Using _

data processing tools

for preparing . ·
agricultural development
projects
 FAO LIBRARY AN: 256269

Using
data processing tools
for preparing
agricultural development
projects

by
Michel Simeon

AND
AGRICULTURE
ORGANIZATION
OF THE
UNITED NATIONS
Rome, 1985
 The designations employed and the presentation
of material in this publication do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the
part of the Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations concerning the legal
status of any country, territory, city or area or
of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation
ol its frontiers or boundaries,

M-63
ISBN 92-5-102255-0

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior
permission of the copyright owner. Applications for such permission,
with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should
be addressed to the Director, Publications Division, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, Via delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100
Rome, Italy,

© FAO 1985
 iii

FOREWORD

The FAO Investment Centre's principal function is to assist member

countries in the identification and preparation of agricultural and rural
development projects for international, and sometimes local, financing. The
Investment Centre is also acknowledged as a source of assistance in the
development of national capacities for project preparation.

Since the establishment of the FAQ/World Bank Cooperative Programme

(the precursor of the Investment Centre) twenty years ago, there has been a
considerable evolution in project preparation techniques. This has been
reflected in successive revisions to the various guidelines on project
preparation published by the Investment Centre and widely used by government
agencies and consulting firms responsible for feasibility studies.

The rapidly increasing accessibility of powerful computers has

opened up exciting possibilities for project analysts and economists. Apart
from the advantage of reducing the time required for lengthy calculations,
the computer makes it possible to extend the range of analyses which are
conducted with ~ittle extra effort, improves accuracy and may contribute
towards the evolution and standardization of methodologies.

The Investment Centre has responded to these new opportunities by

developing a series of programmes designed to address the particular
requirements of agricultural project analysis. Leadership in this work has
been assumed by Michel Simeon, a Senior Economist in the Investment Centre.
In this paper, which was prepared in his spare time as a post-graduate
thesis, he reviews the types of analysis required in project preparation,
identifies various roles for computers, outlines the conceptual basis for
several programmes developed both by the Investment Centre and by other
organizations, and explains how these may be used. Annexes to the paper
include user's guides for some of the programmes.

Since believe that the paper could be of considerable use to

people outside the Investment Centre who share our interest in the
development of new methodologies for application in project preparation, I
have decided to give it wider circulation by publishing it (initially in
French and English) as part of our series of guidelines. The opinions
expressed, however, remain those of the author and are not necessarily
endorsed by the Organization.
 iv

One of the problems of a publication which deals with such a topical

subject is that it quickly becomes outdated. I see this paper, therefore,
merely as the first of a series which we will publish on the use of
computers in agricultural project analysis, releasing additional material as
and when new programmes and guides are completed.

Any comments on the material or suggestions which could contribute

to the greater usefulness of the paper would be most welcome and should be
addressed to the author.

Cedric Fernando
Director
FAO Investment Centre
 V

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION
A. General Outline
B. Working Background
C. Summary of Contents 2

II. METHODOLOGY FOR PREPARATION OF PROJECTS ,;

A. Project Cycle 4
Identification 4
Preparation 4
Appraisal 5
Execution 5
B. The Preparation Stage: Procedures and Problems 5
C. Basic Tools of Analysis 6
1. Choice of a General Method 6
2. Types of Models Used 8
a. General Characteristics 8
b. Simulation or Optimization 9
c. Determinist or Stochastic Models 10
d. The Time Factor 11
3. Problems Encountered in the Constuction of models 12
a. Quality of Data 12
b. Physical Burden of Calculations 12
c. Heterogeneity of Models 13

III. WHY COMPUTING TOOLS ARE NEEDED 14

A. Methodological Interest 14
1. ~tandardizing the Methodology 14
2. Improving Techniques 15
3. Increasing the Number of Variables taken into Account 17
4. Making Better Use of the Models 18
5. Validating the Data 19
6. Limitations 20
B. Immediate Material Advantages 21

IV. DEVELOPMENT OF THE INSTRUMENTS: IDENTIFICATION OF FUNDAMENTAL

MECHANISMS AND CONCEPTION OF PROGRAMMES 22
A. Introduction - Characteristics of the Ideal Tool
Summary of this Chapter 22
B. Interface with the User 23
1. Menu System 24
2. Command Language 25
3. Modelization Language 26
4. Treatment of Errors 26
vi

C. First Approach: Table Manipulation 27

1. General Conception 27
2. Necessary Calculation Functions 28
a. Algebraic and Elementary Handling Functions 28
b. Phasing Calculation 29
c. Functions of Calculation of Rate of Return and
Sensitivity Analysis 30
d. Financial Functions 31
(i) Calculation of Debt Service 31
(ii) Calculation of Depreciation 31
(iii) Interest on Overdraft 32
e. Functions to "create" Variables 32
(i) Automatic Repetition 32
(ii) Cyclic Repetition 32
(iii) Interpolation 32
(iv) Use of Percentages 33
(v) Exponential Compound Growth Funtion 33
(vi) Definition by Reference to Another Variable 33
3. Tables 33
D. Second Approach: Detailed Structuring of Data 33
1. General Conception 33
2. Types of Data 34
3. Calculations Performed 35
E. Third Approach: General Structuring of Data 36
1. Fundamental Concepts: Commodity, Activity, Plan 36
2. Refinements: Complementary Types of Data 38
a. Investments 39
b. Credit Operations 39
c. Transfer Activities 40
d. Aggregates 41
e. Sub-periods in the Year 42
3. Results 42
a. Standard Calculations 42
b. Calculation of Rate of Return and Sensitivity Analysis 43
c. Importance of Data Organization to the Results 43
F. A Special Case: Livestock Projects 44
1. The Problem 44
2. The Dynamic Model of the Herd 44
a. Structuring in Age Classes 45
b. Demographic Parameters 45
c. Purchase and Sales Parameters 46
d. Method of Calculation 46
3. Other Elements to be taken into Consideration 47
a. Cost/Benefit Data 47
b. Stabilization of the Size of the Herd and Feed 48
G. Advantages and Limitations - Towards and Integrated System 49
1. Respective Advantages and Limitations of the Systems
Proposed 49
2. Functional Specifications of an Integrated System
of Programmes 51
a. The Approach of Local Variables and External
Variables 51
b. The Approach of Hierarchical Organization of
Programmes 51
 vii

53
V. IMPLEMENTATION
A. State of Development of Programmes 53
1. First Approach: Table Manipulation 53
a. CBDISPLAY (World Bank) 53
b. MAN IP ( FAO) 59
(i) General Organization 59
(ii) Calculation Module 60
(iii) Printing Module 62
(iv) Correction Module 63
(v) Use of Predefined Sequences or Formats 63
(vi) Example of Use 64
c. Pico - MANIP: Programmes on Pocket Computers 65
(i) ROR-PV 65
(ii) PHASE 66
(iii) DEBT 66
(iv) TS (Time Series) 66
2. Second Approach: Detailed Structuring of Data 66
a. Predecessors 66
b. The COMPASS System (World Bank) 67
3. Third Approach: General Structuring of Data 69
a. The MADS Programme (OECD) 69
b. The MADS II Programme (FAO) 70
c. The DASI Programme (FAO) 73
d. The MADS III Programme 75
(i) General Characteristics 75
( ii l Organization of the Programme 75
(iii) Creation of a Data Base 76
(iv) Printing the Data Base 71'
(v) Calculation Module 77
(vi) Correction of Data Base 79
(vii) Example of Use 79
4. The Case of Livestock - the LIVMOD Programme 90
a. The Demographic Model 90
b. Economic Analysis 91
c. Example of Use 92
B. Problems Involved in Expanding the Use of Programmes 93
1. Compatibility and Transferability 93
2. Ease of Use - Training of Users 94
3. Use in Rome and in Various Countries 94

VI. CONCLUSIONS. ACTUAL USE OF TOOLS, BENEFITS, LIMITATIONS

AND FUTURE POSSIBILITIES 96
A. Benefits 96
1. Refining Techniques 96
2. Saving Time for the Project Analyst 96
3. Testing Technical Assumptions 97
4. Validating Data and Exploring Alternatives 97
B. Difficulties and Limitations 98
1. Risks of Error 98
2. Excessive Variety of Assumptions 99
3. Excessively Detailed Analysis 99
4. Psychological Aspects 99
 viii

C. Future Prospects 99
1. Increased Availability of Material 99
2. From Preparation to Execution 100
3. Before Preparation 101

ANNEXES

1. Specifications of Computer Systems Used

2. MANIP - User's Guide

3. Four Programmes for HP 41 CV Calculator

4. An Example of MANIP Utilization

5. MADS III - User's Guide

6. Example of Using LIVMOD Programme

7. Selected Bibliography
 I. INTRODUCTION

A. General Outline

In most developing countries, governments feel the need to improve

the situation through a number of specific actions. These usually start with
the formulation of a group of proposals, followed by the study of the means
necessary to implement them, and the evaluation of results expected. Once
such a programme has taken shape, it becomes what is usually known as a
"project": the p~oject in turn becomes an instrument for deciding on
investment for the government of the country and the external sources of
finance usually invited to participate to form an opinion on the merits of a
proposal, and therefore to decide, where appropriate, to go ahead.

The preparation of such project documents for economic and financial

evaluation requires that the project be represented by quantitative models
on which analysis will be made. Experience shows that the preparation of the
models presents many difficulties from the point of view of methodology,
data availability, and the burden of making the calculations. The use of
computing tools makes the work easier and improves its quality.

B. Working Background

The object of this report is to present the results of instrumental

research carried out by the author as part of his professional activities as
a project analyst at the Investment Centre of FAO (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations), Rome.

The FAO Investment Centre includes the FAO/World Bank Cooperative

Programme (in which the author is working) and the Investment Support
Programme, which cooperates with other financing organizations, particularly
IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) and the regional
development banks (African, Asian, Inter-American).

The Centre has about a hundred professional officers - economists,

ag~iculturists and various specialists (irrigation, credit, animal
husbandry, fisheries, forestry, etc.). The Centre's activities consist of
the fielding of missions and the preparation of reports to assist developing
countries desirous of implementing agricultural development projects, and,
with financial contributions from the organizations mentioned above, to
prepare documents which will serve as a basis for decisions on financing.

The operations concerned take the form of "projects" and the role of
the Investment Centre is to assist governments, first of all in the
identification of appropriate projects, and then in their detailed
preparation. In the context of this report, the word "project· refers to
investment projects (the word "investment" being taken in the widest sense)
and will not cover other types of projects such as study projects or
technical assistance projects, which are not usually the subject of the same
kind of quantitative analysis.
 2

A project takes the form of a report which describes a proposal for

well-defined agricultural development operations, usually to be carried out
over a period of four to five years, in order to meet certain objectives.
The project document provides details of activities envisaged, both from the
technical point of view and from the point of view of cost and organization
of activities, and also it gives an ·analysis of the viability (economic and
financial) of the project; this feasibility study will enable the government
and the financial institution concerned to form an opinion on the merits of
the proposal, and to decide upon its implementation.

A project is thus different from a plan, which establishes a general

structure of development lines for the whole country, and a programme, which
fixes the broad lines of action for a given sector, but without such precise
quantification as in the c~se of a project.

The Investment Centre undertakes a large variety of projects. They

can be on a regional or country scale. They can be either strictly sectoral
(irrigation, animal husbandry, forestry, specific crops), or aimed at the
development of a sector of activities or services (seed production,
extension, research, supply of inputs, credit), or designed to promote the
harmonious development of a region by tackling the main problems (integrated
rural development).

Despite this variety, the broad outlines of the methodology for

project preparation remain the same. One part of the work involves the
preparation of quantitative models and the making of a number of
calculations. These calculations are still frequently done entirely by hand.
The computing tools presented here - some of which have been developed. by
the author - have the double objective of offering the analyst an improved
methodological framework for his work, and freeing him from the burden of
calculations.

c. summary of Contents
Chapter II introduces the methodology for preparing agricultural
projects as practised in the FAO Investment Centre, with a presentation of
the different stages in the life of a project, and a more detailed
description of the work corresponding to the preparation stage. This is
followed by a discussion of the types of models used for analysis.

Chapter III explains the necessity for data processing tools. These
tools, perceived initially by the user as a simple instrument enabling him
to lighten the burden of certain material tasks (calculations, printing of
tables), has also proved to be a means of improving the quality of work. It
therefore has a methodological impact.

Chapter IV describes in detail the results of the instrumental

research done by the author, presenting the fundamental mechanisms for
calculation and the basic concepts to be used in the concrete implementation
of programmes, whether general or specialized (animal husbandry projects).
The chapter ends with an analysis of the advantages and limitations of the
approaches proposed, and suggests the functional specifications of an
integrated system of programmes, a system which does not yet exist.

Chapter V gives concrete information on the implementation of

programmes, using the different approaches.
 3

Chapter VI presents, in conclusion, examples of actual use of the

programmes, with illustrations, drawn from the author's experience of the
different benefits - particularly methodological ones - which have already
been obtained from their use, and the problems encountered. There is also a
discussion of how installation of these programmes in developing countries
opens up possibilities in regard to the preparation of agricultural
projects.

Finally, there are annexes consisting of documentation on some of

the programmes developed by the author and the equipment used, and also a
bibliography giving a short list of methodological reference works,
references to programmes developed by other authors (the World Bank in
particular), and the references for the studies or project reports presented
in the text as ex~mples.
4

II. METHODOLOGY FOR PREPARATION OF PROJECTS

A. Project Cycle

The project cycle is the series of stages through which a project

passes, from the initial idea to preparation, and then execution. It may be
considered that the project cycle is broken down into four major phases:
identification, preparation, appraisal and execution (ref. 15).

Identification is the phase from the first idea for the project to a
general proposal for financing. The project idea could have different
origins: it could be in the national development plan, it could be proposed
by a government service, it could arise from overall economic studies or
reviews of the agricultural sector made by international organizations such
as the World Bank or FAO.

For the initial idea to be transformed into a project (at the

identification stage) it should be in line with the priorities of the
government which should give some indication of its a priori support for
the suggestion - and it should have a sufficiently sound technological
basis, for example availability of water and the existence of a recognized
site where an irrigation project could be envisaged.

The identification process consists either in preparing proposals,

or in analysing specific proposals already submitted, and recognizing that
these proposals seem at first sight to be valid, and seem to be the best way
of achieving the project objectives. The selection between different
possible solutions is generally made at the identification stage, and the
concept of the project will not usually be seriously questioned at later
stages of the project cycle.

Proposals will be considered mainly under three essential aspects,

which are technical feasibility, economic feasibility (including the
existence of markets for the products) and the organization of project
implementation.

At this stage, the scope and location of the project will also be
defined: delimitation of the relevant geographical zone, reasons behind the
choices which will decide the relative importance of the different elements
of the project.

The identification phase of a project is certainly the most decisive

as regards the soundness of the proposals; it is also the most difficult to
grasp or codify in a series of guidelines.

Calculations made at this stage for the analysis of the project are
usually limited, and in fact the computing tools described in the present
work were developed for meeting the needs of the following stage.

Preparation of the project is intended to develop, complete and

confirm the proposals made at the identification stage. A second objective
would be to make some progress in solving the problems which became apparent
at the time of identification.
 5

The project proposal should be sufficiently detailed to permit

confirmation of the viability of the project on the technical, economic and
financial, and organizational levels. At this stage, the results of studies
requested in the identification phase will be available in order to provide
all the necessary details.

The result of the preparatory pnase is the feasibility study

(preparation report), on the basis of which the project will be evaluated by
the government and the relevant financing organization.

References to different guidelines prepared by the FAO Investment

Centre on project preparation (refs. 9 to 14) and the basic, necessary data
(ref. 16) will be found in Annex 7.

The following sections of this chapter discuss in greater detail the

process of preparation, and describe the methods used for economic and
financial analysis.

Project appraisal, usually made by a team from the organization

financing the project, will be a systematic checking of the preparation,
leading to the formulation of an independent judgement on the advisability
of financing the project.

It is unusual at this stage to encounter problems with regard to

basic technical parameters or standards. The aspects studied at this stage
are mainly concerned with the proposed organization and administration of
the project, and its financing arrangements. Finally, a number of decisions
with political implications (prices, subsidies and taxes, responsibilitjes,
recovery of project costs, etc.) will seldom be taken before this stage.

The appraisal report will serve as the basis for negotiation and
conclusion of a loan agreement between the financing organization and the
government.

The execution of the project will come later, as the government

responsibility, in the framework of the administrative organization defined
in the preceding stages. The financing body will control the use of funds
and the proper application of the credit agreement, usually by the
periodical fielding of supervision missions. The monitoring of the project
once it is under way, which ideally should be done by a team independent
from that responsible for execution, will provide an opportunity to measure
its effects and possibly to identify new problems, and will provide the data
necessary for the preparation of a termination report. An ex-post evaluation
should in principle always be made, but this will only be possible if
sufficient information is available on the situation as it existed before
the project (or at least at the time when it started).

B. The Preparation Stage: Procedures and Problems

As explained above, the preparation stage is the one intended to

demonstrate the feasibility of the project in the three complementary
fields: technical, economic/financial, and institutional.

The most difficult problems arising in the preparation stage are

those relating to the level of technical detail required, or acceptable, for
such a feasibility study. Whereas, for example, engineering studies for a
main road will have to be made according to precise and well-defined
standards, the standards for the level of information necessary for the
preparation of components of agricultural projects are much more flexible
6

and depend on many factors. For example, the level of study acceptable for a
rural road will depend on the competence and experience of the services
responsible for the construction of this type of road, on the importance of
this component in the whole project, on the more or less difficult nature of
the terrain, etc.

In the purely agricultural field, estimates concerning crop yields,

possible increases, and consumption of inputs will be made on the basis of
research on the spot and results already obtained by progressive farmers in
the area. Lastly, it will be necessary to make a value judgement, a possible
source of uncertainty or argument.

Similarly, in the economic and financial field, problems can arise

in regard to information concerning, for example, the structure of' farms,
the importance of non-agricultural income, prices, markets. Here again, the
level of precision required will not be the same, depending on the
homogeneity of the project area, the type of development proposed (for
example, irrigation or more extensive rainfed crops), and the "weight" of
such and such a component in the whole project.

Lastly, in the organizational field, a number of choices depending

on political contingencies or value judgements will, in many cases, have a
direct bearing on, for example, certain estimates of staffing requirements
for the project, or administrative infrastructures, or means of transport.

All the above considerations are intended to explain that - at the

level of detailed quantification in the preparatory stage - many elements of
a project are defined by value judgements which are always liable to be
contested. The work will progress by a series of iterations between· the
three fields of analysis, particularly between the technical and the
economic/financial. This point is very important and will be taken up again
in Chapter III, where it will be explained how the use of computing tools
can improve this process.

The need for these iterations will be all the greater where the data
basis is weaker, but they will always be necessary. An agricultural project
in a developing country cannot be studied like, for example, an industrial
project in Europe, where the different parts of the study (technical,
financial, economic) will often be carried out successively in time,
possibly by different teams.

c. Basic Tools of Analysis

1. Choice of a General Method
Without taking the organizational aspects of the project into
consideration for the purposes of the present work, let us see how economic
and financial aspects in particular are analysed.

Financial analysis concerns individually the agents involved in the

project; for example, agricultural producers, an official organization for
the management of an irrigated area, the Government. Analysis of the effects
of the project on these agents is made in "financial" terms, that is to say,
at real market prices (present prices or, where appropriate, projection of
prices in the future).

Economic analysis of the project, on the other hand, is made from

the point of view of the nation as a whole. The standard method used by
international financing organizations like the World Bank is that of shadow
 7

prices (see Little and Mirrlees, ref. 1, Squire and Van der Tak, ref. 5, and
Price Gittinger, ref. 3, and also the other reference works indicated in
Annex 7 l .

The difference between financial analysis and economic analysis lies

in the nature of the variables taken into account and the type of prices
used, financial prices being replaced by "economic" prices (taxes and
subsidies, which from the viewpoint of the country as a whole are only
transfers, will be eliminated from the prices, and the price of imported or
exported products will be calculated in relation to world market prices,
used as a reference value).

Apart from prices used, the financial analysis will usually cover a
producer, that is to say a farm, and economic analysis will cover the whole
project.

Criteria used for the economic analysis are the present value of the
project and its rate of return (RORI. The criterion of economic return is
one of the fundamental criteria for decision on a project. Financial
aspects, on the other hand, can always be corrected - at least in theory
by price controls or subsidies. The purpose of the financial analysis is to
show that the project - justified from the point of view of the community by
the economic analysis is sufficiently attractive to the potential
participants to ensure their support of the proposed programme. The
evaluation criteria will be not so much the rate of return, but the overall
increase in income and higher rewards for work. In the case of credit, the
analysis should also make it possible to check the ability of borrowers to
repay their debts.

The analysis will look at the future situation of a participant in

the project, compared with his present situation. In the case of economic
analysis, changes made to the production system will be evaluated in
comparison with what would have happened without the project: thus two
projections are compared, with and without the project.

Research under way in the World Bank on the possibilities of

improving the analysis and including in it social factors (distribution of
income among social classes or use for consumption or investment, for
example ref. 21) is based on the use of reference prices intended to
reflect the value of these factors. The method has not yet become current
practice. It would not be incompatible with the tools presented in Chapters
rv and V, since prices are exogenous data, provided by the user.
Moreover, the effects method (Prou and Chervel, ref. B; see also
refs. 2 and 22), which would require different tools, is not used in current
practice for the preparation and appraisal of agricultural projects on which
the Investment Centre is working. This method defines the benefits of the
project in terms of internal value added, generated by the project itself
and by the internal production of factors of production used by the project.
Although the effects method is popular in many French-speaking African
countries, it has received little attention from international financing
organizations. The author has not had the opportunity to study the use of
data processing tools intended to implement this method, which is therefore
excluded from the present work.
8

2. Tvoes of Models Used

a. General Characteristics
An agricultural development project aims at expanding production,
whether by the addition of new production units identical with those already
existing (for example, cultivation of new areas), or by improvement of
productivity through the use of a new combination of factors of production
(for example, use of improved seeds, or larger quantities of fertilizer),
or, more generally, by a combination of these two mechanisms.

Primary project activities - the project investments will be

undertaken during an initial development period. These activities will later
have their effects during the so-called operational period. These two
periods together will form the total period of analysis, also called
"project life". This duration is in practice fixed at twenty years for most
projects, except for those taking a particularly long time to bear fruit
(large-scale irrigation infrastructures or forest plantations, for example),
in which case the period may vary from 30 to 50 years.

Project analysis consists in comparing the expenses and receipts -

corresponding to the different activities of the project occurring in
different periods or varying in time. The project will therefore be
represented by a number of time series of values corresponding to the
different components of the project (see Brown, ref. 4, and Price Gittinger,
ref. 3 l.

Depending on the nature of the project, this representation will be

at three levels:

- The level of elementary production activities, that is to say,

usually crops (but also, for example, livestock). The crop budget
will contain all quantitative information on the combination of
factors of production (work, seed, fertilizer, irrigation water,
etc.) leading to a certain production (yield). The changes in values
in successive years will be the representation of the changes in
cropping practices and productivity under the effect of project
activities.

- The level of the producer, that is tu say, uf the farm. The farm
budget will represent all the crops and other production activities,
in the light of the development of the area under each crop (or the
numbers of animals in the case of livestock-raising). It will also
I

present the investments foreseen at farm level, and generally all

expenses or receipts which have not already been taken into account
in the crop budgets. The farm budget will be the tool used for
financial analysis of the project from the point of the view of the
producer.

- The level of the project, that is to say, the budget of all the
costs and benefits of the project, for overall analysis. One part of
the costs/benefits is derived from directly productive components of
the project (farm models), and the other concerns all the other
components, such as, for example, infrastructure, administrative
services of the project, etc.
 9

In the construction of these models of the different project

elements, several techniques may in principle be used. In particular, a
choice must be made between simulation and optimization models and between
determinist models and the use of stochastic variables. Finally, in the
presentation of time series, the question of the time scale to be used
arises. These different points, and also the corresponding choices adopted
in practice for most projects, are discussed in detail below.

b. Simulation or Optimization
Apart from the fact that the material burden of calculation excludes
in practice the use of optimization models (linear programming type) when
the calculations are done manually, the use of such models may perhaps be
justified sometimes. The most typical example is that of the use of a linear
programming model to calculate the cropping pattern for a farm (or region)
in the light of constraints on availability of factors of production, or
markets for the products. In practice the following problems arise:

- The model is classically static, whereas the reality to be

represented is constantly changing; but it is always possible to use
the model for one situation corresponding to a given stage of the
project.

- The model usually requires more data than a simulation model of the
farm budget type; the analyst can seldom resist the temptation to
refine it by multiplying possible activities and constraints.

- The model is difficult for non-specialists to understand,

particularly for those officers involved in making a decision on
financing who have not been initiated into this technique.

- The value judgements governing the fixation of certain parameters of

a farm model - in the context of agriculture in developing countries
- are often difficult to quantify in the forms required by the
optimization model.

- The model is often excessively sensitive; slight changes in the data

will make the solution vary considerably; and data is not usually
very precise.

Because of all these problems, experience has shown that in most

cases the cropping pattern proposed by experienced agriculturists would not
differ significantly from that obtained by such a model. The use of
optimization models can sometimes be justified at the time of studies
preceding the final phase of preparation of certain projects (for example,
in the case of irrigation projects, with limited availability of water, in
very diversified agricultural areas), but in the author's experience such
models are mainly useful for supporting certain technical judgements which
will later be integrated in the simulation models. In the context of the
projects discussed here, the optimization model should in such cases be
considered as a tool of analysis of sensitivity of a complex model rather
than a model for calculating an optimum.
10

c. Determinist or stocbastic Hodel~

current practice consists in attributing to the input data of the
models values determined "from outside", that is to say, fixed. This is the
case, for example with yield and input consumption forecasts for crops. But
it is obvious that such data represent only averages and that the real
figures will depend on many factors not represented in the budgetary
simulation model; in particular, yields could depend heavily on climatic
conditions.

It could, therefore, be tempting to incorporate this variability

into the models, for example, by generating stochastic series of yields
based on past series of observations of yields in the light of climatic
data. But because of a number of problems, this kind of analysis is hardly
aver used in practice:

- There are seldom enough observations available to establish a

statistical correlation between the yield of a crop in a project
area and the main climatic factors.

- Still more unusual would be the availability of data to establish

the independence of (or the link between) the different variables
for which it is desired to generate a series of data. In the absence
of such information, it is not possible to construct a modal in
which there would be more than one stochastic variable, and there
are hardly any projects which would fit into such a limited
framework.

- The burden of calculation (the model would have to be calculated

repeatedly to allow for a proper study of the distribution of
results) makes it very clear that this kind of analysis is
impossible without an appropriate data processing tool.

The following example, taken from the author's own experience, is a

good illustration of the problem. A project was proposed to develop the
floodlands in the lake area of Mali (ref. 45). The lowlands are flooded each
year by the River Niger and cultivated with sorghum when the floods recede.
The flooding and withdrawal of the water are traditionally controlled by
earthern dikes built and opened each year by hand. The project consisted in
improving control of floodwaters by constructing permanent dikes with a
control structure (gate with stop-logs), and by digging canals to allow the
sheet of water to spread over the lowlands. The flooded area varies
according to the levels reached by the river. Flood statistics over 50 years
and precise topographical maps have made it possible to establish the
contours of the area flooded (and therefore cultivable) according to the
level of the flood, and therefore a distribution of the probability of
cultivable area. All data was therefore available to introduce this variable
in the form of a stochastic variable. But the sorghum yield also varies
considerably in different years, and even if the distribution of the yields
was (approximately) known, there was no series of observations of yields to
facilitate the study of the correlation (or absence of correlation) between
the yield and the flood level. It was therefore impossible to introduce the
two variables, area and yield, in the form of stochastic variables. A
sensitivity analysis allowing - with a simple determinist model - for the
testing of different combinations of values of area and yield led quite
easily to the formation of an opinion on the validity of the proposition.
 11

In conclusion, it may be said that a determinist simulation model,

which enables an evaluation to be made quite simply of the effects on the
results of the model of changes in the hypotheses regarding the data,
usually provides sufficient information for the end in view, that is to say,
the making of a decision on a development programme. There is a danger that
the use of stochastic variables, in the absence of sufficiently reliable
data on the conditions of variation of these variables, will provide only an
illusion of accuracy, and no better information than that which could have
been obtained from a properly conducted sensitivity analysis with a purely
determinist model.

d. The Time Factor

In advanced agricultural societies, such as in Europe, the

development of a farm often takes the form of a qualitative leap from one
kind of production to another, corresponding, for example, to the
realization of an investment. The operation can be accurately described by
indicating the present situation, before investment, and the future
situation. Each of the two situations will often be considered as static. It
will be represented by a data series on an annual basis, with a more
detailed analysis of the spread of costs and benefits over the year, if
appropriate.

An agricultural project in a developing country, on the other hand,

is usually accompanied by a more or less slow advance in the technological
level of the farmers concerned in the course of several years. Tha overall
programme, moreover, will not affect all the beneficiaries in the first
year. On the contrary, their "entry" into the project will be staggered over
a period of several years. Such a development plan obviously cannot be
represented by two static situations (before and after), but will require
the quantification of all intermediate stages. The different parameters of
the project (for example, areas and yields of a crop) will therefore be
represented by a time series of data, projected over several years. The time
scale will be fundamentally the year, but it will sometimes be necessary to
make a more detailed analysis of certain factors within the year, such as,
for example, the use and availability of labour or irrigation water. In this
case, the analysis will not necessarily have to be made for all intermediate
years; the year will in any event remain the fundamental time scale.

Another essential aspect of the definition of models is the

distinction between the "before project" situation and the "without project"
situation. A project is very often situated in a non-stabilized context,
that is to say that the agricultural situation of the area concerned is in a
state of evolution, and that this evolution would be pursued at a certain
rafe in the absence of the proposed project. The object of project analysis
is not to evaluate a production system in its entirety, but to evaluate the
effects of a modification in this production system. The analysis therefore
covers additional costs and benefits of the project compared with the
situation without project. When the situation without project is not
constant, it is therefore necessary to represent the parameters of the
project by two time series of data, one corresponding to the projection
without project and the other to the projection with project. When the
situation without project can reasonably be considered constant, it can be
represented by one value alone. Therefore the standard method is to take
year zero of a time series to represent the without project situation, and
the other values (year 1 and following years), to correspond to the
projected situation with project.
 12

3. Problems Encountered in the Construction of Hodels

a. aualitv of Data
The fundamental problem in the construction of models is obviously
the availability of sufficiently detailed and reliable data. In the context
of developing economies, which do not usually have elaborate statistical
systems, the problem will be particularly acute. There will rarely be
statistical surveys conducted according to the rules, or sufficiently
trustworthy results of research to be extrapolated with any precision
outside of experimental stations. As already mentioned above, much of the
data will finally be "estimates", that is to say, the result of a value
judgement by the technicians responsible for the study.

It is of course always possible to improve the availability of

information by making a number of surveys and studies for the preparation of
the project. But here again, value judgements will have to be made to decide
upon a reasonable compromise between the cost (in time as well as in
financial resources) of such studies and the benefits that may be expected
from them.

b. Physical Burden of Calculations

Even with very simplified models, the quantity of data to be handled

grows very quickly with the number of crops, the level of detail needed for
each crop (number of categories of costs), the number of categories of
investments, and the number of farm models needed to represent the project.

Take, for example, a simple project in which there are only five
crops. On the assumption that the process of development takes five years at
the level of one parcel, that all parcels will come into the project in four
years (which is very short, since this combines progress in the cropping
plan at the level of one farmer with the gradual entry of farmers into the
project), and that the situation without project should be considered as
constant, and therefore represented by the year zero, the tables - on an
annual base - will have ten columns.

If each crop is represented by only five parameters (area, yield,

labour, seeds, inputs), there will be 25 data lines for the model, plus a
certain number of lines for investments, results of crops (production and
inputs, in quantity and value), plus the lines used for other calculations
such as credit operations, or the value of the working day. Even a very
simplified model will therefore seldom include less than about fifty data
lines and results, and a project represented by five farm models, and with a
number of investment components and operational costs, will very rapidly be
reflected in several hundred data lines, and therefore several thousand
values to be added and multiplied.

If the situation without project is not constant, the amount of data

is multiplied by two, and the number of results by three (with project,
without project, difference).

In practice, many projects will be the sum of several components;

there will, for example, be several ecologically different sub-zones, or
else one zone with rainfed crops and another with irrigated crops, the
combination of animal husbandry with crop-growing, a programme for rural
roads and water supply, etc.
 13

The quantity of data therefore grows very quickly, even if one keeps
each component at a low (even simplified) level of analysis.

c. Heterogeneity of Models

Even if the lack of standardization found in practice in the

presentation of models is not in itself to be condemned on the
methodological level - it is, on the contrary, altogether desirable that the
project analyst should have the freedom to express his judgement and adapt
his models to each particular case - the heterogeneity which results from
this presents certain practical disadvantages:

- It will be more difficult to use the study; it will take more time
to find whatever specific information is being sought in the report;
it will be more difficult to follow the analyst's methods.

- It will be more difficult to control the quality of the study or to

check the validity of results obtained.

- It will sometimes be difficult to compare the results of analyses

presented differently from one project to another; the data and the
results will have been aggregated in different ways, the synthetic
indicators will not be the same, and therefore impossible to compare
directly.

Certain underlying assumptions are often implicit, since they appear

obvious to the author of the report, because of his background
knowledge of the case; a reader without the same familiarity with
the subject will sometimes have difficulty in reconciling the
results with the data provided.
14

III. WHY COMPUTING TOOLS ARE NEEDED

A. Methodological Interest

The use of a computing programme to construct project analysis

models can have an impact on the methodology used, even if the programme is
apparently "neutral" and very flexible. The tool will be a means of
standardizing a certain methodology, of developing calculating techniques
even correcting errors - of increasing the number of variables taken into
account, and of making better use of the models and sometimes validating
data, thanks to the consistency of the models.

1. Standardizing the Methodology

The programmes described in the following chapters all follow -

despite the diversity of the approaches used an identical basic
methodology: determinist models of budgetary simulation, based on an annual
time series of data. The use of these programmes therefore presupposes the
adoption of this fundamental choice.

The availability in the programme of predefined functions to carry

out this or that type of analysis will be a strong incentive to a certain
standardization. A typical example is that of methods employed for
sensitivity analysis of models: systematic use of the technique . of
"switching values" described in the following section, has become current
practice in the FAO Investment Centre and the European Investment Bank, for
example, due to the use of programmes making these analyses in a simple way
coupled with other operations that analysts were accustomed to using (rate
of return l.

Standardization can also cover the way in which the data is

organized in the models and the results presented, which will in turn
facilitate their use by people other than their author. The reader familiar
with this presentation will know exactly where to find any piece of key
information and will understand exactly the type of analysis that has been
made.

For the project analyst, a certain standardization makes it easier

to organize the data collection. This aspect will be more or less marked
depending on the more or less open character of the model (see Chapter IV,
the different approaches used for construction of the programmes).

Conversely, the absence of specific mechanisms in a programme to

treat certain aspects of the analysis could reflect either the lack of
priority accorded to these aspects, or the absence of decision on the method
to be used. A typical example is ~hat of taking inflation into account in
the analysis of cashflow projections in a farm model. The models are - in
the context of the work under discussion - prepared on the basis of prices
in constant money, that is to say, only relative changes in price are taken
into account. But it is obvious that, when there is a loan at a rate not
indexed to inflation, the borrower takes this inflation into account when
making his decision, since it lessens the burden of rep~yment in real terms.
Experience shows that - dependiny o~ the project, the rate of inflation, the
credit policy - the methods used to analyse this aspect of the problem can
be very different, ranging from taking absolutely no account of the
 15

phenomenon, to the calculation of complete projections in current prices,

not to mention deflation of the debt service (the other variables being in
constant money) or the use of a "reference" interest rate. Each method has
certain disadvantages: the projection in current prices is difficult to
interpret, since the effects of inflation mask the effects of the project,
and where inflation rates are high and fluctuating, projections are, to say
the least, hypothetical. The deflation of the debt service, which also means
projecting the inflation rate over the period of repayment, has the
disadvantage of not presenting the values in the same monetary terms as the
rest of the models (all the variables of the model are in constant money,
except debt service, which is corrected by a deflation factor). The use of a
reference interest rate - which, depending on the circumstances, will be the
difference between the nominal rate and the inflation rate, or else an
"economic" rate reflecting what should be the real cost of the loan in the
eyes of the analyst - is, from this point of view, still more remote from
the financial reality of the model.

None of the programmes presented in this work include specific

functions for dealing with the above problem due to uncertainty on the
methodology to be used. In the same way, any organization which prefers one
method to all others could make it easier to use by incorporating specific
arrangements in the calculation programmes.

2. Improving Technigues

The use of a computing tool will serve as a vehicle for the

introduction of new techniques of analysis; it will even, in some cases,
replace mistaken practices by a correct method of calculation. Each of these
points is illustrated below by an example drawn from experience: the
introduction of "switching values" as a special tool of analysis and the
calculations of aggregation ("phasing").

Switching valu,e,s: From the point of view of profitability analysis,

a project becomes a series of data lines representing the values - year by
year - of project components, that is to say, the different elements with a
cost or producing a benefit. The algebraic sum of these lines represents the
net value of the project. The project will be characterized by the present
value of this balance for a given discount rate, and by its rate of return.

The standard technique for sensitivity analysis consists in varying

some of the project components by a specific percentage (10%, 20%), and
calculating the new values of the present value and the rate of return.

Example: ( for a given discount rate I

present value - 150,000 ROR: 14.5%
Investments+ 1ot. value production - 10%:
present value 120,000 - ROR: 12.21.

This method, formerly very frequently used, is being increasingly

abandoned in favour of that of switching values. The switching value of a
variable is the percentage rate by which all the values of this variable
must be varied - the other variables remaining constant - to cancel the net
present value of the pioject, or - which is the same thing - to bring the
ROR to the value of the discount rate.

A farm model, for example, is summed up by the following six

variables: value of production (gross), other income, investment, production
costs, family labour cost, and increase in production value in the absence
of the project because of variations in prices (variations already taken
16

into account also in the with project situation). For a financial analysis,
the family labour cost appears as receipts, since the total labour cost has
been counted in the production costs at the price of a wage-earning labour
force. Without project costs and productions are represented by the values
of the year zero of the variables. The balance for year zero, projected over
the analysis period, is called "without project balance·. The result of the
calculation of profitability will be presented as follows:

Rate of return: 307.

(discount rate: 12t.)

Present values Switching values

Production value 41,076 -15. 1

Other income 5, 191 - 119. 2
Production costs -22,078 28.0
Investments -8,602 71. 9
Family labour cost 2, 173 -284.8
Without project increase
in production value -3,732 165.8
Without project balance - 7,841 78.9

Net balance 6, 187

Switching values make it possible to appreciate - in one table alone

- the relative sensitivity of each of the project variables. In the above
example, it is clear that the model is very sensitive to changes in
production value (yield multiplied by price), and also sensitive - but to a
lesser extent to production costs, and far less sensitive to the other
parameters. This type of analysis therefore makes it possible to identify
very easily the important variables of a model, and to check whether the
precision of the data is compatible with the degree of sensitivity of the
variable.

It is of course perfectly possible to make such an analysis without

using a computer (the calculation being limited to rules of three on present
values). But experience has shown that habits change slowly and, as already
mentioned above, the systematic use of this technique has developed within
many organizations through the use of a calculating programme. The programme
thus becomes a training instrument for diffusion of a new technique.

Aggregation calculations: It is quite usual to have to make

calculations of the following type:

The yield of a crop is 1 t/ha. Under a project, it increases in four

years to 3 t (for example, 1.5 t/ha the first year, 2 t the second, 2.5 t
the third). If the project develops 100 ha in year 1 and 200 more in year 2,
production will be equal to:

XJtlu:

!!. 1 £ 1 i
Yield 1 1. 5 2 2.5 3
100 ha in year 100 150 200 250 300 300 -->
200 ha in year 2 200 200 300 400 500 600 -->

Total 300 350 500 650 800 900 -->

 17

The series of yields should be lagged by one year, to be multiplied

by the number of hectares in year 2 (hence the term "phasing" or "building-
up" for this type of calculation). The supplementary value of the production
is obtained by subtracting the value of year zero from the values of each
year of the time series. This type of calculation is described in more
detail in the following chapter, section C. It may be seen there that, when
the without project situation is not constant, the calculation must be made
in a different way, depending on whether the result is required in total
values or in incremental values (compared with the without project
situation): it would be a mistake to pass from one result to the other,
subtracting the value of year zero. Experience shows that this type of
mistake easily slips into calculations, and that the introduction of a
computer programme has made it possible both to draw attention to the
problem - of whic~ more than one analyst was not fully aware and to
correct the error, by providing a practical means of making the calculation
correctly.

3. Increasing the Number of Variables taken into Account

By offering the project analyst an organized framework for
calculation, by freeing him from the burden of calculations and related
problems of table editing, the computing tool makes it possible to develop
more detailed and more complete models. For example, more crops can be taken
into account (in a project with vegetable gardening, instead of simplifying
by representing only three or four typical productions, perhaps twice as
much will be represented, which might well correspond to a more realistic
representation of the problems), the different inputs necessary for
production can be more clearly shown, an overall analysis can be made .of,
for example, needs and supplies (seeds, fertilizers, for example), and an
analysis of availability of labour or irrigation water, etc., can be made
more precisely (over shorter periods of time).

The most typical case is that of a better understanding of the

without project situation. As mentioned above, economic analysis covers
additional benefits corresponding to additional costs, and therefore the
difference between the two projected situations: the project, and the
without project situation. The without project situation is frequently
considered as being constant and identical with the before project
situation, represented by year zero on the time scale. This could be
perfectly justified in some cases, but experience shows that it is not
always so. It is undeniable that, if the situation is fully taken into
account, twice as many calculations will have to be done (two projections
instead of one). Inadequacy of data can sometimes justify as an
approximation - the hypothesis that the situation without project is
constant. But clearly one is often forced to make a value judgement, which
is certainly influenced by the material implications of the volume of work,
even if this is sometimes unconscious. The calculating tool has two
advantages: it frees the analyst from the burden of calculations and to
the extent to which the programme has been conceived in this way - it
obliges him to explain. his assumptions, in particular those concerning the
without project situation. A particularly striking example is that of
livestock projects analysed on the basis of a demographic model of the herd
(see IV.Fl. The herd is defined by its composition and by a number of
parameters (natality, mortality, sales, purchases). The project will lead to
changes in these parameters (for example, a vaccination programme will lower
the mortality rate), which in turn will lead to changes in the structure of
the herd and its productions. It is quite common to limit the analysis to
such a projection, whereas the calculation shows that very often, even if
the herd parameters are constant, the demographic structure is such that the
18

herd is constantly changing, it is not stabilized (this is usually the case,

for example, with the Sahelian herds). The right computing tool can easily
make the two projections, which will sometimes give unexpected results,
since the calculation is sufficiently complex for it to be difficult to
foresee the results in the light of the data. Another example is that of the
forestry project described below (point 5), in which the data processing
tool takes into account not only the forests managed by the project, but
also the evolution of natural forests, which would certainly not have been
possible without such a tool.

This impact of the use of a computing tool on the level of detail of

the analysis will also be reflected and this could in some cases
considerably improve the quality of the work - in a better understanding of
the problems in the stage of project identification. It was mentioned above
(II.A) that calculations made at this stage are usually very limited, and
that the broad conceptual outlines of the project decided at this stage will
seldom be questioned later. It is clear that, when data is not yet
available, or when certain choices of economic policy have not been made or
some development options have not been taken, the analyst hesitates to
embark on the construction of detailed models of a more or less hypothetical
nature: he is discouraged by the disproportion between the work required and
the results expected. Here again, if the work required is considerably
lightened by the use of the computer, he will be able more easily to build
analysis models which will help him from this stage onwards to identify
certain problems such as, in particular, the probable sensitivity of the
results to such and such a little-known parameter, such as yield, price, or
outlets for a certain product, or else the non-availability of such and such
an important datum. This will be reflected in better orientation of work ·to
be done between identification and preparation.

In the same way, certain fundamental options are taken in a more or

less explicit way, without alternative solutions having really been
envisaged. One might, for example, embark on the study of an irrigation
scheme, based on substantial investment leading to complete control of the
water without having really asked the question of whether a smaller
investment, leading to partial control of the water and a less ambitious
cropping programme, would not be more interesting in the end. Here again,
the possibility of building models easily even based on partly
hypothetical data - will in some cases be the favourable element that will
make all the difference, and will lead to a deeper analysis of the proposal.

4. Making Better Use of the Models

One of the major advantages of mechanized calculation of models is

that their sensitivity to changes in hypothesis can be more fully explored;
that is to say, it becomes easier to reply to questions such as: What will
be the result if I change the level of this yield, if the outlet for this
very profitable crop is limited to so many tons, if the prices of such and
such a product do not increase as expected?

It is clear that, as soon as a project becomes a little bit

complicated, the material constraint of making calculations means that this
type of analysis is very limited.

The following example is drawn from the author's own experience

during the preparation of an agricultural credit project in Paraguay (ref.
48). It was anticipated that the major demand would come from the area of
the country where soybeans were grown, to finance the destumping of land
already cleared and the purchase of tractors, harvesters, and other
 19

equipment. The project was analysed through nine farm models, illustrating
different investments.

Since credit was granted on the basis of farm development plans

prepared by agronomists from the Agricultural Bank, it had been supposed
that the project would lead to not only an increase in the area under
cultivation, but also a certain increase in productivity. During the routine
discussion of the report before its publication, the Review Committee
considered that this hypothesis of increasing productivity could be
questioned, and that the models presented did not show clearly the
respective impact of the increase in area and of the increase in
productivity, on the project results. Answering the question, "What would
the project results be in the absence of any improvement in productivity?"
meant complete re~alculation of the project, that is to say nine models, and
their aggregation at project level over a period of three years. If the
project had been prepared manually, the question would probably have
remained unanswered. Since the data and the definition of models were stored
in a computer system, it took only - once the agronomist had prepared the
new data half an hour to modify the yield and production cost data, to
recalculate all the models and the whole project, and to obtain new results
which were presented in the report as an additional element of sensitivity
analysis.

5. Validating the Data

By their very nature, the simulation· models present a certain

internal consistency which means that one cannot use just any data. If a
crop budget or a farm model shows negative results, while in the field. it
can be seen that the relevant activities are making good progress, it is
either because the model is not representative or because the data is
incorrect. Conversely, if the results correspond to what one knows of
reality, this is an indication that the assumptions are probably correct.

The part played by the consistency of models in the validation of

data will be more or less important depending on the nature of the models
and the projects. The two examples below - one concerning livestock-raising
and the other a forestry project - illustrate cases where this role is
particularly marked.

In the case of animal husbandry projects, the mechanics of

calculating the demographic models of herds means that the different data to
be observed (structure of herd by class of age, rate of fertility,
mortality, sales) are directly interlinked. If, for example, there is survey
data on herd structure and fertility rates and statistics on demographic
growth in the past, the model will allow for adjustment, within the limit of
precision of available information, of the different parameters of rates of
sale, to obtain a herd growth rate compatible with the available statistical
data. on the other hand, if this leads to the use of rates of sale which,
after checking with the livestock-raisers, prove to be unrealistic, this
will mean that other data is invalid (fertility or demographic growth
statistics).

In other cases, as in the example of the forestry project described

below, the consistency of the model has been justified by the results of the
sensitivity analysis. It represented a forestry project in the mountains of
Nepal (ref. 47) intended to promote among village communities the
establishment of new plantations and the regeneration, and later rational
management, of remaining natural forests, on the following assumptions:
20

- The natural forest was divided into two parts, the distant forest
and the near forest. For each part, estimates were made of area,
standing volumes, growth rates, and average distance from the
village (and therefore, time spent collecting wood).

- The projected demand for firewood (in the light of population

projections) was supposed to be covered, in order of priority, by
the forests developed by the project, by the nearby natural forests,
and finally by the distant natural forests.

The model, in the particular case of this project, was not treated
with any of the computing tools presented below (they did not yet exist) but
needed the preparation of a specific programme. The data used came from a
superficial survey in a hundred villages, by the staff of the Nepal forest
service, and was analysed by the team preparing the project.

The model showed that, without the project, all the forests would
disappear in twenty years, which accorded with other estimates made on the
basis of the historic evolution of the area. Also, this model proved to be
remarkably insensitive to changes in assumptions concerning some of the
parameters on which the information was not very reliable, such as, for
example, growth rates or average distance from forest to village. The
conclusion was that the data was certainly trustworthy to some extent, and
that the conclusions of the model were valid despite the lack of precision
in some of the data.

It would have been difficult for the analysis to take into account
the impact of the project on the utilization of the natural forest without
the use of a computer, again because of the burden of calculation
(projections over 50 years, in view of the slow growth of the species
concerned). The model showed that, in the long term, one of the major
effects of the project would be to safeguard the distant forest (the nearby
forest would disappear anyway, even quicker than without the project,
because of the protection - initially - of the part to be transformed into a
forest managed under the project) which would otherwise have disappeared,
and would in time, thanks to the increase in standing volumes resulting from
more moderate exploitation, lead to considerably increased production from
this natural forest, which was not directly included in the project.

To sum up a "conventional" analysis, based only on a cost/benefit

analysis of the areas managed by the project, would have shown very
different results, perhaps even inadequate to justify the project.

6. limitations

The computing tool is only an aid to the normal work of analysis. It

allows the methodology to be improved, but only to the extent that the basis
for an improved methodology already exists. It makes the use of a greater
number of variables and the carrying out of a greater mass of calculations
possible; it does not replace the analyst's normal know-how. The tool is and
must remain only a tool.
 21

The last chapter (Chapter VI, Section Bl outlines the difficulties

and limitations which the practice has shown up, difficulties linked to the
particular character of any computing tool (the need for checking the data
properly or the risk of producing results which will have all the
appearances of the necessary validity, but will be incorrect because the
data will not have the required qualitites, etc.).

A fundamental aspect whose importance can never be over-emphasized

is the following: when the analysis methodology is not clearly established
and the choice in the matter is left to the judgement of the analyst, the
data processing tool should have the role of facilitating these choices, and
explaining them, and not of taking decisions in a way that is hidden to the
user. Again, the tool must remain only a tool.

B. Immediate Material Advantages

The computing tool - and we have just seen to what extent it could
have an impact on analysis methodology and on the quality of the work of
preparation - is often perceived by the user, and justified when a decision
is being made to purchase equipment, from the point of view of the immediate
material advantages alone. These include the time saved for the project
analyst, who finds himself. relieved of the material task of making a large
number of calculations, and the saving of difficult and therefore expensive
work in the typing of tables of figures. These advantages should not,
however, be underestimated because of their trivial nature. The fact that
they are often the only ones taken into account illustrates their
importance.

Another advantage - more potential than real in the present state of

development of computer systems - is the possibility of transferring data
and models of preparation en bloc to the team responsible for appraising the
project. This would save them having to do the work all over again; they
could just make the necessary adjustments or corrections in the light of the
results of the appraisal.
22

IV. DEVELOPMENT OF THE INSTRUMENTS; IDENTIFICATION OF FUNDAMENTAL

HECHANISHS AND CONCEPTION OF PROGRAMMES

A. Introduction - Charact~ristics of the Ideal Tool - Summary of this

Chapter

The computing tool needed is a programme - or a collection of

programmes that will both relieve teams responsible for preparing
agricultural development projects of the physical task of making innumerable
calculations, and also improve the quality of their analysis, because the
models will be better used and, if necessary, further developed.

The tool should, above all, be fairly easy to use, so that it does
not itself create an additional constraint. This easiness should be on
different levels: the conceptual level and the level of detailed use. A good
programme will be conceptually easy for the user to understand, that is to
say, the nature of the operations conducted by the programme will have to be
the same as those conducted in the normal course of work; the project
analyst should not be obliged to change his working methods exclusively in
order to adapt himself to the way in which a programme has been conceived.
On the level of detailed use of the programme, it is again important to
remain as close as possible to the user's way of working and his normal
vocabulary. If expressions or new words have to be defined, it is important
to choose precise and self-explanatory words, which do not lend themselyes
to mistaken interpretation, and are easy to remember. It is also important
to adopt, in programme/user communication, a style that will be maintained
consistently throughout the programme. These observations may appear
elementary, but experience shows that the end is not always easy to attain,
and the degree of use of the programme, and therefore its impact on the work
of analysis, will often depend to a very large extent on factors of this
order.

An important element is the facility of initiation into the use of

the programme. With a good programme, it should be possible to learn very
quickly (say, in a one-hour demonstration at the most) to do a number of
simple operations alone, which already amounts to actual use of the tool.
Hore sophisticated applications will be gradually developed.

It is also important not to have to remember a large amount of

information in order to use the programme efficiently, rather than having
recourse to a handbook, it would be better to include in the programme
itself the necessary amount of documentation, easily accessible to the user.

Since the programme has to be used for a great variety of projects,

and to make analyses at different levels of detail, it should be fairly
versatile. In particular, it should be possible, if necessary, to build up
models gradually, that is to say, to put in only certain data, make certain
calculations, add data, correct and develop the model, etc.

Lastly, since the work is carried out in several phases, and in

places geographically very distant from each other (for example, a project
studied in Latin America, whose preparation report will be finalized in
Rome, and later appraised by the World Bank in Washington), it would be
desirable that the same computing tool should be accessible at different
stages in the work. This raises both the problem of availability of
 23

equipment and that of transportability of programmes and data, that is to

say, the greater or lesser facility of installing a programme on different
equipment.

It will be seen later in this chapter, and in Chapter V, that the

reality is still relatively far from the above ideal, and that each
programme is the result of choices and compromises: the greatest versatility
of use does not always mean ease of use, and the more possibilities a
programme offers, the larger it is and the more problems will be raised in
regard to capacity of equipment and transferability.

The computing tools presented in this work are, as mentioned in

Chapter II, mainly programmes intended to formulate and treat determinist
models of budgetary simulation. Even if these programmes can be used in
other fields, they have been developed specifically for the preparation (or
appraisal) of agricultural projects in developing countries, which is
reflected in the way in which the data is organized and the nature of the
calculations made. But within this same framework there are programmes
conceived in a very different way.

The following sections of this chapter present three different

conceptual approaches, which are the table manipulation, the general
structuring of the data, and the detailed structuring. The particular case
of animal husbandry projects is then presented. The last section sets out
the respective advantages and limitations of the approaches proposed, and
outlines the functional specifications of an integrated system of programmes
intended to come as close as possible to the ideal characteristics mentioned
above.

Before presenting these different concepts, which correspond

fundamentally to different levels of data structuring, the following section
touches on a very important practical problem, that of programme-user
communication.

B. Interface with the user

There are several ways of conceiving the interface (that is to say,
the liaison) between a computer programme and its user.

The first, historically, is the use of punch cards, corresponding to

those of batch processing systems: in order to maximize the use of large-
scale systems, the different tasks to be undertaken are put into a queue,
the information (that is to say, the data and the instructions for executing
the programme) being fed into the system through a punch card reader. This
method, still very popular in some fields of application, is not at all
suitable for analysis programmes and work, where it is desirable that the
analyst should be able to change a datum very quickly, obtain new results,
develop his model, etc. This type of work is hardly compatible with the
above-mentioned systems, which usually require the transcription of the data
on forms (whose format is often too rigid), the despatch of the forms to a
punching centre, the return of the cards to the processing centre, and the
return of the user to the processing centre after some hours to collect the
results, sometimes only to find that mistakes have been made in the cards,
which means that nothing has yet been calculated, and so on.

The development of computer systems means that it should no longer

be necessary to have recourse to such methods. All the programmes presented
in this work, and still used, are so-called interactive programmes,
accessible at terminals on time-sharing or monostation systems and written
24

in conversational style: the programme requests, through a message to the

terminal, the input of information on the keyboard from the user and reacts
correspondingly.
In such a context, the user/programme dialogue can take two
different forms, which correspond to very different structures of the
underlying programme. The first form is that of the question-and-answer
system, with the selection of options presented in the form of a menu; the
second is that of communicating with the programme by way of a certain
number of predefined key words, that is to say, a language specific to the
programme (command language or modelization language). Each of these two
approaches has advantages and disadvantages, each has its defenders,
sometimes unwavering, and its opponents. Lastly, and whateve~ the system
chosen, one very important aspect of the user interface is the treatment of
errors.

1. Menu System

The programme is organized on the functional level in a number of

modules, and each module in sub-modules, functions, etc. At each level of
the structure, a menu makes it possible to select the required option; when
a certain function requires the supply of parameters, or data, the programme
calls them explicitly, and the user enters them on the keyboard. The
questions and the menus can easily be accompanied by explanations and
comments displayed on the terminal screen, facilitating still further the
use of the programme.

Such a system has the main advantage of being very easy to use,· to
the extent that messages are sufficiently explicit. The user only needs to
know how to call the programme and start it, and then just let himself be
guided. fhis is very "soothing" for users who are not familiar with data
processing and are frightened of making mistakes, the consequences of which
they cannot assess.

The disadvantage is that the system can easily become very

cumbersome, and sometimes relatively slow, since every stage, every datum
has to be explained.

Another problem is the difficulty there could be in "getting out of"

a certain module of the programme, if the user realizes he has made a
mistake: he will usually be obliged to go to the end of the sequence, then
change over to another module to correct the effects of the error. The
structure of logical modules should be based on the user's way of working,
and should make a "normal" sequence of operations easy, but such a result is
sometimes difficult to achieve. Sometimes it is necessary to go back three
or four menus in a hierarchy to get out of one operation, and then select
three of four successive options to arrive at the next function it is
intended to execute.

The menu system is, therefore, all the more difficult to work
properly when the programme presents a greater diversity of functions and
requires more data. When a system is developed including several programmes
corresponding either to different approaches or to specific problems - it
is desirable that the programmes should always be structured in the same
way, always using the same vocabulary.

The approach selected for programmes developed by the author and

described in the following chapter is based on a systematic separation
between data and calculations. As required, the results can be separated
 25

from data, or on the contrary can be integrated in the data base. One will
always therefore find, in one way or another, the following modules:

1) Enter data.

2) Correct data.

3) Print data.

4) Hake calculations.

5) Print results.

6) End.

The first module will always be called first when the programme is
launched. It provides an opportunity to enter data on the keyboard, or to
retrieve old data stored in the system (on a disc, for example). It will
then be possible to call the modules in any order, undefined, until the
"end" module is selected to stop the session. The most serious disadvantage
of this method, which is easy to understand and use, is at the level of data
input; for example, if an error occurs in the process of entering data, it
is extremely tiresome to have to follow a long sequence of operations if
this happens to be the case - to complete the work of data input, before
being able to correct the error by operating modul• 2 (data editing). It is
far more convenient for the user to be able to interrupt the data input,
correct his error and forget it, and take up the remainder at the point of
interruption.

2. Command Language

Access to the different functions available in the programme is

accomplished by typing a key word or a series of instructions, followed by
the necessary data. If the data is not supplied, the programme may either
attribute values by default, or display a message requesting the data (as in
a menu system).

The major advantage of such an approach is its greater flexibility:

there is direct access to any function of the programme, by a specific
instruction. The work of typing can also be limited by allowing the
abbreviation of key words. An experienced user can thus put in his
instructions very rapidly, and if all the parameters have values by default
within the programme, it will be enough to specify the values exclusively in
the cases where they are different.

Unfortunately, this flexibility and this rapidity of use have their

prices: the user must know the instructions of the "language" and the
default parameter values. This is why such systems are often more difficult
for the novice, will require more intensive training, and will not be
utilized in depth in the absence of substantial documentation (the latter
problem can be minimized if the system contains instructions making it
possible to call this documentation to the screen in an easy way).
26

Combined systems could be devised, where a first level of selection

of operations to be performed would be made through a command language and
where the detailed necessary information would then be called by the
programme, using either questions and answers, or forms which have to be
completed (or corrected on the screen if the values are already there,
whether they are values by default or data previously introduced).

One advantage of the system by command language is that it is easy -

from the user's point of view - to pass from the immediate execution of
instructions to the programming of procedures, since the definition of a
sequence of operations is nothing more than storage, for later retrieval, of
the series of instructions which had been provided by direct execution.

This leads to a third possible way of communication with the system,

which could be called modelization language.

3. Modelization Language

Command language can be used, no longer directly, in reply to a

message from the system, but to write a text (for example, with a standard
programme for text processing), which correponds to the definition of tasks
that the user wishes to see performed by a programme. The text can later be
processed by the programme, and the series of corresponding opeations will
be executed. A simple way of modifying the model thus defined consists in
correcting the instructions or the data at the level of the source text,
then processing it again with the programme. The procedure - although it has
the same disadvantages as command language, that is to say, the need f~r a
more intensive training than in the case of menus - can be improved by the
preparation of "standard texts" corresponding to the definition of various
models, and possibly containing instructions for use, texts which can be
copied and corrected to define a specific model.

Among the programmes presented in Chapter 5, some combine the use of

menus and text files, other use command language and modelization language.

4. Treatment of Errors

Whatever the system selected for the programme/user interface, the

way in which errors are treated should be the same, and this is a
fundamental aspect of the qualities of a programme.

The principles are simple:

- Errors made by the user should never lead to the termination of the
programme or the loss of data.

- The programme should, as far as possible, test the instructions and

the data it receives, and detect logical errors (and particularly
when data can only take certain values, test the data by comparison
with correct values).

- Messages indicating error should be explicit, not ambiguous, making

it possible to easily correct the error.

In practice these guidelines are not so simple to follow: it could

be that some implicit hypotheses are not identified and the programme could
either halt or give invalid results if the data takes on unexpected values;
or else certain messages, which are obvious to the programmer or to some
 27

users, appear incomprehensible to others (but this should be easy to

correct); or else certain errors on the user's part - not foreseen when the
programme was developed - are impossible or too difficult to correct (even
if they are minor errors, not disturbing the validity of the results, this
could be particularly frustrating for the user).

c. First Approach: Table Manipulation

1. General Conception

The data used to represent a project can be represented in the form

of "variables", a variable being a time series of values, for a number of
periods corresponding to the duration of the analysis, and associated with a
name. The time basis will be annual, and a year zero is included to indicate
the before project values of the variables. When the without project
situation is to be considered constant, the year zero of the project
variable is thus enough to represent also the without project situation.
When it is intended to specify a phenomenon on a more detailed time basis,
by month, for example, the simplest thing is to specify a variable for each
sub-period. This organization of data can be visualized as a table where the
lines are the variables, the name of the variable being the title of the
line, and where the columns correspond to years, hence the name "table
manipulation" of this approach.

Each variable represents an element of the costs or benefits of a

project, either in physical quantities or in value. A farm model, a project,
will be nothing more than the algebraic total of a certain number of these
variables; calculation of the models will consist basically of conducting
operations on certain variables (input data) and thus creating new variables
(results).

It should be possible to make the calculations and use the other

available functions by two different methods: the direct method, in which a
function is selected, the necessary data provided, and the function
performed on the spot; and the "programmed" method, in which a series of
operations can be defined - with all the data necessary for each operation -
and afterwards carried out, like a programme. The programmed method makes it
possible to define a model based on the elementary functions available and
to recalculate the model as often as desired, that is to say, whenever
changes are introduced in the original data.

A simplified example will illustrate this general concept: a project

to build an irrigation system for rice cultivation may be summed up in the
following variables: investments (construction of system, perhaps access
road, administrative buildings, etc.), area under rice (year by year),
yield, expenditure (extension, for example). Production will be a calculated
variable (area multiplied by yield), as will value of production. The price
will, depending on circumstances, be a constant in the definition of a
calculating operation, or else another variable (if it is not constant). It
only remains to substract the different cost lines from the value of the
production, to obtain the net value of the project.

The power of a programme will be directly related to the nature of

the calculation functions available. An essential aspect of the development
of the programme will therefore be the identification of the necessary
calculation mechanisms, which are described in the following section.
28

2. Necessary Calculation Functions

The functions described below must be included in a programme of the

table manipulation type in order to perform the necessary calculations for
the great majority of models which the author has worked on. Exceptions are
specific cases such as the herd models (see IV.F. below) or special models
(forestry project described in III.A.5). Some of these functions have been
developed to meet specific demands from programme users. It is the existence
of such functions that makes the difference between the programmes presented
in the following chapter, and the commercial programmes that have been
developed for business management application (of which the best-known
example is the VISICALC programme).

The functions can be put into four categories. A fifth category

would cover the calculation functions which can also be envisaged for
generating values at the time of data input.

a. Algebraic and Elementary Handling Functions

If X and Y are variables, and a, band c constants, the following

functions will be indispensable or at least useful:

i) Algebraic calculations: ax+ b, aXY + b, aX/Y + b, aX + bY + c.

ii) Incremental values compared with year zero.

iii) Cumulative values from one year to another.

iv) Advancing or delaying a series of values for a number of years (for

sensitivity analysis of the time spent on achieving certain project
objectives, for example); it can be decided that the value stored in
year zero or in the last year depending on the direction of
displacement - copies itself.

v) Conditional algebraic calculation: functions of the type calculating

a X + b Y + c if Xis positive, or if Xis negative, or if X and Y
are positive or nil, etc., mean that values can be calculated
according to the sign of a variable. For example, if Xis a variable
representing the balance between labour requirements and
availability of family labour for a farm, a function such as
calculating a X if X < O (otherwise the result of t~e calculation is
zero) will make it possible to calculate the cost of hired labour
(the constant~ being the price).

vi) Transfer to the following period: calculating a X + b Y + c; if the

result is negative, tranferring it to the following period. Such a
function would, for example, mean that, if Xis the consumption and
Y the production of a product which can be stored on a farm in
case of surplus the quantities to be purchased could be
calculated:

~ ill1:.
Jl 1 2. .J.
1 Consumption 10 16 20 20
2 Production 12 12 12 12
3 Consumption/production -2 4 8 8
4 Purchase 0 2 8 8
 29

In the above table, variable 3 is the difference between variables

and 2, whereas variable 4 is calculated with the function of transfer (X =
1, Y = 2, a= 1, b = -1, c = 0, result in 4).

b. Phasing Calcultation
This type of calculation (already described in Chapter III, Section
A.2) is fundamental in the study of agricultural projects, where the
increase in production develops over several years.

The function is used to aggregate data corresponding to a unit of an

activity by the number of units entering the project each year. A "unit
variable" will correspond, for example, to the yield of a perennial crop
each year from the date of plantation, or else the expansion each year of
the production of a farm entering a project in year 1, in the light of the
duration of extension activity or of gradual realization of investments. The
"phasing variable" gives the number of hectares planted each year, or the
number of farms gradually entering the project. The data series of the unit
variable is multiplied by the number of units in year 1, then shifted by one
year towards the right, then multiplied by the number of units of year 2,
and so on.

If the without project situation is considered constant, and is

represented by the value of the unit variable for year zero, this value will
be copied in years 1 and 2, for example, to represent the situation of units
entering the project in year 3. The calculation could in fact be made by
specifying a sufficient number of multiplications, additions and shifting,
with the elementary functions of the above section.

But the calculation thus made is no longer correct if the without

project situation is not projected as constant. In this case, two unit
variables are necessary, one for the without project situation and one for
the with project situation. The example below explains how the calculations
should be made. The method of calculation is different depending on whether
one wants results in total value or in incremental value (compared with the
without project situation).

Y.e..ll
Q 1 .2. l i li Q

Unit variable
Yield with project 1, 5 2 2,5 3 ----> year 20
Yield without project 1 1 I 1 2 I 1 2 I 1 2 I ----> year 20
eauiag llariab,le
Number of ha (supplementary) 10 20 20

Results - total values

ha of year 1 10 15 20 25 30 30 30
ha of year 2 20 22 30 40 50 60 60
ha of year 3 20 22 24 30 40 50 60
Total 50 59 74 95 120 140 150

Bf!liYltli - Iai;;rewf!a:tal ~slY~S

ha of year 1 4 8 13 18 18 18
ha of year 2 0 6 16 26 36 36
ha of year 3 0 0 6 16 26 36
Total 4 14 35 60 80 90
30

for example, the incremental value of year 3 for the 20 ha entering

the project in year 2 is equal to the with project yield in year (3 - 2 t
1), or 2, less the without project yield in year 3, or 1. 2, multiplied by
20, or a value of 16.

The phasing function will therefore present different options:

- Constant without project situation, represented by year zero of the

unit variable, or else non-constant without project situation,
represented by a specific unit variable.

- Number of units in the phasing variable in total values or in

incremental values (compared with year zero).

- Results in total values or in incremental values.

Finally, it would be useful to be able to specify the calculation,

not on one variable at a time but on a block of variables, since it will
frenquently happen, for example, that several parameters of the same crop
(production, inputs) have to be aggregated by the same phasing variable
(area).

c. Functions of Calculation of Rate of Return and sensitivity ~nalysis

The programme can be provided with elementary functions, based on

one variable alone, to calculate the present value and the rate of return
(ROR). In the latter case, the calculation will be made automatically on the
incremental values compared with year zero.

A single function will usefully combine these calculations with a

sensitivity analysis: the "balance and switching values" function will make
the following calculations:

- The algebraic sum of a number of variables, storing the results in a

variable "balance". A weight coefficient should be specified for
each component variable, for example, -1 to subtract. This would
also lead to a first form of sensitivity analysis (specifying a
coefficient equal to 1.2 means increasing the weight of the variable
by 201. in the balance). But these coefficients should be used with
caution if the values of year zero are not nil: The coefficient is
applicable to the entire time series; to increase a whole variable
by 201., including year zero, could have some sense or not, depending
on the circumstances; it is up to the analyst to understand what he
is doing.

- The calculation of rate of return can be optional (it may be desired

to use the function exclusively for adding a number of variables).
It consists in calculating the ROR of the balance, and the present
values and the switching values of each component variable, as set
out in Chapter III (Section A.2). The present values correspond,
like the switching values, to total values of variables (that is to
say, values stored in the years from 1 to the end of the period),
and a new variable, known as "without project balance", will
correspond to the projection of the balance of year zero values over
the period (sign changed: a benefit in without project situation is
deducted from the with project value). It is important to understand
that switching values will have a different meaning depending upon
 31

whether the stored values in the variables are total or incremental.

Let us assume that the value of production of a cereal should be 100
without project and 150 with project. If the calculation is made
with a variable containing the total values (100 in year zero, 150
in following years), a switching value of 20t. will correspond to 20t.
of 150, therefore to a variation of 30. If a "value of increm~ntal
production" variable has been used (0 in year zero, 50 in following
years), a rate of 20t. will correspond to a variation of 10, or
conversely a variation of 30 will correspond to a rate of 601.. In
other words, interpretation of the switching value is not the same
whether the variable represents total values or incremental ones.

d. Financial Functions

(i) Calculation of Debt Service

It is very useful to be able to specify the characteristics of a

loan in a model, and to have available functions calculating the debt
service. In particular, this will make it easy to decide, on the basis of a
few trials, the conditions of credit which would suit any given investment
programme, for example, by changing the interest rate, or the grace period,
and by recalculating the model to see how the cash-flow balance reacts.

In practice, one function on an annual basis will certainly be

enough. The necessary input parameters will be the interest rate, the grace
period, and the number of years for repayment. A number of options will· be
useful:

- Interest paid, or not, during the grace period.

- Repayment in the form of constant total annual instalments or

repayment of principal in constant annual instalments.

Possible calculation, apart from debt service, of the interest

component and the principal component in annual repayments, and of
outstanding debt at year end.

