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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776


www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

A model for representing the Italian energy system:


The NEEDS-TIMES experience
C. Cosmi a,b,*, S. Di Leo c,d, S. Loperte a, M. Macchiato b,c,
F. Pietrapertosa a,b, M. Salvia a,b, V. Cuomo a
a
National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, C.da S. Loja, I-85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy
b
Federico II University, Department of Physical Sciences, Via Cintia, I-80126 Naples, Italy
c
National Research Council, National Institute for the Physics of Matter, Via Cintia, I-80126 Naples, Italy
d
University of Basilicata, Department of Environmental Engineering and Physics, C.da Macchia Romana, I-85100 Potenza, Italy
Received 19 November 2007; accepted 7 January 2008

Abstract
Sustainability of energy systems has a strategic role in the current energy-environmental policies as it involves key issues such as security
of energy supply, mitigation of environmental impact (with special regard to air quality improvement) and energy affordability. In this
framework modelling activities are more than ever a strategic issue in order to manage the large complexity of energy systems as well as to
support the decision-making process at different stages and spatial scales (regional, national, Pan-European, etc.). The aim of this article
is to present a new model for the Italian energy system implemented with a common effort in the framework of an integrated project under the
Sixth Framework Programme. In particular, the main features of the common methodology are briefly recalled and the modelling structure, the
main data and assumptions, sector by sector, are presented. Moreover the main results obtained for the baseline (BAU) scenario are fully
described.
# 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Decision-making tools; Energy system analysis; Modelling of energy systems; NEEDS-TIMES models

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 764
2. Methodological approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 764
2.1. The models generator and the user interfaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 765
2.2. The reference energy system (RES) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 765
2.3. The data files . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 766
3. The Italy NEEDS-TIMES model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 767
3.1. Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 767
3.1.1. Fossil fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 767
3.1.2. Electricity and heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 768
3.1.3. Renewable fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 768
3.2. Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 768
3.2.1. Residential, commercial and agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 769
3.2.2. Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 769
3.2.3. Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770
3.3. Carbon dioxide emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770
4. Main national energy and environmental policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 0971 427 280; fax: +39 0971 427 271.
E-mail address: cosmi@imaa.cnr.it (C. Cosmi).

1364-0321/$ – see front matter # 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.rser.2008.01.002
764 C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776

5. BAU scenario assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 772


6. Main results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 773
6.1. Primary energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 773
6.2. Electricity and heat generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 773
6.3. Final energy demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 774
6.4. Carbon dioxide emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 775
7. Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 775
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 775
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 775

1. Introduction decision-making on energy-environmental issues at local,


national and supra-national level can be found in scientific
Sustainability of energy systems has become in recent years literature (e.g. [3–5]).
a major strategic issue as well as its competitiveness and This paper is aimed to provide further inputs in energy system
security. This is outlined by several EU and national directives analysis, bringing the main features and some operating results of
and by the Green Paper ‘‘Towards a European strategy for the an experience conducted in the integrated project NEEDS ‘‘New
security of energy supply’’ [1]. This is reflected in the Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability’’, that is
international research context, where a key thematic area of the being carried out under the ‘‘Sustainable Energy Systems’’
Sixth Framework Programme EU (FP6) and of the incoming thematic area of the Sixth Framework Programme. The ultimate
new programme are devoted to these objectives. objective of the project is to evaluate the full costs and benefits
The challenge that governments are trying to meet is the (direct and external) of energy policies and of future energy
reduction of the increasing impacts of energy production and systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the
use (the energy sector is currently responsible for 80% of all EU enlarged EU as a whole. The case study here discussed form part
greenhouse gas emissions and contribute heavily to the overall of the activities of the research stream ‘‘Modelling Pan European
emissions of local air pollutants) guaranteeing, at the same energy scenarios’’ aimed to generate models of 29 EU countries
time, the fulfilment of an increasing and more differentiated that are subsequently integrated into a Pan-European modelling
market demand. Quoting the Seventh Framework Programme platform using a multi-region approach. This platform can hold
FP7 [2], one of the main objectives of energy research is to LCA and externalities data and it is used to analyse a baseline and
reduce the dependence of imported fuels, to use a diverse mix of a set of policy scenarios aimed to assess key energy and
energy sources, in particular renewables, energy carriers and environment issues at Pan European scale over the time horizon
non-polluting sources, as well as to promote the creation and 2000–2050.
establishment of the technologies necessary to carry out these The following paragraphs are devoted to present the main
changes. features of the methodology adopted for this study, to describe
Governments face tough job making operating these the energy system model implemented for Italy and to discuss
objectives because of the intrinsic complexity of energy the main results obtained so far for the baseline scenarios at
systems. Actions that need to be implemented involve in fact national scale.
not only changes on the physical structure of the energy sector More details on tools, assumptions and achievements can be
(e.g. increasing efficiency of energy production and investing in found into to the official project documentation.
renewable sources, increasing the transport and storage
capacity of infrastructures) but also on the demand side, 2. Methodological approach
improving consumers consciousness and bringing them to
energy conservation and demand reduction. The country models as well as the Pan-European model are
The process of planning a structured national energy strategy being developed using the modelling platform TIMES (the
can be valuably supported by comprehensive long-term MARKAL – EFOM TIMES System), made available by the
modelling tools, based on a detailed (bottom-up) representation Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP
of the energy system and capable of investigate, from a technical, [6]), an Implementing Agreement of the International Energy
economic and environmental point of view, short-term solutions Agency (IEA), and at now used to implement national and
and long-term strategies, taking into account different standards global models worldwide.
of energy devices and technologies development as well as end- The general modelling platform was further specialised to
use demands evolution. These models provide answers in terms meet the specific objectives and technical requests of the
of level of activities and fuel mix, costs and emissions, suggesting NEEDS project, and it is actually constituted by the following
a combination of actions on the demand and supply side aimed to components:
satisfy, at the lowest cost for the energy system, the superimposed
constraints related to the different policies and price mechanisms  the model generator (TIMES), consisting of the source code
analysed. Several examples on the use of models in supporting written in the GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System)
C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776 765

