Statistical Tools For Process Validation
Statistical Tools For Process Validation
Statistical Tools For Process Validation
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
PROCESS VALIDATION –
STATISTICAL TOOL
OVERVIEW
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
102.5
Individual Value
97.5
Graph your data!! 95.0
1
3
ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
1200
100
98
1100
96
1000
700
92
1 6 12 18 4
Sorted Loc
10 16 2 8 14 20
20 Press Side L R L R L R
25 15
106
20 10
104
Frequency
15 5 102
100
CU (%LC)
10 0 98
900 975 1050 1125 1200
weight
96
5
94
92
0 Loc 12 34 5 67 8 9101112131415161718190 12 34 5 67 89101112131415161718190 12 3 45 6 78 910111213141516171819 0 12 3 45 67 8 9101112131415161718190 123 4 56 78 910111213141516171819 0 123 45 6 78 910111213141516171819 0
2 2 2 2 2 2
94 96 98 100 102 104
Press Side L R L R L R
CU (%LC)
Batch 1 2 3
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
0.20
0.15
Density
0.10
0.05
0.00
95.0 97.5 100.0 102.5 105.0 107.5
X
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
20
15
• Unimodal
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
16
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Mean
Median
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
• Stage 2 Planning
• Sample Size (intra-batch)
• Quantitative attribute: statistical interval within specs,
given assumptions from Stage 1
• Qualitative attribute: statistical interval for probability of
non-conformance – tie to routine AQL
• ASTM (CU), ANSI with routine AQL as RQL or
tightened/higher level than routine
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Key Messages
• The most critical assumptions for valid statistical
analyses are randomness, independence, and
representativeness.
• Normality is not as important as the data being
unimodal, symmetrical (or close to), and
continuous (not “chunky”).
• Lack of apparent Normality is often a hint that there is a lack of
randomness or independence
• Graph your data
• To check assumptions
• To see what you expect statistical analyses to show
• To look for unexpected responses, relationships, etc.
• When using statistical intervals to make decisions,
understand the impact of sample size, variability, and
confidence level on the width (i.e., uncertainty) – and
what confidence really means
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Acceptance Sampling
• The process of selecting a representative part of a larger
quantity for inspection or analysis to determine if the larger
quantity can be approved as acceptable.1
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Acceptance Sampling
• Two types of data
• Attribute - each result is Pass/Fail, qualitative
• Variable - each result is numerical, quantitative
• Attribute: Characteristic or property of an item
– Glass vial (cracked, not cracked)
– Cap color (correct, incorrect)
– Printing on box (legible, Illegible)
• Variable: Numerical measurement
– Dimensions of a component
– Injection force for a device
Acceptance Sampling
5 things to know about a sampling plan
• Lot size
• Sample size
• AQL – acceptance quality limit
• RQL – rejectable quality limit, also LTPD or lot tolerance
percent defective
• Acceptance number
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
DECISION:
Accept lot
Type II Error
() – 10%
Reject lot
Type I Error
() – 5%
Supplier’s
risk
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
High probability
means lots will
0.8
typically be found
Steepness of the
Prob. of Acceptance (Pa)
acceptable.
curve indicates the
0.6
discrimination
sampling plan.
0.4
Low probability
means lots will
0.2
typically be found
unacceptable.
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Percent Defective
0.8 N, acc #
P
13;0
r 0.7
o 50;1
b 0.6 80;2
125;3
o 0.5
200;5
f
315;7
0.4
A 500;10
c 0.3 800;14
c 1250;21
0.2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
• Need 3 Values
– AQL (selected from choices above)
• Percent Nonconforming
– Batch Size Being Inspected
– General Inspection Level
• Typically use Level II
• Determine sample size code letter
• Table I
• Determine Sample Size / AC
• Single sampling plan
• Normal Inspection
• Table IIA
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Statistical Conclusions
• Sample plan: sample 315, Reject if 6 or more defectives
observed
• AQL = 0.65%
• P(X≥6|N=315 and p=0.0065) = 1.8%
• The Producers risk that a batch with an acceptable quality (worst
tolerable) will be rejected is 1.8%. False Reject rate is 1.8%
• P(X<6|N=315 and p=0.0331) = 5.0%
• The Consumers risk is that “poor” quality batches will be
accepted is 5% for p =0.0331. False Accept rate is 5% for p =
0.0331
• OC curve will visually show this for ALL p’s
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Key Messages
• Sampling carries risks – understand what it is and be able to
justify it in the sampling plan
• AQLs and RQLs should be chosen according to risk to
patient, GMP compliance (customer complaints)
• Sampling plans should not
– be the same throughout the lifecycle
– chosen blindly from ANSI / ISO tables
• Sampling plans should
– be linked to risk management
– evolve through the lifecycle
– evaluated and chosen based on their operating
charateristics
Questions?
