Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                

Single 287967086580186410492

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 13

Asia Pacific Equity Research

20 November 2020

Neutral
Alibaba Pictures 1060.HK, 1060 HK
Price (20 Nov 20): HK$1.04
Improving profitability despite revenue pressure,
▼ Price Target (Dec-21): HK$1.15
marketing going live Prior (Dec-21): HK$1.20

Alibaba Pictures’ 1HFY21 (Apr20-Sep20) revenue was suppressed by a China


nationwide cinema shutdown before mid-July, but losses narrowed thanks to Entertainment
stringent cost control. The company recently launched a campaign to leverage
Michelle Wei, CFA AC
live broadcasting for online promotion and distribution, and targets operating
(852) 2800-8562
income breakeven in FY21. We tweak our Dec-21 PT from HK$1.20 to michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com
HK$1.15 and remain Neutral due to relatively demanding valuations. Bloomberg JPMA WEI <GO>
 1HFY21 revenue affected by cinema closure: Total revenue decreased J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
38% yoy, to Rmb927mn. Internet-based promotion and distribution (P&D) Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited
was the main drag (-68% yoy), as a nationwide theatre closure before mid- James R. Sullivan, CFA
July and a yoy decline in box office after reopening led to a drop in online (65) 6882-2374
ticketing revenue. Content production revenue grew nicely, by 87% yoy, on james.r.sullivan@jpmorgan.com
the back of increased sales of self-produced dramas to Youku. Integrated J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited/
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
development grew 40% yoy, decelerating from ~120% growth in FY20. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited
 Losses narrowed with stringent cost control: Gross margin came down
Alvin Au
22ppts yoy, to 38%, as the theatre shutdown led to a decline of high-margin (852) 2800-6073
online ticketing revenue. The S&M expense to revenue ratio came down to alvin.au@jpmorgan.com
7% from 44%/26% in 1HFY20/2HFY20 due partly to reduced ticket J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
subsidies and less marketing expenditure during the lockdown. Profit (gross Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited
profit minus allocable S&M expense) was Rmb285mn in 1HFY21 vs.
Key Changes (FYE Mar)
Rmb248mn in 1HFY20, as the turnaround of the content production
business offset weakness in online P&D. Net loss decreased to Rmb162mn Prev Cur
in 1HFY21 from Rmb390mn in 1HFY20 due mainly to S&M expense EPS (Basic) - 21E (Rmb) (0.00) 0.00
reduction. Management aims at operating income breakeven in FY21.
Style Exposure
 Content production business update: Movies: Alipics has released three
movies under Jincheng Collaboration Plan since 2018 (Peppa Celebrates Quant Current Hist %Rank (1=Top)
Chinese New Year, Love You Forever, Coffee or Tea?), and all are profit- Factors %Rank 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y
making. It plans to release 20 Jincheng movies, in which it is the lead Value 95 94 94 95 89
producer/distributor, in the next four years, and 13 are completed/under Growth 20 16 18 99 98
preparation. Dramas: Over the past three years, five dramas produced by Momentum 94 100 88 87 79
Alipics have been streamed, with another nine delivered and pending Quality 94 88 87 84 99
release. Nine projects are now under preparation. It targets delivering 10 Low Vol 54 51 60 51 98
dramas in FY21. ESGQ 83 95 11 14 8
 Online P&D with live broadcasting: Alipics recently launched an MCN
(Multi-Channel Network) project that leverages live broadcasting for P&D.
Partnerships have been formed with short video platforms such as Douyin,
Kuaishou and Taobao Live Broadcasting. Since commencement in June, it
has signed contracts with 178 KOLs, with over 300mn users registered.
Video view counts have exceeded 30bn.
 Management sees a low risk of cannibalization between theatres and
online streaming platforms. Blockbusters will go for theatrical release, and
small-budget comedies/classic movies can be released online. Alipics will
expand investment in web movies in the coming years.

Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.

www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation


Alibaba Pictures is a leading media platform in China
specializing in the movie ticketing business. Its flagship
product, the Taopiaopiao app, is the second-largest online
movie ticketing site in China. The company has three business
segments: (1) Internet-based promotion and distribution
(including ticketing); (2) content production; and (3)
integrated development. Internet-based promotion and
distribution is the key business segment, driving c80% of the
company’s revenue. Alipics is diversifying itself beyond
YTD 1m 3m 12m
ticketing by strengthening collaboration with various
Abs -24.1% -8.0% -5.5% -20.0% entertainment units within the Alibaba ecosystem. We
Rel -17.9% -15.7% -12.2% -18.4% appreciate the company’s distinctive strategy of being an
infrastructure service provider and its potentially remarkable
Company Data
growth in the IP derivative business, but are concerned about
Shares O/S (mn) 26,831 its stretched valuation and a lack of profit-making record.
52-week range (HK$) 1.48-0.89
Market cap ($ mn) 3,599 Maintain Neutral.
Exchange rate 7.75
Free float(%) 47.7% We use a DCF valuation methodology to derive the
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 36.24
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 5.3 company’s fair value. Our Dec-21 price target of HK$1.15 is
Volatility (90 Day) 41 based on a DCF valuation that assumes a market risk premium
Index HSI of 7.0% and a risk-free rate of 4%. We also assume a beta of
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL 1|2|0
1.3 and a terminal growth rate of 3%, which results in a
Key Metrics (FYE Mar) WACC of 12.1%.
Rmb in millions FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Financial Estimates Performance Drivers
Revenue 2,875 2,544 4,107 4,966
Adj. EBIT (981) (24) 426 732
Adj. EBITDA (864) 136 633 940
Adj. net income (1,049) 180 555 807
Adj. EPS (0.04) 0.01 0.02 0.03
BBG EPS (0.02) (0.00) 0.02 -
Cashflow from operations (776) 153 441 710
FCFF (816) 55 341 604
Margins and Growth
Revenue growth (5.2%) (11.5%) 61.5% 20.9%
EBIT margin (34.1%) (0.9%) 10.4% 14.7%
EBIT growth 97.4% (97.6%) (1896.6%) 71.6%
EBITDA margin (30.1%) 5.4% 15.4% 18.9%
EBITDA growth 149.2% (115.8%) 364.4% 48.5%
Net margin (36.5%) 7.1% 13.5% 16.3%
Adj. EPS growth 340.2% (116.9%) 208.0% 45.3%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate (2.6%) 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Interest cover 31.3 NM NM NM
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM NM
Net debt/EBITDA 4.2 NM NM NM
ROE (7.3%) 1.3% 3.9% 5.5%
Valuation
FCFF yield (3.5%) 0.2% 1.4% 2.5%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EV/Revenue 6.9 7.8 4.7 3.8
EV/EBITDA NM 145.3 30.7 20.0
Adj. P/E NM 131.5 42.7 29.4

Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables.
2
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Table 1: 1HFY21 results summary


Rmb mn FY1H19 FY2H19 FY1H20 FY2H20 FY1H21 yoy % hoh %
Apr18- Sep18 Oct18- Mar19 Apr19- Sep19 Oct19- Mar20 Apr20- Sep20
Total revenue 1,532 1,502 1,501 1,373 927 -38% -33%
yoy growth 29% -6% -2% -9% -38%
Content production 310 148 205 224 382 87% 70%
Internet-based promotion and distribution 1,172 1,291 1,180 1,024 381 -68% -63%
Integrated development 49 62 117 125 163 40% 30%
Cost of sales and services (739) (529) (603) (705) (576) -4% -18%
Gross profit 794 972 898 668 351 -61% -48%
yoy growth -10% -7% 13% -31% -61%
Gross margin 52% 65% 60% 49% 38% -22% -11%
Selling and marketing expenses (872) (708) (658) (358) (69) -89% -81%
Segment results (73) 307 248 337 285 15% -15%
yoy growth 54% 176% 441% 10% 15%
Content production (164) (57) (75) 73 66 NA -10%
Internet-based promotion and distribution 64 324 251 199 129 -48% -35%
Integrated development 28 39 72 64 89 24% 39%
Administrative and other expenses (345) (338) (576) (955) (478) -17% -50%
Operating income/(loss) (423) (74) (336) (645) (196) 42% 70%
yoy growth 0% 90% 21% -778% 42%
Adjusted EBITA (489) (110) (276) (446) (130) 53% 71%
yoy growth NA NA 44% -306% 53%
Net interest income/(expense) 262 (29) 95 37 40 -58% 8%
Other income/(expense) 16 (32) (154) (133) (14) -91% -90%
Profit before tax (146) (134) (396) (741) (170) 57% 77%
Tax (8) (7) (1) (28) 0 NA NA
Effective tax rate 5% 5% 0% 4% 0%
Non-controlling interests 29 13 6 9 8 29% -18%
Net profit (126) (128) (390) (760) (162) 58% 79%
yoy growth 67% 85% -211% -494% 58%
Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan.

