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Comparative Study of Oil Production Forecast by Decline Curve Analysis and

Material Balance

Article in European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research · April 2018

DOI: 10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472

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 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

Comparative Study of Oil Production Forecast by Decline

Curve Analysis and Material Balance
Anyadiegwu Charley Iyke and Ohia Nnaemeka Princewill

 this work, concentration would be made on prediction using

Abstract—Comparative analysis of forecast of rate of decline curve and material balance analyses.
production of oil from a reservoir using decline curve analysis
and material balance was presented. The data for reservoir A
Located Southeast, Nigeria was obtained for the study. The
II. PRODUCTION PREDICTION
analysis on the well using decline curve analysis showed that
the rate of production from the well over the years followed an The techniques for relating production to time is known
exponential method of decline. The rate of production of the as decline curve analysis. There are three types of decline
well was predicted to be 158 stb/day in 2020. The second curves, although only two of the three techniques are
analysis on the well was performed using material balance with
commonly used. Exponential and hyperbolic production
MBAL. The rate of production of the well was predicted to be
411.984 stb/day in 2020. It was also read from MBAL that the declines occur in many reservoirs [2]. While the third type,
well will have a constant flow rate from the 20th year to the 31st harmonic decline, is now believed to be uncommon, the
year of the producing life of the well which is 2020. It is seen method is still used as a conservative projection technique.
that the values of rates of production gotten from the The determination of the most probable future life of a
prediction analyses of the well using the two methods of well and the estimate of its future production can sometimes
analysis differ. The rate in 2020 was predicted to be 158
be done by volumetric calculations, but sufficient data are
stb/day using decline curve analysis and 411.984 stb/day using
material balance. not always available to eliminate all guess work.
In that case, the possibility of extrapolating the trend of
Index Term—Decline Curve Analysis; Material Balance; Oil some variable characteristics of such a producing well may
Production; Prediction. be considerable help. The simplest and most readily
available variable characteristic of a producing well is its
I. INTRODUCTION production rate, and the logical way to determine the future
Inefficient oil rate prediction poses challenge to the oil life of a well by extrapolation is to plot this variable
industry, some of which are: production rate either against time or cumulative production,
- Wrong forecast of production: Operators extending the curves obtained to the economic limit. The
miscalculate due to inefficient prediction of the rate point of intersection of the extrapolated curve with the
of oil production from the wells they operate. economic limit then indicates the possible future life of the
- Bad economic analysis: Economic viability of any future oil recovery. With the future rate known, it is possible
oil and gas project is determined only with correct to determine the future total production or reserves of the
data of the project. When the production data of a well. This represents the beginning of the art that is since
well is wrongly calculated, the revenue and become more of a science known as decline curve analysis.
investment of the well will also be wrongly The purpose of decline curve analysis is to determine
calculated. future production and ultimate recovery of wells with some
For this, production has to be properly forecasted. There production history [3]. Since it depends on a curve-fit of
are several methods of doing this which includes production past performance, the accuracy is expected to be greater for
decline curve analysis. Decline curve analysis is important a well with several months or years of uninterrupted
in determining the value of oil and gas wells in oil and gas production history than for a well with only a limited
economics. Decline curves are the most common means of amount of history. The definition of decline curve can be
forecasting oil and gas production. Decline curves have represented both mathematically and graphically with both,
many advantages: they use data which is easy to obtain, they the future life of a well can be determined [4].
are easy to plot, they yield results on a time basis, and they In order to analyse what influence certain reservoir
are easy to analyse. Decline curves are also one of the oldest characteristics may have on the type of decline curves, it
methods of predicting oil reserves [1]. Material balance was first assumed that we are dealing with the idealized case
method is also used in predicting oil production. There are of a reservoir, where water drive is absent and where the
several other methods used in predicting production, but in pressure is proportional to the amount of remaining oil [5].
It was further assumed that the productivity index of the
Published on April 17, 2018. wells is constant throughout their life, so that, the production
Anyadiegwu Charley Iyke is with the Department of Petroleum rates are always proportional to the reservoir pressure. In
Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria. (e-mail: such a hypothetical case, the relationship between
drcicanyadiegwu@yahoo.com).
Ohia Nnaemeka Princewill is with the Department of Petroleum cumulative oil produced and pressure would have to be
Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria. (e-mail: linear and also the relationship between production rate and
princepetra@yahoo.com). cumulative production. In most actual reservoirs, however,

