April 2018

Turning risks into opportunities

How Belgian banks can shape their digital future
2 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

Management summary

In a poll of Belgian bank executives looking into the Taking action will be key for financial institutions to
main forces bringing uncertainty and (potentially) dis- avoid losing ground to competing Belgian and interna-
rupting their business, the most frequently cited were: tional banks, as well as to Big Techs. Having a clear strat-
digital banking, big data, robot process automation, ar- egy on how to (further) leverage these innovations
tificial intelligence, peer-to-peer networks, blockchain should therefore be top priority for Belgian banks. If
and open banking. they want to achieve quick wins as well as a sustainable
improvement in profitability, Belgian banks will need to
Indeed, for each of these digital forces early signs of position themselves on these innovations in line with
their impact are already visible – either in the develop- their individual corporate DNA and strategy.
ment of FinTechs active in the Belgian market or in in-
ternational examples of banks that have already em-
braced (and successfully managed) these disruptions.

Calculating the opportunities and

risks in each area, we find that the op-
portunities far outweigh the potential
risks and necessary investments. Banks
that manage to effectively leverage four
profitability-improving innovations –
digital banking, artificial intelligence,
blockchain and big data – can achieve an
estimated 1.9 ppt. increase in ROE over
the next three to five years and as much
as 5 ppt. within the next ten years.
Moreover, we find that managing open
banking is crucial to control profitability.
 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 3

Contents

1. The seven forces of disruption ............................................................................................... 4

Belgian bank executives and the uncertainty of their industry.

2. More of a benefit than a threat ........................................................................................... 14

Why most innovations can improve profitability.
Cover photo: Zentangle / iStock
4 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

Chapter 1:

The seven forces

of disruption
Belgian bank executives and the uncertainty
of their industry.
 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 5

Belgian banks have returned to pre-crisis profitability For the last 15 years, digital banking has tended to in-
levels, driven by both a decrease in costs and an increase crease rather than decrease net costs given its role as an
in revenues (mainly fees and commissions). Today, we additional channel used in a mostly hybrid customer
see several innovations emerging, potentially disrupting journey. However, we believe that over the next 10 years,
the products, processes and business models of the na- banks will be able to capitalize on the investments made
tion's banks. Yet it remains unclear where the real gains in the past and reduce costs in the physical branches.
could be or where the biggest threat lies. The impact is illustrated in the plans proposed by
When Roland Berger experts advise Belgian bank execu- several leading Belgian banking groups, which have
tives, the latter mostly refer to seven causes of disrup- announced FTE reductions of up to 25% associated
tion: digital banking, big data, robot process automa- with digitalization.
tion, artificial intelligence, peer-to-peer networks, However, it should be noted that Belgian customers
blockchain, open banking. tend to be conservative with regard to digitalization, es-
For each of the seven areas of innovation, we see both pecially compared to their Northern European counter-
early signs of their development through the advent of parts. While services like payments can be expected to
FinTechs active in the Belgian market on the one hand, become fully digital, a large proportion of the custom-
and international examples of banks that have em- ers will still want a more personal form of contact at key
braced these changes ahead of the curve on the other. moments like when they are starting a business or get-
For all of the innovations, we analyzed the potential im- ting a mortgage. Banks should therefore find the right
pact they could have on the ultimate bottom line of Bel- balance between digital banking and personal contact
gian banks and identified FinTechs working on the is- at their branches to ensure sufficient customer intimacy,
sues concerned. A and many Belgian banks are currently rolling out "in-be-
We base our assessment on the actual state and expect- tween" options whereby personal advice is provided re-
ed evolution of the underlying technology or business motely. Furthermore, any reduction of branches and
model. The disruptive forces are bringing uncertainty to staff numbers should be in line with the overall strategy
the industry and requiring banks to develop specific ap- of the bank. Banks who position themselves as custom-
proaches for how to navigate complexity. This study of- er-relationship oriented, for example, are expected to
fers useful guidance on which battles Belgian banks have lower levels of digitalization and cost reduction
should fight. than banks focusing on digital only.
Two additional risks we identified are included in our
THE SEVEN FORCES OF DISRUPTION analysis of the impact of digital banking: a reduction in
up-selling and cross-selling activities (given digital
1. DIGITAL BANKING banking's lower effectiveness than the physical channel
The shift from a physical client relationship managed in in this regard) and a margin reduction (given the fact
brick and mortar branches to a more digital client rela- that digital banking makes products simpler and in-
tionship has been going on for several years. With the creases transparency). However, our analysis shows that
introduction of first internet banking and now the wide- digital banking is the innovation with the greatest po-
spread use of mobile banking, banks have already taken tential to increase profitability for banks both in the
major steps into the digitalization of banking services. short term (3-5 years) and in the long term (10 years).
6 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

