Hype Cycle For Artif 791179 NDX

Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2023
Published 19 July 2023 - ID G00791179 - 123 min read
By Analyst(s): Afraz Jaffri

Initiatives: Artificial Intelligence; Evolve Technology and Process Capabilities to Support
D&A
Generative artificial intelligence and ChatGPT have elevated AI

discussions to new levels, pushing interest to boardrooms and
heads of state alike. Data and analytics leaders must stay on top
of the trends and track the trajectory of innovations to create
credible cases for investment.
Additional Perspectives
■ Summary Translation: Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2023

(24 August 2023)
More on This Topic

This is part of an in-depth collection of research. See the collection:
■ 2023 Hype Cycles: Deglobalization, AI at the Cusp and Operational Sustainability
Analysis
What You Need to Know
Generative AI has had an impact like no other technology in the past decade. The
increased productivity for developers and knowledge workers, using systems like
ChatGPT, is very real and has caused organizations and industries to rethink their
business processes and the value of human resources.
In turn, the apparent abilities of generative AI systems have rekindled debates on the safe
usage of AI and whether artificial general intelligence can be achieved, or has even already
arrived. Current generative AI techniques are fallible, however, and many of the
innovations on this year’s Hype Cycle need to be put together in order to go beyond the
limitations and mitigate the risks.
Data and analytics (D&A) leaders must leverage this research to prepare their AI strategy
for the future and utilize technologies that offer high impact in the present.
Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 1 of 109
This research note is restricted to the personal use of linhtn16@fsoft.com.vn.

The Hype Cycle
Generative AI is dominating discussions on AI and has reached the Peak of Inflated
Expectations, together with foundation models, which have become bigger and exhibit
behaviors that display human-level performance on a variety of complex comprehension
tasks. The hype surrounding these models, often in news and media, generally focuses on
cherry-picked examples of output rather than a realistic assessment of their strengths and
weaknesses. There is still a large gap between the expected potential impact and actual
usage,
AI-related innovations that have moved past the peak and are entering the Trough of
Disillusionment include synthetic data, edge AI, ModelOps and knowledge graphs.
Knowledge graphs are the second biggest mover on the Hype Cycle and have been touted
as the solution to many of the problems with generative AI techniques, but still require
some work to become a mainstream technology.
Intelligent applications, cloud AI services, data labeling and annotation, and computer
vision are moving toward the Plateau of Productivity, all also expedited by generative AI
advancements.
To summarize, Gartner sees two sides to the generative AI movement on the path toward
more powerful AI systems:
The innovations that will be fueled by generative AI:
■ Autonomic systems
■ AI engineering
■ Data-centric AI
■ Composite AI
■ Operational AI systems
■ AGI
■ Prompt Engineering
■ Smart Robots
■ ModelOps

■ Edge AI
■ Synthetic data
■ Intelligent applications
■ Cloud AI services
■ Computer vision
The innovations that will fuel generative AI advancement:
■ First-principles AI
■ Neuro-symbolic AI
■ Multiagent systems
■ Causal AI
■ AI simulation
■ AI TRiSM
■ Responsible AI
■ Foundation models
■ Knowledge graphs
■ Data labeling and annotation

Figure 1: Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2023
The Priority Matrix

Compared with other Hype Cycles, the AI Hype Cycle has more innovations with benefit
ratings in the high to transformational categories, with no innovation having a benefit
rating of low or moderate.
Those innovations that deserve particular attention within the two- to five-year period to
mainstream adoption include generative AI and decision intelligence. Early adoption of
these innovations will lead to significant competitive advantage and ease the problems
associated with utilizing AI models within business processes.
Several innovations have a five- to 10-year period to mainstream adoption, and from
these, responsible AI and foundational models should already be applied with small-scale
projects to deliver immediate impact.
D&A leaders should balance the strategic exploration of high-value propositions with
those that do not require extensive engineering or data science proficiency, and that have
been commoditized as stand-alone applications and within packaged business solutions.
These innovations include computer vision, knowledge graphs, smart robots, intelligent
applications and AI cloud services.

Table 1: Priority Matrix for Artificial Intelligence, 2023
(Enlarged table in Appendix)
Off the Hype Cycle

The following innovations were dropped from this year’s Hype Cycle:
■ Natural language processing: This has been broken down into several technologies,
covered as part of Hype Cycle for Natural Language Technologies, 2023.
■ Digital ethics: This has been subsumed into responsible AI, which appears on this
Hype Cycle.
■ Deep learning: The AI Hype Cycle provides a view of technologies at a high level.
Specific machine learning techniques are covered as part of Hype Cycle for Data
Science and Machine Learning, 2023.

On the Rise
Autonomic Systems
Analysis By: Erick Brethenoux, Nick Jones, David Cearley
Benefit Rating: Transformational
Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience
Maturity: Embryonic
Definition:
Autonomic systems are self-managing physical or software systems, performing domain-

bounded tasks, that exhibit three fundamental characteristics: autonomy (execute their
own decisions and tasks autonomously without external assistance); learning (modify
their behavior and internal operations based on experience, changing conditions or goals);
agency (have a sense of their own internal state and purpose that guides how and what
they learn and enables them to act independently).
Why This Is Important
Autonomic systems are emerging as an important trend as they enable levels of business
adaptability, flexibility and agility that can’t be achieved with traditional AI techniques
alone. Their flexibility is valuable in situations where the operating environment is
unknown or unpredictable, and real-time monitoring and control aren’t practical. Their
learning ability is valuable in situations where a task can be learned even though there is
no well-understood algorithm to implement it.
Business Impact
Autonomic systems excel where:
■ Conventional automation applying composite AI techniques is inadequate, or using

fixed training data is impractical or not agile.
■ It is impractical to provide real-time human guidance, or training conditions can’t be

anticipated.
■ We cannot program the exact learning algorithm, but the task is continuously
learnable.

■ Continuously or rapidly changing tasks or environments make frequent retraining
and testing of ML systems too slow or costly.
Drivers
Autonomic systems are the culmination of a three-part trend:
■ Automated systems are a very mature concept. They perform well-defined tasks and
have fixed deterministic behavior (e.g., an assembly robot welding cars). The
Increasing number of use cases around automation using AI techniques is a strong
base for autonomous systems.
■ Autonomous systems go beyond simple automation to add independent behavior.

They may exhibit some degree of adaptive behavior, but are predominantly under
algorithmic control (e.g., self-driving cars or a Boston Dynamics’ Spot robot 1 that
has its overall route and goals set by a remote human operator but has substantial
local autonomy over how it achieves them). Adaptive AI capabilities are a necessary
foundation for autonomic systems and should accelerate the adoption of autonomic
systems.
■ Autonomic systems exhibit adaptive behavior through learning and self-modifying

algorithms (e.g., Ericsson has demonstrated the use of reinforcement learning and
digital twins to create an autonomic system that dynamically optimizes 5G network
performance. It learns from network behavior and local conditions and adjusts
software and physical network control parameters to optimize performance). This
trend is showing the feasibility of such systems and early learning about carefully
bounded autonomic systems will build trust in their capabilities to operate
independently.
Longer-term drivers include:
■ Autonomic behavior is a spectrum. For example, chatbots learn from internet

discussions; streaming services learn which content you like; delivery robots share
information about paths and obstructions to optimize fleet routes. The advantages
of systems that can learn and adapt their behavior will be compelling, and many
examples will involve physical devices.
■ Substantial academic research is underway on autonomics, which will result in more

widespread use.

Obstacles
■ Nondeterminism: Systems that continuously learn and adapt their behavior aren’t
predictable. This will pose challenges for employees and customers who may not
understand how and why a system performed as it did.
■ Immaturity: Skills in the area will be lacking until autonomics becomes more
mainstream. New types of professional services may be required.
■ Social concerns: Misbehavior, nondeterminism or lack of understanding could

generate public resistance when systems interact with people.
■ Digital ethics and safety: Autonomic systems will require architectures and
guardrails to prevent them from learning undesirable, dangerous, unethical or even
illegal behavior when no human is validating the system.
■ Legal liability: It may be difficult for the supplier of an autonomic system to take
total responsibility for its behavior because that will depend on the goals it has set,
its operating conditions and what it learned.
User Recommendations
■ Start by building experience with autonomous systems first to understand the

constraints and requirements (legal, technical and cultural) that the organization is
subjected to. Pilot autonomic technologies in cases where early adoption will deliver
agility and performance benefits in software or physical systems.
■ Manage risk in autonomic system deployments by analyzing the business, legal and
ethical consequences of deploying autonomic systems — which are partially
nondeterministic. Do so by creating a multidisciplinary task force.
■ Optimize the benefits of autonomic technologies by piloting them in situations, such

as complex and rapidly changing environments where early adoption will deliver
agility and performance benefits in either software or physical systems.
Sample Vendors
Adapdix; IBM; Latent AI; Playtika; Vanti
Gartner Recommended Reading
Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2022: Autonomic Systems

First-Principles AI
Analysis By: Erick Brethenoux, Svetlana Sicular
Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
First-principles AI (FPAI) (aka physics-informed AI) incorporates physical and analog

principles, governing laws and domain knowledge into AI models. In contrast, purely
digital AI models do not necessarily obey the fundamental governing laws of physical
systems and first principles — nor generalize well to scenarios on which they have not
been trained. FPAI extends AI engineering to complex system engineering and model-
based systems (like agent-based systems).
As AI expands in engineering and scientific use cases, it needs a stronger ability to model
problems and better represent their context. Digital-only AI solutions cannot generalize
well enough beyond training, limiting their adaptability. FPAI instills a more reliable
representation of the context and the physical reality, yielding more adaptive systems. A
better ability to abstract leads to reduced training time, improved data efficiency, better
generalization and greater physical consistency.
Business Impact
Physically consistent and scientifically sound AI models can significantly improve

applicability, especially in engineering use cases (using IoT data). FPAI helps train models
with fewer data points and accelerates the training process, helping models converge
faster to optimal solutions. It improves the generalizability of models to make reliable
predictions for unseen scenarios, including applicability to nonstationary systems, as well
as enhances transparency and interpretability to make models more trustworthy.

Drivers
■ FPAI approaches instill a more flexible representation of the context and conditions
in which systems operate, allowing software developers to build more adaptive
systems. Traditional business modeling approaches have been brittle. This is
because the digital building blocks making up solutions cannot generalize well
enough beyond their initial training data, therefore limiting the adaptability of those
solutions.
■ FPAI approaches provide additional physical knowledge representations, such as

partial differential equations to guide or bound AI models. Traditional AI techniques,
particularly in the machine learning family, have been confronted with severe
limitations — especially for causality and dependency analysis, admissible values,
context flexibility and memory retention mechanisms. Asset-centric industries have
already started leveraging FPAI in physical prototyping, predictive maintenance or
composite materials analysis, in conjunction with augmented reality
implementations.
■ Complex systems like climate models, large-scale digital twins and complex health
science problems are particularly challenging to model. Composite AI approaches
provide more concrete answers and manageable solutions to these problems, but
their engineering remains a significant challenge. FPAI provides more immediate
answers to these problems.
■ First principles knowledge simplify and enrich AI approaches by defining problem

and solution boundaries, reducing the scope of traditionally brute force approach
employed by ML; for example, known trajectories of physical objects simplify AI-
enabled sky monitoring. First-principles-based semantics reveal deepfakes.
■ The need for more robust and adaptable business simulation systems will also
promote the adoption of FPAI approaches. With a better range of context
modelization and more accurate knowledge representation techniques, simulations
will be more reliable and account for a wider range of possible scenarios — all better
anchored in reality.

Obstacles
■ From a diagnostic perspective, the development of systematic tests and

standardized evaluation for these models across benchmark datasets and problems
could slow down the adoption of FPAI capabilities.
■ Computationally, the scaling of the training, testing and deployment of complex FPAI
models on large datasets in an efficient manner will also be an issue.
■ Resourcewise, collaboration across many diverse communities (physicists,

mathematicians, computer scientists, statisticians, AI experts and domain scientists)
will also be a challenge.
■ Brute force approach is prevalent in AI, and is easy to implement for data scientists,
while first principles require additional fundamental knowledge of a subject, calling
for a multidisciplinary team.
■ Set realistic development objectives by identifying errors that cannot be reduced

and discrepancies that cannot be addressed, including data quality.
■ Encourage reproducible and verifiable models starting with small-scoped problems;

complex systems (in the scientific sense of the term) are generally good candidates
for this approach.
■ Enforce standards for testing accuracy and physical consistency for physics and
first-principles-based models of the relevant domain, while characterizing sources of
uncertainty.
■ Promote model-consistent training for FPAI models and train models with data
characteristics representative of the downstream application, such as noise, sparsity
and incompleteness.
■ Quantify generalizability in terms of how performance degrades with degree of

extrapolation to unseen initial and boundary conditions and scenarios.
■ Ensure relevant roles and education in a multidisciplinary AI team (with domain

expertise), so the team can develop the most effective and verifiable solution.
Sample Vendors
Abzu; IntelliSense.io; MathWorks; NNAISENSE; NVIDIA

Innovation Insight: AI Simulation
Innovation Insight for Composite AI
Go Beyond Machine Learning and Leverage Other AI Approaches
Innovation Insight: Causal AI
Predicts 2023: Simulation Combined With Advanced AI Techniques Will Drive Future AI
Investments
Multiagent Systems
Analysis By: Leinar Ramos, Anthony Mullen, Pieter den Hamer
Benefit Rating: High
Maturity: Embryonic
Definition:
A multiagent system (MAS) is a type of AI system composed of multiple, independent (but

interactive) agents, each capable of perceiving their environment and taking actions.
Agents can be AI models, software programs, robots and other computational entities.
Multiple agents can work toward a common goal that goes beyond the ability of
individual agents, with increased adaptability and robustness.
Current AI is focused on the creation of individual agents built for specific use cases,
limiting the potential business value of AI to simpler problems that can be solved by
single monolithic models. The combined application of multiple autonomous agents can
tackle complex tasks that individual agents cannot, while creating more adaptable,
scalable and robust solutions. It is also able to succeed in environments where
decentralized decision making is required.
Business Impact
Multiagent systems can be used in:

■ Robotics: Swarms of robots and drones for warehouse optimization, search and
rescue, environment monitoring, and other use cases
■ Generative AI: Orchestrating large language model agents for complex tasks
■ Energy and utilities: Smart grid optimization and load balancing
■ Supply Chain: Optimizing scheduling, planning, routing, traffic signal control and
supply chain optimization
■ Telecom: Network optimization and fault detection
■ Healthcare: Using agents to model actors (individuals, households, professionals) in

a complex healthcare ecosystem
Drivers
■ Generative AI: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly augmented with
additional capabilities, such as tools and internal memory, to make them better
agents. Assembling and combining different LLM-based agents is increasing the
interest in multiagent systems.
■ Increased decision making complexity: AI is increasingly used in real-world

engineering problems containing complex systems, where large networks of
interacting parts exhibit emergent behavior that cannot be easily predicted. The
decentralized nature of multiagent systems makes them more resilient and
adaptable to complex decision making.
■ Simulation and multiagent reinforcement learning: Advances in the realism and

performance of simulation engines, as well as the use of new multiagent
reinforcement learning techniques, allow for the training of multiagent AI systems in
simulation environments, which can then be deployed in the real world.

Obstacles
■ Training complexity: Multiagent systems are typically harder to train and build than
individual agents. These systems can exhibit emergent behavior that is hard to
predict in advance, which increases the need for robust training and testing. There
might be, for example, conflicting objectives and interactions between agents that
create undesirable behavior.
■ Limited adoption and readiness: Despite its benefits, the application of multiagent
systems to real-world problems is not yet widespread, which creates a lack of
enterprise awareness and readiness to implement. Business partners might struggle
to understand why a multiagent simulation is required.
■ Specialized skills required: Building and deploying multiagent systems requires

specialized skills beyond traditional AI skills. In particular, the use of reinforcement
learning and simulation environments are typically required.
■ Fragmented vendor landscape: A fragmented vendor landscape inhibits customer

adoption and engagement.
■ Use multiagent systems for complex problems that require decentralized decision
making and cannot be solved by single-agent AI models. This includes problems
with changing environments where agents need to adapt and problems where a
diverse set of agents with different expertise can be combined to accomplish a goal.
■ Invest in the use of simulation technologies for AI training, as simulation is the

primary environment to build and test multiagent systems.
■ Identify areas in your organization where multiagent systems can provide an

advantage over single-agent AI development. Prioritize initial experiments based on
feasibility and potential value.
■ Educate your data science teams on multiagent systems, how this differs from
single-agent AI design, and what are some of the available techniques to train and
build these systems, such as reinforcement learning.
Sample Vendors
Ansys; Cosmo Tech; FLAME GPU; MathWorks; The AnyLogic Company

Neuro-Symbolic AI
Analysis By: Erick Brethenoux, Afraz Jaffri
Maturity: Embryonic
Definition:
Neuro-symbolic AI is a form of composite AI that combines machine learning methods

and symbolic systems (for example, knowledge graphs) to create more robust and
trustworthy AI models. This combination allows statistical patterns to be combined with
explicitly defined rules and knowledge to give AI systems the ability to better represent,
reason and generalize concepts. This approach provides a reasoning infrastructure for
solving a wider range of business problems more effectively.
Neuro-symbolic AI is important because it addresses limitations in current AI systems,

such as incorrect output (hallucinations in large language models [LLMs]), generalization
to a variety of tasks and explaining the steps that led to an output. This leads to more
powerful, versatile and interpretable AI solutions and allows AI systems to tackle more
complex tasks with humanlike reasoning.
Business Impact
Neuro-symbolic AI will have an impact on the efficiency, adaptability and reliability of AI

systems used across business processes. The integration of logic and multiple reasoning
mechanisms brings down the need for ever larger ML models and their supporting
infrastructure. These systems will rely less on the processing of huge amounts of data,
making AI agile and resilient. Decision making can be augmented and automated using
neuro-symbolic approaches with less risk of unintended consequences.

