process
management). Table 5.2 shows that, out of the seven operational loss events,
internal fraud (losses due to acts of fraud involving at least one internal party)
and external fraud (perpetrated by an external party) are highly relevant to
fintech. Some of the loss events have no connection, like damage to physical
assets by fire or natural disasters, but it is arguable that the installation of
expensive IT systems makes this type of loss event more costly for fintech
companies. Direct connection is obvious between fintech and system failure.
Therefore, five out of the seven categories are relevant to fintech. For example,
external fraud is often committed via computer hacking, which becomes more
frequent when transactions are conducted online. Problems with hardware
and software, as well as utility outage and disruption, become more serious as
computerisation is intensified. The same goes for errors in data entry.
In Table 5.3, we can see the relevance of fintech to the sources of operational
risk (people risk, process risk and technology risk). These are the sources of
risk of losses resulting from the failure of people, processes and technology.
Technology risk is particularly relevant because fintech is all about technol-
ogy. For a detailed discussion of these classifications, see Moosa (2007, 2008).
Aguayo and Slusarczyk (2020) refer explicitly to the operational risk arising
from the digitisation of banking services. They recognise electronic banking
services to include (i) account statements for a customer; (ii) information on
banking products (deposits, loans, securities); (iii) applications for opening
deposits and obtaining loans and bank cards; (iv) internal transfers to bank
accounts; (v) transfers to accounts in other banks; and (vi) currency con-
96 Fintech
version. On the other hand, they recognise the sources of operational risk as
(i) defects and failures; (ii) loss of data integrity and unauthorised access to
customer data; (iii) violation of a technical system in an information space;
(iv) cyber-attacks; and (v) data integrity and unauthorised access to customer
data. They use the concept of “digital operational risk”, which they attribute to
internal sources (defects or failures) and external sources (fraud risk, techno-
logical risk and cyber risk).
Let us concentrate on fraud in digital finance, which is often referred to
as “digital fraud”. As financial institutions and businesses adopt the latest
systems to make digital payments more secure, the nature of digital fraud
continues to evolve. The new-age computer hacker uses more sophisticated
ways to obtain valuable customer information and login credentials to hack
into accounts. As a result, it has become rather common to lose security
authentication data, to download malicious apps, and to be the victim of credit
card fraud. Chris (2020) refers to the “fraud pandemic”, which is associated
with the “accelerated shift to online banking and mobile transactions”, which
has pushed financial institutions to re-evaluate the resilience of their fraud
management strategies.
Common types of fraud in digital transactions include malware, phishing,
account takeover and card not present (CNP). Malware refers to a computer
program that, when installed on a device, can collect information on financial
The benefits and costs of fintech 97
The ability of the fintech industry to push traditional financial institutions out
of business depends on how much trust people have in fintech companies.
People do not hand their wallets to strangers—likewise, they hesitate before
sharing financial details and personal information with a hitherto-unknown
fintech company using a fancy app. Sahay et al. (2020) warn of “inappropriate
lending practices” by unregulated institutions, which could jeopardise trust.
Wilde (2020) identifies four areas of concern that appear to drive distrust
of fintech companies: data privacy, fear of the unknown, limited regulation
and scandals. He notes that while two of these “trust gaps” are becoming less
potent over time, the other two are “fuelling people’s aversion to fintechs”,
which “could prevent the sector from riding the new wave of digital accelera-
tion”. These areas of concern are assessed on the basis of a survey (conducted
on behalf of Edelman’s Trust Barometer) of over 33,000 individuals annually.
As far as data privacy is concerned, the survey shows that 62% of the
respondents are willing to give up more of their personal data if they believe
that the information can be used responsibly for a good cause and that
data-sharing is simply becoming a part of life. This may be true of sharing
personal information to fight the Coronavirus, but it is not true when it comes
to giving the information to a fintech firm or any other firm seeking to collect
information. Large segments of the population even refuse to give their per-
sonal information for the purpose of fighting the Coronavirus, thinking that the
hidden agenda of the government is to widen mass surveillance. In Australia,
for example, the government failed to convince most people to download
a contact tracing app, forcing the abandonment of the idea.
When it comes to fear of the unknown, 64% of the participants seem to
trust banks, insurance companies and traditional wealth managers, while only
47% trust peer-to-peer and digital payment companies, 48% trust blockchain
and crypto-companies, and 49% trust digital wealth and robo-advisory firms.
In fact, trust in these fintech sub-sectors is even weaker among those in
lower socioeconomic groups, which are supposed to be targeted (and helped)
by fintechs. Wilde (2020) believes that this gap should shrink over time as
he observes “year-on-year improvements in trust levels across all fintech
sub-sectors, as familiarity gradually builds”.
A widespread belief, as far as regulation is concerned, is that technology is
advancing more rapidly than ordinary people can cope with. In 2020, 61% of
the survey participants declared that “the pace of technology is too fast”, which
The benefits and costs of fintech 99
is plausible. The same number of people thought that the British government
does not have adequate understanding of emerging technology to be able to
regulate it effectively. Some 66% of the participants said that technology made
it impossible to know whether or not what they are seeing and hearing is real.
Ambivalence towards technology could override any improvement in familiar-
ity with the leading fintech brands, which would worsen the trust gap overall.
Scandals are not limited to traditional financial institutions. The
millennial-focused brokerage firm Robinhood was in the spotlight follow-
ing the suicide of a 20-year-old customer after seeing a negative balance of
$730,000. The note found on his computer by his parents on 12 June 2020
read as follows: “How was a 20 year old with no income able to get assigned
almost a million dollars’ worth of leverage?” The note, filled with anger
towards Robinhood, also said that he had “no clue” what he was doing as
he was trading options (Klebnikov and Gara, 2020). Another scandal is that
surrounding the spectacular collapse of German fintech firm Wirecard in late
June 2020. Subsequently, the firm was subject to fraud investigations, includ-
ing money laundering and even dealing in the armaments trade (Bright, 2020).
The scandal was so bad that, according to Laurent (2020), it “is making some
old-school bankers feel good about themselves” (it wiped out $12 billion off
the market value of the company in three days).
On the other hand, fintech companies may exploit lack of trust in traditional
banks in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the countless scandals
that followed. Galarza (2020) argues it is nothing new that banks act “in
a manner that leads to distrust of financial services”, that “banks continue to
work for no-one but themselves”, that “banks are doing very little to rebuild
public trust”, and that “banks acting in an untrustworthy manner is something
we have all grown accustomed to”. Fraud is perceived as a cause of the global
financial crisis just as it was a cause of its prelude, the subprime crisis. Rakoff
(2014) reaches the conclusion that “in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the
prevailing view of many government officials was that the crisis was in mate-
rial respects the product of intentional fraud”.
This is why Rooney (2018) argues that “Fintech may be one of the few
industries looking back fondly at what happened to Wall Street after 2008.”
In fact, she attributes the rise of fintech to the “chaos and disruption of the
credit crisis”, which “instilled lack of trust in existing banks and brought on
new regulations and the rise of technologies that would allow scrappy Silicon
Valley start-ups to reshape consumer finance”. The problem is that traditional
financial instructions did not refrain from serious misconduct in the aftermath
of the crisis, as we have witnessed in the forex scandal, the LIBOR manipula-
tion scandal, fraudulent accounting practices (for example, Repo 105), manip-
ulation of the prices of gold and silver, and the Bernie Madoff fiasco, just to
name a few. It is not clear, however, how fintech companies can convince the
100 Fintech
public that they are different from the fraud-ridden traditional financial institu-
tions, now that they have scandals of their own. After all, fintechs are financial
institutions, and financial institutions are notorious for committing fraud and
ripping off customers.
Another aspect of trust is the trust of investors, particularly when a fintech
is floated as a public shareholding company. The fancy names of fintech
companies remind people of the fancy names of the dot-com companies that
went belly up, even though they promised investors huge returns based on
state-of-the-art technology. In a comment on dot-com companies, McCullough
(2018) describes them as follows: “They all vowed to ‘change the world’, had
crazy-high valuations, and were wildly unprofitable.” Just like the dot-com
bubble, the term “fintech bubble” is gaining acceptability, even though some
observers believe that the comparison is misplaced. For the neutral observer,
the resemblance is uncanny.
Fintech companies are in a coalition with governments in the war on cash for
two different reasons. While fintechs see the absence of cash as a source of
business, governments want to monitor our spending patterns in the spirit of
Big Brother and in the name of “national security”, “fighting terrorism” and
“destroying the underground economy”. The war on cash is a major issue
that deserves further scrutiny, and this is why it will be dealt with in detail in
a separate chapter. For now, it suffices to say that the war on cash, in which
fintech companies like PayPal are prominent participants, is a bad by-product
of the rise of fintech. The war on cash, according to Dowd (2017), is intended
to “destroy what is left of our privacy and our freedom”.
cial services to fintech, where computers and robots call the shots, is likely to
create unemployment in the financial sector.
Fintech is capital-deepening technology, in the sense that it boosts the pro-
ductivity of capital more than that of labour. This can be seen in Figure 5.2,
where the isoquant corresponding to a given level of output shifts from I0 to I1.
Unlike what is shown in Figure 5.1, which displays the case of neutral technol-
ogy that affects the productivity of labour and capital equally (represented by
parallel shifts in the isoquants), Figure 5.2 shows that the isoquant shifts while
becoming flatter, as represented by the slope of the tangent to the isoquant. As
a result of the change in slope (which represents the marginal rate of substitu-
tion between labour and capital), it becomes possible to replace increasingly
large amounts of labour by the same amount of technology-improved capital.
This adverse effect on employment is clear—as a matter of fact, one of the pro-
claimed benefits of fintech firms is that they have lower operating costs (pri-
marily because of a small wage bill). The other side of this advantage is that the
growth of fintech is unlikely to be accompanied by growth in employment—it
is not a job-creating industry.
5.6 CONCLUSION
The increasing use of fintech solutions and emerging technologies brings not
only benefits but also risks. Exaggeration in the statement of the benefits of
fintech can be seen clearly in the work of Manyika et al. (2016), who make the
heroic statement that digital financial services contribute to progress towards
meeting the UN’s sustainable development goals. Specifically, they claim
that digital financial inclusion directly supports 10 of the 17 UN sustainable
development goals. These are the objectives of no poverty, zero hunger, good
health and well-being, quality education, gender equality, affordable and
clean energy, decent work, reduced inequalities, peace and justice, and strong
communities. Believing this extraordinary rhetoric amounts to nothing short of
a triumph of wishful thinking over reason.
Fintech will reduce poverty allegedly because poor people and small
businesses are able to invest in their future and because more government aid
reaches the poor as leakage is reduced. Nothing is said about how the poor
invest in their future when they are poor, which means that they have nothing
to invest. Fintech will lead to zero hunger because farmers are better able to
invest during planting seasons and smooth consumption between harvests
and because more food aid reaches the poor as leakage is reduced. Nothing
is said about how that is supposed to happen. Fintech will lead to good health
and well-being because of increased government health spending as leakage
is reduced and because financial inclusion for women can boost spending on
healthcare. Again, nothing is said about how that is supposed to happen. In any
case, when governments have more money, they do not spend it on healthcare
but rather on wars and spy agencies in the name of “national security”.
Fintech will lead to quality education, allegedly because “digital payments
to teachers reduce leakage and absenteeism”. Fintech will provide affordable
and clean energy because “mobile pay-as-you-go schemes create access to
clean energy” and because “better targeted subsidies increase use of renewa-
ble energy”. Fintech will lead to decent work and economic growth because
a greater pool of savings boosts lending capacity and because data history
of the poor and small businesses reduces lending risks. Fintech will reduce
inequality because financial inclusion gives greatest benefit to very poor
people and because more government aid becomes available as fraud and
theft are reduced. This is utter nonsense that does not deserve dignifying with
a comment, but it proves that economists can act as “hired guns”.
It is because of the negative consequences of fintech that a number of
fintech consumer protection initiatives have been launched. For example,
the Responsible Finance Forum has issued guidelines for responsible fintech
(https://responsiblefinanceforum.org/investor-guidelines/). The guidelines
104 Fintech
105
106 Fintech
of business for them, never mind that it represents intrusion on privacy and
violation of human rights, the right of ordinary people to use cash as a medium
of exchange and store of value.
Three major players in the war on cash are identified by Desjardins (2017).
The initiator is the government, which is motivated by the proposition that
the elimination of cash will make it easier to track all types of transactions,
including those conducted by criminals. The enemy, according to Desjardins,
is “criminals and terrorists” because large denominations of bank notes make
illegal transactions easier to settle and anonymous. The third player is repre-
sented by those caught in the crossfire, ordinary people, because the coercive
elimination of cash will have potential repercussions on the economy and
civil liberties. For the sceptics, ordinary people are not caught in the crossfire,
but they are also the enemy, who should be subjected to mass surveillance
and surrender their will and livelihood to the government and financial insti-
tutions. Relevant to this discussion is the role of the government as seen by
Lysander Spooner, an American abolitionist and legal theorist, who is quoted
by Whitehead (2020) as saying that “the government, like a highwayman, says
to a man: Your money, or your life”. White (2018) argues that the phrase “war
on cash” suggests a parallel to the “war on drugs”.
In a comment on Desjardins (2017) Ronald West argues that the real enemy
is the governments and their masters (bankers) and that most of the people
(sheep) assist these pirates in carrying out their evil agenda, by using their
monetary products such as debit cards, credit cards, PayPal, e-transfers, etc.
For the likes of Visa, Microsoft and Vodafone, which provide the technical
infrastructure for digital money transfers, cash is a nuisance because they (Visa
et al.) do not generate profit and collect data from cash transactions. Digitised
transactions represent lucrative business and provide a boost for the market
power of these companies.
The war on cash is not fought by governments only, but rather by an
alliance or a collation of beneficiaries or potential beneficiaries, enablers
and cheerleaders. Scott (2016) suggests that banks, governments, credit card
companies and “fintech evangelists” want us to believe that a cashless future
is inevitable and good. Banks and credit card companies benefit from the war
on cash because when people cannot use cash, they will pay by using debit and
credit cards. Banks will also benefit by closing down branches and removing
ATMs, thereby saving the salaries of bank tellers. The “fintech evangelists”
are cheerleaders who promote the war on cash because the fintech industry will
benefit by providing alternative means of payment, such as mobile payments
and digital wallets. Thus, we are told (by the beneficiaries) that a “cashless
The war on cash 107
future” is both desirable and inevitable at some point. In truth, such a state of
affairs is neither desirable, nor inevitable.
A cashless society is portrayed (by the beneficiaries) as significant progress,
something fashionable, modern, convenient, secure and ideal. Anyone who
opposes the idea of a cashless society is reactionary, old-fashioned and does
not live in the modern world of technology. Yves Mersch, member of the exec-
utive board of the ECB, classifies advocates of the cashless society into three
groups (Lepecq, 2020). The first group are the “alchemists” who want to over-
come the restrictions that the zero lower bound (ZLB) imposes on monetary
policy. The second group is that of the law-and-order fanatics. The third group
is represented by fintech firms, which anticipate major business opportunities
arising from the abolition of cash. The concern, according to Scott (2016), is
“about a potential future world in which we’d have to report our every eco-
nomic move to a bank, and the effect this could have on marginalised people”.
He goes on to say that a cashless society effectively means “ask-your-banks
-for-permission-to-pay society”. McRee (2020) argues that the war on cash
is about banks and a power-hungry government wanting to “confiscate your
cash, steal your liberty and track every dollar you spend”.
While governments have launched the war on cash for the purpose of mass
surveillance, financial institutions (including fintech companies) promote and
participate in the same war because it makes their business more profitable.
Gordon (2016) examines the participation of Visa and PayPal, two beneficiar-
ies and promoters, by saying, “major companies like Visa have been keen to
inform cardholders through a recent campaign that they can ‘make contactless
payment with confidence and feel liberated from the need to carry cash’”.
Andriotis (2017) tells a story about Visa offering small merchants thousands
of dollars in return for refraining from accepting cash (in the name of liber-
ating people from cash). In July 2017, the company unveiled the initiative as
“part of a broader effort to steer Americans away from using old-fashioned
paper money”. Visa announced that it would give $10,000 per piece to up to
50 restaurants and food vendors to pay for their technology and marketing
costs, as long as the businesses pledge to abandon cash. We have to bear in
mind that Visa and other credit card companies make money out of credit card
transactions by charging commissions and even more by charging those who
do not pay on time at a rate in excess of 20%. It makes one wonder why the
low interest rate policies adopted by central banks worldwide are not applied
to interest rates on credit card balances.
The role of a prominent fintech firm, PayPal, is examined by Gordon
(2016), who tells us how “PayPal plastered cities and TV with adverts” to
convey the message that “new money doesn’t need a wallet”, along with
a video proclaiming that “new money isn’t paper, it’s progress”. In July 2020,
PayPal executives announced the death of cash as the company posted record
108 Fintech
earnings. According to CNBC, PayPal CFO (John Rainey) said that “the death
of cash has arrived” (Stankiewicz, 2019). Company executives said that the
society had reached an “inflection point” when it comes to the “death of cash”
and noted that 70% of consumers now fear for their health when it comes to
paying in stores (Lepecq, 2020). It is easy to detect the language of fear, which
is apparently not exclusive to governments trying to pass some draconian
legislation.
In 2017, another PayPal CEO, Dan Schulman, told CNBC that “the digital
revolution is making transactions cheaper and easier for millions of people
worldwide and will eventually push out traditional forms of payment, like
cash”. As if the language of fear is not enough, he plays the financial inclusion
card by referring to the plight of “2 billion people in the world that live outside
the financial system, and the things that we take for granted — paying a bill,
cashing a check, sending money to a loved one” (Gurdus, 2017). Dan’s only
concern is that those people cannot pay with a phone or a chip underneath the
skin, but I doubt very much that he is prepared to donate his bonus to a charity
that looks after the world’s poor.