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472 19
 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

the above mentioned idealized conditions do not occur. prediction and discusses the principles on which these
Pressures usually are not proportioned to the remaining oil, methods are based. Particular emphasis is placed on how
but seem to decline at a gradually slower rate as the amount these methods change with the type of information available
of remaining oil diminishes [6]. At the same time the during the life cycle of an oil property.
productivity index is generally not constant but show a According to [13], the material balance is a very
tendency to decline as the reservoir is being depleted and the important part of the reservoir engineer's toolbox that is
gas oil ratios increase. The combined result of these two being relegated to the background in today's reservoir
tendencies is a rate-cumulative relationship, which instead evaluation workflow. Their paper examined some issues that
of being a straight line on co-ordinate paper; show up as a normally preclude its regular use especially as a pre-step
gentle curve convex towards the origin. before moving into full reservoir simulation and the use of a
Existing decline curve analysis are based on Arps new method of analysing the material balance equation
equations [7], and there has been a great number of papers called the dynamic material balance method for solving
on this topic. Fetkovich et al., developed concepts for some of these issues. The dynamic material balance method
decline curve forecasting and provided a theoretical basis allows the simultaneous determination of the initial oil-in-
for the Arps equations [8]. Cheng et al., used stochastic place (N) or initial gas-in-place (G), ratio of initial gas to oil
approach to evaluate the uncertainty in reserve estimation (m), reservoir permeability (K) or skin factor (S) and
based decline curve analysis [9]. A stochastic reserve average pressure history of a reservoir from the combination
estimation using decline curve analysis using Monte Carlo of solution to the material balance equation and pressure
simulation to obtain reserve distribution was discussed in transient analysis theory. Cumulative production history and
[10] PVT data of the reservoir are used with limited or no
Arps decline curve analysis is an empirical method and pressure data. By introducing a time variable into the
requires no knowledge of reservoir parameters. The classical material balance equation (MBE) and combining
application of the method involves estimating a parametric the solutions of the resulting equations with the theory of
model to the historical production data using least squares pressure transient analysis, the cumulative production
method. There are many different curve fitting methods history of the reservoir and readily available PVT data of the
available, however there is no one clear method to handle reservoir fluids, they postulated that we can estimate not
unusual observations. The available methods lead to only the original reserves in place, but also determine the
unsatisfactory results due to the influence of the unusual average reservoir pressure decline history as indicated by
observation. This paper proposes a modification of Arps the net fluid withdrawal from the reservoir. The reservoir
decline curve analysis using results from robust regression permeability and skin factor can then be estimated from the
analysis where the unusual observations receives less weight already determined average pressure decline history. Their
compared with the other observations. The exponential method is expected to improve the use of material balance
decline curve is fitted using robust cube polynomial by expanding the list of problems that can be tackled using
regression to obtain a better representation of the fluctuation material balance especially to reservoirs in marginal fields
of the historical production. The similar approach was and reservoirs in which limited pressure data is available.
developed for harmonic decline curve analysis. Inspired
from growth curve modelling, a logistic decline curve is III. METHODOLOGY
proposed to estimate the global trend and applied to the
A. Decline Curve Analysis
historical data. The robust trend curve fitting results Arps
equations and logistic model are used to extrapolated the A decline curve of a well is simply a plot of the well’s
future production decline and compared with the reservoir production rate on the y-axis versus time on the x-axis. The
simulation results to evaluate the proposed approach [11]. plot is usually done on a semi-log paper; i.e. the y-axis is
According to [12], estimating oil reserves is one of the logarithmic and the x-axis is linear. When the data plots as a
most important phases of the work of a petroleum engineer straight line, it is modelled with a constant percentage
since the solutions to the problems he deals with usually decline “exponential decline”. When the data plots concave
depend on a comparison of the estimated cost in terms of upward, it is modelled with a “hyperbolic decline”. A
dollars, with the anticipated result in terms of barrels of oil. special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as
His recommendations to management regarding the best “harmonic decline”.
course of action are therefore normally based on the most The most common decline curve relationship is the
favourable balance between these two. Specific engineering constant percentage decline (exponential). With more and
problems which require such a knowledge of recoverable oil more low productivity wells coming on stream, there is
reserves and a projection of future rates are: [a.] the currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to
exploitation and development of an oil reservoir; [b.] the production rates (hyperbolic and harmonic). Although some
construction of gasoline plants, pipelines and refineries; [c.] wells exhibit these trends, hyperbolic or harmonic decline
the division of ownership in unitized projects; [d.] the price extrapolations should only be used for these specific cases.
to be paid in case of a sale or purchase of an oil property, Over-exuberance in the use of hyperbolic or harmonic
and the magnitude of the loan which it will support; [e.] the relationships can result in excessive reserves estimates. Fig.
proper depreciation rate for the investment in oil properties; 1 is an example of a production graph with exponential and
and [f.] evaluation of the results of an exploration program. harmonic extrapolations.
Reference [12] reviewed the methods in use for
estimating primary oil reserves and conducting production