The calculated loan values will be stored in a variable. It will be

useful to specify whether the values should be considered as separate loans
(with the same characteristics), or as a single loan. The first case will,
for example, amount to a credit which is renewed each year; or will allow in
the same variable the specification of a loan for an investment, and then
its renewal after several years. The second case corresponds to a single
loan, of which disbursements extend over several years, a frequent situation
which arises in the financing of investments made over a long period. It is
important in this case that the programme should not allow for the
specification of a grace period which would imply a first repayment before
the end of the disbursement.

(ii) Calculation of Depreciation

If it is intended to use the programme to calculate financial models

of an accounting type, a function of depreciation calculation will be
useful, able to calculate the amounts of depreciation in one variable, and
the residual accounting value of the assets in another. Several methods of
calculation can be envisaged (degressive depreciation), or the function can
32

be limited to the calculation of a linear depreciation.

(iii) Interest on Overdraft

This function was conceived to make it possible to prepare financial

analysis models (projections of cash-flow and balance) which balance
automatically, assuming that cash-flow deficits are automatically financed
by an overdraft (short-term credit) of which the agios are imputed to the
following exercise. Assuming that the "cash-flow balance before losses and
profits" and the "losses and profits before agios on overdraft" are stored
in two variables, the function will calculate four new variables:

- Interest paid on overdraft.

- Balance of Profit and Loss Account (including interest on

overdraft).

- Cash-flow balance.

- Cumulated cash-flow balance.

e. Functions to "create" Variables

When the initial variables of a set of data are defined, the values
should be entered on the keyboard. The burden of work can be lightened by
introducing a number of functions which will allow the specification of only
a few values, the programme calculating the others:

(il Automatic Repetition

Quite frequently, the values of a variable evolve over several

years, after which the variable remains constant until the end of the period
of analysis. It is important not to have to repeat this value. A convention
should allow the programme to generate the end of the series (this could be
the explicit specification of the number of years during which the data
vary, or the repetition by default of the last value specified, or the use
of a code such as the value PI in an interpreted system disposing of the
function PI on the keyboard, etc.).

(ii) Cyclic Repetition

In the case of a forestry project being analysed over a long period

(50 years, for example), and in which there are several fellings, it will
be very useful to have a function allowing for automatic repetition of the
series of 10 to 15 values corresponding to a production cycle.

(iii) Interpolation

Often an expert will be ~n a position to say, for example: the yield

of this particular crop will rise from its present value to such and such a
value in so many years. The intermediate values are interpolated, either in
a linear way, or by an S curve (a sigmoid curve, also called logistic curve,
corresponding to the observed rate of development of many phenomena linked
to a process of training, for example, agricultural yields in the context of
an extension programme).
 33

(iv) Use of Percentages

If fertilizer consumption for one crop, for example, is specified at

fu 1 1 d eve 1 opmen t f or year 6 , l·t '"1·11
" be useful to be able to specify
previous values in the form of percentages of final value (50t. year 2,
etc.) .

(vl Exponential Compound Growth Function

One variable may have an initial value of 25, and increase by 5t. per
annum from year 2 until year 10, then remain constant.

lvil Definition by Reference to Another Yariabl~

The values of a variable X are defined by the value for a given year
and a form of variation corresponding to another variable Y previously
defined.

Example X = 10 in final value

.1. 1
y 5 10 23 37 50
X 1 2 4, 6 7,4 10

Thus, for example, one could extrapolate the consumption of an input

X in accordance with the estimate of the yield in Y.

3. Tables

A project, with its different components and several farm models,

will· represent a considerable number of variables. Out of this whole, which
can be visualized as a big table with several hundreds of lines, and as many
columns as there are years (Oto 20 classically), it should be possible to
easily extract lines and columns in order to specify different levels of
table detail depending on the different elements of the analysis.

It is very important that the tables should be prepared in such a

way that they can be directly photocopied into reports; the typing of
figures in tables is in fact a long and unpleasant job, with a high risk of
error, thus it would be ridiculous to have to retype tables simply because
the programme prints figures and data in an incomprehensible way, or in a
way which the user does not like.

o. Second Approach; Detailed Structuring of Data

I

1. General conception
The general idea consists of organizing the data (the "variables" of
the preceding approach) into specific data types which imply directly to the
programme a number of standard calculations and output tables. Thus all the
work of specification of calculations and tables is eliminated for the user.

The project is supposed to have a hierarchical structure. At the

lowest level are the crops, defined by their yield and the needs in factors
of production; the crops are combined, with investments if necessary, into
farm models. The farm models are added at the level of sub-areas or
components of the project, and/or the whole of the project area. At each
34

level, it is possible to add other elements of costs or benefits (for

example, infrastructure, extension service, etc.).

Such a programme will have the advantage of requesting the user to

specify the data according to categories corresponding to a concrete
reality. The types of data and the predefined tables will be a powerful
element for standardization of the analysis methodology and the presentation
of reports.
The degree of flexibility of the programme will depend directly on
the variety of data envisaged at the conception of the programme, and the
categories of calculations and tables that will have been predefined.

The two following sections present the list of types of data and
results desirable to include in such a programme.

2. Types of Data

At each hierarchical level of the model, it is possible to pre-

define all the possible categories of data, but in all cases an open
category must be envisaged, that is to say, the possibility of specifying a
line of values with a name (a "variable" of the type of the manipulation
table in the first approach), or else two categories (costs and benefits) in
order to avoid having to give the data an algebraical sign.

The principal categories of data could be the following:

- Prices: at this level the list of productions and inputs of the

project could be defined, with their prices. A predefined category
may be envisaged for "labour force", in which could be defined
several types (family or wage-earning, skilled or unskilled, etc.).
The prices could be economic or financial.

- Crops: the following categories are necessary if it is intended to

cover all the cases that could arise: main production and by-
products (yield and losses), investment costs, inputs, labour force,
other production costs.

- Farm model: as well as the area occupied by each crop, it should be

possible to specify at this level a number of costs and benefits
that could be the subject of predefined categories: availability of
labour (by level of skills), household consumption, work outside the
farm, investments, operational costs (other than those directly
attributable to the crops) and various other costs, taxes and
charges, sources of finance (personel contribution, loans).

- Component of the project and/or total project: at this level, the

distribution of holdings according to the farm models could be
specified, and the rate of entry of these holdings into the project,
as well as a number of cost or benefit variables applicable at this
level (example: access roads, extension services, etc.).

The programme should make it possible to specify either one set of

data, including year zero, corresponding to a without project situation
projected as constant, or two sets of data, with and without project. It
should also be possible to detail within the year consumption of factors of
production, or some productions. A choice could be made between the
possibility of defining sub-periods in the year and that of defining an
 35

input, for example, several times. That is to say, in a model on an

exclusively annual basis it is always possible to define twelve categories
(one per month) instead of one for work or irrigation water, for example.

3. Calculations Performed

Organization of the data in predefined specific categories means

that the programme can automatically perform all the necessary standard
calculations, and produce a set of tables sufficient to meet all needs.

The necessary calculations are defined by the nature of the output

tables required. The following will be needed:

- Prices.

- Crop models:

- production and consumption of inputs in quantity;

- labour requirements;

crop budgets, with gross margin, and margin after remuneration

of the family labour force (discounted against the cost of the
wage-earning labour force).

- Farm models:

production and consumption of inputs in quantity;

- labour requirements;

- farm budget: this table will present the sum of costs and
receipts, the benefit before financing, the sources of finance
and the debt service, the benefit after financing. At this
level the present value of the benefit can be calculated, and
its rate of return (either before or after financing, as
required).

- Sub-areas or components of the project, and the whole project:

- basically the same tables will be found at this level. The data
for production, consumption of inputs and labour, in quantity
or in value, will be broken down either by crop (as if the area
were one large farm) or by farm type.

The calculations - and the corresponding tables - will have to be

don9 either in economic prices or in financial prices, and either for the
with project situation, the without project situation, or the difference
between the two.
36

E. Third Aoproach: General structuring of Data

1. E!Jndamental Concepts: Commodjty. Activity. Plan

The idea is to seek a middle way between the two approaches

presented above, that is to say, a structuring of data which allows for
maximum predefinition of calculations and output tables, but which limits
the types of data, taking as a criterion of organization not the meaning of
these data (example: work), but the type of calculation to be made: all
information subject to the same type of calculation could be grouped under
the same type.

This approach was initially discovered by the author in the

conception of a programme called MADS (Multipurpose Agricultural Data
System), a programme developed in the context of joint activities conducted
by several countries on the use of computers in agriculture, within OECD
(ref. 42). The MADS programme is described in Chapter V. Some of the MADS
concepts and choices were abandoned, and other types of data introduced,
when several programmes derived from MADS, also described in Chapter V, were
being developed in FAO, Rome. The results of this work are described below.

It may be said that the calculations necessary to appraise an

agricultural development project usually come down to the following problem:
the calculation, at different future dates, of a number of costs and
benefits. These costs and benefits often correspond to data in physical
quantities multiplied by prices; it may be said in this case that they
correspond either to consumption or to the production of certain commodities
(such as, for example, production of grain, consumption of irrigation water.
or fertilizers, etc.). It will be noted that there is no fundamental
difference between consumption and production, only a difference of
algebraic sign. Also, even when costs and benefits correspond to data
introduced directly in value into the model, it is always possible to
represent them as corresponding to a certain quantity of an imaginary
commodity with a price equal to the unit. It is therefore possible to
represent i!ll the costs and benefits of a project as the consumption or
production of a certain commodity. Thus anything which has a price and is
either consumed or produced by the project is called a "commodity": the
"commodity" is defined by a name, a unit, and a price (or, more exactly, a
time series of prices; one can also conceive of linking several sets of
prices to the commodities: financial price, economic price, foreign exchange
component etc.).

The project calculations amount to working out (for a crop, a farm

model, a project component or the whole project) the consumption and
production of commodities, and the consumption/production balance for
commodities which are both consumed and produced. It is therefore necessary
to see how these consumptions and productions will be specified in the
models.

Anything in a project which consumes and/or produces commodities may

be described as an "activity". The typical activity is the crop: 1 ha of
sorghum, for example, which produces grain and straw and consumes labour,
seed, etc. But the concept is far more general: dairy cow activity consumes
feed and labour and produces milk (and meat when the animal is culled); the
activity of building dams consumes labour and cement during construction,
then produces electricity and irrigation water, etc.
 37

An activity will be defined by a name, a unit, a list of

commodities, with an indication for each commodity as to whether it is
consumed or produced and also the corresponding level (in the form of a time
series of values).

The level of production thus corresponds to the yield of a crop. The

difference between consumption and production is exclusively the algebraic
sign of the level. There is nothing to stop the same commodity from
appearing more than once in the definition of an activity, whether in
production or in consumption, with different levels corresponding, for
example, one to production (yield) and the other to consumption (losses).
Very often, there will be a labour commodity which is produced by a family
activity which also consumes part of the productions of the farm - and
consumed by crop activities; or else a grass commodity produced by a pasture
activity and consumed by a cow activity.

The different activities are combined linearly in a new structure of

data called a ~ - A plan will be, for example, a combination of crops and
other activities in a farm model, or else the aggregation of farm models at
project level. A plan is therefore a linear combination of activities or
plans. It is defined by a name, a unit, a list of components (activities,
plans, or other types of data defined below), and for each component the
corresponding ~ (in the form of a time series of values), and also an
indicator stating the calculation method to be adopted: annual or phased.

This last idea can best be explained through an example: that is, a
rice commodity, a rice activity that produces rice, and an "irrigated area"
plan which specifies the number of hectares of rice irrigated during· the
project.

The data would therefore be presented as follows:

Q l .§. ---> g_q

Commodit~
Rice (tons) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Activit~
Rice ( 1 ha)
Rice commodity 1,2 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 3,5 3,5
Plan
Area
Rice activity 100 200 300
(additional ha - phasing)

This data means that the "area" plan includes the rice activity, at
the level of 100 ha in year 1, 200 ha more in year 2, 200 ha more in year 3.
The "rice activity" produces 1.2 t/ha before the project, and the yield as a
result of the project rises from 2 to 3.5 t/ha in 4 years. The price of the
rice is 150/t. There are two possible ways of calculating the production of
the area:

ii If the yield depends on the year of the project, all that needs to
be done is to multiply the value of the yield for a given year by
the total level of activity of the same year (that is to say, the
total area under the crop). In the above example, the production in
year 3 would be 600 ha x 3 t/ha = 1 800 t. This method of
calculation is called annual.
38

ii) If the yield depends on the age of the activity, that is to say, on
the number of years which have passed since the entry of the
activity into the project, the calculation must be made according to
the phasing method described in Section C.2.2 of thi's chapter. In
the above example, production in year 3 would be:
(300 ha x 2 t/ha) + (200 ha x 2.5 t/ha)
+ (100 ha x 3 t/ha) = 1.400 t.
This example illustrates several points:

- In the definition of a plan, it is necessary to specify the

type of calculation needed, annual method or phasing method;
the calculation will always be made in total values; in the
case of a non-constant without project situation, it will be
defined by another activity (rice without project) and a
corresponding plan; the additional values will be calculated by
the difference between the two plans (that is to say, a plan
composed of the "project" plan at level 1 and the "without
project" plan at level -1, with calculation by annual method).

- If the calculation is by the phasing method, it is necessary to

state whether the level of components is expressed in a total
number of units, or in an additional number of units compared
with the previous period. The level will always be a total
number of units in the case of calculation by the annual
method.

- There is no difference between an annual crop and a perennial

crop at the level of definition of an activity; the possible
difference will be at the level of the method of calculation of
a plan. The above example shows that the phasing method covers
far more cases than those of perennial crops and other lasting
activities.

- When the calculation of aggregation by phasing is done at

several levels and the without project situation is not
constant, i t is important to have a clear idea of the
mechanisms of the calculations in order to avoid the risk of
error in the results.

The three concepts of commodity, activity and plan are extremely

general and a wide variety of models can be expressed using them alone;
however, some operations are difficult or even impossible to specify. It has
therefore been necessary to allow for other types of data organization as
well, which are described in the following section.

2. Refinements: Complementary Types of Data

This section describes three complementary types of data which have

been introduced to meet specific operations: these are investments, credit
operations, and transfer activities. Another method of organizing data -
known as "aggregate" - will then be described, and the section will end with
a discussion of the way in which details may be specified by sub-period in
the year.
 39

a. Investments

Jt is a current practice - often linked with financing mechanisms -

to distinguish in project costs what is investment and what is operating
cost, even if the distinction sometimes seems arbitrary. For example,
operating costs in the initial period of a project could be considered as
investments, as, for example, the deferred costs within the accounting plan
for an enterprise. In the present context, the type "investment" has been
conceived not only to make it easier to distinguish this category of costs
in the tables of data and results, but also to provide a number of specific
functions of calculation, corresponding to the usual way of treating
investments. The type "investment" may be seen as being, in the hierarchical
structure of the project, intermediate between the commodity and the
activity; it will be specified as a component of a plan, just as an activity
or another plan.

An investment will be defined by a name, a unit and a unit price -

like a commodity. The number of units for each period (for example, the
number of vehicles purchased each year, or the number of hectares
developed), comparable to the level of a commodity in an activity, will be
defined at the level of inclusion in a plan. If the investment is directly
specified in value, there will be specified either a price equal to the
unit, the values being introduced at the level of the inclusion in a plan,
or a price corresponding to the values, the level of the investment in a
plan being then 1. A number of other parameters will also be specified in
the definition of the investment type, corresponding to the particular
functions available, which are:

- Duration of life of the investment, allowing for the automatic

calculation of its replacement, and residual value at end of life,
expressed in percentage of the initial cost.

- Percentage of cost to be added to the total for physical

contingencies (the normal technique to estimate the amount for
contingencies to be added to an estimate).

- Percentage of the cost used to calculate the costs of maintenance of

the investment, according to a method currently employed for certain
types of investments (buildings, irrigation systems, roads, for
example), and number of initial years after the realization of the
investment during which this cost of maintenance is not applied.

b. Credit Operations

We find here again the need to dispose of a function for calculating

debt service, as already detailed with regard to the "handling table" type
of model (Section C.2.4.1).

A credit operation will be defined by a name, a unit, a series of

values representing the loan amounts each year, and by the parameters
necessary to define the operation: interest rate, grace period, number of
years for repayment, type of repayment (constant or capital constant),
interest paid or not during the grace period, series of values of the loan
to be treated as a single loan or as so many separate loans. The series of
values could be the result of calculations of a plan, that is to say an
investment, or costs of production. The level of the credit operation in a
plan corresponds to the part of these costs to be financed by a loan. For
example, a credit operation specified on the basis of the category of
40

"hydro-agricultural management" investment, and introduced in a plan at

level o. 1, means that 707. of this investment will be financed by a loan.

c. Transfer Activities

Elements of cost or benefit of a project, which depend on the

results of the calculation of a plan, cannot be defined directly with the
concepts of activity and plan. The most obvious example is that of farm
work; the quantity of wage-earning labour that will have to be used depends
on the balance between the availability of a family labour force and the
labour requirements of each activity (crop) of the model. The consumption of
the commodity "wage-earning labour force" will depend on the
production/consumption balance of the commodity_ "labour" in the plan "farm".
This mechanism of calculation is applied in many cases: calculation of a
subsidy based on fertilizer consumption, calculation of charges in
proportion to the value of production, calculation of the a la part"
remuneration of the crew of a fishing vessel, purchase of feed concentrates
depen~ing on a fodder balance, etc.

The concept of transfer activity was developed by the author to deal

with this type of situation. Say there are two commodities, one called
"source commodity" (SC), and the other "transferred commodity" (TC). A
transfer activity is an operation which, when it is introduced as component
of a plan, is reflected in the algebraic addition to the
consumption/production balance of the commodities in a plan as a
"transferred commodity", at a level determined by .the balance of another
commodity (deficit or surplus, for the year under consideration, of the
source commodity") multiplied by a "correspondence coefficient" (CC).

When the TC represents, for example, compensation for an SC deficit,

this SC deficit should be cancelled by the transfer activity; this mechanism
is called "compensation transfer", or "transfer back". When the TC is added
to the balance of the plan without influencing the SC values (calculation of
a subsidy or a charge, for example), there is no transfer back.

The concept may be illustrated by two simple examples:

For a certain year of a certain plan, we have:

Labour consumed (by crops): -150

Labour produced (by the family): 130
Balance -20

If one introduces into the plan a transfer activity covering the TC

"hired labour", based on the SC "labour", with a coefficient CC= -1 (that
is to say, in a ratio 1 : 1, and shown as a cost) and with transfer back,
the result will be:

Labour consumed -150

Labour produced 130
Transfer Hired labour -20
Labour (compensation) 20
Balance Labour 0
Hired labour -20

Example without transfer back:

 41

A plan produces grain. A tax equal, for example, to 20t. of the value
of the grain must be paid. A "charges" commodity will be defined, whose
price is equal to that of the grain, and a transfer activity with grain as
source and charges as TC, with a CC equal to -0.2:

Grain produced 120

Transfer Charges -24
Balance Grain 12 0
Charges -24
Balance 96

In summary, a transfer activity is defined by:

- A source commodity, SC. The definition could be generalized by using

as source, possibly, an investment or an aggregate (see below).

- A transferred commodity, TC.

- An indicator saying whether the transfer is based on an SC surplus

or deficit, and if this should be considered in quantity or in value
(this distinction is necessary to decide the meaning of the CC).

- An indicator saying whether or not there is to be a compensation

operation (i.e. transfer back).

The TC level is equal to the absolute value of the deficit or the

surplus, as the case may be, multiplied by the CC.

The correspondence coefficient can be specified in the form of the

~ of the transfer activity in a plan. This will therefore be a time
series and not a single value (so that it could deal with the case, for
example, of a subsidy whose rate would be degressive).

The transfer back of SC in the case of compensation is equal to the

absolute value of the deficit if the operation is based on a deficit, or to
the absolute value of the surplus multiplied by -1 if the operation is based
on a surplus.

d. Aggregates

This is the name given to the specification of sub-totals, which

will be calculated automatically at the time of plan processing if it has
been defined within a set of data. Let us suppose, for example, that a model
includes the commodities millet seed, sorghum seed and fertilizer; an
aggregate "inputs" may be defined as equal to the sum of these three
commodities; at the time of calculating a plan, those commodities present in
the plan will be added together to calculate the aggregate. The components
of an aggregate can be commodities, investments, credit operations, or other
aggregates, and each component is attributed with a weighting coefficient
(which gives the aggregate a more general character than that. of a simple
sub-total). The aggregate can be calculated at choice, either exclusively on
the values, or on both the quantities and the values. A particularly
important application of aggregates concerns profitability analysis,
described later (Section 3).
42

e. Sub-periods in the Year

As set out in Section Din the case of detailed structuring of data,

detailed analysis of time periods within the year can be treated in two
ways:

i) In the interest of simplicity, the programme can be developed

without any specific provision. As many commodities can be defined
as periods are desired (for example, labour-January, labour-
February, etc., for a monthly analysis), and the annual totals can
be calculated using aggregates.

ii) It may be decided to "earmark" certain commodities as having to be

defined by sub-periods. In this case, attempts can be made to
simplify data input, for example, by specifying for one commodity
the annual total, and a distribution in percentage between the
different sub-periods of the year. The results of the calculation of
a plan will include, as well as the values for each sub-period, the
annual values for the sum of the deficits and for the sum of the
surpluses (there is no compensation from one sub-period to the
next). In the case of a transfer activity, these lines will serve as
a basis for calculation. Example: for a given year:

Labour consumed -150

Labour produced 130
Balance (without transfer) -20
By sub-periods: Sum of deficits 30
Sum of surpluses 10
Transfers: Hired labour -30
Labour (compensation) 30
Balance: Labour 10 (surplus)
Hired labour -30

3. Results

a. Standard Calculations

The calculations of a model are implied by the definition of a plan.

A plan can be composed of commodities, activities, investments, credit
operations, transfer activities, and other plans. The aggregates defined at
the level of a data set will automatically be calculated for any plan of the
model. According to the composition of the plan, the results, in the form of
tables of time series of values (year by year), will include all or some of
the following elements, either in quantity or in value:
 43

Commodities: - commodities consumed

- commodities produced
- commodities transferred
- balances of commodities
[nvestments: - investment and replacement
- physical contingencies
- maintenance of investments
- residual value
Credit operations: - loans
- total debt service (for each loan)
- interest component of debt service
- principal component of debt service
- outstanding loan at year end
Net value of plan
Aggregates.

The net value of the plan enables the present value and rate of
return to be calculated.

All the above calculations can be done automatically when a plan is

specified. The user will have to specify the results he wants printed: in
quantity or in value, and, if year zero is used to represent the without
project situation, total or incremental results compared with year zero.

b. Calculation of Rate of Return and sensitivity Analysis

As with any budgetary simulation model, a sensitivity analysis can
be made by changing the value of certain parameters and recalculating the
whole model to see the impact on the results.

Another method is the calculation of the switching values of each of

the variables composing a plan. At this level, it would be desirable to
introduce two options:

- Detailed calculation based on the whole plan, that is to say, on

each component (commodities, investments, loans) of switching
values.

- Calculation on an aggregate: the rate of return and the present

value will be calculated based on the value of the specified
aggregate, and the switching values on each component of the
aggregate (of which many will be other aggregates). The variables of
a model may thus be regrouped at the level of detail required for
the sensitivity analysis.

c. Importance of Data Organization to the Results

The flexibility of such a model is due to the fact that the nature
of the plan calculation results is directly specified through the definition
of commodities and other types of data. Depending on whether one or more
commodities (possibly all at the same price) are used as different
components of a plan, one or more lines of results will be obtained when the
plan is calculated. Similarly, as mentioned above, the level of detail of
the calculation of the switching values of the variables is fixed through
definition of aggregates.
44

The meaning of a result, or the possibility of calculating such and

such an element of a project, is directly linked to the way in which
activities and plans are defined.

Experience shows that the commodities-activities-plans system

enables a very great variety of situations to be described, sometimes at the
price of a little imagination in the specification of data.

F. A Special Case: Livestock Projects

1. The Problem

When a ranch project is studied in Latin America, or a project for

improvement of traditional animal husbandry in West Africa, it is difficult
to treat the herd in the static way that one treats "activities" or
·variables" in the models described above. The structure of the herd does
indeed change according to precise rules, which correspond to breeding
performance, to the rate of mortality, and to sales policy. The herd must be
studied as one would study a human population, that is to say, on a
demographic type model. It is only in simple cases, where the herd is small,
the demographic performance stable, and the possible mortality compensated
by purchase of new animals - in the cases, in other words, where the
breeding aspect of the herd is secondary - that one can do without such a
demographic model (in the case, for example, of European-style dairy animal
raising). In developing countries the breeding of young animals is often of
primary importance, and one of the major effects of any project will be an
improvement in the performance of such a breeding herd. The normal metho~ of
evaluation of the effects of such a project is the use of a demographic
model of the herd: the expected effects of project activities are
"translated" through a technical judgement based, for example, on similar
projects or on pilot programmes, into changes of the technical parameters
that define the animal population concerned. A purely mechanical calculation
will then translate these parameters into results: composition of the herd,
mortality, production.

The following section describes the principles governing the design

of this kind of model, and Section 3 sets out what are the other data that
must be taken into account in a study of this type, such as the different
productions (milk, manure, work, etc.), and particularly the overall size of
the herd, in the light of feed supplies available or any other criteria.

2. The Dynamic Hodel of the Herd

The herd will be divided into age classes by sex. The structure of
the herd will be completely defined by:

- Its initial composition.

- The demographic parameters: fertility rate, age on first calving,

mortality by class of age.

- The parameters of utilization: purchases and sales of animals.

 45

a. Structuring in Age Classes

Here again the base time will be the year, but some questions arise,
linked in particular to the fact that the multiplication of age classes
involves the need to specify a greater amount of data, which is not always
available.
The level of detail will depend on the method of utilizing the herd,
its level of performance, and the precision of available data. Ideally, a
programme should allow the user to define age classes according to needs,
either by aggregating a number of annual classes in one alone (for example:
females over three years, males of 3 to 5 years), or by subdividing one
class into two semesters, or even shorter periods (to be able to specify,
for example, that heifers move into the breeding cows class at 2 1/2 years).
The programme described in Chapter V was written for cattle herds, and the
definition of age classes is fixed, which in practice has sometimes turned
out to be a constraint. On the other hand, sufficient flexibility of
definition of age classes means that one can imagine that the same programme
could serve for different species (small ruminants, even pigs).

Another problem is knowing at what stage it is desirable to separate

from the rest of the males those animals intended for breeding. One simple,
but not always entirely satisfactory method of dealing with this problem
consists in one of the following two options: (i) treat all the males,
including those used for breeding, within the same categories, and (ii)
create a "breeding males" category outside the herd, for which sales will be
determined by a culling rate, and pruchases by the need to maintain a
certain ratio between male and female breeders. One possibility for the
frequent cases where breeders are born in the herd, but raised by different
methods as from a certain age - would be to specify, as from a certain age,
two classes of males. This would also require the definition of a system of
calculating the transfer of the animals between the two categories
(depending on the need for adult breeding males, for the herd itself and
possibly for sale).

b. Demographic Parameters

The parameters determining the evolution of the herd are rates of

fertility and of mortality.

In practice it will be enough to consider one rate of fertility

applying to all females of breeding age. The number of these females will
depend on the age of first calving, that is to say, the age at which the
females are transferred to the breeding group.

Mortality varies considerably according to age. It will therefore be

necessary to specify several rates. Without going as far as a rate for each
category of animals, four rates would be enough in the case of cattle: male
calves, female calves (in many regions, the care given to calves varies
according to the sex, and the rate of mortality could be very different),
animals from 1 to 2 years and animals over two years. Here again, a general
purpose programme could define on request the classes to which mortality
rates will apply.
46

c. Purchase and Sales Parameters

The last piece of information needed for complete determination of
the structure of the herd concerns purchases and sales of animals.

Purchases are usually expressed in numbers of animals, since they

represent very few operations decided a priori (one exception - already
pointed out - is that of male breeders), whereas sales are specified by
annual percentages of numbers of each age class: the culling/sales rate. It
will be necessary to specify a culling/sales rate year by year for each of
the age (and sex) classes of the herd. These rates will reflect the method
of management of the herd, and, to some extent, the marketing policy. The
production of a herd will be different - even with equal fertility and
mortality - if these rates are changed. In fact, one of the major interests
of this type of model is that it can be used to test the effects of a change
in method of exploitation of the herd, as shown by the example in Chapter VI
(Section a.4).

d. Method of Calculation

When the different detailed parameters above are fixed, the

structure of the herd is entirely determined. The data comes either from
surveys made in the area, or from information acquired in similar areas,
supported by information provided by experts working in the area, or even
the livestock-raisers themselves. The composition of the herd could be
calculated year by year by equations of the following type, assuming, for
example, that the numbers are counted at the end of the year:

Numbers in class 3-4 years (for example) in year t =

number in class 2-3 years in year t - 1
- mortality (that is to say, number X mortality rate)
- sales (that is to say, number X culling rate)
+ purchases.

The deciding element in the size of the herd will of course be the
number of female breeders. It will often happen that the size of the herd
must be limited (see following section) and that the application of the
parameters provided to define the model is reflected by continued growth of
the herd. It will be wise for the programme to be equipped with a
calculation mechanism which will automatically adjust the size of the herd
by selling - when necessary - more females than the application of culling
rates alone implies. The criteria could be a ceiling for the maximum number
of breeding females, but less "direct" criteria are sometimes desirable, as
discussed in the next section. A useful option would be to allow the user to
specify what age class (or classes) the surplus females should be culled
from for sale (should calves, heifers or cows old enough for breeding be
sold?).

The demographic model can be shown in three tables:

- Projection of the herd structure.

- Mortality (by age class and overall rate).

- Sales (by age class and overall rate).

 47

These results will serve to calculate the benefits linked to

utilization of the herd, and also the costs, which are proportionate to the
number of animals, as explained in the next section.

3. Other Elements to be taken into Consideration

To translate the results of the demographic model into a

cost/benefit analysis, a number of additional data, detailed below, must be
specified. Lastly, it would be desirable, in such a model, to be able to
link the mechanism of stabilization of the size of the herd described
above to factors such as, for example, the general availability of
pastureland, or even to be able to specify in a more detailed way the feed
needs/availabilities balance, which is one of the essential aspects of herd
management.

a. Cost/Benefit Data

The results of the herd projection of the demographic model will

enable a number of simple calculations (but burdensome to do manually) to be
made through the specification of the corresponding data:

ii The specification of weights - every year, to take account of the

improved performance of the animals under the effects of a project -
and the prices per kilogramme for each class of animal will make it
possible to calculate meat production, in quantity and in value (it
will be expressed in live weight or in carcass weight according to
data chosen).

ii) The model will also make it possible to specify the other
productions. Some of these productions can be pre-specified,
particularly milk, which will be specified by a yield and a price
(always year by year). It will be desirable to specify the yield by
lactation and not by year; changes in fertility rates will thus be
directly taken into account. In all cases, there will have to be an
"other productions" category, which could contain a number of
variables which will be defined by:

- A name.

The specification of the animal class or classes serving as a

basis for calculation.

The annual coefficients to be used (either a series,

corresponding to the value per head, or two series, one
corresponding to quantities per head and the other to unit
prices).

One could thus, for example, specify the production of work by the
non-breeding males aged three years or more, and the ~roduction of
manure by those of the animals which are kept in stalls, etc.

iii) Investments must be specified separately, according to, for example,

the modalities defined above in E.2.a, that is to say, specifying
for each investment a name, a unit, a series of unit prices and the
number of units per period, the d~ration of life, the percentage of
physical contingencies, the percentage of maintenance costs.
48

iv) The other cost elements are to be divided into two categories: those
which are determined in an exogenous way, which may be called fixed
costs, and those which depend on the number of animals in one or
several categories which may be considered as variable costs. The
fixed costs will be determined by a name and a series of values, or
possibly a series of prices and a series of quantities. The variable
costs will be defined by a series of unit prices and by the
indication of the animal class or classes to which these costs apply
(in other words, the cost is equal to the unit price multiplied by
the number of animals in the category concerned).

v) The above data, as well as the demographic model, will make it

possible to compute all costs and benefits linked to the improvement
and utilization of a herd, and therefore to calculate the net
balance, its present value and rate of return.

b. Stabilization of the Size of the Herd and Feed

It has been shown above (paragraph 2.d) that the size of the herd
should be limited by increasing sales of females, if necessary over the
values specified by the culling rates. The different ways of limiting the
size of the herd could be specified as follows:

i) The simplest is to specify directly the maximum number of breeding

females (either in the form of a single value, or better still, in
the form of a time series).

ii) One criterion could be the total size of the herd, expressed in
animal units, that is to say, giving a specific weight to each
animal class, this weight being a time series or a constant. This
size will be compared with the specification of maximum possible
number of animal units (corresponding, for example, to the maximum
carrying capacity of a ranch or a grazing region), and translated by
the programme into a need to reduce the number of breeding females
through sales.

iii) It could also be useful to include in such a programme the

specification of feed needs of the herd, and to use as a factor of
stabilization of the herd size a datum (exogenous) of feed
availability. The problem here is that feed needs are not expressed
simply in a single unit. It is necessary to simplify matters to
remain at a level compatible with the precision of the data. The
suggestions presented below have not - as far as the author knows
been used in an actual programme of the type of those described in
Chapter V (the development of a programme based on such
specifications is to take place during the year 1984). It will
therefore be necessary to verify through experience if they will
meet the realities of demand for this type of analysis. Nutritional
needs could perhaps be defined in two or three categories, which
could be, according to the user's preference, either categories of
concrete feeds (for example, fodder, concentrate), or categories of
nutrients (for example, energy, proteins and minerals). One of the
categories would be chosen as a factor limiting the size of the
herd, and its availability specified in an exogenous way, the model
calculating the needs for other categories (cotresponding to costs).
Depending on the case, a teed-nutrient correspondence would have to
be established:
 49

First case: The animals' needs are expressed (by age class and
by year) in fodder and concentrate per head (which is current
practice in some countries). The availability of fodder is
considered as a limiting factor. The model would stabilize the
size of the herd in the light of this availability (exogenous
variable), and would add to the costs of the project those of
the purchase of concentrate, depending on the quantities
calculated.

- Second case: The animals' needs are expressed in energy,

proteins and "minerals" (an abstract unit, for the sake of
simplicity, representing a typical mixture of the principal
minerals necessary in the area). There are then two
possibilities to express the availabilities: if they are
expressed in energies, proteins and minerals, the result is the
same as in the first case. If they are expressed in quantities
of feed, the programme should:

- Specify for each feed the nutritional value in each of the

nutrients (energy, proteins and minerals).

- Specify the quantities of one or more feeds being detemined

in an exogenous way, to serve as a constraint on the size of
the herd.

- Calculate the quantities of other feeds which will be

charged as costs to the model. The feeds will be taken into
account one after the other, in the order specified by the
user.

iv) Lastly, an option could usefully be envisaged whereby the·

calculations of needs and supplies of feed specified above would be
possible without this being used as a factor of control of the herd
size, but only as a means of semi-detailed calculation of the feed
costs, the size of the herd being controlled then by one of the
other mechanisms existing in the model. Such a model would make it
possible to study by successive approximations the possible balance
between the different factors of management of the herd, in a way
both simple and closer to the producer's decision making process
than, for example, a model (classic for this type of application) of
linear programming. Reference will be made to this subject in
Section C.2 of chapter VI, which describes programmes of this type
intended for use as agricultural extension tools in France.

G. Advantages and Limitations - Towards an Integrated System

1. Respective Advantages and Limitations of the Systems Proposed

Apart from the case of animal husbandry, which can only be treated
in a specific way in the context of models including mechanisms for
calculating a population, let us see what might be the advantages and
limitations of the three approaches proposed above: the table manipulation,
the detailed structuring, and the general structuring of data.
50

The obvious advantage of the first approach, the table manipulation,

is its great conceptual simplicity, which enables the user to understand
immediately the structure of his data and the nature of the calculations
made. This advantage is perfectly illustrated by the astonishing success
in other fields of application -· of the VISICALC programme and the many
similar programmes which followed it. This type of programme allows for
definition from a terminal of lines and columns to be shown in a table, and
also the calculations that can be performed with the data from two cells of
the table, or between lines, or between columns; the availability of such
programmes has greatly increased the use of micro-computers in small
enterprises (VISICALC is produced by the American firm VISICORP). The price
to be paid is the·need to specify in detail all the calculation operations,
which requires on the one hand a certain amount of work, and on the other,
some organization of the way in which variables are defined. Nevertheless,
the real use of programmes of this type has shown that it is quite possible
to construct models of several hundred, even several thousand variables,
thus considerably reducing the amount of work and improving the quality of
analysis in all cases, compared with traditional manual work.

It is also possible to imagine ways of lightening the work load by

constituting a library of typical models, which could be copied and adapted
to each particular case, as explained in the next chapter (MANIP programme).

Another advantage of this first approach is that, because of its

simplicity, it can be implemented by programmes of relatively small size,
and therefore can function on small machines (micro-computers). Of course,
such an advantage is only relative, first because computers of considerable
capacity can be found throughout the world (at least in the capital cities),
and secondly, because the capacity of micro- and mini-computers continues to
grow at a rapid pace.

A programme based on the second approach - the detailed structuring

of data - does not require the u~er to provide detailed specification of the
calculations to be made, ands this is a big advantage. The disadvantage is
that the flexibility and general application of such a programme depend
directly on the number of predefined data types, calculations and specific
tables pre-programmed. This will result in lengthy programmes, therefore
requiring a priori big systems, and very "ramified" from the point of view
of the user: in the case of a menu system, there will be a large number of
menu levels and many options or categories at each level, and in the case of
a command language, the user will need to know many keywords and commands.
Such a system will be particularly suitable in all cases (and there are
many) which can fit into a standard mould of analysis.

The third approach the generalized structuring of data

corresponds, as mentioned above, to the search for a synthesis between the
two previous approaches, associating a sufficiently general structuring of
data with predefined typical calculations. Such an approach has proved very
powerful, but practical use has shown that the abstract concepts of
commodity, activity and plan are confusing to the inexperienced user, who
has difficulty. in understanding the importance of the link between the way
these data structures should be defined and the results he hopes to obtain
from the model. On the contrary, after the experience of one or two
projects, the model becomes very simple to use because of the very limited
number of data types.
 51

2. Functional Specifications of an Integrated System of Programmes

The ideal tool for a user involves in a great variety of projects

would consist of the programmes corresponding to the three approaches
described above, and a dynamic model of the herd, and ideally, providing the
choice between a menu system and a command language. The problem apart
from the implications in terms of programming work and material resources -
is to specify the practical modalities of communication among such
programmes, that is to say, the exchange of data or results.

Two approaches may be envisaged, which will both be illustrated by

the programmes described in the following chapter:

a. The Approach of Local Variables and External Variables

Each module of the system (table manipulation, detailed or general

structuring of data, livestock model) is treated as an autonomous model, but
with the following possibilities:

- The data of the model can be specified normally they are then
"local" to the model - or specified by reference to an "external"
variable. An external variable is a data structure which can be used
- through the appropriate references - by any_module in the system.

- The results of the calculation of the model can remain internal to

the module, that is to say local, or can be transformed into
external variables, that is to say, be used to fuel the data base
common to all the modules.

The complete system will therefore be composed, on the one hand, of

a number of autonomous modules and, on the other hand, of a communal data
base with which each of the modules can communicate.

b. The Approach of Hierarchical Organization of Programmes

Each module is an independent programme, with its own files of data

and results, and communication among programmes is limited, in the following
way:

- Programmes of the data structuring type and livestock model type are
considered, because of their relative lack of flexibility, as useful
for making only that part of the analysis which could be qualified
as standard, composed of predefind data structure and predefined
calculations.

- Any analysis outside the above framework will be made by a programme

of the "table manipulation" type, which provides maximum
flexibility.

There is no reason, from this point of view, to allow the transfer

of information from the table manipulation programme to other
programmes. It is enough that programmes in the pre-handling table
stages have a function enabling them to transcribe the information
(in principle, all or part of their results) in a set of files
accessible to the handling table programme.
52

This second approach, less general than the first, has the advantage
of being simpler to use, and also simpler to implement. It is not certain,
in the present state of use of existing programmes, that the relative
limitations it has are really a constraint in current practice for preparing
projects.

The actual programmes corresponding to the different concepts

described in this chapter are presented in the next chapter.
 53

V. IMPLEMENTATION

The first part of this chapter describes a number of programmes

already in existence or being developed (of which several are being
developed by the author), classified according to the approaches presented
in the previous chapter, and whose functional specifications are compared
with the ideal model.

The bibliography in Annex 7 (Section I I. a) gives a list of the works

on programming and other handbooks. used by the author for his work. The
works of Wirth (ref. 26 and 31) and Welsh and McKeag (ref. 3 0) were
particularly useful.

The second part describes a number of problems related to the

development of the use of these programmes.

A. State of Development of Programmes

1. First Approach; Table Manipulation

a. CBDISPLAY (World Bank)

This programme was developed in 1979 by the Department of

Agriculture and Rural Development in the World Bank (ref. 38), and is
written in FORTRAN. It allows for the entry into the system of a number of
value series (variables) and the making of calculations of profitability
(the name CBDISPLAY means COST-BENEFIT-DISPLAY). It is an interactive
programme using a system of command language: when the user is connected -
through a terminal - to the system on which the programme is installed, he
gives the command, RUN * CBDISPLAY; he receives the prompt: "Put in the
number of periods (or run a GET command)". The GET command leads to data
retrieval from an existing file. The specification of a number of periods
(in principle, years; the maximum number is 50; a special version of the
programme accepts up to 200 periods) means that the user can work with a new
set of data. The programme, once it has run a command, displays the message:
"OK, what's next?" and waits for a new command. The programme works on data
organized in variables (called "streams" in the programme handbook). A
variable is composed of a name and a time series of values, for the number
of periods chosen.

The name of a variable is composed of a letter prefix, a point, and

a suffix composed of 1 to 10 characters (letters or figures). Four prefixes
are allowed, corresponding to predefined types of variables:

C cost variable
B benefits
N net benefits
W weighting coefficients

The programme enables variables to be put into the system, allows

for a certain number of variable manipulations to be made, and for rate of
return calculations and sensitivity analysis to be performed and produces
some graphs on a plotter. The maximum number of variables that can be
handled is 1,300. The data are put in by typing a command on the form: <name
of variable> = <list of values>.
54

Examples: C.1 = 25.7, 18.9, 12.7, 8.3, 5, 20 * 0

or C.1 25.7, 18.9, 12.7, 8.3, 5, 0

The symbol * is an indicator of repetition. If the list includes

less data than there are periods, the last value is repeated automatically.
The decimal sign is the full stop, and the comma is used as a separator.

An editor enables a typing error to be corrected before putting in a

line, without retyping the whole line, and a variable already defined can be
changed by the command:

<Name of the variable> (specification of period) = <list of values>

(The specification of period is a list of periods or intervals).

A variable may be erased (DELETE <name of variable>), the list of

variables printed (L[ST STREAMS), and all or part of the defined variables
printed (the command PRINT allows for specification of the list of variables
and the periods to be printed).

A data set can be stored for future use, at any time, with the
command SAVE UNDER <name of reference>.

The name of reference may include up to 64 characters, and is used

with the command GET to retrieve a data set previously stored.

It is possible, with CBDISPLAY, to manipulate the data to some

extent and calculate returns. The series of relevant commands can be stored
in the form of procedures, which can later be executed (commands CREATE and
PROCESS). Up to 63 procedures can be defined.

Possible manipulations of the variables are as follows:

- A variable can be created as a result of the combination of

variables, lagging operations, or arithmetical operations between
variables, as illustrated by the examples below:

COMPUTE N. TOT AL 1 = C. 1 , C. 4, C. 8, B. 1 , B. 5, B. 7, B. 9
C B.2 = B.1 * 1.1, B.3 * 1 .2 (multiplication by constants)
C B.2 = B.1 LAGGED 2 YEARS
CB.LATE = B.BASE LAG 4
CALCULATE B.3 = B.1 * W.1 + B.2 (constants not allowed)

- There is also a command which creates a group of new variables based

on an existing group:

UP (percent)
GENERATE <List of variables>
DOWN k (percent)
LAGGED (years)
The new variables will automatically be created with the name of the
former ones, plus the suffix U, Dor Land a number of two digits
indicating the change (the variable B.1 reduced by 20 percent thus
becomes B.1D20).

- Calculations of present values (PV) and rate of return (RR) are done
with the aid of the following commands:
 55

ace = <discount rate> which fixes the rate (opportunity cost of

capital)
PRINT PV <list of variables> <list of rates>
PRINT IRR <list of variables>
The parameters are optional: the last value used in a previous
command is utilized by default.

- Sensitivity analysis: three commands are available:

- The command SWITCHING VALUES (or SWITCH) calculates for a list

of variables, and one or more discount rates, the switching
values as defined in Chapters III (Section A.2) and IV (Section
C. 2. c).

- The command GROUPED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS tests the sensitivity

of a project or a project component, defined as the sum of a
number of variables, to changes (in percentage) of components.
The test can cover either present value or rate of return.
Example:

GROUPED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS B.1, B.2, C.1, C.2, C.3, with B.2
DOWN 10 PERCENT, WITH C. 1 UP 20 PERCENT C.2 UP 10 PERCENT or
possibly:

GROUPED B.1, B.2, C.1, C.2, C.3 W B.2 - 10, W C.1 + 20 C.2 + 10

Each WITH corresponds to a sensitivity analysis.

- The command PAIRED leads to a sensitivity analysis between a

pair of variables, one representing costs (incremental), and
the other benefits (incremental) of a project, as in the
example below:
PAIRED IRR B.1

will give the following result on the variables B.1 and C.1
(for any benefit variable there must necessarily be a
corresponding cost variable already existing, with the same
suffix):
Ol<, \/hat's next?
PAIRED SENSITIVITY AHALYSIS B.l,C.I

PRESENT VALUES OF NET STREAMS AT A DISCOUNT RATE OF I 2. O:t

B. l UP IO :t UP 2 O:t UP 5 O:t DOWN I O:t DD\.IN 2 0:t DOWN 5 0:t LAG 1 YEAR LAG 2 YEARS LAG ) YEARS

C. I 38612.5 48758.5 58904.4 89)42.2 28t,66.6 18320.7 -12117.1 266)1.2 159)).6 6)82.1
UP 10:t 32327.9 42473.8 52619.7 8)057.5 2 2 l 8 I. 9 120)6.0 -18401.8 2034 6. 5 9648.9 9 7. 4
UP 2 0:t 2604).2 )6189. J 46335.0 76772. B 15897.) 5751.) -24686.4 14061.8 ))64.2 -6187.2
UP 50 % 7189.2 17335.l 27481.0 57918.8 -2956.8 -1)102.7 -43540.5 -4792.2 -15489.8 -25or.i.2
DOWN IOI 44897. 2 55043.l 65169.l 95626.8 34751.3 24605.J -5832.4 32915.9 22218.2 12666.8
DOWN 20% 5ll81.9 61327.8 71473.7 101911.5 410)5.9 )0890.0 45 2. 2 39200.S 28502. 9 1895!.5
DOWN 50% 700)5.9 80181. 8 90)27.7 120765.5 59890.0 '49744.0 19)06.) 58054.6 47356,9 )7805.5
LAG l YEAR )347).) 22775,7 LJ224.2
LAG 2 YEARS 2eaa4.1 19))).)
LAG ) YEARS 24787.7

INTERNAL RATES OF RETURN OF Nf.T STREAMS

---------------------------------------
D. I UP I 0:t UP 2 O:t UP 5 O:t DOWN I O:t DOWN 20% DOWN 50:t LAG l YEAR LAG 2 YEARS LAG J YEARS

C. I 2 I. 251 2J . 45 I 25.590 )1.728 I 8. 9 77 I 6. 61 0 8. 5 7 5 I 7. 6 8 2 I 5. I 5 4 I 3. 2 0)

UP IO I I 9. I 8 7 21.251 2J.25J 28.98) 17.049 ! 4. 81 5 7. 14 8 l 6. 0 6) I). 7 9 7 I 2. 0 I 7
UP 2 OI I 7• 4 l l I 9. 3 6 2 21.251 26.639 l 5. J 8 4 1).259 5. 8 8 6 l 4 • 6 t, 4 12.592 l O. 9 5 7
ti P 5 0 I l). 2 5 9 I 4. 9 6 7 I 6. 61 0 21.251 11.468 9. 57) 2. 7 8 5 11.227 9.6)8 8. J2 2
[)011 N IO I 23. 691 26.058 28.364 34.998 21.251 18. 7 I 9 IO. 2 I B I 9. 5 5 5 I 6. 70 4 I 4 • 54 5
0(1\H/ 20% 26.639 2 9. 2 15 31.728 JB.975 2).990 21.251 I 2. I 5 l 2 I . 76J I 8. 5 0 6 I 6. 0 8 8
001/N 50% 41.310 44.976 48.565 5 8. 94 l )7.557 33.701 21.251 32,002 2 6. 5 l 9 22. 767
LA(; I YEAR 21.175 I 7. 5 7 0 !S.006
LAG 2 YEARS 21.081 . l 7. 4) 4
LAG ) YEARS 20.964

Ok., What's next7

STOP

*** GOOD RYE, HAVE A NICE DAY.

 57

- Graphic functions: Two are available. One plots the present value of
a list of variables in accordance with the discount rate (command
PLOT). The other plots, for a pair of variables representing, one
the costs and the other the benefits of a project, the locus of
combined changes (in percentage) of each of the two variables which
result in a zero value of the present value of the project (for a
given discount rate). The graph compares the results with a "window"
corresponding to the maximum increase of costs and to the maximum
reduction of benefits estimated possible by the analyst. The command
LOCUS specifies this function, of which one example is provided
below. Several additional commands lead to specification of the
graph scale, title, etc.

The CBDISPLAY programme has been the first interactive project

analysis programme to be widely used within the World Bank. The functions of
data handling are too limited to do much more than the analysis of
profitability which comes towards the end of the calculation of models, but
CBDISPLAY is the immediate precursor of the COMPASS system, described below,
in which it is incorporated.
 MRLRYSIR
NORTHWEST SELRNGOR INTEGRRTEO RGRICULTURRL DEVELOPMENT PRDJE

L.:
u 10
e:::
u_;
L. 0 I I l ,, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1,1~1
0 4 9 12 15 20. 24 25 32 35
PERCENTRGE FRLL IN B~NEFITS

.-r.~,,n
L ::..~::..1,~
: M~XIML'M [XrfCTE.D r r. LL IN BE~Ef r iS I~ :S.8%
:: MRX I MUM EXPECTED RISE IN COSTS ls 30.0%

:: Th/\CE T YI El.C is 0 ,0%

8[N~F I T ~;~ I T(H ! t~0 PQjNT IS -3'),i%
cosr ::.;~~: rc 1 '.: ~,:. r~:.\IT IS c::.
J ' I
' •.
.,. '•
 59

b. MANIP (FAO)

A first version of this programme, called POMP (Project Data

Manipulation Package), was developed by the author in the FAO Investment
Centre in 1979, on a Hewlett-Packard office computer (model HP9845B), using
a very powerful BASIC language, which was, however, difficult to transpose
to other systems. A new version was written in Pascal in 1981. (1) The
technical specifications of the information system used (an ND-100 Norsk
Data mini-computer) and of the Pascal compiler are given in Annex 1. The
Users' Guide is reproduced in Annex 2. Two versions for IBM computer (VM/CMS
system) are also available. A programme derived from the POMP programme has
also been developed - under the name MANIP - by the European Investment Bank
(Luxembourg), in the language APL.

The functions of MANIP are similar to those of the CBDISPLAY

programme described above, that is to say:

- Putting into store a number of variables (up to 1,500), a variable

being defined by a name (up to 25 characters including spaces), and
a series of values on a predefined number of years (maximum 50, plus
year zero).

- Carrying out a number of operations with these viriables, with the

possibility of correction and table printing.

There are three major differences between MANIP and CBDISPLAY:

- MANIP is an interactive programme based on a menu system and

messages displayed on the terminal screen, whereas CBDISPLAY is a
programme based on a command language (a discussion of approaches is
presented in Chapter IV, Section B).

- The MANIP variables include a year zero to represent a situation

without project when it is constant. There is only one type of
variable, whereas there are four in CBDISPLAY.

- There are many more calculation functions in MANIP.

The general organization of the programme (from the user's point of

view) is set out below, and also indications on each of the main functions
available:

(il General Organization

The programme is organized in five modules, corresponding to the

available functions, which are:

- Initial module: used once - and once only - at the beginning of each
session, this module either creates a new data set, by specifying
the name of the project, the name of the data set, the currency, the
duration of the project, and possibly a number of variables or

(1) Initial transposition was done by B. Samuelsson, finalization and later

developments by the author.
60

provides access to a data set created at a previous session. A data

set uses several files (six), whose names are formed automatically
by the programme, based on a generic name (from 1 to 14 characters)
given by the user.

- The calculation module (data processing).

- The printing module (data listing).

- The correction module (data editing).

- A function for printing - on the screen or on paper - the list of

variables defined in a data set, with their code number. This code
(and not the name) will be used as reference to the variables
throughout the programme.

Once the initial module has been executed, the principal menu of the
programme is displayed, allowing the user to select and execute any one of
the other four modules, in any order and as often as necessary, until
selection (in the same principal menu) of the end of session
" " option is
made.

(ii) Calculation Module

With this module a number of operations can be made on the

variables, starting from the menu of available functions. Before reaching
the menu of calculation functions, an initial menu enables the user to
select the mode of operation, either manual or programmed. The options are:

Code :: Manual operation

Code = 2 Defining a sequence of operations (procedure)
Code 3 Listing a predefined sequence of operations
Code = 4 Editing a predefined sequence of operations
Code :: 5 Running a predefined sequence of operations
Code = 6 Printing the list of predefined sequences
Code :: 7 End of processing

A sequence may include up to 50 operations. But an operation can

consist in a call to another predefined sequence; it is thus possible to
structure operations in logical blocks, and to execute many of them
automatically (whatever the number of sequences, there is in the present
version of the programme a maximum limit of 1,000 operations that can be
defined in a data set).

There are 23 functions available. They are the following:

 61

1. Display/print X 11. AX/Y + B

2. Rate of return on X 12. AX + BY t C
3. I ncremen ta l values over year zero 1 3. I f X>O, AX t BY + C
4. Cumulative values of X 1 4 . If X<O, AX + BY + C
5. Add X over A years 15. I f X and Y>=O, AX t BY t C
6. Advance X by A years 16. Carry over if AX + BY t C<O
7. Delay X by A years 17. Depreciation on X
8. Interest on overdraft 1B. Debt service on X
9. AX + B 19. Phasing a block of variables
10. AXY + B 20. Balance and switching values
21. Read from/write to another data set
22. Run a predefined sequence of operations
23. Print a table using a predefined format
24. End of processing

Host of the above-mentioned functions correspond to those described

in detail in Chapter IV, Section C.2. In the above menu, X and Y correspond
to code numbers of variables, and A, Band C to parameters. When a function
is selected, the programme calls the necessary data. It also requests for
the variable where the results should be stored. If the code number
specified corresponds to a variable not yet defined, the user must enter the
name of the new variable.

The comments below complete the description of Chapter IV.

- Function 1: displays the values of a variable without having to use

the module for printing the table; it will, for example, be used as
the last operation in a calculation sequence of cash-flow
projections for a farm model, to see the final result of the
calculations before deciding to print the tables or modify the data
to test other values.

- Function 2: The calculation of the rate of return is made

automatically on incremental values of the variable compared with
year zero.

- Functions 3-7. 9-12 and 19: These functions can be specified in one
operation to apply on blocks of variables, which, through a
judicious organization, leads to a reduction in the number of
operations to be specified. If, for example, it is intended to
construct a model containing five crops, it will be desirable to
introduce the five yields and the five variables containing the
areas in consecutive variables. If the yields are in variables 1 to
5 and the areas in variables 6 to 10, one running of function 10
(with X=1, Y=6, A=1, B=O, on a block of 5) will make it possible to
calculate the production of each crop (calculation using the annual
mode).

- Function 17: Calculates only constant depreciation.

- Function 18: Debt service. The calculation of the interest component

and the outstanding amount (at year end, after payment of the
corresponding annual instalment) is optional. The loans are assumed
to be disbursed at the beginning of the year and reimbursed at the
end of the year.

- Function 20: It is possible to specify a list containing up to 50

variables in one operation. This is therefore the maximum of detail
for the calculation of switching values.
62

Function ~1: This function enables the user to transfer a complete

block of variables (names and values) from one data set to another.
rn the destination data set, the copied variables can be either
inserted from a determined position, or copied after the last
defined variable. This function means that a model can also if
necessary - be shared among several sets of files.

- Function 22: This function does not appear on the menu for manual
operations, but can be used to call a predefined sequence of
operations from another sequence. If the call is made in the middle
of the first sequence, the second is executed, then the control
comes back to the original sequence, which then continues.

- Function 23: In the manual mode, this function is not shown on the
menu. It allows for the printing of tables corresponding, for
example, to the results of calculations, to be included in a
sequence.

- Function 24: This function returns control to the previous menu, and
also terminates the list of operations in a sequence currently being
definied.

The graphic function corresponding to the command LOCUS of the

.t::l..o.1g_:
programme CBOISPLAY, which figures in the first version of MANIP {POMP
programme) has not been maintained in the later versions, since experience
has shown that it was not used.

(iii) Printing_Jiodule

It is possible to produce tables from a data set by selecting the

variables and the years to be printed in a given table, which also receives
a title and optionally a number. An option also enables the user to
calculate and include the total by lines, corresponding for each variable to
the interval of the years printed (that is, if the years printed are 1, 2, 3
and 10, the total will correspond to all the years from 1 to 10). When all
the variables are constant for several consecutive years in the life of a
project, the programme will print only one column (example: years 15-20;
this only happens if all the years are requested).

Apart from the option allowing the user, without other

specification, to print the whole data set, the format of a table must first
of all be defined. This definition of a table can itself be printed, and
also corrected, and of course run, as many times as necessary.

The programme allows for selection of the type of printout desired:

anything for printout tables, results of certain functions of the
calculation module, list of variables, definition of tables, definition of
sequence of operations - can be directed by the user either to the terminal
screen or to a printer, or to a fdle on magnetic disk on the system.

The format of the tables (that is, the number of columns per line)
will be decided by the programme according to the values of the variables to
be printed, the number of decimal digits specified by the user, and the
output unit chosen: 80 characters per line for the screen, 132 or 227
depending on the printer. When a disc file is used, it ~an be read later by
the text-processing software available on the same system, which means it
can be handled and printed like any other text (for example, inserting sub-
titles or replacing decimal points by commas for a report in French or
 63

Spanish). A table thus produced can also be easily inserted into the text of
a report typed using the system.

(iv) Correction Module

This module is for changing the titles of a data set, the name or
the values of a variable, and for adding or deleting variables.

To add variables, the user has the same functions available as for
the definition of variables in the initial module, which correspond to the
different methods of data generation set out in Chapter IV, Section C.2.e,
that it is to say, automatic repetition, cyclical repetition, linear or
sigmoid interpolation, use of percentages, exponential variation and
definition by reference to another variable.

When one variable is deleted, the others are not renumbered (unlike
what happens with the POMP version). The code number of the variables does
not change, the existing definitions of tables and sequences of operation
remain valid. In practice, the possibility of deleting variables from a data
set is of very limited interest, and the absence of this function from the
programme (which would allow for a number of simplifications in the
programming) would not really be a limitation for the user.

(v) Use of Predefined Sequences or Formats

When the user requests the definition of a sequence of operations or

the format of a table, he must choose between two options:

- new definition;

- copying an existing definition.

An existing definition can be copied either from the same data set,
or from another one. When such a definition is copied, all the code numbers
of the variables can be modified by adding to them - or taking away a
constant factor, called displacement of address. This mechanism allows for
the copying of a definition by adjusting it automatically to a new block of
variables (in which the variables must of course have been created in the
right order). It will, however, be noted that only the code numbers of the
variables are changed. If a sequence of operations includes calls to other
sequences or references of output tables, these operations are not changed
and will perhaps need to be corrected "manually".

The above mechanism considerably reduces the work required in the

detailed specification of operations of calculating a project. It can be
used in two ways:

- It is possible to constitute a library of "standard files"

corresponding to typical applications; for any given application, a
set of files contains variables, with nil values, and definitions of
sequences and tables. An example of this technique is shown in
Appendix 3 of Annex 2.

- When a project composed of several ·farm models is studied, the types

of analysis and presentation desired will in general be the same for
all the models. The variables, the sequences of operations and the
tables corresponding to one model can be defined and copied as often
as necessary to construct the next models. The nine models shown in
64

the credit project mentioned (ref. 48) were prepared in this way.

(vi) Example of Use

The following example - shown in detail in Annex 4 - shows how MANIP

can be used to construct a model.

Let us suppose that the following information is available for a

farm model (in the form of "variables", that is to say, series of annual
data):
1) Total value of production
2) Other income
3) Investments
4) Cost of production less labour
5) Cost of wage-earning labour force
6) Value of family labour force
7) Household consumption.

The intention is to study the methods of financing this farm by

long-term credit to finance the investments, and short-term credit to
finance production costs (less labour force and wage-earning labour force).

The lines of a summary table may be constructed step by step in the

following way:

1) Add the variables 1 and 2 (operation 12 in the menu, with X = 1, Y =

2, A = 1, B = 1, C = 0) to create the variable 8 = total income.

2) Using operation 12 or operation 20 (balance), add the variables 4

(costs of production) and 5 (wage-earning labour force), applying to
each of them a weighting coefficient corresponding to the
calculation of interest on a short-term loan: a rate of 15l per
annum and a loan of six months will be translated by, for example, a
coefficient of 0.075. Operation 20, by which more than two variables
(up to 50) can be added together, is preferable here, since it will
be easier to correct the model by adding other variables or changing
the coefficients. Result: variable 9 = interest on seasonal credit.

3) Using operation 20, the sum of the variables 3, 4, 5 and 6 can be

calculated to create the variable 10, or total expenditure (before
financing).

4) The difference between variables 8 (total income) and 10 I total

expenditure) is calculated (operation 12, AX t BY t C, with X = 8, Y
= 10, A = 1, B = -1, C = O), to give the variable 11 : net benefit
before financing.

5) And so on ...

The complete example presented in Annex 4 (in which the variables do

not have the same code numbers, since they were created in a different
order) then shows how the user may choose to calculate the amount of a long-
term loan as a percentage of investment costs, the difference being financed
by a contribution by the farmer; how the debt service can be calculated in
constant terms; how to apply to it a deflation factor (to reflect the
"actual" weight of the reimbursements in a model expressed in a constant
monetary unit); and how the benefit after financing is adjusted by the
 65

values of household consumption and family work to obtain a projection of

monetary income.

c. Pico - MANIP: Programmes on Pocket Computers

In view of the growing power of programmable calculators, it is

possible to envisage the development of computing programmes, certainly with
lower performance than those mentioned above, but able to render meaningful
services to teams working in the field, far from the facilities available at
their organizations headquarters.

From the MANIP programme, which is very modular, essential functions

can be extracted which can be put into operation on such machines.

By doing this, the author developed a set of four programmes

functioning with a Hewlett-Packard calculator of the HP 41 CV type, equipped
with a reader of magnetic cards and a printer. The programmes - presented in
detail in Annex 3 - work on a data structure identical to MANIP: the
variable. For obvious reasons of memory capacity, the names of the variables
are limited to six characters. Beyond the life of the project, it is
necessary to specify the "maximum period of development", that is to say,
the number of years during which the data continue to change. Only these
years will be stored in th~ machine. A variable can be either a data series
supplied to a programme, or a series of results. The variables can be stored
on magnetic cards, which allows them to be passed from one programme to
another. It would be possible, by modifying th~ programmes slightly, to use
also the digital recorder with cassettes now available for this calculator.

The programmes are organized, as with MAN[P, according to a system

of menus and questions. The main menu for each programme is based on the
selection of keyboard strokes to which the corresponding functions are
allocated, and each module of the programme follows in a consenquential way
with a system of questions and answers.

The four programmes composing the system are as follows:

(i) ROR-PV (for "rate of return - present values")

The programme enables the user, after having specified the period of
analysis, the maximum period of development, and the discount rate:

To enter, one after the other, a number of variables, whether using

the keyboard or from magnetic cards. The variable which has just
been entered can be multiplied by a constant, visualized or printed,
corrected, and stored on magnetic card.

- On the number of variables entered, to calculate and print (or to

display on the screen):

- The balance (algebraic sum of the variables), which can be

stored on magnetic card.

- The incremental balance (compared with year zero).

- The rate of return of the incremental balance.

- For each variable, for the balance and for the projection of
the balance in year zero (situation without project), the
present values and the switching values (defined in Chapter IV,
66

Section C. 2. c).

- To correct the data (change to be made to such and such a variable

in such and such a year), so as to make the above calculations all
over again.

For a maximum development period of 10 years, the maximum number of

variables is 40. The number drops to 30 if the development period is longer
than 20 years.

(ii) PHASE

This programme allows phasing mode calculation to be performed as

described in Chapter IV, Section C.2.b. It works on one unit variable, for
which two data series must be specified: with and without project. The
period of analysis is limited to 20 years (plus year zero), and the phasing
variable is limited to ten years (which in practice is more than enough).

(iii) DEBT

This programme calculates the service of a specific loan in a

variable, according to the description in Chapter IV, Section C.2.d. (the
only difference being that the stored values in the variable "loans" are
automatically treated as a single loan; a test prevents the specification of
a grace period, which would be translated by a first reimbursement before
the end of the disbursements).

(iv) TS (Time Seriesl

This programme can generate variables, which will later be

transferred to other programmes using magnetic cards, depending on the
functions of cyclical repetition, linear or sigmoid interpolation,
exponential growth, and use of percentages (see Chapter IV, Section C.2.e).

2. Second Approach: Detailed structuring of Data

a. Predecessors

The detailed structuring of data being the most immediate approach

(it consists in transcribing what the users do by hand in a programme), the
first programmes developed for agricultural project analysis - both at the
World Bank and in the FAO Investment Centre - followed this approach. These
different programmes, now practically abandoned, were a major contribution
to the development of the concepts set out in the previous chapter.

The APAS (Agricultural Projects Appraisal System) programme was

developed by the World Bank in 1977-1978. It was based on a hierarchical
structure (crops models project), but had a number of major
disadvantages, as a result of which it was used very little. The main
characteristic of the programme was that it functioned by batch processing,
with the aid of punch cards. The project analyst had to transcribe his data
on forms, observing a restrictive codification, send these forms to the
punching centre, retrieve the punched cards, and submit them to the
calculating centre; the results were only available after a fairly long
time, say several hours. The programme had in fact been written by
"traditional" programmers, with insufficient relations with future users.
This was evident even in the specifications of the programme: the
 67

calculating mechanism of lagged series (phasing) did not figure in the

initial version. As it was added later - at the express request of users
the result was a method of data specification, for this calculation,
particularly impractical and likely to lead to errors. (Since this
experience, programmes for project analysis have been planned in the World
Bank by users, and no longer by the computer centre I).

In the FAO Investment Centre, two programmes may be mentioned:

- The ROR-Cash-flow programme (1) was the first one available.

Although it is very limited in its possibilities, it was and still
is very popular, since it meets a specific demand. The first part of
the programme enables three lines of data, corresponding to
investme~ts, operating costs and revenues of a project, to be
entered. The data can be printed and corrected; the situation
without project is represented by the year zero, and it is possible
to specify a certain evolution in this situation over a definite
number of years (growth or reduction at a certain rate). The
programme can calculate present value and rate of return of the
project, and can make a number of sensitivity analyses; an example
is given in Annex 2 (Appendix 3, Table Annex 4). The second part
enables the user to specify, after the three lines of data
mentioned, several credit operations, and also lines of other costs
or benefits, and to produce a standardized table of cash-flow
projections (for farm models).

- The FARMOD programme (2) enabled the user to specify a list of crops
and a list of inputs, to define for each crop - for each year - · the
yield and consumption of each input, to define a cropping pattern,
and other costs and benefits not proportionate to the crops, and to
calculate total costs and benefits of the model (in quantity or
value). The programme - interactive and commanded by a menu system -
had the major defect of excessive rigidity: the list of inputs and
crops, once specified, could no longer be changed; and initial data
had to be entered altogether, without interruption, which proved to
be a considerable disadvantage in practice. Also, the programme was
conceived to treat one model only (project or farm model), not
allowing for the specification of several models which could then be
aggregated. The programme is no longer used.

The above two programmes (ROR-Cash-flow and FARMOO) were written in

HP-Basic, for the desk top computer HP-9845B.

b. The COMPASS System (World Bank)

The Computerized Project Analysis Support System - COMPASS - is a

system'of programmes developed since 1980 by the World Bank, under the
guidance of G. Temple. The system is based on a "core", which is to some
extent an improved version of CBOISPLAY, with the addition of a number of
specialized modules, some of which are still being developed.

(1) The return analysis part was done by the author, the cash-flow
projections part by F. Vita.

(2) Developed by F. Vita, with the author's participation in development of

specifications.
68

The system therefore aims to become in due course an integrated

system comparable to that proposed in Chapter IV, Section G.2, with the
major restriction that, until now, the system has been conceived exclusively
around a command language and the menu approach has not been used.

Three parts of the system are now operational:

- The "core", which controls the files and the terminals (ref. 41) and
by which operations of the "table manipulation" type can be carried
out (see description of CBDISPLAY), with most of the functions
available in the MANIP programme (phasing and debt service in
particular).

- The COSTAB module (ref. 40), in service since 1981 in the World
Bank, prepares highly detailed tables of project costs, based on
elements defined by their unit cost, their quantities, and the
category to which they belong. The tables produced follow the
standardized format which the World Bank wants to bring into general
use in its appraisal reports.

- The FARMOD (FARM MODEL PROCESSOR - ref. 39) module, to which the
finishing touches were being put at the beginning of 1984, allows
the user to define crops, to combine them in farm models, and to
combine the latter in project components, or sub-areas, and at
project level. It puts into practice the concepts set out in Chapter
IV, Section D, making them even more flexible: The "crop" and "farm"
levels can change their names (activity and enterprise) to define
more general actions (similar to the activities and plans of the
generalized model).

In the case of both COSTAB and FARMOD, the user defines, with the
aid of the editor which forms part of the system, a procedure that will
later be treated by the appropriate module. The procedure contains
instructions concerning the construction of the model, and local data; it
can also refer to external data, that is to say, common to the whole COMPASS
system, in the context, of course, of a specific data set. (1) In the same
way it is possible, in the procedure, to specify that certain results must
be transferred to COMPASS, to be used later by other modules.

The treatment of a procedure by the relevant processor is done in

two phases:

- A compilation phase, which analyses the text of the procedure to

detect errors, and then, if there are no errors, translates the
procedure into an intermediate code.

A running phase, which runs the procedure in intermediate code and

produces the requested reports; a compiled procedure can of course
be re-run without further compilation. The use of external variables
is a means of changing some data of the model without the need to
recompile the relevant procedure.

(1) See Chapter IV, Section G.2, concepts of local and external variables.
 69

There is an instruction (READ FROM) which leads to the combination

of an existing procedure with a new procedure. It is therefore possible to
construct the models in stages which results in a complete project, in the
form of procedures which call each other: for example, a procedure for
prices, one for each crop model, one for each farm model, etc.