Häring (2018) tells a story about a 2005 conference on payments, where
representatives of MasterCard promoted a “new generation of card solutions”,
with which they wanted to “go to war” (that is, using the new generation of
solutions as a weapon to defeat the enemy, which is cash). The Visa represent-
atives were confident that they would “win the war on cash” and “eliminate
cash from the financial system”. In a report on the conference, Adams (2006)
suggested that “while banks and governments have a shared desire to eliminate
cash, governments prefer to let the card companies take the initiative, because
they are afraid that the public would not like the war on cash.” In the same
conference, an official of the European Union declared his approval of the war
on cash and pleaded with card companies to reduce prices for card payments
in order to emerge victorious (Häring, 2018). Alexander Labak, President of
MasterCard Europe, said in a speech on “the future beyond cash” that the war
on cash had to be won and would be won, because “these old-fashioned coins
and bills were so expensive for society” (Labak, 2005). According to Häring
(2018), “the EU-Commission assisted with questionable calculations about
the high cost of cash, while the leading US-consultancy McKinsey provided
the rationale for the war on cash by presenting a study according to which the
profits of the financial industry would increase massively in the absence of
cash.” That is true, but who will pay for the increase in profit? In Chapter 5, we
saw how Manyika et al. (2016) exaggerated the benefits of fintech by making
unrealistic and ludicrous claims about how fintech is going to save humanity.
That was a publication of the McKinsey Global Institute, which is the research
arm of McKinsey & Company.
The war on cash 109
In 2017, the IMF came to the rescue by suggesting that the decline of
cash should appear to be a “gradual and unplanned side-effect of unrelated
measures and developments”. The Fund advised governments to let the
private sector go ahead, because “direct official action would cause popular
resistance” (Kireyev, 2017). The IMF recommended that government action
should, at least at the beginning, appear to be “benign”, taking the form of
phasing out large denomination notes and allowing generous upper limits for
cash payments. The Fund did not shy away from recommending deception by
suggesting that “measures against cash should be presented to be unplanned
and independent” and that these measures should be “closely coordinated with
the private sector”. The US consulting firm McKinsey & Company (2013) also
advised governments, banks and payment providers to co-operate in a “sys-
tematic war on cash”, suggesting a list of “harmless-seeming steps for govern-
ments to take”. These steps include the requirement that merchants accept card
payments without passing on the cost to their customers. McKinsey also sug-
gested that cash users should be confronted with the true cost of their payment
methods, including all indirect costs. To make the use of cash more expensive,
“the standards for security and maintenance in the cash circuit should be made
more stringent”. Well, using cash does not bring about a surcharge as is the
case with credit cards (let alone the interest charges on delayed payments). If
this is not a conspiracy against ordinary people, I do not know what a conspir-
acy is. And it is a conspiracy fact, not a conspiracy theory.
The coalition of the willing fighting against cash is formally represented by
the “Better Than Cash Alliance” (BTCA), which according to Häring (2018)
“has the goal of replacing cash by digital payments on a global scale”, suggest-
ing that “this Alliance is doing this with the explicit support of the government
of the 20 most powerful countries” (in reference to the G-20 countries). Häring
asserts that “the term ‘war on cash’ was coined not by critics, but by key
members of this Better Than Cash Alliance, as a rallying cry in their drive
to increase their profits”. The Alliance was founded in 2012 by the Bill &
Melinda Gates Foundation and the Omidyar Network of eBay founder Pierre
Omidyar, as well as Citibank and Visa. The US government was involved via
the development agency USAID, which belongs to the State Department. The
United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), based in New York,
provides the secretariat and the offices (and of course the good global image).
MasterCard was not among the founders of the Alliance, which Häring
(2018) explains by suggesting that “they needed a bit more cooling-off of their
fierce commercial campaign against cash, lest the press and the public might
develop doubts about the strictly altruistic goals of the new organization.”
With a delay of one year, as Häring puts it, “MasterCard joined this public–
private partnership of Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Washington”. However,
he refers to a “strong indication that MasterCard was closely involved already
110 Fintech
what it takes to serve the noble cause. Liberating the poor from cash sounds
like the Bush–Blair liberation of the people of Iraq by bombing their towns,
villages and neighbourhoods back to the Stone Age.
The role played by MasterCard and Visa is emphasised by Häring (2018),
who argues that the two credit card companies and their partners have been
openly pushing ahead with an “ostensibly well-meaning global conspiracy
to eliminate cash”. To that end, they have been running global marketing
campaigns to tell people that it is foolish and old-fashioned to use cash and
how modern and convenient it is to have someone else manage the payments
digitally (for the sake of humanity, of course). This sounds the same as the
campaign launched by the tobacco companies to convince young people (par-
ticularly women) that it is “cool” to smoke.
Other enablers, cheerleaders and conspirators are international organi-
sations. The World Bank and IMF, the standard-setting bodies (such as the
Financial Action Task Force, Capital Markets and Payments Infrastructure
Group, and Basel Committee for Banking Supervision) as well as economic
development agencies (such as USAID), are also participants in what Häring
(2018) calls the “stealth-war of the G20-partnership against cash”. These
institutions use their regulatory and financial power to serve the goals of the
BTCA. This explains the bewildering observation that the governments of
very poor countries, who should have other priorities, make the move towards
a cashless society a priority. International organisations implicitly or explicitly
threaten these governments to do what they are told or else.
The role of fintech in the war on cash and the move to a cashless society is
exemplified in the case of Sweden, arguably the first cashless society in the
world. In a tourism promotion piece (https://sweden.se/life/society/a-cashless
-society), it is stated explicitly that the move towards a cashless society is
driven by fintechs, many of which were founded in Sweden. One example
is Klarna, a payment system start-up founded in 2005 that has millions of
customers globally. Another is iZettle, which makes small cheap card payment
terminals that allow retailers to take payments by connecting it to a dedicated
app on a smartphone or tablet. Some Swedes have gone as far as the science
fiction exercise of getting a microchip implanted in their hands, so that they
can pay by simply waving a hand. What kind of welfare improvement does
this kind of technology bring? In what way is this extravaganza a life changer
compared with taking out a real wallet and paying by cash? And in what way
will something like this make the poor less poor and the financially excluded
financially included?
112 Fintech
Two reasons can be suggested for why governments are leading the war on
cash. The first is Big Brother, the urge to spy on people, which has become
a common pastime for governments in “democratic” countries. The second is
that corrupt politicians drive the war on cash as a favour to the financial oligar-
chy, so that they are rewarded with lucrative jobs (or at least exorbitant fees for
speeches) when they are out of public service. And, as we have seen before, the
governments of poor countries do it because international organisations and
development agencies use carrots and sticks against them. For example, the
Nigerian government introduced a tax on cash withdrawals above a daily limit,
a ban on unlicensed cash courier services, and a prohibition of banks cashing
large third‐party cheques.
The main policy tactics (weapons) used by governments in the war on cash
are identified by White (2018) as follows: (i) abolishing high‐denomination
banknotes, (ii) placing a maximum legal value on cash payments, (iii) requir-
ing declarations from any party carrying a cash amount above a specified value
across the national border, and (iv) requiring banks to report to authorities any
cash deposits or withdrawals in amounts above (or suspiciously near) a speci-
fied value. He also refers to the additional weapon of a tax on cash withdrawals
above a threshold amount, lowering the threshold at which reporting a cash
transaction is mandatory or at which paying in cash is simply illegal. In just the
last few years, Italy made cash transactions over €1,000 illegal; Switzerland
proposed banning cash payments in excess of 100,000 francs; Russia banned
cash transactions over $10,000; Spain banned cash transactions over €2,500;
Mexico made cash payments of more than 200,000 pesos illegal; Uruguay
banned cash transactions over $5,000; and France made cash transactions over
€1,000 illegal, down from the previous limit of €3,000.
Governments around the world have been issuing laws and regulations to
prohibit or restrict cash payments by making them harder, more expensive
and legally suspicious. In the extreme, the use of cash could lead to a prison
sentence. Häring (2018) argues that “governments of all colors, from Sweden
to Saudi Arabia, are working together in harmony with one another and with
the leading private corporations of the IT, telecommunications and finance
sectors in a global public–private partnership against cash”. This is happen-
ing while governments are gradually forcing whole populations into large
government-run biometric data banks. Government action against cash is truly
global. In this section we look at some examples of what governments have
been doing to accomplish the ultimate objective of a cashless society.
The war on cash 113
India
The Indian government has taken one of the most visible actions against the
use of cash by removing the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes (roughly 86% of the
currency in circulation). This decision was taken by Indian Prime Minister
Modi in November 2016, with only a 4-hour warning. In theory, people were
allowed to exchange high-denomination notes up to 4,000 per person, but the
rest had to be routed through a bank account in a country where 50% of the
population do not have bank accounts. Deaths were reported as some people
committed suicide, whereas others were elderly people waiting in long queues
to exchange notes (Desjardins, 2017). Speaking in his monthly address on
national radio, Modi said that “the government understands millions have
been affected by the ban on 500 and 1,000 rupee notes”, but he defended the
action and advocated a transition to a cashless society, urging small traders and
daily wage earners to embrace digital payments (Osborne, 2016). The currency
shortage caused enormous hardship for the cash‐dependent unbanked people
who comprise half of the Indian population. As a result of the draconian action,
workers who are normally paid in cash went unpaid, and farmers were unable
to sell their produce. In the critical words of Norbert Häring (2017), “Narendra
Modi performed the great and brutal experiment of starving the whole of India
of cash for months”. White (2018) describes the action as follows: “a policy
ostensibly intended to inflict losses on tax evaders and criminals imposed
severe collateral damage on honest users of currency”.
Europe
In 2016, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it would stop
issuing €500 notes, and distribution stopped entirely in 2018, in a move that
was allegedly intended to curb fraud and money laundering. Another justifi-
cation is that cash makes it easy for people to withdraw large sums of money
from their banks, which can be a cause of bank runs in a fractional reserve
banking system, and that was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis.
The real objective, however, is to make it difficult to avoid negative interest
rates (for example, Hayes, 2020). The problem is not cash, but the fraudulent
scheme of fractional reserve banking, which allows banks to create money out
of thin air and charge interest on it.
White (2018) describes restrictions on cash payments in 12 of the 28 EU
member countries. In Italy the maximum allowable consumer‐to‐business
or business‐to‐business cash payment by residents is currently €2,999.99; in
France and Spain the limit is €1,000; in Greece it is a mere €500. In early 2016
the German finance ministry proposed a national limit of €5,000, which was
met with strong political resistance from defenders of financial privacy.
114 Fintech
Australia
In 2016, the Australian government entertained the idea of banning the use
of the $100 note as part of a “crackdown on all but small cash payments”
(Martin, 2016). The move was inspired by similar moves in India and Europe.
This, however, is nothing compared with what could have happened had the
government got its way.
In August 2019, it was announced that Australians could face two-year
jail sentences and fines of up to $25,200 under proposed draconian laws
that limit the use of cash to $10,000, under the pretext of fighting the black
economy, including tax evasion, money laundering and other crimes. In
response, Senator Pauline Hanson said the following on her Facebook page:
“Effectively, if you are a person who keeps cash and uses it to buy a new small
car, for example, you will face the real threat of two years in jail and a fine that
would likely exceed the value of the vehicle” (Khadem, 2019). In December
2020, the bill was killed in the Senate, thanks to some brave senators from
small parties that refused to go with the coalition of the government and
opposition (the two-party dictatorship). Several federal MPs and stakeholders
raised concerns that the law would create an “Orwellian state” and push people
into the “clutches of the banks”. However, Khadem (2020) warns, the limit on
the use of cash could be revived at some stage and “the now-defunct law could
return in some other iteration once the COVID-19 pandemic has passed”. It
seems that war on cash has become a personal crusade of Prime Minister Scott
Morrison and his Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, both of whom are prominent
members of the Reagan–Thatcher fan club.
Greece
In Greece, citizens must declare all cash over €15,000 held in safes and other
non-bank storage (talk about civil liberties). In June 2015, it was revealed that
the government and banks had agreed that people would not be allowed to
withdraw cash from safe deposit boxes. The plan was to seize the cash stored
in these boxes and compensate their losses by crediting an equal sum of euros
to their increasingly inaccessible deposits (Salerno, 2015a). Although this
measure was intended to curb cash outflows, it is likely that it was dictated by
the ECB, perhaps as a move to restrict cash transactions.
Norway
In January 2016, Norway’s largest bank, DNB, proposed to stop using cash
as a means of payment in the country. According to DNB’s executive, Trond
Bentestuen, “more than half of all cash transfers in the country are made
The war on cash 115
without the banks’ control, and so could be used for illegal purposes” (Lyon,
2016). DNB and Norway’s second-largest bank, Nordea, have largely stopped
keeping cash in their branch offices. The Norwegian Hospitality Association
has lobbied to abolish consumers’ right to pay in cash at all shops and restau-
rants since as far back as 2013. Finance Ministry spokesman Tore Vamraak
said, although the government saw where DNB was coming from, “we have no
plans to change the law in this area now”, because “there are many, including
the elderly, who still want to use cash and that must be allowed”. Vamraak
added, “it isn’t unproblematic for privacy to make every transaction traceable”
(The Local, 2016). In April 2017, the Norwegian government announced that
it would introduce a limit on cash payments at NOK40,000 to combat money
laundering by purchasing expensive objects (Wijnen, 2017).
Singapore
In 2014, the government announced that Singapore would stop issuing $10,000
notes, one of the world’s most valuable banknotes, in an attempt to tighten
its anti-money laundering controls. The Monetary Authority of Singapore
(MAS) said, given the “risks associated with large value cash transactions and
high-value notes”, it will stop producing the $10,000 note, even though those
already in circulation would remain legal tender indefinitely (Reuters, 2014).
On 3 November 2020, MAS announced that it would stop issuing $1,000 notes
from 1 January 2021 “to reduce money laundering and terrorism financing
risks” (CNA, 2020).
Sweden
In 2015, Swedish banks began removing ATMs even in remote rural areas.
According to Credit Suisse, the rule of thumb in Scandinavia is the follow-
ing: “If you have to pay in cash, something is wrong”. Commenting on the
move, Salerno (2015b) said that “the Swedish government abetted by its
fractional-reserve banking system is moving relentlessly toward a completely
cashless economy”.
The US
While a cash payment ceiling has not yet been introduced in the US, any
business that receives $10,000 in cash from a single customer must report it
to the tax authorities within 15 days on IRS/FinCEN Form 8300. The Internal
Revenue Service (IRS) shares the information with the Treasury’s Financial
Crimes Enforcement Network. Businesses that must often file Form 8300
include sellers of expensive cars, boats, aircraft, jewellery and furniture, as
116 Fintech
well as the providers of up-market services such as law firms, real estate agen-
cies, insurance companies and travel agencies.
Under the Currency and Foreign Transaction Reporting Act (CFTRA), any
party (an individual or a group travelling together) who brings $10,000 or more
of cash (or travellers’ cheques or other negotiable instruments) into the country
must declare the sum at the point of entry. Failure to make a declaration makes
cash subject to seizure. Under CFTRA (also known as the “Bank Secrecy
Act”) financial institutions are required to file a “Currency Transaction
Report” (CTR) with FinCEN for any deposit, withdrawal, currency swap,
or transfer involving $10,000, irrespective of whether or not the institution
employees handling it consider the transaction suspicious. A “Suspicious
Activity Report” must be filed for any activity perceived to be suspicious if it
involves $3,000 or more in cash. Subdividing deposits or withdrawals in order
to avoid triggering a CTR is itself a crime, called “structuring”.
The US government has confiscated tens of thousands of dollars from
people who committed the “crime” of making repeated deposits or withdraw-
als below the $10,000 threshold. White (2018) refers to the notorious case of
dairy farmers Randy and Karen Sowers, who frequently deposited cash income
from sales at farmers’ markets. In February 2012, Treasury officials confis-
cated $29,500 from the couple, charging them with structuring and without
suspecting them of any other crime. In 2015, the Maryland dairy farmer said
the following in front of a congressional subcommittee: “I was really taken
aback by that. I couldn’t believe… they would just come in and take my money
with no prior notice” (Sullum, 2016). This is not supposed to happen in the
“land of the free”, where in March 2009 there was uproar against proposals to
confiscate (or tax) the bonuses paid to the executives of the failed insurance
company, AIG, out of bail-out money.
Economists are notorious for providing intellectual justification for any policy
to support the views of the highest bidder. They also tend to put ideology
before economics and manufacture evidence (by using the con art of econo-
metrics) to support the propaganda machine. Some journalists who write about
economic matters do the same. For one reason or another, some economists
and journalists are very enthusiastic about the banning of cash, providing
intellectual (or at least articulate) justification for the actions taken by the
coalition of the willing. In addition to the “hired guns”, propagandists include
the beneficiaries themselves such as credit card and fintech companies that will
profit from the removal of cash by providing alternative means of payment. In
this section, some of these arguments and justifications are examined.
The war on cash 117
for everyone else, for law-abiding people who find high‐denomination notes
convenient now and again for completely legal and non-controversial purposes
and for carrying vacation cash compactly.
As for boosting tax revenue, Rogoff should also consider other avenues of
tax reform, including the plugging of loopholes in the tax code that allow cor-
porations and the super-rich to avoid taxes (or pay a small fraction of what they
owe the community). Defending the war on cash on the basis that it enables
the implementation of negative interest rates is counterproductive because this
policy is useless at best and destructive at worst. Actually, it is even criminal,
as risk-averse pensioners watch their savings evaporate, particularly under
high inflation, which governments denied until recently.
