Lecture 4 IMB 516
Lecture 4 IMB 516
Lecture 4 IMB 516
IMB 516
Experimental design is a very powerful problem solving technique that assists industrial
engineers for tackling quality control problems effectively and economically.
Experiments in companies are often conducted in a series of trials or tests that produce
quantifiable outcomes.
This approach depends upon guesswork, luck, experience, and intuition for its
success. Moreover, this type of experimentation requires large resources to obtain
a limited amount of information about the process.
Goal
The goal of a study is to find out the relationships between certain explanatory
factors and response variables.
An experimental study aims to answer the question: whether there is a
cause-and-effect relationship between the explanatory factor and the
response variable.
more efficient.
Replications
The randomized block design takes account of known factors that affect
outcome/response but are not of primary interest.
For this hypothetical example, the matched pairs design is an improvement over a
completely randomized design. Like the completely randomized design, the
matched pairs design uses randomization to control for confounding.
Type I and Type II Errors and Their Application
Type I and Type II errors are used for quality engineering, and are related to
hypothesis testing.
A Type II error (beta) is the probability of failing to reject a false null hypothesis.
Experimental errors
1. Producer’s risk
2. False alarm
3. error
1. Consumer’s risk
2. Misdetection
3. error
Calculations of type I and type II error
Example: A certain type of cold vaccine is known to be only 25% effective after a period of
2 years. To determine if a new vaccine is superior in providing protection against the same
virus for a longer period of time. 20 people are chosen at random and inoculated. If 9
people or more of chosen people receiving the new vaccine surpass the 2 year period
without contracting the virus, then the new vaccine will be more superior to the one
presently in use.
Solution:
● H0: The new vaccine is equally effective after a period of 2 years as the one
commonly used. Therefore p=0.25
● H1: The new vaccine is more effective after a period of 2 years as the one commonly
used. Therefore p>0.25
Calculations of type I and type II error
A type I error will occur when 9 or more individuals surpass the 2 year period without
contracting the virus using a new vaccine that is equivalent to the one in use.
∝= P(type I error)
= P(X≥9 l p=0.25) β= P(type II error)
20 We are using P(X<9 l p=0.5)
= ∑ b(x:20,0.25) Binomial sums 8
x=9
8
= ∑ b(x:20,0.5)
x=0
= 1- ∑ b(x:20,0.25)
x=0 = 0.2517
= 1-0.9591
= 0.0409
The probability of committing a type II error, is impossible to
compute unless if we have a specific alternative hypothesis. In
our example we are testing a null hypothesis that p = 0.25
against the alternative hypothesis that p = 0.5
This method Binomial sums is a poor test procedure as compared to normal curve approximation.
∝= P(type I error)
= P(X≥9 l p=0.25)
= ∑ b(x:20,0.25)
Normal curve approximation of type I and type
II error
For our vaccine problem let’s assume the critical value is 36.5, using 100 random sample that means
all values above 36.5 constitute the critical region while all below 36.5 fall in the acceptance region.
Lets recall that OFAT means varying a one factor at a time to evaluate the effects of
various factors on the output.
Problems:
1. We are not able to know the interaction of various factors with each other.
● The interaction means the effects of one factor depends on setting of
another factor
2. We are not able to find the optimum setting of the factor to set the best
outcome.
3. We will get a limited knowledge about the product and process performance.
Terms and Concepts
Factor or (explanatory variable): Is an independent variable that may affect the response and of which
different levels are used in an experiment.
Response variable: It is an output variable that shows the observed results or value of an experimental
treatment which we want to optimize.
Where:
● n = number of runs
● L = number of levels
● F= number of factors
Case study: Machining Problem
The machine operator can vary the feed, speed, temp of
the cooling process
The feed,speed and temperature are called In this experiment we have 3 factors and 2 levels (low &
factors or independent variables High) therefore we have a total of 8 experimental runs.
(Replicates)
Other independent variables that can not be
manipulated are hardness of the material, The replicates not the same due to experimental error.
humidity of the room that affect the surface 1. Drift in the factor level
finish 2. Variation in the measurements
3. The existence of noise factors