The most serious disadvantage of COMPASS - and it remains to be

seen whether in practice it will really prevent expansion of its use is
that it is a very large programme (more than 100,000 lines of code in
FORTRAN, excluding the comments and instructions for use, for COMPASS,
COSTAB and FARMOD), which therefore needs powerful systems, and of which the
transfer from one system to another, and then the maintenance, are likely to
be difficult.

As well as the modules mentioned above, at least two others are

envisaged for the future, one for financial analyses (FINAL) and one for
animal husbandry projects (based on a dynamic herd model).

3. Third Approach: General Structuring of Data

a. The MADS Programme (OECD)

In the context of Technical Cooperation programmes of OECD

(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Paris), a joint
activity covering the use of computers in agriculture was carried out by
several European countries in 1978, following the development by the same
organization of a handbook on irrigation project analysis. The proposed
programme (1) known as MADS (Multipurpose Agricultural Data System), was
based on the concepts of commodity, activity and plan (as set out in Chapter
IV, Section E.2.a. - ref. 42).

Compared with the concepts described in Chapter IV, which were

developed from the MADS programme, the most marked differences are as
follows:

The programme was conceived to be used for batch processing; the

user interface is done by punch cards.

- The types of data are limited to the commodity (which can be simple
or composite), the activity and the plan. A fourth type, called
resource, is (like the composite commodity) a linear combination of
commodities. Whereas the composite commodity is intended to reduce
the number of coefficients to be written into the definition of an
activity, the resource is used to define an aggregate of commodities
which is considered as a whole, and on which it is desired that a
number of calculations should be made. The notion of resource in
fact proved difficult to understand and gave rise to many
discussions within the OECD working party (at meetings at which the
author was present), the more so since use of a composite commodity
as component in the definition of a resource is not equivalent to
the use of components of this commodity.

(1) The programme was conceived by J.M. Boussard, working in INRA (National
Institute for Agricultural Research, Paris) as an OECD consultant.
70

- Time is treated in an extremely detailed and essentially static way,

both on the level of specification of data and on that of format of
output tables. The consumptions and productions of commodities by an
activity are in fact defined in a static way (a given situation and
not a time series of values), but specifying by dates (therefore to
the nearest day) the period during which this production or this
consumption occurs. The programme distinguishes between annual
activities, for which production or consumption coefficients are
assumed constant, and perennial activities, which define the
ensemble of production and consumption which can be different from
one year to another (example: cultivation of fruit trees); perennial
activities are divided into "sections" and each is defined in a way
similar to an annual activity. In the same way, at the level of
definition of plans, the way in which variations in the plan
composition during its duration must be specified is very
cumbersome. The components of a plan (activities or other plans)
enter into a plan in a given year, with a given level and a given
age. A component remains in the plan with this level, either until
the end of the plan, or until the year when this same component
again comes into the plan at a different level; in other words, the
component in the plan must be specified as often as its level
changes.

- On the level of the data processing implementation, the programme

has been conceived - because the specifications were prepared at a
time when available systems did not have the capacities they have
today to function with a very limited central memory capacity.
This is reflected in an excessive complexity of implementation,
using a great many magnetic disc files (9 permanent files and 17
temporary files). The result is that processing becomes extremely
expensive if the work is on a large system, and excessively slow if
it is on a small system without any hard disc. The system is in fact
based on the creation of a master file containing the data, and
every command (for a table corresponding to determined calculations)
involves a complete exploration of the data base to run the relevant
calculations.

The MADS project was abandoned before the programme had been
completely developed. The major merit of the operation has been, as already
mentioned, the development of fundamental concepts of commodity, activity
and plan, which were taken up again in the programmes presented below (of
which some retain, for this reason, the original name of MADS).

b. The MADS II Programme (FAO)

This programme was developed jointly by the Investment Centre and

the Development Policy Studies and Training Service (ESPT), FAD, (1) using
the BASIC language of an HP-98458 computer (see specifications in Annex 1).
The programme borrows from the above-mentioned MADS programme the
fundamental concepts of commodity, activity and plan, but has essential
differences compared with MADS (ref. 43):

(1) Specifications developed by the author and by Carlo Cappi. Initial

programme of the calculation and output tables by C. Cappi, Input and
correction of data by F. Vita. Finalization by the author.
 71

- The programme is entirely interactive, using a menu system based on

the keyboard and screen of the (monostation) computer used.

- The basic structure of the data over time is the annual time series.
Year zero is included, and could be used to represent the situation
without project if the latter could be considered constant (bearing
in mind that this assumes that not only the technical coefficients
but also the prices should be projected as constant). A more
detailed analysis could also be specified for a limited number of
commodities, for which consumption or production could be specified
by sub-periods in the year (the sub-periods, maximum 24, are defined
in the same unique way for all the commodities).

- The notion of annual activity and perennial activity was abandoned;

all activities are treated in the same way; the mode of calculation
corresponding to the nature of the activity (annual or phasing) is
specified when the plans are defined.

- The type investment has been introduced.

- The plans are of three types: plan of activities, plan of

investments, or plan of plans.

- The type resource has been abandoned. When a plan is called, a list
of standard calculations is made, and the user selects the results
he wants printed (the type resource, in MADS, was used to specify
the breakdown of the results of a calculation requested by specific
commands).

The calculations made automatically by the programme for a given

plan are the following:

- Consumption, production and balance of each commodity. If the plan

includes investments, calculation of investments, their maintenance
cost, their replacement and the provision cost for physical
contingencies.

The results are in quantity and in value; they could be in total

values or in incremental values in relation to year zero.

- If certain commodities have been specified by sub-periods, the

programme calculates the quantities produced and/or consumed per
annum, per sub-period, and the annual totals of surpluses and
deficits: the deficit in any given year is the sum of the
production/consumption balances for the sub-periods when this
balance is negative, and similarly the surplus is the sum of
positive balances. For example, if the product is family work, the
annual deficit represents the demand for family labour not employed
in a slack period.

- The rate of return of a plan can, at will, be calculated on the

overall balance (on incremental values compared with year zero).

The structure of results is basically the same as that of the

variables 1n the MANIP programme described above, that is to say, annual
time series of values, with a name.
72

The MADS II programme includes a module with which it is possible,

when the calculations of a plan have been made, to put all or part of the
results into data files compatible with the PDMP programme (the first
version of MANIP, on the same computer as the MADS II programme) which means
that downstream of the programme, all the calculations which are not
included in MADS II, like, for example, the sensitivity analysis by
calculation of switching values, can be performed using PDMP.

The programme is organized, from the user's point of view, in seven

modules:

START: Opens a session, either for new data, or by reading

data already stored. The data can come from a file
named by the user(created by the STORE module below),
or can be found in the working files associated with
the programme (in the first case, the data are copied
in the working files).

INPUT: Defines new components of the data base (commodities,

activities, investments, plans), and defines
sub-periods and corresponding commodities.

EDIT: Modifies the values of already defined components. The

input of time series has functions of automatic
repetition when the value remains constant, of linear
interpolation and exponential growth. It is not
possible to suppress a component of the data base,
since the programme has no internal arrangement that
can, for example, check that the commodity to be
suppressed has also been used to define an activity
and to suppress it automatically from the definition
of that activity.

PRINTOUT: Prints the data base, completely or selectively, and

also a catalogue of the data structure showing the list
of components and certain indicators (commodity
consumed or produced, activity calculated annually or
with phasing in a plan, etc.).

STORE: Transfers the entire data base - as at that moment -

scattered in working files, to a permanent file whose
name is chosen by the user.

CALCULATION: Makes all the standard calculations on the chosen plan,

and if required, prints the results and/or transfers
some of them to a file allowing for "i la carte"
calculations (using the PDMP programme).

DATA MANIPULATION: Accesses data lines created by the preceding model, to

effect all the operations described in A.1 .b
(MANIP-PDMP programme).

The programme has limitations as regards the size of the data base
that can be manipulated. If the duration of the project (period of analysis)
is 20 years, the limits are:

- 44 commodities;
 73

- 20 investments;

- 20 components in a plan, and 20 commodities in an activity;

- 10 commodities specifiable per sub-period (12 sub-periods).

Despite these limitations, and the absence of some components that

could usefully form part of such a programme (transfer activities, credit
operations), the programme has proved very powerful, provided the user has
completely assimilated the concepts of commodity, activity and plan, and
properly understood the direct relation between the definition of these
project components and the precise nature of the calculations to be made and
the result tables.

c. The DASI Programme (FAO)

This programme (whose name is an abbreviated form of "Data Analysis

and Simulation Programme") was developed by the Development Policy Studies
and Training Service (ESPT) in FAO. (1) This is a programme derived from
MADS rr, described above, written in FORTRAN and of which two versions
exist, one for the IBM 370 computer, and the other for the Apple II micro-
computer. DASI is in fact composed of seven separate programmes,
corresponding to the logical organization of the programme, which are called
by name by the user (see below, and ref. 44).

The major differences between MADS II and DASI are as follows:

- The data structures are the same: commodities, activities,

investments, plans. The sub-periods within the year have been
suppressed; it is enough, where necessary, to define a commodity as
often as sub-periods are required (example: irrigation water in the
dry .season and in the rainy season). rt is possible to specify as
components of the same plan the activities, investments, other
plans, even single commodities; there is therefore only one type of
plan.

- An option allows the possibility of including or excluding year zero

in the time series, to be used, if necessary, to represent the
situation without project when it is assumed constant.

- The variety of·~ la carte" calculations that can be made after the
calculations of a plan, is limited to the definition of aggregates
(weighted sum of result variables, that is to say, commodities
consumed, or produced, or investments), to the definition of the
balance of a project as composed of the sum of a number of single
variables or aggregates, and to the possibility of calculating for
each of these components the present value and switching values and
of making sensitivity tests calculating present value and rate of
return of the project when some variables increase or fall by given
percentages.

( 1) By C. Cappi.
74

- The method of entering data to create a data set corresponding to a

project is not based on a menu system, but on the preparation of a
text (with a programme of text editing) in which the data will be
specified according to certain rules as to their format and their
order, and also through the use of a number of key words in the text
(such as COMMODITY, ACTIVITY, PLAN). Here again we find the
"modelization language" approach described in Chapter IV, Section
8.3. Two files of this type are necessary:

- The first defines the data base, and contains five sections:
headings, commodities, investments, activities, plans.

- The second defines the optional calculations which can be made

after the standard calculations of a plan, with three sections:
aggregates, components for calculation of rate of return and
switching values, and sensitivity analysis by variations in
percentages.

The organization of the system in seven programmes is as follows:

1) CREATE: The programme reads the data from the first text file, and
transforms it into a set of data files for its own future reference.
To correct the data, it is only necessary to change the text file
and repeat the CREATE programme.

2) PRTOATA: Prints the data base.

3) QUANTY: For a plan specified by the user (in response to messages

displayed by the programme), this programme calculates the
quantities of commodities consumed or produced by the plan, and the
investments.

4) PRTQUA: Prints results in quantities calculated by the QUANTY

programme.

5) COMVAL: Multiplies the quantities previously calculated by prices,

to calculate the values.

6) PRTVAL: Prints the costs and benefits calculated by the COMVAL

programme.

7) AGGREG: Using the specifications of the second text file, calculates

the aggregates, and makes analyses of rate of return and
sensitivity.

Unlike MADS II, the constraints in the programme as to the size of

the problem which can be treated (linked to the size of the available
memory) are expressed globally by two parameters only, the duration of the
maximum life of the project and total maximum number of elements
(commodities, activities, investments and plans) that can be defined.
 75

d. The MADS I I I Programme

This programme was developed by the author (1) in FAO, Rome, on an

ND-100 computer in the programming language Pascal (see specifications of
the system in Annex 1). The general specifications are based on concepts
outlined in Chapter IV, Section E and are based on the experience acquired
in preparing the MADS, MADS II and DASI programmes described above. The
user's guide is reproduced in Annex 5.

Ii) General Characteristics

The MADS III programme takes up the fundamental concepts of MADS,

that is to say, the data types commodity, activity and plan. It also
includes additional types described in Chapter IV, that is to say, the
investment, credit operation, transfer activity and aggregate.

The basis of calculation of a credit operation can be, among the

results of a plan, either a commodity or an investment, or an aggregate of
commodities or investments.

An aggregate may contain as components commodities, investments,

credit operations, or other aggregates. In the case of credit operations,
the result at the level of the aggregate will be the net financing (amount
of the loan less debt service). For the purposes of simplification, the
following restrictions were introduced in the definition of transfers: a
transfer may be defined only on the basis of quantities (not values); in
case of compensation (transfer back), the "source" can only be a commodity;
in the absence of compensation, the source can also be an investment;· the
use of aggregates as source was excluded.

The sub-periods in the year were suppressed, as in the DASI

programme, since they could be replaced by definitions of commodities
corresponding to each sub-period. Year zero is optional in a data set.

The approach of the text file for entering the initial data was
kept, as in the DASI programme. The programme once the text file is
created remains entirely interactive through the medium of menus and
questions.

The results of the standard calculation of a plan can, as in the

case of MADS II, be transferred to data files which can be used for making
supplementary calculations or producing tables with the MANIP programme.

(ii) Organization of the Programme

From the user's point of view, the programme is composed of five

modules:

- The initial module, which is run once at the beginning of each new
session: by entering a generic file name, the user can either start
working on the basis of an existing data set, or prepare files for a
new one.

(1) In collaboration with S. Katz, who did a large percentage of the actual
programming.
76

- The module for creating a data base, which analyses a text file
(previously prepared) and uses it to create the project data base.

- The module for printing the data base.

- The calculation module.

- The module for correcting the data base.

(iii) Creation of a Data Base

This module is automatically called by the initial module when a new

set of files is created. It is also called through the main menu when the
user wants to replace his old data base with new data, and process a new
text file (called source file).

The module calls the name of the source file to be used, and
processes this source file to create a data base containing the definition
of commodities, activities, plans, etc., of the project. The data base can
be corrected, if necessary, in two ways:

- Certain limited corrections are possible in an interactive way,

using the relevant module of the programme (see below).

- Whatever correction is necessary, it is always possible to "come out

of" the MADS III programme, to correct the source text (usin~ the
text editor programme of the system), and to call MADS III again,
and to then run the module of data base creation with the modified
source file. This method is the only possible one for corrections
not allowed in the programme itself, and particularly when it is
intended to modify the structure of the data base by adding or
taking away components (commodities, activities, plans, etc.).

When the source file is being created, it is necessary to follow a

certain format for the data. In order to limit errors, it is possible to
copy a standard text from the system which already contains the "skeleton,
and indications of how to enter the data. This file can then be modified
(through entering data to create the source file for the user (see example
in Annex 5).

At the time of processing the source file, the module for creating
the data base will carry out a number of checks on the possibility of
"abnormal" specification data at the time of definition of aggregates,
credit operations, and transfer activities:

- An aggregate can, depending on the option chosen, be calculated on

the basis of data expressed in quantities and in values, or on
values alone. When an aggregate is based on quantities, it is not
valid for it to include as a component an aggregate based solely on
values. The credit operations, consequently, can only be components
of aggregates based on values.

- A loan being destined a priori for financing costs, the basis of

calculation of a credit operation - if this is an aggregate - should
only include commodities or investments, and no other types.
 77

(iv) Printing the Data Base

This module can produce a "catalogue" of the data base, that is to

say, a list of components with some of their characteristics, and can print
all or part of the project data, in a format suitable for direct insertion
in a report.

(vi Calculation Module

Calculations are made altogether on quantities of commodities and

investments for all the plans defined in the data base, and the
corresponding results are stored in a file. These results will have to be
recalculated each time the module creating the data base is run again, or
.when the data concerning the levels of components of an activity or a plan
are modified by the module for correcting the data base (described below).

The other calculations are only made for a given plan, selected by
the user. They concern results in value, credit operations, aggregates, and
the net value of the plan.

This calculation mechanism leads to correct results even when the

commodities whose prices change with time are the subject of a calculation
of aggregation following the phasing mode: only quantities are aggregated in
this way, the multiplication by price series being done ,t the level of the
plan for which results have been requested.

The module includes five sub-modules:

- Calculation of quantities (called automatically when necessary).

- Complementary calculations for a given plan.

- Printing of results.

- Rate of return calculations.

- Transfer of results to MANIP.

The nature of the calculations made, and the rate of return and
sensitivity analysis calculations correspond to the specifications developed
in Chapter IV, Section E.3, with the following details as regards the credit
operations:

- When the basis of calculation of the amount of the loan is a

commodity, the values corresponding to costs (the purpose of the
loan being to finance these costs) will alone be taken into account.
If the commodity if exclusively consumed, the values will be used
directly. If the commodity is consumed, produced and transferred,
only the years for which the balance is negative, and for which
therefore finance is needed, will be taken into account.

- When the basis of calculation is an investment, only the cost of the

initial investment and the provision for physical contingencies will
be taken into account. By convention, the other costs calculated by
the investment operation (see below) will not be taken into account
in the calculation of the need for financing.
 78

- When a credit operation is defined in a plan (for example, a farm

model) which is itself aggregated in another plan (for example, a
project) using the phasing mode, the calculation of aggregation can
be done directly on the results of the credit operation only if the
price of the commodities or the investments serving as a basis for
calculation of the loan are constant; in the opposite case, the
calculation would have to be made differently, and this possibility
does not figure in the programme. The consequence is that the credit
operations will be ignored at the time of calculating the
aggregation of the components of a plan if the following conditions
are met:

- There is at least one credit operation which should be

aggregated using the phasing mode.

- This credit operation is based on commodities/investments of

which at least one has a price which is not constant.

It should be remembered that the results, in the form of tables of

time series in quantities and in value (year by year), will include the
following items:

- Commodities consumed.

- Commodities produced.

- Commodities transferred.

- Balance of commodities.

- Investments and their replacement.

- Physical contingencies on investments.

- Maintenance of investments.

- Residual value of investments.

- Loans.

- Debt service (for each loan, and total).

- Interest and principal components of debt service (in option).

- Outstanding amount (for each loan).

- Aggregates.

- Net value of the plan (balance).

The calculation of profitability (rate of return and present value,

and present values and switching values of each compone~t) will be made as
required, either on a plan or on an aggregate.
 79

Once a plan has been calculated, the other four modules can be run
in any order. Internal tests prevent errors. It is, for example, only
possible to request at the opening of a new session the print-out of results
corresponding to the last plan calculated at a preceding session, if in the
interval there has been no change in content of the data base.

The results of a plan can be accumulated, in whole or in part, in

files of the type of those of the MANIP programme, created from the same
generic names as those of the MADS files now being used: if, for example,
the user is working with MADS with a generic file name such as SENEGAL-I,
the same name will be given in reply to questions on the MANIP programme
when the latter programme is used to make supplementary calculations.

(vi) Correction of Data Base

This module can, without corning out of the MADS III programme,
modify values or characteristics of the components of the data base, without
having to recreate it entirely. It is thus possible to change quite easily,
through a menu system, the value of a yield or the rate of interest on a
loan, and to recalculate the results of a plan. This gives all the necessary
flexibility to the analyst for adjusting the model and testing the
sensitivity to changes in the data.

(vii) Example of Use

The simplified example below is intended to illustrate the different

concepts of MADS III.

The first section of data, in the source file, contains five lines
corresponding to the name of the project, the name of the data set, the name
of the monetary unit, the base year - O or 1 - and the duration of the
project, and the discount rate.

Example:

Mali - Irrigation project

Financial analysis
CFAF
20
12. 0

The following stage is the identification of the variables

corresponding to the different types of data.

Let us assume that the analysis concerns an area to be developed for

irrigation. The area is at present cultivated by recession flood rice, and
could after development be cultivated partly with erect rice, followed by
maize over one-third of the area, and partly with floating rice. The costs
of production are expressed in inputs per ha (in value) and in days of work.

The costs of the project include the following items: investment,

maintenance costs, costs of pumping for the full parameter, and costs of
extension services.

The following commodities will 'first have to be defined: rice,

maize, inputs, work, pumping and extension services.
 80

The commodities section of the source file will look like this:

COMMODITIES
Rice tons
A 1 180000
Maize tons
A 1 230000
Inputs FCFA 1,000
A 1 1000
Labour man-day
A 1 700
Pumping m3
A 1 5
Extension services FCFA millions
A 1 1000000
ENDA TA

Each commodity is defined by a name, a unit, and a price series. The

letter A indicates that the following figure represents the number of values
supplied (the last value is repeated until the year 20), and the following
are the values themselves.

Each crop will then be described in the form of an activity:

ACTIVITIES
Irrigated rice Ha
Rice p
A 4 2 2.5 3 3.5
Inputs C
A 4 35 40 45 52
Labour C
A 118
END
Floating rice Ha
Rice p
A 3 1. 5 2
Inputs C
A 3 40 50 60
Work C
A 1 98
END
Rice without project
Rice p
A 0.5
Inputs C
A 1 11 . 4
Labour C
A 1 54
END
Maize (project) Ha
Maize p
A 3 1. 5 2
Inputs C
A 3 20 30 35
Labour C
A 11 8
END
EN DAT A
 81

The lettre C or P, opposite the components of an activity, indicates

whether the commodity is consumed or produced.

The following section is that of investments:

INVESTMENTS
Land development FCFA millions
A 1 1000000
50 3 5 10 0
ENDA TA

The investment will be given in value (in the definition of the

plan), and the data of the third line correspond to its duration (50 years),
to the time betw~en the investment and the first maintenance costs (3
years), to the maintenance cost (51. of the investment cost each year), and
to the percentage to be applied to the cost by way of provision for physical
contingencies (101.). The last figure (zero in the example) is the residual
value of the investment (in percentage, at the end of its useful life fixed
by the first parameter).

The following section, that of aggregates, allows the user to

define, for example, the total production of cereals (rice plus maize). The
aggregate perimeter will serve to calculate an economic rate of return that
excludes the costs of labour and credit (it is assumed, in this simplified
example, that the other prices are the same for economic and financial
analyses l.

AGGREGATES
Cereals tons
QUANT
Rice
Maize
END
PERIMETER u
VALUES
Rice
Maize
Land development
Inputs
Extension services
Pumping
END
ENDA TA

The mechanism of transfer activity can be used to calculate the

costs of pumping, if it is estimated that they are proportionate to
production.
. I
Assuming that the pumping is only necessary for rice, and that
1t takes 1,200 mJ per ton of erect rice and 2,000 mJ per ton of floating
rice, at a cost of FCAF 5 per m3, the following transfer activity could be
defined:

TRANSFERS
Pumping water mJ
SURPWITHOUT
Rice Pumping
ENDA TA
82

The quantity of pumping water will be calculated on the basis of

rice production, without transfer back. The quantity of the commodity
"pumping" will depend on the specification of this transfer in a plan. Since
the choice has been made to use the same commodity for two crops whose water
requirements differ, it will be necessary to specify two separate plans. An
alternative would have been to define two commodities (floating rice and
erect rice) and an aggregate to obtain total rice production. The following
section describes credit operations. Let us suppose that inputs are financed
partly by seasonal credit:

LOANS
Seasonal credit FCFA
0 1 13. 5
PAID EQUAL.INST
Inputs SEPARATE
END AT A

The three figures in the second line indicate the duration of the
grace period, the number of annual repayments, and the rate of interest. The
values O and 1 correspond to an annual loan. The following line indicates
that the interest is paid during the grace period and the reimbursements are
made in constant annual payments (the specifications are necessary but have
no effect in the case of annual credit). Inputs is the name of the commodity
used to calculate the amount of the loan, and SEPARATE means that annual
values should be considered as the basis of several different loans. The
sections "plans" completes the data set:
 83

PLANS
Erect rice Area
Irrigated rice PT
A 4 0 100 250 450
Pumping water TR
A 1 -1200
END

Lowland rice Area

Floating rice PT
A 4 0 75 15 0 250
Pumping water TR
A 1 -2000
END

Project Area
Erect rice A
A 1 1
Lowland rice A
A 1
Maize PT
A 5 0 20 60 120 150
Seasonal credit A
A 6 0.60 0.60 0.50 0. 4 0 0.30 0.0
Rice without project A
A 1 -200
Extension services A
A -4
Land development A
A 6 396.6 486.4 177. 7 6 4. 7 39.8 0
END
EN DATA

The plans for erect rice and lowland rice were necessary, as
mentioned above, to calculate needs in pumping water (the "levels" -1 ,200
and -2,000 are negative to indicate a cost). It will be noted that
identifiers should be unique: we have therefore used "lowland rice" for the
plan, "floating rice" for the activity and "rice" for the commodity. The
parameter PT means that the calculation has been made according to the
phtsing method and that levels of activity (the areas of each crop) are in a
total number of units.

The project plan includes other plans (erect rice and lowland rice),
two activities (maize and rice without project, which will be deducted since
its level is negative), an investment (land development, specified in value,
and in FCFA millions), a credit operation (the seasonal credit will cover
60Z of ,the cost of inputs, decreasing later and being cancelled as from year
6), and a commodity (extension services, where one line of costs can be
directly specified).

The calculation of the project plan will show rice and maize
productions, and the total of cereals, as well as the different costs. All
the results will be in incremental value compared with the situation .without
project, and the balance of the plan will be used for the rate of return
calculation. Below is a copy of the source file. The file is constituted by
inserting data into a predefined standard file, which also provides
instructions on how the data should be presented. Appendix 3 of Annex 5 also
shows the same example, but with names in French, as well as the
corresponding tables of data and results produced by the MADS III programme.
 84

COPY OF THE SOURCE FILE

Mali - Irrigation project

Financial analysis
FCFA
20
1 2. D
*******************************************
COMMODITIES
Rice tons
A 1 180000
Maize tons
A 230000
Inputs FCFA 1, DOD
A 1 1000
Labour man-days
A 1 7 DD
Pumping m3
A 1 5
Extension services millions
A 1 1000000
ENDA TA
**********************************************
ACTIVITIES
Irrigated rice ha
Rice p
A 4 2 2.5 3 3.5
Inputs C
A 4 35 40 45 52
Labour C
A 1 118
END

Floating rice ha
Rice p
A 3 1. 5 2
Inputs C
A 3 40 50 60
Labour C
A 1 98
ENO

Rice without project ha

Rice p
A 1 0.5
Inputs C
A 1 11 . 4
Labour C
A 1 54
ENO

Maize (project) ha
Maize p
A 3 1. 5 2
Inputs C
A 3 20 30 35
Labour C
A 1 118
 85

END
ENDA TA
******************j*****************
INVESTMENTS
Land development millions
A 1 1000000
50 3 5 10 0
ENDA TA
*************************************
AGGREGATES
Cereals tons
QUANT
Rice
Maize
END
PERIMETRE ll
VALUES
Rice
Maize
Land development
Inputs
Extension services
Pumping
END
ENDA TA
*************************************
TRANSFERS
Pumping water m3
SURPWITHOUT
Rice Pumping
ENDA TA
*************************************
LOANS
Seasonal credit FCFA
0 1 13. 5
PAID EQUAL.INST
Inputs SEPARATE
END AT A
*************************************
PLANS

Erect rice Area

Irrigated rice PT
A 4 0 100 250 450
Pumping water TR
A 1 -1200
END

Lowland rice Area

Floating rice PT
A 4 0 75 150 250
Pumping water TR
A 1 -2000
ENO

Project Area
Erect rice A
A
Lowland rice A
86

A
Maize (project) PT
A 5 0 20 60 120 150
Seasonal credit A
A 6 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.0
Rice without project A
A 1 -200
Extension services A
A 1 -4
Land development A
A 6 396.6 4 8 6. 4 177. 7 64.7 3 9. 8 0
END
ENDA TA
******************************************
******************************************
FORMAT FOR INPUT
================
Headings :
1st line Project name (max. 50 char.)
2nd line Data set name (max. 30 char.)
3rd line Currency name (max. 10 char.)
4th line Base year (0 or 1) and project LIFE (max. 50 years)
5th line Opportunity cost of capital (in percentage)

Data :
set TAB to 30
FOR ALL TYPES
1st line : NAME (up to 25 char.) - TAB - UNIT (up to 10 char.)

COMMODITIES : 2nd line : Time series of PRICES

ACTIVITIES : For each commodity in the activity : 2 lines

1st line : NAME - TAB - TYPE
2nd line : Time series of COEFFICIENTS
END on a line at the end of the list of a given commodity
Possible types : C (for consumed), P (for produced)

INVESTMENTS : 2rd line : Time series of unit prices

3nd line : 5 numbers : INV. LI FE, TIME LAG FOR MAINTENANCE,
l for MAINTENANCE COSTS, l of CONTINGENCIES, l for RESIDUAL
VALUE

AGGREGATES 2nd line : VALUES or QUANT

line for each item in the aggregate : NAME - TAB - WEIGHT
Item can be commodity, investment, aggregate or loan.
Number of items is limited to 30 per aggregate.
END on a line at the end of the list of a given aggregate

TRANSFERS : 2st line : TYPE

3nd line : NAME of SOURCE - TAB - NAME of TRANSFER COMM.
Possible types: DEFBACK, DEFWITHOUT, SURPBACK, SURPWITHOUT
If type is DEFWITHOUT or SURPWITHOUT, source can be a commodity or an
investment.
If type is DEFBACK or SURPBACK, source MUST be a commodity.

LOANS 2nd line 3 numbers : GRACE PERIOD, REPAYMENT PERIOD, INTEREST

RATE?.
3rd line PAID/NOTPAID - TAB - EQUAL.INST/CONST.CAPIT
 ;:J 7

4th line : Name of item with LOAN AMOUNTS - TAB - SINGLE/SEPERATE

Item can be commodity, investment, aggregate of commodities
and/or investments.

PLANS For each item in the plan : 2 lines

1st line : NAME - TAB - TYPE
2nd line : Time series of COEFFICIENTS
ENO on a line at the end of the list for a given plan
Possible types : A ( for annual calc),
PT (for phasing calc - nbr of units is total
PI (for phasing calc - nbr of units is incremental
TR if item is a transfer
PT and PI can be used only for activities and plans.
Possible items anything but an aggregate.

TIME SER I ES

On the same line :

- Type : A(ctual), L(inear interpolation), C(ompound rate)
- Numbers, depending on type :
A : 1st number : year when values get constant - next : list of values
Number of values MUST be equal to - 1st number if BASE=1
- 1st number+ 1 if BASE=O
L, C : 1st number : Value in base year (0 or 1)
2nd and 3rd numbers : First and last year of change
4th number : if L : Value in last years
if C : Compound rate in Y. (negative if decrease)
To separate numbers, use only SPACES (i.e. blank characters)
(************************************************************************)
*************************************************************************
The table below includes some of the results of the calculation of
the plan "project". It has been prepared by transferring these results to
the MANIP programme. Note that MANIP has added suffixes to the data names,
to allow for precise identification (e.g. RPCST corresponds to Replacement
Cost - see Annex 5, p. 16).

The second table presents rate of return and sensitivity analysis

based on the aggregate PERIMETRE.
 Mah - Projet d'1rrio~t1on
Analyse financ1ere
Currency : FCFA
R[SULTATS DU PLAN PROJLT O:>
-----==-=============-=============----=========================-=------============--==============---=-==============================================::;:::========= O:>
9- l · 19U.;
Year 0 1 2 3 4 "J 6 7 8-19 20
-- ---- ... --· -------------------------------------------------------------------------·-·-·-·------------------------------------------------------
~ iz-COi'l:J 0.0 -108. 0 175.0 637.5 BJ'l.5 W::iO.O 1875. 0 1975.0 1975.0 1975.0
R1 z-1201· 1.i 0.0 -18090000. 0 :HSHDOO.O 114'l50000 .1 240749991/.9 2970000UU. ! 337500000.0 }55580000. 0 35'.:lJOOOOO.O 35:i~OOUOO.O
Mc:E-CIJ1 1 G o.o 9.0 20.0 70.0 1li0.0 240.0 2L:S. 0 300.0 300. 0 :m.o
!'la 1s-cur·v o.o 8.0 4600000.0 1b100000.0 3b808000.0 55200000.0 65550009.0 69000000.0 69000000.0 b9UOOUOO.O
In1iants-CUCQ o.a -2280.0 4620.0 !5120.0 30570.0 36170.0 39820. 0 41370.0 41370.0 41370.0
lrdiants· COCV o.e ·-2280000. 0 4!,20000.0 15120000.0 30570000.0 3617ooog.o 3Y820000.0 41370000.0 .;r.mooo .o 413'.10000.0
Jra d1l·{QCQ
1
0 .8 -10800.0 10710. 0 40480.0 80%0.0 345UO.O 84500.0 84500.0 34500.0 lJ4500.0
Ii :v~il CUCV 0. I -7560000.0 7497000.D 21]336000.0 5bb72000.0 59150000.0 59150000.0 59150000.0 591SOOOO.O '5Yl:iYOOO.O
PO,').iGe-CQTQ 0.8 0.0 -390000.0 -1035000.I -2015000.0 -24&0UOO.O -2770000.0 -2890000.0 -~890000.0 -28</UOUO.O
~ 0 M? ::i:e corv 0. 8 0.0 -1950000.0 -5175000.0 -10075000.0 -12300000.0 -13850000.0 -14450000.0 -144:iOOOO. 0 -14450000.0
lnc~·jre;;ent· COTQ O. G -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4. 0 4. 0 -4. 0 -4.0 -4. 0 -4. 0
Enc;,.Jr 2;.;en t·COTV 0. 0 -4000000.0 -4000000.0 -4000000.8 -4000000.0 -4000000.0 -400 0000. 0 -4000000.0 -4U9UOOO. 8 -40UVUOO.O
i::,·,en;,aei.ent· QUANT 0. 0 3%.b 486.4 177.7 64.7 31] .u 0.0 0. 0 0. 0 1.0
A111::1,.,cidient VALUE 0.0 396600000. 0 486399999.8 177bfJ9999.9 64700000.0 39800000.0 0. U 0. 0 0. 0 0.0
i;,,c', dii :?,.,~n1 RP CST 0. 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 U. 0 0. U 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
t1hc:ri:.::erient· CONTG 0.0 39bb0000.0 48b48000.0 17770000.0 64,0060.0 39800UO.O 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0
A1·.e:: :;qe=,ent·-MIHT U. 0 o.o o.o 0.8 19830000.0 44150000.~ 53035000. U 56270000.0 ':r8260000.0 58~bUUOO.O
A1:i::1 oG e,,en t···RSVAL 0. 0 0.0 0.0 O.B ~.D u.o u.o 0. 0 0.0 72}U220U1.4
C2:2dr:=· AG(;RQ o.o -100.0 195.0 707.5 !417.5 1!]<)U.O 2160. 0 2275.U 2275.0 2Z75. 0
Cb':::::il :'?S ;,{;\AV O.G -18000000. 0 36100000.0 130050000.0 277550000.0 352200UOU.O 403U5000U.O 424500000 .2 424:i00000.2 4~4~001J00.2
Pi.JI!,~'.: fJ.:E··Al;GRV o.o -455980000.0 ·-50S'509999. 8 -BGCJ141/99.9 141905000.1 211800000.3 292345000.3 30841UOBO. 3 30U20000.3 1U2'7'44200 l. 5
Crs-d it de rn1pagne-VAllJ[ o.o 0.0 2772000.0 7:il,0000.0 1222!:0UO.O 10851000.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cr::dl, GE ca~pagne-DBT~V o.o o.o 3146220 .0 85tl0i.OO.D 1387D7l.l0.0 1231soe5.o Il . u 0. 0 0.0 0.0
i'r~o:i. t Jr
·=~riPa~ne-I~H~
Cn,,Ji t 2 e:;n(la ne-L J t~ ~J zi~~trtr~:~ Hto~~~:~ 1~;~r·!·
u.0
1 ....
0
1
ogP41r,i1
Jl010.u ~j 0. S
0.0
0. 0
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0. 0
e.o
C,cdt te catipagne-OUTLN o.u 0.0 o.o 0. 0 0. D Q.O 0. 0 D.O 0. 0 0. 0
:1t •J ,,,, · !'!..!JD!.. 0.9 -448420006.2 ··517381219 .1 -110271599. 9 835C222U.3 151Hl511S.4 233195000.4 249260001.4 24?270000.4 ~''/0292001. 5
------------=====:===--=-==-=======-----============---=============---==============-===============---===========-----=============-------=-===----------==----------
 N,11 - Pro jet d'irr1uat1on
Analyse financ1ere
Currency : !Tl A

RESULTS 01 AGGREGATES FOR PLAN Projet (VALUL.S)

=------------=-=------------======----==============--=========---------===========------=-=--====-=-==-=--=-=-=====----=====================
'!- 1--1 ~'84
Year ·)
'- 4 5 6 7 20
H.IUtiU~E U -4'.559t;OUU0.8 -50950999~'.U -88914999.9 141905000.1 ;.'.lHlOOOOU.3 2~1;;:345000.3 308410000.3 3064200!J0.3 102944200!.S
=-------------------------------=------------=-=-=---------~-------------------------------------------~=-=-====--------=-==------==--------

Rate of return= 19.2

s~1tch1nQ values for opportunity cost of capital= 12.0 I

Current fGGREGATE being an3iysed is PERIMLH'.[

l'(.:CSENT VALUES swn CHING VALUES

rm CENT
lll:.l'I hr 1'./'77013616. 07 -33. 0
W:.11 hais ]34749954.04 -175.3
l!Lti A~enaneMent ·1~U9560992.&6 48.5
11 tti Int rants -;:'.11457067 .82 277.5
!ttti [ncadreMent ·'/3877774. 30 1963.7
ITtM f'onpaoe -14160651.09 791.1
WITHOUT PiWJECT BALANCE 0.00
NlT BALAACE '.)8&707005 .18
90

4. The Case of Livestock - the LIVMOD Programme

The programme shown below, the LIVMOD programme, was devised by the
author for the needs of the FAO Investment Centre. A programme corresponding
to the specificatibns which were developed in Chapter IV, Section F, is also
being developed in Rome (LIVMOD II).

This programme is based on a dynamic model of the herd, in which the

composition of the herd, mortalities and sales are determined year by year
in the light of the initial composition and the different parameters
provided by the user. A second part of the programme introduces data on
investment, costs, and unit value of production, calculating the net value
of the project. The calculation can be made twice, for the situation without
project and the situation with project, and the economic analysis made on
the difference.

a. The Demographic Model

The herd is divided into 11 age classes, which are fixed: males and
females of O to 1 year, 1 to 2 years, 2 to 3 years, males of 3-4 years,
males of 4-5 years, females over 3 years, males over 5 years, breeding
males. The category of breeding males is a simplified method of dealing with
cases where breeders are of different types. The numbers are calculated in
the model by the application of sales rates and a fixed ratio to the number
of breeding females, specified by the user, which results in purchases if
necessary. If the male/female ratio has been fixed at zero, this category
will be ignored and will not show in the tables.

As well as the initial composition of the herd, the user should

specify:

- The duration of the project (maximum 20 years).

- The maximum number of breeding females at which the herd should be

stabilized, and/or the maximum size of the herd in animal units:
this latter factor will only be important if it represents a
limitation compared with the previous one. Animal units are
calculated in a simplified way by putting weighting coefficients
(given by the user) on classes 0-1 year and 1-2 years.

- The males/breeding females ratio (see above).

- The demographic parameters of the herd, year by year, which are

fertility rates, mortality rates (4 rates: male calves, female
calves, animals of 1-2 years, and the rest of the herd), age of
first calving (which means that females of 1-2 years and 2-3 years
could possibly be included in female breeders), age of surplus
females on sale (when the herd is stabilized - see discussion in
Chapter IV, Section F.2.d), percentage of breeding females used for
milk production.

- The parameters of exploitation of the herd: culling/sale rates for

each class (in percentage) and purchasing programme (in number of
animals).
 91

It 1s possible at the beginning of the programme - to choose

between two options:

- The situation without project is presumed stable; it can be

represented by stored values in year zero of the time series.

- If the situation without project is not stable, it will be necessary

to define two data sets, and to calculate two projections. In this
case the programme allows for the simplification of data input by
defining one of the situations in relation to the other (the data of
one situation will be copied in the other, to be corrected later,
using the normal module for data correction).

This first part of the programme, therefore, enables a herd model to

be calculated (numbers, mortalities, sales). After initial data input (from
the keyboard or from a file previously created) a menu allows for choice
among the following operations:

- Correcting the data on the herd.

- Printing the data on the herd.

- Calculating the model.

- Printing the herd projections.

- Proceeding to economic analysis.

The stabilization of the herd is effected in accordance with the

limitation of maximum size mentioned above.

b. Economic Analysis

This second part of the programme defines a number of costs and

benefits, in order to calculate the profitability of a project based on a
modification of herd performances through a number of interventions.

The model defines the following categories of costs/benefits:

- Investments: for each category (up to 8 can be defined), the cost

must be specified year by year, and the duration for calculating the
replacement.

Fixed costs: these are a series of costs, with a name, specified

year by year.

- Variable costs: for each category, the user specifies a unit cost
per head ( year by year), and the class or classes of animals to
which these costs apply.

- Purchase and sale of animals: the purchase prices are assumed

constant. The sale prices, per head, can vary in time to reflect,
for example, changes in unit weight or quality.
92

Other income: a number of categories can be defined by specifying

as for the variable costs - a unit value per head and the classes of
animals generating this production (examples: milk, manure,
traction).

The programme will compile all these data, using the results of the
demographic model, to calculate the series of costs and benefits, including
change in the herd value at the end of the period.

The analysis may be made by reference to year zero, or by the

difference between two situations. In this case the model calculates not
only the rate of return of the project, but also the present values of
situations with and without project, and the difference expressed in value
and in percentage.

The model can test very quickly the impact of changes in hypotheses
concerning the data, whether they be, for example, prices, herd
performances, or culling policy, as is shown in the example of use presented
below and detailed in Annex 6. But this model is only suitable for the
analysis of purely livestock-raising models (ranch or development in a
region of transhumant livestock-raising, for example), and does not treat
satisfactorily the case of combined cropping and livestock-raising farms,
where crops provide part of the animal's feed.

c. l Example of Use

During a study on the livestock sector in Mali (ref. 46), the author
used the LIVMOD programme to test the effects of certain proposals for
development policy. The northern areas of the country, with a Sahelian
climate, are farmed by transhumant livestock raisers, whereas the south is
occupied by settled farmers. The so-called livestock stratification policy
consists in specializing the Sahelian zone in breeding, that is to say,
production of young animals, which are raised in the zones further south
where fodder resources are more plentiful.

The model was used to test the effects of such a livestock policy on
the level of income of a Sahelian livestock-raiser, in the following way
(see Annex 6):

By using the data provided by a study made by the Institute of Rural

Economics, Mali, a model of 1,000 head corresponding to a transhumant herd
in the dry area was defined (composition by age classes, culling and
mortality rates, animals prices and milk production value - see Annex 6,
Table 1 ).

These data, assumed constant, served to project the composition of

the herd over 20 years, and also the sales value (Annex 6, Tables 2 and 3).
The size of the herd was automatically stabilized by the model at 1,100
animal units, or 25l more than the present size, this figure corresponding
to an estimate of the maximum carrying capacity of the grazing area used by
this herd.

The stratification policy was tested in the following way: in

relation to the projection described above (called "without project"), the
culling rate of males was gradually changed, so as to obtain in due course a
herd in which all the males would be sold between the ages of 1 and 2 years.
The effect on the structure of the herd (Annex 6, Tables 4 and 9) was an
 93

increase 1n the number of breeding females and the off~take rate.

The second parameter tested was the rate of change. The
mechanization of the calculation made it possible to test three hypotheses
rapidly (change in rates of sale of males over three, six or ten years).

In the third place, it was assumed that the specialization in a

breeding herd would involve (as is the case in other parts of the world) an
increase in the price of young males, which was introduced into the
simulation (increase of one-third over five years).

A study of the different results of the model (see Annex 6) enabled

us to see that the herd management policy proposed was insufficiently
attractive for the stock-raiser, which confirmed what certain specialists
had already expressed in qualitative terms. The income of the herd increases
initially, when the surplus males are sold, but drops afterwards during a
transition period, and is stabilized again at a considerably higher level
(187. or 277. more, according to the hypothesis of prices) than the reference
situation. The weight of the period of transition means that the increase in
revenue, discounted over 20 years at 12t., is only 8 to 141. depending on the
hypothesis, a very low figure compared with the fluctuation in the level of
production.

B. Problems Involved in Expanding the Use of Programmes

1. Compatibility and Transferability

Apart from the use of programmes by the organizations that develop

them (for example FAD and the World Bank), it is obviously desirable for
their use to be more widespread, in particular at the level of countries
that have to prepare and then implement agricultural development activities
whose study could benefit from the use of such tools.

Since there is very little standardization of computer systems, it

is often difficult to transfer a programme from one piece of equipment to
another. Thus the programmes using BASIC language of the HP-9845 system are
not, in practice, usable on another system. The World Bank
COHPASS/COSTAB/FARHOD system was developed on a Burrough computer in FORTRAN
IV language. Although this language is considered very standard, the
development of a version for IBH computer (VH-CHS operating system), which
is underway, requires many months of work by the programmer.

The DASI programme was originally undertaken in order to have

available a FORTRAN version of MADS II. Two versions exist, one for IBH (VH-
CHS) and the other for the Apple II micro-computer.

The Pascal language was chosen by the author for new programme
developments, because this language is also relatively standard, and far
more flexible to use than FORTRAN. Highly structured programmes easy to read
and change can be written with it, which should enable the various users to
make the programme evolve by themselves if they want to. As well as the
original version on the NORSK-DATA computer, a version of the MANIP
programme has been developed for IBM main-frame computers (see references of
the compiler used in Annex 1).

As well as the possibility of installing the same programmes on

different machines, which could be done with a greater or lesser amount of
work depending on the machines, it would also be a practical advantage if
data files could be exchanged among users, in particular between a country
where a team is working on the study of a project, and the headquarters of
94

an external organization providing assistance (financing institutions, FAD).

Such exchanges have not yet been made, and in practice would probably only
he feasible if the same equipment was available 1n both places.

The use of diskettes (or magnetic tapes) is, here again, blocked
because there is little standardization of equipment (even when supplied by
the same company). The solution involves the use of certain "ad hoc"
standards and the creation of software for converting data files from a
given machine to the format chosen as a means of exchange.

2. Ease of Use - Training of Users

The degree of use of programmes will often depend on the organizing

of training sessions for potential users. The more complicated the programme
is, the more training will be required.

For a conceptually very simple programme, with a menus system like

MANIP, a demonstration of one hour is enough for relatively simple use. The
operation of more sophisticated models will need a little more practice, and
will be greatly facilitated by the existence of predefined models that can
be used as starting material.

A reasonable mastery of programmes such as COMPASS, on the other

hand, requires three days' training, followed by regular practice with the
programme.

A programme of the MADS type can be used very easily once the
fundamental concepts of data organization have been properly understood;
experience shows that these concepts can be confusing at first for many
people, and that here again it is useful to organize training sessions,
based on case studies.

There is always a tendency, in the development of such tools, to

underestimate the importance of the time required to prepare good handbooks
and teaching material (case studies) for training users. The problem is
complicated by linguistic factors, when it is a question of developing
French or Spanish versions, for example, of software and documentation
originally developed in English.

3. Use in Rome and in Various Countries

The diffusion of the programmes described in this work is still in

its very early stages.

The DASI and MANIP programmes were installed in January 1983 in

Chile, and were used for the first time - to the author's knowledge - in the
preparation of a large-scale project to be financed by the World Bank. The
MANIP programme and its "help" manual were translated into Spanish (in
Chile) and also installed in Colombia.

The DASI programme ( IBM or Apple II versions) was sent, upon

request, to several countries (Algeria, Tanzania, Panama, Mexico and
Argentina) but information on their use is not available.

The POMP and MADS II programmes are used by CNEA (Centre national
d'~tudes agricoles, Tunis) which has the same Hewlett-Pijckard equipment as
that of the FAQ Investment Centre.
 95

The COMPASS system, whose COSTAB module is now used for most of the
agricultural projects evaluated by the World Bank, has beer, installed
recently at FAO in Rome. Wider diffusion will only be possible, in view of
the size of the system, after an extended period of use on a limited number
of sites.

The programmes available in Rome (MANIP in particular) are now used

in the preparation of a high percentage of projects. There is, however, a
shortage of trained analysts, and not enough terminals available. All too
often, therefore, the programmes are only used for part of the calculations
(calculations of rate of return and sensitivity, phasing calculations);
because of this, all the potential benefits have not yet materialized.
96

VI. CONCLUSIONS. ACTUAL USE OF TOOLS. BENEFITS. LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE

POSSIBILITIES

A. Benefits

Experience has shown that the benefits to be expected from the use
of computing tools, as presented in Chapter III, are in practice
materializing. This is illustrated by the few examples below, drawn from the
author's experience in the FAO Investment Centre.

1. Refining Techniques

Two examples, already mentioned, illustrate the role that could be

played by a calculation programme as "vehicle" of a certain technology:

- The use of switching values as a special tool for analysing the

sensitivity of the profitability of a model is widespread in the
World Bank, thanks initially to the CBDISPLAY programme, and then to
its successor COMPASS. In the Investment Centre in Rome, the same
role is played by the MANIP programme. The use of DASI, then MANIP,
in Chile to prepare the project on which the author worked had the
same result.

- The problems of taking inflation into account in cash-flow

projections, of the treatment to be applied to the farm capital, the
family work, or household consumption in farm models, are treated in
different ways according to circumstances, that is to say, according
to the type of farm and the economic context. Such a diversity of
treatment in fact corresponds to underlying and non-explicit
hypotheses (for example, excluding the family work means that a nil
economic cost is attributed to it). To clarify the discussion, and
suggest a more homogeneous presentation of the models, a standard
example was prepared using the MANIP programme (see V.A.2.b and
Annex 4), and also instructions for using the corresponding data
files to define new models: the calculation programme thus becomes a
simple and effective means of spreading a certain method of work
(since the predefined sequence means a saving of work for the MANIP
user, it will be in his interest to use it, even if he must adjust
it to his specific case).

2. Saving Time for the Project Analyst

The usefulness of freeing the analyst from the physical burden of

calculation lies mainly in the fact that the time thus saved will usually
allow him to improve the quality .of his work, because he will have more time
to devote to problems raised by the project itself.

In some cases, when, for example, the time allocated for the
preparation of a project is particularly short, the availability of a
calculating tool can make all the difference and make it possible to achieve
results that would not otherwise have been possible.
 97

In 1982 a team from the Investment Centre prepared an irrigation

project in Morocco (ref. 49) which included the study of seven areas
(practically seven "projects" in one I), needing the development of three to
four farm models for each area. The number of production activities in each
model (crops and livestock-raising) varied from 15 to 20, given the very
diversified nature of the agriculture concerned. It was possible to finish
the report in less than three months, which was considered indispensable in
the light of the various constraints of the calendar; it is clear that the
schedule could not have been met, and the quality of work would have
suffered, if a programme like MANIP had not been available.

3. Testing Technical Assumptions

When calculations are no longer a constraint, it becomes possible to

test various technical assumptions, that is to say, to see the effect of
such and such a change in the values of a parameter on the results of a
model.

Livestock-raising is a particularly good illustration, since in the

case of a herd demographic model it is particularly difficult to form an
opinion on the results without making all necessary calculations, and these
calculations are particularly burdensome. In such conditions, there are some
types of analyses which will only be made if a computer model is available.
For example, the author had the opportunity to participate, in 1979, in a
study of the livestock sector in Mali (ref.46). One of the elements of the
development strategy proposed was the "stratification" of cattle-raising,
that is to say, the specialization of extensive pasture lands in the
Sahelian area of the country for the maintenance of breeding herds for the
production of calves, and the raising and fattening of animals born in the
north in the more southern areas, where fodder is more plentiful. The
simulation of a Sahelian herd, thanks to the LIVHOD programme, showed that
the impact of such specialization on the income from the herd was such that
the stock-raiser would certainly need other incentives in order to convince
him. The income in fact after increasing in the initial period of
transformation of the herd management (sales of surplus males), dropped to a
level below that of the starting situation, before increasing again; even if
the balance over a long period is finally positive, the scale of
fluctuations would be a major problem (see Chapter V, A.4.c and Annex 6 for
more details).

4. Validating Data and Exploring Alternatives

The role of consistency of models in facilitating data validation by

checking the credibility of the obtained results has already been mentioned
several times.

, We have already quoted the case of a forestry project in Nepal,

where the model used (thanks to informatics) proved not only the validity of
the assumptions (by testing the sensitivity of the model) but also showed
certain unforeeen effects of the project (indirect long-term effect of
proposed forestry management on the natural forest in the area).

The case of livestock-raising projects was also particularly

illustrative. The following example is taken from a report on the
preparation of a livestock development project in eastern Senegal (ref. 50)
written by the author. A herd model was prepared for each of the two areas
of the project, based on a wealth of data provided by the monitoring
component of an ongoing project in the area (a second phase had to be
prepared). In this part of the world, attention is usually concentrated on
98

meat production (because it 1s marketed and provides food for the big
towns). The monitoring cell of the project had also concentrated its
observations - apart from those on the structure of the herd, fertility and
mortalities - on the growth and weight of the animals. The quantitative
model prepared with the LIVMOD programme clearly showed that milk production
(consumed in the home) had just as much weight in total income from the herd
as the sale of animals. This was confirmed by discussions with the
livestock-raisers, which emphasized the importance of milk 1n the
utilization of the herd. The availability of a quantitative model also gave
far more weight to recommendations for reorienting the project (in
particular as to the parameters to be taken into account by monitoring
activities I).

The use of a computing tool also, by facilitating calculation, makes

exploration of alternatives easier. At the time of a study of extension
plans for a given project, the formulation of many farm budgets will improve
the definition of the kind of activities to be encouraged. It will also be
possible to quantify all the implications of such suggestions, which
sometimes leads to adjustments: a suggestion which appeared possible a
priori will be judged, for example, too optimistic when all the implications
in staff or supplies/logistic and/or maketing have been made explicit.

In the case of a development project in Mali based on the creation

of village associations (ref. 51 project prepared using the MADS II
programme), the team responsible for the study had to define types of farm
according to their technological level (traditional, improved traditional,
and larger-scale improved), and to define two possible developments for each
type. The phasing of farm entry into the project was at two levels: gradual
entry of the families of a given village into the programme, and
participation of an increasing number of villages in the project. The
possibility of mechanizing calculation enabled the team to refine the
definition of farm types and to test several development rates. At the level
of economic analysis, where problems arose as to reference prices to be
used, it was also easy to test several calculation assumptions of economic
prices, and to present them in the form of a sensitivity analysis.

B. Difficulties and Limitations

The advantages of using the computing tools described should not

lead us to forget that these tools also have their limitations and can
themselves create specific difficulties, as shown below.

1. Risks of Error

It is easy when entering the data to make a mistake and enter

erroneous values. The user may not verify his data with the necessary care,
and errors can therefore easily slip into the models. The fact that a
programme is powerful, and that the intermediate stages of calculation are
not visible, will often make the verification of the result validity very
difficult.

The need to print and check carefully all data used in defining a
model cannot be over-emphasized.
 99

2. Excessive Variety of Assumptions

When the burden of calculation is no longer a major problem, some

analysts who are not very sure of their basic data have difficulty in making
up their minds, and lose much time in continuously adjusting their data, or
making sensitivity analyses with an excessive number of variants (here we
come to the problem mentioned in the next paragraph).

Nothing is easier than to make a programme produce pages and pages

of tablesl In the end, the analysis is obscured rather than clarified.

3. Excessively Detailed Analysis

Because the constraint represented by the burden of calculations

when done manually - is no longer a factor, project analysts are launching
out into the constiuction of more detailed models than they used to prepare,
multiplying at will the number of crops concerned, the categories of inputs,
the types of farm.

At best, an excess of detail will represent an additional burden in

the presentation of the project. This will not help the process of decision-
making, which was in principle the purpose for which the report was
prepared.

At worst, if the data used is not founded on a solid statistical

base, the result will be deceptive and will give the impression of a
profound knowledge of a situation, without it being possible to form any
opinion on the real degree of precision of the analysis presented.

4. Psychological Aspects

The use of data processing to prepare projects of the type that

concerns us here is still relatively limited. The computer remains for many
people a mysterious, almost magical instrument. There is a danger that the
results will be considered with less critical judgement because they "come
out of a computer", even if this reaction is often unconscious. There is a
tendency to think that "the computer does not make mistakes", and too often
it is forgotten that the computer is used by people who can themselves make
mistakes, specify incorrect data, make errors in defining a model, or that
the programme itself may be insufficiently tested and may in certain cases
give erroneous results.

The best remedy is often a little common sense in looking at the

results.

c. Future Prospects

1. Increased Availability of Material

The almost general availability of large computers in the capitals

of developing countries, and the regular fall in costs of micro-computers,
accompanied by an increase in their power, means that the introduction of
the programmes described in Chapter Vin developing countries becomes more
and more possible. A micro-computer with a 16-bit processor and a hard disc
of 10 Mo, for example, costs ten to fifteen thousand dollars on the American
market (including a printer and basic software), and could easily run the
MANIP or MADS I l l programmes. (1) The World Bank's COMPASS system needs a

(1) Work is in progress at FAO Investment Centre to adapt these programmes

to an IBM-PC/XT micro computer.
1 00

larger capacity in the system (virtual memory of B Mo), but in a very few
years there will be on the market micro-computers equipped with a virtual
memory management system at a very modest cost.

The availability of equipment is therefore less and less of a

constraint. The problem remains, first, the final development of software
and the creation of versions adapted to different machines, and also
versions in Spanish or French (both for messages sent by the programmes and
for the documentation), and secondly, the organization of the installation
of software in different countries, which must be accompanied by a minimum
of training for all users.

The installation of such tools at the level of teams planning and

preparing projects has two important consequences in developing countries:

- The programme of calculation, as seen above, is the vehicle of a

certain methodology of analysis, and also contributes to a certain
standardization in the presentation of the results.

- The availability of the calculating tool increases the possibility

of participation of these countries in preparing projects.

A recent experience of the author clearly illustrates this

phenomenon: a project for agricultural credit and other services was being
prepared in Chile, to be financed with the participation of the World Bank.
The work was being done by the Planning Office of the Minist~y of
Agriculture (ODEPA), with the assistance of FAD/World Bank Cooperative
Programme missions. It had been envisaged that the writing of the
preparation report would be finalized in Rome, in particular because of the
time required. Making the DASI and MANIP programmes available to ODEPA
achieved a substantial time-saving in the preparation of the fifteen farm
models that were required by the project, also facilitating adjustments of
hypotheses in the course of the work. This was a major element in the
decision to finalize the preparation report in Chile itself, which was
obviously far more desirable and ensured far greater involvement of the
Government in the project.

2. From Preparation to Execution

When data processing is introduced in the preparation of projects,

it quickly becomes obvious that it also has a role to play in the
implementation of these same projects.

The most conventional applications concern management and monitoring

of projects, and projects are increasingly envisaging - when this has not
already happened - the mechanization of these tasks.

The use of simulation models of the type described in this work is

also developing in the context of agricultural extension programmes. In many
developed countries, models of farm budgetary simulation are being used more
and more as tools of advanced management, particularly in the case of
combined crop/cattle-raising farms (one may mention, for example, the
programme EXPLORE of the Institute of Rural Management and Economics in
France, or the package of medium-term management programmes for dairy farms
developed at !NRA-Grignon by J.M. Attonaty's team). Before reaching this
stage, however, the use of software of the MANIP or MADS type could be
introduced in many agricultural extension programmes, allowing for the
regular updating - as prices change or technology evolves - of farm models
 101

serving as a basis for extension activities.

Such a proposal was introduced in the formulation of the project on
which the author has been working in Chile, mentioned above. The project
consists in an agricultural extension programme intended to assist medium-
sized or small farms, which would create needs for additional financing by
way of credit lines (which represent the most imrortant cost of the
proJect). This programme and the other activities of the Ministry of
Agriculture - should be supported by the establishment of an information
system called "agricultural information system", through the creation of
data processing centres at national and regional level by the Ministry to
manage the equipment which will support the establishment of a number of
information systems (agricultural statistics, information on prices and
markets, yearbook of suppliers of inputs and services, agricultural
meteorology, etc.), and also the mechanization of administrative tasks ( in
particular, the keeping of current accounts for the credit programme). It is
also envisaged, in the context of the extension programme, to introduce farm
registers with a certain number of farmers. The integration of the data from
these registers, with all the information to be supplied by the system, will
need an additional stage of analysis. This stage has been defined in the
form of a sub-system called "agro-economic analysis", which will in
particular integrate information to present it in the form of budgets for
crops and farm models of a type that could be developed for the preparation
of projects with the computing tools presented in this work. The model,
which could be adjusted regularly on the basis of new information, thus
becomes a component of the extension programmes, and a synthetic means of
presenting the information which is the subject of the extension.

3. Before Preparation

Part of the data necessary for the preparation of projects comes

either from monitoring of ongoing projects, or from surveys made specially
for the purpose.

The use of informatics in these two fields is still in its early

stages in developing countries. Mechanization of processing monitor data has
already been mentioned above. The introduction of computer systems at the
level of processing surveys is also capable of considerable development. The
standard situation at present is one in which processing of survey data is
centralized at a computer centre. Data input is usually very cumbersome, and
validation tests tend to eliminate a high percentage of questionnaires. When
the analysis is finally presented to the user of the study, it becomes very
difficult to use the data again for a subsidiary analysis for example,
because the consultant who did th~ work is the only person capable of
understanding how the data is organized, and he has gone off to do another
survey somewhere else. This kind of situation, now frequent, will disappear
when the use of the micro-computer (and this is already happening) will make
it possible to enter and validate data during the survey itself, to obtain
very rapidly results and to give back to the user not only a report of the
analysis, but also a data base easily usable for later analyses. This
requires the availability of suitable and easy-to-use computer software.
Such software packages already exist or are in the course of development
(like the FARMAP (1) system of FAD), but their use needs to be more widely
spread.

(1) FARMAP - Farm Analysis Package - User's Manual by J. Dixon - FAD -

January 1983.
 SPECIFICATIONS OF COMPUTER SYSTEMS USED

1. HPwlett-Packard Desktop Computer

- type: 9845 B

- core memory (available to user): 192 K

- language: extended BASIC (includes procedures with local variables)

- disk system: two 8 inches floppy drives (2 x 250 K) and one hard disk
drive ( 10 Mb fixed + 10 Mb removable).

2. NORSK-DATA Mini-Computer

- type: NORD-100

- memory: virtual memory system; each task may use up to 128 Kb for
programme plus 128 Kb for data

- language: Pascal, with the following extensions over N. Wirth original

definition:

- CONNECT and DISCONNECT procedures, allowing to dynamically link a

file variable with an external file or device

- GETRAND and PUTRAND procedures, allowing random disk file access.

3. I BM Computers

- type: 4341 or 3031

- operating system: VM-CMS

compiler used: Pascal P4, version 1. 17 for VM/CMS

by Department of Computing and Control
Imperial Colleg~
London, England

The following extensions over the N. Wirth standard have been used:

- CPCOMMAND and CMSCOMMAND to access the operating system from a

programme

- CONNECT procedure (similar to NORSK-Pascal)

- PUTRECORD and GETRECORD procedures, allowing random disk file

access.
 ANNEX 2

MAN IP

PROJECT DATA MANIPULATION PACKAGE

USER Is GU IDE
(February 1985)

Contents: I. General Description 1

II. General Organization and Procedure 1

A. Start Module 1
B. Calculation Module - Data Processing 3
c. Editing 4
D. Data Listing - Printing Module 5

III. Use of Pre-defined Sequences or Formats 7

IV. Example 7
V. Practical Use - Some Advice 9
A. Typical Problems and Errors in
Using MANIP 9
B. Proposals for More Efficient Data
Organization 13
VI. Advantages and Limitations of MANIP in DOC
Project Work 14
A. Advantages 14
B. Limitations 15

Appendices: 1. Functions
2. Sample Runs
 ANNEX 2 1

INTRODUCTORY COURSE - MANIP

Manipulation Package

I. General Description
1. The Manip programme allows the user to perform the following
functions:
i) to enter data into memory;
ii) to perform various operations on it; to subsequently
i i i ) edit, and
iv) print the stored data in tabular form, and
v) to exit from the programme.

2. The programme is organized into five modules. Each module consists

of the many options a user has in performing the above-mentioned functions.
Each module is described briefly below; a full description of the data
processing module is given in Appendix 1.

II. General Organization and Procedure

A. Start Module
3. The Start Module is used once - and once only - at the beginning of
each session. This module either creates a new data set, by specifying the
name of the project, the name of the type of data to be processed, the
currency, the life of the project, and possibly a number of variables or
provides access to a data set created at a previous session. A data set uses
six files, whose names are formed automatically by the programme, based on a
file name (from 1 to 14 characters) given by the user.
4. A data set consists of the following components:

Project Name e.g. India Reservoir Development Project or

Senegal Artisanal Fisheries Project etc.
Data Set Name = e.g. Cash Flow Projection, or
Phased Project Cost, or
Economic Analysis.
Currency Name = e.g. US$, 000 US$ etc.
Project Life = Project Life 11 as used here is indicative
11

of the period for which computations are

intended e.g. 7 years for project cost, 20
years for economic analysis, 10 years for
financial analysis etc.
 ANNEX 2 2

Variable Variables are defined by their name (Yield

1, Investment cost, Paddy, etc.) and
values given to a time series related to
that variable. These values can be input
manually by using one of the features for
defining variables or be the result of
computations defined by the user. The
number of years of the times series of
each variable corresponds to the project
period defined above.
Alternative Methods for Inputting Variable Values

Code 1 Actual Values

Code 2 Linear Interpolation
Code 3 Percentages
Code = 4 Compound Rate
Code 5 S - Curve
Code 6 By reference

5. Actual values. The user enters on a year by year basis the actual
values of the variable.
6. Linear Interpolation. Calculates variable values on a linear
basis: the user must input the value for Year 0, the first and last years of
the period during which the values change and the final value.
7. Percentages. The user allocates percentages of a base value to
particular years.
8. Compound Rate. Applies a compound rate to the inital value, over a
given interval of years. However, only one compound rate can be applied.
9. S-Curve. Calculates variable values for a Sigmoid curve. The user
must input values for the first and last year of the period concerned and
then select one of three forms of $-Curve.
10. By Reference. The user must input values for a base year and enter
the number of the "reference 11 variable. Variable values are then calculated
with the same percentage increases or decreases as the "reference 11 variable.
11. Once the initial module has been executed, the principal menu of
the programme is displayed, allowing the user to select and execute any one
of the other four modules, in any order as often as necessary, until
selection (in the same principal menu) of the 11 end of job 11 option is made.
If the user is unsure about how the functions of MANIP work, he can refer to
the User 1 s Guide (Code 5, Principal Menu).
 ANNEX 2 3

Principal Menu

Code = 1 Data Processing

Code = 2 Data Editing (correcting headings or variables)
Code = 3 Data Listing (producing tables of variables)
Code = 4 Print/Display a List of Variable Names
Code 5 Display MANIP User's Guide
Code 6 Exit MANIP

B. Calculation Module - Data Processing

12. This module processes the data contained in the variables, through
any of the arithmetical operations available. ~ew variables can also be
created as a result of the data processing operation. Processing of
variables can be achieved by either manual processing or programmed
processing. The difference is that in the case of manual processing all
programming steps would have to be redefined if the computation had to be
repeated, while in programmed processing, computing steps are defined once
and can be run again, or edited by the user.
13. After selection of the manual or programmed mode, the user is
provided with a set of 17 arithmetical and 6 support functions, which can be
combined for the effective processing and manipulation of his data set:
Menu of Functions of Processing Menu
1. Display/print X 11. AX/Y + B
2. Rate of return on X 12. AX+ BY+ C
3. Incremental values over year zero 13. If X>O, AX+ BY+ C
4. Cumulative values of X 14. If X<O, AX+ BY+ C
5. Add X over A years 15. If X and Y>=O, AX+ BY+ C
6. Delay X by A years 16. Carry over if AX+ BY+ C<O
7. Advance X by A years 17. Depreciation on X
8. Interest on overdraft 18. Debt service on X
9. AX+ B 19. Phasing a block of variables
10. AXY + B 20. Balance and switching values
21. Read from/write to another another data set
22. Run anot~er sequence of operations
23. Print a table using a predefined format
24. End of processing
25. Print/display a list of variable names
26. Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
14. In the above menu, X and Y corre~pond to code numbers of variables,
and A, Band C to parameters. When a function is selected, the programme
calls the necessary data. It also requests the variable where the results
should be stored. If the number specified corresponds to a variable not yet
defined, the user must enter the name of the new variable.
15. These functions are described in .detail in Appendix 1.
16. The programmed mode is achieved by d~fining a sequence. A sequence
may include up to 50 operations. An operation can also consist of calling
another predefined sequence. It is possible to structure operations in
logical blocks, and to execute many of them automatically (whatever the
 ANNEX 2 4

number of sequences, there is a maximum of 1,000 operations which can be

pre-defined in a data set). Once a sequence has been defined, it can be
edited, listed or run.

Menu of Data Processing Module

Code 1 Manual operation

Code 2 Define a sequence of operations
Code 3 Print/display the definition of a sequence
Code 4 Edit a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code 5 Run a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code = 6 Print/list names of pre-defined sequences
Code = 7 End of processing.

Once the data processing is completed, the user can leave the calculation
mode by using Code 7 End of processing. He will then return to the
principal menu.

C. Editing
17. This module allows the user to edit the title of the data set, the
name, or the values of a variable. It also allows one to add variables or to
delete variables, and to change the life of the project.

Menu of Data Editing Module

Code 1 Headings
=
Code 2 Variable Name
Code 3 = Variable Values
Code 4 Delete a Variable
Code 5 Add New Variables
Code 6 Change project life
Code 7 = No more Editing

18. When one variable is deleted, the others are not re-numbered, thus
the existing definitions of tables and sequences of operations remain valid.
19. Editing of variable values (Code 3) and adding of new variables
(Code 5) lead the user to a. new set of options, which allows him to
manipulate or define the data of the variable directly or to use
arithmetical functions for this purpose. (For details see II A, Start
Module).
20. After the editing procedure is completed, the user can leave the
editing module (Code 7), and return to the Principal Menu.
 ANNEX 2 5

D. Data Listing - Printing Module

21. The user has the possibility of preparing tables on the basis of
the data contained in his data set. These tables can be either a complete
or partial listing of the variables in the order of their occurrence in the
data set or a selective listing of the variables in an order chosen by the
user. Four types of printers can be used:
- the terminal of the user (CRT);
- the line printer (132 characters per line);
- the H-P printer (227 characters per line);
- the Output file (internal word processor); l/

ll The "output file" or 11 text 11 file is a work file created by the

programme having the same name as the data set e.g. (DATA SET NAME)-
W:TEXT. If during a particular run of the programme the user specifies
the output file as the printer, the output file accumulates the
requested information. At the beginning of each run of the programme
the output file is cleared. If the user would like to retain the
information printed to the output file, he has the following optio~s:
To obtain a hard copy of information written to output file
the user can:
(1) EXIT from programme
@ COPY-FILE
DESTINATION FILE: H-P (name of a printer)
SOURCE FILE: name of Data file
If the user would like to retain the contents of the
output file in a permanent text file, he can write the
contents of the output file to another text file:
(1) EXIT from programme
@ PED (name of Data file)
Once the output file appears press W(write)
STORE DOCUMENT: 11 name of new file in inverted commas 11
CR
(2) or COPY-FILE to another text file:
Exit from programme
@ COPY-FILE
DESTINATION FILE 11 new file name in inverted commas"
SOURCE FILE: name of Data file
In this way the file will be stored as a text file for
future editing.
 ANNEX 2 6

22. The Data Listing Mode provides the following options:

Data Listing Menu

Code 1 Standard output of all/block of data
Code = 2 Produce a table using a previously defined format
Code = 3 Define a table format
Code = 4 Print/display a previously defined format
Code = 5 Edit a previously defined format
Code = 6 Print list/names of defined formats
Code = 7 End of output operations

23. The standard output (Code 1) prints all or a selected block of

variables and is normally used to verify the content of variables, mainly
during the data processing phase.
24. If headings and names of variables are adequate. the selective
listing could be used to prepare final tables for reports and annexes. Lists
prepared by the MANIP package have all variable names printed in capital
letters, and standard headings. However, if the MANIP output is not adequate
these lists could be edited, i.e. footnotes added, headings improved,
variable names redefined, if the lists were printed into the output file
from where they could be converted into a text file and edited with normal
word-processing procedures (see footnote 1/).
25. The creation of tables (selective listings) - Code 3 provides the
following possibilities for defining the tables:
- table sub-title;
- table number;
- number of years, or years to be printed;
- scaling of data - use of constant factors (thousand, million etc.)
to define the size of values to be printed.
- totals per line (values added over the number of years to be
printed);
- number of decimals;
- blank lines in a table;
- printer to be used.