Another critic of Rogoff is Joppich (2016), who notes that, “in reality, cash
represents freedom – a simple freedom that millions of people around the
world don’t enjoy while we take it for granted”. A cash-hater admits that cash
was “no doubt, a brilliant and innovative new technology several thousands
of years ago”, but “today it’s simply been superseded” (Chu, 2016). This
cash-hater argues that “cash is a pain” because we have to look for coins to put
in a parking meter and there’s the very inconvenience of carrying coins. Well,
some people derive utility by collecting coins to give to their grandchildren.
More seriously, however, when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, people were
caught by surprise as all credit cards issued in Kuwait were suspended and
bank accounts became inaccessible. The people who suffered less were those
who had stacks of cash. Kuwaitis who were abroad at the time suffered, since
their credit cards were no longer valid. Chu likens the invention of contactless
payments (which is a mere extravaganza) to the great invention of indoor
plumbing. This reminds me of a story about an eminent economist, Robert
Gordon, who would show a picture of a mobile phone (which is used for
contactless payments) and another picture of a flush toilet and ask the simple
question: which one are you willing to give up if you have to? I am sure that
Mr Chu would give up his mobile phone and choose to pay by cash rather than
give up his toilet, which is not contactless.
Arguing on the same lines as Rogoff is Sands (2016). He talks about
tax evasion that undercuts the financing of public services and distorts the
economy, as if tax evasion is exclusive to those who use cash, but not to those
who stash their money in tax havens. He talks about “criminal activities from
drug trafficking and human smuggling to theft and fraud”, when criminals have
started using cryptocurrencies that will presumably replace cash. He talks about
corruption, which corrodes public institutions and warps decision-making, as
if corruption will disappear in a cashless society. A corrupt politician is not
necessarily rewarded with cash but with a lucrative private-sector job after
leaving public service, a big cheque in return for a lousy speech (probably on
the beauty of removing cash) or for “consultancy”. The available evidence
The war on cash 121
does not support the proposition that bribery is linked to cash. For example,
the ratio of currency to GDP of Japan in 2017 was 20.44%, yet it is less corrupt
than India. In Nigeria, it was 1.85% in 2016, which is much more corrupt than
India (Drishti, 2019).
Sands also talks about “terrorist finance”, which “sustains organisations that
spread death and fear”. However, if criminals can use cryptos or diamonds or
gold, so can terrorists. Sands claims credit for a “different approach” to make
life like hell for the “bad guys”, which is “to eliminate high denomination,
high value currency notes, such as the €500 note, the $100 bill, the CHF1,000
note and the £50 note”. I am not sure what is “new” about this “approach”.
Taylor (2016) responds to Sands by suggesting that “the case against big bills
isn’t an easy one to prove with ironclad systematic evidence, because no one
really knows where the big bills are”. Taylor suggests that “it’s easy enough
to come up with reasons why some law-abiding people, whether in the US
or in countries beset by economic or political instability, might want to hold
a stash of $100 or €500 notes” and “it’s also easy to suggest ways that if the
large-denomination bills were phased out, other stores of value like diamonds
or gold or anonymous electronic money like Bitcoin might take its place”.
A specific argument against the removal of the $100 note is put forward by
Koping (2016), who looks at the international status of the dollar. He argues
that removing the $100 note reduces the effectiveness of the “universal backup
monetary system” provided by the US. The phenomenon of currency substi-
tution, whereby the dollar is used instead of or alongside the local currency,
is observed clearly in countries experiencing turmoil and/or rampant inflation.
Whether the objective of the war on cash is to remove large-denomination
banknotes or circulating currency altogether depends on whether, overall, the
benefits of doing so exceed the costs. This is why Lastrapes (2018) believes
that the matter should be considered in terms of costs and benefits, whether
or not it leads to a net improvement in social welfare. He presents a general
equilibrium model to calculate the costs and benefits and finds that a currency
ban might affect overall welfare negatively, which is consistent with the con-
jectured cautions of Camera (2001).
Credit cards and other forms of digital payments provide security because once
cash is stolen it has gone for ever. With credit cards, consumers are given much
greater legal protection and can only be held liable for a minimal amount if
they have been victims of fraud or theft. Scott (2016) comments on the safety
argument by saying that “having your wallet cash stolen pales in comparison
to having your savings obliterated in a digital account hack”. Dowd (2017)
argues that cash involves state-of-the-art anti-counterfeiting technology, which
makes it more difficult to replicate or corrupt than digital currency. Consumers
are given protection against credit card fraud only if they can prove that they
have fallen victims to fraud without any negligence on their part. Banks and
credit card companies do a good job of finding loopholes in the statements of
the victims and detecting negligence, in which case the victims bear the losses.
Credit cards allow people to pay for what they could actually afford, but not
with the money they had on hand. The problem is that, unlike cash, credit
cards make it easier to spend beyond affordability and end up in a situation
of financial distress. The inventor of the Diners Club card, Frank McNamara,
was embarrassed because he had forgotten his wallet (and the cash therein) in
another suit, which gave him the idea of credit card. Well, anyone could easily
forget the credit card in another suit. After all, cash and cards are typically kept
in the same wallet.
There are costs to keeping money safe, such as on-site safes and secure trans-
portation from the business location to the bank. Cash exposes businesses to
the possibility of embezzlement, theft and robberies. That is right, but it could
be worse when the whole bank account is hacked.
The proponents of the war on cash use this argument quite often, as we have
seen. The underlying argument is that catching the bad guys and obstructing
criminal transactions would be easier if cash was not available and thus
financial surveillance was more complete. A counter-argument put forward by
Häring (2018) is that this also means confiscating citizens’ rights for privacy
and other freedoms—actually, the very right to store wealth as cash. In this
case, making life difficult for criminals may imply doing away with freedom
The war on cash 123
and even democracy. He also argues that criminal activity will not be stopped
in the absence of cash, suggesting that “the mafia, the ultra-rich and large
corporations employ banks and specialized law firms to transfer digital money
into tax havens in a way that ownership is concealed”. Criminals already use
forged documents and other tricks to insert dirty money in large volumes into
the legal banking system, sometimes aided by banks.
Scott (2016) debunks the argument that “criminals use cash, it fuels the
shadow economy, it is unsafe, and it facilitates tax evasion” by suggesting
that “criminals use many things that we keep – like cars – and fighting crime
doesn’t take priority over maintaining other social goods like civil liberties”.
He describes the “shadow economy” as a “derogatory term used by elites to
describe the economic activities of people they neither understand nor care
about”. As for tax evasion, he says the following: “if you care about tax justice,
start with the mass corporate tax avoidance facilitated by the formal banking
sector”. Sarcastically, Forbes (2016) gives examples of the “criminal activity”
that will be stopped by banning the use of cash, including “purchasing salt,
sugar, big bottles of soda and Big Macs”. In a comment on Desjardins (2017),
Ronald West disputes the claim that the war on cash is against criminals,
arguing that “anyone who believes that this project is to rein in the terrorists
and drug dealers, is truly and duly duped”. The criminals will always find ways
to launder their money, such as using gold and silver or other valuables, barter,
or creating their own script or currency or their own bank.
Monetary Policy
Central banks can use ultra-low or negative interest rate policies to encourage
spending and boost economic activity. These policies cannot be implemented
when people have the option of withdrawing and storing cash. It is strange that
the war on cash can be justified in terms of destructive monetary policy that is
pursued primarily for the benefit of depository institutions. White (2018) sees
a negative interest rate policy as “unlegislated tax on money‐holders, without
any means to escape into untaxed media of exchange”.
It is ludicrous to suggest that monetary policy will be enhanced in the
absence of cash, unless we are talking about the reckless policy of ultra-low/
negative interest rates. In the absence of cash, the currency and reserve ratios
as instruments of monetary policy will disappear, and so will the monetary
base. As a result, the central bank will lose its ability to control the money
supply. Costa and De Grauwe (2001) examine monetary policy in a cashless
society and conclude that “the central bank will lose its traditional instruments
of monetary policy” because “standing facilities and open market operations
will become ineffective as instruments to control the interest rate and the
money stock”. This is problematic because “in a cashless society where all the
124 Fintech
money is privately supplied, there is no clear and reliable mechanism that ties
down the price level”. In a cashless society, monetary policy will be lost as an
economic stabilisation tool.
Banks can reduce operating costs by not having to handle cash. They can make
more money when people pay with credit cards, particularly if they fail to pay
on time. However, the interest of banks should not be put above the interest
of the whole society. The proponents of the war on cash tell us that banknotes
make it easy for people to withdraw large sums of money from their banks,
which can be a cause of bank runs in a fractional reserve banking system.
What has happened to freedom, the freedom of holding one’s own cash under
the mattress? Why are banks allowed to run a Ponzi scheme called “fractional
reserve banking”, then complain when people exercise their legitimate right to
access their own money? I wonder who is running the show, but I am inclined
to think that it is the financial oligarchy.
Banks will have more power in creating money out of thin air because in
a cashless society, the imposition of cash and reserve requirements will no
longer be feasible, and the money supply will consist entirely of bank accounts.
Banks will be able to create deposits and give loans as they wish without being
subject to policy requirements as the central bank will be impotent. Yes, killing
cash provides an enormous benefit for banks, but it is not so for the economy.
Banks typically have procyclical behaviour, which will be augmented in
a cashless society. One should expect more inflation and frequent boom–bust
cycles in a cashless society.
digital means of payment. Due to the pandemic, cash is portrayed not just as
a danger to society and to national security, but also as a direct health hazard
with potentially fatal consequences.
The International Currency Association (ICA, 2020) expressed its concern
about the rise of misinformation regarding the use of cash. To counter misin-
formation about the risk posed by cash, the ICA published a list of statements
that show otherwise. A study of the Bank for International Settlements quotes
scientists as saying that the probability of transmission via banknotes is low
when compared with other frequently touched objects (Auer et al., 2020).
The authors of the report make it explicit that “to date, there are no known
cases of COVID-19 transmission via banknotes or coins” and “it is unclear if
such transmission is material compared with person-to-person transmission
or transmission through other objects or physical proximity”. The Bank of
England has noted that “the risk posed by handling a polymer note is no greater
than touching any other common surfaces such as handrails, doorknobs or
credit cards” (Brignall et al., 2020).
While there has been a decline in the use of cash as a means of payment
during the pandemic, we have witnessed unprecedented growth in the overall
demand for cash. On 9 April 2020 the Sydney Morning Herald reported that
“Australians did not just hoard loo paper and tinned tomatoes as the coronavi-
rus pandemic spread through the country last month – they started stockpiling
cash” (Wright, 2020). During the pandemic, Lepecq (2020) points out, con-
sumers paid more with digital instruments, but they stored more in cash. This
is a global phenomenon that debunks the myth of the death of cash.
Physical cash is readily available and does not incur any additional charges for
customers. For households and small businesses, cash is the most cost-efficient
payment method, because paying by cash does not involve additional charges
by banks and payment service providers. Dowd (2017) lists the benefits of cash
as, (i) it is a very efficient way of handling small transactions; (ii) it is costless
and easy to use; and (iii) it does not need a password.
126 Fintech
For many people, cash is the only viable payment method. This means that
businesses that refrain from accepting cash exclude and risk losing customers.
Cashless transactions can be problematic for people who rely on cash such as
the poor, disabled and elderly. Electronic transactions require a bank account
and familiarity with payment technology at a time when most people in
impoverished regions and countries are underbanked or unbanked. Refusing to
accept cash is a form of discrimination against the least well-off economically.
Häring (2018) argues that “cash is also a very inclusive payment technology”.
Dowd (2017) warns that banning cash threatens to cause widespread economic
damage, with a devastating impact on the most vulnerable in our society.
According to White (2018), policies that limit cash use (or otherwise compel
people instead to pay through banks or credit card companies) harm the
livelihood of small business people who rely on cash sales (particularly those
serving the unbanked or operating in outdoor markets) and reduce the welfare
of their (mostly poor) customers by raising transaction costs. Desjardins
(2017) suggests that “rapid demonetization has violated people’s rights to life
and food” and refers to the case of India where the removal of the 500 and
1,000 rupee notes caused human tragedies, including death, denial of medical
treatment, and inability to access food. Demonetisation also hurts people and
small businesses that make their livelihoods in the informal sectors of the
economy.
Following the decision of some New York City restaurants, such as
Sweetgreen and Dig Inn, to stop accepting cash for payment, legislation was
introduced to penalise such behaviour with fines, on the premise that it dis-
criminated against the city’s financially underserved. According to New York
City Council-man Richie Torres, “we should not be stigmatizing how poor
people purchase goods and services” (Cochrane, 2019). In 2014, the US Office
of the Inspector General stated that about one quarter of the country’s adult
population lived outside the “financial mainstream”, which the report defines
as either not having a bank account or having to use expensive services such as
payday lenders (Cochrane, 2019).
Trust
whereas the seller wants to receive the money before delivering the goods.
This problem does not arise in cash transactions.
Security
Cash is direct, in the sense that the payer does not have to hand over personal
information, and what is bought remains confidential. The seller does not need
to know the name of the buyer. Nobody can see what someone has bought
when and from whom. In cashless transactions, as Häring (2018) puts it, every-
one knows what someone has just bought, including “intelligence services, the
police, a social credit authority, bank employees, credit card companies, rating
agencies, spouses and parents”.
In an age where data breaches are virtually an everyday occurrence and big
tech companies know us better than we know ourselves, it is easy to see why
concerns about privacy are paramount. Digital transactions allow businesses
a way to build a consumer’s personal profiles based on their spending patterns.
Cashless transactions leave a record in the database of the company as one
makes a payment, and this information is used to predict future events. This is
why White (2018) argues that the war on cash is a “war on financial privacy”,
intended to “welcome us to a financial panopticon”. And it is why Dowd
(2017) suggests that “the abolition of cash threatens to destroy what is left of
our privacy and our freedom” and that “we wouldn’t be able to buy a stick of
gum without the government knowing about it and giving its approval”.
128 Fintech
Budgeting
It is easier to keep track of spending when cash is used, particularly for those
living on tight budgets. With cash, users can only spend what they have as
opposed to the temptation to “buy now and pay later” (with interest that is not
subject to the low interest rate policy). With electronic payments, on the other
hand, visual control of the wallet is lost as the person will be so swamped with
receipts that effective control is lost. According to Häring (2018) “those who
want to sell as much as they can to us, or want to give us as much credit as they
prudently can, dislike that cash helps us control our spending”.
Protection
Bank runs occur when people flee to cash as they no longer trust banks. When
people anticipate a crisis, they hoard cash. Digital money, on the other hand,
is nothing but a claim on a bank, which means that, if the bank goes down,
the money will vanish, unless a deposit insurance scheme exists. However,
a deposit insurance scheme only provides partial protection up to a limit,
either by design or because the scheme is not well capitalised. Cash provides
protection against the losses incurred when a failed bank is bailed in, thus
confiscating deposits. Cash also provides protection against another form
of deposit confiscation: negative interest rates. Even though gold and silver
provide protection, they cannot be used as a means of payment unless they are
converted into cash first.
The war on cash 129
Civil Liberties
The propaganda machine used in the war on cash keeps telling us that the move
to a cashless society is inevitable and a sign of progress similar in spirit to the
move from the slide rule to the electronic calculator or from the typewriter to
the PC. Cash, which in itself is a great invention, has so many attributes as
a means of payment that the demand for it will be maintained (after all, it is
the only legal tender). The usefulness of cash is felt by anyone stuck in a petrol
station after failing to pay with a credit card, a debit card or any other form
of e-money because the system is down or the card has been declined. This
person will not be able to drive on, no matter how much money he or she has
in the bank. The only way to be able to drive on is to pay with cash, which
means that this person will deposit his or her Rolex, drive to the nearest ATM,
withdraw cash, and eventually retrieve the watch by paying in cash. This may
prove problematical for someone who does not wear a Rolex. Perhaps fintechs
can attract customers by giving them a Rolex each, just in case they get stuck
in a petrol station.
Häring (2018) argues that “the stubborn preference for cash is a major
stumbling block on the way to the pay-as-you-go-world of total surveillance”,
which is “why they tell us that cash is outdated, dirty, fishy and inconvenient”.
He attributes preference for cash to “some real and strong advantages of this
payment technology, which has served us well for thousands of years”. In
a comment on Desjardins (2017), Ronald West wonders why they want to take
cash away from us if it is worthless. In 2018, the CEO of the London-based
security company G4S, Jesus Rosano, summed up the attractive qualities of
130 Fintech
cash as follows: “People trust cash; it’s free to use and readily available for
consumers, it’s confidential, it can’t be hacked and it doesn’t run out of battery
power – these unique qualities continue to hold significant value to people
living on all continents” (Kelly, 2018). A complete abandonment of cash will
not occur naturally—it will be made possible only by government coercion.
We are told that the use of cash is declining because of e-commerce, mobile
payments, online banking, intermediaries (such as PayPal and Square), and
cryptocurrencies. In 2018, G4S published a Global Cash Report, in which
a very strong case was put for the continuation of cash (G4S, 2018). The
report states that, “wherever people are in the world, they value a range of
payment options”, that “there is no region where everyone chooses the same
way to pay”, and that, “despite the rise of electronic and mobile payments,
cash remains hugely important all over the world”. The report tells us that the
demand for cash continues to rise globally, despite the increase in electronic
payment options.
While the propaganda machine is telling us that cash is going the way of the
dinosaurs, the G4 report shows that cash payments are still dominant except
in a few countries. The report shows that cash is used to settle over 50% of
transactions in three quarters of the 24 countries examined. It also tells us that
cash is still used worldwide for over 50% of small-value transactions under
The war on cash 131
$25. Figure 6.1 displays the percentage of cash payments in the 24 countries
covered by the report, which reveals that two billion people worldwide do
not have access to bank accounts. This means that the war on cash is a war
on these people and that non-cash payments lead to their financial exclusion
rather than inclusion. In many countries in Asia and the Middle East, three out
of four online purchases are paid for by cash on delivery, which means that the
increase in online purchases has not taken cash out of the equation.
