Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth

Brian Vad Mathiesen a,*, Henrik Lund a, Kenneth Karlsson b
a
Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark
b
Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are generally considered costly with world leaders often engaging
Received 10 September 2009 in debate concerning the costs of mitigation and the distribution of these costs between different coun-
Received in revised form 18 February 2010 tries. In this paper, the analyses and results of the design of a 100% renewable energy system by the year
Accepted 1 March 2010
2050 are presented for a complete energy system including transport. Two short-term transition target
Available online 31 March 2010
years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The energy systems are analysed
and designed with hour-by-hour energy system analyses. The analyses reveal that implementing energy
Keywords:
savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socio-economic
100% Renewable energy systems
Energy system analyses
effects, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as
Transport health effects are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100% Renewable energy systems will
Energy savings be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared to the busi-
Combined heat and power ness-as-usual energy system. Hence, the current debate between leaders should reflect a combination
Socio-economics of these two main challenges.
Job creation Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction by James Hansen from NASA, among others, indicate that this level
is no longer sufficient. The most recent observations and model
If temperature increases are to be held between 2 and 2.4 °C, calculations show that a reduction to 350 ppm CO2 in the atmo-
the concentration of CO2 equivalents in the atmosphere should sphere may be necessary, or even that anthropologically emitted
be kept below between 445 and 490 ppm, according to the most climate gases must be avoided entirely in order to avoid irrepara-
recent report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel ble damage [3–5]. In August 2009, the Chairman of the IPCC, recog-
on Climate Change from 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Cli- nised this point and stated that he now supports a 350 ppm CO2
mate Change 2007 (AR4) [1]. As the concentration of greenhouse maximum instead of the 450 ppm in AR4 from 2007.
gases has already reached about 450 ppm CO2 equivalents in In the USA, the European Union and China, among others, poli-
2005, the IPCC has estimated that the discharge of greenhouse cies have been formulated with the objective of decreasing emis-
gases must peak as soon as possible, no later than the year 2015. sions. And in many nations around the world, policies to raise
Furthermore, the discharge of greenhouse gases must be reduced the share of renewable energy are being initiated as part of the glo-
by 50–85% by 2050 compared with the year 2000. These reductions bal response to climate change. The major debate occurring in
should lie closer to 85% than 50% to ensure a maximum of 2 °C in- many countries is mostly concerned with the costs of mitigating
crease. It is estimated that discharges per person must be reduced greenhouse gases.
to between 0.8 and 2.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalents per person per Often, the debate about measures to mitigate greenhouse gases
year. between world leaders is intertwined with other issues. These is-
Even with a 2 °C increase, significant changes in the climates of sues reflect the current geopolitical situation, the current interde-
individual regions and the world at large are inevitable. However, pendency between countries in the demand and supply of energy
it can be ensured that climate change does not accelerate beyond products, or issues regarding the negotiations between developed
the point where the effects become self-reinforcing. In August and developing countries in e.g. the World Trade Organisation
2009, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 387 ppm (WTO). While costs have always been a central issue in the climate
[2]. The 2 °C increase estimate was based on a reduction to 350– debate, as well as concerns regarding human equality. Recently,
400 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. However, the latest IPCC report since the Poznan COP14 conference and the Copenhagen Accord
from 2007 is based on data from 2005, and the latest results found from the COP15, the debate on costs and on transactions between
developed and undeveloped countries has also reflected the inter-
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +45 9940 7218. national financial crisis. Developing countries have used the situa-
E-mail address: bvm@plan.aau.dk (B.V. Mathiesen). tion to emphasise the need for further aid and support. Also some

0306-2619/$ - see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.03.001
 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501 489