Drivers
■ Limitations of AI models that rely purely on machine learning techniques that focus
on correlation over understanding and reasoning. The newest generation of LLMs is
well-known for its tendency to give factually incorrect answers or produce
unexpected results.
■ The need for explanation and interpretability of AI outputs that are especially
important in the regulated industry use cases and in systems that use private data.
■ The need to move toward semantics over syntax in systems that deal with real-world
entities in order to ground meaning to words and terms in specific domains.
■ The set of tools available to combine different types of AI models is increasing and
becoming easier to use for developers, data scientists and end users. The dominant
approach is to chain together results from different models (composite AI) rather
than using single models that are neuro-symbolic in nature.
■ The integration of multiple reasoning mechanisms necessary to provide agile AI

systems eventually leading to adaptive AI systems.
Obstacles
■ Most neuro-symbolic AI methods and techniques are being developed in academia

or industry research labs. Despite the increase in tools available, there are still limited
implementations in business or enterprise settings.
■ There are no agreed-upon techniques for implementing neuro-symbolic AI and

disagreements continue between researchers and practitioners on the effectiveness
of combining approaches; despite the emergence of real-world use cases.
■ The commercial and investment trajectory for AI startups allocates almost all capital
to deep learning approaches leaving only those willing to bet on the future to invest
in neuro-symbolic AI development.
■ Popular media and academic conferences do not give as much exposure to the
neuro-symbolic AI movement as compared to other approaches, for now.

■ Adopt composite AI approaches when building AI systems by utilizing a range of

techniques that increase the robustness and reliability of AI models. Neuro-symbolic
AI approaches will fit into a composite AI architecture.
■ Dedicate time to learning and applying neuro-symbolic AI approaches by identifying

use cases that can benefit from these approaches.
■ Invest in data architecture that can leverage the building blocks for neuro-symbolic
AI techniques such as knowledge graphs and agent-based techniques.
Sample Vendors
Google Deepmind; Elemental Cognition; IBM; Microsoft; RelationalAI; Wolfram|Alpha
Investments
AI Engineering
Analysis By: Kevin Gabbard, Soyeb Barot
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
AI engineering is foundational for enterprise delivery of AI solutions at scale. The

discipline unifies DataOps, MLOps and DevOps pipelines to create coherent enterprise
development, delivery (hybrid, multicloud, edge), and operational (streaming, batch) AI-
based systems.

The potential value of AI has led to huge demand to rapidly launch market-ready AI
solutions. This is a big engineering challenge. Most enterprises still struggle to move
individual pilots to production, much less operate portfolios of AI solutions at scale.
Establishing consistent AI pipelines enables enterprises to develop, deploy, adapt and
maintain AI models (statistical, machine learning, generative, deep learning, graph,
linguistic and rule-based) consistently, regardless of environment.
Business Impact
AI engineering enables organizations to establish and grow high-value portfolios of AI

solutions. Most AI development is currently limited by significant operational bottlenecks.
With AI engineering methods — DataOps, ModelOps and DevOps — it is possible to deploy
models into production in a structured, repeatable factory-model framework to realize
significant value.
Drivers
■ Intense hype surrounding generative AI solutions is increasing the overall demand

for AI-powered solutions.
■ DataOps, ModelOps and DevOps provide best practices for moving artifacts through
the AI development life cycle. Standardization across data and model pipelines
accelerates the delivery of AI solutions.
■ The elimination of traditional siloed approaches to data management and AI

engineering reduces impedance mismatch across data ingestion, processing, model
engineering and deployment, which inevitably drift once the AI models are in
production.
■ AI engineering enables discoverable, composable and reusable AI artifacts (data

catalogs, code repositories, reference architectures, feature stores, model stores, etc.)
across the enterprise context. These are essential for scaling AI enterprisewide.
■ AI engineering makes it possible to orchestrate solutions across hybrid, multicloud,

edge AI or IoT.
■ Broader use of foundational platforms provides initial success at scaling the

production of AI initiatives with existing data, analytics and governance frameworks.

Obstacles
■ Sponsorship for foundational enterprisewide AI initiatives is unclear.
■ AI engineering requires simultaneous development of pipelines across domains.
■ AI engineering requires integrating full-featured solutions with select tools, including

open-source technologies, to address enterprise architecture gaps with minimal
functional overlap. These include gaps around ETL stores, feature stores, model
stores, model monitoring, pipeline observability and governance.
■ AI engineering requires cloud maturity and possible rearchitecting, or the ability to

integrate data and AI model pipelines across deployment contexts. Potential
complexity and management of analytical and AI workloads alongside costs may
deter organizations that are in the initial phases of AI initiatives.
■ Enterprises often seek “unicorn” experts to productize AI platforms. Few vendors

provide AI engineering capabilities, making such skills hard to find. Enterprises often
have to build and support these environments on their own.
■ Establish a leadership mandate for enterprisewide foundational AI initiatives.
■ Maximize business value from ongoing AI initiatives by establishing AI engineering

practices that streamline the data, model and implementation pipelines.
■ Simplify data and analytics pipelines by identifying the capabilities required to

operationalize end-to-end AI platforms and build AI-specific toolchains.
■ Use point solutions sparingly and only to plug feature/capability gaps in fully
featured DataOps, MLOps, ModelOps and PlatformOps tools.
■ Develop AI model management and governance practices that align model

performance, human behavior and delivery of business value. Make it easier for
users to adopt AI models.
■ Leverage cloud service provider environments as foundational to build AI

engineering. At the same time, rationalize your data, analytics and AI portfolios as
you migrate to the cloud.
■ Upskill data engineering and platform engineering teams to adopt tools and
processes that drive continuous integration/continuous development for AI artifacts.

Sample Vendors
Amazon Web Services; Dataiku; DataRobot; Domino Data Lab; Google; HPE; IBM; Iguazio;
Microsoft
Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2022: AI Engineering
Demystifying XOps: DataOps, MLOps, ModelOps, AIOps and Platform Ops for AI
A CTO’s Guide to Top Artificial Intelligence Engineering Practices
Cool Vendors in Enterprise AI Operationalization and Engineering
Cool Vendors in AI Core Technologies — Scaling AI in the Enterprise
AI Simulation
Analysis By: Leinar Ramos, Anthony Mullen, Pieter den Hamer, Jim Hare
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
AI simulation is the combined application of AI and simulation technologies to jointly

develop AI agents and the simulated environments in which they can be trained, tested
and sometimes deployed. It includes both the use of AI to make simulations more efficient
and useful, and the use of a wide range of simulation models to develop more versatile
and adaptive AI systems.
Increased complexity in decision making is driving demand for both AI and simulation.
However, current AI faces challenges, as it is brittle to change and requires a lot of data.
Conversely, realistic simulations can be expensive and difficult to build and run. To
resolve these challenges, a growing approach is to combine AI and simulation: Simulation
is used to make AI more robust and compensate for a lack of training data, and AI is used
to make simulations more efficient and realistic.

Business Impact
AI simulation can bring:
■ Increased AI value by broadening its use to cases where data is scarce, using
simulation to generate synthetic data (for example, robotics and self-driving cars)
■ Greater efficiency by leveraging AI to decrease the time and cost to create and use
complex and realistic simulations
■ Greater robustness and adaptability by using simulation to generate diverse

scenarios to increase AI performance in uncertain environments
■ Decreased technical debt by reusing simulation environments to train future AI

models

Drivers
■ Limited availability of AI training data is increasing the need for synthetic data
techniques, such as simulation. Simulation is uniquely positioned among synthetic
data alternatives in its ability to generate diverse datasets that are not constrained
by a fixed “seed” dataset to generate synthetic data from.
■ Advances in capabilities are making simulation increasingly useful for AI.

Simulation capabilities have been rapidly improving, driven both by increased
computing performance and more efficient techniques. This has made simulation
environments a key part of the training pipeline of some of the most advanced real-
world AI use cases, such as robotics and self-driving cars.
■ The growing complexity of decision making is increasing the interest in AI

simulation. Simulation is able to generate diverse “corner case” scenarios that do
not appear frequently in real-world data, but that are still crucial to train and test AI to
perform well on uncertain environments. As the complexity of the environments and
decision making goes up, the ability to build AI systems that are robust becomes
more important.
■ Increased technical debt in AI is driving the need for the reusable environments
that simulation provides. Current AI focuses on building short-lived AI models with
limited reuse, accumulating technical debt. Organizations will increasingly deploy
hundreds of AI models, which requires a shift in focus toward building persistent,
reusable environments where many AI models can be trained, customized and
validated. Simulation environments are ideal since they are reusable, scalable, and
enable the training of many AI models at once.
■ The growing sophistication of simulation drives the use of AI to make it more

efficient. Modern simulations are resource-intensive. This is driving the use of AI to
accelerate simulation, typically by employing AI models that can replace parts of the
simulation without running resource-intensive step-by-step numerical computations.

Obstacles
■ Gap between simulation and reality: Simulations can only emulate — not fully
replicate — real-world systems. This gap will reduce as simulation capabilities
improve, but it will remain a key factor. Given this gap, AI models trained in
simulation might not have the same performance once they are deployed:
differences in the simulation training dataset versus real-world data can impact
models’ accuracy.
■ Complexity of AI simulation pipelines: The combination of AI and simulation

techniques can result in more complex pipelines that are harder to test, validate,
maintain and troubleshoot.
■ Limited readiness to adopt AI simulation: A lack of awareness among AI

practitioners about leveraging simulation capabilities can prevent organizations
from implementing an AI simulation approach.
■ Fragmented vendor market: The AI and simulation markets are fragmented, with
few vendors offering combined AI simulation solutions, potentially slowing down the
deployment of this capability.
■ Complement AI with simulation to optimize business decision making or to

overcome a lack of real-world data by offering a simulated environment for synthetic
data generation or reinforcement learning.
■ Complement simulation with AI by applying deep learning to accelerate simulation

and generative AI to augment simulation.
■ Create synergies between AI and simulation teams, projects and solutions to enable
a next generation of more adaptive solutions for ever-more complex use cases.
Incrementally build a common foundation of more generalized and complementary
models that are reused across different use cases, business circumstances and
ecosystems.
■ Prepare for the combined use of AI, simulation and other relevant techniques, such
as graphs, natural language processing or geospatial analytics, by prioritizing
vendors that offer platforms that integrate different AI techniques (composite AI), as
well as simulation.

Sample Vendors
Altair; Ansys; Cosmo Tech; Epic Games; MathWorks; Microsoft; NVIDIA; Rockwell
Automation; The AnyLogic Company; Unity
Investments
Cool Vendors in Simulation for AI
Artificial General Intelligence

Analysis By: Pieter den Hamer
Maturity: Embryonic
Definition:
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the (currently hypothetical) intelligence of a machine

that can accomplish any intellectual task that a human can perform. AGI is a trait
attributed to future autonomous AI agents that can achieve goals in a wide range of real
or virtual environments at least as effectively as humans can. AGI is also called “strong
AI.”
As AI becomes more sophisticated and powerful, with recent great advances in generative
AI in particular, a growing group of people see AGI as no longer purely hypothetical.
Improving our understanding of at least the concept of AGI is critical for steering and
regulating AI’s further evolution. It is also important to manage realistic expectations and
to avoid prematurely anthropomorphizing AI. However, should AGI become real, its impact
on the economy, (geo)politics, culture and society cannot be underestimated.

Business Impact
In the short term, organizations must know that hype about AGI exists today among many
stakeholders, stoking fears and unrealistic expectations about current AI’s true
capabilities. This AGI anticipation is already accelerating the emergence of more AI
regulations and affects people’s trust and willingness to apply AI today. In the long term,
AI continues to grow in power and, with or without AGI, will increasingly impact
organizations, including the advent of machine customers and autonomous business.
Drivers
■ Recent great advances in applications of generative AI and the use of foundation

models and large language or multimodal models drive considerable hype about
AGI. These advances have been enabled largely by the massive scaling of deep
learning, as well as by the availability of huge amounts of data and compute power.
To further evolve AI toward AGI, however, current AI will need to be complemented by
other (partially new) approaches, such as knowledge graphs, multiagent systems,
simulations, evolutionary algorithms, causal AI, composite AI and likely other
innovations yet unknown.
■ Vendors such as Google, IBM, NNAISENSE, OpenAI and Vicarious are actively
researching the field of AGI.
■ Humans’ innate desire to set lofty goals is also a major driver for AGI. At one point in
history, humans wanted to fly by mimicking bird flight. Today, airplane travel is a
reality. The inquisitiveness of the human mind, taking inspiration from nature and
from itself, is not going to fizzle out.
■ People’s tendency to anthropomorphize nonliving entities also applies to AI-powered

machines. This has been fueled by the humanlike responses of ChatGPT and similar
AI, as well as AI being able to pass several higher-level education exams. In addition,
more complex AI systems display behavior that has not been explicitly programmed.
Among other reasons, this results from the dynamic interactions between many
system components. As a result, AI is increasingly attributed with humanlike
characteristics, such as understanding. Although many philosophers,
neuropsychologists and other scientists consider this attribution as going too far or
being highly uncertain, it has created a sense that AGI is within reach or at least is
getting closer. In turn, this has triggered massive media attention, several calls for
regulation to manage the risks of AGI and a great appetite to invest in AI for
economic, societal and geopolitical reasons.

Obstacles
■ The current issues regarding unreliability, hallucinations, lack of transparency and

lack of reasoning or logic capabilities in generative AI-powered chatbots (one
possible direction toward AGI), are not easy to overcome with the intrinsically
probabilistic approach of deep learning. More data or more compute power for ever
bigger models are unlikely to resolve these issues. Better or curated training data,
improved prompt interpretation and engineering or more domain-specific foundation
models may help to improve reliability, but not sufficiently.
■ There is little scientific consensus about what “intelligence” and related terminology
like “understanding” actually mean, let alone how AGI should be exactly defined and
interpreted. Flamboyant representations of AGI in science fiction create a disconnect
from reality. Scientific understanding about human intelligence is still challenged by
the enormous complexity of the human brain and mind. Several breakthrough
discoveries are still needed before human intelligence is properly understood at last.
This in turn is foundational to the “design” or at least validation of AGI, even when
AGI will emerge in a nonhuman, nonbrainlike form. Moreover, once AGI is understood
and designed, further technological innovations will likely be needed to actually
implement AGI. For these reasons, strong AI is unlikely to emerge in the near future.
This may be sooner if one would settle for a more narrow, watered-down version of
AGI in which AI is able to perform not all but only a few tasks at the same level as
humans. This would no longer really be AGI as defined here.
■ If AGI materializes, it is likely to lead to the emergence of autonomous actors that, in

time, will be attributed with full self-learning, agency, identity and perhaps even
morality. This will open up a bevy of legal rights of AI and trigger profound ethical
and even religious discussions. Moreover, the (anticipated) emergence of AGI and
the risk of human life being negatively impacted by AGI, from job losses to a new, AI-
triggered arms race and more, may lead to a serious backlash and possibly
regulatory bans on the development of AGI.
■ The anticipated possible emergence of AGI urges governments to take measures

before its risks can no longer be mitigated. Regulations to ban or control AGI are
likely to emerge in the near future.