The report also shows that companies that do not typically accept cash
payments have seen growth when they introduced a cash option. For example,
Uber, whose biggest selling point is the electronic payment system, saw
exponential growth when they introduced a cash option in Asia, Africa and
South America. The report concludes that cash remains the cornerstone for
conducting day-to-day transactions. For many people around the world, cash
is the only viable payment method that allows them to conduct daily business,
including buying life-essentials.
The move away from cash is supposed to be made possible by voluntary
choice as traditional and new fintech is providing more attractive means of
payment. For example, paying by credit card is supposed to be more advanta-
geous than paying by cash for a number of reasons, including the ability to earn
rewards that may take the form of cash back or travel rewards that can be used
to get free flights or class upgrades. True, but how does this compare with the
card’s annual fees, foreign exchange transaction fees and the charges imposed
on retailers and passed on to consumers? It is unlikely that the two billion
people who do not have bank accounts and those who have bank accounts
and live on a pay-cheque by pay-cheque basis would want to earn points to
upgrade to business class on an international flight because they do not have
enough money to buy the economy class ticket. We are also told that another
advantage of paying with credit cards is to build and maintain credit rating. For
most people, enhancing the ability to accumulate debt is not worthy of the fees
and charges associated with it. And we have already dealt with the question of
security in this age where credit card fraud is rampant.
Fintech has provided means of payment as alternatives to both cash and
credit cards. Instead of paying with cash, cheque or credit cards, a consumer
can use a mobile phone to pay for a wide range of goods and services. In what
way are the new means of payment superior to cash, and are they superior
to cash in terms of costs and benefits? An attempt is made in the G4S report
to answer these questions by comparing means of payment according to 11
attributes or criteria: legal tender, convenience, direct settlement, anonymity,
availability, reliability, safe haven, tangibility, security, efficiency and remote
payment. These are the features that consumers most value in a payment
instrument, but no single one provides all of them. Efficiency is measured in
terms of cost effectiveness, which (according to the report) is not straightfor-
132 Fintech
ward to determine, as both the cost and the number of transactions for cash are
difficult to establish. Availability to the general public depends on the infra-
structure requirements. Reliability is measured in terms of the up-time of the
end-to-end infrastructure supporting completion of the payment transaction
(100% for cash).
tioned as a reason for the war on cash. For example, Karinja (2015) argues that
governments and bankers are losing grip on “the failing monetary system”,
which is “surviving only on the back of record low interest rates and excessive
money printing”. As a result, he argues, the war on cash has been escalating
around the world. However, the discussion does not refer to the bail-in legis-
lation that has become a fact of life in most “democratic” countries, allowing
banks to confiscate deposits when they are in trouble. The fact of the matter is
that the war on cash, extreme interest rate policies and bail-in legislation are
three components of an elaborate scheme representing a conspiracy of govern-
ments and bankers (financiers) against ordinary people.
The policy of ultra-low interest rates is pursued for the benefit of banks
and the corporate sector, helping them to finance parasitic activities, such as
stock buy-backs and venture capital. The minority who hold stocks, including
billionaires, benefit because low interest rates boost the stock market by ena-
bling these parasitic activities. Banks benefit from low deposit rates because
they can still charge 20% on credit cards. Loan sharks benefit because they
can borrow at 2% and lend at 5000%. Ultra-low interest rates are supposed to
boost the economy when it is contracting, which happens allegedly because
companies borrow to expand productive capacity and employ people, because
households borrow to buy consumer durables, and because savings on mort-
gage payments will be spent on goods and services. This is nonsense, which
has been made very clear during the Covid-19 pandemic. Business investment
in capital formation is not interest elastic but rather profit elastic. No household
will borrow to buy consumer durables because of an actual or anticipated job
loss. The money saved on mortgage payments will not be spent but rather
saved, because of a potential job loss. What matters for consumption decisions
is not the ability to borrow or the cost of borrowing, but rather the economic
outlook. On the other hand, a policy of ultra-low interest rates is devastating
for prudent savers and retirees, it discourages saving (which is required
to finance capital formation and therefore long-term economic growth), it
encourages the accumulation of debt, and it creates and/or maintains bubbles
in financial and property markets.
Negative interest rates represent the most dangerous and reckless monetary
experiment ever devised by the monetary authorities in “Western” countries.
They destroy the entire risk–return system that has been the basis of investing
for the last several centuries. The biggest beneficiaries of negative interest
rates are banks, which would tax depositors while still charging interest on
loans. Some banks even advertise negative interest mortgages, which is a scam
whereby borrowers are ripped off through fees and commissions. Effectively,
a negative interest rate policy amounts to a transfer of wealth from ordinary
people to the financial oligarchy.
The war on cash 135
Although the war on cash started, or at least was planned, before the fintech
industry acquired the momentum it has now, fintech would be a beneficiary of
a triumph over cash and the people who want to hold cash. The involvement
of PayPal, a major fintech firm, goes a long way back even though credit card
companies were active campaigners and conspirators. It is ironic that, while
the war on cash has been launched in the name of technology (in the sense
that technology has provided better means of payment than cash), banks are
increasingly dismantling a major piece of technological innovation in the
pursuit of the war on cash, which is the ATM. As a matter of fact, cash itself
was a major technological innovation of its time. Naturally, this can be justi-
fied on the grounds that a better technology forces out dated technology, but in
this instance the new technology is not a perfect substitute for the old technol-
ogy. Cash has attributes that cannot be matched by a credit card, an electronic
wallet or a chip under the skin. At best, the new technology is not such a major
improvement on the old technology when it comes to the means of payment. In
the event of war, civil strife or a natural disaster, those who have cash manage
the situation much better than those holding credit cards, electronic wallets,
chips under the skin and bitcoin.
The option to use cash should never be eliminated, just like the alternative
options of paying by a credit card, a mobile phone or a chip under the skin.
Cash-bashers, such as Chu (2016), dismiss the civil liberties argument for cash,
suggesting that the right to anonymity argument is overblown, and heralding
good news for libertarians, in that they can use cryptos to preserve anonymity.
But cryptos, which are fintech products, are not currencies and cannot replace
cash. An eminent libertarian, Ron Paul, is unlikely to see good news in using
cryptos rather than cash. He once said the following: “The cashless society is
the IRS’s dream: total knowledge of, and control over, the finances of every
single American” (Karinja, 2015).
The proponents of the war on cash tell us that moving away from cash can
be justified on practical grounds, let alone the “macroeconomic benefits”,
which arise from such destructive policies as negative interest rates whereby
banks, backed by governments, rob people. The fact of the matter, as Quijones
(2016) puts it, is that “the war on cash is being waged for the exclusive benefit
of those who already wield an inordinate amount of power and control over
the economy and the people that are struggling in it.” He points out that, by
killing cash slowly and quietly, those in power “seek to seize the last remaining
thing that offers people a small semblance of privacy, anonymity, and personal
freedom in their increasingly controlled and surveyed lives.”
The war on cash 137
What will a world without cash look like? If cash is to go the way of the
dinosaurs, something else must arise. Scott (2020) thinks that, in the case of
victory over cash, we will not live in a cashless society, but rather in a “bankful
society”. This is a society in which banks (or platforms built on top of them,
such as PayPal) “intermediate between even the smallest of payments, seeping
between buyers and sellers like a payments chaperone”. The conditions will be
ripe for the financial oligarchy to consolidate and expand its power by having
enormous amounts of data, which “enables them to enter into mega-deals with
mega-tech platforms, who also rely on a turn away from cash to facilitate the
mega-automation they seek”. Thus, Scott implicitly refers to fintech as a ben-
eficiary of the war on cash.
The propagandists claim that the war on cash is not a war because what
is happening is a peaceful and organic bottom-up move towards a cashless
society driven by ordinary people. This cannot be further from the truth,
because the war on cash is a war on ordinary people who commit the crime
of buying burgers with cash. Fintech has a dark side, at least because it is an
active participant in this illegal war of aggression.
7. Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary
innovation or a scam?
7.1 INTRODUCTION
138
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 139
entities, deriving its value from the underlying mechanism (mining in case of
cryptocurrencies, or backing by some underlying asset). The term was coined
in 2012 by the European Central Bank (ECB), which defined virtual curren-
cies as types of “digital money in an unregulated environment, issued and
controlled by its developers and used as a payment method among members of
a specific virtual community”. The term has since undergone some changes to
imply “a medium of exchange operating like a currency in some environments
but without having all of the true attributes of a currency” (Buntinx, 2015). For
example, frequent flyer points represent a virtual currency. Other examples are
PokéCoin, which is used for in-game purchases in the Pokémon Go game, and
the virtual currencies used in online games such as World of Warcraft.
A digital currency, on the other hand, is an internet-based form of cur-
rency or medium of exchange that allows for instantaneous transactions and
borderless transfer of ownership. It exhibits various properties of a physical
currency. Digital currencies include virtual currencies, which in turn include
cryptocurrencies. Compared with a virtual currency, a digital currency covers
a larger group that represents monetary assets in digital form. Digital curren-
cies may be regulated or unregulated. In the former case, it can be a sovereign
currency—when a central bank issues a digital form of its fiat currency notes.
On the other hand, a virtual currency often remains unregulated and hence
constitutes a type of digital currency. Cryptocurrencies are considered to be
part of the virtual currency group. A cryptocurrency is characterised by the use
of cryptography to ensure that transactions are secure and authentic, and also
to manage and control the creation of new currency units.
According to Lansky (2018), a cryptocurrency is a system that meets six
conditions. The first is that the system does not require a central authority—
instead, its state is maintained through distributed consensus. The second is
that the system keeps an overview of cryptocurrency units and their ownership.
The third is that the system stipulates whether or not new units can be created,
in which case the system determines the ownership of the new units. Number
four is that ownership of cryptocurrency units can be proved cryptographi-
cally. Number five is that the system allows transactions to be executed and
ownership to be changed. The last condition is that, if two different instruc-
tions for changing ownership of the same cryptographic units are simultane-
ously entered, the system performs at most one of them.
The operational mechanism governing cryptocurrencies consists of three
elements. The first is the “protocol”, which is a set of rules governing the
process whereby participants conduct transactions. The second is a ledger that
contains detailed history of transactions. The third is a decentralised network
of participants that follows the rules of the protocol to update, store and read
the ledger of transactions. These elements, according to crypto-enthusiasts,
ensure that cryptocurrencies are not subject to potential abuse by commercial
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 141
banks or the monetary authority. This is why the idea has been appealing, at
least for libertarians. Cryptocurrencies are digital, but they are not anyone’s
liability, in the sense that they cannot be redeemed. Their value derives only
from the expectation that they will continue to be accepted by others.
The first blockchain-based cryptocurrency was bitcoin, which is the most
popular and most highly priced. It was launched in 2009 by an individual or
a group known by the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto”. According to Buntinx
(2015), the main reason why bitcoin is both a digital and virtual currency is
that it does not exist in the “real physical world”, yet it also facilitates payment
for goods and services in the real world (which is controversial). While virtual
currencies are not intended to be used to settle real-life transactions, bitcoin
(according to the enthusiasts) “has transcended that border, and managed to
gain a foothold in the real world as an alternative means of payment”. Buntinx
(2015) goes on to argue that, if someone wants to label bitcoin in its truest
form, they would have to call it a “digital cryptocurrency”. Hence, bitcoin may
be viewed as having a hybrid nature, a combination of digital and virtual.
Thousands of cryptocurrencies have since been created to emulate the
success of bitcoin, but most of them have failed. In mid-July 2020, there
were 1665 “dead” cryptocurrencies as listed on 99Bitcoins (https://99bitcoins
.com/deadcoins/#nnbitcoins-deadcoins-list). These include Abulaba, Adcoin,
Badgercoin, Zengold and Ziber. The “signs of death” include inactive devel-
opment (the repository has not been updated for a long time), inactive Twitter
account, and low trading volume. It is also indicated by failure to get indexed
or listed on an exchange and by the closure of the website.
Now that we have seen some of the properties and distinguishing characteris-
tics of cryptocurrencies, we will examine their pros and cons. The advocates of
cryptocurrencies tell us that the records are transparent and instantly accessible
because the transactions are stored within an accessible, open ledger (known as
the blockchain). For the same reason, trading is easy and can be done any time.
Compared with physical currency, large quantities can be easily transported
without detection. This actually sounds more like a property that is convenient
for criminals, which is hardly a desirable property.
Cryptocurrencies are self-governed and managed. Privacy and security
are guaranteed because the blockchain ledger is hard to decode. This level of
difficult security makes a cryptocurrency more secure than the other curren-
cies used to complete electronic transactions. Another advantage is that, since
a cryptocurrency can be bought with many global currencies, it can be con-
verted into other currencies with minimal fees. Cryptocurrency transactions,
142 Fintech
tional reserve banking, particularly in the absence of strict cash and liquidity
requirements. This alleged advantage of bitcoin in particular is based on the
definition of inflation as too much money chasing too few goods, which
means rising prices and equivalently falling value (that is, purchasing power)
of money. Since a limit is imposed on the supply of bitcoin, the situation of
too many bitcoins chasing too few goods will not arise. This proposition is
problematical for a number of reasons.
To start with, in what sense is the limit binding, given that it is not a rule of
God or a rule of nature? It is ludicrous to compare the limit on the supply of
gold with the limit on the supply of bitcoin, as bitcoin enthusiasts love to do.
The supply of bitcoin is governed by a stipulation, set forth in its source code,
that only 21 million bitcoins will ever be produced. On average, bitcoins are
produced at a fixed rate of one block every 10 minutes. In addition, the number
of bitcoins released in each of these blocks is reduced by 50% every four years,
which means that the last bitcoin will be produced (mined) in 2140. However,
there is no reason why the limit cannot be changed because it is human-made.
Hayes (2021) suggests that “it’s possible that bitcoin’s protocol will be
changed to allow for a larger supply”. Surely, Satoshi Nakamoto (reportedly
worth $60 billion) will not go to prison for exceeding the limit that he set to
convince naïve people that bitcoin is as good as gold. Nakamoto set the limit
of 21 million bitcoins, but he (or she or they) can change it with the click of
a mouse.
One reason for changing the limit is highlighted by Kim (2021), who argues
that, even though the last bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140, “outsiders
foresee a day when the 21 million cap might, gasp, come up for debate”. She
suggests that, when no more bitcoins are left to mint, miners will rely solely
on transaction fees, which are paid by users to settle transactions through the
blockchain. This change gives cause for concern to some who view bitcoin’s
block subsidies as integral to bitcoin’s incentive system. She quotes some
experts as saying the following: “stop assuming that everything will still
work well once everything goes to a pure transaction-fees system as opposed
to block subsidy”. To the sceptics, this could undermine the structure that
motivates miners to record validated transactions in the ledger. Furthermore,
“bitcoin’s limited supply could limit the cryptocurrency’s utility as a global
reserve currency”. Hence, Kim states, “both Walch and Brody [two bitcoin
experts] suggested that bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap might one day be
subject to change”.
Consider a situation in which bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange
alongside the dollar. This is not an imaginary world, because a situation where
both are legal tender exists in El Salvador following a June 2021 decision to
do just that (Aleman, 2021). This system works on the stipulation that the
exchange rate between the two currencies is determined by the market and that
144 Fintech
all prices are expressed in bitcoin, even though the dollar continues to be the
currency of reference for accounting purposes. This means that prices in terms
of bitcoin will not be stable (zero inflation) but rather fluctuate with the dollar/
bitcoin exchange rate.
Suppose now that bitcoin replaces the dollar and other national currencies
and becomes the only medium of exchange. If the supply limit is maintained
in a growing economy, deflation will emerge, which can be devastating for the
economy. If deflation is exacerbated, it can throw an economy into a deflation-
ary spiral. This happens when a declining general price level leads to lower
output levels, lower wages, and shrinking demand by firms and consumers,
which all lead to a further decline in prices. Under deflation, debt burden
causes bankruptcies because the real value of debt repayments rises with time.
Even if we assume that deflation does not materialise, a fixed supply of
bitcoin does not guarantee zero inflation unless we ignore cost push factors.
A bad harvest, a natural disaster or a pandemic leads to higher input prices
(such as raw materials and intermediate goods). The result will be a rising
general price level, irrespective of the supply of the medium of exchange.
Under any set of circumstances, bitcoin will not provide an inflation-free
environment. After all, the three certainties of life are death, tax and inflation.
We have so far established that some of the pros of cryptocurrencies are
questionable, more likely propaganda than statement of actual and verifiable
merits. Now, we turn to a consideration of the cons. To start with, crypto-
currencies are complex, particularly for those who are not familiar with the
technology. A cryptocurrency may be impenetrable and virtually unhackable,
in which case it is safer than a bank account. However, if the user loses the
private key to their wallet, it cannot be recovered, and it will remain locked.
This is a huge disadvantage compared with a physical safe full of cash, which
can be opened with the help of a safecracker if the keys are lost or the combi-
nation is forgotten.
A definite disadvantage of cryptocurrencies is that it is easy for scammers
to indulge in business as usual and steal from anyone who lacks experience
and knowledge of the underlying technology, making it quite a risky invest-
ment. As cryptocurrency transactions cannot be traced, they become the
perfect tool for online criminals who can easily make and receive payments
with cryptocurrency without being traced. Cryptocurrencies have been used
to settle illegal transactions on the dark web. They have also been used to
launder money while hiding the source of the funds more efficiently. Although
cryptocurrencies are highly secure, the exchanges are not that secure. Since
exchanges store the wallet data of users to process transactions, the data can
be stolen by hackers, giving them access to the users’ accounts. Furthermore,
if a dispute arises between two parties, or if someone mistakenly sends funds
to a wrong wallet address, the cryptocurrency cannot be retrieved or cancelled
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 145
by the sender, and the recipient can keep it (this is easy money in a true sense).