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472 20
 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

D   ln(1  De ) (3)
Nominal Decline Rate
De  (qi  q ) / qi (4)
D
Effective Decline Rate De  1  e (5)

Life t  ln( qi / q ) / D (6)

2) Hyperbolic Decline
Alternatively, if the well’s production data plotted on a
semi-log paper concaves upward, then it is modelled with a
hyperbolic decline. The equation of the hyperbolic decline is
given in Table III.
Where:
Fig. 1. Decline curve of an oil well q = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day
qi = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day
Decline curves are the most common means of Di = initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0),
forecasting production. They have many advantages: Data is 1/day
easy to obtain, they are easy to plot, they yield results on a b = hyperbolic exponent
time basis, they are easy to analyse. t = time, day
If the conditions affecting the rate of production of the The following table summarizes the equations used in
well are not changed by outside influences, the curve will be hyperbolic decline:
fairly regular, and, if projected, will furnish useful
knowledge as to the future production of the well. TABLE III: HYPERBOLIC DECLINE EQUATIONS, B > 0, B ≠ 1 (PETROBJECTS,
2004) [14]
According to [12], a production history may vary from a
Description Equation
straight line to a concave upward curve. In any case the
object of decline curve analysis is to model the production Rate q  qi (1  bDi t ) 1 / b (7)

history with the equation of a line. The following table Cumulative

N p  [qib ( qi1b  q1b )] / Di (1  b) (8)
Oil Production
summarizes the five approaches for using the equation of a
Nominal Di  [(1  Dei )  b  1] / b (9)
line to forecast production. Decline Rate

TABLE I: APPROACHES FOR PRODUCTION FORECAST

Nominal
Decline Rate
Dei  (qi  q) / qi (10)
Log Rate-Time
Shape
Name Model Decline Effective
Decline Rate
De  1  e  D (11)
Straight Exponential Stepwise
Continuous
Life t  [ln(qi / q )  1] / bDi
b
(12)
Straight Exponential Arps
straight
Curved but
Hyperbolic Arps Continuous curve 3) Harmonic Decline
converging
Continuous curve A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as
Curved but limit Harmonic Arps which nearly
converges harmonic decline, where b is taken to be equal to 1. The
Dual – Infinite following table summarizes the equations used in harmonic
Curved but not
Amended acting amended to decline:
converging
a limiting curve
TABLE IV: HARMONIC DECLINE EQUATIONS, B = 1 (PETROBJECTS, 2004)
1) Exponential Decline [14]
Description Equation
As mentioned above, in the exponential decline, the
well’s production data plots as a straight line on a semi-log Rate
q  qi (1  bDi t ) 1 / b
(13)
paper. The equation of the straight line on the semi-log
paper is given in Table II.
Cumulative
N p  ( qi / Di ) ln( qi / q ) (14)
Oil Production
Where: Nominal
Di  [ Dei /(1  Dei )] (15)
q = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day Decline Rate
qi = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day
Effective
Decline Rate
Dei  (qi  q) / qi (16)
D = nominal exponential decline rate, 1/day Life t  [(qi / q )  1] / Di (17)
t = time, day
The following table summarizes the equations used in B. Material Balance Analysis using MBAL
exponential decline. For the prediction of the production of a well using
material balance method with MBAL, the production history
TABLE II: EXPONENTIAL DECLINE EQUATIONS, B = 0 (PETROBJECTS, 2004)
Description Equation
and data of the well are obtained. These data are used on
MBAL. Efficient reservoir development requires a good
Rate q  qi e  Dt (1)
understanding of reservoir and production systems. MBAL
Cumulative Oil Production N p  ( qi  q ) / D (2) helps the engineer better define reservoir drive mechanisms
and hydrocarbon volumes. This is a prerequisite for reliable
simulation studies. MBAL is commonly used for modelling

