1 s2.0 S0048969720329144 Main
1 s2.0 S0048969720329144 Main
1 s2.0 S0048969720329144 Main
Book Review
G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T
Source: NASA/GISS
Source: NASA/GISS
Source: NASA/GISS
Source: Karl and Trenberth, 2003 (With permission from the American Association for the
Advancement of Science)
Adaptation
Source: NASA/GISS
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles
Received 21 March 2020 (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components
Received in revised form 10 May 2020 of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global
Accepted 10 May 2020
warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases
Available online 15 May 2020
(GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention
Editor: Damia Barcelo due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to
heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne dis-
eases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied
science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate ex-
treme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction interven-
tion in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation
option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction
among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of cli-
mate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures
like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through
global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
⁎ Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umea, Sweden.
E-mail address: mukhtar.ahmed@slu.se.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397
0048-9697/© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
2 M. Ahmed / Science of the Total Environment 734 (2020) 139397
Introduction to Modern Climate Change is an excellent attempt to Ogtrop et al., 2014). Similarly, according to the NOAA (National Oceanic
define, elaborate and discuss broad spectrum of knowledge and exper- and Atmospheric Administration), the 2019 was the second warmest
tise of climate change, radiation and energy balance, climate model, year on record (1.15 °C above preindustrial average (1880–1900)) and
why and how the climate is changing with adaptation and mitigation the global annual average land and ocean surface temperature have in-
policies for future. The book has been divided into fourteen chapters; creased at a rate of 0.07 °C per decade since 1880. However, it is twice
each highlighting specific issues/challenges related to climate change. average rate of increase since 1981 (0.18 °C). Furthermore, global
The introductory chapter, “An introduction to the climate problem” warming trend pushes April temperature into record as 2020 heads
provides a nice overview regarding climate and climate change defini- for disquieting milestones (Fig. 4).
tion, coordinate system of earth and importance of this book to under- The importance of energy “the capacity to do work”, power, internal
stand climate change to design a risk management tool for future energy, use of kelvin scale and distribution of solar radiation into visible,
climate scenarios. The difference between weather and climate was pre- infrared and ultraviolet was discussed in chapter 3 with the emphasis
sented to make short term and long term decisions. Variability in the that climate is all about energy flow. Energy travels in the form of
temperature and spatio-temporal distribution in the amount, duration packets known as photons, earlier described by Planck's quantum the-
and intensity of precipitation was described as an important indicator ory of radiation, and smallest form of energy absorbed or emitted by
of climate change. The best way to get idea about the climate of a region body is known as quantum. Wien's displacement law which shows rela-
is by knowing its position using coordinate system. A coordinate system tionship between wavelength and temperature was elaborated. The
consists of latitude (distance in the north–south direction between the equation used to present this relationship is:
location and the equator) and longitude (angle in the east or west direc-
tion, from the prime meridian) (Fig. 1). The importance of latitude– 3000
λmax ¼ ð1Þ
longitude in atmospheric forecast model was documented by T
Staniforth and Thuburn (2012). Furthermore, the unique feature in
this chapter is author emphasis on the consideration of the voice from Here λmax=wavelength of the peak of the emission spectrum and
the world's climate scientists and presented detail about the coordi- T = Temperature of the object.
nated global forum i.e. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The author depicts that everything emits radiation (blackbody) but
(IPCC) which was formed in 1988. overall energy remains conserved. The concepts presented in this chap-
The next chapter “Is the Climate Changing?” focuses on temperature ter are used widely now a days in the field of remote sensing, where
and variables affected due to temperature. Meanwhile, use of tempera- temperature is determined by measuring the power emitted at a partic-
ture anomaly and measurement of temperature by different indicators ular wavelength and converting this to temperature (Bacenetti et al.,
like sea surface temperature (SST), Ice, glaciers and sea level to conclude 2020; Dusadeerungsikul et al., 2020; Huang et al., 2020; Pôças et al.,
that warming is unequivocal was discussed. The author describes that 2020; Yu and Yu, 2020). The most important way to describe the distri-
warming can be studied by Paleoproxies and Paleocene–Eocene Ther- bution of solar radiation on planet earth is to develop a climate base
mal Maximum (PETM). The detail presented in this chapter can be model using concepts of albedo and latitude as discussed in Chapter 4.