The police and justice system cannot do anything about it, which means that
the law of the jungle prevails.
Cryptocurrencies are not really currencies, in the sense that they can be
used as a means of payment. The number of businesses that accept cryptos
as a form of payment are few, simply because of the lack of trust but perhaps
more importantly because of conversion risk, as the prices of cryptos in terms
of national fiat currencies are highly volatile. This is a limitation to (the few)
people who want to use bitcoins to settle their day-to-day transactions. Any
business wishing to accept bitcoin as a means of payment should first educate
employees about the concept. As an asset, a cryptocurrency does not have
any intrinsic value—it has a market value only because people want to buy it,
thinking that the price will keep on rising.
The crypto-mining industry is criticised for the enormous amount of elec-
tricity it consumes and the consequent CO2 footprint. Criddle (2021) quotes
researchers at Cambridge University as saying, “bitcoin uses more electricity
annually than the whole of Argentina” and “if bitcoin were a country, it would
be in the top 30 energy users worldwide”. The Cambridge researchers also say
that the energy used for bitcoin mining could power all kettles used in the UK
for 27 years. This staggering amount of electricity is used because huge com-
puters are constantly working to solve puzzles. Criddle quotes David Gerard,
author of Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain, as saying that “bitcoin energy use,
and hence its CO2 production, only spirals outwards” and “it’s very bad that all
this energy is being literally wasted in a lottery”. As we are going to see later,
the amount of electricity used to mine bitcoin is taken to represent the intrinsic
value of the crypto when in fact the intrinsic value is zero.
Three of the disadvantages will be elaborated on in the following sections.
The first is that cryptos are not currencies. The second is that cryptos do not
have any intrinsic value, in which case they are highly risky as investment
outlets because it is difficult to estimate the extent of overvaluation or under-
valuation. The third is that cryptos are the perfect vehicle for scammers.
7.4 CRYPTO-BUBBLES
agreement. Tomfort (2017) argues that “a first problem analysing asset price
bubbles is that there is no commonly accepted view what an asset price bubble
really is”. The popular press often uses the term “bubble” to describe a situ-
ation in which the price of an asset has risen significantly over such a short
period of time, such that the price is likely to reverse direction. Kindleberger
and Aliber (1996) define a bubble as “an upward price movement over an
extended range that then implodes”. Shiller (2000) defines a bubble as “a situa-
tion in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads
by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying
stories that might justify the price increases and bringing in a larger and larger
class of investors … despite doubts about the real value of an investment”.
The word “real” is not meant to imply “inflation-adjusted”, which is why the
word “intrinsic” is more indicative of what Shiller means. A bubble may be
defined on the basis of the extent of the deviation from the intrinsic value as
determined by fundamental factors. For example, Adalid and Detken (2007)
define a bubble as a 10% deviation from a long-term price trend. The choice
of the number (10%) seems arbitrary, which is why it may be better to identify
a bubble in terms of the characteristics of the bubble formation process. Typical
characteristics include the following: (i) rampant speculative activity, (ii) the
intrinsic value of the underlying asset is ignored by investors, at least partially;
(iii) strong market correction has to be expected once the bubble bursts; (iv)
the process of bubble formation tends to be explosive and nonlinear; and (v)
the market is characterised by excessive risk-taking and leveraging. Bubbles
may also be associated with Ponzi schemes and hypes.
Figure 7.1 exhibits the dollar price of bitcoin over the period between 19
August 2016 and 19 August 2021, which shows clearly the peaks and troughs
associated with bubbles and crashes. Table 7.1 identifies the peaks and troughs
that define the bubble followed by crash behaviour. Let us consider the bubble
of 2017, when the price peaked at $17,706, and the bubble of 2021, when the
price peaked at $63,109. When the 2017 bubble burst, the price went down to
$3,486, and when the 2021 bubble burst, the price went down to $30,187.
The phenomenal rise of the price of bitcoin in 2017 was reversed in early
2018, which triggered (or perhaps was caused by) headlines such as the follow-
ing: “European Central Bank wakes up to digital currency concern”; “Bitcoin,
Ethereum and all other top 100 digital currencies tumble”; “Bitcoin value
plunges dramatically amid global financial market drop”; “Cryptocurrency
value slumps amid fears ‘bitcoin mania’ is over”; and “Bitcoin price plunge:
falling cryptocurrency value highlights new fears around digital money”
(Moosa, 2019). Some observers believe that it was a bubble, triggered by
intense speculative activity. For example, Turanova (2017) makes a compari-
son with other well-known bubbles by saying that “the situation in the bitcoin
market resembles the tulip fever in 17th-century Europe, a rally in the Japanese
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 147
markets of the late 1980s, or the internet mania of 1999”. She also quotes Janet
Yellen, the former Fed chair and current Treasury Secretary, as saying that
bitcoin is a “highly speculative asset” based on the conventional wisdom of
traditional finance. Thompson (2017) describes the 2017 rise of bitcoin as an
“astronomical trajectory”, arguing, “bitcoin’s behavior more resembles that
of a collectible frenzy, like Beanie Babies in the late 1990s”. Robert Shiller is
quoted by Detrixhe (2017) as saying that “the best example [of a bubble] right
now is bitcoin”.
On the other hand, bubble deniers do not agree with the characterisation of
a bubble followed by a crash. For example, Turanova (2017) describes the
bitcoin as “an asset class in search of an equilibrium price”, suggesting that
“this price discovery process is unlikely to proceed without the market price
getting excessive”. Likewise, Volpicelli (2017) rejects the description of the
2017 surge as a bubble, suggesting it is “just another bizarre episode in the
cryptocurrency’s odd saga”. He quotes William Derringer, an MIT historian
who has researched financial bubbles extensively, as saying that “bubbles are
not called as they happen”, they “get identified in retrospect”, and “if we knew
with absolute certainty that Bitcoin’s was a bubble, it would have already
148 Fintech
able over the long term.” He also suggests, “volatility is not only expected, but
it will happen again – but that shouldn’t worry investors”. It remains to say that
this fund manager works for a company that “offers investors access to Bitcoin
through a traditional fund structure”.
Let us see if the rise of bitcoin ticks the boxes for being a bubble, which
is useful because if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be
a duck. Moosa (2019) lists 12 characteristics of bubbles that bitcoin exhibits.
Take, for example, the media frenzy: in November 2017 alone, 2.6 million
news stories were published by the media (Gannon, 2017). People have indeed
been mortgaging their homes to buy bitcoin (Morris, 2017; Shah, 2017), and
it has been suggested that “leverage has been used to fund bitcoin investments
through time” (Jacobs, 2018). Bubbles are sometimes triggered by new
technology—in this case it is the blockchain technology. Everyone is talking
about bitcoin—hence the stories of “when the shoeshine boys talk stocks it
was a great sell signal in 1929” (Rothchild, 1996) and “when your cab driver
starts talking about bitcoin, it’s time to sell” (Ratner, 2017). On this point,
Reynolds (2017) says the following: “In just a few months, bitcoin’s public
perception has gone from that of an untraceable currency loved by dark web
drug dealers to a potential get-rich-quick investment opportunity that everyone
has an opinion on.”
Despite the very large volume of commentary, academic work on bubbles
in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is sparse. Garcia et al. (2014) and
Kristoufek (2015) pre-suppose the presence of a bubble along the lines sug-
gested by Shiller et al. (1984). More formal testing based on economic funda-
mentals is provided by Alabi (2017), who uses ideas from network theory to
find periodically collapsing bubbles. Cheah and Fry (2015) test for evidence of
speculative bubbles in bitcoin returns and find evidence to suggest that bitcoin
prices are prone to substantial bubbles. Blau (2017) argues that the high price
volatility of bitcoin is not related to heightened speculative activity. Baek
and Elbeck (2015) find evidence to suggest that bitcoin returns are driven by
buyers and sellers internally, and not by fundamental economic factors. By
using detrended ratios, they find that bitcoin returns are 26 times more volatile
than those of the S&P 500 index, suggesting that it is a speculative investment
vehicle. Cheung et al. (2015) detect a number of short-lived bubbles, and three
large bubbles (2011–2013) lasting from 66 to 106 days. Corbet et al. (2018)
identify periods of clear bubble behaviour and conclude that bitcoin now is
almost certainly in a bubble phase.
Based on price and volume data up to the end of November 2017, Moosa
(2019) provides formal empirical evidence by using procedures that do not
require the estimation of a fundamental value for bitcoin. The empirical evi-
dence shows that, (i) the volume of trading can be explained predominantly in
terms of price dynamics; (ii) trading in bitcoin is based exclusively on tech-
150 Fintech
whereby it replaces the dollar (and probably other fiat currencies) as the “main
unit of exchange”. The second scenario is that of “bitcoin as gold”, whereby
fiat currency remains the main unit of exchange everywhere except in a few
extremely dysfunctional economies. The third scenario is that of “bitcoin
bust”, whereby bitcoin is abandoned, crashing relative to the dollar and never
being useful as a means of payment for daily necessities. Dickson (2018)
believes that bitcoin still has a long way to go to fulfil the vision of becoming
a mainstream method of payment and a major currency, referring to “inherent
challenges, technical and legal” that have become more pronounced.
Some empirical work has been done to determine whether bitcoin is a cur-
rency or an investment asset by looking at correlation between bitcoin returns
and returns on currencies and assets, but the results of this kind of work have
not resolved the debate. For example, Baur et al. (2018) try to answer the
question of whether bitcoin is a currency or investment by analysing the value
and characteristics of bitcoin relative to a large number of different assets
(including equity, precious metals, currencies, energy and bonds). They find
the properties of bitcoin return to be very different from return on traditional
investments, implying that bitcoin has diversification benefits, and conclude
that it is more like an asset than a currency. Yermack (2013) argues that bitcoin
daily exchange rates exhibit virtually zero correlation with widely used curren-
cies and gold, making it useless for risk management and exceedingly difficult
for owners to hedge. While both agree on the proposition that bitcoin returns
are decoupled from returns on other currencies and assets, they disagree on the
interpretation of the implication of this result for hedging.
If bitcoin is a currency, it should perform the functions, and possess the
characteristics, of money. Starting with functions, a successful currency serves
the functions of medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value.
According to Yermack (2013), “bitcoin faces challenges in meeting all three
of these criteria”. This is perhaps an understatement because bitcoin fails
miserably on all counts.
As far as the first function of medium of exchange is concerned, Yermack
(2013) notes that most bitcoin transactions involve transfers between specu-
lative investors, and only in a minority of cases are bitcoins used to purchase
goods and services. He describes evidence of bitcoin’s footprint in daily com-
merce as being mostly anecdotal, consisting of newspaper stories about people
living only by spending bitcoin or estimates of large numbers of businesses
that are willing to accept bitcoin. Raviv (2018) identifies transaction speed (or
lack thereof) as an obstacle. It takes time to process a bitcoin transaction as it
is added to the ledger of the blockchain and pending approval.
On the second function of unit of account, Yermack (2013) suggests that
bitcoin faces a number of obstacles in becoming useful for this purpose. He
attributes the poor performance of bitcoin as a unit of account to the require-
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 153
ment of quoting the prices of goods and services to four or five decimal places
with leading zeros. For example, the bitcoin price of an item costing $10 is
quoted as 0.00553 bitcoins (just imagine customers being told that the price
of an item they wish to purchase is 5.53×10-3 bitcoins). This practice, which
is rarely seen in retail marketing, is likely to confuse both sellers and buyers.
Bitcoin has a high value compared with the prices of most ordinary products
and services, a problem that according to Yermack (2013) is often overlooked
or trivialised by bitcoin enthusiasts.
The third function is that of store of value, which is not performed well by
bitcoin. Yermack (2013) argues that, as a store of value, “bitcoin faces great
challenges due to rampant hacking attacks, thefts, and other security-related
problems”. When a currency functions as a store of value, the owner obtains
the currency at a certain point in time and exchanges it for goods and services,
subsequently expecting to receive the same economic value that the currency
was worth when the owner acquired it. Then there is the problem of managing
the risk arising from the price volatility of bitcoin. Seth (2018) argues that
volatility over short periods is not a characteristic of a stable currency, but of
speculative investment products such as derivatives.
To perform the functions of money, the asset must have the characteristics
of divisibility, portability, acceptability, durability and scarcity. Bitcoin is
divisible to 100,000,000 units, which is highly unusual for fiat currencies that
are typically decimalised (divisible to 100 units). Money must be portable in
the sense that people can carry it around easily, but bitcoin enthusiasts may
argue that, in a cashless society, this will not be a problem as a virtual elec-
tronic currency will do the job. A currency must be acceptable regardless of its
intrinsic value, which is not necessarily a characteristic of bitcoin. A currency
must be durable so that it preserves its value over time—arguably an electronic
currency is durable. For a currency to be of value, it must be scarce, which is
a characteristic of bitcoin, at least as things stand (even though the supply of
bitcoin is not governed by a law of physics).
If bitcoin is used as a currency when the dollar is still the reference currency
for pricing and invoicing, the bitcoin prices of goods and services become so
volatile that it renders it useless as a medium of exchange, a unit of account
and a store of value. This is because prices in terms of bitcoin depend on the
exchange rate against the dollar, which is highly volatile as we have seen. In
Figure 7.2, we can see the bitcoin price of a hypothetical commodity that has
a stable dollar price. Currently, this problem is experienced in El Salvador
where bitcoin is used alongside the dollar as a medium of exchange, just
because the president happens to be a bitcoin enthusiast. This is why Taleb
(2021) refers to conflation between “accepting bitcoin for payments” and
pricing goods in bitcoin, arguing that, to price in bitcoin, the price must be
fixed, with a conversion into fiat floating, rather than the reverse. This price
154 Fintech
volatility does not allow bitcoin to serve the functions of money because, as
the BIS (2018) puts it, “money needs to have the same value in different places
and to keep a stable value over time”. This is far from what we can see in
Figure 7.2.
Bitcoin is an investment asset without any intrinsic value. Bonds have intrinsic
value because they produce cash flows in the form of coupon payments and
the redemption of the face value. Stocks have intrinsic value because they pay
dividends and represent ownership of companies with physical and financial
assets. Gold and diamonds have intrinsic value because they are used in jew-
ellery and have some industrial applications. What intrinsic value does bitcoin
and other cryptos have? Well, nothing. Turanova (2017) believes that bitcoin is
like gold because both are scarce. However, the scarcity of gold is determined
by nature, which no one has control over, whereas the scarcity of bitcoin is due
to (flexible and non-binding) rules determined by the bitcoin establishment.
Furthermore, Wasik (2017) argues that “scarcity is strong selling point” and
that “whenever the phrase ‘limited quantities’ is uttered, people go crazy”.
However, scarcity on its own is no reason for a buying frenzy—otherwise, we
would observe a similar phenomenon in the trading of endangered species.
Thompson (2017) suggests that bitcoin has no intrinsic value because it “has
no profits” and that “it’s not even a company”—rather, it is a “digital encrypted
currency running on a decentralized network of computers around the world”.
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 155
A widely held view is that bitcoin is a Ponzi and/or a pyramid scheme, which
are typically associated with bubbles. For example, Byrne (2017) refers to
“a class of fraud which uses technology, rather than a scheme operator, to
mediate the interactions between an investment scam’s beneficiaries and
its dupes”. He also describes what he calls the “Nakamoto Scheme” as “an
automated hybrid of a Ponzi scheme and a pyramid scheme which has, from
the perspective of operating a criminal enterprise, the strengths of both and
(currently) the weaknesses of neither”. Gandal et al. (2018) identify the impact
of suspicious trading activity on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange, in
which approximately 600,000 bitcoins valued at $188 million were acquired
fraudulently. They find that the price of bitcoin rose by an average of 4% on
days when suspicious trades took place, compared with a slight decline on
days without suspicious activity. They reach the plausible conclusion that
suspicious trading activity likely caused the unprecedented spike in the price
of bitcoin in late 2013, when the price jumped from around $150 to more than
$1,000 in two months.
In general, cryptos are associated with fraud in a number of ways. The
whole scheme is a scam because they have no intrinsic values, which makes
them no different from selling horse meat labelled beef (which has happened
in reality). The scheme makes it possible for tech-savvy fraudsters to steal
cryptos from naïve market participants hoping to be rich overnight. Cryptos are
used extensively in criminal activity. They can be used to run Ponzi Schemes.
ICOs, the selling of newly created cryptos, are simply selling bad apples to
unsuspected customers. Harris (2018) refers to a study conducted by Ernst &
Young showing that 10% of the money raised for ICOs has been stolen. One
reason for the proliferation of cryptos is that when a fraudster strikes it lucky
and becomes wealthy as a result, others try to emulate his or her success.
Scammers exploit the fact that so many people are still fairly unfamiliar with
cryptos, except for the supposed “get rich quick” potential. Scams include fake
token sales, blackmail scams and fake services that promise to “mix” a user’s
coins with those of others in order to make transactions harder to trace—only
for the perpetrator to run off with the money instead. Scammers like to use
bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because transactions are irreversible and
do not require disclosure of personal details. Sergeenkov (2021) describes
a crypto Ponzi scheme as follows: the fraudsters set up imaginary crypto
enterprises and lure investors with various stories and pseudo-statistics. With
cryptos, it is somewhat easier to market unrealistic profits to an audience that
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 157
does not understand how they work, an audience that is otherwise dazzled by
the potential of cryptos to generate ultra-high returns.
Another classification of bitcoin scams is suggested by Liebkind (2020).
The scams include exchange and wallet hacks, social media scams, social engi-
neering scams, ICO scams and DeFi rug pulls. Social engineering scams occur
when hackers use psychological manipulation and deceit to gain control of
vital information relating to user accounts. Phishing, for example, is a widely
used social engineering scam to target information pertaining to online wallets.