A: Selected Belgian FinTechs and international reference players for each of the disruptive innovations.

SOURCE FINTECHS INTERNATIONAL REFERENCE

OF DISRUPTION IN BELGIUM PLAYERS (BANKS/PROVIDERS)

Digital banking The Glue, D!nk DNB Norway, N26

Big data INTIX, Scaled Risk Santander, BBVA

Robot process automation UiPatch, Blue Prism, Automation Any-

where, Contextor

Artificial intelligence NG Data, NoisyChannels Santander, BBVA, IBM

Peer-to-peer networks Look&Fin, Koalect, Mozzeno Lending club, Prosper

Blockchain Finoryx, Keyrock, Orillia UBS, IBM, r3.

Open banking Pom, Ibanity, Cashfree, IbanFirst Apple pay, WeChat

Source: Roland Berger

2. BIG DATA
Banks' awareness of the value of the customer data they situations. In so doing, they do not fully optimize the
possess (such as transaction behavior, services used and value of their offering to the customer and the "custom-
personal data) rocketed with the advent of big data. Big er lifetime value" to the bank. Making effective use of
data is currently increasingly used to extract relevant in- big data will allow banks to increase up-selling and
formation and to understand and predict customer be- cross-selling by personalizing product offerings, ulti-
havior. While the technology behind big data and data mately increasing both interest and fee and commission
analytics is already fairly mature, there is still signifi- income. Moreover, big data will enable banks to make
cant potential for banks to further capture and leverage their marketing efforts more effective and therefore has
customer data in the coming years. the potential to reduce their marketing spend. Finally,
Belgian banks operating in the market today do not yet analyzing online behavior and historic data improves
fully tailor their product offering to their customers' banks' ability to estimate customer risk profiles, giving
needs or sufficiently respond to changes in customer them the opportunity to engage in risk pricing.
 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 7

3. ROBOT PROCESS AUTOMATION

Robot process automation refers to the automation of
structured, rule-based processes with known output, Making effective use of
where the automation is added as a layer on top of the
existing IT infrastructure. RPA is a proven technology big data will allow banks
with many use cases, such as the automation of manual
invoicing and the follow-up of accounts receivable to increase up-selling
through data comparison from different sources. Our
recent case experience shows a savings potential of up and cross-selling by
to 20-25% in several departments (e.g. the Finance func-
tion and in Operations). One of the big advantages of personalizing product
RPA is that it is easy to implement given its compatibil-
ity with existing IT systems, and it requires limited in- offerings. Moreover, big
vestments. Therefore, we consider it to be a quick win
that is relatively easy to implement. data will enable banks
4. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE to make their marketing
Artificial intelligence (AI) covers all type of technologies
with cognitive functions normally attributed to humans, efforts more effective
ranging from machine learning to chatbots. The AI tech-
nology has been around since the late 1950s, but has far and therefore has the
from reached its full potential. Many Belgian banks are
currently still experimenting with applications to gain potential to reduce their
experience in how to make full use of AI and how to let
the systems learn effectively. Artificial intelligence can marketing spend.
help banks both increase revenues and reduce costs.
AI enables more effective product offerings, increasing
up-selling and cross-selling opportunities, and facilitates
improved risk pricing. Moreover, advice to customers will
be available 24/7, thus creating another opportunity for
revenue generation. AI can free up time for commercial
staff, thereby enabling a reduction in the number of em-
ployees needed and/or improving the services available
to customers. Our recent case experience indicates a po-
tential 10-15% improvement in commercial time. Banks
that lay special emphasis on customer intimacy can par-
ticularly benefit from AI in further strengthening cus-
tomer relationships while still digitalizing the bank.
8 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