developed countries, small and large, as well as members of the G8 projection to 2030 from the Danish Energy Authority (DEA) has
and G20, have expressed the need to have lower goals than initially been used [37]. Utilizing the same methodology, a business-as-
discussed because of tight national budgets in the midst of the usual projection has been extended towards 2050 in the IDA Cli-
financial crisis. mate Plan 2050. The analyses presented here builds on the experi-
An active energy policy has already led to remarkable results in ence and analyses in previous analyses of 100% renewable energy
the decrease of emissions in Denmark which illustrates that a lot systems [7–10]. However the technical and economic analyses
can be done with existing technologies while maintaining eco- are more comprehensive and include a short-term target year, a
nomic growth [6]. Over a period of 35 years, Denmark has man- business-as-usual projection to 2050, as well as the first estimates
aged to stabilise its primary energy supply through energy of the socio-economic costs of a 100% renewable energy system for
savings, and very high penetrations of wind power and combined Denmark. Job effects and effects on health costs are also analysed.
heat and power (CHP). The primary energy demand is the same to-
day as it was before the first oil crisis in the early 70s; however,
CO2-emissions are still high. In his opening speech to the Danish 2. Methodology
Parliament in October 2006, the Prime Minister announced the
long-term target for Denmark: 100% independence from fossil The methodology for analysing technologies in the renewable
fuels and nuclear power when Danish domestic oil and gas re- energy systems, and for assessing the technical and socio-eco-
sources run out. A few months later, the Danish Association of nomic consequences, can be divided into three parts. The data
Engineers put forward a proposal on how and when to achieve and technology input phase, the phase for adjusting energy sys-
such targets [7–10], hence the active policy has the potential to tems technically and insuring flexibility, and finally the main tech-
continue after several years of inaction. nological and socio-economic results. In addition, fuel prices and
While some world leaders emphasise that the financial crisis is CO2-qouta prices are essential to the analyses [36].
a showstopper regarding the mitigation of greenhouse gases, oth- There are four overall goals in the project:
ers contend that this is a golden opportunity to make these
changes and create new jobs, which are not based on the notion  To reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by 90% in 2050.
of abundant fossil fuels. The Danish case shows that a lot can be  To maintain Denmark’s self-sufficiency with energy.
done with existing technology while ensuring economic growth  To enlarge Denmark’s position with regard to trade in the cli-
and developing new industries [6]. The question then becomes, mate and energy sectors.
what consequences might arise as a result of following a path to-  To expand the economy and prosperity of Denmark.
wards a 100% renewable energy system?
In analysing such energy systems, often only single technology The target of maintaining security of supply refers to the fact
groups are analysed, such as the technologies for wind integration: that Denmark, at present, is a net exporter of energy due to the
CHP plants, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, electroly- production of oil and natural gas in the North Sea. However, the re-
sers, heat pumps, district heating and thermal storages [11–17]. serves are expected to last for only a few more decades. Conse-
Other studies often analyse island energy systems [18–23], or ana- quently, Denmark will soon either have to start importing energy
lyse the technical aspects of changes in total national energy sys- or develop domestic renewable energy alternatives. The targets
tems while lacking e.g. the economic side [24,25]. of expanding the economy are related to past experiences with sta-
In analysing 100% renewable energy systems, energy savings, bilising primary energy consumption and creating new industries.
efficient conversion technologies and the replacement of fossil
fuels with renewable energy are essential elements to consider
[26–29]. Others point out such systems as the importance of focus- 2.1. The creative innovation process
ing on the four pillars in future energy systems as a way to a third
industrial revolution [30,31]. The design of 100% renewable energy The Danish Association of Engineers appointed 2006 as the ‘‘En-
systems has to meet two major challenges. One challenge is to ergy year”, in which the organisation intended to make specific
integrate a high share of intermittent resources into the energy proposals to advocate an active energy policy in Denmark. The out-
system, especially concerning electricity supply [15,32–34]. The put here was the IDA Energy Plan 2030 [7–10]. In 2008, the process
other is to include the transportation sector in the proposed strat- of updating and expanding the analyses was initiated as a part of
egies [10,35]. the international project ‘‘Future Climate”, in which 13 engineering
In this paper, the possibilities to reduce the emission of green- associations from Sweden, Norway, Germany, India, United King-
house gases by 90% is analysed by using only renewable energy dom, Finland, USA, Japan, Australia, Ireland, Bulgaria and Denmark
sources; related socio-economic feasibility studies are concur- participated. The combined recommendations were presented in
rently presented. The analyses include: transport, the agricultural September 2009, and both the Danish and the other national doc-
and industrial parts of greenhouse gas emissions, the potential uments and analyses were based on a common set of parameters.
for increased exports as well as domestic job creation, and the total In the process of developing the scenarios in the IDA Climate
effects on health costs. Electricity market trade analyses and sensi- Plan 2050 for Denmark, the methodology applied to the design of
tivity analyses are also included. The paper thus presents technical a future renewable energy system included the combination of a
energy system analyses of the total system with a multitude of creative phase involving the inputs from experts, a detailed analyt-
interrelated technologies as opposed to just one technology or ical phase involving the technical and economic analyses of the
one category of effects. The final year of analysis is 2050, while overall system, and feed-back regarding each individual proposal.
two intermediate years are also analysed, 2015 and 2030. The In a forward and back process, each proposal was formed in such
methodology includes hour-by-hour simulations leading to the de- a way that it combined the best of the detailed expert knowledge
sign of flexible energy systems with the ability to balance electric- with the ability of the proposal to fit cohesively into the overall
ity supply and demand and to exchange electricity production on system in terms of technical innovation, efficient energy supply
the international electricity market. The paper describes the pro- and socio-economic feasibility. In addition, some of the proposals
cess, analyses and results of the IDA Climate Plan 2050 [36] from build on knowledge about the different technological components
the Danish Society of Engineers (IDA) which was completed in Au- relating to the integration of intermittent renewable resources.
gust 2009. As a point of departure, the latest business-as-usual Examples include: electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, district
490 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501