Another popular social engineering method used by hackers is to send bitcoin
blackmail emails. ICO scams proliferated at the height of cryptocurrency
mania in 2017 and 2018. After an intense SEC crackdown, the frequency of
such scams has diminished. Decentralised finance, or DeFi rug pulls, are the
latest type of scams to hit the cryptocurrency business. Smart contracts that
lock in funds for a specified period of time are the most popular method for
programmers to steal funds.
Examples of how cryptos have been used in scams and Ponzi schemes
are plentiful. Take, for example, the PlusToken fiasco involving a company
(PlusToken) that was supposedly a cryptocurrency wallet service that promised
users high returns if they used bitcoin or ethereum to buy the fake company’s
own token, called “plus”. An elaborate marketing campaign convinced more
than three million people—the majority of whom were in China, Korea and
Japan—to invest by reaching them through the popular messaging platform
WeChat, holding in-person meetings, and posting ads in supermarkets. After
a year of fleecing investors of their funds, the PlusToken team closed down the
scheme in 2019 and exited with cryptocurrencies worth over $3 billion.
PlusToken is one of the “biggest crypto Ponzi schemes”, as Sergeenkov
(2021) calls them. He describes OneCoin as “perhaps the longest-running
Ponzi scheme ever witnessed in the crypto industry”. OneCoin managed to
lure investors in their numbers during the period 2014 to 2019, when the Ponzi
scheme was said to have defrauded investors of $5.8 billion by marketing
OneCoin as a “bitcoin killer” and the next hottest innovation in the crypto
industry. Beneath this “business venture” was a multi-level marketing scheme
that compensated members with cash and OneCoin each time they recruited
new investors. The problem was not the marketing strategy per se, but the fact
that OneCoin had no blockchain of its own. Whenever investors received or
bought OneCoin, they held a worthless coin that was not backed by accepted
digital asset technology. And even that backing does not make a crypto an
asset of value.
Another major crypto Ponzi scheme, Bitconnect, was launched in 2016
as a bitcoin lending solution promising monthly returns of 40%. In 2018,
the US authorities declared Bitconnect a Ponzi scheme and demanded that
it halt its operations. In 2016, GainBitcoin emerged as an India-based cloud
158 Fintech
mining solution with the promise of generating monthly returns of 10% for 18
months. The project attracted no less than $300 million from Indian investors.
In 2017, it became clear that there was neither physical mining equipment
nor any mining operations backing the elaborate scheme. Fortunately, the
scheme’s mastermind was arrested in 2018 and charged for defrauding more
than 8,000 investors. Like GainBitcoin, Mining Max used an ostensible cloud
mining venture to mask the true nature of its illegal operations. Mining Max
pitched the idea of participating in a multi-crypto-mining ecosystem, which
had the potential of generating high returns. However, just like every other
crypto Ponzi scheme, much of the business model relied on heavy marketing
campaigns geared at attracting new investments from individuals seeking to be
rich overnight, or those watching their real wealth evaporate as a result of zero
or negative interest rates.
Wright (2021) tells an Australian story of a crypto-fraud victim, Jonathan,
who stumbled on an Instagram account flaunting huge profits from cryptocur-
rencies. The strategy, he was told, could produce eye-watering returns of 50%
per month. Jonathan and his friends (who no longer talk to him) lost more than
$20,000 to the scam. When he went to the police, he was told the following:
“You’ve only lost $20,000. We know people who have lost millions”. On
25 June 2021, the Australian regulator, ASIC (2021) issued a scam alert,
declaring a rise in crypto-scams. According to ASIC, investors who have been
scammed are typically called or e-mailed by scammers with an investment
opportunity, or approached by their friends, family members, or online roman-
tic partners who tell them how they have made money online and suggest that
they try it too. Investors typically sign up to these fraudulent schemes online
and deposit funds into a trading account, via either a crypto-wallet or a bank
account. When an investor logs into their account, it may look as though they
are making profit initially (due to fake data), but eventually they see “trading
losses”, even though no actual trading has taken place. When the investor
asks to withdraw their funds, the scammers either cease all contact or demand
further payment before funds can be released.
Likewise, the SEC (2021) warns of “Ponzi schemes using virtual cur-
rencies” by fraudsters who “lure investors into Ponzi and other schemes”.
According to the SEC, fraudsters may also be attracted to using virtual cur-
rencies to perpetrate their frauds because transactions in virtual currencies
have greater privacy benefits and less regulatory oversight than transactions
in conventional currencies. In a recent case, SEC v. Shavers, the organiser of
an alleged Ponzi scheme advertised a bitcoin “investment opportunity” in an
online bitcoin forum. Investors were promised up to 7% interest per week and
that the invested funds would be used for bitcoin arbitrage activities (what-
ever that means) in order to generate the promised returns. Instead, invested
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 159
bitcoins were allegedly used to pay existing investors and exchanged into US
dollars to pay the organizer’s personal expenses (SEC, 2013).
Crypto-scams are beyond the reach of regulators in South Africa (and else-
where). Henderson and Prinsloo (2021) tell a story about the alleged bitcoin
fraud at Africrypt because cryptocurrency is not yet a regulated product there.
While describing the investment platform as a Ponzi scheme, the Financial
Sector Conduct Authority said that all it could do was review complaints
because “crypto assets are not regulated in terms of any financial sector law
in South Africa and consequently the FSCA is not in a position to take any
regulatory action.” Johannesburg-based Africrypt, launched in 2019, was run
by two brothers who promised a minimum return of five times the amount
invested, according to a police statement made by one investor. In the end,
he invested close to 1.8 million rand ($126,000), the statement said. Lawyers
acting on behalf of a group of clients say that the brothers and bitcoin worth as
much as $3.6 billion have just vanished.
Warnings of and stories about crypto-scams keep coming. Bambrough
(2020) quotes Dave Portnoy, a stock market day trader, as saying that he
thinks the cryptocurrency market is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme. Popper
(2020) identifies various forms of criminal activity using bitcoin, including
the sale of illegal drugs, shopping on the dark net markets, and ransomware
attacks, in which hackers steal or encrypt computer files and refuse to give
them back unless a bitcoin payment is made. Foley et al. (2019) refer to the
use of cryptocurrencies in illegal trade (drugs, hacks and thefts, illegal por-
nography, even murder-for-hire), terrorism funding, money laundering, and
the avoidance of capital controls. They reveal that illegal activity accounts for
a substantial proportion of the users and trading activity in bitcoin. So much for
“one of the most important inventions in human history”.
Interest in bitcoin (and cryptos in general) can be traced back to the finan-
cial crisis in Cyprus, which led to proposals to raid domestic bank accounts
(Eichenwald, 2013). Those who were worried about the possibility of having
their deposits confiscated to salvage failed banks (the so-called “bail-in”)
found it sensible to put their savings in bitcoin. There are also those who like
bitcoin because it frees them from what they see as a scandalous fractional
reserve banking system or the “Big Brother” element resulting from the
involvement of central banks in private money transfers. The buying frenzy
that has taken the price of bitcoin to ridiculously high levels is triggered by the
belief that the price will keep on rising even though, unlike gold, bitcoin has no
intrinsic value. Bitcoin is not like any national currency, which commands pur-
chasing power over goods and services and backed by the power of the state. In
160 Fintech
the case of cryptos, there is no central bank and no country, and nothing stands
behind them other than enthusiastic and perhaps disillusioned investors.
We have witnessed how the market can be manipulated by tweets from
Tesla CEO Elon Musk. At first, Musk was all aboard the bitcoin train. He pur-
chased $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in February 2020 and announced that his
company would begin accepting bitcoin for electric vehicle purchases a month
later. Some 49 days later, he tweeted that Tesla would no longer accept bitcoin
because of the adverse environmental impact of mining. Subsequently, Musk
turned his attention to Dogecoin, but he has kept on tweeting about bitcoin.
In July 2021, bitcoin jumped past $30,000 as Musk said that Tesla was
“most likely” to start accepting it as payment again (BBC, 2021). When he
was confronted with the allegation that he had helped to boost the prices of
cryptocurrencies before selling them, he said (as expected): “I might pump,
but I don’t dump… I definitely do not believe in getting the price high and
selling… I would like to see Bitcoin succeed”. I suppose that he is concerned
about the success of bitcoin because of its contribution to human welfare. It
sounds odd that someone who is trying to save the planet by accelerating the
shift to electric vehicles supports something that is produced by using massive
amounts of electricity generated from fossil fuel.
As Cassidy (2021) puts it, “the individual most clearly associated with
bitcoin’s travails is Elon Musk”. However, Cassidy believes that the issues
facing the crypto-market go well beyond one individual, pointing out that the
bitcoin boom faces two existential threats: a tightening of monetary policy by
the Federal Reserve and a legal crackdown by the Chinese and other govern-
ments intent on protecting their own currencies. The fact of the matter is that
cryptos are not currencies and do not have any intrinsic value. The hype may
last for a long time to come, but reason will prevail eventually as with what
happened with previous hypes. Cryptocurrencies look more like a scam than
a revolutionary innovation.
Perhaps nothing can serve as well as a closing remark of this chapter than
what Nouriel Roubini, who describes cryptos as “the mother or father of all
scams and bubbles”, said about the scam. In a prepared testimony to the US
Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Community Affairs, Roubini
(2018) referred to “scammers, swindlers, criminals, charlatans, insider whales
and carnival barkers (all conflicted insiders)” who tapped into “clueless retail
investors’ FOMO (‘fear of missing out’)” and then took them for a ride with
pump-and-dump schemes for “scammy crappy assets at the peak that then
went into a bust and crash—in a matter of months—like you have not seen
in any history of financial bubbles”. He went further by referring to altcoin,
cryptocurrencies that were developed after bitcoin became popular, as “s**t-
coin”, and he qualified his statement by saying the following: “Actually calling
this useless vaporware garbage a ‘s**tcoin’ is a grave insult to manure that
Cryptocurrencies: a revolutionary innovation or a scam? 161
162
The implications of fintech for financial stability and inclusion 163
misleading practices and biased financial advice; and (iv) inability of people to
understand banking products and services.
Measures designed to safeguard financial inclusion are identified by
Imboden (2020) to include liquidity support for financial institutions that
target unserved and underserved customers, credit facilities to support lending
to small and medium-sized enterprises, continued expansion of digital finan-
cial services and their delivery, a risk-based approach to customer due dili-
gence, rapid opening of accounts for social assistance payments, enhancement
of cross-border remittances and payments, and customer-centric financial
consumer protection. These measures also promote financial stability by con-
tributing to the prudent functioning and diversification of financial institutions.
On the other hand, if fewer people or enterprises are able to access, use or
trust financial services, even greater economic repercussions would, in turn,
exacerbate stability risks.
banks go through stress testing every year. The third is that shocks must be
dampened and contained when they occur, so that they do not get worse. On
the other hand, Dowd (2009) puts forward good economic-theoretical reasons
to cast a shadow of doubt on the feasibility of using financial regulation to
promote financial stability.
Insufficient accounting and audit regulation leads to scandals and possi-
bly financial crises. In the recent past, accounting scandals were typically
produced by the excessive greed of a few individuals whose actions led to
disastrous consequences that brought down whole companies and affected
millions of people. The most high-profile scandals involved companies like
Waste Management (1998), Enron (2001), WorldCom (2002), Tyco (2002),
HealthSouth (2003), Freddie Mac (2003), American International Group (AIG)
(2005) and Lehman Brothers (2008). The Bernie Madoff Scandal of 2008 was
perpetrated by one individual who ran a “brilliant” Ponzi scheme (perhaps
the biggest Ponzi scheme in history). In 2002, the US regulatory authorities
responded by implementing the Sarbanes–Oxley Act, which stipulates that top
management must individually certify the accuracy of financial information
and make penalties for fraudulent financial activity much more severe.
Market discipline means that financial institutions and market participants
conduct business while considering risks to their stakeholders. Crockett (2001)
defines market discipline as internal and external governance mechanisms in
a free-market economy without direct government intervention. So defined,
the question of whether market discipline can, by itself, secure financial sta-
bility comes pretty close to asking whether the financial system, left to its own
devices, is inherently stable. Crockett identifies pre-requisites for market dis-
cipline to be fully effective in ensuring financial stability, including the avail-
ability of information (and the ability to process the information correctly),
the right incentives, and the mechanisms required to exercise discipline. The
problem, of course, is moral hazard, which is defined by Dowd (2009) as
a situation “where one party is responsible for the interests of another, but has
an incentive to put his or her own interests first”. The fact of the matter is that
market discipline cannot ensure financial stability in the absence of regulation.
Allowing financial institutions to regulate themselves through market disci-
pline is like allowing the inmates to run the asylum.
Excessive leverage, which is related to financial innovation, is described by
Fullerton (2011) as being “at the center of all banking crises, by definition”.
Leverage is particularly dangerous because, as Fullerton puts it, it is embedded
in structured securities in the absence of transparent accounting for leverage.
Under these conditions, “limiting it [leverage] is complex and beyond the skill
of legislators to efficiently write into law, and beyond the ability of regulators
to manage”. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concludes that a combi-
nation of excessive borrowing and risky investments “put the financial system
The implications of fintech for financial stability and inclusion 167
on a collision course with [the] crisis” (FCIC, 2011). Chan (2011) argues that
“both the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the current European sovereign
debt crisis have been driven by excessive leverage in private and public sectors
alike in the major industrial economies, resulting in dangerously high levels
of debt”. He attributes the rapidly rising levels of debt to several factors,
including financial innovation, declining real interest rates, and the illusion
of the “great moderation” (which nurtured the view that everything would be
fine and that asset prices would continue to rise). Chan, however, attributes
over-leveraging mostly to market failure, in the sense that the market has been
sending the wrong signal that rising indebtedness is nothing to worry about.
Similar views have been expressed by Singh (2008), D’Hulster (2009), the
Financial Stability Board (2009) and the Financial Services Authority (2009).
A related factor is liquidity, which is affected by maturity transformation.
Fullerton (2011) gives an example: “Lehman was funding real estate holdings
in the Repo and commercial paper markets was sheer folly, apparently under-
stood as a joke even inside the firm”. The global financial crisis was charac-
terised by a rapid breakdown of the financial markets that provide liquidity
for financial institutions. Kowalik (2013) argues that “the distress in funding
markets was amplified by preceding changes in the liquidity management
practices of financial institutions, changes that had accelerated in the decade
leading up to the crisis”. These changes occurred on the assets side because
financial institutions relied increasingly on securities that were liquid in good
times but could become illiquid under market-wide stress. They occurred
on the liabilities side because financial institutions relied increasingly on
short-term money market funding, such as overnight repurchase agreements
(repos), to fund long-term assets. The practice, according to Goldstein (2008),
has been “just-in-time” borrowed liquidity for major players instead of an
adequate reserve of own liquidity. A similar view is put forward by Kaufman
(2009), who points out that the public perception of liquidity has changed from
one based on assets (what one could sell) to one based on liabilities (ease of
borrowing). These practices made financial institutions extremely vulnerable
to liquidity risk.
Other factors that cause financial instability are shadow banking and
financial innovation. Landau (2019) describes shadow banking as a “major
source of debates and concerns for financial stability”. New financial products,
such as securitised assets, were believed to have tremendous potential for the
diversification and efficient management of risk (Merton, 1992; Mendoza et
al., 2009; Trichet, 2009). The global financial crisis changed those beliefs, as
excessive risk-taking in some “innovative” products brought down the finan-
cial system and produced a great recession. Haliassos (2015) suggests that, to
strike a balance between innovation and safety, financial product transparency
and guidelines for assessing a financial innovation’s potential impact on finan-
168 Fintech
the other hand, demand side barriers are the factors that can restrict demand for
financial services. These factors include low income levels, lack of customer
awareness of the availability of certain services and products (which may be
caused by low levels of financial literacy), and the absence of trust in financial
institutions.
Financial inclusion is related to financial literacy and has implications for
financial stability. Financial literacy is the possession of skills and knowledge
that allow an individual to make informed and effective financial decisions.
Financial education, which leads to financial literacy, is the process of building
knowledge, skills and attitudes. Financial literacy is considered as a major
demand side factor for inclusion because a well-educated individual makes
better financial decisions (Fischer, 2011; Rastogi and Ragabiruntha, 2018).
Rai et al. (2019) establish financial literacy as one of the basic necessities for
a high level of financial inclusion. In fact, financial literacy is a pre-requisite
for achieving inclusion, and the promotion of greater inclusion goes hand in
hand with the level of financial literacy. Klühs et al. (2018) find that financial
literacy is always strongly and causally related to financial inclusion and that
the marginal effect of financial literacy on financial inclusion tends to be
largest in countries with lower income, a less developed financial sector, and
fewer bank branches.
Financial inclusion is related to financial stability in a number of ways.
By reaching out to more customers, banks attract cheap retail deposits,
thereby reducing reliance on volatile wholesale funding (Demirgüç-Kunt and
Huizinga, 2010). Rahman (2019) suggests that financial inclusion supports
financial stability by providing banks with more diversified sources of funding
and loan base. They note that individual financial institutions are more resilient
when they draw their funds from a large number of small savers, rather than
just a few big firms or entities, and when they lend to a large number of small
borrowers rather than a few big corporate clients. Khan (2011) points out
that diversification of bank assets (as a result of increased lending to smaller
firms) reduces the overall riskiness of the loan portfolio because of a smaller
relative size of any single borrower in the overall portfolio and a lower level of
volatility. It would also reduce interconnectedness risk. Moreover, Khan sees
the reduction in banks’ dependence on “non-core” financing, which tends to be
more volatile during a crisis, as a factor that reduces procyclicality risk.