5. PEER-TO-PEER (P2P) NETWORKS

Artificial intelligence Peer-to-peer networks allow people to connect, share
files, and even to trade, invest and lend without the need
NoisyChannels for an intermediary. Peer-to-peer lending platforms are
in many cases seen as a threat to retail banks, in that
NoisyChannels is a Belgian start-up, founded in 2015. The they could compete with them in the future. However,
company combines artificial intelligence (AI) technologies P2P lending in Belgium has not yet taken off, especially
in the form of natural language processing (NLP) and compared to the current situation in the UK and US
machine learning (ML) to optimize service processes. markets. The limited success in Belgium can be ex-
Through the Service Augmentation Platform of NoisyChan- plained by the strong position of Belgian banks and the
nels, an organization could increase the speed and efficien- high customer loyalty of the Belgian customer. More-
cy of it customer service by anything from 20% up to 50%. over, Belgian regulation on P2P is particularly strict and
NoisyChannels develops intelligent assistance technology especially favors the protection of depositors.
that allows customer service experts who handle written Certain P2P initiatives are currently being developed on
queries to work more efficiently, and their Service Augmen- the Belgian market (e.g. Mozzeno), but so far adoption
tation Platform adds artificial intelligence to existing has not been overwhelming, with the number of active
systems and processes. depositors in the hundreds for the first year of opera-
NoisyChannels can demonstrate use cases with various tions. While we can anticipate an increase in the use of
clients in financial services and other industries, including a P2P lending over the coming years, we expect the market
second-line support team at a Belgian financial institution. share to remain limited. Moreover, banks could position
This support team replies annually to thousands of complex themselves as a partner to these platforms as an alterna-
queries from their sales organization and increased its tive to traditional bank loans, further offsetting the loss
productivity by 20% with the introduction of the Noisy- in interest income by increasing the fee income. We
Channel solution. therefore consider P2P to constitute a minor threat.
While AI is one of the most promising innovations for banks,
the investments required in AI will be high. Currently, AI 6. BLOCKCHAIN
remains expensive to develop or purchase, and the technol- Blockchain is probably one of the most debated techno-
ogy is not yet mature. Furthermore, AI is in many ways a logical developments in the world today. Especially in
second-line innovation, being only feasible if banks develop financial services, the evolution of the distributed led-
their big data capabilities. Insights from this data are ger technology is being closely followed: substantial
needed to allow the software to learn and improve. Still, we amounts are currently being invested and first use cases
believe AI has major potential owing to the time savings for developed.
commercial staff and greater up-selling and cross-selling For banks, the biggest potential of blockchain lies in the
capacity it offers by enabling continuous availability to the improvement of processes and the reduction of costs.
customer base as well as a more proactive and tailored One of the key features of blockchain is that verification,
offering to individual customers. validation and reconciliation all happen during the ac-
tual transaction. Today, this still happens in the main
after transactions have been initiated.
 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 9

Blockchain will improve processes,

e.g. verification, validation and
reconciliation. And it reduces
costs, especially fees paid to
intermediaries for clearing and
settlement, as well as payments,
trade finance, syn­dicated loans,
internal and external audit and
compli­ance.
10 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

