Gartner - Automotive Trends For 2023
Gartner - Automotive Trends For 2023
Gartner - Automotive Trends For 2023
By Analyst(s): Pedro Pacheco, Mike Ramsey, Jonathan Davenport, Bill Ray, Gaurav Gupta,
Lillian Oyen-Ustad
Additional Perspectives
Overview
Opportunities
■ The impending economic crisis is an opportunity for companies focused on the
automotive sector with vision and dynamism to seize market share from rivals.
Recommendations
For CIOs overseeing manufacturing digital transformation and innovation in the
automotive industry:
■ Build a new, digitally native corporate culture, and adopt a corporate mission that is
truthful and inspiring. This will attract new talent and investors, enabling a more
successful digital transformation.
■ Step up your sustainability targets, going beyond pure compliance and cost. This
will be rewarded by investors, public opinion and your own current and future
employees. Sustainability is something a company cannot achieve by itself, so work
with your external partners (suppliers, tech providers and distributors) to set and
achieve ambitious sustainability goals.
■ Turn cybersecurity from a compliance burden to a major selling point. Go above and
beyond in this area to show customers and shareholders that your products and
company are the best protected against cybercrime and cyberterrorism.
This year’s automotive trends cover eight different critical areas that are aligned under the
following umbrella themes:
■ Strive beyond compliance. A lot of changes in the auto sector are today driven by
current or future regulation: electrification, cybersecurity, sustainability. The
temptation of sticking to compliance is big as this is the most financially viable way
to achieve it — but only in the short term. Instead, automotive companies must set
the bar way above regulatory demands — failing to do so will impact, sooner or later,
their sales performance and market value.
If you keep doing something as you did 10 years ago, in an industry undergoing as
profound a transformation as automotive, then most likely you need to change it — and
fast.
Supply Chain Shortages Are 2023 Is the Moment of Tech Complexity and High
Here to Stay Truth for BEVs Costs Swing the Autonomy
Pendulum From L4 Back to
ADAS Offerings
Source: Gartner
Description:
Shortages of key parts, materials and labor caused by surging demand as well as war,
politics and the COVID-19 pandemic have shaken the automotive supply chain. More than
two years after the pandemic began, carmakers still cannot forecast an end to shortages
of semiconductor chips or the subsequent shortage of vehicles they can produce. In
addition, key materials for battery-electric vehicle (BEV) batteries are in short supply,
causing the prices of commodities to surge. 1,2,3 However, shortages expand to even more
components. The vehicle shortage is likely to continue in 2023, though it may ease
slightly.
Why Trending:
Implications:
The first result of the shortage has been for automakers to invest in their own chipmaking
capabilities. In addition, car companies are studying reshoring some manufacturing
capacity or building separate supply chains for certain markets. 4 Automakers already try
to make as much as they can in the markets where they sell products, but that trend may
accelerate in 2023.
Actions:
OEMs:
■ Support collaborative actions for enabling open data exchange across the supply
chain, like Catena-X.
■ Build strong supply chain visibility, then use this data to develop a precise digital
twin of it. Together with AI and simulation capabilities, this will allow you to test
different scenarios to help your company respond more efficiently to future
disruptions.
Trend 2: Legacy Makers Push for Functions-as-a-Service Sales, but Must First Convince
Customers
Description:
Functions as a service (FaaS) refers to the ability to enable new vehicle capabilities after a
vehicle has left the factory, throughout its lifetime. For automakers, this is an opportunity
to generate an ongoing revenue stream beyond the purchase of the vehicle. However,
many consumers do not yet understand the concept, something that hampers their
willingness to pay for FaaS.
Why Trending:
BMW has led in the space of FaaS with 14 different applications that can be consumed
on either a trial, monthly, yearly, three-yearly or unlimited basis. Aurora Lab’s 2022
Automotive Software Survey shows that 44% of consumers are willing to pay $20 a
month for vehicle services, and 14% would pay up to $50 a month. 5 However, Mercedes
Benz is limiting its $1,200 charge to add 100 horsepower to its EQE and EQS models to
the U.S. due to perceived legal issues of doing so in the EU. 6 Plus, BMW had to calm
concerns that customers voiced after the company announced offering drivers the ability
to pay for heated seats on a monthly basis. 7
One of the biggest hurdles that will need to be overcome relates to customer realization
that the vehicle they bought has hardware capable of delivering certain functionality (for
example, heated seats, engine power, battery range), but that paywalls restrict
functionality. This may become a major reason for customer dissatisfaction.
Implications:
Actions:
OEMs:
■ Avoid deploying FaaS use cases that completely lock access to hardware for
nonpaying customers in order to avoid customer frustration.
Suppliers/tech vendors:
■ Enable new FaaS use cases as part of the hardware and software you supply to
automakers, as these will be crucial for their future profitability model.