computer programming language. It processes the data files, TIMES computes a partial equilibrium on energy markets.
generates the matrix that specifies the mathematical This means that the model computes both the flows of energy
programming problem, solves it, and post-processes the forms and materials as well as their prices, in such a way that, at
optimization results, the prices computed by the model, the suppliers of energy
 a ‘‘shell’’, i.e. an user interface named the Versatile Data produce exactly the amounts that the consumes are willing to
Analyst (VEDA), that allows creating, managing the data buy [10].
input and running the model generator (Front End, FE [7]), The TIMES energy economy is made up of producers and
and analysing results (Back End, BE [8]), consumers of commodities such as energy carriers, materials,
 a set of data files that fully describes the energy system energy services, and emissions. TIMES, like most equilibrium
(technologies, commodities, resources and demands for models, assumes competitive markets for all commodities. In
energy services). this way, the result is a supply-demand equilibrium that
maximizes the net total surplus (i.e. the sum of ‘producers’ and
2.1. The models generator and the user interfaces ‘consumers’ surpluses). Moreover it is run in a dynamic
manner, that is to say that the model has a perfect foresight: all
The core of the modelling framework is the TIMES investment decisions are made in each period with full
economic partial equilibrium models generator. It is demand knowledge of future investments [10].
driven and technology oriented, allowing to represent all the Another important feature of TIMES [11] is the multi-region
aspects related to energy system including emissions, materials approach, that allows to analyse simultaneously several energy
and environmental damage. Its considerable flexibility makes it systems (in the Pan-European model, 29 country models)
a powerful tool for analysing energy systems on different linked by energy, material and emissions exchanges. This
spatial and time scales and for assessing the feasibility of approach is very useful for analysing, for example, emission
energy-environmental policies under different constraints. It permits tradings and other issues related energy and emissions
provides a technology-rich basis for estimating energy policies.
dynamics over a long-term, multi-period time horizon, A model interface is thus necessary to allow the users to
allowing for a flexible division of the time horizon through create, browse, and modify the input data, as well as and to
an arbitrary (unlimited) number of time-periods with varying explore and process the model’s results. The VEDA interfaces
length. (VErsatile Data Analyst), used to manage the NEEDS-TIMES
The mathematical structure of TIMES is based on linear model, consist of a front-end component (known as VEDA-
programming (LP). This means that as underlying hypothesis FE), for the analysis and maintenance of the input data, and a
the objective function and constraints can be represented by back-end component (known as VEDA-BE) for the analysis of
linear equations. results through the construction of analyst tables and graphs.
From a mathematical point of view, the objective function The front-end component must be closely matched to each
(EQ_OBJ,) of the primal problem, built up with a bottom-up specific model, whereas the back-end component applies to a
approach from demand categories and technological options, variety of models.
represents the total discounted cost of the energy system, i.e. the More and detailed information on these interfaces can be
sum of the discounted annualised costs minus the annualised found in [7,8].
revenues of an energy system, as specified in the following
equation [9]: 2.2. The reference energy system (RES)
8
>
> þCosts for sunk material
>
> þInvestment costs Each TIMES-based model is completely defined by the
>
> input provided by the users (energy vectors, materials,
>
> þFixed costs
>
>
>
> technology availability, commodities demand, techno-eco-
>
> þVariable costs
< nomic parameters) and characterizing the reference energy
þTaxes
EQ OBJ ¼ (1) system, that schematises all the energy flows from primary
>
> þSurveillance costs
>
> sources to final uses in different sectors, through energy
>
> þDecommissioning costs
>
> conversion technologies (large and small scale plants) and
>
> Subsidies
>
> different distribution options (electricity grids, district heat
>
> Recuperation of sunk material
: networks).
Salvage value
The definition of a common RES (Fig. 1 [12]) for the
All the costs that are included in the objective function are NEEDS-TIMES models (country models and Pan-EU model)
discounted to the base-year using a general discount rate was the first task of the modelling set up. The ‘‘shape’’ of the
specified by the user (a 4% agreed upon value was utilised RES was determined identifying, first of all, the main demand
for all the countries modelled in the NEEDS project). It is sectors (Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, Industry,
worthwhile to note that a technology-specific discount rate Transportation, Electricity/Heat production, and Energy Sup-
could also be considered in TIMES, feature that is important ply) and the list of commodities (demand categories, energy
when the allowance of technologies is very different from a carriers, emissions, and materials) to be modelled, as described
period to another. in more details in [13].
766 C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776

Fig. 1. A scheme of RES representation (source: [12]).

As concerns the Supply, each primary resource (crude oil, process heat, machine drive, electrochemical, others pro-
natural gas, hard coal, lignite) is modelled by a supply curve cesses). In order to promote the integration with LCA and
with several cost steps. There are three categories of sources: ExternE methodologies, different material demands of the
located reserves (or producing pools), reserves growth (or industrial sector (as for example steel or limestone) were
enhanced recovery), and new discovery. In addition, five types modelled separately.
of biomass are modelled: wood products, biogas, municipal Transport includes road and rail for passengers and freight,
waste, industrial waste-sludge, and bio fuels. navigation and aviation. In road transport, there are five demand
Electricity and heat production regroups public power categories for passenger travel (cars: short distance, long
plants, auto production of electricity and CHP. In particular, distance, buses: urban, intercity, two- and three-wheelers/off
three types of electricity (high voltage, medium voltage, and road), and trucking. In rail transport, there are three demand
low voltage) and two separated (not connected) grids for long categories (passengers: light trains (metros), heavy trains and
distance (high temperature) and short distance (low tempera- rail freight). The aviation and navigation sectors are modelled
ture) heat are distinguished. using a single generic technology each and a single generic
The RES structure adopted for Residential is based on 11 demand each that reproduces the energy consumption.
main end-uses (space heating, space cooling, water heating Together with the RES shape, the units of measure and the
cooking, lighting, refrigeration, cloth washing, cloth drying, main general data sources (in particular the Eurostat energy
dish washing, other electric, other energy), with the first three data [14]) to be used for calibration were individuated in order
differentiated by building categories (single house: rural, urban, to guarantee a full ‘‘transparency’’ of all the models.
multi-apartment). Similarly to residential, for the Commercial A common basic list of technologies (base-year technolo-
sector nine end-uses are taken into account: space heating, gies) was also identified, to be specialized in order to meet the
space cooling, water heating, cooking, refrigeration, lighting, specific features of each country energy system.
public lighting, other electric, other energy uses, with the first
three being differentiated by building categories (small/large). 2.3. The data files
Agriculture is modelled with a simplified approach as a single
generic technology with a mix of fuels as input and an Once the structure of the country models was defined, the
aggregated useful energy demand as output. next step regarded the characterization of single energy systems
Industry modelling is based on a distinction between energy by each team of experts. The main data files used to lay down
intensive industries, for which a detailed process-oriented RES the basic structure of national energy systems and to allow the
was adopted and other industries, modelled with a standard calibration of energy flows at the base-year are five Excel
structure consisting in a mix of five main energy uses (steam, spreadsheets per each country (the so-called ‘‘templates’’),
C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776 767