used to study trend of climate change using indicators like monthly sur- The author described that the first step to understand climate is to use
face temperature anomaly, global annual average temperature anoma- energy budget calculation. Since the Sun radiates 3.8 × 1026 W (380 tril-
lies (Fig. 2) and satellite measurements of the global temperature lion W) of power to planet earth. The exact amount of solar energy hit-
trends (Fig. 3). These climate indicators play a significant role in the un- ting the planet earth can be calculated by considering earth as a sphere
derstanding of pandemic disease like COVID-19 (Bashir et al., 2020) as surrounding the Sun with the radius equal to 150 million km (Sun-
well as in the rainfall forecasting under rainfed agriculture (van earth distance). As the sphere completely encloses the Sun thus,
sunlight emitted by the Sun will fall on the interior of the sphere. The meter square surface of the sphere is 3.8 × 1026 W/2.8 × 1023 m2 =
surface area of sphere is 4πr2 = 4π(150 million km)2 = 2.8 × 1017 1360 W m−2 called as solar constant for the earth. Furthermore, concept
Km2 = 2.8 × 1023 m2. The energy emitted by the Sun falling on one- of reflectivity (Albedo, α) was presented which could be used to
Fig. 4. Global surface air temperature anomalies during April 2020 relative to 1981–2010 average (Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service).
calculate total rate of energy in (Ein) for the earth and represented by calculate surface temperature was:
the following equation: p ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
T¼ 4
ðn þ 1ÞSð1−αÞ 4σ ð6Þ
2
Ein ¼ S ð1−α ÞπR ð2Þ
The author connected this equation with real world by considering
where α = fractions of photons reflected, 1-α = fraction of photons number of layers equivalent to the amount of greenhouse gases
absorbed, S = Solar constant. However, total rate of energy per m2 of (GHGs) in the atmosphere. More the GHGs more will be the number
the earth surface area could be calculated by using following equation: of layers and ultimately higher the warming as elaborated in next
chapter.
Ein Sð1−α ÞπR2 Sð1−α Þ The flows of carbon in the ecosystem known as carbon cycle is elab-
¼ ¼ ¼ 238 Wm2 ð3Þ
area 4πR2 4 orated in Chapter 5 with description of GHGs like water vapor, CO2, N2O,
halocarbons and O3. Since elevated CO2 is main challenge of modern cli-
The author elaborates that variations in the amount of solar energy mate change, author discussed its exchange in the atmosphere, bio-
received by the planet earth is linked with latitude. Due to this reason sphere and ocean via photosynthesis, respiration, absorption and
tropics get more solar energy than mid-latitudes while polar regions re- deposition as sugar, carbonic acid and calcium carbonate. During 2010
ceive less solar energy. However, tropics have low albedo and more the concentration of CO2 was 0.0390% (390 ppm meaning that there
heating compared to high latitudes where albedo is high due to ice are 390 molecules of CO2 in every million molecules of air) but now in
(Loeb et al., 2012; Stephens et al., 2015). Earth is receiving energy April 2020 the concentration of CO2 is 416.21 ppm and it was
from the sun continuously but why it is not reaching to the same tem- 413.33 ppm in April 2019 (Fig. 5). Thus, CO2 concentration is increasing
perature as the sun was answered with the concept that rate at which day by day. This elevated CO2 have shown differential effects on differ-
earth is receiving energy from the Sun is equal to the rate the earth is ent systems such as global human nutrition (Smith and Myers, 2018),
losing energy. If earth loses energy back to space by means of blackbody nutritional quality of vegetables (Dong et al., 2018), water efficiency
radiation than P a ¼ σT 4 where P a = Power emitted per m2, T = (Varga et al., 2015), legume symbioses (Sulieman et al., 2015), nitrogen
Planet temperature and σ = Stefan–Boltzmann constant (5.67 × 10−8 cycle (Rütting and Andresen, 2015), soil organic matter composition
Wm−2/K4). Considering that the rate of energy in is equal to the rate and substrate diversity (Tfaily et al., 2018) and crop physiology and
of energy out the new equation will be: crop management (Tausz et al., 2013). The author further stated that
main CO2 comes from human activities like burning of fossil fuels and
Rate of energy in ¼ Rate of energy out deforestation which can be finger printed by the use of isotopes of car-
bon. Similarly, CH4 which has 20 times more powerful GHG than CO2
Sð1−α Þ
¼ σT 4 ð4Þ was discussed in detail. The main source of CH4 is raising of livestock
4
(Tongwane and Moeletsi, 2020), rice paddies (Qian et al., 2020) and
bacterial action on landfills and wastes (Li et al., 2020a, 2020b). Mean-
Solving Eq. (4) to get T:
while, petrochemicals industry and coal mines are also big contributor
rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi of CH4 (Gao et al., 2020). Therefore, author concluded in this chapter
4 Sð1−α Þ
T¼ ð5Þ that 35% of the CH4 emissions are natural, and 65% are due to human
4σ
activities.