The main costs and processes that will be impacted by A second area where major savings can be expected
blockchain are fees paid to intermediaries for clearing through the use of blockchain is compliance, and more
and settlement, as well as payments, trade finance, syn- specifically in know your customer (KYC) and anti-mon-
dicated loans, internal and external audit and compli- ey laundering (AML) arrangements. The KYC process is
ance (mainly in KYC processes). both costly and time consuming for banks. Moreover, it
Taking the example of settlement, fees are expected to has to be done at all banks for each new customer. Put-
go down by 15-30% over the next 10 years. This reflects ting these processes on blockchain would speed up the
the potential blockchain has for clearing houses like process and avoid duplication of work. From a techno-
SWIFT or Euroclear to significantly improve their inter- logical point of view, costs linked to KYC and AML could
nal processes, generating savings which will ultimately be cut in half in the next 3-5 years. The main hurdle is
be passed on to the banks. From a technological point the need for collaboration between banks. If data on a
of view, it is often argued that the distributed ledger customer is submitted by one bank, another bank has to
technology would allow banks to completely cut out trust this data in order to achieve the cost reduction in
clearing and settlement intermediaries. However, look- full. As each bank will remain liable for its own custom-
ing at SWIFT, we believe this scenario is highly unlikely ers, it is currently unclear to what extent the banks
to materialize within the time span of our analysis for
two reasons:
> SWIFT connects ~11,000 banks in 200 countries. Cut-
ting out SWIFT would require all banks to agree to Blockchain
develop a blockchain together and all banks to devel-
op interfaces with the common blockchain. We be- SettleMint
lieve this would present an almost insurmountable
challenge. SettleMint is a Belgian-based start-up that was incorporat-
> Blockchain technology is not yet mature enough to ed in August 2016. The founders met while devising and
process the large volume of payments currently pro- developing blockchain applications for a large Belgian
cessed by SWIFT in a short timeframe. financial institution, but with SettleMint their aim is to
make blockchain accessible not only to financial institu-
A scenario where banks would be bypassed altogether tions, but also to governments and companies in other
in payments through the use of cryptocurrencies is also industries.
highly unlikely from a society point of view. Once there They developed and distribute the 'Mint' middleware, a
is no longer an intermediate party, customers would suite of software development kits and developer tools that
bear the risk for their own payments. For example, if enable software developers to build blockchain-based
customers entered an incorrect account number or applications. SettleMint has already developed the first
fraud was committed with a cryptocurrency account, fully functioning applications, whereby they developed,
there would be no intermediate party who could re- tested and implemented proof-of-concept applications in
verse the transaction. We believe the resulting lack of banking, government, telecoms and the supply chain.
trust places a limit on the growth potential of crypto-
currencies.
 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 11

would need to revalidate the customer information pro-

vided by the bank originally doing the KYC/AML process. Open banking
However, we believe that within the concentrated Bel-
gian financial scene, this issue is not insurmountable. Ibanity
Finally, the distributed ledger technology increases
transparency and facilitates communication between Ibanity is a Brussels-based FinTech, founded in 2016 and
different departments and divisions of banks. Even in acquired by Isabel Group in September 2017. Ibanity
the short run, this can significantly reduce the costs of started with the goal of improving services for the end
both internal and external audit and improve the customer by helping TTPs (FinTechs and other banking
effectiveness of information sharing between support service providers) to gain access to the data held by banks,
functions. thus increasing the number and quality of services for end
customers.
7. OPEN BANKING Using the API and SDK solution designed by Ibanity, banks
With PSD2 becoming effective as of this year, banks will can open up their data to TTPs and TTPs can gain easy
be forced to give third parties access to payment ac- access to this data. Banks can use this solution not only to
counts when asked to do so by their customers. This comply with the PSD2 regulation, but also to more easily
legislation is one step in the development of open bank- develop new financial apps without being held back by
ing, facilitated on the technology front by the Applica- legacy IT systems, to get access to data from other banks in
tion Programming Interface (API). Open banking will order to become a TTP, and to set up collaboration with
facilitate the entry of new and non-traditional players FinTechs. Ibanity provides all the technical services related
into the financial services market and should also lead to the APIs and creates a 'buffer' between the TTPs and the
to the introduction of new and more tailored services banks, reducing the (IT) maintenance costs for banks.
for end customers, reduced prices and a better custom- Currently, Ibanity is working with mid-tier banks to help
er experience. Banks expect open banking to be one of them become PSD2 compliant and offers a network of
the biggest drivers of change in the financial services FinTechs to connect with banks.
industry. With the introduction of Apple Pay and simi-
lar services, we are already seeing Big Techs entering
the payment market. While Big Techs are unlikely to
begin positioning themselves as banks owing to hur- ments, first to comply with the new PSD2 regulation,
dles like the need to manage a multitude of local regu- and then to defend their position in the market.
lations and the possibility of having to be split up, what To limit the negative impact as much as possible, banks
we do expect to see is Big Techs cherry picking and of- can also put themselves in the driving seat of the new
fering selected banking services, especially like in pay- ecosystem in order to benefit from the changes. By
ment services. offering better and more numerous services to end
For Belgian banks, we expect open banking to reduce customers and developing a multibank platform,
income from fees for payments, and to put pressure on traditional banks can exploit and strengthen the
margins due to increased competition faced by retail current high level of trust expressed in banks by Belgian
banks. Aside from that, banks will need to make invest- customers.
12 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

