Table 2: Failure Data

Pronostico
Cantidad de
Failure ti Ti (acumulado) Eventos Error
number (hours)
1 78 78 2 138%
2 80 158 3 56%
3 173 331 4 42%
4 50 381 5 13%
5 142 523 5 4%
6 97 620 6 6%
7 44 664 6 17%
8 1141 1805 9 17%
9 12 1817 9 4%
10 251 2068 10 0%
11 1185 3253 13 15%
12 1236 4489 15 26%
13 236 4725 16 19%
14 236 4961 16 14%
15 177 5138 16 9%
16 62 5200 16 3%
17 78 5278 17 3%
18 433 5711 17 3%
19 689 6400 19 2%
20 44 6444 19 6%
21 233 6677 19 8%
22 1322 7999 22 1%
23 2 8001 22 5%
24 488 8489 23 4%
25 511 9000 24 4%
26 86 9086 24 7%
27 1176 10262 27 1%
28 555 10817 29 3%
29 245 11062 30 2%
30 20 11082 30 1%
31 4 11086 30 5%
32 36 11122 30 7%
33 412 11534 31 6%
34 497 12031 33 4%
35 308 12339 34 3%
36 394 12733 35 2%
37 532 13265 38 2%
38 243 13508 39 2%
39 165 13673 39 1%
40 107 13780 40 0%
41 663 14443 43 6%
42 58 14501 44 4%
43 155 14656 45 4%
44 250 14906 46 5%
45 77 14983 47 3%
46 21 15004 47 1%
47 58 15062 47 0%
48 10 15072 47 2%
49 64 15136 47 3%
50 70 15206 48 4%
51 41 15247 48 6%
52 453 15700 51 1%
53 14 15714 51 3%
54 258 15972 53 1%
55 214 16186 55 0%
56 98 16284 56 1%
57 45 16329 56 2%
58 96 16425 57 2%
59 180 16605 58 1%
60 118 16723 59 1%
61 8 16731 59 3%
62 66 16797 60 3%
63 62 16859 61 4%
64 231 17090 63 2%
65 215 17305 65 0%
66 179 17484 67 1%
67 26 17510 67 0%
68 1 17511 67 1%
69 25 17536 67 3%
70 85 17621 68 3%
71 82 17703 69 3%
72 106 17809 70 2%
73 159 17968 72 1%
74 16 17984 72 2%
75 191 18175 75 1%
76 268 18443 78 3%
77 15 18458 78 1%
78 209 18667 81 4%
79 2 18669 81 2%
80 32 18701 81 2%
81 22 18723 82 1%
82 99 18822 83 1%
83 38 18860 84 1%
84 62 18922 84 1%
85 13 18935 85 0%
86 10 18945 85 1%
87 15 18960 85 2%
88 1 18961 85 3%
89 18 18979 85 4%
90 34 19013 86 5%
91 19 19032 86 5%
92 2 19034 86 6%
93 135 19169 88 5%
94 15 19184 88 6%
95 17 19201 89 7%
96 215 19416 92 4%
97 39 19455 93 5%
98 70 19525 94 4%
99 70 19595 95 4%
100 6 19601 95 5%
101 12 19613 95 6%
102 30 19643 96 6%
103 28 19671 96 7%
104 42 19713 97 7%
105 72 19785 98 6%
106 16 19801 98 7%
107 136 19937 101 6%
108 53 19990 102 6%
109 442 20432 110 1%
110 1 20433 110 0%
111 1 20434 110 0%
112 264 20698 116 4%
113 762 21460 134 19%
114 83 21543 136 20%
115 41 21584 137 19%
116 18 21602 138 19%
117 43 21645 139 19%
118 61 21706 141 19%
119 56 21762 142 19%
120 105 21867 145 21%
121 45 21912 146 21%
122 2 21914 146 20%
123 23 21937 147 20%
124 1 21938 147 19%
125 1 21939 147 18%
126 12 21951 148 17%
127 3 21954 148 16%
128 28 21982 148 16%
 Edad Tasa de Falla Cantidad de fa
Kappa 0.383664634 t 100 0.010 3
Alfa 0.515773594 250 0.006 4
AlfaD 0.000239461 500 0.005 5
Error total 9.8 750 0.004 6
Inversion (CAPEX) 1300000 USD 1000 0.003 7
Mcorrectiva 7200 USD 1250 0.003 8
1500 0.003 9
1750 0.003 9
2000 0.002 10
2250 0.002 10
2500 0.002 11
2750 0.002 12
3000 0.002 12
3250 0.002 13
3500 0.002 13
3750 0.002 14
4000 0.002 14
4250 0.002 15
4500 0.002 15
4750 0.002 16
5000 0.002 16
5250 0.002 17
5500 0.002 17
5750 0.002 17
6000 0.002 18
6250 0.002 18
6500 0.002 19
6750 0.002 19
7000 0.002 20
7250 0.002 20
7500 0.002 21
7750 0.002 21
8000 0.002 22
8250 0.002 22
8500 0.002 23
8750 0.002 24
9000 0.002 24
9250 0.002 25
9500 0.002 25
9750 0.003 26
10000 0.003 27
10250 0.003 27
10500 0.003 28
10750 0.003 29
11000 0.003 29
11250 0.003 30
11500 0.003 31
11750 0.003 32
12000 0.004 33
12250 0.004 33
12500 0.004 34
12750 0.004 35
13000 0.004 36
13250 0.004 37
13500 0.005 39
13750 0.005 40
14000 0.005 41
14250 0.005 42
14500 0.006 44
14750 0.006 45
15000 0.006 47
15250 0.006 48
15500 0.007 50
15750 0.007 52
16000 0.008 53
16250 0.008 55
16500 0.008 57
16750 0.009 60
17000 0.009 62
17250 0.010 64
17500 0.010 67
17750 0.011 70
18000 0.012 72
18250 0.012 75
18500 0.013 79
18750 0.014 82
19000 0.015 86
19250 0.016 89
19500 0.016 93
19750 0.017 98
20000 0.018 102
20250 0.020 107
20500 0.021 112
20750 0.022 117
21000 0.023 123
21250 0.025 129
21500 0.026 135
21750 0.028 142
22000 0.029 149
22250 0.031 156
22500 0.033 164
22750 0.035 173
23000 0.037 182
23250 0.039 192
23500 0.042 202
23750 0.044 212
24000 0.047 224
24250 0.050 236
24500 0.053 249
24750 0.056 262
25000 0.059 277
Costo por hora
13188
5309
2674
1792
1351
1085
908
781
685
611
552
503
462
Chart Title
428
398 Edad
373 160 0.070
350 140 0.060
331
120
313 0.050
100