Putting values in Eq. (5): The author started “Chapter 6” with assumptions that heat capacity
of the atmosphere is zero because energy in equals energy out. How-
vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
u 1360ð1−0:3Þ ever, if one layer or multilayer atmosphere is added to the planet it
u
T¼t
4
will increase temperature because of presence of GHGs but committed
4 5:67 10−8
warming or described more informally as warming “in the pipeline” is
also going on. Similarly, Radiative forcing (RF) is the transition in energy
After solving this equation the T we get is 255 K (−18 °C), but the ac- due to changes imposed on the planet earth before the adjustment of
tual earth temperature is close to 288 K so the question remains is “Why temperature. Andrews and Forster (2020) stated that RF is a fundamen-
the estimation gives such cold temperature”. The author suggested that tal quantity for understanding anthropogenic and natural drivers of past
the reason for this was that in this equation the heating of the earth also and future climate change. Therefore, RF could be used to measure cli-
known as the greenhouse effect was neglected. The author emphasize mate perturbation. The author further elaborated that GHGs has RF of
that n-layer model incorporating the number of layers in the atmo- +3.0 W/m2 and 55% role was from CO2 but net RF till now is +1.6 W/
sphere(n), the solar constant (S) and albedo (α) could be used to calcu- m2. However, aerosols and land use changes have negative RF and au-
late the surface temperature of the planet earth. The model equation to thor emphasized that we must take certain measures and build such
M. Ahmed / Science of the Total Environment 734 (2020) 139397 5
if earth reaches closest to the sun (perihelion) with tilt (obliquity) will
alter the climate due to variability in the amount of sunlight without
change in solar constant. The author considers orbital variations effect
on sunlight regulation which changes climate as Milankovitch cycles
(Campisano, 2012). Internal variability in our climate like El Niño/
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) comes from internal physics of system
has cold (La Niña) and hot (El Niño) phases. Therefore, author con-
cluded that ENSO is the dominant and best-known internal variation
in the climate system. Teleconnection of climate change and El Niño–
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was well documented by Li et al. (2020a,
2020b). Meanwhile the author described how scientist can deal with
outlier (a point that does not agree with scientific expectations). Simi-
larly, GHGs which are primarily due to human activities are responsible
for cold and hot events as evident by climate models and IPCC.
Chapter 8, “The future of our climate” has been started with projec-
tions of GHGs emissions, known as emissions scenarios. In the start au-
thor discussed relationship of GHGs with society goods consumption.
Therefore, author depicted that GDP (gross domestic product) could
be used as an indicator to check the total emissions by the society. How-
ever, population, affluence and GHGs intensity have big contribution to
GHGs emissions. Therefore, total emissions of GHGs (I) could be
expressed as product of population (P), affluence (A) and GHGs inten-
sity (T). The author further breakup T into energy intensity (EI) and car-
bon intensity (CI). Thus, increased emissions have direct relationship
with P and A which will be changing in coming century with advance-
ment of technology. The author further elaborated that it is hard to
make predictions especially about the future, but emission scenarios
could be used to do so same as IPCC. Furthermore, author discussed
about A (A1 and A2) and B (B1 and B2) scenarios where A describe
worlds with high rates of economic growth while B describes where
economic growth is slow. After this, scenarios are converted into GHG
concentrations by using carbon-cycle model. This model estimated
low, medium, and high rates of greenhouse-gas emissions for the B1,
A1B, and A2 scenarios respectively with 1.8 to 3.6 °C increased temper-
ature at the end of twenty-first century. The author depicted that tem-
perature would rise with 0.4 °C even if GHG emissions are stabilized
Fig. 5. Monthly mean CO2 (a) and atmospheric CO2 (b) at Mauna Loa observatory (Source: referred as committed warming. However, the author suggests the use
NOAA). of models in appropriate way by incorporating climatic variability to
predict climate system accurately. The author argues that the quality
and quantity of data is crucial to make progress in the field of modeling.