heating and individual heating systems, large-scale heat pumps, production and consumption with regard to the system’s fuel effi-
heat storages and electrolysers [15–17,29,38–40]. ciency and its ability to ensure stability of the electrical network. A
The work was divided into themes under which the following balance is identified between the intermittent renewable energy
three types of seminars were held in 2006: First, a status and production, CHP production, and electricity consumption, includ-
knowledge seminar; second, a future scenario seminar; and finally, ing flexible electricity consumption from heat pumps, electric
a roadmap seminar. The process was organised into approximately vehicles, etc. In addition, a corresponding balance is ensured be-
40 seminars and meetings with over 1600 participants, resulting in tween district heating consumption and heat production from so-
a number of suggestions and proposals on how each theme could lar heat facilities, industrial surplus heat, waste combined heat and
contribute to national targets. In 2009, the need for updates, power, centralised and decentralised combined heat and power,
amendments and adjustments had been identified through more geothermic energy, boilers, heat pumps and electrical cartridges.
than 10 workshops, seminars and conferences, as well as through The results of the analysis are, among other things, annual fuel
sub analyses. consumption and CO2-emissions which can be compared with a
corresponding analysis of the reference.
2.2. Fuel and CO2-prices The balance between consumption and production is ensured in
a closed energy system in which electricity is not traded on the
Three fuel price levels are used, the middle level is based on the international electricity market, but only traded within Denmark.
prices from the DEA corresponding to an oil price of $122/barrel. This ensures partly that an energy system is established where
The high prices from the spring/summer of 2008 are used for a high the domestic security of supply is intact and partly that Danish en-
price level of $132/barrel [41]. For the low price level, the low price ergy producers are not forced to export or to import at times when
assumptions which The DEA used in its projection from July 2008 the market price is not favourable. Apart from these consider-
at $60/barrel are used [42]. Calculations are also done with long- ations, it is ensured that electricity and biomass for the energy sys-
term CO2 quota prices of, respectively, 229 DKK/tonnes (30€) and tem can be supplied with domestic resources. This ensures a more
458 DKK/tonnes (60€). The CO2 quota price does not include all favourable position while trading in electricity and biomass with
costs to the economy, such as floods, but is only an anticipated foreign countries than with dependency on imports or exports at
quota price. certain times. It should be noted that the aim is not to avoid the
The analyses of the effects of international electricity exchange international trade of electricity or biomass, just that it should be
have been done with a starting point in which electricity prices in a considered as a step in the overall analysis.
normal year are assumed and with fluctuating fuel and CO2 quota The socio-economic costs are calculated as annual expenses in
prices. The net income is the combined calculation of import/ex- each of the years 2015, 2030 and 2050. The annual costs in the Cli-
port incomes including bottleneck incomes and various CO2 and mate Plan’s energy systems are compared with the costs in the ref-
fuel costs. This net income is compared to not electricity trading erence in the applicable years. The costs are allocated to fuel,
with the surrounding countries. operations and maintenance expenditures, and capital investment.
A real interest rate in the economy of 3% is used for the deprecia-
2.3. Analysis methodology tion of facilities. Also, the marginal costs and effects on CO2-emis-
sions of each proposal have also been calculated in both the
Technical energy system analyses and estimates of economic reference for 2030 energy system and IDA 2030.
consequences have been done for 2015 and 2030 in which the nec-
essary changes towards the long-term goal in 2050 have been ini-
2.4. The energyPLAN energy system analysis model
tiated. The proposed energy systems are called IDA 2015, IDA 2030
and IDA 2050.
In all the EnergyPLAN systems, the analyses have been done by
IDA 2015 takes its starting point by incorporating technical
analysing the system hour-by-hour in the energy system analysis
changes that are technologically possible in the short-term. The
model EnergyPLAN, which has been used for technical system
IDA 2050 energy system draws upon technologies which are ex-
analyses as well as estimates of economic consequences [43]. The
pected to be developed in the future, such as better electric vehi-
model is an input/output model that performs annual analyses in
cles, fuel cells for CHP plants and electrolysers. If one or more of
steps of 1 h. Inputs are demands, capacities of the technologies in-
these technologies are not developed, there are other possibilities
cluded, demand distributions, and fluctuating renewable energy
to utilize existing technologies so that the general conclusions re-
distributions. A number of technologies can be included enabling
main intact. The IDA 2030 energy system represents a step in the
the reconstruction of all elements of an energy system and allow-
direction of an IDA 2050 energy system. IDA 2030 and IDA 2050
ing the analyses of e.g. wind integration technologies, as well as
will be carried out by technological measures which are estimated
the interrelation between the electricity and heat supply with high
to be developed by the year 2020.
penetrations of CHP. The model makes it possible to use different
The Climate Plan is meant to be carried out over a period from
regulation strategies putting emphasis on heat and power supply,
now until 2050 by continuously replacing worn-out facilities when
import/export, ancillary services, grid stability and excess electric-
their lifetime runs out, and would therefore have been replaced
ity production. Outputs are energy balances, resulting annual pro-
anyway. The expenses are calculated as extra expenses through
ductions, fuel consumption, and import/exports. The EnergyPLAN
investing in better facilities in relation to the reference energy sys-
model is particularly suitable for analysing radical changes in en-
tem. There are, however, a few exceptions to this.
ergy systems and renewable energy systems with high intermit-
In the IDA 2050 energy system, significant structural and infra-
tency [17].
structure changes are proposed in relation to the present. As the
first energy plan in Denmark, a draft is done here of what the costs
are for an energy system that is 100% based on renewable energy. 2.5. The reference energy system towards 2050
The results of the technical and economic analyses are, just as for
IDA 2015 and IDA 2030, calculated by comparing IDA 2050 with The calculations in the Climate Plan have been made by com-
the reference for 2050. paring the IDA scenarios with the sequence for a reference energy
The technical energy system analyses have been done for the system. The latest business-as-usual projection to 2030 from the
purpose of ensuring flexibility and balance between electricity DEA has been used [37]. And using the same methodology, the
 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501 491

projection has been extended towards 2050 for the IDA Climate model than was originally used in ExternE. This version is used
Plan 2050 [36]. by, among others, the DEA in evaluating the socio-economic value
The DEAs projection contains a new forecast of the Danish en- of projects. The ExternE models concerning air pollution have been
ergy consumption and production which takes into account the improved at the Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH)
latest energy policy agreements. The International Energy Agency’s (www.ceeh.dk), which is a cross-disciplinary centre which utilizes,
(IEA) latest expectations for the trend in fuel prices from November among other aspects, a smaller geographic resolution [48]. This
2008 have also been taken into account. The IEA adjusted the means that the average concentration of air pollution contami-
expectations for the price of oil in 2030 upwards to $122/barrel. nants to which the population is exposed can be calculated more
This is almost double the current price, but under the price level precisely and therefore a better estimate can be given for the asso-
reached in the summer of 2008. In the DEA projection, 20% renew- ciated costs. These costs are based on enumerated lost work days,
able energy in 2011 is included, followed by a small increase until hospital admissions, health damage, deaths, etc. Six different emis-
2030. Energy savings are primarily in the heating sector. sions are included: SO2, NOx, CO, particulates (PM2.5), mercury,
For the first time in Denmark, a projection has been done of the and lead.
Danish energy consumption including transport up to 2050, which The socio-economic costs as a result of these discharges are
is consistent with DEA’s method for the analyses in the Climate quantified separately on the basis of fuel consumption and conver-
Plan. This projection takes into account the same elements as the sion technology. The costs in the IDA scenarios are compared with
assumptions and methods used in DEA projection from 30 April, the costs of the emissions in the reference energy systems. The
2009, which runs to 2030. A continued optimisation is assumed estimation of emissions takes a starting point in NERI’s latest esti-
after 2030 going forward to 2050, at a level equal to the period mate of emissions allocated by fuels and technologies.
2010–2030. That is to say that a continued active policy to reduce
the consumption of energy is included in the reference scenario to- 2.8. Methodology for assessing commercial potential and job creation
wards 2050. The projection of energy consumption creates the ba-
sis for constructing a reference energy system for 2050. In this For the analysis of commercial potential, a starting point is ta-
energy system, the existing policies are still deemed to have an ef- ken in previous experiences with building up new types of indus-
fect on heating demand in households; however, consumption in tries within the energy and building sector in Denmark. This is
industry is projected to increase. There are also increases in the compared with the investments in renewable energy and the
electricity demand as well as in the transport sector. A gradual in- investments in energy conservation measures in the Climate Clan
crease in wind power is also included towards 2050 based on the compared with the reference.
DEA expectations for the development from 2020 to 2030. All in The employment effect likewise takes a starting point in the
all, energy consumption decreases towards 2020 and increases above-mentioned differences in the Climate Clan and the refer-
again towards 2050. In Fig. 2, primary energy consumption in the ence. Previous estimates of import share with various cost types
reference energy systems is illustrated. are used here, as well as an estimate of the effect on employment
from domestic investments.
2.6. Input proposals to IDA’s Climate Plan 2050