which have direct links to primary data sources and are Italy is a highly developed country with the sixth largest
periodically updated, sector by sector (RCA: residential/ economy in the world in 2004, its economic strength being in
commercial/agriculture; IND: industry; TRA: transport; the processing and manufacturing of goods, primarily in small
ELC: electricity/heat production; and SUP: energy supply). and medium-sized family-owned firms.
The main information collected were: base-year energy flows, The complexity and variability of the Italy energy system
existing technology stocks with their technical/environmental required a careful modelling activity, in order to take into
characteristics and transmission efficiency; so that consistent account its main features and to overcome the problems related
base-year demands for energy services are computed. to a general lack of updated data necessary to characterise the
The following additional common data files were thus templates.
introduced in the next steps, and specialised per each country, to In the next paragraphs, the Italian energy system is described
model the energy system development over the chosen time from the supply to the demand sectors, resuming the main
horizon: features and specific assumptions with reference to the sub-
sectors. Regarding air emissions, only carbon dioxide was
 Technology repository: it contains a full list of technologies, considered in this study in order to take into account the
already available or that will be available in the next time contribution of each country to the overall amount at the Pan-
periods of the time horizon. Each technology is explicitly European level.
identified and described by a number of technical parameters
(e.g. efficiency, availability, technical life of the process, 3.1. Supply
construction end, dismantling lead-time, contribution to the
peak equations, overall efficiency of a commodity and time- Italy is characterized by few natural resources and by a
slices) and economic parameters (e.g. investment, operating massive use of gas (more then any other European country) due
and maintenance, dismantling costs, taxes, environmental to the rejection of nuclear power and to a greatly reduced use of
costs, subsidies). coal to generate electrical energy.
 Demand projections: additional parameters were introduced Energy dependence and fossil fuels supply security are now
to describe demand curves: demand’s own-price elasticity and will continue to be over the coming years a major criticality
(i.e. the relationship between the quantity of demand and its in the country economic development: it has been estimated
price), the total allowed range of variation of demand values, that 91.8% of all the raw materials required to satisfy the
and the number of steps for the discrete approximation of the national energy needs were imported in 2005 (compared to the
curve [10]. In the NEEDS project, the construction of the 64.7% of EU) and that this figure will increase to 98.8% by
reference useful energy demand projections was based on the 2025 (EU value: 82.7%) under the current trends [17]. Another
general equilibrium model GEM-E3 (EU22 countries) [15], problem related to supply is the inadequate infrastructure
that allows generating a consistent set of drivers to be used in system, especially with regard to the gas transport and storage
the TIMES models (GDP and GDP per head growth, private system, that has not kept pace with the evolving demand.
consumption as a proxy for disposal income, sectoral In the following, the main assumptions adopted to model the
production growth). A special GAMS program was written Italian energy supply are described, with reference to fossil
to compute the projections based on GEM-E3 results, specific fuels (reserves and domestic extraction, imports and exports),
assumptions and base-year calibration data [16]. electricity, heat and renewable fuels.
 User constraints: provide information on the various
exogenous system’s boundaries according to the scenario 3.1.1. Fossil fuels
hypotheses. In the NEEDS context, a baseline (BAU— As concerns reserves and domestic extraction, of major
Business As Usual) scenario as well as policy scenarios are importance is the crude oil production, on which Italy has a
analysed. The user constraints are useful not only to long history. According to WEC [18], the proved recoverable
reproduce the standard boundary conditions but also to reserves of crude oil at end-1999 were 61 Mtonnes (448 Mbar-
analyse the effects of policies on the energy system (e.g. rels) whereas the estimated additional reserves recoverable
limits to pollutant emissions, resources availability, RES were 28 Mtonnes (203 Mbarrels). The correspondent produc-
potential, etc.) that can be modelled in terms of bounds on the tion was of 5 Mtonnes (100 Mbarrels), with a R/P (reserves/
overall or net production of a commodity, on imports and production) ratio of 0.05. Total oil output (including minor
exports of commodities, on emissions. quantities of NGLs) has been falling in recent years. The
refinery capacity in 2000 was of 2294 thousand barrels daily
3. The Italy NEEDS-TIMES model and it is remained constant till 2004 [19]. The Italian Oil
production is only a small portion of the total requirement (5%
According to the latest census conducted in 2001 by ISTAT, in 2001, according to WEC [18]), so most part of the supplies
Italy has a population of 56.3 million, with a GDP of 1191.057 comes from abroad (mainly Russia and Libya), both as crude
bill of current Euro2000. The country is divided into 20 input to national refineries and as refined products.
administrative Regions – 5 of which have special autonomous As concerns natural gas, the proved recoverable reserves at
status that enables them to enact legislation on some of their end-1999 were 191 billion cubic metres, the estimated
specific local matters – 103 Provinces and 8101 Municipalities. additional reserves recoverable were 44 billion cubic metres,
768 C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776