3
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Figure 1: Revenue trend Figure 2: Gross profit trend

Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan. Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan.

Figure 3: Selling and marketing expense as % of revenue Figure 4: Segment results

Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan. Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan. Note: Segment results = Revenue - cost of sales and
services - allocated selling and marketing expenses.

4
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Table 2: Key forecasts and revisions


Rmb mn FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E
Total revenue Gross profit
Old 3,240 4,327 Old 1,912 2,726
New 2,544 4,107 New 1,183 2,588
Change (%) -21.5% -5.1% Change (%) -38.1% -5.1%
YOY growth (%) -New -11.5% 61.5% YOY growth (%) -New -24.5% 118.7%

Content production revenue Adjusted EBITDA


Old 908 1,209 Old 4 639
New 908 1,158 New 136 633
Change (%) 0.0% -4.3% Change (%) 3579.6% -0.9%
YOY growth (%) -New 111.6% 27.5% YOY growth (%) -New -115.8% 364.4%

Internet-based promotion and distribution revenue Adjusted EBITDA margin


Old 1,851 2,314 Old 0.1% 14.8%
New 1,300 2,211 New 5.4% 15.4%
Change (%) -29.8% -4.5% Change (%) 5.2% 0.6%
YOY growth (%) -New -41.0% 70.0% YOY growth (%) -New 35.4% 10.1%

Integrated development revenue Adjusted net profit


Old 481 803 Old 87 557
New 336 739 New 180 555
Change (%) -30.2% -8.0% Change (%) 106.6% -0.2%
YOY growth (%) -New 39.0% 120.0% YOY growth (%) -New NA 208.0%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 3: J.P. Morgan forecasts vs consensus


FY21E FY22E
Sales (RMB mn)
Consensus 3,046 4,297
J.P. Morgan 2,544 4,107
Difference -16.5% -4.4%
EBITDA (RMB mn)
Consensus 195 894
J.P. Morgan 136 633
Difference -30.1% -29.2%
EBITDA margin (%)
Consensus 6.4% 20.8%
J.P. Morgan 5.4% 15.4%
Difference -1.0% -5.4%
Net profit (RMB mn)
Consensus (44) 453
J.P. Morgan 180 555
Difference -513.0% 22.6%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates.

5
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Valuation
DCF-based Dec-21 PT of HK$1.15
Our Dec-21 price target of HK$1.15 is based on a DCF valuation that assumes an
equity risk premium of 7.0% and a risk-free rate of 4%. We also assume a beta of 1.3
and debt-to-capital ratio of 10%, which results in a WACC of 12.1%.

Table 4: Alibaba Pictures - DCF analysis


DCF Model FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30E
EBIT * (1-tax rate) 512 878 1,261 1,588 1,964 2,370 2,801 3,316 3,809
Depreciation & amortization 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Change in w orking capital (8) 11 (17) (9) (1) 10 (4) 5 15
Capital expenditure and investment (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50)
Free cas h flow s 504 889 1,244 1,578 1,963 2,379 2,797 3,321 3,824
% yoy grow th 76% 40% 27% 24% 21% 18% 19% 15%
Discounted FCF 490 688 858 971 1,078 1,165 1,222 1,294 1,329