26. Once a table has been created, it can be edited and any of the
above parameters modified. After the tables have been created and the
editing process is completed, the user can either return to the Principal
Menu without printing the tables, by using Code 7, or ~rint the tables by
using Code 2. In the second case, the tables will be printed on the printer
defined in the table format.
 ANNEX 2 7

27. The user has the option of printing each table individually by
using Mode 2, or printing a set of pre-defined tables in a sequence. For
this he would have to use function 23 in a new or pre-defined sequence in
the processing module and then run the sequence.

III. Use of Pre-defined Sequences or Formats

28. The user has the option of creating new sequences or table formats
or of copying existing sequences or formats.
29. In the case of new sequences or table formats, the user needs to
define all the functions and parameters he deems relevant for his sequence
or table format.· This process is time consuming, as he must frequently check
the accuracy of computations and the adequacy of the presentation of a table
format.
30. Once a sequence or a table format has been defined, and the user
wishes to apply the same operations and table formats to other data in the
same or another data set 1/ he can copy the sequence or table format, thus
creating a new sequence or table format. When such a sequence or table
format is copied, all the code numbers of the variables in that
sequence/table format can be modified by a postive or negative constant
factor, (displacement factor). This allows the use of the same
sequence/table format for another block of .variables. the order of which
must however, correspond to the order of the variable set.
31. This mechanism considerably reduces the work required in· the
detailed specification of operations needed for the calculations of a
project. It can be used in two ways:
i) It is possible to constitute a library of 11 standard files 11
corresponding to typical applications; for any given application, a
set of files could contain variables, with nil values, and
definitions of sequences and tables.
ii) When a project composed of several farm models is under study, the
types of analysis and presentation desired will, in general, be the
same for all the models. The variables, the sequences of
operations and the tables corresponding to one model can be defined
and copied as often as necessary to construct the other models.

IV. Example
Construction of a Model
I

32. The following example shows how MANIP can be used to construct a
model.
33. Let us suppose that the following information is available for a
farm model (in the form of 11 variables", that is to say, series of annual
data):

ll Only possible if in the same user space.

 ANNEX 2 8

1 Total value of production

2 Other income
3 = Investments
4 = Cost of production less labour
5 = Cost of wage-earning labour force
6 = Value of family labour force
7 Household consumption
34. The intention is to study the methods of financing this farm by
long-term credit to finance the investments, and short-term credit to
finance production costs (less labour force and wage-earning labour force).
35. The lines of a summary table may be constructed step by step in the
following way:
- Step 1: Add the variables 1 and 2 (operation 12 in the menu, with
X=l, Y=2, A=l, B=l, C=O) to create the variable 8 = total income.
- Step 2: Using operation 12 or operation 20 (balance), add the
variables 4 (costs of production) and 5 (wage-earning labour
force), applying to each of them a weighting coefficient
corresponding to the calculation of interest on a short-term loan:
a rate of 15% per annum and a loan of six months will be translated
by, for example, .a coefficient of 0.075. Operation 20, by which
more than two variables (up to 50) can be added together, is
preferable here, since it will be easier to correct the model by
adding other variables or changing the coefficients. Result:
variable 9 = interest on seasonal credit.
- Step 3: Using operation 20, the sum of variables 3, 4, 5 and 6 can
be calculated to create the variable 10, or total expenditure
(before financing).
- Step 4: The difference between variables 8 (total income) and 10
(total expenditure) is calculated (operation 12, AX+ BY+ C, with
X = 8, Y = 10, A= 1, B = -1, C = 0), to give the variable 11: net
benefit before financing.
- Step 5: And so on •.•

36. The complete example presented in Annex 4 (in which the variables
do not have the same code numbers, since they were created in a different
order) then shows how the user may choose to calculate the amount of a long-
term loan as a percentage of investment costs, the difference being financed
by a contribution by the farmers; how the debt service can be calculated in
constant terms; how to apply to it a deflation factor (to reflect the
"actual" weight of the reimbursements in a model expressed in a constant
monetary unit); and how the benefit after financing is adjusted by the
values of household consumption and family work to obtain a projection of
monetary income.
 ANNEX 2 9

V. Practical Use - Some Advice

A. Typical Problems and Errors in Using MANIP
37. The MANIP package permits one to create and manipulate data by
using pre-defined sequences. This manipulation of data must follow
established mathematical rules, otherwise the programme would be
automatically interrupted or calculate incorrect results.
38. Typical mistakes that occur when using the MANIP package are:
- assignment of values to the wrong variables;
- reassignment of the results of data manipulations to the same
variable which served as a basis for the computation;
- use of variables in pre-defined formats which do not correspond to
those used in the computing process;
- incorrect logical order of operations within predefined sequences;
- creation of circular sequences i.e. within a sequence calling an
operation that runs the same sequence;
accidental overwriting of a given data set by other data when
transferring data frome one data set to another.

39. Most of these errors will occur especially at the beginner's level
but will be avoided after some experience with the MANIP package. Some of
them will, however, occur even with the experienced MANIP user, and the
objective should be to reduce them to save time.
40. The best way to reduce the occurrence of errors, and the subsequent
time-consuming process of identifying and correcting these errors is a clear
organization of data and sequences.· The MANIP package allows organization
of variables in blocks as shown in Section VB. Clear organization of
operations and sequences depends, however, entirely on the extent to which
the user has analyzed his problem and defined his objective.
41. To reduce the time spent on identifying errors, some of the most
frequent causes are listed below:
1. Internal Rate of Return
The screen shows 11 no roots" or internal rate of return,< O or>
200. This might correspond to the reality, but could also be the
result of some errors in your data:
Possible Causes
(a) The weights in function 20 (Balance and switching value), where
the IRR is being calculated are wrong, i.e. all of the weights are
positive or negative.
Solution: Check operation and correct weights.
(b) The dimension used for computing revenues, investments or
operating costs are not homogereous, e.g. revenues are expressed in
single currency units while investment and operating cost are
 ANNEX 2 10

expressed in thousands or millions.

Solution:
Change values in variable, or
- Adjust weight in function 20 to take account of different
dimensions, or
- Introduce operation in sequence that would reduce or
increase dimension of variable (by multiplying it with a
constant factor corresponding to dimension).
(c) The build-up of yields or revenues has been started in the
wrong year.
Solution: Check and correct variables
(d) One of the variables used in function 20 contains
unrealistically high or low values (refer to b)
2. Variable Values
After computations, variables assume unrealistically high or low
values
Possible Causes
(a) In a predefined sequence, the results of a computation are
assigned to the same variable, that has been used as base variable
for that particular computation
Examples:
i) Multiply a variable with a constant:
X A B Y
20 Revenues X 0.01 + 0 = 20 Revenues
i i) Multiply variables with each other:
X y A B z
20 Yields X 21 Area X 0.01 + O = 20 Yields
i i i) Divide variables by each other:
X A y B z
20 Revenues X 0.01 / 21 Price + 1.00 = 20 Revenues
Solution: The above computations are perfectly acceptable,
as long as the base variables are interim variables that are
newly computed with each run of the sequence. In this case no
harm can be done.
(b) In a particular sequence, a variable could be the result of
computations of a previous sequence. If only this particular
sequence is run, without the previous sequence which gives the
variable its value, the results could be wrong.
Solution: Run the whole set of sequences and the error will
be automatically corrected.
(c) Although values were assigned to a variable, these values have
 ANNEX 2 11

disappeared without clear reason:

i. By accident an operation assigns a zero value to the
variable.
ii. The delay function has been applied and the result assigned
to the same variable. After a series of runs, the variable
value will disappear.
iii. Data are being read from another data file, but the value
of that other data file is zero. Through the transfer of
data procedure, the value copied from the other file will
overwrite the value contained in the file being operated.
Solution: In these three cases the wrong operation has
to be traced and deleted and the variable in question has to
be corrected.
3. The Programme is Interrupted and the Following Message Appears
Possible Causes
(a) Arithmetic overflow in address •••....
The computation contains an invalid arithmetical operation, most
likely caused by the corruption of the values of a variable in the
data file.
Solution:
- Exit and re-enter your MANIP file.
- List your variables on the screen or the printer until the
programme breaks off again. Identify the variable at this
point.
- Once the "bad" variable has been identified, edit this
variable by transferring the values of any variable from a
different file using Function 21 in the data processing
menu.
- Identify the sequence and operation where the "bad"
variable has been calculated and correct the operation if
there is a mathematical error.
- If you cannot identify the operation where the "bad"
variable is being created, contact Steve for advise.
(b) 02 error in address .......•.
This error occurs when the user is trying to create a variable, and
his user space is exhausted. Once this error has occurred extreme
caution is required as your data base and sequences could be
destroyed. The following procedure is recommended.
Step 1: Press ESC:@ sign appears
Step 2: Type "US-SP and give name of your programme area; i.e. 1
or Al, 2 or 2a etc. The terminal will than show whether
the user space in question is indeed used up. This can be
 ANNEX 2 12

seen by the statement:

Available pages 200
Used pages 200
If these two numbers are identical there is no space left
and the user should contact the person responsible for
supervision of project computer space in his service, who
will arrange for more space to be allocated.
Step 3: After the user space is expanded the following procedure
has to be followed. The user re-enters his data set
calls the manual operation in the processing module. There
he will read from another data set any given variable and
11
write" into the variable that has turned 11 bad 11 • After
this procedure he may return to the edit module and delete
or correct this particular variable.
Step 4: After this procedure is completed the programme can again
be operated.
Warning: The 11 bad 11 variable cannot be deleted, unless this
procedure is followed.
(c) 03 error in address •.•..•••.
This error occurs when the user tries to create an operation in a
sequence when the user space in his programme area is exhausted.
Once this error has occurred extreme caution is required as
otherwise your data base and your sequences may be destroyed. Once
the 03 error has occurred, it is impossible to use the same data
base again. If the data base and the sequences are to be salvaged
the following procedure has to be followed.
Step 1: as above
Step 2: as above
Step 3: After the user space has been expanded the following
procedure has to be followed. The bad operation will be
identified by calling each operation in the sequence
commencing with the last. The operation at which the
programme aborts is the 11 bad 11 one. After this has been
done, the user creates a new set of files using a
different generic name.
Step 4: Through the manual operation in the Data Processing
Module, the user copies all variables from the old to the
new file using identical numbers.
Step 5: All operations in all sequences of the old file are then
copied except the operation identified as 11 bad 11 •
Step 6: After all operations except the 11 bad 11 one have been
copied, new operations can be created.
Step 7: All the table formats are copied from the old file.
Step 8: After all the variables, sequences and table formats have
been copied, the old file should be deleted so as not to
 ANNEX 2 13

occupy computer space.

To avoid the problems mentioned above, check regularly that there
is enough space in your user work area (User-Statistics Command).

B. Proposals for More Efficient Data Organization

Creation of Variables
42. Efficient data organization can be best brought about if related
variables are arranged in blocks. Some of these variables, however. are
created as a result of processing of data. While it is possible to foresee
what these variables may be. using the standard procedure of entering
variables at the start of the programme may be time consuming as names and
dummy values must be entered. It is also possible as with the case of large
projects. that all variables necessary may be difficult to determine at the
start. The procedures described below show how variables may be created as
quickly as possible without having to enter values and names:

Step 1: Creation of data base.

Step 2: When the programme asks for number of variables to be entered,
type in 1. Give this variable the name you wish to assign to
your first variable.
Step 3: Enter Data Processing Module and choose Manual Operation (code
1). From the menu choose function 9 - Z = AX + B. Give the
number of your variable, assign to A and B the values 0, and
have the results assigned to variable 2.
Step 4: As variable 2 was previously not created, the computer will ask
for the name of the new variable. Type the name you wish to
give to variable 2, or type in a "dash" if you are uncertain of
the name.
Step 5: Repeat procedure described in step 3, give the number of your
first variable, i.e. 1, give the number of variables, i.e. now
2, and assign the value Oto A and B. The results should be in
variables 3 and 4. Repeat the procedure in step 4. Now already
4 variables are created.

Step 6: Repeat the procedure for the creation of the next 4, 8, 16, 32
etc .• variables. As in each case the block of variables covered
by the operation will be larger, the number of new variables
will also be larger.
Step 7: Enter the Data Editing Module and assign names and values to
the variables, as required.
Advantage. Since only variable names are being asked for, the
user can leave individual variables unused, and organise his
variables in an efficient manner. This will facilitate at a
later stage duplication of variables, identification of errors,
etc.
 ANNEX 2 14

43. Variables can also be created by transferring them from one file to
another, by using function 21 in the Data Processing Module. This function
can be effectively used, for the creation of identical variables in other
data sets, for which only the values differ. For this purpose, the user
could create a file containing the model data base, for example 50
variables. Once these 50 variables are named, the entire variable block can
be transferred to file 2, by copying them into variables 1 to 50. Then, the
same variables could be read back into file 1, and inserted into variables
51, 101, 151 etc. In this way, 150 to 200 variables can be created within a
relatively short time. After this procedure is completed, the values for
each individual variable can be entered.
44. The procedure may be followed if different data sets with identical
data structure, i.e. variable names, need to be processed. It would then
be possible to copy an existing sequence with a given 11 Displacement factor 11
thus saving time.

VI. Advantages and Limitations of MANIP in DOC Project Work

45. The use of MANIP in DOC Project Work is useful and cost effective
in the following situations:
A. Advantages

i) Experts and technicians are not certain about assumptions. In

situations where the technical experts are not certain about
parameters to be used in agricultural models, the preparation of
various financial and/or economic models would be very time
consuming. Also, if a review of a project leads to modification of
parameters, often the entire financial and economic cost, as well
as project cost need ~o be recalculated.
Using MANIP, the project cost, financial and economic analysis can
be prepared even if technical parameters are not final. Once a
decision has been made, a final computation could be carried out. A
further revision of these parameters during project reviews would
result in a simple editing of the data base in the computer, and
the up-dated analysis would be available within a short time.
ii) Assumptions need to be tested for their financial feasibility. In
situations where technical or financial assumptions need to be
tested, i.e. the same computations repeated many times, with
different parameters, the MANIP programme gives the user the
advantage of altering the parameters concerned and 11 rerunning 11 the
programme. Possible applications would be to identify minimum
prices and test the effects on financial or economic internal rates
of returns, or the effect of different loan schedules on cashflows
and financial positions of farms or enterprises.
iii) Identical models need to be calculated for different data. If the
same financial or economic models need to be prepared for different
but similiar situations, e.g., different technical parameters for
three different models which are prepared for four project
regions, the possibility of preparing one model and using it in
similar data sets can result in considerable gain of time, and thus
higher efficiency in project preparation.
 ANNEX 2 15

iv) Complex and time consuming computations can be done automatically.

Certain computations are relatively simple but also extremely time
consuming. Predefined models or computing functions can
considerably reduce the time required for these computations and
thus provide more time for substantive project preparation work.
Typical computations of these nature are:
- calculation of internal rate of return;
- calculation of loan programmes;
- phasing of variables;
- financial analysis and statements;
- project cost with price escalation;
- economic analysis using Standard Conversion Factors or /Export
Premiums;
- sensitivity and risk analysis.

Any of these computations can be done by hand, but most are very
time consuming. Consequently, the analyst might forego some
analyses altogether, due to time constraints. Well organized MANIP
packages can considerably increase the efficiency of analysis and
thus improve project analysis.

v) Numerous and similarly designed tables need to be printed. Economic

and financial analysis require the production of detailed
financial cashflows and economic cost benefit analysis. Secretarial
capacity is scarce, and the preparation of project reports always
require the typing of complex tables. The MANIP programme permits
tables to be transferred to the word processing area and edited
there. For example, one to two days are usually required for the
typing of a large table. Using a combination of MANIP and word
processing, the same table could be completed within 2 to 3 hours.

B. Limitations

i) Key to the efficient and effective use of MANIP is the preparation

of clear and well organized variables and a schedule of operations.
If this is not done, the likely result would be a loss of time in
tracing and correcting errors. Simple corrections which would
normally require minor alterations in manual calculations may take
much longer in the MANIP programme. However, if the user does not
carry out the changes in the MANIP programme and decides to
recalculate by hand, he has lost all the time previously invested.
ii) Formulation of calculation sequences requires time if a prepared
package or solution is not available. Complex computations need to
be checked step by step to ascertain that the desired calculations
are executed as intended. Manual calculation of tables may be done
faster than with the MANIP package, at least for the first set of
tables. The advantage of MANIP is demonstrated only if the
parameters for these tables are modified. Manual recalculation
 ANNEX 2 16

requires the same amount of time as for the previous table, while
in the MANIP package very little time is required to edit the data
base and to re-run pre-defined sequences.
iii) The use of MANIP (and other software packages) will remain
unattractive if the present ratio of terminals to users is not
improved and if printers are not conveniently located.
 ANNEX 2
APPENDIX 1

MAN IP

PROJECT DATA MANIPULATION PACKAGE

USER Is GU IDE

(February 1985)

Description of Functions Available in Data Processing Menu

Description: This Appendix describes all functions

available in the Data Processing Menu
of the MANIP programme.
Contents: Description of Functions Available in
Data Processing Menu.
 ANNEX 2 1
APPENDIX 1

MENU OF FUNCTIONS OF PROCESSING MENU

1. Display/print X 11. AX/Y + B
2. Rate of return on X 12. AX+ BY+ C
3. Incremental values over year zero 13. If X>O, AX+ BY+ C
4. Cumulative values of X 14. If X<O, AX+ BY+ C
5. Add X over A years 15. If X and Y>=O, AX+ BY+ C
6. Delay X by A years 16. Carry over if AX+ BY+ C<O
7. Advance X by A years 17. Depreciation on X
8. Interest on overdraft 18. Debt service on X
9. AX+ B 19. Phasing a block of variables
10. AXY + B 20. Balance and switching values
21. Read from/write to another data set
22. Run another sequence of operations
23. Print a table' using a predefined format
24. End of processing
25. Print/display a list of variable names
26. Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
FUNCTION= 1 Display/Print X
Table 1

Year 0 1 2 3-10
X= 0 10 20 30

Comment: Displays the values of a variable on the terminal screen or the

other printers without having to use the print module. It could, for
example, be used as the last operation in a calculation sequence to see the
values in the variable during the course of computations. It would thus be
possible to see whether computations are executed as intended, without
having to refer to the print or data editing module.

FUNCTION= 2 Rate of Return on X

Table 2

Year 0-1 2 3 4 5-10

X= 0 -100 -200 100 200

Rate of return= 44.7

Comment: The calculation of the rate of·return is made automatically on
incremental values of the variable over year zero. The result is printed on
the terminal screen or the other printers.
 ANNEX 2 2
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 3 Incremental Values Over Year 0

Table 3

Year 0 1-10
X= 10 20
z= 0 10
===--=---------==---
Comment: Self-explanatory.

FUNCTION= 4 Cumulative Values of X

(Option= Total Cumulative Values)
Table 4 a

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X= 0 10 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
z= 0 10 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270
-----------------------------------------------------------=============
FUNCTION= 4 Cumulative Values of X
(Option= Incremental Cumulative Values)
Table 4 b
-----------------------------------------------------------======~======
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

X= 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
z= 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 • 70 80 90 100
----===----------===--======-==---======================================
Comment: Self-explanatory.
 ANNEX 2 3
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 5 Add X Over A Years

Parameter a= 5
Table 5
===============--------------------------------
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5-8 9 10
-----------------------------------------------
X= 0 10 20 30 30 30 30 30
z= 0 0 0 0 90 0 150 30
==================--==-===---=--=====------====
Comment: Self-explanatory.

FUNCTION= 6 Delay X by A Years

Parameter a= 1
Table 6
============--------==-------===
Year 0-1 2 3 4 5-10
X = 0 10 20 30 30
Z = 0 0 10 20 30

Comment: Useful in sensitivity analysis. The value in year zero is not

affected by function. The value of year O is copied into the year(s) by
which Xis delayed.

FUNCTION= 7 Advance X by A Years

Parameter a= 1
Table 7

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5-10
X= 0 0 10 20 30 40
Z= 0 10 20 30 40 40
=====================================
Comment: Useful in sensitivity analysis. The value in year zero is not
affected by this function. The value of the last year of X is copied into
the year(s) which remain without value(s) after Xis advanced.
 ANNEX 2 4
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 8 Interest on overdraft

Parameter a= 13%
Table 8 a

Year 1 2 3 4 5 10
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CASH-FL EXCL. PR/LOSS 100 -300 250 175 175 175
PR/LOSS EXCL. INT/OD 50 50 65 45 45 45
INTEREST ON OVERDRAFT 0 0 13 0 0 0
PR/LOSS INCL. INT/OD 50 50 52 45 45 45
CASH-FLOW BALANCE 150 -250 302 220 220 220
CUMUL. CASH-FLOW BAL. 150 -100 202 422 642 1742

Table 8 b

Year 1 2 3 4 5 10
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CASH-FL EXCL. PR/LOSS 100 -150 250 175 175 175
PR/LOSS EXCL. INT/OD 50 50 65 45 45 45
INTEREST ON OVERDRAFT 0 0 0 0 0 0
PR/LOSS INCL. INT /OD 50 50 65 45 45 45
CASH-FLOW BALANCE 150 -100 315 220 220 220
CUMUL. CASH-FLOW BAL. 150 50 365 585 805 1905

Comment: Used in financial models. Cash flow deficits are assumed to be

financed by short-term credit, interest on which is charged to the following
year. Assuming that 11 cash flow balance excluding profit/loss" and "profit
and loss before interest on overdraft" are stored in two variables Y and X,
the function will calculate four new variables.
Z= Interest on overdraft;
Z+l = Profit/loss exluding interest on overdraft;
Z+2 = Cash flow balance;
Z+3 = Cash flow cumulative balance.
Cash flow deficits in a given year are automatically balanced by short term
credit (overdraft), and the interest is charged to the following year. Thus
financial statements can be automatically balanced.
 ANNEX 2 5
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 9 AX+ B
Parameter a= 0.1
Parameter b = 0
Table 9

Year 0 1 2 3-10
X = 0 10 20 30
Z= 0 1 2 3

Comment: Useful for· calculating cost or revenues by multiplying physical

quantities (units, tons, etc.) with a constant unit price a.

FUNCTION= 10 AXY + B
Parameter a= 0.1
Parameter b = 0
Table 10

Year 0 1 2 3 4-10
X= 0 10 20 30 30
y = 0 10 20 30 40
z= 0 10 40 90 120

Comment: Useful for calculating values that are the product of two
different time-rows, e.g. area and yields per hectare. Parameter a could
represent a unit price or determine the scale of the result.
 ANNEX 2 6
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 11 AX/Y + B
Parameter a= 2
Parameter b = O

Tab le 11
=============================-==
Year 0 1 2 3 4-10
X= 0 10 20 30 30
Y= 0 10 20 30 40
Z= 0 2 2 2 2

Comment: Self-explanatory. See also Function 10.

FUNCTION= 12 AX+ BY+ C

Parameter a= 2
Parameter b = 2
Parameter c = O
Table 12

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5-10
-------------------------------------------
X= 0 10 20 30 30 30
y = 0 0 10 20 30 40
z= 0 20 60 100 120 140

Comment: Especially useful if series of corresponding pairs of variables

are to be added, e.g. Crop 1 to Crop 10 in Crop Model A and Crop 1 to Crop
10 in Crop Model 3. Parameters a and b could stand for the number of
hectares of each of the two crop models.
 ANNEX 2 7
APPENDIX l

FUNCTION= 13 If X > 0, AX+ BY+ C

Parameter a= 1
Parameter b = 1
Parameter c = O
Table 13

Year 0 1 2 3 4-10
X= 0 -10 20 -30 40
y = 0 10 20 -30 40
z= 0 0 40 0 80

Comment: Permits selection of positive values and to effect computations

only with these selected values.

FUNCTION= 14 If X < 0, AX+ BY+ C

Parameter a= -1
Parameter b = 0
Parameter c = 0
Table 14

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5-10
-------------------------------------------
X= 0 0 -100 -200 100 200
y = 0 10 20 30 40 40
z= 0 0 100 200 0 0

Comment: Permits selection of negative variable values and to effect

computations only with these selected values: e.g. if Xis the balance of
labour use, the function could be used to calculate hired labour for the
years with labour deficit {Xis in man-days, and parameters a= -1, b = O
and c = 0). The result in variable Z will be the hired labour in man-days.
 ANNEX 2 8
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 15 If X and Y >= 0, AX+ BY+ C

Parameter a= 1
Parameter b = 1
Parameter c = 0
Table 15

Year 0 1 2 3 4-10

X= 0 -10 20 -30 30
y = 0 10 20 -30 40
z= 0 0 40 0 70

Comment: Permits selection of positive values from two variables, on

condition that values in the two variables assume positive values in the
same year. If the selection should be for negative values, reversal of the
sign beforehand would be required (with Function 9).

FUNCTION= 16 Carry over if AX+ BY+ C < 0

Parameter a= 1
Parameter b = -1
Parameter c = 0
Table 16

Year 0 1 2-10
------------------------
X= 10 16 20
y -· 12 12 12
z= 0 2 8

Comment: To carry over results from one year to the next year if the sum of
two variables is negative. For example, if Xis consumption and Y production
of a crop, the function will calculate the shortfall if the result is
positive, and carry over the difference to the next year, if the result is
negative.
 ANNEX 2 9
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 17 Depreciation on X
Useful life= 10 years

Table 17

=============================================================================================
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASSET VALUE 0 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DEP.VALUES 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

CURRENT VALUES 0 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

=============================================================================================
Comment: Calculates straight-line depreciation on asset values stored in a
variable, as well as current book value (at end of year, after depreciation)
for a given life of the asset.
 ANNEX 2 10
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 18 Debt Service on X

The loan function allows the choice of the following options:
(i) Annual amounts to be treated as separate or one loan
(ii) Interest rate
(iii) Grace period
(iv) Repayment period
(v) Repayment as equal instalments (inclusive of interest)
or equal capital instalments
An updated form of this function is under preparation which will
allow different grace periods for repayment of principal and interest. The
loans are assumed to be disbursed at the beginning of the year and
reimbursed at the end of the year. If the loan is disbursed over several
years, the length of the grace period (if applicable) must cover the
disbursement period so that repayment commences after the last loan has been
disbursed.
Table 18 a
Interest rate = 10%
Grace period = 2 years - interest paid during grace period
Repayment period= 5 years - equal capital instalments
======---===========-=--------=============-------==========================
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000
LOAN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL DEBT SERVICE 0 200 200 600 560 520 480 440 0
INT. COMP. 0 200 200 200 160 120 80 40 0
OUTSTANDING LOAN 0 2000 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0 0
---------===-===--------------======-=------------==========================
Table 18 b
Interest rate = 10%
Grace Period = 2 years - interest paid during grace period
Repayment period= 5 years - equal instalments
---------=-=------------------==-==---------------====================--===
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-20
LOAN O 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL DEBT SERVICE O 200 200 528 528 528 528 528 0

INT. COMP. 0 200 200 200 167 131 92 48 0

OUTSTANDING LOAN O 2000 2000 1672 1312 916 480 0 0

--------------------------------------------------============-=======---==
 ANNEX 2 11
APPENDIX 1

Table 18 c

Interest rate = 10%

Grace period = 2 years - interest NOT paid during grace period
Repayment period= 5 years - equal capital instalments
Annual amounts treated as separate loans

================·=======================================================================
Vear 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOAH 0 2000 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL DEBT SERVICE 0 0 0 726 1041 968 895 823 266 0

INT. COMP. 0 0 0 242 315 242 169 97 24 0

OUTSTANDING LOAN 0 2200 3520 3146 2420 1694 968 242 0 0

=============================================-==========================================

Table 18 d
Interest rate = 10%
Grace period = 2 years - interest NOT paid during grace period
Repayment period= 5 years - equal instalments
Annual amounts treated as separate loans

========================================================================================
Vear 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOAN 0 2000 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL DEBT SERVICE 0 0 0 638 958 958 958 958 319 0

INT. COMP. 0 0 0 242 323 260 190 113 29 0

OUTSTANDING LOAH 0 2200 3520 3234 2599 1902 1134 290 0 0

========================================================================================
Comment: The calculation of the interest component and the outstanding
amount (at year end, after payment of the corresponding annual instalment)
is optional.
 ANNEX 2 12
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 19 Phasing a Block of Variables

Table 19 a
PHASING - CONSTANT WITHOUT PROJECT SITUATION
-----------------------------------------------------------. ----------------
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WITH PROJECT 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
YIELD
NO. OF HA (SUPPLEMENTARY) 0.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 o.o 0.0 0.0
HA OF YEAR 1 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
HA OF YEAR 2 20.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 60.0
HA OF YEAR 3 20.0 20.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
, RESULTS - CONSTANT W/0 50.0 55.0 70.0 95.0 120.0 140.0 150.0
============================================================================

Table 19 b
PHASING - NON-CONSTANT WITHOUT PROJECT SITUATION
=================--========--=====~=========================================
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
YIELD WITH PROJECT 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
YIELD WITHOUT PROJECT 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
NO. OF HA (SUPPLEMENTARY) 0.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOT. YEAR 1 HA 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
TOT. YEAR 2 HA 20.0 22.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 60.0
TOT. YEAR 3 HA 20.0 22.0 24.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
RESULTS - TOTAL VALUES 50.0 59.0 74.0 95.0 120.0 140.0 150.0
INCR-YR 1 HA 0.0 4.0 8.0 13.0 18.0 18.0 18.0
INCR-YR 2 HA 0.0 0.0 6.0 16.0 26.0 36.0 36.0
INCR-YR 3 HA 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 16.0 26.0 36.0
RESULTS - INCREMENTAL VAL 0.0 4.0 14.0 35.0 60.0 80.0 90.0
---------------------------------------------------------------=------====--
 ANNEX 2 13
APPENDIX 1

Comment: The function calculates aggregated values of a time series (unit

variable) phased in by a certain number of units each year (phasing
variable) over a certain number of years (from year 1) defined by the user.
The function has two options:
Without project situation is constant, represented by values in
year zero of the unit variable (see table 19 a).
- Without project situation is not constant, two unit variables are
necessary, one for with project and one for without project
situations. On option, the results of the calculation will be
either total values or incremental values (over without project
situation (see table 19 b).
The number of units stored in the phasing variable can be either total or
incremental. If they are incremental (i.e. incremental over the previous
year), any value stored in year zero will be ignored.

Note: The function calculates final results but for demonstration purposes,
production corresponding to each group of hectares has been
calculated.
 ANNEX 2 14
APPENDIX 1

FUNCTION= 20 Balance and Switching Values

Table 20 a
Simple Balance

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5-10
----------------------------------------
X= 10 20 20 20 20 20
X= 0 10 20 30 30 30
y = 0 0 10 20 30 40
BALANCE 10 30 30 30 20 10
----------------------------------------

Table 20 b

Balance and Switching Values

Year 0 1 2 3 4-10

GROSS REVENUES 8000 11000 13000 16000 18000

INVESTMENT COST 0 20000 0 0 0
OPERATING COST 4000 5000 6000 6000 6000
BALANCE 4000 -14000 7000 10000 12000
Rate of return= 32.0
Switching values for opportunity cost of capital = 10.0 %
PRESENT VALUES SWITCHING VALUES
PER CENT
PROJECT GROSS REVENUES 98603. 71 -20.2
PROJECT INVESTMENT COST -18181.82 109.4
PROJECT OPERATING COST -35958.31 55.3
WITHOUT PROJECT BALANCE -24578.27 80.9
NET BALANCE 19885.31
Comment: It is possible to specify a list containing up to 50 variables in
one operation. Each variable will be multiplied with a constant factor,
usually 1 or -1, but other factors are possible. The factors will not
modify the value stored in the variable, but be reflected only in the
results. This function is useful for many computations: to calculate
totals, contingencies, economic values and sensitivity analysis. The
internal rate of return is calculated on the incremental values of the
balance. Without project balance is the projection over the full period of
the value in year O balance.
 ANNEX 2 15
APPENDIX l

FUNCTION= 21 Read From/Write to Another Data Set

This function enables the user to transfer variables (names and
values) from one data set to another. In the destination data set, the
copied variables can be either inserted into a pre-defined position, or be
appended after the last defined variable. This function is useful, for
instance in a project with several project areas, each one having several
components and requiring individual economic/financial analysis. A data set
could be created for each project area and the results of computation from
each of the files could be transferred to a central file for calculation of
aggregate economic analysis for the entire project.
This function would be useful in the following situations:
a) Results of different computations, (project cost, crop projections,
farm models) which would be stored in different data sets, and merged
for final economic analysis.
b) One data set with a set of pre-defined variables and sequences would
be used to process sets of identical variables with different values
stored in different data sets. Useful for calculating farm models
with different variable values, thus saving time and computer space.
c) For creation of identical variable groups within one data set. The
first group of the variables would be created in the first data set,
and then transferred to a second data set. From these the same olock
of variables can be tranferred to the first data set to predefined
positions. This saves considerable time in creation of variable
names. (Note: Copying a block of variables within a data set is not
advisable, as it is considered a potentially risky operation).

FUNCTION= 22 Run Another Sequence of Operations

This function enables the user to run several sequences of
operations with one command. This can be done by inserting the number of a
predefined sequence within a sequence of operations. After the called
sequence has been executed the calling sequence will continue execution of
defined operations.
FUNCTION= 23 Print a Table Using a Predefined Format
In the manual mode, this function is not shown on the menu. It
allows for the printing of table~ corresponding9 for example 9 to the results
of calculations, to be included in a sequence.
FUNCTION= 24 End of Processing
This function returns control the the Data Processing Menu. It also
terminates the creation of new operations in a sequence currently being
defined.
FUNCTION= 25 Print/Display a List of Variable Names
This option allows the user to print or display the names of a block
of variables or all variables for example when editing or defining a
sequence of operations. Once the list has been printed or displayed, the
menu of functions reappears on the screen, and the user can continue the
 ANNEX 2 16
APPENDIX 1

sequence.
FUNCTION= 26 Data Editing (correcting headings or variables)
This option gives the user access to the data editing module where
headings, variable names and values can be altered. Variables can also be
added or deleted and the life of the project changed. After the user has
carried out the editing required, the menu of functions reappears on the
screen and the user can continue defining or editing a sequence, or
performing operations (in 1 manual 1 mode).
 ANNEX 2
APPENDIX 2

MAN IP

PROJECT DATA MANIPULATION PACKAGE

USER Is GU IDE
(February 1985)

Sample Runs of MANIP

Description: This appendix gives the "screen" picture of the interaction

between user and the MANIP programme.

Contents: Page
1. Start with Previously Stored Data. 1

2. Start with a New Data 2

3. Listing of Variables. 5

4. Changing the Data. 6

5. Processing the Data. 8

6. Printing Tables. 18
 ANNEX 2 1
APPENDfX 2

START WITH PREVIOUSLY STORED DATA

@MAN IP
****** MAN IP ******
PROJECT DATA MANIPULATION PACKAGE
VERSION 7.1 - COPYRIGHT FAO INVESTMENT CENTER - ROME
Do you want a general description of the program? (Y or N)
N
Do you want to use data which have previously been stored
in your set of personal files?
y
Give the generic name of your files (1 to 14 characters)
MS-CAM
Are you absolutely certain that the name is correct?
y
MS-CAM-W:TEXT is to be used as OUTPUTFILE
Note: The old content of that file is erased at the start of a new run
Press CR key when you want to continue

CAMEROUN - PROJET DE DEVELOPPEMENT DU CENTRE-SUD

Current data set is ANALYSE ECON. ET FINANCIERE

Code= 1 Data processing

Code= 2 Data editing (correcting headings or variables)-------------
Code= 3 Data listing (producing tables of variables) 1 Main menu 1
Code= 4 Print/display a list of variable names -----------
Code= 5 Display MANIP user's guide
Code= 6 Exit MANIP

Enter a number between 1 and 6

 ANNEX 2 2
APPENDIX 2

START WITH A NEW DATA

@MAN IP
****** MAN IP ******
PROJECT DATA MANIPULATION PACKAGE
VERSION 7.1 - COPYRIGHT FAO INVESTMENT CENTER - ROME
Do you want a general description of the program? (Y or N)
N
Do you want to use data which have previously been stored
in your set of personal files?
N
Before entering a new data set you have to give an unused
name with 1 to 14 characters for the files where your
data will be stored automatically
Give the generic name of your files (1 to 14 characters)
SAMPLE-RUN
Are you absolutely certain that the name is correct?
y
SAMPLE-RUN-W:TEXT"
11
is to be used as OUTPUTFILE
Press CR key when you want to continue
Input of data
Initial input of data l
You are starting with a new data set
Enter the following information
Project name (max 50 chrs) ?
l-----------------------
SAMPLE RUN
Data set name (max 30 chrs) ?
RICE
Currency name (max 10 chrs)?
000 B
Project life ?
Enter a number between 1 and 50
20
How many variables do you intend to enter now?
Enter a number between O andl500
3

Var. No 1 - Name of variable (max 25 chrs) ?

RICE YIELD
RICE YIELD
ALTERNATIVES OF ENTERING VARIABLE VALUES
Code= 1 Actual values
Code= 2 Linear interpolation
Code = 3 Percentages
Code = 4 Compound rate
Code= 5 S-curve
 ANNEX 2 3
APPENDIX 2

Enter a number between 1 and 5

2
Value of variable RICE YIELD in year O?
1.1
Which year will this value change?
Enter a number between 1 and 20
2 Generating data using l
Until which year will the values be changing?
Enter a number between 2 and 20
l-----------------------
linear interpolation

7
Value of variable RICE YIELD in year 7 ?
2.2
RICE YIELD
0 1.1 1 1.1 2 1.3 3 1. 5 4 1. 7
5 1.8 6 2.0 7 2.2 8 2.2 9 2.2
10 2.2 11 2.2 12 2.2 13 2.2 14 2.2
15 2.2 16 2.2 17 2.2 18 2.2 19 2.2
20 2.2
Are the values correct?
y

Var. No 2 - Name of variable (max 25 chrs) ?

RICE AREA
RICE AREA
ALTERNATIVES OF ENTERING VARIABLE VALUES
Code = 1 Actual values
Code = 2 Linear interpolation
Code = 3 Percentages
Code = 4 Compound rate
Code= 5 S-curve
Code= 6 By reference
Enter a number between 1 and 6
1
Which year do the values reach a constant level ?
(If never, enter 20)
Enter a number between 0 and 20
3
Value of variable RICE AREA in year 0 = ?
3
Value of variable RICE AREA in year 1 = ?
4.5
Value of variable RICE AREA in year 2 ?
5
Value of variable RICE AREA in year 3 = ?
6
 ANNEX 2 4
APPENDIX 2

RICE AREA
0 3.0 1 4.5 2 5.0 3 6.0 4 6.0
5 6.0 6 6.0 7 6.0 8 6.0 9 6.0
10 6.0 11 6.0 12 6.0 13 6.0 14 6.0
15 6.0 16 6.0 17 6.0 18 6.0 19 6.0
20 6.0
Are the values correct ?
y

Var. No 3 - Name of variable (max 25 chrs) ?

RICE - COST/HA
RICE - COST/HA
ALTERNATIVES OF ENTERING VARIABLE VALUES
Code= 1 Actual values
Code= 2 Linear interpolation
Code= 3 Percentages
Code= 4 Compound rate
Code= 5 S-curve
Code= 6 By reference
Enter a number between 1 and 6
1
Which year do the values reach a constant level ?
(If never, enter 20)
Enter a number between O and 20
4
Value of variable RICE COST/HA in year 0 = ?
75
Value of variable RICE COST /HA in year 1 = ?
90
Value of variable RICE COST/HA in year 2 = ?
120
Value of variable RICE COST/HA in year 3 = ?
140
Value of variable RICE COST/HA in year 4 = ?
150
RICE - COST/HA
0 75.0 1 90.0 2 120.0 3 140.0 4 150.0
5 150.0 6 150.0 7 150.0 8 150.0 9 150.0
10 150.0 11 150.0 12 150.0 13 150.0 14 150.0
15 150.0 16 150.0 17 150.0 18 150.0 19 150.0
20 150.0
Are the values correct ?
y

1-------------------
Main menu follows l
 ANNEX 2 5
APPEND IX 2

LISTING OF VARIABLES
Code 4 of Main Menu
Listing of variables
Code= 1 All variables
Code= 2 Block of variables
Code= 3 No more listing
Enter a number between 1 and 3
1
You have the following options
Code= 1 Terminal CRT
Code= 2 Line-printer (132 chrs/1)
Code= 3 HP-printer (227 chrs/1)
Code= 4 Outputfile (227 chrs/1)
Enter a number between 1 and 4
1
Variables with their numbers
1 RICE YIELD 2 RICE AREA
3 RICE - COST/HA Press CR key when you want to continue
Listing of variables
Code= 1 All variables
Code= 2 Block of variables
Code= 3 No more listing
Enter a number between 1 and 3
3

SAMPLE RUN
Current data set is RICE
Code= 1 Data processing

j---------- j
Code= 2 Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
Code= 3 Data listing (producing tables of variables) Back to
Code= 4 Print/display a list of variable names Main Menu
Code= 5 Display MANIP user's guide
Code= 6 Exit MANIP
 ANNEX 2 6
APPENDIX 2

CHANGING THE DATA

DATA EDITING
Code 2 of Main Menu
Code 1 Headings
Code= 2 Variable name
Code= 3 Variable values
Code= 4 Delete a variable
Code= 5 Add new variables
Code= 6 Change project life
Code= 7 No more editing
Enter a number between 1 and 7
3
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 3
1
RICE YIELD
0 1.1 1 1.1 2 1.3 3 1. 5 4 1. 7
5 1.8 6 2.0 7 2.2 8 2.2 9 2.2
10 2.2 11 2.2 12 2.2 13 2.2 14 2.2
15 2.2 16 2.2 17 2.2 18 2.2 19 2.2
20 2.2
Code= 1 Alter individual values
Code= 2 Enter another time series
Code= 3 No more editing
Code= 4 Change number of dee. digits in display (Current= 1)
Enter a number between 1 and 4
1
Year=?
Enter a number between O and 20
8
Old value= 2.20000
Correct value=?
2.3
Should this value be repeated for the following years?
y
 ANNEX 2 7
APPENDIX 2

RICE YIELD
0 1.1 1 1.1 2 1.3 3 1.5 4 1. 7
5 1.8 6 2.0 7 2.2 8 2.3 9 2.3
10 2.3 11 2.3 12 2.3 13 2.3 14 2.3
15 2.3 16 2.3 17 2.3 18 2.3 19 2.3
20 2.3
Code 1 Alter individual values
Code 2 Enter another time series
Code = 3 No more editing
Code = 4 Change number of dee. digits in display (Current ::: 1)
Enter a number between 1 and 4
3

DATA EDITING
Code = 1 Headings
Code = 2 Variable name
Code = 3 Variable values
Code = 4 Delete a variable
Code = 5 Add new variables
Code= 6 Change project life
Code= 7 No more editing
Enter a number between 1 and 7
7

SAMPLE RUN
Current data set is RICE
Code = 1 Data processing
Code 2 Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
Code
Code
= 3
= 4
Data listing (producing tables of variables)
Print/display a list of variable names 1Main to 1
Back Menu
Code = 5 Display MANIP user's guide ----------
Code = 6 Exit MANIP
Enter a number between 1 and 6
 ANNEX 2 8
APPENDIX 2

PROCESSING THE DATA

DATA PROCESSING
Code 1 of Main Menu
Current data set is :
Project = SAMPLE RUN
Data set= RICE
Currency= 000 B
Code = 1
Code = 2
Code = 3
Code = 4
Manual operation
Define a sequence of operations
Print/display the definition of a sequence
Edit a pre-defined sequence of operations
l Two modes:(manual)
- direct
- programmes (de-
fine sequence)
l
Code = 5 Run a pre-defined sequence of operations --------------=---~
Code = 6 Print list/names of pre-defined sequences
Code = 7 End of processing
Enter a number between 1 and 7
2

This is your sequence No. 1 to be defined

l_::~===-~=~~~=-==~~=~==-1
You have two options :
1 : Copy an existing sequence
2: Define a new sequence
Enter a number between 1 and 2
2
Give a name to the sequence (max 25 chrs)
RICE
In the following list, X and Y refer to code number of variables
and A, Band C to parameters
Operations 3 to 7 and 9 to 12 are on blocks of variables, (Xis a block,
Y is either a block or a single variable)

1. Display/Print X 11. AX/Y + B

2. Rate of return on X 12. AX+ BY+ C
3. Incremental values over year 0 13. If X > 0, AX+ BY+ C
4. Cumulative values of X 14. If X < 0, AX+ BY+ C
5. Add X over A years 15. If X and Y >= 0, AX+ BY+ C
6. Delay X by A years 16. Carry over if AX+ BY+ C < O
7. Advance X by A years 17. Depreciation on X
8. Interest on overdraft 18. Debt service on X
9. AX+ B 19. Phasing a block of variables
10. AXY + B 20. Balance & switching values
21. Read from/write to another data set
22. Run another sequence of operations
23. Print a table using a predefined format
24. End of processing
25. Print/display a list of variable names
26. Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
t

Menu of available operations 1

1------------------------------
 ANNEX 2 9
APPENDIX 2

Operation No. 1 in the sequence Code ?

10
Selected operation= AXY + B
Variable X
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined 3
1
Variable Y
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 3
2
Number of variables in the X block?
Enter a number between 1 and 3
1
Should Y be treated as a single variable?
y
Parameter A=?
1
Parameter B =?
0
The result will be stored in variable Z
No. of variable Z =? (Highest defined= 3)
Enter a number between 1 andl500
4
Name of variable No 4 (max 25 chrs) ?
PROD (ANNUAL MODE)
AXY + B
X = 1 RICE YIELD
Y = 2 RICE AREA
Parameter A= 1.00
Parameter B = 0.00
Result in variable No. 4 prod (annual mode)
Is this correct?
y

No. 1 in the sequence

Selected operation No. 10
AXY + B

First operation defined 1

X = 1 RICE YIELD
Y = 2 RICE AREA
Parameter A= 1.00 1-------------------------
Parameter B = 0.00
Result in variable No. 4 prod (annual mode)
Press CR key when you want to continue
You may have 49 more operations in the seq.
In the following list, X and Y refer to code number of variables
and A, Band C to parameters
Operations 3 to 7 and 9 to 12 are on blocks of variables, (Xis a block,
Y is either a block or a single variable)
 ANNEX 2 10
APPENDIX 2

1. Display/Print X 11. AX/Y + B

2. Rate of return on X 12. AX+ BY+ C
3. Incremental values over year 0 13. If X > O, AX+ BY+ C
4. Cumulative values of X 14. If X < 0, AX+ BY+ C
5. Add X over A years 15. If X and Y >= 0, AX+ BY+ C
6. Delay X by A years 16. Carry over if AX+ BY+ C < 0
7. Advance X by A years 17. Depreciation on X
8. Interest on overdraft 18. Debt service on X
9. AX+ B 19. Phasing a block of variables
10. AXY + B 20. Balance & switching values
21. Read from/write to another data set
22. Run another sequence of operations
23. Print a table using a predefined format
24. End of processing
25. Print/display a list of variable names
26. Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
+

Menu of available operations 1

1------------------------------
Operation No. 2 in the sequence : Code=?
19
NOTICE: This routine calculates aggregated values of
a group of time series (unit variables, in one block)
- maximum size of block is 50 -
phased in by a certain number of units year by year (phasing variable}.
There are two options :
1 Without project situation is constant, represented by year O values :
Only one block of unit variables is required, results are TOTAL values
2 - Without project situation is not constant. Two blocks of unit variables
are required, for with and without project respectively.
On option, the results are either TOTAL or INCREMENTAL
It is assumed that unit and phasing variables are already part of the
data set. If not, you should enter these variables now
Are any of the required variables missing in your data set?
N
Is WITHOUT PROJECT situation constant?
y
FIRST unit variable
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 4
1
LAST unit variable
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 4
1
 ANNEX 2 11
APPENDIX 2

Variables to be aggregated No. Name

1 RICE YIELD
Phasing variable
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 4
2

Phasing data are in variable No. 2 RICE AREA

Code= 1 Number of units is TOTAL
Code= 2 Number of units is INCREMENTAL
Enter a number between 1 and 2
1
Number of units is total
Phasing period (max 20 years)=?
Enter a number between 1 and 20
3
Phasing over years 1 to 3
The results will be stored in a block of 1 consecutive variables
First variable in the block
5
The result will be stored in variables :
5
Is this correct?
y
Variable Nq. 5
Name of variable No 5 (max 25 chrs) ?
PROD (PHASING MODE)
Second operation defined 1
No. 2 in the sequence
Selected operation No. 19
Phasing a block of variables
l--------------------------
Unit variables
1 RICE YIELD
Phasing data in variable No. 2 RICE AREA
TOTAL over years 1 to 3
Result stored in variables
5 PROD (PHASING MODE)
Press CR key when you want to continue
You may have 48 more operat i ans i, 1 the seq.
In the following list, X and Y refer to code number of variables
and A, Band C to parameters
Operations 3 to 7 and 9 to 12 are on blocks of variables, (Xis a block,
Y is either a block or a single variable)
 ANNEX 2 12
APPENDIX 2

1. Display/Print X 11. AX/Y + B

2. Rate of return on X 12. AX+ BY+ C
3. Incremental values over year O 13. If X > 0, AX+ BY+ C
4. Cumulative values of X 14. If X < 0, AX+ BY+ C
5. Add X over A years 15. If X and Y >= 0, AX+ BY+ C
6. Delay X by A years 16. Carry over if AX+ BY+ C < 0
7. Advance X by A years 17. Depreciation on X
8. Interest on overdraft 18. Debt service on X
9. AX+ B 19. Phasing a block of variables
10. AXY + B 20. Balance & switching values
21. Read from/write to another data set
22. Run another sequence of operations
23. Print a table using a predefined format
24. End of processing
25. Print/display a list of variable names
26. Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
+
Menu of available operations l
l------------------------------
Operation No. 3 in the sequence: Code=?
24
You have now stored sequence No. 1
l------------------------·---
End of sequence definition ·1
It includes 2 operations
Press CR key when you want to continue
DATA PROCESSING
Current data set is :
Project = SAMPLE RUN
Data set= RICE
Currency= 000 B
Code = 1 Manual operation
Code = 2 Define a sequence of operations
Code = 3 Print/display the definition of a sequence
Code =4 Edit a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code =5 Run a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code =6 Print list/names of pre-defined sequences
Code =7 End of processing
Enter a number between 1 and 7
3
Enter number of sequence
l----------------r
List sequence
---------------
Enter a number between 0 and 1
1
RICE Is it OK ?
y
SELECT PRINTER
You have the following options
 ANNEX 2 13
APPENDIX 2

Code= 1 Terminal CRT

Code= 2 Line-printer (132 chrs/1)
Code= 3 HP-printer (227 chrs/1)
Code= 4 Outputfile (227 chrs/1)
Enter a number between 1 and 4
1
Sequence of operations No 1 RICE
1 : Selected operation =AXY + B
X = 1 RICE YIELD
Y = 2 RICE AREA
Parameter A= 1.00
Parameter B = 0.00
Result in variable No~ 4 prod (annual mode)
Press CR key when you want to continue

2: Selected operation =Phasing a block of variables

Unit variables
1 RICE YIELD
Phasing data in variable No. 2 RICE AREA
TOTAL over years 1 to 3
Result stored in variables
5 prod (phasing mode)

DATA PROCESSING
Current data set is :
Project = SAMPLE RUN
Data set= RICE
Currency= 000 B
Code= 1 Manual operation
Code= 2 Define a sequence of operations
Code= 3 Print/display the definition of a sequence
Code= 4 Edit a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code= 5 Run a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code= 6 Print list/names of pre-defined sequences
Code= 7 End of processing
Enter a number between 1 and 7
4 Modify sequence l·
Enter number of sequence l -----------------
Enter a number between O and 1
1
RICE Is it OK ?
y
 ANNEX 2 14
APPENDIX 2

RICE
The sequence includes 2 operations
Code 1 Delete
Code 2 Add/insert
Code 3 Modify
Code= 4 Change seq name
Code= 5 End of editing
Enter a number between 1 and 5
2
Sequential number of the operation AFTER which to insert an op.

Enter a number between O and 2

2

In the following list, X and Y refer to code number of variables

and A, Band C to parameters
Operations 3 to 7 and 9 to 12 are on blocks of variables, (Xis a block,
Y is either a block or a single variable)
1. Display/Print X 11. AX/Y + B
2. Rate of return on X 12. AX+ BY+ C
3. Incremental values over year 0 13. If X > 0, AX+ BY+ C
4. Cumulative values of X 14. If X < 0, AX+ BY+ C
5. Add X over A years 15. If X and Y >= 0, AX+ BY+ C
6. Delay X by A years 16. Carry over if AX+ BY+ C < 0
7. Advance X by A years 17. Depreciation on X
8. Interest on overdraft 18. Debt service on X
9. AX+ B 19. Phasing a block of variables
10. AXY + B 20. Balance & switching values
21. Read from/write to another data set
22. Run another sequence of operations
23. Print a table using a predefined format
24. End of processing
25. Print/display a list of variable names
26. Data editing (correcting headings or variables)
+

Menu of available operations l

l------------------------------
Operation No. 3 in the sequence : Code=?
9
 ANNEX 2 15
APPENDIX 2

Selected operation= AX+ B

Variable X
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 5
5
Number of variables in the X block?
1
Parameter A=?
185
Parameter B =?
0
The result will be stored in variable Z
No. of variable Z =? (Highest defined= 5)

Watch what you are doing! l

y

6
ILLEGAL NUMBER SYNTAX
Name of variable No 6 (max 25 chrs) ?
l---------------------------
PROD VALUE (PH)
AX+ B
X = 5 prod (phasing mode)
Parameter A =185.00 l
Third operation now in the sequence
-------------------------------------
l
Parameter B = 0.00
Result in variable No. 6 prod value (ph)
Is this correct?
y

RICE
The sequence includes 3 operations
Code= 1 Delete
Code= 2 Add/insert
Code= 3 Modify
Code= 4 Change Seq Name
Code= 5 End of editing
Enter a number between 1 and 5

j-------------------------- j
4
RICE Checking the name of the
Do you want to change seq name? sequence without editing
N

RICE
The sequence includes 3 operations
Code= 1 Delete
Code= 2 Add/insert
Code= 3 Modify
Code= 4 Change Seq Name
Code 5 End of editing
Enter a number between 1 and 5
5

DATA PROCESSING
Current data set is:
Project = SAMPLE RUN
Data set= RICE
Currency= 000 B
 ANNEX 2 16
APPENDIX 2

Code = 1 Manual operation

Code = 2 Define a sequence of operations
Code = 3 Print/display the definition of a sequence
Code 4 Edit a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code = 5 Run a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code = 6 Print list/names of pre-defined sequences
Code = 7 End of processing

The calculation is performed 1

Enter a number between 1 and 7
5
Enter number of sequence 1------------------------------
Enter a number between O and 1
1
RICE Is it OK ?
y
The sequence of operations stored in RICE
is being performed
Do you want to suppress listing of operations?
y

DATA PROCESSING
Current data set is:
Project = SAMPLE RUN
Data set= RICE
Currency= 000 B
Code= 1 Manual operation
Code= 2 Define a sequence of operations
Code= 3 Print/display the definition of a sequence
Code= 4 Edit a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code= 5 Run a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code= 6 Print list/names of pre-defined sequences
Code= 7 End of processing
Enter a number between 1 and 7
6
SELECT PRINTER
j
You have the following options
Code= 1
Code= 2
Code= 3
Terminal CRT
Line-printer (132 chrs/1)
HP-printer (227 chrs/1)
l---------------------
Which sequences are
already defined?

Code= 4 Outputfile (227 chrs/1)

Enter a number between 1 and 4
1
LIST OF SEQUENCES OF OPERATIONS IN FILE
1 RICE
Press CR key when you want to continue
DATA PROCESSING
Current data set is :
Project = SAMPLE RUN
Data set= RICE
 ANNEX 2 17
APPENDIX 2

Currency = 000 B

Code= 1 Manual operation

Code= 2 Define a sequence of operations
Code= 3 Print/display the definition of a sequence
Code= 4 Edit a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code= 5 Run a pre-defined sequence of operations
Code= 6 Print list/names of pre-defined sequences
Code= 7 End of processing
Enter a number between 1 and 7
7

Main menu follows l

l-------------------
 ANNEX 2 18
APPENDIX 2

PRINTING TABLES
DATA LISTING
Code 3 of main menu
DATA LISTING OPTIONS
Code = 1 Standard output of all/block of data
Code 2 Produce a table using a previously defined format
Code = 3 Define a table format
Code = 4 Print/display previously defined format
Code= 5 Edit a previously defined format
Code= 6 Print List/Names of defined formats
Code= 7 End of output operations
Enter a number between 1 and 7
3

DEFINITION OF TABLE FORMAT No 1

l-~=~~~~~~-~-~~~~=-l
You have two options :
1 : Copy an existing table format
2: Define a new format
Enter a number between 1 and 2
2
Where is the table to be printed?
You have the following options :
Code= 1 Terminal CRT
Code= 2 Line-printer (132 chrs/1)
Code= 3 HP-printer (227 chrs/1)
Code= 4 Outputfile (227 chrs/1)
Enter a number between 1 and 4
1
Do you want a sub-title for the table?
y
Enter the sub-title (max 80 chrs)
RICE PRODUCTION - PHASING
Do you want to assign a number to the table?
y
Table No.=?
1
You may include up to 50 variables in the table
Data printing options
Code= 1 Block of variables
Code= 2 Selected variables
Enter a number between 1 and 2
2
Do you want a list of variables?
N

How many variables do you want to enter?

3
Variable to be in line 1 of the table
Variable number= 7
 ANNEX 2 19
APPENDIX 2

Highest variable defined 6

1
1 RICE YIELD 01(?
y
Variable to be in line 2 of the table
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 6
2
2 RICE AREA 01(?
y
Variable to be in line 3 of the table
Variable number=?
Highest variable defined= 6
5 .
5 PROD (PHASING MODE) OK?
y
Enter the number of years (<=21) to be printed
Enter a number between 1 and 21
21
All years to be printed
Is it correct ?Y
Do you want scaling of your data?
N

How many decimals do you want to be printed?

Enter a number between O and 8
1
Do you want totals to be printed for each line?
N

Do you want any blank lines in the table?

N

LI ST /ED IT FORMAT No. 1

You have the following options :
Code= 1 Terminal CRT
Code= 2 Line-printer (132 chrs/1)
Code= 3 HP-printer (227 chrs/1)
Code= 4 Outputfile (227 chrs/1)
Enter a number between 1 and 4
1
 ANNEX 2 20
APPENDIX 2

This table has been given No. 1

Sub-title of the table:
RICE PRODUCTION - PHASING
The table will be presented on the CRT
The data will be printed with 1 decimals
All years to be printed
Variables to be printed
Variables with their numbers
1 1 RICE YIELD 2 2 RICE AREA
3 5 prod (phasing mode)
Press CR key when you want to continue
Do you want to change some format specifications?
y

1 Change table No. Modifying the definition 1

2 Change sub-title of a table
3 Change printer 1--------------------------
4 Change scale factor
5 Change number of decimals
6 Change line totals
7 Change years to be printed
8 Change variables to be printed
9 Specify blank lines in the table
10 End of editing
Enter a number between 1 and 10
8
Variables with their numbers
1 1 RICE YIELD 2 2 RICE AREA
3 5 prod (phasing mode)
Press CR key when you want to continue
Code= 1 Replace a variable
Code= 2 Add a variable
Code= 3 Delete a variable
Code= 4 No more changes
Enter a number between 1 and 4
2
Number of line after which a new variable should be inserted?
Enter a number between O and 3
3
No. of variable to be inserted?
6
Variables with their numbers
1 1 RICE YIELD 2 2 RICE AREA
3 5 prod (phasing mode) 4 6 prod value (ph)
Press CR key when you want to continue
 ANNEX 2 21
APPENDIX 2

Code= 1 Replace a variable

Code= 2 Add a variable
Code= 3 Delete a variable
Code= 4 No more changes
Enter a number between 1 and 4
4

1 Change table No.

2 Change sub-title
3 Change printer
4 Change scale factor
5 Change number of decimals
6 Change line totals
7 Change years to be printed
8 Change variables to be printed
9 Specify blank lines in the table
10 End of editing
Enter a number between 1 and 10
9
Do you want any blank lines in the table? l Specify'ing blank lines l
ihe following variables are included in the table:-=~-~~~:~~=-~~=~=~=~=~~~-
Variables with their numbers
1 1 RICE YIELD 2 2 RICE AREA
3 5 prod (phasing mode) 4 6 prod value (ph)
Press CR key when you want to continue
Do you want a blank line after var. RICE YIELD ?
N
Do you want a blank line after var. RICE AREA ?
y
Do you want a blank 1i ne after var. PROD (PHASING MODE) ?
N
Do you want a blank 1i ne after var. PROD VALUE (PH) ?
N
1 Change table No.
2 Change sub-title
3 Change printer
4 Change scale factor
5 Change number of decimals
6 Change line totals
7 Change years to be printed
8 Change variables to be printed
9 Specify blank lines in the table
10 End of editing
Enter a number between 1 and 10
10
 ANNEX 2 22
APPENDIX 2

New definition of the table l

This table has been given No. 1
Sub-title of the table:
RICE PRODUCTION - PHASING
l-----------------------------
The table will be presented on the CRT
The data will be printed with 1 decimals
All years to be printed
Variables to be printed
Variables with their numbers
1 1 RICE YIELD 2 2 RICE AREA
3 PROD (PHASING MODE)
5 4 6 PROD VALUE (PH)
Press CR key when you want to continue
A blank line will be inserted after:
No. 2 2 RICE AREA
Do you want to change some format specifications?
N
DATA LISTING OPTIONS
Code= 1 Standard output of all/block of data
Code= 2 Produce a table using a previously defined format
Code= 3 Define a table format
Code= 4 Print/display previously defined format
Code= 5 Edit a previously defined format
Code= 6 Print list/names of defined formats
Code= 7 End of output operations

Getting the table printed l

Enter a number between 1 and 7
2
l---------------------------
SELECT TABLE FORMAT
Input format number

The table is printed l

Enter a number between O and 1
1
1 RICE PRODUCTION - PHASING
Is it OK?
l----------------------
y

DATA LISTING OPTIONS

Code= 1 Standard output of all/block of data
Code= 2 Produce a table using a previously defined format
Code= 3 Define a table format
Code= 4 Print/display previously defined format
Code= 5 Edit a previously defined format
Code= 6 Print list/names of defined formats
Code= 7 End of output operations
Enter a number between 1 and 7
7
Main menu follows 1
l----------------- -
 AJUTEX 3

13 January 1983

RPV - RAtrE OF
.... RETURN/PRESENT VALUE
DEBT - 1)EBT SERVICE CALCULATIONS

TS - TIME SERIES GENERATOR

PHASE - PHASING CALCULATIONS

FOUR PROGRAMMES FOR HP 41 CV CALCULATOR

by M. Simeon

FAO I WORLD BANK

COOPERATIVE PROGRAMME

INVEST1vffiNT CENTRE

FOOD A.ND AGRlCULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

ROME
 ANNEX 3 - RPV 1

RPV - Rate of Return/Present Value

A Proqramrne for HP 41 C Calculator

I. Definitions
The programme allows to perform calculations on a number of so--
called "variables".
- A variable is a yearly time series of values associated to a name (1
to 6 characters), representing flows of benefits/expenditures in a
project (costs are specified as negative numbers). The series
includes year~ which is used to represent the without project
situation, when it is assumed to be constant.
- Project life (PLIFE) is the period considered for the analysis
(typically twenty years, in addition to year i).
- Maximum developnent :reriod (MAXDEV). Usually, during project life,
variable values are changing over the initial years (called the
development period) and then are constant. MAXDEV is the longest
development period for a given set of variables. It is used in the
programme to save memory when organizing storage of data.
Opportunity cost of capital (OCC) is the discount rate to be
specified for present values/switching percentages calculations. It
is to be specified in percentage, e.g. 12%.
-· Maximum number of variables (MAXNV). The maximum number of variables
to be part of a given data set needs to be specified, in order for
the programme to organize data storage and to check whether enough
memory is available. The programme can then be run with any number
of variables up to this maximum.

This maximum depends on the maximum development period. With the

maximum memory configuration (319 registers), MAXDEV is 28 years for 20
variables, 19 for 30 variables, 9 for 40 variables.
II. Purpose of the Programme
The programme allows to input names and values corresponding to a
number of variables, calculate the balance and the incremental balance (i.e.
balance over year~ value) on the current number of variables, calculate the
internal rate of return on the. incremental balance, and calculate present
values and switching percentages (1) on:
- Each variable (on total values from year 1 to PLIFE, not on
incren~ntal values).

(1) Percentage change to be applied to a variable, the others being

constant, in order to bring net balance present value to zero, i.e. to
make the internal rate of return equal to the opportunity cost of
capital.
2 AN!\1EX 3 - RPV

- Without project situation, corresponding to the projection over

PLIFE of the year 0 balance.
- Net (i.e. incremental) balance.

Variables can be listed at the time of input, and name and values
can be changed at that time.
Variable name and values can also be edited (modified) afterwards,
but then the change in value (positive if increase, negative if decrease) is
to be input instead of the new value itself.
Variables can be stored on magnetic card, as well as Balance.
Previously stored variables including Balance from a previous run, or
variables created by compatible programmes, (1) can be used as input
variables to RPV.
III. Orqanization of the Programme
The programme is - from the user's point of view - organized into
eight modules, corresponding to the various functions that can be performed.
The starting module (labelled RPV) is al.ways to be run first when a
new set of data is to be worked on. This module will call for the key
variables necessary to organize data storage, i.e. MAXDEV and MAXNV, check
on rrernory availability and call for the input of PLIFE and OCC.
The other seven modules are:

Label
- input of variables INP
- listing of balance BL
- storage of balance on card STB
- listing of incremental balance IBL
- calculation of present values and
switching values SW
- calculation of internal rate of return
on incremental balance RE
- editing of variable values or name EDI'

Once at least one variable has been input, the seven modules can be
run successively in any order. Calculations will be performed on the current
number of variables.

IV. Use of the Printer

The programme can be used with or without printer.

(1) PHASE, DEBT, Time Series. See corresponding manuals.

 ANNEX 3 - RPV 3

If the pr inter is connectt?d and swi tcheo on, on the i:osi tion MAN,
variables and results will be printed automatically when the proper function
is selected. If the printer is not connected, or if it is connected but
switched OFF, the programme will stop every time a result is displayed, to
give time to the user to write down the information, and will continue when
R/S key is pressed.

V. Running the Programme (See sample run in Appendix 1)

1. Loadinq the programme

The programne is stored on seven magnetic cards labelled RPVl to

RPV7. The card reader being inserted, perform the following steps:
- Switch on the calculator.

- Set user mode.

- Set run mode.
- If necessary, clear memory from other programmes.

- Execute SIZE 020.

- Read side 1 of card RPVl, then press GrO .• for packing.
- Read cards RPV2 and RPV3, and press GI'O ••

- Do the same for cards RPV4 to ruN7, i.e. after each card is read
press GI'O ••
- Install on the keyboard an overlay indicating assignment of
functions to keys.

2. Assiqned keys

The labels corresponding to the eight functional modules of the

programme (Chapter III) are assigned to the following keys, for user mode:

Label: RPV It\TP BL IBL SW RE EDT STB

Key: X<->Y ~ SIN-l O)S-l SIN COS TAN %

In addition, the function SIZE.is assigned to RCL.

3. Starting

The calculator being in user mode, press RPV (X<->Y) key. At least
20 registers should be assigned for datai if not, an error will occur. Input
data as requested by prompts, and press R/S key.

After the input of MAXNV and ~.AXDEV, the programme will check if
enough memory is allocated for data. If not, it will display "XEQ SIZE nn",
nn being the required nt.rrnber of data registers. (1) When the proper number

(1) nn = 2 MAXDEV + 2 MAXl\1\7 + 15 if MAXDEV >= 8

nn = MAXDEV + 2 MAXNV + 23 if MAXDEV < 8
 4 ANNEX 3 - RPV

of cata registers is allocated, press R/S. The prograrrrne will then ask to
input PLIFE and CCC% and display READY.

Remark: any value is accepted for CX::C, except -100%.

4. Inout of variables - constant factor - listinq - changes - storage on
card
When pressing INP (R v) and within the limits of MAXNV, the
programme will display "CARD ?", allowing to input a variable from a
previously recorded magnetic card. Pressing R/S, or Y followed by R/S, will
cause the programme to display "CARD" and wait for a card to be passed
through the card reader.
If MAXDEV for the data on card is more than the current value, the
data will be rejected and "'WRONG DATA" will be displayed. Press R/S to get
"READY" again.

If MAXDEV of the data on card is less than the current value, the
last year stored on card will be copied into the remaining years.
If "N" was answered to the question "CARD ?", the programme will
call for the name of the variable and then for the values from year zero to
MAXDEV.
Input costs as negative values. If the values of a variable become
constant before the year MAXDEV, the input of PI (Pi number) is understood
as a code to copy the previous year value till the end of the time series.

After input of values is complete, or a card has been read, the

message"~ k ?" is displayed to ask the user whether he wants all the values
of the variable to be m11ltiplied by a constant factor k. If yes, k = ? is
displayed and the factor can~ specified.
The user is then asked if he wants to print all the values of the
variable just introduced, by the prompt "list ?".
Whether or not the data was listed, the programme will then ask
"CHANGE?". If the answer is yes (by just pressing R/S) the programme first
displays the name of the variable, allowing to type a new name if required,
and then asks "CARD?", allowing to input a new variable from another card as
described above. If N is answered, the programme asks to input the number of
the year to be changed, and then displays the old value (e.g. YR3 = 60.00?).
Type the new value and press R/S, or just press R/S if there is no change.
The question "~k?" will then come again, and then LIST? and CHANGE? as
above. At the end of input/listing/changes, the message "STORE?" will be
displayed. If the answer is R/S or Y followed by R/S, the programme will
display "RDY 1 of n", where n is the number of card sides required to store
the variable. Insert a blank (unclipped) card through the reader to record
the data. Finally, the calculator will work for 10-20 seconds and then
display READY.

