Circular Debt Paper Hasnain Updated
Circular Debt Paper Hasnain Updated
Circular Debt Paper Hasnain Updated
Hasnain Akram
(February, 2023)
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
Abstract
This paper sheds light on the growing circular debt in the power sector of Pakistan. It briefly
explains the origin of circular debt and its impact on country’s economy. It probes into the
factors contributing to ever ballooning circular debt and suggests some policy
recommendations to stem its growth.
Executive Summary
Power sector’s circular debt emerged in 2006 due to increase in global fuel prices and has been
ballooning ever since such that it reached Rs. 2.25 trillion till the end of June 2022. Its roots
can be traced back to 1990s when expensive and unsustainable contracts were made with
Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Majority of the IPPs being imported fuels based plants,
led to higher cost of electricity generation. The difference between NEPRA notified power
tariffs and government issued rates (lower than the ones notified by NEPRA due to political
reasons) leads to deficit within the power sector. Furthermore, higher transmission and
distribution losses and poor bill recovery by DISCOs (Electricity Distribution Companies) have
been contributing to ballooning circular debt. Successive governments have been increasing
power tariffs to recover cost of electricity and to pay off the circular debt. These power tariff
hikes have resulted in high cost of doing business, decline in investment, drop in productivity,
and increase in inflation, ultimately impeding the country’s economic growth. Therefore, a
financial overhaul of DISCOs is integral to control the circular debt. Steps like breaking down
of large DISCOs into smaller units, technological interventions to prevent electricity theft and
improve bill recovery, revision of IPPs contracts and rationalization of power subsidies can
help in reducing the circular debt in country’s power sector.
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
Introduction
Circular debt is a persistent problem in Pakistan that has caused significant economic and
energy-related challenges. Unfortunately, the issue of circular debt in the power sector has not
been controlled yet despite efforts by successive governments. The power, petroleum, and
natural gas sectors are the three largest contributors to the circular debt in the energy sector,
contributing Rs. 2,277 billion, Rs. 600 billion, and Rs. 1,400 billion respectively till the end of
2022.1 Though the circular debt emerged in 2006 in the power sector, its seeds were sown in
1990s with the implementation of short-sighted contracts with Independent Power Producers
(IPPs). It allowed furnace oil based expensive power generation plants and burdened the
governments with the increasing capacity payments. Expensive energy fuel mix, loss incurring
DISCOs (Power Distribution Companies), flawed and delayed power tariff determination and
unbudgeted subsidies are some of the other factors contributing to the growing circular debt in
power sector. The accumulation of circular debt in the power sector is affecting not only the
available capacity but also the creditworthiness of the country in the eyes of investors. The
governments have been increasing the power tariff to pay off the debt (capacity payments
mainly). These power tariff hikes have resulted in high cost of doing business, decline in
investment, drop in productivity, and increase in inflation, ultimately impeding the country’s
economic growth. Therefore, it needs immediate attention of policy makers.
1
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2391025/circular-debt-soars-past-rs4177bn
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
Circular Debt in the power sector was recorded in FY2006 for the first time due to a sharp rise
in international fuel prices.3 Because of global increase in fuel prices, the generation cost of
electricity also went up, but consumer-end tariffs remained almost static keeping in view the
political consideration. Power tariffs started increasing in 2008 and onwards but they were not
at par with the cost recovery rate and thus, engendered deficit in the power sector. The crisis at
hand can be traced back to the 1990s, specifically during the unbundling of WAPDA, where
ill-advised long-term contracts were made with private independent power producers (IPPs)
without proper long-term impact analysis. This mistake was repeated over the years as more
IPPs were given licenses to add more installed power generation capacity without updating
transmission and distribution infrastructure. This burdened both the energy sector and the
overall economy, with the circular debt reaching a staggering amount of Rs 2.25 trillion till the
end of June 2022, equivalent to 3.4% of the GDP. The cumulative losses incurred by the sector
since FY2006 are estimated to be around Rs 5.7 trillion, which accounts for a significant 9%
2
https://pide.org.pk/research/circular-debt-an-unfortunate-misnomer/
3
https://pide.org.pk/research/circular-debt-an-unfortunate-misnomer/
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
of the current GDP.4 Figure 2 highlights the growth of circular debt over the years under
different political regimes.
The effects of circular debt are far-reaching and damaging to the economy. It has led to high
tariffs, high cost of doing business, decline in investment, increase in power outages, and
decrease in productivity; impeding the economic growth. Additionally, circular debt has put
significant pressure on the public finances, forcing it to allocate a large portion of its budget to
repay the debt. As outflows in the power sector are guaranteed payments, government borrows
from commercial banks to finance the deficit in the power sector. It leads to crowding out
private borrowing. Since a huge share of budget is spent to finance the power sector deficit,
other development expenditures are neglected. For example, from FY07 to FY19, the
government provided a cumulative budgetary support of around Rs. 3,202 billion to the power
sector, out of which Rs. 2.86 trillion was paid on account of budgetary subsidies and Rs. 342
4
https://pide.org.pk/research/power-sector-an-enigma-with-no-easy-solution/
5
https://pide.org.pk/research/power-sector-an-enigma-with-no-easy-solution/
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
billion in other liquidity injections.6 As a bulk of budget is disbursed to finance the power sector
deficit, the budgetary space for development expenditures is shrinked. A case in point is the
electricity subsidies given in FY2020 which accounted for almost 8% of net revenue. Whereas,
education sector received hardly 2.6% in total.7 Despite various measures taken by successive
governments, power sector financial losses are increasing. Declining budgetary support in the
development sectors have negatively impacted labor productivity, ultimately leading to a
decline in economic productivity. Figure 3 highlights the impact of shortfall in the cash flow
(due to poor recovery and higher T&D losses) on circular debt and consequently on the
economic growth.