Fiscal Year End M-22 M-23 M-24 M-25 M-26 M-27 M-28 M-29 M-30
Cash flow s tarting date D-21 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20 D-20
Days left 90 820 1,186 1,551 1,916 2,281 2,647 3,012 3,377
Discount factor 0.25 2.25 3.25 4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25
Discount factor at WACC 1.03 1.29 1.45 1.62 1.82 2.04 2.29 2.57 2.88

WACC As sumptions TV calculation 1-yr Fw d


2022-30 Cost of equity = 13.0% Terminal value grow th 3.0%
NPV of cash f low s 9,095 Cost of debt = 5.0% Implied TV exit mult. (X) 11.3
Perpetual grow th (%) 3.0% Tax rate = 25.0% Free cash flow s (FCF) 3,824
Im plied Exit FCF m ultiple (X) 11.0 Risk f ree rate = 4.0% FCF*exit mult 43,277
PV of terminal value 15,040 Beta = 1.3 Discount f actor at WACC 2.88
Enterprise value 24,134 Equity risk premium = 7.0% PV of terminal value 15,040
Terminal value as % of EV 62% Req equity market return = 11.0%
Net cash (debt) 3,892 Debt/capital = 10.0%
Equity value (Rm b m n) 28,026 Equity/capital = 90.0%
Equity value (Rm b/share) 1.04 WACC = 12.1%
CNYHKD 1.10
Equity value (HKD/share ) 1.15
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

6
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks


Alibaba Pictures (Neutral; Price Target: HK$1.15)
Investment Thesis
Alibaba Pictures is a leading media platform in China specializing in the movie
ticketing business. Its flagship product, the Taopiaopiao app, is the second-largest
online movie ticketing site in China. The company has three business segments:
(1) Internet-based promotion and distribution (including ticketing); (2) content
production; and (3) integrated development. Internet-based promotion and
distribution is the key business segment, driving c80% of the company’s revenue.
Alipics is diversifying itself beyond ticketing by strengthening collaboration with
various entertainment units within the Alibaba ecosystem. We appreciate the
company’s distinctive strategy of being an infrastructure service provider and its
potentially remarkable growth in the IP derivative business, but are concerned about
its stretched valuation and a lack of profit-making record. Maintain Neutral.

Valuation
We use a DCF valuation methodology to derive the company’s fair value. Our Dec-
21 price target of HK$1.15 is based on a DCF valuation that assumes a market risk
premium of 7.0% and a risk-free rate of 4%. We also assume a beta of 1.3 and a
terminal growth rate of 3%, which results in a WACC of 12.1%.

Risks to Rating and Price Target


Upside risks to our rating and price target include: (1) box office beating
expectations; (2) online penetration rate of movie ticket purchasing rising faster than
expectations; and (3) IP derivative business growing faster than expectations.

Downside risks include: (1) box office uncertainty; (2) intensified competition in the
film ticket sales market; and (3) the implementation of restrictive government
regulations.

7
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Alibaba Pictures: Summary of Financials