policies which can stabilize RF. These could be achieved by stopping ac- Different scenarios have been developed in recent decades but most im-
tivities which produce positive RF called as mitigation and doing activ- portant one includes (i) Six IPCC 1992 (IS92) scenario (ii) Six special re-
ities that produce negative RF referred as geoengineering. Feedback is port on emission Scenarios (SRES) (iii) Four RCP (Representative
another mechanism that responds to changes in the surface tempera- concentration pathways) and (iv) Nine forcing scenarios. The IS92 sce-
ture described by author affecting climate either positively or nega- nario was used for 2nd assessment report (SAR) while SRES was used in
tively. These include fast (ice–albedo, water-vapor, lapse-rate and the IPCC 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4) assessment reports. According to
cloud) and slow (carbon-cycle and vegetation) feedbacks of warming. SRES future GHGs emissions are the product of very complex dynamic
The author further made a beautiful comparison between RF and feed- systems, determined by driving forces such as demographic develop-
back. In the end of this chapter the author discussed about sensitivity ment, socio-economic development, and technological change
as increased temperature (2.0–4.5 °C) due to doubling of CO2 while in (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). Representative Concentration Pathways
term of RF it is 0.5–1.1 °C/(W/m2) with best estimate of 0.75 °C/(W/m2). (RCPs) replaced SRES in 5th assessment report (AR5) as it was needed
The Movement of the continents (tectonic motion), Sun, Earth's to predict how future global warming will contribute to climate change.
orbit (eccentricity), internal variability, GHGs and their combined effect The RCPs are a standard set of scenarios that can be used to ensure
on climate change are discussed in Chapter 7. The author depicted that starting conditions, historical data and projections so that they can
the location of the continent determines the ice sheet formation which employed consistently across the various branches of climate science.
can results in cooling of the planet. Similarly, locations of continents de- The RCPs includes four pathways: RCP2.6 (Very low forcing level, also
termine ocean circulation and change in the position of continents may referred to as RCP3PD, where ‘PD’ stands for Peak and Decline) (van
lead to change in rainfall pattern and wind distribution. Meanwhile, Vuuren et al., 2011), RCP4.5 (Medium stabilisation scenarios)
solar constant is another factor which controls climate but due to in- (Thomson et al., 2011), RCP6 (Medium stabilisation scenarios) (Masui
creased fusion in the Sun it becomes 30% brighter over this time. There- et al., 2011) and RCP8.5 (High emission scenario or business as usual)
fore, author concluded that Sun has positive RF. The position of earth (Riahi et al., 2011). Gidden et al. (2019) presented a suite of nine scenar-
from sun has a significant effect on the solar constant. Since earth ios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources. These nine
orbit is not a perfect circle and it is an ellipse whose eccentricity (the forcing scenarios have been used to develop upcoming 6th assessment
ratio of the length of the ellipse to the width) varies with time. Hence, report (AR6) based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).
as the orbit become more eccentric it will lead to increased earth-sun These set of scenarios are bounded on the low end by a 1.9 Wm−2 sce-
distance resulting to less solar constant and change in climate. However, nario ideal for analysing a world with end of century well below 2 °C
6 M. Ahmed / Science of the Total Environment 734 (2020) 139397
and on the high end by an 8.5 Wm−2 scenario, resulting increase of 5 °C solution suggested by the author. This includes carbon taxes and cap-
over preindustrial levels. These emissions data have been used by and-trade systems. Similarly, author made a beautiful comparison be-
Fiedler et al. (2019) to estimate the differences in the radiative forcing tween carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. Offsets are action taken to re-
of anthropogenic aerosol at the end of the 21st century. move CO2 from air by planting forest called as negative emissions
The main components of climate include physical impact on climate (Ainsworth et al., 2020; Bustamante et al., 2019). However, letting per-
system which describes how temperature, rainfall, sea level and ex- son to release GHGs on the expense of offsets is same as to forgive
treme events will change and what will be their impacts on humans wealthy one on sin. Therefore, the author suggested offset an immoral
are discussed in Chapter 9, “Impacts”. Since temperature is increasing action and emphasized on information dissemination as best way to
therefore, overall activities will be altered that needs to be monitored mitigate climate change.
by models. Meanwhile, the author elaborates that frequency and inten- A brief history of climate change science, policy, and politics,
sity of rainfall and drought will grow that might cause flooding, erosion, Chapter 13 is description of beginning of climate science initially
runoff and famine. Thus, predictions of future rainfall must be parame- by Joseph Fourier (1820) as greenhouse effect followed by John Tyn-
terized in climate models to avoid uncertainties. Sea level rise and acid- dall and Louis Agassiz. Similarly, the author discussed the idea of Ar-
ification are other indicators of climate change discussed by the author. rhenius as beginning the theory of human induced global warming.