the production was 17.5 billion cubic metres, with a R/P ratio of where natural gas provides 44% of the CHP production,
10.9. It is mainly imported by pipeline from Algeria and followed by oil (39%) and coal (12%). For conventional power
Russian Federation (respectively 38.4% and 34.2% in 2004 plants it can be noticed an opposite situation: natural gas
according to BP [19] whereas only a very small export (0.06 provides 36% of the production versus the 46% of oil (39%),
billion cubic metres) was noticed in 2004 towards Croatia. whereas coal gives 16%.
In 2004, the same data source reports for LNG (liquefied Autoproducers contribute to 7.6% of the total gross
natural gas) a total import of 5.9 billion cubic metres, of electricity production (compared to 92.4% of public produ-
which 64.4% from Nigeria and the remaining part from cers), with a larger contribution in the thermoelectric sector
Algeria. (8.6%) and only 3.5% in the hydroelectric sector.
Coal importance in the country’s energy needs has declined Italy is also a net importer of electricity from neighbor
(only 6.8% in 2002, one of the lowest levels in the EU), and it is countries, importing 48.4 TWh of energy and with an import/
mainly used to fuel electricity generation. Italy was one of the export balance of 42.0 TWh (EU15: 24 TWh). The transmis-
first European countries to completely stop domestic produc- sion network is based on 9782 km of total grid at 380 kV,
tion, with the last facility closing in 2001 [20]. It is mainly 11,980 km at 220 kV and on 44,046 km of total grid at 150–
imported from Indonesia and South Africa, followed by 132 kV.
Colombia, Australia and Ukraine whereas only a small As concerns the demand sector, the power use is higher for
percentage (1.2% in 2005) comes from Europe (mostly from Industry (53%, 148192.4 GWh), followed by Commercial
Poland). (23%, 65108.8 GWh), Residential (22%, 61111.7 GWh) and
Coke is imported from China, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Japan Agriculture (2%, 4906.6 GWh). The per capita electricity use is
and Ukraine and it is mainly (82.7% in 2005) exported into EU, 4959 kWh/inhabitant (EU15: 6373 kWh/inhabitant) with a
in particular France and Germany. density of 972 MWh/sq. km (EU15: 764 MWh/sq. km).
Moreover, for Lignite, the proved amount in place at end- These values almost agree with those reported by Eurostat
1999 was 15 million tonnes, whereas the estimated additional (except for slight differences) some modifications were
amount in place and reserves recoverable were respectively 22 necessary in the related template’s data. On the other hand,
and 20 million tonnes. It is totally imported from Germany. in the base-year energy balance from Eurostat (PJ) there were
With reference to the modeling aspects, only small some evident inconsistencies and lack of data, that required
corrections were done in the Eurostat energy balance for these further computations, corrections and integrations in both the
fuels, with the aim to assure consistency to the overall balance ELC template and the IND one (where autoproducers of
of this sector (production and consumption, taking into account electricity and heat are explicitly modeled).
losses, storages, imports/exports) and for each fuel.
3.1.3. Renewable fuels
3.1.2. Electricity and heat The total primary energy supply of renewables in 2000, as
Italy is a major power producer. According to GRTN [21] at reported by Eurostat, is 358 PJ (8.5 Mtonnes). This values
the end of 1999 Italy counted on a net capacity of power plants agrees with that reported in the official national energy balance
of 73.9 GW (12.9% of the EU capacity and 2.2% of the World [22] and also with a study conducted by IEA [23], which
capacity), and on a total gross electricity production of outlines an increase of primary production of renewables in
265.7 TWh (10.5% of EU15 and 1.8% of the World), with a net Italy from 6.5 Mtonnes (272 PJ) in 1990 to 9.7 Mtonnes
production of 243.8 TWh (EU15: 2369 TWh). (406 PJ) in 2001.
Although Italy produces nearly three quarters of its power This growth over the past decade was largely due to the rapid
from fossil fuels (being in 1999 the gross electricity production increase in the use of solid biomass, MSW and biogas.
209.1 TWh, on a total of 265.7 TWh), the Italian power Hydropower accounts for the largest share of renewables
industry was a pioneer in exploiting renewable energy sources (44.6% in 2000), but geothermal (36.3%) and biomass (wood
in electricity generation [18]. With its 52.2 TWh Italy is, in fact, and wood waste: 13.0%) are also significant contributors. Solar
the third largest hydroelectricity producer in EU15, after France and wind energy still contribute very little to renewable energy
(77.1 TWh) and Sweden (70.3 TWh). Moreover it is the fourth supply.
world producer of power from geothermic sources (4.4 TWh)
and it ranks sixth in the world for wind and solar power. In 3.2. Demand
general, thermoelectric power provides the base-load produc-
tion whereas peak-load demand is satisfied by hydroelectric and The final energy consumption, with reference to the
turbo-gas power. analysed demand sectors, shows that the main contributions
As concerns power generation from fossil fuels, oil has been are given by transport (35%), industry (32%) and residential
for many years the principal energy source but in last years (21%), followed by commercial (9%) and agriculture (3%).
thanks both to an increasing concern for the environmental This outlines the importance of analysing in detail the demand
issues and to the diffusion of CCGT technologies, natural gas side in order to find out suited interventions aimed to a
has surpasses oil, representing nowadays the first energy source reduction of fossil fuels consumption, an improvement of
for power generation in Italy [18]. This is particularly true for environmental performances of end-use technologies and a
CHP plants (that represent 58% of the total gross production), reduction of atmospheric emissions from these sectors.
C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776 769

3.2.1. Residential, commercial and agriculture


In 2000, the total consumption of the residential sector was
1145 PJ, of which natural gas and electricity contributed
respectively for 61.5% and 19.2%, followed by 13.2% of
petroleum products (mainly diesel oil). Only 5.1% comes from
renewable energy sources. In terms of end-use demands, the
residential energy demand is mainly due to space heating
(54%), followed by water heating (24%), cooking (11%) and
electrical uses (11%) and cooling (0.02%).
In the base-year energy balance from Eurostat (PJ) it was
evident the lack of data regarding heat consumption, whereas
the Italian District Heating Association [24] pointed out that
this sector utilises 60% of the total heat provided in the grid,
giving a value of nearly 9.4 PJ. Moreover, comparing the Fig. 3. Final energy consumption of residential, commercial and agriculture by
Eurostat values with those reported by the official National energy source in 2000 (source: CNR-IMAA elaboration on Eurostat data).
Energy Balance [22]; there were found unacceptable incon-
sistencies due by a massive underestimate (1.84 PJ instead of
220 PJ) of Natural gas for Residential and a wrong sharing of cooling (0.02%), water heating (25%), cooking (12%),
other fossil fuels consumption between Residential and electrical uses (23%).
Commercial, as summarised in the graph of Fig. 2. Apart from the inconsistencies found in the Eurostat
Assumptions were introduced to characterise the number balance, it should be pointed out that this sector is characterised
and typology of dwellings (21,653,288 occupied households by a general lack of specific data thus to cope with the detail
out of 27,291,993 total, according to ISTAT [25]), to project level required by the sector template, several assumption were
useful energy demand and to define stocks, efficiencies and necessary to characterise its template.
market shares of several technologies (e.g. boilers, heat pumps, According to the preliminary decisions, Agriculture was
air conditioning systems, light bulbs, stoves, refrigerators, cloth modelled in a simplified way, that is as a ‘‘black box’’
washers, cloth dryers, dish washers), as described extensively in comprehensive of energy inputs and emission outputs. This
[26]. choice will not prevent possible future exploitation of this
The Commercial sector takes into account the consumption sector, also by the light of the increasing role of biofuel
of public services (public administration, schools, hospitals, cultivations and possible energy saving interventions. The
etc.) and private ones (commerce, restaurants, insurances, etc.). Eurostat base-year energy balance of this sector was very
In the last recent years the contribution of Commercial to the similar to that reported in official national statistics (among
total energy demand of the Civil sector has increased from 29% which ENEA [27]), reporting 134 PJ of total consumption in
in 1995 to 33% in 2003 [27]. In 2000, its consumption was of 2000, with a predominant contribution of petroleum products
502 PJ (30% of the total demand) and the main used energy (76.6%, mainly gas/diesel oil), followed by electricity (13.2%),
source were natural gas (46.8%) and electricity (40.6%) gas (6.1%), and renewables (4.2%, biomass), as reported in
(Fig. 3). The final energy consumption per end-use, compre- Fig. 3.
hensive of 5.6 PJ of heat added to the Eurostat energy balance
figures (according to AIRU [24] this sector absorbs 36% of the 3.2.2. Industry
total heat provided to the grid) is: space heating (40%), space This sector’s template takes into account also industrial
electric and thermal autoproducers, whose computation
required complex calculations and integrations to overcome
inconsistencies and lack of data, above all, in the explicit
characterisation of CHP autoproducers (more detailed infor-
mation can be found in [26]). In brief, the main problem
encountered in the characterisation of this template dealt with
the setting up of the Eurostat Italian energy balance, where it is
represented only the heat sold to third parties by industrial
autoproducers, not explicating that produced and consumed in
the same sector. Moreover, the reported input fuels to
autoproducer thermal power station take into account also a
hidden share related to heat production that had to be computed
separately according to the values provided by the national
association of autoproducers [28].
In 2000, Industry had a net (autoproduction excluded) total
Fig. 2. Summary of the changes done in the residential and commercial energy consumption of 1715 PJ (2198 PJ, taking into account also the
balance. input fuels for autoproduction of electricity and heat). The
770 C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776