Open banking will have clear winners and losers. Play-

ers who manage to take advantage of the new opportu-
nities created by open banking will claim a large slice of Open banking will
the pie, while the others might be forced into a back-of-
fice role, losing market share and margins. facilitate the entry of
Currently, we can see that all Belgian banks are antici-
pating the new legislation, but some seem to be at a new and non-traditional
more advanced stage than others. With the payconiq
app and Itsme, Belgian banks are already collaborating players into the financial
in anticipation of the new regulation. However, if they
really want to take a leading role in the new ecosystem, services market and
banks could already start developing new services, en-
abled by API. There are a range of international exam- should also lead to the
ples here, such as BBVA, Capital One and Crédit Agri-
cole, but some Belgian banks are also moving fast on introduction of new and
this and see APIs as a new product and a channel for
both existing and new clients. more tailored services
Especially in an open banking environment, cross-fertil-
ization between banks and between banks and FinTechs for end customers,
would seem to be a crucial prerequisite to successfully
face the new reality. Belgian banks are in an advanta- reduced prices and a
geous position given their history of collaboration driv-
en partly by the scale of the Belgian financial scene. The better customer
same collaborative model is currently being applied by
FinTechs, and could be a key asset for the Belgian bank- experience.
ing landscape.
 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 13

Especially in an open banking

environment, cross-fertilization between
banks and between banks and FinTechs
would seem to be a crucial prerequisite to
successfully face the new reality. Belgian
banks are in an advantageous position
given their history of collaboration driven
partly by the scale of the Belgian financial
scene. The same collaborative model is
currently being applied by FinTechs, and
could be a key asset for the Belgian
banking landscape.
14 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

Chapter 2:

More of a benefit than

a threat
Why most innovations can improve profitability.
 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 15

For this study, we analyzed the impact of 7 innovations

on the return on equity (ROE) of the 6 largest Belgian
retail banks, taking their P&L from 2015 and 2016 as the Digital banking has
starting point. Our analysis estimated the impact per
innovation on each line item of the P&L. The change in the biggest potential
ROE for the average Belgian retail bank was calculated
as the change in net profit divided by the average equity to increase ROE both in
value. A distinction was made between short-term ef-
fects (3-5 years) and long-term effects (10 years). Esti- the short and long term,
mates on the P&L impact were based on Roland Berger
case expertise and analysis, expert interviews and litera- followed by AI,
ture review.
Our analysis shows that many innovations emerging in blockchain and big data.
the banking sector do not pose a threat as such, but of-
fer opportunities for Belgian banks to improve their
cost/income ratio. Digital banking has the biggest po-
tential to increase ROE both in the short and long term,
followed by AI, blockchain and big data. Applied ade- Investing in innovations is crucial for Belgian banks to
quately, these 4 innovations combined are estimated to stay competitive in the future. It is not unlikely for in-
have the ability to increase ROE by 1.9 ppt. over the next creased profitability to at least partially be redistributed
3-5 years and by 5 ppt. in the next 10 years. Consequent- to end customers in the long run due to competitive
ly, having a clear strategy on how to (further) leverage pressure between banks. As a result, banks will need to
these innovations should be a top priority for Belgian act on several fronts. First, quick wins can be realized in
banks. selected departments and processes through the imple-
That said, competition from non-traditional players will mentation of RPA. Second, Belgian banks can capitalize
increase, putting pressure on banks' market share and on past investments and use digital banking and big
margins. Open banking, potentially combined with the data to both reduce costs and improve revenues. Third,
entry of Big Techs into banking services, will be the blockchain and AI do require substantial investments
main driver of this increased competition. Big Techs but can offer major improvement potential. They repre-
possess large quantities of customer data and have easy sent long-term strategic priorities. On the negative side,
access to end customers, putting them in the perfect po- open banking brings uncertainty and poses a potential
sition to start offering B2C banking services. Players like major threat for banks. Here, cooperation between
Google have already taken their first steps in this direc- banks, cross-fertilization with FinTechs and high cus-
tion and social media providers like Facebook could eas- tomer loyalty are clear assets for Belgian banks. Given
ily offer services like P2P payments via their messenger careful positioning on the various innovations, we be-
functions. With Apple Pay and Android Pay, we are see- lieve these disruptions offer a real opportunity for Bel-
ing these players already entering the open banking gian banks, both within Belgium and within the Europe-
space and challenging banks in payment services. an banking landscape. B
16 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