The author concluded that to quantify all these impacts i.e. physical im- The author presented “Nature” in 19th century as an enemy to man-
pacts on the climate system (How temperature, precipitation, sea level, kind and the battle against nature was a battle for survival. After that,
extreme events, and other such phenomena will change) and impact of concept of ozone depletion and acid rains was discussed, and it was
such changes on human and environment we need to understand our suggested that CFC needs to be banned by phase-out process. Next
sensitivity to climate change. adaptation of Montreal protocol was reviewed, and author narrated
Since all these abrupt changes have negative impacts on humans, ag- that problem of climate change become political due to the interven-
riculture and freshwater availability therefore, the author emphasized tion of US congressman in 1988. This led to the formation of IPCC (In-
that this all should be managed by adaptation and mitigation strategies tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and treaty of Framework
(Wiebe et al., 2019; Grafakos et al., 2020; Hussain et al., 2019). Yang Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Meanwhile the Kyoto Proto-
et al. (2020) suggested landscape approach should be used to achieve col is another implementation of policies discussed by author to mit-
food security and sustainability goals particularly within the context of igate climate change.
climate change. In Chapter 10, “Exponential growth” which is directly In the last chapter, “Putting it together: A long-term policy to ad-
proportional to the size of sample was discussed but author emphasized dress climate change” the author concludes that a collaborative effort
that Exponential growth cannot go on forever, and when it ends, it often needed to implement mitigation program to reduce emissions but we
ends suddenly. Similarly, “rule of 72” referred to doubling effect, have to implement such policies which have long term goal. Meanwhile,
discounting and cost benefit effect was discussed. Meanwhile, Malthus cost benefit ratio needs to be calculated so that we can develop mitiga-
who depicted that population grows exponentially whereas, food pro- tion plan accordingly. In the end author suggested the role of individual
duction grows in a linear fashion was discussed in a beautiful way. to motivate the emissions reductions necessary to stabilize the climate.
In the Chapter 11, “Fundamentals of climate change policy” in which This requires collective and coordinated actions. Recently, COVID-19
author outline various options available to us to address climate change lockdown is one of the examples where it has been reported that this
which include adaptation, mitigation and geoengineering. Adaptation lockdown helped to minimize emissions of GHGs. For example,
means responding to the negative impacts of climate change that Muhammad et al. (2020) in their work concluded that COVID-19 is a
might also be considered as form of aid. Therefore, author emphasizes global pandemic and serious threat to human health which halt the eco-
on action before climate change occurs like construction of resilient in- nomic activities, but it is “Blessing in Disguise”, where pollution is re-
frastructure and flood insurance. Meanwhile, “Mitigation” refers to pol- ducing, and nature is reclaiming itself. Similarly, they reported that
icies that avoid climate change in the first place like reduction in GHGs this impact on environment may be short term, but we should learn
by population control or reduction in the use of goods. However, the au- from this lockdown and find ways to reduce pollution on long term
thor narrated that if this is not possible, we need to reduce greenhouse- basis. Furthermore, Rosenbloom and Markard (2020) concluded that
gas intensity by efficiently using energy resources through advance- pandemic directly threatens individuals and health systems, whereas
ment of technology (carbon-free or climate-safe). The reduced carbon climate change undermines broader natural and human systems. They
intensity and renewable energy resources include nuclear, carbon cap- suggested that climate impacts will worsen the longer we wait. So, we
ture and sequestration. The author further emphasized on the use of hy- are faced with overlapping crises that require immediate societal mobi-
droelectric, solar, wind, and biomass energy as best mitigation option lization. In general, the book will cater to the needs of climate scientist,
under changing climate. However, these have some pros and cons like modellers, researchers/scientists, undergraduate, and graduate stu-
in nuclear energy the big issue is stability of nuclear reactors and dis- dents in all fields of study. It is a valuable contribution to the current
posal of nuclear wastes. Finally, the intent of making of nuclear bomb knowledge on climate change and provides historical background, suc-
and cost are one of the big problems in the implementation of nuclear cesses, and potential for the future. I strongly recommend this book to
energy (Toon et al., 2019). Therefore, the author has given final option readers as a valuable source of information and a worthwhile addition
of carbon capture and storage, also known by its initials CCS or carbon to one's book shelf.
sequestration. Geoengineering refers to active manipulation of the cli-
mate system and is another approach the author suggested to incorpo-
rate that can be broken down into two categories, solar radiation Declaration of competing Interest
management and carbon cycle engineering.
Adaptation is not only the reliable option therefore, the author in Author declares no conflict of interest.
Chapter 12, “Mitigation policies” discussed mitigation as successful op-
tion to avoid climate change. The author suggested certain regulations References
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