Fig. 4. Final energy consumption of industry by sector in 2000 (source: CNR-IMAA elaboration on Eurostat data).

industrial activity has then presented a contraction in the petroleum products account for 94.1% of the total consumption,
following years 2001–2003, mainly due to the increasing followed by gas (4.3%) and electricity (1.6%). In particular, the
competitive pressure [27]. As reported in Fig. 4, two-thirds of main contribution to the overall energy consumption (1841 PJ)
the final energy consumption of the sector is due to industries is given by road transport (83.5%), whereas air, inland
producing non-metallic mineral products (20.1%), chemical navigation and rail transport accounts respectively for 8%,
(17.9%), iron and steel (16.3%), and engineering and other 6.6%, 1.9%.
metal (12.1%). The base-year energy balance from Eurostat (PJ) was
With regard to the final energy consumption by energy comparable with the national official one [27]. Only two main
source, it can be noticed (Fig. 5) that gases (mainly natural gas) changes were done to harmonise the basic data to the template
are the most used (33.9%), closely followed by electricity requirements. To take into account the actual natural gas
(29.8%). Also important are petroleum products (15.1%), heat consumption (about 13.7 PJ) without modifying drastically the
(12.2%) and coal (8.3%). templates structure, it was introduced a specific technology for
The characterisation of industrial sub-sectors required many Road transport to LPG consumption, increasing its value from
efforts. The share of fuel consumption by sub-sectors was 65.4 to 79.1 PJ. Taking into account this assumption, the
obtained referring to data provided by the national industrial breakdown of consumption by fuel and by sub sector is shown
associations, where possible, and to the natural gas and in Table 2.
electricity consumptions reported by the Gas Intensive At the same time, the stock of two- and three-wheelers
Association. The characterization of technologies was based estimated by DG TREN (3376 thousand of vehicles) was
on the results of the ECN-MATTER project [29,30]. These data increased to 7827 thousand, according to the latest data made
were then adjusted, where necessary, to the national situation available by the Italian Ministry of Infrastructures and
until a perfect match between the Eurostat energy balance data Transport [31], which include also a recent estimate of
and those calculated on the basis of the hypotheses above mopeds, neglected so far. The final values of the vehicles stock
mentioned was reached. Table 1 summarises the industrial sub- are reported in Table 3.
sectors demands (evaluated from the data provided by sector-
industrial associations), the reference data sources and some
assumptions used for characterising energy intensive industries. 3.3. Carbon dioxide emissions

3.2.3. Transport The national agency for the protection of the environment
As concerns this sector, detailed information on transporta- [32] in 2000 estimated a total emission of carbon dioxide of
tion modes are available per several EU countries by DG TREN 445 Mtonnes, of which 98% are due to the energy sector, 5% to
and were integrated with the Eurostat data. In transport, industrial processes whereas changes in land and forest use give
a credit of 4%.
In the TIMES_IT model, carbon dioxide emissions were
mainly computed with reference to fuels combustion, using the
emission factors reported in Table 4. These factors are
contained in the EMI sheet of templates and are considered
constant from 2000 till the end of the time horizon. An
additional estimate of CO2 from processes was taken into
account for energy intensive industrial sectors (aluminium,
cement, lime, glass, iron and steel).

4. Main national energy and environmental policies

Fig. 5. Final energy consumption of industry by energy source in 2000 (source: In order to characterise the energy system behaviour on the
CNR-IMAA elaboration on Eurostat data). time horizon a careful analysis of the national normative
C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776 771

Table 1
Summary of the main demands and data sources for the Italian industrial sector
Industry sub-sectors Code Demand (source) Unit Main assumptions
Iron and steel IIS 26.62 Mtonnes Raw iron produced by Blast Furnace. Crude steel by electric arc
furnace (62%) and by blast oxygen furnace (38%), a 21% of it
utilizes scraps
Aluminium IAL 0.93 Mtonnes 40% of aluminium produced by recycling aluminium scraps, and
the remaining 60% by Hall-Heroult process
Copper ICU 1.34 Mtonnes 56% of copper produced by recycling of scraps, the remaining
from new materials
Other non-ferrous metals INF 3.72 PJ
Ammonia IAM 9.4 Mtonnes 50% of ammonia by standard production and 50% by advanced processes
Chlorine ICL 0.6 Mtonnes Chlorine produced for 22% by standard and 78% by advanced membrane
Other chemicals ICH 161.77 PJ
Cement ICM 39.80 Mtonnes 98% of the total clinker production through dry process. Proportions
given for clinker kilns, by input fuel
Lime ILM 4.20 Mtonnes
Glass hollow IGH 3.70 Mtonnes 34% of the production carried out using recycled glass
Glass flat IGF 0.84 Mtonnes
Other non-metallic minerals INM 77.68 PJ
High-quality paper IPP 2.99 Mtonnes Pulp paper production: 59% by mechanical process, 13% by chemical
process and 28% by pulp recycling. The pulp produced is used to obtain
low and high quality paper
Low-quality paper IPP 6.01 Mtonnes
Other industries IOI 520.05 PJ
Non-energy consumption—chemicals NEC 320.7 PJ
Non-energy consumption—others NEO 141.7 PJ

