Probability [66 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 5] SPM.1.SL.TZ0.2

Let A and B be events such that P (A) ,
= 0.5 P (B) = 0.4 and
P (A ∪ B) = 0.6 .

Find P ( A | B). [5]

Markscheme

attempt to substitute into P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

(M1)

Note: Accept use of Venn diagram or other valid method.

0.6 = 0.5 + 0.4 − P (A ∩ B) (A1)

P (A ∩ B) = 0.3 (seen anywhere) A1

P(A∩B)
attempt to substitute into P ( A | B) = (M1)
P(B)

0.3
=
0.4

P ( A | B) = 0.75 (=
3

4
) A1

[5 marks]
2. [Maximum mark: 6] 22N.1.SL.TZ0.6
Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0. 3 and P(B) = 0. 8 .

(a) Determine the value of P(A ∩ B) in the case where the events A
and B are independent. [1]

Markscheme

P(A ∩ B) = 0. 24 A1

[1 mark]

(b) Determine the minimum possible value of P(A ∩ B). [3]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = 1. 1 − P(A ∩ B) (A1)

(0 ≤)P(A ∪ B)≤ 1 (M1)

Note: This may be conveyed in a clearly labelled diagram or written

explanation where P(A ∪ B) = 1

the minimum value of P(A ∩ B) is 0. 1 A1

[3 marks]

(c) Determine the maximum possible value of P(A ∩ B), justifying

your answer. [2]
Markscheme

A is a subset of B (so P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ). R1

Note: This may be conveyed in a clearly labelled diagram where A is

completely inside B, or in a written explanation indicating that
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)

so the maximum value of P(A ∩ B) is 0. 3 A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

[2 marks]
3. [Maximum mark: 6] 22M.2.SL.TZ1.6
Let A and B be two independent events such that P(A ∩ B' ) = 0. 16 and

P(A' ∩ B) = 0. 36 .

(a) Given that P(A ∩ B) = x , find the value of x. [4]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

EITHER

one of P(A)= x + 0. 16 OR P(B)= x + 0. 36 A1

OR

A1

THEN

attempt to equate their P(A ∩ B) with their expression for

P(A)×P(B) M1

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)×P(B)⇒ x =(x + 0. 16)×(x + 0. 36)

A1
 x = 0. 24 A1

METHOD 2

attempt to form at least one equation in P(A) and P(B) using

independence M1

(P(A ∩ B')= P(A)×P (B')⇒) P(A)×(1 − P(B))= 0. 16 OR

(P(A' ∩ B)= P(A')×P (B)⇒) (1 − P(A))×P(B)= 0. 36

P(A)= 0. 4 and P(B)= 0. 6 A1

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)×P(B)= 0. 4 × 0. 6 (A1)

x = 0. 24 A1

[4 marks]

(b) Find P(A' B' ) . [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

recognising P(A' B' )= P(A') (M1)

= 1 − 0. 16 − 0. 24

= 0. 6 A1

METHOD 2

P(B)= 0. 36 + 0. 24(= 0. 6)
 P ( A'∩B' )
P(A' B' )= (=
0.24

0.4
) (A1)
P ( B' )

= 0. 6 A1

[2 marks]
4. [Maximum mark: 6] 22M.2.SL.TZ2.4
Events A and B are independent and P(A) = 3P(B) .

Given that P(A ∪ B) = 0. 68 , find P(B). [6]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = P(A)+P(B)−P(A ∩ B) = 0. 68

substitution of P(A)⋅P(B) for P(A ∩ B) in P(A ∪ B) (M1)

P(A)+P(B)−P(A)P(B) (= 0. 68)

substitution of 3P(B) for P(A) (M1)

3P(B)+P(B)−3P(B)P(B)= 0. 68 (or equivalent) (A1)

Note: The first two M marks are independent of each other.

attempts to solve their quadratic equation (M1)

1 17
P(B) = 0. 2, 1. 133 … ( , )
5 15

P(B) = 0. 2 (=
1

5
) A2

Note: Award A1 if both answers are given as final answers for P(B).

[6 marks]
5. [Maximum mark: 5] 21N.1.SL.TZ0.4
Box 1 contains 5 red balls and 2 white balls.

Box 2 contains 4 red balls and 3 white balls.