■ Today, people may be either overly concerned about future AI replacing humanity or
overly excited about current AI’s capabilities and impact on business. Both cases will
hamper a realistic and effective approach toward using AI today. To mitigate this
risk, engage with stakeholders to address their concerns and create or maintain
realistic expectations.
■ Stay apprised of scientific and innovative breakthroughs that may indicate the
possible emergence of AGI. Meanwhile, keep applying current AI to learn, reap its
benefits and develop practices for its responsible use.
■ Although AGI is not a reality now, current AI already poses significant risks regarding
bias, reliability and other areas. Adopt emerging AI regulations and promote internal
AI governance to manage current and emerging future risks of AI.
Sample Vendors
AGI Innovations; Google; IBM; Kimera Systems; Microsoft; New Sapience; NNAISENSE;
OpenAI; Vicarious
The Future of AI: Reshaping Society
Innovation Insight for Generative AI
Applying AI — Key Trends and Futures
Innovation Insight for Artificial Intelligence Foundation Models
Causal AI
Analysis By: Pieter den Hamer, Leinar Ramos, Ben Yan
Maturity: Emerging

Definition:
Causal artificial intelligence (AI) identifies and utilizes cause-and-effect relationships to go

beyond correlation-based predictive models and toward AI systems that can prescribe
actions more effectively and act more autonomously. It includes different techniques,
such as causal graphs and simulation, that help uncover causal relationships to improve
decision making.
AI’s ultimate value comes from helping people take better actions. Machine learning (ML)
makes predictions based on statistical relationships (correlations), regardless of whether
these are causal. This approach is fine for prediction, but predicting an outcome is not the
same as understanding what causes it and how to improve it. Causal AI is crucial when
we need to be more prescriptive to determine the best actions to influence specific
outcomes. Causal AI techniques help make AI more autonomous, explainable, robust and
efficient.
Business Impact
Causal AI leads to:
■ Greater decision augmentation and autonomy in AI systems by estimating

intervention effects
■ Greater efficiency by adding domain knowledge to bootstrap AI models with smaller

datasets
■ Better explainability by capturing easy-to-interpret cause-and-effect relationships
■ More robustness and adaptabilty by leveraging causal relationships that remain

valid in changing environments
■ The ability to extract causal knowledge with less costly and time-consuming
experiments
■ Reduced bias in AI systems by making causal links more explicit

Drivers
■ Analytics demand is shifting from predictive (what is likely to happen) to more

prescriptive (what should be done) capabilities. Making accurate predictions will
remain key, but a causal understanding of how to affect predicted outcomes will be
increasingly important.
■ AI systems increasingly need to act autonomously to generate business value,

particularly for time-sensitive and complex use cases, where human intervention is
not feasible. This autonomy will only be possible by AI understanding what impact
actions will have and how to make effective interventions.
■ Limited data availability for certain use cases is pushing organizations toward
more data-efficient techniques like causal AI. Causal AI leverages human domain
knowledge of cause-and-effect relationships to bootstrap AI models in small-data
situations.
■ The growing complexity of use cases and environments where AI is applied requires
more robust AI techniques. Causal structure changes much more slowly than
statistical correlations, making causal AI more robust and adaptable in fast-
changing environments. The volatility of the last few years has exposed the
brittleness of correlation-based AI models across industries. These models have
struggled to adapt because they were trained under a very different context.
■ The need for greater AI trust and explainability is driving interest in models that are
more intuitive to humans. Causal AI techniques, such as causal graphs, make it
possible to be explicit about causes and explain models in terms that humans
understand.
■ The next step in AI requires causal AI. Current deep learning models and, in
particular, generative AI have limitations in terms of their reliability and ability to
reason. A composite AI approach that complements generative AI with causal AI —
in particular, causal knowledge graphs — offers a promising avenue to bring AI to a
higher level.

Obstacles
■ Causality is not trivial. Not every phenomenon is easy to model in terms of its
causes and effects. Causality might be unknown, regardless of AI use.
■ The quality of a causal AI model depends on its causal assumptions and on the
data used to build it. This data is susceptible to bias and imbalance. Just because a
model is causal doesn’t mean that it will outperform correlation-based ones.
■ Causal AI requires technical and domain expertise to properly estimate causal

effects. Building causal AI models is often more difficult than building correlation-
based predictive models, requiring active collaboration between domain experts and
AI experts.
■ AI experts might be unaware of causality methods. If AI experts are overly reliant on

data-driven models like ML, organizations could get pushback when looking to
implement causal AI.
■ The vendor landscape is nascent, and enterprise adoption is currently low. Clearly,
this represents a challenge when organizations are running initial causal AI pilots
and identifying specific use cases where causal AI is most relevant.
■ Acknowledge the limitations of correlation-based AI and ML approaches, which

focus on leveraging correlations and mostly ignore causality. These limitations also
apply to most generative AI techniques, including foundation models such as GPT-4.
■ Use causal AI when you require more augmentation and automation in decision
intelligence — i.e., when AI is needed not only to generate predictions, but also to
understand how to affect the predicted outcomes. Examples include customer
retention programs, marketing campaign allocation and financial portfolio
optimization, as well as smart robotics and autonomous systems.
■ Select different causal AI techniques depending on the complexity of the specific use
case. These include causal rules, causal graphs and Bayesian networks, simulation,
and ML for causal learning.
■ Educate your data science teams on causal AI. Explain the difference between
causal and correlation-based AI, and cover the range of techniques available to
incorporate causality.

Sample Vendors
Actable AI; causaLens; Causality Link; CML Insight; Geminos Software; IBM; Lucid.AI;
Qualcomm; SCALNYX; Xplain Data
Innovation Insight: Causal AI
Innovation Insight for Decision Intelligence Platforms
Building a Digital Future: Autonomic Business Operations
Case Study: Causal AI to Maximize the Efficiency of Business Investments (HDFC Bank)
Decision Intelligence
Analysis By: Erick Brethenoux
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
Decision intelligence (DI) is a practical discipline that advances decision making by

explicitly understanding and engineering how decisions are made and how outcomes are
evaluated, managed and improved via feedback.
The current hype around automated decision making and augmented intelligence, fueled
by AI techniques in decision making (including generative AI), is pushing DI toward the
Peak of Inflated Expectations. Recent crises have revealed the brittleness of business
processes. Reengineering those processes to be resilient, adaptable and flexible will
require the discipline brought by DI methods and techniques. A fast-emerging market (DI
platforms) is starting to provide resilient solutions for decision makers.

Business Impact
Decision intelligence helps:
■ Reduce technical debt and increase visibility. It improves the impact of business
processes by materially enhancing the sustainability of organizations’ decision
models based on the power of their relevance and the quality of their transparency,
making decisions more transparent and auditable.
■ Reduce the unpredictability of decision outcomes. It does so by properly capturing

and accounting for the uncertain factors in the business context and making
decision models more resilient.

Drivers
■ A dynamic and complex business environment, with an increasingly unpredictable

and uncertain pace of business. Two forces are creating a new market around
decision intelligence platforms (DIPs). The first is the combination of AI techniques
such as natural language processing, knowledge graphs and machine learning. The
second is the confluence of several technology clusters around composite AI, smart
business processes, insight engines, decision management and advanced
personalization platforms.
■ The need to curtail unstructured, ad hoc decisions that are siloed and disjointed.
Often uncoordinated, such decisions promote local optimizations at the expense of
global efficiency. This phenomenon happens from both an IT and a business
perspective.
■ Expanding collaboration between humans and machines. This collaboration,

supplemented by a lack of trust in technologies (such as AI), is increasingly
replacing tasks and promoting uneasiness from a human perspective. DI practices
promote transparency, interpretability, fairness, reliability and accountability of
decision models critical for the adoption of business-differentiating techniques.
■ Tighter regulations that are making risk management more prevalent. From privacy
and ethical guidelines to new laws and government mandates, it is becoming
difficult for organizations to fully understand the risk impacts of their decisions. DI
enables an explicit representation of decision models, reducing this risk.
■ Uncertainty regarding decision consistency across the organization. Lack of

explicit representation of decisions prevents proper harmonization of collective
decision outcomes. DI remedies this issue.
■ Emergence of software tools in the form of decision intelligence platforms. DIPs

will enable organizations to practically implement DI projects and strategies.
■ Generative AI. The advent of generative AI is accelerating the research and adoption
of composite AI models, which are the foundation of DIPs.

Obstacles
■ Fragmentation: Decision-making silos have created data, competencies and

technology clusters that are difficult to reconcile and that could slow down the
implementation of decision models.
■ Subpar operational structure: An inadequate organizational structure around

advanced techniques, such as the lack of an AI center of excellence, could impair DI
progress.
■ Lack of proper coordination between business units: The inability to impartially

reconsider critical decision flows within and across departments (also because of
fragmentation) diminishes the effectiveness of early DI efforts.
■ Lack of modeling in a wider context: In organizations that have focused almost

exclusively on technical skills, the other critical parts of human decision making —
psychological, social, economic and organizational factors — have gone
unaddressed.
■ Lack of AI literacy: Many organizations still suffer from a lack of understanding

when it comes to AI techniques. This AI illiteracy could slow down the development
of DI projects.

■ Promote the resiliency and sustainability of cross-organizational decisions by

building models using principles aimed at enhancing traceability, replicability,
pertinence and trustworthiness.
■ Improve the predictability and alignment of decision agents by simulating their

collective behavior while also estimating their global contribution versus local
optimization.
■ Develop staff expertise in traditional and emerging decision augmentation and

decision automation techniques, including predictive and prescriptive (optimization,
business rules) analytics. Upskill business analysts, and develop new roles, such as
decision engineer and decision steward.
■ Tailor the choice of decision-making technique to the particular requirements of

each decision situation by collaborating with subject matter experts, AI experts and
business process analysts.
■ Accelerate the development of DI projects by encouraging experimentation with

generative AI and expediting the deployment of composite AI solutions.
Reengineer Your Decision-Making Processes for More Relevant, Transparent and Resilient
Outcomes
How to Choose Your Best-Fit Decision Management Suite Vendor
AI Security: How to Make AI Trustworthy
Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2023: Adaptive AI
Composite AI
Analysis By: Erick Brethenoux, Pieter den Hamer

Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
Composite AI refers to the combined application (or fusion) of different AI techniques to

improve the efficiency of learning to broaden the level of knowledge representations.
Composite AI broadens AI abstraction mechanisms and, ultimately, provides a platform to
solve a wider range of business problems in a more effective manner.
Composite AI recognizes that no single AI technique is a silver bullet. Composite AI

currently aims to combine “connectionist” AI approaches, like machine learning (ML), with
“symbolic” and other AI approaches, like rule-based reasoning, graph analysis or
optimization techniques. The goal is to enable AI solutions that require less data and
energy to learn, embodying more abstraction mechanisms. Composite AI is at the center
of the generative AI and decision intelligence market emergence.
Business Impact
Composite AI offers two main benefits. First, it brings the power of AI to a broader group
of organizations that do not have access to large amounts of historical or labeled data
but possess significant human expertise. Second, it helps to expand the scope and quality
of AI applications (that is, more types of reasoning challenges can be embedded). Other
benefits, depending on the techniques applied, include better interpretability and resilience
and the support of augmented intelligence.

Drivers
■ ML-based AI techniques lead to insights that inform actions. Additionally, the most
appropriate actions can be further determined by combinations of rule-based and
optimization models — a combination often referred to as prescriptive analytics.
■ Small datasets, or the limited availability of data, have pushed organizations to

combine multiple AI techniques. Where raw historical data has been more scarce,
enterprises have started to complement it using additional AI techniques, such as
knowledge graphs and generative adversarial networks (GANs), to generate synthetic
data.
■ Combining AI techniques is much more effective than relying only on heuristics or a

fully data-driven approach. A heuristic or rule approach can be combined with a
deep learning model (for example, predictive maintenance). Rules coming from
human experts, or the application of physical/engineering model analysis, may
specify that certain sensor readings indicate inefficient asset operations. This can be
used as a feature to train a neural network to assess and predict the asset’s health,
also integrating causal AI capabilities.
■ Proliferation of computer vision and NLP solutions. In computer vision, (deep)

neural networks are used to identify or categorize people or objects in an image. This
output can be used to enrich or generate a graph, representing the image entities and
their relationships.
■ Agent-based modeling is the next wave of composite AI. A composite AI solution

can be composed of multiple agents, each representing an actor in the ecosystem.
Combining these agents into a “swarm” enables the creation of common situation
awareness, more global planning optimization, responsive scheduling and process
resilience.
■ The acceleration of generative AI. The advent of generative AI is accelerating the

research and adoption of composite AI models (through artifacts, process and
collaboration generations), which are the foundation of decision intelligence (DI)
platforms.

Obstacles
■ Lack of awareness and skills in leveraging multiple AI methods. This could prevent
organizations from considering the techniques particularly suited to solving specific
problem types.
■ Deploying ModelOps. The ModelOps domain (i.e., the operationalization of multiple

AI models, such as optimization models, rule models and graph models) remains an
art much more than a science. A robust ModelOps approach will be necessary to
efficiently govern composite AI environments and harmonize it with other disciplines,
such as DevOps and DataOps.
■ Trust and risk barriers. The AI engineering discipline is also starting to take shape,
but only mature organizations have started to apply its benefits in operationalizing
AI techniques. Security, ethical model behaviors, observability, model autonomy and
change management practices will have to be addressed across the combined AI
techniques.
■ Identify projects in which a fully data-driven, ML-only approach is inefficient or ill-

fitted. For example, in cases when enough data is not available or when the pattern
cannot be represented through current ML models.
■ Capture domain knowledge and human expertise to provide context for data-driven
insights by applying decision management with business rules and knowledge
graphs, in conjunction with ML and/or causal models.
■ Combine the power of ML, image recognition or natural language processing with
graph analytics to add higher-level, symbolic and relational intelligence.
■ Extend the skills of ML experts, or recruit/upskill additional AI experts, to also cover

graph analytics, optimization or other techniques for composite AI. For rules and
heuristics, consider knowledge engineering skills, as well as emerging skills such as
prompt engineering.
■ Accelerate the development of DI projects by encouraging experimentation with

generative AI, which will in turn accelerate the deployment of composite AI solutions.
Sample Vendors
ACTICO; Aera Technology; FICO; Frontline Systems; IBM; Indico Data; Peak; SAS

How to Use Machine Learning, Business Rules and Optimization in Decision Management
Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2022: AI Engineering
Innovation Insight for Decision Intelligence
How to Choose Your Best-Fit Decision Management Suite Vendor
Data-Centric AI
Analysis By: Svetlana Sicular
Maturity: Embryonic
Definition:
Data-centric AI is an approach that focuses on enhancing and enriching training data to

drive better AI outcomes, as opposed to a model-centric approach wherein AI outcomes
are driven by model tuning. Data-centric AI also addresses data quality, privacy and
scalability. Quality data is crucial for generative AI to perform well on specific tasks.
Examples of data-centric AI include knowledge graphs, feature stores, synthetic data, data
labeling and annotation, and federated ML.
The AI community is facing a bifurcation of data-centric and model-centric AI, because

data quality, curation and consistency often improve AI accuracy more efficiently than
tweaking models. Data-centric AI disrupts classical data management and prevalent
model-centric data science by addressing AI-specific data considerations to improve the
quality of models on an ongoing basis. Data-centric AI is becoming especially important
with the rise of pretrained off-the-shelf models.

Business Impact
Organizations that invest in AI at scale will shake up their data management practices
and capabilities to preserve the evergreen classical ideas and extend them to AI in two
ways:
■ Add capabilities necessary for convenient AI development by an AI-focused audience

that is not familiar with data management, such as bias mitigation and data drift
monitoring.
■ Use AI to improve and augment evergreen classics of data governance, persistence,

integration and data quality.
Drivers
■ Models, especially for generative AI, increasingly come from the vendors, rather
than being delivered in-house. Data is becoming the main means for enterprises to
get value from these pretrained models.
■ Most commonly delivered AI solutions depend on data availability, quality and

understanding, not just AI model building. Many enterprises attempt to tackle AI
without considering AI-specific data management issues. The importance of data
management in AI is often underestimated, so data management solutions are now
being adjusted for AI needs.
■ Classical data management is ripe for disruption, to support AI efforts. Rapid

progress of AI poses new challenges in organizing and managing the data for AI. We
expect a cycle of augmented data management techniques that are better suited for
meeting the data requirements of AI. Data ecosystems on the foundation of data
fabric indicate the beginning of this new cycle.
■ Data management capabilities, practices and tools greatly benefit AI development

and deployment.The AI community invents new data-centric approaches and it also
opens up to data management innovations like data fabric and lakehouse.
■ New data management solutions mitigate AI-amplified bias originating in data

interpretation, labeling and human actions recorded in the data. Bias mitigation is an
acute, AI-specific problem. AI bias is the use case in data management calling to
determine how to structure, analyze and prepare data.

Obstacles
■ Data-centric AI is disconnected from data management. The AI community remains

oblivious to data management capabilities, practices and tools that can greatly
benefit AI development and deployment. Traditional data management also ignores
the AI-specific considerations, such as data bias, labeling and drift; this is changing
but slowly.
■ Even though the data side of AI reflects understanding of the problem, it is less
exciting. It includes tasks such as preparing datasets and developing a clear
understanding of why the data was collected a certain way, what the data means
and what biases exist in the data.
■ Responsible AI is necessary to ask all the right questions about the data and the
solution. These are AI-specific data practices that many enterprises want to solve
through tooling, rather than governance.
■ Data management activities don’t end once the model has been developed.
Deployment considerations and ongoing drift monitoring require dedicated data
management activities and practices.
■ Formalize data-centric AI and model-centric data as part of your data

management strategy. Implement active metadata and data fabric as foundational
components of this strategy. Combine classical and new capabilities to meet AI
needs. Establish roles and responsibilities to manage data in support of AI.
■ Approach model development in a data-centric way due to the dependency of AI

models on quality data. Diversify data, models and people to ensure AI value and
ethics.
■ Leverage data management expertise, AI engineering, DataOps and MLOps

approaches to support the AI life cycle. Include data management requirements
when deploying models. Develop data monitoring and data governance metrics to
ensure that your AI models produce the correct output.
■ Enforce policies on data fitness for AI. Define and measure minimum data
standards (such as formats, tools and metrics) for AI early on, to prevent
reconciliation of multiple data approaches when taking AI to scale.