orientation on energy and environmental themes was carried operating; the carrying out of the IPPC (Integrated Pollution
out. The main outcomes are reported in the following. Prevention and Control) Directive (Legislative Decree 4
August 1999 n. 372) for maximizing energy efficiency in
 Liberalisation of energy markets, in particular it deals with industry, tertiary and residential and to reduce the thermal
the distribution in the oil sector (effective by 1 July 2000, losses in new and existing buildings; a voluntary agreement
according to law 29 December 1999, n. 496); the electricity between ministries and the leading Italian power company on
market with the realization from 2003 of an Italian Exchange the substitution of existing thermoelectric systems with low
of electricity (The Legislative Decree 16 March 1999 n. 79); efficiency; and actions to foster the diffusion of vehicles with
and the gas sector (Decree 164/00), for which establishes a a reduced environmental impact as well as to develop
degree of market opening greater than that required in the efficient strategies for supporting public transport (Ministry
European Natural Gas Directive 98/30/CE. Decree of 18 October 2002).
 GHG emissions reduction and implementation of the Kyoto  Renewable energy sources: Following the White Book of the
targets: The Italian Parliament ratified the Kyoto Protocol in European Union, that establishes as a minimal objective to
2002 (Law n. 120/2002) and was engaged to reduce the doubling the energy contribution from renewable sources (on
national GHG emissions by 6.5% compared with the 1990 the whole EU15 countries) within 2010, the Italian
reference values within 2012. The policy measures under- Parliament has promulgated a decision (White book for
taken to achieve the prefixed targets were designed in the valorisation of renewable energy sources, approved from
‘‘National Action Plan for the reduction of GHG emissions’’ CIPE on 6 August 1999) in order to increase electric energy
(CIPE Decision of 19 December 2002) and other specific production from renewable sources (from 10.7 Mtonnes of
measures and tools were carried out at national level to obtain 1997 to 16.7 Mtonnes within 2010). With this orientation,
a reduction of GHG emissions. The main ones include a several normative have been introduced, for instance, to
progressive carbon tax (Law n. 448/98), not yet made fully introduce into the national system a 2% minimum share of

Table 2
Base-year data aggregated by sector fuel for the Italian transport sector (PJ)
PJ LPG Motor spirit Kerosene—jet fuels Diesel oil Heavy fuel oil Natural gas Biodiesel Electricity Total
Rail 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 29 35
Road 79 734 0 725 0 0 0 0 1538
Air 0 0 146 0 0 0 0 0 146
Inland navigation + bunkers 0 0 0 44 78 0 0 0 122
Total 79 734 146 774 78 0 0 29 1841
772 C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776

Table 3
Base-year Stock of vehicles running in Italy (thousand)
Cars (thousand) Motos (thousand) Buses (thousand) Freights (thousand)
Diesel 4,798 86 2986
Gasoline 26,195 7827 1 362
LPG 1,292
Total 32,285 7827 87 3348

electricity produced from renewable sources (Legislative increasing energy efficiency of end-users (Ministry Decree
Decree 16 March 1999 n. 79); to introduce the Green 20 July 2004).
Certificate fostering power generation from renewables  Local air pollutant: Limits and policy measures for their
through a preferential price (Ministerial Decree 11 November reduction are established by several national laws (e.g. the
1999); to improve energy performance of buildings as well as Legislative Decree 21 May 2004 n. 171 identifies the
to foster the integration of renewable energy sources and following national emissions ceilings: 475 ktonnes for SO2,
energy diversification (Legislative Decree 19 August 2005 n. 990 ktonnes for NOx, 1159 ktonnes for VOC, and
192). Moreover laws were promulgated to guarantee an 419 ktonnes for NH3 to be achieved by the year 2010).
annual increase of 0.35% of the minimum share of electricity
from renewables (Legislative Decree 29 December 2003 n. 5. BAU scenario assumptions
387), to reach within 2015 the installation of a photovoltaic
nominal cumulated power of 1000 MW (Ministry Decree 6 In compliance with the decisions taken for the Pan-European
February 2006), to improve biodiesel and bioethanol model scenarios, also for the Italy NEEDS-TIMES model the
production (National Program for the Valorisation of baseline (BAU) scenario is characterised by exogenous
Agricultural and Forest Biomasses - CIPE deliberation n. assumptions around drivers, energy prices and policies that
217/1999) and to promote the use of biofuels and others follow a rather business as usual trend as derived with the help
renewable fuels in Transport (Legislative Decree 30 May of the general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The macroeco-
2005 n. 128). nomic and energy price background assumptions are in line
 Energy saving: The most important national normative with those reported in the latest DG TREN projections. The
references establish the reduction of primary energy reference scenario is without a specific climate policy (no
consumption that must be achieved by natural gas distribution constraints on the reduction target of carbon dioxide) such as to
enterprises (Ministry Decree 24 April 2001), and set national allow a proper evaluation of Kyoto and post-Kyoto targets. This
overall objectives of energy saving quantitative targets for follows a common choice taken inside the research stream, that
is to avoid a double constraint on this emission in the Pan
Table 4 European framework. Nevertheless the effects of applying a
Carbon dioxide emission factors, from combustion CO2 constraint will be analysed in further runs of the Italy
Fuel Code kt/PJ model.
Hard coal COAHAR 98.3 Besides these common assumptions there were introduced
Coke COACOK 94.6 those inherent the regulations in force and the current energy-
Total lignite COALIG 101.2 environmental policies. In particular with reference to the
Brown coal briquettes COABRO 101.2 demand side, the sector by sector assumptions are:
Light petroleum gas OILLPG 63.1
Gasoline OILGSL 69.3
Kerosene OILKER 71.9  Residential: the 2001 and 2005 balances were constrained to
Diesel OILDST 74.1 assure that the Eurostat national balance values were
OILHFO 77.4 reproduced in the results; some additional parameters were
Heavy fuel oil OILOTH 73.3 utilised to characterise the GEM-E3 forecasts of the Italian
Crude oil OILCRD 73.3
Residential demand (as described in [26]); and it was
Non-energy use OILNEU 0
Naphtha OILNAP 73.3 imposed an increase of solar thermal use according to the
Refinery gas OILRFG 56.1 White paper targets that foresee 3 million of m2 of solar
Feedstock (for refinery) OILFDS 73.30 collectors installed till to 2010.
Natural gas GASNAT 56.1  Transport: the fossil fuels consumption was estimated taking
Gasworks gas GASGWG 56.1
into account the Italian Oil Union forecasts [33] till to 2020
Coke oven gas GASCOG 108.2
Blast furnace gas GASBFG 108.2 and extrapolating these values on the whole time horizon; the
Wood and wood products BIOWOO 0 percentages of biofuels used for the period 2005–2010 were
Biogas BIOGAS 0 estimated according to the Legislative Decree 128/2005 as
Municipal solid waste BIOMUN 85.85 follows: 1.0% (end of 2005); 2.5% (end of 2010) and a
Sludge BIOSLU 85.85
constant increase was considered from 2015 in order to
Biofuels BIOLIQ 0
achieve a maximum percentage of 8% in 2050.
C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776 773