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472 21
 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

the dynamic reservoir effects prior to building a numerical From Fig. 2(a), it can be seen that the plot is
simulator model. approximately linear, therefore the exponential decline
MBAL contains the classical reservoir engineering tool method can be used to predict the rate of production from
and has redefined the use of Material Balance in modern the well at any particular time.
reservoir engineering. From Table II, the effective decline rate, De for the 20
For existing reservoirs, MBAL provides extensive years can be evaluated as:
matching facilities. Realistic production profiles can be run
for reservoirs with or without history matching. De = (2398 – 415)/(2398) = 0.827/20 = 0.04135/year
MBAL is an intuitive program with a logical structure Then the nominal decline rate, D is:
that enables the reservoir engineer to develop reliable
reservoir models quickly. D = -ln(1 – 0.827) = 1.754/20 = 0.0877/year

IV. RESULTS The rate of flow at any time can be predicted from (1) in
Table II. This is used to estimate the rate of flow from the
A. Case for Decline Curve Analysis
well from 2010 till 2020 as shown in Table V(b):
Data were collected for a well. The production history for
the well is presented in Tables V(a) and VI(f). TABLE V(B): RATE OF FLOW AND CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION PREDICTION
Cumulative
Oil Rate
TABLE V(A): PRODUCTION HISTORY OF WELL A Year Time, year Production
(Q), stb/day
Cumulative (Np), stb
Oil Rate (Q), 1990 1 2398
Year Time, year Production
stb/day 1991 2 1500 863280
(Np), stb
1990 1 2398 1992 3 1411 1403280
1991 2 1500 863280 1993 4 1320 1911240
1992 3 1411 1403280 1994 5 1195 2386440
1993 4 1320 1911240 1995 6 1083 2816640
1994 5 1195 2386440 1996 7 904 3206520
1995 6 1083 2816640 1997 8 900 3531960
1996 7 904 3206520 1998 9 837 3855960
1999 10 812 4157280
1997 8 900 3531960
2000 11 789 4449600
1998 9 837 3855960
2001 12 774 4733640
1999 10 812 4157280
2002 13 700 5012280
2000 11 789 4449600 2003 14 593 5264280
2001 12 774 4733640 2004 15 529 5477760
2002 13 700 5012280 2005 16 506 5668200
2003 14 593 5264280 2006 17 487 5850360
2004 15 529 5477760 2007 18 440 6025680
2005 16 506 5668200 2008 19 418 6184080
2006 17 487 5850360 2009 20 415 6334560
2007 18 440 6025680 2010 21 380 8407511.24
2011 22 348 8540523.83
2008 19 418 6184080
2012 23 319 8662368.1
2009 20 415 6334560
2013 24 292 8773981.79
2014 25 268 8876223.92
The production history is to be used to predict rate of 2015 26 245 8969881.35
flow from the well up till 2020. Using the data in Table V(a) 2016 27 225 9055674.89
for Well A, the semi-log plot of Q against Time in years is 2017 28 206 9134264.83
shown in Fig. 2(a) below: 2018 29 188 9206256.03
2019 30 173 9272202.52
10000 2020 31 158 9332611.86

The semi-log plot of Flow rate against time covering

1000
1990 to 2020 is shown in Fig. 2(b):
Q, stb/day

100

10

1
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time, year
Fig. 2(a). Semi-log Plot of Q against Time (1990 – 2009)

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472 22
 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

10000 B. Production Prediction of Well A using Material

Balance
1000 The reservoir and well data for prediction of production
using material balance method with MBAL is given in
Q, stb/day

Tables VI(a) to VI(f).