Following are the five key contributors to the circular debt flow:
6
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2199737/two-decades-flawed-policies-power-producers-make-
billions-pakistan
7
https://pide.org.pk/pdfpideresearch/wp-0191-circular-debt-an-unfortunate-misnomer.pdf
8
https://primeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/DISCOs-Report-PRIME.pdf
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
1994 power policy combined with successive power policies, offered lucrative incentives, such
as tax exemptions, free repatriation of equity and dividends, and guaranteed capacity payments,
to Independent Power Producers (IPPs) for adding into the installed generation capacity. The
contracts didn’t mention checks on expensive fuel utilization by the IPPs. It led to an increase
in the generation cost because of capacity payments component under ‘Take or Pay’ model.
Dollar based rate of return to IPPs have further burdened the national exchequer as the rupee
has been consistently devaluing. As a result, demand for electricity has gone down due to rising
cost affecting revenues of DISCOs, and accordingly, payables to IPPs are ballooning adding to
the circular debt.
9
https://pide.org.pk/research/circular-debt-an-unfortunate-misnomer/
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
The rates notified by the government for end consumers are often lower than the tariffs
recommended by NEPRA (National Electric Power Regulatory Authority) due to political
reasons. This creates a disparity between electricity costs and revenues. Additionally, the
notification process is frequently delayed by an average of 9-12 months.10 This delay also adds
to payment arrears. To cover the fiscal gap between actual cost and notified rate, the
government provides tariff differential subsidies to the DISCOs (Distribution Companies).
However, many a times the government is unable to make timely payments or delays them.
Because of financial constraints, the government passes on the costs to compliant consumers
through taxes, surcharges, and tariff hikes. This puts a burden on consumers, in the form of
increased power tariffs, and diminishes their purchasing power, leading to reduced electricity
demand and subsequently lower bill collection by the DISCOs. The bills’ low recovery feeds
into circular debt.
4- High Transmission and Distribution Losses and Poor Revenue Collection by the
DISCOs
All the DISCOs including K-Electric have been incurring huge T&D losses and facing low
recovery of the billed amount (due to leakages, electricity theft and non-compliance) which
add to the circular debt accumulation. Table 1 shows the contribution of DISCOs to the circular
owing to T&D losses and poor bill recovery over the fiscal years 16-20.
5- Unbudgeted Subsidies
10
Energy Sector Reforms and Financial Sustainability Program (Subprogram 2), Circular Debt Impact on Power
Sector Investment
https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/pak-53165-002-rrp
11
https://primeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/DISCOs-Report-PRIME.pdf
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
FY2019 to FY2020. The budget allocation for government subsidies has decreased from
PRs240 billion to PRs120 billion for the period from FY2020 to FY2021.12
Source: Circular Debt Impact on Power Sector Investment, Energy Sector Reforms and
Financial Sustainability Program (Subprogram 2)13
Policy Recommendations:
o Municipality model
12
Energy Sector Reforms and Financial Sustainability Program (Subprogram 2), Circular Debt Impact on Power
Sector Investment
https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/pak-53165-002-rrp
13
Energy Sector Reforms and Financial Sustainability Program (Subprogram 2), Circular Debt Impact on Power
Sector Investment
https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/pak-53165-002-rrp
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
Government needs to make all the DISCOs independent. DISCOS cannot run according to the
service model. As per this model, Municipality needs to buy electricity in bulk, collect the bills,
and pay back. This model can be extended from the municipality to the district level. The
rationale behind this municipality model is that due to ministerial influence, via PEPCO,
DISCOs employees cannot recover the bills from consumers who have political backing. And
so, they can't make decisions as well. Hence, decentralized control is a must, which can only
be ensured via the municipality model. The municipal administration can ensure 100%
recovery as they have the law enforcement departments and civil administration at their
disposal. Municipality model is an antidote to the political interference, as it would assign
responsibility of bill recovery to the very political leaders, who have otherwise interfered in
DISCOs’ administration decisions to their detriment. However, a strong local government
system is a pre-requisite for the implementation of this model.
o Cooperative Model
Cooperative model can be adopted especially in the rural areas. This model has been a huge
success in US and China. Under this model, the community members are given the ownership
of power distribution in their community, for which they have to collect bills among themselves
and pay back to the power suppliers. Therefore, make cooperatives in rural areas. It is
implemented in America where their rural distribution works on the model of cooperatives.
o Management model
Another model is the private management model. We can make a private board for each
DISCO. The board should consist of 20-25 members, which are experts from all the related
fields. In short, this model is analogous to the private business model in the public sector
organizations. They should decide the matters of the companies. This model is effective as not
only it will bring in expert management, but also the control of ministry would be reduced on
the affairs of DISCOs, as it would be difficult for the government to expel all the members of
the private boards as it does with the CEO of the DISCOs. A sample test of this model can be
tested and later applied to all the DISCOs.