Income Statement FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Cash Flow Statement FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Revenue 3,034 2,875 2,544 4,107 4,966 Cash flow from operating activities (1,377) (776) 153 441 710
COGS (1,268) (1,308) (1,361) (1,520) (1,738) o/w Depreciation & amortization 95 125 50 50 50
Gross profit 1,766 1,567 1,183 2,588 3,228 o/w Changes in working capital (845) (665) 228 (8) 11
SG&A (2,476) (2,548) (1,202) (2,341) (2,696)
Adj. EBITDA (347) (864) 136 633 940 Cash flow from investing activities 1,090 1,665 (42) (42) (43)
D&A (95) 0 (5) (50) (50) o/w Capital expenditure (59) (12) (50) (50) (50)
Adj. EBIT (497) (981) (24) 426 732 as % of sales 1.9% 0.4% 2.0% 1.2% 1.0%
Net Interest 66 28 60 62 70
Adj. PBT (281) (1,137) 32 499 811 Cash flow from financing activities 1,765 (420) 0 0 0
Tax (15) (29) (6) (100) (162) o/w Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0
Minority Interest 42 15 16 17 18 o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) 1,090 0 0 0 0
Adj. Net Income (241) (1,049) 180 555 807 o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) 691 (392) 0 0 0
Reported EPS (0.01) (0.04) 0.00 0.02 0.02 Net change in cash 1,478 469 111 399 667
Adj. EPS (0.01) (0.04) 0.01 0.02 0.03
Adj. Free cash flow to firm (1,505) (816) 55 341 604
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 y/y Growth (5592.3%) (45.8%) (106.7%) 521.3% 76.9%
Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Shares outstanding 26,629 26,328 26,849 26,849 26,849
Balance Sheet FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Ratio Analysis FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Cash and cash equivalents 3,341 4,005 4,116 4,515 5,182 Gross margin 58.2% 54.5% 46.5% 63.0% 65.0%
Accounts receivable 1,825 1,661 1,744 1,832 1,923 EBITDA margin (11.4%) (30.1%) 5.4% 15.4% 18.9%
Inventories 1 0 0 0 0 EBIT margin (16.4%) (34.1%) (0.9%) 10.4% 14.7%
Other current assets 2,370 2,026 2,096 2,171 2,251 Net profit margin (7.9%) (36.5%) 7.1% 13.5% 16.3%
Current assets 7,537 7,692 7,957 8,518 9,356
PP&E 201 74 119 119 119 ROE (1.7%) (7.3%) 1.3% 3.9% 5.5%
LT investments - - - - - ROA (1.5%) (6.5%) 1.1% 3.4% 4.7%
Other non current assets 8,880 8,083 8,100 8,100 8,100 ROCE (3.5%) (6.7%) (0.1%) 2.3% 3.9%
Total assets 16,618 15,848 16,176 16,737 17,575 SG&A/Sales 81.6% 88.6% 47.2% 57.0% 54.3%
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM NM NM
Short term borrowings 5 10 394 394 394 Net debt/EBITDA 7.6 4.2 NM NM NM
Payables 832 964 1,353 1,515 1,705
Other short term liabilities 63 168 36 36 36 Sales/Assets (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Current liabilities 900 1,142 1,783 1,946 2,135 Assets/Equity (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
Long-term debt 712 384 0 0 0 Interest cover (x) 5.3 31.3 NM NM NM
Other long term liabilities 53 345 345 345 345 Operating leverage (1284273.1%) (1857.4%) 847.8% (3086.1%) 342.5%
Total liabilities 1,666 1,871 2,129 2,291 2,481 Tax rate (5.4%) (2.6%) 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Shareholders' equity 14,856 13,898 13,985 14,400 15,067 Revenue y/y Growth 9.3% (5.2%) (11.5%) 61.5% 20.9%
Minority interests 96 78 62 45 28 EBITDA y/y Growth 267378.6% 149.2% (115.8%) 364.4% 48.5%
Total liabilities & equity 16,618 15,848 16,176 16,737 17,575 EPS y/y Growth - 340.2% (116.9%) 208.0% 45.3%
BVPS 0.56 0.53 0.52 0.54 0.56 Valuation FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
y/y Growth 1.7% (5.4%) (1.3%) 3.0% 4.6% P/E (x) NM NM 131.5 42.7 29.4
P/BV (x) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Net debt/(cash) (2,624) (3,610) (3,721) (4,120) (4,788) EV/EBITDA (x) NM NM 145.3 30.7 20.0
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: Rmb in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Mar. o/w - out of which

8
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research
Analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document
individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect the Research Analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and
(2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed by the Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if
applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that the Research Analyst’s analysis was made in good faith and that the views
reflect the Research Analyst’s own opinion, without undue influence or intervention.
All authors named within this report are Research Analysts unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading)
may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.

Important Disclosures

 Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to
Alibaba Pictures.
 Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Alibaba Pictures.
 Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
entity(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Alibaba Pictures.
 Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from Alibaba Pictures.
 Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Alibaba Pictures, if any.
Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for
compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies by visiting https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-
0406, or e-mailing research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com with your request. J.P. Morgan’s Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative
Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477-
0406 or e-mail research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com.

Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK, 1060 HK) Price Chart Date Rating Price (HK$) Price Target
(HK$)
3
10-Aug-19 N 1.41 1.6
08-May-20 N 0.99 1.05
22-Sep-20 N 1.18 1.2

2 N HK$1.6 N HK$1.05 N HK$1.2

Price(HK$)

0
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov
17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Initiated coverage Aug 09, 2019. All share prices are as of market close on the previous business day.

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the

9
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if
applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy
reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected
total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it
does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P.
Morgan’s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Wei, Michelle: Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK), China Film - A (600977.SS), China Mobile (0941) (0941.HK), China
Telecom (0728) (0728.HK), China Tower (0788) (0788.HK), China Unicom - A (600050.SS), China Unicom - H (0762.HK), Chunghwa
Telecom Co., Ltd (2412.TW), Far EasTone Telecom (4904.TW), HKBN Ltd. (1310) (1310.HK), HKT Trust (6823) (6823.HK),
Hutchison Telecom HK (0215) (0215.HK), IMAX China (1970.HK), Maoyan Entertainment (1896.HK), PCCW Limited (0008)
(0008.HK), SmarTone (0315) (0315.HK), Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. (3045.TW), Wanda Film - A (002739.SZ), Zhejiang Huace Film &
TV Co. Ltd - A (300133.SZ)

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of October 10, 2020


Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 47% 39% 14%
IB clients* 52% 49% 37%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage 46% 40% 14%
IB clients* 75% 70% 55%
*Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided investment banking services
within the previous 12 months. Please note that the percentages might not add to 100% because of rounding.
For purposes only of FINRA ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating
category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.
This information is current as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter.

Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered
companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com, contact the primary analyst
or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com. For material information about the proprietary
models used, please see the Summary of Financials in company-specific research reports and the Company Tearsheets, which are
available to download on the company pages of our client website, http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com. This report also sets out within it
the material underlying assumptions used.
Analysts' Compensation: The research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various
factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.
Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US
affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, may not be registered as research analysts under FINRA rules, may not be associated persons of
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or 2242 restrictions on communications with covered
companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Other Disclosures
J.P. Morgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries and affiliates
worldwide.

All research material made available to clients are simultaneously available on our client website, J.P. Morgan Markets, unless
specifically permitted by relevant laws. Not all research content is redistributed, e-mailed or made available to third-party aggregators.
For all research material available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative.
Any long form nomenclature for references to China; Hong Kong; Taiwan; and Macau within this research material are Mainland China;
Hong Kong SAR, China; Taiwan, China; and Macau SAR, China.

Options and Futures related research: If the information contained herein regards options- or futures-related research, such information
is available only to persons who have received the proper options or futures risk disclosure documents. Please contact your J.P. Morgan
Representative or visit https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf for a copy of the Option Clearing Corporation's