The contributions resulting from the process leading up to the 3. Results

analyses in the Climate Plan involved a long list of energy demand
side management and efficiency measures within households, In this section the results from the process of identifying inputs
industry and transportation. These are combined with a wide to the Climate Plan and the following analyses are presented. The
range of improved energy conversion technologies and renewable results are divided into conclusions on primary energy demand,
energy sources, putting emphasis on energy efficiency, CO2 reduc- CO2-emissions, socio-economics, health costs, commercial poten-
tion, and industrial development. All such proposals are described tial and job creation.
in relation to the reference energy system in 2015, 2030 and in
2050. Such descriptions involve technical consequences as well 3.1. Main results of the data gathering process
as investments, lifetime, and operation and maintenance costs.
In the process of gathering information about the technological
2.7. Methodology for analysing health costs proposals, the three target years are taken into consideration. For
2015, the technologies proposed have a rather short-term time-
External costs can be many things – they can involve including frame to be implemented. For 2015, only well developed technol-
costs from environmental effects where the fuel has been extracted ogies are implemented. It should be noted that some of the
(e.g., a coal mine in South Africa) or can include health and envi- technologies proposed in 2015 should be implemented over the
ronmental effects where the fuel is used. The costs included here period from now until 2020, since these are larger infrastructural
are based on effects from the fuel conversion in Denmark, i.e., changes. All proposals, however, are analysed as though they were
emissions from the energy system, and therefore do not include fully implemented in 2015. In 2030, many aspects of the transport
environmental and health costs from extraction and transport of system are also changed, the district heating system is heavily ex-
the fuels to Denmark. Only health costs are included and not costs panded and power plant and combined heat and power plants are
of environmental changes on agriculture, types of nature, build- based on more efficient technologies. In addition, more of the well
ings, etc. It does, however, include the health effects of Danish developed as well as new renewable energy technologies are
emissions to neighbouring countries. implemented. In general, a large proportion of fossil fuel usage is
A range of studies exist concerning pricing of health effects as a replaced by electricity demand, particularly in the transport sector,
consequence of discharging various contaminants [44,45]. Perhaps where more electric vehicles are used as well as more electric
the best known is ExternE (www.externe.info), an EU project trains.
started in 1990s which is constantly updated [46]. The National In 2050, the IDA Climate Plan proposes a 100% renewable en-
Environmental Research Institute, Denmark (NERI), has also up- ergy system by implementing more renewable energy technolo-
dated these numbers several times according to Danish conditions gies, reducing final energy demand, and by making further
(www.dmu.dk) [47] including a more advanced air pollution infrastructural improvements within the transport sector.
492 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501

In Table 1, the increase in renewable energy production from assessed in terms of increasing the timeframe for the return on
different sources for the three target years is listed. In Table 2, investments [53].
the same results on the renewable energy percentages are pre- Half of the 18% growth in passenger transport demand towards
sented for the heating of individual houses as well as in overall dis- 2030 is transferred to trains and half is avoided. This is accom-
trict heating supply. plished by introducing road pricing, better physical urban plan-
In addition to these increases in the renewable energy share, ning, etc. Electric vehicles are introduced covering 45% of the
the following have been implemented [36]: transport demand, making transport more efficient [16,54]. In
Future power and CHP plants constructed after 2015 are re- practice, some of these are hybrids using other fuels as a range ex-
placed by high temperature solid oxide fuel cell CHPs, equal to tender. Fifty percent of the vehicles are electric or hybrid vehicles
approximately 33% of total power plants in 2030 and have replaced in 2030 and all are in 2050. Two loading stations are made per
all plants in 2050. vehicle. In 2050, 80% of the transport demand is met by electricity
The existing waste incineration plants, which also produce elec- and 20% by synthetic fuels produced from electrolysers. Hybrid
tricity and district heating currently, are upgraded to state-of the busses are implemented, where 20% is covered by electricity in
art plants operating at 27% electrical efficiency including flue gas 2030 and 25% in 2050. The railroads are expanded heavily to meet
condensing equipment providing a total efficiency of 104% in the higher demands from the transferred growth in 2030, i.e. high-
2030 and 2050. er capacity and higher speeds [7,55]. Domestic flights are reduced
Geothermal plants are established for 2030 in connection to to 5% of the current demand. Ninety five percent of train transport
waste incineration plants with a total production of approximately is covered by electricity in 2030. From 2030 and 2050, the growth
4 TWh, corresponding to approximately 15% of the demand in the in passenger transport is avoided by further long-term urban plan-
larger cities. ning and road pricing. In 2050, however, the market share of rail-
The electricity demand in households is decreased by 25% in roads is expected to increase through further investments.
2015 and 50% in both 2030 and 2050 compared to today’s con- Railroads cover 15–20% of the transport demand today. Railroads
sumption through the use of information campaigns, increased and trams meet approximately 30% of the demand in 2030 and
product standards and by installing best-practice products already approximately 40% of the demand in 2050. Today, bicycling and
available. walking cover around 5% of the demand. Due to the urban planning
New buildings use 75% of the demand they use today and have efforts, this share is doubled in 2050. In 2050, 50% of the passenger
renewable energy installed onsite, enabling them to be energy transport demand is covered by vehicles. In 2050 all trains are elec-
neutral on an annual basis. The main challenge is not new, but trically driven and Denmark is connected with several European
existing buildings, in which a heat savings of 25% is implemented cities with high speed trains. Still, no reductions in aviation are
in the period from 2010 to 2020, corresponding to improvements implemented because of that. Half of goods transport is transferred
of 75% of the least insulated houses. Towards 2030, the houses to trains and ships in 2030 and 2050. In 2050, 25% of the transport
are insulated to 50% of the current heat demand instead of 20% demand in heavy duty vehicles and busses is met with the syn-
in the reference. The heat savings implemented are based on re- thetic fuels from electrolysers. No changes are implemented in
ports from the Danish Building Research Institute (SBI) [49–51]. international aviation, which increases by 1.2% annually in the ref-
In combination with the heat savings in the district heating areas, erence. In the reference (and thus the Climate Plan) however, more
there is a synergy of expanding the district heating grids, because efficient planes are expected to lower the fuel demand. It is ex-
the transmission lines can supply more houses and the costs of pected that ships can lower the fuel demand by 40% towards
marginal expansion are rather low [17,40]. Towards 2020, the level 2030 and by 60% in 2050, which is implemented here. Bio-ethanol
of net heat coverage from district heating is increased from 46% to covers 5.75% of the passenger transport demand in both the refer-
between 53% and 63% and to between 63% and 70% towards 2030. ence and the IDA 2030 scenario. In 2050, no vehicles use bio-etha-
In industry and service, the electricity demand is reduced by nol, however, aviation uses biofuels, although the exact form of
32%, 43% and 45% in 2015, 2030 and 2050 respectively. District renewable fuels to replace jet petrol is unclear presently.
cooling of 1.65 TWh is implemented, accounting for half of the po- For the purpose of estimating the level of supply security, the
tential savings in 2030 [52]. The fuel savings in industry and ser- biomass resources are identified. Most scenarios and prognoses
vices are reduced by 27%, 31% and 33% respectively in 2015, for use of biomass have first and foremost had a focus on use of
2030 and 2050 by a combination of end use savings, more efficient biomass for energy purposes, including electricity, heat, and pro-
technologies and upgrading to industrial heat pumps. The com- pellants for transport. However, a need for production of materials
bined production of heat and electricity for the grid is increased must also be covered if these no longer can be produced by fossil
slightly and the use of biomass is increased, replacing fossil fuels. fuels. In keeping with this, a focus on integrated use of biomass
The savings within industry are based on past experience from has appeared. In Table 3, a range of estimates of the Danish bio-
concrete projects in many different sectors of industry and are mass resources has been displayed. In addition, the consumption