14
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2336829/improving-power-discos-performance
15
https://nepra.org.pk/Standards/2021/PER%20DISCOs%202019-20%20updated.pdf
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
And comparative analysis of the financial loss caused by MEPCO, QESCO and PESCO to the
national exchequer is roughly 59% (calculations performed in the table 3).
Thus, larger geographical area is directly proportional to more T&D losses. Therefore, in order
to improve their efficiency (DISCOs with larger areas to supply power), they need to be divided
16
https://nepra.org.pk/Standards/2021/PER%20DISCOs%202019-20%20updated.pdf
17
NEPRA’s Performance Evaluation Report of Distribution Companies 2019-2020
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
into smaller units. High-loss DISCOs like PESCO, QESCO, and MEPCO may be initially
taken up for this task. The reason large service areas translate into more AT&C losses and poor
bill recovery is because of the larger distances between control centers and field offices and
operations. This weakens the control and oversight capacity of DISCOs’ administration. And
if the size of a DISCO’s service area is reduced, it becomes easier for the staff to manage the
power facilities and to exert control. Smaller DISCOs may require cheaper management and
smaller boards as well. T&D losses and other pilferages can be reduced due to closer control
and oversight. The other benefit of smaller DISCOs is that private companies find it easier to
manage because the risks of controlling far located regions are minimized. Thus, prospects of
privatization of DISCOs increase with the division of large DISCOs into smaller ones. In short,
there is indeed a strong case for dividing large geographical domains of DISCOs into two or
three parts.
b. Incentive schemes
A policy option in this regard is the introduction of performance incentives for bill collectors.
The more they collect bills, the more performance bonuses they will get. Not only will this
boost their collection efforts, but also hinder DISCOs’ staff collusion with the default
consumers.
This is probably the most innovative policy intervention. But unfortunately, none of the
DISCOs had taken it up so far. It attempts at gaining the trust of the community to pay their
bills. A community mobilization mechanism should be devised in a way that consumers are
charted into small community circles on the basis of their geographical connectivity. Among
these communities, local leaders should be identified. They should be incentivized to liaison
with the bill recovery staff of DISCOs. It would improve bill recovery because if your own
neighbor is coming to your doorsteps, it would be hard for you to avoid payment of bills.
This community mobilization was the key element behind the success of rural electrification
cooperatives in America18. These rural cooperatives were made up of communities of farmers,
who maintained the grid and collected bills. It not only brought their bill recovery up but also
led to rural grid expansion19. A simile model was also practiced in China, which proved to be
a success.
b. Smart Metering:
A drive for smart metering should be started by all the DISCOs, as it would help them improve
their recovery ratio. If a consumer is consuming electricity, but not paying the bill, DISCOs’
officials can disconnect the service by sitting in their offices. But for it, a smart meter should
be connected at the consumer’s place. Smart meters also have an inbuilt prepaid billing option.
That can also help improve the bill recovery.
18
https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Burgess-et-al-2019-Final-Report.pdf
19
https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Burgess-et-al-2019-Final-Report.pdf
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
Cost of electricity generation can be reduced by undertaking following reforms within the
contracts with IPPs and energy fuel mix:
a. Replace the dollar-indexed rate of return to IPPs with the one based on Pakistani
rupee.
b. A forensic audit of IPPs should be done to check on their excess profitability.20
c. The contracts with IPPs which are matured, should be discontinued.
d. In order to reduce reliance on imported fuel which are adding to the cost of
power generation, government needs to work on indigenous energy resources
such as Thar coal having the power generation potential of over 100 GW and
renewable energy with over 3,000 GW potential of power generation.21
5- Reducing Subsidies
a. The government should terminate subsidies on electricity and rather provide
direct cash transfers to low-income households.
Conclusion:
Circular debt is a major challenge for Pakistan's economy and energy sector. Addressing this
problem requires a comprehensive and integrated approach, including models for financial
turnaround of DISCOs, reforms in IPPs’ contracts, indigenization of fuel mix, and rolling back
of subsidies. The implementation of these policies will help to break the vicious cycle of
circular debt and ensure the sustainable growth of the energy sector and the economy.
20
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2199737/two-decades-flawed-policies-power-producers-make-billions-
pakistan
21
https://www.pbc.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/Towards-Pakistanu2019s-Energy-Security-and-
Competitiveness.pdf
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector
ACTION MATRIX
Reducing
Subsidies
Policy Brief Curbing the Growing Circular Debt in Pakistan’s Power Sector