5. Balance and incremental balance

By pressing BL (key SIN-1 , i.e. SHIFT SIN) or IBL (COS-l), the

programme will list either the balance or the incremental balance (i.e. over
year zero) of the current number of variables (assuming that at least one
variable was input).
 ANI\TEX 3 - RPV 5

6. Store balance
By pressing "STB" (%) key, the programme wi 11 display "RDY 1 of ri"
as above, to record the current balance.
7. Present values and switching values
By pressing SW (SIN), the programme will calculate for 10-20 seconds
and then will list the following results:
- for . each variable: variable name, present value of the total flow
from year 1 to PLIFE, and switching percentage;
for the without project situation, i.e. the year zero balance
projected over the period 1 to PLIFE, present value and switching
percentage;
- present value of the incremental balance;
- opportunity cost of capital (as a remainder) used for the
calculations.

Notes:

a) The switching percentage of a variable is the percentage of change

to be applied to all values of a variable (from year l to PLIFE),
all other variables remaining constant, to make Incremental Balance
Present Value equal to zero. 'I'he percentage is positive if the
variable is to be increased, negative if it is to be decreased.
b) Without project present value is shown negative, i.e. as a cost to
the project, when the value of year zero balance is positive.

8. Internal rate of return

The rogramme, by pressing RE (COS) key, will calculate the IRR - if

it exists - within a given interval. The user needs to input the interval
(to the questions GUESS1? and GUESS2?), as percentages (e.g. for 10%, input
10). If there is no solution within the given interval, the prograrrrrne will
display READY directly. If there is a solution, it will be calculated and
listed.
Notes:

a) The calculation might take as long as b~o minutes.

b) The calculation will be faster if the interval is smaller.
c) The programme would not work properly if the values of incremental
balance were so small that Present Value would be less than l with
any discount rate.
6 ANNEX 3 - RPV

9. Chanqing data
Although all variable values are not stored in the calculator,data
can be corrected by pressing key EDT (TAN). The user will be asked to input
the variable nUJ11ber (VAR NBR?), the year to be corrected (YR?), and the
chanae in value (not the new value). Before asking YR? the proqramme will
display variable name, allowing for changing it. -

Examples:
old value= 50 - new value 65

to the prompt YRn CHGE?, input 15

- old value= 50 - new value= 35 - change= -15.

The programme will run some calculations and display READY.

10. Current number of variables

When the programme has stopped displaying READY, it is possible to

check on the number of variables that have been already input by executing
RCL03.

11. Switchinq OFF and ON again

When the programme has stopped displaying READY, it is possible to
switch OFF the calculator, and to resume the calculations after some time by
switching ON again, and then select one of the appropriate keys, provided of
course that the content of the data registers was not changed by running
another programme in the meantime (it is possible to perform calculations if
only the operating registers are used).

12. Data storaqe organization on maqneti~ card and programme listing

Data on card is organized the following way:

1st data: Variable name

2nd data: MAXDEV
Following data: variable values from year~ to MAXDEV.

An annotated listing of the programme is presented in Appendix 2.

 AlmEX 3- RPV
APPENnIX 1

RPV - Rate of Return/Present Values Pror:ramme

~AMPLE RUN

A. Printer in mode NORM

1. Starting Module (RPV) 2. Inout of a variable,

(having or not having listing, no editing
to execute size) No use of constant factor

1H "!HP'

RUN
RUh

1t1. &ft R!Ji:

HET wH-'r'Pl='i
-15(1. tHj Ri.1H
313.BB RUfi
HET WH-i'R2='i
25.08 RUH
10. BCi RUr1
HET wH-'r'F.'3=~·
Fi.lffi 3i3. BE1 RI.Hi
2(1, tjt: RUH
c,cc ;.; 45.• 88 RUH
1···i::.. 8(1 Rl_;ri
~iET WH-YR5='i
52. 00 RI.it;
~iET WfH'R6=·:,
E.4.fifi RUh
HET WfH'R7='i
55.0Ei RUi;
HET WH-YR:::=·i
'.Z:EQ "RP'v'"
r·iET WH-YF:9=?
E,€1.00 RUH
3B. 80 RUii
HET wH-'r'Rll3=?
18. 013 RUri
62. 5€1 RUH
Rllli
SIZE 0S4
LIST?
FLIFE?

'i'~'; =- I5t:. 1313

12. lh~ RUh
'iR2=25. E10
'r'P3=3B. 013
'i'R4=45. OB

\'?7=55. OB

\'R 1t1=62. 5tt

h RU ii

RU ti
2 ANNEX 3 - RPV
APPENDIX 1

3. Inout of a variable usin~ PI 4. Inout of a variable from

for automatic reoeat, k factor, card - Listing
editing

''IAR3-CARD '>
i H',EST RUt,

LIST?

l HVEST-Y?.?=·:
YR0=0. ;38
YF.'.l=-25,0t1
YR2=-31. 013
IHYEST-'r'R4=·:, YR3=-34.08
pr YR4=-34, 0f1
RU ti 'r'R5=-34.08
YR6=-34.80
'r'R?=-34. 0i3
YR8=-34. tH3 .
l, 12 RUN 'r'R9=-34.013
LIST? YR 18=-34. 1313

CHHi-{GE? CHfiHGE?
H RUH
HIVES,
RIJf1
VHR2-CRRD ·:i READY
Ii RU~;
YR:i

'Tl2=-.3'32. Brr
-397, tHJ F.:Uri

LIST?

'r'k:E,=i;, (1~:~
Y~'.7 =!3. fi(·
1
1(1 =(,. 1:n;
)·

YF 1E1=(1. •3~}

U,i11,Gr.·
H
'.:,1\:n'.
Ri_,·.
 ANNEX 3 - RPV' 3
APPENDIX 1

5. Editing data (EDT) (1) 6. Rate of return (RE) (2)

XEQ "RE·
VuR NBR? GIJESSP
12.00 RUi·1
IN~'EST G1JESS2?
25.80 RUH
YR? I~R=13.64%

YR2 CHGE? READY

39?.0fi rnrrnt
2. 80 :r
CH::,
RU ii
REH DY

(1) To correct 397 into -?q?, the change is -794. Note that it can be calculated
using the calculator.

(2) Calculaterl on riata shown in A-2, A-3, A-4, B-1, after the editing presented
in A-5.
4 ANNEX 3- RPV
APPENDIX 1

g_ Printer in mode ~1AN

1. Listing of a variable 2. Present values, switching 3. Incremental balance

after input oercentages, and rate of ( 1) (2)
return (1)

READ'r
OT !HC-YRR4 BRU1HCE-IHCR
NET Im-VP~: i YRl=-445.013
'!R6=25.00
PV=201. t,5 YR2=433.00
YR1=45. 00
SWITCH %=-353.48 YR3=71. 00
YR2=77.00
YR.3=110.00 Y~'4=122.30
IHYEST-VHR2 YF.'.5= i 35. 70
'r'R4= 146. 38
PV=E,6. 49 'r'F.:6= 14 7. 70
'r'R5=1~•2. 78
S~ITCH %=-1,072.09 YF.'7=138. 7(1
Yf:E,= 152, 78
YF.'.7=152. 76 'r'R8= 141. ?fi
E:z;T SV-W;F.'.3 Yb=143.70
'iF~8=152. 7
v·R·3= i 52, 7 P~'=-2·B. 53 Y~:10=146.20
SWITCH ::=292. 68
YR10=152. B
READY
OT !HC-VRR4
PV=949.62
Sl,IITCH %=-75. 86

WITHOUT P
PV=-261.43
SW ITCH \=2?2. 65

IHCR BAL
P\'=712.79

OC.C %=12. Bt3

RERDY
IRR=49. 25\

RERD'r

(1) On the data shown in A-2, A-"i, A-4 and R-1, 2nd hPfore data editing
shown in A-S.

(2) The value in year 2 reflects the error in the inout of variable INVEST,
year 2, corrected in A-5.
 5

U, Balance and Incremental Balance 5. Present values and switching

(after editing in A-5) percentages
(after editing in A-5)

NET WH-YARI
BALANCE PY=201.65
YR0=35.00 SWITCH %=-39.58
YRl=-410.00
YR2=-326.00 IHYEST~YAR2
YR3=106.00 PY=-566.49
YR4=157.30 SWITCH %=14.09
YR5=170.70
YR6=162.70 EXT SY-VAR3
YR7=!73.70 PY=-243.53
YR8=176.70 SWITCH %=32.?7
YR9=178.70
YR10=181.20 OT INC-YAP4
PY=949.62
READY SWITCH %=-8.40
BALAHCE-INCR
YR!=-445.00 ~ITHOUT P
YR2=-361.00 PY=-261.43
YR3=71.00 SWITCH %=30.53
YR4=122.30
YR5=135.70 INCR BAL
YR6=147.70 PV=79.81
YR7=138.70
YR8=141.70 occ %=12.00
YR9=143.70
YR!6=146.20 READY

READY
 ANNF..X 3- RPV 1
APPENDIX 2

PPV - P~te of Return/Present Vrtlues

A ProPrRT"'frl)A for ~P41C CR1cu1~tor
AnnotAted Pro~ramme Listing
1. Catalogue of Prog:rammes anrl. User Kevs

CAT I'
LBL 'F:h·
LBL'St-
urn ll19 BYTES
Lt,L' Hf·
Lf.L 'SH:
Efi[I 447 8YTES PRffi':~
L8L'SW
L&L 'CH USER KE\'~.:
END 215 B\'TES 21 ·RPY"
l8l'Bl 22 • IHP"
LBL' !BL -22 ·STB"
,,~ ·sw·
LBL'PR 'j

LBL 'EDT -:-23 ·BL"

END 215 BYTES 24 ·RE"
LBL 'RE -24 "lBL°
END 223 BYTES 25 ·EDT·
LBL 'O 34 SIZE
LBL'YR
LBL'K
l8L 'Y
L8l'H
LR'T
l8L 'R
LBL 'V
LBL'PY
END 223 BYTES
.rnn. 03 BYTES

Total: 111~~ hvtes

:: 20t;" re.c;,i sters
Available for data: 11t, registe:s
2 ANNEX 3 ... RPV'
APPENDIX 2
2. Card RPV 1
Starting Module

t3l•LCc. ·RPV· I~ore overflow errors - Set user mrv-1°

02 SF 24
03 :;;: 27
04 Ci.JG
05 •~IA~:HV? • MAXNV stored in 01
06 F·ROMPT
07 STO 01
08 •M~X'DEV? •
09 PJ:DMPT
18 STO 00
11 8
12 :,:; ::.'(i Maximum between A and l'-11-\XDEV in X
13 t,\ )'r'
14 13
15 +
Address of year zero balance: MAX (8, MAXDEV) + 13
16 STO 09
17 RCL 00
18 + Address of 1st variable Present value - 1
19 STO 10
Size - 1
20
2
22
.*
1
RCL 01
?
~
Size = MAXDEV + MAX (MAXDEV, 8) + 2 MAX NV + 15

23 +

24+L8L 01
25 SF 25
26. R1=L I HD ~:
27 FS?C 25 Test size
28 GTO 02
29 ·XEQ SIZE
30 1
31 +
32 >::EQ •fi•
33 P;:OMPT
34 l
35 -
36 GTO 0!
Test size a~in
.)7•Li::l 02
38 •PLI FO •
39 RCL 00
40 PF:Ol'tPT
41 INT Check P LIFE< MAXDEV
42 >:<Y?
43 GTO 02
~4 sra 11 P LIFS stored in 11
45 GTO ·o· Input of OCC
46+L8L ·sw SN: Store name of variable with number in X
47 RCL 10 Address of name is calculated
48 t
49 PC.L 01
50 +
51 l
 A..llli'EX 3 - RPV 3
APPENDIX 2

3, Carrl RPV 2/3 (INP)

FF:P • !HP' Input/Li.stinp:/Ch;rni,:es of a Vc1riable

t}!+ . . t:L ·I~F·" Current numher of variables (NV) in 03

~CL~! ~~~ 03 X=Y? Test aP-ainst r-~AXNV - XEO OR: Jnout from card
GTG ·~· l ST+ 0~ Increment NV by 1 - Year counter to zero
~E~ 08 !2 STO 04 Year zero of new variable stored in 12
·Y~R· RCL 83 XEQ "H" Register 04 used as counter/indirect address
• ~-i-i11i'iE·i • AON PROHP,T Input of name
ROFF XE~ ·SH·
I~+:..~L 84
~CL e3 CLO XEO ·CH·
·,--','R' t<C.L 08 WT
\EG 'h" ·~=,· PI
F;~.JT x~v, GTO 00 Automatic repeat if PI js input
ST:: I<: ~4 l ST+ 04
i$1~ Hf, ~TO -04 OU: Loop to inout variable values
37+L8L. 85 05: Menu for constant factor, listing, editing, storage.
·tK~· XEQ ·Y· FS?C 01
;,:EQ 10 ·usr;·· XEQ ·v·
FS?C 0i XE~ 06
·cHAi-lGEi· xrn •y•
FSiC 01 GTO 02
·srGRE?· XEQ ·Y·
FS'C 01 XEQ 01 13
STO 04 ~SL 10 RCL 03 PV address in 07 - Calculates PV of last variable
+ STO 87 XEQ ·py• 12
STO 64 PCL 09 STO 07 Set counter in 07
XE~ 'f'

6S~L8L 07
07: Loop to add last variable to balance
~CL IND 84 ST+ IHD 0Z
! ST• 04 ST+ 07
!SG 00 GiO 07 GTO "R"

75•LE:L ~2 02: Edi ti.np; last varirtble

CL~ RCL 0J XEQ "CH" Name displayed - New name can be input
AG~ ~~(~FT AOFF
A~TO lhD X XEQ 08
/c~ ·\~.., 12 + STO 04
·~=· PCL !HD 04 APCL ~ Old value of year to edit is displayed
-~~· PR8hPT STO !HD 04 New value can he input
GTO e5
95+LB:_ 06 06: Listing of variable
CF ~3 CF 02 XEQ "PR"
RTN

11:"~•LE:'- '3ti 00: Automatic repeat if PI was input or after input

l ST- ~4 RCL IND 04 from card
STG 6~ 1 ST+ 04

!87+LE\. 1F 0~: Loop for automatic repeat

~CL 07 STO IND 64 I
ST+~' lSG 00 GTO 03
G10 ~~.
 4 ANNEX 3- RPV
APPENDIX 2

~. Card RPV 2/3 (contd.)

l; S•LP:_ ~;::
=.t,· ·f· ··,:p· RCL 03 08: Input from card
>t~· 'ii" ·1--.:PD ;,·
\U ··1 • i:c,: a1 Rm Data in 11 and 10 temporarily stored in 04-05
HL II STO ll4 RCL 10
STu 05 10.f,12 RCL 00
+ ~DTAX CLR APCL 10
RCL es STO 10 RCL 83 Name read into 10 stored by 'SN'
XEQ ·SN" RCL 08 1 E3
• RCL 04 X<> II X=Y?
GTO 05 X>Y' GTO 09 1 Test on MAXDEV read from card
t ST+ ea 12 t STD 04 /
Automatic repeat if series read from card is shorter
than MAXDEV
;; cL t1 ,: : ,J (..; ~·c~ 10 0.1: StoraR;e on card of last variable
STC ~5 ~~L 03 ~EQ ·cH· VAXDEV temporarily in 11 and name-in 10 for sto!age
ASTO 10 I E3 STO 11
10.012 RCL 00 FRC
ST• 11 + WDTAX RCL 04
STO 11 RCL 05 STO 10
!<TN

!75+L8L 09 09: MAXDEV rea<i from card is more than MAXDEV of

! ST- 03 'WROhG DATA" current data set
ic~uiffT GTO ·R· NV is upnated back
l3l+LE;L !B 1Q: Repeat factor stored in 04
·k=?· PFO~PT STO 04
FCL ee FFC 12 1 E3 1
+ 12 + STO 05 Counter set in 05
l'JHLE:L 11 ..l.1.g Loop to multiply variable values by k
~CL IND es RCL 04 *
STO IND 05 ISG 05
,re, 11 nH

