Polar Bear

WWF WILDLIFE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES

This assessment is one in a series
resulting from a WWF study that assesses
the vulnerability of numerous species to
the effects of climate change. For each
species, we also recommend climate-
adaptive management strategies.

POLAR BEARS (Ursus maritimus) are the

poster child for the impacts of climate
change on species, and justifiably so. To
date, global warming has been most
pronounced in the Arctic, and this trend
is projected to continue.
Polar bears have relatively high genetic
diversity within the species, and can
disperse over very long distances,
suggesting that they may have some
capacity to adapt to the ongoing changes
in the Arctic. The impacts of global
warming will vary among subpopulations,
and some individuals might be able
to compensate for the loss of ice-
dependent seals by eating other prey.
However, their dependence on sea ice
does make them highly vulnerable to a
changing climate. Polar bears rely almost
entirely on the sea ice environment
for traveling, hunting, mating, resting,
and in some areas, maternal dens. In
particular, they depend heavily on sea
ice-dependent prey, such as ringed and DETERMINING SPECIES VULNERABILITY
bearded seals. Additionally, their long The study identified the key vulnerabilities of a species
generation time and low reproductive based on four factors:
rate may limit their ability to adapt to SENSITIVITY: the inability of the species to persist,
changes in the environment. as is, under changing climatic conditions. To assess
Priorities for climate-informed polar bear sensitivity, we looked at IUCN Red List status,
geographic range, population size, temperature
conservation should include identifying
tolerance, reliance on environmental cues (for
and protecting the “last ice areas,” the reproduction, migration, hibernation), symbiotic
parts of the Arctic that are projected to Polar bear range interactions, diet, abundance of food sources,
retain sea ice farthest into the future. It is freshwater requirements, habitat specialization and susceptibility to disease.
also important to increase monitoring of ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: the ability of the species to respond to changes in climate.
polar bear populations, particularly their To assess adaptive capacity, we looked at dispersal ability, generation time,
responses to declining sea ice. As polar reproductive rate and genetic variation.
bears spend more time on land, we need EXPOSURE: the extent of climatic change and variation that the species encounters
a better understanding of the drivers of and is projected to encounter.
human-polar bear conflict.
OTHER THREATS: any other relevant threats, such as habitat destruction, poaching,
human-wildlife conflict and pollution, as well as the human responses to climate
change that exacerbate these threats.
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY OF THE POLAR BEAR
Vulnerability Levels: H = High M = Medium L = Low U = Unknown