Sample Vendors
Databricks; Explorium; Landing AI; Mobilewalla; MOSTLY AI; Pinecone Systems; Protopia
AI; Scale AI; Snorkel AI; YData
Cool Vendors in Data-Centric AI
Data Science and Machine Learning Trends You Can’t Ignore
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AI/ML Models
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Operational AI Systems
Analysis By: Chirag Dekate, Soyeb Barot, Sumit Agarwal
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
Operational AI systems (OAISys) enable orchestration, automation and scaling of

production-ready and enterprise-grade AI, comprising ML, DNNs and Generative AI. OAISys
integrates DataOps, ModelOps, MLOps and deployment services to deliver enterprise-
grade governance, including reusability, reproducibility, release management, lineage, risk
and compliance management, and security. It also unifies development, delivery (hybrid,
multicloud, IoT) and operational (streaming, batch) contexts.
OAISys can help enterprises:
■ Standardize, govern and automate AI engineering and deployment technologies, and

accelerate productization of AI.

■ Eliminate system integration friction and impedance mismatch across DataOps,
ModelOps, MLOps, deployment and governance platforms.
■ Scale AI initiatives by enabling orchestration across hybrid, multicloud, edge AI or

IoT.
■ Enable discoverable, composable and reusable AI artifacts (data catalogs, feature

stores, model stores) across the enterprise context.
Business Impact
OAISys deliver production AI systems that:
■ Systemize analytics and AI engineering technologies, including ModelOps and

MLOps platforms.
■ Integrate existing data, analytics and DSML platforms.
■ Utilize reusability components including feature and model stores, monitoring,

experiment management, model performance and lineage tracking.
■ Homogenize governance including compliance, risk, security, and cost across

deployment (hybrid, multicloud, IoT) and operational (streaming, batch) contexts.

Drivers
■ Enable business stakeholders to leverage AI as a service that is customized to their

enterprise context.
■ IT leaders need to deliver, manage and govern AI models within enterprise

applications deployed across multiple contexts and jurisdictions (hybrid, multicloud,
edge AI and IoT).
■ Traditional siloed approaches of data management and AI engineering create

integration challenges across the data ingest, processing, model engineering and
deployment.
■ OAISys enables enterprises to standardize and automate development,

management, deployment, maintenance and governance technologies to deliver
comprehensive, flexible and composed end-to-end AI systems.
■ It helps align and automate the data, AI model deployment and governance
pipelines.
■ Operationalization and automation platforms are a core part of how early enterprise
AI pioneers scale productization of AI by leveraging existing data, analytics and
governance frameworks.
■ Standardizing data pipelines, including DataOps toolchains, creating reusability

components such as data catalogs and ETL registries, monitoring, security, access
control and lineage tracking.
■ The enterprise OAISys enables unification of two core contexts: deployment context
across hybrid, multicloud, edge AI and IoT, and operational context across batch and
streaming processing modes that commonly occur as enterprises train and deploy
production models.

Obstacles
■ Enterprises with low data and AI maturity levels will find OAISys intimidating to build,
deliver and support.
■ OAISys requires integration of full-featured solutions with select tools that address
portfolio gaps with minimal overlap. These include capability gaps around feature
stores, model stores, governance capabilities and more.
■ OAISys requires a high degree of cloud maturity, or the ability to integrate data and
model pipelines across deployment contexts. The potential complexity and costs
may be a deterrent for organizations just starting their AI initiatives.
■ Enterprises seeking to deliver OAISys often seek “unicorn” experts and service
providers to productize AI. Fully featured vendor solutions that enable OAISys are
hard to come by, and enterprises often have to build and support these environments
on their own.
■ Focus AI engineering activities to deliver business context customized operational AI

systems.
■ Rationalize data and analytic environment and leverage current (simplified subset
of) investments in data management, DSML, ModelOps and MLOps tools to build
OAISys.
■ Leverage cloud service provider environments as foundational environments to build

OAISys along with rationalizing your data, analytics and AI portfolios as you migrate
to the cloud.
■ Avoid building patchwork OAISys that integrate piecemeal functionality from scratch
(and add another layer of tool sprawl). Utilize point solutions sparingly and
surgically to plug feature/capability gaps in fully featured DataOps, MLOps and
ModelOps tools.
■ Actively leverage your existing data management, DSML, MLOps and ModelOps
platforms as building blocks, rather than starting from scratch.
Sample Vendors
Amazon Web Services; Dataiku; DataRobot; Domino Data Lab; Google; HPE Ezmeral
Software; IBM; Iguazio; Microsoft; ModelOp

2023 Planning Guide for Analytics and Artificial Intelligence
Emerging Tech Impact Radar: Data and Analytics
Quick Answer: How Should CXOs Structure AI Operating Models?

At the Peak
AI TRiSM
Analysis By: Avivah Litan, Jeremy D'Hoinne, Bart Willemsen
Maturity: Adolescent
Definition:
AI trust, risk and security management (AI TRiSM) ensures AI model governance,
trustworthiness, fairness, reliability, robustness, efficacy and data protection. AI TRiSM
includes solutions and techniques for model interpretability and explainability, data and
content anomaly detection, AI data protection, model operations and adversarial attack
resistance.
AI models and applications deployed in production should be subject to protection

mechanisms. Doing so ensures sustained value generation and acceptable use based on
predetermined intentions. Accordingly, AI TRiSM is a framework that comprises a set of
risk and security controls and trust enablers that helps enterprises govern and manage AI
models and applications’ life cycle — and accomplish business goals. The collateral
benefit is enhanced compliance with forthcoming regulations, like the EU AI Act.
Business Impact
Organizations that do not consistently manage AI risks are exponentially inclined to

experience adverse outcomes, such as project failures and breaches. Inaccurate, unethical
or unintended AI outcomes, process errors and interference from malicious actors can
result in security failures, financial and reputational loss or liability, and social harm. AI
misperformance can also lead organizations to make suboptimal business decisions.
Drivers
■ ChatGPT democratized third-party-provisioned generative AI and transformed how

enterprises compete and do work. Accordingly, the risks associated with hosted,
cloud-based generative AI applications are significant and rapidly evolving.

■ Democratized, third-party-provisioned AI often poses considerable data
confidentiality risks. This is because large, sensitive datasets used to train AI models
are shared across organizations. Confidential data access must be carefully
controlled to avoid adverse regulatory, commercial and reputational consequences.
■ AI risk and security management imposes new operational requirements that are not
fully understood and cannot be addressed by existing systems. New vendors are
filling this gap.
■ AI models and applications must be constantly monitored to ensure that

implementations are compliant, fair and ethical. Risk management tools can identify
and eliminate bias from training data and AI algorithms.
■ AI model explainability must be constantly tested through model observations.

Doing so ensures original explanations and interpretations of AI models remain
active during model operations. If they don’t, corrective actions must be taken.
■ Detecting and stopping adversarial attacks on AI requires new methods that most
enterprise security systems do not offer.
■ Regulations for AI risk management — such as the EU AI Act and other regulatory
frameworks in North America, China and India — are driving businesses to institute
measures for managing AI model application risk. Such regulations define new
compliance requirements organizations will have to meet on top of existing ones,
like those pertaining to privacy protection.
Obstacles
■ AI TRiSM is often an afterthought. Organizations generally don’t consider it until
models or applications are in production.
■ Enterprises interfacing with hosted, large language models (LLMs) are missing
native capabilities to automatically filter inputs and outputs — for example,
confidential data policy violations or inaccurate information used for decision
making. Also, enterprises must rely on vendor licensing agreements to ensure their
confidential data remains private in the host environment.
■ Once models and applications are in production, AI TRiSM becomes more

challenging to retrofit to the AI workflow, thus creating inefficiencies and opening the
process to potential risks.
■ Most AI threats are not fully understood and not effectively addressed.

■ AI TRiSM requires a cross-functional team, including legal, compliance, security, IT
and data analytics staff, to establish common goals and use common frameworks
— which is difficult to achieve.
■ Although challenging, the integration of life cycle controls can be done with AI
TRiSM.
■ Set up an organizational task force or dedicated unit to manage your AI TRiSM
efforts. Include members who have a vested interest in your organization’s AI
projects.
■ Work across your organization to effectively manage best-of-breed toolsets for

enterprise-managed AI and applications that use hosted AI as part of a
comprehensive AI TRiSM program.
■ Avoid, to the extent possible, black-box models that stakeholders do not understand.
■ Implement solutions that protect data used by AI models. Prepare to use different
methods for different use cases and components.
■ Establish data protection and privacy assurances in license agreements with

vendors hosting LLM models — for example, Microsoft or OpenAI.
■ Use enterprise-policy-driven content filtering for inputs and outputs to and from
hosted models, such as LLMs.
■ Incorporate risk management mechanisms into AI models and applications’ design

and operations. Constantly validate reliable and acceptable use cases.
Sample Vendors
AIShield; Arize AI; Arthur; Fiddler; ModelOp; Modzy; MOSTLY AI; Protopia AI; SolasAI; TrojAI
Use Gartner’s MOST Framework for AI Trust and Risk Management
Top 5 Priorities for Managing AI Risk Within Gartner’s MOST Framework
Prompt Engineering
Analysis By: Frances Karamouzis, Afraz Jaffri, Jim Hare, Arun Chandrasekaran, Van Baker

Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
Prompt engineering is the discipline of providing inputs, in the form of text or images, to
generative AI models to specify and confine the set of responses the model can produce.
The inputs prompt a set that produces a desired outcome without updating the actual
weights of the model (as done with fine-tuning). Prompt engineering is also referred to as
“in-context learning,” where examples are provided to further guide the model.
Prompt engineering is the linchpin to business alignment for desired outcomes. Prompt
engineering is important because large language models (LLMs) and generative AI
models in general are extremely sensitive to nuances and small variations in input. A
slight tweak can change an incorrect answer to one that is usable as an output. Each
model has its own sensitivity level, and the discipline of prompt engineering is to uncover
the sensitivity through iterative testing and evaluation.
Business Impact
Prompt engineering has the following business impacts:
■ Performance: It helps improve model performance and reduce hallucinations.
■ Business alignment: It allows subject data scientists, subject matter experts and
software engineers to steer foundation models, which are general-purpose in nature,
to align to the business, domain and industry.
■ Efficiency and effectiveness: Alternative options, such as building a model from

scratch or fine-tuning, can be much more complex, drive longer time to market and
be more expensive.

Drivers
■ Balance and efficiency: The fundamental driver for prompt engineering is it allows
organizations to strike a balance between consuming an “as is” offering versus
pursuing a more expensive and time-consuming approach of fine-tuning. Generative
AI models, and in particular LLMs, are pretrained, so the data that enterprises want to
use with these models cannot be added to the training set. Instead, prompts can be
used to feed content to the model with an instruction to carry out a function.
■ Process or task-specific customizations or new use cases: The insertion of context

and patterns that a model uses to influence the output generated allows for
customizations for a particular enterprise or domain, or regulatory items. Prompts
are created to help improve the quality for different use cases — such as domain-
specific question answering, summarization, categorization, and so on — with or
without the need for fine-tuning a model, which can be expensive or impractical. This
would also apply to creating and designing new use cases that utilize the model’s
capability for image and text generation.
■ Validation and verification: It is important to test, understand and document the

limits and weaknesses of the models to ensure a reduced risk of hallucination and
unwanted outputs.

Obstacles
■ Embryonic nature of the discipline: Prompt engineering processes and roles are
either unknown or enterprises have a low level of understanding and experience.
Gartner webinar polling data (over 2,500 responses; see Executive Pulse: AI
Investment Gets a Boost From ChatGPT Hype) revealed that approximately 60% of
respondents self-reported that they had not heard of prompt engineering. And 90% of
those same respondents revealed that their organization did not currently have
prompt engineers.
■ Role alignment: Data scientists are critical to understanding the capabilities and
limits of models, and to determine whether to pursue a purely prompt-based or fine-
tuning-based approach (or combination of approaches) for customization. The
ultimate goal is to use machine learning itself to generate the best prompts and
achieve automated prompt optimization. This is in contrast to an end user of an
LLM who concentrates on prompt design to manually alter prompts to give better
responses.
■ Lack of business alignment: There is often a lack of consensus on prompt

engineering’s business approach, as well as agreed-upon standards, methodology
and approaches. This has led to fierce debates on the value of prompt engineering
and how to establish governance.
■ Risk: Beyond the early stages of awareness and understanding, the biggest obstacle
may be that prompt engineering is focused on verification, validation, improvement
and refinement; however, it’s not without risk. Prompt engineering is not the panacea
to all of the challenges. It helps to manage risk, not remove it completely. Errors may
still occur, and potential liability is at stake.

■ Rapidly build awareness and understanding of prompt engineering in order to

quickly start the journey of shape-shifting the appropriate prompt engineering
discipline and teams.
■ Build critical skills across a number of different team members that will
synergistically contribute critical elements. For example, there are important roles for
data scientists, business users, domain experts, software engineers and citizen
developers.
■ Communicate and cascade the message that prompt engineering is not foolproof.
Rigor and diligence need to permeate and work across all the enterprise teams to
ensure successful solutions.
Sample Vendors
FlowGPT; HoneyHive; LangChain; PromptBase; Prompt Flow; PromptLayer
Quick Answer: How Will Prompt Engineering Impact the Work of Data Scientists?
Quick Answer: What Impact Will Generative AI Have on Search?
Accelerate Adoption of Generative AI by Offering an FMOps- or a Domain-Specific Partner

Ecosystem
Glossary of Terms for Generative AI and Large Language Models
Neuromorphic Computing
Analysis By: Alan Priestley
Maturity: Embryonic

Definition:
Neuromorphic computing is a technology that provides a mechanism to more accurately

model the operation of a biological brain using digital or analog processing techniques.
These designs typically use spiking neural networks (SNNs), rather than the deep neural
networks (DNNs) of the current generations of AI technologies, feature non-von Neumann
architectures and are characterized by simple processing elements, but very high
interconnectivity.
Currently, most AI development leverages parallel processing designs based on GPUs.

These are high-performance, but high-power-consuming, devices that are not applicable in
many deployments. Neuromorphic computing utilizes asynchronous, event-based designs
that have the potential to offer extremely low power operation. This makes them uniquely
suitable for edge and endpoint devices, where their ability to support object and pattern
recognition can enable image, audio and sensor analytics.
Business Impact
AI techniques are rapidly evolving, enabled by radically new computing designs.
■ Today’s deep neural network (DNN) algorithms require the use of high-performance
processing devices and vast amounts of data to train these systems, limiting scope
of deployment.
■ Neuromorphic computing designs can be implemented using low-power devices,

bringing the potential to drive the reach of AI techniques out to the edge of the
network, accelerating key tasks such as image and sound recognition.

Drivers
■ Different design approaches are being taken to implement neuromorphic computing
designs — large-scale devices for use in data centers, and smaller-scale devices for
edge computing and endpoint designs. Both these paths leverage spiking neural
networks (SNNs) to implement asynchronous designs that have the benefit of being
extremely low power when compared with current DNN-based designs.
■ Semiconductor vendors are developing chips that utilize SNNs to implement AI-
based solutions.
■ Neuromorphic computing architectures have the potential to deliver extreme

performance for use cases such as DNNs and signal analysis at very low power.
■ Neuromorphic systems can be trained using smaller datasets than DNNs, with the
potential of in situ training.
Obstacles
■ Accessibility: GPUs are more accessible and easier to program than neuromorphic
computing. However, this could change when neuromorphic computing and the
supporting ecosystems mature.
■ Knowledge gaps: Programming neuromorphic computing will require new

programming models, tools and training methodologies.
■ Scalability: The complexity of interconnection challenges the ability of

semiconductor manufacturers to create viable neuromorphic devices.
■ Integration: Significant advances in architecture and implementation are required to

compete with other DNN-based architectures. Rapid developments in DNN
architectures may slow advances in neuromorphic computing, but there are likely to
be major leaps forward in the next decade.