Description:
Several factors will make 2023 a true test to the resolve of governments and the industry
in driving full electrification forward:
■ Charging infrastructure still has many coverage gaps and the quality of service is
poor. 8
■ Some countries, like the U.K. and Switzerland, are starting to introduce EV taxation. 9
■ Spike in electricity prices in Europe make BEV running costs less attractive.
■ The increase continues in the price of critical raw materials like nickel and lithium. 10
■ Inflation and the threat of economic crisis make consumers less likely to buy BEVs
as they are, on average, more expensive than a conventional combustion vehicle.
Why Trending:
Current political and economic instability will make some governments less generous
toward BEVs. This comes at a bad time, as BEV user experience still needs considerable
improvement — namely, in terms of driving range and EV charging network. The sharp
increase in raw materials like lithium that shot up exponentially since 2021 will inherently
drive BEV cost higher, which will make it hard for OEMs to close the price gap with internal
combustion.
Implications:
BEV sales may grow at considerably lower pace or stall in some markets. This means that
investments related to BEVs may take longer to achieve break even. In addition, the
impending scenario may affect the confidence of several companies that see the BEV
market as a business opportunity.
Actions:
OEMs:
■ Venture into the energy market as a way to create new business opportunities and
expand your profit potential.
■ Determine and occupy the best location for EV charging by using technology
solutions from companies like Neura or Citi Logik, for instance.
Description:
After the online sales success of Tesla and the pandemic-driven move to digital, several
automakers have pledged to sell a major part of their volume online by 2025. However,
2023 will be a deceptive year for automotive online sales. Automakers and retailers will
keep investing in this area, but the sense of urgency is less than what it was in 2020,
leading to a slower pace of transformation.
Why Trending:
The current supply chain shortages will continue into 2023, consequently keeping supply
constraints for new and used vehicles. This means automakers will feel less pressure to
transition into heavily digital retail processes. The plans are still there, but the timeline is
now expanded. Moreover, the difficulties experienced by digital-only used car retailers like
Carvana or Cazoo works as a breath of relief for traditional players in this space, who now
have fewer incentives to transform their operations. 11,12
Implications:
Actions:
OEMs:
■ Keep the focus on online sales and other digital retail tech without extending
timelines, as the need will be there in the new future.
■ Use the current situation as a way to get ahead of your competition as they become
more complacent concerning new retail investments.
Tech providers:
■ Prioritize China and Europe as markets; the former presents more consumer
openness to technology and the latter is more likely to experience the effects of an
economic slowdown first.
Description:
Why Trending:
Connections are multiplying as car vendors start to leverage the shared experience of
every driver, to learn more about how components (and cars) wear and to provide options
for preemptive maintenance and servicing. Connectivity is also perceived as an enabler of
new revenue streams, while mobile network operators are keen to promote automotive
connectivity as an additional revenue stream.
Multiple applications could, in theory, be delivered over the same connection, with some
services taking priority. However, it may be desirable for the vehicle owner to pay for
infotainment data, while the vehicle vendor pays for telematic tracking. Automated
emergency systems, such as Europe’s eCall, often require isolation for resilience. Vehicle-
to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) applications use a different frequency
band, and are very intolerant to latency. We have even seen some automotive vendors,
notably Geely, look to satellite connectivity to bypass existing mobile operators. 14
This combination of factors is multiplying the modems, and will keep the networks
separate for a decade.
Implications:
Actions:
OEMs:
■ Avoid being locked into a specific mobile operator or network technology by utilizing
eSIM technology for cellular connections and monitoring developments in LEO
constellations.
Suppliers/tech vendors:
Description:
Robotaxi rollout expectations have deflated across the industry. The CEO of Luminar (one
of the leading lidar companies) recently said in an interview that robotaxis at any
appreciable scale won’t be seen before 2035 and it won’t be before 2050 when they are
more widespread. 15 There still remain major challenges in launching L4 autonomous
vehicles (AVs), and their proliferation has been slowed down by various obstacles:
Why Trending:
Despite delays in robotaxi deployments, OEMs and Tier 1s have continued to invest in
fully self-driving technology. But with calls around recession becoming more pronounced,
companies face headwinds and pressure from investors on revenue and profits.
Ford recently announced that it is shifting its strategy from development of fully
autonomous driving technology (L4 and beyond) to partially automated features that it
and other automakers already offer. Ford and VW decided to shut down Argo AI, the AV
technology company that both companies were backing.
Implications:
The Argo AI announcement can potentially have a rippling impact on the industry. Even
after years of research and investment, only Waymo and Cruise operate commercial
robotaxi operations in the U.S., and that, too, is confined to specific geographies. Both
companies are still not profitable with their robotaxi operations and continue to incur
annual losses, implying that only those with very deep pockets will survive this market.
Actions:
■ Tailor your products and services for the AV ecosystem toward generating revenue
now by renewing focus on L2+/L3 vehicles as discussed in Tech CEOs Should
Reprioritize Their Strategies as Robotaxi Deployment Expectations Cool.