100

TABLE VI(A): PVT DATA

10 Parameter Value
GOR 1720 scf/stb
Oil Gravity 41.9 API
1
0 10 20 30 40 Gas Gravity 0.65
Time, year
Water Salinity 10000 ppm
Fig. 2(b). Semi-log Plot of Q against Time (1990 – 2020)
Mole % Sulphide 0
Mole % Carbon dioxide 0
The Cartesian plot of Flow rate against Year covering
1990 to 2020 is shown in Fig. 2(c). Mole % Nitrogen 0

3000 TABLE VI(B): TANK DATA

Parameter Value
2500 Tank type Oil
Temperature 1900F
2000
Q, stb/day

Initial Pressure 4458psig

1500
Porosity 0.24
1000
Connate Water Saturation 0.09
500 Water Compressibility Use Correlation
0 Initial Gas Cap 0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
OOIP 42mmstb
Year
Start of Production 01/01/1990
Fig. 2(c). Plot of Q against Time (1990 – 2020)

The Cartesian plots of Cumulative Production against TABLE VI(C): WATER INFLUX (CATER TRACY MODEL)
Time covering 1990 to 2020 are shown in Fig. 2(d) and 2(e). Parameter Value Unit
Res Thickness 208.235 feet
10000000 Res Radius 14607.1 feet
9000000 Outer/Inner Rad ratio 39.9005
8000000
7000000 Encroachment Angle 320.519 degrees
6000000 Aquifer Permeability 24.3658 md
Np, stb

5000000
4000000 TABLE VI(D): PORE VOLUME VS DEPTH
3000000
Pore vol Depth
2000000 -1 10032
1000000
0 10192
0
0 10 20 30 40 1 10310
Time, year
Fig 2(d). Plot of Np against Time (1990 – 2020) TABLE VI(E): RELATIVE PERMEABILITY
Res Sat.
(fraction) End Point Exponent
10000000 Krw 0.09 0.8 3.6
9000000 Kro 0.1 0.81 3.6
8000000
Krg 0.05 0.8 3.6
7000000
Np, stb

6000000
5000000 TABLE VI(F): PRODUCTION HISTORY
4000000 Year Time, year Oil Rate Cumulative
3000000 (Q), stb/day Production
2000000 (Np), stb
1000000 1990 1 2398
0 1991 2 1500 863280
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1992 3 1411 1403280
Year 1993 4 1320 1911240
Fig 2(e). Plot of Np against Year (1990 – 2020) 1994 5 1195 2386440
1995 6 1083 2816640
1996 7 904 3206520

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 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

1997 8 900 3531960

1998 9 837 3855960
1999 10 812 4157280
2000 11 789 4449600
2001 12 774 4733640
2002 13 700 5012280
2003 14 593 5264280
2004 15 529 5477760
2005 16 506 5668200
2006 17 487 5850360
2007 18 440 6025680
2008 19 418 6184080
2009 20 415 6334560

Fig. 3(c). MBAL Interface for Oil Data Input (Source: Petroleum Experts
The first MBAL interface is as shown in Fig. 3(a) where Limited) [15]
you can start your analysis. The second interface is gotten
by clicking Options to fill the system options as shown in The next is to input the production history, tank
Fig. 3(b). parameters, pore volume vs depth, relative permeability etc.
This is done by clicking Input and then clicking Tank data.
Then go to History Matching and click on Analytical
Method and Energy Plot to generate the plot of tank
pressure against calculated oil production for with water
influx and without water influx and the plots of the effects
of different energy drive mechanisms on the production of
oil respectively. The Analytical Method and Energy Plots
are as shown in Fig. 3(d) and 3(e) respectively.

Fig. 3(a). First MBAL Interface (Source: Petroleum Experts Limited) [15]

Fig. 3(d). MBAL Interface for Analytical Plot (Source: Petroleum Experts
Fig. 3(b). MBAL Interface for System Options (Source: Petroleum Experts Limited) [15]
Limited) [15]

Then proceed to PVT on the material balance interface,

click on PVT, click on Fluid Properties to fill the PVT data
as shown in Fig. 3(c).

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472 24
 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