■ Prepare for future utilization as neuromorphic architectures have the potential to

become viable over the next five years.
■ Create a roadmap plan by identifying key applications that could benefit from
neuromorphic computing.
■ Partner with key industry leaders in neuromorphic computing to develop proof-of-

concept projects.
■ Identify new skill sets required to be nurtured for successful development of

neuromorphic initiatives, and establish a set of business outcomes/expected value
to set management’s long-term expectations.
Sample Vendors
AnotherBrain; Applied Brain Research; BrainChip; GrAi Matter Labs; Intel; Natural
Intelligence; SynSense
Emerging Technologies: Tech Innovators in Neuromorphic Computing
Emerging Technologies: Top Use Cases for Neuromorphic Computing
Forecast: AI Semiconductors, Worldwide, 2021-2027
Emerging Tech Impact Radar: Artificial Intelligence
Responsible AI
Analysis By: Svetlana Sicular

Definition:
Responsible artificial intelligence (AI) is an umbrella term for aspects of making

appropriate business and ethical choices when adopting AI. These include business and
societal value, risk, trust, transparency, fairness, bias mitigation, explainability,
sustainability, accountability, safety, privacy, and regulatory compliance. Responsible AI
encompasses organizational responsibilities and practices that ensure positive,
accountable, and ethical AI development and operation.
Responsible AI has emerged as the key AI topic for Gartner clients. When AI replaces
human decisions and generates brand-new artifacts, it amplifies both good and bad
outcomes. Responsible AI enables the right outcomes by ensuring business value while
mitigating risks. This requires a set of tools and approaches, including industry-specific
methods, adopted by vendors and enterprises. More jurisdictions introduce new
regulations that challenge organizations to respond in meaningful ways.
Business Impact
Responsible AI assumes accountability for AI development and use at the individual,

organizational and societal levels. If AI governance is practiced by designated groups,
responsible AI applies to everyone involved in the AI process. Responsible AI helps achieve
fairness, even though biases are baked into the data; gain trust, although transparency
and explainability methods are evolving; and ensure regulatory compliance, despite the
AI’s probabilistic nature.

Drivers
■ Responsible AI means a deliberate approach in many directions at once. Data
science’s responsibility to deliver unbiased, trusted and ethical AI is just the tip of the
iceberg. Responsible AI helps AI participants develop, implement, utilize and address
the various drivers they face.
■ Organizational driver assumes that AI’s business value versus risk in regulatory,
business and ethical constraints should be balanced, including employee reskilling
and intellectual property protection.
■ Societal driver includes resolving AI safety for societal well-being versus limiting
human freedoms. Existing and pending legal guidelines and regulations, such as the
EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, make responsible AI a necessity.
■ Customer/citizen driver is based on fairness and ethics and requires resolving

privacy versus convenience. Customers should exhibit readiness to give their data in
exchange for benefits. Consumer and citizen protection regulations provide the
necessary steps, but do not relieve organizations of deliberation specific to their
constituents.
■ With further AI adoption, the responsible AI framework is becoming more important

and is better understood by vendors, buyers, society and legislators.
■ AI affects all ways of life and touches all societal strata; hence, the responsible AI
challenges are multifaceted and cannot be easily generalized. New problems
constantly arise with rapidly evolving technologies and their uses, such as using
OpenAI’s ChatGPT or detecting deepfakes. Most organizations combine some of the
drivers under the umbrella of responsible AI, namely, accountability, diversity, ethics,
explainability, fairness, human centricity, operational responsibility, privacy,
regulatory compliance, risk management, safety, transparency and trustworthiness.

Obstacles
■ Poorly defined accountability for responsible AI makes it look good on paper but is
ineffective in reality.
■ Unawareness of AI’s unintended consequences persists. Forty percent of

organizations had an AI privacy breach or security incident. Many organizations turn
to responsible AI only after they experience AI’s negative effects, whereas prevention
is easier and less stressful.
■ Legislative challenges lead to efforts for regulatory compliance, while most AI

regulations are still in draft. AI products’ adoption of regulations for privacy and
intellectual property makes it challenging for organizations to ensure compliance
and avoid all possible liability risks.
■ Rapidly evolving AI technologies, including tools for explainability, bias detection,

privacy protection and some regulatory compliance, lull organizations into a false
sense of responsibility, while mere technology is not enough. A disciplined AI ethics
and governance approach is necessary, in addition to technology.
■ Publicize consistent approaches across all focus areas. The most typical areas of
responsible AI in the enterprise are fairness, bias mitigation, ethics, risk
management, privacy, sustainability and regulatory compliance.
■ Designate a champion accountable for the responsible development and use of AI

for each use case.
■ Define model design and exploitation principles. Address responsible AI in all phases
of model development and implementation cycles. Go for hard trade-off questions.
Provide responsible AI training to personnel.
■ Establish operationalize responsible AI principles. Ensure diversity of participants

and the ease to voice AI concerns.
■ Participate in industry or societal AI groups. Learn best practices and contribute your
own, because everybody will benefit from this. Ensure policies account for the needs
of any internal or external stakeholders.
Sample Vendors
Amazon; Arthur; Fiddler; Google; H2O.ai; IBM; Microsoft; Responsible AI Institute; TAZI.AI;
TruEra

A Comprehensive Guide to Responsible AI
Expert Insight Video: What Is Responsible AI and Why Should You Care About It?
Best Practices for the Responsible Use of Natural Language Technologies
Activate Responsible AI Principles Using Human-Centered Design Techniques
How to Ensure Your Vendors Are Accountable for Governance of Responsible AI
Smart Robots
Analysis By: Annette Jump
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
A smart robot is an AI-powered, often-mobile machine designed to autonomously execute

one or more physical tasks. These tasks may rely on, or generate, machine learning, which
can be incorporated into future activities or support unprecedented conditions. Smart
robots can be split into different types based on the tasks/use cases, such as personal,
logistics and industrial.
Smart robotics is an AI use case, while robotics in general does not imply AI. Smart
(physical) robots had less adoption compared with industrial counterparts but received
great hype in the marketplace; therefore, smart robots are still climbing the Peak of
Inflated Expectations. There has been an increased interest in smart robots in the last 12
months, as companies are looking to further improve logistic operations, support
automation and augment humans in various jobs.

Business Impact
Smart robots will make their initial business impact across a wide spectrum of asset-,
product- and service-centric industries. Their ability to reduce physical risk to humans, as
well as do work with greater reliability, lower costs and higher productivity, is common
across these industries. Smart robots are already being deployed among humans to work
in logistics, warehousing, police as well as safety applications.
Drivers
■ The market is becoming more dynamic with technical developments of the last two
years, enabling a host of new use cases that have changed how smart robots are
perceived and how they can deliver value.
■ The physical building blocks of smart robots (motors, actuators, chassis and
wheels) have incrementally improved over time. However, areas such as Internet of
Things (IoT) integration, edge AI and conversational capabilities have seen
fundamental breakthroughs. This changes the paradigm for robot deployments.
■ Vendor specialization has increased, leading to solutions that have higher business
value, since an all-purpose/multipurpose device is either not possible or is less
valuable.
■ Growing interest in smart robots across a broad number of industries and use cases
like: medical/healthcare (patient care, medical materials handling, interdepartment
deliveries and sanitization); manufacturing (product assembly, stock replenishment,
support of remote operations and quality control [QC] check); last-mile delivery;
inspection of industrial objects or equipment; agriculture (harvesting and processing
crops); and workplace and concierge robots in workplaces, hospitality, hospitals and
so forth.

Obstacles
■ Companies are still struggling to identify valuable business use cases and assess
ROI for robots, especially outside of manufacturing and transportation. Therefore,
the position of “smart robots” is still climbing to the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
■ Hype and expectations will continue to build around smart robots during the next
few years, as providers expand their offerings and explore new technologies, like
reinforcement learning to drive a continuous loop of learning for robots and swarm
management.
■ Lack of ubiquitous wireless connectivity solutions outside of smart spaces and

immaturity of edge AI technologies can inhibit the pace at which smart robots
become semiautomated and mobile.
■ The need to offload computation to the cloud will decrease from 2024, as robots
will make more autonomous decisions.
■ The continuous evolution of pricing models, like buy, monthly lease or hourly charge
versus robot as a service for robotic solutions can create some uncertainty for
organizations.
■ Evaluate smart robots as both substitutes and complements to their human

workforce in manufacturing, distribution, logistics, retail, healthcare or defense.
■ Begin pilots designed to assess product capability and quantify benefits, especially
as ROI is possible even with small-scale deployments.
■ Examine current business processes for current deployment of smart robots and
also for large-scale deployment over the next three to five years.
■ Consider different purchase models for smart robots.
■ Dissolve the reluctance from staff by developing training resources to introduce

robots alongside humans as an assistant.
■ Ensure there are sufficient cloud computing resources to support high-speed and
low-latency connectivity in the next two years.
■ Evaluate multiple global and regional providers due to fragmentation within the
robot landscape.

Sample Vendors
Ava Robotics; Geek+; GreyOrange; iRobot; Locus Robotics; Rethink Robotics; SoftBank
Robotics; Symbotic; Temi; UBTECH
Emerging Technologies: Top Use Cases for Smart Robots to Lead the Way in Human
Augmentation
Emerging Technologies: Top Use Cases Where Robots Interact Directly With Humans
Emerging Technologies: Venture Capital Growth Insights for Robots, 2021
Emerging Technologies: Smart Robot Adoption Generates Diverse Business Value
Foundation Models
Analysis By: Arun Chandrasekaran
Definition:
Foundation models are large-parameter models that are trained on a broad gamut of
datasets in a self-supervised manner. They are mostly based on transformer or diffusion
deep neural network architectures and will potentially be multimodal in the near future.
They are called foundation models because of their critical importance and applicability
to a wide variety of downstream use cases. This broad applicability is due to the
pretraining and versatility of the models.
Foundation models are an important step forward for AI due to their massive pretraining
and wide use-case applicability. They can deliver state-of-the-art capabilities with higher
efficacy than their predecessors. They’ve become the go-to architecture for NLP, and have
also been applied to computer vision, audio and video processing, software engineering,
chemistry, finance, and legal use cases. Primarily text-based, large language models
(LLMs) are a popular subset of foundation models. ChatGPT is based on one (GPT-4).

Business Impact
With their potential to enhance applications across a broad range of natural language use
cases, foundation models will have a wide impact across vertical industries and business
functions. Their impact has accelerated, with a growing ecosystem of startups building
enterprise applications on top of them. Foundation models will advance digital
transformation within the enterprise by improving workforce productivity, automating and
enhancing CX, and enabling rapid, cost-effective creation of new products and services.
Drivers
Foundation models:
■ Require only limited model customization to deliver effective results. Foundation

models can effectively deliver value through prebuilt APIs, prompt engineering or
further fine-tuning. While fine-tuning may deliver the best value because of
customization possibilities, the other two options are less complex.
■ Deliver superior natural language processing. The difference between these models
and prior neural network solutions is stark. The large pretrained models can produce
coherent text, code, images, speech and video at a scale and accuracy not possible
before.
■ Enable low-friction experimentation. The past year has seen an influx of foundation
models, along with smaller, pretrained domain-specific models built from them. Most
of these are available as cloud APIs or open-source projects, further reducing the
time and cost to experiment.
■ Have accelerated AI innovation with massive model sizes. Examples include

OpenAI’s GPT-4; Google’s AI’s PaLM; Google DeepMind’s Gopher and Chinchilla; Meta
AI’s LLaMA; and Alibaba’s M6. In addition, companies such as Hugging Face,
Stability AI and EleutherAI have open-sourced their models.
Obstacles
Foundation models:
■ Do not deliver perfect results. Although a significant advance, foundation models

still require careful training and guardrails. Because of their training methods and
black-box nature, they can deliver unacceptable results or hallucinations. They also
can propagate downstream any bias or copyright issues in the datasets.

■ Require appropriate skills and talent. As with all AI solutions, the end result depends
on the skills, knowledge and talent of the trainers, particularly for prompt engineering
and fine-tuning.
■ Expand to impractical sizes. Large models are up to billions or trillions of

parameters. They are impractically large to train for most organizations because of
the necessary compute resources, which can make them expensive and ecologically
unfriendly.
■ Concentrate power. These models have been mostly built by the largest technology
companies with huge R&D investments and significant AI talent, resulting in a
concentration of power among a few large, deep-pocketed entities. This situation
may create a significant imbalance in the future.
■ Create a strategy document that outlines the benefits, risks, opportunities and
execution plans for these models in a collaborative effort.
■ Plan to introduce foundation models into existing speech, text or coding programs.
If you have any older language processing systems, moving to a transformer-based
model could significantly improve performance. One example might be a text
interpretation, where transformers can interpret multiple ideas in a single utterance.
This shift in approach can significantly advance language interfaces by reducing the
number of interactions.
■ Start with models that have superior ecosystem support, have adequate enterprise
guardrails around security and privacy, and are more widely deployed.
■ Explore new use cases, such as natural language inference, sentiment analysis or
natural-language-based enterprise search, where the models can significantly
improve both accuracy and time to market.
■ Designate an incubation team to monitor industry developments, communicate the

art of the possible, experiment with BUs and share valuable lessons learned
companywide.
Sample Vendors
Alibaba Group; Amazon; Baidu; Cohere; Google; Hugging Face; IBM; Microsoft; OpenAI;
Stability AI

Generative AI
Analysis By: Svetlana Sicular, Brian Burke
Definition:
Generative AI technologies can generate new derived versions of content, strategies,

designs and methods by learning from large repositories of original source content.
Generative AI has profound business impacts, including on content discovery, creation,
authenticity and regulations; automation of human work; and customer and employee
experiences.
Generative AI exploration is accelerating, thanks to the popularity of Stable Diffusion,

Midjourney, ChatGPT and large language models. End-user organizations in most
industries aggressively experiment with generative AI. Technology vendors form
generative AI groups to prioritize delivery of generative-AI-enabled applications and tools.
Numerous startups have emerged in 2023 to innovate with generative AI, and we expect
this to grow. Some governments are evaluating the impacts of generative AI and preparing
to introduce regulations.
Business Impact
Most technology products and services will incorporate generative AI capabilities in the
next 12 months, introducing conversational ways of creating and communicating with
technologies, leading to their democratization. Generative AI will progress rapidly in
industry verticals, scientific discovery and technology commercialization. Sadly, it will also
become a security and societal threat when used for nefarious purposes. Responsible AI,
trust and security will be necessary for safe exploitation of generative AI.

Drivers
■ The hype around generative AI is accelerating. Currently, ChatGPT is the most hyped
technology. It relies on generative foundation models, also called “transformers.”
■ New foundation models and their new versions, sizes and capabilities are rapidly
coming to market. Transformers keep making an impact on language, images,
molecular design and computer code generation. They can combine concepts,
attributes and styles, creating original images, video and art from a text description
or translating audio to different voices and languages.
■ Generative adversarial networks, variational autoencoders, autoregressive models

and zero-/one-/few-shot learning have been rapidly improving generative modeling
while reducing the need for training data.
■ Machine learning (ML) and natural language processing platforms are adding
generative AI capabilities for reusability of generative models, making them
accessible to AI teams.
■ Industry applications of generative AI are growing. In healthcare, generative AI

creates medical images that depict disease development. In consumer goods, it
generates catalogs. In e-commerce, it helps customers “try on” makeup and outfits.
In manufacturing, quality inspection uses synthetic data. In semiconductors,
generative AI accelerates chip design. Life sciences companies apply generative AI
to speed up drug development. Generative AI helps innovate product development
through digital twins. It helps create new materials targeting specific properties to
optimize catalysts, agrochemicals, fragrances and flavors.
■ Generative AI reaches creative work in marketing, design, music, architecture and

content. Content creation and improvement in text, images, video and sound enable
personalized copywriting, noise cancellation and visual effects in videoconferencing.
■ Synthetic data draws enterprises’ attention by helping to augment scarce data,

mitigate bias or preserve data privacy. It boosts the accuracy of brain tumor surgery.
■ Generative AI will disrupt software coding. Combined with development automation

techniques, it can automate up to 30% of the programmers’ work.

Obstacles
■ Democratization of generative AI uncovers new ethical and societal concerns.
Government regulations may hinder generative AI research. Governments are
currently soliciting input on AI safety measures.
■ Hallucinations, factual errors, bias, a black-box nature and inexperience with a full AI
life cycle preclude the use of generative AI for critical use cases.
■ Reproducing generative AI results and finding references for information produced

by general-purpose LLMs will be challenging in the near term.
■ Low awareness of generative AI among security professionals causes incidents that

could undermine generative AI adoption.
■ Some vendors will use generative AI terminology to sell subpar “generative AI”
solutions.
■ Generative AI can be used for many nefarious purposes. Full and accurate detection
of generated content, such as deepfakes, will remain challenging or impossible.
■ The compute resources for training large, general-purpose foundation models are
heavy and not affordable to most enterprises.
■ Sustainability concerns about high energy consumption for training generative

models are rising.