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Control Charts
• Statistical methodology to graphically monitor results, and
ensure that process is stable and in statistical control
Control Charts
• Graphically monitor process against pre-established limits
• Ensure process is stable and in statistical control
– Only common cause variation
• Quickly detect special cause variation
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Control Charts
Control Chart displaying only Common
Cause Variation
Control Chart displaying Special
Avg Dissolution Cause Variation
104 UCL=104.04
Avg Dissolution
102
104 UCL=104.04
100 102
_
X=98.47 100
98
_
X=98.47
98
96
96
94
LCL=92.90 94 55
5
92 5 LCL=92.90
5
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 92 1 1
Batch 1
90
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41
Batch
Control Charts
• Data can be continuous or discrete
• Continuous – assay, dissolution, tablet weight
• Discrete – number of defects, proportion
defective
• Not all control charts apply to all types of data
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
1.5
1.0
Correct
0.5 X=0.469
0.0
-0.5
chart
C Chart of Number of Defects per Month
1.5
Common 1.0
mistake 0.5
_
C=0.469
0.0 LCL=0
Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14
Month
25
20
15
I Chart
10 Number of Broken Tablets
30
29
5
25
0
12 15 18 21 24 27
20 20
Good Enough 15
11
10
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Batch
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
I Chart of Assay
105
UCL=104.45
104
103
102
101
_
100 X=100.19
99
I Chart of Assay
98 103
UCL=102.7
97
96 102
LCL=95.93
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
Batch 101
_
X=100.3
100
99
98 LCL=97.9
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37
Batches
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
105 2
2 I Chart of Result
100 _
X=98.04 115
UCL=113.64
95
110
90 Tested on 14/07/15
2
105
85
LCL=82.44
80 100 _
X=98.04
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
1/ 2/ 4/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 95
/0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0
01 05 28 11 11 29 17 17 14 16
Date Tested 90
85
LCL=82.44
80
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Batch
Key Messages
• Process not always truly stable
• Shift up or down with raw material batches
• Successive batch results are not always
independent
• Testing performed in groups
• Batches manufactured in campaigns
• Data not always normal
• CQA truly non-normal or is there an outlier?
• Response to signal should be risk based
• Signal should trigger response, but commensurate with
risk to patient, process, compliance
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Questions?
Process Capability
• Process Capability is a measure of a process’ ability to
meet expectations. This is typically expressed in the
form of an Index, usually Cpk or Ppk.
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Process Capability
• Expectations are typically specifications, but may be ANY set of
limits deemed important by the business.
• Process Capability is intended to describe what the process is
expected TO DO, not what it did.
• Process capability < 1 can be expected to produce OOS
results with some probability
• A process must be Stable and Predictable (in a state of
statistical control) to use capability measures.
USL x x LSL
Cpk min , Ppk
3s 3s
Process Capability
• Assumes normality, stability
• at least approximately
• Impacted by number of results used in calculation
• how well are mean and SD estimated from data
• 1-sided lower confidence bound is a better indicator
of process capability
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
-3 -2 -1 ܺത 1 2 3 -3 -2 -1 ܺത 1 2 3
-3 -2 -1 ܺത 1 2 3 -3 -2 -1 ܺത 1 2 3
55
56
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
R S MR
, , , S , S within Sbetween
d 2 c4 d 2
• In this conference pay attention to how the standard
deviation is estimated.
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
200
150
100
50 LSL
Key Messages
• Not just a number!
• Motivate process improvement
• Requires process to be stable and normal
• Critical to look at the confidence interval!
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ISPE Process Validation Conference
12 – 14 September 2017
Bethesda, MD
Questions?
Final thoughts . . .
• FDA (and other regulators) expects companies to
demonstrate that their processes remain in a
validated state throughout the lifecycle
. . . and do so with the use of statistical methods
• Everyone in the company needs to understand
their data (not just statisticians), the risks
assumed, the interpretation of results
. . . know when you can do it yourself and when you
need a professional statistician’s help
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