STB: Stora~e of halance

-~~ R(L ~9 2 - Address of vear 0 stored in 09
,,'.C >:1 ;, ! + 1~\L BJ
Name 'BL' stored ln (vear 0 address) - 2
~~·.: I E3 " STC INDY MAXDEV stored in (year 0 address) - 1
~~~ 64 + I EJ I + 1
WDTAX GTO ·R· EHD
 Al'l'1TEX 3- RPV 5
APPENDIX 2

4. Card RPV 4 (SW)

Present Values/Switching% Module

FRP ·sw·
01•L8L ·sw· . Test if at least one variable was input
02 XEQ ·r·
e.3 l
64 RCL 69
Address of year 1 balance
ii6 STO )4
87 ~
Address of balance present value
l''' ':"(, 87 Calculates balance PV
iB ~·:~ 02
11 CF 0ti
12 X=~? Flag set 'if OCC =0
13 SF 06
14 FS? 06 if occ f. 0 :
15 GTO 03
16 1
17 +
Without project PV =
18 ~;CL 11 1 - (1 + OCC/100)1"(-PLIFE) x (yr O balance)
- OCC/100
19 CHS

21 CHS
if occ = 0 :
22 1
23 + Without project PV =- P LIFE x (yr QJ balance)
24 RCL 02
25 I

2ti+LBL 03
27 F:3? 06
28 ~·CL 11 P LIFE
29 RCi.. IND 09 Yr 0 balance

32 STO 05 Without project PV stored in 05

.;.? ::.- 86 Incremental halance PV stored in 06
34 ~:Ci.. 03
35 i E3
36 ·
3~ I

3'3 STO 08 Counter for number of variables

40 ~·CL 10
41 I
42 t
43 STO 07 Address of variable 1 PV
 6 ANNEX 3- RPIT
APPENDIX 2

4. Card RPV 4 (SW) (contd.)

_lg: Loop to List PVs and Switching Percentages

~CL lHD 07 XEQ 07 I. Recall PV

ST+ 07 ADV ISG 08 Increment PV address
GTO 12 "WITHOUT P·
AVIEW XEO 05 RCL 05
~E~ 0? A~V ·IHCR BAL"
A\!EW XEQ 05 RCL 06
xi:~ ·v· hI:v ·occ ~-
~CL ~2 1813 * XEQ •y•
4:S GTO ·~..

7i+L&L 0:'
Xi:~ ·y· ~::0? RTH
07: List PV. No switch 1, if PV = 0
- Balance PV x 100
RCL 06 CHS 1 E2 * Switch%= PV
X<>Y I XEQ 06 XEQ •y•
Rm List switch%

86+LBL 13
~CL 8:3 INT XEQ "CN·
.JJ.: Generates variable name and corresponding
'r -VAR· RCL 133 IHT variable number
XFQ ·N· AYIEW RTN
n,•L8l 05
•P,':: • .Rm

9~•LE:L 06
·S~ITCH %=· RTN
1~2•L8L ·CH·
CLA RCL 10 + ~CL 01 CN: r.-all n~me - Name correspondin~ to variable
+ I + ARCL IND X EHD number in Xis called into ALPHA register.

Sets display with variable number

 _ANNEX 3 - RPV 7
t;. RPV S (BL) APPENDIX 2

Printout Module
FF:F "BL·
8 •LSL ·BL·
0 ;:f.g ·r· .Set flags for balance---> listing
e SF 83
04 CF 02
05 XEQ ·PR·
06 GHI ·R·

07+i..E:L "!BL"
Bf :~rn ~r· .
139 SF B3
Set flags for incremental balance---> listing
i~ ·;F 02
it ;di ·n:·
12 GTO ·R·

13+LE:L 'PR·
14 RCL 03
15 >IQ ·CH· Routine to list time series of values
16 ·~-YAR·
t 7 RC:L 03 either balance if flag 03 set
!S XEQ 'N"
19 FS 1 03 or last variable if flag 03 clear
20 ·BRLHNCE·
21 FS? 02 Total values (including year 0) if flag 02 clear
22 ·~-IHCR"
23 iWIEM Incremental values. (from year 1) if flag 02 set
24 ~:CL 09
25 FC? 03
26 12
27 :;TO 07
28 STO 04 Year 0 address in 07
29 I
38 FS" 02
31 STt 04 YeRr 1 Rddress in 04 if incremental values to be listed
32 \C:Q ·K· Year counter to 0
33 1
34 FS·1 02
-:s ~T,. ae Year counter to 1 if incremental values to be listed
3ti+LE:L 01
37 • 'r'R •
38 ~CL 00
3'1 !HT
40 :X.EQ ·H·
41 't-= • Loop to list values
42 F:CL !HD 07
43 CHS
44 ~:CL IND 04
45·FS? 82
4E. +
,q ~'.EQ •y•
48 1
49 ST+ 04
5a ISG ~0
51 GTO 01
52 HI: 1 11

c:;3 ~ ~,i
8 ANNEX 3 ... RPV
APPENDIX 2

5, RPV ~ (BL) (contd.)

Editinp; Module

54+LBL "EDT·
ss xrn ·.r·
56 "VHR NBR?·
57 RCL 03
58 PROMPT
59 X>Y?
60 GiO ·R·
t,1 X,=0-?
i;2 GTO 'R" Check tri8.t VAR ~mR being input is within the proper range
63 STO 05

t,5 H~lH
VAR NBR 8tored in 05
E,6 PF OPlPT
Variable name is displayed and can be changed
67 HOFF
68 ASTO IHD X
69 XEO "YR"
?B STO 04 Year to be edited - stored in 04
71 RCL 09
72 +
,3 Si0 07 Address of year balance to be edited is stored in 07
74 ·t- CHGE?·
75 P~OKPT
76 ST -t IND 07 Uodates balance
77 RCL 05 VAR NBR hack in x
78 RCL 10
79 +
80 STO 07 Address for PV change
81 RDH Change back in x
82 RCL 02
83 I 1 + occ
84 t
es RCL 04 Year number
86 X=0·) If year is O, no adjustment on PV
87 GiO ·R·
88 'r't:~ ( 1+ OCC) year
5~ ST -t IND 07 PV is adjusted
91 GiO ·R·
92 ErlD
 .ANNEX 1 - RPV 9
r; • RP\T f=i ( RF ) APPENDIX 2
R~te of Return Calculation
el+LE:L ·RE' (IJlinois al~orithm)
(,2 ~·~~ ·1·
li3 ~CL 02
134 STO 20 or.c s,wed in 20
es -1
ei; XEO 01 Balance transformed into incremental balance
07 •GUESS l ?"
08 PROMPT Store guesses
09 STO 13
113 ·GUESS2?" R1 in 13
11 PPOMPT
12 ~.T(l,;14 R2 in 14
13 l E2
14 ST.1 13
; 5 ST, 14
lti RCL 13
17 STO 16
18 STO 02 R1 in 02
19 RCL 12
20 STO 04
Adriress of year
21 17
22 STO 07
23 XEQ "P\/'
PV wi.th R1 to be stored in 17
24 RCL 17
25 i<CL 14
26 STO 16
27 :;ro 02
R2 in 02
28 RCL 12
29 SiO 04
30 18 Address of year
31 STO 07
32 :~EQ ·py• Address to store PV - PV with R2 to be stored in 18
33 RCL 18
34 RCL 17
35 *
36 X>0'>
37 GTO 03 If PV's for R1 and R2 of same sign, no root exists
within the interval
3S•LBL 02
33 r ~L 14 Begin loop
40 i<CL 14
41 RCL 13
42 -
43 RCL 18
44 RCL 17
45 -
46 I
47 RCL 18
48 •
4-l -
50 STO 16 New rate R
51 STO 02 R jn 02
5~ RCL 12 Address of year
53 STO 04
54 1~ PV with R to be stored in 19
55 STO &7
56 >-'.tO ·pv· If PV = 0 then done
57 F:C~ 19
58 X=B ·
'.:, :, :, Tl) ~-1
10 ANNEX 3 - RPV
APPENDIX 2

~. RPV (R~) (contdt.)

68 i18S
61 .1
Tolerance value if PV < .1 then done
62 X)\'?
63 GTO 04
64 RCL 19
65 RCL 18 Select new guesses
E,6 *
67 X'>0.,
68 GTO 0~
ES RCL f4
7~ ~.TO 13.
-:- ; ~CL 18
/( '310 l?

n+LBL ee
74 RCL 16
75 STO 14
76 RCL 19
77 STO 18
78 GTO 02

79+LE,L 06
80 2
S1 ST; 17
82 Ci10 00

83+LSL 04 Done display result

:34 >'.EQ 05
85 TCSE 8
86 TONE 6
87 "IRR=·
88 RCL 16
89 1 E2
90 *
91 f'.<~Cl X
92 ·r-:;"
.:..3 i=ivrE~

95 GTO ·R·

9t+L8L 03
97 XEQ 05
S8 GTO ·R·

99•LR 05
l i:113 RCL 20 Store h8ck OCC in 02
lf3l SiO 02
l (12 l
103 XEQ 01
104 RTH
IncrementRl halance transformed into halance
 !N,NEX 3- RPV 11
APPElIDIX 2

6. RPV (PE) (c·ontd.)

1135 +L8vil I
18~ RC:... IND 09
YeRr 0 balance is multiplierl by value in x (1 or -1).
!2S Siu 80 and then arlded to all ye8rs of balance
td :~t:Q ·K·
110 l
111 ST+ 00
112 RCL 09
113 1
114 +
!15ST004
116ST012

117+LBL 14
118 RCL 06
119 ST+ IND 04
12~ 1
121 ~.T+ 04
122 !% 00
123 GTO 14
124 i:HD
12
ANNEX 3 - RPV.
APPENDIX 2
7, RP\1 7 ( 0)

6l•~E·~ ·o· Various Routines

ij2 • o::c %"
B3 -'. ~€1 O = Input of OCC - Value -100 illegal
B4 F· i: i)MPT OCC divided by 100 and stored in 02
B5 ;r.:=Y? ~AXDEV in 00 divided by 1000 for counter
€16 GTO ·o·
07 1 E2
es 1
B9 STO 02
10 I E3
11 ST! 00
12 GTO ·R•
13+LE,i.. • YR·

: ~· :;c,11;:"T YR= Ask to input year numher

IS ~,: ... 00 Test if year ~ 0 and :5. t-A,AXDEV
17 HC
18 1 E3
19 *
20 X\l'.,
21 GTO "YR·
22 RDN
23 x,.0?
24 GTO ·YR'
25 ·YR'
26 i\EQ 'H"
27 RTH
Year numher put in ALPHA
2a~L8L 'K'
29 F.'CL 0B
30 FRC
31 STO 00
K = Put integer part of register 00 to zero
32 RTH
(year counter)

33+L8L •y•
34 fl(!,{
35 F'P!JMPT
36 ;;;::;::F Y = t,fai t for ALPHA input ( yes or no)
37 HSTO Y Flag 01 set if input is not N (i.e. yes)
:;.~ • N. Flag 01 clear if input is N
3s ~;ro x
4~ SF 01
41 :<:Y?
42 CF 01
41 RTN

44•UL ·H"
45 FiX 0
46 CF 29
47 ;;~.:L X N = Value in Xis attached to the content of ALPHA
4:3 FiX 2 rer;istert with no decimal digit and no'decimal point.
49 s;: 29
5& f<.TH

51+L8L ·r·
52 SF 21
53 F'CL 03 T = Set fJar ?1 for printer control
54 ;:=e 1 Test if variahles already input
55 .~ TO ·p·
r,.; ; ~ 1;
 A_NN1i'_.x 3- RPV 13
APPENDIX 2

7, RPV 7 (O) (contd.)

57•i...tL ·R·
58 • ~:EAD'i •
R = Displays READY and STOP
59 ~STO X
6B i1\i!EW
61 STOP

62+LBL •y•
63 SF 21 V = ~et flap, for printer control
64 ~~CL X Appends content of X to ALPHA and displays ALPHA
65 AYJEW
66 RiN

67+LB(•py•
t,8 ~ PV = Routine to caJculate present value of a flow from
~'} STO ft,;D 07 ye8r 1 to P LIFE
lB .,:t:v ·K· Assumes arldress of year 1 stored in 04
;'I! PV to be stored at address stored in 07
72 ST+ 00
73 STO 08

74+LBL 09
75 XEQ 11 Increment address for next year
76 1
77 ST+ 04 End of first loop (years 1 to ~AXDEV)
78 iSG 00
79 GTO 09
80 1
81 ST- 04
82 RCL 00
83 FRC
e4 1 E3
85 *
86 F.CL 11
87 :x:='r'? If MAXDEV =P LIFE then done
88 RTH
8'3 i E3
9e I

91 +
·~2 i
9~ -1
94 ~.TO 05
Counter from MAXDEV + 1 to P LIFE in 05
95+LBL 10
96 :~EQ 11 Second loop (years MAXDEV + 1 to P LIFE)
·37 ISG 05
98 GiO 10
99 Vik

1AB+L8L II
l iii J;·(~ 02
l •)2 l
I (13 t
184 Sh d8
l&S RCL I NL 04
Rer,ister 08 used to store (1 + Rate) t
1136 RCL 08
11:17 / Value of year t divided by (1 + Rate) t
111::: ST+ IND 07 and arided to PV
H?) El,[!
 ANNEX 3 - RPV
APPENDIX 2

Storap.-e Plan
00 l·'AXDSV I 1000 - Used as year counter
01 t-'AXNV - 02: OCC - 03: NV
04-08 Temporarv storar,e
09 Arldress of year zero balance: MAX (8, tv'.AXDEV) + 13
10 (Address of first Present value) - 1: fvf.AX (8, MAXDEV) + MAXDEV + 13
11 P LIFE

12 Year ·zero of current variable (being input)

"'AY (Q, MAXDPV) + 13 : Year zero balance
~~AX (8, t,1AXDRV) + fvfA XDRV + 13 Year MAXDEV balance
MAX (8, ~~AXDEV) + MAXDEV + 14 )
)
) Present values of variables 1 to MAXNV
)
id. + MAXNV )

MAX (8, MAXDEV) + MAXDEV + MAXNV + 15 ) .

)
) Names of variables 1 t'"' MAXNV
)
id. + MAXNV - 1 )

Flags Used
211,27 Iv,nore overflow - Set user mode
25 'T'P.st on size
21 Printer control
2q Control of display
(), : Yes/no
02-03 Control of printout (balance/variable - total/incremental)
 ANNEX 3 - TS l

TS - TIME SERIES GENERA'IOR

A PRXRAJ.~ FOR HP 41 C/CV CALCULA'IOR

I. Purpcse of the Proqramme

The programne allows to generate a so-called "variable", display or

print it, store it on magnetic card.
A variable is a yearly time series of values, representing for
example a flow of costs or benefits in a project, or yields or area of a·
given crop. The series includes year zero which is used to represent the
without project situation, when it is assumed to be constant.
Usually, during project life, variable values are changing over the
initial period (called tbe develop-rent period) and then are constant. The
last year of the time- series generated by the programme is called MAXDEV
(maximum develop-rent period), and its value, by definition, remains constant
till the end of project life. This value is used in the programme to
organize storage of data.

A variable is thus made of a name (1 to 6 characters) associated

with values from year zero to MAXDEV.

The programme allows to create a variabl~ using six different modes,

as detailed later. If stored on card, the variable can be read by pther
programmes: RPV and PHASE.

II. Using the Programme

1. Configuration of the Calculator

The programmne occupies 1064 bytes (152 registers). The number of

data registers required is MAXDEV + 11. A HP41C calculator with two memory
modules can run the programme with MAXDEV equal to up to 28.

The prograrrrne can be loaded from card (it is stored on five cards).
An annotated prograrrrne listing is given in Appendix 2.
The programme can be used with or without printer (see manuals of
RPV or DEBT progr arrrnes) •

2. Running the Programme

The programme is started either by XEQ'TS' or by pressing key X<->Y

in user mode.

The following steps are explained below, and illustrated by seven

sample runs presented in Appendix 1 (one for each of the six available
options, and one showing input from card, editing, storage on card).

(1) Calls for MAXDEV? i.e. maximum number of years when data will
change. If required, size will have to be executed to allocate
the necessary data registers.

(2) Then asks "CARD?". If yes, asks to pass a card to read data and
check on MAXDEV compatibility (if shorter on card, last year
copied to the end, if longer on card "WRONG DATA" is displayed).
Go to (6).
2 ANNEX 3 - TS

(3) Asks to input Name of data series.

(4) Asks to input YR O value.

(5) Asks to select OPTIOI:'1?

Six options, selected with upper keys:

A: Actual. Actual values to be input. If PI is input for a year,
previous year value is repeated to the end of the series.
a Cyclical. "NBR OF YRS" : input duration of cycle, then the
programme prompts for values for the first cycle, and then copies to
the rest of the years.
B % (Percentage). Input of a base value, and then input of each year
as a percentage of that value. Use of PI as repeat factor.
C Linear. Linear interpolation between two given years; values set
equal to year~ before beginning year and equal to last year of
change till the end of the series.
D Rate. Between two given years, value of a year is equal to previous
year value increased (or decreased) by a given constant rate.
E S-Curve: Values between two given years are generated following a
Sigmoid Curve pattern.
For C, D and E, the programme will call
- OIANGING FRCl1 YR?
and TILL YR?
For C and E, it will call for the value of the variable in the last year
of change.
(6) When all values have been calculated, or after input from card, the
series can be listed on display,or printed (question: ·LIST?). Then the
question CHANGES? is asked. If yes, give the year to be changed, the
value of that year is displayed, and a new value can be input before
pressing R/S again. The last question is STORE?, that allows to record
the time series on to a magnetic card.
 ANNEX 3 - TS
APPENDIX 1 ·
SAMPLE RUNS

All runs shown below are with the printer in the position NORM.

Input of actual values Cvclical repeat

Use of PI for repeat

xrn ·rs·
NAXDEY?
12.00013 RUN XEQ ·rs·
HOHEXISTEHT NAXDEY?
SIZE 0213 12.00 RUH
CARD?
H RUH
xrn ·rs· HAtiE?
HAXBE\/? INCOME
12.0008 RUH 'r'R0=?
XEQ SIZE 23 10.00 RUH
SIZE 023 OPTIOH?
RUH
CARD? HBR OF YRS?
H RUH 5.00 RUH
HAHE? 'r'R1=?
IHCOHE RUi-; -150.00 RUH
'r'R0=? YR2=?
10.00 RUH 25.00 RIJH
OPT I OH? YR3=?
XEQ A PI
YR1=? RU:~
-150.0€1 RUH LIST?
YR2=? RUH
25.00 RUH INCOME
YR3=? YR0=10.00
32.00 RUH 'r'R 1=-150. 00
YR4=? YR2=25.00
PI YR3=25.00
RUN YR4=25.00
LIST? YR5=25.00
RUH YR6=-150.00
IHCONE YR7=25.00
YR0=10. 00 YRS=25.00
YRt=-150.00 YR9=25.00
YR2=25.00 YR10=25.00
YR3=32.00 YRll=-150.00
YR4=32.00 YR12=25.00
YR5=32.00 I
YR6=32.00 CHANGES?
YR7=32.00 H RLIH
YR8=32.ii0 STORE?
YR9=32.00 H RIJH
'r'R10=32.00 EHD
'r'R11=32.00
YR12=32.00
CHt'lHGES?
H RUH
STORE?
N RUH
END
2 ANNEX 3- TS
APPENDIX 1

Inout using oercenta.!'les Linear interoolation

XEQ ·rs·
KRXDEY? xrn ·rs·
12.00 RUH 1'1RXDEY?
CRRD? 12.00 RUH
H RUH CARD?
HRME? H RUH
YIELD RUH HANE?
'r'R0=? COST RUH
10.00 RUH YR0=?
OPTIOH? 10.00 RUH
XEQ 8 OPT IOH?
BASE YALUE? XEQ C
50.00 RUH CHANGING FROM YR?
'r'Rl %=? 3.00 RUH
30.0(1 RUH TILL YR?
°T'R2 %=? 10.0(1 RUH
45.00 RUH YR10=?
YR3 %=? 80.00 RUH
65.00 RUH LIST?
'r'R4 %=? RUH
'90.00 RUH COST
YRS%=? YR0=10.00
100.00 RUH YR1=10.00
YR6 %=? YR2=10. 00
120.00 RUH YR3=18. 75
YR7 %=? 'r'R4=27. 50
PI YR5=36.25
RUH 'r'R6=45.00
LIST? YR7=53.75
RUH 'r'R8=62.50
YIELD YR9=71.25
YR0=10.00 'r'R10=80.00
'r'R1=15.00 YR11=80.00
'r'R2=22.50 'r'R12=80.00
YR3=32.50
'r'R4=45.00 CHAHGES?
YR5=50.00 H RUN
'r'R6=60. 00 STORE?
'r'R7=60.00 H RUH
'r'R8=60.00 EHD
'r'R9=60.00
'r'Rl0=60,00
YR11=60.00
'r'R12=60,00
CHRHGES?
N RUN
STORE?
N RUH
EKD
 ANNEX 3- TS 3
APPENDIX 1

Inout using compound rate Generating data

followin~ a S-curve

:Z:EQ "TSn
MAX DEV?
12.00 RUN
CARD? XEQ ·rs·
N RUH MAX DEV?
NAME? 12.00 RUH
VALUE RUH rnRD?
YR0=? H RUH
10,013 RUH HAl1E?
OPT IOH? NET VL RUH
XEQ fl YRO=·i
CHAHG!liG FROM YR-;, XEQ E
3. 0t1 RLIH CHAHGIHG FROM YR?.
TILL 'r'R? 3.00 RUH
10.00 RUH TILL YR?
RATE? 10.00 RUH
5.00 RUH YR10=?
LIST? 80.00 R4H
RUH LIST?
\.'ALLIE RUH
'iR0= 1£1. 00 NET VL
Y~· l=10. 130 YR0=0. r:10
YR2=10. 00 'r'R1=0.H0
'r'R3=10. 50 YR2=0. 130
YR4=11.03 YR3=1. 96
'iR5=11.58 'r'R4=8. 86
YR6=12. 16 YR5=21.04
YR7=12.76 YR6=40.00
'r'R8= 13. 40 'r'R7=58. %
YR9=14.07 'iR8=71.94
YR10=14.77 'r'R9=78. 04
YF:l 1=14. 7 °T'R l 0=813. 013
YRl2=14. { YR11=80.00
YR12=80:00
CHAHGE:::?
H RUH CHAHGES?
STOF.'.E?
H RUH
H Rllti STORE?
EHD rl RUH
EHD
 pnm'. 3 - TS
APPENDIX 1
Input from card, changes, storage on card

HAXDEV?
10. 813 RUH Note: The message CARD displayed by the system is not
CilRD? printed. The same happens wjth RDY 01 OF 01 when
RUH storing on card.
LIST?
RUH
WHEAT
YR0=10.00
YRl=10.25
YR2=10.92
YR3=12.32
YR4=14.59
YRS=17.S0
't'R6=20. 41
YR7=22.68
YR8=24.08
YR9=24.75
YR10=25.00
CHAHGES?
RUH
WHEAT A new name can be specified
MHEAT2 RU ti
YR?
5.00 RUH
YR5=17,50?
19.20 RUH
LIST? Key in the new value if there is a change
H RUH
CHAHGES?
MHEAT2
RUH
YR?
3.00 RU ti
YR3=12.32? Just press R/S key if no change (for name as well as
RUN for yP-ar 3 value)
LIST?
RUH
WHEAT2
YR0=10.00
YR1=10.25
YR2=10. 92
YR3=12.32
YR4= 14. 5'3
't'R5= 19. 20
YR6=20.41
YR7=22.68
YR8=24.08
YR9=24.75
YR10=25.00
CHANGES?
H RU ii
STORE?
RIJh RDY 01 OF 01 is displayed
EHD DntP. js stored on card
 ANNEX 3 - TS 1
APPENDIX 2
TIME SERIES PROGRAMME
e1+LBL ·rs·
SF 24 SF 27 CF 05
CF 06 CLRG ·HAXDEV?"
. PROMPT STO 09 STO 07 User mode - Ignore overflow
10 +

13+LBL 01
SF 25 RCL IHD X
FS?C 25 GTO 22
"XEQ SIZE• 1 +
XEQ ·H· PROHPT 1 -
c·ro 1H
26+LBL 22
·CARD?" XEQ •y•
FC?C 01 GTO 03 RCL 09
10 + 1 £3 I 8 + Input from card
RDTAX RCL 07 RCL 09 Value of MAXDEV trom card com.pared with value
X=Y? GTO "L" X>Y? input at the beginning·
GTO 04 10 + STO 01 9 Copy last value to the end .of the· 11eriee i f
- STO 00 RCL 07 number of
years on card ill maller
STO 09 1 E3 I ST+ 00
XEQ ·R· GTO ·L·.
otherwise -+
error

5S+LBL 04
·MROHG DATA" PROHPT
GTO 22
62+LBL 03
·HAHE?· AOH PROHPT
AOFF ASTO 08 ·YR0=?· Input of name, stored in 08
PROKPT ,. STO 10 Input of ,-ear zero value ~- stored in 09
·OPTIOH?· PROHPT STOP
74+LBL 8 ! : input as %of a 'ba11e value
"BASE VALUE?· PROMPT Base value divided by 100 stored in 06 ·
1 E2 1 STO 06 SF 02
flag 02 set
GTO b
82+LBL A
CF 02 A: input of actual value1111
tlag 02 olear
84+LBL b
RCL 09 XEQ 09 XEQ 10
GTO ·L·
89+LBL...,a-
CF 02 CF 04 .1 i input of actual values over .! ;rears (trom
·HBR OF YRS?" RCL 09 year 1 to ,!) that are then repeated to
PROMPT STO 03 X)Y? the end
GTO a X=Y? SF 03 1 .! • number of ;rears in cycle, in 03
IHT STO 04 RCL 03 * ( test that a ~ MAXDEV)
CHS RCL 09 + STO 05 Ji ... number ot full repeat cycles, in 04
X=0? SF 04 1 ST- 04 n • number of' ;rear a in the l&st • short"
RCL 03 XEQ 09 XEQ 10 cycle, in 05
FS?C 03 GTO ·L· flag 04 aet it n • 0
FS?C 04 GTO 06 RCL 05 f'lag 03 BG1i i f .! • MilDEV
XEQ 09 iCL 04 l +
RCL 03 * 11 + STO 05
2 ANNEX 3 - TS
13l•LBL 06 APPENDIX 2
RCL 03 XEQ 09 RCL 04
RCL 03. * ti + STO 05 & ~ N + 10 "" address of 1art year of current
XEQ 08 DSE 04 GTO 06 o;role, !rlored in 05
GTO "L •
l 44+LBL 08
RCL !HD 01 STO !HD 05
I ST+ 01 ST+ 05 loop to copy one 0701•
lSG 00 GTO 08 RTH ~ counter in 00

153+LBL 09
I E3 I 1 + STO 00
11 STO 01 RTN sub routine to set year counter in 00 em.a.
ad.dress in 01
162+LBL ·L·
·LIST?~ XEQ •y•
FS?C 01 XEQ 09 L after in:Pt1t, prompts tor listing/printing
·CHANGES?" XEQ •y• dea:h., changes, storage, end
FS 1C 01 GTO 07
·STORE?" XEQ ·y·
FS?C 01 XEQ 12 ·EHD"
PROMPT STOP

178+LBL 09
SF 21 RCL 09 1 E3 I listing
STO 00 10 STO 01 CLA printer controlled by tlag 21
ARCL 08 AYIEM
listing of valuea s ;rear counter in 00
189+LBL 11 o.d.dre•• ot values in 01
·YR· RCL 00 IHT
XEQ ·H· "r=· loop to liri value11
RCL IHD 01 XEQ •y• 1
ST+ 01 ISG 00 GTO 11
ADV RTH

-203•LBL 07
CLA ARCL 08 AOH chan£!!! - Name displayed and can be changed
PROMPT AOFF ASTO 08 ;rear to~ c ~ d is input i test O !:f yr~
CLA XEQ "YR" ·YR· MAXDEV
XEQ ·H· 10 + ST0.01 old. value displa:,ed. with "'?"
·r=· RCL IHD 01 ARCL X
·r?· PROMPT STO IND 01
GTO ·L •
store Name (.in 08)
224•LBL 12 KAXDEV ( in 09) and t i.llut series are record.eel
RCL 09 10 + l E3 I on card
8 + WDTAX RTH
I g waits for ALPHA in:Pt1t
234+LBL •y• f'lag 01 set if input is not Ji ( i.e. :lf yes)
ROH PRO~T AOFF f'lag 01 clear i f input is li
ASTO Y ·H· ASTO X
SF 01 X=Y? CF 01 RTH
! z value in I is a:ttached to the content ot
245+LBL ·H· ALPHA register, with no deciu.1 digit and
FIX 0 CF 29 ARCL X no deoirna.l point
FIX 2 SF 29 RTH
! z printer controlled by tlag 21
252+L8L •y• appends content of X to ALPHA and diepla;re
SF 21 ARCL X A\/I£W· ALPHA register
Rm
Repeat loop copies value in IND 01 following
2Sr+LBL ·R· C01.L'!t~!' g~i; in 00i ti'.'a !!drl'r't'!!!!!!I~~ riartin.a- in
r•f'I
'"
'OJ.
1\.\,1,..
'' ' .L r-Tn
-JIU
t'1r
till
nm 01 + 1 ( stored in 06) - . - - ---- ...
 ANNEX 3 ... TS 3
APPENDIX·2 .
2ti2+LBL 135
RCL IHD 01 .STO IHD 06 Repeat loop
I ST+ 06 ISG 00
··'GTO 05 RTH

270+LBL 10
·YR" RCL 00 !HT In of a series of values
XEY ·H· FS? 02 ·r %" - as va.lu.e or as depending on flag 02
·~=?· PI PROMPT X=Y? - test against PI for automatio repeat
GTO 09 RCL 06 X<>Y. · - yr counter in 00
FS? 02 • STO IND 01 1 - address to store values in 01
ST+ 01 ISG 00 GTO 10 - values multiplied by content of 06 before
RTH. storage it flag 02 sri (input ,of ~:roentage&1) I

292+LSL 09 .
1 ST- 01 XEO ·R· RTH

297+LBL ·YR·
·r YR?• RCL 09 PROMPT ,:m i appends "YR?" to ALPHA, waits for input,
X>Y? GTO ·YR· X(0? tests input 1ear number against and JUXDEV p
GTO "YR· RTH

306•LBL C
SF 05 GTO E
309+LBL II
SF 06 GTO E
312+LBL E
XEQ 09 FC? 06 XEQ 12 Jli z used
for LINEAR, RATE, or S-CURVE ( i t ~VE,
FS? 06 XEQ 04 FS? 01 05 and 06 are oles.red)
flags
GTO 03 RCL 09 1 E3 1 XEQ 09 : input of By and E..Y, loop 1 ~ By-1
RCL 02 l + t STO 00 XEQ 12 i input w.lue year E..Y, except i t Rate
RCL 02 10 t STO 01 XEQ 04 : input Rate and calculates ;rears By to E;r
XEO ·R· it Rate
loop to _copy V(E..Y) into years Ey+1 to Kil:DEV it
.333+LBL 03 . flag 01 is clear (;yr counter in oo, address in 01)
FS? 06 GTO "L" FS? 05
GTO 07 RCL 07 1 - i t ~ ' already complete~ listing
XEY ·sc· STO 03 RCL 02 it linear ~ go to 07
XEO ·sc· STO 04 RCL 02 &-ourve : By-1 in . I ~ XEQ"SC" gives y/J in 03
10 t RCL IHD X STO 05 E,y in X -+ XEQ"S0" gives ;ym in 04
RCL 03 * CHS STO 06
RCL 07 9 + RCL IHD X
l ;.,; value ~E:r2, ;o
V(B;r-1 ) ca.lou.la.ted in 05, then
stored in 03
ST- es RCL 04 •
ST+ 06 RCL 04 RCL 03
- STt 05 ST! 06
B • :ym x v(;;-~)~
:yO,; (V;r) oalou.lated in 06,
.RCL 05 STO 03 RCL 06 then stored in 04
STD 04 XEQ •I(•
373+LBL 132 ..,_,,-
RCL 00 IHT XEQ ·sc· loop to calculate yearl;r values
RCL 03 • RCL 04 + YJ • value returned by "SC"
STO !HD 01 1 ST+ 01 value ;rear J "" YJ x A + :B A in 03
ISG 00 GTO 02 GTO ·L· Bin 04

3.3?•LBL 137
RCL 02 10 + RCL IHD X
RCL 10 - RCL 02
RCL 07 - 1· + t
STO 03 XEQ ·K· XEQ 14
GTO "L"
4 ANNEX 3- TS
APPENDIX 2

404•LBL ·K· ! s eris oounter in oo, to ~ - 1 it linear,

-I RCL 02 FC? 06 + E;r i f ~
1 £3 I RCL 07 +
STO 00 RCL 07 10 + .Address pf' V (E.r) in 01
STO 01 RTH
419•LBL 14 Loo for line ate
RCL 01 l - RCL !HD X for year J, V J-1 recalled
RCL 03 ·FS? 05 + i f linear, step stored in 03 i11 added
FS? 06 * STO IHD 01 1 if ra:te, 1 + Rate/100 stores in 03 multiplied
ST+ 01 ISG 00 GTO 14 Result in DID 01
RTH

435tLBL 09 Input of first year ot change (E,Y)

FRON·
• CHkNG !HG test O By NAXDEV By in 07
XEQ ·YR" X=0? XEQ ·YR· if By f. 1, counter 1 to Br61 in 00 and address
STO 07 1 X=Y? GTO 09 of V (p) in 01 -+repeat value into ini.t ia1
- 1 E3 I 1 + STO 00 years
10 STO 01 XEQ "R"

453+LBL 09 Input of last yea:r ot o ~ (E;r)

"TILL· XEQ ·YR" RCL 07 test Ey > By E.r stored µi 02
X<>Y X<=Y? XEQ "YR" flag 01 set is E.r • KAXDEV
RCL 09 X=Y? SF 01
X<>Y STO 02 RTH
466•LBL 12
RCL 02 "YR" XEQ ·H·
10 + STO 01 ·~=?·
PROMPT STO IHD 01 RTH
477+LBL 04 .
·RATE?· PROMPT t E2 · I
1 + STO 03 XEQ "K"
XEQ 14 RTH
488+LBL ·sc· fill :
2 * RCL 07 - 1 + J • year number, in X
RCL 02 - RCL 02 X ... 2 ..5. ,(2J-By+1-Ey) / {Ezyi-By+1) ~ 05
RCL. 07 ~ 1 + I 2,5 z ... 1/( 1+.23164.~(x)) __,. in 06
* STO 05 CF 02 X<0? flag 02 set if X <. 0
SF 02 ABS .231642 *
1 + l!X STO 06 v • .319382-zx(.356564--zx(1.78148-zx(1.82126-
-1.33027 * 1.82126 + 1.33027z)))
RCL 06 * CHS 1.78148
+ RCL "ef * CHS Y • V x Z x ELP(-x?-/2) / .,.,Jm
.356564 + RCL 06 *
CHS .319382 + RCL 06
* RCL 05 EHTERt * 2.
1 CHS EtX PI 2 .*
SQRT 1 * FS? 02 RTH
CHS 1 + RTH .EHD,
 Amm 3- TS 5
APPENDIX 2

Stora&! plan.
00

01

02 · Ey (last ;rear of change)

03 to 06

07
08 Name

09 MA.XDEV
10 V (¢)•value cf year¢ in the series
10 + JU.XDEV V (JWDEV)

SIZE • MilDEV + 11

(SIZE assigned to RCL)

Start t key 06 (.X: !) in user mode

Flags 1 to 6 used

Labels and programme size

UiT l
lt,t.. rrs
L....:,,.......
Tl

LBL'Y
UL 't.;
LBLrV
LBL'R
LE;L'YR
L&L'I(
LBL'SC
.EHD. 1064 BYTE~
 ANNEX 3 - DEBT l

DEBT - Debt Service Calculation

A Programme for HP 41 C Calculator

I. Puroose of the Proqramme

The programme allows to input a series of values representing a loan

disbursed over several years, to specify the various characteristics of the
loan, and to calculate total debt service, interest component of debt
service, and outstanding capital, on a yearly basis. Maximum disbursement
period is years 1 to 12. Debt service will not be calculated beyond year 20.,
Loan instalments are assumed to be disbursed at the beginning of
years, and repayment to occur at the end of years.

Grace period is to be specified. It is counted from the year of·

first disbursement, and must be such that first repayment is at the earliest
at the end of the year of last disbursement. For example, if a loan is
disbursed in three yearly instalments, tn years 2, 3 and 4, grace period
must be at least equal to two years:

grace= zero would correspond to first repayment end of year 2

gr ace = one 11
" "
11 11
3
In addition to grace period, the programme will call for interest rate and
number of instalments.

In addition, several options are possible:

- Interest can be paid during grace period or can be capitalized.

- Repayment can be of two types:

- equal instalments (constant total amount), or

- equal capital instalments (variable total amount).

II. Usinq the Programme

1. Confiauration of the Calculator
The programme occupies 1,338 bytes (192 registers) and requires 95
data registers, i.e. a total o{ 287 registers, thus requiring the maximum
memory capacity of the calculator (preferably an HP41CV or HP41C with an
additional quad-memory module. An HP41C with four simple memory modules
would not allow to use the card reader and/or the printer).
The programme can be loaded from cards (it is stored on 6 cards). An
annotated programme listing is presented in Appendix 2.

The programme can be used with or without printer. Data will be

printed automatically when the proper function is selected and the printer
is connected and switched on. If the printer is not present, or if it is
connected but switched off, the programme will stop every time a data is
displayed - to give time to write down the information if required - and
will continue when R/8 key is pressed.
2 ANNEX 3 - DEBT

2. Storinq data on card

If the card reader is connected, loan amounts can be input from a
card, or can be stored on card after input.

After running the calculations, the results can be stored on card:

debt service, interest component, outstanding.
Data corresponding to loan amounts is specific to the DEBT
programme. Data stored as a result of calculations can be read by the
programmes ·RPV and PHASE_.

3. Naming Conventions

The series of values corresponding to a loan is to be given a name

by the user. The name can be made of 1 to 6 characters.

The programme will create names for the three flows of results by
appending the first five letters of loan name to the letter D, I and O for
debt service, interest component and outstanding capital respectively.

4. Running the Programme

See sample run in Appendix 1.

In user mode, the programme is started by pressing the X<->Y key, or
by XEQ'DEBT'.

The programme will call all necessary data, run the calculations,
and allow to list all the results. RF.ADY is displayed at the end of the run,
meaning that the programme is waiting for data editing and new calculations·.

The programme will call for loan name, year of first and last loan
instalment, and loan values for the corresponding years. The data can then
be listed, changed, stored on card.

If yes is answered to the question 'change?' (by typing Y R/S or

only R/S), the name is displayed first. A new name can be typed, or the old
name can be kept by just pressing R/S. Then the year to be corrected is
called for, the old value is displayed, and it is possible either to keep it
by pressing R/S or to type a n~w value before pressing R/S.

When the input of loan values is complete, the programme will ca11·
for the rest of the data, run the calculations, and ask questions to allow
for printing and/or storage on~card of the results.

After the initial run, it is possible to modify some of the data and
to run again the calculations.

Each data is corrected by pressing the corresponding key, and the

message READY comes back after each operation. New calculations are
performed by pressing key E.

The following functions can be performed in any order:

 ANNEX 3 - DEBT 3

Function
A New input of loan amounts
a (shift A) Listing, changing, storing loan amounts (same as after full
input)
B Display of interest rate, that can be changed or not
C Display/editing of grace period
c (shift C) Display/editing of number of instalments
D Specifying if interest paid or not during grace period
d Specifying equal instalment or not (i.e. equal capital
instalment)
b (shift B) Display/printout of loan characteristics
E Calculations and results.
 .ANNEX 3 - DEBT 1
APPENDIX 1

Debt - Samole Run (Printer in NORM mode)

I and II Initial run.
I Input of loan amounts and characteristics.
II Output of debt service calculation, interest component,
outstanding capital and loan characteristics.

DEBT SERY-UST?
RUN
DEBT SERY-D-LG T
YR2=i8.75
YR3=50.00
'i'R4=162. 90
YR5=162.90
,.c., ·oc- 'i'F.:t=162. 90
YiU=lt,2.90
~' F'.LIH YR8=162.90
LO/:!H HHME? r'R9=0. 00
-LG I RUH
LOAtJ-FiRST YRi STORE?
2.00 RUH H RUH
LOAH-LAST YR? IHTEREST-LIST?
4.00 RUH RUH
IIHEREST - I -LG T
150.&iJ RUH YR2=18.7S
'r'R3=S0.00
YR4=72.50
LOAH-YR4? YR5=61.20
180.00 RUH 'r'R6=48.49
LOflH-LIST? 'r'R7=34.19
r RUH YR8=18.10
LOAH--LG T \';;:·3=0.00
YR2=1S0.00
YR3=250.00 STORE?
YR4=180.00 H RUH
OUTSTAHD-LIST?
CHANGE? RUH
H RUH (1UTSTHHD-O-LG T
STORE? YR2=150.00
Y RUN 'r'R?=400.00
F~ATE=:-; '? YR4=580.00
12.50 RUH YR5=489.60
GRACE=? 'i'R6=387, 91
2.00 RLIH r'FJ=273. 50
HBR OF INSTALMENTS=? YR8=144.80
5,(10 RUH YR9=0.00
GRflCE=IHT PAlii?
L'
I STORE?
EQUAL INST? t,; RUN
RIJH LOfl!l CHhR?
RUH
RATE=12.50%
GRACE=2YRS-IHT PAID
HaR OF IHSTALMENTS=S
E~UAL IHSTALMEHTS
LORN DISB BEG OF YR
FEPAlD EHD OF YR
RUH
 ANNEX 3 - DEBT 2
APPENDIX 1

III Changing loan characteristics and recalculating debt service.

Note the test for grace period.

GRACE=2.0~;
1.tc RUH
INPUT GRACE>=2
GRACE=l.00?
3.00 RUH
XEQ d
EQUAL rnsT?
ti RUH
XEQ E
DEBT srnY-L iSP

DEBT SERY-D-LG T
·YR2=1:3.75
'r'R3=50. 00
YR4=72. 513
'r'R5= 188. 50
'r'R6= 174. €i(1
YR7=159.50
YR8=145.00
'r'R9=130.50
'r'Rl0=0. 00

STORE?
N RUH
IHTEREST-LI ST?
RLIH
INTEREST-I-LG T
'r'R2=18, 75
YR3=50.00
'r'R4=72.50
YR5=72.50
YR6=58.130
YF.:7=43. 5t3
W:8=29. 00
'r'R'3= 14. 513
'i'Rl15=0.00

ST,jF;E?
N• RUN
OIJTf;TAtHi-L IST?
N F:LIN
STOF:E?

After STORE? Y, the system displays RDY 1'QFTl and waits for CARD. This is not
printed.
 ANNEX 3 - DEBT 3
APPENDIX 1

IV Run with printer in mode MAN

V Lean characteristics printed on request by pressing b (shift B)

~OAti- LT 1
r'R2= 165. 20
Yf.·3=254.30
'r'F.'.4=9:,. 4a

[:E:E:T ':,c:F.:V-D LT 1
YF.:2=20. 65
'r'R3=52. 44
YR4=144.61
YP.5=144.61
'r'R6=144.6i
XEQ b
'r'R7=144. 61
RATE=12.50i:
'r'R8=144.61 GRACE=2YRS-INT PAID
'1'R9=0. 0€i
HBR OF IHSTALMENTS=5
IHTEREST-I LT1 EQUAL IHSTALNENTS
YR2=20.65 LOAM DISB BEG OF YR
YR3=52.44 REPAID END OF YR
YR4=64.36
YR5=54.33
YR6=43.05
'i'R7=30. 35
YRS=16.07
YR9=0.00

OUTSTANil-0 LT1
'r'R2=165.20
'r'R3=419.50
YR4=514.90
YR5=434.65
YR6=344.37
YR7=242.80
'i'Rf:=128.54·
YF:9=0. 00

Note: When a question is to be answered by YES or NO, the letter N will be

understood as NO and any other answer (including Y, or pressing
directly R/S) will be understood as YES.
 ANNEX 3- DEBT
APPENDIX 2

DEBT - Annotated Pro~ramrne Listinv

PRP ·DEBT' Flar:s userl: Flag 00 set if equal insta]ments, clear if

equal capital repayment. Flar, 01 yes/no. Flag 02 set
&l +LE:L • f1E8T • during initial input. Flag 03 set if interest paid
CF 84 CF 05 CF 06 durinr, grace. Flags ou, 05, 06, 07 used to identify
CF 07 SF 24 SF 27 respectively loan amount, debt service, interest
SF 02 CLRG component and outstanding. Flags 08, 09, 10 used in
edit and calculation. Flag 211: user mode. Flag 27:
l~+LBL 20 ignore overflow. Flag 21: printer
S~ 25 RCL 94 FS?C 25
GTO 21 ·XEQ SIZE 095" Test on SI7E using flag 25 (ignore error)
PF.'CIMPT GTO 20
i ~.tc.f:L 21 Initial run (with flag 02 set) calling for input of all
~E~ A XEQ B XEQ C d?.ta and calculali ons
XEQ c XE9 D XEQ o
XEQ E • nqH CHAR?·
XEQ ·~ ~3? 01 XEQ b
CF e.: ~~i:1 ·R·

32+LBL A
SF 04 xEg H ·r-CARD?·
. of loan values
-A: Inout
First = Year of 1st loan instalment s.tored in 10
XEQ ·y· FC?C 01 GTO 22 Last = Year of last loan instalment stored in 1Q..
10.025 RDTAX GTO a Loan mnounts in 13 to 2t; (including year 0)
42+LBL 22
XEQ H ·~ NAME?" AON
PROMPT AOFF ASTO 11
XEQ H ·~-FIRST YR?· 12 Test O <First< 12
PROMPT X<=0? GTO 22
X)'r'? GTO 22 STO 10

58+LBL 23
XEQ H ·~-LAST YR?·
PROMPT X<Y? GTO 23 12 Test First< last< 12
X<Y? GTO 23 RDN
STO 12 1 E3 I +
STO 00 RCL 10 13 +
STO 01 Year c/ounter in 00 for loan amounts input
77+LBL 01
XEQ H "r-YR· RCL 00 Loop for input of loan amounts
INT XEQ "H" ·~?·
PROMPT STO IND 01 1 Aririress to store amounts in 01
ST+ 01 ISG 00 GTO 01
90+LBL a 2: 2r-iting of loan amounts:
FS? 09 XEQ 26 CF 09
if ini.tial input (FlaR 02 set) then no test;
SF 04 12 STO 04
XEQ "L" ·CHANGE?· ~]so grAce period is tested if values of Flr~t
XEQ ·y· FS? 01 GTO 24 0.r Last are ch2.nged
CF 04 ·STORE?· XEQ ·y·
FS? 01 XEQ 25 FS? 09
XEQ 26 GTO 40
 2 .ANNEX 3- DEBT
APPENDIX 2
I10+LBL 24
ARCL 11 ROH PROHPT Displ;:i.y l<x'ln name to allow for cha.nge
AOFF ASTO 11 XEQ H Edit loan value: test O < year to edit< 12
•f--YR?· 12 PROMPT
X>Y? GTO 24 X(=0' First year of loan (in 10) and lRst year (in 12) are
GTO 24 RCL 10 X<>Y upciated if required, and flag 09 set
X<Y? STO 10 X<Y?
SF 09 RCL 12 X<>v· Input of new value for year to edit. The prompt shows
X>Y? STO 12 X>Y? the olct value
SF 09 STO 01 ·YR·
xrn ·H· ·1-=· 13 Values of First or Last updated if value of loan in one
ST+ 01 RCL IHD 01 ·of these· years is changed to zero
ARCL X ·f-?" PROMPT
STO IHD 01 , Xt0? GTO a
RCL 01 13 - RCL 10
CF 10 X=Y' SF 10 X<>Y
1 FS? 10 ST+ 10 X<>Y
RCL 12 CF 10 X=Y?
SF 10 X<>Y 1 FS' 10
ST- 12 GTO a

l70+LBL 25 Storage of loan values on card

10.025 WDTAX RTN
174+LBL 26 Routine 27 called if not initial input
FS? 02 RTH XEQ 27 RTH

\79+LBL B B: Rate input as% and stored as Rate/100

100 tT• 97 "RATE=" Current value displayed Jf not initial input
RCL 07 FC? 02 ARCL X
"f-%?" RROKPT 100 I
STO 07 GTO 40

192+LBL C _£: Input of grace perioa. Display current value if not

XEQ G RCL 08 FC? 02 initial input
ARCL X ·f-?" PROMPT
STO 08 XEQ 27 FS? 09 Return to loan edit if f]ag og set
RTH GTO 40
204+LBL 27
RCL 08 RCL 12 RCL 10 Test that grace> Last-First
- X<=P RTH if not, input of-grace; called after displaying the
·INPUT GRACE>=· XEQ "H" minimum value required
fWiEW GTO C

2t5+LBL c
·HBR OF· XEQ ·s· "f-=· c: Input number of jnstaJ.ments
RCL 09, FC? 02 XEQ ·H· Display current value if not initial input
"f-?· PROMPT STO 09
GTO 40

226tLBL 11
XEQ G ·f-IHT PRIU?• D: Interest pairi or not durinr, g~2ce period indicated
XEQ ·y· CF 03 FS' 01 by status of Flag O?
SF 03 GTO 40

234+LE:t.. d
·EQUAL !HST?· XEQ •y• d: 8qu::il instnlmenls ()Y' eq;_~.~ ! ~2r,,j l::iJ repayment
CF 06 FS? 01 SF 0£1 indicated by status o~ ~lap 00
GTC, 40
24l+LBL E
26.094 STO 00 CLX ANNEX 3 ,,;. DEBT 3
APPENDIX 2
245+LBL 03
STO IND 00 !SG 00 E: CalcuJations of Deht service
GTO 03 CLA ·n·
ARCL 11 ASTO 26 CLA
·1· ARCL 11 ASTO 72 Register 2F lo QL! initialized to zero. Names of debt
CLA ·o· ARCL 11 service, interest, outstanding, are created using
ASTO 49 RCL 10 RCL 08 suffixes (D, I, 0) and 5 first letters of loan name
+ RCL 09 + 1 - 20 . YL: last year of repayment(< 20) stored in 27, SO, 73
X>Y? RDH STO 27 . K (in 01) : 0 if interest paid during grace, else
STO 50 STO 73 RCL 07 K = Rate/100
FS? 03 CLX STO 01 51
RCL 10 + RCL 10 13 +
RCL IHD X STO IHD Z
RCL 07 * FC? 03 0
RCL 10 74 + X<>Y Outstand (First)= Loan CFirst)
STO IHD Y RCL 10 28 + Interest (First)= Debt (First)= Loan (First)*
X<>Y STO INDY 20 (Rate/100 or 0)
RCL 10 RCL 08 + CF 10
X>Y? SF 10 FS? 10 RDN
I E3 1 RCL 10 + I +
STO 00 INT 13 +
STO 03 15 + STO 04
23 + STO 05 23 + Counter in 00 for 1st loop. I= First+ 1 to YF or 20
STO 06 (YF: Year of first repayment). Flag 10 set if YF > 20
address of loan (I) = 13 + I in 03
329+LBL 04 address of outset (I)= 51 + I in 05
RCL 05 1 - RCL IHD X address of debt (I) = 28 + I in 04
RCL 01 1 +. * address of interest (I) = 74 + I in 06
STO IHD 05 RCL 12
RCL 00 IHT CF 08
X<=Y? SF 08 RCL IHD 03
First loop: Outst (I) = Outst (I - 1) *
(K + 1)
If I< last then Outst (I) = Outst (I)+ Loan (I)
FS?C 08 ST+ IHD 05 Int (I) = Outst (I)* Rate/100 if interest paid
RCL IHD 05 RCL 07 *

l
Debt (I)= Int (I)
FC? 03 CLX STO IHD 06
STO IHD 04 1 XEQ 30
ISG 00 GTO 04 FS? 10
GTO 31 -1 XEQ 30
RCL IHD 05 RCL 07 *
~A~TXCH; ; :cL/ 9 CHS End of 1st loop. Enri of calcu1ations if F~ag 10 set
~tX RCL CF ., Address in 03-0l.l-05-0f; put back to year YF
.:iTO 02 07
X=0? SF 08 FC? 00
°
0 Co1lculation of PMT
if equal capj lal or if Bate - 0 then
SF 08 RCL IHD 05 11 _ 0 . . (-i;-)·/~. -
RCL 09 I FS?C 08 P. IT - .. ut~t - Y, . . fur of repayments
STO 02 RCL 27 1 E3 Else ( w1 th ! , - nbr of repayments) Mt
RCL 10 + RCL 08 + PMT = ~utst \YF) * ~ate/100/~ 1 - . ( ~ + Rate/100) '
STO {le RCL 07 FS? 00 Counte~ -or. 2~o.loop. I= YF to r.nmmum (YL, 20) in 00
CLX STO 01 K = 0 1f eqwL instalments, else k = Rate/100

400+LBL 05
RCL IHD 05 RCL 01 *
RCL 02 + STO IHD 04
RCL IHD 95 RCL 07 * Seconct 1ooo: nebt (I) = PMT + Outst (I) ~ k
STO IHD 06 LASTX 1 + Ir.t (I) = Oust (I)* Rate/100
FC? 00 I RCL IHD 05 * Out.st ( I + 1 ) = Outst (I) 31: X - PMr
RCL 02 - RCL 05 1 + with X = 1 if equ2fl caoital, X = 1 + Rate/100 if
X<>Y STO !HD Y I equal instaJ~enls
XEQ 30 ISG 00 GTO 05 ~ Enri 2;1ci J ooo
CLX STO IHD 05 20 Outst ('!L, + 1 ~ 2ri.i~;~teci to zero ( suppress rounding errors)
RCL 27 CF 08 X)Y? tV:AYDPV for t.1--,e t,i,r~P .sPrie.s: (Debt, Interestand Outstanding)
SF 08 I FS?C 08 CLX if incre2~e~ ~u on~ if~.< ?O for compatibility with
ST+ 27 RCL 27 STO 5A ot~er nror~~~~e~
STO 73 GTO 31
 4 ANNEX 3 - DEBT
APPENDIX 2

444+LBL 30 LAL 10: Sub-routine to increment anaress counter

ST+ 03 ST+ 04 ST+ 05
ST+ 06 RTN (for debt service calculations)

450+LBL 31
SF 05 27 STO 04 LBL ?1: Flap;s 05, Ofi, 07 set successively to list/store
XEQ 28 CF 85 SF 06 73 rlebt service, interest, outstanding.~~XDEV
STD 04 XEQ 28 CF 06 arldress stored in 04
SF 07 50 STO 04
xrn 28 CF 01

466+LBL 40
FS? 02 RTH GTO ·R· Return if initial input, if not display READY

470+LBL 28
XEQ ·L· "STORE'" Storage of results in a format comoatlhJ.e 1- 1ith other
XEQ ·y· FC' 01 Rm pror:;rammes 0.Jame and M.AXDEV followed by year values,
RCL 27 RCL 04 + I + incluciinp; year zero)
1 EJ I RCL 04 + 1 -
lrlDTAX RTH

489+LBL ·L·
XEQ H "!--LIST?· List: Label 'L'
XEQ ·y· FC? 01 RTN Listing of values from year First to MAXDEV
RCL IHD 04 1 E3 1 V~XDEV previously stored in 04
RCL 10 t STO 00 Year counter in 00
RCL 04 1 + RCL 10 t Address of year values in 01
STO 01 SF 21 XEQ H (from year First to Last if loan arnounts)
·1--· RCL 04 I - o.2. : Loop to list values
ARCL IHD X AYIEW
SIS+LBL 02
·YR· RCL 08 !HT
XEQ ·H· ·1-=·
RCL IHD 01 ARCL X
1WIEW 1 ST+ 01 ISG 00
GTO 02 ADY RTH
5~0+LBL ·R·
·READY· ASTO X STOP R: READY at the end of each run/edit
534+LBL "'r'"
AOH PROMPT ROFF Y: ~lag 01 if set of input is not N (i.e. if yes)
ASTO Y ·H· ASTO X
SF 01 X=Y? CF 01 CLA
RrH

546+L8l "H"
FIX 0 CF 29 HRCL :t.--, .-
N: Value in X attached to the content of ALPHA
Fl X 2 SF 29 RTH register with no decifTlal digit c>.nri no decimal point
553+LBL H
·LOAH· FS? 05
·DEBT SERY· FS? 06 H: Proper label on ALPHA ciepenci i np; on flag set
·INTEREST· FS? 07
·OUTSTAHD· RT!!
 .AN1IBX 3- DEBT 5
APPENDIX 2
562+L8L t,
SF 21 ·RATE=· RCL 07 b: Listing/display of loan characteristics
100 • ARCL X ·r%"
AYiEW XEQ G RCL 08
XEQ ·H· "rYRS-INT •
FC? 03 ·rHOT • ·rPAID·
AVIEW ·HBR OF •
XEQ ·s· ·r=· RCL 09
XEQ ·H· AYIEM "EQUAL·
FS? 00 XEQ ·s· FC? 00
·rCAPITAL • FC? 00 CAT 1
·~REPAYNEHT" AVIEM LBL' DEBT,
·.LOAH DISB • LBL'l
·rBEG OF YR· AVIEM LBL'R
"REPAID END" "r OF YR" LBL'Y
AYIEM ADY GTO 40 LBL'H
LBL'S
60l+LBL ·s· EHD 1338 BYTES
·rIHSTALNEHTS· RTH • EHD. 06 BYTES
604+LBL G
·GRACE=· RTH END
(192 registers)
Storage Plan
00 Year counter
01 to 06 Temporary storage for calculations
07 Interest rate (Rate in% divided by 100)
08 Grace period
09 Repayment period (Number of instalments)
10 First: year of first loan instalment
11 Loan name
12 Last: year of last instalment
13 to 25 Loan 2mounts (years Oto 12)
26 Debt service - Name
27 MAXDEV (Last year of debt service,+ 1 if <20)
28-48 Debt service (years Oto 20)
49 Outstanding - Name
50 id. 27
51-71 Outstanding capital (Years Oto 20)
72 Interest - Name
73 id. 27
74-94 Interest component (Years Oto 20)

Size= 095
Flags useQ._! 0 to 19 - 21 - 24 - 25 - 27
Prograrmne size : 1378 bytes (6 cards, i.e. 12 half cards)
 ANNEX 3 - PHASE 1

PHASE - Phasina Calculations

A Proorarnme for HP 41 C Calculator

I. Purpose of the Programme

l. Definitions

A variable is a yearly time series of values, including year zero,

associated with a name (1 to 6 characters).

Values are changingover the initial period, till the year called
MAXDEV (maximlllll development period), and then are constant till the
end of
project life (see also manuals of RPV and TS programmes).

A unit variable contains a series of values that represent a pattern

to be aggregated. The values correspond to the entry of one unit of this
variable in a project in year 1. For example, the values will represent the
yield of 1 ha of a perennial crop planted in year 1 (then value in year zero
should be zero), or the changes in the value of production from one farm if
it enters into a project in year 1.

In the programme, the unit variable is called PR.OJ (for project). As

the without project situation might not be constant, it needs to be
specified in another variable, called NOPR (for no project).
MAXDEV is limited to 20 for both PR.OJ ana NOPR.

The number of units entering·into the project year after year are
specified in another variable, the phasing variable. As the number of units
must be specified in incremental terms (e.g. the number of new hectares
irrigated· in year 3, and not the total number of hectares irrigated that
year), the phasing variable is called !NCR NB (Incremental number). MAXDEV
is limited to 12 years for INCR NB.

2. The Phasing Calculation

The purpose of the programme is to aggregate values stored in the

unit variable using the number of uni ts in the phasing variable. The
calculation is performed a different way depending whether the results are
to be in total or incremental terms (incremental means total minus the
without project value). This will be better illustrated by two examples:
2 ANNEX 3 - PHASE

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Yieln-Project 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 -'---> yr 20
Yield-NOPR 1.0 1.1 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 ---> yr 20
Nbr of hectares
( incremental) 10 20 20 0 ---> yr 20
Total results
has of year l 10 15 20 25 30 30 30
has of year 2 20 22 30 40 50 60 60
has of year 3 20 22 24 30 40 50 60
Total 50 59 74 95 120 140 150
Incremental Results
has of year 1 0 4 8 13 18 18 18
has of year 2 0 0 6 16 26 36 36
has of year ~ 0 0 0 6 16 26 36
Total 0 4 14 35 60 80 90
For example, value year 3 for the 20 ha entering year 2 is
yield year (3-2) = 2.0 minus yield NOPR year 3 = 1.2
multiplied by 20 equal 16.
The results will be calculated up to MAXDEV = 20 for results.
II. Using the Proqrarnme

1. Confiquration of the Calculator

The programme occupies 1,081 bytes (155 registers), and the number
of data registers required is 89. The programme can be loaded from cards (it
is stored on 5 cards). An annotated programme listing is given in Appendix
2.

The programme can be use<l with or without printer.

2. Running the Programme

The programne is started either by XEQ'PHASE' or by pressing key

X<->Y in user rccde.

.
A sample run is presented in Appendix 1 •
The programne will prompt the user for the input of three time
series: PROJ, NOPR and INCR NB (see definitions above) .•
Time series can be input from card or directly. MAXDEV is requested
first.

For direct input, name and yearly values are called for. It is then
possible to list values, correct them (as well as the name) or read a new
card, store the variable on card.
Data storage on card is compatible with TS ana RPV programmes. It is
thus possible to use as input a series of values prepared using the TS (time
series) prograrrrne, or to use the results of a phasing calculation as an
 ANNEX 3 - PHASE 3

input for. P-PV (Rate of return/Present values calculations). After input of

the three time series, the question 'IOI' RESULT? is displayed (if N, it will
be incremental results), and the calculation is performed.

READY is displayed at the end of a run.

Using the upper keys, it is then r,ossible to change some of the

input data, in any order, and perform new calculations on the current data.
The keys are:

A input PROJ - a (shift A) list/edit/store PROJ

B input NOPR - b (shift B) list/edit/store NOPR
C input INCR NB - c (shift C) list/edit/store INCR NB
D total/incremental results - a: display/edit result name
E calculations - listing/storage of results.
 !mrEX 3 - PH.ASE
APPENDIX 1 1

PHASE - SAMPLE RUN

(Printer in NORM mode)

1. Input of with project values from card - Listing - No change

Direct input of without project values - Listing - No change
Storage: the display RDY 01 OF 01 does not get printed.

XEQ ·PHASE·
PROJ HAX DEV?
6.00 RUH
CARD?
RIJH
LlST?
RUH
F'RCIJ -WHEAT
YR0=10.00
'r'Rl=15.00
YR2=20.00
YR3=35.00
YR4=30.00
YR5=35.00
YR6=40.00
CHAHGE?
H RUH
STORE?
H RUH
HOPR MAX DEY?
3.00 RUH
CARD?
H RUH
NOPR NAl'IE?
TR WH RUH
TR MH YR0?
10.00 RUH
TR WH YRI ?
12.00 RUH
TR MH YR2?
14.00 RUH
TR 1,/H YR3?
15.00 RUH
usn·
RUH
HOPR -TR MH
'r'R0=10.00
'r'Rl=12.00
'r'R2=14.00
':'R3=15.00
c.Hill,IGE?
t~ RUH
::TO~:E?
RUN
 ANNEX 3- PHASE
APPENDIX 1 2

2. Direct input of phasing variable - Listing - Editing of a year with copy

to end - new listing.

IHCR HB HA:~ DH?

4.00 RUH
UlRfl?
N RUH
IHCR H8 HAME?
Hil RUH
fig YR! ~·
10.00 RUh
,;,
HP. YR2
20, tH3 RUN
HA 'r'F.'3 ·~·
313.00 RUH
HA YR4 ·)

0.00 RUH
LIST?
H RUH
CHAHGE?
RUH
CARD?
H RUH
HA
RIJH
HA-YR?
3.00 RUH
'iR3=30.0~?
0.00 RUH
COPY TO EHD?
RLIH
LIST?
RLIH
. IHCR HE: -HA
'rll =18. 00
'iR2=20. 00
YR3=0.00
CHAHGE?
N RUH
STORE',
H Rllh
 ANNEX 3 - PHASE
APPENDIX 1 3

3. Calculation of total results - Listin~ - Keys D,d ahd E used to specify

incremental results, change name and rerun calculations.

TOT RESULT?
'r' RUH
RESULT HANE?
TOT PR RUN
LIST?
RUN
TOT RESULT-TOT PR
YR0=3ti0. 00
YRI=390.00
rn2=s00.00
'r'R3=750. 00
'r'R4= 11 000. 00
YR5=950.00
YR6=1, 100.00
'r'R7=1,200.00
YRS=!,200.00
STORE?
H RUH
F:EADY
xrn ri
TOT RESIJLT?
H RUH
READY
XEQ d
TOT PR
IHCR P RUH
REAIIY
XEQ E
LIST?
Rllii
IHCR RESLILT-IHCR P
YR0=0.00
YR1=30.01J
YR2=80.00
'r'R3=300. 00
YR4=550.00
YR5=50&.00
YR6=650.00
YR7=750.00
YRS=750.00
~:TORE?
H hir;
RHID'r'
 .ANNEX ;.} - PH.ASE 1
APPENDIX 2

PHASE Programme
Annotated Listing
Flags used: 00: SET if total results - 01: for YES/No -
02: set during initial input - 03: project values -
e.1 •L2L "F'h~'~E' 04: without project values - 05: number of units -
C~ 03 CF 04 CF~~ 06: set when ~AXDEV = max life - 07: list of results -
SF 24 SF 27 SF 02 08: used in edit - 24: user mode - 27: ignore overflow -
CLRCi 21: printer control - 25: ignore error.

09+LBL 2l:I. 20: test on SIZE

SF 25 RCL 88 FS?C 25
GTO 21 ·XEQ SIZE 089"
FiOMPT GTO 20 ·
17+LBL 21 21: Module calling successively for the input of all data
XEQ A XEQ B XEQ C and the calculation
XEQ D ·RESULT HAKE?"
AOH PROHPT ROFF
ASTO 66 XEQ E CF 02
GTO ·R·

30+LBL A A, B, C: New input of project values, without project

SF 03 44 STO 04 45 values and number of units respectively
STO 01 XEQ "IHP· RTH Address of MAXDEV stored in 04
Address of year zero value stored in 01
38+L8~ 8
SF 04 21 STO 04 22
STO 01 XEQ "INP" RTH
46+LBL C
SF 05 6 STO 04 7J
STO 01 XEQ "IHP" RTH
54tl8L Ii Flag 00 set if total results, clear if incremental
·TOT RESULT?· XEQ •y•
'i~F 00 FS? 01 SF 00
FS? 02 · RTH GTO "R"
63+LBL ~ a, b, c: Listing/editing/storing of PROJ, NOPR and
SF 03 44 STO 04 IN~R NB values respectively
GTO "LST·

68+LBL b
SF 04 21 $TO 04
GTO "LST"

73+LBL G
SF 05 6 STO 04
GTO ·LST·
78+LBL ct
CLA P.RCL 66 AO.~ .
d: Editing of result name
PROMPT AOFF ASTO 66
GTO ·R·
 ANNEX 3- ffi.AS E 2
APPENDIX 2

Calculation algorithm:
For each year J = 1 to phasing period do:
If result is total then ·
for each year N = 0 to J-1 do RES(N) = RES(N) + NOPR(N) ~ NB(J)
for each year N = J to MAXDEV of results do
if results are total: value= PROJ(N-J+1)
if results are incremental: value= PROJ(N-J+1) - NOPR(N)
RES(N) = RES(N) +Value~ NB(J)
86+LBL E
RCL 21 RCL 44 X<Y? MAXDEV of PROJ and NOPR in 44 and 21, of Phasing in 06
X<>Y RCL 06 + 1 . -
20 X)Y? X<)Y STO 67 MAXDEV of results stored in 67
.020 STO 00 68 STO 01
GTO 08
Results stored in 68 to 88 initialized to zero
104+LBL 08
0 STO IND 01 "1 :3T+ 01 year counter in 00, addresses in 01
!% 00 GTO 0:3 ~ 1.t,
1 E3 1 1 + STO 00 J counter for main loop set in 00
GTO 01

118+LBL 01 Start main loop

RCL 80 !HT 7 + NB(J) address in 02
STO 82 FC? 00 GTO 23 First N loop skipped if result is incremental
8 - 1 E3 1 STO 01 N counter from Oto J-1 stored in 01
GTO 02

132+LBL 02 Start of first N loop

XEQ ·s· RCL !HD 03
RCL IHD 02 * NOPR(N) * NB(J) added to previous value of RES(N)
ST+ IHD 04 ISG 01
GTO 02

140+LBL 23 N counter set for second loop

RCL 67 1 E3 1 RCL 00 N = J to MAXDEV of results
IHT . / STO 01 GTO 09

149+LBL 09 Start second N loop

;,;EQ·s· RCL 01 IHT
RCL 00 !HT - 46 + Address of PROJ(N-J+1) calculated in X
RCL IHD X RCL IND 03 NOPR(N) substracted if results incremental (flag 00)
FC? 00 - FS? 00 X<>Y
RCL IHD 02 *
ST+ !HD 04 ISG 01 End 2nd N loop
GTO 09 ISG 00 GTO 01 End main J loop
SF 0l 67 STO 04 Flag 07 set to list results
TOHE 8 TOHE 6 Address of MAXDEV-Results stored in 04 for list
GTO "LST" Two beeps warn that calculation is tenninated

Subroutine 'S': sets RES(N) address in 04 and

NOPR(N) address in 03
 A1l1IBX 3 - PHASE 3
APPENDIX 2
177tl8L '!HP~.
INP: Input of time series
CF 06 XEQ ·HD'
·1-K~X DEY?• 20 FS? 05
12 PROMPT X=Y' SF 06 Input series corresponding to status of flags 03/04/05
:on GTO ·JHP· Input years 0 or 1 to ~AXDEV and copies to the end
STO IHD 04 STO 03 1 E3 of series (20 or 12 years) by calling 'CPY'
,· STO 00 1 FS? 05 Year counter in 00, ~AXDEV address in 04, yearly values
ST+ 00 FS? 05 ST+ 01 address in 01
·CARD?· XEQ ·y·
FC?C 01 GTO 40
203+LBL 22 On option, input from card. Data on card same as with
XEQ ·CRD· RDTAX RCL 03 RPV and .time series programmes
RCL IHD 04 X>Y? GTO 05
GTO 04

211 tLBL 05 Data on card refused if MAXDEV on card is more than

·WRONG DATA" PROMPT MAXDEV specified initially
GTO •IHP·

215+LBL 40 40: Input of series name

XEQ ·HD" .·1-HAHE?· AOH
PROMPT AOFF XEQ "SH"

222+LBL 03 · 03: Loop to input yearly values

CLA XEQ ·CH" 'I- YR· CN, sub-routine recalls series name for prompt
RCL 00 IHT XEQ ·H·
·1- ?· PROMPT
STO IHD 01 1 ST+ 01
ISG 00 GTO 03

2.36+L8l 04 F" C 1 ob 04: Return to module LBL 21 if initial run

XEQ ·CPY' XEQ 'LST·
FS? 02 RTH GTO ·R·
242tLBL "LST" LST: calls for list/change/store
"LIST? 1 XEQ ·Y·
FS?C 01 XEQ 15 FS? 07
GTO 16 "CHAHGE?·
XEQ •y• FS'C 01 GTO 17
253+LE:L 16 .l§.: clears all flags used
CF 07 CF 03 CF 04
CF 05 ·sr~RE?· XEQ ·v· STORE on card on option
FS?C 01 XEQ 18 FS? 02
RTH GTO ·R·

265+LBL 15 15: Listing of time series - Printer controlled

:;F 21 X~it "HD' ·1--· -by flag 21
:,a ·rn· IWIEW
RCL lHD 04 1 E3 1 Year counter in 00
STO ea RCL 04 i +
STO 01 1 FS? 05 Address of yearly values in 01
ST+ 00 FS? 05 ST+ 01
GTO 07

285tLE:L 07
"YR· RCL 00 INT 07: Loop for listtng
XEQ ·H· ·1-=·
RCL !HD 01 XEJ ..,.

I. fit..' OTlJ
,li.Jl 1\11
 AlTIIBX 3~ PHASE 4
APPENDIX 2

_299+LBL 17
. RCL !HD 04- STO 03
·CARD?· XEQ •y• Possibility of new input from card
FS?C 01 GTO 22 CF 08
CLA XEQ "CH· AOH Name of series is displayed and can be changed
PRONPT AOFF XEQ ·SH·
·~-YR?· 20 FS? 05 12 Editing of a year value
PRONPT X=Y? SF 06 Depending on year changed,
X>Y? GTO 17 X(0? MAXDEV value stored in 04 is adjusted
GTO 17 RCL IND 01 X~)Y Flag 08 set if year corrected is higher than
X)Y? STO !HD 04 X)Y?· previous MAXDEV
SF 08 X=Y? SF 08
STO 02 "YR· XEQ "H" Old value is displayed and can be changed
·I-=" RCL 04 + i +
STO 01 RCL IND 01
ARCL X ·~?· PRONPT Adjustment to MAXDEV depends whether or not
STO IND 01 FS? 06 copy to END is selected
GTO "LST·
·COPY TO END?" XEQ •y•
FS? 01 GTO 19 1
FS? 08 ST+ !HD 04
GTO "LST·

356+LBL 19 19: Copy to end

. RCL 02 STO IND 04
XEQ ·cpy• GTO ·Lsr·

36ltlBL 18 Storage on card

XEQ "CiD" WDTAX RTH
365tlBL ·cpy• CPY: Copies value in year MAXDEV to the end of the
20 FS? 05 12 EHTERt series (i.e. to year 12 or 20)
1 E3 l RCL IHD 04 . +
I + STO 09 RCL !HD 04
RCL 04 + I + STO 01
RCL !HD 01 STO 02 I
ST+ 01 GrO 06
 ANNEX 3, - J:H.ASE 5
APPENDIX 2

388+LBL 06 06: Loop to copy

RCL 02 STO !J~ 01
ST+ 01 !Si~ ae G~O 0f
RTN

396+LBL ·HD" HD: Selects header in ALPHA register, using flags

"IHCR RESULT" FS? 00
"TOT RESULT" FS? 03
"PROJ • FS? 04 "HOPR"
FS? 05 "IHCR HB • RTH
407+LBL "CRD" CRD: Sets X with nwnber of first and last memory
RCL 04 RCL IHD 04 + registers for Read/Write card
+ 1 E3 1 RCL 84 +
- RTH

428+LBL ·R· R: Prompts 'READY'

"READY· PROMPT STOP
424+LBL •y• Y: Flag 00 is set if input is not N (i.e. if yes)
AON PROHPT ROFF
~sro y ·H· ASTO X Flag 00 clear is input is N
Sf 81 X=Y? CF 01 RTH

135+LBL ·H· N: Value in X attached to the content of ALPHA register

FIX 0 CF 29 ARCL X with no decimal digit and no decimal point
fiX 2 SF 29 RTH
442+LBL •y• V: Flag 21 controls printer
SF 21 ARCL X AVIEM Appends content of X to ALPHA register and displays
RTH t
ALPHA register
447+LBL ·s· S: Sets address - See page 2
RCL 01 IHT 68 +
STO 04 46 - STO 03
RTH

457•LBL ·sw SN: Stores name of series, using flags

FS? 03 ASTO 43 FS? 04
A$TO 20 .FS? 05 ASTO 05
RTH

465+Lol •rn· CN: Recalls name of series, using flags

FS' 03 ~RCL 43 FS? 04
ARCL 2ij FS? 05 ARCL 05
FS? 07 ARCL 66 RTH
EHJ
 ~ 3 - PHASE
APPENDIX 2

Storage Plan·
00 to 04 Temporary use for counters/addresses
05 Phasing variable - Name
06 Phasing period ( INCR NB)t-AAXDEVt
07-09 Phasing variable (INCR NB - years Oto 12)
20 Without project - Name
21 Without project max. dev. (NOPR MAXDEV)
22-42 Without project with variable (NOPR - years Oto 20)
43 With project - Name
44 With project max. dev. (PROJ MAXDEV)
45-65 With project unit variable (PROJ - years Oto 20)
66 Results - Name
67 Maxi. dev. oF results
68-78 Results of calculation (years Oto 20)
Requires SIZE 089
Flags used 00 to 08 - 21 - 24 - 25 - 27 (cf. page 1)
Programme size User kevs
and global labels

rnT 1
LBL PHH%:
T
XE'lS

USER KEYS:
2i ·PHASE·
34 SIZE

L8L''i
L8L'H
LBL''r'
LBL'S
LBL'SH
LBL CN
1

EHD 1081 BYTES

.END. 04 BYTES

(155 Registers)
 ANNEX 4

AN EXAMPLE OF MANIP UTILIZATION

The table below has been prepared with the MANIP programme. It is
intended to suggest a standardized way of presenting all summary information
required to evaluate a farm model.

Section A below includes methodological explanatory notes. Section B

describes the content of the MANIP files where the model is stored, to allow
utilization by various users. Section C is an annotated listing of the
calculations performed by the model.
 AN AGR!ClUl'R~L D£Vf.LOPlll:NT PROJECT
A FARII KODEL
Cvrrencr : L.'101
TOTAL IHCOKE AND CASH FLOY PROJ[CTIOHS
::.====== :::::.e::::i::::i::::r.::::t::r.:::========:::::11::z::::,:1t.::::::2::====::x.:::===:t::.::::::z:-==st-----=--=::-2--:c.----=---------::----::%%J::-:r.-::,::-::------ -:-------- --- - - - ---::i:c::: • • -- - -~ -- :i:.:z:-2::----11t2::--::2-:2:ir ----::::r.::,; :l lt

4- J-1983
le1r 2 3 s 7 9 to 11 12 13 14 15 11, 17 18 19 21
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
· -lOT. VAl.Ul: Of PRODUCllOH
4732 sm b251 7275 am 9bb5 9b65 9bb5 91,1,5 9b1,S 9&1,5 91,65 9665 9&b5 9bb5 9b6S 9bbS ms 91,1,5 9bb5 9665
-omu rncot\E I IS! m 450 m 751 900 m 9DU m rn 9D1 m m 900 90I 901 910 900 901 m
l01AL Jlf"LOY 4732 5-199 6551 7725 9972 m1s 10565 IGS65 u~s 10565 ID565 11565 10565 IIS65 !!565 11S6~ 195&5 11565 11~65 11565 I 0565
-IIIV£ST~fNT COSTS
--CWUAllHG COSTS-EX.LAB 451' 5281
m m1
I
mo
I
2501
I I
2701 2701
I
mo
I I
2701
I
2711
3951
2701 2701
I
2700• 2700
I
270~
a I
2701
I
2700
I
2701 2710
I
2791
I
2711
I

--rim LAPOIJ! COSTS

- MIU LAI<OUR COSlS
821
2201
rn
2231
01 I
2171
771
2161
71,i
282U
751
2001
751
mo
751
2m
751
21!1
751
2111
751
ma
751
2!00
m
2!11
750
2011
750
21!!
750
mo mo
r.,o 751
2iil
750
2101
750
2m
751
2101
TOIAl. OUlfLOY me 8?51 4131 4831 5280 5458 5458 5451 sm 5m BSOD 5450 sm sm sm 5451 54S1 ·5451 5-151 5451 mo
~T BEN. BEHRE Flll. 1262 ~mu 2521 .· 2895 3792 ms SIIS 5115 5115 5115 2065 5115 SilS sm 5115 Si!S 5115 5115 SllS 5115 5115
--~A~r\lK'S SH!lR[( IHVESTJ 528 I
-lOII" R[CEIPJS<IHVEST> 4752 2745
-!)(BT sm. LOHG T. LOAN (1~ 713 1142 IH2 1142 1142 IH2 412 660 660 661 661 661 661 I I
-ImmT 1/DU. CAP!ll,L (2 95' 7iJ
198 139 208 m
1142
259 2S9 2S9 259
1142
259
412
259 259
661
259 259 2~9 259 259 259 259 2'59 259
IU rIHANCJHs-OA<R. COSTS -95 44S9 -852 -1351 -1387 -m1 -HI! -1401 -Im -1411 2175 -m -919 -919 -919 -m -919 -m -919 -2S9 -259

"ET BEH[f IT ArTER FI H. 1167 999 161,9 1545 ms 3564 3714 3714 3714 3714 4141 4444 4196 4196 4196 419b 4196 4196 4196 4856 4856

' -VALUE SUP5ISTEHC£ COHS. 2511 2651 2'111 3201 3351 3151 3351 TISI 3351 3]50 3351 3351 3351 3151 3351 J3S1 3351 3351 3351 m1 3351
-FAIIILY LA~OJR COSTS 2200 2230 2171 28!.Q 2021 2000 2m zm 2m 2161 20ll 2m zm mo mo mo mo mo mo 2911 2001

NET CASH BALANCE 867 57V 939 405 1175 2m 231,4 2364 2364 23M 27'11 3194 284& 2846 2846 2846 2946 2846 2946 3516 3S16

I HCl. HE 1 CAS!I BALAl!CE -298 72 -462 21? 1347 1497 1497 1497 1m 1923 2228 i'ltll 1?81 1981 1980 1980 !?Bi
22897
19al
2487/,
2641
2751 b
2m
JOISS
-469 0791 lli18 12998 H978 16957 18?37 21917

~
LUIU.. INCi. CASH BAL • -288 -216 -1,77 879 2376 3873 5371 6868
-- 1,01 so v LT mru {3) I rn 568 813 m 648 m 517 461 412 369 329 m 419 374 334 299 21,o 2l8 I I
--lHl .WC,,K.C/>l'ITAUDEfll (J) es 91, 125 185 218 231 231 23! ·231 231 231 231 231 231 231 231" 231 231 231 2)1 231

HE! CASH BAL. t DEFLJ an bb7 1199 757 1518 2736 ms 3117 3173 3122 21161 3216 3164 3115 3160 )201 323b 3267 3296 3534 J'.iJ4

IND.HO CASH BAl.tOffll -211 221 m 1859 2178 210 2196 2245 19\H 2329 2187 2239 2283
-121 2323 2359 2391 2419 2657 2657
CUr1.JL. IIU .~l>t.. I.DUL> I -2!1 11 m 2391 m9 1,oi? 8805 11151 . 1313'.i 15343 17'551 !97B9 22071
-109 24394 21.7'53 29113 31562 34219 ]6676
-----------%-::----------------------r:-----------------=----:::::t"!llt:::-·-:::z:==-~==:=::c:t%%--z:::---=:=~-.::=--::.=::i:=======-=======::.:::::.:==:::.:-....::a::::::11t:::tz=::.zs:::::::======z=:
!I} Int ens I rate \SI p.a. - 2 years grace and 7 7ears r'l)ay~ent
(2) l~l p.1. 1n total 1pen11nq ~1s1s for 6 ADnths
13> AssvAinq IZI p.a. constant inFhti1n rate
 ANNEX 4 3

E:x:planato:r.y Notes _on~Methodology

Cc:sh Ir.flo\·' .=m:l OutfJ.ow

'I'o ~ e}:pressed in constant pr ices.

~ot2.l '/2.lue of ?ro:::uction

G::-oss va1 ue of .Ear:-n out:=iut, incJ.u'.::'.in9 2.lJ. prcx"uction, w:-iether ,'
SO.:..G
or cons~1:-22 on t~e farn.

Ot!12r Income

To !::ie incluc:ed only if changes occur !:ecause of the project: for

exa~le, a reduction in off-farm income because of increased on-farm labour
use related to the farm development proposal, or an increase in income
resultin'? from hiring out of oxen purchased as part' of the investrrent
programme.

Invest.'nent Costs
Incluoes both initial investment and subsequent replacement costs.

ODerating Costs

The distinction betNeen operating costs (excluding labour), hireo

labour costs anc family labour costs, facilitates subsequent economic
analysis and acjustments.

Debt Service - Long Term Loan

Interest anc capital repayment expressec in current terr.s (i.e. at

the rate of interest p!"ev2iling. in the country) generally as a capital
recoverv factor. Footnote assumptions on interest rate, grace an::3 repayment
pcrio::s.

Interest on ~-~o."."kino Caoi tal

('.,e;1e!:"2lJ.'l to 1-:'2 calculated on the \·'orkina ca.Di. ta] recuire:.;1?r:ts for
the est i_;-:-:atec' ?2rioC: t>:>t<·•een the tiITB when ex!)enci ture' is incur re( c:m:~ the
tirr€ of rec~i!)t of !)2-'.':-rr:1ents for ~ales. The current interest ::-?.te is usef.
?ootnot~ ,?.~su~tio;;s o:: J?rO?Qrtion of O:.)erating costs 2.ssu_:c?~ to be coverec:
by 1.•orl: i.:-ic: cc::::/_ tell :'.c.:ms, perio~ outst2n:~ins anr) annual interest :::-ate.
 ANNEX. _A. 4

-.,_.,._~"
:_.,..:; L.C:
~ c·, ...
I; . .;,.'-'•'
,-.~,,n
- - ._.•_ C2sh ?osition

~o :--'2 su::::t!:"2ctc.: :ro::: !'.et ?er,efit after ~ir.ar.cing.

Far:iil \I Lacour Costs

':'o ':,e ac~(2c1 to t'et :::-.enef it after Financing (figures to corres::on~

\·.'i th t'."1ose alre2.cy sha.:n in c2.sh out flow) .

Inflation

::here it is necessary to introduce adjustments to take account of

ir.fl?.tion, t::e foJ.~.rn-:ing ste?s 2.re reco~n~ec:

T"\r,C1
!.l'"\..:1-- at•
• r.r1 !"'\o\..,t
J... _ ... , ~ ........J C:pr,7,
•• -.1..\. 4
Ce onl Lonn-term
'') \ ,:;,; r,;:,nc1' ng
.L. --·~-" ! •

T\~e a.n.nua:i_ cebt service on J.ong term financing is cieflated at

specified rates applied cumulatively from the year in which G~e
financing. is first acvanced. If a second batch of financing is
assumed (as in year lO of the specimen table) , the tirre at i.,,hich
this is introduces shoulc, of course, again iJe treated as t.~e
inital year for calculating the corresponding deflation factor.
However, \·.'hen a loan is cisbursed over more than a year (but is
treated as a single credit o:;>eration), loan receipts other than
the first year should also be ceflated. ~·]hen applying the t,:l~·.JIP
program;;e \·:i th the pre-cef ined operations, users not 'v.'ishing to
utilise this feature, may follO\·, ti~e alternative version of t.lie
pre-(:efinec sequences an~ exclude ~~e deflated lines. Foot.note
assumed cef~ation rates.

Deflatino Interest on Workinq Capital

The interest. pc.yment (in current terms) should be deflated on a

yearly basis by the estimated inflation rate applying to t.he
particular year (i.e. using a simple rather than cumulative
deflator). Footnote interest rate aSSl.Iffii?tions.

B.. Use of v~~-rr? for Preoar ing Cash-flow Anal vs is Tables

A pre-cef:ned rr10deJ. is available within a set of files called

( P!:D.JECI') C'.ASH-FI.a·: •

It includes·:

i) 28 !)rC-,~<?finec Vc.t'iabJ.es, as foJ.10\·.'S:

 ANNEX. 4 5

l. 'J"" t2l 1.·a:.m· of p,·o:5uction

~. Oth2 r I r.CCi".1e ·
3. '::'otaJ InfJ 01·.'
~. Inv~st.'T:ent Costs
5. O:)er;:ting Costs - exclu:"li_ng 12.!::our
G. Hired La.hour Costs
7. Far:ii:.y ·I...a!:.-our Costs
8. Interest on 1·7orking Capital
9. 'Total Outflow
10. !7et Senef it P.efore Financing
,_.!..
, Farm-?r's Share (Invest.ment)
12. . Loan .?ecei!)ts (Ir.vestrirent)
13. D2bt ~ervice Long 7erm Loan
H. ~·et ?::.nancing - current Costs
net Financing - C€fl2.tec:
,
15.
,..
..L \ ) .net Benefit after Financing
17. Halue Subsistence ConSL1J1Ption
18. net Cash Ealance
19. Incremental Net cash. Ealance
20. Cumulative Incremental Cash Balance
Inflater (Cumulative)
.,21.
~<-.
')
Farmer's f~are Factor
23. Inflater (Ar".nual)
24. · Interest on I,Jorking capital (Def lated)
25. Debt Service Long •rerm (Deflated)
26. !!et Cash Balance (Deflated)
27. Incremental Net Cash Balance (Deflated)
28. Cumulative Incremental Balance (Deflate€!)

Note: For the preparation of the example table (Table 1), all values were
set at zero except variables 21 and 23 (set at 12% constant
inflation) anc1 variable 22 1;1hich was set at 1 in year J. For
variable 21, the rate of inflation has b2en applied only from year
2 since ceflation of 1st year repayment is covered by variable 23.

ii) A pre-defined sequence of operations to perform the necessary

calculations (see C. belo1·. 1
) •

iii) Pre-cefined table forITB.ts (~;o. 1 1-- ithout deflated lines and No. 2
1

,., i th def la tee] lines) . · See Tab le 1 above.

 ,:ANNEX 4 6
C, Pre-Defined_Secu~nce_for_C2sh-Flow Proiections

Seq~ence of :~erations No CASH FLOw

: Sel2cte1 o~eration =AX+ BY+ C

X = 1 --l8T.VALJE OF PRODUCTION
Y = 2 --GHIER INCOME
P2,aMe1er A= 1.00
ParaMeter B = 1.00
?araMeter C = 0.00
Result in ucricble No, 3 TOTAL INFLOW

2 : Selected operation =Balance & switching values

Varia~le Weight
No, COSTS-EX.LAB
5 --0:U.ATING O.08 These weichts provide the basis for calc1lating
2 No. 6 --HIRED LABOUR COSTS O. 08 working c~~1tal requireMents and Must be adius1e
Bali~ce in variatle No. 8 --INTEREST ~ORK. CAPITAL depending.on interest rate, period and propirtio1
RoR and sw:tchinq values NOT to be calcuiatEd cf aµerat1nq cos1s

3 : Seifcted c,eration =Bclance &switching u2lues

Vcriatile ~!e,gh t
No. 4 --IWESTMENT COSTS 1. 00
2 No. 5 --:J~·EqATING CDSTS-EX.LAB 1. 00
3 t,;o, b --lnkED LABD\JR CDS1S 1. 00
4 No. 7 -F AHILY LABOUR COSTS 1. 00
Baiance in variable No, 9 TOTAL OUTFLOW
RoR and switching values NOT to be calculated

4 : Selected operation =AX+ BY+ C

X= 3 TOT~L :NrLOW
Y = 9 T07AL OGTFLOW
FaroMetei A= 1.eo
P2ra~e~er B = -1,00
ParaMeter C = 0.00
Result in varicble Ho, 10 NET BEN. BEFORE FIN.

5 : Select~c operation =AX+ B

X = 4 --INV~STMENT COSTS Long terM loan assuMed to be a
Parare~er A= 0.90 oiven percentdqe of total invest~ent
P2raMeter B = 0.00 {to be adjusted by user)
Pesult :n variable No. 12 --LOAN RECEIPTS(INVEST)

6 : Selected operation =AX + BY + C

X= 4 --!~V~ST~[NT COSTS
Y= 12 --L0~S RC:EIPTS(INVESTJ
Pa a~e er A= 1.00
Pa ,~.e er B = -1,00
? 2 aMe er C = u. &O
Re ult :n vari.ole No. 11 --FARMER'S SHARE(INVEST)
 7 : Selene: o~erat10n =AXY + B FarMer's share of initial investMent equals
total inuestMe~t Mlnes loan 2nd hence factor
X= II --~;~w~~·s S~~RE(lNVESTl Df] should b2 ao~If~a durin; lniti~l inu~S1M2nt
~ = 22 F~~~c;·s S~A~E FACTOR periodi· to exclude farMer's share froM calculation
ParoMeter A= l.00 of rep _acer.ent costs 1 apply f6ctoi = 0
Pa,a~ete~ B = C.CO
~esolt in uc,:otle No. 11 --FARMER'S SH;RE(INVEST)

8 : Selected ioeration =AXY + B

X = 12 --Lo.:;.; REEIPTS ( INVEST l loans received in years beyond year 1 are inflated
Y = 21 lH;LATQR (CUMUL.) (uar!able 21 s~auld be set so that inflation rate
Par2~eter A= 1.00 is applied only froM year 2)
PareMeter B = 0.00
Result in v2riable No.-12 --LOAN RECEIPTS(INVEST)

9 : Selected operation =Debt service on X

Debi serv:ce calculated on variable No. 12 --LOAN RECEIPTSIINVESTl Debt service calculatfd on inflated loan
A~n~a! 2~c~n~s ~reet?d as seoarate loans (loan characteristics ta be adjusted by user)
Lean~ a;s.~e~ ~6 be disbursed by beginning of year
In~e~est ~c·e = 15.QO:;::
~~2ce :er1c~ = .2 ve~rs - In12~est p~id dur:nq grace period
~e~a?~~r· :e-:c: = 1 uear5 - taual 1nstalMents
lctal del' ~2·v1ce sto~ed 1n u2iiable Na. 13 --DEBT SERV. LONG T. LOAN
~epay~en1 ~5~!rej by e~d af year

10 : Selfc'ed aaeration =AX/Y + B

X= 12 ~LQ~~ RECEIPiS(!NVE'ST} lnan receipt back to original values
Y= 21 l~~LA1~R (CUMUL.)
PcraMeter A= !.SO
?ar.~eter B = O.OG
Result in vari~ble No. 12 --LOAN RECEIPTS(INVEST>

11 : Sel!:·c~e~ o~e.ation =AX/Y + B

X= 1~ --DEBT SE~V. LONG T. LOAN Debt seru1ce is new deflated cuMulatively fro" year
Y = 21 lh;1-A 1QQ (CUl",UL.) followina tie loan (whether 10, initial lo2n or for
Pa,cMetei A= 1.00 replaceMer.t lGan)
ParaMeter B = D.00
Result in ~a~iable No. 13 --DEBT SERV. LONG T. LOAN

12 : Selec1ed operation =AX/Y + B

X = 13 --~EBT SERU. LONG T. LOAN Debt service now deflated fr one ~are y ~r tna~-
Y= 23 IN;L~TQR (ANNUAL> cunulatiuelvl, i.e. fron ye r of loan (t 1s ass~Mes
?araMete; A= 1.0C interest paid at e~d of per ad, and not n advance)
FaiaMe~er B = 0.00
~esult 1n v2r1oble No. 25 --D~BT SERV LT (DEFLi

13 : Selecte~ rperation =A~/i + B

x = s --r~T~;~s: ~2RK. CAPITAL
Y = 23 :Ii::..: 1P '.Ali'.WAU Interest on ~u,king capital deflated
?a~a~e,er A= 1.00 (non-cuMulativelyl ·
Par~M2ter B = G.CO
Resolt in variaJle N~ .. .24 --INT.WORK.CAPITAL(DEJ='U
 8
14 : Sele-c:1oc oc:-ration =Bal2nce; switching values
Var1~b!e ~eight
1 r-io. 11 --F~.;.~ER'S SYPEO~','EST) 1.00
2
3
I~~'
110,
l2 --/·:~ t~~E~~I~·l;~!<'~2l)
<.'.4 --:i,:.l._,n,-.r1c'!!r:..(,i::.rU
1.00
-1.0~
4 ~o, 25 --'.GT SE?:~1 LT rDCrU -t ,QO
Balarce 1r, 1•gla~:e So. 15 N~T FlNA.'iCING - DEFLATED
RoR and sw11c~lnq values NJT ,c be calcola1ect

15 : Se!ec1ed operation =De~t service on X

~ett se~u:ce calc~l2trd 0n va~ia~le No. 12 --LOAN RECEIPTSIINVESTl
Anne~l ~"0Uij'.S t~eated as seD2rate loans
Loa~s assb"ec to be disbursed by beqi~ning of year Debt service calculated on
In•erest rate= IS.OD Z non-deflated loan aAounts
G~2ce oeriod = 2 vea,s - Inte~est paid durinu arace period
Re2avMent ~e~iod = 7 years - Ecual instalAenis"
Total debt ser,:ce stored in v~riable No. 13 --DEBT SERV. LONG T, LOAH
Repay~enl ass,"e~ by end of year

lb : Sele:tea cpera1i1n =t2l;nce &swi1ching values

Var1;~!e ~eight
ti:,, 1: --,:.~f~P'S S~~1~'.>'J[ST) 1.00
2 ~o. :::: --LJ~N '.;'::T:IPT~:::;•.)[:;T)· 1.~0
3 No. --D~BT SERV. LSXG T. LOAN
!~ -1 .00
4 /lo. --INiEP.ES1 WORK. CF,'ITAL
t' -1.00
Balance 1n 1,tunle No. 14 NCT FI~ANCING-CURR. COSTS
RoR and switching values NOT to be calculated

17 : Selecte~ aoeration =AX+ BY+ C

X= !O N~T DEN. BEFORE FIN.
Y = 14 NET F!EA~C:NG-CURR. COSTS
Par,~e'e~ P. = : .00
Par,re1er B = 1.80
ParaMetet C = 0.00
Res~lt 1n vJria~le No. 16 ~ET P.CNEFIT A~TER FIN.

18 : Selected operation =Balance &switching values

V6rl ~le Weight
t No. l ~:T EEN:::Fa AFTER rm. I .CO
2 No. --Fi'..,~ILYLABQ.12CGSTS 1.00
3 No. 1 --v;LUE ~U~S13TE~CE CONS. -1 .OD
fala;;ce :n 3•12:,12 Nv, :8 /CT C?c~H BALANCE
~oR a~d s~: ch1ng values NOT 10 be calculated
 .ANNEX 4 9
19 : Selec'.ed operation =IncreKental values over year 0
X = 18 N(1 C~$H BALANCE
Resu~t 1n v2r!able No, 19 INSR. NET CASH BALANCE

20 : Selecte~ ope·~tion =CuNulative values of X

X = !~ I~:R. N£T CASH BALANCE
l~'.:.ii.E">i:':1;,L rn~. va!ues
Result 1n var1able No. 20 CU1UL. INCR, CASH BAL.

21 : Sehctec ooeration =AX+ BY+ C

X = iu NE1 Wt BEFORE FIN.
Y=15 ~ET ,l~ANCIN~ - DEFLATED
Para~eier A= 1.00
Par2Meter B = 1.80
F~rane12r C = 0,00
Res,lt in v~~1aole No. 26 NET; CASH BAL.(DEFL)

22 : ;ele(~ed operation =Balance &switching values

V~r1~jle ~eight
~0 2L ~~T C~SH BAL.(DE;ll 1.OD
2 "-:, 7-F.:~'.'...YU:E:QiJRCOSTS· :.OO
l ~0. i7 --V~L~~ SU~S!ST~~c: CONS. -1 .00
lal,;,:e ;, ,.,~ 1.ble ~Jo, 26 N~T CASH BAL,UiEFLl
0

RoR and ~Wl1C~ing values NOT to be calcula1ed

23 : Selec1ec operation =Increttental values over year 0

X = 26 i'ET C~S!\ BAL, (DEFL)
Ref~l t :n van ab le No, 27 INCR. N£T CASH BAL.,(DEfl)

24 : Sel~cted operation =Cu~ulative values of X

X = 27 H!CR, ~T CASH BAL, (DErU
INCRE~ENlAL CbM, values
~es~lt in var:able No, 28 Cll~\UL,INCR.BAL,(DEFU

25 : Selected operation =Display/Print X

X = i 9 1tCR . ~Ii Ct.SH BALANC[
Printer 1s TErMINAL
No of c~ci~al ciqits :

2~ : Selec1ed operation =Display/Print X

' - '~
~-: Cl -!r1\..-f's,,~~.,.
.~., ,.~T C'SH .~
BAL (D'"Fl)
It
rr int '?1' 1s T:.Ri'\J.NAL
~, c: ~ec1tta: digits
 ANNEX 5

(9J QJJ 0

CENTRE D'INVESTISSEMENT
~;:a.aw aw MV.W&O WSJUiSf. h WW.l!'

ORGAJ',;JSA110N DES NJ/DONS UNTES POUR L'ALlMENTATION ET L'AGRICULTURE

ROME
 ANNEX 5

MADS III USER'S GUIDE

Table of contents

A. General description

B. Data structuring and other basic concepts

1. General approach

2. Fundamental concepts: commodity, activity, plan

3. Basic calculation modes: a~nual and phasing

4. More data types: investments, loans, aggregates, transfers

5. Standard calculations

6. Sub-periods within the year

7. Some comments

C. Getting started

D. Creating a data base

1.Preparing the text file

2.Data consistency

.E. Processing a plan

1. Calculations

2. Transfer to MAN IP

F. Editing the data base

1.How to do it

2.Effect on stored calculation results

G. Examples

1 .A simple example

2.The case of labour

Appendices: 1. TED (Text editor) beginner's guide

2. A sample run showing menus and prompts
3. A.full (simple) example
2 ANNEX 5

MADS III

Multipurpose Agricultural Data System (Version III)

User's guide

A. General description

This programme allows the user to create a data base representing an

agricultural development project and to perform various calculations on it.
The data is structured into various data types, and the programme borrows
the basic concepts of data structuring (commodities, activities, plans) from
MADS, a package developped by OECD for several member countries, and various
features from MADS II and DASI, two similar programmes developped by FAO
(DDC and ESP Divisions).

The data must be prepared in a text file, (this file is called the
source file), using a standard text editor. It is then processed by MADS III
to create the data base. The programme is organized into five module
corresponding to the various functions performed. They are:

- Start: used at the beginning of any run, either to create a new set
of data files or to access an old data set created duiing a previo~s
run. A data ~et is using several files (five), the names of which
are generated from a generic name given by the user (length = 1 to 4
characters). One of these files is the so called output file
discussed at the end of this chapter.

Creating a new data base: to process a given text file where data is
specified in text form (such a .file is called the source file), thus
creating various data files. The process includes various checks on
data consistency. The module is called automatically when a new set
of data files has been created by the "Start" module. It can be
called by the user to replace the data base by a new one, from a
different (or after modification of a) source file.

- Listing the data base: to print tables presenting the data.

- Processing a PLAN: to perform calculations on the data and print

tables with the results, or copy the results to files that can be
accessed afterwards by the MANIP programme (1) for further
processing.

- Editing the data base: changes that do not affect the structure of
the data b~se (i.e. changing the value of various parameters) can be
done from within the programme. Other changes will require to
terminate the programme, modify the Source file with the text
editor, enter the programme again, and perform the "create" module
with the modified source file.

(1) See HANIP user's guide.

 ANNEX 5 3

After the "Start", the other four modules can be called in any order
to perform the various operations. The programme is interactive and the user
selects the various options from menus and questions displayed on the
terminal.

Four options are available for printing the data base or the results
of calculations:

- the terminal CRT (80 characters/line).

- The line-printer (132 characters/line).

~ The HP (Hewlett-Packard) printer (227 characters/line).

- The output file (227 characters/line).

The output file is a file created by the programme using the same
generic name as the data set, and the suffix T (e.g.: if generic name is
TEST, the output file will be TEXT-T: TEXT). Any information printed into
the output file can be accessed at the end of a MADS run by using the text
editor programme (TED). It can then be looked at, modified, and printed like
any other text. Note that the output file is emptied at the begining of a
run.
4 ANNEX 5

8. Data structuring and other basic concepts

1. General approach

The data representing an agricultural development project can be

organized in the form of "variables", i.e. time series of values, for a
given number of periods corresponding to the analysis, associated with a
name. Usually, the period will be the year, and on option year zero will be
included in the series as a way to represent - when it is assumed constant -
the without project situation. Each variable represents a cost or benefit
item in a project (in quantities or in values), and a farm model or a full 1

project will be no more than the algebric sum of a number of these

variables. The MANIP programme is based on this approach: it allows to enter
a set of variables in memory and to perform various operations on it.
Assuming that the programme includes a sufficient set of functions to
perform basic calculations on the variables, this approach proves to be very
easy to understand by the user, and very flexible. The draw back is that
every step of calculation has to be explicitely specified.

Another possible approach consists in organizing the data (the

"variables" of the first approach) depending on the nature of the
information represented by this data, so that it becomes possible to pri-
define, within the programme, a number of standard calculations and output
tables. The most obvious way is a hierarchical structure: the lowest level
is the crop, defined by a yield and inputs requirements; crops are combined,
together with investments, into farm models, themselves aggregated into sub-
areas or project components, and finally at project level. The main benefit
from this approach is that the user would specify the data according to
categories that correspond to concrete realities. But the power and the
flexibility of a programme based on this approach will depend directly on
the variety of pre-defined data categories, pre-defined calculations, and
pre-defined output tables.

The MADS approach wants to be a compromise between the two above

approaches, i.e. between the table manipulation (spreadsheet approach) and
the detailed data structuring. The idea is to structure the data to allow
pre-defined calculations and output tables, but to limit the number a data
types by using a different organization criteria: data is not organized on
the basis of what it represents (e.g. crop yield, ~abour), but on the basis
of the type of calculations to be performed on it: all informations
requiring the same type of calculations can be groupped within the same data
type.

2. The fundamental concepts: commodity, activity, plan

The calculations to be performed to evaluate an agricultural

development project all correspond to the following general problem:
calculate, at various future dates, a number of costs and benefits. These
costs and benefits often correspond to physical quantities multiplied by
prices; it can be said that they correspond either to the consumption or to
the production of specific commodities (e.g. consumption of fertilizer,
production of wheat grain), the only difference between a consumption and a
production being the algebric sign. When costs or benefits are specified
directly in values, it is always possible to represent them as production or
consumption of quantities of an imaginary commodity with a price equal to
one. It is thus possible to represent all costs and benefits within a
project as consumptions and productions of various commodities.
 5

A commodity is defined by its name and price; more precisely a name,

a unit, and a time series of unit prices.

To be able to specify, in our model, consumptions and productions of

commodities, we call activity everything that consumes or produces
commodities. A typical activity is a crop: 1 ha of sorghum, that produces
grain and straw and consumes labour, seeds, land. But the concept is wider:
the activity cow consumes feed and labour and produces milk (and meat when
it is culled), the activity darn consumes labour and concrete during its
construction and produces electricity and water for irrigation.

An activity is defined by a name, a unit, and a list of commodities;

for each commodity in the list, one has to specify wether it is produced or
consumed, and· the corresponding level ( a time series of values), e.g. the
"level" of the commodity "grain" produced is the yield. The same commodity
can be more than once in the definition of an activity, with different
levels (e.g. yield and post harvest losses).

Various activities can be combined in a linear way into a new data

structure called a ~ . A plan will be, for exemple, the combination of
various crops and other activities into a farm mtidel. A plan can also be
made of other plans, allowing to define a project as a combination of farm
models and other activities.

A plan is defined by a name, a unit, and a list of components, with

their corresponding level. Comp9nents can be activities or plans, but also
commodities or the other data types defined in a following section. The
level of the activity wheat crop represents the area under that crop. The
calculation can be performed in two different ways, annual or phasing, as
explained below, and this also needs to be specified for each component as
part of the sp~cification of a plan.

3. Basic calculation modes: annual and phasing

Let us assume a commodity rice grain, an activity rice, and a plan

rice perimeter specifying the number of hectares of rice being put under
irrigation during a project, as shown below:

Years 0 2 3 4-20
Commodities
Rice grain (ton) 150 150 150 150 150
Activities
rice ( 1 ha)
Rice grain produced 1. 2 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Plans
Rice perimeter
Activity rice 0 100 200 300 0

(incremental hectares - phasing calculation)

The price of rice is constant at 150 per ton. The yield is 1 .2

ton/ha without project, and would gradually increase to 3.5 t/ha with
project. Rice area would be 100 ha in year 1, 200 more in year 2, 300 more
in year 3. Rice production can be calculated in two different ways:

i) If the yield depends on the project's year, the yield for a given
year is multiplied by the total area. In the above example,
production year 3 would be equal to 600 ha x 3 t/ha = 1.800 t. This
calculation mechanism is called the annual mode.
6 ANNEX 5

iil If the yield depends on the age of the activit~. i.e. on the number
of years since a particular unit of the activity got into the
project, the calculation wil have to be done a different way, the so
called phasing mode. In the above example, production in year 3
would be equal to:

100 ha started in year 1 X 3 t/ha = 300

200 ha started in year 2 X 2,5 t/ha = 500
300 ha started in year 3 X 2 t/ha = 600

Total 1.400 t

This example illustrates several important points:

- When defining a plan, it is necessary to specify the calculation

mode for each component. The calculation results will be in total
quantities; when the without project situation is not constant, it
will have to be defined as a different activity (e.g. "rice without
project"), and the incremental values can be calculated by
difference (a plan made of a plan "project" at level 1 and a plan
"without project" at level - 1 with annual calculation mode).

- In the case of phasing mode, it is necessary to specify wether the

level of the component is expressed in total number of units or in
incremental numbers (over the previous year). The level will alway~
be in total numbers in the case of annual mode.

there is no difference, at the level of the specification of an

activity, between an annual crop and a perenial crop: the
specification of the calculation mode is done at plan level.

- It is important to have a clear understanding of the phasing

calculation mechanism, particularly if there are several levels of
phasing calculations.

4. More data types

The concepts of commodity, activity and plan, although very

powerful, are not sufficient to handle a number of commonly required
calculations. Four other data types have thus been introduced, and are
presented below.

(a) Investment

The investment type is used both to allow for a distinction between

investments and operating costs and to provide additional calculation
mechanisms corresponding to some common ways of handling investment costs.

An investment is defined by a name, a unit, and a time series of

unit prices, just like a commodity. Five additional parameters are also
specified:

- investment life: to calculate automatic replacement and residual

value,
 ANNEX 5 7

- percentage for residual value,

- percentage for contingencies,

- percentage and time lag for maintenance (e.g. maintenance cost for a
building are estimated at 5Z of the initial cost, and will be
applied annually from the fourth year).

The number of units of the investment item is specified by the level

of the investment when introduced in a given plan. If an investment is
specified directly in value, the price can be set to and the values
specified as the level within a plan.

(bl Loans

A credit operation can be defined, based on a data item used to

calculate loan amounts and on various parameters on repayment conditions.
The base item can be a commodity, an investment, or an aggregate (defined
below), with values resulting from the calculations of a plan. When the base
item is an investment, only the initial investment per se will be considered
(i.e. investment and contingencies), and not the replacement, maintenance
costs and residual values. The percentage of the base item to be financed is
defined by the level of the loan within a plan.

Credit conditions are defined by six parameters:

- interest rate,

- grace period,

- repayment period,

- interest paid or not during the grace period,

- loan amounts to be considered as a single loan or as separate loans

(having the same conditions),

- repayment as constant instalments or equal capital instalments.

(c) Aggregates

Aggregates are sub-totals, defined by a list of components (up to

30), with a weighting parameter for each component. Components can be
commodities, investments, loaos, or other aggregates. Aggregates are
calculated for a given plan by adding up those items in the list of
components that are present in the plan. For example if an aggregate cereals
is defined as including the three commodities rice, maize and wheat, and a
given plan produces only rice and maize, the aggregate will be calculated
for these two commodities.

Aggregates can be based on quantities or on values of the components

(this changes the effect of the weight). Aggregates are used as such to
calculate sub-totals, or as input to loan amounts calculations, or to
perform rate of return and sensitivity analysis calculations (see below).
8 ANNEX 5

(d) Transfers

Some cost/benefit items of a project cannot be expressed directly

using the activity/plan concept, because they are based on results of
calculations. For exemple, hired labour will be estimated at farm level as
the balance between family labour availability and labour use by the various
activities within the far~ plan. The same applies to a tax based on
production value, or a subsidy based on some input consumption.

Within the so-called transfer mechanism, a commodity, called

transfer commodity (TC) can be added/substracted to a model on the basis of
the values of another data item (commodity or investment), called the Source'
item. This "transfer" is based on the sign of the source in a given year,
i.e. either on a surplus or on a deficit.

When the effect of the transfer is to compensate say a deficit, this

deficit will be offset by a "transfer back" of the source commodity (source
ca•n only be a commodity, and not an investment item, if there is transfer
back).

Example: in a farm model, the commodity "hired labour" is calculated

for the years having a deficit of family labour; this deficit, being
compensated, is put back to zero by a "transfer back" of the commodity
family labour:

Year 1 Year 2

Labour consumed (by crops) 150 120

Labour produced (by family) 130 13 0
Balance before transfer -20 10
Transfer: hired labour -20 0
labour (transfer back) 20 0
Balance: labour 0 10
hired labour -20 0

To summarize, a transfer is defined by a name, a unit, the name of

the source item, the name of the transfer commodity, and the type of
transfer, i.e. based on surplus or deficit, and with or without transfer
back.

The level of a transfer when specified within a plan represents the

ratio source item/transfer commodity. The sign of this level indicates
wet her the transfer commodity is a cost (minus sign) or a benefit to the
plan. In the above example, the level would be - 1 (1 man day of hired
labour charged as a cost for every man da~ of deficit of family labour).

5. Standard calculations

For a given plan, the programme will calculate:

- commodities consumed, produced, transferred; commodities specified

directly within a plan definition are presented together with
commodities transfered, because only their algebric sign specifies
wether they are consumed or produced (depending on the sign of the
level of the commodity in the plan).

- Investments: value, contingencies. maintenance. replacement, and

residual value (at the time of replacement and at the end of project
life).
 ANNEX 5 9

- Loans: amount, debt service, interest and capital components of debt

service, outstanding loan at the end of each year.

- Overall plan balance (in value), and on option rate of return on

this balance (if year zero is included, or is calculated on
incremental values over year zero balance).

- Aggregates.

Results for commodities and aggregates will be in quantities and/or,

values. Results for aggregates and plan balance are presented with an
algebric sign-specifying wether they are a cost or a benefit.

Aggregates can be used for rate of return calculation, the programme

will then produce present values and switching values (1) for the components
of the aggregate.

Any line of results can be copied to a MANIP set of files, for

further processing using the MANIP programme.

6. Sub-periods within the year

The programme does not include any specific arrangement to deal with
sub-periods within the year. The problem can be handled by defining the data
according to the sub-periods: for example, to analyse farm labour on a
monthly basis, twelve commodities would be defined instead of· one (labour~
january, labour-february, .... I. Total annual labour can then be calculated
using an aggregate.

7. Some comments

The flexibility of th~ programme results from defining the

calculations to be performed through the structuration of the data.

The experience shows that the concepts of commodity, activity and

plan are very powerfull and allow to describe a wide range of situations,
but that this requires sometimes some imagination.

The nature and meaning of the results depends directly on the way
the data is specified. Depending for example wether one or several
commodities are used to describe several items in a plan, there will be one
or several lines in the results. The possibility of calculating a certain
project element depends directly on how this element is defined within
activities and plans.

A simple example is presented in the chapter G of this manual and in

appendix 3, to illustrate how the various components of a project can be
translated into the various MADS data structures.

!1 l The switching value, or switching percentage, of a component is the

change in percentage that should be applied to this component, the
others being unchanged, to bring the present value of the aggregate to
zero !for a given discount rate).
10 ANNEX 5

C. Getting started

The programme is available on the DOC-NORSK computer from any

terminal.

After completing the log-on procedure, the programme can be called.

Before MADS III can be used, the data must be prepared in a text
file, using the text editor (TED - Appendix 1 gives some instructions on the
use of TED).

The format instructions are given in chapter D. They are included in

a standard file called MADS-SOURCE, stored in the user space PROJECT, that
also already includes the various headings for the seven data types. The
recommended procedure is as follows:

1. Read with TED the standard file MADS-SOURCE: @TED (PRO)MADS-SOURCE:TEXT.

2. Insert lines with your data, following the specifications included at

the end of the MADS-SOURCE text.

3. Write the file with your own file name (within quotes name if such file
does not exist yet).

To run MADS III, first call the programme: @MADS.

The text of this user's guide can be displayed on option. Follow the
prompts and menus. You will have to give a generic name for your files
(different from the source text file), and to.give afterwards the name of
your source file to create your data base.
 ANNEX 5 11

D. Creating. a data base

1. Preparing the text file (Source file)

Data must be presented in the text file following a certain format.

All lines with key words for each data type, and separators (asterisks) must
be present. The data for each data item must follow certain rules, as
detailed below in the copy of the MADS-SOURCE file (see chapter C above).

Each data item must have a unique name. Names can include spaces,
but must not be longer than the allowed length (they can be shorter if you
respect the TAB instruction).

Here are the most common beginner's mistakes:

- forgetting unit name,

- forgetting an item type (e.g. C or Pl,

- putting the wrong number of values in a time series,

- misspelling an item name when used to define another item (e.g.

commodity within an activity).

The create module will repport on error and wait for the user to
press CR. Some errors will create plenty of artificial errors afterwards;·
better stop the programme using the ESC key, and correct the source file.

An other type of common mistake, not reported by the programme,

relates to errors in data due to mistyping.

Data must always be checked carefully. It is also important to be

carefull about the algebric sign of the·data:

- commodities included directly into a plan must have a negative level

to be counted as a cost,

- the same applies to the level of a transfer into a plan. The

resulting transferred commodity will be a cost or a benefit
depending on the sign of the level.

The MADS-SOURCE file is copied below.

A SAMPLE CASE STUDY PROJECT

MADS TEST DATA SET
·ooo P
0 20
13.00
****************************
COMMODITIES
ENDATA
****************************
ACTIVITIES
ENDATA

INVESTMENTS
ENDATA
12 ANNEX 5

AGGREGATES
ENDA TA
*****************'**********
TRANSFERS
ENDA TA
****************************
LOANS
EN DAT A
****************************
PLANS
ENDA TA
****************************
****************************
FORMAT FOR INPUT
================
Headings :
1st J.ine Project name (max. 50 char.)
2nd line Data set name (max. 30 char.)
3rd line Currency name (max. 1O char.)
4th line Base year (0 or 1) and project LIFE (max. 50 years)
5th line Opportunity cost of capital (in percentage)

Data :
set TAB to 30
FOR ALL TYPES
1st line : NAME (up to 25 char.) - TAB - UNIT (up to 10 char.)

COMMODITIES : 2nd line : Time series of PRICES

ACTIVITLES : For each commodity in the· activity : 2 lines

1st line : NAME - TAB - TYPE
2nd line : Time series of COEFFICIENTS
END on a line at the end of the list of a given commodity
Possible types : C ( for consumed), P ( for produced)

INVESTMENTS 2rd line : Time series of unit prices

Jnd line : 5 numbers : INV. LIFE, TIME LAG FOR MAINTENANCE, 'l.
for
MAINTENANCE COSTS, 'l. of CONTINGENCIES, 'l. for RESIDUAL VALUE

AGGREGATES 2 nd line : VALUES or QUANT

line for each item in the aggregate : NAME - TAB - WEIGHT
Item can be commodity, investment, aggregate or loan.
Number of items is limited to 30 per aggregate.
END on a line at the end of the list of a given aggregate