On the supply side, the main hypotheses introduced are:

 Nuclear plants were not considered, according to the results


of the abrogative referendum held in 1987.
 Imports and exports of electricity were set equal to the 2005
values on the whole time horizon.
 Coal and oil consumption for electricity production was
determined according to the Italian Association of Oil
Companies forecasts [33] till to 2020, extrapolating these
values up to 2050.
 No new large hydropower plant was provided over the
considered time horizon.
 The annual share of electricity generated by renewable Fig. 6. Primary energy consumption and net electricity import.
energy sources (wind, mini-hydroelectric, geothermal, waste,
biogas and wood) was defined taking into account the annual
growth of last decade (3.29% over the 1995–2004 period)
[27]. In addition to that, the maximum potential of each On the contrary, natural gas consumption increases both in
source has been limited according to the ‘‘White Book’’ electricity production and Industry. Also coal consumption
estimates [34]. increases (75%), mainly in the electricity production and in the
 A nominal cumulated power of 1000 MW for photovoltaic Industry sector.
was provided within 2015, according to the objectives of the Regarding the renewable energy sources, a gradual growth
Ministerial Decree D.M. 6/2/2006. of photovoltaic and wind use for electricity production on the
 Imports and export of some fossil fuels (naphtha, hard coal, whole time horizon can be noted according to the regulations in
coke) were set equal to the official values till to 2005 and then force. Moreover it could be observed an increase use of solar
increased stepwise up to the maximum achieved in 2050. thermal for residential water heating and commercial space
 The potential for the domestic production of energy crops and heating.
rape seed was defined according to the national potentials
[35]. 6.2. Electricity and heat generation

6. Main results On the overall time horizon the electricity production


increases from 250 TWh in 2000 to 352.7 TWh in 2050 (about
Runs of the BAU scenario were carried out in order to assess 41%), with a installed capacity in 2050 of 73 GW. This
the energy system behaviour over the time horizon and to obtain production is characterised by an increasing contribution of
a reference baseline for scenario analysis. CHPs (from 12% in the base-year to 39% in 2050).
A preliminary step of results analysis was devoted to As shown in Fig. 7, the most used fuels are natural gas, coal
‘‘calibrate’’ the model, so as to validate the initial set of data and hydro, whose contribution in 2050 is respectively 52%,
(based on official energy balances), assumptions and modelling 19% and 18%. According to the oil companies forecasts [33]
choices. The next step involved an evaluation of the consistency there is a reduction of oil products use for electricity and heat
of the model response in terms of energy, materials and generation whereas there is an increase of coal use, fostered by
emission balances as well as capacities and operating levels of the diffusion of new technologies characterized by more
all the analysed technologies. efficient abatement devices for air pollution control and flue gas
In this very careful iterative process, significant incon- treatment.
sistencies (data missing or unacceptable values) were found in
the Eurostat database and were opportunely eliminated having
recourse to data and specific studies coming from other national
sources.
The main results obtained for the BAU scenario are reported
in the following.

6.1. Primary energy

The primary energy consumption, after an initial decrease


(8%, 2005 data), grows constantly on the entire time horizon, as
shown in Fig. 6. In the base-year oil is the most used fuel
(3329 PJ), decreasing up to 2907 PJ on the whole time horizon
due to less consumption in electricity production. Nevertheless
it remains the predominant fuel in the transport sector (RPPs). Fig. 7. Net electricity generation by fuel.
774 C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776