■ Identify initial use cases where you can improve your solutions with generative AI by
relying on purchased capabilities or partnering with specialists. Consult vendor
roadmaps to avoid developing similar solutions in-house.
■ Pilot ML-powered coding assistants, with an eye toward fast rollouts, to maximize
developer productivity.
■ Use synthetic data to accelerate the development cycle and lessen regulatory
concerns.
■ Quantify the advantages and limitations of generative AI. Supply generative AI

guidelines, as it requires skills, funds and caution. Weigh technical capabilities with
ethical factors. Beware of subpar offerings that exploit the current hype.
■ Mitigate generative AI risks by working with legal, security and fraud experts.
Technical, institutional and political interventions will be necessary to fight AI’s
adversarial impacts. Start with data security guidelines.
■ Optimize the cost and efficiency of AI solutions by employing composite AI

approaches to combine generative AI with other AI techniques.
Sample Vendors
Adobe; Amazon; Anthropic; Google; Grammarly; Hugging Face; Huma.AI; Microsoft;

OpenAI; Schrödinger
Emerging Tech Roundup: ChatGPT Hype Fuels Urgency for Advancing Conversational AI
and Generative AI
Emerging Tech: Venture Capital Growth Insights for Generative AI
Emerging Tech: Generative AI Needs Focus on Accuracy and Veracity to Ensure

Widespread B2B Adoption
ChatGPT Research Highlights

Synthetic Data
Analysis By: Arun Chandrasekaran, Anthony Mullen, Alys Woodward
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
Synthetic data is a class of data that is artificially generated rather than obtained from
direct observations of the real world. Synthetic data is used as a proxy for real data in a
wide variety of use cases including data anonymization, AI and machine learning
development, data sharing and data monetization.
A major problem with AI development today is the burden involved in obtaining real-world
data and labeling it. This time-consuming and expensive task can be remedied with
synthetic data. Additionally, for specific use-cases like training models for autonomous
vehicles, collecting real data for 100% coverage of edge cases is practically impossible.
Furthermore, synthetic data can be generated without personally identifiable information
(PII) or protected health information (PHI), making it a valuable technology for privacy
preservation.
Business Impact
Adoption is increasing across various industries. Gartner predicts a massive increase in

adoption as synthetic data:
■ Avoids using PII when training machine learning (ML) models via synthetic
variations of original data or synthetic replacement of parts of data.
■ Reduces cost and saves time in ML development.
■ Improves ML performance as more training data leads to better outcomes.
■ Enables organizations to pursue new use cases for which very little real data is
available.
■ Is capable of addressing fairness issues more efficiently.

Drivers
■ In healthcare and finance, buyer interest is growing as synthetic tabular data can be
used to preserve privacy in AI training data.
■ To meet increasing demand for synthetic data for natural language automation
training, especially for chatbots and speech applications, new and existing vendors
are bringing offerings to market. This is expanding the vendor landscape and driving
synthetic data adoption.
■ Synthetic data applications have expanded beyond automotive and computer vision
use cases to include data monetization, external analytics support, platform
evaluation and the development of test data.
■ Increasing adoption of AI simulation techniques is accelerating synthetic data.
■ There is an expansion to other data types. While tabular, image, video, text and
speech applications are common, R&D labs are expanding the concept of synthetic
data to graphs. Synthetically generated graphs will resemble, but not overlap the
original. As organizations begin to use graph technology more, we expect this
method to mature and drive adoption.
■ The explosion of innovation in AI foundation models is boosting synthetic data

creation. These models are becoming more accessible and more accurate.

Obstacles
■ Synthetic data can have bias problems, miss natural anomalies, be complicated to
develop, or not contribute any new information to existing, real-world data.
■ Data quality is tied to the model that develops the data.
■ Synthetic data generation methodologies lack standardization.
■ Completeness and realism are highly subjective with synthetic data.
■ Buyers are still confused over when and how to use the technology due to lack of
skills.
■ Synthetic data can still reveal a lot of sensitive details about an organization, so
security is a concern. An ML model could be reverse-engineered via active learning.
With active learning, a learning algorithm can interactively query a user (or other
information sources) to label new data points with the desired outputs, meaning
learning algorithms can actively query the user or teacher for labels.
■ If fringe or edge cases are not part of the seed dataset, they will not be synthetized.
This means the handling of such borderline cases must be carefully accommodated.
■ There may be a level of user skepticism as data may be perceived to be “inferior” or

“fake.”
■ Identify areas in your organization where data is missing, incomplete or expensive to
obtain, and is thus currently blocking AI initiatives. In regulated industries, such as
healthcare or finance, exercise caution and adhere to rules.
■ Use synthetic variations of the original data, or synthetic replacement of parts of

data, when personal data is required but data privacy is a requirement.
■ Educate internal stakeholders through training programs on the benefits and

limitations of synthetic data and institute guardrails to mitigate challenges such as
user skepticism and inadequate data validation.
■ Measure and communicate the business value, success and failure stories of
synthetic data initiatives.

Sample Vendors
Anonos (Statice); Datagen; Diveplane; Gretel; Hazy; MOSTLY AI; Neuromation; Rendered.ai;
Tonic.ai; YData
Innovation Insight for Synthetic Data
Data Science and Machine Learning Trends You Can’t Ignore
Cool Vendors in Data-Centric AI
Case Study: Enable Business-Led Innovation with Synthetic Data (Fidelity International)
Edge AI
Analysis By: Eric Goodness
Definition:
Edge AI refers to the use of AI techniques embedded in non-IT products, IoT endpoints,
gateways and edge servers. It spans use cases for consumer, commercial and industrial
applications, such as autonomous vehicles, enhanced capabilities of medical diagnostics
and streaming video analytics. While predominantly focused on AI inference, more
sophisticated systems may include a local training capability to provide optimization of
the AI models at the edge.

Many edge computing use cases are latency-sensitive and data-intensive, and require an
increasing amount of autonomy for local decision making. This creates a need for AI-
based applications in a wide range of edge computing and endpoint solutions. Examples
include real-time analysis of edge data for predictive maintenance and industrial control,
inferences and decision support where connectivity is unreliable, or video analytics for
real-time interpretation of video.
Business Impact
The business benefits of deploying edge AI include:
■ Real-time data analysis and decision intelligence
■ Improved operational efficiency, such as manufacturing visual inspection systems

that identify defects, wasted motion, waiting, and over- or underproduction
■ Enhanced customer experience, through feedback from AI embedded within

products
■ Connectivity cost reduction, with less data traffic between the edge and the cloud
■ Persistent functions and solution availability, irrespective of network connectivity
■ Reduced storage demand, as only prioritized data is passed on to core systems
■ Preserved data privacy at the endpoint
Drivers
Overall, edge AI has benefited from improvements in the capabilities of AI. This includes:
■ The maturation of machine learning operationalization (MLOps) and ModelOps

tools and processes support ease of use across a broader set of features that span
the broader MLOps functions. Initially, many companies came to market with a
narrowcast focus on model compression.
■ The improved performance of combined ML techniques and an associated increase

in data availability (such as time-series data from industrial assets).
Business demand for new and improved outcomes solely achievable from the use of AI at
the edge, which include:

■ Reducing full-time equivalents with vision-based solutions used for surveillance or
inspections.
■ Improving manufacturing production quality by automating various processes.
■ Optimizing operational processes across industries.
■ New approaches to customer experience, such as personalization on mobile devices

or changes in retail from edge-based smart check-out points of sale.
Additional drivers include:
■ Increasing number of users upgrading legacy systems and infrastructure in

“brownfield” environments. By using MLOps platforms, AI software can be hosted
within an edge computer or a gateway (aggregation point) or embedded within a
product with the requisite compute resources. An example of this is AI software
deployed (TinyML) deployed to automotive or agricultural equipment to enhance
asset monitoring and maintenance.
■ More manufacturers embedding AI in the endpoint as an element of product

servitization. In this architecture, the IoT endpoints, such as in automobiles, home
appliances or commercial building infrastructure, are capable of running AI models
to interpret data captured by the endpoint and drive some of the endpoints’
functions. In this case, the AI is trained and updated on a central system and
deployed to the IoT endpoint. Examples of the use of embedded (edge) AI are
medical wearables, automated guided vehicles and other robotic products that
possess some levels of intelligence and autonomy.
■ Rising demand for R&D in training decentralized AI models at the edge for adaptive
AI. These emerging solutions are driven by explicit needs such as privacy
preservation or the requirement for machines and processes to run in disconnected
(from the cloud) scenarios. Such models enable faster response to changes in the
environment, and provide benefits in use cases such as responding to a rapidly
evolving threat landscape in security operations.

Obstacles
■ Edge AI is constrained by the application and design limitations of the equipment
deployed; this includes form factor, power budget, data volume, decision latency,
location and security requirements.
■ Systems deploying AI techniques can be nondeterministic. This will impact

applicability in certain use cases, especially where safety and security requirements
are important.
■ The autonomy of edge AI-enabled solutions, built on some ML and deep learning
techniques, often presents questions of trust, especially where the inferences are not
readily interpretable or explainable. As adaptive AI solutions increase, these issues
will increase if initially identical models deployed to equivalent endpoints
subsequently begin to evolve diverging behaviors.
■ The lack of quality and sufficient data for training is a universal challenge across AI
usage.
■ Deep learning in neural networks is a compute-intensive task, often requiring the use
of high-performance chips with corresponding high-power budgets. This can limit
deployment locations, especially where small form factors and lower-power
requirements are paramount.
■ Determine whether the use of edge AI provides adequate cost-benefit improvements,
or whether traditional centralized data analytics and AI methodologies are adequate
and scalable.
■ Evaluate when to consider AI at the edge versus a centralized solution. Good

candidates for edge AI are applications that have high communications costs, are
sensitive to latency, require real-time responses or ingest high volumes of data at the
edge.
■ Assess the different technologies available to support edge AI and the viability of the
vendors offering them. Many potential vendors are startups that may have
interesting products but limited support capabilities.
■ Use edge gateways and servers as the aggregation and filtering points to perform
most of the edge AI and analytics functions. Make an exception for compute-
intensive endpoints, where AI-based analytics can be performed on the devices
themselves.

Sample Vendors
Akira AI; Edge Impulse; Falkonry; Imagimob; Litmus; MicroAI; Modzy; Octonion Group;
Palantir
Building a Digital Future: Emergent AI Trends
Emerging Technologies: Neuromorphic Computing Impacts Artificial Intelligence Solutions
Emerging Technologies: Edge Technologies Offer Strong Area of Opportunity — Adopter

Survey Findings
Emerging Tech Impact Radar: Edge AI
ModelOps
Analysis By: Joe Antelmi, Erick Brethenoux, Soyeb Barot
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
Model operationalization (ModelOps) is primarily focused on the end-to-end governance

and life cycle management of advanced analytics, AI and decision models (models based
on machine learning [ML], knowledge graphs, rules, optimization, linguistics, agents and
others).
ModelOps helps companies challenged in standardizing, scaling and augmenting their

analytics and AI initiatives that leverage a combination of statistical and ML models. It
helps organizations to move their models from the lab environments into production.
MLOps primarily focuses on monitoring and governance of ML models, while ModelOps
assists in the operationalization and governance of all advanced analytics, decision and
AI models (including ML models).

Business Impact
ModelOps delivers business impact in multiple ways. As a practice, it:
■ Lays down the foundation for the management of various knowledge representation
models, reasoning capabilities and composite model integration.
■ Augments the ability to manage decision models and integrate multiple analytics
techniques for robust decision making.
■ Ensures collaboration among a wider business, development and deployment

community, and the ability to correlate analytics and model outcomes with business
KPIs.
Drivers
■ As the number of advanced analytics, AI and decision models at organizations

increase, and as projects become more complicated, organizations will have to
manage different types of prepackaged or custom-made models. All will require
different operationalization and governance procedures, especially when they are
built from scratch.
■ Organizations want to be more agile and responsive to changes within their

advanced analytics and AI pipelines, not just with models, but also with data,
application and infrastructure.
■ The operationalization aspects of ML models are not new, but they are in their early
stages. However, with ModelOps, the functionalities provided by MLOps are now
extended to other non-ML models.
■ ModelOps provides a framework to separate responsibilities across various teams

for how models (including generative AI, foundational models, analytics, ML,
physical, simulation, symbolic, etc.) are built, tested, deployed and monitored across
different environments (for example, development, test and production). This
enables better productivity and collaboration, and it lowers failure rates.
■ There’s a need to create resilient and adaptive systems that use a combination of
various analytical techniques for decision support, augmentation and automation.
■ There is a wide range of risk management concerns across different models — drift,
bias, explainability and integrity — that ModelOps helps address.

Obstacles
■ Organizations using different types of models in production often don’t realize that
for some analytics, decision and AI models (rule-based, agent-based, graph,
generative AI or simulation models), end-to-end governance and management
capabilities can and need to be expanded further.
■ Not all analytical techniques currently benefit from mature operationalization

methods. Because the spotlight has been on ML techniques, MLOps benefits from a
more evolved AI practice, but some models, like agent-based modeling, rule-based
models and optimization techniques, require more attention in ModelOps practices
and platforms. The creation of applications that leverage generative AI has
increased the focus of integrating ModelOps with generative and foundational
models, also known as LLMOps in the industry.
■ The lack of knowledge relevant to leveraging multiple analytics and AI techniques

could prevent organizations from considering the techniques particularly suited to
solving specific problems.
■ Organizations that are siloed create redundancy in effort with respect to

operationalization.

■ Leverage different analytics and AI techniques to increase the success rate of data
and analytics initiatives.
■ Utilize ModelOps best practices across data, models and applications to ensure
transition, reduce friction and increase value generation.
■ Extend the skills of ML experts to operationalize a wider range of models.

Recruit/upskill additional AI experts to also cover graph analytics, optimization or
other required techniques for composite AI
■ Establish a culture that encourages collaboration between development and

deployment teams, and empowers teams to make decisions to automate, scale and
bring stability to the analytics and AI pipeline.
■ Collaborate with data management and software engineering teams to scale

ModelOps. Offloading operationalization responsibilities to multiple teams enables
increased ModelOps specialization and sophistication across the ecosystem of
complex AI-enabled applications.
■ Optimize the adaptability and efficiency of your AI projects by considering a

composite AI approach — integrating various AI techniques to solve business
problems.
Sample Vendors
DataRobot; Datatron; IBM; McKinsey & Company (Iguazio); ModelOp; Modzy; SAS; Subex;
Valohai; Verta
Top 5 Priorities for Managing AI Risk Within Gartner’s MOST Framework
Market Guide for AI Trust, Risk and Security Management
Use Gartner’s MLOps Framework to Operationalize Machine Learning Projects
A Mandate for MLOps, ModelOps and DevOps Coordination
Toolkit: Delivery Metrics for DataOps, Self-Service Analytics, ModelOps and MLOps

Sliding into the Trough
Knowledge Graphs
Analysis By: Afraz Jaffri
Definition:
Knowledge graphs are machine-readable representations of the physical and digital

worlds. They include entities (people, companies, digital assets) and their relationships,
which adhere to a graph data model — a network of nodes (vertices) and links
(edges/arcs).
Knowledge graphs capture information about the world in an intuitive way yet are still
able to represent complex relationships. Knowledge graphs act as the backbone of a
number of products, including search, smart assistants and recommendation engines.
Knowledge graphs support collaboration and sharing, exploration and discovery, and the
extraction of insights through analysis. Generative AI models can be combined with
knowledge graphs to add trusted and verified facts to their outputs.
Business Impact
Knowledge graphs can drive business impact in a variety of different settings, including:
■ Digital workplace (e.g., collaboration, sharing and search)
■ Automation (e.g., ingestion of data from content to robotic process automation)
■ Machine learning (e.g., augmenting training data)
■ Investigative analysis (e.g., law enforcement, cybersecurity or financial transactions)
■ Digital commerce (e.g., product information management and recommendations)
■ Data management (e.g., metadata management, data cataloging and data fabric)
Drivers

■ The need to complement AI/ML methods that detect only patterns in data (such as
the current generation of foundation models) with the explicit knowledge, rules and
semantics provided by knowledge graphs.
■ Increasing awareness of the use of knowledge graphs in consumer products and

services, such as smart devices and voice assistants, chatbots, search engines,
recommendation engines, and route planning.
■ The emerging landscape of Web3 applications and the need for data access across
trust networks, leading to the creation of decentralized knowledge graphs to build
immutable and queryable data structures.
■ Improvements in graph DBMS technology that can handle the storage and
manipulation of graph data structures at scale. These include PaaS offerings that
take away the complexity of provisioning and optimizing hardware and
infrastructure.
■ The desire to make better use of unstructured data held in documents,

correspondence, images and videos, using standardized metadata that can be
related and managed.
■ The need to manage the increasing number of data silos where data is often
duplicated, and where meaning, usage and consumption patterns are not well-
defined.
■ The use of graph algorithms and machine learning to identify influencers, customer
segments, fraudulent activity and critical bottlenecks in complex networks.
Obstacles
■ Awareness of knowledge graph use cases is increasing, but business value and
relevance are difficult to capture in the early implementation stages.
■ Moving knowledge graph models from prototype to production requires engineering

and system integration expertise. Methods to maintain knowledge graphs as they
scale — to ensure reliable performance, handle duplication and preserve data quality
— remain immature.
■ The graph DBMS market is fragmented along three properties: type of data model
(RDF or property), implementation architecture (native or multimodal) and optimal
workload (operational or analytical). This fragmentation continues to cause
confusion and hesitation among adopters.