TRANSFERS : 2st line : TYPE

3nd line : NAME of SOURCE - TAB - NAME of TRANSFER COMM.
Possible types : DEFBACK, DEFWITHOUT, SURPBACK, SURPWITHOUT
If type is DEFWITHOUT or SURPWITHOUT, source can be a commodity or an
investment.
If type is DEFBACK or SURPBACK, source MUST be a commodity.
 ANNEX 5 13

LOANS Jnd line : 3 numbers : GRACE PERIOD, REPAYMENT PERIOD, INTEREST

RATE'l.
3rd line : PAID/NOTPAID - TAB - EQUAL.INST/CONST.CAPIT
4th line : Name of item with LOAN AMOUNTS - TAB - SINGLE/SEPARATE
Item can be commodity, investment, aggregate of commodities
and/or
investments.

PLANS For each item in the plan : 2 lines

1st line : NAME - TAB - TYPE
2nd line : Time series of COEFFICIENTS
END on a line at the end of the list for a given plan
Possible types : A (for annual calc),
PT (for phasing calc - nbr of units is total
PI (for phasing calc - nbr of units is incremental
TR if item is a transfer
Pr and PI can be used on~y for activities and plans.
Possible iten1,, anything but an aggregate.

TIME SERIES

On the same line :

- Type : A(ctual), L(ihear interpolation), C(ompound rate)
- Numbers, depending on type :
A : 1st number : year when values get constant - next : list of values
Number of values MUST be equal to - 1st number .if BASE= 1
- 1st number+ 1 if BASE=O
L, C : 1st number : Value in base year ( O or 1)
2nd and 3rd numbers : First and last year of change
4th number : if L : Value in last years
if C : Compound rate int. (negative if decrease)
ro separate numbers, use only SPACEs (i.e. blanck characters)
(********************************************ilt~iiitt~ttkttttttttttttttt)

2. Data consistency

When processing the source file, the create module will perform a
number of tests on data consistency, and send appropriate messages if errors
are found. They are:

(i) Test on loans: the item used to calculate a loan amount can be
an aggregate; such an aggregate cannot include a loan (financing of a loan
with another loan is not allowed).

(ii) Tests on aggregates: when aggregates are based on quantities,

the following restrictions apply:

- all components must have the same unit (be carefull with the
spelling) and this unit must be the same as the unit of the
aggregate, as it is unlikely to be correct to add quantities that
are measured in different units.

- An aggregate based on values only cannot be a component of an

aggregate based on quantities.

- A loan cannot be a component of an aggregate based on quantities,

because loans are expressed only in values.
14 ANNEX 5

(iii) Test on transfers: a commodity which is used as transfer

commodity in a transfer definition cannot be used as source item for any
transfer in the data base. If this were allowed, the result of transfer
operations could vary depending in which order the transfers are calculated.

Some additional tests on data consistency are performed only when

the calculal1ons of a plan are executed. Corresponding error messages will
be displayed by the programme when the calculations are performed. They are:

(i) Test or transfers: if the investment or commodity item which

make up the source of a transfer activity introduced in a given plan is not
actually component of that plan, then the value of the transfer commodity
will be assumed as zero.

(ii) Tests on loans:

a) The level of a loan within a plan must be positive, as well as the

values of the item used to calculate loan amount; negative values
will be assumed as zero in the calculations. This is because a loan
can finance only costs.

b) If any of the investment or commodity items which make up the loan

amount of a given plan are not actually component of that plan, then
the loan amount over the entire time series will be assumed as zero
since part of the basis for calculation is missing.

c) When the various values in the loan amount lines are to be

considered as a single loan, ~race period must be sufficient so that
the first repayment can take place only after the last loan
instalment has been received. If specified grace period is too
short, the programme will assume the minimum acceptable value.

d) When a loan amount is made of iter~: which price varies with time,
the loan cannot be aggregated into higher level plans using the
phasing calculation mode, as such a calculati~n would give erroneous
results. In such a case, loan amount will be assumed as zero.

e) When a loan specified within a plan is also part of an inner plan

(i.e. plan A contains loan Band plan C, and plan C also contains
loan B), loan will be calculated only for the deepest level (i.e.
for plan C; loan B will be ignored if plan A is calculated).
 ANNEX 5 15

E. Processing a plan

1. C1lculations

Calculations performed are listed in section B-5, and illustrated by

the small example presented in section G and in Appendix 3.

Calculations on quantities of commodities and investments are

performed at once for all the plans defined in the data base. This is done
the first time the calculations module is called after creating a data base,
or when data t'elated to quantities has been changed with the editing module.
If there are many plans (and even more if the system is overloaded), the
calculations might take several minutes; don't be surprised.

The first step (by selecting from the menu on screen) is to select a
plan. If results are required in values, they are to be requested
explicitely (by selecting "calculating values· from the menu).

All results from a given plan can then be printed, except those that
are calculated only if the corresponding option is selected from the menu:

- overall balance, and rate of return on this balance,

- calculations of aggregates, including on option ROR and present

values/swithching values on the components.

2. Transfer to MANIP

Results of a plan can be transfered to MANIP, i.e. written to a set

of disk files that can be accessed later on with the MANIP_programme.

Various facilities are available:

- The MANIP files, if they do not exist yet, can be created by the
MADS programme, and the necessary information copied into them
(Project name, project life, etc.);

it is possible to use, as a generic name for the MANIP files, either

the same name as for the MADS files currently used or any other name
supplied by the user;

- it is possible to list variables in the destination (MANIP) files.

Lines of results from a MADS plan can be copied in bloc or
selectively. They can be either appended to existing data in the
MANIP files, or be written starting from a specific variable number.
, (This feature allows to insert results from MADS into an already
defined MAN IP model). The names of the lines of data copied from
MADS into MANIP can be copied themselves or not;

The lines of results copied from MADS into MANIP will be named using
the name of the corresponding data item, plus a number of suffixes
depending on the type of results. The suffixes are the following:
16 ANNEX 5

for commodities:
-COCO: Commodity consumed - quantities
-COPO: Commodity produced - quantities
-COTO: Commodity transferred - quantities
-COCV: Commodity consumed - values
-COPV: Commodity produced - values
-COTV: Commodity transfered - values

for investment items:

-VALUE: investment value (i.e. cost)
-RPCST: replacement cost
-CONTG: physical contingencies
-MAINT: maintenance cost
-RSVAL: residual values

for loans:
-VALUE: loan value (amounts lent)
-DBTSV: total debt service
-INTCM: interest component of debt service
-CAPCM: capital component of debt service
-OUTLN: outstanding capital at end of year

for aggregates:
-AGGRO: aggregate in quantities
-AGGRV: aggregate in values

for balance:
-PLNBL: plan balance
 ANNEX 5 17

F. Editing .the data base

1. How to do it

Any modification to the data base can be done by modifying the

source file (with the text editor), and processing it again to create from
scratch a new data base.

This is the only possibility for any change that would affect the
structure of the data (e.g. creating or deleting an activity), or that might
affect data consistency (e.g. renaming a commodity name, or the definition
of a transfer).

changes limited to the value of the various parameters can also be

done from within the MADS programme, through the selection of the proper
options from menus and prompts. Note that such changes will affect the data
within your data files (those corresponding to the generic name you gave at
the beginning of the run), but will not modify the content of the source
file (text) that was used to create the data base.

Below is the list of the parameters that can be modified from within
the MADS programme:

- opportunity cost of capital,

- prices of commodities and investment items,

- investment characteristics (life, contingencies Y.. etc.),

- loan characteristics (interest rate, repayment, etc.),

- level of a component within an activity or within a plan,

- weight of a component within an aggregate.

2. Effect on stored calculation results

As calculations on quantities of commodities and investments are

performed at once for all plans, and kept on file, they will have to be
performed again whenever a plan or an activity is edited, but not when only
prices or other data are modified. Results in value on the last plan
calculated as well as results of calculations of loans and aggregates, will
be offset by any editing except the opportunity cost of capital.
18 ANNEX 5

G. Examples.

1. A simple example

The simple example presented below is intended to illustrate the

various concepts of MADS III. Data organization for the preparation of fhe
source file is explained below. The listing of the source file as well as
the various tables (input data and results) produced by MADS from this data
are presented in Appendix 3. All names in the example are in French, to
illustrate how models can be built in any language.

The first data section, in the source file, includes five lines
corresponding to project name, run or data set name, currency name, base
year/project life, and opportunity cost of capital.

Example:
Mali - Projet d'irrigation
Analyse financiere
FCFA
20
12. 0

The next step is to identify, within the project data, the variables
corresponding to the various data types.

Let us assume that the project to be analyzed consists of tHe

construction of an irrigation system in an area presently cultivated with
flood recession rice, and where it would be possible, with irrigation, to
cultivate irrigated rice in some area, in rotation with some rainfed maize,
and floating rice in the lower parts of the perimeter. Crop production costs
consist of inputs and labour. Project level costs include the investment for
land development, maintenance of the perimeter, extension services, and
pumping of water for irrigation.

First step will be the definition of commodities, together with

their prices: rice, maize, inputs, labour, pumping, extension services.
Because in this example inputs are specified directly in value within the
crop budget, their price is put to 1000 in the commodity definition, and the
values ~ill be specified in 1000 currency units when inputs are introduced
into a crop activity.

The commodity section of the source file will be as follows:

COMMODITIES
Riz tonnes
Al 180000
Ma1s tonnes
Al 230000
Intrants 1000 FCFA
Al 1000
Travail homme-jour
A l 700
Pompage m3
A 1 5
Encadrement millions CFA
A l 1000000
ENDA TA
 ANNEX 5 19

Each crop will be specified in the section defining activities, the

yield being a commodity produced (note that a crop could produce more than
one commodity: e.g. straw and grajn), and inputs and labour being consumed.

It is important to keep in mind that data items must have uniques

names. If rice is the name of a commodity, the same name cannot be used for
an activity or a plan.

Because some production will disappear with the project, it is

necessary to specify a "rice without project" crop.

The activity section is thus as follows:

ACTIVITES
Riz irrigue Ha
Riz p
A 4 2 2.5 3 3.5
Intrants C
A 4 35 40 45 52
Travail
A 1 118
END
Riz flot tant HA
Riz· p
A 3 1.5 2
Intrants C
A 3 40 50 60
Travail C
A 1 98
END
Riz sans projet
Riz p
A 0.5
Intrants C
A 1 11 . 4
Travail C
A 1 54
END
Mais (projet) HA
Ma Is p
A 3 1. 5 2
Intrants C
A 3 20 30 35
Travail C
A 1 118
.END
ENDA TA

The next section in the source file deals with investments:

INVESTMENTS
Amenagement milions CFA
A 1 1000000
50 3 5 10 0
ENDA TA

Because in this example investment costs will be specified in value

and in millions of currency unit (within a plan), the unit price here 'is one
million. Investment life is to be 50 years, maintenance cost will be
calculated w£ 57. of the investment cost, and will apply from the fourth year
20 ANNEX 5

(i.e. 3 years time lag) after the investment. The.percentage is 107. for
physical contingencies and zero for residual value at the end of investment
life.

The next section, aggregates, will be used to define for example

total cereals production as equal to rice plus maize.

It is also used to define an aggregate "perimeter" that includes

different elements than the plan "project" defined later on, and will be
used to perform an economic analysis: the main model is for financial
analysis in the example, but this aggregate will produce an economic
analysis on the assummption that credit and labour have no economic cost and
that all other items have economic prices identical to their financial
prices (if this were not the case, the full source file could be copied
under another name, and the prices edited in the commodities section).

The aggregates section reads as fellow:

AGGREGATES
Cereales tonnes
QUANT
Riz
Hals
END
PERIHETRE
VALUES
Riz
Hals
Amenagement
Intrants
Encadrement
Pompage
END
ENDA TA

Note that when an aggregate is calculated the results are expressed

in algebric terms, i.e. for example a commodity consumed will be added with
negative values. It would thus be an error to specify the weight of a
commod~ty like "Intrants" with a negati~e sign because it is a cost.

The mechanism of the transfer will be used, in this example, to

calculate pumping costs. This applies because pumping costs (i.e. water
consumption) are assumed here to be proportional to crop production. Let us
assume that only rice requires pumped water, at the rate of 1.200 m3 per ton
of irrigated (dressed) rice, and 2.000 m3/ton of floating rice, at a cost of
.5 FCFA per cubic meter. The following transfer can be defined:

TRANSFERS
Eau de pompage m3
SURPWITHOUT
Riz Pompage
ENDA TA

The quantity of pumped water (commodity "Pompage" will be calculated

on the basis of rice production (i.e. based on positive values of the
commodity "riz" for the plan where the transfer will be introduced, without
transfer back of rice). Because we decided to define more than one rice crop
to produce the same commodity, and the two crops have got different water
requirements, it will be necessary to define two separate plans to calculate
"pompage", as shown in the last data section. Another possibility would have
 ANNEX 5 21

been to define two commodities (floating rice and dressed rice, and on
aggregate to get total rice production), two transfers'to calculate pumping
costs, and a single plan.

The next data section allows to specify credit operations. Assuming

that inputs would be partly financed on credit, we could specify the
following:

LOANS
Credit de campagne FCFA
0 1 13. 5
PAID EQUAL. INST
Intrants SEPARATE
END AT A

The three figures on the second line mean no grace period, year
repayment period, 13.5Z interest rate. The next line means that interest is
paid during grace period and repayment is in equal instalments (these
specifications have no effect in the particular case of an annual loan, but
must be present in the text). "Intrants" is the name of the commodity which
cost will be used as a basis to calculate the amount of the loan, and
SEPARATE means that yearly costs will be considered as the basis for
separate loans.

Last comes the plans section:

PLANS
Riz dresse Perimetre
Riz irrigue PT
A 4 0 100 250 450
Eau de pompage TR
A 1 - 120 0
END

Riz bas-fonds Perimetre

Riz flot tant PT
A 4 0 75 150 250
Eau de pomp age TR
A 1 -2000
END

Pro jet Perimetre

Riz dresse A
A 1 1
Riz bas-fonds A
A 1 1
Ma1s PT
A 5 0 20 60 120 15 0
Credit de campagne A
A 6 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.0
Riz sans projet A
A 1 -200
Encadrement A
A 1 -4
Amenagement A
A 6 396.6 486.4 177. 7 64 . 7 39.8 0
END
ENDA TA
22 ANNEX 5

As· already explained, the plans "Riz dress~· ?nd "Riz bas-fond" are
necessary to calculate pumping requirements. The "levels" of the transfer
"Eau de pompage" in these two plans, representing the number of cubic meters
of water per ton of rice, must be negative if pumping is to be counted as a
cost. The parameter PT means that the calculation on rice has to be done
following the phasing mode (letter Pl, and that the number of units (i.e.
the rice area) is total (letter T), and not incremental from one year to the
next (in which case the parameter would be PI).

The plan "project" includes the two other plans ("riz dressi" and
"riz bas-fond") as well as two activities ("mals" and "riz sans projet", the
latter being substracted from the" results because the level is negative),
one investment (specified in this case in CFA millions), a credit operation
(the loan will finance initially 607. of inputs cost, to decrease to zero
from year 6), and a commodity (the level, here the cost in CFA millions of
extension services, must be negative if it is not to be accounted for as a
benefit).

Appendix 3 reproduces the full source file corresponding to this

example, including the instructions copied from the MADS-SOURCE file (see
sections C and D). It also shows all the data in the form of tables, as
produced by MADS, and all the results of the calculations of the plan
project, including production of maize and rice, consumption of inputs,
labour and pumped water, costs associated with land development, loan and
debt service, and aggregates with associated rate of return/present
value/sensitivity analysis calculations.

2. The case of labour

As shown by the example in B.4.(d), calculating hired labour based

on the calculation of the balance of labour consumed by crops and labour
available from the family is an obvious case for using the transfer
mechanism.

But there is a problem in this particular case, because a surplus of

labour should not result into a corresponding benefit to the farm model. Let
us go back to the previous example:

Year 1 Year 2

Labour consumed (by crops) 150 120

Labour produced (by family) 130 130
Balance before transfer -20 10
Transfer: hired labour -20 0
labour (transfer back) 20 0
Balance: labour 0 10
hired labour -20 0

In year 1, balance of labour is zero (in man-days), so that the cost

of family labour would be zero to th.e model. In year 2, the balance being
10, the mechanism of the calculations would result into an income
corresponding to the value of 10 working days, which would be wrong in the
case of labour, as unused labour capacity does not correspond to an income.
To overcome this problem, one.can define another commodity (say "Family
labour cost"), and introduce it into a plan in such a way that it would
offset the "benefit" from the "labour produced" by the family. This could be
done the following way:
 ANNEX 5 23

- de~ine three commodities: labour, family ~abour cost and hired

labour,

- define an activity "family labour" that produces "labour"

(representing family labour availability) and consumes "family
labour cost" to offset the value of "labour" produced,

- define crop activities, that include labour requirements

(consumption),

- define a transfer to calculate "hired labour" requiiements in case

·of deficit of "labour",

- define a plan including the crop activities, the activity "family

labour", and the transfer.

The result would be:

Year 1 Year 2

Labour consumed (by crops) 150 120

Labour produced (by family) 13 0 13 0
Family labour cost -130 - 13 0
Labour balance before transfer -20 10
Transfer: hired labour -20 0
labour (transfer back) 20 0
Balance: labour 0 10
hired labour -20 0
family labour cost - 13 0 -130

In values, the balance between the two commodities "labour" and

"family labour cost" will correspond to the cost of the labour actually used
by the crop activities, e.g. in year 2, minus 130 plus 10 equal 120.
 ANNEX 5 1
APPENDIX 1

TED Beqinners guide

In order to use MADS III, it is necessary to prepare the data in the

form of a text file, and thus to know how to use some text processing
prograrrrne. Below are some basic informations on the one called TED, as well
as on some basic features of file organization within the DDC KDRSD--100
computer. Refer to specific manuals or to your secretary for more
informations.
1. File names

The work space is organised into directories and users. Normally a

user will be given space in only one directory, and you wiJl not have to
worry about directory name. User name is necessary for two things:
- to log-on,

- to access a file in another user space.

Example of a file name~ (PROJEcr-viORK:PROJECI') MADS-SOURCE:TEXT

Note that there should be no spacing within the file name. ·rn this·
example, PROJEcr-viORK is a directory name and PROJEcr a user name (brackets
and colon are compulsory) • Because a file name can be abbreviated to the
shortest non-ambiguous name, these two elements would not be normally
necessary, except -as already said if you want to access a file from a
different user space.

The last part of the full name ( :TEXT in the example) is the file
type. It is very often unnecessary to specify it, as many commands in the
system assume a default type. In particular, the type TEXT is assumed by
default whenever a file name is used with TED.
2. Using quote marks with file names

A file name can be specified with or without quote marks, as shown

below:
" (PROJEcr) w..ns-sOURCE"
or (PROJECT)MADS-SOURCE

The general convention for all commands using file names within the
system is the following:

- the absence of quote mark implies that the file exists; a command
with a file name without quote marks will result into an error
message if the file cannot be found.
- The use of quote llBrks implies that the file does not exist and has
to be created; if a file with the given name already exists, the
system will send an error message and the command will have no
effect.
2 ANNEX 5
APPENDIX 1

3. Usinq files with TED

To read an (existing) file with TED, just type,· after the system
prompt@ and without space in between, TED <file name> (with a space between
TED and the file name).Example: @TED (PROJECI')MADS-SOURCE. The text of the
file then appears on the screen.
Write to a file from TED: the current text is stored in a temporary
work space, and must be written to a file if you want to keep it. Commands
in TED are given when the cursor is in the top line of the screen, not in
the text. The cursor is moved to this position with the key • The
command to write is W. If you then press the CR key, the current file name
will appear after the command (if there is any), and a new CR will execute
writing to this file. You can also write a file name and then press return.
If you give a name which is not used yet and put it within quote marks (see
above), a new file will be created with that name.
4. Writing text
The cursor is moved on the screen by using the arrow keys. The
key (Horne key) moves the cursor back and forth between the command
position and the text. Instructions can be given to TED either from the
command position (it is called a home command) or from within the text.by
using control characters. A control character is produced by pressing
simultaneously the CI'RL key and another key. Control A will be noted as <A>.
Most useful are the following:

Horne commands

H (for HELP) prints on the screen the list of home commands,

controls characters, and other instructions (for text formatting).
M: MJVE 'ID LINE: <line-number> <CR>.

T:HORIZ0~1TAL TAB: give 1 to 8 tab position, then CR, to set TABS.

W: write to file.

Control characters

<A>: erases one character at a time.

<D> <D> (control D twice): deletes the current line.

<L>: creates a blank line above the current line.

<Q>: restores the line deleted last, at the current cursor position
(the original one, or another location).
 ANHEX 5-
lrn-oend ix 2
--~-- -- --- ------ - - -·-·------ ----"-· -

~ADS 111 - ~*****

- --- - -r.'JlTIPUR.POSE AG~IC!Jl11JRAL DATA SYSTE!r·-- - ---- ---- - - --- --- --
----- VERSION L~ -- COPYRIGHT FAG INVESHiENT CENTER - RGME- - -- - - - - COMMENTS -- --- ---------

~~-Dn_ynu. ~!anL to use data which. have. Fe.viously been. stor!!!l__ ________ ----------------- __ S.tar.L _________
---¥--~ui'__s_et_ of _Q_ersonal_files L________ _______ ____________ _-_____
- - - - - - · - ---- - ~ - - - - - - - - - - . - - - - - - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~ - - ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- Give-th-e .{_leneric-naMe. ot.youl'--fi-les...-{ t-t0---i4 diar.1cter,._,__ _ _ _ _ _ __
___ _ _ _ M ~ L - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
---An--you-- 3oso lute-1 v cerHirr-that-the- naMe--is-correct-1--.- - -
____ 1_ __ ___ ---------- ---------------- ----·--- -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
MAtr-T:TEXr-- --·1s to be useoasOlJTI'DTITLr---------------------------------------- --------
Note: The old content of that file is erased at the-start-of-anew-run---------------- -- ---- ---- --- - --- ----
_Press CR key ~hen you 'lla~t to c:antinue________________________________________________________ _

--- Cede-=--1 --- Creating a new data- base--

----------------------------=~=
---1'\ali--Projet-d'irrigahon-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
_-- Curfent data_ set is_Analyse financiere _
- - - - - - - - - - Main- Menil------------
-- _Code ==_ 2 ____ Listing the data base ___ _
Code = 3 Pr ocessino a PLAN
------code = 4 ---- Editino· 1he--data base· -
- - Bode--,._5--- End-o~ job--

r-- - a-- --
En,ter -- -- ----be1ween- 1-- and
nuMber 5
------------------------
Gi 11e tr.e n3He/type of. your source.file.. tLJ..o 2Lcharac.tersL_____________________________________
MLI -SOURCE - _
-----
--- - MAL1-S01JRCE------------_--------- _ ~re,tir,g a--datt:b!s~---
Are w1 2bs2lutely cert~rn that.the nane..J.£.Col'rec.LL____________________ ,!hen __ a~o1rce_ t1le.1s _________ _
Y
-- -------- - --- ·---- ---------- -----------------------
processed, iteM naMes are
----------------disolaved on the \en1inaI-;- -------
- r\ali-- Pro iet d' irrigation---------------- apottln1 t2 lor.~te ~~r1rs·-- --
Analvse fin~nciere ___ __________________ _____ (1tanv~_Jhe d:1ta__15.__ the____ _
----~~&{:: 1 _ UFE-:::,o--------- saMe as_in appendix 3, ____
------- OPPOxTLtiiHY COST- OF CAP HAL-:a--12-, 007. ----
__ CQMMCiD1 TIES _____ _______ ____________ _
COKMODITIES = Riz tonnes
- COKnGDiiIES :: Mais- --------------Hnne·s··---
CO,"\riODITES = Intrants -------------------UOO-F£FA-
-- COMM0DIT1£S = Travail _________ ----------ho1H'\e-:Jo.1=1r_ _ __
CG:1Mot1ITI~S::: Por1p.ige M3 .
- COnMODITIES = Ericadre11enc·-------,:,rrrron~s-------------------------------------------
. ENDATA---- --- ----------- ---
_ACTll)LTIE.B _________________ ,
ACTI~ITIES = Riz irrioue
-------- Ri 1--·----------------------·-----· ---,----
Ha ------·--------------
----ln 1r'an1 s------ ---------·------------- --
----- __ c.NO
Irauil ______·--------·------------------------------------------------- .. -
-- -- A~i 1'11 nts--· =- Ri z-il omn T------------·tta __________ - - - - - - - - - -- ------·---------- ------ --
R1 z- - -- ·------- --- --- -- --------------------- ---------------------·------------------------------···---------- -----------
- lntrants. _______________________ --------------------------------- _______ ----------·---------·--·------------- --·-------
Tr.avail --
· c.N11 ---- --- - ---- --· ·--------- ----------------- -------------------- --------- -----------------·-------·- --·--------- -------·----

-----·--·-- ---- ---------·----------·----------------------- ----------

- -- - ·-· - ·-· --·---···· -----·--·----·· ···-- --------------------- ---------------- - - - -
·---------------·----

··--. - - - -- -- -- - ----- - ·- .. ----------------- ------------ ----- --- --- - -------------------- ---------------------

- - --------- . -- . ---- ...... ------·----- ... --------- --·- ·-- ···-- --- ·------------- ----····--------- ~'- - -
 ANNEX 5
A.Imendix 2

,,
L.
_ -- -

ACTI'JI1IES = Riz sans proJet _________ Ha __________________________________________________ _

--- Riz ' --
- Intrants- -~ - - ------ - -- -- -------
·- Trau~i. L------- - --- --- ·- ------ - ------·--- ----·---- ...------ - --- ---- ---- --------- ----- ---- ---------- ------ ---- -- ----------- -- --- -------
END _________ __ ______ _
-·- ACTIVITits·--= Hais (projet)·-- ----------------Ha·-- -------- -------- -- . ·--- ··---------- ----- ------ -----· ----..
--- tta1 s------ -- ----- - ----·------------ ----------- -------- --------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
___ In tranJ5-.....___________________ ---------- -----
Travail
---mo--
___ ENDATA · - - - -----------------------------------------··
_lNVESTMEJHS_______________~
INVESTMENTS:: AttenageMent Millions
EHDATn---- -- --- -----
- - Af.,GREGATES-----
AGGR EGA_TES_ ___;::_ Cereal es J mnes__. _ _ _ __
Riz
Ma1;---------------------------------------------------------~----~---------------------------------------
Et~I) --- ------------------------~------------------------------·-----··--·--··-··- ·-----·--·--------~-- ----
AGGREGATES = PE.RllURL __________ . U________________________________________ ·--- _________________________ ---
Riz ___________ - ·--------------- -------------------------------- --- - -
---···- Mais -- . - - - - - - - ~ - - . - - --· - - - - -
----- AMenaqeMen-t --- --------- ----- --------- - - - - - ---------------------
___ ln tr an_ts_ _____ ·------------------
EncadreMent
--- ro,~page - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
/---- E.Nl}- ------ -------- ------------
-- rnDATA_ --------------·----
TRANSFERS
-- --rnANSFrns-----= Eao-de-potipage-----11~
'-- - D~DM~---- ----- ·---- ·-------
LOANS ___________ -· ______ _
LOANS = Credit de cattpagne fcfa
OiDAn------------ -- -------·--- ·--------- · - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -----------
PUNS------ -- - -------------
PLANS ______ =_Rir dresse __ -------·---·- Peritletre_ ______ _
Riz irr io 'Je
-- Eau oe-pot1page _____ _
E/J~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -·--· - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - ------ -------- --
. PLANS·-- __ = Riz._ba.s_--:f_!lndc._______ feritl.eJ.r.~----- ______________________ _
Riz flott<1nt
Eau-de JOl':~:Jgf---·-----:---·--
- END -- - -- -- ------
----- .PLANS ______ = Pcojet _________ JetiMeil'e...__ ______________________ - - - - - -
Riz drfonds
---- Mais (pro_fetY-- --
___ ·Cred1t M c:al!pagne----
Riz. sans pro-jet --------------------------
Encadre11ent
-- A-------- -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~ -
END -------------
EllDH TA___ --·- ______ _
fresshen •1ou_ 1-1ant_10 _con1inue_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
11ali--Pro-jet d(irr-igation--, - - - - - - - - - - - -
Current -data se-tisf'nalyse tinanc
· C<rde-=- t-··- Cteafing·nie'ri· dat"if base -·-iaclrfoliain- 1-1enu
·-- C =-2 ·--- Listing--the- data-base----
--_ CodeL. -.ng a.P[AtL .. _. __ £di1ing._the_. d.ata..hase ·-··-----------·---
-·-- .. Code__=__ 5____ End_of job -------·--·----------·--------·--·-------·----··-·----------
·· Enter a M!'\~I:?!' he~'.leen -1-a!\d··-5----------------------···---··-·--------
')
------ '--"---·-- -· --·------·------------· ----------·-·-

---· --------------------- ----- ---------------------------

- ---- ------------ -----------·-----. -----------------· ---------

------------ -·----·-------- --··- ·----------·-·--,.-- --------- . ------------·-·----------

- - ·- --· ·- . ----· ---···------··-·---·-
- ·-··- ·--- ···- ··-··----.. - ·-- -------------·----------------·-------- --------------------------
 ANNEX 2,
Appendix 2

.. 3
~ali - Pro jet d' i;rigat1on · listing \he data tw~e _
--·--------------------- . - - ----- Analyse
Currencyfin~nciere
: FCFA -- -

,_____ ._ _?_R.l~_IIHG IHPIJT D~TA_ _ _ --------·

-·- - · Enter- a· nu!lber betwel!n 1 and-1\---- ---- --- - ---------·-·--·--- ------

______3. --- --·-· -------. ·-------·-- ---· ----· ·---------- -·----· -----------·----- ----
-- - - You have the· foll owing -ootions r ------ -- - ---------- ----- - -- ·- - - -- -
-- --Cede-=- -\---·Ter ,n nal CRl- -- ----------------- ---------·-·- ----------.. -----
___ Code_=_ 2 __ Line-~rinter_ (132 chrs/lL_____________________________________________________ .. ____________ _
Code = 3 HP-printer (227 chrs/ll
--code--=--r·--0utputf'i!e · (227 chrs/t,
___ _EnJe.r_a nu Mb er. between___L and_ ___L ______________ ------·-- __ _ FvlL Es.ting_ to ovtplLtfila_ ______
4

_____________________ J1alL:: fl.rojet cl'ir.rig.aili1L --------·--------------------

-------· C-ur r enqfinanciere
-------- -Analyse : . rcrir---------- ·-·--------·. ----·-.. -- _- ______________ _

-------~------
PRJNTING IN.PUT DATA
----·---~---------·---------- _____________________ ____________ ------·-·-··-------
,,

----£ ode-,:- t-----Cat, l ttgue----

. Code__:: 2.---~ COMMOD11IES. ____________________________ _
Code = 3 -- ACTIVITIES
-- -- cooe· =- 4-·.:.=-:. INVSSTr'iEH1s-·-- ---- -----------~------- ... ~- --·-·-- - ----~--
Cude = 5 - A~GREGATES - ··· - ----------· -----·-· ---------·-- ----·-------·- ··---··- --
______ Code __=__6_::_-=_1RANSFERS_ · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- --------------------- -·-- ·-----····
Cade = 7 -- LOANS
-- ·- Co ae-· =. s--,;;c.:;;:: Pt A~- ---
--{;ode-.:.-9--· Full-printout-
- - Code---=.1 L== Se.Lnbr_ of det.L...digi.ts__te.~r-r.9nt~1~-------------
_____ Code =11 --- End_of print__ __ _ _ _
-----------·-·---~---~------
-- - Enter-<t- nu~ber- between--1-~nd---H - - - - ----End- of-hsting operHitns---
____ _11 . ·----------------·----------·--------------------

___ C.unen.Ul~ta..seLis... ~.nalyse Hn,anc.iere.

---cooe=-1--c-,.eafinga~riewdafroase
---Cod~·=-·2---1::istinq-tht- data base- _ _ ___.__ _ __ -------------------·---
- ... Cnaa..E._J_____Jr ?qssing_ a_f'LA!i _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Bac..Lto .Min.-"en\l.___ _____ _
Code= 4 Ed1t1no tne data base .
----coire---5--End--ot- job---·----·------------··-------·----·-------·----
--··-·- EnJer__a_nu11ber_bet'.leen__1 anL __!i_______________________________·--·------------·----------·---
4 '
--------- -------------···-----------· -·--·-· ---

----------------·-
·---·-··------- -------------·-. ---------- --------- -----------·-·---
-··------------ ·-·-·--·-----·--------
------------------·-·--------·-- .... ---·--·-···---------------------···----·-------------·-·-------
- · - - - - - - - - - - - · --·--·-·· ------ - ----··---··-----··--···-------··-----~---r---------·-· -- - - ---·- -------------·------·--··--·-· --- ---·····-----
 ANNEX 5
Appendix: 2
- - - --·------------·---·-----------
, - - - - ~ - - - ------------ __ , ________ ---- ----- ---------- - - - - -

__________________ Mali:-. Projet,d'i~rigation __________ _

, Analyse t1n~nc1ere
'----------------------------Currency: fCFA --------
Editing +he _data_b~se _______ _
;-----Co-de =--r-- COMMOvITIES------ ----------------- - ------ -------------------------------------
---Code_:; 2...= AC.TIVlTIES_________~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----------------------
, Code = 3 --- INVESTMENTS
--- C<i"de-=··,r--=-AGGREGATES-
~- - Codt>- ,._ 5---TRANSFERS--------
__ Code._::_ 6.___:._..::-_LQANS.. -------------,---
Cod~ = a-----::=-opportun·i
--- C-ode·=- 7 --- PLANS ff Crsr orCapifa ______________________________ _
,------Code,----;.--9--End-tf--- edttlng----

-E'.nter a nuMber between - 1 and 9 --- --------------~=~=----==-~~==-~-~====-------------=-----

, ----- -0--- --- - LOANS--------------------------- -- ------------------------ --- ------ -- -- --------- ----- ---- -- ----- -------------
- --15-Credit de rn1paqne fcfa -
- -- -select code tf i tett to be ·1Hdified ------------------ ----------- -------------------- ------ -------------------
1--{--H-if no- Mere}----- ------------- · --------------------
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - - - -~-
, Enter a nuMber between 14 ~nd 15
~-15------------- - - - - - - - - -
i - - - - - - - ------------- --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----
(_____ na..ta... on loan.. Credit.de.. caHpaqne..... ____________ ------ --
1 loan based on Intrants
:------ --+-+ GRACE-PERIOl>-=----6--
f- ___ 2._:__RE?AY!1£Nl PEiUOD_::: ___ L _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
3 : lNT~REST RATE= 13.50 t
· · ·,r-:· !n-tere~t paid during grace"perioo___________________ -- ------- · Edi Hng loan dafa __________ _
5--: tqual instalMents --- ------------------------------ -- ------- ------ ----------------
_LL Annual aMounts_ treated_ as. separate. loans_ ________________________________________ _

_ Enter_ a_nul'\ber be..tween _ _O_.and__6_ _ _ _ _ _ __

0
r·· --------rnAMs- - ---- --
r--- --- ----- ---- .. . - ------- ---- -------
L ____ 15.. Credit de w1paqne ________ ftfa_ ______~ - - -
1 Select code of iteM to be Modified
; ---r- t.f1f no flOrer-----------------
-----------
i EnteL.t-nuMher._between.....14-.anLi-5_ __
i
,- --
14
--- na1r--::-irr o.fefo,.ffrTgaffon________
~--- ----------------------------An-alyse hnanc1ert"" ------------------
-- _ Ul'-re~Cf ---

1_-_______E_D_1T_IN_G"_1_NP_U_T_DAT_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
_C.od~_L::::--=.COMMOD.IIIE,.,__.- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
'/ Code= 2 ~- ACTIVITIES
~ -eo-de:~3 --- INVESTMENT-~s----------,----------------------
---Code--=--+--AGGREGATES-----------------------------
'---l:ode...E....i...::=::.JRM!SEERS
I Code = 6 --- LOANS
'-----cGirr=-,-;;-.;.:;- f t . A N s · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
L ___ Code--=-- 8---- Oppcrtunit't· Cc!t-· o~Capita-i--------------------- - - - -
)____Co de......=...i..::::-=.bd.....o.Led.itin'l--g_ __

~- ~Terarfuiiber~_oeh~een-nn~-----------
----- - - - - - - - - -
f------------------·· -------------
r-----·---

---------- · - - - - - - - · - - - - - - -
'
~----·--------------------··
:----------------------------------------·--------------···---------------
--------------·-·-- ·-·-------·------·-------- --------------------------------··-- ---·-· ---···---·----·-------- --·--·-··. ... --·~ _
 .ANNEX 5
APpendix: 2

---------------- --------- ,_ ______________ ·- -------------------------- --- ------- ·- --· ---- - ----- --- ------· . -- 5----------
__________ INVESTMENTS. ... -- ---
------n-Ar1enaaeMent - · 111lhons ---- · - - · ·
--·- Select code of iteA to be f'lodified ·---------------------- ------------- · --- - ·-- -- - --------- -
___ __J_ __ u .if no meL ______ .. --- ------------ ---- ---------··------ ___________ ------------- ___________ _
--- En1er a-n1rnber between 10 and-ir -- ·---------- --------- -
--:11-----·- ---- - - - ---· ------------------ ------··
-------~--~~-- - - -
~__
InvesHient i tel'\ AMen~qe~ent
~--Change ~r-ices-(code:;.l} 1-other--data- (code=2r or-nothing (code=3>---?---- ------------
Enter a nuMber between 1 and 3
--,----------·-·
__ na la on._ invest11enLi.tet1. AMenage11en.t______________
-----m!fr-=--so------ ------
----- 2 ~ RESIDIJAL VALUE-::- O.uO-% of investt1en1- ---------------------------------- Editing-inye-stMen-t data------- - -
____ 3._: X f·JI' CONTINGENCIE3-...= 10, OL _________________________________________________________________________ _
4 : Z ior "AINTENAtiCE = 5.00
------ 5-T TIME LAG for MAIHiENANCE-=-· 3---- ----- -- ---------- ------- -·-------------- ---------------- ----- ---
------------·----------- - - - - - - - ----------------
___ lo_ change_data.t--entet c:_orrespondinCJ--line...1uu;beLllliL.n.o__!l.or2-_changeL _ _ __
--rrner-n10M1iert:retweenuairr
- - - ~-------·--------

____ Investr,;ent i tel'i AMenage11ent

- - Chanqe- prices-(c!Hle-==-1 } 1-oth-e!'--data--~code=2}-- or--- no-th-inq--foode=-3-}--4--------:------ - - - - - - - - -
-- Enter a nu11ber between 1 and 3
·-3--------------------- ------- ----------------
.. ------------- · - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - -
__________ lNIJESTMENlS____~------------------------------
------ ---11-·A11enaaeMenr 11UU0-11;---
----·-- · Select C()de of-itm-h·bfc'- ,w!i-fied----
-- l_Jfl i.fno. l'\Ol'e..)___________________________ --------·- --·-·-----------------------·------------ ---- - - ·
--- --·rn1er a ·nuMber bet11eeo·10-ana-rr----------------------------------------------
---------10----· - ------------· ---- ··------------------ ---------------·. ----------- --- --- ------· - -

------------ ---
----------

--·- . -·-------- ----------- - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · ----------··---~-------------· -----

_____ Code_~_L:-.-:: C0MMOD1T1EL_ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ -------------
Code = J-;;.-=-ntvESTHENT,.._.i
--:-·--·e-odr= 2 --- ACTIVITIES _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
- - -to<lf.L=----4-- A G G R E G A - l E ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
___ CQde-=....5 -- iRANSEER.S.._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
Code= 6 ~- LOANS
--·to'de=,-==-PtA~-------------------------------
--£~il~·=--8---0p9.~r-t1Htity--€o'lhHa1tHa-i---------------------------
___ Co.dL=...l.::.::::;..Enii.tt...edilin-----------
--fater a nu1,berbehieen rano
-- 9-------·-----------------

·-------
-·---------------
------------···--------
---------------
· - - - --··---------------------·-
---------·---·------·---·-----·--·-----------··--·----·-·-·-··· -·--------······--------·--·-· ·--·--····-···---····------------···----·----····-----
· · - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · -·-· - -------·- ---- --- ·----------·-----·-----· -·--·----------·--·· ... --·--------
 A...lffi"EX 5
Appendix 2

__ Ha li __~_Projet d' irrigation ________________________________________________________________________________

---Current ddta set is Anal)•se financiere---- -----
Code= 1 Creating a re'-/ data base______________ _ ____ _ __ ___ ____ __ ___________ _
---- Code= 2 -- listing \ne data base Back t9 1-1ain ttenL1
-·--Cod~:. 3- ·- Processing a PLAN-· ---- -- ---- ~-----------·-----··---------------- ------ - --~---------- -----· ---- --
__ Co.de__=. _4____ Editing tne data base_____ ------------------------------------------
- Code= _§_ _____E~d of_job ___ _
- - Enter a- nuMller- between--+ and----5----- ------------- ------~-- - - - - - - - - - - -
__ __a_ · ____________ Calc.ulatianst-_
Plan na11es are disp!ayJ_d__t_o_ _
---wanfft1es-oiffng calcu1afeif. Frease wait , , • · ------keep-you·-i;1aiting wh1Ie
- - - - - - - - - ---------------- juant1ties- are-calculated----
--------- ----------------------------- _____ or._ allplaos.. i!Lthe. data-base_.__
Plan Riz dresse
- ?tan- ~iz bas-fonds·------------
Plan Pro Jet----------- ---- --·- ---- ------- --- - . ----------------- ---- --- -- ------------------ -------- --------------

-~air- f'r~ j~t d' i~rigation =-~ ~~~~-=-~==- -- - - -=-~~~___:-~--~ ------- - ----- --- ------------ ---- --- -----
-----Current- data-sr:t- is-Anal1•si:-financiere--------------------------------------:-·--------------------
····- --- -· -- ----~--~------------ -----------·---------------

Code= 1 Select a-plan ·

--codr=-t----- Calculating--value~-
___ Code--= 3 -- Printing quantities/values----------
Code _:_ 4 __ CalculatinQ.b~lance/ret,:rn_on_ a ulan__. - - - --------
Code= 5 Aggregates·rnd sensitivity analysis
Code == 5 -- -- Transfer results-to MAtUP-
Code-=--7----- End- of- plan-!}rocessing---
and - -7- · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Enter a nuajier between- - I ---
1----------··---·· - --------·- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -------------

________ PLANS ________________________________ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- -------------·· ------------------ - - - - - -

-------------- ------------
16 !ffCdfesse- - Perfoett'e
- - - --17 Rh-~as-hnds---------- Peritietr~
18 Pro.Jet _________ . _ Perit-1e..tre__ ___________ _
In-det-nuMber- ot·p !Jri-l1fb-i.f protess·ea·. ----------- ----------· -------------------- ··------- - ----·------- ---·- ··
-- En1er-- - 15 if Ofr· plan -- ---------------- --------------------------·- - - --------------
------ -- - --·- ----- - -- --------~-------------------------------
Enter d nu~ber between 15 3nd 18
-lg---·--------------------------- -

_P.r ojeL____________:.--=--_ls__iLOY~?__
y __________________ A plan r-;1,st_ be_selec_ted________ _
Mali - Projet d'irrigation----------------------------- ---- --------- --·- -·---------- ---------------------
. . ---·--- ---- -------·----
Cur,-ent data set is Analvse financiere
last plan processed = rroJl?t - - ----
. Co.dL=:._L_.SelecLa. p.lan___J _____ -----·---·
gJ~~:t--· ¥n~rf;t~~a~t~~fisrv-arues
--- -£ode--=- 4----Calcvla tirrg ~alance(r~tur-n-· on--a-p-~an------
.•
_____ Code_;;. 5______ Aggregates. and. sens1 ta1ti. analys15-.--
Code= 6 Transfer results to MANIP
---·Code·=·;-·-·-·· En·d·or-plan processing- ·---·---- ---
---·--------------
____ fnter_a_nuHber.. b.e.tween_l .and.... __L__._ _ __ ____________ .lt. you .. wanLre.sults._in-1H lues1--
2
- - - -the calculations_Must~~-!led,
----·----
----------------------·-----
---·-··---------------------·-·----------·-------------------·-

---·--·---·-----··-·--------·--·-·----·· - - - - -----·---···---·-----
..
---------------- ------------------·------·------·------------
------------ ---------·--------------------------·--·-----------------------------------·

------ --- ------ ·------------------------·· -------------·----------- .. ---------------- -----------· - ------------- ----------··

 ANNEX 5
Anpendix 2

____ Values_ berng calculated. Please wai L, .

- A*~*~~;t:tr~*·H*.:X:1ci·X~**il·)Hf1f ·- --------------
--- AMOUNT OF LOAN Credit de rn;pagne- ------- - --------
-- IN PLAN Pro;et--- ------------------------------------ - - ~ loan cannot finance a benefit.--
IS _NEGA_iIVC_IN YEAR ______ 1 _______ _ _ ___ _ _____________ _

LOAN AMOUNT WILL BE ASSUttED AS ZERO FOR YEAR

--HHll'**ill!H,HltilHHlHm~lf ----
-- Pre!s C~ key-11herqo11-11ant- to- continue----------------------------------------------
--~li - ProJet d'irrigation_ __ ------------------------------------
---Cuttent-data 5~t-is An~lyse-f-inancier~----------- ------- ------
- _ Las._t_ plan.. prncess.ed._ E_l'r.ilje.L_ ----------------------------
-------c-ode-=--1---sereu-,q nn-- ------------
Code :.. 2- - Calcula11na v1lues--- ------- ------------·-·-·- --·--------------------------------------- - - ------- -·--·----·-
_ Code_= 3 __ Printing quan11t1es/value.s._ ___ _________ ______ _ __ ____ _ _____ _
Code= 4 Calc1la1ino balance/return on a plan
Code·= 5 --- - Aggreoa tes · and sensi 1iv i ty analysis ______________ ---- ---- ------- · ----- ------- - · - -- --- - -- -- - -----
- Code-=- 6---- Transfer- res\!l ts to- ttANIP--------------------------- ------ - -------- ---- --- ---------------
__ C.ooe___:::_J_____ End· oL plan_ pr&eessing... ---------------------------- __ _
-r1ner-afuKber- between-r-ana P-rintino-alrresuHs lo V1f ___________
-- 3 ------------------ • ''' (~ee-copy- i. n - - - - - - - - -
------o-u,ptltfue-
---------------------------------------------------------------- _ appendu...3} ______________________ _
_ Mali - _Pro jet d' irrigation_____________ ____________________________________________________________
---Cttrren-t-data set-is Ana!1•s.e-finandere
_Las..t plan_ or ocesseL= _Puj.et
PR"INT ING RE.S\.JtTS- OF- PtAN CAtCUtAT!ONS--
Code_= L -:-:- COMMODITIES __ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C•J de = 2 -- INVl:STMENT'.3
Code--= }:.-·.:. tOANs--- - - - - - - - - - - ------~----------
· Code--=-4---- Full pr-into!Jt--- - - - - - ·-------------------------
C1Jde = 5---Set nbr o_f derL digits_(curr~ni;_tL_____ --------·---------~----------·------·-----·-----·------- _________ ·- __ _
Code =_ 6 -- End_ of printing ___________________________________________________________________________________ _
- Enter- a-- nu~ber between--- 1- and - /,-------------------------------- -- ------ -
___ 4 ____________ ----- ------------------- -------------------------------------------------------- - -------------------------
--yo, have the foIIowing op1lons :--------------------------------------------------------------- ----------
--Code-=-1---Terri-inal--£R1-------------- ----- --------------------------------- ------------------
Code...=- 2._ ____ Line:-printe!'. (132_chrsLlL____ -------------------------------------- ---------- -- -----
f~J!-: l ---Wut~~Wli~ g~;-~~~-:~B------------ -------------------------------------------------
.En.te.r_,1-.nul'lhel.'_ hetweEn___Land__4__
4
-Ma-l-i-~Pr-t-jet-cl-1 i-n-iqat i o n - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
turrentda1ase"Gs-Ana lyse financiere
tasrp-i,m-processed-=- ~r-o-jer -------------------------------------
- ~- ·--·----
__ _P.RlNIING ..RESULT5-0EJLAtl.CALCULAUON5-
- tode·-=·-r-=·~--coKMODlTlES
Code--=--2--INVESTMElfFS------ -----·---
Code __;. __ 3_--:.:..--:..LOANL_________ --------
--t~~; -~ -~ ::: -~~p
n~~-i~f°~~c, d1gTts 1 c u r r ! ! n t = r r - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
--Code-- ~-6-- End- o-f- pr-1n-t1ng--------------
-------------------·

-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

·-· ------ ----------·----. --- --·-- - ··-- ... ---··· ··-- ·-····· ------- -------·--·· ·-----·-----·-·- ·--·· ---· -·- - - - - - · ·-·----·--- --··-·-- --·- -··
 ANNEX 5
Appendix 2

-- -s----·--- -- -- -- ---- -- --- _, . ___ ----~. ·--- ----- ------------ -·----·- ---- ·------------·---·---

_ _ MalL-:_ Pro jet d' irrigation _- . -- - - -- --------------- -·--_--- --

----current data-set is Anarvse nnariciere ______ --····--··-- ·· ----- ·- ---·- --·-- --- --··-··----·------- -----
- - . l:..ast·plan-processeo = Pr~jet--------------
- - - - - - - - ----------------·----
Code = 1 Select a plan
-·--c-ode-=z----calc ulci Hnf-V-a!ues
- - - tod~-=-3--- Printiittt quantities/values-
--~CJlde " 4 Calculating__bahncelretum on_a_ ~ l a · ~ - - - - - - - - -
Code = 5 Aggregates and sensitivity analysis
-- -Cod1r·=-s--·rransfer·resulrs·ro-MANirr-- - - - - - - - - - - -
- -....C<Hle---"7--- End-· of-plafl pNcessinn--------------
- - ----------
Enter a n1rnber between 1 and 7 Calculating balance/rate of
-----4---·------·---·-·--· ·--------- return-on the current -pTarf;---:---
---·· ---- -- -·- -··-·-- ···--· -·-· - -·· ----- - ·- --·--·- -·----------·-·- ----------------------- -- - - - and printinq- resul 1s first- trr---
_____ You.have the following ,rntions.. L_____________________________ _ ___________ outputflle. and_second .10 the_ __ _
Code= 1 TerMinal CRT terMinal.
---- ·Code=· 2--- - tine-printer (132 chrs/1,-------------- ---·--·--------·--- -·-·--------------- -·--------·
-----Code =--3---HP-printer (22°f. chrs/1)- - -
___Code_= L_ Outputfile (221.chrs{l) -----·
---Errter... a· nu Mb er- benieerr-i-anr
- - - 4------·- -· . --- --· ... ·--·-------·--·
. Mali - Projet_d'irrigati1n. ------------·
- '· - ·- C<1rrerH- da-ta- set-- is Anal~>se--iinandere---
--. ___ LasLplan prQcessed_ =_Proje.L.c...
Code=·,----- Se leer-a ptan--
. - Codl' = 2 ---- Calcula1inq ...al,Jes
----·---·-----

Code_;:_3 ___ Printing__q_uantitiesivalue.~--

Code = 4 Calculatino bal~nce/return on a plan
-·-code =• r----Aqgre Hes" and· selisfHvf1yarfalysfs
- Gode"' o----· -1ransler- re5ults- h-MANlfL----------
._ Code=_L ___ End.~£. ~lan.pr!lcessing__ _______________ ----------------------·---
Ehter- a· n,rnb!:'r berween- r·a·na-r · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --------·----~---~
---- - --4---- -- ····--· -·· -------- ·----·--·
---------··------·
You have the followina ootions :
--·---code·= r--- Ter11inat"C:n
----Code--=-~---line-or-inter-+132--thr-s/1-}------·----------
Code.=:.. L _ Hr-prin tel'. .l227_ c h t s l ~ J ) ~ - - - - - - - - - - - -----------
- Code_=_ 4 _____Outputfile i227 chrs/1) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
Enter a nur;bef' belween-- 1-and--4-- -----------·---------·----
__.L_·---·--·.

___________ f1ali----Proje.Ui~icric:ati.,,,___ _ _ _ _ __
---·· ~D~]J!i_e _fi!!_a_!lFcC1·Fe.t._e_~----
·Jurrenq : n
----·-- ----·
- - - ----------- -------- .JOTAL..BALANCE... OVER . LIFLOf._PLAtL----·--····--------
--------=========-=---======================================~========
2r:.1tr~1,•n- ·-----·-··----------·--- -----·-------·--------··------·on· theter,unar,-·tables ~re -
-·----·-·-·-Year-··----1 ·---~------3-----+---- ··80-cnaraeters-per--Hn~--
_ _ }rojet PeriMetre -448420000.2 -517381219,7 -118271599,9 83582220,3
-====. ===. =======================-· ·=· === .... ·--·· ..... ·== .. ··- -· --- -·-·= ...... - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
------- Pr·ess CR key· when· you--wan1· to continue--
--·· - · · - - - - - - ·-------
----------- ------·-·--·-· ·--·--···----------··-·-··-·--·----·--·----------------·------

----·. - · - - --- - --··-·-· ··----------· ··--- - · . ·------·------·-----·- ······--·--·. -·- -- ... ----· ----------------·-·---·---···---
---- ---···----- . -· --------· .. -- . -- .. -· ---------- ·-- ------- --------------- --------- ··-····------·-··-----------·· . --·----------
'

- -·---··----- ---- ------------- ---- ----·--------------------------------------------- ---·--·------------------------------

 moo: 5
Apuendix 2

- --- ---- -- - -- -----· - - -- -- -- ---- ..

=~~~-~-·-_: ~~liA~ai~~ti1~;~~~~;:tior1 _______ ·-----····- -··--··---·-·-··---·--- ------·- ---···--·--·-·-··-----·

- - - - ------·-·-·- -··Currenq :-FCFA ·------- ·---------- ----- ----··
··--· TOT Al FALANCE OlJER UFE OF P-LAN____ -- ------ - -- - - - --- -· -· --- ·- -----·-·- - ---· - -- .
~---· --- =====. == ·===============================::::=============·· =========-
- .-21-10-19S3·------ · - ----- - - ---~------------···-·--·- -··· ·-·- ----- --···-------···
-·------YeM------------5------6.. L-----a:-12. - - -
Pr oJet Peri11etre 151185115:r 233! 95000 ;-,r--;!4921>0 OuO~T-247270 000~4
--==-=============-===-======-==========---------===-----==---------------
----------------··------
---tiaH--- ~r-o jet: d-' i rriga-tioo- ---- -------- ----
_____ Analyse frnannere.._____ - - - · · ___ ---·-----· ----------------··--- ·--··-·
________ Cvrrencv _:_ FCFA _______________
TOTAL BALANCE OVER LIFE OF PLAN - · ·- - - - ---- -- - -- - -- - ··
2!-IH983
· -· -··-· ····--- -· -· Year - ---- · ·· -· ··2c-·-··-- ·-- --· ··-···- -·--··-···-- -----··--- -- · ··- ··

_Pr ojet_ Peri111Hre ___ 9702.S'2.UOL5

====================-=========
--· rres-s ·cirhr11hen f ou--,i".rn r-t o·conrirrue
- - ------·-- - ------ --------------·--·-----------------
-- R..a.te...o.£.re..turn..=...15...1. _ _ _ _ __
·· -Press CR"Tef wnerf yfu wanr to ·contfifue-- - - - - - - - · · · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · · · - · · · - · - ··--·-·----

__ MalL- fl.roje.t d' irr igati.un_____________________________________________· --------····

· C-urren,--ma· ser· is Anaiyse- fi:nancier_e____________________ ----- - ·-· ----·---···-·-·-· ··-·----- --------··--·-- ·---
last pl:10- processed =- Pro·ji?t-------- . ---~- --------··- ·-·-·-··--·-------------·-- --
Code = 1 Select a plan
·- · Cbde·-=- ,----care ulaiing--rarues
· Codt>-=-·3-- - - Prifl1inci- ouant i hes/vi1-l u e s - - - - - - - - - ---------------------·
_. Code _::__<\.. _ Cale ula hnq balance!l'e.iurn fr1La.... plaIL___ ____________________________ . _______ _ _____________________ _
__~~~: : -~ -·--· ~n~~l!~e~~~~,1t~e~!i~~Niµ_.~~~l_ysis _______________________ .. -·- ···--···-- ··- --·-· ····-····- ·-- -·-------·-·-- ··-
-- Code-:...7 -- End of-plan··processing·------ -------·-·--· ·-···-··--·· ------··---· ···------------· --·-···-·---···-···------ ·--··-··-
· - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - ~ ~ - - - - - - · - - · - - -------~--
Enter a-·-----
·--s--·---- n•Jnber between
----·-··- ---·- 1 and
- -7 - -
··----· 6a l clfl ~ti on--of- aqgr~grt<.?s-----·--
. . Mali-=-. Pl'o \et d..'.irtlga tion__ _______ ·-·-- (see resu.lts..1n.. appendl.LJl....._______ _
_ _Anal ~se_ fir1a~c_i_er~-- ·-----·--------· --------------------~-----~----···---·---·
lasi plan-pr~cessett :: PnJet--··------------------··----·-------- ·····-··- -----···------··--··----·-----------------·--·
____ ~odde_ = ,\______ ~r~n 1ta 11soecified_ 1aggr_~gate
\,o e = '- rrin a 3agrega es
- - £ode =--3-- End-~ .jggr~gate~calculationf5<.?nsi-tiv-ity--an-a-l7fr1
I

Enter a nui-lber bet11een

3 1 and
--- ::-.----·------·---·-----
------------·-----------------
____ AGGREGATES.. being calc ula.teL Hease_.1,1aiL.........__ _________________ _
You have the following oot1ons :
-··-code·=· 1-··· -·1er11inal cin-··------- ·-----------------------------··------------·-··
-- - Code- :--2--- line-printer-- (132- chrsll >--
-- Code..~__ 3. ___ ..HP.::prin ter... (221 chrsLl) __
Code = 4 __ Out_putfile (227 chrs/1) ____________
-·-· Enter-· a· nu1•.ber-- between -l-and--4-- -----------··----------------·------·---
____ 4_________________________________________ _
---·----·-· -------·--·--------·------------------·--------·--- -- - - -
·--------·---------------------------
 ANNEX 5
Appendix 2
--10---------- ·--·--· _:____ - ----·-·· ·- ----- -------· -·----·--·-- ----·---· ---------·
- ---··-------·--- ---- - --- - - ----- ---- ----- --- ---· --- ------------- -----
= 1 __- ReSUlts··b-ased on QUANTITIES____
Code _ _ --· ·-· - - -
---code·= z··~=- iesul ts based on 1mLUES - -
--Codf· = 3 __;_ Re-sul ts based on QUAIHIHES AHrt %lUES -- --·-· ----- ·-------- - - --· - ----- ------ -----··------·-- ---

__/liln.ul!Lµo.1Llike...tJLrate.. o.Ue.tur11-ancl Siiitc:hing.. values_] _______ ··-----------

- N
--Hair---Projet· qLirrigation-----------------------·
---Analyse... financ1ere. --------------..........,
---rrsi-pI an-pT1ffessea =-fffjet
____ Code__= 1___ E.cin.t a spedfie!Laggrega te._ ____________________________________ _
Code= 2 Pr_1d·~tfaH aggr-ega_tesr-rn· ·--·-,---~~-- - - - ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ·-··
··nae= :r- En o aggregate ca cu af1on.sens11iv11y andi~s1s
- - - - · - - - - - - - - - - · ··----·------- -----·-------· - - · - - · - - - - - - - -
___ EoJer__a nL,t1bet. between._J_and.._3 ______________________________________________________ -···----··------- ___ ..
1
- - - - ·-AGGREGATES---------------- - - - - - - - -- --- -----------. ---------- --------.-
12 Cereales ----------
-·--Index nu1-1ber-of aggregate- to-bep-rinted--+-----------
__ E.nJer_ ___ tLiLnone_
- - fnrer· a-ntttber·befween·11-·an(t--13
--+-----
---- ------ - - - - - - -----·----~-----------
PERIKETRE -- ls it OK ?
-~----
- ~
- - - - --~-~~--------- · - - - - - - - -
__ . Code...=_1_ ---= Resul ts..h.ased nn. QUANT111EL_______
Code = 2 -- Results based on VALUES
Code··= 3·-;;c:.-;:;-Res·u lt ~based-on QUANTlT IES-Anl,VAtUES
Enter a_ n1rnber be!ween_LanL_L_________________________ ·--·--·-·-- -------------··--------------
2
------ Wo-uld ~·r,u- like-rate- of retu,·n and swi tchinq--values-,.--------- -·----------·-·-- ·-- -------·--- -- ·--- ---·-·- ··- ----·---
-·-· _'{ _____ - - - - -- __:_ ______
--11crH.--,;;- Pro ient'irr:tg,nron
---Analyse-Financier----------------------
Last ~lan_Jlncessed = Proj~t
- -- Code- =--r---Pr-~ftFa-specifi~ aggrega-te---
___ Co.de= -'------------Pr111LalLaaqrega.tes___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
___ Code= 3 ___ End of ag_oregate calculation/sen·;itivity analysis
- - -·En ter--a--nuttber-between--1--a-ntf---+----------------
__ L _________: - - - = - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----~ali - Projet d'irrigation- - - - - - - -
---·C11rren-t·d-~ta-set--i~-Andly~e--tinancier--------------------
__J_as.t.plan...!11'.Kessed...£...ernJe.L ____________
----eudr=-t-· -·-selec nr olan ·---------
---- Code· =-2-·- Calculatinfl values-·---· --·-------------------
______ Code .. _=__ L_.Print1ng _qiiantities/values.._ .... -·---------
----· ~~~;-~- ~---~~~~~t!-~~~\~~t~~;;~~it~~ :~ahH-t~----------------·---------
---- Code-=--b------Transfer- resul ts·to MANIP -----------------
---· - Code_= 7-._End._ot.plan..orocessing · ------·---------
--·--------------------

------·--------------------------------------·--·-------------
- - - --------·-·--·----------·
--· ---------·-------------------------------------------------
--···------ ---- · - - - -------------·-------------·-·-····----·----·--·-·---------
----·---·-·-·---- ----··-··- .. -------·-----------·-· ------ ---- -------- - .... - ·--- ·-----·······--·-··--- ----·----------------- ------

- . ----·. ····--- -·-··- - . ·····--·- ---·-----------·-···· ----------· -·--·--·- ----·-·-

 ANNEX 5-
Appendix 2

· - - - - ------ ---- --------·--·- - ---------- --------------- ··------------ ------

11 ----
___ Enter a nu;,.ber bet1ieen 1 and--7---- - ---
6·
------ -----

Transfer of all results to files----

with saile qener ir naMe. ~here ______
Current data set 1s Analvse financiere data can Di further used Hlth
---Las~ plan processed= ?rojet --··----·----~---------·-----------·---·--· ···-·----- - - the M'l!P prograM11e,
- - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - · - - - - - - -------- --~-----------

Transfer results to HAN!P

---Code-a-1--lJ<;e- files with-sai,\e- generic nar1e-(MAIJ-}-----------------------------
__ Co de_~__2_ ___Use_ files llitlL cL differenLgenedc:__ natte_iCJJuenL=U!Jtl!flflfJ<l!JtHJHIJ _______,________ _
_ Code_=_ 3 __ Select a diffe~~nt __ generic na11e . _
- Code = r [no of tr ans fer to I\ANIP-----
__ Enter.. a__.nu11her_ betweelt__j_ and____A _ _ _ _ __
1
-------- ------------~--------- ---------------------
Mali - PrQ jet d' irr-iga t1on------ --- ------------ ------- - ----------- ------ -- -- -
Current
- -· Last planda1a S!t is Analuse financiere
processeo = Pro Jet-- -- ------. ----------------------------------- ----- -- ------------- --- -------_ --------
-----·------------·---- --------~--~---·-------------··--·-----~---------·
__ Se lecJi on_.nLresul ts_ t o_transfer_ to__MA}!1£__flles__MU
--code--=-1---coMMOIHTlE;i
- - -Code=- 2 - - INVESTMENTS--------------- --------------------·----------------
-- __ Code_~ 1 ___ LOANS _ ________ _
--- Code= 4
tode =- 5--- AGGREGATES
PLAN BALANCE _______________________ ---------------------------- ------
-- Code--:::-6--- All results------------
___ Code_ __;:__ L ___ ~pecify tes~LL type: (cgrrenL:_~ALUESl__ _ __
Code= 8 tnd of transfer to ttAN1P
n~Mber-- between--+ and---S----------------------
- Enter-a
z________________________________ --------
C-ode =-1-:.~;:;-iesurr~;- oge1-on-QTJANTITIES-_____________________________________
Code-:::-2--Resul ~s tw,ro on VAt.lJES-- - - - - - - - -
Code_:: 3-_-:.::-: Results based. ~n_ QUAfi.Jl1IES_ A{'lfLV&LUf5___
tnter -a-·n C•iibei' belween -- r- and~------
- --- -3-------- ------ - ------------ --·------~- - - ~ -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -----------···- -- - ----- -· --·-----·-

__ Mah- ProJet d'irrigation

-------~---------
-- - -£ ur rent- data-set--isAnal}•se-tinandef'-------- -----------------------
-- Last plan.processed_= flroJe~------- ----- . -----·---------------

Selection -airesults 10 transfer· ro-MAN!P--f1tes·MAtt

... - ·----. - --------------------~----------------------- .----·-------
____ Code_ =--L- _ COH~ODITIES ________
Code = 2 IN\JESTMENTS
CoM=--:3·-··toANS- -------
- - Code- aa 4--AGGREGATES-------
- Code__:_ .5 __ PLAN. BAL~HCE_ __1_ _ _ _
Code= 6 All results
-- -- Ctide.--=-7·-·----speci ff-resulf fypTffufrenr=--UUAN1r VArr--
---·--£ode- -=-!3 -----End-of- transt'er--10-MANIP-------- - - - - ·--------------
Enter a OQl-\ber between 1 and 8
---- -6·--------·· ····-·----------------·------------------- '
··-·· ------ - - - - - - - - - - - - - p - - . '-·

------------ -- - -- - -- ----- ----- -- -- - ------- ------ ------------------------------------ -------------- - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - -

 ANNEX 5
Anpendi:x: 2

--- - - 12
_____ Mali_ -_ Pro j~t d' irrigation_________ ____ _____ _ __ ___ _ _ __________ _
-CtJrrent oat a set is Anal}·~e tinanciere- - - - -- --- - - -- - -------- - ---- -- -- · - ------ --
-- ____ Last plan processed- =.ProJet-- - ---------- --------- ---- -------- --- - ----- -- ----- - ---- . - ----------- -- --- ------- ---- -------
----- Selection of-location of transfer· to nANff ---- -- --- --------
___ Code__;:1 _____ AoP.end.. tn existing data_________________________________________
Code = 2 w·rite fror~ a soec1fic variable no11ber
---code =--r-----usrvari"ables' iri-desffnatiorf file__ _
---- Code-=- 4-- --Variable nai;es- to be-copied--over--(cvrrent-=--YES}
____ C.nde_= 5 EriLfro1Ltran.sfeLllllWHL _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
---· - E'nrer -,i--ntmber· between--ran~
-- ----2 ---------- ---------------
·---. - . --- -- · - - - - - -----------
**~H-HHl!l!lfHHH
AGGREGATE PERIMETRE-- ---------------- ---- ------- -------------------- --------- ---------- ------ -------
CAN ONLY B€ SPECIFIED IN-VALUES!!~- -- - ------- ----- - ---- -- ---- - --- ----- ----The-pro.Jr,1;1,e-will disolay-- ------
- _ REQUESTS rnK QUANTITIES_ ~ILL BL IGNORED ___________________________________ su1 table ?sessages when tnete.. _____ _
HH-H'.liHlfHlfHHH are rncons1stenc1es,
- ~-- -- Press- CR ke\' when 901rwan-r tllcontinue------------------------------------------ ---- ·- --- ------ · - ·-------- ---- --------
lfl!H:H·X·H'"'******** ------------------------·--
LOANS CAif ONLY BE SPECIFIEf-HnJlUES! ! !
- - NOTE- :- Alt REQUESTS FOR LOAN QUANTITIES \i/!tt-BE-mlORED ----- --------------:--- - - - -
___ ll*H-Hl·HiHil'-*lllfHH- - ---------- ------ - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · · · - - - - - -
- --- _Pcess_CJLke~ when.. you r1ant..10 continue_____ -------------------------- ----------------------------
----- En·1er---i-n Ut;ber- between--·r-a:nd"""147-t·- -------------------
1------- - - - - - - - -----------
A block of 27 variables will be read and added to your
currenr-MNIP- dataset -- ---------------------------- -------------- ---------- -------- - - -- ------- ---

~f~ss __CR __ ke~_when yr:u_1HnL.to con.tinue_ __ ---------------------------------------------------

lllllll4llllllflllllll
PLAN BALANCE CAN OHL Y BE SPECIFIED IN VALIJES! ! !
NOTE-: ?E9UCST FOR PLAN EW.. ANCE QUANTITIEt-\HLt-Bt'. IGHuREir------------------ -------- ----------------- ------------ . -----
--------- liHlffHX~HHHlHH*- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----------------------------------
--- . Press CR ke','..11hen. i ou_ want _to_c.ontinue____________________________________ -----------------
-----11a11 ;..- ?roiet d'irriga!lon
Current data set is Analyse--financiete__ _____________________________________________ _
_Last_plan_processeo =_Projet ___ -----------------..----------------
-Se lee ti r:n- i:rf-· res11 l ts- to-tr,msfer--trMANIP-fi-les-Ml:l------ ----------------- -------------------------------
Code= 1 COMMODITIES
Codtf= Z -- 1NVESTMENrs·--------
-Code =c- 3----- LOANS-
Co.de_~. 4____ AGGREGAlES.
Code= 5 PLAN BALANCE
Code-~·c;--· Alt·resulr~· t ------------
- ---· Code---:.-7--- SpeE:ify-resYl-Hype- (current---=-- QUAiil- ~ V A U - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
------ _Co de._=:.__L____ End. a-f..Jransf eLtn. MAtUL _:__:_____________ ---------------·----
·---- - Enter· a nl11;ber-- between ··t-·and-· a------:--·-----------------------------------·--------------------------------
----- .. 0---- ------- ----- -- - --------- ... -·------------·--· ---------------------·· ---·---· -------------------------·-----------------------------------
--- --··------ ·----- - --- ------·--· --··-·------------- ------·------- ----·---- --·-----------· --·---- ·------- --·----- ------
-··------------··----------------------------------·----·---·----------------·-·-··-----------·----------
··-· ··--·---. ·----·· --- -- -·---- -----· ----------- ·- -------------···· --·- ·----- -- ...... --- --······--- -· -·--· -------· ···-··---- ·----------
- -- --·-- ···--·- -· ·-·--------------·-· ·- ----- -- ------ ------------------- ----- -------- ---- ·····------ -------- -----------------· - - --------
. ·----··--·-··-·--- ····-·- ------ --- --·--·------- -------·--···-·-··--·-··--- ---·-· -----· ----- --···--·-----·--·---------------·-·-·--·-------
--- . - ··- ---·----- ---·---- .. ___ --· ·---·- --·-------· ---- ·--· -· ------------·-· ---··--··- .... .. ·-··- ·---· ---- -··- -- ----- --·---·- - ----·---·-- ----·----·-··----
--· -- -·- ·····-·········- .. ------····. ···-·-----·----·· -· ··-·-- -·-·--·-·· ····--·------·-·--·-··· ···-----·--· ·-·-··-·----· .. ·-·--------------··------···--------·--·-----·--
-·- - . ------ --·-·--- ··-·-·----· ·-·--·---·· ---..···· -·. --- ·--· -- ---- ---· --- ·--· --·-- -- . -· ---·- .. ------···-· - ··---· ·----·- -·--··--·---·-···--· -- --· ·-- - - -------------·---- .
 ANNEX 5
Appendix 2
... :_ .-13
___ MalL~ Pl'~_Jet d' irrigation--- -
----·rurrent :jat( seCis Anah'se Hnanciere·--- ·'----·--- ·-···-·----- - -------.

--- - Last plan-processed= Projet---- ---------

-------- --- - ·-. __ ., ____ -·
Code= 1 Select a ol1n
----· co·de·= 2.. -. -·· Calculatino values ----------·-----------..~- ···-- ------ ------
___ -Cod~•- 3--- Printing_ q~3nti1ies/'lalv~ ---- ----- --------------- ~--·-····- ---· --- --------·---·-·-··-----------------------·
__._Code__::_4.___ Cakulahna baLince/return _on. a plan___ __________________ -···---------·------------ __ ----· ____ _
--~~ge_=:_
- 1..oue ::: a
t---
Aggreqa!.!?f_and1 senfsitiA· vN11·ty_a!l_a_!1.sis ____________ ._ _ __
1ranster resu ts o 11 P-
--Code--1--- End ef plan processing------------------- --- ---- ------------------·---------·---

--, Enter a nuf'ber1,e·tween--T-arid 7

----------------
------·-------
·----- --·---·--·----------------------

_____ t\.alL:.flroje.1_ ~irrigati.on__ __________ ._ _ _ _ _ _ ·-·· ·-------- ---------------------------

___ Curren1oata-seC1s Analyse· rrnanc1ere -------------------- ·-·-- ------·----· --·------------------------
_____ Code =- L __ Creating a new data base ___ . ____ --------------- _____
Code= 2 Listing the ~ata base
---- -- Code'.= 3 --- · Pr9cessing a PLA~------- ---------- -------------- ·-- -----··-- ·--·--·- ----·---·--- -----·· ---· -----·-- ---- --- ---·---- - -----
--E~~t~t--- ~~a t~~g j~~: dat;t-base------:-·---------------- ------ --- --------- ------ --_------------- -------- ~-:=~
--Entt!r-iI·nuHber· between-1·c1n<t-s- ------------------
----5--------·-----·-----· ----------- -·-- · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----------- - ----- ---------
- Gosh what a job ! ! ~ · -
----- Birr i wont hesitat!f to 110rk tor- you SOMflither-ttt1e ------------------------------------------ --

-------------------------------
----------------------- - - - -

- -- -----------------------·--·-- --------·--------- - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - -

·----- . ------------

----------------- ------- --·--- -----~ - - - - - - -

-----·----------------------------------
---------------------------
- - - - · ------ ---·---------·- --- -

---------------------
·--·----- --------------------------·---

---··-- -------- --- -- ------- \ -------·--------------------···-·-- -----·-------·-·· --- ------ ---------·- ------. ------·-----------
 - J.Jffi\<'~ 5 - ----- - -- -- - -
/..nnendix 3

Hali~ Pro\et d'irrigition

-- ------ -- fct~yse f'uianciere - -- -- -
-- -- r- 20 ----
12.(L
HHUH~HHHfHtlHHHiHH.f1;H/HHH*lf
CC~!IOD IT IES - ---
- - Riz -- -- ---------- -- ------- tennes - -------- ------ -- - - ----
A 1 \Bnooo. _____ - ____ ·______ ·------·-------------- ________________________________________________________ _
Hais · tonnes
---- A r-230uoo----------------- ---------------------------------------------
Intran1s- ------- -_ ------- 1.0QQ FCFA------------------------------------- ------------------------ 1

____ [LL __ 1QQQ _______________ ----------------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~

_---lr a?B __ 70 0------------- ho11Me- jour _____ ---------·---- __________________________________ _

-- ti_ag~ . _5 --- ------------·M} ___ -----------.------------------------------------- ----- - - - - - - - - - - - :

EncadreMen t ________________
A I 1000\100 Mi 11-- ions
-------------------- ------------
f!,!jttTA -- -- -- --- --
Hi.iffl:f"'*HFH:HHH·Hl<HHli':HHHH-B,H****** ~- _ __ ..... ____ _
ACTIVITIES
~g _irr i gue ---- _- __ ---- · · --_--p --- Ha_· __ · -___ ------- · --- -- _----- · ·---------- ·--------_-------- --- --- _---.- __ -----· ·-- __ -- -__ · _------- --------------·
___ A. 4__ 2_ _2_.5___3__ __ 3...5 _____________________________________________________________ _
Intrants C
---· -A- 4·-- 35- ~-45--·5z---:-- -------------------------------------------
-·Travail-- - ---·------ ----·- C------------- --·------ - --------·- -------------------------------------------------·
. __ A. _L. _____ J 18. ________ . _______________ . ____________________________________ ------·------------------ _________________________ _
END
-·--- Riz fhttant --- --------H!--------------------··--·-------------------------·-· · ------------- ·
~ Ri L . ----- -·- --·- - -·-- ---- ··--------~--------------·---·--------·---------------------·------------ ·---- ------· ------- ..
A 3 _________
Intrants 1 1.5·------------
2 ----·-·c:---------------------------------------------------------·- -· -----------------·--------··

____ ~ra,~iL __ . 48 __ Sit- __ bO- _C ___________________________________________________ ·------------------------------- __ '

-- - ~mrt -------- ·ta --- -------------------------------------------------------------------· ---------------·'
H~ san$ proje1 - - - - --- ~-- -------------------------- -----. ---- _ -------··-- -------· _ -------- ----- --- -------
A-- r·- ---- ·- ·1. 5. ·--------·-------------- ----- ----------- ---------·-·---- ----------- ---------------- ·- ------·--- - -· - - - - - ------··-_------
In tr-ants ···-···-------------·--- - -C ·--····--·--·--·--------- ----- ·----· -· ----------· -·----- ------------------- -- ·----·- -------- ·--------------
A.. _ L _______ J 1~4... _____ ----------------------------------· _____________ ---------------·----. _____ _
--- -- Tr
A- mil
. r- ------ 5.f _______________ C ·----------··-··--·-·------·- ---··--------·---··- -· ----- ·- --- ···- ---· --·- - · --- ·--· ------ -- ---
. - -EN!)------ -·-- --- ------------------------·--- -------·----- --------------- ------------·- - ----·--------------- --.

~~!~ (Fjjet 5 ________ ~-----------------------------------·-------------------·---- - ___ _

A - 3-··· --· · --- }-·-- · 1-. 5- -·- ---2 ··-------- ----------- ---- --·----- -· ----------· .. --·--·- · ----- --·- ----------··· ------- ------ ------· -------------- -----------
Ir: tr an ts _____ . _. _ ___ . ______ c._ _____________________ ----- .--- ---·- --- --------··--------- -- --------- -- ---·-------------··
A 3 ·--- -· 21
--- -- Trava11 30 35
.. ------------------·c-··----·--·--------- -- -----·· ---------------------- --- --------~-----·-· ·--- ·-··---------- -------·------
---- ~-- 1 --··118------·· --··--------------------------------··--------------- --·---------·--------------
-·- END... __________ 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
[.NDATA
·-· ~- Hi¥.HHffH:~-HX-H·HH·HH'l:H:0:HHll --,- - ------- -------------·------·-----·-------------------
- INi/£STMENTS--- ---------------- - - · ·------- ------- ··--- ·- -- . ------------ --·- ---- ----- -- - ------- --- ·--------- -----
. - A!',enaQeMent.. - -------------. 11illions.- ------ - - -- . -- - -- -- _____ - ------··----- - ----------------
A 3-
50-· ! s100UOOO10·--o--- ---- -----------------------
E~.DATA · · - -- -- ·---·-------- - - - -- --- · · -------
. ___ HlHH'ffH','f.Hf.H·HHHHHHHHHH... __ .. ---------------
 ANNEX5---- - -- -- ---·--·--
Aouendu 3---------- ---------
---- 2

~GG~EGAiES-- -- --- ------------ ---·----- ---

Cereal'es -- - · - -- -- --- ·· - ---- tonnes ---- · -- -- ·- -- ·
QUANT- -- ---··· - -·------··----- -----·----- ----·----··-----
Rit 1
Mais-- ---- 1
- -- EHO-- --·-·· ----------·-----·-----·--·-------·------------------- -- --- ---···--------·--· ------·-·------·---··---------------
?ERlttETR[ ________ u_ __________________________________ --- --·-------------------
tJALUES
-- Riz · ----- i------------------ --·-- ----------
---- Mais - -----·----1-- --------------------------. - -----·--------·-
__ Ar1e11ageMen.L ------- --·
In~rants 1
-- - EncadreMenr·----------,-··---------------· ----·---------··- --·--------------------
--- - Pof'.ljlag~ -------
___ END _______
£MDATA
l'k'ilHlHHlHI*HJHl!Hl!HHlfHlflfl!Hlr----------·--·-------------- . ----- - -------
TRANSFERS -- - -------·-- - -·----- -·--·-·-- ---------------- -- ----· - · -·------ ----- ---·---------- ----------·----- ----------
-.. MRr~i1~ou~agL ____________ t1l___________________ ----- - ----- ----- -------------- -----------------------

~~6ATA------ ~- -~~ - - - - - Pol'\paqe -------------- ------. ----- - --------- . - --------

HHlll!HHH.X:llHfllHllHlf*************--------------------- ____ - - - - - - - - - - - ___ - - - - - - - -
-~-~---=· :~~=:=--
LOANS
---- Creiti nt1n:a~;oa1ine------nra
• - -- - l----- 1-3-;.c-...- - -
-----. PAID __ --------- ------ ____ EQUAL.INST~_ _ . .-----------~---·· --· ----------------·---------------··-·- - ~ - -
In~rants
- EN DATA - ---·-- -----------
SEPARATE
___ llllHlflfOlf*H*HHl!t-H*l!*llllHH*-!ll!Hl'.---~----------------------------- ' - - - - - - - - ·
_ __ rLANS...._ -------- - - - - - - -
---- - 'hz- dr es se ---------------rer u1etre ·-------------
- Rn irrique-;-----------Pl- ------·--------------------------
_____ A__ 4~- n___ 1na_-__ 25n_ ___ A5o______________ _____________ ____________________ ------
- __ ~au df _pe11~r~~o-------- TR-------·--------- __ ------------------------------
-- - £NO- -----· -------------·--------------------------·-------
Riz bas-fonds
-- -- ~lZ
Perit1etre
fl Ottan t ---------n-- --------- ----·-···--------- ------------------------------
.. --- A -- 4----0---7~----15&---250----- ---------·---- -- --- ··----------·- --------·-----------------·---
--~,rn dr-p•11~~~io______ __JR- -------------------·
- ----·END-. ------- -· ------ ·-------·------- ----- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

--- . Projet------ Perilleu ....

e- -
- Riz dresse
A----T -- A -- ----·--
- - Riz bas-fonds-----------A---- ------------ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- A. __ -·· 1_____ 1____ -----------------------··-----··------··-------·-- --------
___ ~a_i? ~p~o_jfr!>__ 20-or--rJ!-rsr------------- ·-- -- ------ -------- ---- ------------------
- CredH-ilt>-camaqne ------------- -·----------------
__ A. ___ /.i._. IL6L._0....6n___ .._U.50_J.._4.L__JL.311.__ !UL._______________ _
---~i_z__s~?~~dr A • _-------·---------------
------ fnudreMen-t- i:t----------------------·-·-------·-----·-------··------------
·--·---- A. ---1-- -- - L - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - · - · · ··------ ·--------···- ·--·-- -·--··----·---------------------·----· -·-·
A1-1enaoeMent A
···-·A 6- · - 396~6-· 4S€;·c··-177. r·-··u:r·--·· 39·;-a-·--· o-··
---- -- £HD·----·----·------------··-·-- -------- ·· - - ·---- ·--- ·---·--- ------ - --·· ······ -- -· ·---·-· ·------- --------·----------
··-- - EN DATA- ---- - ... -------- -·- ---------· - ··---·· · ··--·- -···-----,-------·--·-·· ···· ·-··--·-········- ·-- -- ----···---------·------------·-- --------------
****·***********H**H*H'HHHHlFHH***** - ______ ----------- ______ ·-- ________ ··---- ___ _
0:jfHHUli**** ~UUHHHHHH·O*HHHH ---
 ANNEX 5
APpendu: 3

- ::::;;=--::::::- ... ::;; ... : ;: : ... - - --·-- --------- --- ·- - --- - - -

·- - . _,._ ---- ··---- -~--~-------~--~ ---------- -- ---- -----------~·-- -------- ---.-- --·-------------- ---- ----------~- --------
~----lki~}0Hn~ ·: fro·1ecf naM1f (Mx:·5~ char .r·-------------------------------------------------------------
---------- 2nd-line-:- Data set na/'le- (Max-,-36 char-.}-------------------------------------------------
----- 3rd line..: Currency naMe. (Max ... 10. char.} ________ ---- - _ ___ . ____________ _: ________________________ _
-------~!~ tt~:--;-~i~ir r:~1 ~ \-i~r1{r~~~p ~{ itHlit1,{~nqe jt rearJt ---------:---------- -----
---~ ---~~----~--------- ---------------------------------------------------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-
--- o.,i . i - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - -
foJ 1tt. t~rii- : ----- ------------------------------------------------------------------
-- · - --1st line-~ NA!l£--{1Jp-t1i-2'5-ch-ar~ t·---1AB-..-UNH·{~\J 10-10-char-;)-~---- ----------------------------------
• - ····- - - - - - •-•+>·-- - < - --· -- -· -- ---· --~ ·- -- - - ··--· - •••• -·-· • ··-. --- -- -----·- •• ---- ---- -- ··- - ·--·-- • - ----------~----·

COM~OD!TIES : 2nd line_:_ T_i11e series of PRICES ________ _

· - ACTIVHlES : for ea ctr coMMOdi ty in the ac1i tti ty-:- 2-lines - - - -- - - -- - - -- -- --------- --- - - - ------ - ---------
- ___· ----------1st.line_:. NML-- TAB..- typ£. ___ --------------------------- --------~-------------·-------------·--
2nd line: Ti11e series of COEFFICIENTS
----- - ----------- END-on ·a-line ff the·eno·or me Hsnra-given toMModity ---------------- -------------~----
- - - - Possible typ~-t--C-(for- consur1~}-i-\1--(hr--prlld'.lced}------···------------------------------
. -~------ -- - ---··- ··- ··----····· -----------~--------~---·----------------s-•···-------·---------·--~------- - - - - - -
. ______ __l~V;SI_MENT_S :_ __ nu 1l;ne tt
__:_ Jj11e ?r_ie\10fivu~!rt prTiS~~[Ar+ roo--
l!H! , ;., f\\l1'u~rs , " ,\.J. t, 11.1:. nu
MATNT[lJA'JCC- ,y-·f--------- ---·-------------"----
n n ... "r, ., 1 t, or
------- -- ---------· -·-- .I\AIHTENANCE-COSTS 1- I--ot- CONTlrtGENCIES-;-X -f cr-- RESIDUAL VALUE------------------·-:-···-----
---·----------~- ·---------
AG~EGATES : 2nd line: VALUES or QUANT
· -- ----:· ·· --- ---r line for·eacfl--ifeM rn tneafgrifgafir-:-NAMr-;;_-TAB-;;.-1.£1GHI ___________________- - - - - -
-------- ---------- - It~ can be nMr.orli t7,--in11est11ent i aggr-egaH~·-or-- lom-,- - ---- --------- -----------------------------
--------- _ ------ . NuHhel' of iH!M.is. lrni ted-t o. 3t per aggregate,______________________________________ _
_______ ______ ________ END on a_ line at _the _end_ot the1ist of __ a g_i~en aggregate-----------------------

- ·-·----------~--· ·- ·---··--·---·----- ·-----· -----

LQAKS \ 2nd line : 3 nu11bers : GRACE PERIOD REPAYMENT PERIOD INTEREST RATEX
---- -- -----·3rd Iine : PAtu/NOTPATD--:-TAr::rQUAL:rnsr;coNST.CAPit- ----- ---- -------- ---------------
---------------- 4th· hnt-, HaM~~f ite!'I- 1i-ith--l.GiW AMO!JNTS---TAB- --SINGLE/SEPER1HE------------ - - - - - - - - -
------------ .l t~1uaILbe .c.nMttndit Y.. 1-in~es t11entr.aggrega-te.. at coM11oditie.s..and/ or._ ____ _
1n 1estMents, 1
--------------·- ··------------
· --- PLAl!S-t·· For- each i1eM in the-p!an-- t·2-Hnes------------- --------------------------'------------
·------ ______ _____ 1st 1 in e ~- NAME - J AEL-rtPL ______________ ------------------------------------------
2nd line : TiMe series of COEFrlCIENTS
----------------1".ND-on-a llne-af the eniror-the-Iist-for-a·g1ven-plan -------------··---------------
-- --- Possib-le- types·:- A Hor-annual-cald- 1 ------------ - -----·-------------
. -.------------Pl- (tor- vhasinq-calc--'"-nb-1-'-llt--Yni ti- is.--tota.l.-). -
___________ ----~~--f P~t~~dI~n~_
~:!~sfe~br units_ is)ncre!'ental_) _____________ _ of
- . . . PT- an~- PI-caJT·be·usechnlr foc-·activit:ies and-p1a-ns-,-----------·
-- ------ .. P<1ss1ble--iteM~-:- iny 11ung but---an- .aggregJte- ----------------------------- - - - - - - -
·-··--·--·nl'f-SERIES -----------------------------------
-~--·. =------====-- -------·--··-·-----------· -
line
____ Qn the s.it1e
---·--=- ~i~~e~s~<~!~;~~in~( -l------·· -------····-··--· -----···-·-·- --···---- ----------·-·-·--·- ------·--------------···------···-·--------------- ---
!~e~~p!.".;ergyla t_ion) LC( oriooond __ ra te) ________ -------------------- _----. ____________________ _
A- :-1st nur1b er- r 1ear· when· values get· constant- ···--next··:· list Qf· values------ - ------------------- -------------
1

------- Nul'iber. oi Jalues r.UST be equal to.~ 1st nutiber if BASE=1. _ ··-- _____ ··--- __________ . ________ . _ -------------· . ____ _
1

~ 1st nul'lber ~ l if BASE=O

· · · ··· t ;· C rrs1-n u~bef :· \faiue "in oas~ year {0 ar· ir·· · - - -- · ---·· - - - - - ----- --- · - - ·- -·-··- ··----· --· -- -·-- ·---- -----
- -· · 2nd and 3rd nuMbers: First and last year of change ·-·----------·----·····-------------------·- ----
-·- _______ .. 4th nu~1ber .. : if.L.: Value in last years .. _________ _ __ -----···-- ___________ ·-··---- . _ -----· ---·----------------
- --- To separite nut1bers/ts~ ~n~?1 ~~Ati/H7/\t~~~qtg~ic{!r~~crease)_ ---- ---- ---··-----····· --·-- --·--··----·-·- -----------
( 1(-lHlfHlHHlHH+HHH-HHHHOHHH*HHH*HHHHHHHHH*********) ---- -- -----· --- --· ·--- -- ··--- · -- - -
UWHHHHHll:'*~0-HHOH:ll\HHHH:UHHH*·i:HH~HHHHlEH·HHIH~HH ... __ __ .. ---· _ . ----------
 ANlIBX 5.
Apnendix 3

--- - ---- - - -- ---- -- -)faff- rrojetdri,r1gation - -

-------- - ---·· --· -- - Analyse financ1ere· -- -
------------------------ --- ----Currency-:.-fCfA -- __ -- --- ---

- - - - - - - - COMMOOITIES-------
1 Riz · tonnes 2 Hais · tonnes -
- - - T IntranTs · r.ooo FCFir- 4-rra•1TI1 -ho11Me,;;jour
---- S-PoMpaqe---------1'13------6 EncadreMent-----------,;illions·

--------------- ·---
------·--- ·-------·---
·------- - .•. ·-·------ - ·- - ----- - - - - - - - - - - · · - - - - · - - - · - - - - - - · - - - - - ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ACTIVITIES
7-: Riz irrigue-------------Ha---------------------------------------·· --------------------------- - ------ -
L COMM P_ RiL_~ ___________ 2- COMlt L_ln tr an.ts____ _______ _ _ _________________________ _
3 COMtt C Travail - - - --------------------

-----------------------------

------ 6 :- R1 t -no
tf dn f - - - - - - - - - m - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -------- ---------------·- -------
- - --- l COMlt P.- Rir-----------------2- COMM-G-Intrants---------------------------- --- - -------- --------
---- 3_ Cilr\l'LC. Jr.avail-
--,----------,,-- ---------

----------···--- --- --·- --------------- -~----------------·------~------------- ··-··----

-----rtuMZP-~0~i/~~je_t________-__lj~--z-com; c--nnranfs-- ----------------------·-

----- -3 COM/i--G--k-a 1aH-- 1 ------

_ _ _ 10 ~ ttaic. {pr~jet1 __________ - .J:la__________________________________________________________________________ ----------

--------31 COtttt
COMM C-P Tr
Mais 2 COMH C Intrants
avai i----------------------------·- ··- ----------- -------· --·---- --- --------· --
------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----------------

- - - - - --- 1N\JEST~EN1S-
-- ----- ---- .. -- ·----- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · ------------ -----
---- 11 AMenageMent _ _ _ _ _,,_i_llions ____________________
------------- - · · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

--------AGGREGATES·-+
____._ __ 12-Cereales..__________1.o.nne.s..___:__'._1.3. ..fERlMETRL_________ u__ ___________
--------·---·------------------------

·---------· ·-·- --- . ----- -- - -- - - -- -- --- -----·- - ----

------- .. --·--TRAHSrERs·---------------- . - ---- -·--- -·- ----- ----·-·--·-··- --- --- ---· -------·------------

--··- 14-Ei!ij de po~age ·-··----· ~-- -·----------- - -------·- --- ------- ·------ --- . --- --------·- ----·-------- --------

LOANS ·-·-----· -·--- -- .. ·-·. - - -·· ---·-·-·-·----·-- .. ·-· -·-

15 Credit de rn,pagne---·-- fc:fa··-·----------- -·-··- -
 _tlnTEX 5
Appendix 3

· PLAWS---- -- ·· ---
16 : Riz dresseTrrfcjue_______
-·-----rACTIPTRiz - Peri11etre
2 TRAN TR-Eau-de pol'lpage __________ -------------------------··

- -------------·--~~--------·----~-- - - ---- - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~ ·

----·--- --- - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - · - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - ·
- - ----17 ~ Rii bas.:-fondS-------"' Perittetre--------·- ---------·----------· - - -
------- I__ACTI PT_Ri1_£}ottant _ _ · _____2 T_RAN _TR Eau de Jo11page --------------------------------------

----------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - -

·- . -----------. - - -

________ lfali - Prajet d'irrigation__________________ ·-------------·-----·-------

----- ______ Ag~;l!~c ?~a~~~e -----·---------------·-------------- _________
- _- ---------- C0MMODITIES
PRICES OF--·------ -- - _.
-· . - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -----------· ·-· ----·
-- ---- - 7-1 H 983--- - - ---- -- · - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - ---------------- -·-- ----- --· ---··- ··--·- - - - - -
. -- -- __ __ ________ _ -Y~t ------ 1.··2(L ________ ---------------··------- ------------------------- ------- --- -- -- -------- - ---
----- Rff___ ---ron-ries---,souuu;o
-- -- Hais - ---- !onnes----230000-.0 - - - -
___ Jntrants--1~000..FC£L__ JOnDJl
Pot1age·---- h~Mf.e-jour
Tra,ail 700.0
A:r- - --------~. r - - - - - - · - - - - · - - · - -------------· - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - · - -
----- Encadre/'lent·- 11illions---!OOOOGUl---- --·-----------·----· - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · -

--- -----------------------------

- ~---------··---1.
- - - -------------·--

.. ---·-··------·----

. -----------------------·-·-·-·---· ---
-------- -··-··--·-·-----·--·---- --------·--·-----·--- -·-·.......--·-·---· -·--- ---·-- ···-·----·--·------- --·------------· ---------------
- - - --- · - --- ---------------------------··--------··----·-·····----·-· ----- ---------- -----·--··------ -------
 ft.NlOO: 5
. Annendix 3 ----- ------ -- - -
--- 6

Mali - PrQjet d'irrigation ___________ _

Analyse financiere .
Currenc,- f FCffl · ·-------------------------- -
--·------------------------- ------------·------------------------
- -----------COMPONEN1S-Or ACilVI1Y Riz-frrTgue _____________ ·--------- ------------------- ----------
-----·-- = . =· ::::· ·==-. =============· ============= ----
--------- -7-1 H 983-------------·------------------ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - r - - -
---- --·-- _____ Ye_ar_____ t ____ _2___-3_:_J-:-20__ --------------- - - - - - - - - - - -
----- --- Ri z------ --- PRoo----- ,. n---2. s---:u-- 3-, 5------------ --------------
- ------lntrants - CONS-35. 0-- 40.G- 45,t}--52.0- -----------------------------------------------
______ Jrm1.il __ CONS 118. L_118. L l1ELLJ18,(l_ ________ -----------------------------------------------

--- -- --- - l'\aH--- Proje!:d' ir~igation------- ------ --------- ----------- ---- --------------- ------------------ ----- --
------ ---- - Analyse t1nanc1ere--------------------------·-----------
------------ _ Currency_LfCEA
- - - -------------~----
- COl'WONENTS OF ACTIVITY-- Rh- flo-Hant----------·,----------- -------·-- ------- ----·----- - - ---- -·--------
---------- --------------------------------
·t-1i-1983 - ---- ··-· --- ··--------------------------------------·-------------------------
----------------vear---r---,-1-2r
Rir_ _ _ PRQD _ \.O ____ 1.5 ___ 2,11.__ ____________________________ _
Intrants CONS 40.0 50,0 60.0
---------- Trc1,air- CON3- 98'.0--- n-.r-9B.tr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
====:======:===========:;:;;.ri*~-------·-·----
--------------------
-------------------------
------------------·-- -·-·--··---------·--------· ----------·-
_Mali - Pro jet d'irrigation_ ____________________________________________________________________ _
Analyse
Currencyfin: an~ iere--- -------------------
FCfA- ____________________________________________ .. ____________
-- -·--- ------- --· ---·-------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---------·--·-·------ - - - - - ------------------·-

_____ COMPONENTS OF ACTIVITY_ Riz sans projet

=---====-=-=-====::::= -------
-----7-IH 983 ------------------------------------------------------
- ____________ Yea.I'. ___ t-2ft_____________________________ ----------- -- -
-- ------· Ri·z ···- -------PRmr-o:s -- ----------------
------- -- Intr-ants- CONS---11-;4---------------------·- ---------------·---
-- ____Jra,ail-- cmis_ 54.0 _ -------------
---=====-=-=-======

- - - - - - Katr- Pfo 1ef"'lf'T1rr1ga'f1on - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - ----------------

---------------- Analvs~-financiere-----------------.. -- . -- ______________ . _. _,, __________________________________ _
___________ .._·-- Currenq .. :_fCfA.._________________ . -·--·-·------ ------------------- ----·---- --------·------------ - -

-- --- CQKPOHENTS Of AU!VITY--Mai s I pro jet}-------·------· .. -·- ----·------------- -·-------------·-·-·------------.. - --------

.---------""':~"":'-:'.'-~--.--:----.-:-.-.-"."'--=-.--~--------·-----·----------·-··· -··· --- ----·····--·-······-·------·-··-··-----·--··-----------------
--------- 7-tl-1983
---- --·-Year ------,- - 2---r-20---------·- ---- ------- ----·--· --- ---·----- -----·-----·---------- --------------- -------------

~ah. -- - -- PR OD - - 1. 0 -- 1. 5.- -- 2. 0-----·----- --·------ --- -· --

Intrants CONS 20.0 30.0 35.0
· Trmil coNs ·11a.o·- 11e.o-· 11s.o
=========-==================- .. ----- ··-··
 ANNEX 5
Appendix .3 .
---- ------ - - ---------- -
--- - . ____ _,._______________________ --- ---- ---- -·· ··- ---· --·-·- ··--- l--- ...

- ~au·-:: Pro iet d'ifrigaffon··- - ---- -- ---- - -

Analy<:e financiere--- ----------- - -- - -
. __ ····----- - ---- Currency. ~-FCf~------·--···-·-- ... ---------- - ··-··
·--·----------
------- . UN ff PRICES OF INVESTttrnrs------------- ·--- --··-----·------------ ----- - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - · -
-- --------. --------------------- . - - -----------·· -- ----- ~ - - - ----- - --- - ··--··-------------------------
7-1 H 983
----- ·---·--·-------·Year ------- --------·---------------·-
-··-·-----------
----------A11enageMen.L-Aillions.-tOOOOOO...O-.. - - - - - ------- ---- ---·---------
========-=-=-===========--=---==

··· · ----- --- -·---- - ----Mali- Proje1 d'irrigatiort - - - ---

---------~----------------------~~;~:~t~aFt}r~---- --· -------------
---- ~-------------------- ----------------·---------·---
- ~~~~=~=- -~-~===-~=~-====
- ------------- ----------------------