SENSITIVITY M Does the species rely on H Habitat Specialization

environmental cues for hibernation? Specialist. They rely almost entirely on the
M IUCN Red List Status No. They don’t hibernate, but pregnant sea ice environment1 for traveling, hunting,
Vulnerable1 females occupy snow dens for 5-6 months,1 mating, resting, and in some areas, maternal
while fasting.5 During this time they exhibit a dens.5 They are most abundant in shallow
Geographic Range reduced metabolic rate and a drop in core water areas near shore,1 or near the highly
M Medium. Found throughout the ice- body temperature.3 During the summer, productive sea ice areas over the continental
covered waters of the Arctic (from 51°N to bears exhibit moderate declines in activity shelves.15 When sea ice retreats north in the
the North Pole), with their range limited by and body temperature, due to limited access summer, polar bears either follow the ice,
the southern extent of sea ice (Hudson Bay, to food.3 or go on land until the sea ice returns.5 Over
Canada).1 Range countries include Canada, most of their range, they remain on the sea
Greenland (Denmark), Norway, Russia, and M Does the species have any strong ice year-round; however, they are spending
the USA.1 or symbiotic relationships with other increasing amounts of time on land in the
species? summer due to declining sea ice.1 Even
M Population Size No. However, polar bears and ringed seals those that stay on land for longer periods
Medium. 20,000-25,000 individuals found in (their primary prey) are intimately connected still depend on the sea ice for hunting.5 Seal
19 subpopulations. As of 2014, 3 populations ecologically.8 species are also heavily dependent on sea ice.
are declining, 6 are stable, 1 is increasing,
and 9 are data deficient.2 M Diet L Susceptibility to Disease
Generalist. They prey mostly on ringed and Low. Polar bears are currently not very prone
M Temperature Tolerance bearded seals,9 but they are opportunistic to disease, though there are some known
Medium. They lose over 10 times more predators, and occasionally feed on other parasitic (e.g., Trichinella sp.)16 and viral (e.g.,
heat than they produce when they are seals, belugas, narwhals, walrus, birds, bird morbilliviruses)17 infections. As they spend
wet,3 and young bears in particular are eggs, fish, animal carcasses,5 kelp, food, more time on land, extended periods in close
more susceptible in water close to freezing waste from human settlements, and even proximity to other polar bears may increase
temperatures.4 Susceptible to heat stress other polar bears in a few instances.10 Some their susceptibility to disease.
due to their low surface-area-to-volume ratio. subpopulations and individuals appear to be
However, they do appear to thermoregulate more capable of feeding on alternative prey
effectively during the summer months,3 than others.9 A 200 kg bear needs 2 kg of ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
resting on snow to stay cool. blubber per day.11 Polar bears feed intensively
M Dispersal Ability
on seals for a brief period in the spring during
H Does the species rely on the seal pupping season, replenishing fat Medium. Wide-ranging and highly mobile
environmental cues for reproduction? reserves used up during the winter.5 Pregnant animals, though their movement is largely
Yes. Breeding occurs from March to May, with females may not have fed for up to 8-9 dictated by sea ice dynamics.5 Males are
births occurring from November to January.1 months at this point.12 known to wander over vast distances; females
The fertilized egg attaches and begins are more restricted, as they den once every 3
development sometime between September M Abundance of Food Source years to give birth. On average, the range of
and October (delayed implantation), and Medium. Individuals that have continuous female polar bears is 125,100 km2,18 but it can
females give birth to cubs between late access to sea ice are able to hunt throughout be as great as 600,000 km2.19 Polar bears can
November and early January.5 Females show the year, but those in areas where sea ice swim long distances, but can drown if they
high fidelity to denning sites (usually on land), melts completely each summer are forced have to swim too far.20
the distribution of which is changing as sea to fast on land using stored fat reserves.1
H Generation Time
ice decreases.5 As a result, females are now Foraging opportunities on land are limited,
expending more energy reaching denning and it is thus unlikely that bears can replace Long. Approximately 15 years.21 Age at first
sites when sea ice forms late, thus affecting lost access to marine mammals with land- reproduction is 5-6 years.1 The maximum
their fitness and denning success.6 When sea based prey.13 The highest hunting success is lifespan on record is about 30 years.5
ice breaks up early, females emerging with between April and July, when ringed seals use
H Reproductive Rate
cubs may be forced to spend the summer the ice for rearing pups and molting.14 Seal
Low. Litter size is 1 to 2 cubs, most often 2,
on land, where food is scarce. populations may experience rapid decline
and occasionally 3.1,5 Females typically keep
due to declining sea ice.
H Does the species rely on offspring for 2.5 years, and therefore breed
environmental cues for migration? L Freshwater Requirements every third year.5 Cub mortality rates can be
Yes. The timing of migration is linked to Low. They rarely drink freshwater, but rely as high as two-thirds.5 If the body mass of a
seasonal sea ice dynamics, and the bears who instead on the water they produce as a female drops below 189 kg, she will be unable
spend the summers on land have already been byproduct of fat metabolism from their diet. to reproduce successfully.22
documented arriving earlier, and departing
continued on page 4
later, in response to changes in sea ice.7
continued from page 3