■ Organizations want to enable the ingestion, validation and sharing of ontologies and
data relating to entities (such as geography, people, events). However, making
internal data interoperable with external knowledge graphs is a challenge.
■ In-house expertise, especially among SMEs, is lacking, and identifying third-party

providers is difficult. Often, expertise resides with vendors of graph technologies.
■ Create a working group of knowledge graph practitioners and sponsors by
assessing the skills of D&A leaders and practitioners and business domain experts.
Highlight the obstacles to dependable and efficient data delivery for analytics and AI,
and articulate how knowledge graphs can remove them.
■ Run a pilot to identify use cases that need custom-made knowledge graphs. The
pilot should deliver not only tangible value for the business, but also learning and
development for D&A staff.
■ Create a minimum viable subset that can capture the information of a business
domain to decrease time to value. Assess the data, both structured and
unstructured, needed to feed a knowledge graph, and follow Agile development
principles.
■ Utilize vendor and service provider expertise to validate use cases, educate
stakeholders and provide an initial knowledge graph implementation.
■ Include knowledge graphs within the scope of D&A governance and management.
To avoid perpetuating data silos, investigate and establish ways for multiple
knowledge graphs to interoperate and extend toward a data fabric.
Sample Vendors
Cambridge Semantics; Diffbot; eccenca; Neo4j; Ontotext; Stardog; TigerGraph;

TopQuadrant; Trace Labs
How to Build Knowledge Graphs That Enable AI-Driven Enterprise Applications
3 Ways to Enhance AI With Graph Analytics and Machine Learning
Working With Graph Data Stores

How Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs Can Transform Enterprise Search
AI Maker and Teaching Kits

Analysis By: Eric Hunter, Annette Jump
Maturity: Early mainstream
Definition:
Artificial intelligence (AI) maker and teaching kits are applications and software
development kits (SDKs) that abstract data science platforms, frameworks, analytic
libraries and devices to enable software engineers to incorporate AI into new or existing
applications. Maker kits also emphasize teaching new skills and best practices for
integration between software and devices for engineers — some of which also include
hardware devices.
AI maker kits package developer-friendly APIs and SDKs while often complemented by
custom hardware devices (such as cameras, musical instruments, speakers or vehicles).
These offerings encourage platform developer adoption while educating developers
around new AI capabilities and libraries.
Business Impact
The demand for AI is significant and is increasing at a rate beyond what experienced data
scientists can meet alone — with many software engineering teams leading AI
development and use cases. Also, the number of sensors and data-centric enablers for AI
use cases is rapidly growing. These offerings will equip software developers to become a
key contingent for AI development and implementation. AI maker kits will also continue to
reduce adoption barriers in the deployment of AI capabilities for software engineers and
citizen data scientists.

Drivers
■ As the demand for more proficient data scientists rises, the adoption of AI maker and
teaching kits will continue to increase.
■ Vendors of AI hardware need an educated customer base, which can be fostered

through the provision of AI maker kits.
■ While largely focusing on developer upskilling or proofs of concept (POCs), these

kits have also driven new vendor innovations, targeting mainstream enterprise use
cases. Illustrative examples include Google Coral, Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service
and NVIDIA Omniverse Avatar Cloud Engine (ACE).
■ Within many kits, developers can deploy prebuilt models and, optionally, update
those models from cloud services at model runtime.
■ AI maker and teaching kits accelerate the incorporation and deployment of AI

services into your applications.
■ Convergence in deployment for language, translation, vision, machine learning (ML)

and cognitive search kits will support new AI use cases in the digital enterprise.
Google’s Multitask Unified Model (MUM) initiative is a good example of such
convergence.
■ Continued demand for organizational outcomes focusing on computer vision,

natural language and other AI-aligned capabilities fit well with AI maker kit offerings.
■ Specialist hardware linked to AI systems is more easily demonstrated, and exploited,

through AI maker kits, such as the desktop-scale robot arm from Rotrics.
■ Maker kit paths to production-caliber offerings will continue to mature as new

capabilities are integrated into market offerings.

Obstacles
■ Vendor kit and hardware innovations have stagnated, most traction is around
software API and SDK innovations.
■ Vendor offerings require distinct deployment considerations and have varied feature
coverage differences, but we expect greater consistency in the future.
■ Data scale and management strategies can be overlooked as ideas move beyond a
POC stage.
■ Kits support only a limited set of native use cases, such as computer vision, image
recognition, labeling, natural language and text analytics.
■ Market offerings are typically mutually exclusive in terms of the use cases
supported, usually being singular (i.e., a computer vision kit and a kit supporting
natural language processing [NLP] have no shared components or platforms).
■ Market offerings do not follow a consistent set of standards, and kits have an
inconsistent level of support/capabilities for production-ready use cases. Some
support scaling development concepts to full-scale production use cases, while
others offer no path from development-only scenarios.
■ Leverage maker kits to upskill developer knowledge and skills, which can translate to
present and future enterprise needs that may directly or indirectly relate to kit-specific
use cases.
■ Carefully evaluate and stress-test employed maker kit offerings, along with fully
understanding the going concern support for each specific offering.
■ Abstract adopted vendor development kit offerings where possible to minimize

portability constraints and lock-in, and prioritize vendor interoperability.
■ Actively participate in commercial and open-source communities to influence longer-

term roadmaps.
■ Ensure deployed capabilities are aligned to direct end-user benefits that cannot be
easily achieved without AI.
■ Adopt offerings in alignment with larger organizational development standards and

strategies.

Sample Vendors
Amazon Web Services; Google; Intel; Microsoft; NVIDIA; Pantech Prolabs India; Rotrics;
Samsung Electronics
Emerging Tech Impact Radar: Artificial Intelligence
Emerging Technologies: Top Use Cases for Smart Robots to Lead the Way in Human
Augmentation
Applying AI — A Framework for the Enterprise
What Is Artificial Intelligence? Ignore the Hype; Here’s Where to Start
Improve Computer Vision Use Cases With Standardized Implementation Patterns
Autonomous Vehicles
Analysis By: Jonathan Davenport
Maturity: Emerging
Definition:
Autonomous vehicles use various onboard sensing and localization technologies, such as
lidar, radar, cameras, global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and map data, in
combination with AI-based decision making, to drive without human supervision or
intervention. Autonomous vehicle technology is being applied to passenger vehicles,
buses and trucks, as well as for specific use cases such as mining and agricultural
tractors.

Autonomous vehicles have the potential to change transportation economics, cutting

operational costs and increasing vehicle utilization. In urban areas, inexpensive fares and
high-quality service may reduce the need for private car ownership. Road safety will also
increase, as AI systems will never be distracted, drive drunk or speed. Autonomous
features on privately owned vehicles will enable productivity and recreational activities to
be undertaken, while the vehicle handles the driving operations.
Business Impact
Autonomous vehicles have the potential to disrupt established automotive business

models. Self-driving systems will stimulate demand for onboard computation, radically
increasing the semiconductor content of vehicles. After the office and home, vehicles will
become a living space (like airplanes) where digital content is both created and
consumed. Over time, it is likely that fleet operators will retrain and redeploy commercial
drivers to other, higher-value-adding roles within the company.

Drivers
■ The formalization of regulations and standards for autonomous vehicles will aid
implementation. Automated lane-keeping system (ALKS) technology has been
approved by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). This is
the first binding international regulation for SAE Level 3 vehicle automation, with a
maximum operational speed of 37 mph. To take advantage of the new regulatory
landscape, automakers are beginning to announce Level 3 solutions. Honda is the
first company to announce a commercially available ALKS equipped vehicle, though
only 100 will be produced.
■ Other companies are quickly following, with Mercedes-Benz being the first
automotive manufacturer worldwide to secure internationally valid system approval
and has launched in Germany. Its Level 3 solution has secured approval from the
state of Nevada and an application to enable cars to drive autonomously in
California has also been made.
■ In China Changan, Great Wall Motor and Xpeng have announced Level 3 systems.
Other global automakers are following suit. Hyundai’s new Genesis G90 and the Kia
EV9 vehicles will come equipped with a Level 3 Highway Driving Pilot (HDP)
function.
■ This signals that the autonomous vehicle market is most likely to evolve gradually
from ADAS systems to higher levels of autonomy on passenger vehicles, rather than
seeing a robotaxi-based revolution. This will require flexible vehicle operational
design domains (ODDs). Progress is being made by companies like Mobileye who’s
perception system was developed on the roads of Israel, but required minimal
retraining to perform well in diverse cities like Munich and Detroit.
■ The most compelling business case for autonomous vehicles relates to self-driving
trucks. Driver pay is one of the largest operating costs for fleets associated with a
commercial truck, plus goods can be transported much faster to their destination
because breaks are no longer necessary. The Aurora Driver product is now at a
“feature complete” stage, with a plan to launch a “middle-mile” driverless truck
service at the end of 2024.

Obstacles
■ Designing an AI system that is capable of driving a vehicle is hugely complex. As a

result, the cost of bringing a commercial autonomous vehicle to market has been
greater than companies could have previously envisioned, requiring significant
investments to be made.
■ When autonomous vehicles are commercially deployed, autonomous vehicle

developers, not the human occupants, will be liable for the autonomous operations
of the vehicle. This raises important issues, should a vehicle be involved in an
accident, and the need for associated insurance.
■ Challenges increasingly include regulatory, legal and societal considerations, such

as permits for operation and the effects of human interactions.
Analyst Notes:
■ Volvo’s EX90 vehicles are being deployed with hardware-ready for unsupervised
autonomous driving (including a lidar from Luminar), despite the self-driving
software not being ready for deployment. Volvo plans to deploy an over-the-air
software to move capability from Level 2 ADAS system to Level 3 in the future.
■ Despite continued improvements in Level 4 autonomous vehicle perception

algorithms and broader self-driving systems used for mobility use cases (such as
robotaxis), driverless operations have not scaled to different cities quickly. Waymo —
one of the early leaders of operations without a safety driver — has struggled to
expand outside of Arizona.
■ Slow progress saw Ford and VW pull their investments in Argo AI at the end of 2022,
causing the joint venture’s operation to close. VW had invested approximately 2
billion Euros in the company.
■ Likewise Pony.ai’s permit to test driverless vehicles in California was suspended

after an accident and in San Francisco, Cruise’s autonomous operations led to traffic
disruptions — local transit officials cited 92 unique incidents between 29th May and
31st December 2022.
Governments must:

■ Craft national legislation to ensure that autonomous vehicles can safely coexist with
a traditional vehicle fleet as well as a framework for their approval and registration.
■ Work closely with autonomous vehicle developers to ensure that first responders can
safely respond to road traffic and other emergencies and self-driving vehicles don’t
obstruct or hinder activities.
Autonomous mobility operators should:
■ Support consumer confidence in autonomous vehicle technology by remaining

focused on safety and an accident-free road environment.
Traditional fleet operators looking to adopt autonomous technology into their fleets
should:
■ Minimize the disruptive impact on driving jobs (bus, taxi and truck drivers) by
developing policies and programs to train and migrate these employees to other
roles.
Automotive manufacturers should:
■ Instigate a plan for how higher levels of autonomy can be deployed to vehicles being
designed and manufactured to future-proof vehicle purchases and enable future
functions-as-a-service revenue streams.
Sample Vendors
Aurora; AutoX; Baidu; Cruise; Mobileye; NVIDIA; Oxbotica; Pony.ai; Waymo; Zoox
Emerging Tech Impact Radar: Autonomous Vehicles, 2022
Lessons From Mining: 4 Autonomous Thing Benefit Zones for Manufacturers
Forecast Analysis: Autonomous Vehicle Net Additions, Internet of Things, Worldwide
Tech Providers 2025: Product Leaders Must Strategize to Win in the Evolving Robotaxi
Ecosystem

Climbing the Slope
Cloud AI Services
Analysis By: Van Baker, Bern Elliot
Definition:
AI cloud services provide AI model building tools, APIs for prebuilt services and associated
middleware that enable the building/training, deployment and consumption of machine
learning (ML) models running on prebuilt infrastructure as cloud services. These services
include vision and language services and automated ML to create new models and
customize prebuilt models.
The use of AI cloud services continues to increase. Vendors have introduced additional
services and solutions with fully integrated MLOps pipelines. The addition of low-code
tools has added to ease of use. Applications regularly use AI cloud services in language,
vision and automated ML to automate and accelerate business processes. Developers are
aware of these offerings, and are using both prebuilt and customized ML models in
applications.
Business Impact
The impact of AI extends to the applications that enable business, allowing developers
and data scientists to enhance the functionality of these applications. The desire for data-
driven decisions in business is driving the incorporation of forecasts and next best
actions, including automation of many workflows. AI cloud services enable the
embedding of advanced machine learning models in applications that are used to run the
day-to-day business operations.
Drivers
■ Opportunities to capitalize on new insights. The wealth of data from both internal
and third-party sources delivers insights that enable data-driven decision
intelligence.

■ Support demand for conversational interactions. The emergence of generative AI
and large language models facilitates conversationally enabled applications.
■ To meet business key performance indicators (KPIs). There is a mandate for

businesses to automate processes to improve accuracy, improve responsiveness
and reduce costs by deploying both AI and ML models.
■ Reduced barriers of entry. The ability to do zero-shot learning and model fine-tuning
has reduced the need for large quantities of data to train models. Access for
developers and citizen data scientists to AI and ML services due to the availability of
API callable cloud-hosted services will expand the use of AI.
■ AutoML as an enabler for custom development. Use of automated ML to customize

packaged services to address specific needs of the business is increasing.
■ A wide range of AI cloud services. AI cloud services from a range of specialized

providers in the market, including orchestration layers to streamline deployment of
solutions, are available.
■ Emerging AI model marketplaces. New marketplaces should help developers adopt

these techniques through AI cloud services.
Obstacles
■ Lack of understanding by developers and citizen data scientists about how to adapt
these services to specific use cases.
■ Pricing models for AI cloud services that are usage-based presents a risk for
businesses as the costs associated with use of these services can accrue rapidly.
■ Increased need for packaged solutions that utilize multiple services for developers
and citizen data scientists.
■ Lack of marketplaces for prebuilt ML models that can be adapted for specific
enterprise use cases.
■ Continuing need for ModelOps tools that enable integration of AI and ML models
into applications.
■ Lack of skills for developers to effectively implement these services in a responsible

manner.

■ Choose customizable AI cloud services over custom models to address a range of
use cases and for quicker deployment and scalability.
■ Improve chances of success of your AI strategy by experimenting with AI techniques

and cloud services, using the exact same dataset and selecting one that addresses
requirements. Consider using an A/B testing approach.
■ Use AI cloud services to build less complex models, giving the benefit of more
productive AI while freeing up your data science assets for higher-priority projects.
■ Empower non-data-scientists with features such as automated algorithm selection,

dataset preparation and feature engineering for project elements. Leverage existing
expertise on operating cloud services to assist technical professional teams.
■ Establish a center of excellence for responsible use of AI that includes all functional
areas of the business. This is especially important in light of the advances of
generative AI solutions.
Sample Vendors
Alibaba; Amazon Web Services; Baidu; Clarify; Google; H2O.ai; Huawei; IBM; Microsoft;
Tencent
Critical Capabilities for Cloud AI Developer Services
Magic Quadrant for Cloud AI Developer Services
Intelligent Applications
Analysis By: Alys Woodward, Justin Tung, Stephen Emmott

Definition:
Intelligent applications utilize learned adaptation to respond autonomously to people and

machines. While applications can behave intelligently, intelligent applications are
intelligent. Rule-based approaches, dependent upon conditional logic are giving way to
math-based training to elicit an appropriate response across a broader range of
circumstances, including those that are new or unique. This enables the augmentation
and automation of work across a broader range of scenarios and use cases.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the current competitive play for enterprise applications with
many technology providers now enabling AI and machine learning (ML) in their products
via inbuilt, added, proxied or custom capabilities. Bringing intelligence into applications
enables them to work autonomously across a wider range of scenarios with elevated
quality and productivity, and reduced risk. Integrated intelligence can also support
decision-making processes alongside transactional processes.
Business Impact
Three core benefits to organizations buying or augmenting intelligent applications are:
■ Automation — They increase automated and dynamic decision making, reducing the
cost and unreliability of human intervention, and improve the effectiveness of
business processes.
■ Augmentation — They increase the quality of dynamic decision making based on

context and risk, whether automated or via improved decision support.
■ Contextualization — Applications can adapt to the context of the user or process.

Drivers
■ The hype wave for large language models (LLMs) and applications built upon them
like OpenAI’s ChatGPT have inspired business users to use conversational user
interfaces (UIs) wherever possible. Conversational UIs, while a part of AI, are more
about improving the interface and less about adding intelligence to the application.
This is despite the fact that ML is the most widespread and impactful enabler for
intelligent applications because it allows features like recommendations, insights
and personalization. Wider incorporation of chat-based interfaces will blur the line
between interface and intelligence in an easily composable manner.
■ AI capabilities and features are increasingly being integrated into ERP, CRM, digital
workplace, supply chain and knowledge management software within enterprise
application suites. LLMs can be added on top to replace interfaces.
■ Organizations are demanding more functionalities from applications, whether built

or bought, expecting them to enhance current processes for both transactions and
decision making with recommendations, insights and additional information. This in
turn allows vendors to deliver higher value and drive higher prices.
■ The trend toward composable business architectures has highlighted the

possibilities around delivering advanced and flexible capabilities to support,
augment and automate decisions. It required an underlying data fabric and
packaged capabilities to build this, but LLMs used as a composable interface layer
could kick-start the ability to deliver on the composable architecture.
■ Vendor investment in intelligent applications in the form of adding intelligent

components achieves higher ROI. In the 2022 AI technology benchmark survey of
intelligent applications vendors, the median number of customers (end-user
organizations) adopting intelligent applications was 35%, and the median return on
investment for vendors was 25x of their initial investment.