Tasa de Falla
297
# de Fallas

0.040
283 80
0.030
270 60
259 40
0.020
248 0.010
20
238
229 0 0.000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
221
Edad
Column A Column D Column L
213
206
200
193
300
188
182
250
177
Costo por hora de operación

172
168 200
164
160 150
156
152 100
149
146 50
143
140
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25
Edad
 100

Costo po
50

0
137 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25
135 Edad
132
130
128
126
124
122
120
118
117
115
114
113
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
105
104
103
103
102
102
101
101
101
101
101
101
101
101
101
102
102
103
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
112
113
115
117
119
121
124
126
129
132
 0.070

0.060

0.050
Tasa de Falla

0.040

0.030

0.020

0.010

0.000
0 30000

Column L

15000 20000 25000

15000 20000 25000
Costo OVH IBOVH Tasa Uso Inicial anual Decaimiento Edad (años)
$ 195,000 20,000 10% 4000 0% 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Uso Anual (hrs) Edad ( Hrs Op.) # acumulado de fallas # de fallas Costo MC
4000 4000 14 14 $ 101,675
4000 8000 22 8 $ 55,899
4000 12000 33 11 $ 77,045
4000 16000 53 21 $ 150,292
4000 20000 102 49 $ 350,020
4000 24000 224 122 $ 875,973
4000 28000 536 313 $ 2,250,418
4000 32000 1347 810 $ 5,835,130
4000 36000 3455 2108 $ 15,179,347
4000 40000 8946 5491 $ 39,532,848
4000 44000 23251 14306 $ 103,001,364
4000 48000 60530 37279 $ 268,406,313
4000 52000 157678 97148 $ 699,465,072
4000 56000 410850 253172 $ 1,822,837,419
4000 60000 1070632 659782 $ 4,750,430,731
4000 64000 2790071 1719439 $ 12,379,958,933
4000 68000 7271054 4480984 $ 32,263,081,599
4000 72000 18948830 11677776 $ 84,079,989,261
4000 76000 49381988 30433157 $ 219,118,732,652
4000 80000 128693073 79311085 $ 571,039,813,861
Flujo descontados Flujo Descontados de OVH CAN CRF CAE
$ 92,432 $ - $ 1,262,432 110% $ 1,388,675
$ 46,197 $ - $ 1,308,629 58% $ 754,020
$ 57,885 $ - $ 1,366,514 40% $ 549,496
$ 102,651 $ - $ 1,469,165 32% $ 463,479
$ 217,335 $ 121,080 $ 1,807,580 26% $ 476,835
$ 494,464 $ - $ 2,302,044 23% $ 528,566
$ 1,154,820 $ - $ 3,456,864 21% $ 710,059
$ 2,722,131 $ - $ 6,178,995 19% $ 1,158,216
$ 6,437,525 $ - $ 12,616,520 17% $ 2,190,739
$ 15,241,624 $ 75,181 $ 27,933,326 16% $ 4,546,020
$ 36,101,350 $ - $ 64,034,675 15% $ 9,858,980
$ 85,522,523 $ - $ 149,557,198 15% $ 21,949,510
$ 202,610,116 $ - $ 352,167,315 14% $ 49,577,595
$ 480,010,064 $ - $ 832,177,379 14% $ 112,964,936
$ 1,137,215,348 $ 46,681 $ 1,969,439,408 13% $ 258,929,637
$ 2,694,239,764 $ - $ 4,663,679,172 13% $ 596,095,712
$ 6,383,078,697 $ - $ 11,046,757,869 12% $ 1,377,134,508
$ 15,122,525,124 $ - $ 26,169,282,993 12% $ 3,190,826,491
$ 35,827,663,728 $ - $ 61,996,946,721 12% $ 7,411,540,821
$ 84,881,429,679 $ 28,986 $ 146,878,405,385 12% $ 17,252,282,384
$1,000,000

$900,000

$800,000

$700,000

$600,000

$500,000
CAE

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-
0
$1,000,000

$900,000

$800,000

$700,000

$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-
0 5 10 15 20 25

Edad