10
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options or


http://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/Security_Futures_Risk_Disclosure_Statement_2018.pdf for a copy of the Security Futures Risk
Disclosure Statement.
Changes to Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and other benchmark rates: Certain interest rate benchmarks are, or may in the future
become, subject to ongoing international, national and other regulatory guidance, reform and proposals for reform. For more information,
please consult: https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/disclosures/interbank_offered_rates
Private Bank Clients: Where you are receiving research as a client of the private banking businesses offered by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
and its subsidiaries (“J.P. Morgan Private Bank”), research is provided to you by J.P. Morgan Private Bank and not by any other division
of J.P. Morgan, including, but not limited to, the J.P. Morgan Corporate and Investment Bank and its Global Research division.
Legal entity responsible for the production and distribution of research: The legal entity identified below the name of the Reg AC
Research Analyst who authored this material is the legal entity responsible for the production of this research. Where multiple Reg AC
Research Analysts authored this material with different legal entities identified below their names, these legal entities are jointly
responsible for the production of this research. Research Analysts from various J.P. Morgan affiliates may have contributed to the
production of this material but may not be licensed to carry out regulated activities in your jurisdiction (and do not hold themselves out as
being able to do so). Unless otherwise stated below, this material has been distributed by the legal entity responsible for production. If you
have any queries, please contact the relevant Research Analyst in your jurisdiction or the entity in your jurisdiction that has distributed
this research material.
Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures:
Argentina: JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A Sucursal Buenos Aires is regulated by Banco Central de la República Argentina (“BCRA”-
Central Bank of Argentina) and Comisión Nacional de Valores (“CNV”- Argentinian Securities Commission” - ALYC y AN Integral
N°51). Australia: J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (“JPMSAL”) (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is regulated
by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-
X. This material is issued and distributed in Australia by or on behalf of JPMSAL only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in section 761G
of the Corporations Act 2001). A list of all financial products covered can be found by visiting
https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures. J.P. Morgan seeks to cover companies of relevance to the domestic and international
investor base across all Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors, as well as across a range of market capitalisation sizes. If
applicable, in the course of conducting public side due diligence on the subject company(ies), the Research Analyst team may at times
perform such diligence through corporate engagements such as site visits, discussions with company representatives, management
presentations, etc. Research issued by JPMSAL has been prepared in accordance with J.P. Morgan Australia’s Research Independence
Policy which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan Australia - Research Independence Policy. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Ombudsman J.P. Morgan: 0800-7700847
/ ouvidoria.jp.morgan@jpmorgan.com. Canada: J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. is a registered investment dealer, regulated by the
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Ontario Securities Commission and is the participating member on
Canadian exchanges. This material is distributed in Canada by or on behalf of J.P.Morgan Securities Canada Inc. China: J.P. Morgan
Securities (China) Company Limited has been approved by CSRC to conduct the securities investment consultancy business. Dubai:
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is
Dubai International Financial Centre - The Gate, West Wing, Level 3 and 9 PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. This material has been
distributed to persons regarded as professional clients or market counterparties as defined under the DFSA rules. Germany: This material
is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities plc, Frankfurt Branch, which is regulated by the Bundesanstalt für
Finanzdienstleistungsaufsich and also by J.P. Morgan AG (“JPM AG”), which is a member of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, is
authorised by the European Central Bank (“ECB”) and is regulated by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), JPM AG is a
company incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with a registered office at Taunustor 1, 60310 Frankfurt am Main, the Federal
Republic of Germany. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong
Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong, and J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited (CE
number AAB027) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong is
organized under the laws of the United States with limited liability. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited (Corporate Identity Number
- U67120MH1992FTC068724), having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz - East, Mumbai –
400098, is registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a ‘Research Analyst’ having registration number
INH000001873. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited is also registered with SEBI as a member of the National Stock Exchange of India
Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number – INZ000239730) and as a Merchant Banker (SEBI
Registration Number - MB/INM000002970). Telephone: 91-22-6157 3000, Facsimile: 91-22-6157 3990 and Website: www.jpmipl.com.
For non-local research material, this material is not distributed in India by J.P. Morgan India Private Limited. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan
Sekuritas Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the OJK a.k.a. BAPEPAM LK. Korea: This
material is issued and distributed in Korea by or through J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch, which is a member of
the Korea Exchange (KRX) and is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS).
Japan: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Tokyo Branch are regulated by the Financial Services
Agency in Japan. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X),