Hannig and Jansen (2010) argue that low-income groups are relatively
immune to economic cycles, which means that including them in the finan-
cial sector boosts the stability of deposits and loans. It is also envisaged that
the availability of formal financial services reduces the appeal of unreliable
savings channels, such as local money lenders and the Ponzi schemes that
inevitably crop up in less regulated markets with less sophisticated and
inexperienced investors. Furthermore, the effectiveness of monetary policy is
172 Fintech
enhanced when a large group of potential small borrowers is enticed to take out
loans in response to a policy rate cut, rather than depending on the investment
whims of a small group of large borrowers.
Empirical evidence on the effect of inclusion on stability is provided by
Ahamed and Mallick (2019), who find that financial inclusion contributes to
financial stability and that the positive association is particularly pronounced
in the case of banks that have a higher customer deposit funding share and
lower marginal costs of providing banking services. However, it seems
far-fetched to suggest that financial inclusion can promote income equality at
the household level, thereby reducing the likelihood of system-wide decline in
consumption that could cause unexpected withdrawals from bank accounts or
increased incidence of non-performing bank loans. It is, however, plausible to
suggest that financial stability can lead to greater financial inclusion because
profitable, liquid and well-capitalised banks are in a better position than weak
banks to shoulder the upfront costs of reaching out to previously underserved
markets, taking chances with new products and services to grow new clienteles.
A number of studies suggest both positive and negative ways in which
financial inclusion could affect financial stability, which is why Morgan and
Pontines (2014) raise the question of whether financial stability and financial
inclusion are substitutes or complements. They examine the effects of various
measures of financial inclusion on some measures of financial stability,
including bank non-performing loans and bank Z-scores. They find evidence
indicating that a bigger share of lending to small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) boosts financial stability, mainly by reducing non-performing loans
and the probability of default.
It has been observed that expanding access to credit without strong super-
vision poses risks for both financial institutions and their customers. Certain
policies associated with financial inclusion efforts, such as credit quotas and
interest rate caps, can have destabilising effects in some contexts. This can
happen when policies distort incentives for lenders and borrowers, thereby
reducing asset quality or providing weak incentives for new banks to enter
the market. Imboden (2020), who talks about synergies in the presence of
trade-offs, suggests that reinforcement of synergies between stability and
inclusion and mitigation of the associated risks can be achieved by apply-
ing policy and regulatory enablers of digital financial inclusion, loosening
constraints on financial inclusion with stability in mind, and by applying
a risk-based approach to regulation. Likewise, Melecky et al. (2016) talk
about synergies while suggesting that a rapid increase in financial inclusion
in credit can impair financial stability, because not everyone is creditworthy
or can handle credit responsibly. They point out that trade-offs between inclu-
sion and stability could arise as an unintended consequence of bad or badly
implemented polices. Cihak et al. (2016) examine a wide array of measures of
The implications of fintech for financial stability and inclusion 173
cial institutions may view the underbanked and unbanked as being too costly
to be served profitably, which is where fintechs come in. With respect to their
contribution to financial inclusion, Tse et al. (2020) classify fintechs into
five categories: game changers, snipers, atomisers, amplifiers and educators.
The game changers offer traditional banking products and services (such as
money transfers) at considerably lower fees and commissions. The atomisers
provide incumbent banks’ products with minimum price thresholds that are
too high for many to access. Examples are micro-credit, micro-insurance,
micro-savings, micro-pensions, micro-investments (also called fractional
trading) and low-cost “robo-advising”. The snipers offer products addressing
specific customer needs, including loan advances, specific mobile payments
and partial salary-taking. The amplifiers expand access to existing financial
products to a larger audience via more advanced risk calculation techniques.
The educators simplify the understanding of existing financial products.
someone living below the poverty line and suffering from food insecurity? It
is unlikely that this person will be better off because, thanks to fintech, he or
she can pay with a mobile phone, which they do not have anyway. We are sup-
posed to believe that financial inclusion, which is facilitated by fintech, boosts
savings (Aportela, 1999; Allen et al., 2016), reduces income inequality and
poverty (Burgess and Pande, 2005; Beck et al., 2007; Bruhn and Love, 2009),
enhances employment (Prasad, 2010), improves mental well-being (Karlan
and Zinman, 2010; Angelucci et al., 2013), encourages education (Flug et al.,
1998), helps with making better decisions (Mani et al., 2013), and enhances
new firm creation (Guiso et al., 2004; Klapper et al., 2006; Banerjee et al.,
2015). With propaganda like this, there is no wonder that the financial sector
has become the jewel in the crown, even though it involves mostly parasitic
activities, and that fintech is hyped on a continuous basis.
9. The regulation of fintech
Fintech firms are financial institutions that use technology intensively; nev-
ertheless, they are still financial institutions. If financial regulation, the regu-
lation of financial institutions and markets, can be justified on some grounds,
then fintech firms must be regulated on the same grounds. However, different
financial institutions are regulated in different ways, with varying degrees
of stringency. If fintechs are different from traditional financial institutions,
they should be regulated differently. Again, it must be emphasised here that
“fintech” as used in this chapter refers to the new firms utilising technology to
provide financial services.
A current debate focuses on whether fintechs are similar to the unregulated
or lightly regulated shadow banking institutions. Irrespective of whether they
are similar to shadow banking institutions, they should not be exempt from
regulation, even though some would argue that the regulation of shadow
banking is undesirable. Fintechs should not be exempt from regulation on
the grounds that they are revolutionising finance and contributing to human
welfare. We have already seen that fintech is allegedly conducive to welfare
and prosperity because fintechs boost financial stability and inclusion and
help with the alleviation of poverty and reduction of inequality. These dubious
claims should not be used as a justification for exempting fintechs from regula-
tion or regulating them lightly. Naturally, there are those who believe that any
regulation of anything is bad and should not be resorted to.
An important justification for financial regulation is to prevent or reduce the
extent of malpractices and fraudulent behaviour in the financial sector, which
can contribute to financial stability. Consumer protection is another motive for
combatting fraud. Sherter (2010) quotes James Galbraith as saying that fraud
is the best theory to explain what caused the global financial crisis. He goes on
to suggest, “fraud was, is and will continue to be a central feature of financial
crashes, as recent history attests”. The GFC, according to Reurink (2016),
“revealed rampant fraud in the mortgage industry, Ponzi schemes perpetrated
in major investment funds, illegal manipulation of key benchmark rates, and
widespread mis-selling of complex financial derivatives instruments to both
176
The regulation of fintech 177
The World Economic Forum notes that fraud and financial crime constitute
a trillion-dollar industry, in which the participants commit forgery, credit
scams and insider threats, involving deception of financial personnel or
services to commit theft. Technology plays a big role in enabling this kind
of criminal activity, as the Forum asserts that financial crime is inherent in
automation and digitisation (Hasham et al., 2019). The use of technology
is a double-edged sword as far as fraud is concerned. On the one hand, it is
arguable that technology can be used to detect and prevent (or at least reduce)
financial fraud. On the other hand, technology enables fraud. A technolog-
ically inept criminal may use a gun or a knife to rob someone who has just
got some cash from an ATM. A tech-savvy criminal hacks the victim’s bank
account and wipes out the balance with a click of a mouse.
While technology serves investigators and prosecutors in their fight against
crime, it has also given criminals an easy way to indulge in fraudulent prac-
tices. The question is whether technology leads to more or less fraud and
financial crime. Choudhary (2020) reflects this mixed feeling about the effect
of technology while Zasarsky (2019) uses the expression “double-edged
sword”, suggesting, “whether they originate internally or from third-party
partners or external sources, a common element in many financial crimes is
technology”. As technology evolves, criminals become increasingly sophis-
ticated in committing crime. In some cases, they plant malware that remains
dormant for months while it learns about a company’s network before activat-
ing itself. Blockchain is one area where both criminals and law enforcement
see opportunity.
While financial crime has existed since people first exchanged currency for
goods and services, technology is a game changer as far as financial criminals
The regulation of fintech 181
and fraudsters are concerned. It is widely believed that technology (like finan-
cial engineering) is conducive to financial fraud. In response to the inaugural
KPMG global banking fraud survey, 61% of the participating banks reported
an increase in external fraud in value and volume over the period 2016–18
(Faulkner et al., 2019). Banks across the world said that cyber-related fraud,
often leveraging information obtained from data breaches, were their most sig-
nificant fraud challenge, particularly because an increasing proportion of bank
customer interactions are conducted through digital channels (the essence of
fintech). They reported an increase in cyber-attacks, scams, identity theft and
“cardholder not present” fraud. Fraudsters are finding new ways to steal from
banks and their customers, increasingly switching from account takeover to
scams by manipulating and coercing customers into providing access to their
bank accounts or into making payments to the fraudsters.
The accelerated shift to online banking and mobile transactions has forced
financial institutions to re-evaluate the resilience of their fraud management
strategies. Choudhary (2020) argues that technology itself is the best tool for
beating the new techniques used by fraudsters because “it can directly under-
mine some of the efforts of financial criminals”. She suggests that technology
enables financial investigations by digging through mountains of data to find
links that criminals tend to overlook. Artificial Intelligence, for example,
can be used to monitor communications and data that indicate misconduct
or criminal activity. Lochy (2019) suggests that technology enables the use
of risk-based authentication, whereby a fraud-detection engine is used to
formulate a risk profile that is used to determine the required level of security
(authentication). Customer analytics can be used to identify irregularities in
behaviour.
As we saw in Chapter 4, the technologies that enable intelligence to be
gathered from a vast amount of information go beyond artificial intelligence
to include machine learning, cloud computing, robotics and the Internet of
Things. Cotter (2019) argues that these technologies “are transforming the
approach to compliance, streamlining processes such as Know Your Customer
(KYC) and helping to uncover previously hidden patterns and networks
of potential financial crime activity”. In a worldwide survey conducted by
Refinitive (2019), 97% of the respondents expressed the view that technology
can contribute significantly to the prevention or alleviation of financial crime,
with cloud-based data and technology being the top choice, followed by AI
and ML tools. However, the same survey shows that financial institutions are
struggling to win the fight against financial crime, as 73% of the respondents
said that they focus on “box ticking” to be compliant with regulatory require-
ments rather than trying to prevent fraud.
A more specific list of the kinds of technology used to fight financial crime
is presented by Burns (2018), where the top five are AI, blockchain, biom-
182 Fintech
We have seen that technology is both conducive to and the means to fighting
financial crime. Several questions arise as a result of the advent of the fintech
industry and the new, technology-driven modes of providing financial ser-
vices. Will the spread of fintech lead to more fraud and financial crime? Do
fintechs commit fraud? What is the incidence of corporate failure in the fintech
industry? The answers to these questions are relevant to the issue of how and
how far the fintech industry should be regulated.
Starting with the first question of whether the spread of fintech will lead
to more financial crime, the answer seems to be in the affirmative according
to the views of observers and commentators. Harrington (2017) argues that
fintech start-ups aim to disrupt current practices and do it fast, but disruption
can also create new opportunities for fraud. He also suggests that the lack of
experience in the provision of financial services may be related to increased
vulnerability to financial crime. Likewise, Sharma (2021) argues, “technology
has made financial transactions ridiculously easy”, as hundreds of millions
are transferring billions with a few taps on a screen. Not surprisingly, he adds,
“fraud and illegal activity has picked up in the fintech space, too”.
The best way to answer the second question, whether fintechs commit
fraud, is to tell some real-life stories. The first is that of the German fintech
“unicorn” Wirecard, which is described by Birch (2020) as “one of the biggest
corporate frauds in history”. The company offered its customers electronic
payment transaction services and risk management, as well as the issuing
and processing of physical cards. The Wirecard fiasco consists of a series of
accounting scandals that resulted in the insolvency of the company. On 25
June 2020, Wirecard filed for insolvency after revelations that €1.9 billion was
“missing”, and the termination and arrest of its CEO. Since then, questions
have been raised with regards to the regulatory failure on the part of German
The regulation of fintech 183
decisions by utilising AI). Irrespective of the reason, failure means losses for
funders and customers, with negative consequences for inclusion and stability.
This is where regulation comes in.
At least five kinds of risk to consumers are associated with fintech. The
first is the lack of understanding, as a typical consumer is unlikely to have full
knowledge of the underlying products. The second is the risk of mis-selling
of products as technology may inadvertently (or intentionally) provide new
means for misleading consumers, exposing them to fraudulent activities. The
third is the risk of financial exclusion, as increasing digitisation may exclude
the old, the vulnerable, and those with computer illiteracy. The fourth pertains
to data, as consumers are vulnerable to the loss of data, and they may not
understand how and for what purpose their data are used. The fifth is reduced
competition as markets get dominated by a small number of large firms
because of economies of scale in technology and data handling.
Risks to firms arise because the development of fintech has led to intensi-
fication of competitive pressures, which means that most firms will struggle
to survive. Then there is the risk of governance, as board members and senior
management may not have sufficient understanding of fintech and related
risks, which means that they may be unable to identify, measure, manage and
control the risks arising from intensive use of technology. Technology risk,
which arises from increased reliance on technology, affects operational resil-
ience. Also problematical is the increasing use of outsourcing to third-party
providers of technology and data. Fintech may prove to be yet another example
of the familiar story of business developments running ahead of the ability of
some firms to put in place the systems and controls necessary to manage the
underlying risks.
Firms are exposed to the risk of data handling. While they are expected to
meet existing data protection requirements, they also need to take a proactive
approach to the possibility that regulators entertain the idea of a fundamental
re-thinking of data privacy, security and protection. The potential for misuse
and concerns about data privacy and protection intensify as customer data
become more valuable and sought after. Furthermore, data limitations may
make it difficult for firms to validate outcomes, particularly when artificial
intelligence is used to analyse data sets for the purpose of generating solutions.
Further risks pertain to compliance with anti-money laundering require-
ments. Some fintech applications raise difficult legal questions, particularly
when cross-border operations extend across different national legal and regu-
latory frameworks. As far as business model viability is concerned, regulatory
requirements may have an impact on a firm’s strategy and business model
because some business opportunities may be constrained by regulators (for
example, restrictions on sales of some products to more vulnerable and less
sophisticated consumers and retail investors). Firms may also need to adjust
their products in response to regulatory requirements.
The fintech industry is still small relative to the size of the traditional finan-
cial system, and no new fintech firm is big enough to be too big to fail or qualify
188 Fintech
of new financial service providers can aggravate the volatility of existing bank
funding sources, leading to a higher level of liquidity risk.
Figure 9.1 depicts the regulatory response to the fintech risks affecting
consumers, firms and financial stability. Regulators respond to the risks to
which consumers and firms are exposed by adjusting the regulatory perimeter.
Specific responses to risks to consumers include measures of consumer and
data protection. Specific responses to the risks facing firms include govern-
ance, risk management and operation resilience. As far as risks to financial sta-
bility are concerned, the response takes the form of data analysis and emerging
regulatory interventions. Perhaps it is appropriate here to shed some light on
some of the underlying concepts.
As is the case with other segments of the financial sector, the fintech industry
must be subject to regulation for the purpose of consumer protection and the
maintenance of financial stability. According to KPMG (2019), the regulatory
response to fintech has evolved through three stages. In the first stage, the
focus was on the benefits of fintech and the desire to support the adoption
of financial technology. Accordingly, regulatory intervention took the form
of fine-tuning to deal with the impact of fintech on the provision of financial
services. The second stage came with the progress of fintech, as regulators
began to worry increasingly about the risks faced by customers, as well as
risks to financial services firms and financial stability. In the third stage, which
is ongoing, regulators have been taking specific actions in response to these
risks. These actions have led to the development of international standards,
which have predominantly taken the form of high-level principles, while
national implementation varies across jurisdictions. The third stage is also
characterised by the implementation of prescriptive national rules and shifts in
supervisory priorities.
The list of regulatory responses to fintech-related risks has been growing
as the adoption of technology continues, leading to the evolution of associ-
ated risks. While it started as a collection of high-level principles or reliance
on existing regulatory requirements, legislation and rules, the response has
evolved into a more detailed application of new rules and guidance to specific
fintech-related activities. However, regulators have not yet come up with
a one-for-one mapping of regulatory responses to each identified risk, even
though a mapping like this is on the agenda.
An example of the general principles is the “ten considerations” for banks
and their supervisors set out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
(BCBS, 2018). These principles pertain to the need to ensure safety and
soundness and high compliance standards without inhibiting beneficial inno-
vation in the banking sector, the key fintech-related risks, the implications for
banks of the use of innovative enabling technologies and the growing use of
third parties, cross-sectoral co-operation between bank supervisors and other
authorities, international co-operation between bank supervisors, and adapta-
tion of the supervisory skill set. They are also about potential opportunities
for supervisors to use innovative technologies (“suptech”), the relevance of
existing regulatory frameworks for new innovative business models, and key
features of regulatory initiatives set up to facilitate fintech innovation.
As in Basel I, II and III, these are general principles that guide bank regula-
tors. The emerging regulatory problem, however, does not lie with traditional
192 Fintech
banks but rather with emerging fintech firms. Despite the growing number of
sets of fintech-related international principles and standards, the implementa-
tion of these principles and standards remains very uneven and inconsistent
at a national level, while some countries have introduced very detailed reg-
ulations in some specific areas. Figure 9.2 shows a mapping of regulatory
responses to some fintech activities. The following is a brief description of
regulatory responses.
While the advent of fintech opens up new opportunities, it comes with potential
risks to consumers and investors and, more broadly, to financial stability and
integrity, which financial regulation seeks to mitigate. As for opportunities, it
is widely believed that fintech strengthens financial development, inclusion
and efficiency. Based on this belief, regulatory authorities are adjusting their
policy frameworks and providing guidance based on their assessments of the
implications of emerging technologies for the financial sector. Policy-makers
seek to maximise the benefits of fintech while minimising potential risks for
the financial system. However, this is easier said than done as regulators face
several challenges. Fintech developments present issues that are beyond the
traditional scope of the regulatory authorities, and the speed of innovation
makes it difficult for regulators to respond appropriately and in a timely
manner. Complications arise because of trade-offs between different policy
objectives.