.. --------- - -----·-------------- - D~TA..ON. INVESTMENTS..----- -------·--·--····----·····--·- ---- ---------·---·-. ---·

---- ----- --- NAMc--·----------uNrr·---Llff 7.CONTING lliAINTEN LAG; MA INT XRES:VAL-- -- ---------·-- --·---- ·--·----
··-·-----·4rienag!?Men.t_________ 11illions _____ 5o___10JL__ 5.JL_____ 1._______ .&..L _______.__________

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ·-----···--- ~~------
· - ----------------- · Mall --·pro Jei-d ,.1rnoa t 1on----------------- ---- --- ------
-- ·· --- - - - ------------------ Afta-lyse--f'inant:itt-e---· -----------
··· ___________ . __________________ wienc.y _:_fCF A.____________._________

- -- ----- ----·-c---------------- DITIN!HON-OF-AGGREGATfS---------·-------------------------------·--------··-·----

·----- -- Cereales ··----------tonnes -liase<f·on· Ql!ANr-·-------·------------ -------- ·----- ---·-----·------------

-- -·-- tiBR - HAKE-------·-------- -\vEIGHT NBR-----ttAME-------------- ------ WEIGHf- ---------- - - - - - - - - - - -
··-------1--Rix- 1-.00-.2-fla.i -----·-----1-...00-------------·-

----- PERIMCTRE----------u---·--·oased on QAUJES-- ----------··-·-----------·---·--·-·--·---- -·-----------

···- - NBR - NAKE--- -------------- - \tt!GHT- NBR--NAM£---------·-----·-·---------WEIGH"f----------------- --------
----·----1 Riz. _______ t .. OQ_ 4-In..trar.ts.._ _________________ Lil(L___
·----··r2 Mais
A11enage~e'rir-·
1 1.00 5 EncadreMent
-------r.rro-·--5 1.00
Por1page·----·----------r-~o----------
. -
·----------·-------------·-··--·-------

····-···· .•.. ···-----· -----------

-··-· ·-·--· - -·-- -··- .. ·······------ -·----- ---------·-. ··-----·--·----······-------··-· - -· - --·-· -

. _.__ ...... _____ ··--- ________ ·----------···-·-····----·-· ___ ._.Mal\~a~~~t}i~:~~i~~;aon ____________________ ----·--·----·····-------
- --· ·· · · ---··· · -·-····---- · ·- ·· - · ···· -···-······ · · ·· ···· · Currency : FCrA ----·--------------·-··-·-··-··--·--- - ·-···--··----

·- - ··· ··· · TRANSFER ACTIVITIES

.... __ ,.____ - --
' ' -. -- --- . - ·-·-· .... ---·· ... -
AArE . __________ UNIT. .......... SOURCE .... _. ____ _ ... T'IPE TRANSFER. COMMQDHY_
Ea 1J de pa11page ·· ··· ··· -···-- ;,,.J-···---·· Ric·----·--· · · SU~?~ITHOUT PoMoage·-·····----· · - -·· - · -·----- ··-
 ANNEX 5
.Appendix 3
·- --· -- _8 - -- -.. ·- --- ... _,_,_ __ --·-----·--- - .. - .

-- --- -· -----· ----.-- -·-·----- - - - - · - - - - -·--- - -- -

· · ·· ------··- ·- ------··-·---------·-- -·--· Haff - P-r-o jet. d'irr-igation --- -- - - - - --------------· ------ ---- ------··--
- - Analt;e finanoere-
··· ___ Currency ~ FCFA __
- L " - - - - - - - - - ~ - - - · - - - - - - - - - · - - - · - - - ··- ·--. --- --·· ---- -

-------DATA- ON LOANS
--------------·---------------·----------··--·- - ----- ---- ---·----·---·------ ----·--·---------------
- ______ . NAME___ UHIT _____ GRACE __ REPAY _RATE%_ IDG __ INSTALK ___ f:ASE ITnl_ _ _ SEP/SGL _ __
----Credit-de cal'lpil\lm,--------fc:fr o--- -----1---- 13-, 50 PAID - EQUAL-- Intrants---------SEPAfH · - - -

--------
· · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----------·- --------
-------------- ------- Mali-, Proje.t d.'irrigation-----·-·-------- .. - ----··-- - - -· ··--· -------------·-·-----------------------------------
------- --------- ---- An~!~;:nitr 0fffAe___ ------------- -- - --- -- -- -- ---· ------ - ----- -------- ---------- -- ---------------·

CO~POMENTS OF PLAN Riz dresse - ·- .

·= ·====·=====:========··· ·=== ·================== -- - === - ---
----- -7-11-1983--· -·----------·-
_________________ Yi>aJ' ________ L ___ _2________ 3. __ .\-2n_____________________________________ -------
-----R-r1-irr1gue--Ac:..p,--o-.u-·-rnu:r-z5u-,tr--45rr'.o----------------·-·-·----··----------·------------·-----
-- - -- - Eau de potipag, TRANS -1200, ll- -l20i1, 6--1200-. 0- -12u0,0---- -- --·--------- --·------------·----------·----·-- ·-----------
---------------------------=----------------=-=-= - --======= ----- - - --------~------~-
------·------------

- - - - -- - COMPONENTS OF PtM nz bas:::f'onds· --

-----------==--=============-=:::================·-- ----~- ----- - -··- -- ---~-- -~-----------------···------~-~------·-~
---- --- 7-11-1983. ------ ·------------------------·-··-·- ·- _ --·---- . --·------------------··---- -·----· ·---·---··--·-·····---------------
Year 1 2 3 4-20 ·
--------- ·-----------------------------·----------
---·- - - - - . --- ·- - -·--- -- - -- -------- - - - - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - - -
... - -- ---· - -

-- - ---Riz- fh1tant---AC-Pf--&.0---7S-.0------15(h0-----2~0-+--------------------------------·
- - --- Eau de pe11page.-TRANS....-c2000.,0...-,2000.,0 -:-2000..L-2UOO,O..----------------------- --------
-=~---------========================================
·-··- -------------· - - - - - - -

---- Ma11-rrojeTJ'1 r ~ 1 gat 1 on ----------------- ·---------

---- ----·------------------- Analystrflnancure-----------------------·---------
---· -------------- Currenc.y.-:-FCFA.. __________:_________
' ------------------·- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

---------------- -COKPONEttTS-Of-~LAti- !l-Mje ------------· -

--··---~· ., ·-== ...... - . - ..... -··' -· .. --=- ···- --- ·-· ·-·· __ _;___ ,_ .......=... =... ==- .. . ,..- - .. ·------------------------------
7-1H983
----- - ------------ ________----·-,--z--r·--·
·------·------------rear f-----~--- 6,..20------ ·-----------
.. _____ __________ ... ,._.,.________ ·- ..... ----------·-.
...
----···-··--
-----·---------·-·-- - - - - - - - - - -
--·-----·-
_·------- Riz dresse. .. ______ PL:-A.._______ Ln _____ LO. __ J. Q__ 1. L .... LL. __ LO . ----·-·· _ ... ·----·----- ----------·------------··-------
Ri z bas-ronds PL-A 1.0 1,0 1.0 1,0 ! ,0 1.0
·- --· ·-·Mais. (prijetT ___ Ac.:.pr·-··ir;o----· 2r;o- --· 60 :o·-:--120·. 0···150, o· 150. o-- ------·----··-·----· - -------·----·------------
·~-------·- Cred1t de·ca!'l\lacrM·- LO-A---- tt~ i----· IL 6---- O-. 5---- i}, 4 ·- 0,3 -- 0, O-- ----~------·-----·----·-----------·----·-····-----
···--- -- RlZ sans proJet.::. --AC-A .. :200.0..·.-200..0.....:-200.0-=200.0 -200,0.-200.0 ... __ . --·--------·-·--·---·-·---··-------··-·-·-------
EncadreMent CO-A -4,0 -4,0 -4.0 -4,0 -4,0 -4,0
. --·- ... -Ar1enagel'lenf-------·-rn-A"·-·-·:m; &·- 486 ,f" 177, 7 - 64", r-· 39 .8 --- 0, o- ·- ··-- -·· -·-··--·-- ·-- -- -------··---------· --·----·-
=--------=-=======================================================:
 ANIIBX 5
A_Enendix 3
- 3_

-~---·---·----
Md1T·~ Projef -d Tr·r1q-afioh 1

-------- - Analvse financiere

________________________________________ currency:__FCEA_ _____ _

------ -------- - RESULTS OF- COMr\ODH1ES CONSUKEJ> FOR Pro jet (QUAiffIT-lES~------------- ----
-------- 7-11-1983 ··· - -
--··· -- . -- - ---· -· --· --- - ---- .., -- - -.- . --- --- -· - - . --------~----------
---------------- -rear -----.----z-----1---- ,r--·· s--- --ti ---7-20--
________ lntrant!:.__LOQILECEL:-228(LO __ 4b20.L 15120,(L 30570LL 36170.0 39828.L 4137UL_______________
Travail hoM~e-iour -10900.0 10710.0 40480,0 80960.0 84500,0 84500.0 84500.0
-------- - - ============= "=============== ·============. ================================· =----- ----- ~ --- ---------
--- --- - ---------

--------·-----------------------
__________ . ___ _ _ ... _ __ ____ __ RESULTS OE_ COKHODITIES CONSUMED. FOR Pro jet (VALUES) ______________ .- _________ _
- ----- ·· =-======------=-=--==-=---------=======-----=---===========-============================:================
7-1H98J-----------------------------------------·-- -----·-------------------·---- --- - ----·----
- ------·-··-·--- ---···-··-------Yeal'--------------4-------2----3--------- 4---------- 5---------b------- 7-2G---- - -
Intrants 1,000 FCFA -2280000.0 4620000.0 15120000.0 30570000.0 36170000,G 39820000.8 4137QOOO.O
-- -- - Tr mn-- hoMe-jow-c..7560 ooo; o- 749700IJ. o--za33t,ooo-. o- 56672000. o -59150000-, 0--5915000 O; o- --591 s~ o~o-. o------
====-==----=======-=--=====-=-=====-===========~==-==-========-====-=.::.::!==-··-- -~-

. ------ _____________ }lali_.:-_Pro..je.Ld..'.irrigatLon.________________ ----------------·--·---------

- .- Anal~s! financiere
- --curr·enc(: FCFA -------------------- ----------------- --- -------------

RESUi..TS Or COi\MODITIES PRODUCED FOR Projet (QUAHTITIES) _ --------------------------------

----- ---- -=--===-------===========---=================================:=======
7-tH 983- - -- --------- ·------------------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - -
_______________Year _______ L-___ z_______ __ i__ _-4 ___ s__ _ 6.______ 7-20 ____________ _
· Ric ·ronnes--- I ao; o---r7s-; o-o37, 5 - T337s-nsrr :u- 1sn-:0 --l 97J. 0--------------------- -------------
- - Hais · tonnes--- - 0; 0----- 20. 0 --70.0--- 160-. 0- 240-. 0- 285, 0 -- 309-. 0-- -- -------------------------
--- .------------. - . . . -- - --- .. --.-- . . - . . . . -·---- ·-·· -· ·- --- - -. ------- .. --- - - ---·· · · - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-

· 1 Hali - Projet d'irrigation

·---------------------------------r,na111s,tf1nanc1ere- -----------------------------
·-----. -·---------------------- • -E:oi'rency---: FCFA---------- -------------------

-····· -------· ·------· --··-··-------- ---·--------- RESUlTS-or·cottMODITIES--PR ODUCED FOlr proJe f ( QALUEsr---------
-·- ·--· -··. ====-=====-==========================================================================================:::=-------
.. 7-1 H 98L- --·- _____________ -·--· ________ ------------------· _ ___ _______ _ ___ ______________________________ --··--------····---
. ·-· ________ Ye.i_~ __ ·--- ___________ J_______ ___ -·· 2.. __________ ____) ___ _ _4 __ ........ 5__________________ J____ ______7__-:-2_0 _______ _
-·····-· Riz · tonnes· -18000000.0--·-315QOQ~0.0--·114750000,1 -240749999.~ 297000000,1 3375~0000.0- 35550~000,0-----------
---------- Mais tonnes _____ .. 0.0 -.4600000.0 -16100000.0 .. 36800000,0 -55200000.0 .65550000.0 69001000.L----·-
-------------------==-=---------=======--=============================. =========================~======
 .ANNEX 5
Appendix: 3,

- -- ·- ---·-·--- Mili ..:. Pro-jet' d"'irffgatio·n-- · ·----------- ---·

- - ------ ------ · -- · Analyse financiere - · -· - -----· ----- -- ----- -··-· -------- -------------
________________________ __: __ . ________ Currenq-!-FCEh-----------------------------------------------
---~-----------·-- .. ---------··-----·----------·---------------·-- ------,-----
--- --'--- - - - · - - - - --RESUt TS-1JF-co~ttOIHT-IES-TRAtiSfEP.RE)- FOR-P rr.jet-1 QUAAlll ! E S } - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
---------- ----------------------------...-----------~-----.. ------- .......-.. .------------------1-------
____ -2:.ll_-:\9.eL __\'ear_____ .. ;r--· 4 --s-----ii-- ----r:.-zr-
------Jlo""age-----M
·-==-=-'-'-~-·-..=.~......... -...=~-~-·-----------......-.. _..
-t,4-_,,;wooo-o...~1035003T11-~211-tsm.o.-2.«ioooa-.11-~2nooo.0-.o.-"moui,....__ __
-----
_ __ _ __ Encadrer1enj_ _n1lliens ___ -U ___ -4.D ____ -4.0_____ -4.0 _____-4 ,8 ___ -4. O_______ -4.0 ___________
=============--==--=---=====--================================
·-----·--·--·--·-· - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

_____ .- __ _ ____ . _ __ ·--· RESULTS... OLCQl\liODlilEURANSEERREHOUujeUVALUESJ _________________________ - - - -

--------- r--rr-r9'8T------ --------------------------------------:=--=--=--=--=-==-=======-==~=--:-
- --·----- - ··Yea~--------·---!------- 3-------4--------5-------6----- ?:!··"----------------------
Po~aae n3 t.O -1950000,0 -5175000.0 -10075090,0 -12300000.0 -13850000.0 -14450000.0
Encadre11enr ·niilfons--;;-mom. o· :4rroooou-. 1r--=4110oooir. o-~mouoo ,T -.:mouoo ;r.::4ooom;rr-=4001ootr. o---------.
---------------·-------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
··- ------·· . ·····------------------------------------·-------~·--------·--------'--- ·-----·---------------

.. ___ -- --· -------· -· - Mali --Projet-d-'ir.rigatiim-____ ---------·--- ..- --- ---------------------··---------

Anal1se Hnantiere
·---·-------------------·currency_:_FCFr--·--------------------··-------··----------------------------··--·-----·----

. RESULTS O( 1i1itsTJfE!IT ACTIVITIES FOR Pr1jet (QUAlfTITIES) . . --

:: ":£ ·=. ==··==· =·====··==·====== ·================ ·============== . -
-- - 7-IH 993- --·---------------- ---------------· - - ----· ----·--·-·---- -----------------------------------
- _-----·-- ---· _____ faar_-L_--1... __ J___ -t ____ s._ _ldl) ________________ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
MieiiageMeiit -lim1011s·-391,,r-1-%·,4 -·177;,-04;,· 39,a- ---ir.o----- ---- --- ------ ------------------------·--·-------- - - - - - - -
=------·--- -==============================================-- - ------ .--- --------·- .. ------- - - - - ----------- - - - - - - - - - - - -

--- ----·--·· - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - lialL"-f'r-ojet-d~irr.ia,ition------------------------'---------

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - Anc~~~:ngn~nF~f~~------------------ ·-----------
- --------------------- -----------

.--- I~;~~~;~~~--=- =~~--===~~- __---~--~----------·-------- ------------------------------------ .

RESULTS OF INVESTMrnT ACTIVITIES FOR Projet MLL'ES)

__ ·________ ·-·--. ---·------- ____ Year _______ _..1_ ______ 2.._ _______ 3 ___ . ___L _______ 5 _____ 6 ________ L _____ {HL_---2.D_
- -··--Ailena et1ent _______ t11Tii.oii-s--3961iOOOOO-:-u48b399999:B- 177699999·. rr---·mooooir. u---399ooooo-;;--------u--;o--- --· o-;0-----0-.-0------rr!
··-------RiPlAEEttf.lff~OSTS--------t-.+-----0.&-------8..9------f,+------9--;8-------G,G---M---+~
.. _CQNUNGEllClf.S. _______ 3'lbbll.MlL.0_48UOl\.OlLL_1777MO!LIL__ f,A7mO..i_ __ mom..~n---- . ILJL_____llLl___ ··-·"-··--n.....n...
MAINTENANCE COSTS 0,1 0,0 8.0 19830000,0 H150000.0 53035000,0 5~270000,0 58260000,0 502&0000,0
- --- - RESIDUAt-vA[ur---------u------r,o----- 0;o------ -u-;o-------o-;-o--- -----o-.r---- -nr-----rr~0-723022tui-;T
. -··-------·---· ---------------~--------------
---- ~."":'-. -· -~-:- . ---- -. - ·------ - ·-· ----. -. -- -------- -- -----= -- ----- ... -. ----- -·- ' - -- .·- -- - -. ··--· . ---------··---"'"..... --- ---- --- __ -__ ------- .------ -- ---- --- ---·- - - -
 ·- . .... ·-----·-·- . - - - - · - · - - - - r - · · - - · - - · - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---··-·
________ .. __________S\11,TS. PE..!.Q~~ JR~NSAClIOh'.S__fQR -~•j~t (VAUJ[S l _ _ . ___________ ....... __ ___ _______ _
=============================================================:=====================-=-=====-==
·-·-·7-19-19ll3·--- ··----···------ --- -· - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - -
_________ - _ _ _ _ Ye~--- - . L-----2-------3. ·- ·-··· -- 4_______ .5..... ___ / d L - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
--- C-redff'de cm·a ne Tcla-·---r;r·-2772~00.-U-- 7568000 :tr-12228000,l-f08~1000ilr-·--,i-;-ir--
---·- DEBrSER'JfC~--'-----··t .t-·-3Mb22G; t-· 8580bOO.t-l 38787B0,&--1-2315885,&·---+.+- - - - -
- -- IHTERES°L.CO.'iP-OIIENl-------U--374220.0. ...1mm.o.- 1650780.0--1464885.ll----.U.....-------------
CAPITAL COttPOHENT .. I.D 2mooo.a 7560000.0 12228106.8 10851808.0 1.0
·· - ··-·ourstAND1HnoAlf -u---·-· u----,-;r· - - ··ir;r-· ----o-;-u---·...;u;,.:.o~-------
- .. -:;:;;.==-=====-::::;:;;:,::..:;.;;....-::;::=-=.:==-.

Mal i ~ P~ojet _d'irriqatien -·----- ------------·-···--···-·

Ar.; 1yse ,inanc1ere
_Last.plan processed..:;.P~tjeL------·----·------ -----· -- . ------- -------------·-- - - - - - - - - -------.- - -

--·--------TOTAL.BALANCE. OVER.LIF.£ OF. PLAN _________________________ _

=-=============================================================:=========================================================-========

Projet PeriMetre -448420000.2

_______ .:._:_:_::...:_==---· -517381219,7
-·_ -· == ·- -·-- -118271599,9
·- = ---- -- -= =· .. ---=· -· =·-··-151185115,4
- - ··-·-· ==··=-·83582220.3 = ·==-· =· =· ....233195000.4
-·· ·=· .. ··---·249260000,4
-- -----= - -- -·24727m0.4 97029200!.5
- ... =-·----- .. ·-=--·----------

Ra1e of return. =-15.l-----------·------------· -

------ - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - -------·-·-···---·-----·---- ·--· -------------------------

RESULiS OF AGGREGATES FOR PLAIHr~jet (QUANTITIES)---· ·· ·· ·-

-------- -----. .-- . ------ -. - .== .. - .. -- .- -·-··· ...== - =-=- -- ...- . ===. == ...
- -7-18-1983
..... ·Year---,---··7·-----r·--;i--·--s----6-- ,-20 - -----------------·-·--
Cereales--lonnes--100,0-----195,0---701,5-1497.5---1890,a..-21b0.1--2a75.0.------------------------··--·-·--·------
=---==:=-=-=========================================-====================
- -- -- ·-- ---·-·---------------------- ---------·--·---- ···-·--·-------------- -

N;!i - Prt)e1 ~·1;naa1ien

Aruh,e hnin~1ere
c,rr,nc y : I tFA

RESUlT~ 01 AGGv.EGAT[S F~ Pl.Alt Pr1 )tt (VALUES) •===-=-=n==·n ™"""""

....·===--==---~-::es:=·-- ........... ---~===========---s====•===....=
-==r.c=s:====-=='"""'=======
 12 ANNEX ·5
AEpendix 3

Mali - P,·ojet d'irrigation _______________ ----------------------

-. _Ancil!S!! f_ifl!OCFCiFe~~------------------------
urrency : "
------ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - - -
---------------
--- ____ ....... ______________________ ..... ______ =JESULJS_ OF }GGREGATES_FOR_PLA_H_Proj~t__(V~_LUfS)_ ____
. _______ ------====-====:o=-:=======-~__)
--- --- H&-1903----------------------- ----- -· ----· --------
--------------- Ye~---- --- -.l..-----2------- ....l. _______ 4.. ______ .s._ _____1,_ 1----8::19 2lL
------------------------
--- -· - . - - - -· -··---- --·-- ----·- ----·- ---------- ----------- - - - ··-- -·-----·--- -·- ··----- ·--- -----·~-- -·- ------------~-~~~--~~~~-=--~
-------------------- --- -------------- .. - ------- .. -------· --- - - · --- --- ---------- ---------- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

. __ ... ______________________ ... RESIJL.15. OF..AGGREGiiTES fQR.PLAfl.frojeU'lALUESL _________________________

..... ============::===============--============:::==========================:::.=-=============-====-=--=-===--------=--==---=-..
7-10-l'rllJ'_____________________________________________________________ _ ----
---·Year-------t-------2------ ---3----- - ----4--------5----------6---------'}-----B-19----20---
PERIMETRE U -m980000,0 -509509999,8 -86914999.9 141905000,1 211800000,3 292345000,3 308410000.3 30642000U 1029442001.5
-====. =-==== - -- ·== -- -·= .. - = ·====-·- =- --= -·- -- -- === ·=== --=· -= . ·=====·. ·- .. ·- .. =· ·= ·-·-·-·==- . -=== - -·- -- -- ·= . ·-==-· ·--- -•. - --_ -- ·- ·- --·· ·---- ---·- ·--

Raie of return= 19~2-- -- .. -------- ...... - · --

- - - - ------·-·-------------- -------------·----·- - - - - - - · - · - · - - - ~ - - ~ ~ - -

Cment AGGRE.G~TE being anal 1,~d is PEP.!KETRE

- -- ... PRESENT VAtUES- SiHTCHING- IJALUES- -- --- ------- .. -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

-------- - - --PE~ 8Elff---- ------- ---------- ·------------------- --------------~-----------------
ITEJ\
. ·-nEll Riz ______ -J3474995'~.8.f
Mais 1777013616.07 ___ -"175.3'
-33.0 -- ------- -------------------------------
ITEM AMe~a~e!'\~nt - --l20956099U6-- ----48,5 ---- -- - ---- --- ---------------------·
- ITEM ll\trant:.-----~2tL457067.82------Zl7,5---------------------------------------------------------------
ITEll EncadreHent -29877774,38 1963,7
-- rm- l'oiioace··-------74rm~ 09------ - 791 . r--- ----------- --------------- ---- ----------
WITHOUT- PROJECT- BALANCE- ------6.00-------- --- -- ------ - - - - - - -------- ·---------------

NET BALM.CE __ - 586707%5,18 ______________ . ________________________________ --------~-----------

 . ANNEX 6

MALI

SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L'ELEVAGE

STRATIFICATION DE LA PRODUCTION DE VIANDE - fvODELE DE TROuPEAU SAHELIEN (1)

I. INTRODUCTION - LE MODELE
Afin de tester les effets de la transformation d'un troupeau
sahelien en troupeau naisseur, un modele dynamique de troupeau a ete
construit en utilisant un programme de calcul disponible sur l'ordinateur
(modele HP9845B) du Centre d'investissement de la FAO.
Le troupeau est divise en 11 classes d'age. Les males reproducteurs
sont traites a part, leur' nombre est determine par un rapport fixe avec le
nombre de femelles, et ajuste par des achats et/ou des ventes (equivalent a
un transfert a l'interieur du troupeau si le prix est le meme que celui des
animaux d'elevage).
Les caracteristiques du troupeau sont empruntees a un rapport de
l'IER sur la 5eme region et correspondant a un troupeau transhumant de 1.000
tetes originaire de la zone seche.
On a suppose que tousles parametres techniques restaient constants
en l'absence de tout projet, sauf le taux de reforme des femelles de plus de
3 ans, qui doit augmenter afin de stabiliser la taille du troupeau lorsque
celui-ci astteint la limi_te fixee a 1. 100 unites animales, soit 25% de plus
que la taille actuelle (les unites animales sont calculees en affectant un
poids 0,3 au nombre de veaux et 0,6 aux animaux 1-2 ans).
Les caracteristiques du modele sont resurnees au Tableau 1. Les
projections sont presentees au Tableau 2, et la valeur correspondante des
ventes au Tableau 3.
II. CHANGEMENT DU MJDE D'EXPLOITATION
Tout le reste etant constant, on a change le taux d'exploitation des
males, de fa~on progressive sur une periode de six ans, avec les valeurs
suivantes (en%):
Annees
0 2 3. 4 2 6

Males 1-2 ans 12 20 30 50 70 90 100

Males 2-3 ans 8 20 30 50 70 90 100
Males 3-5 ans 20 30 50 70 90 100 100
Males 3-5 ans 30 50 70 90 100 100 100
Les effets sur la structure et la production du troupeau sont
montres par le Tableau 4.
Entre les deux situations, le nombre de vaches de plus de trois ans
passe de 34% a 44% du nombre d'animaux et de 42% a 59% du nombre d'unites
animales. Le taux d'exploitation stabilise passe de 11% a 15%.

(1) Reproduced from Ref. 46.

2 ANNEX 6

La ·valeur de la production du troupP.au ainsi transforme est calculee

dans le Tableau 5. La part du lait dans le revenu total passe de 34% a 40%.
L'effet net de ces changements (difference entre les deux
situations) est montre par les Tableaux net 7. Le revenu du troupeau est
augmente pendant les annees 1 a 4, rnais est ensuite inferieur pendant 6 ans,
avant de remonter a nouveau.
Une fois la croissance terminee et les troupeaux stabilises, la
transformation en troupeaux naisseurs prend tout son sens et le modele
montre que le revenu est augmente de 18% par rapport au systeme de gestion
anterieure.
La valeur actualisee de la production sur 20 ans n'augmente que de 8
a 9% (selon le taux d'actualisation), ce qui, vu les variations de revenu,
n'est pas tres attrayant.
Si la transformation en troupeau naisseur est plus rapide (3 ans au
lieu de 6), les resultats sont pires:
- Baisse du revenu des annees 1 a 10.
- Augmentation de la valeur actualisee de la production (a 12%) de
7,3%. Si la transformation en troupeau naisseur est plus lente (10
au lieu de 6), la baisse de revenu est beaucoup moins marquee et
dure 5 ans (des annees 5 a 9), mais l'augmentation de production
(valeur actualisee) n'est toujours que de 9%, comme le montrent les
Tableaux 8 a 11.

III. CHANGEMENT DU PRIX DES JEUNES MALES

On a combine au changement de mode d'exploitation expose ci-dessus
un changement de prix des males de 1 a 2 ans, le faisant passer de 30~000
FM/tete a 32.000 en annee 2, 35,000 en annee 3, 38.000 en annee 4 et 40.000
a partir de l'annee 5, soit une augmentation d'un tiers.
Dans l'hypothese de base (changement des taux de reforme en six
ans), le changement parallele de prix des jeunes males limite la baisse de
revenu aux annees 5 a 9, et fait passer l'augmentation de revenu sur 20 ans
a 14% (taux d'actualisation de 12% ou de 20%).
La combinaison d'un changement de taux de reforme etale sur 10 ans
avec une augmentation du prix des jeunes males donne la projection de revenu
montree par le Tableau 12 qui fait presque totalement disparattre la baisse
transitoire de revenu due a la transformation du troupeau (elle persiste en
annee 6), comme le montre le Tableau 13.
L;~ugmentation de revenu sur 20 ans est dans ce cas de 13 a 14%. Et
si l'on compare le revenu, une fois la croissance achevee et les troupeaux
en equilibre, le troupeau naisseur donne un revenu augmente de 27% par
rapport au systeme de gestion anterieure.
 MALI

SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L'ELEVACE

Hodele_cl~ Troupeau SaMlj~!)

Cn rn c·l C!r i. o t iquo u. ,D_r6 f:~nt co

Composition en Tau.x de reforme Morta.lite Prix de vente

Arr,,e
__£...nnee 7,ero· (1,) (%) (milliera de 0~/tate)

Males ,EP-mollen

86
J.'.5:lea _Ecmelles Males F,,~e 11 ~a Males
--
Femeil.!a

0-1 74 30 21 12 15
1-2 55 75 12 3 13 13 30 35
2-3 43 67 8 1 ) 45 50
3-4 37 ) 20 ) ) 55 )
4-5 29 ) 442 20 ) 10 ) 3 65 ) 55
>5 70 ) 30 ) ) 75 )
Males reproducteurs 22 10 ) 75

Taux de feconclit5: 59 %
Ace du. premier veln.te : > 3 ans
Aee de ln reforme clos femelles excedentairea >3 ans
%des femelles exploiteea pour le lait s 50
Rapport ma.lea ropr<itlucteu.ra/femollea : 5%
Capo.cite de cho..reo m.a:dmW1 : 1 100 U.A.
Veni.e de la.it : 20 000 l•'M/femelle exploitee/an
11f,L \ - SITIJATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L'ELEVAGE TnOUl'CAU 1~1ns~r.un

IUD D[V£llll'l\(MI COl\i10~l1JON YITIIOUT PiOJECI rnuATIOH

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SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L 'ELEVAGE

VALLUR DE LA Pllnl>UCT Jl){I

[CCJN0r1!C/FINANCIAL. liil,,L.YSl:J' - ~JITIIOUT l'!IOJl:.CT SITUATION

I.I 2.1 J .I 5.1 7.1 0.1 9•• 11,Q U.I 12.1 13.1 IU 15.8 IU 17 •• IJ.I :u

SJ-LES or A~. UlTI\OUT PROJ[Cl SllUAIIOH

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 SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 1 1ELEVAGE

Tl~ CJ Ur [All NA [ SG[IJR 2

(Chllilgemont trur 6 llilB)
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PUP(JI Of BW. r.~U: Y!lll PaOJECT SITUATIOII

7 l1 12 14 IS 17 10 19 21
 MALI
SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L 'ELEVAGE

VAL.Cl.JI; DC L,:", Pr; ()1)1.JCT Io II

(chanrromont imr .eix an.e)
f r:litUIM/C/Fitl,,//C[;d MJ,';J.'([,1:3 - ~JlTfl rnD.JECT snuATlDM

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OTHH !M:OX(S YIHI HOIECT S!TUATION

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TO lt,L mu 4~02. l ms.1 4512.4 470? .l> 50!8.4 52S0.7 S4B3.4 570.1 6015.3 b279,2 bSlb .1 mo .1 bSOU 6510 .I Lm.1 6'.il!.1 mu ~~Ii.I t.'..\U 1(,1\ .I

r11mnUl!Al V/{U( or H(i'.O Al YcAi 21.1 : 12217 - Wllll fROl[CT S!TUATIOK

 11ALI
SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE . 3U .GE

VAL[IJl'l ll[ LA rrrnDUCTIOl'J (ohangement lll'Ur 6 an II )

I l:!ltll In JC/FI tlt\tlC I (,L (\Uni ·ma; Incr(a1,.ir11,.11

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~·1u J TP nn. u u u u u -ma., -m~.7 -1~71.7 ·IJH.4 ·983.6 -m.a 11~2.4 1&45,1 mu 1657.7 1607.7 1m.1 1617.7 1m.1 lbl7. 7 1617 .,
~mDlf!C ~f.~E I.I u u I.I u u 13.S 28.1 38.3 40.6 58.9 6U 68.7 6U 6U 66.9 66.9 6&.? (~. 9 66.V U.9
JO;/,L 1.1 1/Jl., wa,.~ 3191.7 2077.7 -1202.e -m4.S -~81.8.1 ·2JOJ,l ·2230 .s -ms.a B3.S 719.8 7J3.I b?I .~ m.2 m.J m.:i rn.1 rn.J m.~

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OTHER 1ttro1cs I.I

!W(P[l\~WIAI.. \IA!.U£ Of :cno

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I.I I. I

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cu~;:~~/[1E.t~L:1::-1rs FUlvJ - Incr'e1·1entnl (changoment our 6 ans) Tabie,m 1
yr::,:,[{~; TOTAL COSTS Gr< OS~1 H[V, · DM.?)NCI::

(J 0 0 0
1 (l i734 17~VI
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3 0 30 172 J0 1?2
4 0 ;:!100 ~:!100
s 0 -- 120] ..... 1_21n
6 0 --:.::4 {) lj .--:.=!404
7 0 ·-·,~100 "'i! 1 ll Q
0 0 ···:\. S:12 ··Ei~52
9 0 ·-or;s ... 9r/~'i
10 0 ... 3;_:~7 -·327
u 0 i99S i<i'9S
l? 0 2610 :.:2610
13 0 2S70 ~2S7U
J •l 0 ~> r:·"• ':)
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lS () 24'7? ;;24 7 11
i{:, [) ~:24 79 ;:_( 'I '7 s>
j .,
, I 0 2479 ;247<;i
1.U 0 ;~. 4 '7 r; 2.47?
19 0 247 17 2•17rJ
;~ () 0 -2°93. -~:93

tlLT Pl~ESENT VAL.U[~; FOR AN OPPORTUNITY COST !JF cr~rITP1l. or 12. () :%

UlTI-IOUT PROJECT GITUATION <J:.:~701.6 •

~JI TH P r,OJECT SITUATION• ·1 100372.1:]
INCHE11anAL \.'nLu:: 7S9i,2
PEl~CDHAG[ CHf\NGE t 8, 2 ;~ CJlJ[I< loHHIDUT PROJECT !3ITU,;TION

i·ll:.T l'RE!:iENr Vi'.\LU[S FOR 11N Or'PurnutnTY corn OF crir.i·nriL (JF 20, lJ ;.

Ul1IIOUT \>rUJ[C:T ~;ITUATIC)N r;7 61.l 11 ·. u

\..11111 \ll·'DJLCT ~iJ:T\.Jt1TIOti 1 6 ;:.~ (i' ? •1 . ?
I /.J1 :1,1· h:· 1111~,I 1-1:.,1 111 7 . : 1:;3:~0.1
 Alf/'rt:XE 6
Tableau 8

!-lALI

SITUATION ET PERSPECTI\~S DE L'ELEVAGE

Modele de trouoeau sahelien

Changement de tawc de reforrne des cales sur dix ans

Clnsrc:e d I a.;e
- -
A..>mee

0 1 s. l .4. 5. 6 1 8 10

0-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1-2 12. 15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2-3 8- 15· 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 \
100 :
100 100

4-5 20 . 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 100 100

>5 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 100 100 100

Male repro-
ducteur 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
 i:>.l.!.Uft.LLUJ.'1· .I:..!. !".tl.\.:>!'J:.lTl Vt.::i .l)t. L 't:LcVAGE

TROLIP[AU tlAISSCUH
..,
"-

( Cha.np;ement 11'\!l' 10 _a.nn)

IHC r(i'(llf~(~l COtt'.O:lTlOII UITII PROJECT S!TUATIOM

T'.~P
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H ri rcr,1u: ~" I)3 13\ !JJ Hl IH I',,r lb2 167 177 105 Hi 193 m
192 192
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I 2 Ti f[(N[ 7'i oO 105 116 m 112 ·117 122 !~a m 141 m
2-3 TR l',.;L[ 43 4C: JC Vi 57 49
14(, !SJ l'jJ 1,1 ISi 151 m 151 ISi
2-3 'iR f(r;.L[ i7 !,J
43 36 2U 20 11 -o -I -0 -I -I -I --1 -0 -I
57 0? SQ 07 H 9? m 118 113 110 123 m 129 128 1;:a 128 1.':J 1:a 121:
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M TR K,iLC: 21 27 26 21 H 17 II s ~
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 MALI
SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L 'ELEVAGE

Vf\LEU~ D~ LA F'IWDUCTION (oh&.n5em11nt 111\lr 10 an11)

E:CUtHI/IIC'/F lN/lt/l J r,L flt J,1 t_ y ::;r s Incret1.i.n t<1l

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It'OEX(!llfil Villi( or IUD Ar TLA~ 2U I ··2772 - lncrtRtn tal

 HALI
SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L 'ELEVAGE

ANNEXE 6
Tableau 11

COSTS/8ENEFITS FLOW - Increr;enlal ( changei:ient BUr 10 ans)

YEt.RS TOTAL COSTS GROSS REV. [IALANCE

0 0 0 0
1 0 1065 1065
2 a- 167>' 167S'
3 0 2122 21.22
4 0 21>'2 2192
s 0 -284 -284
6 0 -67S -875
7 0 -571 -S91
8 0 -43<;' -439
9 0 -137 -1.37
.10 0 226 226
11 () 1:?7';, 1995
12 0 2610 2610
13 0 2'578 2S78
14 0 2S32 2532
15 0 2479 247Y
16 0 2477 2479
17' 0 2A79 2479
18 0 2479 2479
19 0 247? 2479
20 0 -273 -293

NET PRESENT VALUCS FOR AN OPPORTUNITY COST OF CAPITAL or 12.0 %

~ITHOUT PROJECT SITUATION 92781. 6

WITH PROJECT SITUATION 1010?8,S
IHCREHCHTAL VALUE : 8316. 9
PERCENTAGE CHANGE: 9.0 Z OVER WITHOUT PROJECT SITUATIOM

NET rRESENT VALU[S FOR A~ O?PORTU~ITY COST or CAPITAL OF 20.0 %

WITHOUT PROJECT SITUATION S7644.6

WITH PROJECi SITUATION 62887.7
INCREM~NIAL VALUE 5242.9
PERCENTAGE CHANGE: 9. 1 'Z C\}ER \Hn:our P[WJ[CT SITU~TI'.}1-!
 HALI
SITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L 'ELEVAGE

VAL[UR DC L.i\ PIHJPUCTIO"'

( ohangement l!Ur 10 MIi et augmenh:t.ion de prix)
L:CUIWM IC/FI IJ(IIJC [ AL AMALYGlG In er,! Mt!O 1111

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S>US OF AX. - II\Crta111al

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TOTAL

0THCR l HCOKES I.I

INCREh[HlAf. VALL'£
I.I
I.I

[f
I.I
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I.I
I.I
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b9.3
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1091.0
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l?IU

1011.i
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12~? .:J

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 ~'.\LI
3ITUATION ET PERSPECTIVES DE L'ELEVAG~

Nnir~A1~ 6
'l'u\11 gnu. D
CllS I ~:/lll: NlS I rs ru1w - lllCl'<i<Ml!.fl till
Ghnnr,bmont aur 10 am!. et aucmen"tl\t·iOn de prix
YEAl!S TOT,'.\L COSTS GflDSS ncv. 11r\Ll'\NCt

u D 0 0
0 10 6':i 106S
...., 0 :\.712 :l712
~ 0 224'1 22.1\.1\
•) 0 2"1S1 2451
s 0 1 •1 l, 146
t, 0 ···331 -·'J.31
'l II (J 'J 69
0 0 3r:;n 3SO
s· 0 7')1 7'71
10 0 . nos 1.3DS
u 3123 31~~:J
12 C 37'7LI 37'70
13 0 37<:i':; 37SS
14 0 36'7') 36'/9
iS 0 3647 3647
l& 0 36'17 3647
17 ll 36"17 J6-17
10 0 36•17 36•\7
1 •; 0 :lf., 4 ·; :H,'17
~u 0 2:::!17 2217

NL::T 1·r~C!.iElfl VALU[S FOR AN OPl'ORTUtHTY COST or CAl'IH\L or, 12. 0 7.

WlTHOUf PROJECT SITUATION , 92701.6

\JITH PROJECT SITUATION 1 i0S'1S2.2
IHCREMCNTnL VnLUE ! 12b70.6
PERC[NTAGE CHANGC 1 13. 7 7. OVER \JlTIIDUT PROJCCT SITUATION

lll~T r1<t::s1rnr l.'ALUCS FOR AN OPPORTUNITY cpsr or CM'ITAL or 211. 0 7.

WITHOUT PROJECT SITUATION 1 576411.1:1

WlTH PROJECT SITUATION I bSoo,:;.:s
J NCRC:l\~NTAL VALUE 1 7360, S
PCUCENTAGE CHANGC 1 1i.L O X .OVEll ~n Tl IUUT PRCIJ'CC r SITUATIClt~
 ANNEX 7

SELECTED BrBLIOGR.APHY

I. Project Analysis Methodology

(al Reference Publications

1. LITTLE I.M.D. and MIRRLEES J.A., Project Appraisal and Planning for
Developing Countries; Hainemann Educational Book Limited, London, 1974.

2. BRIDIER M. et MICHAILOF S. - Guide pratique d'analyse de projets -

Economica, Paris, 1980.

3. PRICE GITTINGER J. - Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects - The

Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1972.

4. BROWN M.L. Farm budgets - From Farm Income Analysis to Agricultural

Project Analysis - World Bank staff occasional paper no. 29 - The
Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1979.

5. SQUIRE L. and YAN DER TAK G. - Economic Analysis of Projects - A World

Bank Research Publication - The Johns Hopkins University Press,
Baltimore, 1975.

6. Guide to the Economic Evaluation of Irrigation Projects by H. BERGMANN

and J.M. BOUSSARD - OECD - Paris 1976.

7. UNIDO: Guidelines for Project Evaluation; Project Formulation and

Evaluation Series no. 2; United Nations, New York, 1972.

8. Charles PROU and Marc CHERVEL, Etablissement des programmes en ~conomie

sous-developpee, tome 3, · 1 · etude des grappes de projets, Paris, Dunod,
19 7 0.

(Each of these publications contains a bibliography).

(b) FAO Investment C1~ntre Guiclelines (Ff..0/\forld Bank (_ooQ_erative

Proqramme) ( 1)

9. Guidelines for the Preparation of Agricultural Investment Projects,

FAO/WB CP, August 1977 (E + F + S). Revised August 1982.

10. Guideline for the Preparation of Feasibility Studies, Ruril Development

Projects, FAO/WB CP, March 1975 (E + S).

11. Guidelines for the Preparation of Feasibility Studies, Agricultural

Credit Projects, FAO/WB CP, October 1972 (E).

12. Guidelines for the Preparation of Feasibility Studies, Livestock

Proj1~cts, FAO/WB CP, March 1971 (E i· F ~ S).

( 1) E in English - F = in French - S = in Spanish.

2 ANNEX 7

13. Guideline for the Preparation of Feasibility Studies, for Irrigation

an cl [) r a.in age Project s , FA On•rn CP , De C(! rn b c r 19 7 0 ( E + r + S ) .

14. Outlines for Projects to bP Pres~ntod for Financing FAO/WB CP,

'. ', ,, ~; t e :r, !:, E' r 1 ~1 C7 ( E i F + S ) .

15. The Project Cycle, A.M. EID, Near-East Workshop on Agricultural

Investment Projects, January/February 1978 (E + F +Arabic).

16. Guidelines for Basic Data Collection and Analysis for the Preparation of
Integrated Rural Development Projects, FAO/WB CP, October 1982 (E + F
+ s) .

(c) Other FAO and World Bank Publications

17. Directives generales applicables i l'analyse des projets de production

agricole - Etudes sur la planification agricole No. 14 - FAO - 1972.

10. Projets d'investissement agricole: textes pour le Proche-Orient (Choix

de documents presentes au stage sur les projets d'investissement agri-
cole i !'intention de la region du Proche-Orient, Rome, 9 janvier-10
fevrier 1978) - Etudes sur la planification agricole No. 20 - FAO -
1980.

19. VIII Curse de planificaci~n del desarrollo agricola - Selecci~n de

conferencia s - I RYDA, Madrid, y FAO, Roma, 19 7 6.

20. Investment Criteria in Economic Analysis of Projects - Central Projects

Note 2.01 - World Bank, Oct. 1978.

21. Social Cost-Benefit Analysis: A Guide for Country and Project Economist,
to the derivatior1 and application of economic and social accounting
prices, by Colin Bruce - WB Staff Working Paper no. 239, August 1976.

22. The "Effects Method" of Project Evaluation - WB Staff Working Paper

no. 231 - March 1976 - (analyse critique de la methode des effets,
proposant de modifier la methode en utilisant certains pr.ix de
reference).

23. REUTLINGER S., Techniques for Project Appraisal under Uncertainty. World
Bank Staff Occasional Papers no. 10. Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1970.

24. Risk and Sensitivity Analysis in the Economic Analysis of Projects -

Central projects note 2.02 ~ World Bank - Oct 1978.

25. POULIQUEN L. Y., Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal. ~Jorld B,rnk Staff
Occasional Papers No. 11, Washington. D.C., World Bank, 1970.

II. Analysis and Programming

( a ) Ge n e r a .1 P u t.1_,,J--'.i,__,c""'.a,,_t-"-"-i""'o-'-'n""s'--_C"'-.c"-1n""1.1a:P..s:U...stc.::e'-'-r__,l""a,,_r'-!.1.:.1.CJ""u,, a""'g'-"e'--"-s

26. WIRTH, N. Algorithms + Data Structures = Programs - Prentice Hall, 1976.

27. KNUTH, D. E. The Art of Computer Programming (3 vol.), Reading Addison -

Wasley Publishing Company, 1968.

20. GABRINI, P. - Les structures de donnees et leurs representations,

Ca~t~n Mori~. tqR?
 ANNEX 7 3

2 '.l RTH , tL ( t r a d u c t ion O. LECAR ME ) - I n t rod u ct ion

. ~JI a l a pro g r a mm a ti on
syst~matique - Masson, 1977.

JO. Structured System Programming - J. WELSH and M. McKEAG - Prentice-Hall

International - 1980.

31. WIRTH, N. and JEt~srn, K.: Pascal, User Manual ancl Report - Springer
Verlage, 1978.

32. WIRTH, N. et JENSEN, K.: Pascal, Manuel de l'utilisateur. Tr~duit de

l'anglais par P. KRUCHTEN et J.-A. HERNANDEZ - Eyrolles, 1981.

3 3 . LI GNE LET , P . _. Pa s cal - T1 : Manuel de b a s e - T2 : Techniques de

programmation et concepts avancis - MASSON, 1980.

34. FINDLAY, W. ancl WATT, D.A.: Pascal, An Introduction to Methodical

Programrning - rITMAN, 1981.

35. HEWLETT-PACKARD - SYSTEM 45 DESKTOP COMPUTER=

- Operating and programming
- Mass storage techniques.
(These manuals contain the description of the BASIC language used
for s orne of the prog r arnme s mentioned) .

36. PLOVIN M. - Programmer en BASIC - P.S.I. Paris, 1980.

37. BOISGONTIER J. - Le BASIC et ses fichiers - M~thodes pratiques - P.S.I.

Paris, 1980.

lb) Manuals of the Programmes Mentioned

38. CB Display (Users Guide to CB Display) - Economic and Policy Di~ision,

Agriculture and Rural Development Department, the World Bank, April 4,
1979. - Programme con[u par G. Temple - Prograrnrnation par E. RAMISCAL,
T. KLEIN, P. GUTTERMAN.

39. Farm Model Processor (FARMOD) - External Characteristics - by V.

SAHASRA8UDME and G. TEMPLE - The World Bank, October 30, 1981.

40. The Project Cost Table System (COSTAB) - Users Guide (draft) - Compass
Users Guide Series, World Bank, June 1982.

41. COMPASS PROCEDURES and EDITOR - Users Guide - Compass Processor Series -
World Bank, Nov. 1981.

42. Notice d'emploi du programme MADS - OCDE - Service de la coop~ration

technique, Direction de l' agriculture, Paris, 17 Mai 1979.

43. MADS II - Manual - FAO Investment Center - October 1980.

4 4 . Da ta An a 1 y s i s a nd S i mu la t ion Pr o g r a mm e ( DAS I ) - Us e r ' s Ma n 1..1 a l , by

C. Cappi - FAQ Development Policy Studies and Training Service,
April 1982.
4 ANNEX 7

III. Reports on Projects mentioned

45. MALI - Projet de d~veloppement de la zone lacustre.

- Rapport de reconnaissance - FAQ CP - Mars 1980.

- Am~nagement de mares (Document de travail) - FAQ CP - Juin 1980.

46. MALI - Situation et perspectives de l'elevage - Banque mondiale -

Mission regionale en Afrique de l'Ouest, Abidjan, avril 1980.

47. NEPAL - Community Forestry Development Project - Preparation Report -

FAQ CP - April 1979.

48. PARAGUAY - Agricultural Credit Project - Preparation Report FAO CP -

October 1982.

49. MAROC - Projet de developpement de la petite et moyenne hydraulique

agricole - Rapport de preparation (2 volumes) FAQ CP - Mai 1982.

50. SENEGAL - Projet de developpement de l'elevage au Senegal

oriental et en Haute Casamance - FAQ CP - Aout 1982.

51. MALI - Fonds de deve.loppement associatif dans la region de Segou

Preparation pour le FIDA - VILLARET/DE WALCK/SON - FAQ ISP -
21 aout 1981.