Hydropower contribution to the net generated electricity


achieves 25% due to the installation of new mini hydro plants
from 2001.
Wood, geothermal, waste, and biogas contribution to the net
generated electricity (accounted as ‘‘Others’’ in Fig. 7) in 2050
is about 7.57 TWh, 6.4 TWh, 3 TWh and 1.81 TWh, respec-
tively.
Electricity production by industrial autoproducers is also
increased (from the initial 37.1 TWh to 126.3 TWh in 2050)
with an increasing contribution of CHPs (from 16 TWh in year
2000 to 126.3 TWh final, corresponding to a net capacity of
17.2 GW). Natural gas is the most used fuel, whereas oil and
coal are cut off respectively in 2040 and 2045.
Industrial autoproducers contribute also to the fulfilment of Fig. 9. Total final fuel consumption by sector.
an increasing heat demand (from 226.7 PJ in the base-year to
562.2 PJ in 2050, mainly due to industry and commercial),
increasing their production from 210 PJ in year 2000 up to Methanol and hydrogen (others), are being used from 2010
520.8 PJ in 2050, whereas heating plants contribution (both in the transport sector, their contribution increasing from 19 PJ
public and industrial) is about 3% and reduces itself until zero up to 82 PJ in 2050.
from 2030. As concerns the sector by sector energy consumption
Also public CHP energy consumption for heat and (Fig. 9), the results are summarised as follows:
electricity production increases 2.5 times on the whole time
horizon, being characterised by a prevalent use of natural gas  Industry: there is a 74% overall increase in 2050 respect to the
(80% in 2050), whereas wood, waste and other gases (biogas, base-year value, with a net reduction of petroleum products
derived gases, coke oven gas and blast furnace gas) contribution use (41%), and a remarkable increase of coal (152%), heat
is respectively 12%, 8% and 0.4%, accounting for the (150%), natural gas (98%), electricity (37%), renewables
remaining 20%. (26%) and waste (13%). Among coal products, lignite, that
As a consequence, fuels consumption in industrial CHP until 2030 is used from Iron and Steel industry, after 2035 is
plants increases remarkably (70% in 2050), with a prevailing used for clinker production. Another switch regards natural
use of natural gas (the only used fuel from 2040 onwards). gas that at the base-year is mainly used from Other Non-
Energy Intensive industries (ONE), and in 2050 mainly from
6.3. Final energy demand Chemical Industries for ammonia production.
 Commercial: the energy consumption increases 27%. As
Following the increase of energy demand, there is an concern fuel use, there is a consistent reduction of oil
increase of fuel consumption by all sectors (Fig. 8) on the time products and natural gas use (respectively 81% and 16%)
horizon. In particular, heat, coal and renewables have the most on the whole time horizon, whereas heat, renewables and
remarkable increase (respectively, heat from 225 PJ of the base- electricity increase respectively from 5.7 to 35 PJ, from 8.9 to
year to 562 PJ in 2050, coal from 195 to 485 PJ and renewables 22.5 PJ and from 203 to 361 PJ in 2050. Nevertheless natural
from 81 to 175 PJ). gas is still the prevailing fuel for the fulfilment of space
Natural gas, electricity, waste and oil products increase is heating demand with an increasing consumption (157 PJ in
respectively 47%, 39%, 13% and 7%. 2050). Electricity is mostly used for water heating (109.7 PJ
in 2050). The base-year energy demand for cooking is
fulfilled 59% by electricity, 34% natural gas and 7% by other
fuels, whereas in 2050, electricity share being constant,
natural gas share increases up to 40%.
 Residential: according to a decreasing demand trend fostered
by more efficient technologies and new building standards,
energy consumption decreases 12% on the overall time
horizon. As concerns fuels breakdown, coal is cut off from
2030, whereas electricity and natural gas consumption
increases respectively 6% and 3%. Also heat, petroleum
products and renewables consumption decreases (respectively
91%, 55% and 51% in 2050). However, renewables use
decrease is mainly due to a smaller use of wood, whereas at the
same time solar thermal increases from 0.46 to 9.63 PJ in 2050.
 Agriculture: in agreement with an overall estimated 28% of
Fig. 8. Total final fuel consumption by fuel. energy demand growth, fuel consumption shows a quite
C. Cosmi et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 763–776 775

energy system modelling, trying to outline the effectiveness of


this approach in energy analysis and decision-making. The
presented results can be interpreted as a possible evolution
pathway of the Italy energy system until the year 2050,
referring to a ‘‘business as usual’’ (BAU) scenario, that reflects
actual national policies and trends in energy consumption.
The results show that the primary energy consumption of
Italy increases constantly from year 2005 until 2050. There is a
remarkable increase of natural gas and coal that are both
imported, as well as oil products, pointing out the structural
weakness as concerns the national energy security of supply.
Fig. 10. Carbon dioxide emissions.
Final energy consumption is characterized by a growing
demand of electricity by almost all sectors, fulfilled by more
linear increase. As this sector is modelled as a single generic efficient thermal plants, co-generation and, many renewable
technology, the fuel share is obviously unchanged; oil power plants (among which hydro are still prevailing) in line
products and electricity being the most used fuels (respec- with the national policies. Consumption is increasing for
tively 76% and 13%). industry, commercial, agriculture and transport but not for
 Transport; total fuels consumption increases 32% on the residential that, on the contrary, shows a declining trend.
whole time horizon. In 2050, the refined petroleum products In the transport sector there is still a high consumption of oil
share is 91%, renewable (methanol, hydrogen DME, ethanol products, but it can be noted also an increasing consumption of
and biodiesel) accounts for 7%, and electricity for the biofuels according to the national directives.
remaining 2%. Methanol and DME consumption are in line Although the development of the electricity sector and a
with the national policies. As concerns road transport, cars larger use of renewable, the emissions of CO2 increase 24%
show higher consumption of gasoline (630 PJ) rather than respect to the base-year value, with a maximum of 511 Mtonnes
diesel (176 PJ) in the first time period; on the contrary, diesel in 2050, reflecting the still high consumption of oil products.
consumption increases up to 341 PJ whereas gasoline Next steps will deal with the analysis of some policy
consumption decreases up to 257 PJ in 2050. Liquefied scenarios, in agreement with those planned for the Pan-
petroleum gas–LPG consumption decreases from 79 to 63 PJ European model, addressing environmental issues linked to
on the whole time horizon. As concerns buses, diesel energy use, such as Post-Kyoto climate and air quality policies,
consumption is prevailing on the whole time horizon and as well as energy policies aiming at reducing the EU-
there is a small consumption of gasoline until 2010. Freight dependency on energy imports.
transport demand is almost completely fulfilled by diesel that In this direction, future improvements of the model will focus
goes form 87% of the base-year up to 92% in 2050, the mainly on the characterisation of air emissions, introducing
remaining 8% accounted by biodiesel. Until 2005 a little further emission factors for GHGs other than CO2 and for local
amount of gasoline is used (6%) that is cut off after 2010. As air pollutants (CO, SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC).
concerns rail transport, the most used fuel is electricity whose
consumption increases from 29 PJ in the base-year to 39 PJ in Acknowledgements
2050. The sharing out between passenger and freight
transport is about 2:1 (the consumption for passenger and This work was performed in close cooperation between the
freight transport is respectively 19.5 PJ and 10 PJ in 2050). Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis and the
National Institute for the Physics of Matter, both of the Italian
6.4. Carbon dioxide emissions Research Council.
This article has been produced with the financial assistance
No Kyoto policies are considered in the baseline scenario of the European Commission (Contract Number 502687) in the
therefore, following the consumption trend, carbon dioxide context of the VI Framework Programme, Priority 6.1:
emissions increase 24% in 2050; the highest contribution is Sustainable Energy Systems, Sub-priority 6.1.3.2.5: Socio-
given by industrial sector that doubles its emissions between economic tools and concepts for energy strategy. The NEEDS
2000 and 2050 (Fig. 10). Also in transport sector there is a project, coordinated by the Institute of Studies for the
remarkable increase of emissions (+26%) due to the increase of Integration of Systems – ISIS, Rome (Italy) will run until
oil products use. On the contrary, in the conversion sector there September 2008. Views expressed herein are those of authors
is a 14% reduction, due to an increased use of renewables and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the official
(hydro, wind, and photovoltaic) for electricity production. opinion of the European Commission.

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