Table 1
Renewable energy used for electricity production in the reference years and in the proposed energy systems.

2008 2015 2030 2050 IDA 2015 IDA 2030 IDA 2050
Wind turbines (%) 19 28 28 27 48 67 63
Percentage onshore (%) 16 18 16 13 28 36 25
Percentage offshore (%) 3 10 12 14 20 31 38
Wave power (%) 0 0 0 0 0 4 5
Photovoltaic (%) 0 0 0 0 0 3 9
Biomass (%) 11 17 32 26 19 11 22
Synthetic fuels (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Of total electricity production (%) 30 45 60 53 67 85 100
Total production (TWh) 36.5 36.7 41.8 51.5 32.1 34.8 50.4
 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501 493

Table 2
Renewable energy in the heat supply.

Individual heating systems 2008 2015 2030 2050 IDA 2015 IDA 2030 IDA 2050
Solar thermal (%) 1 1 3 3 4 23 23
Heat pumps (%) 4 9 14 17 35 65 67
Biomass (%) 47 46 50 48 43 10 10
Of total demand (%) 51 56 67 68 83 98 100
Total demand in individual heating systems (TWh) 22.9 22.0 19.5 16.3 14.7 9.3 8.8

District heating production 2008 2015 2030 2050 IDA 2015 IDA 2030 IDA 2050
Solar thermal (%) 0 0 0 0 1 8 8
Large-scale heat pumps (%) 1 0 0 0 10 24 25
Electric boilers (%) 0 0 0 0 2 1 1
Biomass (%) 24 26 35 35 24 39 66
Synthetic fuels (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Of district heating production (%) 25 26 35 35 37 71 100
Total production, incl. district cooling and for biogas production (TWh) 36.70 36.10 35.52 35.53 38.04 40.63 40.79
Total production to connected houses and industry 35.87 35.28 34.06 34.06 37.49 37.72 37.28
Total end heat demand (an consumer), excl. grid losses 26.90 27.87 26.91 26.91 29.62 29.80 29.45
Solar thermal of end demand (%) 0 0 1 1 2 11 11

Table 3
Biomass resources for energy purposes in Denmark: Consumption 2006 and various scenarios. Numbers have been expressed as PJ, understood as the calorific value of the various
forms of biomass.

PJ Consumption of Danish resources Imports DEA potential [56] Potential in IDA Energy Plan 2030 [7,9] IDA Climate Plan 2050 [36]
Straw 18 0 55 55 30
Wood 38 16 40 40 50
Biomass to biogas 4 0 40 40 40
Slurry fibre fraction – – 0 108 5
Energy crops – – 0 144 52
Biodegradable waste 30 0 30 30 30
Algae – – – – 100
Total 90 16 Approximately 165 417 307