27.99 3719.04 411.984

28.99 3702.81 411.984
29.99 3686.39 411.984
31 3669.72 411.984

V. CONCLUSION
Prediction analyses on a well were carried out in this
paper. The result of the analyses has shown that the rate of
oil production from a well can actually be predicted.
Different rates were gotten for the different prediction
analyses. The cumulative production of oil from well A was
also predicted using decline curve analysis.
From the predictions made using the analyses, the
following conclusions may be drawn:
1) The trend followed by the semi-log curve of the flow
rate of oil against time determines the particular kind of
decline curve prediction method to be used. Exponential
decline is used when the decline is approximately linear
or linear. Hyperbolic decline is used when the decline is
a converging curve. Harmonic decline is used when the
decline is a curve that has limit.
2) Different prediction methods give different values of
rates of oil.
3) As much as the rate of flow of oil from the well can be
Fig. 3(e). MBAL Interface for Energy Plot (Source: Petroleum Experts
Limited) [15]
predicted, the cumulative production of oil from the
well can also be predicted.
On the same dropdown of History Matching, click Run 4) The rate of oil predicted with material balance far
Simulation, click Calc. differs from the rate of oil predicted with decline curve
Move to Production Prediction, click on it, put the analysis.
prediction setup, production and constraints, schedule and 5) The difference in the results got using decline curve and
then click Run Prediction. The production prediction is material balance analyses was due to the fact that the
performed and the results up till 2020 which is the well’s methods make use of variable estimation formulae and
31st year are extracted and as shown in Table VII. parameters. While decline curve analysis estimates
decline of production taking into account only the
TABLE VII: RESULTS OF PRODUCTION PREDICTION USING MATERIAL production history, rate and the production decline rate,
BALANCE
Time, year Tank Pressure, psia Oil Rate (Q), material balance analysis considers much more factors
stb/day in estimating oil production from reservoirs. These
7.00 4149.85 890.99 other factors include oil formation factor, gas-oil ratio
7.99 4118.49 890.99
etc.
8.99 4087.14 887.047 6) For accuracy in predicting production from a particular
9.99 4057.93 824.954 reservoir, first make a study of the particular production
11.00 4029.43 777.645 prediction method and trend that the neighbouring
11.99 4001.73 777.645 reservoirs or reservoirs of similar properties conform to,
12.99 3974.44 762.861 and apply same for the given reservoir.
13.99 3949.72 689.926
15.00 3928.74 521.387 ACKNOWLEDGMENT
15.99 3910.05 521.387 We wish to thank the Almighty God for the strength He
16.99 3892.08 498.718 granted to us throughout the course of this research. We also
17.99 3874.69 479.991 wish to acknowledge some persons, who in one way or the
19.00 3858.89 411.984 other contributed to the success of this research work. Our
19.99 3843.84 411.984 thanks go to Engr. C.M. Muonagor and Engr. Prof. E.E.
20.99 3828.67 411.984
Anyanwu whose wealth of experience and knowledge
contributed immensely to the progress of this work.
21.99 3813.40 411.984
23.00 3797.97 411.984
REFERENCES
23.99 3782.46 411.984
[1] R. Thompson and J. Wright, Oil Property Evaluation, 2nd ed.
24.99 3766.83 411.984 Golden, Colorado: Thompson-Wright Associates, 1985, ch. 5.
25.99 3751.06 411.984 [2] H. C. Slider, “A simplified method of hyperbolic decline curve
analysis,” Journal of Petroleum Technology, pp 235 – 236, vol. 20,
27.00 3735.11 411.984 issue 3, USA, 1968.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472 25
 EJERS, European Journal of Engineering Research and Science
Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2018