M Genetic Variation RECOMMENDED CLIMATE-ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Medium. Polar bears have relatively high Based on the vulnerability assessment, we recommend these climate-adaptive management
genetic diversity within the species. Genetic strategies for polar bears:
data suggest that populations are divided into
four clusters (Eastern Polar Basin, Western 1. Identify and protect key areas which might remain viable for polar bears in the long term.
Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago, and This includes seasonal habitat areas and suitable sites for denning. Efforts should focus on
Southern Canada). There is evidence of gene regions that are projected to retain ice habitat farther into the future than other areas. The
flow within the last 1-3 generations toward the “last ice area” is projected to remain in northeastern parts of the Canadian Archipelago and
Canadian archipelago and Western Polar Basin, northern Greenland,26 and adjacent parts of the polar basin.27
possible climate refugia for polar bears.23
2. Increase monitoring of population range shifts, changes in phenology, changes in
population abundance, changes in behavior, and the correlation of any of these with
EXPOSURE changes in weather and climate. Different subpopulations may respond in different
ways, and it is important to better understand this.20
M What degree of climate variability
is the species currently exposed to? 3. Monitor population differences in response to sea ice loss in particular. These could include
Medium. Over the past hundreds of • Spending more time on shore vs. ice.
millennia, polar bears have been exposed
to temperatures higher than those they
• Differences in survival and condition.
presently experience, and also to extreme • Changes in prey abundance, notably ice-dependent seal species.
periods of cooling,5 but there hasn’t been • Prey switching.
an ice-free Arctic in the last 800,000 years.24
There has been substantial warming in the 4. Increase efforts to conserve polar bear prey, to maximize the chances that polar bears will
Arctic over the last 50 years. From 1979 have continued access to their natural prey base.
to 2012, annual sea ice area in the Arctic
5. Increase the extent of protected areas to include stepping stones, movement corridors,
has decreased 3.5%-4.1% per decade, and
and climate refugia.28 Consider mobile protected areas, which shift depending on sea-ice
summer minimum sea ice area has decreased
coverage at any given time.
by 11.5% per decade.25
6. Monitor disease. This becomes increasingly important as polar bears spend more time
H What level of change in on land and are exposed to new pathogens.
temperature and precipitation is
7. Reduce pressures from other threats, many of which are likely to be exacerbated by
projected across the species’ range?
climate change, through increasing the capacity of humans to manage the effects of
High. Warming is projected to be highest in
the Arctic, well above that of the projected climate change. Examples include
global average. There will be further thinning • Reduce human-polar bear conflict. As polar bears spend more time on land, we
and retreat of Arctic sea ice, and a nearly ice- need a better understanding of the drivers of human-polar bear conflict. Community
free Arctic in the summer (September) is likely monitoring and reporting could be a useful tool here.
before mid-century.25
• Monitor the effects of increasing human activity in the Arctic, including the effects of
shipping, resource exploration and extraction, and ecotourism disturbance.
OTHER THREATS • Minimize habitat loss and fragmentation, particularly in critical polar bear habitat
M Other Threats (e.g., denning areas, migration routes, and feeding areas).
Medium. Environmental toxins (e.g., • Monitor trends (such as an increase in poaching) that might indicate that
persistent organic pollutants), shipping, communities facing increased hardships are turning to methods of earning income
tourism, oil and gas exploration and that adversely affect polar bears and other wildlife.
development, over-harvesting, and poaching • Help people adapt to the changing climate by promoting alternative livelihoods that
(particularly in Russia). Longer ice-free
conserve ecosystem services and do not negatively impact polar bears.
seasons could increase shipping activity,
resource exploration, and development. • Monitor changes in polar bear subpopulation numbers, determine how those