for 2006 has been shown, as well as imports and Danish-produced 3.2. Introducing flexibility while maintaining fuel efficient renewable
biomass. energy systems
The differences in the various potentials for biomass in Den-
mark have to do with evaluating yields, size of area, quantity of With a starting point in the three reference energy systems, the
straw, crop types, etc. Algae have been brought into the scenario energy system in IDA 2015, IDA 2030, and IDA 2050 the sum of the
for the Climate Plan. As energy crops, algae are associated with sig- above-mentioned initiatives can be analysed. At first glance (step
nificant uncertainties because the environmental effects of this one) these initiatives result in an energy system with large imbal-
technology are uncertain. Energy crops such as maize or beets ances between consumption and production, which are expressed
can be cultivated without affecting agricultural production. This in the form of a significant electricity surplus which the energy sys-
is partially due to the production of such by-products as liquid bio- tem has been forced to export. In addition, this results in a de-
fuels, solid fuels, and fodder that must not be cultivated at other creased opportunity to earn money through trading on the
places, and partially with the help of bringing in fallow fields. Un- international electricity market. Hence a range of technical
der the assumption that the balance in current agricultural produc- improvements of the combined system have been done for the
tion is maintained, approximately 20% (500,000 ha) of the Danish purpose of creating greater flexibility, while, at the same time,
agricultural area can be converted to the cultivation of energy ensuring a fuel efficient energy system. In IDA 2015, the adjust-
crops, for example maize. By that means, the Danish biomass re- ments are made as the second step by introducing thermal heat
source will be increased considerably. In connection with the com- storages at CHP plants, allowing them to adjust electricity produc-
pletion of IDA Energy Plan 2030, it was estimated that if maize is tion to periods with no or low wind power production. As the next
used for combined production of liquid biofuels, solid fuels, and step, large-scale heat pumps are installed at CHP plants, allowing
fodder, the net area demand for an energy production of 144 PJ district heat supplied by boilers to be replaced while also using
is approximately 330,000 ha or around 15% of the agricultural area. electricity at times with high wind power production. In IDA
In the Climate Plan, 100 PJ from algae is displayed, cf. more 2030, further steps are needed. Flexible demands are introduced
information in [36]. This is, however, associated with the use of a for 15% of demand in industry and households, smart charging of
large area. Hence, a final position has not been taken in the Climate battery electric vehicles is introduced, and the fuel cell CHP plants
Plan on the balance between the use of biomass from algae and installed in IDA 2030 are used to increase flexibility even further.
that from energy crops. In IDA’s Climate Plan 2050, biomass is used Such plants can potentially be regulated very quickly from nil to
in CHP plants, in transport in the form of IBUS facilities, as well as full capacity, much faster than the current steam turbines. In the
in waste incineration and industry. IDA 2050 energy system, electrolysers and synthetic fuel storage
It is not realistic to use the entire biogas potential by 2030. It is facilities are introduced at CHP plants, enabling the system to be
assessed that it is possible to achieve a usage of 75% of the biogas based 100% on renewable energy and replacing parts of the bio-
potential, corresponding to 32 PJ. In IDA 2050, it is assumed that mass consumption at CHP plants. The synthetic fuels from electrol-
the entire potential of 40 PJ is used. ysers are implemented as hydrogen, but could potentially be other
494 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501

fuels such as DME, methanol and methane. In Fig. 1, the effects of coal in the reference, due to the anticipated exhaustion of oil and
the steps in the IDA 2030 energy system are illustrated. Similar ef- natural gas resources in the North Sea within the next decade or
fects are present in the process of making the energy systems for so. In Fig. 3, the IDA 2050 resulting energy system is represented
IDA 2015 and 2050 more flexible. with a sankey diagram.
In IDA 2050, the energy system including transport can also
3.3. 100% Renewable energy and large reductions in fuel consumption be supplied with the biomass potential purely from a quantity
point of view. However, the surplus biomass resources beyond
The current primary energy consumption in Denmark is this are small, and thus there are not sufficient resources for
approximately 800 PJ including transport and industry. The the production of materials, for example. In IDA 2050, a large
DEA expects the energy consumption to decline marginally to- portion is devoted partly to international aviation, partly to
wards 2015, because of already existing or planned energy sav- industry, and partly to waste incineration plants. It has not been
ings followed by an expected increase to approximately 950 PJ possible to investigate all technological possibilities within these
in 2050. In the Climate Plan, the suggested changes decrease sectors in the Climate Plan. In the future, it is recommended to
the primary energy consumption to 707 PJ in 2015, 556 PJ in investigate:
2030 and 442 PJ in 2050. Simultaneously while reducing de-
mand, renewable energy sources are implemented. This in-  Whether synthetic fuels for aviation can be developed that can
creases the percentage of renewable energy from 22 in the replace biomass-based fuels for aviation efficiently.
2015 reference to 30 in IDA 2015, and from 25% to 29% in the  Whether a portion of the international air transport can be cov-
reference in 2030 and 2050 to 47 in IDA 2030 and 100% in ered by international high speed trains.
IDA 2050. In Fig. 2, the resulting primary energy consumption  Whether aircrafts can be made even more efficient.
is presented.  Whether the transport demand for international aviation can be
In both IDA 2015 and IDA 2030, there are sufficient domestic reduced.
biomass resources. Meanwhile, there are challenges in the IDA  Whether even more fuel consumption for industrial processes
2050 energy system, where 284 PJ of biomass is used. This can can be shifted to electricity consumption than displayed here.
potentially be supplied with domestic resources, but conversely  Whether more savings can be made within industry.
it will not leave many resources for any material goods production.  Whether a larger quantity of waste can be recycled instead of
It is a challenge for the future regarding whether more of the fuel being burned.
consumption in industry and aviation can be changed to direct or  Whether a portion of the waste resource can be converted to
indirect electricity production, or whether further end demand gaseous biofuels for example, where parts can be stored and
savings can be introduced. parts can be used more efficiently than in waste incineration
A 100% renewable energy system has been designed which facilities.
potentially can be maintained by domestic biomass resources. It  Whether waste incineration can be made more flexible with
must be emphasised that there is no objective in the Climate Plan other techniques, without the waste simply being burned off
to not conduct international trade with biomass. It does, however, in a boiler.
present the opportunity for Denmark to avoid a future dependence  Whether waste incineration can be done more efficiently by
on foreign biomass as it would experience with oil, natural gas and raising the electricity efficiency.

Fig. 1. Allocation between fuels in IDA 2030, and illustration of the step-wise improvements through technical adjustments of the system.
 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501 495

Fig. 2. Primary energy consumption in the reference and IDA scenarios. The reference energy systems are based partly on business-as-usual projections from the Danish
Energy Authority and a projection performed in the Climate Plan for the years from 2030 to 2050.

Fig. 3. Sankey diagram of the resulting energy system for 2050.