[3] M. A. Mian, Project Economics and Decision Analysis: Deterministic PVT = Pressure-Volume-Temperature
Models-Volume 1, USA: PennWell Books, 2011, pp. 121. q = Well’s production rate at time
[4] S. J. Pirson, “Mathematical method of decline curve extrapolation and t, STB/day
reserve calculation,” Oil Weekly, vol. 123, no. 2, pp. 45-49, Sept. Q = Oil rate, stb/day
1946. qi = Well’s production rate at time
[5] K. Li and N. Roland, “A decline curve analysis model based on fluid 0, STB/day
flow mechanisms,” presented at the SPE Western Regional/AAPG Qi = Oil rate at initial time
Pacific Section, Long Beach, California, May 19-24, 2003. Qt = Oil rate at time, t
[6] J. Oloro, G. O. Odu, and O. Oyubu, “Application of decline curve Q11 = Oil rate at the 11th year
analysis in predicting the life span of a well in Niger Delta reservoir,” Q20 = Oil rate at the 20th year
Continental Journal of Earth Sciences, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 1-8, June. Scf = Standard cubic foot
2011. Stb/d = Stock tank barrel per day
[7] J. J. Arps, “Analysis of decline curves,” Trans. AIME, pp 228 – 247, t = Time, day
0
vol. 160, no. 1, USA, 1945. F = Degree Fahrenheit
[8] M. J. Fetkovitch, E. J. Fetkovitch, and M. D. Fetkovitch, “Useful
concepts for decline curve forecasting, reserve estimation and Anyadiegwu Charley Iyke is a senior lecturer with
analysis,” SPE Reservoir Engineering, pp 13 – 22, vol. 11, no. 1, the Department of Petroleum Engineering, Federal
USA, 1996. University of Technology, Owerri, Imo State,
[9] Y. Cheng, Y. Wang, D. McVay, and M. Lee, “Practical application of Nigeria. He was born on November 7, 1970 at
a probabilistic approach to estimate reserves using production decline Nnewi, Anambra State, Nigeria. He earned a Ph.D. in
data,” SPE Economics and Management, pp 19 – 31, vol. 2, no. 1, Petroleum Engineering with Federal University of
USA, 2010. Technology, Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria in 2012. His
[10] V. A. Jochen and J. P. Spivey, “Probabilistic reserve estimation using major field of study is Petroleum Engineering (Oil
decline curve analysis with the bootstrap method,” presented at the and Gas).
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver, Colorado, He has been a lecturer in Petroleum and Gas
October 6-9, 1996. Engineering since 1999 with Department of Petroleum Engineering,
[11] D. Sutawanir D., N. R. Budi, and K. P. Asep, “Robust decline curve Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria. He also
analysis,” Journal of Indonesia. Mathematical. Society. (MIHMI), vol. works as an oil and gas engineering consultant for Sasog Oil and Gas
15, no. 2, pp. 105-111, Oct. 2009. Consult and Sigma Oil and Gas Consult, Port Harcourt, Nigeria. He worked
[12] J. J. Arps, “Estimation of primary oil reserves,” Trans. AIME, pp 182 previously as a postgraduate researcher with Shell Petroleum Development
– 191, vol. 207, no. 1, USA, 1956. Company of Nigeria, Limited, Port Harcourt, Nigeria. He has authored and
[13] K. P. Ojo and S. O. Osisanya, “Material balance revisited,” presented co-authored over 45 journal publications and has one book to his credit.
at the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, The title of the book is Technical and Economic Evaluation of Gas Storage
Abuja, Nigeria, July 31 – August 2, 2006. Reservoirs, Lambert Academic Publishing, Germany, 2012. Some of his
[14] Decline Curves Estimation Methods, Petrobjects, Massachusetts, publications include: Development and Application of CLOGEN-Polymer
USA, 2004. Slug as Enhanced Oil Recovery Agent in the Niger Delta Marginal Oil
[15] MBAL, Reservoir Engineering Toolkit, Petroleum Experts Limited, Fields; American Journal of Engineering Research, Volume 2, Issue 12, pp
Edinburgh, UK, 2010. 16 – 38, U.S.A, 2013; Evaluating the Investment and Expected Revenue in
an Oil Depleted Underground Gas Storage Reservoir with Water Influx:
Petroleum and Coal, 56(4) 383 - 394, 2014, Slovakia Republic, 2014;
NOMENCLATURE Comparative Analysis of Using Natural Gas for Liquefied Natural Gas
API = American Petroleum Institute Production and Converting Natural Gas to Diesel Through Gas-To-Liquid
b = Decline exponent Technology in Nigeria. International Journal of Research in Engineering
D = Decline rate and Science, Vol 2 Issue 9, September, 2014, pp. 09 – 26, India, 2014.
D = Nominal exponential decline Engr. Dr. Anyadiegwu is member of some professional bodies which
rate, 1/day include: Council for Registered Engineers of Nigeria (COREN); Society of
De = Effective exponential decline Petroleum Engineers, International (SPE).
rate, 1/day
Di = Initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0), Nnaemeka Ohia was born in Edo State Nigeria and commenced his
1/day primary school education in Northern Nigeria.
EIA = Energy Information Administration He has a PhD in Petroleum Engineering from the Federal University of
GOR = Gas-oil ratio Technology Owerri, Nigeria in the year 2012. His current research areas
Krg = Gas relative permeability of interests include; well engineering, well intervention and completion,
Kro = Oil relative permeability vertical performance optimization, wellbore fluids, oil pollution and
Krw = Water relative permeability control, etc.
md = Millidarcy Dr. Ohia is a member of the Nigerian Society of Engineer and the
MMstb = Million stock tank barrel Council for the regulation of Engineering in Nigeria. HE also a member
Np = Cumulative oil production of the Society of Petroleum Engineers – International.
OOIP = Oil originally in place
ppm = Parts per million

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2018.3.4.472 26

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