Additionally, an increase in the number of changes might affect current hunting quotas, and ensure that the quotas do not
polar bears occurring near or on land has exceed sustainable harvest of the populations.
resulted in increased human-wildlife conflict,
Support for this study was provided by a generous grant from the General Motors Foundation.
and given hunters easier access to bears.5 For more information, please contact Nikhil Advani at [Link]@[Link]
For this and other species assessments, visit [Link]/wildlife-and-climate.
Acknowledgments: Abigail Hehmeyer, Femke Koopmans, Elisabeth Kruger, Brandon LaForest, Shaun Martin, and Gert Polet (all of WWF). All Photos: © Florian Schulz/[Link]. References: 1. Schliebe S et al. (IUCN SSC Polar Bear
Specialist Group), 2008. Ursus maritimus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2008: e.T22823A9391171. 2. IUCN SSC Polar bear specialist group. 3. Whiteman J et al., 2015. Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar
bears limited energy savings. Science 349 (6245): 295-298. 4. Blix A & Lentfer J, 1979. Modes of thermal protection in polar bear cubs - at birth and on emergence from the den. Am. J. Physiol. 236: 67-74. 5. . Wiig O et al., 2008. Effects of climate
change on polar bears. Science Progress 91(2): 151-173. 6. Stirling I & Derocher A, 2012. Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence. Global Change Biology 18(9): 2694-2706. 7. Cherry S et al., 2013. Migration phenology
and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology 82: 912-921. 8. Stirling I, 2002. Polar bears and seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf: a synthesis of population trends
and ecological relationships over three decades. Arctic 55(Supplement) 1: 59-76. 9. Thiemann G et al., 2008. Polar bear diets and Arctic marine food webs: Insights from fatty acid analysis. Ecological Monographs 78(4): 591-613. 10. Amstrup S
et al., 2006. Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Polar Biol. 29: 997-1002. 11. Best R, 1985. Digestibility of ringed seals by the polar bear. Can. J. Zool. 63: 1022-1036.
12. Derocher A & Stirling I, 1992. The population dynamics of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. In Wildlife 2001: Populations, pp. 1150 – 1159. Elsevier, London. 13. Rode K et al., 2015. Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-
based hunting opportunities? Front. Ecol. Environ. 13(3): 138-145. 14. Amstrup S, 2003. In Wild Mammals of North America: Biology, Management, and Conservation, pp. 587-610. The Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, Baltimore, ed. 2. 15. Oakley K
et al., 2015. Changing Arctic Ecosystems. U.S. Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, Alaska 99508. 16. [Link] 17. Tryland M et al., 2005. Serologic survey for selected
virus infections in polar bears at Svalbard. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 41(2): 310-316. 18. Ferguson S et al., 1999. Determinants of home range size for polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Ecology Letters 2: 311-318. 19. Amstrup S et al., 2000.
Movements and distribution of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Canadian Journal of Zoology 78(6): 948-966. 20. U.S. Fish and Wildlife. 2015. Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Conservation Management Plan, Draft. U.S. Fish and Wildlife, Region 7,
Anchorage, Alaska. 59 pp. 21. Pacifici M et al., 2013. Generation length for mammals. Nature Conservation 5: 87-94. 22. Derocher A et al., 1992. Pregnancy rates and serum progesterone levels of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. Canadian
Journal of Zoology 70(3): 561-566. 23. Peacock E et al., 2015. Implications of the Circumpolar Genetic Structure of Polar Bears for Their Conservation in a Rapidly Warming Arctic. PLoS ONE 10(1): e112021. 24. Overpeck, J et al., 2005. Arctic
system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice-free state. Eos Trans. AGU 86(34): 309-313. 25. Stocker T et al., 2013: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 26. [Link] 27. Durner G et al., 2009.
Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Ecol. Monog. 79: 25–58. 28. Mawdsley J et al., 2009. A review of climate-change adaptation strategies for wildlife management and biodiversity conservation.
Conservation Biology 23(5): 1080-1089. © 2015 WWF. All rights reserved by World Wildlife Fund, Inc. 10-15
Citation: A: Advani, NK, 2015. WWF Wildlife and Climate Change Series: Polar bear. World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC.