Terrorism: Globalization and Escalation

Terrorism is a difficult concept to define but can be described as the unlawful

coercion of persons or governments to effect a social, religious or political
change (LeVine, 2001; Kydd and Walter, 2006; Moore, 2014).

The UN considers all war crimes as terrorism (Levine, 2001). By this

consideration, almost every government in the world, especially military powers
in major Islamic nations, Israel and Pakistan are guilty of the same (LeVine,
2001).

In the last decade, global terrorism has increased by more than 450% (Alfa-
Wali, Sritharan, Mehes, Abdullah, Rasheed, 2014). This astronomical increase
is greatly associated with conflicts in South Asia and Middle East regions (Alfa-
Wali et al. 2014).

Modern day terrorism comprises extremely theatrical and symbolic violent acts
by organized groups with perceived political, social or religious grievances
(Zalman, 2017).

Terrorism: Origins and Causes

Terrorism is as old as humanity’s ability in utilizing violence to affect politics

(Zalman, 2017). The word terrorism originates from the Reign of Terror
instituted by the French government in 1793 (LeVine, 2001; Zalman, 2017).

In the 1940s, to ensure survival of Saudi royal family, the United States entered
into alliance with Saudi Arabia in exchange for cheap oil (LeVine, 2001).The
oil revenues received by Saudi Arabia returned to the United States in form of
arm purchases (LeVine, 2001). The resulting petrodollar –arms cycle ensured
that oil revenues remained in the hands of corrupt leaders and beyond the reach
of common citizens of that region (LeVine, 2001).

The United States has sold or given away weapons worth billions of dollars to
almost every nation on earth; the same goes for the former Soviet Union
(LeVine, 2001). Infact, there is no way terrorist groups would have survived
without support from the western world (LeVine, 2001).

A substantial amount of literature postulates that aggression is precipitated by

deprivation and frustration (Lai and Larsen, nd). The widespread notion that
poverty is the root cause of terrorism is consistent with results of existing
literature on conflicts (Abadie, 2004; Campos and Gassebner, 2009). Adverse
economic conditions are strong predictors of conflict and terrorism is a
manifestation of conflict (Abadie, 2004).

The inability to bridge the gap between expectations and actual realizations
increases the likelihood of rebellious and violent acts (Lai and Larsen, nd).

Empirical studies in 2003/2004 using US State Department data on international

terrorist attacks found no evidence that poverty was the major factor behind
terrorism (Abadie, 2004). However the US State Department data covers only
international terrorist attacks which constitute a tiny fraction of terrorist events
and appears to stem from perceived grievances against wealthy countries
(Abadie, 2004).

Rich countries are predominantly prone to international terrorism as terrorist

attacks levelled on them appear to gain global publicity (Abadie, 2004).

It has also been suggested that a country’s geographical and physical

characteristics such as wide jungle cover, higher elevation levels and larger
surface area increases the risk of terrorism, the reason being that terrorists
would need hiding places (Sandler, 2009).
The results of statistical analyses show that a country’s level of political
freedom could be a motivator for terrorism, for example countries that are more
prone to terrorism have an intermediate level of political freedom while those
with high levels of political freedom or authoritative regimes appear to be less
prone to terrorism (Sandler, 2009; Campos and Gassebner, 2009).

The summarized finding is that political issues rather than poverty are the main
drivers of terrorism (Sandler, 2009).

Terrorism Trends: 1960 -1999

In the late 1960s, international terrorism became a major issue with aircraft
hijacking as a favourite tactic (Zalman, 2017).

An El Al passenger flight 426 enroute Rome from London was hijacked in 1968
by members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine because it was
believed that the Israeli ambassador to the United States was on board (Zalman,
2017).

Kidnapping, armed assault and suicide attacks were also becoming popular
(Kydd and Walter, 2006).

During the 1972 Munich Olympics, members of a Palestinian terrorist group

dubbed Black September kidnapped and killed some Israeli athletes, in a bid to
bring international attention to their cause which was to secure the release of
236 Palestinian prisoners (Zalman, 2017).

Terrorism Trends: 2000 -2015

Today’s most alarming terrorist threat is religiously (Islamically) motivated

(Spector, 2015; Zalman, 2017). Koranic verses, jihad doctrines and events in
Islamic history have been cited by critics as proof that Islam is the main driver
of Islamic extremism and terrorism (Esposito, 2015).

Boko Haram, Al Qaeda, ISIL, Taliban are some of the Islamic terrorist groups
that come to mind first (Zalman, 2017).

Members of these groups are not just regular Islamic religion believers but
extremist who manipulate religious doctrines for selfish purposes (Zalman,
2017). Bombs, beards and backpacks are known common characteristics of the
terror peddlers (Spector, 2015).

Between 2000 and 2015, 57% of terrorism related deaths occurred in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Nigeria and Pakistan, with 30% of these recorded in Iraq alone
(Global Terrorism Index, 2016).

At least 31,000 people are believed to have travelled to Iraq and Syria to join
various extremist groups (Global Terrorism Index, 2016).

Foreign recruits appear to join on personal convictions; the main reason being a
perception of isolation and difficulty in adjusting to a “western” culture (Global
Terrorism Index, 2016). Western experts, Muslim extremists and observers all
speak of an apparent culture clash in Muslim-West relations (Esposito, 2015).

Although there is a wide age range of recruits from the oldest in their 70s to the
youngest just below 15 , the average ISIL recruit is male, in his mid-20s,
apparently educated but with a relatively low level Islamic knowledge (Global
Terrorism Index, 2016).

Currently, there are four most deadly Islamic terrorist groups today, namely:

-ISIL

-Boko Haram
 -Taliban

-AL Qaeda (Global Terrorism Index, 2016).

There is little evidence to suggest a central or linked organization between these

groups (Spector, 2015). The apparent connection they seem to have comes from
sharing similar inspirations and ideas (Spector, 2015).

Their activities and modus operandi are summarized below:

Group/ Incidents Deaths Injuries Annual Funding Modus Attack

Year Revenue Sources Operandi Locations
formed

ISIL 953 6141 6208 US$2b Oil Bombings Bahrain,

(aka smuggling, France, Iraq,
ISIS) Tax, Lebanon,
Antiquities, Jordan, Syria,
2014 Drugs, Turkey,
External Tunisia,
donations Somalia,
Jordan,
Palestine,
Saudi.

Boko 491 5478 3376 US$25M Kidnapping, Bombings Nigeria, Chad,

Haram Bank Niger, Burkina
robberies, Faso
2009
 Illegal
mining,
External
donations

Taliban 1094 4502 4685 US$400M Narcotics Bombings, Afghanistan

smuggling, Armed
1994 Tax, assault
Extortion,
External
donations

Al 368 1620 969 US$150M Crime Air Algeria, USA,

Qaeda franchises, strikes, Bangladesh,
Kidnapping, Bombings, France, Kenya,
1988 External Armed Lebanon, Mali,
donations assault Pakistan, Syria,
Somalia,
Yemen
Uganda, UK

Synopsis of Major Islamic Terrorist Groups (Global Terrorism Index, 2016)

Terrorism Strategies and Goals

While ISIL and Boko Haram seek to establish Islamic states in their various
jurisdictions, Al Qaeda strives for international jihad; Taliban aims to
destabilize governments by targeting federal institutions such as the police
(Global Terrorism Index, 2016).

Blowing up buses and trains, kidnapping individuals and hijacking planes might
appear irrational and sinister but they have been the tactics for which terrorists
have recorded tremendous success in their political aims between 1980 and
2003(Kydd and Walter, 2006). Terrorism works not because fear has been
instilled but because the responses promotes the terrorists’ cause (Kydd and
Walter, 2006).

Following the 1983 suicide attack on the US Marine barracks in Beirut, the
United States needed no further convincing before withdrawing its soldiers from
Lebanon (Kydd and Walter, 2006). A repeat performance by the US took place
in Saudi Arabia, two years after the September 11, 2001 attack (Kydd and
Walter, 2006).

Conclusion

An accurate analysis of modern day terrorism patterns faces great challenges,

possibly due to inaccurate and unreliable data (Cordesman, 2017).

The challenges become even greater when controversial issues linking Islam,
extremism and terrorism are the subject of analysis (Cordesman, 2017).
It is very easy for non-Muslim analysts to focus on extremists who constitute a
small fraction of the Muslim population, thereby demonizing one of the world’s
major religions (Cordesman, 2017).

Again, it is also easy to avoid addressing the apparently evident links between
Islam, extremism and terrorism, in order to avoid provocation or to appear
politically correct (Cordesman, 2017).

Islam extremism and terrorism will continue to pose a threat to the United
States and the rest of the world for a long time to come (Cronin, 2006).

Like war, terrorism never really ends but the individual actors and groups may
rise and fall (Cronin, 2006).

The assumption by the United States that eliminating Al Qaeda leaders once and
for all would bring terrorism to an end has been faulted by experts who argue
that Al Qaeda is a target in motion that has changed its shape and form
numerous times (Cronin, 2006).

Violence will probably never be the answer to stopping terrorism (LeVine,

2001). A peek at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be needed to understand
that violence does not address the grievances which are the motivation factors in
the first place (LeVine, 2001).
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