(a) A box is chosen at random and a ball is drawn. Find the probability
that the ball is red. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach to find P(R) (M1)

tree diagram (must include probabilty of picking box) with correct

required probabilities

OR P(R ∩ B1 )+P(R ∩ B2 ) OR
P(R B1 )P(B1 )+P(R B2 )P(B2 )

7
⋅
1

2
+
4

7
⋅
1

2
(A1)

P(R)=
9

14
A1

[3 marks]

(b) Let A be the event that “box 1 is chosen” and let R be the event that
“a red ball is drawn”.

Determine whether events A and R are independent. [2]

Markscheme

events A and R are not independent, since 9

14
⋅
1

2
≠
5

14
OR
5

7
≠
9

14
OR 5

9
≠
1

2
OR an explanation e.g. different number of red balls in each box
A2

Note: Both conclusion and reasoning are required. Do not split the
A2.

[2 marks]
6. [Maximum mark: 8] 21M.2.SL.TZ2.4
At a school, 70% of the students play a sport and 20% of the students are
involved in theatre. 18% of the students do neither activity.

A student is selected at random.

At the school 48% of the students are girls, and 25% of the girls are involved in
theatre.

A student is selected at random. Let G be the event “the student is a girl” and let
T be the event “the student is involved in theatre”.

(a) Find the probability that the student plays a sport and is involved in
theatre. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

P(S)+P(T )+P(S' ∩ T ')−P(S ∩ T )= 1 OR

P(S ∪ T )= P((S' ∩ T ')') (M1)

0. 7 + 0. 2 + 0. 18 − P(S ∩ T )= 1 OR P(S ∪ T )= 1 − 0. 18

OR

a clearly labelled Venn diagram (M1)

THEN

P (S ∩ T )= 0. 08 (accept 8%) A1

Note: To obtain the M1 for the Venn diagram all labels must be
correct and in the correct sections. For example, do not accept 0. 7 in
 the area corresponding to S ∩ T '.

[2 marks]

(b) Find the probability that the student is involved in theatre, but does
not play a sport. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

P(T ∩ S')= P(T )−P(T ∩ S)(= 0. 2 − 0. 08) OR

P(T ∩ S')= P(T ∪ S)−P(S)(= 0. 82 − 0. 7) (M1)

OR

a clearly labelled Venn diagram including P(S), P(T ) and

P(S ∩ T ) (M1)

THEN

= 0. 12 (accept 12%) A1

[2 marks]

(c) Find P(G ∩ T ). [2]

Markscheme

P(G ∩ T )= P(T /G)P(G) (0. 25 × 0. 48) (M1)

 = 0. 12 A1

[2 marks]

(d) Determine if the events G and T are independent. Justify your

answer. [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

P(G)×P(T )(= 0. 48 × 0. 2)= 0. 096 A1

P(G)×P(T )≠P(G ∩ T )⇒ G and T are not independent R1

METHOD 2

P(T G )= 0. 25 A1

P(T G )≠ P(T )⇒ G and T are not independent R1

Note: Do not award A0R1.

[2 marks]
7. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.T_14
Andre will play in the semi-final of a tennis tournament.

If Andre wins the semi-final he will progress to the final. If Andre loses the semi-
final, he will not progress to the final.

If Andre wins the final, he will be the champion.

The probability that Andre will win the semi-final is p. If Andre wins the semi-
final, then the probability he will be the champion is 0. 6.

The probability that Andre will not be the champion is 0. 58.

(a) Complete the values in the tree diagram.

[1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may

contain minor differences in marking or structure. It appeared in a
paper that permitted the use of a calculator, and so might not be
suitable for all forms of practice.
 (A1) (C1)

Note: Award (A1) for the correct pair of probabilities.

[1 mark]

(b) Find the value of p. [2]

Markscheme

p × 0. 4 +(1 − p)= 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying and adding correct probabilities

for losing equated to 0. 58.

OR

p × 0. 6 = 1 − 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying correct probabilities for winning

equated to 1 − 0. 58 or 0. 42.
 (p =) 0. 7 (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from their part (a). Award the final (A1)(ft) only
if their p is within the range 0 < p < 1.

[2 marks]

(c) Given that Andre did not become the champion, find the probability
that he lost in the semi-final. [3]

Markscheme

(A1)(ft)(A1)
0.3 1−0.7
( )
0.58 0.58

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through

from part (b). Award (A1) for the correct denominator.