It is not difficult to understand why the fintech industry must be regulated.
After all, the global financial crisis saw a number of major financial institu-
tions go bankrupt and millions of people lose a substantial amount of wealth.
Furthermore, fintech companies are entrusted with sensitive data and even
people’s wealth. It follows that regulation makes sense. However, it should
not be about how much regulation, but rather about the quality of regulation.
10. The fintech hype
197
198 Fintech
which was up to 20% cheaper than what was produced by integrated mills.
Likewise, video streaming companies such as Netflix drove out video rental
companies (such as Blockbusters). Wikipedia is arguably a disruptor because
it has put Encyclopaedia Britannica out of business.
Some of these claims are questionable. For example, Wikipedia has not
put Encyclopaedia Britannica out of business—it is just that Britannica is no
longer produced in a print form. The comparison between the two products is
ludicrous, as Britannica is written by experts in their fields whereas Wikipedia
is written by anyone in a style that makes each piece a disjointed collection
of citations taken from various places. This is why each line in any piece in
Wikipedia contains three references or more. In Britannica, articles are written
by experts on the topic; in Wikipedia it can vary from an expert to someone
who once read a mediocre book about the underlying topic. The joke goes
that, if you write a piece for Wikipedia, make sure you reference statements
such as “the sun rises in the east” and that water has the chemical formula
H2O. Another joke goes that, if someone starts talking nonsense, they will be
accused of getting their information from Wikipedia. Students are often told
not to cite Wikipedia or not to consult Wikipedia as a background source. The
same can be said about online education: it is a lucrative business, but it can
never replace face-to-face education because of the importance of the human
touch. God help us all if doctors and engineers were to get their qualifications
by studying online. The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated vividly the peril
of online education.
Disruptive innovations include the electronic calculator, which replaced the
slide rule, and the diesel internal combustion engine, which replaced the steam
(external combustion) engine. Is fintech as disruptive as the electronic calcula-
tor and the diesel engine? In what way is fintech disruptive? Schindler (2017)
implies that it is disruptive in the sense that it has the potential to transform the
financial system, which (according to him) explains why there is so much hype
around it, and why people are excited about it. Iyer (2018) lists eight ways
in which fintech is disrupting financial services (or the traditional financial
ecosystem) for the better. Let us consider these ways.
Number one on the list is that online cashless transaction systems facilitate
online shopping. The fact of the matter is that online shopping has become
common as a result of lockdown. Most people would prefer to do shopping in
a physical store, and most people are apprehensive about putting their credit
cards on a website they have not dealt with before. The second on Iyer’s list
is that corporate online payment systems enable firms to collect payments on
services rendered and make payments on services utilised. This, however, is
far from being universal, as thousands of small businesses deal in cash. This is
why the coercive power of the government is needed to get rid of cash. Number
three is that trading platforms do a better job than human traders by collecting
The fintech hype 201
and analysing data to uncover trends, provide aggregated market views, and
generate forecasts, thereby boosting potential profit. No one, however, has
produced any evidence to show that automated trading is more profitable.
Number four is that online and mobile banking/money transfer solutions speed
up transactions, reduce the need for paper-based currency (cash, cheques),
and improve financial traceability. This sounds like the propaganda against
cash that is spread by the fintech evangelists. Number five, which sounds like
number three, is that automated, algorithm-driven wealth management and
personal finance systems provide accurate transactional and contextual data
to enable users to take appropriate financial decisions with little or no human
supervision. Again, no evidence is available to show that algorithms are better
than human judgment when it comes to investment decisions (George Soros
and Warren Buffett are living examples of the quality of human judgment with
respect to trading).
The list goes on. Number six is that fintech is challenging traditional insur-
ance companies’ positions in the value chain by enabling the creation of prod-
ucts tailored to customers’ specific needs. It is not obvious why something like
this needs artificial intelligence or another fancy technology. Number seven
is that P2P lending platforms enable individuals to borrow and lend money
without the involvement of intermediary financial institutions. That is right,
but it means that lenders get exposed to significant counterparty risk. Number
eight is that new cutting-edge technologies are strengthening cyber-security
and national financial security. That is right, but these cutting-edge technol-
ogies also help fraudsters and cyber-criminals. Nothing whatsoever in these
claims indicates any disruptive power in the same sense as in the examples
presented by Christensen (2021) and Moore (2019).
Claims of the demise of traditional banking are grossly exaggerated. Joly
and Frachon (2018) suggest, “much fuss has been made in recent years about
the disruptive impact of financial technology (fintech) upon our industry”.
They argue, “there is more to modern banking than just fin and tech and
transactions”. Likewise, Myers (2016) argues, while “the hype is now reaching
a fevered pitch”, he agrees with the view, “some of the more cutting-edge tech-
nologies in the market could fall short of their goal of disrupting banking due
to acquisitions and partnerships with the very organizations they’re looking to
change”. He goes on to suggest, “the U.S. banking sector is so entrenched and
protected that challenging it from the outside is an exercise in futility” and “it’s
highly unlikely that a startup will come around and pose a real threat to the
likes of Bank of America or Chase anytime soon”. Van Loo (2018) notes that
fintechs face two entry barriers: the ability of incumbent banks to block market
access and the difficulty of obtaining a bank licence. Banks, he concludes,
hold the cards. The alleged disruptors are in a much weaker position than the
alleged disruptees.
202 Fintech
It is not clear why the finance industry claims monopoly over the inventions
used for the provision of financial services the modern way. In Chapter 4
we saw that all the technologies that come under fintech have applications
in other fields. Yet, we hear about fintech but not med-tech, space-tech or
anything-else-tech. If anything, the use of technology for medical diagnosis is
much more useful for humanity than using the same technology to pay without
using cash, which in itself (cash) is a great invention. Even if the internet is
claimed as an exclusive fintech-related invention, it does not match, in terms of
contribution to human welfare, some of humanity’s great inventions.
Table 10.1 presents three different rankings of inventions according to
Gormley (2020), Constable and Somerville (2021), and Fallows (2013).
While any ranking is debatable, similarities can be observed. Out of the three
rankings, only Fallows (2013) lists the internet as one of the top 10 inventions,
alongside electricity, running water and refrigeration. It is interesting to see
that, while the telephone appears as one of the greatest inventions, the mobile
phone does not. Robert Gordon, an eminent American economist, is known to
have shown two pictures in one of his presentations: one picture was a mobile
phone and the other was a toilet. He then asked the question, “Which one are
you willing to give up?” For Gordon, indoor plumbing changed how people
live, but mobile phones are “just a handier form of what already exists”
(Aeppel, 2014).
Let us now discuss the views on how the internet compares with other great
inventions. Ratner (2016) sees the invention of the internet as responsible
for transforming communication, commerce, entertainment and politics. The
internet is perceived to be a great invention because life without the internet
is unimaginable for most people. That is true, but for most people life without
a mobile phone would be unimaginable even though no one would give up
their toilet just to keep the mobile phone. One advantage of the internet is that
people get access to a wide range of information, but one disadvantage is that
the internet allows children to access pornography. It is also used by scammers
and sexual predators to lure their victims. The internet is supposed to be useful
because it allows social media, but what is the contribution to human welfare
of someone telling his friends that he is having a drink in a particular bar in
Bangkok, even though that is fun? This, of course, does not alter the fact that
an enormous advantage of the internet is telecommunication. The internet is
useful and fun, but it is by no means more useful than penicillin.
The view that the internet is “certainly not the greatest invention of the past
millennium” is expressed by Gormley (2020), who suggests, “it might not
even make the top ten”. Gordon (2000) expresses a similar view by arguing
The fintech hype 203
that surfing the internet may be fun, but it represents a far smaller increment
in the standard of living than what has been achieved with the help of other
inventions, such as the electric light, the electric motor, cars and airplanes, new
materials, the telephone, radio and television, and indoor plumbing. Gordon
disputes the claim that the “new economy” (the internet and the accompanying
acceleration of technical change in computers and telecommunications) is an
Industrial Revolution that is equal in importance to, or even more important
than, the Second Industrial Revolution of 1860–1900, which gave us electric-
ity, motor and air transport, motion pictures, radio and indoor plumbing, and
made the golden age of productivity growth possible. He raises doubts about
the validity of comparing the internet with the great inventions of the past.
Gordon argues that the internet fails the hurdle test as a great invention on
several counts. First, the invention of the internet has not boosted growth in the
demand for computers; all of that growth can be interpreted simply as the same
unit-elastic response to the decline in computer prices as was prevalent prior
204 Fintech
holds and firms to access online payments and financing. Well, let us hope
that the pandemic will not last for ever and that this alleged contribution to
fintech will not be sought after. The fact of the matter is that the pandemic has
provided a boost for fintech.
Some of the alleged contributions of fintech to human welfare are trivial.
While it may be “cool” to pay with a mobile phone or an implanted chip,
most people could not care less about that because it is not a life changer, just
extravaganza. Some proclaimed contributions are fictitious, such as the alleged
contribution of fintech to economic growth and public finance. There are better
ways to boost public finance than fintech, which are intentionally overlooked,
most notably overhauling the tax code, which favours capital over labour and
the super-rich over the poor and middle class. Some alleged contributions of
fintech are unrealistic or counterintuitive, even dishonest. The most outrageous
example in this respect is that fintech is conducive to the reduction of poverty
and inequality. In reality, the exact opposite is true, as technology in general
favours capital over labour—look no further than inequality in the Silicon
Valley. Wipf (2021) shows that income inequality in the Silicon Valley has
grown twice as quickly as the rest of the state (California) and nation over
the past 10 years. The top 16% of Silicon Valley households hold 81% of the
region’s wealth, while the bottom 53% hold 2% only. Nearly one out of five
Silicon Valley households have no savings, which has made it more difficult
to buy food or care for family members during the pandemic.
Technology creates unemployment, and this is why fintech will not reduce
inequality and poverty, which are related. This is an example of some pro-
claimed benefits of fintech that are not worthwhile in terms of costs and
benefits. Fintech is arguably conducive to efficiency and cost cutting, because
fintechs do not need employees or infrastructure. If fintechs take over the busi-
ness of traditional banks, thousands of people will lose their jobs (bank tellers,
for one category). Yes, operating costs will be reduced, boosting profitability
and making executives and shareholders rich. This is the benefit, but the cost
is unemployment, which leads to poverty and inequality. Efficiency gains in
a fintech world are not worthwhile in terms of costs and benefits, the benefits
of shareholders and executives, and the social costs of unemployment.
Last, but not least, fintech has a sinister side, because fintechs promote
and participate actively in the war on cash, allegedly a sign of progress. Just
like predicting the end of banking as we know it, some pundits predict that
cash will disappear, thanks mainly to the wonderful cash substitutes created
by fintech such as mobile payments and digital wallets (in addition to credit
cards). In truth, cash is the best friend of the underprivileged, who have been
increasing in number in the US, let alone in the third world. According to Edin
and Shaefer (2016), the number of US residents who are struggling to survive
on just $2 per day has more than doubled since 1996 to 1.5 million households.
The fintech hype 207
Similarly, the number of people in America who either do not have a bank
account (unbanked) or use cheque cashers and pawn shops to meet their
banking needs (underbanked) went up from 31 million households in 2009 to
35 million in 2013. The underprivileged and poor rely on cash, as other modes
of payment may not be available or accessible.
A large-scale move to digital financial services could create concerns about
a “surveillance state”. This could happen if, for example, the government
has access to payment data. If data access is instead restricted to companies,
concerns about privacy (as well as data monopolies) could arise. While issues
related to government or private company use of payment data are always rele-
vant, there is a risk that the checks and balances provided by either democratic
oversight or business regulation could be short-circuited during crises. Fintech
enables the war on cash and enhances mass surveillance.
The dark side of fintech is exposed by Buckley et al. (2019), who refer to
a “long-term process of digitization and datafication” aided by new technolo-
gies. This process, according to them, has led to the rise of cyber-security and
technological risks, which are evolving into “major threats to financial stability
and national security”. They identify two issues arising from the entry of
major technology firms into finance: (i) new forms of potentially systemically
important infrastructure (such as data and cloud services providers), and (ii)
monopolistic or oligopolistic outcomes associated with the economies of scope
and scale and network effects. As a result, they see a potential rise in systemic
risk, leading to new forms of the “too big to fail” and “too connected to fail”
phenomena. As a result, they propose basic principles about how such risks
can be monitored and addressed. The moral of the story is that fintech will not
bring only milk and honey.
208 Fintech
Finance is the industry that “manufactures” money, but it is also the industry of
fraud and parasitic activities. When finance is combined with state-of-the-art
technology, more fraud and parasitic activities are enabled. Take, for example,
the following comic but realistic description of what happens in the financial
sector using the two-cow analogy (for example, https://www.sadanduseless
.com/a-tale-of-two-cows-funny/):
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed companies, using
letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/
equity swap with an associated general offer, so that you get all four cows back,
with a tax exemption for five cows. The milk rights of the six cows are transferred
via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority
shareholder, who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company. The
annual report says the company owns the eight cows, with an option on one more.
Fintech assists this kind of parasitic activity and enables fraudsters. However,
the most worrying aspect of fintech is the war on cash, as a cashless society
will boost the profitability of financial institutions in general and fintechs
in particular at the expense of ordinary people. This is why fintechs such as
PayPal are active participants in the war on cash and providers and financiers
of propaganda against the use of cash, one of humanity’s great inventions.
Fintech is grossly hyped. Crosman (2015) refers to other descriptions of
fintech, such as “frothy” and “immature”. Contagious enthusiasm has led
to the pouring of money into fintech firms, but this is starting to look like
a fad. On this occasion, however, investment in fintechs has not matched
the excesses of the late 1990s, when a company name with a dot-com suffix
“conferred instant mystique and capital”, as Crosman puts it. As the market
cools, only the fittest will survive. We have to bear in mind the dot-com fiasco
witnessed the survival of the fittest and the end of a transitory hype. Fintech
will eventually be used to describe a historical period of irrational exuberance,
just like the dot-com episode.
As a matter of fact, the term “fintech” is redundant. If it refers to the
technology used in the provision of financial services, such as artificial intel-
ligence, this is a misrepresentation of the facts on the ground. The term gives
the wrong impression that the technology was invented either by the financial
sector (such as cash and the products of financial engineering) or exclusively
for it (such as the ATM and cash-counting machines). In reality, the use of
the same technology in fields other than finance makes some contribution to
human welfare whereas it is no more than extravaganza in finance. This is the
difference between using some technology for medical diagnosis and using
the same technology to enable someone to pay for a burger by waving a hand.
The fintech hype 209
One may say that blockchain and cryptos are finance inventions, but the fact of
the matter is that Mr (or Ms) Satoshi is a brilliant computer scientist who used
blockchain to manufacture bitcoin, which (as it turned out) proved to be the
most profitable application. Remember, however, that blockchain is hyped on
the promise that it will change our lives because it can be used in other human
endeavours.
If “fintech” refers to the industry in a broad sense, there is nothing special
because financial institutions have always used technology. The ATM was
a better technology than mobile payments, and cash itself was a great inven-
tion. It is the finance service industry, not fintech. If “fintech” refers to the
industry in a narrow sense (the new technology-based financial services
providers), there is no reason why traditional financial institutions cannot use
the same technology as the start-ups, which are not disruptors in any shape or
form. Thus, the word fintech is redundant—with the passage of time, it will
pale into insignificance.
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Index
accessibility 125 artificial neural network (ANN) 59
account takeover 97 artificial superintelligence (ASI) 56
Adalid, R. 146 Ashton, K. 67
Adams, J. 108 ASI See artificial superintelligence (ASI)
Adil, M. 83 Asian financial crisis 164, 165
advance-fee frauds 178 Asian regulators 195
Africrypt 159 Astroturfing campaigns 117
Agamben, G. 72 audit regulation 166
aggregators 68 Azulay, D. 58
AGI See artificial general intelligence
(AGI) Baek, C. 149
Agrawal, A.J. 185 bail-in legislation 134, 135
Aguayo, F.Z. 95 balance sheet lenders 33
Agur, I. 20 Bali Fintech Agenda (BFA) 13
Ahamed, M.M. 172 Bambrough, B. 159
AI See artificial intelligence (AI) Banga, A. 110
Alabi, K. 149 Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
alchemists 107 125, 135
Aliber, R.Z. 146 banking 34, 36
Allen, F. 165, 168 shadow 49–52
Allen, R. 31 Bank of England 125, 165
Ally 34 banks, benefits for 124, 134
alternative finance 8, 11 Bank Secrecy Act 116
Alt, R. 27 Basel Committee on Banking
AML see anti-money laundering (AML) Supervision (BCBS) 13, 29, 87–9,
Andjelic, J. 19, 47 188, 190, 191
Andriotis, A.M. 107 Baur, D.G. 150–52
ANI See artificial narrow intelligence Bavin, E. 148
(ANI) B2B See business-to-business (B2B)
ANN see artificial neural network (ANN) B2C See business-to-consumer (B2C)
anti-counterfeiting technology 122 BCBS See Basel Committee on Banking
anti-money laundering (AML) 73, 115, Supervision (BCBS)
180, 187 Bentestuen, T. 114
API See Application Programming Bernanke, B. 49
Interface (API) Bernie Madoff 166, 179
Apple Pay 7 Better Than Cash Alliance (BTCA) 109,
Application Programming Interface 110
(API) 46, 55 Bettinger, A.L. 3
Arner, D.W. 7, 24–7 BFA See Bali Fintech Agenda (BFA)
artificial general intelligence (AGI) 56 big data 63–5
artificial intelligence (AI) 55–8, 181 biological identifiers 71
artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) 56
227
228 Fintech