496 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501

3.4. Large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions 3.5. Better socio-economic solutions with more renewable energy

The objective is reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases The general picture is that Denmark will achieve a significantly
of 90% in 2050 in relation to 2000. The energy system constitutes better economy with both IDA 2015 and IDA 2030 than with the
only a part of the emission of greenhouse gases. This part will be reference energy systems. In 2015 and 2030, the difference with
reduced to 34 million tonnes CO2 in 2015, 19 million tonnes CO2 the middle fuel and low CO2 price assumptions are respectively 9
in 2030, and is completely removed in 2050 by the changes de- and 20 billion DKK/year, as illustrated in Fig. 5. In IDA 2015 it is
scribed above. Beyond this, reductions in the emission from indus- important, however, to note that a part of the measures are under-
trial processes and from agriculture are proposed, and the extra taken in the period 2010–2020. For the 2030 energy system, the
contribution from aircraft is taken into account, because of emis- marginal economic value as well as the marginal effect on the
sions in high altitudes. All in all, the emissions in 2050 can be re- CO2-emissions has also been analysed, cf. Mathiesen et al. [36].
duced to 7.2% of the emissions in 2000. If the aircraft In addition, a more robust situation is reached, while the com-
contribution is included, the reduction is 10.2%. In Fig. 4, the reduc- bined costs for energy are less sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices
tions in the plan are illustrated. and CO2 costs. There will be a gain even if fuel prices are half as
Industry’s greenhouse gas not included in the energy con- high as the DEA currently recommends. It is worth noting that
sumption above corresponds to 4.2 million tonnes of CO2 equiva- annually, between 50 and 95 billion DKK/year today and going for-
lents/year, including discharges from waste disposal sites. It is wards to 2030 will be spent on fuels, depending on the fuel prices.
expected that the discharge of F-gases has been reduced by It is proposed in the Climate Plan that these expenditures be re-
approximately 80% from 2015 [57]. Out of 2 million tonnes from duced to between 29 and 51 billion DKK/year, again depending
industrial processes, approximately 1.7 million tonnes of CO2 on the fuel prices. Two advantages can be obtained. In part, IDA
stems from cement production. This discharge can be reduced 2015 and IDA 2030 are less expensive than the reference energy
by using cement more efficiently, using alternatives, using other systems, and in part, it involves a system significantly less sensitive
materials than limestone, increasing the production efficiency, to fluctuations in the fuel prices. In the future, one must expect
etc. [58]. Savings of 20% have been implemented here by mixing that the world will continue to experience fluctuating prices, with
in finely-ground glass powder, based on research results from neither constantly high nor constantly low oil prices.
Aalborg University. IDA 2050 is based on 100% renewable energy. The estimate of
The reductions from agriculture involve reduced food waste, the costs to the economy shall be seen as a first attempt to esti-
better dietary habits, improved agricultural practices, and in- mate the costs to the economy in such a system. Such estimates,
creased organic operations. Seen as a whole, this provides a however, are associated with significant uncertainties. In 2050,
reduction of 10 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents from there is a wide range of measures, among others electricity and
agriculture. heat savings, that are altered only marginally in relation to the
Regarding CO2-emissions from aircraft, it can be argued that measures in IDA 2030. The most important changes are that the
these should count more because of emissions other than their di- share of renewable energy is raised significantly in the electrical
rect CO2 discharge, though there is no consensus on precisely how system, the power stations are more efficient, synthetic fuels from
much more should be included. Some argue that the factor is be- electrolysis have replaced a part of the biomass and the transport
tween 1.7 and up to 5 for ordinary aviation fuel. This relationship sector is to a greater degree converted to track-borne forms of
is included here as an extra contribution corresponding to the transport and electrical vehicles. It must be emphasised that the
CO2-emissions from aviation being multiplied by a factor of 2. results are dependent on the fuel price assumptions, as well as
The technical challenge in developing and producing alternative the significant structural societal changes that are proposed in
fuels that are suited to aircrafts is great. The question is whether IDA 2050. IDA 2050 is robust regarding larger changes in the bio-
new fuels also induce condensation clouds, including cirrus clouds, mass prices than analysed here. The results are that there are po-
because of more particles and water vapour, and what effects this tential savings of over 25 billion DKK/year in the middle fuel
might have. Aircraft propelled by hydrogen may result in 2.6 times price scenario, as illustrated in Fig. 6.
more water vapour according to the IPCC, also influencing green- Analyses of the consequences of international electricity
house gas emissions. exchange on the Nord Pool have also been conducted. The

Fig. 4. Emission of greenhouse gases in the reference and the Climate Plan.
 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501 497

Fig. 5. Costs to the economy in 2015 and 2030.

Fig. 6. Costs to the economy in 2050 at different fuel and CO2-prices.

above-mentioned estimation of the costs to the economy is in a primarily because of more efficient power stations combined with
closed system without international electricity trading. In situa- available capacity when the consumption is covered by wind tur-
tions with low fuel prices and low CO2 quota prices, income is pri- bines, etc. This will, however, result in larger CO2-emissions in
marily through electricity exports, while in the case of high fuel Denmark and increased coal or biomass consumption. All in all,
prices income is primarily through imports. Therefore, there is also it involves a difference however which is of less significance in
a difference in the earnings from electricity trading in the two comparison with the difference in the annual costs of the system
systems. The energy systems proposed provide higher income, itself presented above, which amounts to several billion DKK/year
498 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501