11
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and holds a Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities
Commission in Malaysia. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.and J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero are members of the
Mexican Stock Exchange and are authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission.
New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial
Advisers Act 2008). JPMSAL is registered as a Financial Service Provider under the Financial Service providers (Registration and
Dispute Resolution) Act of 2008. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and
regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a Trading
Participant of the Philippine Stock Exchange and a member of the Securities Clearing Corporation of the Philippines and the Securities
Investor Protection Fund. It is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Russia: CB J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC is
regulated by the Central Bank of Russia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by or through J.P. Morgan
Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MCI (P) 018/04/2020 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R], which is a member of the
Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited, and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) [MCI (P)
052/09/2020], both of which are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material is issued and distributed in Singapore
only to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors, as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap.
289 (SFA). This material is not intended to be issued or distributed to any retail investors or any other investors that do not fall into the
classes of “accredited investors,” “expert investors” or “institutional investors,” as defined under Section 4A of the SFA. Recipients of
this material in Singapore are to contact JPMSS or JPMCB Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the
material. As at the date of this material, JPMSS is a designated market maker for certain structured warrants listed on the Singapore
Exchange where the underlying securities may be the securities discussed in this material. Arising from its role as a designated market
maker for such structured warrants, JPMSS may conduct hedging activities in respect of such underlying securities and hold or have an
interest in such underlying securities as a result. The updated list of structured warrants for which JPMSS acts as designated market maker
may be found on the website of the Singapore Exchange Limited: http://www.sgx.com. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa
Proprietary Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Board. Taiwan: J.P.
Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan
Securities and Futures Bureau. Material relating to equity securities is issued and distributed in Taiwan by J.P. Morgan Securities
(Taiwan) Limited, subject to the license scope and the applicable laws and the regulations in Taiwan. According to Paragraph 2, Article 7-
1 of Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers (as amended or
supplemented) and/or other applicable laws or regulations, please note that the recipient of this material is not permitted to engage in any
activities in connection with the material that may give rise to conflicts of interests, unless otherwise disclosed in the “Important
Disclosures” in this material. Thailand: This material is issued and distributed in Thailand by JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Ltd., which
is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission,
and its registered address is 3rd Floor, 20 North Sathorn Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500. UK and European Economic Area
(EEA): J.P. Morgan Securities plc (“JPMS plc”) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised by the Prudential
Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered in England &
Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 25 Bank Street, London, E14 5JP. Unless specified to the contrary, material is distributed in the
UK and the EEA by JPMS plc. This material is directed in the UK only to: (a) persons having professional experience in matters relating
to investments falling within article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) (Order) 2005 (“the
FPO”); (b) persons outlined in article 49 of the FPO (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations or partnerships, the trustees
of high value trusts, etc.); or (c) any persons to whom this communication may otherwise lawfully be made; all such persons being
referred to as "relevant persons". This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment
or investment activity to which this material relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant
persons. Research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc's policy for prevention and avoidance of conflicts
of interest related to the production of Research which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan EMEA - Research Independence
Policy. U.S.: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”) is a member of the NYSE, FINRA, SIPC, and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
is a member of the FDIC. Material published by non-U.S. affiliates is distributed in the U.S. by JPMS who accepts responsibility for its
content.
General: Additional information is available upon request. The information in this material has been obtained from sources believed to be
reliable. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this material are accurate and that the forecasts,
opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable, JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries
(collectively J.P. Morgan) make no representations or warranties whatsoever to the completeness or accuracy of the material provided,
except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and the Research Analyst's involvement with the issuer that is the subject of
the material. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this
material. Any data discrepancies in this material could be the result of different calculations and/or adjustments. J.P. Morgan accepts no
liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this material or its contents, and neither J.P. Morgan nor any of its respective
directors, officers or employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents hereof, apart from the liabilities and responsibilities that
may be imposed on them by the relevant regulatory authority in the jurisdiction in question, or the regulatory regime thereunder.
Opinions, forecasts or projections contained in this material represent J.P. Morgan's current opinions or judgment as of the date of the
material only and are therefore subject to change without notice. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on
company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. There can be no

12
Michelle Wei, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(852) 2800-8562 20 November 2020
michelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.com

assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or projections, which represent only one
possible outcome. Furthermore, such opinions, forecasts or projections are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that have
not been verified, and future actual results or events could differ materially. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to in
this material may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. All pricing is indicative as of the close of market for the
securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Accordingly, investors may receive back
less than originally invested. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not
intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipients of this
material must make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein and should seek
advice from such independent financial, legal, tax or other adviser as they deem necessary. J.P. Morgan may trade as a principal on the
basis of the Research Analysts’ views and research, and it may also engage in transactions for its own account or for its clients’ accounts
in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this material, and J.P. Morgan is under no obligation to ensure that such other
communication is brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Others within J.P. Morgan, including Strategists, Sales staff
and other Research Analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this material. Employees of J.P. Morgan not
involved in the preparation of this material may have investments in the securities (or derivatives of such securities) mentioned in this
material and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this material.
"Other Disclosures" last revised October 10, 2020.
Copyright 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P

13
Completed 20 Nov 2020 11:18 PM HKT Disseminated 20 Nov 2020 11:26 PM HKT

You might also like