Description:
2022 has been the major turning point for vehicle cybersecurity, with the enforcement of
the UN R155, the world’s first vehicle cybersecurity regulation (see How Automotive CIOs
Can Lead a Successful Cybersecurity Implementation and Comply With WP.29 UN R155).
So far, its application is restricted to newly homologated vehicles launched in the EU,
Japan, South Korea and a few other countries. Meanwhile, UN R155 has yet to attract
automakers in other markets. Moreover, a lot of work is yet to be done at the enterprise
side. Automotive companies are still holding on to a lot of legacy architecture that
constitutes several vulnerabilities.
Why Trending:
Automotive companies are trying to transform themselves into software companies but
their corporate mindset is, in many cases, lacking — and this is the main obstacle. A
company that doesn’t truly understand the value of software will struggle not only to be
good at it but also to understand the major risk it could represent. This means the
leadership of automotive companies must understand that cybersecurity is a major
business risk mitigation factor, especially when faulty vehicle operation can threaten
human lives. Security services from several western nations have warned about an
impending increase in cyberattacks led by foreign powers or criminal groups. 16 These will
also affect automotive companies, which will see their many vulnerabilities being more
frequently exploited.
Implications:
Actions:
OEMs:
Suppliers/tech providers:
■ Help automakers understand how much they need to improve their vehicle CSMS in
order to be future-ready and avoid more costly short-term improvements.
Description:
Regulation also starts targeting multiple aspects of sustainability across the supply chain.
For instance, Germany’s new Supply Chain Due Diligence Act, in effect as of 1 January
2023, forces companies to take responsibility for the actions of all their supply chain
partners — from suppliers of components to the businesses that further process or sell the
products manufactured. Pleading ignorance will no longer be an option for automotive
companies based in Germany.
The transition to BEVs also brings a growing interest in battery recycling, driven mostly as
a way to counter the rise in cost and scarcity of battery raw materials. Battery recycling
will become even more important in Europe due to new regulations such as EU carbon
border taxes and mandatory digital product passports. 20 See Quick Answer: How Will
Proposed European Legislation Impact Circular Economy for Batteries?
Why Trending:
Global regulations are tightening around climate impacts, human rights and corporate
governance. Investors also reward companies who unequivocally go above and beyond in
sustainability. One of the best examples comes from Tesla — today the most valuable
automaker in the world, as investors saw its no-compromise approach to BEVs as a game-
changer for future value creation. In addition, more recent drivers like the energy crisis and
raw material scarcity provided an extra incentive for sustainability measures.
Implications:
Actions:
■ Accelerate sustainability targets to clearly raise the bar above all your competitors —
this will grant you the support from the investor community.
Evidence
1
Toyota Profit to Rise but Eyes Will Be on Its Shaky Supply Chain, EV Strategy, Reuters.
2
Volkswagen: Supply Chain Problems Now the Rule, Not Exception, Reuters.
3
Ford’s October Sales Slide 10% Amid Supply Chain Issues, CNBC.
4
Why Honda Could Try to Decouple Its Supply Chain From China, Automotive News.
5
The State of Automotive Software, Aurora Labs
6
Europe Won’t Allow Mercedes’ EV Performance Subscription Fee, for Now: Report, The
Drive
7
Statement of Clarification Regarding BMW Functions on Demand in the U.S. Market,
BMW of North America
8
Growing Electric Vehicle Market Threatens to Short-Circuit Public Charging Experience,
J.D. Power.
9
Swiss Plan Tax on EVs to Help Finance Roads, Automotive News Europe.
10
Lithium — 2023 Data, Trading Economics.
11
Carvana Stock Rout Hits 97% This Year With Used-Car Prices Crumble, Bloomberg.
13
Ford CEO Offers More Clues About Automaker’s Ambitious Electric Vehicle Plans,
CNBC.
14
China’s Geely Launches First Nine Low-Orbit Satellites for Autonomous Cars, Reuters.
15
Robotaxis Are More Than a Decade Away, Says Luminar’s CEO Austin Russell, Time.
16
U.S. Warns of ‘Increased’ Threats From Russian Hacking Groups, TechTarget.
17
General Motors, the Largest U.S. Automaker, Plans to Be Carbon Neutral by 2040, GM.
18
Way to Zero: Volkswagen Presents Roadmap for Climate-Neutral Mobility, VW.
19
BMW to Reduce Carbon Emissions in Car Life Cycle 40% by 2030, Reuters.
20
Ecodesign for Sustainable Products, European Commission.
Toolkit: Top 10 Trends in Automotive and Smart Mobility for 2020 - 31 January 2020
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Prepare for Economic Impact Focus on Corporate Mindset Strive Beyond Compliance
Supply Chain Shortages Are Here to Stay 2023 Is the Moment of Truth for BEVs Tech Complexity and High Costs Swing the
Autonomy Pendulum From L4 Back to ADAS
Offerings
Legacy Makers Push for FaaS Sales, but Must First Online Retail Transformation Slows Down Investment in Cybersecurity Climbs, but Mostly
Convince Customers Due to Compliance
Source: Gartner