Single 287967086580186410492
Single 287967086580186410492
Single 287967086580186410492
20 November 2020
Neutral
Alibaba Pictures 1060.HK, 1060 HK
Price (20 Nov 20): HK$1.04
Improving profitability despite revenue pressure,
▼ Price Target (Dec-21): HK$1.15
marketing going live Prior (Dec-21): HK$1.20
Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables.
2
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
3
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan. Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan.
Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan. Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan. Note: Segment results = Revenue - cost of sales and
services - allocated selling and marketing expenses.
4
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
5
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
Valuation
DCF-based Dec-21 PT of HK$1.15
Our Dec-21 price target of HK$1.15 is based on a DCF valuation that assumes an
equity risk premium of 7.0% and a risk-free rate of 4%. We also assume a beta of 1.3
and debt-to-capital ratio of 10%, which results in a WACC of 12.1%.
Fiscal Year End M-22 M-23 M-24 M-25 M-26 M-27 M-28 M-29 M-30
Cash flow s tarting date D-21 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20
Days left 90 820 1,186 1,551 1,916 2,281 2,647 3,012 3,377
Discount factor 0.25 2.25 3.25 4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25
Discount factor at WACC 1.03 1.29 1.45 1.62 1.82 2.04 2.29 2.57 2.88
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Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
Valuation
We use a DCF valuation methodology to derive the company’s fair value. Our Dec-
21 price target of HK$1.15 is based on a DCF valuation that assumes a market risk
premium of 7.0% and a risk-free rate of 4%. We also assume a beta of 1.3 and a
terminal growth rate of 3%, which results in a WACC of 12.1%.
Downside risks include: (1) box office uncertainty; (2) intensified competition in the
film ticket sales market; and (3) the implementation of restrictive government
regulations.
7
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
8
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
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Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to
Alibaba Pictures.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Alibaba Pictures.
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other than investment banking from Alibaba Pictures.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Alibaba Pictures, if any.
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Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK, 1060 HK) Price Chart Date Rating Price (HK$) Price Target
(HK$)
3
10-Aug-19 N 1.41 1.6
08-May-20 N 0.99 1.05
22-Sep-20 N 1.18 1.2
Price(HK$)
0
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov
17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Initiated coverage Aug 09, 2019. All share prices are as of market close on the previous business day.
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
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Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if
applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy
reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected
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does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P.
Morgan’s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Wei, Michelle: Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK), China Film - A (600977.SS), China Mobile (0941) (0941.HK), China
Telecom (0728) (0728.HK), China Tower (0788) (0788.HK), China Unicom - A (600050.SS), China Unicom - H (0762.HK), Chunghwa
Telecom Co., Ltd (2412.TW), Far EasTone Telecom (4904.TW), HKBN Ltd. (1310) (1310.HK), HKT Trust (6823) (6823.HK),
Hutchison Telecom HK (0215) (0215.HK), IMAX China (1970.HK), Maoyan Entertainment (1896.HK), PCCW Limited (0008)
(0008.HK), SmarTone (0315) (0315.HK), Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. (3045.TW), Wanda Film - A (002739.SZ), Zhejiang Huace Film &
TV Co. Ltd - A (300133.SZ)
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Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
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Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
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Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
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Completed 20 Nov 2020 11:18 PM HKT Disseminated 20 Nov 2020 11:26 PM HKT