OR

0.3

0.3+0.7×0.4
(A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through

from part (b). Award (A1)(ft) for their correct calculation of Andre
losing the semi-final or winning the semi-final and then losing in the
final. Follow through from their parts (a) and (b).

15

29
(0. 517, 0. 517241 … , 51. 7%) (A1)(ft) (C3)

Note: Follow through from parts (a) and (b).

[3 marks]
8. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.T_6
Srinivasa places the nine labelled balls shown below into a box.

Srinivasa then chooses two balls at random, one at a time, from the box. The first
ball is not replaced before he chooses the second.

(a.i) Find the probability that the first ball chosen is labelled A. [1]

Markscheme

9
(
1

3
, 0. 333, 0. 333333 … , 33. 3%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find the probability that the first ball chosen is labelled A or labelled
N. [1]

Markscheme

9
(0. 556, 0. 555555 … , 55. 6%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

(b) Find the probability that the second ball chosen is labelled A, given
that the first ball chosen was labelled N. [2]

Markscheme

8
(0. 375, 37. 5%) (A1)(A1) (C2)
 Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(c) Find the probability that both balls chosen are labelled N. [2]

Markscheme

9
×
1

8
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a correct compound probability calculation

seen.

72
(
1

36
, 0. 0278, 0. 0277777 … , 2. 78%) (A1) (C2)

[2 marks]
9. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.S_1
In a class of 30 students, 19 play tennis, 3 play both tennis and volleyball, and 6
do not play either sport.

The following Venn diagram shows the events “plays tennis” and “plays
volleyball”. The values t and v represent numbers of students.

(a.i) Find the value of t. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach to find t (M1)

eg t + 3 = 19, 19 − 3

t = 16 (may be seen on Venn diagram) A1 N2

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Find the value of v. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach to find v (M1)

 eg t + 3 + v + 6 = 30, 30 − 19 − 6

v = 5 (may be seen on Venn diagram) A1 N2

[2 marks]

(b) Find the probability that a randomly selected student from the class
plays tennis or volleyball, but not both. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg , students, 1 − ,
3+6
16 + 5 21
30

A1 N2
21 7
(= )
30 10

[2 marks]
10. [Maximum mark: 12] 20N.2.SL.TZ0.T_2
On a school excursion, 100 students visited an amusement park. The amusement
park’s main attractions are rollercoasters (R), water slides (W), and virtual reality
rides (V).

The students were asked which main attractions they visited. The results are
shown in the Venn diagram.

A total of 74 students visited the rollercoasters or the water slides.

(a.i) Find the value of a. [2]

Markscheme

74 −(32 + 12 + 10 + 9 + 5) OR 74 − 68 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression.

(a =) 6 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
(a.ii) Find the value of b. [2]

Markscheme

100 −(74 + 18) (M1)

OR

100 − 92 (M1)

OR

100 −(32 + 9 + 5 + 12 + 10 + 18 + 6) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression. Follow through

from part (a)(i) but only for a ≥ 0.

(b =) 8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part(a)(i). The value of b must be greater

or equal to zero for the (A1)(ft) to be awarded.

[2 marks]

(b) Find the number of students who visited at least two types of main
attraction. [2]

Markscheme

9 + 5 + 12 + 10 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for adding 9, 5, 12 and 10.

 36 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(c) Write down the value of n( R ∩ W ) . [1]

Markscheme

14 (A1)

[1 mark]

(d.i) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the
rollercoasters. [2]

Markscheme

58

100
(
29

50
, 0. 58, 58%) (A1)(A1)(G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator. Award(A1) for the correct
denominator. Award (A0) for 58 only.

[2 marks]

(d.ii) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the
virtual reality rides. [1]

Markscheme

(A1)(ft)
45 9
( , 0. 45, 45%)
100 20
 Note: Follow through from their denominator from part (d)(i).

[1 mark]

(e) Hence determine whether the events in parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii) are
independent. Justify your reasoning. [2]

Markscheme

they are not independent (A1)(ft)

58

100
×
45

100
≠
17

100
OR 0. 261 ≠ 0. 17 (R1)

Note: Comparison of numerical values must be seen for (R1) to be

awarded.
Do not award (A1)(R0). Follow through from parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii).

[2 marks]

© International Baccalaureate Organization, 2023