652 653 1 PB
652 653 1 PB
652 653 1 PB
Achilles Costales
College of Social Sciences, University of the Philippines Baguio
1
Paper presented at the Philippine Economic Society 48th Annual Meeting, 12
November 2010, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.
42 Costales: Livestock sector development, economic growth, and poverty reduction
1. Introduction
Between 2000 and 2030, the demand for animal source foods (ASF) in
developing countries is projected to continue its strong expansion from the
previous decade due to growing populations and rising per capita incomes.
For developing country regions in the aggregate, demand is seen to double;
particularly in low-income countries (LICs), the increase is projected to be
more than 150 percent [Robinson and Pozzi, forthcoming].As of 2007, most
of the developing country regions continue to be net importers of milk
and meat products [FAOSTAT 2010]. It is argued that meeting a great part
of this growing demand by developing countries through growth in their
livestock sector could serve as a vehicle for broad-based economic growth
and development.This paper traces the literature on the nature of pro-poor
growth, and attempts to present how growth in the agriculture sector in
general, and in the livestock sector in particular, can be a catalyst for pro-poor
growth in developing countries, most especially in low-income countries.
Most economists and policy makers would agree that economic growth
is essential for poverty reduction (Dollar and Kraay [2002];Valdés and Foster
[2005]; Diaz-Bonilla [2007]). Evidence strongly indicates that sustained
growth continues to be a necessary condition for reducing poverty [Valdés
and Foster 2007]. Economists also contend that high economic growth
alone is not sufficient to effect a rapid reduction in poverty (Lopéz [2006];
Balisacan [2007]; Ravallion [2007]). For example, Ravallion [2007] carried
out further investigations on the relationship among economic growth,
changes in inequality, and poverty reduction, spanning a period from about
1980 to the early 2000s. In general, across countries, it appeared that growth,
on average, tended to be roughly distribution-neutral.The author, however,
cautions against making hasty policy implications on the finding, which
merely revealed that, on average, in the process of growth over the period,
there was very little effective redistribution, in favor of either the poor or the
nonpoor.This does not imply that to reduce poverty, distribution outcomes
are unimportant for the poor, and that policy makers in developing countries
should focus on economic growth alone. In general, therefore, while growth,
on average, leads to poverty reduction, economic growth can be a blunt
instrument in fighting poverty in countries with extreme inequality, unless
that growth is coupled with improvements in income distribution. The
The Philippine Review of Economics, Volume XLVII No. 2 December 2010 43
Agriculture- Trans-
Urbanized
based forming
countries
countries countries
Share of agriculture value-added in GDP (%) 29 13 6
Share of rural population (%) 68 63 26
Share of agricultural workers in the labor force (%) 65 57 18
Total poverty rate (%) 49 22 8
Rural poverty rate (%) 51 28 13
Urban poverty rate (%) 45 11 6
Share of rural poor in total poor (%) 70 80 46
Total population (million) 615 3510 965
Source: World Bank [2007].
50
40
30
Percent
20
10
0
SSA EAP South MENA LAC EECA LICs*
Asia
Region
* Based on WB classification.
Source: FAOSTAT [2010].
within the agriculture sector where as countries move up the growth and
development ladder, the high-value sectors (such as livestock, dairy, and
fruit and vegetable sectors) expand and the formerly dominant staple sector
recedes. Focusing on LICs such as those in SSA, where poverty incidence is
prevalent, the importance of the livestock sector as a venue for poverty
reduction lies in the sector’s potential as a rapid growth sector in agriculture
and the rural economy.
The link between the livestock sector and the other sectors lies in the
extent of the market relations between livestock-producing households and
the rest of the economy.Although poor agricultural households are thought
to be subsistence oriented, their market involvement is more extensive
than commonly perceived. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Rural Income Generating Activities (RIGA) data set involving 12 sample
countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America shows that purely subsistence
households were rare, and that the vast majority of rural households are
partly engaged in market activities, even if they aim also to produce food
for home consumption. Farm households in majority of the countries sold
between 30 percent and 68 percent of their livestock to the market, and that
the poorest households (bottom quintile) were as likely as their wealthier
counterparts to sell about the same proportion of livestock produce to
the market.
The Philippine Review of Economics, Volume XLVII No. 2 December 2010 47
population). A ratio greater than unity indicates that the livestock sector
multiplier is larger than that of the comparison sector; a ratio less than unity
implies otherwise.The computed estimates for the ratios under Fruits and
Vegetables for two regions have been adjusted to exclude two countries
that are obvious outliers, Malaysia in East Asia and the Pacific, and Nigeria
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Their inclusion significantly inflates the weighted
regional values, as well as the overall Developing Countries value.
Table 6 reveals that across all developing country regions and for all
comparisons, the ratio is always above unity.Across all developing country
regions, the income multiplier of livestock production is around double that
of crops, although less than double that of fruits and vegetables. Compared
with manufacturing, livestock sector growth has almost four times the
multiplier effect while compared with services, the advantage of livestock
is the least. Within regions, there is substantial variation in the extent to
which the income multiplier impacts of the livestock sector exceed those
of the comparison sectors, indicating variation in the degree to which these
sectors themselves are integrated with the rest of the national economy.
Fruits &
Region Crops Manufacturing Services
vegetables
EAP* 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.4
China 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.3
EECA 3.3 1.9 4.0 1.0
LAC 1.8 1.1 2.5 1.3
MENA 2.6 1.1 3.3 1.1
South Asia 1.3 1.2 2.6 1.3
India 1.1 1.3 2.1 1.6
SSA** 3.4 2.9 18.0 1.9
All Regions 1.9 1.6 3.8 1.3
High-income countries 1.5 1.0 1.8 0.9
Source: Derived from GTAP database (accessed 2010).
* Malaysia: F&V multiplier = 0.005; LS/F&V ratio = 211.9.
** Nigeria: F&V multiplier = 0.09; LS/F&V ratio = 34.4.
In general, under all sector comparisons, the ratios are markedly larger
in developing countries as a whole than in the high-income country group.
52 Costales: Livestock sector development, economic growth, and poverty reduction
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54 Costales: Livestock sector development, economic growth, and poverty reduction