B: Profitability impact and required investment of the innovations (short term and long term).

Short-term impact (3-5 years) Long-term impact (10 years)

ROE impact (ppt. increase) ROE impact (ppt. increase)

Digital banking

2.0%

AI
1.5%
Digital banking Big data

1.0%

AI

0.5%
Blockchain
Big data RPA
RPA

0.0%
Blockchain
P2P P2P

-0.5%

-1.0%
Open banking

-1.5%

Open banking

-2.0%
Future required investments Future required investments

ROE impact Quick wins Capitalizing on past investments Long-term strategic priorities Minor threat Major threat

Source: Roland Berger

 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 17

The roadmap to higher profits

Take the pulse
1 > Assess the ecosystem
> Identify potential partners

Choose your battles

2 > Determine impact on current business model
> Define 'Where to play?'

Experiment and collaborate

3 > Design & test use cases
> Build actionable strategies: 'How to win?'

Source: Roland Berger

Take the pulse – To unlock the full potential, banks aligned with the overall strategy and DNA of the bank.
should first feel the pulse of the ecosystem and Experiment and collaborate – Once the bank has
FinTech landscape. Banks very often have an internal determined its battlefield, it should start experiment-
focus, being large, complex organizations continuously ing with the technologies and collaborate with other
offering the same type of products to their clients. players to adopt the innovations. The bank can set up
Therefore, it is important to look outside the boundar- a team that has both an internal and an external view
ies of the organization and to be early and open to on all aspects of the considered innovations and that
collaborate with other players. An assessment of the can think and work outside the traditional bank
ecosystem, with a mapping of the different players, environment (sometimes also literally). This team
their key activities and the identification of who could should be able to work in an agile way to quickly build
be potential partners, is a first key step on the road to the necessary experience with the technologies,
adopting an innovation mindset to generate growth. collaborate with FinTechs or other partners from the
Choose your battles – Based on a good understanding ecosystem. To obtain fast results, prototypes can be
of the ecosystem and potential partners, the bank has to built that can be first tested by a group of beta-users
determine what the potential impact of the innovation is to incrementally improve the prototype and gradually
on the organization and choose the key focus areas evolve into a minimum viable product.
18 Roland Berger Focus – Turning risks into opportunities

Credits and copyright

WE WELCOME YOUR QUESTIONS, COMMENTS

AND SUGGESTIONS

AUTHORS CONTRIBUTORS

GRÉGOIRE TONDREAU The authors would like to thank Axel Böhlke,

Partner Felix Demyttenaere, Stephan Janssens, Kevin de Patoul,
+32 47 8979725 Andreea Petrisor and Simon Verstraete for their
gregoire.tondreau@rolandberger.com valuable contribution to this study.

FREDERICK VAN GYSEGEM, PhD

Senior Project Manager
+32 47 6446374
frederick.vangysegem@rolandberger.com

MARGOT DESSEYN
Consultant
+32 47 6446367
margot.desseyn@rolandberger.com

This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to any
information provided in this publication without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH
shall not be liable for any damages resulting from any use of the information contained in the publication.

© 2018 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

 Turning risks into opportunities – Roland Berger Focus 19

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