to the advantage of IDA 2015 and IDA 2030. In the references for demand for oil in industry, and a reduced demand for wood in indi-
both 2015 and 2030, as well as in IDA 2015 and IDA 2030, an in- vidual household heating. On the other hand, the emissions in-
crease in the transmission capacity to other countries from crease marginally because of more straw, wood, biogas, etc.
2.500 MW to 5.000 MW only provides an opportunity for marginal The costs are based on enumerated lost work days, hospital
extra income, which does not at all match costs associated with admissions, health damage, deaths, etc. The combined health costs
this extra capacity. The conclusions of the electricity exchange for the reference energy systems for 2015, 2030, and 2050 are
analyses of the 2050 energy systems are estimated to be in keeping approximately 14–15 billion DKK/year. The combined health costs
with the above results. It must be emphasised that the analyses of estimated here fit well with other studies. In IDA 2015, these costs
a closed energy system without trading are not an expression that have been reduced to approximately 13 billion DKK. In IDA 2030
international trade of electricity should be avoided in the future. and 2050, the costs have been reduced to, respectively, about 8
This is only done in order to ensure that the energy systems in and 6 billion DKK. The health costs included are based exclusively
the Climate Plan are not dependent on this or dependent on shut- on the six emissions and do not include environmental costs due to
ting down wind turbines, etc., in certain situations. The energy sys- damage to nature and animal life, nor costs from extraction of fuels
tems in the Climate Plan are in a position to avoid this. and materials abroad, e.g., from a coal mine in South Africa. Hence,
Any possible changes in assumptions regarding international it can be regarded as a rather conservative estimation. If the socio-
electricity trade are not critical for the comparison. The large dif- economic environmental and health costs due to the CO2-emis-
ference is summed up by the Climate Plan including large invest- sions on top of the six emissions analysed here are included, a con-
ments, while the reference has large fuel costs. Hence, the servative estimate shows that the above-mentioned savings are
comparison is especially sensitive partly to changes in the fuel approximately twice as large. The savings in the health costs are
prices and partly to changes in interest rate and investment approximately 2 billion DKK in 2015, approximately 7 billion DKK
requirements. Analyses have been done at three fuel levels and in 2030 and approximately 10 billion DKK in 2050. In Fig. 7, the
the two CO2 quota price levels which do not change the general health costs have been estimated and are distributed by sector.
picture that the Climate Plan has lower costs than the reference.
Nor are the results changed by an increase of the investment levels
by 50%, although the earnings become lower. The same is the case 3.7. Commercial potential
if the real interest rate is at 6%. It must be pointed out, however,
that this applies to the combined package. With an altered interest A systematic implementation of the technologies that are in-
rate or scope of investment, several of the individual measures will cluded in the Climate Plan will include significant opportunities
get a negative economic result. to increase exports. These potentials are evaluated with a starting
point in the current and historic export of energy technologies. It is
3.6. Health costs estimated that the Climate Plan can create a potential for exports
of energy technology that climbs from the present approximately
The health costs have been estimated on the basis of six differ- 64 billion DKK in 2008 to approximately 200 billion DKK/year
ent emissions: SO2, NOx, CO, particulates (PM2.5), mercury, and going forward to 2030. It must be emphasised that this type of
lead. In IDA’s Climate Plan 2050, the highest reductions are in quantification is associated with significant uncertainties and must
the emissions of NOx, CO, and small particulates. There are also be considered an estimate. However, the rough estimate provides a
reductions in the emissions of SO2, mercury, and lead. The reduced good overview of the technologies where the Climate Plan can
emissions are primarily because of much less coal used in the potentially contribute to creating a trend. It must also be empha-
power plants, less diesel and petrol in the transport sector, reduced sised that these potential earnings come on top of the earnings that

Fig. 7. Combined health costs from the energy systems divided by sector.
 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501 499

Fig. 8. Annual commercial business potentials of the Climate Plan.

are shown through the changed operation and structure in the en- therefore, the largest labour capacity to undertake a change in
ergy system itself. The results are illustrated in Fig. 8. the energy system is in the beginning of the examined period.
The other reason is that the Danish North Sea resources run out
3.8. Employment effects during this period. It is therefore important to develop such energy
systems and changes as early as possible. Also, the potential in-
The starting point for the estimation of the employment effect is crease in the export of energy technology can replace the oil and
the division in annual costs for Climate Plan compared with that in natural gas exports expected to disappear entirely in the course
the reference. The difference in the costs can be broken down into of 10–20 years.
investments and operations. Implementation of Climate Plan 2050 The above-mentioned effects on employment do not include job
includes a shift from significant costs devoted to fuel to expendi- creation as a result of increased exports of energy technology. With
tures for investments. Such changes will include higher Danish an assumption of a 50% import share, an annual export of 200 bil-
employment at the same time as an improvement in international lion DKK will generate on the order of up to 200,000 total jobs,
balance of payment. This effect is increased further if the plan is depending on where the exports would have been without the Cli-
implemented in a manner so that the above-mentioned commer- mate Plan and on the extent of unemployment and the extent to
cial potentials in the form of increased exports are realised. In which these persons could be employed in other export trades.
the Climate Plan, expenditures for fuels are reduced while they In that connection, notice is directed to the fact that everything
are increased for operations and maintenance. In addition, an extra else being equal, a share of Danish labour will be made available
investment just below 1 trillion DKK is made in the Climate Plan in step with the conclusion of oil and gas extraction in the North
compared to the reference, spread out over the period going for- Sea.
ward to 2050. For the share that is left, after removing the import
share, two jobs continue to be created for each million DKK spent.
This includes derived jobs in the finance and service sector. It 4. Conclusions
should be emphasised that such estimates are subject to uncertain-
ties. The extra employment in Denmark through implementation In this paper an energy system is designed which is based on
of the Climate Plan compared with the reference has been esti- 100% renewable energy. The IDA 2015 and IDA 2030 energy sys-
mated with the method and assumptions to be about 30–40,000 tems represent steps on the way towards this goal focusing on
jobs. Jobs will be lost in the handling of fossil fuels, but jobs will existing technologies. The study is based on the case of Denmark,
be created through investments in energy technology. In the in which primary energy supply has been kept constant for
long-term, employment will settle down, in step with the comple- 35 years, while having a stable economic growth. This has been
tion of investments leading to a 100% renewable energy system, to done with existing technology that could be used by other coun-
about 15,000 extra jobs in relation to the reference for 2050. In tries. The result is that a 100% renewable energy system is possi-
practice, this will probably spread out over a period of years. In this ble, but the balance between large consumption of biomass and
context, it is important to place the large employment effort as large amounts of electricity for direct use, or for production of
early as possible in the period for two primary reasons. The first synthetic fuels, is a challenge. An estimate is presented here for
reason is that the labour force as a share of the total population this balance. In combination with changes in the agricultural
is falling during the entire period going forward to about 2040; sector, and including the extra contribution from aviation, the
500 B.V. Mathiesen et al. / Applied Energy 88 (2011) 488–501

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