Obstacles
■ Lack of data — Intelligent applications require access to data from a range of

systems, meaning application vendors need to think about data management
technology and processes outside their own solutions.
■ Adding AI adds complexity to operations — Models have to be trained and

maintained, and users must understand the latency of the data. Contextualizing
insights requires business metadata.
■ Overuse of AI in marketing — Vendors sometimes neglect the focus on business

impact, which can generate a cynical response in business buyers, particularly when
AI has not delivered value in the past.
■ Trust in system-generated insights — It takes time for business users to see the
benefit and trust such insights and some explainability is key.
■ The rapid rise of conversational AI UIs — Since December 2022, the rise of ChatGPT
and similar applications has sparked great interest and activity in chat interfaces,
and adds the ability to compose a conversational layer on top of existing legacy
applications.
■ Challenge your packaged software providers to outline in their product roadmaps

and/or ecosystems how they are incorporating AI to add business value in the form
of a range of AI technologies.
■ Evaluate the architecture of your providers by considering that the best-in-class

intelligent applications are built from the ground up to be constantly collecting data
from other systems, with a solid data layer in the form of a data fabric.
■ Prioritize investments in specialized and domain-specific intelligent applications

delivered as point solutions, which help solve problem areas such as customer
engagement and service, talent acquisition, collaboration, and engagement.
■ Bring AI components into your composable enterprise to innovate faster and safer, to
reduce costs by building reusability, and to lay the foundation for business-IT
partnerships. Remain aware of what makes AI different, particularly how to refresh
ML models to avert implementation and usage challenges.

Sample Vendors
ClayHR; Creatio; Eightfold AI; JAGGAER; Prevedere; Pricefx; Salesforce; Sievo; SugarCRM;
Trust Science
Top Tech Provider Trend for 2023: Intelligent Applications
Emerging Tech: Intelligent Applications Vendors Invest to Differentiate — Benchmark

Findings
Strategic Roadmap for the Composable Future of Applications
Data Labeling and Annotation

Analysis By: Svetlana Sicular, Alexander Linden, Anthony Mullen
Definition:
Data labeling and annotation (DL&A) is a process where data assets are further classified,
segmented, annotated and augmented to enrich data for better analytics and artificial
intelligence (AI) projects. Associated services and platforms route and allocate these
tasks to both internal staff and external third-party knowledge workers to optimally
manage the required workflows and thus improve the quality of training data.
The need for better training data has increased to remove the bottleneck in developing AI
solutions — especially those particular to generative AI and industry use cases. Given the
typical lack of internal skills and systems, DL&A services and tools are often the best
option (by cost, quality and availability) to provide necessary data for best AI results.
Today, at least, some AI solutions would not be possible at their current levels without
human-based labeling and its further automation.
Business Impact
Major impacts of DL&A are:

■ Enables AI solutions where they may not have been possible before due to lack of
training data
■ Improves accuracy of foundation models, mostly via reinforcement learning with

human feedback (RLHF)
■ Adjusts generative AI outcomes to organization-specific needs
■ Drives higher performance of AI solutions because of richer, annotated datasets
■ Speeds times around model development — can flex to accommodate varying

workloads
■ Can support a reboot of metadata management practices
Drivers
Growth of investments in AI:
■ Increased exploitation of pretrained, off-the-shelf models: When models are

pretrained, data is the main means for customization and fine-tuning of the models.
■ Increased diversity of use cases: These services can accelerate and unlock a wealth
of use cases across all industries, and core competencies in natural language
automation and computer vision. Vendors in the marketplace today have dedicated
offerings for commerce, robotics and autonomous vehicles, retail, GIS/maps, AR/VR,
agriculture, finance, manufacturing and transportation, and communications.
■ A shift from tactical to strategic offerings: Some language-centric platforms such

as insight engines, semantic AI platforms and intelligent document processing
solutions connect labeling tasks to master metadata management, yielding reusable
strategic assets like taxonomies, ontologies and knowledge graphs.
■ Major AI vendors offer DL&A crowdsourced and automated services to streamline

the AI process on their AI and ML platforms.
Rise of generative AI:
■ Growth of large language model (LLM) offerings: Natural language technology

workload outsourcing for speech, conversational AI and document labeling is a
major area of growth in this market. The DL&A market is expanding beyond row data
to look at corpora quality to make LLMs more performant.

■ RLHF, a type of LLM fine-tuning, involves a reward model that rates how good a
model’s response is from the perspective of a human labeler — this guides the
model’s learning process. The process involves human-labeled prompts and labeling
preferred responses.
■ Generative AI methods allow lowering the cost of DL&A through automation. LLMs
are increasingly used to extract labels from text data through zero-shot learning.
Obstacles
■ Challenger methods: Few-shot learning, transfer learning, synthetic data, semantic

platforms and data marketplaces compete for use.
■ Third-party worker quality: Challenges remain around third-party knowledge workers’

quality and security to annotate the data, somewhat ameliorated by the development
of reputation systems and prequalification tests.
■ No consolidation of AI-task-outsourcing marketplaces: The translation ecosystem,

the gig economy, and data labeling and annotation are as yet not a simplified,
coherent “language operation” for organizations.
■ Supply outstrips demand and price points are often uneconomical for large-scale
data: Many vendors have entered this space in the last few years, and demand from
buyers does not yet match supply. Pricing and business models vary considerably
among providers, and buyers find it difficult to estimate costs.
■ Security concerns: Especially for those DL&A services that bring in public crowds,
many clients feel uneasy distributing certain data to virtually unknown parties.

■ Design development and production workflows to leverage a mixture of internal and

external knowledge workers to support data labeling.
■ Prioritize DL&A automation options when possible.
■ Ensure the provider you choose has methods to test its pool of knowledge workers
for domain expertise and measures of accuracy and quality.
■ Model costs to avoid surprises by exploring and estimating the spend across the
variety of business models, which range from label volumes and project-based to per
annotator/seat costs.
■ Allow data scientists to focus on more valuable tasks and lighten their load in
classifying and annotating data by using DL&A services.
■ Use vendors with real-time human-in-the-loop solutions for production systems like
chatbots and recommenders to handle low-confidence thresholds, spikes in demand
or access to real-time knowledge not present in the enterprise.
■ Mature ad hoc tactical labeling activities to a systemwide in-the-line-of-work

approach to curate ongoing master metadata schemas.
Sample Vendors
CrowdWorks; Defined.ai; Diffgram; Heartex; Isahit; Labelbox; Mindy Support; Scale AI;
Snorkel AI
Best Practices for the Responsible Use of Natural Language Technologies
Market Guide for AI-Enabled Translation Services
Emerging Tech: Tech Innovators in Synthetic Data for Image and Video Data — Domain-
Focused
Computer Vision
Analysis By: Nick Ingelbrecht, Shubhangi Vashisth

Definition:
Computer vision is a set of technologies that involve capturing, processing and analyzing
real-world images and videos to extract meaningful, contextual information from the
physical world.
Computer vision comprises a transformational collection of technologies that are

essential to sensing and understanding the physical environment. Computer vision
technology is driving innovation across many industries and use cases and is creating
unprecedented business applications and opportunities.
Business Impact
Computer vision technologies are used across all industries and address a broad and
growing range of business applications. These include physical security, retail and
commercial property, automotive, robotics, healthcare, manufacturing, supply
chain/logistics, banking and finance, agriculture, government, media and entertainment,
and Internet of Things (IoT). Computer vision exploits the visible and nonvisible spectrum,
including infrared, hyperspectral imaging, lidar, radar and ultraviolet.
Drivers
Computer vision adoption is being driven by improvements in the application of machine

learning methods, tools and services, hardware processing efficiencies, and data
generation and augmentation techniques:
■ New neural network architectures, models and algorithm enhancements are

steadily improving the price/performance of computer vision applications;
combinations of CNNs and vision transformers are delivering leading levels of
performance; model compression and chip advancement enable larger workloads to
be run on edge devices.

■ The economics of computer vision are being enhanced by the growth of the market
for computer vision tools and services. These include annotation and data
preparation services and automated machine learning (autoML) capabilities,
reaching across computer vision data pipelines, from model development and
training through to deployment and model management, maintenance, and
governance.
■ The proliferation of cameras and other sensors is generating exponential increases

in image data, creating a critical and growing demand for methods to automate
analysis and manage and extract value from that data. Dynamic vision systems and
lower cost lidar products are opening new areas for innovation.
■ Edge-enabled cloud frameworks, developer ecosystems, products and support are

further expanding the opportunity and enabling non-experts to train and deploy their
own computer vision models.
■ New business models and applications are emerging, ranging from smartphone
cameras and fun filters, through to global video content production and distribution,
life-saving medical image diagnostics, autonomous vehicles, video surveillance for
security, robotics and manufacturing automation.
■ Sensor fusion, multimodal analysis, generative AI, multispectral and hyperspectral

imaging are expanding the opportunities.
■ Improved reliability, price, performance and functionality are generating compelling

business value and driving adoption.
Obstacles
Enterprises struggle with how best to exploit their visual information assets and automate
the analysis of exponential volumes of image data:
■ High-end systems are expensive to maintain and support, and building business
cases with adequate ROI is challenging.
■ The computer vision market lacks independent standardization and performance

benchmarks, and advanced solutions are far from being commoditized.
■ Integration with existing systems is problematic due to a lack of open interfaces, off-
the-shelf solutions and plug-and-play capabilities.
■ Enterprises struggle to activate computer vision models in business processes and

face data security and privacy risks.

■ Scaling solutions is challenging due to the high levels of customization and service
support needed.
■ Adequate training and testing data may be hard or expensive to acquire, especially in
areas where available open-source computer vision datasets are declining.
■ Proprietary algorithms and patent pools deter innovation.
■ Assess change management impacts of computer vision projects on the

organization and its people.
■ Focus initially on a few small projects, using fail-fast approaches and scale the most
promising systems into production using cross-disciplinary teams.
■ Test production systems early in the real-world environment because lighting, color,
object disposition and movement can break computer vision solutions that worked
well in the development cycle.
■ Build internal computer vision competencies and processes for exploiting image and
video assets.
■ Exploit third-party computer vision tooling and services to accelerate data

preparation and reduce costs.
■ Evaluate legal, regulatory, commercial and reputational risks associated with

computer vision projects at the outset.
■ Reduce the barrier to computer vision adoption by addressing two of the main
challenges, lack of training data and costly and constrained hardware, by investing
in synthetic and augmented data solutions and model compression to improve
model performance and expand the range of more valuable use cases.
Sample Vendors
Amazon Web Services; Baidu; Clarifai; Deepomatic; Google; Matroid; Microsoft Azure;
Tencent
Emerging Technologies: Emergence Cycle for Computer Vision
Emerging Tech: Revenue Opportunity Projection of Computer Vision

Emerging Technologies: Computer Vision Is Advancing to Be Smarter, More Actionable
and on the Edge
Emerging Technologies Tool: Video Analytics Functionality Matrix
Emerging Technologies: Tech Innovators for Computer Vision
Appendixes
See the previous Hype Cycle: Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2022

Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels
Table 2: Hype Cycle Phases

Table 3: Benefit Ratings
Benefit Rating Definition
Transformational Enables new ways of doing business across

industries that will result in major shifts in
industry dynamics
High Enables new ways of performing horizontal

or vertical processes that will result in
significantly increased revenue or cost
savings for an enterprise
Moderate Provides incremental improvements to

established processes that will result in
increased revenue or cost savings for an
enterprise
Low Slightly improves processes (for example,

improved user experience) that will be
difficult to translate into increased revenue
or cost savings
Source: Gartner (July 2023)

Table 4: Maturity Levels
Document Revision History

Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2022 - 8 July 2022
Hype Cycle for Smart Machines, 2016 - 21 July 2016
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Table 1: Priority Matrix for Artificial Intelligence, 2023
Benefit Years to Mainstream Adoption
Less Than 2 Years 2 - 5 Years 5 - 10 Years More Than 10 Years
Transformational Computer Vision Composite AI Autonomic Systems Artificial General Intelligence

Decision Intelligence Autonomous Vehicles
First-Principles AI Foundation Models
Generative AI Neuromorphic Computing
Intelligent Applications Responsible AI
High Data Labeling and AI Maker and Teaching Kits AI Engineering Neuro-Symbolic AI
Annotation AI TRiSM AI Simulation
Edge AI Causal AI ModelOps
Cloud AI Services Multiagent Systems
Data-Centric AI Operational AI Systems
Knowledge Graphs Smart Robots
Prompt Engineering
Synthetic Data
Moderate
Low
Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 1A of 4A

Table 2: Hype Cycle Phases
Phase Definition
Innovation Trigger A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event

generates significant media and industry interest.
Peak of Inflated Expectations During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of
well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but
more failures, as the innovation is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises
making money are conference organizers and content publishers.
Trough of Disillusionment Because the innovation does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it
rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few
cautionary tales.
Slope of Enlightenment Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse
range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the innovation’s
applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial off-the-shelf methodologies and
tools ease the development process.
Plateau of Productivity The real-world benefits of the innovation are demonstrated and accepted.
Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second
and third generations. Growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable
with the reduced level of risk; the rapid growth phase of adoption begins.
Approximately 20% of the technology’s target audience has adopted or is
adopting the technology as it enters this phase.
Years to Mainstream Adoption The time required for the innovation to reach the Plateau of Productivity.

Phase Definition
Table 3: Benefit Ratings
Benefit Rating Definition
Transformational Enables new ways of doing business across industries that will result in
major shifts in industry dynamics
High Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical processes that will
result in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise
Moderate Provides incremental improvements to established processes that will result

in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise
Low Slightly improves processes (for example, improved user experience) that will
be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings

Table 4: Maturity Levels
Maturity Levels Status Products/Vendors
Embryonic In labs None
Emerging Commercialization by vendors First generation

Pilots and deployments by industry leaders High price
Much customization
Adolescent Maturing technology capabilities and process Second generation

understanding Less customization
Uptake beyond early adopters
Early mainstream Proven technology Third generation

Vendors, technology and adoption rapidly evolving More out-of-box methodologies
Mature mainstream Robust technology Several dominant vendors

Not much evolution in vendors or technology
Legacy Not appropriate for new developments Maintenance revenue focus

Cost of migration constraints replacement
Obsolete Rarely used Used/resale market only

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What are some of the technologies discussed in the hype cycle?

What are some of the technologies discussed in the hype cycle?

What stage of the hype cycle is generative AI currently in?

What stage of the hype cycle is generative AI currently in?

Hype Cycle for Artiﬁcial Intelligence, 2023

Published 19 July 2023 - ID G00791179 - 123 min read

By Analyst(s): Afraz Jaffri

Generative artiﬁcial intelligence and ChatGPT have elevated AI

■ Summary Translation: Hype Cycle for Artiﬁcial Intelligence, 2023

More on This Topic

■ 2023 Hype Cycles: Deglobalization, AI at the Cusp and Operational Sustainability

Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 1 of 109

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The innovations that will be fueled by generative AI:

Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 2 of 109

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The innovations that will fuel generative AI advancement:

■ Data labeling and annotation

Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 3 of 109

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The Priority Matrix

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Off the Hype Cycle

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Benefit Rating: Transformational

Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience

Autonomic systems are self-managing physical or software systems, performing domain-

Why This Is Important

Autonomic systems excel where:

■ Conventional automation applying composite AI techniques is inadequate, or using

■ It is impractical to provide real-time human guidance, or training conditions can’t be

Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 6 of 109

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Autonomic systems are the culmination of a three-part trend:

■ Autonomous systems go beyond simple automation to add independent behavior.

■ Autonomic systems exhibit adaptive behavior through learning and self-modifying

Longer-term drivers include:

■ Autonomic behavior is a spectrum. For example, chatbots learn from internet

■ Substantial academic research is underway on autonomics, which will result in more

Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 7 of 109

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■ Social concerns: Misbehavior, nondeterminism or lack of understanding could

■ Start by building experience with autonomous systems ﬁrst to understand the

■ Optimize the beneﬁts of autonomic technologies by piloting them in situations, such

Adapdix; IBM; Latent AI; Playtika; Vanti

Gartner Recommended Reading

Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2022: Autonomic Systems

Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 8 of 109

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Benefit Rating: Transformational

Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience

First-principles AI (FPAI) (aka physics-informed AI) incorporates physical and analog

Why This Is Important

Physically consistent and scientiﬁcally sound AI models can signiﬁcantly improve

Gartner, Inc. | G00791179 Page 9 of 109

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